The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 41: Hurricanes at Capitals, April 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take to the ice again on Thursday night to host the Carolina Hurricanes in the last meeting between the clubs this season.

The teams met just nine days ago, the Caps winning in Raleigh by a 5-3 margin.  The win started the Caps’ five-game winning streak that they take into this game, while the Hurricanes might view the loss as just one more chapter in a horror story of Stephen King proportions.  When these two teams met nine days ago, Carolina was in the midst of gruesome 1-7-1 stretch that saw them fall out of first place in the Southeast Division into tenth place in the Eastern Conference.

After the Caps’ 5-3 win on that night, things have just gotten worse for Carolina.  The Hurricanes are 0-4-0 since facing the Caps nine days ago, making them 1-12-1 over their last 14 games.  And it is not as if the Hurricanes are losing close.  In the four losses since losing to the Caps at home, Carolina has been outscored, 20-6, three of the losses by three or more goals.  Only a 5-3 loss to Pittsburgh in the Hurricanes’ last game on Tuesday ended in almost respectable fashion.

In those four games there is no Carolina player with more than one goal, and there is no player with a last name other than “Staal” with as many as two points.  The best that can be said is that Carolina has spread small portions of scoring across the roster.  Six different players have one goal apiece in the four games, and eight players have recorded points.

In case you are wondering, former Capital Alexander Semin has neither a goal nor an assist in any of those four games.  Part of that is the fact that Semin missed two of those games to an “upper body injury.”

Special teams have been a sore spot for the Hurricanes.  Since they lost to the Caps last week, Carolina is just 1-for-11 on the power play (9.1 percent).  In fact, their two power play goals against the Caps on April 2^nd is something of a high point.  It is the only time the Hurricanes recorded two power play goals in a game since February 12^th, a total span of 27 games over which Carolina is 9-for-88 (10.2 percent).

Penalty killing has not been bad over the last four games – 8-for-10 (80.0 percent) – but it has hardly been enough to offset the poor performance on the other side of special teams.

Carolina is a team in free fall.  In their 1-12-1 stretch they have lost eight games by three or more goals.  They have been held to one or no goals eight times, all losses.

Here is how the teams compare across the board…

1.  The brothers Staal – Eric and Jordan – have one goal between them over their last six games.  Together they account for 25 of the 102 goals scored by Carolina this season.

2.  Only one defenseman – Jay Harrison – has played in all 39 games this season.  In fact, among the other defensemen for the Hurricanes, only Tim Gleason has played in as many as 33 games, and only four defensemen have played in as many as 30 games for Carolina this season.

3.  Carolina struggles late in games.  Although the 36 third period goals they have scored is a respectable number, tied for 13^th in the league, the 49 third period goals allowed is exceeded only by the New York Islanders (51).

4.  When more than a third of the games you have played have ended in losses by three or more goals, you are going to struggle.  That is Carolina – 14 losses by three or more goals in 39 games.

5.  Conversely, no team has played in fewer one-goal games than the Hurricanes, and it is not close.  Carolina has only eight one-goal decisions this season (4-2-2).  Pittsburgh has the second fewest (13).

1.  Notes from the five-game winning streak… Goals leaders: Ovechkin (7), Green (3)… Assists leaders: Backstrom (9), Johansson (5)… Points leaders: Ovechkin (9), Backstrom (9)

2.  If the Caps had starts like their finishes, we might not be talking about “maybe” making the playoffs.  The Caps have only 30 first period goals in 40 games (16^th in the league).  But their second periods (44/T-3^rd) and third periods (41/T-5^th) have been hard on opposing defenses.

3.  The Caps are 9-1-1 in their last 11 games.  Five of the nine wins were by one-goal.  That has allowed them to climb to tie for sixth in one-goal wins this season.

4.  Scoring first still does not matter much for the Capitals.  Their 13-8-1 record when scoring the game’s first goal is tied with Detroit for the sixth worst winning percentage in the league.

5.  The Caps remain one of two teams in the league that have not yet lost in the freestyle competition.  Both Washington and Pittsburgh are 3-0 in the Gimmick.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Dan Ellis/Justin Peters

It would be a bit trite to say that if Carolina has any glimmer of hope for a playoff spot, that leaders have to lead.  But the cold hard fact is, they have to stop the leakage in their own end.  And that starts with the goaltenders.  In the month of April, Carolina goaltenders have a save percentage of .858.  Overall, Peters ranks 47^th among 51 qualifying goalies in goals against average (3.12); Ellis is right behind him at 48^th  (3.19).  Ellis is tied for 37^th in save percentage (.902); Peters is tied for 42^nd (.899).  Everyone on that team can do more, but it is going to have to start in goal.

Washington: Mike Ribeiro

Since the trading deadline, Mike Ribeiro is 1-2-3, minus-1, in four games.  That’s not bad, but it is not what made him arguably the Caps’ most valuable player over the first half of the season.  Ribeiro does not have what one would call “pure finishers” on his second line – he started Tuesday’s game against Montreal with Troy Brouwer and Wojtek Wolski on his wings – but that just means he has to be more creative as a playmaker and a scorer.  He is, after all, the one in the contract year.  More important to the present, he is going to have to be productive to take pressure off the top line to be “on” every night.  He is 4-11-15, minus-6, in 24 career games against Carolina.

Keys:

1.  Jump on ‘em early.  Carolina has a goal differential of minus-9 in the first period, and this team has not had nearly enough offense in the last month to be a come-from-behind team.

2.  Volume, Volume, Volume.  The Caps have had trouble with shot volumes allowed this season, but Carolina has had problems on steroids.  Seven times in the last 12 games the Hurricanes allowed 35 or more shots on goal.  If they do that against this offense, it could be ugly for the visitors.

3. Make hay….  The weather is nice and sunny, the trees are blooming.  This might look like an easy game, but Carolina has managed 16 wins.  The Caps have to make hay while the sun shines in DC…and that takes hard work.

In the end…

The temptation for fans is to think that this is an easy game against a struggling team.  But Carolina still has the brothers Staal, still has Alexander Semin, and still has Jiri Tlusty, who if you do not remember recorded a hat trick against the Caps the last time these teams met.  Take this game for granted, and it could be an opportunity wasted.

Capitals 5 – Hurricanes 2

A night in the life of Michal Neuvirth

Effective as it might be, the NHL rules frown on adjusting the positioning of nets to aid goaltenders in defending shots.

Infield fly rule is in effect!

Ju-u-u-u-u-u-ust a bit outside...

Photos: The Canadian Press, Paul Chiasson

A TWO-point night -- Game 40: Capitals 3 - Canadiens 2

One game does not make a trend, but for last night the hockey intelligentsia could not dismiss the recent record of the Washington Capitals as being the product of beating up a collection of patsies.  No, last night the Capitals spotted the Montreal Canadiens a goal at Bell Centre, then scored three unanswered goals before allowing a late tally in what would be an impressive 3-2 win over the Northeast Division leading Canadiens.

The win was the Caps ninth in their last 11 games (9-1-1), allowing them to maintain their two point lead over the Winnipeg Jets in the Southeast Division. 

It looked as if it might be a frustrating night for the Caps as they dominated the early going, outshooting the Canadiens by a 9-0 margin in the first six minutes, but not having anything to show for it.  The frustration was compounded late in the first period when it was the home team that scored first on a play that featured the Canadiens’ speed.  Alex Galchenyuk took a feed at the Montreal blue line and sped up the left wing.  At the Capitals’ line he darted to the middle past defenseman John Carlson and in on goalie Michal Neuvirth.  The puck slid off Galchenyuk’s stick to the end wall, but Brandon Prust was there to backhand the puck in front to Lars Eller coming late down the middle.  Eller stuffed the puck past Neuvirth with Troy Brouwer standing a stick length away (but watching the play behind the net), and the Canadiens had a 1-0 lead that they took to the first intermission.

It was the Caps, though, who would turn the game around in less than two minutes in the first half of the second period.  The first one came on an old formula made new.  Nicklas Backstrom skated the puck out of the Capitals’ end, feeding John Carlson at the red line.  Carlson skated down the middle, then flipped a backhand pass to Alex Ovechkin at the Montreal blue line.  Ovechkin cut to the middle from the right wing, then wrong-footed a wrist shot that beat goalie Carey Price for the tying goal 7:50 into the period.

The Caps took the lead less than two minutes later on a play that was equal amounts hard work and good bounces.  The Caps were throwing pucks in the general vicinity of the Canadiens’ net – first Jason Chimera, then Steve Oleksy – but the pucks were sliding through with no damage done.  However, the Caps were able to maintain control of the puck in the Montreal zone where it came to rest on the stick of Jack Hillen.  The Caps’ defenseman wristed what seemed like a harmless shot at the Montreal net.  Eric Fehr nicked the puck with his stick as the puck was sailing by, and it hit Price in the chest… then his right arm… then tumbled over his back… then off his left skate… and in.  The Caps had a lead they would not relinquish.

Hillen got his own goal – his first with the Caps – in the third period on what was a case of “if at first you don’t succeed, try, try, again.”  Well, “try” once more, anyway.  Hillen fired a puck from the top of the zone with a clot of bodies in front of him, hoping to find a hole. The puck hit Nicklas Backstrom in front without getting through.  Marcus Johansson managed to return the puck to Hillen, who fired again.  This time the puck found its mark, sailing all the way through and past Price before the goalie had a chance to find it through the maze in front of him.  The Caps had a 3-1 lead 5:33 into the final period.

The Caps clamped down from there, allowing few opportunities over the next ten minutes, but Montreal did halve the deficit with less than four minutes left when Eller scored his second goal of the game on a deflection of a Nathan Beaulieu shot from the left point.  That was as close as the Canadiens would get, and the Caps skated off with a win against a team that was certainly no palooka, 3-2.

Other stuff…

-- If you are counting – and if you are a Caps fan, you are – Alex Ovechkin’s goal in the second period makes six in his last three games, ten in his last seven, and 16 goals in his last 13 games.  That would be a 101-goal pace over 82 games.  Steven who?

-- And while you are sitting there counting things, Nicklas Backstrom’s two assists make 11 helpers in his last five games and 17 in his last 13 games.  That would be a 107-assist pace. 

-- Hey, hey!  We’re not done yet.  Marcus Johansson recorded an assist on the Hillen goal, making him 1-7-8 over his last six games, 2-11-13 over his last 11 games, and 4-12-16 over his last 14 games.  That works out to a 23-70-93 pace over 82 games.

-- Steve Oleksy had an assist, too.  This might not be a news-maker, although he did end a seven-game streak without a point, but it makes six assists for the in-season call-up from Hershey.  That ties him for third on the team behind only Mike Green and John Carlson.  And, his plus-7 trails only Nicklas Backstrom and Eric Fehr (both at plus-8) for the team lead, despite playing in only 20 games this season for the Caps.

-- A goal and an assist for Jack Hillen makes two straight multi-point games, the first time in his career he accomplished that feat.  The power of new babies!

-- Here is a odd number (in more than one way)… “five.”  The Caps won only five offensive zone faceoffs all night (5-for-18; 27.8 percent).

-- It is not often that Ovechkin, as big a hitter as he is, will have more than twice as many hits as shot attempts, but there it was.  He had eight hits for the night, three shot attempts (two on goal, one in the net).

-- Wolski sighting!  Wojtek Wolski got a sweater.  This in itself was an achievement since he has played in only three games since March 12^th.  But, eight shifts was his low for the year.  He had one shot attempt (miss) and one hit to go on his scoresheet.

-- The Caps were credited with more blocked shots (34) than the Canadiens had shots on goal (29).  The “Johns” – Erskine and Carlson – had almost half of them, splitting 14 blocked shots evenly between them.

-- We said in the prognosto that… 

"At this point, the only hope the Caps seem to have to keep from being scored on when on the penalty kill is to stay out of the box entirely.  And Montreal has the league’s seventh best power play at home.  If the Caps have more than three shorthanded situations to face tonight, it would not seem that this game would end well for the visitors."

The Canadiens had one inconsequential power play opportunity, that to start the second period.

-- The Caps had good balance on their shots on goal.  Finishing the game with 27 is not a high total, but 13 skaters hit the score sheet, and none had more than three. 

-- It might not be in time to restart a goalie controversy, but Michal Neuvirth has turned in two solid performances in a row since he spent three weeks on the shelf.  With 27 saves on 29 shots, that makes 55 saves on 59 shots in two games, a .932 save percentage.

-- Speaking of which, in their last four games in Bell Centre, Capitals goalies stopped 106 of 108 shots.  That is a .981 save percentage... a drop from what it was coming into this game (1.000).

In the end…

The Caps are 10-2-1 in their last 13 games now.  Yeah, they beat a lot of also-rans along the way, but it is also true that they are 7-0-1 in their last eight road games, and that includes wins in Madison Square Garden, and now Bell Centre.  These are not easy places for visitors to grab two points.  The five-game winning streak extends their season’s longest such streak, and it is the Caps’ longest winning streak since opening the 2011-2012 season with a seven-game run. 

There is yet a minefield to navigate over the last eight games of the regular season with games against Toronto, Boston, twice against Ottawa, and a return trip to Bell Centre.  But the Caps have put themselves in a position to win the Southeast and a third-seed for the playoffs.  It is something they earned by knocking down the teams in front of them, whether they are woeful or wonderful.  Two points is two points, and this isn’t the Beauty Contest System of college football where teams are ranked, in part, based on strength of schedule. 

Still, this was a quality win against a quality opponent.  Attention should be paid.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 40: Capitals at Canadiens, April 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take their show on the road on Tuesday night, heading to Bell Centre to face the Montreal Canadiens in what promises to be a stern test with the potential to validate the Caps as a playoff contender or a wannabe that has risen through the standings on the hot air of weak clubs. 

The Caps are 8-1-1 in their last ten games, the best ten-game record in the East at the moment.  However, if you look at those ten games and the Caps’ opponents in them, at the times they faced the Caps they had a collective 49.1 percent of available standings points earned.  Put another way, this was a rather mediocre group of opponents. 

But now, the Caps face a team in the Canadiens that, with their 25-8-5 record, have earned 72.4 percent of the standings points available to them over 38 games. Only four teams in the league have lost fewer games at home than the four lost by Montreal at Bell Centre.  The Canadiens will be the most formidable opponent that the Caps have faced since they visited Pittsburgh on March 19^th, the Caps’ last game before this 8-1-1 run (they lost to the Penguins, 2-1).

Montreal is on a run of their own, going 5-1-0 in their last six games.  In those half dozen games the Habs outscored their opponents, 21-13, but what set the Canadiens apart in those games was the play of their special teams.  Montreal was 6-for-17 on the power play (35.3 percent) and 16-for-17 on the penalty kill (94.1 percent).  They have killed off their last 14 shorthanded situations.

Montreal has spread the points around – 17 different skaters have points – but the goal scoring has been dominated by Michael Ryder.  The nine-year veteran has six goals in the 5-1-0 run for the Habs, and he has ten goals in 18 games since being traded with a third round draft pick to Montreal from Dallas for Erik Cole.

P.K. Subban has been the playmaker of note over this stretch.  In the same six games Subban has nine assists and a goal to lead Montreal in overall scoring with ten points.  The hot streak has catapulted Subban to the top of the scoring heap among the league’s defensemen with 32 points, three more than Minnesota’s Ryan Suter.

Carey Price has received the bulk of the work in the recent stretch of games, and it seems as if he might be bumping his game up a notch or two.  The 5-1-0 run started with a 6-5 Gimmick win over Boston on March 27^th.  In that game Price lasted 40 minutes, giving up four goals on 26 shots, giving way in the third period to backup Peter Budaj with the Canadiens behind, 4-2.  They rallied to win that game, and it might have served as a wake-up call for Price.  In four appearances since he is 3-1-0, 1.50, .947, with one shutout.  Price is 4-6-3 in 13 career appearances against the Caps with a 2.95 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage.  That includes a 30-save effort in a 4-1 Montreal win over Washington back on January 24^th.

Here is how the teams compare in their overall numbers to date…

1.  In 38 games this season the Canadiens have allowed only 16 first period goals, far fewer than any team in the East (Toronto is second with 22 goals allowed).  Overall, no team in the league has allowed fewer goals at 5-on-5 than the Canadiens.

2.  Montreal is on a sustained run of success on its power play.  Over their last 22 games the Canadiens are 21-for-72 with the man advantage (26.9 percent).  In only six games did they fail to record a power play goal.  Over those 22 games the Canadiens are 12-1-3 when scoring at least one power play goal, 2-3-1 when they failing to do so.

3.  Only three teams have committed more minor infractions than Montreal.  There would appear to be a lot of coincidental minors in there since the Canadiens have only the 14^th highest number of shorthanded situations faced.

4.  Speaking of shorthanded situations faced, the Canadiens are one of only two teams remaining that has not yet scored a shorthanded goal (Tampa Bay is the other).

5.  No team has scored the game’s first goal more often than the Canadiens.  Montreal had done so 26 times in 38 games so far and has a record of 19-4-3 in those games.

1.  The Caps are 9-2-1 in their last dozen games.  They have outscored their opponents by a 42-28 margin over those games (not including trick shots).  They have been fueled in large part by their power play, which is 12-for-45 (26.7 percent) over those dozen games.  They are 7-1-1 in games in which they scored at least one power play goal.

2.  Penalty killing has been another story over those same dozen games.  The Caps are 25-for-34 (73.5 percent) defending power plays.  Nevertheless, the Caps are 6-1-1 in games in which they allowed at least one power play goal. 

3.   Of the nine wins in their last dozen games the Caps have five wins by two or more goals and have seven games in which they scored four or more goals.

4.  The Caps were outshot eight times in those last dozen games and still had a record of 5-2-1 in those games.

5.  Over their 9-2-1 run the Caps are shooting at a 12.8 percent  success rate.  By way of comparison, the league-wide average through games of last night is 9.2 percent overall.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Andrei Markov

Andrei Markov has had to battle through injuries the past few seasons, playing in only 65 of 246 regular season games over the three seasons before this one.  But Markov is one of seven Montrealers to appear in all 38 games this season.  He has a solid 7-17-24 scoring line to show for it, and he leads the team in ice time.  Of note to Caps fans, though, it the fact that Markov seems to save some of his best efforts for contests against Washington.  In 33 career games against the Caps he is 1-18-19, plus-14.  His goal and 11 of those assists have come on power plays, and he even has a shorthanded assist to boot.  P.K. Subban gets the press on the blue line, but Markov might be the one to watch out for in this game.

Washington: Jason Chimera

With the Caps suffering a save of injuries on the left wing, it is getting to be time for Jason Chimera to be heard from with more authority.  He has one point in his last ten games after scoring his first – and only – goal of the season on St. Patrick’s Day against Buffalo.  He has recorded no shots on goal in four of the last eight games in which he played, part of that being a product of his ice time being cut to under 12 minutes a game over those last ten contests.  This is not necessarily the best team against which Chimera can break out of his slump. He is 2-3-5, plus-4 in 17 career games against Montreal, but the Caps need to show some life on the left side with Brooks Laich and Martin Erat out.  Chimera is the leading candidate to contribute some secondary scoring from that side.

Keys:

1.  Don’t fall behind.  Montreal is a team that operates according to a comfort level it sets in the first period of games.  They have outscored teams, 34-16, in the first period, then strangled the life out of them over the last 40 minutes.  The Caps need to avoid that pattern, which could also take the rabid Canadiens crowd out of the game.

2.  Play outside the box.  At this point, the only hope the Caps seem to have to keep from being scored on when on the penalty kill is to stay out of the box entirely.  And Montreal has the league’s seventh best power play at home.  If the Caps have more than three shorthanded situations to face tonight, it would not seem that this game would end well for the visitors.

3.  Pressure.  Carey Price is 13^th among qualifying NHL goalies in goals against average.  He is tied for 19^th in save percentage.  The difference?  He faces fewer than 27 shots per game.  The Caps average barely that amount (27.6) and are being outshot by four shots per game.  The Caps need to turn those numbers around against Price.

In the end, this amounts to something of an “off-Broadway” playoff performance, an opportunity to see what the players do with the script against a real live playoff-caliber team without the pressure of the seven game series.  It is unlikely that the Caps would face Montreal in the first round, but they might face them along the way.  Too much can be made of one game, even in a playoff race, but this will be a chance to see if the Caps are more contender than pretender.

Capitals 3 - Canadiens 2

Washington Capitals -- That Was The Week That Was: Week 11

Week 11 was the best week of the season thus far for the Washington Capitals. For the Caps to finish the week where they did, it had to be.  It came just in time…

Record: 4-0-0

It was the first perfect record of the season for the Caps, a reflection of the club skating to its first four-game winning streak of the season.  Less than a week ago we asked if the Caps would run out of time in their chase for a playoff spot.  This week we might ask if they can be caught.  Obviously, the answer to the former question is, “no,” since the Caps now occupy the top spot in the Southeast Division and the automatic top three-seed that goes with it.  But before anyone concludes that the answer to the latter is also “no,” remember that this week’s 4-0-0 record was achieved largely at the Southeast Division’s expense.  The Caps beat Carolina, Florida, and Tampa Bay along the way, with the New York Islanders offering a bit of spice from outside the division.  And that game against New York – against what is now just the number-three team in the Atlantic Division – went to the freestyle competition to decide a winner.

Offense: 3.50 (season: 2.92 / rank: 7^th)

It was like a buddy movie this week.  The quiet, deliberate playmaker from Sweden and the brash, demonstrative whirlwind from Russia. Sort of a European version of “Lethal Weapon.”  Certainly, Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin were lethal to opponents this week.  Ovechkin finished 7-2-9 in the four games, while Backstrom was 0-9-9.  The only Ovechkin goal on which Backstrom did not assist was the empty netter Ovechkin scored to finish the week.  And there was Mike Green, too.  His three-goal week vaulted him into a tie for second in goal-scoring among defensemen with eight, behind only Montreal’s P.K. Subban (10).  Marcus Johansson chipped in a pair of multi-point games on his way to a five-assist week.

Defense: 2.25 (season: 2.82 / rank: 20^th)

The key number for the defense this week is this one: “five.”  The Caps allowed only five even strength goals for the week.  This has been an issue for the Caps from time to time this season; the team finished the week still only in a tie for 18^th in fewest 5-on-5 goals allowed.  Part of that was allowing a respectable 6.75 even strength shots on goal in the first period of the four games.  That was a much better number that the average of 12.0 third period even strength shots allowed per game for the week.  Then again, the Caps took leads into the third period in each of the four games, so there is undoubtedly a score effect going on there.

Goaltending: 2.21 / .931 (season: 2.78 / .911 / 4 shutouts)

The goaltending for the Caps was not so much brilliant as workmanlike, and that is meant as a compliment.  Braden Holtby got the call for the first three games of the week, making it 11 straight appearances for Holtby.  He was solid in the first periods of games, especially as the week went on. Overall he had 22 saves on 24 first period shots (.917), but he did stop the last 14 first period shots he faced after a shaky start against Carolina to open the week (two goals on ten shots).  A bit of a slip late in the game against Florida kept Holtby from having a fine week in third periods, too.  In his first two games he stopped 26 of 27 shots in the third period and in the one overtime (against the Islanders).  But he did allow three goals on the last 13 shots he faced in the 4-3 win over the Panthers. 

Holtby got a break to end the week, Michal Neuvirth making his first appearance since being the goalie of record in a 4-1 loss to Boston on March 16^th.  Neuvirth was solid against a good offensive team in the Tampa Bay Lightning, stopping 28 of 30 shots to earn his first win since beating Carolina, 3-2, on March 14^th.

Power Play: 4-12 / 33.3 percent (season: 25.2 percent / rank: 1^st)

The week was a bit deceiving.  On the one hand, 33.3 percent conversion of power play opportunities reflects considerable effectiveness.  On the other hand, three of the four goals for the week came against the worst penalty killers in the league, the Florida Panthers.  Still, you take them where you can get them, and Florida happened to be on the schedule.  Good teams – and good power plays – take advantage of those opportunities to gorge at the all-you-can-score buffet. 

One might have liked to see more shots on the power play, though.  The Caps were 4-for-16 in shooting in 19:49 of power play ice time, including a full five-minute power play against Florida in which they scored one goal on five shots.

Penalty Killing: 6-10 / 60 percent (season: 75.7% / rank: 29^th)

“Achilles’ Heel” is probably an insufficiently large part of the anatomy to describe how weak the Caps’ penalty kill is.  This week the penalty killers (whose adeptness at “killing” seems to extend only to the Caps’ chances of winning games) allowed goals in three of the four games, including twice in games in which they allowed only two power plays (against Florida and Tampa Bay).  We have said before that the best chance for the Caps on the penalty kill is not to have to face shorthanded situations, but three times this week they faced only two such situations and still finished with only a 60.0 percent kill rate.  Four goals on 14 shots in 13:57 of total shorthanded ice time is not going to cut it down the road.

Hits/Blocked Shots: 120 / 65 (season rank: 21^st / 11^th)

Maybe it was the fact that the Caps faced three Southeast Division teams this week, but 120 hits in four games reflects a certain enthusiasm (or generous scoring) that has not been always evident this season.  It more than doubled the previous week’s total (in one more game).

Faceoffs: 124-for-238 / 52.1 percent (season: 50.8 percent / rank: 13^th)

It was good and bad for the Caps in the circle this week.  The good was the 52.8 percent overall mark.  And, they were 39-for-73 in the defensive zone over four games, good for 53.4 percent.  But those offensive zone numbers were a bit grim.  Washington was 30-for-69 in offensive zone faceoffs (43.8 percent) and were held to single digit in wins in three of the four games.  In none of the four games did the Caps reach 50 percent in offensive zone faceoff wins.  Nicklas Backstrom managed to hit the 50 percent mark in offensive zone draws for the week (11-for-22), but the rest of the players taking draws barely reached 40 percent success (40.4 percent).

Turnovers: -11

Part of this might be explained by scoring effects – the Caps were charged with double digit giveaways in their two home games for the week.  But being in double-digit minus territory for two straight weeks suggests that there might be some shoring up to be done, too.

In the end…

It is hard to complain about a 4-0-0 week.  Oh sure, there will be some who say the Caps beat up three palookas in Carolina, Florida, and Tampa Bay.  Well, you can only play the team in front of you, not some theoretical contender that might put up a stiffer challenge.  Two points is two points, whether they come against Florida or against Montreal.  Speaking of the latter, the Caps will get to face the Habs twice in the next six games, not to mention playoff-eligible Toronto and Ottawa.  The Caps are about to move up a weight class or two in competition, making it a good thing that the Caps – the Southeast Division leading Caps – banked eight points this week. 

A TWO-point night -- Game 39: Capitals 4 - Lightning 2

The Washington Capitals put a bit of space between themselves and the competition in the Southeast Division race tonight as they beat the Tampa Bay Lightning, 4-2, at Verizon Center.

The Caps fell behind, not once, but twice, before coming back with three goals over the last 27 minutes to secure the win.  The first time the Caps fell behind came less than two minutes into the game when Vincent Lecavalier redirected a Martin St. Louis feed for a power play goal just seven seconds after Steve Oleksy was sent off on an interference penalty.

That would be how the first period ended, but the Caps tied the game just 3:14 into the second period when Alex Ovechkin moved to the front of the Lightning net, opened the blade of his stick, and redirected a Jack Hillen drive past goalie Ben Bishop.  The tie lasted barely three minutes when Alex Killorn took a lob pass from Lecavalier at the Caps’ blue line, swept around a flatfooted Hillen, and nudged the puck through the five hole of goalie Michal Neuvirth to restore the Lightning one-goal lead.

That would be the sum of Tampa Bay scoring, though.  The Caps would tie the game once more when John Carlson fired a rocket from just inside the Tampa blue line over the glove of Bishop at 12:54 of the period.  Less than four minutes later the Caps took the lead for good when Joel Ward carried the puck down his off wing, rushed around Nate Thompson, and snapped the puck past Bishop with just 3:39 left in the second period.

That would be it for the scoring until the game's last minute when Alex Ovechkin took a pass off the side boards from John Carlson, skated up the right wing, eluded a stick check from Nate Thompson Alex Killorn (who did so from the Tampa Bay bench, making the ensuing goal automatic), glided into the Lightning zone, and sealed the win with an empty net goal for the final 4-2 margin.

Other stuff…

-- The two goals give Ovechkin 25 for the season and tie him with Steven Stamkos for the league lead.  The 25 goals in 39 games works out to a 53-goal pace per 82 games.  More impressive, though, is that Ovechkin has 15 goals over his last 12 games.  That is a 103-goal pace.  In those 12 games there are only two in which he did not score a goal, both against the New York Islanders.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had another assist.  That is nine in his last four games and 16 in his last 14 games (a 94-assist pace for those who keep track of those 82-game pace things).

-- Backstrom was a busy guy… an assist, a penalty, seven shots on goal (tying career high), three hits, and he won 13 of 20 draws.

-- Marcus Johansson had a four game points streak (1-6-7) ended in this game.

-- Jack Hillen had his first multi-point game for the Caps with a pair of assists.  It was his first multi-point game since he had a pair of assists for the Islanders in a 4-3 win over Montreal on February 10, 2011.

-- 16 of 18 skaters for the Caps were credited with hits.  Only Eric Fehr and Marcus Johansson failed to get one.  Fehr sort of got one when he mixed it up with Martin St. Louis on a faceoff.  And no, Marty did not reach up and punch Fehr in the knee.

-- Joel Ward recorded points on consecutive shifts in the second period, assisting on John Carlson’s goal, then scoring one of his own.  His reward?  Taking a shot off his knee in the third period and not returning to the game.  Ah, but he did win first star of the game, though.

-- The Caps allowed a power play goal and did not record one of their own.  This is the first time this season that they won such a game in regulation time (they did so in a 4-3 overtime win against Boston on March 5^th).

-- The Backstrom-Ovechkin-Johansson line had 17 of the 38 shots on goal for the Caps.

-- The Caps had an odd symmetry in the game… 12 even strength shots in each of the first, second, and third periods.

-- Michal Neuvirth played his first game after an 11-game hiatus, and with his making 28 saves on the 30 shots he faced eased his save percentage over the .900 mark for the season (.902).

In the end, the Caps opened up a bit of daylight over the Winnipeg Jets in the Southeast Division, and they still hold a game in hand over the Jets.  They, along with San Jose, have the best last-ten game records in the league (8-1-1).  But now, it gets a bit harder.  The Caps head to Montreal to take on the Canadiens on Tuesday night, and we will get to see if this is just a nice run that the Caps are on or if they are a bona fide playoff threat in the making. 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 39: Lightning at Capitals, April 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Now we are down to it.  Ten games left.  The Washington Capitals hold the thinnest of leads in the Southeast Division, a tie breaker owing to the fact that while they are tied with the Winnipeg Jets with 40 standings points, the Caps reached that mark in fewer games (38) than the Jets (40).  And with those 40 points the Caps do not have enough points to qualify for the top-eight in the Eastern Conference, since the New York Islanders sit in eighth place with 42 points.

That makes this evening’s game against the Tampa Bay Lightning just another in what will undoubtedly be nothing other than a series of important games right through to the end of the regular season.  The Capitals come into this game having faced the Lightning twice so far this season, both times in Florida.  Washington split those games, dropping a 6-3 decision on opening night in January, and then beating Tampa Bay by a 4-3 score on Valentine’s Day.

Tampa Bay comes to Washington stuck in a place they might not have thought they would be after a 6-1-0 start to the season in which they outscored opponents by a 37-18 margin.  Since then, the Lightning are 10-18-2, and they have won consecutive games in regulation time only once.  After a promising couple of games to close the month of March – a 2-1 win over Buffalo and a 5-4 trick shot win over the New Jersey Devils – Tampa Bay started April losing two of three games.  Worse, the Lightning are 1-4-0 over their last five road games, and their lone win came against the slumping Carolina Hurricanes. 

What the Lightning will bring to Washington that the Caps did not face in the two games in Tampa is a new coach.  Jon Cooper stepped behind the Lightning bench in relief of fired coach Guy Boucher on March 29^th.  In the four games played by the Lightning since Cooper took over, Tampa Bay is 2-1-1, splitting a pair of decisions in the freestyle competition – a 5-4 win over New Jersey in Cooper’s debut and a 3-2 loss to Florida on April 2^nd.  Then Tampa Bay split a pair of conventional decisions, a 5-0 win over Carolina and a 4-2 loss to the New York Islanders.

What is unsurprising over those first four games of the Cooper era is that Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis lead the Bolts in scoring.  Stamkos is 2-4-6, and St. Louis is 1-3-4 over those four contests.  But there are a couple of surprises in there, too.  One is that Alex Killorn has a pair of goals and a pair of assists to tie St. Louis in scoring over these four games.  Killorn has put together a respectable rookie season with the Lightning, going 6-10-16, plus-1, in 27 games with Tampa Bay after going 16-22-38, plus-6, in 44 games with Syracuse in the AHL.

The other surprise is not a pleasant one for Lightning fans.  After missing nine games with a broken foot, Vincent Lecavalier returned to the lineup on April 4^th against Carolina.  He has but a single assist in the two games played since his return.  What is more, Lecavalier has only one goal in the last 13 games in which he appeared.

Here is how the two teams stack up, numbers-wise…

1.  In the 21 games from February 16^th through March 29^th, Steven Stamkos recorded 18 goals.  Only six times in those 21 games did he fail to record at least one.  However, he is without a goal in his last three games, his longest streak since going five games without one in early February.

2.  The Lightning sure can light it up late.  Tampa Bay leads the league in third period goals with 54.  That is as many as Florida and the Rangers have scored in the first and second periods combined.  It is more than five teams have scored in the first and third periods combined.

3.  There is little mystery about what sort of game is conducive to a Lightning win.  Tampa Bay has more wins by a three or more goal margin than any team in the league (12).  The Lightning also happen to have the worst record in the league in one-goal games (4-10-2).

4.  And why is that?  Well, Tampa Bay has the best record in the league when leading after one period (13-1-0).  The Lightning have the worst record in the league when trailing after one period (0-10-2).

5.  Only four teams have recorded more fighting majors than the Lightning.  Seven different players have dropped the gloves so far this season with B.J. Crombeen leading the team and tied (with Colton Orr) for the league lead in fighting majors with a dozen.

1.  The Capitals are not a team inclined to resort to violence to settle differences.  Only three teams have fewer fighting majors – Detroit, Carolina, and Edmonton – than Washington (14).

2.  The Caps are not too shabby at scoring third period goals themselves.  Perhaps not as prolific as Tampa Bay, but even with not having scored a third period goal in the 4-3 win over Florida on Saturday night, the Caps are still tied for sixth in total third period goals scored (39).

3.  The good news is that the Caps have won 80 percent of the games they led after two periods.  The bad news is, so what?  22 teams have won at least 80 percent of the games they led after two periods, meaning that there are only eight teams with worse records.

4.  Only four teams in the league have allowed more shots on goal per game than the Caps (31.6/game).  Only Toronto and Edmonton have a worse shots-per-game differential than the Caps (-4.3 shots/game).

5.  On St. Patrick’s Day against the Buffalo Sabres, head coach Adam Oates put Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Marcus Johansson together on the top line for the Caps.  Since then, this trio has 19 of the 37 goals scored by the Caps over 11 games.  Ovechkin is 13-6-19, plus-6.  Backstrom is 3-14-17, plus-7.  Johansson is 3-11-14, plus-8.  As a group they have nine of the 12 power play goals scored by the Caps in that span, Ovechkin recording seven of them.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Ben Bishop

When Tampa Bay acquired Anders Lindback in a trade with the Nashville Predators last June, it was seen as an opportunity for the promising Lindback to step out from behind Pekka Rinne’s shadow in Nashville and take on number one goaltender responsibilities of his own.  It did not go especially well.  Lindback is tied for 39^th among 47 qualifying goaltenders in goals against average (2.88) and is 35^th in save percentage (.903).  Then to top it off, he sustained a high ankle sprain in a loss to Toronto on March 20^th.  The Lightning sought to shore up that problem by obtaining Ben Bishop from Ottawa for forward Cory Conacher and a draft pick.   It was another chance for a goalie to step out on his own in Tampa as a number one netminder.  He certainly looked the part in a 45-save shutout of the Carolina Hurricanes in his first game with the Bolts, but he seemed a bit more mortal in 24-for-27 effort in a 4-2 loss to the New York Islanders on Saturday. If he gets the nod in the second half of the Lightning’s weekend back to back, it will be his second career appearance against Washington.  While with the St. Louis Blues in the 2008-2009 season, Bishop gave up four goals on 29 shots in a 4-2 loss to the Caps.

Washington:  Wojtek Wolski

With the injuries to Brooks Laich and now to Martin Erat, Wojtek Wolski could get a chance to skate on left side of the second line for the Caps.  Wolski has appeared in only six games since March 1^st, going 2-2-4 in those games.  The Caps are going to need something from the left side to provide a scoring threat from somewhere other than the first line.  He has had some success against the Lightning.  He has more career goals against Tampa Bay than any other team in the Eastern Conference (five in 10 career games).

Keys:

1.  Better late than ever.  In the first two meetings between the clubs this season the Lightning broke open what was a 3-3- tie after two periods with a three-goal explosion on opening night to win, 6-3, then in the second meeting of the clubs in February the Lightning came back from a 4-1 third period deficit to make a game of it with a pair of goals before losing, 4-3.  Those kinds of third period swoons are not part of a winning recipe.

2.  Don’t be pecked to death by ducks.  It is not a reference to Anaheim, but to the fact that against a team with the big scorers on the top line in Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis, the Caps cannot let the undercard beat them.  That means keeping the likes of Alex Killorn and Tom Pyatt (each with two goals in four games since Jon Cooper took over as head coach) off the score sheet.

3.  Killing mood.  Only Columbus has fewer power play goals on the road than Tampa Bay.  The Caps cannot be leaky here and expect to win.  Tampa is a very good 5-on-5 team.

In the end…

This is the last back-to-back set of games this season for the Caps.  They are 3-2-2 in the second half of back-to-backs so far this season.  A win here would be especially important for the Caps, since this game burns one of the games in hand the Capitals hold over Winnipeg in the fight for the Southeast Division lead.  It would also put another two points between the Caps and the Lightning in the Southeast, and since Tampa Bay seems to be the only team other than the Caps playing at a competent level (the Lightning are 5-4-1 over their last ten games), those two points could be important down the road.

Capitals 5 – Lightning 3