Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Burnt Ends

In some places in the world, “burnt ends” are a delicacy, the smoky edges of brisket that barbecue aficionados take care to prepare and love to eat.

This is not one of those parts of the world (although they are delicious).  No, burnt ends here in Peerless World are merely those ingredients in the summary of players whose seasons, for whatever reason, are merely “burnt,” and they come at the “end” of this journey that is the player portion of the recap of the 2013 season for the Washington Capitals.

Martin Erat

A lot of Caps fans will not even tell you that this was a good idea gone bad.  When Filip Forsberg was taken with the 11^th overall pick in the 2012 NHL Entry Draft, he was thought of – by the club – as being a prospect worth watching, one that the Caps did not even think would be available at the 11-spot in the first round. 

Fast forward to early-April, and Forsberg had become an expendable commodity.  For whom?  Martin Erat.  A player who toiled for 723 regular season and 46 post-season games with the Nashville Predators, Erat compiled a solid, if unspectacular resume. His career per-82 game scoring line of 18-36-54 was certainly that of a scoring line winger, and one that might have room for more production, given the rather conservative philosophy employed by the Nashville Predators over his tenure there.  One could fathom the rationale for such a trade, moving value for value, trading an uncertain future prospect for a known commodity who could contribute now.  But an 11^th overall pick for a good, if not elite, winger and a minor league forward (Michael Latta)?

As far as Erat’s 2013 season with the Caps is concerned, it did not work out as hoped.  Erat is more than a scorer, but his three points in nine regular season games (1-2-3, plus-1) was disappointing, skating almost exclusively on the second line with Mike Ribeiro and Troy Brouwer.  Part of the problem was recording only nine shots on goal in nine games.  It is a small data set, but only Joey Crabb and Aaron Volpatti recorded fewer shots on goal per game.

He was taken for what amounted to a shakedown cruise on special teams, averaging a little more than a minute per game on both the power play and penalty killing units.  Not much of consequence happened in those special teams assignments, Erat being on ice for one power play goal against in nine games, no goals on the Caps’ power play.

If Erat was a “win now” acquisition, that meant he needed to be heard from in the post-season.  He was not, at least on the offensive side of the puck, where he finished without a point in four games.  However, he did play responsibly in his own end.  The New York Rangers scored no goals against the Caps when he was on the ice, and he had only two recorded giveaways in those four games.

However, the key phrase in that last paragraph is “four games.”  Erat suffered a freakish injury – later revealed to be a dislocated elbow – in the first period of Game 4 against the Rangers when he got tangled up with New York’s Derek Stepan and the Caps’ Alex Ovechkin.  Who knows what might have happened had there been a healthy Erat for the remainder of that game, one the Caps lost 4-3 after being tied, 2-2, after two periods?  Or what might have happened in Game 6, when the Caps could not score against Henrik Lundqvist in a 1-0 Ranger win?

That said, Erat comes to the Caps at a discount.  He will be a $4.5 million cap hit in each of the next two seasons, but he will cost the club only $6.0 million in total salary.  It remains to be seen if there is value in that deal, or it is merely penny-wise and pound foolish – a discount paid for with what was thought to be a large chunk of the team’s future.

Philipp Grubauer

Hey, this NHL goalie thing can’t be too hard, can it?  Come into a game in relief, stop all 14 shots you see in 25 minutes of action.  OK, so it was a lost cause, a 4-1 loss to the Philadelphia Flyers.  Still, that is a team with some weapons – Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds. 

Oh, those three had no third period shots in that game?  Well then, let’s see what you do with a full game’s worth of work against a team that is going to make the playoffs.  Five goals in 59 minutes.  Yeah, it would have been nice if the guys in front could have done something about those 45 shots you had to face in that game against the New York Islanders, but think of it as baptism under fire. 

You did have a pretty nice rookie year in Hershey, though… 15-9-2, 2.25, .919, and two shutouts.  The playoffs, not as much (2-3, 3.79, .901).  Still, not a bad rookie year, kid.

Roman Hamrlik

Down the stretch of the 2011-2012 season and into the playoffs, Roman Hamrlik was a solid defenseman for the Caps, at times arguably their best.  In his last 41 regular season games in 2011-2012 he was 1-11-12, plus-21.  In the playoffs he was 1-3-4, plus-8, and was on ice for only five even strength goals against in 14 games.

Then The Great Lockout of 2012-2013 happened.  First, there were the comments in November in which he said he was “disgusted” with the lockout and wanted the union to put the matter of the league’s proposal to end it to a vote.  That did not sit well with many of his colleagues, but hey, it was the third lockout Hamrlik experienced in his career.  Folks get edgy.

Then Hamrlik got his wish…the season started.  Well, beware what you wish for.  He dressed for the Caps’ first three games of the season, recording an assist and a minus-1 while averaging over 15 minutes a game.  He dressed only once more for the Caps, though, getting 16 minutes of playing time in a 5-2 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins on February 7^th.  Four weeks later, he was waived and claimed by the New York Rangers.  Final line with the Caps: four games, 0-1-1, minus-1.  Not that it got any better with the Rangers:  0-0-0, minus-3 in 12 games, and he dressed for only two post-season games, recording an assist.  After 20 seasons, he would appear to be done.

Brooks Laich

Over a five-year stretch that ended with the 2011-2012 season, Brooks Laich missed a total of four games out of 461 possible games played, regular season and playoffs. 

Then The Great Lockout of 2012-2013 happened.  Laich, like many of his brother players, decided to head off to Europe to play hockey while the league and the union debated the next labor agreement.  Perhaps with no small sense of irony, he hooked up in September with the Kloten Flyers of the Swiss National A League.  That might have been a little too much irony.  Although the whole matter is cloaked in mystery, it seems, Laich suffered some sort of injury during the lockout, probably when he was playing for Kloten, likely in an 8-0 Flyers win over Lugano in November (the word “senseless” comes to mind). 

He returned to North America a few days later, but when the NHL season started in January, Laich could not answer the call.  He would miss two months of the season before making his first appearance on March 19^th against Pittsburgh.  He managed to gut it out for nine games before going on the shelf for the rest of the regular season.  During that hiatus he did or did not have sports hernia surgery.

Laich might have been ready to go in the second round of the post-season, but the Capitals did not make it that far, losing in seven games to the New York Rangers in the first round.  It was a lost season for the veteran completing his ninth year in the NHL.  Nine games, 1-3-4, plus-2, and more penalty minutes (six) than points (four).  A lost season indeed.

Cameron Schilling

It was not as if Cameron Schilling was a complete stranger to Verizon Center ice.  After all, he did play on that ice surface in 2009 when his Miami Redhawks advanced to the NCAA title game, losing in overtime to Boston University.  On March 12^th, Schilling – called up from the Hershey Bears two days earlier – made his NHL debut for the Caps against the Carolina Hurricanes.  For the Caps it was a brutal night, a 4-0 whitewashing at the hands of the Hurricanes.  But for Schilling – in his only appearance for the Caps in the 2013 season – it was 11:58 of time well spent on an ice sheet he hopes he will see a lot more of in 2013-2014 and the years ahead.

Aaron Volpatti

We’re betting Vancouver Canuck fans thought that Roberto Luongo would be heading out of town before Aaron Volpatti would.  If they thought that, they were wrong, for Luongo is still a Canuck, and Volpatti was claimed by the Caps on waivers in late February.  It was hardly a risky move for the Caps, Volpatti being a negligible cap hit.  And, he presumably would add a dimension that the Caps seemed to lack.  Need a hint?  In parts of three NHL seasons covering 54 games with Vancouver, he scored a total of three goals.  On the other hand, he had 11 fights.

And so it came to pass that in his first game with the Caps, Volpatti took on Winnipeg’s Anthony Peluso, a relative newcomer to the NHL (he was playing in only his fifth NHL game), but a player with a long fighting resume in the AHL (27 fights in his previous two seasons).  Volpatti, who gave away three inches and 20 pounds, was handled rather decisively by Peluso.  But it was a Pyrrhic victory for Peluso, for not only did his Jets get shutout, 3-0, but Peluso broke his hand in the process.  It was his last game of the season. 

It also was Volpatti’s last fight of the season.  But it was not his last game.  Caps fans might be hard-pressed to remember, but he did dress for 16 more games, going 0-1-1, minus-2 in those contests.

There are Caps fans who look upon Volpatti as a potential replacement for Matt Hendricks.  Sure, he comes with a lower price tag ($575,000 cap hit for the next two seasons), no small consideration for this team.  But he is not all that much younger (28) than Hendricks (32), and if one problem the Caps have is getting very little out of their fourth line at the offensive end of the rink, Volpatti does not appear to address that issue.

And there you have it, 2013’s version of “burnt ends.”  Unlike the barbecue variety, we hope there are fewer of them next season and much more savory tales to tell.

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Goalies: Michal Neuvirth

Michal Neuvirth

"I took the two most expensive aspirins in history."

-- Wally Pipp, after being replaced by Lou Gehrig in the lineup due to a headache.

In the span of three seasons from 2008-2009 through 2010-2011, Michal Neuvirth won two Calder Cup championships with the Hershey Bears in the AHL and became the number one goaltender for the Washington Capitals, supplanting Semyon Varlamov in that role.

In 2013 Michal Neuvirth played in 13 games.

The arc of Neuvirth’s development might have suggested that by now he would be firmly entrenched as the Caps number one netminder, a technician who could be a steadying, consistent performer in net over the long haul and who seemed to rise to the occasion in big games.

However, in 2011-2012 the Caps saw an opportunity to add a solid veteran presence in goal on a cheap contract and signed Tomas Vokoun.  Then Vokoun got hurt, and it seemed Neuvirth would get his shot to reclaim the number one job.  But then Neuvirth suffered a knee (correction: hip flexor, as noted by a reader) injury in a late-season game against the Florida Panthers, clearing the way for Braden Holtby to take over as the number one goalie.  Holtby sparkled in the playoffs, and Neuvirth has been chained to the number two job ever since.

Even this season, when Neuvirth had a chance to create a goalie controversy after Holtby stumbled out of the gate, he could not grab the job for his own, going 1-4-1, 3.04, .889 in appearing in seven of nine games from January 24^th through February 7^th.  Illness and Holtby’s improving play as the season wore on conspired to staple Neuvirth to the bench and limit him to only six appearances over the Caps’ last 37 games.

Neuvirth was better late in games than early.  His save percentage in the first period of games (.904) and that in the second period of games (.897) was mediocre.  However, his save percentage in the third period (.937) was excellent.  It was even better later in the season.  In his last eight appearances his save percentage in the third period of games was .963 (he did not last into the third period of one of those games, a 5-2 loss to Pittsburgh on February 7^th in which he allowed two goals on 11 shots in less than 33 minutes).

His problem, though, was getting behind the eight ball early.  In nine of 12 first periods in which he played (he came on in relief in the second period of one other appearance) he allowed goals, despite what was not a heavy shot load (9.5 shots per period).

Odd Neuvirth Statistic… “Seven.”  As in the “seventh day.”  Neuvirth was 2-0-0, 2.02, .923 on Sunday, 0-5-1, 2.69, .907 on the other days of the week.

Game to Remember… April 25^th vs. Ottawa.  It is perhaps odd that a game to remember would have ended in a loss.  But it was Neuvirth who kept the Caps in the game.  Through two periods at Verizon Center, Neuvirth allowed only a tip-in goal by Jakob Silfverberg on the 16 shots he faced.  The Caps tied the game in the third on a goal by Alex Ovechkin, but it was all the Caps could muster.  Meanwhile, at the other end, Neuvirth stopped all 23 shots – yes, 23 shots – he faced in the period to get the Caps to overtime.  It was all Neuvirth could do, though.  With Mike Ribeiro taking a roughing penalty at the end of regulation that carried over into the extra session, Ottawa took advantage of the 4-on-3 power play.  Sergei Gonchar ended it at the 47 second mark with a slap shot through a screen and past Neuvirth.  All in all, Neuvirth made 39 saves on 41 shots, both highs for him for the season.

Game to Forget… January 24^th vs. Montreal.  Michal Neuvirth had good success against Montreal in his career, going 4-1-0, 1.82, .939 with one shutout against the Canadiens.  He did not add another successful chapter to this part of his resume in his first appearance of the season.  He was fine in the first period, stopping all nine shots he faced.  The second period, though, was something of a meltdown.  It was not entirely his fault, the Caps wearing a path to the penalty box, but neither was he the best penalty killer, as goalies often have to be.  Montreal scored three goals – two of them on the power play – in a span of 5:52, then added another with just 1:39 left in the middle frame to take a 4-0 lead to end the competitive portion of the evening in a 4-1 Caps loss.

Post Season... Neuvirth saw no ice time in the opening round series loss to the New York Rangers, his second straight post season of having seen no action after doing post-season duty in every season dating back to his 2003-2004 season with HC Sparta Praha U17 in Czech Republic at age 15.

In the end…

When Semyon Varlamov was traded to Colorado in July 2011, the path seemed clear at last for Michal Neuvirth to assume the responsibilities of number one goaltender for the Caps on a permanent basis.  He served a successful apprenticeship, and while his NHL numbers were not spectacular, he was still young and had upside yet to be tapped.  Or so the thinking might have been.  But then the Caps saw a bargain for an established number one goalie – Tomas Vokoun – and pounced, relegating Neuvirth to backup status.  He has not yet emerged from that shadow, one that is now cast by Braden Holtby. That one is a longer shadow.  Holtby has been solid in both regular and post-seasons, carrying himself and performing like a number one goalie who will not be relinquishing that spot soon.  Neuvirth might not get another chance to serve as a number one goaltender unless he is moved to another organization.  However, in late April he signed a two-year, $5.0 million deal with the Caps, a contract that has a $650,000 larger cap hit than the new two-year deal that Holtby signed in February. 

If there is one thing history teaches, though, it is that today’s goaltending depth is tomorrow’s desperate need.  Caps fans might remember that in 1994-1995 the Caps dressed Jim Carey, Byron Dafoe, and Olaf Kolzig in goal, all drafted by the Caps.  Two seasons later, Dafoe was gone, Carey melted down, and Kolzig (perhaps third on that depth chart in 1994-1995) was the number one goalie.  That is, in a sense, the way Holtby progressed, Semyon Varlamov leaving followed by Holtby's passing of Neuvirth on the depth chart.  Neuvirth is not just insurance in that respect.  He might yet be the number one goalie for this team, even if it hardly looks that way at the moment.

Grade: C

Photo: Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America

 

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Goalies: Braden Holtby

Braden Holtby

“…you have an all-out prize fight, you wait until the fight is over, one guy is left standing. And that's how you know who won.”
 -- Al Capone in "The Untouchables"

In the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, nine goalies were selected ahead of Braden Holtby, who was picked 93^rd overall by the Washington Capitals.  At the time, there were no fewer than five goalies were ahead of Holtby on the Capitals’ depth chart – Jose Theodore, Brent Johnson, Semyon Varlamov, Michal Neuvirth, and Daren Machesney.

Five years later, Theodore, Johnson, Varlamov, and Machesney have moved on, and Holtby is at the top of the heap, having come out on top in his mano-a-mano competition with Michal Neuvirth over the past two seasons.  In 2013 Holtby was the number one goalie from start to finish for the first time in his third season with the big club.  Not that it came with a sense of certainty attached to it.  In parts of the previous two seasons Holtby appeared in only 21 regular season games.  Despite some sparkling numbers – 14-4-3, 2.02, .929, with three shutouts in those 21 appearances – it took his post-season performance in 2012 (1.95 GAA/.935 save percentage in 14 games) to lift him into the lead in the goalie competition going into 2013.

The Great Lockout of 2012-2013 left Holtby plying his trade in Hershey with the AHL Bears, where he had an iffy 12-12-1 record, but with a 2.14 goals against average and a .932 save percentage.  Both the GAA and save percentage would have ranked him fourth in the AHL had he qualified in the end-of-season rankings.

When the NHL season got underway in January, the jump to stiffer competition did not agree with Holtby.  He appeared in the Caps’ first two games but allowed ten goals on 73 shots (.863 save percentage).  It earned him a seat for five games and put his position as number one goalie in jeopardy.  Michal Neuvrith had struggles of his own, not reaching the .900 level in save percentage in any of those five games.  Holtby returned in Game 8 of the season but continued to struggle into his second ten-game segment of the season.

However, starting with a 38-save effort in a 2-1 loss to the New York Rangers on February 17^th, Holtby’s season began to turn around.  His ten-game splits improved significantly over his first ten-game split.  Over his last four splits he did not record a save percentage lower than .916, and he dropped his goals against average from 4.52 in his first ten-game split to 2.58 by season’s end.   In those last four splits Holtby was 22-9-1, 2.34, .927 with four shutouts.  Holtby was clearly the number one goalie in Washington.

Odd Holtby Statistic… Braden Holtby was 1-4-1, 4.37, .864 against teams from Pennsylvania, the Penguins and Flyers.  He was 22-8-0, 2.28, .929 with four shutouts against everyone else.

Game to Remember… March 21/22 at Winnipeg.  When the Caps headed to Winnipeg for a back-to-back set of games in Manitoba – a scheduling quirk as a result of the lockout – they had just come off one of their best games of the season but had nothing to show for it.  They fought the Pittsburgh Penguins to a draw over 50 minutes, holding the mighty Penguins to a single goal.  Then, just after a Caps power play expired, Matt Niskanen took a feed from Matt Cooke and wristed a puck that just cleared a sliding Karl Alzner and eluded Braden Holtby’s glove for the game-winner in 2-1 loss.  The Caps were still buried in the standings, 14^th in the East and nine points behind the Winnipeg Jets, who they would visit for this back-to-back.

Getting swept in Winnipeg probably would have ended the competitive portion of the season for the Caps, since they would have been 13 points behind the Jets with 27 games to play.  But that was not what happened.  The Caps swept the Jets, due in large part to Holtby holding the home team to one goal on 51 shots over the two games, the lone Jets goal coming in the third period after the Caps had built a 5-1 lead in Game 2 of the set.  His shutout in Game 1 of the set was his second straight over the Jets in 2013.

Game to Forget… February 3^rd vs. Pittsburgh.  If the March 19^th game against the Penguins was one of the best the Caps played to that point in the 2013 season, it was due in part to the game against the Penguins on February 3^rd being among the worst.  Holtby was particulary tormented by Chris Kunitz.  First it was a tip in off a point shot less than four minutes into the game.  Then it was a snap shot from the top of the left wing circle to give the Penguins a 4-2 lead.  Six minutes later, with the Pens on a power play and Karl Alzner without a stick – making it effectively a 5-on-3 – it was one-timer from the bottom of the left wing circle.  Finally, it was a one-timer from the slot that beat Holtby on the last shot he faced on the day for Kunitz’ fourth goal of the game.  Holtby allowed six goals on 26 shots in the 6-3 loss.

Post Season… It would have been hard for Braden Holtby to improve on his numbers from the 2012 playoffs (1.95, .935).  Only five times in 14 games in 2012 did he allow more than two goals.  He was not far off, though, in 2013 (2.22, .922).  Here is the thing, though.  Until Game 7 he was better than last season, a 1.77 goals against average and a .938 save percentage.  Then there was Game 7.  It was a classic case of a team – the Caps – dominating the game early, but unable to capitalize on Holtby’s opposite number, Henrik Lundqvist.  When the momentum changed, the Rangers capitalized – often.  New York scored five goals over a span of 33:20 from 13:19 of the first period (on a goal from an unlikely source: Arron Asham) to 6:39 of the third (again from an unlikely source: Mats Zuccarello).  Holtby and the Caps picked the wrong time to suffer a team-wide collapse.

In the end…

Let’s compare a couple of goaltenders and their first three regular season in the league:

Goalie A: 57 games, 37-16-4, 2.39, .923, 7 shutouts

Goalie B: 59 games, 30-13-12, 2.39, .917, 4 shutouts

Not much separating them, is there?  Now, let’s look at the same two goalies in the post season over those three years:

Goalie A: 21 games, 10-11, 2.04, .931, 1 shutout

Goalie B: 19 games, 10-9, 2.49, .915, 2 shutouts

Goalie A has better numbers overall (not that the win-loss record reflects it) and is more consistent (Goalie B has those two shutouts in 19 games, but almost a half-goal higher GAA).  Who are they?

Goalie A is Braden Holtby, Goalie B is Semyon Varlamov in his first three seasons in the league, all with Washington.  Varlamov was sent to Colorado after that third season, in no small part due to stories that if he was not the Caps’ number one goalie, he would consider going to Europe to play.  Holtby, on the other hand, is something of the “last man standing,” having climbed up the depth chart until he stands now as the Caps’ number one goalie.  At the moment, there is no question who won.

Grade: B

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

The Cup vs. The Finals, Stanley vs. Larry... Does Format Matter? (Oh, and a prognosto)

The Stanley Cup Playoffs get underway tonight, and it is a good time to do a little comparison between the NHL and NBA in terms of their finals formats.

In 1985 the National Basketball Association changed its finals format to a 2-3-2 arrangement of the seven games -- Games 1 and 2, and Games 6 and 7 played on the higher-seeded team’s home court.  The National Hockey League had a similar format in 1985 but moved to a 2-2-1-1-1 format the following year and each year thereafter.

In those 27 years since 1986 that the leagues have been employing different formats in their respective finals (26 seasons in the case of the NHL owing to The Great Lockout of 2004-2005), they have paved somewhat different roads in crowning champions.

At first blush, there seems to be no difference between the leagues in terms of the season’s ultimate game.  In the NBA the Larry O’Brien Trophy was awarded to the league champion in the vanquished team’s arena 12 times in 27 seasons.  In the NHL the Stanley Cup was presented to the captain of the league champion 13 times in the opponent’s rink.  Away teams have done quite well in clinching titles.

Look deeper, though.  In the case of the NBA 11 series in 27 years went only four or five games, those in which the higher-seeded team was the “away” team.  In eight of those 11 instances the higher-seeded team won.  Meanwhile, in the NHL there were also 11 series in 26 seasons that went four or five games.  But there is a difference here.  In the NHL, Game 4 is played on the lower-seeded team’s ice, Game 5 on the higher-seeded team’s ice. 

Did it make a difference?  In six four-game sweeps over the past 26 seasons – that fourth game played on the lower-seeded team’s ice – the home teams and the away teams split those six decisions, three apiece.  In five-game series – games played on the higher-seeded team’s ice – the home teams won three times, the away teams twice.  In short series, at least in these 11 instances, it hardly seems to have mattered much what seed or on whose ice the Cup-clinching games were played.

In long series seeding starts to matter more.  Over the last 27 seasons the NBA has played 16 series that have gone to at least a Game 6, meaning that those series always end on the higher-seeded team’s floor.  In those 16 instances, 12 times the higher-seeded team (the home team) won.  And here is where the format seems to come into play, if only a bit.  The championship was won in the NBA finals 12 times in Game 6 – again, the home team’s floor – and in eight of those instances it was won by the home team. 

But then go to the Game 7 results.  Only four times in 27 seasons has an NBA final gone to seven games.  In each of those instances covering a span of 23 seasons (from 1988 to 2010) the home team won Game 7.  Finals series do not generally reach a Game 7 because home teams clinch in Game 6.

On the other hand, the NHL has had 15 long series (lasting six or seven games) over the past 26 seasons.  Seven of them were clinched in Game 6 – on the opponent’s ice.  This is where seeding takes over.  The higher-seeded team won six times in seven on the opponent’s ice. 

The difference carries over into Game 7 as well.  Eight times in the last 26 seasons (six times in the last 11) the Stanley Cup finals have gone to a Game 7.  Six times the home team – the higher seeded team – won the Cup, although it is worth noting that the two instances in which the visiting lower-seeded team won the Cup came in the last two Games 7, in 2009 (Pittsburgh, in Detroit) and in 2011 (Boston, in Vancouver).

The differences between the NBA and NHL in format seem to be that the 2-3-2 format that grants NBA teams the extra late home game in a long series acts as an accelerant to the effects of being a higher (and presumably better in most years) seed.  Higher-seeded teams are more likely to end their series in Game 6, if not sooner.  In the NHL, seeding matters, but format seems to serve to extend series in the form of more Games 7.

In historical context, here is what you might look for in the Boston-Chicago series.  First, no team has been swept since Detroit swept Washington in four games in 1998.  In the 13 Stanley Cup finals since, the Cup has been won by the higher-seeded team ten times.  And it did not matter where that Cup-clinching game is played.  Twice the higher-seeded team clinched at home Game 5 (2002 by Detroit, 2007 by Anaheim), four times on the road in Game 6, and four times on home ice in Game 7.

This trend is mitigated somewhat by the history since the league’s lost 2005 playoffs.  In seven tournaments since then, the lower-seeded team has won the Cup three times, all of them coming in the last four playoffs, twice in Game 7.  But is that the start of a new trend, or an anomaly?  We just hope the NHL doesn’t follow in the NBA’s footsteps with the 2-3-2 format.

We’ll take Chicago in six.

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Wojtek Wolski

Wojtek Wolski

“Well, it's all right, riding around in the breeze

Well, it's all right, if you live the life you please

Well, it's all right, even if the sun don't shine

Well, it's all right, we're going to the end of the line”

-- The Traveling Wilburys

Last October, we took note of something Wojtek Wolski said upon his signing with the Washington Capitals as a free agent…

"I still have a lot of life left in me.  I'm at a point in my career where I'm at a crossroads, and I've got to make it work."

What we did not do was finish the quote.  Here is the entire quote…

“I still have a lot of life left in me. I’m at a point in my career where I’m at a crossroads and I’ve got to make it work and I think I’m ready and able. It’s going to be a great year.”

Wolski might have been ready; he played briefly with KH Sanok in the Polish Hockey Superleague during The Great Lockout of 2012-2013.  He might have been able; after all, he did record 95 goals and 257 points in 424 games in a seven-year NHL career.  However, it was not a great year. 

Wolski finished the 2013 season with the Caps 4-5-9, plus-1 in 27 games, almost a point for point reproduction of the “Florida Panthers” portion of his 2011-2012 season where he went 4-5-9, minus-3 in 22 games.

It was a curious season of ice time atrophy for Wolski. He played in each of the Caps’ first 19 games, but managed only a 2-2-4, minus-5 scoring line.  He played in four of the ten games in the third ten-game segment (2-2-4, plus-4), three games in the fourth ten-game segment (0-0-0, plus-1) and finally just one game in the final eight of the 48-game season (0-1-1, plus-1).  His ice time dwindled from a shade under 15 minutes a game in those first 19 games to just over 12 minutes in the four games in the third ten-game segment to seven-and-a-half in the three games in the fourth ten-game segment to 7:15 in his only appearance in the last eight-game segment.

It is a bit of a mystery how Wolski came to be a healthy scratch more often as the season wore on.  Among Caps forwards appearing in at least 20 games he had the best raw Corsi value at 5-on-5, and he was third in Corsi value on-ice relative to the value off-ice (numbers from behindthenet.ca).  From that perspective his possession numbers were certainly adequate. 

His goals scored per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 were middle of the pack among those Caps forwards, as were his primary assists.  His scoring did not appear to be an obvious problem.

But there were numbers that jumped out.  The team save percentage with Wolski on ice was second worst among Caps forwards, contributing to his team-worst PDO value among forwards at 5-on-5.  His team goals-against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was ninth among forwards (numbers from behindthenet.ca).  He did not suffer a large volume of total goals scored against (12th among all forwards), but his 12 team goals scored against in 27 games was not much different from the 14 goals scored against with Mathieu Perreault on ice.  The difference was that Perreault realized that total in 39 games and almost 100 more minutes of total ice time than Wolski.

Odd Wolski Statistic…  “Three.”  Wolski spent three seconds this season on the penalty kill.  Not three seconds per game… three seconds, total.  It was the lowest such number on the team among all 28 skaters who dressed for the Caps.

Game to Remember… March 7^th vs. Florida.  The March 7^th contest against the Florida Panthers was more or less Wolski’s season.  His goal at 3:10 of the first period giving the Caps a 2-0 lead would prove to be the game-winning goal.  He did a fine job of walking around defenseman Colby Robak at the goal line, collecting the puck off the skirt of the net and stuffing it under goalie Jacob Markstrom.  That being the second goal of the evening on the Caps’ first two shots, Markstrom’s evening was over.  Wolski’s evening was just beginning.  He assisted on a power play goal by Eric Fehr, a sweet pass through the crease to Fehr in the left wing circle setting up the score.  Then he put the cherry on the sundae, setting up Mathieu Perreault with a little spin-o-rama pass at the Florida blue line to spring Perreault in on relief goalie Scott Clemmensen to end the night’s scoring in a 7-1 Caps win.  Wolski finished with a third of his point total for the season, going 1-2-3, plus-2, in 12:15 in ice time.

Game to Forget… April 9^th at Montreal.  In what would be his penultimate game as a Capital, Wolski skated only eight shifts in Bell Centre (his lowest total of the season), only one of those in the third period of what would be 3-2 win for the Caps.  No goals, no assists, no points, no shots.

Post Season… Wolski did not dress for any of the seven games in the opening round series against the New York Rangers.

In the end…

Wolski’s tenure with the Caps is already past tense.  On May 20^th – one week after the Caps were eliminated from the playoffs – Wolski came to terms on an agreement with Torpedo Nizhny Novgorod of Russia's Kontinental Hockey League.  His was a low risk signing, probably worth it even in retrospect to see if he could recapture the sort of 50-point production he enjoyed in his rookie season.  Truth be told, his scoring line on an 82-game basis (12-15-27) was not far off the prognosto for him last October (15-19-34).  But he just could not find a niche in the lineup and did not do enough to instill confidence in his production on a consistent basis.  What it means is that it is entirely possible that Washington was the end of the line for Wolski in the NHL at the too-soon age of 27.

Grade: C-

Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2012-2013 By the Tens -- Forwards: Joel Ward

Joel Ward

“Think simple…reduce the whole of its parts into the simplest terms, getting back to first principles.”

-- Frank Lloyd Wright

It was quite an eventful end of the 2011-2012 season for Joel Ward.  In one moment, he is the hero, the toast of the town, the player whose overtime goal in Game 7 of the Washington Capitals’ opening round series against the defending Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins propelled the Caps into the second round against the New York Rangers.  Then, in Game 5 of that second round series, Ward was whistled for a double-minor high sticking penalty with 21.3 seconds left in regulation time and the Caps holding a 2-1 lead.  The Rangers scored on both ends of the power play, tying the game with 6.6 seconds left in regulation, then winning it 1:35 into overtime, denying the Caps the opportunity to take a 3-2 games lead back home to Washington for Game 6.  The Caps won Game 6 but lost the series in Game 7.

Then, in the off-season Ward had sports hernia surgery.  One might be forgiven if Ward just wanted to play the simple sort of game in 2013 that does not get much in terms of notoriety, but yields dividends in the win column.  

In a way the start to Ward’s 2013 season was a carbon copy of the start of his 2011-2012 season.  Ward posted four goals in his first seven games of the 2013 season, besting his four goals in his first 12 games of the 2011-2012 season.  Then, he went cold.  Not “2011-2012 cold,” where he would go 25 consecutive games without a goal, but he did manage only four goals over his last 32 games of the season.  His regular season ended early when he blocked a Sami Salo shot with his leg in a 4-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on April 7^th.

Ward is not a player who will drive offensive numbers.  His role is more to chip in offense when the opportunities present themselves, to help keep bad things happening on defense, and to win physical battles in the corners and along the wall.  In that respect you would have to say he did his job.  Eight goals was not a lot, especially given his finish to the regular season, but it did tie Nicklas Backstrom for fifth among Capital forwards.  It also represented what might have been a tie for his career best on a goals-per-82 game basis (17, tied with his 2008-2009 finish in Nashville).  He also finished sixth among Capital forwards in assists.

Ward’s possession numbers ranked high on the club at 5-on-5.  His raw on-ice Corsi value was third among 14 Caps forwards playing in at least 20 games, his on-ice Corsi value relative to his off-ice value fifth among that group of forwards.  His plus-minus per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was third among the Caps forwards, and only Eric Fehr had a better differential of plus-minus on-ice to plus-minus off-ice.

The plus-minus figures reflect solid defense, if not due solely to Ward, then at least in his presence.  His goals-against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was fifth best among Caps forwards playing in at least 20 games, as was his on-ice save percentage for.

Odd Ward Statistic… “112.”  Joel Ward played in 111 games as a Capital without recording a game-winning goal.  That streak ended on April 7^th against Tampa Bay.  His goal at 16:21 of the second period put the Caps ahead to stay in what would be a 4-2 win over the Lightning.  It also was his last game of the regular season after he took that Sami Salo shot off his knee in the third period.

Game to Remember… January 27^th vs. Buffalo.  The Caps stubbed their toe early under their new coach, Adam Oates.  They were 0-3-1 in their first four games of the 2013 season and wer coming off a tough 3-2 overtime loss to New Jersey.  It did not look to be getting any better when the Buffalo Sabres scored first in their January 27^th game at Verizon Center.  However, with the clock winding down to four minutes left in the first period, Joel Ward beat Cody Hodgson to a loose puck in the Buffalo end as it was sliding toward the blue line.  Ward kept the puck in and dumped to the right wing wall where Mike Ribeiro picked it up.  Ribeiro sent the puck down to Jason Chimera at the goal line extended, from where Chimera one-timed the puck to the crease.  Goalie Ryan Miller got a piece of it, but he managed only to redirect it into the slot.  Ward was right there to swat it past Miller to tie the game.  He would add an assist to put the Caps ahead when he circled in the Olympia corner with the puck, then found John Erskine at the left point.  Erskine walked up the wall and flicked a harmless looking wrist shot that eluded Miller, giving the Caps a 2-1 lead on their way to a 3-2 win and Oates’ first win as head coach for the Caps.

Game to Forget… March 12^th vs. Carolina.  Joel Ward was on ice for 16 even strength goals against in the 2013 season.  Three of them were recorded in the March 12^th game against Carolina.  Throw in the shorthanded goal Carolina scored into an empty net for which Ward was on the ice, and the minus-4 he recorded for this game was a career-worst.  Add in that he took a high-sticking penalty and did not record a shot on goal, and this 4-0 Carolina win was a very forgettable game.

Post Season… Ward tied for the team lead in points in the seven-game series against the New York Rangers.  He had one of the Caps’ two power play goals for the series.  He tied for the team lead in shooting percentage (12.5 percent).  Normally, one might think he had a prolific performance.  But a 1-3-4 scoring line in seven games is fine for a third liner.  It is not a scoring line that should have been tied for second on the team in goals (tied with nine other players), or tied for the top spot in assists, or tied in total points.  The other side of that coin is that he was on ice for more even strength goals against than any Caps forward except Jay Beagle.  All five goals against for which Ward was on the ice came in Caps’ losses in the series.

In the end…

There was good and not so good in Joel Ward’s season.  There was the fast start, and there was the long drought.  There was the rugged play in hard areas of the ice that prevented a lot of scoring, but he was one of a number of Caps who could not replicate that performance in the post-season.  He did not have the wild ups and downs (ok, up and down) in the playoffs that he experienced last season, but he did not distinguish himself in this year’s post season, either.  And on that basis, evaluating his season is not a process given to simplicity.  One cannot help but think, though, that it just did not quite fit together.

Grade: B-

Photo: Greg Fiume/Getty Images North America