Countdown to Opening Night by the Elements: Number 2

Two elements left.  We have come so far in Fearless’ winding journey through the rows and columns of the periodic table.  And now, we are down to …

Helium

It is colorless, tasteless, odorless, non-toxic, and inert.  It exists only as a gas except in very extreme conditions.  It is the second-most abundant element in all the universe.  Its formation dates all the way back to the “big bang” at the dawn of creation of the universe as we have come to know it, although it continues to be produced as a product of nuclear fusion in stars.

Here on earth it was discovered… not on earth.  Pierre Jules César Janssen (known simply as “Jules” to his chemist pals) found evidence of helium in 1868 when he was making observations of the chromosphere of the sun.  Trouble is, Janssen thought what he discovered was actually sodium.  It was up to Norman Lockyer, an English chemist, to figure out that what it really was, was an element not found on earth.  Lockyer and his chemist partner, Edward Frankland, named the element “helium” for the Greek word “helios,” meaning “sun.”

The trick now was to find it on earth.  That would be credited to Luigi Palmieri, a physicist who detected it in analyzing lava of Mount Vesuvius in Italy.  Detecting it was one thing, finding it in volume was another.  Fast forward to 1903 and an oil well in Kansas, near its border with Oklahoma.  While drilling for oil, a gas geyser erupted, but the gas did not burn.  Erasmus Haworth, a geologist, collected and analyzed samples of the gas and found that more than ten percent of the gas was a heretofore unidentified gas (the rest of it being nitrogen, methane, and hydrogen).  Further analysis revealed that much of the unidentified gas was helium. 

Helium has a number of applications… arc welding, wind tunnels, leak detection, solar telescopes.  But it really comes down to two uses.  One, as a gas lighter than air and chemically inert, it can be used in flight applications – balloons, airships, and even in some rocket fuel production processes.  The other is as a party gag, where drunken college students can inhale the gas from party balloons to alter the resonant frequencies voices (that is, make them sound like Donald Duck after smoking marijuana).

So there it is.  A lighter than air element, named by Norman "Lockyer"… analyzed and discovered to exist in large volumes in the American Midwest by Erasmus "Haworth.”  And, perhaps its most widely known use is for occasions such as this…

Sounds like a former Capital with a nickname that sounds like “Lockyer,” who played with a teammate named “Haworth.”  A former player who has become an on-air fixture in Capitals games, but one who has a distinctive “resonance frequency” to his voice all alone.

Helium… the “Craig Laughlin” of the elements of the periodic table.

Countdown to Opening Night by the Elements: Number 3

We are almost done… well, Fearless is.  Just three more elements of the periodic table to go.  Number 3 is…

Lithium

Lithium is the lightest and least dense of all the metals.  That does not make it unreactive.  It is quite reactive, in fact.  So much so that it is often stored in mineral oil to keep it from oxidizing in air.  It is so reactive that it does not occur freely in nature, only in compounds.  It possesses a high conductivity character at very low temperatures.

It has a modest history in terms of its discovery.  That is, if your starting point is a mine in Sweden...an island in fact (sounds a bit like the beginning of “Jurassic Park”).  But there it is, a Brazilian chemist, José Bonifácio de Andrada e Silva by name, discovered a grayish, yellowish crystalline substance on the island of Utö, southeast of Stockholm (I won’t hazard a guess as to how it came to be that a Brazilian chemist was excavating on an island in an archipelago in Sweden in the year 1800).

Seventeen years later, a Swedish chemist (Johan August Arfwedson) working for another Swedish chemist (Jöns Jakob Berzelius...geez, all these Swedes!) took a sample of this crystalline substance – named “petalite” – and discovered that it contained a new element.  The boss – Berzelius – took it upon himself to name it, calling it “lithion,” for the Greek word “lithos,” meaning “stone” (imaginative, eh?).

Now that it was discovered and given a name, it had to be put to use.  And it has quite a variety of uses: ceramics and glass production, batteries, lubricants, welding and soldering processes, fireworks (where it contributes a red color), air purification, polymers, rocket propellants, as a neutron absorber in nuclear fusion (which has military applications), and as a coolant in nuclear reactors.  It might be most widely known as an element used in compounds to treat bipolar disorders.

What you have is an element that is unstable in air, yet reactive.  It was discovered “southeast” of a major city in Scandinavia (you’re pushing it, Fearless…).  It has a wide range of uses, but most of them in common applications or industrial processes.  It is quite conductive at low temperatures.  Sounds something like a player who has had “stability” issues physically, say, with his shoulders.  A player who played with two teams in the Southeast Division, including twice with the Caps.  A player who spent the NHL lockout playing in Scandinavia.  It occasionally can have some pop.

Lithium… the “Eric Fehr” of elements of the periodic table.

Washington Capitals 2013-2014 Previews -- A Six-Pack

The NHL provides that teams may carry 23 players on their rosters.  And as we head into the regular season there are going to be players on the edge who might be sent down to juniors (Tom Wilson), to the AHL (Tyson Strachan, Dmitry Orlov, Tomas Kundratek), or…well, we just don’t know (Connor Carrick).  Do we have anything to say about these guys?  You bet we do…

Tom Wilson

It would be hard to think that any player this September gave (and still gives) Washington Capitals management more cause to think than Tom Wilson.  The 16^th overall pick in the 2012 entry draft is, even at just 19 years of age, the mix of size, skill, and edginess that has been lacking on the club since, well, a long time.  The problem for the Caps is that Wilson has no AHL option.  It is either a roster spot with the parent club or back to Plymouth in the Ontario Hockey League, in accordance with an agreement between the NHL and the umbrella Canadian Hockey League organization that provides that a player not having reached his 20^th birthday or having played in four years in major junior hockey is not eligible to play in minor professional hockey leagues (AHL or ECHL).  Wilson has completed three years with the Plymouth Whalers. 

Scoring three goals and participating in two fights in his five preseason games has made things tougher on the Caps’ front office, but complicating the matter is payroll.  The Caps have $665,705 in cap room at the moment for 22 roster spots (13 forwards, seven defensemen, two goaltenders; source: capgeek.com).  Given who would be expected to be retained by the club, if the Caps choose to keep 13 forwards, one would have to be moved to make room for Wilson on the roster.  Even if they were inclined to carry 14 forwards, Wilson’s $1.3 million cap hit would push the club over, making necessary a move in that case.

By the time you read this, the matter might already be settled, since NHL clubs have to get down to rosters of no more than 23 players and under the $64.3 million salary cap by 5:00 p.m. (Eastern) on Monday.  Wilson has been getting a long hard look in preseason, and we suspect that the club is trying to clear a roster space to allow him to stay with the club.  However, with a lot of other clubs in the position of having to trim their rosters to get to the 23-man limit on Monday, it could prove to be a hard chore.  That the Caps have an option with Wilson to return him to juniors means that they could be less inclined to holding what amounts to a “garage sale” sort of deal that does not return value.  We think that come Monday, Wilson will be back in Plymouth.  But we are not very confident about that forecast.

Tomas Kundratek

It was a mild surprise that Tomas Kundratek was placed on waivers on September 25^th.  If there was a time to do it, though, that was the time.  With clubs heading into the last weekend of the preseason and having their own waiver decisions to make, their making a waiver claim on a third-pair defenseman was a chance the Caps were willing to take.  It worked.  Kundratek cleared waivers.

That might not be the end of it, though.  Kundratek was 1-6-7 in 25 games last season for the Caps before suffering a leg injury in a game against the Carolina Hurricanes on March 14^th that ended his season.  He certainly has a salary cap-friendly hit of only $550,000, but is in a bit of a logjam with the other right-handed defensemen on the roster (Mike Green, John Carlson, Steve Oleksy, Tyson Strachan.

Although he did surprise somewhat with his offense last season, his possession numbers left a bit to be desired.  His 5-on-5 Corsi/on-ice was sixth among eight defensemen playing in at least 20 games for the Caps (only John Erskine and Jeff Schultz were worse), and his Corsi relative (on-ice less off-ice value) was also sixth among the eight defensement. His PDO (sum of team on-ice shooting and save percentages) was second worst among the defensemen (only Jeff Schultz had a lower value).  He compiled these numbers while having the highest share of offensive zone starts (52.0 percent) among the defensemen playing in at least 20 games.

Still, he could serve as one of those guys who is on a short list for call-up in the event of injury or poor play.

Projection: 13 games, 1-3-4, minus-3

Tyson Strachan

Much of what we just wrote about Tomas Kundratek also applies to Tyson Strachan.  He was placed on waivers on September 28^th.  At this writing we do not know if he cleared or was claimed.  We suspect, though, that he will go unclaimed and follow Kundratek to Hershey for the same reasons.

There are, however, differences in their situations.  In Strachan’s case, he is not an especially gifted offensive player (he has one goal in 120 career games).  And, he has no history with the Caps, having spent his NHL career in St. Louis and Florida.  Last year with the Panthers, his possession numbers were alright (by Florida standards), ranked in the middle of the pack among Panther defensemen in his Corsi numbers at 5-on-5.  However, despite 54.2 percent offensive zone starts, his PDO value was second worst among seven Florida defensemen playing in at least 20 games.  In fact, only six of 210 defensemen in the league playing in at least 20 games had a lower value at 5-on-5 than his 953.

He is likely to be a fill-in of a different type than Kundratek.  Where Kundratek is more of a “skill” based defenseman, Strachan has more of a physical edge.  He could be an option in the event a John Erskine goes down (and remember, Erskine has played in more than 55 games only once in seven seasons in Washington).  His size (6’3”, 215) and edge (12 fights in 120 NHL games) makes him more suited to that role.

Projection: 12 games, 0-1-1, minus-2

Connor Carrick

Can’t say we saw this one coming.  Two years with the U.S. national development team was enough for the Caps to take a flyer on Connor Carrick in the fifth round of the 2012 entry draft.  Last year he skated in Canadian major junior hockey (Plymouth Whalers) and had a respectable 12-32-44, plus-27 scoring line in 68 games, plus 18 points in 15 post-season games.  He came to Caps development camp last July and impressed.  He was invited to training camp and apparently really impressed.  As of this writing he is still on the roster (he played 22-plus minutes in the Caps 4-3 overtime loss to Chicago on Saturday night).

He almost certainly will not make the parent roster this season, but he has played himself into a tough decision for the front office.  It is not on the order of the decision the Caps have to make concerning Carrick’s junior teammate Tom Wilson, but they have to ponder whether Carrick would be served better by a return to Plymouth or an assignment to Hershey.

In five preseason games he was 1-4-5, plus-1 (cbssports.com keeps pre-season statistics).  His five points put him in a tie for 13^th among Eastern Conference skaters and tied for fifth among defensemen.  Only 20 players in the league have more pre-season ice time at this writing (he leads the Caps in total ice time).  He is getting a long look and doing the most with the opportunity.

Dmitry Orlov

Dmitry is something of the lost prospect.  In 2011-2012 he was among the rookie defenseman leaders in assists and points, and developed a local reputation as being quite fond of the hip check.  Last year his season might have been a victim of the lockout that delayed the start of the season.  Without having had the opportunity to start the season in Washington with the Caps, he was skating with the Hershey Bears in a December 6^th game at Verizon Center against the Norfolk Admirals when he suffered a concussion, likely the product of a hit he sustained early in the first period.

Orlov played in only 31 games for the Bears and only five for the Capitals last season, stopping his development in its tracks.  Instead of growing into a second pair role with the club, he is fighting for a roster spot in pre-season 2013.  At the moment he appears to be on the outside looking in, at least in terms of cracking the starting lineup.  John Erskine, Jack Hillen, and Steve Oleksy would appear to have the inside on the last three starting spots on defense.  Hillen and Oleksy have the added bonus of carrying lower salary cap hits than Orlov ($900,000)

The not-too-subtle hint about Orlov is that he needs to develop a more rounded two-way game.   The upside for him is that as a left-handed defenseman he faces less congestion for a spot on the ice than he would if he was right-handed.  For the moment Orlov seems to be the odd-man out in the Caps’ blue line plans, but the grind of an 82-game season suggests he will get some time to show he is recovered and back on an upward development path.

Projection:  20 games, 2-4-6, minus-2

Philipp Grubauer

Philipp Grubauer’s march through the Capitals development path has been unremarkable by its consistency and steadiness.  Drafted in 2010 (fourth round, 112^th overall), a year in the Ontario Hockey League (Kingston Frontenacs, a year in the ECHL (South Carolina Stingrays), and last year splitting time between the Reading Royals in the ECHL and the Hershey Bears in the AHL.  He even found time for a cup o’ coffee with the Caps last year – two games in which he faced 59 shots in 84 minutes.  That works out to 42 shots per 60 minutes.  Well, he didn’t lack for work in his short stay.

Grubauer got about a game’s worth of total minutes in the pre-season before being sent back down to Hershey (he stopped 19 of 20 shots in his pre-season debut with the Bears, a 6-1 win over Wilkes-Barre/Scranton).  His 2.57 GAA and .923 save percentage in limited duty seems about where he ought to be, with a full year in Hershey to come as part of his apprenticeship.  There is no rush in bringing Grubauer along, and our expectation is that absent injury, he will not see action for the Caps this season.

Last season the Caps dressed 28 skaters and three goaltenders.  That means that there very well could be players dressing for the Caps this season in addition to those we covered in our previews.  That’s part of what makes each NHL season interesting, to see who gets a chance that you might not have expected when the season started. 

Washington Capitals 2013-2014 Previews -- Goaltenders: Braden Holtby

Braden Holtby

Theme: “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

-- Winston Churchill

Talk about having had two different seasons.  When Braden Holtby stumbled out of the gate at the delayed start of the 2012-2013 season, Caps fans might have had the thought, “it was nice while it lasted.”  Holtby, who started his career with a 2.02 goals against average and .929 save percentage in his first 21 career regular season games, went 3-4-0, 4.04, .870 in his first seven appearances of the new season.  Yeah, there was a shutout in there, but c’mon.  It was against Florida, a team that won two of their previous nine games in regulation going into that game. 

He looked lost…quite literally.  He was spending as much time trying to find his position in the crease as in tracking and turning away pucks.  Then he started to turn things around.  It was not a flip of a switch, by any means.  It was a three-game stretch in which he allowed eight goals but faced a ton of shots in doing so (107).  He even lost two of those games.  But stopping almost 93 percent of the shots he faced in those games marked a turning point for Holtby.

Only three times in his last 29 appearances of the season (including that three-game turning point) did Holtby allow more than three goals in an appearance.  In those 29 appearances he was 20-8-1, 2.26, .930, with three shutouts.

Overall, Holtby won 23 games in 36 appearances and posted a save percentage of .920 overall.  How many goalies in the last 20 years, age 23 or younger, posted a season with at least 20 wins and a .920 save percentage or better?  Six: Tuukka Rask, Andrew Raycroft, Carey Price (twice), Henrik Lundqvist, James Reimer, and Holtby.  If you are looking at that .930 save percentage in his last 29 appearances and ask yourself how many goalies age 23 or younger over the past 20 years posted at least 20 wins and at least a .930 save percentage in a single season, the answer is “Rask.”  That’s it.

Fearless’ Take…

Let’s extend that conversation for a moment.  Holtby has been in the league for three seasons now, having appeared in 57 games.  In that time seven different goaltenders have been named finalists for the Vezina Trophy.  How does Holtby compare to that group in terms of their respective first 57 appearances in the NHL:

Holtby has more wins and a higher save percentage than any of them, and he is second in goals against average to Henrik Lundqvist (parenthetically, it seems odd that 57 games into his career Holtby has yet to post a “no-decision” in an appearance).  And, he is consistent.  He has those spells when he looks ordinary (or worse), but he avoids losing streaks.  He has not lost three decisions in a row since his third, fourth, and fifth career games in 2010.  And, he has not yet lost three consecutive decisions in regulation in his brief career.  He’s a battler.

Cheerless’ Take…

He does have his moments.  Eighteen goals allowed in his first four appearances in 2012-2013.  Eight in his first two appearances in 2011-2012.  Eleven in three appearances in November 2010.  And it is not as if that is limited to the NHL.  Last year he had a 12 goals in four games stretch in November, 14 in four games in November 2011 and another 14 in four game stretch in December 2011, 19 in five games in February/March 2011.  Then there was the five goals on the first 20 shots he faced in Game 7 of the playoffs last spring.  Then there is that whole wandering thing...

The Big Question… The Next Big Step or the Next Big Stumble?

Braden Holtby’s performance over his first three years in the league compares more than favorably with similar game tracks of goalies who would be Vezina finalists the past three years.  Then again, there are goalies who start fast and fall quickly – Steve Mason won 33 games and a Calder Trophy in Columbus in 2008-2009, but he is 67-81-20 since and is trying to reassemble his career in Philadelphia.  Andrew Raycroft won a Calder Trophy in 2004, but he went 78-87-17 with five teams over the next seven years and played last year in Italy.  Then there is the Caps’ own Jim Carey, a first team all-rookie team goalie in 1995 and a Vezina Trophy winner in 1996.  Three years later, after going 26-35-4 with three different teams, he was out of hockey altogether.

Holtby has been prepared well, at least in the opinion of the Capitals’ brain trust.  As Capitals general manager George McPhee put it, "We think we've developed [Holtby] properly.  We've taken our time. We think he can really have a big year for us."  One could agree with that, given that Holtby served a diligent apprenticeship in South Carolina (12 games) and Hershey (107 games) before assuming the number one duties on a full-time basis last season with the Caps.

None of that, though, is a reliable indicator of future growth, and one area in which he has to break through involves this: 17-20.  That is his win-loss record in the post-season with South Carolina, Hershey, and Washington.  He has played well in those settings (a .912 save percentage with South Carolina in one post-season series, a .931 save percentage in 21 post-season games in Washington), but “great” goalies not only play well, they win at that level of play.  It is, then, still an open question whether the 2013-2014 season represents the next big step for Holtby or, well, something else.

In the end…

Hockey is a young man’s game.  This might be true more for skaters than for goaltenders.  Here’s the thing.  Cam Ward won a Stanley Cup at the age of 21 in 2006.  Since then, the average age of Stanley Cup-winning goaltenders is 29.  The youngest of that group is Marc-Andre Fleury who was 24 years old in 2009 (Holtby just turned 24). 

However, few goaltenders in the last 20 years have compiled an early-career resume as impressive as Holtby’s.  In the last 20 years only five goalies have played in at least 50 games in their first three seasons, had a goals against average of 2.39 or lower and a save percentage of .920 or better: Niklas Backstrom, Roman Cechmanek, Marty Turco, Tuukka Rask, and Holtby.  On the other hand, how many Stanley Cups were won by those other four goalies?  If you said “none,” you are correct.

Holtby has, by any measure, done everything he needs to do as a developing goaltender.  However, now he is the man.  And he has to do more.  He is at the end of the beginning.

Projection: 59 games, 32-18-6, 2.29, .924, 4 shutouts

Photo: Joel Auerbach/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2013-2014 Previews -- Goaltenders: Michal Neuvirth

Michal Neuvirth

Theme: “Comeback is a good word, man.”

-- Mickey Rourke

Until goaltender Michal Neuvirth finished 4-5-2 with the Washington Capitals in the 2012-2013 season, he had not finished under .500 for a season since he was 6-7-0 with the South Carolina Stingrays in 2008-2009.  That was his only sub-.500 season as a goalie at any level in his career, going back to Canadian junior hockey… again, until last season.

It was a season that started with hope.  Despite his being injured late in the 2011-2012 season and yielding his starting goaltending job to Braden Holtby for the playoffs, the expectation was that he would battle Holtby for the starting job out of the gate in the 2012-2013 season.

Nice thought, except the gate did not open on time.  The Great Lockout of 2012-2013 meant no training camp for evaluation, no Opening Night start.  By the time the league got around to opening night in January, the die was cast.  Braden Holtby was the number one goalie, and Neuvirth, who might have thought he had fought off his principal goaltending challenge when Semyon Varlamov was traded to Colorado in July 2011, was on the bench for opening night of the 2012-2013 season. 

Not that Neuvirth did not get a look early.   In his first two games of the season, Holtby…what is the technical term here?  Oh, yeah…stunk.  After allowing ten goals on 73 shots in his first two games (a .863 save percentage), Holtby was shown the bench, and Neuvirth took over with a chance to grab the job as number one goalie by the throat. 

It grabbed him, and not by the throat.  Maybe a bit lower.  In five consecutive starts he was 1-3-1, 2.98, .899.  It was hardly the stuff to inspire confidence that he was the guy.  Holtby returned for two more games and, well, was not very good (1-1-0, 4.00, ,860).  So…back to Neuvirth.  He got two more games.  Well, one and a half.  He lost a 3-2 decision to the Toronto Maple Leafs then was pulled in the 33^rd minute of a 5-2- loss to Pittsburgh after allowing two goals on 11 shots. 

Through his first seven appearances he was 1-4-1 (one no-decision), 3.05, .889. That pretty much settled things.  Neuvirth was not going to be the number one goalie in 2013.  In fact, he would not make another appearance for another month, getting mop-up duty in relief of Holtby in a 4-1 loss to the New York Rangers on March 10^th.

He did play respectably after that, getting five more appearances down the stretch in which he was 3-1-1, 2.39, .932.  The pecking order was set, though.  Holtby played superbly down the stretch, and Neuvirth proved a capable backup, but a backup, nonetheless.

Fearless’ Take…

Neuvirth has had a career that does not say “spectacular” as much as is says, “steely.”  Until last season he had experienced only one stretch of one season in which he had a sub-.900 save percentage (15 games with Oshawa in Canadian junior hockey in 2007-2008, .898).  He had only the one sub-.500 year in South Carolina.  He has a 34-15 record in the post season in the AHL and NHL with a 2.05 GAA, .924 save percentage and three shutouts.  Elite as a career ceiling might be a stretch, but his combination of technical soundness and a competitive streak hidden under a placid demeanor suggests that 2013 was something of an aberration in his career development.  Keep in mind, he still has only 130 games of NHL experience under his belt. 

Cheerless’ Take…

If you look at the 2009-2010 season – Neuvirth’s rookie season – and the goalies in that class, it’s pretty impressive.  Jimmy Howard, Tuukka Rask, Jonathan Bernier, Corey Crawford, Cory Schneider.  Neuvirth played in more games than Schneider, Crawford, and Bernier.  He had a better goals against average than Schneider and Crawford.  He had a better save percentage than Crawford and was only one point behind Schneider.  But that 2.75 goals against average and .914 save percentage doesn’t look a lot different than his career numbers (2.66, .910).  He has not made the progress we’d expect since then, and last season was a step back.

The Big Question… Can Neuvirth settle into a role as a backup in 2013-2014?

Neuvirth was the backup for the Caps last season, for all intents and purposes.  He just did not know that going into the season, he being in a competition with Braden Holtby for the number one spot.  This season, it’s different.  Absent injury or the utter collapse of his game, Holtby will be the starter this season, and Neuvirth will be the backup.  Everyone knows that going in.  Neuvirth has endured situations in which he was not the clear cut number one goalie, but it has been a while since his role as backup was this clearly defined.   If he cannot accept the role (and there are probably few NHL goaltenders his age who would “accept” such a role in their minds), can he adapt to it?

Even last season, Neuvirth’s appearances were not quite as intermittent of the sort one might expect in a backup goaltender.  Seven of his 13 appearances came in a nine-game span early in the year.  Then he played in three of four games in mid-March.  This year, with the league returning to an 82-game schedule, he stands to get somewhere between 25 and 35 appearances.  There will be slumps along the way that Holtby is likely to have to deal with, meaning Neuvirth might get more than a game in any given week.  But those instances, quite frankly, are not to be hoped for. 

So, the question is still out there… can Neuvirth settle into a role as a backup for 2013-2014?  There is little in his history to suggest a clear answer to that, but his ability to do just that – to give the Caps quality minutes when Holtby needs a breather – will be an important element on whether the Caps fight for a divisional title or struggle on the playoff bubble.

In the end…

There is a disturbing subtext to Michal Neuvirth’s numbers last season.  Against teams failing to make the playoffs he was 3-0-1, 2.21, .927.  On the other hand, against playoff teams he was 1-5-1, 3.01, .900.  That one win came in April against a Montreal Canadiens team that stumbled to a 4-6-0 finish.  He is going to have to step up his production against stiffer competition in what is likely a tougher division in which the Caps play this season.   His history says that he has it in him to rise to that challenge.  The difference this season is that he has to do it on an intermittent basis.  If he can thrive in that role, it would represent a comeback of sorts, and that is, as we have seen, a good word.

Projection: 30 games, 13-9-4, 2.61, .913

Photo: Justin K. Aller/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2013-2014 Previews -- Defensemen: Steve Oleksy

Steve Oleksy

Theme:
“You go back Jack do it again

Wheel turnin' 'round and 'round

You go back Jack do it again”

-- Walter Becker, Donald Fagen (Steely Dan)

If you look up the word “whirlwind” in the dictionary, you will find that it can mean “a confused rush,” or “something that involves many quickly changing events.”  The last three seasons for Washington Capitals defenseman Steve Oleksy might qualify.  In the 2010-2011 season Oleksy split time between the Idaho Steelheads of the ECHL and the Lake Erie Monsters of the NHL, teams in cities separated by more than 2,100 miles.  In the 2011-2012 season he split time between Idaho and the Bridgeport Sound Tigers, teams in towns separated by almost 2,600 miles.

In July 2012, Oleksy signed a free agent contract with the Hershey Bears.  With the National Hockey League in lockout lockdown, the Bears could get full and utter attention by the Capitals’ brain trust in player evaluation.  Oleksy made an impression.  In 55 games he recorded two goals and a dozen assists. But it was another number that might have left a lasting impression: 151.  That was the number of penalty minutes Oleksy compiled in his 55 games.  He had 11 fights with the Bears, four of them against their arch-rival Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins.  That brand of feistiness, along with his production from the blue line, earned him a three-year, two-way contract with the Caps in March.

Oleksy hardly found himself out of place with the big club.  In 28 games with the Caps he finished tied for third in total points (9), behind only Mike Green and John Carlson.  He was a plus-9, good for third among defensemen.  He was also third in total hits and was second on the club in fights.  His pugnacious character coupled with his surprising productivity made him a fan favorite in Washington.  Now…if he could just get a real player page at tsn.ca.

Fearless’ Take…

What sort of combination of productivity and feistiness did Oleksy bring last season?  If you look at all of the defensemen in the NHL, here is the complete list of defensemen who had at least nine points, finished plus-9 or better, and had three or more fights: Steve Oleksy.  That’s it.  In just 28 games.  And while the club as a whole finished the 2012-2013 season with a rush, the Caps were 19-8-1 in his 28 games with him in the lineup. 

His underlying numbers were pretty good, too.  His Corsi/on-ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 was second best among Caps defensemen playing in at least 20 games, and his relative Corsi (on-ice less off-ice) was best on the club among defensemen.  His PDO (sum of on ice team shooting percentage and save percentage) was third, just a few ticks behind John Erskine and Jack Hillen.  And for all the penalties he took (second among Caps defensemen in penalty minutes), he was the club’s best among defensemen at drawing penalties per 60 minutes (source: behindthenet.ca).

Cheerless’ Take…

Small sample size!  Small sample size!!  I heard that somewhere.  I don’t know what it means.  I just know that if I give our nephew Deerless a rifle and he shuts his eyes and plugs a 12-point buck, I ain’t gonna enter him in sharpshooting competitions right away.  I’m going to want to see him do it again.  Here’s what I’d be keeping in mind.  He had no points in his last six regular season games and only one assist in the seven-game playoff series against the New York Rangers.  He was 0-1-1, even in those last 13 games of the season.

The Big Question… What does Act II hold in store in “The Steve Oleksy Story?”

Steve Oleksy goes into the 2013-2014 season in somewhat rare company.  Since the 2004-2005 lockout, seven defensemen played in their second season in the NHL at the age of 28 or older (Oleksy will turn 28 next February):

• Jan Hejda
• Kent Huskins
• Mark Streit
• Jeff Finger
• Marek Zidlicky
• Deryk Engelland
• Petteri Nummelin

It is not a group with a lot of common elements.  Hejda, like Oleksy, finished with a 1-8-9 scoring line in his first season in 39 games (Oleksy played in 28 games).  His 0.23 points per game in his first season dropped in his second season (0.16), but his career level (0.22 points per game over seven seasons) is consistent with that first season.  Huskins had a rather meager first season on a points per game basis (0.09 in 33 games), but raised that to 0.21 points per game over his seven seasons.  Finger is in the same ball park (0.29 points per game), as is Engelland (0.19 points per game).

Streit is the class of this group in terms of his offense. But what might be noteworthy in his instance is how his offense has dropped off over his last four seasons (from 0.77 points-per-game to 0.56 last season).  For our purposes here, his second season represented a more than doubling of his offensive productivity (from 0.23 points per game to 0.47).  Zidlicky and Nummelin are between the poles of this discussion (0.53 and 0.32 points per game over their respective careers).

What it suggests is that Oleksy might be more Hejda than Streit, more Huskins than Zidlicky.  The thing to note about those seven defensemen is that all of them played in at least 63 games in their second season with the exception of Nummelin, and his problem was missing 18 games to injuries in the 2006-2007 season.  If Oleksy follows in this mold, his second act might not be spectacular, but he would be a contributing player for the Caps.

In the end…

Last season, Steve Oleksy was the very definition of the “pleasant surprise.”  He came out of nowhere to get a sweater every night and provided some timely production with a splash of in-your-face.  He comes into this season penciled in as a third-pair defenseman on the right side.  There is bound to be some lingering apprehension among Caps fans along the lines of “was last year for real?” 

The thing is, though, Oleksy is not just a banger, and he is not just an offensive defenseman.  At least he was neither of the "just" last season.  He was something of both, giving the Caps a dimension they lacked.  Mike Green and John Carlson might, in a certain light, be looked at as “two-way” defensemen (certainly Carlson more than Green), but neither have a pronounced physical dimension to their games.  John Erskine is physical, but has little in terms of offensive development.  Karl Alzner is more of a defensive defenseman who relies on the geometries of the game more than a physical edge.  Jack Hillen is more of an offensive type.  Even going down the developmental chain, it is hard to find a defenseman who brings the combination of abilities Oleksy demonstrated last season.

The operative phrase in the last sentence of the previous paragraph is “last season.”  The object of the exercise this season is to strike a balance between building on that without stepping outside the comfort level of his performance capabilities – of trying to do too much while trying to prove his value to the club.  He’s done that.  He just needs to take last year’s productivity and do it again.

Projection: 65 games, 4-11-15, plus-8

Photo: Joel Auerbach/Getty Images North America

Countdown to Opening Night by the Elements: Number 4

Four left for Fearless’ fearless foray into the elements of the periodic table, which brings us to…

Beryllium

Beryllium is an element you are not likely to find in these parts…or any parts, actually, either on earth or in the universe.  Even its ultimate manufacture is a rare event.  It is produced in stars, but it exists only briefly, destroyed by subsequent nuclear fusion in a star’s interior.   By the time a star matures, perhaps only 15 percent of the beryllium it produced is still around.

Here on earth, beryllium exists only incombination with other elements in minerals, often in gemstones such as emeralds or aquamarine (forms of “beryl”).  It possesses an odd physical characteristic in that sound is conducted unusually fast in it, a product of its low density. 

Its history begins in Egypt when it had applications as the mineral “beryl.”  In first century Rome, Pliny the Elder made the link between beryl and emerald, noting their similarities.  Two centuries later, the Greeks made progress in producing artificial beryl. 

It would not be until the late 18^th century, however, that more sophisticated chemical analysis could be performed on the substance.  Chemists in Germany and (yes) Sweden performed experiments on beryl and emerald that yielded consistent, if false, results.  They thought that they found silicates of aluminum, not a distinct element.

At the dawn of the 19^th century, Louis-Nicolas Vauquelin subjected emerald to his own chemical analysis, dissolving aluminum hydroxide from emerald in an alkali solution.  He was left with a new earth that he named “glucine.”  Why?  Because he tasted it (idiot) and found it to be sweet, like “glucose” (sugar).  Martin Henirich Klaproth, one of the early experimenters who thought he had aluminum silicate, thought a better name would be “beryllina,” perhaps named for his daughter (no, not really).  Friedrich Wöhler put an end to the nonsense and finally called the new element “beryllium.”

Today, most applications for beryllium are military in nature, but it does nave limited commercial applications.  Those would include its use in x-ray applications. However, because of the need for extremely pure samples, it is very expensive.  It is also used in particle research, its low density being a benefit to minimize interactions with particles that researchers wish to study. 

It has applications in rocketry, primarily in the manufacture of rocket nozzles, and in other aerospace sectors because of its structural stability.  One of the more exotic applications is in weather satellites where its low density and structural stability make it uniquely capable for use in large-area mirrors employed in such satellites.  It is an element in the manufacture of tools used in the disposal of explosive ordinance, since it is non-magnetic (many explosive devices have magnetic fuses).  Closer to home, or at least your home, it occasionally shows up in top-of-the-line audio speaker equipment.

What we have is an element that is short-lived, has some rather specialized uses, is found in gemstones, is characterized by high sound conductivity, and is low in density.  It sounds a bit like a player who might not have been around these parts long, had special talents on special teams, is slight of build, but who “conducts sound” by mouthing off on occasion to officials.

Beryllium… the “Mike Ribeiro” of the elements of the periodic table.

Washington Capitals 2013-2014 Previews -- Defensemen: Jack Hillen

Jack Hillen

Theme: “The firm, the enduring, the simple, and the modest are near to virtue.”

-- Confucius

On July 3, 2012, free agent defenseman Jack Hillen signed a contract with the Washington Capitals to pay him $700,000 for the 2012-2013 season. The importance of the signing on that date probably ranked somewhere between Dallas signing Jaromir Jagr and Philadelphia signing Danny Syvret.

Nevertheless, Hillen was in the lineup on the night of January 19, 2013, Opening Night of the delayed 2012-2013 season. The record would show that he stepped onto the ice for his first shift as a Capital at the 6:24 mark of the first period, lining up for a faceoff just after an Eric Brewer goal that gave the Tampa Bay Lightning a 1-0 lead.

Five shifts later, his evening was over, courtesy of a check by Vincent Lecavalier behind the Capitals’ net that caught Hillen awkwardly just as he was releasing a pass along the end wall. Hillen was crumpled into the end boards shoulder first. Lecavalier was not penalized on the play. However, 11:43 into his first game as a Cap, Hillen was out. He would miss 25 games and would not return until March 16th against Boston.

Hillen played the last 22 games of the 2012-2013 season and went 3-6-9, plus-8 over that span. Given that Hillen received largely third pair minutes and little in the way of special teams minutes (about a minute per game combined in power play and shorthanded ice time), it was a respectable scoring line.

That scoring line was even more impressive if one considers that in his first 12 games back from injury he managed to record only a single assist. Over his last ten games he was 3-5-8, plus-8, and had points in six of those ten games.

When all was said and done, he set career bests in goals and points per game (not counting the 2007-2008 season in which he played in two games). And, whether coincidence or his contributions as a depth defender, the Caps were 16-4-2 with Hillen in the lineup after he returned from his shoulder injury.

Fearless’ Take…

Hillen, either despite of or as a product of his being something of an undersized defenseman, is a meat and potatoes sort, not given to flash, but for keeping things simple. Among Caps defensemen appearing in at least 20 games last season he led the club in Corsi/on-ice, was second in Corsi relative (the difference between his on-ice and off-ice values), tied for the team lead in PDO (sum of on-ice team shooting and save percentages), was second on the team in differential between penalties drawn and penalties taken, and had the second best on-ice goals against average at 5-on-5 for the Caps (source: behindthenet.ca).

Cheerless’ Take…

Let me toss five numbers out there… 40, 69, 64, 55, 23. Those are the number of games Hillen played in each of his five full seasons. He has missed at least 45 games to injury over those five years (source: tsn.ca) for a variety of problems: foot, broken jaw, concussion, shoulder, and shoulder again. Durability has not been his hallmark. And whatever arbitrary standard you apply to scoring taakeaways and giveaways, his ratio of the former to the latter last year was not so good (2:13).

The Big Question… Is Jack Hillen a 50-game defenseman?

This could be an important question for the Caps because of the problems they have after their top three players at this position. When you get past Mike Green, John Carlson, and Karl Alzner, the drop off in talent and effectiveness is a bit precipitous. It is compounded by the fact that both John Erskine (the nominal “fourth” defenseman) and Hillen last year combined to play in only 53 games (roughly a full season’s worth in the shortened, 48-game season). And these are not anomalies. Erskine has played in more than 60 games in a season once in his 11 year career; Hillen has done so twice in five full seasons (though never as many as 70 games).

Hillen has averaged 50 games played in his five full NHL seasons. If that is what you can pencil him in for, then another defenseman – Dmitry Orlov, Tyson Starachan, Tomas Kundratek…someone – is going to have to fill that slot for a significant portion of the season.

In the end…

Jack Hillen is probably a better defenseman than he might be given credit for by Caps fans, perhaps a product of a low-key, keep it simple style. But there are durability issues that present serious problems for a club whose 4/5/6 defensemen might end up having to be filled by 7/8/9...or more defensemen over the course of the season. This is not, by itself, unusual. The Caps dressed 12 defensemen in 48 games last season.  Injuries happen, players are benched, kids in the minors do well enough to deserve a look.

Hillen’s problem in being able to stay in the lineup has not been a succession of nicks and dings, but rather having to miss big chunks of time. Nine games to a broken jaw in 2010… eight games to a concussion the next season… 25 games to a shoulder injury last season. He is one piece of a brittle and shallow port side of the defense, once you get past Karl Alzner on the top pair.  This is not something a team with playoff aspirations like the Caps can leave to a hope and a prayer that he will be a dependable and, more important, durable defenseman on the third pairing.

Projection:  55 games, 4-7-11, plus-4

Photo:  Jared Wickerham/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2013-2014 Previews -- Defensemen: Mike Green

Mike Green 

Theme:  "Give a man health and a course to steer, and he'll never stop to trouble about whether he's happy or not.”

-- George Bernard Shaw

“I think it’s time to become a dangerous player again.” Thus spoke Washington Capitals defenseman Mike Green last week.  The “again” reference reflects the fact that Green was the most dangerous offensive force from the blue line in the NHL until a series of injuries limited him to 116 of 212 regular season games over the past three seasons.  Before that, Green played in 225 of 246 regular season games and composed a 68-137-205 scoring line (a 25-50-75 average per 82 games) from 2007-2008 through 2009-2010.

Last season, Green came back…sort of.  In January 2012 Green underwent sports hernia surgery to “eliminate the unknown” with respect to his recurring groin problems.  Green returned in February of the 2011-2012 season but did not record a goal in his last 22 regular season games (0-1-1).  He had two in 14 playoff games that season (2-2-4), but was clearly not all the way back.

An off season to recuperate in full was supposed to solve the remaining problems, but even with the delayed start to the 2012-2013 season, Green missed 13 of the Caps’ first 29 games with a “lower body injury.”  He dressed for the last 19 games of the season for Washington, going 10-9-19.  He was a terror on the power play, going 4-7-11 on the man advantage over those last 19 games.  The four power play goals (his total for the season) would have put him in the top 50 defensemen in total goals scored, a feat made more impressive by the fact that he did it in only those 19 games to end the season.

As it was, Green ended the 2012-2013 season leading all defensemen in total goals – 12, a total that represented a 28-goal pace per 82 games.  He had a 43-goal pace over those last 19 games, which brought memories of 2008-2009 (31 goals in 68 games) to mind among Caps fans.  That is the line of a dangerous player.

Fearless’ Take…

As valuable and productive as Alex Ovechkin was last season, getting Green back to good health in the last 19 games last season was the push the Caps needed.  The Caps were 7-0-1 in games in which Green scored at least one goal (he had two against Carolina and Boston, both wins).  The Caps were 11-1-1 in games in which he recorded at least one point.

And before you think Green fattened up against the Southeast Division, he was 5-3-8 in 14 games against teams in the division, 7-11-18 in 21 games against teams outside the Southeast.

Even with all the games Green missed over the past three seasons, no defenseman has more goals scored than Green since the 2007-2008 season, and he is the active leader in points (second to retired Detroit Red Wings defenseman Nicklas Lidstrom).  Zdeno Chara is second among active defensemen in points to Green, but he has played in 104 more regular season games over that span of time than Green.

Cheerless’ Take…

For what it’s worth, Mike Green was tied for 34^th among defensemen in even strength points last season.  He had only four even strength assists.  That was a neighborhood that included T.J. Brennan, Eric Gryba, and Simon Depres.

Maybe it was related, but among 210 defensemen playing at least 20 games last season, Green was 125^th in Corsi/on-ice at 5-on-5.  And his Corsi/on-ice relative to Corsi/off-ice was 134^th among that group.  What it meant was that his goals-for/on-ice per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 ranked only 133^rd among those 210 defensemen, and his plus-minus/60 minutes at 5-on-5 ranked 136^th.

The Big Question… Is Mike Green healthy, or his he “healthy?”

It is September.  Mike Green has not played a regular season game yet.  He is healthy… fresh as a daisy (figuratively speaking).  So are dozens of other players at this time of year.  But the question is still out on whether he is “healthy,” as in “can he sustain himself to play in 70 or more games?”

This is an important question to settle as the season unfolds for this reason.  When Mike Green plays, the Caps win more often than not.  In the three years covering the 2007-2008 through 2009-2010 season the Caps won 133 of 225 games played by Green (50.2 percent).  These were his most durable years.  In the last three seasons the Caps won 66 of the 116 games he played (56.9 percent).  Even in less frequent appearances, Green’s presence coincided with success.

More to the point, over the last six seasons the Caps have won 73.1 percent of all the regular season games in which Green has registered at least one point.  How many games Green dresses for this season is going to go a long way to answering the question of whether this team can reach the playoffs under their new divisional alignment.  Not that this should be any news to Caps fans.

In the end…

Last season was Green’s second best of his career on a goals-per-game basis.  He registered his third highest points-per-game.  And even with his injury problems over the past three years, here is something to consider.  Green played 116 games over that span, average 0.20 goals per game and 0.49 points per game.  How other many defensemen played in at least that many games and had those averages or better for goals and points?  Three – Dustin Byfuglien, Erik Karlsson, and Shea Weber.  If not clearly the best offensive defenseman he was over that 2007-2008 through 2009-2010 period, he is part of a short list of such defensemen even now.

This is what makes the upcoming season so tantalizing.  If he has put his injury plague behind him, Green is not so far removed from being one of, if not the most prolific point producers from the blue line in the NHL.  If he was to play in 70 games and produce as he did the last three seasons, he would finish with a scoring line of 14-20-34.  If, however, he was to return to that level of production he enjoyed from 2007-2008 through 2009-2010, a 70-game season would mean a scoring line of 21-43-64.  We suspect his production will fall between those boundaries.  It would still make him plenty dangerous.

Projection: 72 games, 17-32-49, plus-4

Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America

Countdown to Opening Night by the Elements: Number 6

Fearless has gone on with this series almost as long as some legislators filibuster.  But now he is down to a six-pack of elements…

Carbon

The discovery of carbon dates back about six millennia, to the Egyptians and Sumerians in the manufacture of bronze.  On particular form of carbon – diamonds – were known of more than four millennia ago in China.  It might have been known of and used as charcoal in the earliest of human civilizations.

Since those early beginnings carbon has occupied a central place in human social, industrial and biological evolution.  Beginning with the latter, carbon is the basis for all organic life on this planet.  This is a product of its unique ability to form long-chains binding with other carbon atoms, and to its unique chemical bond characteristics.  It employs these characteristics to form simple sugars, complex carbohydrates, alcohols, fats, amino acids (from which proteins assemble), nucleic acids, adenosine triphosphate (the most important chemical you probably have never heard of – it is the basis for energy transfer in all living cells), and a variety of more exotic organic compounds.

It is an element that remains constant in volume on earth, meaning that when carbon is a part of physical processes, it must come from somewhere (or something) and be deposited somewhere else (or in something else).  This “carbon cycle” of inputs and outputs is reflected in such processes as carbon respiration in plants and in consumption and metabolism of nutrients.

Which brings us to its industrial evolution.  Its discovery as an element starts in 1722 with René Antoine Ferchault de Réaumur (“Grande Toni,” for short) transforming iron into steel by introducing an intermediary element.  That element would be carbon.   Fifty years later Antoine Lavoisier (“Petit Toni” for short) demonstrated that diamond is a form of carbon.  Just two years after that, Carl Wilhelm Scheele (who for some reason was nicknamed, “Swedish Toni”) showed that graphite was yet another form of carbon.  It was left to Lavoisier to settle on the name for the element, identifying it as “carbon” in a chemical textbook he published in 1789.

Having been identified as occurring in a number of different forms was not enough.  It was found to be the essential element of crude oil and comprising the structural element of plants (through cellulose, an extremely long chain carbon-based molecule).  Given these forms and sources, it became the basis for a huge variety of applications, including: steel manufacture, “lead” pencils (in which the “lead” is primarily graphite), dry batteries, paint and ink, food preparation (charcoal grilling), structural carbon fiber, electroplating, nuclear power generation (as a neutron moderator in reactors), and plastics.

It is one of the rare elements that has incorporated itself in the social evolution of man, primarily in its diamond form.  They are a girl’s best friend, they serve as the basis for commitment for couples, they serve to signal significant anniversaries.

We have an element that is the centerpiece of living processes, an element that is central to the inputs and outputs of biology.  It is an element that takes many forms and has many applications, limited only it seems by the imagination of those searching for applications.  It has an important place in the social fabric of human history.  It is not unlike a figure who occupies a central role in the life of a hockey team, one concerned with the inputs and outputs of the on-ice product, one whose imagination can mold its many forms into a variety of strategies and approaches for winning hockey.

Carbon…the “Adam Oates” of the elements of the periodic table.

Tonight! A Special Event!! (well, maybe)