Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 22

Week 22 was a week that might have been supremely satisfying, but when it was over was something of a disappointment, what with two losses to a hated rival and a win that was all too close for comfort.  And some of the same things that went wrong in Week 21 went wrong in Week 22.

Record: 1-2-0

Week 22 was the second straight below-.500 week for the Caps and the fourth in the last seven weeks.  The two losses came to the Pittsburgh Penguins in a home-and-home back-to-back set that opened the week.  The losses made the Caps 0-7-0 against the Penguins under head coach Adam Oates and 0-8-0 overall since January 2012.  The eight consecutive regular season wins is a record for the Penguins in the history of this series.  Once upon a time, the Caps won nine in a row in this series, but Alex Ovechkin was two months old when the Caps won the last of those nine games in November 1985.

Washington salvaged a measure of the week with a 4-3 win over the Vancouver Canucks on Friday.  It was the first time the Caps beat the Canucks since winning a 5-2 decision at Verizon Center on October 13, 2008.  The Caps had dropped four straight decisions to Vancouver.  All in all, the Caps started the week in 5^th place in the Metropolitan Division and 10^th place in the Eastern Conference.  They ended the week in those same positions, three points behind Philadelphia for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

Offense: 2.00/game (season: 2.78 / rank: 14th)

It was an uneven week for the Caps in the offensive end of the ice, and what offense they could muster was generally weak.  The Caps managed only two goals on 65 shots in two games against the Penguins, potting both against Pittsburgh backup Jeff Zatkoff in the game at Verizon Center to open the week, then getting shutout by Marc-Andre Fleury in Pittsburgh in the second of the back-to-back games.

One thing the Penguins were able to do that most teams could not was hold down Alex Ovechkin’s shot totals.  Ovechkin went into the week averaging 5.35 shots per game, his 332 shots being tops in the league by 86 shots over Toronto’s Phil Kessel.  Ovechkin was held to a total of five shots over the two games against the Penguins.  Goals from Eric Fehr and Nicklas Backstrom in the first of the games and none in the second was not enough to make up the difference.

The Caps got well, to a point, against Vancouver.  Washington scored three goals in less than 33 minutes with eight different Caps sharing in the points.  Evgeny Kunzetsov, playing in his third NHL game had assists on the last two of those three goals.  The Caps would need a third assist from Kuznetsov after the Canucks tied the game in the third period.  They got it when he and Nicklas Backstrom set up Mike Green for the game-winner to close the week.

Defense: 2.67/game (season: 2.91 / rank: 23rd)

It was a strange week in the defensive end of the ice.  The Caps out-shot the Penguins badly (33-20) in the first game of the week and lost, 3-2.  They held their own in shots in the second game of the Penguins, Pittsburgh holding a two-shot margin (34-32) at the end and beating the Caps, 2-0.  Then, in the last game of the week, Vancouver rang up 41 shots to 21 for the Caps, yet the Caps won, 4-3. 

It was an equal opportunity week for being present for goals against, too.  Sixteen different skaters were on ice for opponents’ goals.  Dmitry Orlov was on ice for five goals against for the week, most of any Capital.  Orlov’s difficulties might have contributed to his being moved to the third defensive pair with Connor Carrick off the second pair with Mike Green.  Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom were on ice for four apiece to lead, so to speak, the forwards.  Only Dustin Penner and Tom Wilson escaped having a goal-against on ice marked in their ledger.

It was an odd possession week for the Caps.  Both their Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages were on the good side of 50 percent in 5-on-5 close score situations for the week (52.3 percent and 54.7 percent, respectively), and yet their record was 1-2-0.  The Caps dominated Pittsburgh in the first game of the week (58.6 percent and 64.3 percent) in close score situations and lost.  That was the game that ran against expectations, given the underlying possession numbers.  In the rematch against the Pens the Caps lost the possession battle (43.3 percent/42.6 percent) and lost the game.  In the last game of the week the Caps won the close score possession matchup (55.6 percent and 59.0 percent) and won.  

Goaltending: 2.71 / .916 (season: 2.80 / .915 / 3 SO)

Week 22 belonged to the new guy, Jaroslav Halak, who got all the minutes.  While he played well in spots, he did not move the needle this week in terms of the goaltending numbers overall, his goals against average and save percentage for the week being almost identical to the season numbers so far.  What he lacked was consistency by period.  Halak allowed at least one first period goal in each game, stopping 29 of 33 shots overall (.879 save percentage).  He allowed goals in the third period twice for the week, once in the second game against Pittsburgh, twice against Vancouver to finish the week with 29 third period saves on 32 shots (.906).  It was in the second period in which Halak shined, stopping 29 of 30 shots (.967 save percentage).

Power Play: 2-for-8 / 25.0 percent (season: 23.3 percent / rank: 2nd)

This week, the power play was the product of persistence.  It was the fourth week in the last five in which the Caps finished with a power play conversion rate of 25 percent or better, but it did not come easy.  Washington had two power play goals on 21 shots (9.5 percent shooting) over 12:56 of total power play time.  For shots on goal the Caps did not lack.

Nine different Caps had power play shots on goal, four of them – Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Jason Chimera, and Troy Brouwer – getting three apiece.  Ovechkin and Backstrom were the only ones to convert during the week.  It was perhaps the frustration the power play had against the Penguins, the number-one penalty killing team in the league when they faced the Caps, that tipped the week into the red.  The Caps were 1-for-6 against the Penguins, registering their only goal on a total of 16 shots on goal (6.25 percent shooting).

Penalty Killing: 7-for-8 / 87.5 percent (season: 80.6 percent / rank: T-24th)

We have said it before, but with this team the key is more controlling opportunities for the opposition on the power play more than stopping them once they have to kill a penalty.  A suspect penalty killing squad limits its exposure and marshals its effort when the chances are few.  Such was the case this week, with opponents getting only eight power play opportunities.  Three games with three or fewer made it six straight contests in which the Caps held opponents to that threshold.  Going 7-for-8 on the penalty kill made it 10-for-13 over that same span.  A 76.9 percent penalty kill over the last six games is hardly the picture of efficiency, hence the need to keep chances down.

It seemed to be more a case of the goaltender being the best penalty killer in Week 22.  Jaroslav Halak stopped 17 of 18 power play shots in 13:19 of ice time, a .944 save percentage that is far better than his .883 save percentage in shorthanded situations overall.  There is a lingering problem with the Caps and penalty killing.  Their shutdown guys are not doing much shutting down.. John Carlson (32) and Karl Alzner (28) rank first and fourth on the list of defensemen having power play goals scored against on-ice this season.

Even Strength Goals Scored For/Against: 4-7 (season 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio: 0.90 / rank: 21st)

The Caps seem stuck at that 0.90 ratio of 5-on-5 goals scored to goals against ratio.  The Caps have traded in a very narrow band, between 0.90 and 0.93 for the last three months.  They have not been as high as 0.94 since Week 9.

This week the Caps had a disturbing deficit in third period even strength goals scored.  They managed one for the week – the game winner against Vancouver to end the week – but allowed three.  One of them was the insurance goal in the Penguins’ 2-0 win over the Caps on Tuesday, and two of them allowed Vancouver to tie their game against the Caps on Friday.

The Caps were out-shot for the week at evens, 77-65.  That was largely a product of being lapped by the Canucks in Friday’s game.  Vancouver out-shot the Caps by a 34-16 margin at even strength.  Couple that with the shooting efficiency – the Caps shot to a 6.2 percent mark, while opponents finished at 11.1 percent – and it made for a difficult week for the Caps.

Faceoffs: 72-157 / 45.9 percent (season: 49.1 percent / rank: 21st)

Week 22 was more two different weeks for the Caps in the faceoff circle, the one they played against the Penguins and the one they played against the Canucks.  The Caps were abused by the Penguins on faceoffs over their back-to-back set, winning only 37 of 99 draws (37.4 percent).  It was probably not quite as bad as it seems, though.  A lot of that was piled up in the neutral zone where the Caps were just 4-for-30 over the two games (13.3 percent).  In the offensive end they were 18-for-40 (45.0 percent) and 15-for-29 in the defensive zone (51.7 percent). 

Against Vancouver it was a different story, mostly – but not entirely – good.  The Caps were 35-for-58 against the Canucks overall (60.3 percent), but they took 24 of 58 total draws in their own end (18 in the offensive end).  Winning 18 of them (75.0 percent) lessened the pain of taking so many defensive zone draws, but that was more time spent starting plays in the Caps’ end of the ice than one might like to see.

Goals for/Against by Period:

The Caps started and ended games poorly, if the goal differential by period means much.  Outscored 4-2 in the opening period of games and by a 3-1 margin in the third, it was a recipe for a 1-2-0 week. If not for a Mike Green laser in the third period – the Caps' only third period goal of the week – the Caps might have lost the lead entirely against Vancouver after building a two-goal lead and making it an 0-3-0 or 0-2-1 wek, the last think this club needs at this time of year.

In the End…

It could have been better.  The optimist might say that the Caps outplayed the Penguins in the first game of the week and shot in bad luck.  That makes for interesting bar discussion or blog narrative, but the fact is that the Caps earned no points while looking better is no consolation.  Week 22 ended up being the fifth losing week in the last nine for the Capitals, and if you are keeping score on their tough 14-game stretch to open March, the Caps are 3-4-1 in their first eight games with a west coast trip yet to come. 

The Caps have four games coming up in Week 23, including that trip to California to face Anaheim, San Jose, and Los Angeles after their contest against Toronto on Sunday afternoon.  Splitting these four games is about the least the club can afford at this stage.  Anything less, and the Caps are going to find themselves fading out of the playoff conversation.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 69: Maple Leafs at Capitals, March 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their brief two-game home stand on Sunday afternoon, hosting the Toronto Maple Leafs at Verizon Center.  The Caps will be trying to shave some of the deficit they have between themselves and a playoff spot, while the Maple Leafs try to cement their oddly assumed spot in the post-season.

Odd, you say, Peerless?  Well, yeah.  Despite the fact that Toronto comes into this game with a 36-24-8 record, good for second in the Atlantic Division and third in the Eastern Conference, consider that the Maple Leafs…

• Have been outscored 203-192 this season
• Have been out-shot by 7.7 shots per game (27.7 for, 36.4 percent against, the latter being worst in the league)
• Have a penalty kill that ranks 28^th in the league…yes, even worse than Washington’s
• Has allowed more 5-on-5 goals than all but seven teams in the league
• Has allowed more shorthanded goals than all but two teams in the league
• Has just two wins this season when trailing after two periods; only Detroit has fewer wins (1).
• Has more penalty minutes per game than all but two teams
• Has allowed more third period goals than every team except the New York Islanders

You have to wonder just how it is that the Maple Leafs have sustained such a lofty perch in the standings.  While you are wondering, consider as well that Toronto comes into this game having won four of their last five games after stumbling out of the Olympic break with three straight losses.  It has not been a dominant run for the Leafs over these five games.  Two of the four wins came in extra time, and another was a one-goal decision. 

However, four wins in five games is, if not impressive in this case, then effective in moving the Leafs closer to clinching a playoff spot.  In those five games, Tyler Bozak leads the team in goals and points (3-2-5), including the overtime game-winner in the Leafs’ 3-2 win over the New York Rangers on March 5^th to open this stretch.  He is, however, without a point in his last two games, the first time he has gone without a point in consecutive games since January 23/25.  In the 14 games since then, Bozak is 6-9-15.  He is 2-4-6 in 13 career games against the Caps.

Jake Gardiner is the other Maple Leaf with three goals over this five-game stretch.  Those three goals made the defenseman the eighth Toronto player to hit the 20-point plateau this season and set a career high in goals (eight), surpassing the seven goals he recorded in his rookie season in 2011-2012.  He is 0-1-1 in seven career games against Washington.

With Gardiner reaching the 20-point mark with those three goals, the Maple Leafs are now one of four teams with four 20-point producers on defense (Calgary, Chicago, and Columbus being the others).  One of them is Morgan Rielly, whose 22 points ranks him seventh among rookie defensemen in the league.  His 20 assists is second among rookie defensemen to Boston’s Torey Krug.

On a team that faces as many shots as do the Leafs, goaltenders are tested.  Take Jonathan Bernier, for instance.  Bernier has received most of the work in goal this season (50 appearances in 68 games), and his 2.61 goals-against average ranks only 26^th in the league.  However, he also faces 35.0 shots per 60 minutes.  It is his sixth-ranked .925 save percentage that keeps him on the first page of the goals-against rankings among NHL goalies.  Bernier is 2-1-0, 2.01, .925 in three career appearances against the Caps.  Similarly for James Reimer, who appears likely to get the start in this game (Bernier is injured), his 3.23 goals against average ranks 41st among 43 qualifying goalies in the league, but his save percentage of .914 ties him for 22nd in the league, the disparity in rankings being a product of his facing 37.4 shots per 60 minutes. 

Here is how the two teams break down overall in their respective numbers:

1.  When Toronto scores, they win.  The Maple Leafs have not lost in regulation time when scoring four or more goals in the hockey portion of contests (that is, not including shootout wins that resulted in four-goals-for results).  They are 21-0-4 in 25 such contests.

2.  Toronto does not lose one-goal games, not in regulation that is.  The four one-goal losses in regulation time is the second fewest such losses in the league so far.  Only Anaheim (2) has fewer).

3.  Toronto’s power play has been in an extended dry spell.  Over their last 11 games the Maple Leafs are 2-for-25 (8.0 percent).  Those two power play goals have come in their last three games, though, both of them wins.

4.  Those last three games happened to be a west coast road trip for Toronto that saw them win twice in three contests (3-1 over Anaheim and 3-2 over Los Angeles sandwiched around a 6-1 loss to San Jose).  The Leafs went 2-1-0 on the trip despite being out-shot 133-73.  Toronto was lit up in their possession statistics over those three games, posting a cumulative Corsi-for percentage in 5-on-5 close score situations of 30.1 and a cumulative Fenwick-for percentage of 31.9.  Despite those woeful numbers, the Maple Leafs had a cumulative PDO of 1.031 (shooting percentage plus save percentage) in those situations.

5.  There is no delicate way to say this.  When it comes to possession overall, Toronto stinks.  The Maple Leafs are dead last in both Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages in all situations.  They are dead last in both at 5-on-5.  Only Buffalo is worse in 5-on-5 close score situations.  Toronto is hell bent on demonstrating that there is a winning exception to the rule that in possession lays the key to success.

1.  The Caps have dressed 11 rookies this season.  Compare that to last season when they dressed three.  The 11 rookies are the most dressed by the Caps in a season since they dressed 11 in the 2005-2006 season.  At the moment, only Tom Wilson, Connor Carrick, and Evgeny Kuznetsov are rookies skating with the club.

2.  Only Nicklas Backstrom among the Capitals ranks among the top-50 in faceoff winning percentage.  He is 50^th with a 49.8 percent.

3.  Capitals rank 1-2 in power play scoring.  Nicklas Backstrom is first (4-32-36), and Alex Ovechkin is second (19-14-33).

4.  No rookie forward has played in so many games and averaged so little ice time as Tom Wilson.  He averages 7:23 in ice time in 68 games, yet he is still tied for 35^th of 112 rookie forwards in goals scored (3) and 36^th in points (9).

5.  The Caps have not been able to escape the bottom ten in possession statistics.  They rank 23^rd in Corsi-for in 5-on-5 close score situations (48.8 percent) and 22^nd in Fenwick-for (48.5 percent).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Toronto: James van Riemsdyk

Streaks have been the hallmark of James van Riemsdyk’s game lately.  From January 25^th through February first he had points in four consecutive games (2-4-6).  After being held off the score sheet against Florida on February 4^th, he ran off another four-game points treak (4-3-7).  A three-game streak without a point followed, but van Riemsdyk comes into this game with points in each of his last three games (0-3-3).  He has been especially effective on the road this season, tied with teammate Phil Kessel for sixth place in goals scored away from Air Canada Centre (16).  He is 3-6-9 in his last seven road games and is 1-1-2 in two games overall against Washington this season.

Washington:  Alex Ovechkin

Of the top-140 point producers at even strength, only one player has fewer than ten assists: Alex Ovechkin.  Ovechkin is tied for second in the league in goals at even-strength with 26, but he has only nine assists at evens.  Consider that he has more than 100 shots on goal at even-strength (206-105) more than Nicklas Backstrom and almost 150 more than frequent linemate Marcus Johansson (206-66), and it is not hard to figure out why it might be that Ovechkin has so few even-strength assists.  Backstrom and Johansson have a combined ten goals at even-strength.  Ovechkin is obviously the go-to guy on the top line and on the team at-large, but one wonders if it is not too much of a good thing, or at least not enough of something else.  One would expect Ovechkin to add to his total in this game; he is 2-1-3 in two games this season against Toronto and 27-22-49 in 32 career games against the Maple Leafs. 

Keys:

1.  Score Four.  Toronto has not won a game this season in regulation when allowing four or more goals.  The Maple Leafs are 2-14-5 when allowing four or more, both wins coming in extra time.  The Caps being 22-3-2 in games in which they score four or more goals, that four goal threshold seems pretty safe as a predictor of a win.

2.  Second Line Surge.  Troy Brouwer has one even strength goal in his last nine games (he does have three power play goals).  Dustin Penner does not have a goal for the Caps since his trade from Anaheim and does not have one in his last dozen games overall.  Brooks Laich is on-again off-again in the lineup.  Mikhail Grabovski has not been in the lineup since skating just 2:20 on February 27^th.  Evgeny Kuznetsov might get time there after spending much of his introduction to the NHL skating on the fourth line.  Between juggling the lineup, injuries, and uneven production, the second line has been quiet.  Given that Toronto is so generous in terms of shot attempts allowed, the second line – whatever that might be – should get their chances.

3.  Don’t get boxed in.  Toronto has had more than three power play opportunities in only two of their last 14 games.  Only four teams have had fewer man advantages than the Maple Leafs this season overall, but Toronto does rank 12^th in opportunities on the road.  The Caps are 5-13-4 in their last 22 games when allowing teams four or more power plays.  Stay out of the box.

In the end…

The Caps have not won consecutive games since their four-game winning streak ended on March 1^st.  They need to get a streak put together, win games in bunches.  Trouble is, a team cannot play games in bunches, just one at a time.  And with the trip to the west coast to face Anaheim, San Jose, and Los Angeles looming, it would be easy to look past this game.  Sure, you would not think so, given the Caps’ situation, but this team has an odd tendency not to show up in games in which they need to do just that.  That said, Toronto is a very accommodating team when it comes to other teams’ offense, relying a lot on the performance of their goalies.  There will not be a “hot goalie” on Sunday.

Capitals 5 – Maple Leafs 3

Washington Capitals: A TWO-point Night -- Game 68: Capitals 4 - Canucks 3

Jazz fans out there might know of a Miles Davis album titled, “Birth of the Cool.”  Last night at Verizon Center, fans of the Washington Capitals might have seen the debut of their own “Birth of the Kool.”  As in “Kuznetsov.”

Evgeni Kuznetsov recorded his first NHL point, an assist on a power play goal by Alex Ovechkin, then added a pair of assists, including a helper on what would be the game-winning goal by Mike Green in the Caps’ 4-3 win over the Vancouver Canucks last night at Verizon Center.

Not that the game was without its tense moments for the Caps.  Joel Ward got things going for the home team mid-way through the first period.  It was a case of something we have not seen the Caps accomplish much lately: speed in numbers through the neutral zone.  Jason Chimera took a pass from Ward at the red line and charged down the left side with Ward and Eric Fehr in tow, backing off the Vancouver defense.  As Chimera got to the far edge of the left wing circle, he threw the puck to the front of the net where Fehr was coming late.  Defenseman Ryan Stanton stuck his leg out to try to interrupt Fehr’s shot.  Goalie Eddie Lack looked as if he was synced to Stanton, sticking his left pad out to defend the shot.  Lack’s move left him lying on his side at the edge of his crease and unable to defend when Fehr’s shot rebounded off the end boards back onto his stick.  Fehr took another swipe at it, pushing the puck to the other side of the crease where Ward had an empty net to shoot at.  Ward slid the puck in, and the Caps had the early lead.

Jordan Schroeder tied the game three minutes later after the Caps had a “Keystone Caps" moment.  Mike Green collected a loose puck in the slot in front of goalie Jaroslav Halak and tried to move it up to Alex Ovechkin circling to head up ice.  The ice traffic controller was not doing his job, though.  Jay Beagle was just a few feet in front of Ovechkin and in his path, and Dan Hamhuis was closing to defend for the Canucks. A mid-ice collision ensued, Ovechkin hitting both Beagle and Hamhuis, sending both to the ice.  In the ensuring confusion, with the puck finding its way to the left wing boards, Zack Kassian found it and backhanded it to Schroeder in the high slot.  Schroeder stepped in and wristed it over Halak’s glove and the game was tied going into the first intermission.

The it became The Kuznetsov Show.  In the ninth minute of the second period and Tom Sestito off for Vancouver on a hooking penalty, Joel Ward won a faceoff in the Canucks’ end to John Carlson at the right point.  Carlson slid the puck to Alex Ovechkin at the left wing circle, but Ovechkin’s one-time went wide off the glass.  Kuznetsov recovered the puck and assumed the Nicklas Backstrom position at the right wing wall looking over the play.  Kuznetsov sent the puck out to Carlson at the point, and Carlson reloaded the rifle on the left wing, Ovechkin one-timed Carlson’s pass past Lack, and the Caps had the lead, Kuznetsov recording his first NHL point.

Four minutes later it was the fourth line’s turn to shine.  One could not have drawn this up any prettier.  Mike Green backed off to his own blue line to control the tempo of the play and then slid the puck across to defenseman partner Jack Hillen.  Hillen sent the puck up to Jay Beagle steaming through the neutral zone.  As Beagle crossed the red line he found Kuznetsov on the left wing at the Vancouver blue line.  Kuznetsov skated down the boards and wound up as if to let fly with a slap shot.  Instead, he sent a slap pass to Tom Wilson skating through the right wing faceoff circle. Wilson deftly handled the hard pass and wristed the puck over Lack’s glove into the top corner, and the Caps had a two-goal lead going into the second intermission.

Two-goal lead…two-goal lead.  You know what is coming.  Vancouver wiped that out in the span of three minutes early in the third period. Chris Higgins got the comeback started when he finessed the puck around defenseman Connor Carrick at the left wing wall in the Caps’ end, then found the late trailer Shawn Matthias for an uncontested wrist shot in the slot that eluded Halak.  Then it was Niklas Jensen taking a pass from Higgins, firing a snap shot under the arm of Karl Alzner trying to block the shot, and celebrating his first NHL goal when the puck found its way past Halak’s blocker to tie the game at 3-3.

The Caps had one more goal in them, though.  It started with Kuznetsov using his skating ability and long reach to circle the puck around the Vancouver net with Alexander Edler trying to separate him from the biscuit.  Circling out from Lack’s right, Kuznetsov snapped the puck to the front of the net where Nicklas Backstrom deadened it with his skate.  Backstrom skated the puck back around behind the net and sent it out to Mike Green in the high slot.  Green dialed up an old favorite, a wrist shot that went high over Lack’s glove and into the top of the net for the game-winner, Caps 4-3.

Other stuff…

-- We told of an instance in a recent game against the Pittsburgh Penguins of the Penguins treating the Caps like skating drill pylons, moving the puck among all five skaters in moving the puck the length of the ice for a goal over a six second span.  Well, give credit where it is due.  The Caps did just that on the Tom Wilson goal.  Mike Green, Jack Hillen, Jay Beagle, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Tom Wilson – the goal scorer – all touched the puck on a play that took eight seconds to complete.

-- Kuznetsov is already tied for 20^th on the team in assists.

-- When the Caps gave up a two-goal lead in the third period it was the 12^th two-goal lead they surrendered this season, the fifth time they did it in the third period.

-- In case you are wondering, Evgeny Kuznetsov is not the youngest Cap ever to record three or more assists in a game.  Not even close.  Nicklas Backstrom, for example, did it eight times by the time he reached Kuznetsov’s age (shoulda come earlier, kid).  But doing it in his third game with the Caps?  Yes, that’s special.

-- The Caps have had their lunch taken and eaten in front of them in the faceoff circle lately.  Last night it was the Caps’ turn to dine at the opponent’s expense, winning 35 of 58 draws (60.3 percent).  Nicklas Backstrom won 13 of 14 faceoffs (92.9 percent).  He lost the only draw he took against Jordan Schroeder for his only loss on the night.

-- The Caps killed all three shorthanded situations they faced.  It made it two games in a row, the first time they were perfect on penalty killing in consecutive games since February 4/6.  And it was there that the Caps established a foothold for success.  Halak turned away five Vancouver shots on two power plays in the first 15 minutes in the first period.

-- Score effects… Vancouver dominated the overall possession statistics for the game, a 60.2 percent Corsi-for percentage and a 58.4 percent Fenwick-for percentage.  At even strength it was only slightly less dominant: 55.6/55.2).  But in close score situations?  The Caps led here, a 55.6 percent Corsi-for percentage and 59.0 Fenwick-for percentage.  Another way to saying that the Caps let a club back into the game when they had it in hand.

-- Is there something to this keeping shots to the outside thing?  Of the 74 shot attempts allowed to Vancouver, 20 of them came from defensemen.  Then again, the Canucks had 20 shot attempts by defensemen for the evening, the Caps had a total of 21 shots on goal for the game.

-- Tom Wilson… five shot attempts, four hits, three shots on goal, plus-two, one goal.  A partridge in a pear tree was waiting for him in his locker after the game.

-- Kuznetsov gets the kudos for his three-point night, but almost as noteworthy is that nine other Caps recorded points (all singles).  That’s spreading things around.

-- For Mike Green, his goal was his first even strength goal since January 28^th and his first game winner since that same date when he had a pair of goals in a 5-4 overtime win over Buffalo.

-- The three goals scored by Vancouver was only the second time they reached the three-goal mark in their last 13 games.  They lost both times (the other a 7-4 loss to the New York Islanders).

In the end…

They sure made it interesting, more so than perhaps they needed.  But two points is two points.  It means that the Caps have closed to within a point of Philadelphia for the last playoff spot, although the Flyers hold three games in hand on the Caps.  And that means that there is more work – a lot more work – to do.  But Washington might have introduced a new player in the band.  Evgeny Kuznetsov did it with his stick on the Wilson goal and with his skates on the Green game-winner, displaying a virtuosity the club certainly could use going down the stretch. 

Kool.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 68: Canucks at Capitals, March 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-Let’s get rrrrrrrready to CRUMBL-L-L-L-L-L-L-L-LE!!!

The Washington Capitals host the Vancouver Canucks on Friday night at Verizon Center in a matchup of teams seeing their playoff chances melting faster than an ice cube in Death Valley. 

Take Vancouver, for instance.  On December 29^th, the Canucks were 23-11-6, their 52 standings points being sixth in the Western Conference, but only five points behind the third-place St. Louis Blues.  Since then, however, the Canucks are 7-17-4, they have had four losing streaks of at least three games in length, they have not won consecutive games since January 18/21 (against Calgary and Edmonton, which should hardly count), and their 70 standings points are 10^th in the West, four points behind the Dallas Stars for a wild card berth, the Stars holding three games in hand.

As for the Caps?  On December 20^th they were a respectable 19-13-3, their 41 standings points being fifth in the Eastern Conference but only four points behind third-place Tampa Bay.  Since then the Caps are 11-14-7, that record made faintly respectable by a four-game winning streak wrapped around the February Olympic break.  The Caps have three losing streaks of at least three games over their last 32 games, including a seven-game skid (0-5-2) in January that pushed them from fifth in the East to 12^th place in the conference.  They have not recovered.

These are teams clearly in, if not transition, then in search of some stability.  And nowhere is this more evident than in goal.  In Vancouver, goaltending has been an issue for quite some time.  You could say it goes back to the Canucks’ Stanley Cup final season in 2010-2011 when Roberto Luongo took the lion’s share of the work (60 appearances), but still had to endure the oft-stated opinion that Cory Schneider (25 appearance that season) was going to be, if he was not already, the best option in the Vancouver net.  It did not get better for Luongo when he dropped four of the last five games in the Cup final, allowing 18 goals on 117 shots (.846 save percentage).

In 2011-2012 the two goalies divided the work more evenly, Luongo getting 55 appearances, Schneider getting the call 33 times.  It was Schneider that put up superior numbers though, a better GAA (1.96 to 2.41) and a better save percentage (.937 to .919).  When Luongo lost Games 1 and 2 in the first round of the playoffs to the Los Angeles Kings, Schneider was given the task of repairing the damage.  He didn’t, although he played well, stopping 97 of 101 shots (.960 save percentage) in Games 3-5, two of which he lost to close out the Canucks.

Then, in 2012-2013, Schneider became the number one netminder, making 30 appearances to Luongo’s 20 as rumors and stories spread about where Luongo would be traded.  Luongo stuck around, however, and even put up superior numbers splitting time with Schneider in the first round of the playoffs against San Jose.  Neither could prevent a San Jose Sharks sweep in that series, though, so it was going to be another off-season of pick-a-goalie. 

Until draft day.  On June 30, 2013, it would be Cory Schneider who was traded.  The New Jersey Devils sent their first round draft pick to the Canucks for Schneider, essentially restoring Luongo to the number one-spot in the Canucks net.  And so it was.  Until it wasn’t.  Luongo appeared in 42 games for the Canucks this season until, at the trade deadline, he was sent to the Florida Panthers, along with forward Steven Anthony, for goalie Jacob Markstrom and forward Shawn Matthias.

Which brings us to Eddie Lack.  Except for 19:48 of ice time (that being Markstrom’s contribution to a 6-1 loss to the Dallas Stars on March 6^th) the net since the trading deadline has belonged to young Mr. Lack, an undrafted 26-year old rookie from Norrtälje, Sweden.  He has 30 appearances with the Canucks this season, posting an 11-12-4 record with a 2.28 goals against average and .918 save percentage with three shutouts.   He is tied for third in wins among rookie goaltenders (behind the 12 that Antti Raanta has with Chicago and the 15 that Frederik Andersen has with Anaheim), tied for second in GAA (with Andersen) among rookies making at least 15 appearances, and fifth in that group in save percentage.

Lack is not just a placeholder, although his numbers have slipped of late.  He has appeared in each of the eight games for the Canucks since the Olympic break, posting a record of 3-4-1, 2.45, .906, with a shutout of St. Louis on February 26^th.  Lack has never faced the Caps.

The usual suspects have topped the offensive rankings for the Canucks, the Brothers Sedin and Ryan Kesler.  Henrik Sedin is 10-31-41, his brother Daniel is 13-27-40, and Kesler is 22-18-40.  On the surface having three 40-point producers is a good thing (it’s one more than the Caps have).  However, Henrik Sedin has missed eight games this season to bruised ribs and has only one point (a goal against the New York Islanders on March 10^th) over his last 14 games.  Kesler is out for this game, having been sent back to Vancouver for tests on an injured knee.  On top of that, Daniel Sedin has a strained hamstring and is on injured reserve.

On the back line the Canucks have enjoyed a measure of production.   Six defensemen have at least ten points, eight have recorded goals (the Caps’ numbers here are four and ten).  Jason Garrison leads the blueliners with seven goals, and folks know guys such as Kevin Bieksa and Dan Hamhuis.  But a word about a rookie – Ryan Stanton.  An undrafted native of St. Albert, Alberta, Stanton saw one game’s worth of action with the Chicago Blackhawks last season.  The Blackhawks placed Stanton on waivers in late September, and was claimed by the Canucks.  Fifty games later (he missed 15 games to an ankle injury and another for undisclosed reasons), he is 11^th among rookie defensemen in points and tied for ninth in assists, despite missing those 16 games overall.  He has hit a rut, though, going without a point in his last seven games.

Here is how the teams’ numbers compare overall:

1.  Vancouver does not come by its recent hard times by way of luck.  Since January 27^th they are 3-11-1 and have been outscored over that span by a margin of 48-24 (not including shootout goals) and have scored more than two goals in a game only twice, losing both contests, a 4-3 loss at Winnipeg on January 31^st and a 7-4 loss to the New York Islanders last Monday.

2.  Special teams have been just as poor.  In those same 14 games the Canucks are 7-for-45 on the power play (15.6 percent), while the penalty killers are 40-for-52 (76.9 percent). 

3.  One thing in which the Canucks do excel, they do not allow shorthanded goals.  Only Nashville (0) and Colorado (1) have allowed fewer shorthanded goals than the two allowed by Vancouver this season.

4.  Only the New York Islanders (6) have lost more games in regulation time when leading after two periods than has Vancouver (5).  Only Phoenix (11) has more losses when scoring first than the Canucks (10).

5.  In a case of unexpected divergence, the Canucks are sinking like a stone in the standings, but they remain a respectable possession team.  In five-on-five close score situations Vancouver is tenth in Corsi-for percentage (51.7) and ninth in Fenwick-for percentage (52.0).

  

1.  That four-game winning streak wrapped around the Olympic break probably seems far away to Caps fans these days. Since then they are 1-4-1, the only win being the product of a five-minute burst in the third period in which they scored three goals to overtake the Phoenix Coyotes, 3-2.  In their last five games they have held the lead for 5:06 out of 300 minutes played, all of that coming in the win over Phoenix.

2. Over this 1-4-1 skid the Caps are led in scoring by Mike Green (1-4-5).  Jason Chimera also has chipped in four assists.  At the other end of the spectrum, Alex Ovechkin does not have an even strength point (he had a power play goal and a power play assist in the 6-4 loss to the Flyers on March 5^th).  Only one of Nicklas Backstrom’s points in these six games, out of his 1-3-4 total, came at even strength (an even strength assist in the 6-4 loss to the Flyers).  Dmitry Orlov and Troy Brouwer lead the Caps in goals scored over this span with a pair apiece.

3.  The Caps have been out-shot 44 times in 67 games.  It is not surprising, then, that only two teams have suffered more losses when being out-shot (Buffalo, Edmonton) than the Caps, who have 20 such losses.

4.  Things happen when the Caps play four-on-four.  Only six teams have scored more times at four-on-four than the Caps (7), and only three teams have allowed more goals (8).

5.  The Caps recent struggles are reflected in their possession numbers.  In going 1-4-1 over their last six games they have well-aligned, albeit poor numbers.  In 5-on-5 close score situations they have a Corsi-for percentage of 43.7, a Fenwick-for percentage of 43.6, and a shots for-against ratio of 43.8.  Small wonder that they have been outscored by a 6-5 margin in those situations, and four of the goals they scored came in a 5-4 overtime loss to Philadelphia that started the skid.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Vancouver: Chris Higgins

Playing in 12 of 13 games spanning from January 18^th through February 28^th, Chris Higgins was 4-5-9, a respectable secondary scoring total.  Trouble is, the Canucks went 4-7-1 over those dozen games in which he played. Higgins is just 1-1-2 in March (both points coming in a 7-4 loss to the New York Islanders on Monday).  The Canucks are 2-4-0 in those six games.  This is what happens when primary scoring is absent.  Secondary scoring does not matter.  That is why the Canuck have only a total of 33 goals over those 18 games (1.83 per game) in which Higgins played, and the Canucks are 6-11-1 in those games.  Getting secondary scoring from players like Higgins can only help, but it is not sufficient to sustain a winning trend.

Washington: Jason Chimera

Speaking of secondary scorers, Jason Chimera is counted on to chip in some of that.  Unfortunately, he is 0-5-5 in his last 11 games, misfiring on 24 shots on goal in that span.  In fact, after potting goals in four consecutive games to end October and begin November, Chimera has a total of seven goals in his last 54 games, an 11-goal pace over a full season.  That said, he has been helpful.  As in assists.  He has already set a career high in assists for a season (22), surpassing the 21 he had with Columbus in 2006-2007, and his 34 points is within shouting distance of his career high in points (39) set with the Caps in 2011-2012.  If the Caps are going to make a run at the playoffs, it is likely to coincide with a record-setting year for Chimera.  He is 8-3-11 in 27 career games against the Canucks.

Keys:

1.  First Five.  When a team is down, keep them there.  The best way to do that is start fast and keep them from getting all fat and happy.  This seems to be a challenge for the Caps, who rank 20^th in first period goals scored this season.

2.  No Holes.  Vancouver has had trouble scoring goals.  It is a problem made worse with one less Sedin and no Ryan Kesler.  Don’t make it easier for them with giving up soft goals or letting them run free in your own zone. 

3.  Kill, kill, kill.  If you look at the rankings in the table above, these are remarkably similar teams in terms of performance, with one exception.  The Caps have an awful penalty kill at home, 26^th in the league.  That nonsense has to stop…now.

In the end…

In the 2014 portion of their respective seasons, the Caps (10-12-5) and Vancouver (7-17-3) are a combined 17-29-8.  That is a 64-point pace over a full season.  These teams are playing as if they are jockeying for the first overall pick in the NHL entry draft this summer.  But there are the Canucks, just four points out of a playoff spot, and there are the Caps, just three points out.  Both teams are hanging by a thread, the Canucks playing in a tougher conference, the Caps with a difficult schedule through the end of this month.  Someone has to win this game.  It might not be aesthetically pleasing to the hockey purist, but we have a feeling it will be entertaining.

Capitals 5 – Canucks 4

Washington Capitals: A NO Point Night -- Game 67: Penguins 2 - Capitals 0

"Fleury played great tonight.  Unfortunately, we couldn't score. We had opportunities to score, but he was unstoppable today."

Of how many goalies over how many years in how many games has that been said?  Alex Ovechkin was the latest Capital player/coach/executive to utter those or similar words in the aftermath of a Washington Capitals defeat at the hands of a fierce rival.  So it was last night as the Caps lost the back half of their home-and-home, back-to-back set against the Pittsburgh Penguins, 2-0.

Marc-Andre Fleury shut out the Caps, making 32 saves, 20 of them in the third period when the Caps were trying to erase a 1-0 deficit.  That deficit was realized in the first period when Jussi Jokinen scored his 17^th goal of the season, taking advantage of the Caps’ inability to move the puck out of their end.  First, it was Rob Scuderi keeping the puck in at the Capitals’ blue line, then Evgeni Malkin intercepting an attempted pass from Dmitry Orlov to Marcus Johansson to clear the zone.  After picking off Orlov’s pass attempt, Malkin circled to the right wing wall and slid the puck back to Matt Niskanen at the right point.  Niskanen one-timed the puck to the Caps net, where Jokinen was arriving just in time to redirect it past goalie Jaroslav Halak.

That goal would stand up until the third period when the Caps got caught up in a bit of bad luck.  Dmitry Orlov gloved down a loose puck at the Penguins’ blue line but was run over by Lee Stempniak as he tried to move it back along the boards.  With Orlov wearing Stempniak like a fur coat, Sidney Crosby stepped in and took the puck the other way.  The result was a 2-on-1 with Chris Kunitz, only Connor Carrick back for the Capitals.  Troy Brouwer was desperately trying to get back into the play to even the matchup, and perhaps sensing this, Crosby called his own number, snapping the puck past the right pad of Halak and into the far side of the net for the final margin.

Other stuff…

-- The shutout was the third suffered by the Caps in their last 11 games and the sixth time they have been blanked this season.  Washington was shutout only once in 48 games in 2012-2013.

-- The Caps were denied on both power play opportunities.  Doing so in the loss makes Washington 11-16-7 when they do not score a power play goal.

-- Alex Ovechkin was held without a shot on goal for the first 47:24 of the game and had only two shots for the contest.

-- Great hitters can go into slumps just like punch-and-judy hitters in baseball.  So it is with great goal scorers in hockey.  Ovechkin is 1-for-26 (3.8 percent) in shooting over his last seven games, dating back to the second period of the Caps’ 4-2 win over Boston on March 1^st.  It is probably no coincidence that the Caps are 1-4-1 in their last six games with this slump from their top goal scorer.

-- Neither of those shots by Ovechkin came on the power play, although the Caps did manage six shots on goal in 3:08 of power play time over two man advantages.  Troy Brouwer, Jason Chimera, and Marcus Johansson each had a pair of power play shots on goal.

-- For Chimera, the two power play shots on goal was part of his total of six shots on goal in all, leading the team for the evening and tying a season high set against Calgary in Game 11 of the season, a 5-2 win for the Caps in which he had a goal.

-- Chimera was the only one on his line who loaded a weapon last night.  Joel Ward and Eric Fehr each failed to record a shot on goal.  Combined they had only two shot attempts, both misses.

-- The win for the Penguins makes eight in a row over the Caps after Washington went on a 12-1-2 run from October 2008 until January 2012.

-- The Caps had six faceoff wins in the offensive zone in 17 tries (35.3 percent).  Nicklas Backstrom had half of them (3-for-6).  At least they were 50 percent in the defensive zone (7-for-14).

-- From the 13:48 mark of the first period until the 10:35 mark of the second, Pittsburgh had 24 Corsi events (shot attempts) to six for the Caps.  It was in that time span that Jokinen scored the game’s first goal (16:41 of the first period).  The Caps did better in the third, opening the frame with a 17-2 edge in shot attempts over the first 8:47.  But then Nicklas Backstrom was sent off for high-sticking at 9:10, blunting the Caps’ momentum.  The Penguins had seven of the next eight shot attempts, culminating in Crosby’s goal at 14:12. 

-- The loss dropped the Caps into sixth place in the Metropolitan Division, one point behind the New Jersey Devils, the Devils also holding a game in hand.  More ominously, the Caps are now only five points ahead of Carolina, and the Hurricanes hold two games in hand.

In the end…

What can you say?  The Caps play just well enough to lose these days.  In this most recent 1-4-1 run, look at the five losses.  An overtime loss to Philadelphia, then what for all intents and purposes was another one goal loss to the Flyers, who potted an empty netter late.  They were spanked with a 3-0 shutout in Boston, but then dropped a one-goal decision to Pittsburgh that they followed up by playing the Pens to a one-goal margin before a late goal by nemesis Sidney Crosby.  It is probably small consolation that the 19 one-goal losses the Caps have this year (nine in regulation, ten in extra time) is actually exceeded by the Chicago Blackhawks, who have 20.

Losing the State of Pennsylvania over the last nine days (0-3-1 to Philadelphia and Pittsburgh) means that this short home stand coming up with games against Vancouver and Toronto are now as “must win” as they get at this point in the season.  Anything less than four points this coming weekend, and the ensuing trip to the West Coast to face Anaheim, Los Angeles, and San Jose could be the nail in the coffin of the Caps’ playoff hopes.

Someone might want to ask St. Patrick if he has any spare four-leaf clovers.

Washington Capitals: A NO Point Night -- Game 66: Penguins 3 - Capitals 2

It was a workman like effort at Verizon Center last night, punctuated by opportunities seized and capitalized on.  Coupled with sturdy defense and effective goaltending, it was just the ticket to make their fans happy when the final horn sounded.

Well, Pittsburgh Penguin fans, anyway.

The Penguins rode a two-goal night from Chris Kunitz and a three-point night from Sidney Crosby, along with a 31-save effort from backup goaltender Jeff Zatkoff to a 3-2 win over the Washington Capitals at Verizon Center last night.

It started poorly for the Caps just 46 seconds into the contest when Zatkoff turned away a good scoring chance by Eric Fehr off a Jason Chimera feed in the first half minute.  The Penguins would then collect the puck along the right wing wall, Lee Stempniak beating Chimera to a loose puck.  Stempniak chipped the puck up to Sidney Crosby who found Kunitz on the opposite wing in front of the Capitals’ bench.  Kunitz blew by Mike Green as if it was a skating drill and broke in alone on goalie Jaroslav Halak.  A flip of a backhand later, and it was Kunitz recording his 30^th goal to make it 1-0, Penguins.

The Caps were then in catch-up mode the rest of the night.  Fehr did some of the catching up by tying the game less than three minutes after the Kunitz goal.  Fehr got it started when he picked up a loose puck near the Capitals’ blue line and sent it up to Joel Ward at the Penguin blue line.  When Ward was picked up by Matt Niskanen, Jason Chimera followed up and took the puck.  As this was going on, Fehr had circled all the way back on the weak side of the play and found an opening to the Penguin net.  Chimera found him ahead of Taylor Pyatt, and from the low edge of the right wing circle he beat Zatkoff before the goalie could slide across, tying the game at a goal apiece.

Less than a minute later, the Penguins had their lead back.  This was all Crosby.  First, he drew a slashing penalty on Nicklas Backstrom to put Pittsburgh on a power play.  Eleven seconds later he converted a pass from Evgeni Malkin to one-time a shot from the right wing circle past Halak’s glove, and it was 2-1.

That did it for the scoring in the first period, and it was quiet for much of the first half of the second period.  Then it was the Caps’ turn to convert a power play.  With Joe Vitale off for tripping Troy Brouwer, the Caps got a break.  Nicklas Backstrom took a pass from Brooks Laich at the far edge of the right wing circle and hit the start button on the power play.  Backstrom circled out to the faceoff dot, then threw the puck at the net looking for a Laich tip-in.  The puck hit defenseman Rob Scuderi, instead, and found its way past Zatkoff into the back of the net to tie the game for a second time.

It would be the last time.  In the 13^th minute of the period it was Kunitz again.  It was a simple case of speed.  At 7:25, Scuderi collected the puck at the left wing wall in his own end and fired it across to Matt Niskanen.   From the left wing circle Niskanen sent the puck up to Evgeni Malkin outside the Caps’ blue line.  Malkin touch-passed the puck to Crosby steaming down the middle.  Crosby left the puck for Malkin who one-timed a shot at Halak.  The shot was not handled cleanly, and Halak left a rebound to his right.  Kunitz beat Backstrom to the loose puck and stuffed it home to give the Pens the lead.  The entire sequence took five seconds to complete with every Penguin touching the puck on the play against a passive Capitals defense.  Game.

Other stuff…

-- Adam Oates is now 0-6-0 against the Penguins and has been outscored 24-11 in the process.  This is akin to the head coach at Michigan losing six straight times to Ohio State or the manager of the New York Yankees losing six straight times to the Boston Red Sox.  It does not sit well with fans.

-- Special teams have killed the Caps in this series in the Oates era, specifically the penalty killing.  The Pens got a power play goal last night, making it five out of six games over the last two seasons in which they recorded at least one power play goal.  The Caps are 11-for-19 (57.9 percent) killing penalties against the Penguins in their last six contests.

-- The 20 shots allowed to Pittsburgh was the third time this season the Caps allowed an opponent 20 or fewer shots.  They allowed the Minnesota Wild 11 shots in a 5-3 loss on January 4^th and 17 shots to Buffalo in a 2-1 Gimmick loss on December 29^th.  This loss makes the Caps 0-2-1 in these low-shot games.

-- The Caps Corsi-ed and Fenwicked the crap out of the Penguins last night – 58.6 percent Corsi-for percentage in 5-on-5 close score situations and 64.3 percent Fenwick-for percentage.  Ah, but here is the difference… Crosby: 1-2-3, Kunitz: 2-0-2, Malkin: 0-1-1 versus Ovechkin: 0-0-0, Backstrom: 1-0-1, Green: 0-0-0.  Their skill guys got results, the Caps’ skill guys did not.

-- The Caps even got shots from the guys you want shooting the puck.  Four shots from Ovechkin, Backstrom (his highest shot output in more than a month), Penner, and Fehr.  Three each from Green, Carlson, and Chimera. 

-- It was the one shot that did not count for Fehr that sunk the Caps in the end.  The shot that rang off the pipe that was going top corner over Zatkoff’s blocker that would have tied the game and perhaps earned the Caps a standings point they might desperately need down the road.  If “if only’s” were nickels, this team would win the lottery.

-- Little things… Crosby beat Eric Fehr in the faceoff circle, 5-1; he beat Nicklas Backstrom, 3-0; he beat Brooks Laich, 2-1; he beat Marcus Johansson, 4-2; all on his way to winning 14 of 19 draws.

-- Backstrom did win his share of faceoffs, though.  He was 6-for-8 in the offensive zone.  Overall the Caps were 12-for-16 on offensive zone draws (you wonder how they lost to this team, or at least how they could not score).

-- John Carlson: 5:06 in power play time.  Mike Green: 1:16 in power play time.  We think we can say the torch has been passed as far as the power play quarterback of choice is.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov… ten minutes and change, two shots on goal, one blocked shot, 1:10 on the second power play unit.  Consider his feet now wet.

In the end, the better team won, but they were not the better team.  The difference was in no small part passive defense.  We would consider the brain cramp by Mike Green on the Kunitz goal “passive” defense in that he looked as if he was locked up considering his options.  Certainly on the second Kunitz goal the Caps just kept backing off and backing off, allowing the Penguins an unimpeded romp with speed through the neutral zone.  If you look at the two even-strength goals the Penguins scored, the combined time it took them to put the puck in the net after they took possession of the puck was 11 seconds.  Even on the Crosby power play goal the defense on Crosby’s side of the ice did not try to close time and space when the puck was rotating to Crosby.

What it meant was that the Penguins could take advantage of opportunities with their skill guys.  It hardly mattered that the rest of their roster was dormant to the point of irrelevance.  That is why we are not all that impressed with the Penguins.  They are weak once one gets past the name players on their roster, hardly capable of mounting much offensive pressure and not making it up with shut down defense (the 33 shots for the Caps tied their high for a game since getting 35 against woeful Buffalo in an extra time game six weeks ago).

Ah, but that leaves us with the Caps, who did what they could, but they are in a worse place than the Penguins – a far worse place when their name players don’t have big games.  And that is why the Pens are continuing to march on to the post-season, and the Caps, well… are not.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Games 66/67: Capitals vs. Penguins, March 10/11

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

When the National Hockey League realigned and put its schedule together for the 2013-2014 season, March 10^th and 11^th might have been circled by hockey fans as a chance to see two bitter rivals fighting for bragging rights and playoff seeding in front of loud crowds and national television audiences.

Things have not quite worked out as planned.  The circle on the calendar has faded, as has the intensity of the rivalry between the Washington Capitals and the Pittsburgh Penguins.  No longer are these teams the signature rivalry in the Eastern Conference; no longer are Sidney Crosby and Alex Ovechkin fighting it out to demonstrate who is the best hockey player on the planet.

Caps fans might realize – grudgingly – that the Caps are not now on the short list of what most would consider Stanley Cup contenders, and none but his most rabid fans would consider Ovechkin the best hockey player on the planet.  But things are not all that rosy in Pittsburgh, either, given the lofty expectations for a team led by Crosby and a cast of stars.  Since winning the Stanley Cup in 2009, the Penguins have qualified for the playoffs in each season, but they have managed to win only three playoff series, one more than the Caps in that span.  And despite leading the Metropolitan Division by a comfortable margin this season, there are questions about this Penguins team.  Is their goaltending – specifically, Marc-Andre Fleury – up to the challenge of a playoff setting, one that he has not met over the past four years?  Is their defense sturdy enough, or healthy enough, to withstand the rigors of four playoff series over a two month period?  Is head coach Dan Bylsma nimble enough to react on the fly and adjust in the faster paced setting of the post-season?

Those questions might take on a bit more urgency, given the Penguins’ performance of late.  They are hardly in danger of falling out of the Metropolitan Division lead (they have a 14-point lead on the second-place New York Rangers), but they come into this home-and-home series against the Caps with a 2-2-2 record over their last six games. 

The usual suspects have been as productive as they need to be for the Penguins.  Evgeni Malkin is 2-5-7 over those six games, while Sidney Crosby is 1-6-7.  James Neal has chipped in three goals and three assists.  What the Penguins have also had, if not entirely expected, is significant contribution from rookie defenseman Olli Maatta, who leads the Penguins with four goals over their last six games and has a couple of assist for good measure.  Maatta is second among all NHL rookie defensemen in goals (9) and total points (27) to Boston’s Torey Krug (13 and 35), and his plus-10 trails only Tampa Bay’s Mark Barberio (plus-12) and Anaheim’s Hampus Lindholm (plus-24) in plus-minus.

What the Penguins are not getting in this six-game lull is secondary scoring.  Of the 17 goals they have in that span, Maatta (4), Neal (3), Malkin (2), and Crosby (1) have ten of them.  That leaves seven goals out of 14 other slots for skaters over those six games. 

Chris Kunitz has two of those goals.  He has already set a career high for goals in a season (29) and now has four straight seasons of more than 20 goals, six for his career.  Kunitz has slowed down of late, though.  After recording game-winning goals in consecutive games to end the month of January, he has only two goals over his last nine games.  It is not for lack of shooting.   Kunitz has those two goals on 29 shots, although he was held without a shot in his last game on Friday against Anaheim.  It was the first time he was held without a shot since December 3^rd against the New York Islanders.  Consider it regression of a sort.  Before this dry spell Kunitz had an 18.0 shooting percentage for the season.  His 2-for-29 spell dropped him to 16.2 percent for the season, tied for 18th in the league.  He is 6-7-13 in 18 career games against the Caps.

Another player is having a career year – defenseman Matt Niskanen.  When James Neal was obtained from the Dallas Stars in 2011 for defenseman Alex Goligoski, Niskanen was “the other guy” in the deal going to Pittsburgh.  In two-plus seasons after that trade Niskanen was 9-30-39, plus-11 in 133 games.  Through 63 games this season he is 9-28-37, plus-31, that last number leading all skaters in the NHL.  If anything, he has grown hotter with the passage of time.  In 28 games since December 18^th, Niskanen is 8-16-24, plus-13.  However, since the absence of Kris Letang following the stroke he suffered that has kept him out of the lineup since January 27^th, Niskanen is 2-5-7, plus-2.  He might be slowing down with the added responsibility.  Niskanen is 1-4-5, plus-7, in 10 career games against Washington.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  The Penguins’ power play leads the league (25.5 percent), and it has not missed a beat despite the sluggish 2-2-2 record over their last six games.  Eight of the Penguins’ 17 goals over those six games have been scored with the man advantage (8-for-27; 29.6 percent).  Maatta has three of those power play goals over that span to lead the club.

2.  Pittsburgh is known more for its offense, but in an important respect its defense should not be overlooked.  Only four teams have allowed fewer first period goals this season than the 40 allowed by the Penguins (Tampa Bay, New Jersey, San Jose, and Boston).

3.  The ability to keep the clamps on other teams early in games makes the Penguins formidable.  They are 29-3-1 when scoring first (second best record in the league) and 20-2-1 when taking a lead into the first intermission (fifth best record).

4.  Pittsburgh is the only team in the league to have received two match penalties this season, Deryk Engelland on December 14^th against Detroit and Robert Bortuzzo on January 11^th against Calgary.  They do trend to the lower end of the penalty scale, though.  Their 230 minor penalties is tied for the 11^th lowest number in the league this season.

5.  Despite their lofty perch in the standings, the Penguins are not an especially dominant possession team.  In 5-on-5 close score situations Pittsburgh ranks 16^th in Corsi-for percentage (49.7) and 14th in Fenwick-for percentage (50.8).

1.  The Caps are 2-3-1 in their last six games against Pittsburgh at Verizon Center.  Both wins were shutouts.  Tomas Vokoun pitched a 30-save shutout in a 1-0 win on January 11, 2012; and Michal Neuvisth blanked the Penguins on 22 shots in a 3-0 win on February 6, 2011.  Neither goaltender is still with the Caps.

2.  This is the Caps’ third back-to-back set of games this month.  It will be their 14^th set so far this season.  In 10 of the 13 back-to-backs to date the Caps either won both games (four times) or lost both, either in regulation or in extra time (six times).  They have an 11-8-7 record overall in back-to-back games.

3.  The Caps power play ranks second in the league this season, but it has struggled lately at Verizon Center.  Over their last five games at Verizon Center the Caps power play is 1-for-22 (4.6 percent).  It has been a different story on the road.  The Caps are 8-for-14 (57.1 percent) on the man advantage over their last five road games.

4.  The Caps have nine players on the “plus” side of the plus-minus ledger this season.  Five of them are in Hershey (Steve Oleksy, Nate Schmidt, Patrick Wey, Julien Brouillette, and Casey Wellman), two are no longer with the organization (Martin Erat and Alexander Urbom), and one currently injured (Mikhail Grabovski).  The leader in plus-minus – only plus player, in fact – likely to take the ice against Pittsburgh is Joel Ward (plus-2).  Of 18 players having dressed for the Caps this season who are a minus-1 or better, only Ward, Jason Chimera, Troy Brouwer, and Tom Wilson are on the roster and have played in at least 40 games.

5.  The Caps seem to be allergic to the puck these days.  In 10 of their last 12 games they have finished under 50 percent in Corsi-for percentage in 5-on-5 close score situations and have a combined Corsi-for percentage of 45.0 percent.  Their Fenwick-for percentage has been under 50 percent nine times in that span with an overall 45.0 percentage as well.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh:  Marc-Andre Fleury

All eyes are going to be on Marc-Andre Fleury when the post-season begins for the Penguins, given his playoff struggles over the last four seasons.  However, there appear to be nicks and dents in his armor in the present.  Leading up to the Olympic break Fleury was 3-1-1, 1.52, .945, with one shutout in his last five appearances.  Coming out of the break he has been less impenetrable, going 2-1-1, 3.12, .891 in four appearances.  So far this season, only Mike Smith (54) and Kari Lehtonen (53) have made more appearances than Fleury (51).  That kind of workload has not been unusual for Fleury, who had 62 or more appearances five times in a six year period ending in 2011-2012 (he had 33 in 48 games last season).  However, the Penguins are in a difficult place.  The expected backup goalie – Tomas Vokoun – has not played this season due to a blood clotting condition that had him on blood thinners and that kept from practicing, let alone playing.  Vokoun has been cleared to practice, but it remains uncertain when (or if) he will see game action.  The Penguins have a substantial division lead and might want to give Fleury more rest to keep him fresh for the post-season.  However, they want to keep him sharp, too.  Fleury is 15-7-2, 2.51, .913, with two shutouts in 25 career appearances against Washington.

Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Finally.  It took 1,354 days since Evgeny Kuznetsov was drafted 26^th overall by the Capitals in the first round of the 2010 NHL draft to get into the Caps' lineup, but Kuznetsov is expected to make his NHL debut against Pittsburgh in this series.  Fans might expect that he will slide seamlessly into a top-six forward role, and in fact that is what he is expected to fill…eventually.  It appears likely he will man the left side, a position from which the Caps have not had much punch this season (23 goals, if you consider Brooks Laich’s eight goals as being from the center position).  But it would be a stretch to expect an immediate impact from the youngster.  There is this, though.  On Hallowe’en 2003, Alexander Semin scored the game-winning goal in his first career game at Verizon Center, a 2-1 win over the Atlanta Thrashers to end what was an eight-game winless streak for the Caps.  On October 5, 2005, Alex Ovechkin scored two goals in his Verizon Center debut, a 3-2 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets in the 2005-2006 season opener.  Maybe it’s a Russian forward thing.  No pressure, kid.

Keys:

1.  Not So Special.  Pittsburgh has the best special teams in the league, first on the power play, first in penalty killing.  Unless the Caps enjoy a whopping advantage in power play opportunities (they do lead the league in that statistic; Pittsburgh is tied for 17th), the Caps are likely to have to earn points with better play at 5-on-5.

2.  Two-Minute Drill.   The Caps have had their issues with allowing goals within two minutes of scoring one themselves.  Pittsburgh has the firepower at the top of the roster to add to this misfortune and to score in bunches.  The Caps need to be especially disciplined in such situations.  They can’t let one of theirs become one of the Penguins’, and they certainly can’t let one for them become two…or three.

3.  Tend to Business.  The Caps have not goalies steal many games this season.  The Penguins are not particularly prolific in generating shots (tied for 14^th in shots per game), but they are efficient (tied for second in shooting percentage: 10.3 percent).  Whether Jaroslav Halak or Braden Holtby tends goal, they will have to raise their game.

In the end…

The Penguins are on cruise control in terms of a playoff spot, the only matter left to settle is whether they or Boston will be the one-seed in the Eastern Conference.  The Caps are, or should be, the more desperate team.  They have rarely played that way this season, and when they have, they have been inconsistent in displaying that trait.  Two wins would go a long way to making the tough March schedule successful.  Not entirely, mind you, since the Caps still have a west coast trip and home dates against Los Angeles and Boston to navigate.  But it would be nice to put these in the bank and let the Penguins know that there is still some life in this rivalry.

Capitals 4 – Penguins 2 (at Washington)

Capitals 3 – Penguins 2 (at Pittsburgh)