Washington Capitals: At the Half-Way Mark -- Three Cousins, Three Questions

The Washington Capitals passed the half-way point of their regular season schedule last weekend, and it seems as good a time as any to take stock of where they have been and where they might be going in their quest for a Stanley Cup.  As you might expect, the cousins have their own take on those questions.

Cheerless… “Yeah, one thing I want to know, where do we keep this ‘stock’ we’re taking?  I was out in the barn this morning, and it looked pretty empty to me.”

Fearless… “Except for all the moonshine bottles strewn about…”

Peerless… Can we get back to the subject?  The Caps finished the first half of the season with a 31-7-3 record.  They lead the league in wins, as well as regulation and overtime wins.  The only teams with more standings points earned at home have played more games than the Caps.  They have the best road record in the league.  They have the second best scoring offense and second-best scoring defense.  They have the second-best power play, and it’s worth noting that the best teams in each of those three categories are different teams.  They have the…

Cheerless… “You goin’ somewhere with this, cuz, or are you just grazin’?”

Peerless… OK, first queston.  Is this as good as it gets, or is this a new normal for this club?

Fearless… The Caps are on a pace to win 62 games, which would match the NHL record set by the 1995-1996 Detroit Red Wings.  Oddly enough, they are on a pace to finish with almost the same record as that club.  Detroit finished 62-13-7, the Caps are on pace to finish 62-14-6.  That said, the half-season version of the Caps looks a lot like the full-season version of the 1995-1996 Red Wings.  I did this handy little chart, anticipating your hypothetical…

As you can see, the Caps compare favorably with that Red Wings team in most areas. But…

Cheerless… “Always stickin’ your ‘but’ in.”

Fearless… As I was about to say, the Caps have done this over half a season.  To expect them to sustain that level of performance over the second half is a reach.  While they are a very good team, even a dominant one by contemporary standards, that Red Wings team was unreal.  They finished their regular season with 131 standings points, 27 ahead of the second-best team in the league, the Colorado Avalanche (104).  They had 13 more wins than the next biggest winner, the Pittsburgh Penguins (49).

Cheerless… Now get to the good part.

Fearless… Well, it wasn’t so good for the Red Wings.  They didn’t dominate in the postseason, going six games in the first round before beating the Winnipeg Jets, a team that finished with just 78 points in the regular season, and then took seven games to subdue the St. Louis Blues, who finished with just 80 points. They lost in the conference final in six games to the Avalanche.  Being good in the regular season matters; being dominant?  Perhaps not as much.  To get back to your original question, I don’t much care whether this is a spike in performance or, as you put it, a ‘new normal.’”

Peerless… OK, then what DO you care about?

Cheerless… “Well, unlike my esteemed cousin with all the fancy words here, I was taught that winnin’ was better than losin’.  But not losin’ a lot is better than winnin’ a lot.”

Peerless… Can anyone translate that?

Fearless… “I speak ‘Cheerless-ese’ passably well, so I’ll take a shot.  I think what he is saying is that the thing that impresses about the Caps so far, as much as the winning, is the ability to avoid losing streaks.  One instance of consecutive losses over a 42-game span is impressive. Compare that to the 1995-1996 Red Wings.  They didn’t have what you call “the gimmick” back in the day, but they did have overtime.  And in the first half of that season, the Wings had an instance of three consecutive games without a win (0-1, with two ties), consecutive losses in regulation, and a four game stretch in which they went 1-2, with a tie.  What I would be happy seeing in the second half is the Caps avoiding those kinds of slumps.  It would suggest an ability to shrug off bad performances or bad luck and getting back down to business, an attitude that could come in handy in the spring.

Peerless… OK, second question.  The Caps signed Mike Richards to a pro-rated one-year/$1 million contract.  Can he make the team better?

Fearless… No.  But let me explain that, starting with a question.  How do you get “better” from 32-7-3?  You don’t.  But, what you can do is justify the number with better underlying statistics.  The Caps have had possession issues for about two months now.  Their record has the faint whiff of opportunistic play – taking advantage of their depth of skill – more than rock-solid possession stats.  Richards comes from a hockey culture in Los Angeles that seemed to feed off of the fundamentals with respect to possession.  He will not be asked to do a lot with the Caps in terms of scoring line responsibility, but he can provide depth in the middle, and it is that attention to the basics that has been inconsistent with the Caps over the last few weeks.

Cheerless… OK, that is what he can provide.  But this is a guy who hasn’t played a game since April 9th last season, and it wasn’t as if he was all that productive when he did play.  He was 5-11-16, minus-10, in 53 games last season.  He had his problems, and we all hope those are behind him.  But he has more than 800 regular season and playoff games on his record, playing a hard-nosed style that suggests a player bigger than he is (5’11”/196).  He is 30 years old.  Is that an “old” 30?  He had 41 points in 82 games in 2003-2014 on a Cup winner.  He had 16 points in 53 games on a team last year that didn’t make the playoffs.  If he is anything like the former, the Caps might be able to sustain something close to the level of success they had in the first half.  If he’s more like the latter, the Caps still might have issues to deal with on their underlying game.

Peerless… Last one.  If the playoffs started today, the Caps’ first round opponent would be the New Jersey Devils.  Anything about that team scare you, and bonus question, what team would be the worst first round matchup in a playoff scenario?

Cheerless… “I see where you’re goin’ here, cuz.  You’re askin’ who can ‘Halak’ the Caps out of the playoffs?  You look at the teams bunched in the 7-10 range in the standings, the ones that might finish as an eight-seed and get the Caps in a first round, if the Caps win the conference.  Who among Boston, New Jersey, Tampa Bay, or Ottawa has a goalie who can steal a round?  I keep waiting for Tuukka Rask to improve in Boston, and he did have a ten-game stretch there where he didn’t lose in regulation, but he seems to be in a rut again.  New Jersey has Cory Schneider.  He hasn’t allowed more than three goals in consecutive games all season.  But that team just doesn’t score enough in front of him; he's lost ten games in which he allowed two or fewer goals.  Ottawa doesn’t give their goaltender enough help in front of him; they allow too many chances.  Tampa Bay…that’s the team that scares me.  Ben Bishop might not steal games the way Jaroslav Halak did against the Caps in 2010, but he plays really well in that system.  If they ever get their heads screwed on right at the other end, and if the Stamkos thing settles down in their favor, they could be a load.”

Fearless… “One problem the Caps had in 2010 was that things came a bit too easy for them.  They didn’t seem to have to fight through games all that often.  Sure, there was the occasional big comeback, but there was a 'Showtime' aspect to that team that melted away in 'Crunch Time.'  That is where this team is different.  The last game is the last game for them.  They put it behind them, win or lose, and take up their lunch pails and get to work on the next one.”

Cheerless… “What’s this, ‘Ode to the Working Man’ Tuesday?”

Fearless… “I was just reading some works by Studs Terkel.”

Cheerless… “You made that name up…”

Fearless… “No, he…”

Peerless… “Can we?”

Fearless… “Sure…as I was saying, this is a club that seems better insulated against the dreaded ‘hot goaltender’ that bedeviled this franchise in 30 years of playoff misfortune.  And besides, the Caps are the ones with the ‘hot goaltender.’  Maybe you should be asking if that’s the ‘new normal’ around here.”

Peerless… Good point, but that’s a question for another day.  What the Caps have done so far this season is extraordinary.  Unprecedented, in fact, in the context of the franchise’s history.  The aim now is not to put up gaudy win numbers for their own sake.  A Capital remarked the other day that it wasn’t about winning 50 or 60 games, but winning the last one.  More than the win total through the first half of the season, the Caps have been consistent in the way they go about things and in the outcomes that come from that effort.  It is the sign of a mature, focused team.  Maintaining that approach might not mean 60 wins in the regular season, but it very well could mean 16 wins in the postseason.

Two of a Kind Who Are One of a Kind

You get to a certain level of performance in any endeavor, and by definition there are few to compare one’s self to.  Yesterday Alex Ovechkin became the 43rd member of the “500-Goal Club” in NHL history, and I’ve struggled as a fan with making a comparison to any other athlete I’ve seen.

It finally occurred to me, the comparison literally under my nose, or more precisely on a cup I keep on my desk.  It is a cup commemorating the 1979 NCAA Men’s Basketball Champions from Michigan State University, which happens to be my alma mater.  I spent a lot of time sitting in Jenison Field House that season watching a young man who, like Ovechkin, was a highly sought after talent as a teenager and who, like Ovechkin, had the promise to take over games and remake the sport in his own image.

They also shared the same sort of infectious joy that they brought to the court and to the rink.  Not to mention the fact that they seemed just as happy making a pass and seeing a teammate score as they were when they did so themselves.

To me, one can draw a bright line from the Earvin “Magic” Johnson of that 1978-1979 Spartan basketball team to the Alex Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals hockey team who is still scoring goals and celebrating each one as if it was his first in what is now his 11th season in the NHL. 

Both players possess a flair for the dramatic and an appreciation for the elements of showmanship that bring fans into the play.  Every time they had the ball or the puck, you paid attention.  But each has a respect for their craft, able to remake and improve their games as necessary to sustain their level of excellence.  Johnson made himself a better shooter, Ovechkin has made himself a more responsible defender, to the point where he can be "a pain in the ass.”   And each remade their respective positions, Johnson with the size of a power forward who remade the position of point guard, and Ovechkin a power forward in the body of an NFL linebacker who could skate or stickhandle around as much as drive through opponents.

Johnson’s amateur and professional careers included more by way of team achievements, but part of that is the lack of depth around Ovechkin in previous years in a sport that not only prizes it, but requires it for championship success.  It is no longer fantasy to think that Ovechkin will join Johnson in having tasted a championship before his career comes to an end.

Nevertheless, for sheer star magnitude, uncommon skill, the durable nature of their excellence, the tenacity to persevere in making themselves better with time, and the joy with which they play the game and that they share with their fans, this fan who had the special privilege of seeing both play in person sees one in the other.  Of each it could be said that there were none before them quite like them, and none since.  

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 7 - Senators 1

Years from now, some young hockey player with a great shot and the thirst to score goals is going to be compared to the great goal scorers in NHL history.  Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Mike Bossy, Brett Hull.  One more player was added to that goal-scoring standard on Sunday night as Alex Ovechkin recorded his 500^th career goal as a Washington Capital in their 7-1 win over the Ottawa Senators in front of a home crowd that was witness to history.

The goal came at the 16:19 mark of the second period on, what else, a power play and from, where else, the left wing faceoff circle.  When Ovechkin took a feed from Jason Chimera and rifled it into the top of the net, number 500 was also a “first” in some respects.  Ovechkin became the first Capital to score 500 goals with the franchise, and he became the first Russian to reach that milestone.

The game itself was an expression of utter dominance by a team that had played a game the day before.  Justin Williams started the red light festival when he converted a superb no-look, through the legs feed from  Andre Burakovsky to beat goalie Andrew Hammond from right wing faceoff dot to make it 1-0 just 8:07 into the game. 

Less than three minutes later it was 2-0, courtesy of a T.J. Oshie power play goal, the end result of a sharp triangle passing play, Nicklas Backstrom on the right wing wall down to Evgeny Kuznetsov, and out to Oshie in the middle of the 1-3-1.

Ottawa got one back on a turnover by the Caps high in the offensive zone.  Trying to work a high cycle, Williams and Karl Alzner got tangled up with the puck squirting away from them.   Mike Hoffman jumped on the loose puck and headed down the left wing.  With Williams trying to close the distance and take an angle to defend the rush, Hoffman ripped a shot high over goalie Philipp Grubauer’s right shoulder and under the crossbar to make it 2-1 at the 3:32 mark.

Any suspense the Hoffman goal might have provided was snuffed out in short order.  Zach Sill scored his first goal as a Capital less than three minutes later.  Skating down the left side, Sill threw the puck in front as he was circling into the corner.  The puck popped into the air, and when Hammond failed to swat it away as it was falling to the ice, Sill circled out from behind the Senator net and batted it under the crossbar to make it 3-1.

Dmitry Orlov made it 4-1 less than two minutes later, finishing a game of keep-away conducted by the Caps in the Senators’ end.  Working the puck in deep and below the Ottawa goal line,  Nicklas Backstrom worked the puck back up the wall to Nate Schmidt at the right point.  Schmidt fired the puck across to Orlov at the opposite point, and with the Senator defense still on the other side of the rink, Orlov had time to step up and fire a laser that beat Hammond cleanly to make it 4-1 just under eight minutes into the period.

Then came the moment everyone had been anticipating.  Andre Burakovsky manned the spot usually occupied by Backstrom at the right wing wall.  Working the puck slowly down the wall, he fed it to Jason Chimera at the goal line extended to Hammond’s left.  Chimera threaded a pass through the slot that Erik Karlsson got his stick on, but not enough to keep the puck from Ovechkin’s reach.  Ovechkin settled the puck, then snapped it hard at the Ottawa net.  Hammond flung his glove up at the puck, but it was already past him and settling to the ice behind him, and the crowd erupted in what would be a three-minute break to celebrate the milestone.

The rest of the game was an obligatory running off of the clock, the competitive portion of the game having long passed and the historic moment having been witnessed.  However, the Caps being the team they are these days, they tended to business and made things more difficult for the Senators in the third period.  Tom Wilson scored an odd goal, taking a pass from Chimera and backhanding a shot from below the goal line off Hammond and into the net inside the near post. 

Ovechkin got a start on his second 500 goals mid-way through the period when he authored a replay of the overtime game-winner he scored in New York on Saturday, skating down the left wing, powering past Erik Karlsson, and cutting to the middle where he snapped the puck through Hammond’s pads to make it 7-1.  Goalie Philipp Grubauer took them home from there, and the Caps skated off with their most lopsided win of the season.

Other stuff…

-- Alex Ovechkin became the 43^rd player in NHL history to record 500 goals and fifth fastest to reach that milestone.  In what might be a reflection of just how special Ovechkin’s achievement is in a low-scoring era, only two of those 43 players with 500 or more goals are active – Jaromir Jagr (736 going into Sunday’s games) and Jarome Iginla (601).

-- Since Ovechkin came into the league in 2005, the closest pursuer in the goal scoring rankings is Iginla, who has 351 goals.  Since the 2001-2002 season, no player has more goals than Ovechkin.  Ovechkin was 16 years old when the 2001-2002 season started, and he was playing his first season with Moscow Dynamo.  It would be four more seasons before he entered the NHL.

-- The milestone goal was Ovechkin’s 185^th career power play goal.  Since he came into the league, no one is close to him in that category.  Thomas Vanek is second with 122.  His second goal of the game was his 312^th even strength goal of his career.  Since he came into the league, Iginla is second on the list (238).

-- Ovechkin was a plus-2 for the game.  If anyone is keeping score, that’s plus-21 for the season, third best in the league.

-- If there was one thing missing on the milestone goal, it was that Nicklas Backstrom did not provide an assist.  Never you mind, though.  Backstrom still had three assists in this game.  He is now tied for fifth in the league in helpers (28).  And, in what might be a Backstromesque sort of testimony to how effective he can be while not bringing attention to himself on the ice, he recorded those three assists in a game in which he did not record a shot attempt.

-- Ovechkin took over the league lead in goals with the pair he had tonight (26).  He became the fifth player to record 25 goals in each of his first 11 seasons in the league.  Mike Gartner, Wayne Gretzky, Jaromir Jagr, and Bryan Trottier are the others.

-- Jason Chimera recorded his second three-assist game of the season.  The other came in the Caps’ 7-3 win over the Colorado Avalanche on November 21^st.

-- The six-goal margin of victory was the Caps’ largest since they defeated the Philadelphia Flyers, 7-0, on November 1, 2013.

-- Nate Schmidt recorded an assist on the Orlov goal, giving him points in four straight games, a career-best points streak.

-- Philipp Grubauer had a solid game in goal, stopping 32 of 33 shots.  Over his last four games he is 3-1-0, 1.43, .954.

In the end…

When the bench emptied to celebrate Alex Ovechkin’s 500^th goal (and credit the league with granting permission to do so), one had the feeling that if the fans could climb over the glass to join in, they would have.  It was one of the few unalloyed moments of joy in the history of the franchise.   Whatever else Ovechkin achieves in his career, he has been a trailblazer for this franchise and for his Russian countrymen. 

But no accomplishment in a team sport belongs to the player alone.  Hockey might be the best manifestation of this concept, a sport where it takes 20 guys a night to be successful.  The Caps did score four goals before Ovechkin struck, and they got points from 12 players in addition to Ovechkin for the evening.  They were solid in their own end and exerted oppressive aggression in the offensive zone.  For a lot of his career, Ovechkin provided too many isolated highlights.  On this night, as has been the case so often in what has been a special season so far, his highlight was as bright as any other he has had, but he is able to share that light with a lot of other players who are making their own contributions.  It was a big night for the captain, and for the team as well.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 13

The number “13” was hardly an unlucky number for the Washington Capitals last week.  Week 13 was the team’s fifth unblemished week of the season, but it had its moments to test the mettle of the club and the blood pressure for the fans.

Record: 3-0-0

After closing Week 12 with the first consecutive losses of the season, the object of Week 13 was to keep from descending into a full-blown slump.  Making it a challenge was the fact that the Caps would try to turn things around on the road against three teams that had solid cases to make for earning a postseason berth.  While the Boston Bruins were a team struggling at home this year (a 9-10-2 home record when they faced the Caps), the two teams representing the boroughs of New York City – the Islanders and Rangers – had very good home records (13-6-2 and 15-5-1, respectively).

The next challenge to completing a successful week was roster-based.  The Caps started the week with three important cogs on the shelf.  Brooks Orpik and John Carlson were still out for the defense, and Jay Beagle was still out to thin the forward ranks.  By the end of the week, the forward ranks were thinned further, thank to actions on the ice and the Department of Player Safety.  Zach Sill and Marcus Johansson were given two-game vacations without pay, Sill sitting for his boarding Boston’s Adam McQuaid in the Caps’ 3-2 win on Tuesday, and Johansson sitting for his illegal check to the head of the Islanders’ Thomas Hickey in the Caps’ 4-1 win on Thursday.

The absences gave others a chance to step up, either into more responsible roles or into the lineup.  The defensive pairs of Matt Niskanen and Karl Alzner, and Dmitry Orlov and Nate Schmidt continued to play at a rung higher than their accustomed positions.  By week’s end Taylor Chorney and Aaron Ness were the third defensive pairing.  At forward, Andre Burakovsky, who has had an up-and-down year, was skating on the second line with Evgeny Kuznetsov and Justin Williams.  Michael Latta, who would not be assured a sweater on a fully healthy squad, was centering the third line with Tom Wilson and Jason Chimera.  The fourth line had Brooks Laich chaperoning Stanislav Galiev and Paul Carey, neither of whom started the year with the big club and who between them had nine games of action this season before Saturday, all of them by Galiev.

Offense:  3.67/game (season: 3.17 /game; rank: 2nd)

A team averaging more than three goals per game this season would be considered a high-powered offense.  Only three teams, including the Caps, could say that at the end of the week.  A team that scores three or more goals in a week’s worth of games has had a pretty good week.  The Caps did just that in their three wins.  And, while they did not do it against elite scoring defenses, they did do it against teams ranked in the middle of the pack in scoring defense (Bruins: 17^th at the end of the week; Islanders: 12^th; Rangers: 15^th) and did it on their rinks.

Eight players shared in the 11 goals for the week, Alex Ovechkin leading the club with three.  Two of Ovechkin’s goals were game winners, including the overtime goal that put away the New York Rangers and left him with 499 career goals to end the week. Nicklas Backstrom was the other Cap with a multi-goal week (2), including the game-tying goal with 5.7 seconds left in the win over the Rangers. 

There were 12 players recording points for the week.  Backstrom added a pair of assist to his two goals to tie for the team lead in points in Week 13 (2-2-4).  Nate Schmidt had a four-point week as well (1-3-4), reaching the double-digit points mark for the season (2-8-10), the fifth Caps defenseman to get there.

Defense: 2.00/game (season: 2.15 /game; rank: 2nd)

After a span in which the Caps were allowing 30 or more shots with disturbing regularity, they have been better in that regard of late.  In week 13 they held the Bruins (27) and the Rangers under that threshold (26).  That made four games in six in which the Caps held opponents under 30 shots.

No single Capital was victimized disproportionately in Week 13 in terms of on-ice goals against.  There were 14 skaters on ice for goals against.  Brooks Laich was on ice for three of them (two against the Rangers when the Caps cobbled together a make shift fourth line), as was Karl Alzner.  There were 10 other skaters on ice for two goals against.

Possession was a mixed bag in Week 13.  Overall, the Caps were at 49.8 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 for the week (a minus-1 on 267 total shot attempts, for and against).  It was slightly better at a more discrete level.  The Caps were a 51.1 percent in close score situations (plus-3 in 133 attempts, for and against).  The Fenwick numbers were better still – 51.0 at 5-on-5 overall, 53.0 in close score situations (numbers from war-on-ice.com)

Goaltending: 2.00 /.932 / 1 shutout (season: 2.02 / .927 / 2 shutouts)

It was Braden Holtby’s week in goal for the Caps, and it says something about his season to date that it was “average.”  He started the week with a 1.92 goals against average for the season, and he ended it at 1.93.  He started the week with a .932 save percentage, and that is how he ended it.  He was very consistent across the periods for eight regulation periods in Week 13, perfect in the first period (25-for-25), a ,935 save percentage in the second period, and a .958 save percentage in the third period of the first two games of the week.  Then came the third period against the Rangers.  Holtby allowed three goals on seven shots to allow the Rangers to take a 3-2 lead in a game the Caps led, 2-0, going into the last 20 minutes.  He stopped the leaking long enough to allow the Caps to tie the game late, then made a big save on Rick Nash from the low slot just before the game-winning goal in overtime.

In a goaltending footnote, it goes down as a blocked shot, but Nate Schmidt’s “save” on an attempt by Derek Stepan following up the Nash shot in overtime of the Ranger game might have been the save of the week:

Power Play: 2-for-8 / 25.0 percent (season: 25.6 percent; rank: 2nd)

Week 13 was the fourth consecutive week of 25.0 percent on the power play or better.  The Caps are 11-for-35 over that span (31.4 percent), covering 13 games.  It might not have been quite as good a week as a 25 percent week suggests.  Then again, there is a lot to be said for being alert.  The second power play goal of the week was an outright gift served up by the Rangers’ Dan Girardi to Alex Ovechkin:

Other than that, the Caps were 1-for-7 with the lone goal coming on a total of 11 shots in 12 minutes of power play ice time.

Opportunities continue to be an issue for the Caps.  They did not have more than three power plays in any game this week, and they have had more than three only once in their last ten games.  The Caps rank in the lower third in the league in total power play opportunities this season (21^st) with 125.

Penalty Killing: 8-for-9 / 88.9 percent (season: 85.0 percent; rank: 5th)

The Caps had another good week on the penalty kill in Week 13.  Finishing the week with almost 90 percent efficiency and holding teams to nine opportunities qualifies.  The Caps have not finished under 80 percent for a week since Week 7.  In the six weeks since, they are 51-for-59 (86.4 percent).  In this most recent week.

For Week 13 the Caps allowed one goal to the Bruins to open the week, part of a week in which they allowed that single goal on 16 shots in 15:27 of shorthanded ice time.  It was, if not a sparkling week on the penalty kill, a solid one.

Even Strength 5-on-5 Goals for/Goals Against: 6-5 / plus-1 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.41; rank: 1st)

The Caps continued their overall consistency at 5-on-5 in Week 13.  It would have been better had the Caps not been outscored at fives by a 3-1 margin in the overtime win over the Rangers to end the week (the last “even strength” goal by the Caps was scored with the Caps’ net empty and a sixth attacker on the ice).

The Rangers game was, in fact, just the second time in the Caps’ last ten games in which they were outscored at 5-on-5, the Caps compiling a 24-15 advantage (1.60:1 goals-for/goals-against ratio).  The Caps have not been outscored at fives in consecutive games since Games 26-27 in early December (both minus-1 against Florida and Detroit).

Faceoffs: 83-for-162 / 51.2 percent (season: 49.6% / rank: 21st)

The Caps improved somewhat in the faceoff circle in Week 13, finishing over 50 percent overall for the sixth week this season and the first one since Week 7.  It was even a bit better than the overall numbers suggest, the Caps finishing to the good side of 50 percent in the offensive (51.1 percent) and defensive (53.6 percent) zones. 

It was a gratifying week to finish over 50 percent with their best faceoff man – Jay Beagle – out with an injury.  Of the five Caps to take more than ten draws for the week, Nicklas Backstrom (57.4), Marcus Johansson (64.3), and T.J. Oshie (53.8) won more than half of the draws they took.  Backstrom was the only Capital to finish over 50 percent in all three zones (offensive: 66.7; defensive: 54.5; neutral: 55.6).

Goals by Period:

There was consistency on offense in terms of outcomes by period, the Caps scoring four first period goals and three in the second and third periods of games (they added an overtime goal to make 11 total goals for the week).  It was on defense where there appeared cracks, and that was almost entirely a function of the week-ending game against the Rangers.  The Caps did not allow a first period goal in Week 13 and allowed only two in the second period of games.  However, the Caps did allow four third period goals this week, three of them coming in a span of just over seven minutes of their 4-3 overtime win over the Rangers to close the week.

In the end…

Beating three of the presumed competitors for a postseason spot on their respective rinks qualifies as a very good week.  One might have wished for a little tighter third period than the Caps exhibited against the Rangers, but grabbing back the momentum in a game in which you give it away is among the more difficult in-game things to achieve in team sports.  

It is worth noting that the third Ranger goal to give the Blueshirts the lead with 6:49 left in regulation in the last game of the week was not met by resignation, but with almost a sense of anger by the Caps.  From that goal forward, the Caps had 14 shot attempts to three for the Rangers over the last 8:14 of regulation and overtime.  They had eight shots on goal (two goals) to one for the Rangers, that coming in overtime just before the game-winner.  If nothing else, that comeback, coupled with the fact that it came with a lot of patchwork in the lineup, signaled that this is a team that is disinclined to give up on games or accept adversity as a condition.  It might be the difference between this edition of the Caps and all that have come before.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (3-0-3, plus-3, 2 GWG, 15 SOG, 27 shot attempts, 499^th career goal)
• Second Star: Nate Schmidt (1-3-4, plus-4, 20:19 average ice time, game-saving block in overtime against Rangers)
• Third Star: Braden Holtby (3-0-0, 2.00, .932, 19-0-2 over last 22 appearances)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 42: Senators at Capitals, January 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Fresh off a heart-stopping 4-3 overtime win over the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on Saturday, the Washington Capitals head right back to the ice on Sunday evening when they return home to host the Ottawa Senators at Verizon Center.

The Caps bring a three-game winning streak into this contest, their fourth streak of three wins or more in compiling a 31-7-3 record at the half-way point of the season.  This game will be the second half of the Caps’ eighth back-to-back set of games this season.  They will be looking for their fifth sweep in back-to-backs when Ottawa comes to town.  The Senators will be playing the back half of their own back-to-back set of games, having defeated the Boston Bruins, 2-1, in overtime on Saturday night. 

These two teams met back on December 16^th at Verizon Center, a game that the Caps won behind goals by Michael Latta and John Carlson, and a 26-save effort from goalie Braden Holtby.  Since then, the Senators are a struggling bunch, going 4-5-1, including a 1-3-1 record on the road.  Their offense has been anemic in their ten-game run, recording just 20 goals while allowing 28.  Special teams have not helped the Senator cause, either.  Their power play is 4-for-31 over their last ten games (12.9 percent), while their penalty kill is just 25-for-34 (73.5 percent).

Eleven different Senators shared the 20 goals scored over their last ten games, led by right wing Mark Stone with four (4-1-5).  Stone, a former sixth-round draft pick now in his third NHL season is fourth on the club with 11 goals, slightly off the pace he set last season when he potted 26 goals in 80 games on his way to a season that was good enough for him to be named a finalist in the Calder Trophy voting for the league’s top rookie.  Stone is 1-1-2, plus-2, in four career games against Washington.

Bobby Ryan and Mika Zibanejad each have three goals since Ottawa last faced the Caps.  Ryan recorded his first game-winning goal of the year, one of two he had, in the Senators’ 3-2 overtime win over the St. Louis Blues last Monday.  The two-goal game interrupted what had been a goal-scoring drought for Ryan, who had only two goals over his previous 13 games.  He is still tied for second on the club in goals scored (13), and he is still on a pace to surpass last year’s 18-goal output in 78 games.  What seems to be lacking in his game is a shooters’ mentality.  He is an efficient 13.4 percent on 97 shots this season, but those 97 shots are only 2.37 per game, well off the 2.83 shots per game he recorded last season.  Ryan is 6-4-10, minus-5, in 12 career games against the Caps.

Zibanejad has been a reliable high-teens goal scorer for the Senators over the last two seasons, and he is on a similar pace this season (16).  He went three consecutive games without recording a shot on goal immediately after the December 16^th contest against the Caps, but he has 19 shots on goal in seven games since, five of them in the Senators’ last contest, a 2-1 win over the Boston Bruins on Saturday.  Of his eight goals this season, three of them are game-winners, tied for the team lead.  Zibanejad is 3-2-5, minus-1, in 11 career games against Washington.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Watch Kyle Turris.  He is tied with Ryan for second in goals scored for the Senators (13), and the team is 11-1-0 in games in which he scores a goal.

2.  Ottawa has, by far, the worst shot differential per game in the league.  At minus-5.1 shots per game they are 1.2 shots per game worse than the Arizona Coyotes.   That is a product of shots allowed.  Their 33.4 shots per game allowed is worst in the league.

3.  Scoring first does not come easily to the Senators, which is a good thing for opponents, because they are tough to beat when they do.  Only 14 times in 41 games have they scored the first goal, but their winning percentage (.857/12-2-0) is third best in the league, behind only San Jose (.882/15-2-0) and the Caps (.958/23-1-0).

4.  Only two teams have more power play goals on the road than Ottawa (15). Chicago and San Jose each have 16 power play goals on the road.  Their road power play operates at 24.6 percent efficiency, third in the league behind St. Louis (26.9) and Chicago (27.1).

5.  There is no other way to say it, Ottawa is a poor possession team.  They rank 27th in overall Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (47.1 percent), 29^th in score-adjusted Corsi (46.3), and 27^th in close score situations (46.4).  Their Corsi-against/60 (shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes) is second highest in the league (58.7).  Only Colorado has allowed more (60.8; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Washington has power play goals in four of their last six games, going 5-for-17 over that span (29.4 percent).  The penalty killers are 16-for-19 over those same six games (84.2 percent) and are 24-for-27 over their last nine contests (88.9 percent).

2.  Only two teams have had fewer power play opportunities at home this season than the Caps (59).  Philadelphia has had 58 opportunities; Winnipeg has 55 opportunities.  At the same time, only three teams have faced fewer shorthanded situations at home than the Caps (50).  San Jose (49), Buffalo (46), and Minnesota (37) have had fewer.

3.  The Capitals are the only team in the league with a goal differential of plus-10 or greater in each of the first (plus-10), second (plus-16), and third periods (plus-15) of games this season.

4.  The overtime win over the Rangers improved the Caps’ record in one-goal games to 13-2-3.  Their .722 winning percentage is best in the league in such decisions.

5.  The Caps return home to take up what has been an odd recent history in their possession numbers at Verizon Center.  In their last nine games their Corsi-for at 5-on-5 is a disappointing 49.6 percent, but their numbers in score-adjusted (50.6) and close score (51.1 percent) are better (numbers from war-on-ice.com).  With six of their next eight games at home, it is an opportunity for improvement.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Erik Karlsson

Erik Karlsson is pulling away in the scoring race among the league’s defensemen.  With 45 points, he is seven ahead of Dallas’ John Klingberg.  He is one hot player at the moment with a hand in half of the Senators’ 20 goals since they played the Caps last month (2-8-10).  He is now on a more than point-per-game pace, threatening to become the first scoring leader among defensemen to finish a full 82-game season at more than a point-per-game pace since Mike Green recorded 76 points in 75 games for the Caps in 2009-2010.  Karlsson can score in bunches.  He has point streaks of three games or better four times this season, including a nine-game streak and a seven game streak.  He comes into this game on a three-game streak.  Karlsson is 2-15-17, even, in 19 career games against Washington.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

When Alex Ovechkin scored the overtime game-winning goal against the New York Rangers on Saturday afternoon, it was his 499^th career goal, but it also lifted him into what is an accustomed place in the NHL – the league lead in goals.  Technically, he was tied with three other players at 24 goals apiece (Dallas’ Jamie Benn subsequently broke the tie with a goal on Saturday night), but Ovechkin has been on a sustained run of goal-scoring as of late.  He has ten goals in his last 11 games, and he is now on a pace to finish the season with 49 goals.  No other player is on such a pace at the moment. 

In the end…

It’s getting harder and harder to find adjectives to describe the sort of season the Capitals are having.  They just keep finding different ways to win.  If they are not putting teams away early, they are fighting to the horn to tie a game and win in overtime.  When they sustain injuries to or absences from important players, others raise their game.  It means that they have a three-point lead on the rest of the league in the standings with three games in hand over the second-best team in the league standings, the Dallas Stars.  However, while it is tempting to look ahead, it is important – and from a fan’s point quite worth it – to just focus on the moment.  Caps fans have never seen a team this consistently good.  Enjoy the moment.

Capitals 4 – Senators 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 41: Capitals at Rangers, January 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals conclude their five-game road trip on Saturday afternoon with a match-up against the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden.  The Caps will be returning to the arena in which they authored one of their most interesting comebacks this season, spotting the Rangers a 3-1 lead before roaring back with six unanswered goals in a 7-3 win on December 20^th.

Since that comeback win, the Caps have rolled along, posting a record of 6-1-1 and extending their Metropolitan Division lead to 14 points over the New York Islanders and 15 points over the Rangers.  Since losing to the Caps, the Rangers have alternated wins and losses, going 3-2-0.  Except for a 3-2 overtime win over the Anaheim Ducks in that stretch, there has been little doubt in the decisions, the other four games settled by multi-goal margins.

The Rangers outscored opponents by a 17-12 margin over their last five games.  The Blueshirts have done well at full and even strength over those games, outscoring opponents, 13-9.  They also have a shorthanded goal and a pair of empty netters on their ledger.  The rest of special teams have been a problem, though.  New York is 1-for-17 on the power play in those games (5.9 percent), while they are 13-for-18 killing penalties (72.2 percent).

The Rangers are led in scoring over their last five games by Rick Nash (2-3-5).  It has not been the best of seasons for the 13-year veteran.  His 12 goals in 38 games to date is his worst goals-per-game output (0.32) since he scored 17 goals in 74 games in his rookie season in 2002-2003.  Those two goals over his last five games leaves him with four in his last 17 contests, and his goal against the Nashville Predators in a 5-3 loss on December 28^th broke a 13-game streak without an even strength goal.  Ice time has become a bit of an issue for Nash, who is fourth among the team’s forwards in average ice time (13:26 per game), even though he leads the team in overall shifts taken per game (25.6).  Nash is 12-9-21, plus-2, in 20 career games against the Capitals.

Derick Brassard leads the Rangers in goals scored in their 3-2-0 run with three.  Two of them came when he figured in all of the scoring (2-1-3) in a 3-2 overtime win over Anaheim on December 22^nd.  It was Brassard’s second three-point game of the season and his third two-goal game of the season.  The odd part about his having two three-point games is that his other one – on October 20^th in a 3-1 win over Toronto – also had him figuring in all the Ranger scoring with three assists, and it is the only game this season in which he recorded more than one assist.  Brassard leads the team in power play scoring (3-7-10) and is tied for the club lead in game-winning goals (3).  He is 3-7-10, plus-5, in 16 career games against Washington.

Henrik Lundqvist will not be going to his fourth all-star game this season.  It is not much of a surprise when comparing this season to his body of work as an NHL goaltender.  His 2.49 goals against average is, at the moment, a career worst (he had a 2.43 GAA in 70 games in 2008-2009).  His .920 save percentage is his worst since 2006-2007 (.917 in 70 games).  He has struggled quite a bit over the last four weeks, posting a 4-5-0 record in ten appearances (one no-decision) with a 3.77 goals against average and a .870 save percentage.  He was pulled twice in those ten games, including the December 20^th loss to the Caps when he allowed five goals on 19 shots in 40 minutes.  Lundqvist is 19-9-3, 2.61, .908, with four shutouts in 31 career appearances against the Caps.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  The Rangers have had two separate seasons so far.  In their first 21 games they were 16-3-2, averaging 3.10 goals per game on offense and allowing just 1.76 goals per game.  Their power play was a respectable 19.6 percent, and their penalty kill was a very good 86.1 percent.  Since then, however, the Rangers are 6-11-2, their scoring offense down to 2.74 goals per game over those 19 contests and their defense allowing a whopping 3.47 goals per game.  Their power play remained respectable at 19.0 percent, but their penalty killing collapsed, allowing 16 power play goals in 61 chances (73.8 percent).

2.  The Rangers have been quite a front-running bunch this season, not unlike the Capitals.  They have the third-best record in the league when scoring the game’s first goal (17-1-2/.850), are tied for the fourth highest win total when taking a lead into the first intermission (14), and they are one of three teams with a perfect record when leading after 40 minutes (15-0-0).  On the other hand, they have won just five times in 20 games in which the opponent scored first, and they have yet to win a game when trailing after two period (0-11-1), one of only three teams seeking their first such win.

3.  The Rangers have allowed at least one goal in the first period in each of their last eight games.

4.  An ominous statistic for the Rangers is their record in games by goal margin.  They do well enough in blowouts – no team has more wins in games decided by three or more goals (12, tied with the Dallas Stars), but they rank just 19^th in winning percentage in one-goal games (7-4-4/.467).

5.  About that “two season” notion for the Rangers so far.  One thing has been an absolute constant – close score Corsi values.  When they went 16-3-2 to open the season, their close score Corsi was 48.9 percent.  In the 19 games since and a 6-11-2 record, it is 48.9 percent (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Caps got to 30 wins in 40 games.  Last season they did not reach that mark until Game 57, and it is by far the quickest to 30 wins in team history.  In 2008-2009 the Caps reached the 30-win mark in their 47^th game (30-14-3).

2.  Thirty wins is a lot, but the Caps are a hard loss as well.  Of their most recent seven losses this season, five of them were by one goal, three of those in extra time.

3.  PDO (team shooting plus save percentages) is a frowned upon statistic because it is subject to corrections over large numbers of events.  Nevertheless, there is an interesting PDO aspect about the Caps.  Their PDO overall at 5-on-5 in close score situations (102.9) ranks fifth in the league.  However, it is not a product of either shooting or save percentage lending undue weight to that ranking.  The Caps rank fifth in shooting percentage (8.4) and fifth in save percentage (94.4). 

4.  Only the Dallas Stars have more multi-goal wins this season (20) than the Caps (18).

5.  Odd thing about that 7-3 win over the Rangers back on December 20^th, and perhaps something the Caps will want to avoid.  They were a minus-13 in shot attempts in close score situations in that game, out-attempted by an almost 2-to-1 margin (29-16/Corsi-for of 37.7 percent).  It was their fifth-worst plus-minus and third-worst Corsi-for in those situations in 40 games this season (numbers from war-on-ice.com). 

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Jayson Megna

Jayson Megna is one of those feel-good stories about a kid who comes a long way to get his chance in the NHL.  Back in 2012 he had just finished his first year as a member of the University of Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks hockey team, and he was invited to attend the Pittsburgh Penguins’ development camp.  He impressed the club enough to get a two-way contract and was assigned to the AHL farm team at Wilkes-Barre/Scranton.  In 2013-2014 he dressed for 36 games with the big club, going 5-4-9, plus-1, two of his goals being game-winners.  He could not stick with the Pens, though, playing only 12 games with the big club last season (0-1-1, minus-2).  Last July he signed a one-year/two-way contract with the Rangers and started the season with the Hartford Wolf Pack.  After 34 games in which he led the league in shots on goal, he was called up to the Rangers, and in his Ranger debut last Tuesday against the Dallas Stars he had a goal and an assist in just under 12 minutes of ice time.  This will be his second career game against the Caps; he did not record a point in his previous contest.

Washington: Karl Alzner

Karl Alzner’s player profile might read as follows: “reliable, durable defensive defenseman who wins battles by playing angles and using position rather than by relying on physical presence.”  What it won’t say, but these days could, is that he makes contributions in the offensive end.  The fact is, Alzner is quietly assembling a decent year in the offensive end of the ice.  He is 2-10-12 in 40 games, and while this will hardly challenge Erik Karlsson or John Klingberg for scoring supremacy among NHL defensemen these days, it is a pace that would have him set a personal record for points in a season (25).  It is worth noting that in each of the last four full seasons, Alzner has improved his personal best in points each season: 12 in 2010-2011, 17 in 2011-2012, 18 in 2013-2014 (the 2012-2013 season being only 48 games), and 21 last season.  Alzner comes into this game with points in three of his last four games and is 0-4-4, minus-12, in 24 career games against the Rangers.

In the end…

The Caps are half-way through the regular season race after this game, and they approach the mark with a few dings and dents on the red car leading the NHL race.  John Carlson and Brooks Orpik are out on defense.  Jay Beagle is missing among the forwards.  Zach Sill is sitting another game for his hit on Adam McQuaid in the Caps’ 3-2 win over Boston on Tuesday.  Marcus Johansson, who might now be considered for a stunt double role in the next remake of “Slap Shot,” is out for two games after being suspended by the Department of Player Safety for his hit on Thomas Hickey in the Caps’ 4-1 win over the New York Islanders on Thursday. 

This is, as they say, an opportunity for others to step up and make a contribution.  It might be Paul Carey, formerly of the Colorado Avalanche who was called up to the Caps from Hershey on Friday, who has his moment.  While all eyes might be on Alex Ovechkin in his chase for his 500^th career goal, this might turn out to be the Jayson Megna-Paul Carey show.

Washington 3 – New York 2

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 4 - Islanders 1

The Washington Capitals just roll on.  They won their second straight game and 11^th in 13 contests on Thursday night, defeating the New York Islanders, 4-1, at Barclays Center in Brooklyn.  It was a matter of relentless pressure in all three zones, denying the home team flurries of activity on offense and applying a consistent offensive pressure of their own to open up a 14-point lead on the second-place Islanders in the Metropolitan Division.

Jason Chimera got the Caps off and running early in the game in an example of there being no bad shots to take when you have the chance.  Marcus Johansson followed up a faceoff he took against Mikhail Grabovski by collecting the loose puck along the left wing wall and circling through the corner to the right of goalie Jaroslav Halak.  Johansson fed the puck ahead to Chimera on the other side of the Islander net, and Chimera circled out with defenseman Adam Pelech trailing him.  Chimera backed out and from a severe angle to Halak’s left flicked a shot that snuck between Halak and the near post to give the Caps a 1-0 lead just 5:45 into the contest.

Precisely ten minutes later, the Caps lit the lamp again.  Karl Alzner, of all people, led a rush by carrying the puck down the right wing.  Gaining the offensive blue line, Alzner slid the puck back to Alex Ovechkin at the top of the right wing faceoff circle.  Ovechkin wasted no time or motion in wristing a shot that squeaked through Halak and into the net to give the Caps a 2-0 lead at the 15:45 mark.

The Caps took that 2-0 lead into the second period, but it would be the Islanders scoring first in the middle frame, Brock Nelson taking a feed from Ryan Strome in the high slot and firing a wrist shot that beat goalie Braden Holtby to make it 2-1 just 1:59 into the period.

The Caps and Holtby stymied the Islanders thereafter, and they restored their two goal lead late in the period just after an Islander power play expired.  With Tom Wilson exiting the penalty box, Nicklas Backstrom took advantage of a lackadaisical Marek Zidlicky chasing down a puck below his own goal line.  Backstrom stripped Zidlicky of the puck, circled out from behind the Islander net and fed the puck out to Nate Schmidt closing in from the blue line.  Schmidt leaned into a shot and rocketed it past Halak to make it 3-1 with just 4:06 left in the second period.

From there the Caps applied the clamps to the Islanders, shutting them out the rest of the way, Nicklas Backstrom scoring an empty net goal with 2:42 left to close out the scoring in the 4-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- With the win the Caps added to their league leading win total on the road this season.  Their 15-4-2 record away from Verizon Center is two wins better than the Los Angeles Kings (13-6-2) and the San jose Sharks (13-6-2).  The closest Eastern Conference pursuer is the Florida Panthers (11-6-2).

-- Jason Chimera recorded his 12^th goal of the season.  That is news, but it isn’t the takeaway from his game.  He finished the contest with seven shots on goal and 93 shots on goal for the season in his 40^th game.  He had 96 shots on goal in 77 games last season. 

-- The lede for the game story might be Alex Ovechkin’s 497^th goal, but it was Nicklas Backstrom who had a goal and an assist, making it four straight games with a point.  He is one of 11 players in the league among 466 appearing in 30 or more games this season to average at least one point per contest (37 in 37 games).

-- The Caps had 38 shots on goal.  That total was surpassed in only two other games this season, when they had 40 against the Detroit Red Wings in a 3-2 Gimmick win on December 8^th and 43 in a 5-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres on December 30^th.

-- Marcus Johansson recorded an assist to extend his points streak to three games.  He is 5-6-11 in his last ten contests.  Karl Alzner had an assist, giving him points in three of his last four games.  With 12 points in 40 games he is on a 25-point pace that would top his career best (21 points in 2014-2015).

-- We can start marking Braden Holtby's record in terms of national holidays.  He is 18-0-2 in his last 21 appearances.  Four national holidays in the United States -- Veterans Day, Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Year's Day -- have passed since his last loss in regulation, a 1-0 loss to the Detroit Red Wings on November 10th.

-- The Caps had 19 blocked shots, 11 of them by Matt Niskanen (6) and Dmitry Orlov (5).

-- The thing about young guys with skill is that sometimes they stand out, and sometimes they disappear.  After recording two goals in his previous four games, Andre Burakovsky did not record a shot attempt in 14:23 of ice time.

-- Ovechkin’s goal was his eighth in his last ten contests, three of those goals (including the goal in this game) being game-winners.

-- The possession game was interesting.  Overall, the Islanders out-attempted the Caps, 73-60.  However, at 5-on-5 the attempts were closer – 53-49, Isles.  In close score situations, the Caps had a 24-23 edge and had 13 scoring chances to nine for New York (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

In the end…

This game was a case of no individual player standing out so much as it was 20 guys playing their roles smartly.  This is not a sometime thing with this club these days.  Of course, there is the odd off game that creeps in, which is hardly unexpected over the course of an 82-game season.  The Caps have demonstrated an ability to avoid stringing such games together.  It has been a formula for unprecedented success.  Thirty wins in 40 games.  That is a 62-win pace.  It’s hard to think that the Caps will win 62 games this season (it would tie a league record set in 1995-1996 by the Detroit Red Wings), but at the moment this is the most consistent, most dominant team in the league.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 40: Capitals at Islanders, January 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals head into the great unknown on Thursday night when they take on the New York Islanders.  No, not into a black hole in space or into the deepest depths of the ocean, but to Barclays Center in Brooklyn, at which they will make their first ever appearance.

The Caps will visit Brooklyn having righted themselves, or so they hope, after stubbing their toe with a pair of losses to close last week.  Their 3-2 win over the Boston Bruins was a solid road game that they will hope to replicate against a team with whom they fought a hard, seven game series in the first round of last season’s playoffs.

On the other side, the Islanders have been doing some “righting” of their own.  After a stretch in which they lost four of five games ending with a 3-1 loss at home to the woeful Toronto Maple Leafs on December 27th, they have won three of their last four contests, two of those wins coming on the road (in Toronto and in Buffalo), and the third win coming in their last outing, a 6-5 win over the Western Conference-leading Dallas Stars.

This mini-stretch of four games has been a bit of an odd ride.  The offense is inconsistent and unsettled, bracketing six-goal performances against Toronto and Dallas around sparse two-goal efforts in Buffalo (2-1 win) and in Pittsburgh (in a 5-2 loss).  Meanwhile, the Isles defense and goaltending has been, if anything, more consistently bad in this run.  They allowed three or more goals in three of the four games (five goals twice), and their penalty kill has been dreadful, going 12-for-16 (75.0 percent).  That last statistic is made worse by the fact that all four opponent power play goals were scored in the last three games on just 12 attempts, a 66.7 percent penalty kill rate.

On an individual, “who’s hot, who’s not”  basis, there isn’t so much a “hot” Islander as there is some balance over the last four games.  Six different players have two goals apiece: Cal Clutterbuck, Anders Lee, Frans Nielsen, Nikolay Kulemin, John Tavares, and Kyle Okposo. 

All that is very nice for the Islanders, but it does leave a question of what’s up with Ryan Strome?  Last season, in his first full season with the club, Strome struck for 17 goals in 81 games.  One could envision a leap forward for the 22-year old, former fifth overall draft pick this season.  It has not happened.  Strome is on a pace to finish with roughly the same number of assists this year (31) that he had last season (33), but his goal scoring has dried up.  He has only three goals in 29 games this season and comes into this game on a 14-game streak without a goal.  He is 1-4-5, minus-1, in five career games against the Caps.

At another level of disappointment is the season John Tavares is having.  Being in the top-50 scorers among 776 skaters to have dressed for games this season is not the profile of a bad player, but it is not the level of production expected of Tavares, either.  He is the Islanders’ leading goal scorer and is second in points (15-14-29), but both his goals and assists are well below the pace he set when he finished fourth in the league in goals (38), tied for ninth in assists (48), and second in points (86).  He has shown recent signs of ramping up his production to levels to which we are more accustomed.  Tavares is 2-4-6 in his last six games.  He is 10-10-20, plus-3, in 21 career games against the Caps.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  The recent penalty killing problems are a bit odd, given that the Islanders are second in the league in penalty killing (85.6 percent).  It is an especially odd problem given that before the leaky last three games, the Islanders went 15 straight games without allowing a power play goal (35-for-35).  What they have been is stingy allowing power play goals at home.  Only Montreal and Chicago (five apiece) have allowed fewer than the Islanders (seven). 

2.  The Islanders sure are “Team Meh.”  They rank in the middle third in so many statistical categories… Power play (17th/18.8 percent), shots per game (14th/29.8), shots against per game (11th/30.4), faceoff winning percentage (15th/50.0), winning record in one-goal games (T-14th/10-5-5), wins when outshooting opponents (T-14th/10).  It is the profile of a team that neither does things especially well, nor especially poorly.

3.  What the Islanders can do is mount comebacks.  An 8-10-3 record when allowing the first goal does not look impressive, but it is the fifth best such record in the league.  But those comebacks don’t occur late in games.  The Islanders are 1-10-2 when trailing after two periods, tied for the seventh-worst record in the league.  Only four teams are without a win when trailing after 40 minutes, making that one win look even worse.

4.  The Islanders seem to have problems with some basic aspects of the game, at least so far as bench management is concerned.  Only two teams have more bench minor penalties that the Islanders (7): San Jose (8) and Detroit (9).

5.  New York has a rather pronounced difference in their possession numbers as far as ranking is concerned.   They are 21^st in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 in away games this season (47.3 percent), but they rank 11^th in the same statistic at home (51.9 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Washington plays the front runner role very well.  No team has more wins when scoring first (21), they are one of three teams with a perfect record when leading after one period (13-0-0; New Jersey and Philadelphia are the other perfect teams), and no team has more wins when leading after two periods (20).

2.  Folks probably know by now that Alex Ovechkin is four goals away from 500 for his career.  Not as many folks might know that Jason Chimera is four assists from 200 in his career.

3.  There are 26 active goaltenders with at least 20 career shutouts. Braden Holtby is one of them (22), and he has played in at least 35 fewer games than any of the other 25.

4.  Nicklas Backstrom is putting together a quietly efficient season as a goal scorer.  He is on a pace to finish with 25 goals, which would be the second highest total of his career, and his 18.0 shooting percentage is a career best to date.

5.  Washington’s possession numbers on the road have really deteriorated of late.  In their last 13 away games their Corsi-for is 45.4.  Over that period they were over 50 percent just three times, at Winnipeg on December 5^th (a 2-1 overtime loss), at Buffalo on December 28^th (a 2-0 win), and at Boston on Tuesday (a 3-2 win; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York:  Jaroslav Halak

Jaroslav Halak last appeared in a game for the Islanders on December 21^st, allowing two goals on 29 shots in a 5-2 win over the Anaheim Ducks.  Since then he has been on the shelf with an upper body injury.  He was taken off the injured reserve list on Tuesday, meaning he could return to action against the Caps on Thursday.  Thomas Greiss has not played poorly in his absence, his 3.33 goals against average more a function of high shot volumes faced (40.0 shots per 60 minutes), although his save percentage of .917 is middle-of-the-pack.  Getting Halak back would seem important to keep the Islanders from losing contact with the Caps in the Metropolitan Division standings entirely (they trail by 12 points).  Halak has been solid this season with a 10-6-3, 2.09, .923 record with two shutouts. He was slightly better than that leading up to his injury, going 5-2-2, 2.04, .926 in his most recent nine appearances.  Halak is 6-4-0, 2.67, .896 in ten career regular season appearances against the Caps.

Washington: Dmitry Orlov

Dmitry Orlov’s offensive production has been promising on one level.  He has already tied his goal output of the last season in which he played for the Caps (3, in 54 games in 2013-2014), and he has surpassed his point production from that season (11) with his 14 points to date.  On another level, he might need to strive for more consistency.  Over his last 22 games he has had a four game points streak (3-2-5), an eight game streak without a point, four assists over a four-game span, and a five-game streak without a point before he recorded an assist against Boston in Tuesday’s 3-2 win.  He has one goal in seven career games against the Islanders.

In the end…

If the Islanders allow shot volumes to the Caps in the same fashion as they have recently – three straight games allowing 40-plus shots, an average of 39.6 over their last five games – this game will not end well for the hosts.  That argues for the Caps applying pressure from the opening puck drop to force the Islanders into a defensive crouch.  The Caps have had some issues scoring in recent games, scoring fewer than three goals in three of their last seven games, but this could be an opportunity to improve on their scoring statistics. 

Capitals 5 – Islanders 2