The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 49: Islanders at Capitals, February 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The NHL is settling into its schedule rhythm after the All-Star game break, and that means the Washington Capitals get an opportunity to wash the taste of their 5-2 loss to the Florida Panthers on Tuesday night when the New York Islanders visit Verizon Center on Thursday night.

The Capitals will be looking to avoid consecutive regulation losses for the first time this season and a third straight loss for the first time this season, while the Islanders look to build on their 5-3 win over the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday.

For the Islanders, that win over the Wild extended a pattern of alternating wins and losses over their last five games (3-1-1).  In outscoring opponents 16-11 in those five games, it was plainly a case of scoring to win.  In the three games the Islanders recorded three or more goals, they won.  In those in which they did not, they lost.

John Tavares leads the overall scoring over the last five games for the Islanders (2-4-6).  In what has been an off year for him, compared to last season, Tavares has been streaky of late.  In five games from December 21st through January 2nd, he was 2-4-6, plus-1.  He followed that up with a three games stretch without a point, going minus-4 in the process.  In his last six games he is 2-5-7, plus-3.  An odd Tavares fact…four of his first 11 goals this season were game-winners, recorded in 21 games.  He does not have a game-winning goal among the six he has in his last 24 games.  Tavares is 10-10-20, plus-2, in 22 career games against the Capitals.

Brock Nelson leads the goal scorers over the Isles’ last five games with three.  Those three tallies got him to the 20-goal mark, tying a career-best set last season in 82 games.  He has done it by ramping up his shooting percentage.  Among 391 players recording at least 50 shots on goal so far, his 17.8 percent shooting ranks eighth in the league.  He has seven goals (including a hat trick against the Columbus Blue Jackets on January 12^th) over his last eight games on 24 shots (29.2 percent).  Nelson is 1-2-3, even, in eight career games against Washingon.

Is there a goaltender controversy brewing in Brooklyn?  For the Islanders’ last contest against the Minnesota Wild, head coach Jack Capuano reached past Jaroslav Halak and Thomas Greiss to pluck Jean-Francois Berube out of Bridgeport in the AHL and send him between the pipes.  There was some speculation that this was prelude to a trade, but Berube acquitted himself well in stopping 40 of 43 shots in the Islanders’ 5-3 win.  He was the fourth goaltender to appear in a game for the Islanders this season (Christopher Gibson appearing in one game on January 2^nd, a 5-2 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins).

It would seem, though, that one of the two principals will get the call in this game.  If it is Greiss, the Caps will be facing a goalie they have no book against, a goalie with one career appearance against Washington (a 39-save effort in a 5-3 win in February 2012 when he was tending goal for the San Jose Sharks).  However, he is the sort of player who Caps fans might familiar in his off-ice experience. 

If it is Halak, the Caps will be facing a goalie who has been steady, if not spectacular, since the calendar turned over.  In his last four appearances he is 2-1-1, 1.72, .940.  It might seem a bit surprising to Caps fans that he has only 11 regular season career appearances against the Caps in which he is 6-5-0, 2.70, .899.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Look out for those last 20 minutes.  Of the 16 goals scored by the Islanders over their last five games, 10 came in the final 20 minutes.

2.  Power plays are an unfamiliar concept to the Islanders on the road.  Only the Anaheim Ducks have had fewer power play opportunities on the road (54) than the Islanders (57) this season.

3.  Still on special teams facts, only four teams have allowed more shorthanded goals overall than the Islanders (5): Colorado (6), Dallas (7), New Jersey (7), and Arizona (9).

4.  Those ten third period goals in their last five games is no fluke.  Only three teams have scored more in the third period this season than the Islanders (54 goals): the New York Rangers (56), the Caps (60), and the Dallas Stars (68).

5. New York is not a particularly adept team on the road in terms of possession.  They rank 19^th in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall (47.5 percent), 16^th in score-adjusted Corsi (49.5), and 22^nd in close score situations (46.6; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Caps went 0-for-8 on the power play against the Florida Panthers in their 5-2 loss on Tuesday.  What a difference just one power play goal might have made.  The Caps are 22-0-2 in the 24 games in which they recorded at least one power play goal.

2.  More on the power play… the Caps have more games played this season with two or more power play goals scored than any other team.  Their 11-0-1 record in those 12 games is better than the 8-2-0 record the second-ranked San Jose Sharks have, the only other team with ten or more games of multi-power play goals scored.

3.  The Caps and the Minnesota Wild are the only teams in the NHL to have allowed fewer than 40 total goals in each of the three regulation periods this season.

4.  Washington has the best record in the league in one-goal games this season (13-2-4/.684).  They have the second-best record in games decided by three or more goals (15-5/.750).  They can win close or win big.

5.  The Caps finished their 5-2 loss on Tuesday with a Corsi-for of 67.2 percent, their highest such mark of the season.  Seven times they have hit or passed the 60-percent mark, and their record in those games is 4-2-1.  They accomplished the feat five times at home, going 3-1-1 in those games.  Oddly enough, the only team against which they did it twice was the Florida Panthers, and the Caps recorded an overtime win and a regulation loss in those games (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Mikhail Grabovski

When the Capitals signed Mikhail Grabovski as a free agent before the 2013-2014 season, it was to give the center a bigger role than the bottom-six role he was chained to with the Toronto Maple Leafs.  Oddly enough, his average ice time with the Caps was barely distinguishable in his only season in Washington (15:45) than what he averaged in his last season in Toronto (15:34).  Now, having moved on to the Islanders, his ice time is shrinking once more – 14:16 in average ice time last season and 13:54 in 48 games so far this season.  If he continues on that pace it will be his lowest average ice time for a full season in his career (he averaged 13:18 in three games in his first season in 2006-2007 and 11:14 in 24 games the following season).  Despite the comparatively limited exposure, Grabovski is fifth on the team in total points (23) and sixth in goals (8).  He and Kyle Okposo are the only Islanders to record an overtime goal this season.  Grabovski is 3-10-13, plus-7, in 21 career games against Washington.

Washington: Braden Holtby

Except for a brief stint in the first round All-Star game against the Atlantic Division, Braden Holtby will have had an eight-day break since his last serious action (a 28 save effort in a 4-3 overtime loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on January 27^th), and that game will have been his only game in 16 days.  He has a career 25-13-4 record on three or more days rest, a somewhat lower winning percentage (.595) than his record in other games (106-43-17/.639).  The Caps will be looking for him to play the role of stopper in this game to prevent the team from losing its third consecutive game for the first time this season.  In 11 career appearances against the Islanders, Holtby is 8-1-2, 2.11, .936.

In the end…

The Caps are entering a part of their schedule that features more intra-divisional matchups.  Starting with this game, the Caps play three straight against Metropolitan Division opponents.  Beating the Islanders would be a good start on driving a stake through any hopes any Metro team has of overtaking the Caps this season.

Capitals 4 – Islanders 2

A Picture is Worth...

...a thousand words.  So let's get right to it.  See anything odd about last night's Capitals shot chart on the power play (thank you, war-on-ice.com)?

No??  How about NOW?!

What seems to be missing??

Washington Capitals Recap: A NO-Point Night: Panthers 5 - Capitals 2

It was a contest between two teams that could lay claim to being the hottest club in the NHL over the last month. When the final horn sounded, one team could still make that claim. The other was left wondering what hit them. Unfortunately, it was the Washington Capitals looking around and doing the wondering as the Florida Panthers scored two goal in each of the first two periods to take a 4-0 lead, then coasted to a 5-2 win at Verizon Center.

The Panthers got on the board with goals a little more than four minutes apart in the first period, first when Jonathan Huberdeau scored from point blank range off a pass from Jaromir Jagr, then on a 5-on-3 power play with Aleksander Barkov taking a behind the back pass from Nick Bjugstad and snapping the puck past goalie Philipp Grubauer.

Florida doubled their lead in the second period, first just 21 seconds into the period on a what might be termed a softie as Vincent Trocheck snapped a harmless looking shot from deep along the right wing wall under Grubauer’s pads. Huberdeau got his second goal of the game just over 15 minutes into the period on a power play when he snapped a shot from the top of the right wing circle off the pipe to Grubauer’s left and in.

The Caps had their fans inching up in their seats in the first two minutes of the third period when they struck for two goals.  Nicklas Backstrom notched his 17th goal of the season as a power play was expiring just 34 seconds into the period.  Evgeny Kuznetsov, still occupying the low position to the left of goalie Al Montoya, tried to thread a pass through the crease to T.J. Oshie, but the pass was interrupted by defenseman Erik Gudbranson.  The puck bounced to the edge of the crease near the post where Backstrom gathered it up, pulled it to his forehand, and tucked it past Montoya’s left pad to make it a 4-1 game.

Andre Burakovsky struck 79 seconds later.  Kuznetsov controlled the puck below the Panthers’ goal line and slid a pass between two defenders to Burakovsky in the left wing circle.  Burakovsky drew the puck to his forehand and whipped a shot past Montoya’s blocker on the near side to make it 4-2 just 1:53 into the period.

That would be as close as the Caps would get, though.  Quinten Howden scored into an empty net with 1:53 left to give Florida a 5-2 win and put the Caps off on the wrong foot to begin the post-All-Star game portion of the season.

Other stuff…

-- Andre Burakovsky’s goal (his eighth of the season) bumped his goal-scoring streak to three games, over which he has doubled his season’s production.  He also has points in six of his last seven games (4-6-10, plus-5).

-- If you didn’t look at the scoreboard, you would swear the Caps beat the Panthers by a touchdown.  They doubled Florida’s shots on goal (38-19) and out-attempted the Panthers, 65-30.  That’s right, the Caps had eight more shots on goal than the Panthers had total attempts.  Stick that in your Corsi.

-- Stanislav Galiev did not do himself any favors in this game.  Playing in place of Alex Ovechkin (suspension) on the left wing of the top line, he recorded one shot on goal, two attempts, and two giveaways.  He recorded three shifts in the third period, only one in the last 13:14 of the game, that coming in the last minute with the game decided.

-- The new calendar year certainly agrees with Evgeny Kuznetsov.  Already named player-of-the-month for January, he started February as if he wanted to make it two months in a row.  His two assists made it four multi-point games in his last six contests, and he is 4-14-18, plus-8, in 11 games so far in 2016.

-- It was going to happen sooner or later. The life of a backup goalie is not easy, not being able to get into a regular playing rhythm.  In his first start in more than three weeks, Philipp Grubauer was as sharp as a cheese spreader, which is to say, “not much.”  He allowed four goals on the first 13 shots he faced over 35 minutes and change.  Low shot volumes faced, getting a start for the first time since people were still thinking of going to the gym to honor their New Year’s resolutions?  Bad mix.

-- With his goal in the third period, Nicklas Backstrom extended his points streak to four games.  That, in and of itself, is not unusual for Backstrom, but four of the five points he has in those games being goals is.  He has six goals in his last nine games and is now on a pace to record his second career 30-goal season (he had 33 goals in 2009-2010).

-- Back to Burakovsky.  Ten shot attempts, ten shots on goal.  This guy would be something at a state fair shooting arcade.

-- Matt Niskanen also had ten shot attempts.  His five shots on goal is a season high for him.

-- Wouldn’t you know it?  The Caps were awarded eight power play opportunities – a season high (all in the first two periods) – and Alex Ovechkin is in the press box serving a suspension.  The Caps went 0-for-8, including drawing a blank on a 1:17 5-on-3 opportunity.  Florida scored two power play goals in four chances, including one on a 5-on-3 advantage.  There was your game.

-- Think the Panthers went into a shell late?  They recorded five shot attempts from Burakovsky’s goal at the 1:53 mark in the third period until Quinton Howden’s empty net goal at the 18:07 mark, a span of 16:14.

In the end…

Repeat after me…”it’s only one game…it’s only one game.”  One game, indeed.  It was the first game for the Caps in six days, only their second in two weeks.  That’s a beer league schedule.  And for all that, the Caps outplayed the Panthers, but the visitors did better as, well, predators (it’s a big cat thing).  They scored on the man advantage, the Caps did not.  Some of that can be attributed to their big power play weapon being out of action, but eight chances and no goals?  The guys who were on the ice own a big piece of that result.

The Caps get a chance to get back on track on Thursday against the Islanders, who are looking to leap over the New York Rangers as the closest divisional pursuers to the Caps.  If Washington “plays” as well as they did against the Panthers, they should have a happier result, but nothing is guaranteed in this league, not even for the team with the league’s best record.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 48: Panthers at Capitals, February 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The prelude and parties are over, the “first half” of the 2015-2016 NHL season in the books and the All-Star festivities in Nashville a memory.  Now, it’s down to business.  For the Washington Capitals, who recorded the league’s best record in the pre-All-Star portion of the season, getting back to business starts with a challenge and perhaps an unexpected one if you think back to early-season prognostications.

The Caps open the post-All-Star portion of the season hosting their closest pursuers in the Eastern Conference race, the Florida Panthers, in a nationally-televised game on Tuesday night.  We use the term “closest pursuer” advisedly, the Panthers being 11 standings points behind the Caps as the NHL resumes play.  Here is the thing, though.  When the Caps beat the Pittsburgh Penguins on December 14th and overtook the Montreal Canadiens for first place in the Eastern Conference, they held a 12-point lead on the Panthers.  Since then, the Caps are 14-2-2.  The Panthers are 15-3-1.

That the Panthers would be this good over this much of the season was not what was envisioned for that club as the season dawned.  Sure, most folks thought a Florida team would be the class of the Atlantic Division, but the consensus was that the team would be the Tampa Bay Lightning, a club that reached the Stanley Cup final last season.

The Panthers road to that 15-3-1 record since mid-December has been uneven, to say the least. “Streaky” would be a better description.  They started that seven-week run with a 12-game winning streak, longest in the league this season (since tied by the Chicago Blackhawks).  They followed that up with a four-game losing streak (0-3-1), but come to Washington on a three-game winning streak.

Those last three games should be cause for concern for Caps fans, for the wins were not of the “squeaked-by” variety.  Florida beat Chicago, the Lightning, and the Toronto Maple Leafs by margins of at least three goals in each victory, outscoring the trio by a combined 14-3 margin.

The goal scoring was led by Reilly Smith, who has three of those 14 goals scored by the Panthers in their last three games, two of them game-winners (in the 4-0 win over Chicago on January 22nd and the 5-2 win over Tampa Bay the following night).  Smith will bring a four-game goal scoring streak into this contest, tying his longest of the season.  With that streak, Smith lifted himself into the team lead in goals scored this season (16), and he is closing in on a career high (20 goals in 2013-2014 with Boston).  In eight career games against Washington, Smith is 0-1-1, minus-3.

Brian Campbell, along with Smith (3-1-4) and Olli Jokinen (1-3-4) has four points over the Panthers’ three most recent wins (2-2-4).  For Campbell is it part of a four-game points streak that he brings into this game (2-3-5, plus-4) after registering just a two points (both assists) over his previous 13 contests.  The two goals he scored – in the wins over Chicago and Tampa Bay – interrupted a 23-game drought in which he failed to record one.  The recent point spurt was a welcome occurrence in light of his performance over the past four seasons over which his points per game dropped from 0.65 per game in 2011-2012 to 0.33 last season.  Until this five-points-in-four-games run he was averaging 0.31 points per game.  Campbell is 4-18-22, minus-15, in 42 career games against the Caps.

The question in goal for the Panthers might be whether head coach Gerard Gallant calls on Roberto Luongo after his all-star turn this past weekend.  He went into the break on a roll, stopping 87 of 90 shots over three games (all wins). Among goalies with more than 1,200 minutes of ice time, Luongo ranks tied for sixth in wins (22, with New Jersey’s Cory Schneider), fifth in goals against average (2.08), fifth in save percentage (.930), and tied for third in shutouts (four).  He has yet to allow more than three goals in consecutive games this season.  He is also 12-2-1 in his last 15 appearances with a 1.65 goals against average, a .944 save percentage, and three shutouts.  If there are hotter goalies in the league, it is a short list. Luongo is 20-10-0, 2.29, .926, with two shutouts in 36 career appearances against Washington.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Florida spreads their contributions around in one respect.  The Panthers have 14 different players with game-winning goals, led by Aleksander Barkov with four.  By comparison the Capitals, with nine more regulation/overtime wins, have the same number of players with game-winning goals (14).

2.  If one was to ask, “who leads the Panthers in power play points?” would you answer “Jaromir Jagr?” If you did, you would be wrong.  Ditto for Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, Brian Campbell, and Nick Bjugstad.  The winning answer is “Vincent Trocheck,” who has nine (4-5-9).

3.  Florida is 15-0-0 in the last 15 games in which defenseman Aaron Ekblad dressed.

4.  If the Panthers trail at either or both of the intermissions, it will not be a good sign for them.  Florida ranks 26th in winning percentage when trailing after one period (1-9-2/.083) and 27th in winning percentage when trailing after two periods (1-13-1.0.67).

5. Are the Panthers looking at a correction?  Over their last nine games, Florida has a Corsi-for in close score situations of 44.7 percent at 5-on-5, and three times they were under 35 percent (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Caps lead the league in players with a plus-10 or better. They have ten of the 61 players in this group. 

2.  Washington has five defensemen with ten or more points this season (John Carlson, Matt Niskanen, Dmitry Orlov, Karl Alzner, and Nate Schmidt).  Only one team, the New York Rangers, has more (six).

3.  This will be the eighth game Alex Ovechkin will miss in his career due to suspension (this penalty for being absent from the All-Star game).  The Caps are 4-1-2 in his previous seven absences due to suspension.

4.  Washington is the only team in the NHL with an average goal differential of greater than 1.00 goals per game (1.13).  It is almost twice that of the second-place club (Dallas Stars: 0.58).

5. The Caps are going to be looking to improve one possession number in this contest.  Over their last four games going into the All-Star game break, the Caps had an aggregate close score Corsi-for of 41.8 percent at 5-on-5 (numbers from war-on-ice.com). 

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Florida: Jaromir Jagr

The last time the Caps faced the Panthers, we pondered Jaromir Jagr.  At the time we said…

“He has just two points in his last six games and does not have a goal in his last eight contests.   What is more, the shots are drying up.  He has two or fewer shots on goal in his last eight games, and only once in his last 18 games (24 shots on goal overall).  At the age of 43 it would be reasonable to wonder if the run is starting to come to an end.”

A lot we know.  Jagr had a goal in that contest against the Caps (in a 4-1 Panther win), and starting with that contest he went on a 7-5-12 run over his next 14 games with 29 shots on goal to boot.  Not bad for a 43-year old.  However, since that run he went 0-1-1 in six games leading into the All-Star game break.  Did the break rejuvenate him, or is this a wall the soon-to-be 44-year old (February 15th) is hitting?  Jagr is closing in on 1,800 regular season and playoff games in his NHL career.  His 1,596 career regular season games leads all active players by a wide margin (Jarome Iginla is second with 1,444).  It might be a fool’s errand to count Jagr as slowing down, but he has been an important ingredient to the Panthers’ success this season; they are 17-6-2 in games in which he recorded a point this season.  Can he sustain that level of contribution down the stretch?  That is something that bears watching as the Panthers try to dig in to the Caps’ lead in the Eastern Conference.  Jagr is 31-60-91, plus-15 in 79 career games against the Capitals.

Washington: T.J. Oshie

Alex Ovechkin is sitting out this game under suspension under league rules, Marcus Johansson was banged up in the Caps’ last game against Philadelphia before heading into the All-Star game break.  This is where a player like T.J. Oshie has an opportunity to step up.  And it would be just in time.  Oshie has been in a bit of a shooting slump lately.  He comes into this game without a goal in his last five contests, one goal in his last nine games, and two in his last 15.  Over those 15 games he is 2-for-23.  It is not a god-awful shooting percentage (8.7 percent), but that 1.53 shots per game average over that span is a bit unsettling for the top-line right winger.  He had one or no shots in nine of those contests.  In Florida he has found a stubborn foe.  In ten career games against the Panthers, he has yet to record a goal (0-1-1, plus-3).

In the end…

Florida has missed the postseason in 14 of the last 15 seasons coming into the 2015-2016 campaign.  These Panthers are not those Panthers, though.  With their next win they will hit the 30-win mark, one that has been reached by only four other teams to date, including the Caps.  They are the kind of club that will bore you to death, thoroughly capable of winning close, low-scoring games (the Panthers rank fifth-lowest in total goals scored by both teams per game: 4.83).

The Caps have just two goals scored in regulation time this season against the Panthers (they scored another in overtime in a 2-1 win on Hallowe’en).  Three of the last five games between these clubs went to extra time, two of them to the Gimmick.  In four of those five games the losing team was held to a single goal.  This does not promise to be a game of fireworks, especially with the Caps’ leading goal scorer sitting it out.  That is going to put a premium on fundamentals, defense, and goaltending.  Three things that the Caps have been pretty good at for most of this season.

Capitals 2 – Panthers 1

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 16

Week 16 for the Washington Capitals was as light a work week as one gets for an NHL team.  Postponement of their contest against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Sunday made for a one-game week, a 4-3 overtime loss to the Philadelphia Flyers.  It was not the way the Caps might have wanted to go into the All-Star Game break, but the break came at a welcome time.

Record: 0-0-1

The overtime loss earned the Caps a point for the week, but it was still the first non-winning week since they went 1-1-1 in Week 5.  It did not keep them from going into the All-Star Game break with the league’s best record at 35-8-4.  Their 74 standings points are four more than the Chicago Blackhawks, and the Caps have six games in hand.  Their 1.57 standings points per game is well clear of the second-place Dallas Stars (1.34).

If you are trying to divine anything out of this, consider the history of teams leading the league in points at the major season breaks (All-Star Game or Olympics) since the 2004-2005 lockout:

Let’s think of this as an incentive to buck the trend.

Offense:  3.00/game (season: 3.32 /game; rank: 1st)

The Caps headed into the All-Star break with the league’s top scoring offense, a ranking they have not finished a season with since they led the league in 2009-2010 with a scoring average of 3.82 goals per game (still the top scoring offense of the post 2004-2005 lockout period).  It is a 12.2 percent improvement on the scoring average they took into last season’s All-Star game break (2.96).

In 47 games to date the Caps scored five or more goals 12 times and have a record of 12-0-0 in those games.  In the 22 games in which they scored four or more goals they are 21-0-1.  Compare that to last season when the Caps scored five or more goals seven times in 46 games going into the All-Star break with a record of 5-1-1.  In 16 games in which they scored four or more goals they had a record of 12-2-2.

Defense: 4.00/game (season: 2.19 /game; rank: 2nd)

If defense wins championships, the Caps have one capable of achieving that outcome. Had they not allowed the goal in overtime to the Flyers last Wednesday, the Caps would have the best scoring defense in the league.  As it is, they went into the break with the second-best scoring defense, the 2.19 goals per game they allowed substantially better than their second best performance since the 2004-2005 lockout (2.33 goals per game in 2010-2011).

The Caps possession numbers to date have far underperformed their win-loss record, and that might be the biggest concern at the break.  Washington ranks 14^th in the league in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall (50.4 percent), eighth in score-adjusted Corsi-for (52.0 percent), and 16^th in close score situations (49.6 percent).  Those numbers are a bit under the ones the Caps posted heading into last year’s All-Star break – 51.5 percent overall, 52.3 percent in score-adjusted Corsi-for, and 52.7 percent in close score situations (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Goaltending: 3.98 /.875 (season: 2.08 / .928 / 2 shutouts)

At this year’s All-Star game break there are 35 goaltenders who have logged at least 1,200 minutes of ice time.  Of that group, Braden Holtby ranks at or near the top in a number of categories:

• Wins: 30/1^st 
• Goals-Against Average: 2.07/4^th
• Save Percentage: .929/7^th
• Even-Strength Save Percentage: .937/7^th

He has been the key part in the Caps’ goaltending profile that is flirting with a team goals against average of 2.00 per game and a save percentage bumping up against the .930 mark overall.  Holtby is, at the break, on a short list of candidates to win the Vezina Trophy. 

What the Caps have had in addition to Holtby’s excellent start is fine relief goaltending.  Philipp Grubauer shook off a sluggish start to go 5-3-1, 2.12, .925 in 11 appearances.  He has been even better of late.  In his last six appearances covering 265 minutes of ice time, Grubauer is 3-1-0, 1.36, .955.

In both Holtby and Grubauer the Caps find themselves in better position at the position than they were heading into the All-Star break last season.  Holtby was having a fine season, posting a 22-9-8/2.26/.921/4 shutout record at the break.  What they were not getting enough of was solid netminding in his absence.  Justin Peters was 2-4-1/3.52/.864, and those numbers dragged the overall goaltending numbers to 2.47/.913.

The better backup goaltending has not made an appreciable dent in Holtby’s workload, though.  Last season he had 40 appearances in 46 games heading into the All-Star break, logging a total of 2,332 minutes.  This season, through 47 games going into the break, he has 39 appearances  and 2,264 minutes, about four fewer periods of hockey.  Even in shots faced, Holtby’s workload is similar to last year’s.  At this time last year he faced 28.8 shots per 60 minutes.  At the moment, that number is 28.9 shots per 60 minutes.

Power Play: 0-for-2 / 0.0 percent (season: 26.8 percent; rank: 1st)

Week 16 might have been one game’s worth of action, but it was representative of the team’s power play in a strange way.  At the end of their 4-3 overtime loss to the Flyers, a game in which they had just two power play chances, the Caps ranked 24^th overall in power play chances for the season.  They ranked 28^th in power play chances on home ice.  That they would still lead the league in total power play goals scored (38) and rank third in power play goals scored at home (23) says a lot about the most efficient power play in the league overall (26.8 percent) and on home ice (30.0 percent).

The total chances do, however, represent a bit of an improvement over where they were going into the break last season.  At this time last year, the Caps had 135 power play opportunities in 46 games.  At the moment they have 142 opportunities in 47 games.  They are more efficient with those opportunities, posting a 26.8 percent overall power play this season compared to 24.4 percent at this time last season.

The big difference, year-to-year, is what the Caps have done with those power play goals scored.  What they have done is win more often.  In fact, the Caps have yet to lose a game in regulation when scoring a power play goal (22-0-2, including 13-0-0 at home).  Last season at the All-Star break they were just 13-8-7 in game in which they recorded at least on power play goal.

What is perhaps most encouraging about the power play improvement is that it is not a function of the production of Alex Ovechkin.  At the All-Star break last season, 12 of his 27 goals were scored on the power play.  As of this weekend, 11 of his 28 goals scored this season were recorded with the man advantage.

Penalty Killing: 4-for-5 / 80.0 percent (season: 84.7 percent; rank: 4th)

The difference on the other side of special teams from year-to-year at the All-Star break boils down to one word – discipline.  Through 47 games this season, the Caps are tied for the sixth fewest number of shorthanded situations faced (144).  Through 46 games at the break last season the Caps had faced 156 chances, a reduction of better than eight percent.  It has been part of a significant improvement in penalty killing efficiency.  At the All-Star break last season the Caps were killing penalties at a 79.5 percent rate.  Today, they rank fourth in the league with a penalty kill more than five percentage points better.

Success on the penalty kill seems to bear little relationship to wins and losses this season.  The Caps are 20-5-1 when posting a perfect penalty kill, 15-3-3 when they allow the opponent at least one power play tally.  Instances of shorthanded situations are a bit of a different story. The Caps are 26-6-2 when facing three or fewer shorthanded situations, 9-3-2 when they face more than three such situations.

In the end…

The All-Star game break provides an opportunity to take stock and see just if, where, and how the team has improved on a year-to-year basis.  The Caps have that gaudy record that looks like Secretariat’s stretch run in the Belmont Stakes in 1973.  They have not done it the way the new generation of methodologists would argue is key to success, by dominating possession statistics. In that regard, the Caps are a rather ordinary team.  This should give fans pause who want to find a place to set up their lawn chairs for the championship parade in June.

What they have done is avoid the hills and valleys (mostly the valleys) that a team usually encounters over the course of an 82-game season.  It is a team that can be characterized as “taking care of business,” and that shows up in a couple of performance statistics – early game performance and goal differential by period.  The Caps have displayed a talent, not just of taking a lead (they have the seventh-highest rate of leads taken to games played – 55.3 percent),  but in holding it.  Their 25-1-0 record when scoring first leads the league in winning percentage (.962).  And, they have yet to lose a game in regulation when leading after one period (17-0-0) or when leading after two periods (26-0-1), the only team in the league that can make that claim.

The goal differential by period reflects a certain focus, a “60 minute” approach that has been lacking among many previous editions of the club.  Until they allowed two goals to the Flyers in the lone game of Week 16, the Caps were the only club in the league with a plus-10 or better goal differential in each of the three regulation periods.  As it is, they are plus-9 in the first periods of games, and their plus-22 in each of the second and third periods of games is tops in the league for both.

It is hard to say that there is room for improvement for a team with a 35-8-4 record at the All-Star game break, but the possession numbers do stand out as something to follow as the stretch run begins on the 2015-2016 season.  If those measures improve, the Caps will be an even more formidable team than the one that dominated in the pre-All-Star game portion of the season.

Three Stars at the Break:

• First Star: Braden Holtby (30-5-3, 2.07, .929, two shutouts)
• Second Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (15-34-49, plus-24, 3 game-winning goals)
• Third Star: Alex Ovechkin (28-14-42, plus-20, 5 game-winning goals)

Washington Capitals Recap: A ONE-Point Night: Flyers 4 - Capitals 3 (OT)

The Washington Capitals waited eight days since their last game to face competition, and when the ice chips settled at Verizon Center, they found that the hiatus had its price as the Philadelphia Flyers skated off with a 4-3 overtime win.  The loss broke the Capitals’ home winning streak at 12 games.

It was a game in which the Caps found themselves always chasing – the Flyers, the puck, and a lead.  They spent most of the game unsuccessful at the first two and never did achieve the last.  It started less than five minutes into the contest.  Tom Wilson was sent off at the 4:48 mark on an interference penalty, and the Flyers struck just six seconds later.  After Claude Giroux won the ensuing faceoff from Mike Richards, the Flyers worked the puck clockwise around the perimeter until Wayne Simmonds found Brayden Schenn in the slot for a one-timer that beat goalie Braden Holtby. 

A little over six minute later the Flyers had a two-goal lead, courtesy of a brutal turnover from Evgeny Kuznetsov.  Skating around the back of his own net, Kuznetsov threw a backhand pass into the middle where Ryan White picked it off.  From between the hash marks, White snapped the puck past Holtby, and it was 2-0 barely 11 minutes into the game.

That was the way the teams went to the locker room at the first intermission, and when play resumed it was the Caps dominating.  They capitalized when the Flyers could not get the puck out of their own end.  A pass from White to Sam Gagner proved to hot to handle, and the puck bounced free to Nate Schmidt, who slid it to Andre Burakovsky in the high slot.  Burakovsky had time to pick is spot, and his picked it well, firing the puck just over goalie Michal Neuvirth’s left pad to make it 2-1.

Nicklas Backstrom tied the game less than a minute later.  The Caps skated up on a 3-on-3 rush, led by T.J. Oshie carrying the puck down the left side.  Skating down the wall, Oshie spied Backstrom as the late trailer, and he fed Backstrom skating down the middle.  From the inside edge of the right wing faceoff circle, Backstrom wristed the puck past Neuvirth, and it was a 2-2 game 8:34 into the second period.

The Flyers recaptured the lead late in the period on a goal by Jakub Voracek, who fired a shot though a maze of bodies from the far edge of the right wing circle off a faceoff win by Giroux.  The 3-2 Flyer lead was how the teams would enter the third period.

The only goal of the final frame came in the fourth minute.  Kuzetsov redeemed his turnover in the first period with some hustle and deft stick work.  After Justin Williams chipped the puck into the Flyer end, it got caught up in the skates of Scott Laughton.  Kuznetsov pounced on the opportunity, digging the puck out of Laughton’s skates and turning toward the goal.  Working the puck around Mark Streit, he found Burakovsky skating down the weak side.  Kuznetsov slid the puck over, and Burakovsky rang a shot off the inside of the pipe on the near side past Neuvirth to make it 3-3 at the 3:55 mark.

That would be the way the score remained for the duration of regulation time, but things were settled shortly thereafter.  Voracek and Kuznetsov dueled behind the Caps’ net for the puck, and Voracek won the battle, circling out to the right of Holtby.  Spinning off Kuznetsov, with Holtby having lost his stick, Voracek snapped a shot over Holtby’s left shoulder and into the top corner on the far side to send the Flyers off with the 4-3 win.

Other stuff…

-- After the game, the Capitals announced that Alex Ovechkin would not participate in the All-Star game in Nashville this coming weekend.  The team stated that Ovechkin had been playing with an injury and made the decision with the long-term needs of the team in mind.  As a result, Ovechkin will serve a one-game suspension and will not participate in the Caps’ first game on the schedule after the All-Star game against the Florida Panthers on February 2^nd.

-- In a way, this game was something out of a Sherlock Holmes story, the dog that did not bark.  Or more precisely, the whistle that was not blown…twice.  Once when Dmitry Orlov took an elbow to the face behind his own net, and again when Michal Neuvirth directed the puck into the netting on a late Caps power play that might have provided a 5-on-3 advantage.

-- Andre Burakovsky is on a tear.  The two goals make it four games in his last six that he recorded two points.  He is 3-6-9 over those six games.

-- Nicklas Backstrom’s goal extended his points streak to three games.  He is 6-7-13 over his last 11 games.

-- Braden Holtby took a pair of minor penalties less than four minutes apart in the second period.  They were his first penalties of the season.

-- The Caps were down to 16 skaters by the end of this contest.  In addition to Dmitry Orlov taking an elbow in the chops (he did not skate the last 7:24 of regulation and did not skate in the overtime), Marcus Johansson left the game 12 minutes into the contest with an upper-body injury.

-- Two Capitals went out with injuries, but one returned from injury for this game.  John Carlson skated for the first time since December 26^th.  In 19 minutes of ice time he had one shot on goal, one shot attempt blocked, three blocked shots, and he finished a plus-1.

-- You would probably go through a few names on the Caps roster for this game before settling on Nicklas Backstrom as the team leader in credited hits (6).

-- The Caps came into this game plus-11 in first period goal differential; the Flyers came in at minus-18.  So, of course, the Flyers led, 2-0, after the first period.  Hockey is weird.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov wins the coupon for the all-you-can-eat buffet… an assist, five shots on goal, a shot attempt blocked, two misses, three hits, two giveaways, a takeaway, a blocked shot, and nine wins in 14 faceoffs taken to go with a minus-1.  With that point, he is 6-15-21, plus-10, over his last 16 games.

In the end…

The rust showed.  Add to that the fact that the Caps lost two players to injury, got one back who was just easing himself back in (to the extent you can do that in the NHL), had another who is banged up enough to miss the league’s All-Star game, and it was a recipe for disaster.  That it was not, that the Caps managed a point out of this game, is a sign of the club’s depth.

That is not to say they played well.  They did not.  The second line had an eventful night, and not all in a good way.  They were on ice for two of the three goals for (both scored by Andre Burakovsky with an assist on one to Evgeny Kuznetsov), and they were on ice for both even strength goals scored by the Flyers in regulation.  Kuznetsov was also on ice – and was victimized – for the game-winning goal in overtime.

Now, the Caps get almost another week off before taking the ice again.  There will be more rust to accumulate, and it will be a challenge to keep it from getting too thick.  They have  a large cushion in the standings with which to work, but a hallmark of this team has been its ability to keep one loss from becoming two.  That will be put to the test as the club takes some days off to tend to its wounds among some key players.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 47: Flyers at Capitals, January 27th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to the ice (we hope) on Wednesday night for the first time since January 19^th as the Philadelphia Flyers come to town in a nationally-televised affair at Verizon Center.

Not much has changed since the Caps defeated the Columbus Blue Jackets, 6-3, last week before Winter Storm Jonas came to town and overstayed his welcome.  The Caps had the best record in the NHL then, and they still have the league’s best record.  They led the league in scoring offense then, and they lead it now.  They were tops in scoring defense then, and they remain so now.  Power play…ditto.

Their opponents, the Flyers, have had their own interruption in play, a game against the New York Islanders scheduled for last Saturday that was postponed, but otherwise the Flyers have struggled recently.  After putting together a four-game winning streak earlier this month, tying their longest of the season, the Flyers are 1-3-1 in their last five games, their lone win coming at Detroit in a Gimmick against the Red Wings.  The odd part of that five-game run for the Flyers is that all five games were one-goal decisions.

Over those last five games, the Flyers have had the same problem that has plagued them all season – scoring goals.  They have just ten in those five games, entirely consistent with their 29^th-place ranking in scoring offense (2.24 goals/game).

In the “what have you done for us lately” file, there aren’t many Flyer skaters.  Only six Flyers have goals over their last five games, led by Wayne Simmonds with three.  The three goals lifted Simmonds into a tie for the team lead in goals with Claude Giroux and lifted him a bit out of the mini-slump in which he found himself.  He has four goals in his last six games after recording just three in his previous 14 contests.  Simmonds has been a remarkably consistent performer in his four-and-a-half seasons since arriving in Philadelphia from the Los Angeles Kings.  His goals-per-game have clustered between 0.30 (this season so far) and 0.37 (last season); his points have clustered between 0.60 (in 2011-2012, his first in Philadelphia) and 0.73 (in 2013-2014).  His shots per game range from 2.40 per game (in 2011-2012) to 2.55 (in 2013-2014).  And, he has missed only ten games in his Flyer career.  Simmonds is 5-6-11, plus-1, in 21 career games against the Capitals.

Claude Giroux is the player with whom Simmonds is tied in goals for the Flyers, and he has two tallies in the Flyers’ 1-3-1 slide.  For Giroux, it is part of a longer productive run in which he is 2-6-8, plus-2, over his last eight games.  Giroux has been another consistent player in his own right.  Starting in 2011-2012, when he set career hights in goals (28, since equaled), assists (65), and points (93), he has been a point-per-game player (108-229-337 in 334 games).  He is also making his way up the Flyers’ all-time lists.  A hat trick against the Caps (perish the thought) would place him in a tie for 16^th in all-time goals for the Flyers (Dave Poulin: 161).  His next power play goal would tie Scott Hartnell for 13^th in franchise history (57); his next shorthanded goal would lift him into the top-20 in Flyers’ history (he has five career shorthanded goals).  He is within 13 points of 500 and would become the 14^th player in Flyer history to reach that mark.  In 26 career games against the Caps, Giroux is 15-13-28, plus-2.

In goal, the Flyers might be a bit thin.  Michal Neuvirth was reported to be “limping badly” after the Flyers’ 3-2 loss to the Boston Bruins on Monday night.  That will put the role of backup into question, but it would seem that Neuvirth injury or not, Steve Mason would get the call in this game (unless he doesn't).  Mason’ overall statistics this season are hardly those for the scrapbook.  Of 41 goalies having logged at least 1,000 minutes this season, Mason is 33^rd in goals-against average (2.72) and 26^th in save percentage (.914).  He appeared to be piecing together a good stretch of appearances, but looking at his last five outings his save percentage has steadily deteriorated.  He started with a 20-save shutout of the New York Islanders on January 9^th, then saw that save percentage slide to .938, .935, .914, and finally .911 (albeit having faced 45 shots) in a 4-3 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins last Thursday.  Against the Caps, Mason is 7-4-2, 2.83, .904, with two shutouts in 14 career appearances.  There was some mystery on Tuesday about his availability, though (and Neuvirth’s for that matter)...

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Back to Mason for a moment.  If he gets the call, watch his shots-faced totals.  It appears that 30 shots faced is a magic threshold for him this season.  In nine appearances in which he faced fewer than 30 shots, Mason is 6-1-1 (one no-decision), 2.35, .903, with two shutouts.  In 20 appearances when facing more than 30 shots he is 4-11-5, 2.87, .917, with one shutout.  The bad news?  The Flyers are allowing the league’s second-most shots per game (32.4).

2.  The Flyers do not do much flying early in games.  No team has fewer first period goals scored than Philadelphia (22).  Only Ottawa has a worse first period goal differential (minus-18) than the Flyers (minus-18).

3.  If this is a one-goal game, it might be the Flyers’ best hope.  They are 13-5-8 in one-goal decisions, but 7-13 when the margin is two or more goals.

4.  As you might expect, the Flyers do not work or play well with others.  They rank second in the league in penalty minutes per game (12:24), and they rank third in fighting majors (21), behind Anaheim and Columbus (each with 27).  Twelve different Flyers have recorded fighting majors this season, led by Wayne Simmonds with four.

5.  The Flyers rank 16^th, right behind the Caps, In Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 overall (50.2).  They are a better team, rankings-wise, away from home.  Their 49.9 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall ranks 10^th, while their close score Corsi-for ranks 11^th (49.6).  That ranking drops when score-adjusted Corsi is considered (15^th/49.7; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  If the Caps earn a point in this game they will tie a record for fewest losses in regulation recorded in January.  The 1999-2000 team was 11-1-2-0.  A win would make this team 8-1-1 for the month, with two postponed games.

2.  Front runners…the Caps are the only team in the league not to lose a game in regulation when leading after one period (17-0-0) or when leading after two periods (26-0-1).  Just for good measure, they are the only team in the league with a .500 record when trailing after two periods (5-4-1). 

3.  Those ten instances in which they trailed after two periods is the lowest total in the league. The 27 instances in which they led after two periods also leads the league.

4.  The Caps have the league’s best home power play (30.9 percent), but they also have the fewest power play chances on home ice (68).

5.  The Caps will be looking to improve a home ice statistic in this game.  Over their last four games at Verizon Center they have a Corsi-for percentage of 54.7 overall and 56.9 in close score situations (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Shayne Gostisbehere

Rookie defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere packs a lot of offensive punch in a small frame.  At 5’11”, 160 pounds, he is among the smaller defensemen in the league, but he has eight goals and 12 assists for 20 points in 28 games this season (both numbers lead all rookie defensemen).  It was not as if a lot of people saw this coming.  Gostisbehere was not listed on the 2012 amateur rankings of North American skaters by Central Scouting, and he managed to climb to just 148^th place in the final rankings.  He was taken by the Flyers with the 78^th overall pick in the 2012 entry draft, the 26^th defenseman taken in that draft.  He is one of just 24 defensemen in that draft to have appeared in an NHL game so far, and he ranks 16^th on that list in career games played.  He ranks eighth on the list in goals and ninth in points.  Gostisbehere comes into this game riding a three-game points streak and will be making his first appearance against the Capitals.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin is on a pace to finish the season with 50 goals, a total that would earn him his  sixth Maurice Richard Trophy, if his closest competitors maintain their respective current paces.  That is not unusual; it would be his seventh 50-goal season and his fourth straight Richard Trophy.  The unusual part of his season is the power play, specifically assists. Through 45 games Ovechkin has just three assists on the power play, putting him on a pace to finish the season with just five.  It would be a career low in that statistic, wiping out the nine-assist season he had last year.  He has gone his last 15 games without recording a power play assist.  True, the power play does not go “through” him as much as is does go “to” him as its finisher, but the low assist total is unusual even by his standards.  Ovechkin is 29-17-46, minus-3, in 38 career games against the Flyers.

In the end…

Philly does not score much, and they appear to have health issues in goal.  These are not what one considers features in a winning formula against a team like the Caps that can score and prevent scoring with equal skill.  Nevertheless, this is always an entertaining contest that hearkens back to the knock-down, drag-out wars of the 1980’s between these clubs.  The Caps dominated the Flyers in the first (and so far only) meeting of the clubs this season, converting two of three power plays and holding the Flyers to 20 shots on their way to a 5-2 win in Philadelphia back in November.  There is little that has happened since to suggest that the gap between these teams has narrowed.

Capitals 5 – Flyers 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 15

Week 15 seems like a long time ago, the Washington Capitals having been missed from competition since last Tuesday due to Winter Storm Jonah and the several feet of snow it left that postponed Friday night’s game against the Anaheim Ducks (and, as it turned out, Sunday’s game against the Pittsburgh Penguins).  It was another successful week, nonetheless, another week in the Caps almost uninterrupted winning momentum.

Record: 2-0-0

Week 15 was the sixth perfect week out of 15 this season for the Caps.  It was the seventh in which they did not lose a game in regulation.  The Caps finished the week 16 points clear of the New York Rangers in the Metropolitan Division and 14 points ahead of the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference.  In defeating two Metropolitan Division rivals in the New York Rangers and the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Caps reached the 11-win mark against divisional opponents.  They finished the week as the only team in the league with double-digit win totals against two different divisions, 16-3-0 against the Atlantic Division and 11-3-1 against the Metropolitan Division.

Offense:  5.50/game (season: 3.33 /game; rank: 1st)

A two-game week is a light week, workload-wise, but an 11-goal week looked a lot like a full week’s worth of output.  With the Caps lighting up the Rangers for five goals and the Blue Jackets for six, the Caps now have 12 games this season in which they scored five or more goals.  They had 13 all of last season (not including Gimmick results).  The Caps lead the league in games with five or more goals scored. 

Individually, the scoring was a bit clustered, but that might be more a function of the 11 goals coming over just two games.  There were guys who were hot.  Six Capitals shared the 11 goals, Justin Williams leading the way with three goals, all of them recorded in a hat trick against the Rangers to start the week. Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Marcus Johansson each had a pair of goals.  Twelve different Caps recorded points for the week, seven of them with multi-point weeks.  Evgeny Kuznetsov led the team with six points, all of them assists, including four in the 6-3 win over Columbus.  Williams finished the week with five points (3-2-5).

Defense: 2.50/game (season: 2.15 /game; rank:1st)

Another week, another week of not allowing more than three goals in a game.  This despite allowing the Rangers 33 shots on goal and the Blue Jackets35 shots on goal.  What looked like a good start to the new calendar year in that regard – opening January with a pair of sub-30 shots against games – has slipped some.  The two games over 30 shots allowed make it five in their last seven in which the Caps have allowed 30 or more shots to opponents.  It was not really much of a score-effect result, either.  The Caps allowed 24 of the Rangers’ 33 shots over the first two periods, after which they held just a 3-2 lead.  They allowed Columbus double-digit shot totals in each of the three periods of the 6-3 win.

If you’re looking at individuals, the Matt Kiskanen/Karl Alzner defensive pair was on ice for three of the five goals against for the week, two of them at 5-on-5, one while shorthanded.  Taylor Chorney and Ryan Stanton were on ice for two goals, both at even strength against Columbus.  Among the forwards, it was Jason Chimera and Tom Wilson on ice for most goals against, with three apiece.

It was not an especially good week, possession-wise.  The Caps were 84 shot attempts to the good, 97 to the bad at 5-on-5, a Corsi-for of 46.4 percent overall.  That was a disappointment after posting a plus-50 percent Corsi-for in each of their previous three games and 55.9 percent overall.  It was not any better in close score situations, where the Caps were 40.7 over the two games (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Goaltending: 2.50 /.926 (season: 2.04 / .929 / 2 shutouts)

As Braden Holtby finished Week 14, so did he start Week 15 – relieved by Philipp Grubauer.  Late in the second period of the Caps 5-2 win over the New York Rangers, Holtby took himself out of the contest with what was later described as symptoms of dehydration.  Grubauer slammed the door in his unplanned stint, stopping all 11 shots he faced in 22 minutes and change of work.

Holtby returned to the ice to face Columbus in the second game of the week, and while he was not quite as sharp as fans have come to expect of him this season, he played well enough to keep the game from ever being in much doubt.  It left him in the unaccustomed position of finishing a week with a personal goals against average over 3.00 (3.07 to be exact) and a sub-.920 save percentage (.912).

For Grubauer it was another case of filling in the gaps in expert fashion.  With his 11-for-11 effort against the Rangers, he is 3-1-0, 1.36, .955 over his last six appearances.

Power Play: 4-for-6 / 66.7 percent (season: 27.1 percent; rank: 1st)

“Cool efficiency “ does not describe the Capitals’ power play in Week 15.  “White-hot efficiency” seems a more apt description.  Four power play goals on just six power play chances in two games.  It was quite an eruption for a team that finished Week 14 with their first consecutive games without a power play goal in the 2016 portion of the season. 

Three Caps divided up the four goals, Alex Ovechkin recording a pair, and Nicklas Backstrom and Marcus Johansson each recording one.  Evgeny Kuznetsov and Matt Niskanen each finished the week with three power play assists.

It is part of an important change in deployment the Caps have used recently, involving the movement of the forward occupying the goal line extended to the goalie’s left to a position at the top of the crease.  The move appears to have created a headache for defensemen trying to decide whether to cheat and lean toward Ovechkin in the left wing circle, or pay sufficient attention to the man at the top of the crease who is in position to redirect a centering pass, precisely what happened on the power play goals by Johansson against the Rangers and Backstrom against the Blue Jackets.  If you factor in that Ovechkin had the other two power play goals, the Caps seem to have given opponents a whole new scenario to give them fits.

It was not an especially efficient week from a shooting perspective, the Caps managing seven shots on goal in 8:31 of power play time (0.82 shots per minute).  But their shots were of such high-quality that it hardly mattered.  The Caps are still at least a step ahead over their opponents in this regard.

Penalty Killing: 6-for-7 / 85.7 percent (season: 84.9 percent; rank: 6th)

It was a pretty good week for the Caps on the penalty kill, posting a mark over 85 percent after dropping under that threshold in Week 14.  It was a very uneven week, though.  Against the Rangers to open the week the Caps did a fine job a man short, holding the Rangers to four shots on four power plays over 7:40 in power play time.  Against the Blue Jackets, the Caps – Braden Holtby, specifically – found themselves in a shooting gallery.  Columbus recorded ten shots on goal (scoring once) in 4:20 of power play ice time (2.30 shots per minute).  Still, it is results that count, at least in the context of a single week, and one goal in seven chances is a decent result.

Faceoffs: 71-for-134 / 53.0 percent (season: 50.2% / rank: 13th)

It was a good week overall in the circle for the Caps, divided into a very good start and a less than good finish.  The Caps dominated the Rangers in the opening game of the week, winning 42 of 71 draws (59.2 percent).  They went just 29 for 63 against the Blue Jackets in the second game of the week.  The Caps were consistent across the zones for the week, winning 53.5 percent of their offensive zone draws, 52.0 percent of faceoffs in the defensive end, and winning 53.7 percent of faceoffs taken in neutral ice.

On an individual level, it was the new guy who impressed most.  Mike Richards won 22 of 34 faceoffs (64.7 percent), going over 50 percent in all three zones.  The surprise was Evgeny Kuznetsov being the only other Capital taking at least ten draws to finish the week over 50 percent, going 16 for 29 (55.2 percent).

Goals by Period:

The Caps won every period and won the week by period.  By the end of the week they remained the only team in the league with double-digit goal differentials in each of the three periods of games, and they enjoyed better than plus-20 goal differentials in the second (plus-21) and third (plus-21) periods of games.

If there was a smudge on the record in Week 15, it was the manner in which the two goals against were scored in the first periods of games.  In both games for the week the Caps allowed the first goal.  The good part of that was that it was the only goal either the Rangers or the Blue Jackets would score in the opening frame.

In the end…

With two wins in Week 15, the Caps reached the 35-win mark.  That ranks 26^th in wins for a season in team history, which might not sound like much, given that this is the Caps’ 41^st season.   But that is after just 46 games.  Their points percentage (.793) is unmatched in club history, not even by the 2009-2010 Presidents Trophy winners that posted a 54-15-13 mark for 121 points (.738 points percentage.  This club is on a pace to finish with 130 points.

Will they finish with such an impressive total of standings points?  Who knows?  Injuries, slumps, the odd snow storm could pierce the momentum the Caps established and sustained over the first 46 games of the season, but one reason that they have been able to sustain that momentum is that they show no inclination but to take each game – each week – at a time.  Week 15 was an example of that.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Justin Williams (3-2-5, plus-5, eight shot attempts, six shots on goal
• Second Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (0-6-6, 55.2 percent faceoffs)
• Third Star: Matt Niskanen (0-3-3, plus-1, 11 shot attempts, eight shots on goal, almost 27 minutes average ice time)