Washington Capitals: 2015-2016 By the Tens -- Forwards: Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson

“There are no shortcuts in evolution.“

-- Louis D. Brandeis

When Tom Wilson wrapped up his 2014-2015 season, he had amassed 323 penalty minutes in 149 career regular season games.  That was almost four times as many as the next highest total among players in his 2012 draft class (Jacob Trouba with 89 minutes in 130 games), and it was the third highest total of any player over the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 seasons.  Only three players were charged with more fighting majors than Wilson (26) over those two years – Cody McLeod (31), Brandon Prust (27), and Derek Dorsett (27). 

What made Tom Wilson the outlier in that group of frequent fighters is that Prust was a third round draft pick (70^th overall in 2004), Dorsett was a seventh round pick (189^th overall in 2006), and McLeod was an undrafted free agent.  Wilson, as Caps fans know, was a first round pick in the 2012 draft, taken 16^th overall, ahead of such players as Tomas Hertl, Teuvo Teravainen, and Tanner Pearson, who combined have a penalty minute total in their careers (108 in 461 games) that is less than a fourth of the total recorded by Wilson through this past season (486 in 231 games) but who have 96 combined career goals scored to 14 for Wilson.

Which brings us to this season.

After two seasons learning his craft in the NHL it would not be a stretch to think Wilson would occupy the right side of the third line, especially since the Caps secured the services of T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams in the offseason to provide right-side scoring punch on the top two lines.  Surely he would be getting more than the nine and a half minutes a game he averaged over his first two seasons.  And with the increased ice time, one might have expected his offensive numbers to improve as well, perhaps putting the feisty phase of his early career to, if not rest, than at least dormancy.

If slow and steady wins the race, then Wilson is in good position at this point in his career.  He finished with seven goals in 82 games, matching his career total over 149 games in the previous two seasons.  He had 16 assists, eclipsing the 13 he had in 2014-2015 (although that was in just 67 games).  His 23 points marked steady progression, from 10 in his rookie year to 17 last season to 23 in 2015-2016.

His ice time showed progress, too.  He averaged 7:56 per game in his rookie season, followed by 10:56 last season.  This season he averaged 12:55 per game.  Almost all of the increase was a product of the added responsibility of penalty killing, for which he averaged 1:35 a game after getting a total of 49 seconds of shorthanded ice time over his first two seasons.  He was fourth among forwards finishing the season with the Caps in average shorthanded ice time per game.

Fearless’ Take… Feisty isn’t necessarily a bad thing on one respect.  The Caps were 8-2-3 in games in which Wilson recorded five or more penalty minutes.  But ice time was something one might want to think about in terms of Wilson’s future.  The Caps were 18-4-2 in games in which he recorded 14 or more minutes of ice time.  Some of that might be score effects (getting more ice time in games in which the Caps had a lead), but then again, they were just 4-3-1 in games in which Wilson had less than 10 minutes of ice time.

Cheerless’ Take… Hey cuz, feisty isn’t necessarily good, neither.  The Caps were 32-10-1 in games in which he didn’t record a penalty minute.  And his possession numbers…woof.  He was 46.5 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (down from 52.6 last season), and his Corsi-for/Relative was minus-5.9 (down from plus-1.7 last year).  That minus-5.9 Corsi-for/Relative was worst on the team, by far, for players with at least 200 minutes at 5-on-5 (numbers from war-on-ice.com)

Odd Wilson Fact… Only two players in the NHL have at least 50 points and at least 400 minutes in penalties over the last three seasons – Antoine Roussel and Tom Wilson.  Wilson did it in more than 900 fewer minutes (3,350 minutes for Roussel, 2,443 for Wilson).

Game to Remember… February 9^th versus Nashville.

Winning in Nashville has not been the easiest thing for the Caps to do.  In 11 games in the history of the series coming into this season, the Caps were 4-5-2 (including one tie) in Tennessee, including losses in each of their last three visits.  The Caps got off to a good start against the Predators in their February contest, though, due in no small part to Tom Wilson.  It was Wilson with just over 12 minutes gone in the contest setting up Jason Chimera for the game’s first goal, getting a passing angle around Roman Josi at the right wing boards, then threading a pass to Chimera at the far post to slip the puck past goalie Pekka Rinne.  With the clock approaching the five-minute mark of the second period Wilson did his best imitation of Alex Ovechkin.  With Marcus Johansson skating down the right wing side, Wilson set up in the left wing faceoff circle.  A cross-ice pass from Johansson was turned into a one-timer that beat Rinne to make it 2-0.  The Caps went on to win the game, 5-3, their first win in Nashville since December 2013.  For Wilson, it was one of four two-point games on the season, but he also added three hits and won two of three faceoffs while going plus-2 in 15:55 of playing time, his fourth-most ice time total on the road all season.

Game to Forget… April 7^th versus Pittsburgh

When the other guys score a goal ten seconds into your first shift, 44 seconds into the game, it’s not likely to be a good night.  The trouble for Tom Wilson was, it got worse.  Pittsburgh scored again, a shorthanded goal 28 seconds into the second period, to make it 2-0.  Then, two minutes later, Wilson was on the ice for this…

Five minute major for boarding.  He had three more shifts after that and eight for the game.  The eight shifts and 5:50 in ice time both were season lows.  And, in a game in which the Caps would end up coming from out of an 0-3 hole to tie the game (only to lose in overtime, 4-3), Wilson would have no other marks on his score sheet – no hits (the boarding notwithstanding), no blocked shots, no takeaways, no shot attempts.

Postseason: 12 games, 0-1-1, minus-3, 44.4 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5, minus-5.8 CF%/Relative 5-on-5

Tell us if you’ve read this before… the Caps didn’t get much from their bottom nine in the postseason, especially against the Pittsburgh Penguins in the second round.  Tom Wilson certainly was not immune from that plague.  He went his first nine games of the postseason without a point and recorded a total of eight shots on goal in 12 games.  Only two of those shots on goal came in six games against Pittsburgh in the second round.  It was not necessarily for a lack of ice time; he averaged just over 12 minutes per game (12:55 in the regular season).  Let us hope this was a learning experience.

In the end…

Tom Wilson is a 16^th overall draft pick, and frankly, his numbers look like a 16^th overall draft pick.  In his 2012 draft class he ranks 16^th in goals, 12^th in assists, 12^th in points, tied for 13^th in plus-minus.  On the other hand, he’s done that while ranking fifth in games played, so it is also reasonable to say that he has underperformed his selection slot on a production per game basis.  On the other hand (three hands?), Wilson celebrated his 22^nd birthday in late March.  He is still a developing player.

And it is not just development as an offensive player or as a defensive specialist that Caps fans are witnessing with Wilson.  He is in the midst of an evolution from being a player whose mark is made with mayhem and playing a bit outside the rules to one of being productive in ways much friendlier to the rule book.  It is not the comparatively easier process of just getting better in one facet of the game.  It is a matter of style and diversity of skill.  It is not likely to be either easy or quick.  But as Justice Brandeis said, “there are no shortcuts in evolution.“

Grade: B-

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2015-2016 By the Tens -- Forwards: Justin Williams

Justin Williams

“If you think it's expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur.”

-- Red Adair

After the Washington Capitals were eliminated from the postseason in May 2015, general manager Brian MacLellan looked at his situation at right wing, and you had the feeling that he was not excited about his in-house options in the short term: 

“[A right winger is] on the shopping list.  I think it’d be a priority for us if we could find a guy who could play there. I don’t know if the UFA market’s going to provide that for us. We’ll see what happens in the trade market here coming up, see if we can find that. Otherwise we’re going to have to develop a guy.”

As it turned out, there was a newly minted free agent right wing who just wrapped up his seventh season with the Los Angeles Kings, two of them ending in Stanley Cup victories to add to the one he won in Carolina with the Hurricanes in 2006.  And when the unrestricted free agent signing period opened on July 1st, the Capitals signed him – Justin Williams had a two-year, $6.5 million contract.

In Williams, the Capitals now had an almost legendary performer in precisely the situations that had so confounded and disappointed Capitals Nation for decades – coming through in the clutch in Game 7’s of a postseason series.  What better tonic could there be for a franchise eliminated in Game 7’s in each of their three most recent playoff appearances and in six of their last seven trips to the postseason than a player whose teams had a 7-0 record in Game 7’s in which he appeared, who had seven goals in those seven games (tied for most in league history with Glenn Anderson), and whose 14 points in Game 7’s was best in league history?

In terms of his regular season with the Caps, Williams top-end numbers (22-30-52, plus-15, in 82 games) were almost an overlay of his career numbers per 82 games coming into this season (20-32-52, plus-8).  The 22 goals he recorded is the most he scored in a single season since he had 33 with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006-2007.  The 52 points was his highest total since 2011-2012 with the Kings (59 points).  He had three game winning goals, a number he had not exceeded since he had eight in that 2006-2007 season in Carolina.

Williams improved in just about every major statistical category from his final year in Los Angeles.  He improved by four in goal scoring, by seven in assists, 11 in points, seven points in plus-minus, and he recorded 27 more shots on goal this season than he did last year with the Kings.  Only in power play scoring did his numbers drop (down one goal and three assists from last season), a product of the fact that he averaged a minute less per game than T.J. Oshie, who played the same position in the Caps’ power play scheme.

Fearless’ Take… What our esteemed cousin has pointed out with other players applies to Williams, too.  His goal scoring mattered.  The Caps were 17-2-0 in games in which he scored a goal.  They were 31-5-4 in games in which he scored a point.  His ten-game splits reflect a remarkable consistency in goal scoring, as well.  In six of the eight segments Williams recorded two or three goals.

Cheerless’ Take… Those ten game splits have another thing about them that doesn’t look so good.  Look at the last four…11 points, seven points, six, four.  And the plus-minus… plus-8, plus-4, minus-1, minus-5.  That’s not exactly the direction you want to see those numbers go as time passes by.  Points and plus-minus is influenced by teammates to a degree, but still.  Not good.

Odd Willams Fact… Justin Williams scored more than a quarter of his goals this season against the New York Rangers (six), and that number increased his number of goals scored against the Rangers by 67 percent over the total he recorded in the first 28 games he played against the Blueshirts over his career coming into this season (nine).  If only he had been a Capital last season.

Game to Remember… December 8^th versus Detroit

Going into their December 8^th contest with the Detroit Red Wings, the Caps sat in second place in the Metropolitan Division, one point behind the New York Rangers.  It was a bit early in the season to think it an urgent matter to put the Rangers in the rear-view mirrors, but it’s never a bad thing to jump ahead of a rival in the standings, either.  And the Caps got off to a good start on that objective in their contest against the Red Wings.  Less than a minute into the game, Marcus Johansson managed to keep a sliding puck in the offensive zone and fed it to Evgeny Kuznetsov coming down the right side.  Kuznetsov worked his way in deep and tried to stuff the puck past goalie Jimmy Howard, but it ended up off on Howard’s right.  Justin Williams was in perfect position, even if on his knees, to poke the puck past Howard’s right pad and under his stick to give the Caps the early lead just 43 seconds into the contest.  For Williams it was his 600th NHL point, one of 37 active players to have reached that milestone.  And, with the win, the Capitals took over the Metropolitan Division lead from the New York Rangers, a lead they would not relinquish for the remainder of the season.

Game to Forget… December 31^st versus Carolina

Although Justin Williams had not worn a Carolina Hurricanes uniform since 2009, any time a player faces a former team, his juices get flowing a bit faster.  On New Year’s Eve, the Caps took a nine-game winning streak to Raleigh to face the Hurricanes.  The teams fought to a scoreless tie in the first period, and the teams exchanged goals in the second period.  The Hurricanes broke on top, though, with a pair of goals just over four minutes apart to start the third period.  The Caps got one back courtesy of Alex Ovechkin, but it was as close as the Caps could get, Andrej Nestrasil adding an empty net goal in a 4-2 Carolina win to snap the Caps’ winning streak.  Williams, who had three goals and three assists in the nine-game winning streak, was held without a point and did not have a shot on goal in 12:51 of playing time.  It was his second lowest ice time total for the season.  His lowest – 12:43 on October 17^th in Game 4 of the season – also came against Carolina.

Postseason: 12 games, 3-4-7, minus-3, 49.7 Corsi-for at 5-on-5, minus-3.1 CF%/Relative 5-on-5

Coming into this season, Justin Williams could have been the poster boy for fancy stats.  In ten seasons since the 2004-2005 lockout, he never had a Corsi-for value at 5-on-5 for a season of less than 51.8, and that came in the 2005-2006 season right out of the lockout.  Twice he finished a season over 60 percent (2012-2013 and 2013-2014 with the Kings).  In ten seasons before this, his Corsi-for/Relative at fives was never below a plus-2.6.  In his first season with the Caps those numbers were 53.4 percent and plus-3.3.

So what happened in the playoffs?  His Corsi-for of 49.7 percent was his second worst in seven postseason appearances, and his minus-3.1 Corsi-for/Relative was the worst of his career, the only time he finished in minus territory.  And as it was for many Capitals forwards, it was like looking at two different players or seasons.  Against the Philadelphia Flyers in the first round, his Corsi-for at 5-on-5 was 57.3 percent, although even there the signs were ominous.  His Corsi-for/Relative was in plus territory in Games 1-3, but he was underwater in each of Games 4-6.  In the second round against the Pittsburgh Penguins, his overall number plunged to 43.1 percent, and he was in minus territory on his Corsi-for/Relative in four of the six games.

In the end…

Justin Williams provided a stable, reliable presence on the right wing in the regular season, part of the effort on the part of general manager Brian MacLellan to ensure precisely that in his off-season personnel moves.  But there was an additional aspect of his game that the Caps sorely needed – his ability to step up in big games, to provide the kind of performance the Caps needed to get over the hump of early playoff round losses. 

If you look at Williams’ postseason resume overall, it is good, but not especially impressive.  Since the 2004-2005 lockout he is tied for 26^th in postseason games played (110), 14^th in goals scored (32), tied for 16^th in assists (47), tied for 17^th in points, tied for 15^th in game-winning goals.  In that scoring sense, he over-performed relative to the number of games he played.  But it was that ability to perform when the stakes were highest – Game 7’s – that was to be the remedy for the Caps’ playoff ills.  Unfortunately, the Caps failed to reach a Game 7 in the second round against the Pittsburgh Penguins, losing that matchup in six games.  We will have to wait another year to see if the legend lives on, and the Caps can rid themselves of their postseason curse.

Grade: B

Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2015-2016 By the Tens -- Forwards: Mike Richards

Mike Richards

“The long and winding road that leads to your door

Will never disappear.

I've seen that road before it always leads me here;

Leads me to your door.”

-- Paul McCartney

Maybe it was the day.  The 13th.  On December 13, 2007, Mike Richards signed at 12-year, $69 million contract with the Philadelphia Flyers.  At the time he said, "I want to be here, I love the city, I love the organization and when I was given the opportunity I was excited to be here over the next twelve years."  Less than five years later, he was gone, traded to the Los Angeles Kings with Rob Bordson in June 2011 for Brayden Schenn, Wayne Simmonds and a second-round draft pick in the 2012 Entry Draft.

It was the start of a literal and figurative journey for Richards that had its high points – two Stanley Cups with the Kings – and its lows.  It did not get any lower for Richards than what happened in June 2015 and the weeks that followed.  Stopped at the U.S.-Canada border for alleged possession of a controlled substance, having his contract terminated by the Kings, charged by authorities in Canada, the Kings and the NHL Players Association coming to agreement on a settlement in which Richards would receive roughly half of the remaining value of his contract, playing hockey was not on the program for Richards. 

As the end game of this low drama was playing out, though, theCapitals were pondering whether to act on their interest in Richards.  After a long dance that lasted from October to early January, the Capitals signed Richards to a one-year pro-rated $1 million contract.  Ten days later, 282 days after he last stepped on an NHL rink for a game, he was in the Caps’ lineup.

It would make for a happy story to say that Richards returned to the NHL and was successful in resuming his career, but to be charitable the jury is still out on that question.  Richards appeared in 39 regular season games for the Caps, not missing a contest once he joined the lineup, perhaps more a testimony to his desire to get back into the game than his stamina.  In fact, he was a shell of his former self.  In those 39 games he managed just two goals and five points while averaging just over 12 minutes of ice time a game, primarily as a fourth liner, the lowest average ice time of his 11-year career.

Fearless’ Take… Richards’ numbers were poor, there is no denying that.  But he did provide some value.  He was 50 percent or better on faceoffs in 21 of the 39 games in which he played.  The Caps won all five games in which he recorded a point.  They only lost one game in regulation in which he logged at least 13 minutes of ice time.  His Corsi-for at 5-on-5 was a respectable 51.78, and his Corsi-for/Relative of minus-0.12 was hardly poor for a fourth liner.  He even showed signs of contributing more offense in the latter stages of the season.  Three points in his last ten-game segment (actually 12 games) is a modest total, but it was the best of his four ten-game segments.

Cheerless’ Take… You’re diggin’ pretty deep to find a gold nugget there, cuz.  He had five points in 39 games.  The guy he pretty much replaced – Mickael Latta – had seven points in 43 games.  Richards was a minus-2, Latta was even.  Richards had a 49.5 percent faceoff winning percentage on 475 faceoffs, Latta was 51.5 percent on 198 draws.  Richards had a score-adjusted Corsi-for at 5-on-5 of 51.77, Latta had a 52.62.  If you didn’t know who they were, who would you have said was more productive?

Odd Richards Fact… The Caps were 6-6-0 in games in which Richards’ Corsi-for at 5-on-5 was 60.0 percent or better; they were 9-1-3 in games where he was 40.0 percent or worse (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Game to Remember… February 22^nd versus Arizona

February was a good month over its first three weeks for the Caps, who built an 8-2-0 record through the 21^st.  On the 22^nd the Caps hosted the Arizona Coyotes, a team not having much success of their own in February with a 3-5-1 record heading into their game against the Caps.  After a scoreless first period, the Coyotes broke on top with a Kevin Connauton goal early in the second period.  The Caps tied the game on a power play goal by Evgeny Kuznetsov less than three minutes after the Connauton strike, then took a lead mid-way through the third period on a goal by Alex Ovechkin.  The sound of the goal horn had barely faded away when the Caps struck again.  It started with a Tom Wilson drive from the right wing circle than was flagged down by goalie Louis Domingue.  However, Domingue’s attempt to smother the puck with his glove was stifled by teammate Brad Richardson, who came it to try to move the puck away from danger.  That gave Wilson a chance to follow up his own shot, and he poked the puck free of both Domingue and Richardson.  Mike Richards curled in behind Wilson to get to the loose puck and whip it past Domingue’s glove to make it a 3-1 lead for the Caps and set Domingue off in search of an official to complain to that he covered the puck.  When Connor Murphy scored later in the period for the Coyotes, Richards’ goal was not only his first as a Capital but the game-winning goal as well, his first game-winning goal since recording one with the Kings in a 4-0 win over the Minnesota Wild on November 26, 2014.

Game to Forget… April 5^th versus New York Islanders

By this time in the season, everyone associated with the Capitals might have been forgiven for just wanting the last couple weeks’ worth of games over and done with so that they could get on to the playoffs.  At times, it showed.  It did for the Caps in Game 79 of the season when they hosted the New York Islanders.  The Caps scored first, a goal by Alex Ovechkin less than five minutes into the game, and scored often, getting out to a 3-1 lead early in the third period.  By that time, Mike Richards had been an infrequent participant in the game, logging only 6:23 in ice time.  Then, it got worse, both for him and the Caps.  The Islanders scored goals 1:45 apart mid-way through the period to tie the game, then won it 2:13 into overtime.  Over the last 15:17 of the game, including overtime, Richards skated just one 28-second shift.  Oddly enough, he led the Caps’ forwards in shorthanded ice time in the game (51 seconds), but finished the game with just 6:00 in even strength ice time.  His total of 6:51 was a season low, and adding just one shot on goal while going minus-1 didn’t help matters.

Postseason: 12 games, 0-0-0, even, 49.5 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5, minus-2.9 CF%/Relative

Mike Richards has had an odd history as a playoff performer.  Coming into this season he was 26-61-87 in 124 career postseason games.  That is a rather respectable 17-39-56 scoring pace per 82 games.  After the 2016 postseason, Richards how has 136 games on his resume, but the scoring needle didn’t budge.  No points in 12 games.  And that raises the other, odd aspect of his postseason career.  He has never been that much of a possession guy.  That might owe itself to tough defensive assignments, but the fact is that in eight seasons of postseason appearances, Richards was above 50 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 just twice.  He did not make it three times, going 49.5 percent for the Caps in what was actually his third-best result in his career.  His “relative” numbers have been even worse over his career, finishing in minus territory in each of his eight previous playoff appearances.  In 2016 that number grew to nine (minus-2.9; numbers from war-on-ice.com). 

What made this year a bit different for Richards on that score was the nature of the responsibility he had and how it was reflected in the playing context.  He is, at this stage of his career it would seem, primarily a defensive forward, and this was reflected in his numbers (perhaps influenced by the quality of opposition faced).  The 57.9 shot attempts against per 60 minutes on ice at 5-on-5 was the second-lowest of his postseason career.  And, in one more odd twist, the 56.7 shot attempts for on ice per 60 minutes was the second highest of his career.  Overall, though, he was one of several Caps among the bottom nine forwards whose offensive contributions were negligible.

In the end…

Perhaps if Richards did not make his debut until mid-season.  Perhaps if he had a full training camp to get back into a hockey frame of mind after all of the issues he had to deal with off the ice.  Then again, without those events and that timeline, he very well would not have been a Capital.  In the obvious indices of production, Richards was not so much a disappointment (given his circumstances) as he was unable to effect a “happy ending” sort of story. 

From Philadelphia to Los Angeles to personal difficulties to a return to hockey, the road Richards has traveled over the past five years has certainly been a winding one.  What is not known is where that road now leads.  Richards is a free agent.  Perhaps with that full training camp and a chance to put his difficulties further behind him, he would be an asset to the Caps going forward.  Or, perhaps the wear and tear on a body that often played bigger than it is and his time away from the game have robbed him of whatever edge he could coax out of himself on the ice.  As Mike Richards heads into an offseason as a free agent, he is unlikely to be among the most sought after players, but the journey he takes will be among the most interesting to follow.

Grade: C

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2015-2016 By the Tens -- Forwards: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin

“I’m the straw that stirs the drink.”

-- Reggie Jackson

The 2015-2016 season was the first season of the rest of Alex Ovechkin’s career, his first as a 30-year old.  In ten seasons with the Washington Capitals coming into this season, he established himself as the pre-eminent goal scorer of his generation, and on a very short list of top all time goal scorers in NHL history.  On a personal level, he had little left to accomplish, and in that sense he entered a phase of his career in which he is no longer competing with the rest of the NHL.  He is now competing against history and the potential narrative that accompanies it. 

“Alex Ovechkin, the greatest hockey player never to win a Stanley Cup.”

It really is the only thing left in his NHL career worth accomplishing; he’s done the rest.  And the 2015-2016 season provided what might have been the best opportunity for him to sponge away any suggestion that the quote above would follow him into retirement.  He had a year of experience under head coach Barry Trotz, a coach of sufficient stature and accomplishment to bring out other aspects of Ovechkin’s game without suppressing others, of getting him to “buy in” to a philosophy that required more appreciation for the 200-foot game.

Ovechkin also had the benefit of the work of General Manager Brian MacLellan, who addressed specific needs in two offseasons of work, bringing in defensemen Matt Niskanen and Brooks Orpik in 2014 to shore up the defense, and then bringing in T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams in 2015 to bolster the right wing.  The 2015-2016 team was arguably the deepest, most balanced, and best on which Ovechkin would play in his 11 seasons to date.  The captain had a squad that could compete with the best in the league.  And then…

…he slept in.

Ovechkin set his alarm clock incorrectly and missed a morning skate before Game 2 of the season against the San Jose Sharks.  He was not spared the sanction that team rules required and was a healthy scratch for the game, one that the Caps lost, 5-0. 

But in addition to gray hair, turning 30 means something else – the maturity to take your punishment and move on without sulking over it.  The suspension was not so much as a speed bump to Ovechkin at the start of the season.  He scored goals in each of the first five games in which he played and in eight of his first 12.  He was held without a point in just one of those first dozen games (8-8-16 overall), that game coming against (who else) the Pittsburgh Penguins.

It is worth noting that in those first dozen games, Ovechkin was 7-7-14 at even strength.  In his next 21 games he was 3-3-6 at evens.  It would not be an isolated instance of low scoring at even strength for Ovechkin.  From February 24^th through April 2^nd, a span of 20 games, he was 2-4-6 at even strength.  He had just 16 even strength assists for the season, and only nine of them came in his last 67 games.

These things are relative, though.  Ovechkin did lead the league in even strength goals.  In fact, his 31 even strength goals would have ranked 17^th in total goals in the league.  As it was, his total of 50 goals led the league, again.  This season was the fourth straight time Ovechkin led the league in goals and sixth time in the last nine seasons.  It was the fourth straight time that Ovechkin led the league in power play goals (19), fifth time in the last nine years.  Since he came into the league, his 525 goals is 164 more than the second highest goal scorer, Jarome Iginla was 361. Put another way, Ovechkin could have sat out the last three seasons (over which he scored 154 goals), and he would still be the leading goal scorer of the post-2004-2005 lockout era.

Fearless’ Take… Ovechkin scoring matters.  The Caps won 39 of 49 games in which he recorded a point (39-7-3), they split 26 games in which he played and did not record a point (13-8-5).  Then there is the matter of his “playing the right way.”  A persistent narrative about Ovechkin is that he doesn’t care about defense.  This season might not have earned him a Selke nomination as the league’s best defensive forward, but his being on ice for 0.62 goals against per game tied his lowest such number in his career (set in 2010-2011).  Then there is the matter of “playing the right way” in terms of possession.  Since he came into the league in 2005-2006, he ranks 95^th among 756 forwards with at least 1,000 even strength minutes in score-adjusted Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (53.29 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com).  He out-performed that number this season, posting a 54.3 percent score-adjusted value, the fourth-highest of his career and best since 2009-2010 (58.5).  

Cheerless’ Take… I was looking at that table of tens up above.  It looks kind of strange.  The first and last segments look really nice as far as the shot attempts and scoring chances go.  But the six in the middle don't have the same shine to them.  The weird part is that it doesn't seem to bear much of a relation to his putting up goals and points, but there has at least a look of coasting there in the middle of the season.  With this team, maybe he and the Caps could afford it, or maybe it was something of a blessing, not having to bury the needle on the effort needle in January or February.  But it still looks sort of weird.

Odd Ovechkin Fact… Alex Ovechkin takes a lot of shots.  He led the league in shots on goal in ten of his 11 seasons, including the one just completed (Evgeni Malkin was the only interruption, that in 2011-2012).  He is the only player over the last 11 seasons with a total of more than 4,000 shots on goal (4,228).  No other player has as many as 3,000 (Eric Staal has 2,909).  Some would argue that is a bit greedy, evidence of being a puck hog.  However, the Caps were 21-3-3 in games in which Ovechkin recorded more than five shots, 4-1-0 in games in which he had more than ten shots on goal.

Game to Remember… January 10^th versus Ottawa

The suspense about whether the Capitals would make the playoffs had pretty much worn off by the time the new year started.  They finished the 2015 portion of the season with a 28-7-2 record and had won three of four games in the new year as the Ottawa Senators came to town on January 10^th.  What suspense there was stemmed from what happened in the Caps previous game, a 4-3 overtime win over the New York Rangers in which the game-winning goal was scored by Alex Ovechkin on an end-to-end rush after goalie Philipp Grubauer made a great save on Derek Stepan to keep play going…

The goal was Ovechkin’s 499^th, putting him on the brink of becoming the 43^rd player in NHL history to record 500 goals.  The Caps ended the competitive portion of the contest with the Senators early in the second period when Dmitry Orlov scored to put the Caps ahead, 4-1.  Late in the period, though, Ottawa’s Mark Stone was sent to the penalty box on a tripping call.  It was time to go to work and for Ovechkin to head to his office in the left wing circle…

Ovechkin added another goal in the Caps’ 7-1 win and finished the season with 525 career goals, 33^rd in league history.  He and Mike Bossy are the only players in the 43-member 500-goal club who have more than 500 goals in fewer than 900 career games.

Game to Forget… November 19^th versus Dallas

It was not so much a game to forget as it might have been one that could have ended in a happier memory.  A hot start by Alex Ovechkin had him 8-8-16 after 12 games, the eight goals lifting him into a tie with Sergei Federov as the top Russina-born goal scorer in NHL history at 483 goals.  He stalled at that point, going four games without a point, the Caps splitting the four decisions.  That brought the Caps and Ovechkin to Game 17 on the schedule, a home contest against the Dallas Stars, a team with the best record in the league at the time (15-4-0).  The team exchanged goals in the first period, but Cody Eakin put the Stars ahead early in the third.  With the period almost seven minutes old, Ovechkin secured the puck just inside the Stars’ blue line and tried to find T.J. Oshie for a deflection try.  Oshie could not tip the puck past goalie Kari Lehtonen, but he was able to recover it in the corner to Lehtonen’s right.  Oshie threw the puck in front where it was redirected to Nicklas Backstrom closing on the far post.  Backstrom slid a backhand pass to Ovechkin skating hard to the post on the other side, and Ovechkin had a tap-in to break the record and tie the game.  After having two goals disallowed in earlier games that would have enabled him to set the record sooner, there was no doubt about this one…

The Caps could not get that next goal to break on top, though.  With less than nine minutes left, Jason Spezza pilfered a pass from in front of the Caps’ net and converted the gift into the game-winning goal in a 3-2 Stars win.  Alex Ovechkin had the goal scoring record, but the Caps lost the only game they would lose at home in regulation in the regular season when Ovechkin recorded a goal.

Postseason… 12 games, 5-7-12, plus-3, 57.5 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5, plus-8.4 CF%/Relative

Alex Ovechkin has not made a career saving his best for last in terms of individual seasons.  Since going 11-10-21, plus-10 in the 2009-2010 postseason, he never exceeded ten points in any single postseason, going 21-19-40, minus-3, in 51 games.  He was a “minus” player in his last four trips to the playoffs.  Not that he was the problem, but his performance was not enough to drag the rest of an underperforming roster out of the second round in the three instances in which the Caps reached that round in the last five years.  This year, he, T.J. Oshie, and John Carlson were arguably the best players on the ice on a consistent basis through the postseason. 

Ovechkin had points in seven of his last 11 games of the 2016 playoffs, but it was a reflection of just how little support he was getting below the first line and from among defensemen not named “John Carlson” that the Caps went 1-4 in the games in which he did not record a point in the playoffs.  He was certainly consistent enough in the two series as well, going 3-2-5, plus-1 against the Philadelphia Flyers in the first round, then going 2-5-7, plus-2 in the second round against the Pittsburgh Penguins.  But in the last four games against the Penguins, three of which the Caps lost, two of them in overtime, Ovechkin went 2-4-6.  There just were not enough contributions from elsewhere on the roster.

In the end…

When Ovechkin shot, the Caps won.  When he scored, the Caps won.  And the odd part of that was that such production bore no relation to ice time.  The Caps were 27-12-5 in games in which he had more than 20 minutes, 29-3-3 in games in which he skated less than 20 minutes.  You might explain that as the team not needing heavy ice time loads in wins. 

But once again, it was all for naught.  For the eighth time in his career, Ovechkin did not play a game in the conference finals in the postseason.  On one level, he is still performing at a level that is historic in its production, a gift to Caps fans that might not be appreciated as much as it should.  But on a deeper level, Alex Ovechkin really has little else to accomplish.  Sure, in good health he will continue to post goal totals no one in this era is likely to approach, and he will climb the all-time rankings.  But having passed the age of 30 he is playing against history, racing against it in fact.  There remains only one thing left to accomplish to cement his place among the very best ever to play in the National Hockey League.  He has been and remains the straw the stirs the drink in Washington.  Now, if only that drink could quench his – and Caps fans – thirst for the elusive Stanley Cup.

Grade: A-

Photo: Drew Hallowell/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2015-2016 By the Tens -- Forwards: T.J. Oshie

T.J. Oshie

“Every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end.”

-- Seneca

For 11 years, from the time he was drafted until the end of the 2014-2015 season, the St. Louis Blues was the only NHL organization that T.J. Oshie ever knew.  He played seven seasons with the Blues, appearing in 443 regular season and 30 postseason games.  Those 30 postseason games with the Blues apparently were an issue.  Five times Oshie went to the postseason with the Blues, and five times the Blues – and perhaps Oshie – underperformed.  He was 5-4-9, minus-12, in those 30 postseason games, and his Blues won just one playoff series, that in 2012.

Meanwhile, in Washington, the Capitals had their own forward with iffy postseason success on a team that experienced too little of it.  Troy Brouwer went to the postseason three times with the Caps, and in 35 games he had just three goals and nine points.  His Caps won two postseason series but never advanced to a conference final.

Two players with similar lack of success in the spring.  It was a trade begging to be made, and so it was last July, Brouwer sent to the Blues along with goaltending prospect Pheonix Copley and a third-round draft pick for Oshie.  It was something of a rejuvenation for Oshie.  In his first year with the Caps he set a career high in goals scored (26), scored more many power play goals (11) than he did in his previous three seasons combined, set a personal best in shooting percentage (14.1 percent), and he became something of a faceoff go-to guy (52.7 percent on 262 draws taken, tops in both for his career).

As you might expect for a first line winger, his scoring mattered.  In 23 games in which he scored a goal (he had three multi-goal games), the Caps were 18-2-3.  They were 27-4-4 in games in which he recorded a point.

Oshie’s ten-game segments were all over the place, lacking in consistency from segment to segment and in different categories moving in the same direction.  He started and finished well with a first and eighth ten-game segment characterized by high point totals (15 of his 51 points were recorded in those segments), and his Corsi numbers (plus-81 at 5-on-5) and scoring chance differential (plus-55) were recorded in those segments.  In between, though?  Take the fourth segment.  In it, he recorded eight points on four goals and four assists, one of his best ten-game segments of the season, but his Corsi-for at 5-on-5 was his worst of the season (minus-38), as was his scoring chance differential (minus-15).  It all seemed to “even out” in the end, so to speak – good goal and point totals, solid positives in the Corsi and scoring chance numbers at fives – but how he got there was an interesting journey.

Fearless’ Take… T.J. Oshie played bigger than his program information would suggest.  At 5’11, 189, you would not think him as a particularly physical player.  However, consider that Oshie, Alex Ovechkin, and Jason Chimera were the only Capitals to finish the regular season with 20 or more goals and at least 100 credited hits, and among forwards appearing in at least 20 games, Oshie finished third in hits per game overall (1.7), behind Alex Ovechkin (2.8) and Tom Wilson (3.1).  He didn’t seem bashful about going to the net, either.  He was third on the team in high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5 (70), behind Justin Williams (84) and Alex Ovechkin (83; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Cheerless’ Take… T.J. Oshie had fewer primary assists at 5-on-5 (9) than Tom Wilson (11), and Wilson had almost three fewer minutes of ice time per game at 5-on-5 than Oshie.  Now, I’m not the sharpest knife in the barn, but wouldn’t you think a top line forward would have more primary assists than a third/fourth line forward?  Even if he’s skating with Nicklas Backstrom a lot of the time?

Odd Oshie Fact… “Oshie After Dark.”  T.J. Oshie did not record a point in five regular season day games, which was perhaps a bit odd given that coming into this season he was 3-17-20 in 30 day games with St. Louis.

Game to Remember… December 18th versus Tampa Bay

The Caps were on a roll, 11-1-1 in 13 games leading up to their December 18th battle with the Tampa Bay Lightning at Verizon Center.  Not that the Lightning were playing poorly; they were 5-2-0 in December leading up to that game.  As it turned out, the game was really two games in one.  Tampa Bay won the first 30 minutes, running out to a 3-0 lead and chasing starting goaltender Braden Holtby.  The Caps had the Lightning right where they wanted them.  Alex Ovechkin scored a power play goal on a slick feed feed from T.J. Oshie, who collected a loose puck in front and spun a back pass to Ovechkin at the 13:49 mark of the second period to make it 3-1.  In the third period, Oshie collected a loose puck along the wall in his own end, sped up ice past Braydon Coburn, and snapped a shot past goalie Ben Bishop to make it 3-2 just 7:54 into the period.  After Ovechkin tied the game on a power play goal two minutes later, Oshie recorded another primary assist, taking a feed from Ovechkin and sliding the puck to Marcus Johansson on the right side for a one-timer to give the Caps a 4-3 lead with less than five minutes left in regulation.  Oshie potted an empty net goal with 25.0 seconds left to give the Caps a 5-3 win.  It was Oshie’s third four-point game of his career and first as a Capital.

Game to Forget… April 2nd versus Arizona

It was not a formula for getting up for a game.  Late in the season, the Caps’ regular season fate sealed, wrapping up a three-game road trip 2,500 miles away from home against an opponent against whom you have little by way of rivalry.  That was the Caps in Arizona to face the Coyotes in an utterly meaningless game.  It showed.  The Caps allowed three third period goals in what would be a 3-0 loss.  For his part, Oshie skated 14:50, had one shot on goal, won a faceoff, was a minus-1, had one scoring chance, and otherwise had as quiet a game, as did his teammates.

Postseason: 12 games, 6-4-10, plus-2, 54.7% Corsi-for at 5-on-5, plus-4.1 CF%/Relative

On a purely personal level, T.J. Oshie enjoyed his best postseason in six trips to the playoffs.  He played 12 games, most in any single postseason of his career, had six goals (another career best), four assists (another career high), 10 points (yes…a career best), was plus-2 (first time he was a plus player in six postseason tries), recorded 59 shots on goal (more than the total of his previous two postseasons combined – 50), and won 59 percent of 59 faceoffs he took.  His Corsi-for and Corsi/Releative numbers were good; he had as many shot attempts at 5-on-5 (44) as he had in his previous three postseasons combined.  It wasn’t even a case of his wilting in the second round as did a number of his teammates; he had five goals against the Penguins in six games, including a hat trick and the game-winning overtime goal in Game 1.  He even challenged an opponent to fight – a more accomplished pugilist in Brayden Schenn, too boot (15 career regular season and postseason fights) – to answer for a questionable hit in Game 5 of the first round against the Philadelphia Flyers…

He did just about everything but win.

In the end…

If you look at big off-season deals the Caps have made for forwards in the post 2004-2005 lockout era, whether a free agent signing or a trade, the deal to bring T.J. Oshie to Washington has to be considered a “win,” whatever one thinks of Troy Brouwer’s effect on the St. Louis Blues.  Sometimes trades really are “win-win.”  Oshie’s first year with the Caps (26-25-51, plus-16 in 80 games) resembles that of Mike Knuble in 2009-2010 (29-24-53, plus-23 in 69 games).  It was better than Brouwer’s first year with the Caps in 2011-2012 (18-15-33, minus-15 in 82 games). 

He became the fifth player to record a postseason of ten or more points in the post-2004-2005 lockout era with the Caps (Alex Ovechkin (four times), Nicklas Backstrom (twice), Alexander Semin, and John Carlson are the others).  Five games was his longest streak without a point, which is rather remarkable for a player who had just 51 points.  And, at least for one year, he shook off a series of disappointing playoff campaigns insofar as his own contributions are concerned.  It was a fine start to his stay in Washington, one that certainly has Caps fans hoping it extends beyond next year when his current contract runs its course.  His reliability and consistency made right wing a spot that was a plus for the team this season that it was not in recent years.

Grade: A

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2015-2016 By the Tens -- Forwards: Michael Latta

Michael Latta

“The best work is not what is most difficult for you; it is what you do best.”

-- Jean-Paul Sartre

Michael Latta has played in 113 regular season games for the Washington Capitals, 150^th in all-time games played, nestled between Joel Kwiatkowski and Greg Smith on the all-time franchise list.  There are 215 players with more points in Caps history than the 17 he has over three seasons.  The task of his making a durable mark in the history of the franchise is a difficult one, but it is not unlike the majority of players who play in the NHL.  Not everyone is Alex Ovechkin or Peter Bondra or Olaf Kolzig.

Latta did appear in 43 games in the 2015-2016 season and set personal highs in goals scored (3) and points (7) despite playing in fewer games than he did in the 2014-2015 season (53).  In fact, he was scoring at what was, for him or a fourth-liner in general, a pretty good clip.  He had his three goals for the season by the time he finished playing in his 22^nd game.  He had his seven points after he finished playing in 41 games.  Both were pretty good 82-game paces.  But he played those 41 games in the Caps’ first 58 games of the season.  Latta appeared only twice in the team’s last 24 games, those coming in Games 79 and 82 of the season.

In fact, it would appear entirely likely that Latta’s effective end to his season might have come sooner had not Jay Beagle been injured.  Mike Richards agreed to a one-year deal with the Caps on January 6^th but did not appear in a game until ten days later.  Beagle was out with an injured hand and would not return until late February.  Richards might have taken Latta’s spot in the lineup, but the injury to Beagle ensured that Latta remained in the lineup, appearing in 13 of 17 games until Beagle was healthy enough to return to the lineup on February 28^th.  

As it was, he did have respectable possession numbers in limited minutes.  His 51.29 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall was 10th among 15 forwards with at least 100 5-on-5 minutes (numbers from war-on-ice.com).  His CF%/Relative of plus-1.62 ranked seventh in that group.  His score adjusted numbers were better -- 52.62 percent Corsi-for (seventh) and CF%/Relative of plus-1.85 (fifth).

Fearless’ Take… There is primary scoring, there is secondary scoring, and there is tertiary scoring.  Or maybe quaternary scoring.  It’s sort of a scale of “have to have” to “nice to have.”  Getting points from Michael Latta was nice to have.  The Caps were 5-0-1 when he recorded a point this season.  In fact, the Caps are 11-2-2 whenever Latta scored a point in his career with them.  There was another odd aspect to his in-game performance and results this season.  The Caps were 5-1-2 in games in which he had a fighting major.  All-in-all, in games in which Latta had a point, a fight, or both, the Caps were 9-1-3 (he had a point and a fight in one game).  The Caps were 7-1-1 in games in which he had three or more credited hits, 15-0-2 when he was over 50 percent on faceoffs.  An active Michael Latta appears to have some relationship, if only coincidental, with winning.

Cheerless’ Take… The Caps were 2-3-2 in the seven games in which Latta had more than ten minutes of ice time, and he had only one point in those seven games (a goal against Calgary in an overtime loss in November).  They were 11-1-3 in games in which he had fewer than seven minutes of ice time.  Seems that there are limits to the benefits of his activity.

Odd Latta Fact… Coming into this season, the Caps had not lost a game in regulation when Michael Latta skated 15 or more shifts in a game (7-0-1, regular season and playoff games).  They were 1-3-1 this season when Latta had 15 or more shifts.

Game to Remember… December 16^th versus Ottawa

Coming off consecutive road wins in Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh, the Caps returned home in mid-December to face the Ottawa Senators.  The visitors were in something of a rut, having lost five of nine games going into their appearance at Verizon Center.  The Caps added to the Senators’ woes, largely in part to Michael Latta.  The Caps broke on top late in the first period, taking advantage of a sloppy line change by the Senators.  While the Senators were slow to sort things out, Latta split the defense to gather up a loose puck, break in on goalie Andrew Hammond, and roof the puck over Hammond’s glove into the top of the net. 

In the sixth minute of the second period, Latta moved the puck from the center red line up to Justin Williams, who carried into the offensive zone and was hooked by Curtis Lazar.  With a delayed penalty coming, Williams slid the puck off to John Carlson for a one-timer that beat Hammond for what would be the game-winning goal in a 2-1 win.  For Latta, it was his only multi-point game of the season, the second multi-point game of his career.

Game to Forget… October 30^th versus Columbus

The basic currency in which any professional athlete trades is playing time.  Getting it and keeping it is the first order of business.  A player cannot produce without it.  This is true for stars, and it is true for grinders.  For Michael Latta, the game against the Columbus Blue Jackets on October 30^th was one of those games of which it might be said they didn’t have to launder his jersey after the game.  He had already been out for the previous six games after getting a sweater for the first two games of the season.  He got his first shift against Columbus before the game was two minutes old, and it would end up being his longest shift of the game at 58 seconds.  When the final horn sounded he had only seven shifts and by far the least ice time of any Capital with 3:55 (Andre Burakovsky skated 7:09).  He did manage a shot on goal and a hit, and he won both faceoffs he took, but it was the quietest night of the season for Latta as far as ice time was concerned.

Postseason:  no games played

In the end…

It could not be called a good season for Michael Latta, but it was not a poor one, either.  If the season was a movie, his name would appear in the credit roll as a minor character than had a line or two early in the film.  But in a way, that is the point.  There are a variety of roles to be played on a 20-man roster over 82 games.  Some are starring roles, others are not.  Latta played a comparatively minor role in the 2015-2016 season, but that is one that he is equipped for.  It gives him an opportunity to display skills that others who get more ice time frankly are not paid to display – hitting, being an agitator, providing energy.  It is not necessarily a set of unique skills, but they still put him among the best there are that are employed to play professional hockey.  They should not be dismissed easily.

Grade: B-

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals: 2015-2016 By the Tens -- Forwards: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Evgeny Kuznetsov

“If we will be quiet and ready enough, we shall find compensation in every disappointment.“

-- Henry David Thoreau

It has taken a while, but Evgeny Kuznetsov has taken his place among the leaders in his 2010 draft class in a number of offensive categories.  Although he ranks just 23^rd in that class in NHL regular season games, he ranks tied for 17^th in goals (with Cam Fowler), ninth in assists, 13^th in points, sixth in plus-minus, and fifth in points per game among those of the 2010 draft class with at least 150 games played.

And that is with Kuznetsov having completed just his second full season with the Washington Capitals.  In 2015-2016 he finished ninth in the league in points (77) and fourth in assists (57).  His plus-27 tied Nashville’s James Neal and Pittsburgh’s Olli Maatta for sixth in the league.  Only three players (Patrick Kane, Artemi Parnarin, and John Gaudreau) had more games with three or more points than the eight recorded by Kuznetsov.

Things happened with Kuznetsov on the ice, although the results might not have been proportionate to the play at times.  In half of his ten-game splits, Kuznetsov finished with ten or more points.  Only twice did his on-ice Corsi-for (shot attempts) differential at 5-on-5 dip below plus-10, and that came early in the season (his second and third ten-game splits).  

However, if there was something ominous, something to portend difficulties in the playoffs, it came late in the season when his 5-on-5 goal differential went into negative territory in each of his last two ten-game splits (12 games in his last split).  There was also his plus-minus.  Only in the last ten-game split did Kuznetsov finish as a “minus” player after being at or near the top of the league rankings for much of the season.  And it was in that last ten-game split (12 games) that he recorded his only split without a goal.  In fact, Kuznetsov went his last 20 games of the regular season without a goal.

His scoring mattered.  The Caps were 14-2-1 in games in which he scored a goal, 37-5-5 in games in which he recorded a point.  And it was not just lighting the red light, it was activity, at least in terms of higher shot volumes.  In 19 games in which he recorded four or more shots, the Caps were 14-2-3.

Fearless’ Take… Even with the late-season problems, Kuznetsov managed to grind out points.  Until he had a five-game streak without a point late in the season (Games 71-75), he never went more than three games without a point.  And those 77 points are nothing to sneeze at.  He became the 11^th player in Capitals history 24 years of age or younger to record a season of more than 75 points and the fifth since the 2004-2005 lockout (the others are the “Young Guns” – Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Green, and Alexander Semin).

Cheerless’ Take…  Among 14 Caps forwards with at least 200 even-strength minutes in the regular season, Kuznetsov had the third-best Corsi-for among Caps forwards at 5-on-5 (52.53 percent) and the third-best Corsi-for/Relative (plus-2.14).  Sounds good, but maybe those were inflated numbers.   His score-adjusted numbers were not bad – 53.51 percent Corsi-for (third) and plus-2.20 Corsi-for/Relative (third), but among 13 forwards with at least 100 even strength minutes when the score was tied, he had the second-worst Corsi-for (48.91 percent) and second-worst Corsi-for/Relative (minus-2.49 percent; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Odd Kuznetsov Fact… Being an offensive player means having the puck with which to set up plays or score goals.  And having the puck is made easier by starting plays with it instead of having to chase it down, and the brings us to faceoffs.  In 31 games in which Kuznetsov had a faceoff winning percentage of better than 50 percent, the Caps were 25-4-2; they were 9-0-1 in games in which he had ten or more faceoff wins.

Game to Remember… October 23^rd versus Edmonton

In late October the Caps were wrapping up their trip to western Canada with a visit to Edmonton to face the Oilers after winning in Calgary over the Flames and in Vancouver over the Canucks.  Evgeny Kuznetsov had four points in the two games, all on assists.  It was mere prelude to what would unfold in Edmonton.  It started when Kuznetsov finished a smart tic-tac-toe passing play with Alex Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie from the top of the Oiler crease past goalie Anders Nilsson.  The teams then engaged in a back and forth that left the teams tied 3-3 approaching the mid-way point of the second period.  John Carlson lifted the puck out of the defensive end into neutral ice where Kuznetsov settled it, broke in on the Edmonton goal, and slid the puck through the pads of Nilsson.  Three minutes later he recorded the primary assist on a goal by Andre Burakovsky, then recorded an assist two minutes after that, skating with the puck for ten full seconds around the Oiler net before setting up a play that Justin Williams finished.  Kuznetsov capped his evening when he ripped a shot over the left shoulder of relief goalie Cam Talbot on a Caps power play, finishing the night with a hat trick and five points in the Caps’ 7-4 win.  It was Kuznetsov’s first career hat trick and his first five-point game (one of eight five-point games in the league this season).

Game to Forget… March 20^th versus Pittsburgh

The Caps’ last visit to Pittsburgh in the regular season did not start poorly, but it ended poorly for them and for Evgeny Kuznetsov.  The Penguins scored the game’s first goal 8:33 into the game and doubled their lead less than two minutes later.  The Caps tied the game in the second period, but the Pens grabbed the lead back less than a minutes after the Caps tied it.  Early in the third period Matt Cullen broke behind Kuznetsov and in on goalie Braden Holtby.  His snap shot was blocked, but not stopped by Holtby, the puck crawling up and over his shoulder before dropping into the net.  Chris Kunitz scored less than four minutes later, then Justin Schultz scored on a power play six minutes after that.  By the time the horn sounded, the Penguins had a 6-2 win, and Kuznetsov had his game to forget – on ice for four of the first five Penguin goals, one shot attempt, and a minus-4 in less than 14 minutes of ice time, his fourth lowest of the season.

Postseason: 12 games, 1-1-2, minus-4, 55.1 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5, plus-4.7 CF%/Relative

What a difference a year made.  In 14 games in the 2015 postseason Kuznetsov had two goals (including the series-clinching goal in Game 7 of the first round against the New York Islanders) and seven points in 14 games, with a plus-4 to go along with it.  Not bad for his first NHL postseason.  One might have been forgiven if that, plus being one of the top ten scorers in the league, would be a springboard to a fine 2016 postseason.   However, there was that late-seaosn swoon to consider, and that was a stronger indicator of postseason performance for Kuznetsov than his previous postseason or his regular season overall might have suggested.  He scored a goal in Game 3 against the Philadelphia Flyers, and he had an assist in Game 2 of the second round series against Pittsburgh, both points coming on power plays.  That was it.  No even strength points, one goal on 39 shots overall.  And the odd part of its was, the outcomes (points) diverged so much from the outputs (Corsi, Corsi/Relative), which looked so much better (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

In the end…

Evgeny Kuznetsov was – is, in fact – that productive second line center the Caps have been looking for since long before the Caps went back to red jerseys.  He is one of only ten centers in Caps history to record more than 75 points in a season and the only one other than Nicklas Backstrom in the post 2004-2005 lockout era.  He has a bright future ahead of him.  But that second line center problem – one that has haunted Caps’ postseason dreams for almost a decade – reared its ugly head once more. 
Playing well, at least insofar as the underlying numbers were concerned, just was not enough.  Maybe there wasn’t enough “battle” in Kuznetsov’s game when goals became harder to come by, maybe it was part of a longer slump, or maybe it was just bad luck.  But the fact is, Kuznetsov scored one goal in his last 32 games this season, regular season and playoffs.  It was like earning an “A” grade for the first half of the semester, then squandering the fine grade with poor performance on the final.  It is the kind of disappointment that can be a learning moment, that the postseason really is different, and that for a player with responsibilities as important as Kuznetsov’s it isn’t necessarily how you start, but how you finish. 

Grade: B-

Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America