Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 1

The Washington Capitals dropped the puck on their 2016-2017 season this week, and it was something of a mixed bag.  A win and a loss, some fine 5-on-5 play, less than fine play from special teams, performances you expect from some players, and performances from some players Caps fans will hope improves before too long. 

Record: 1-0-1

The season opened with a loss to a bitter rival who ended the Caps’ season last spring, and it was a chance to watch as that opponent raised their Stanley Cup championship banner.  The 3-2 Gimmick loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins was the Caps’ third straight regular season loss to the Pens dating back to last season, the second straight extra-time loss.  The loss broke a modest two-game winning streak in road openers (wins in Boston in 2014-2015 and in Calgary last season).

The home portion of the season got off to a better start with the Caps taking down the New York Islanders, 2-1, on Saturday.  It was the Caps second straight win in a home opener, the fourth straight home opener in which they earned points, their 3-0-1 record marred only by a 2-1 Gimmick loss to the Montreal Canadiens in 2014-2015.  The Caps’ 1-0-1 record to close Week 1 tied them with the Philadelphia Flyers for second place in the Metropolitan Division, one point behind the 2-0-0 Penguins. They were one of nine teams in the Eastern Conference to finish Week 1 without a loss in regulation.

Offense:  2.00/game (season: 2.00 /game; rank: T-24th)

Week 1 was an odd one in the offensive end of the week.  Two games, two goals in each, both goals in each game scored by the same player.  In the season opener, Andre Burakovsky potted both goals for the Caps, the second time in his three-year career he scored the first goal of the season for the Caps (he scored the Caps’ only goal in the 2-1 trick shot loss to Montreal to open the 2014-2015 season).  Both goals came off feeds from Nicklas Backstrom, the third time in four years Backstrom had a multi-assist game in the Caps’ season opener.

In the second game of the week it was fourth-liner Daniel Winnik getting the two-goal game for Washington.  Neither could be considered “fourth-liner” luck.  One came on a mid-air redirection of a shot from John Carlson; the other was the product of settling a bouncing puck in the neutral zone, turning Islander defenseman Travis Hamoinic inside out as he cut to the middle, deking goalie Thomas Greiss to the ice, and tucking the puck behind Greiss’ right pad for the score.  Those were first-liner quality goals.

What the Caps did not get was a point from the top line of Evgeny Kuznetsob, Alex Ovechkin, and T.J. Oshie.  The trio combined for 14 shots on goal for the week.  And their performance resulted in a bit of an odd time on ice outcome.  A certain pecking order unfolded, expected in one way, unexpected in another.  At even strength, Jay Beagle averaged 8:25, pretty much what one would expect from a fourth line center.  After that, things got a bit odd.  Lars Eller, the third-line center, led the team in average even strength ice time (16:22), and second line center Nicklas Backstrom was next at 15:08.  Top line center Evgeny Kuznetsov averaged just 14:38.  The differences were a bit more on the expected side in terms of shifts (Backstrom: 50; Kuznetsov: 47; Eller: 40; Beagle: 31).

Defense: 3.00/game (season: 2.33 /game; rank: 2nd)

Defense is in no small part keeping opponents’ opportunities to a minimum, and the Caps did a good job of that, given that they were facing two of the top centers in the game in the first two games.  Against Pittsburgh, with Sidney Crosby out of the lineup but Evgeni Malkin dressing, the Caps held the Pens to 30 shots on goal in 65 minutes, not bad against a club that led the league in shots on goal last season (33.2).  Malkin did have one of Pittsburgh’s goals, off a Caps turnover, but he was held to three shots. 

Against the Islanders, the Caps held the visitors to 22 shots on goal, only two of them from John Tavares.  The only goal the Islanders managed in those 22 shots was one off the stick of Ryan Strome that banked in behind goalie Braden Holtby off the left skate of defenseman Brooks Orpik.

On a shot attempts basis, the Caps had a good week.  At 5-on-5 they out-attempted the Penguins and Islanders by a 95-80 margin, their 54.29 percent Corsi-for ending the week seventh-best in the league (numbers from Corsica.hockey).

Goaltending: 1.45 /.942 (season: 1.45 / .942)

Braden Holtby got both starts in Week 1, and he looked every bit the Vezina Trophy-winning goalie he was last season. It was not a case of making acrobatic, SportsCenter highlight reel saves.  It was just a matter of playing the position efficiently with position, anticipation, and angles.  It was not the saves, but rather the goals that reflected just how good a week Holtby had.  Patric Hornqvist redirected a Kris Letang shot, and Evgeni Malkin scored when he got behind the Caps defense after a turnover that left all of the Caps skaters heading the other way in the Caps’ 3-2 Gimmick loss to the Penguins.  Against the Islanders, the only goal allowed by Holtby was a redirect of the skate of teammate Brooks Orpik.  Can’t say there were any softies in there.  Holtby was also strong late.  He had a first period save percentage of .947 in the first periods for the week and a .889 save percentage in the second periods of those games.  But in the third period he was 13-for-13 for the week and turned aside both shots he saw in overtime against Pittsburgh.

If there was one area of concern, though, it was in that freestyle competition against Pittsburgh.  Holtby allowed three goals on four shots and has the worst save percentage of any of the six goaltenders having so far participated in the Gimmick.

Power Play: 0-for-8 / 0.0 percent (season: 0.0 percent; rank: T-24th)

Blech… The best you can say about the power play on Week 1 is that it could have been worse.  For instance, in three games the Chicago Blackhawks do not have a goal on 20 man advantage shots on goal.  The Caps went 0-for-9 in two games in coming up empty on eight power plays.  There was a certain “handedness” to the power play, but not one that Caps fans would find unusual.  Alex Ovechkin had three of the nine shots on goal; John Carlson had four, giving the Caps a shots profile that emphasized the top and left sides of the power play.  What they did not get was anything from the middle of the 1-3-1.  Andre Burakovsky and Dmitry Orlov had the other shots, meaning that T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams, who combined for more than 15 minutes on the power play, did not get a shot on goal from the middle.  Maybe chalk this one up to early season discombobulation, although last year the Caps were 2-for-9 in their first two games on the power play.

Penalty Killing: 2-for-4 / 50.0 percent (season: 50.0 percent; rank: T-27th)

The special teams were no better on the other side of the ledger.  The best that could be said here was that the Caps were not forced to skate shorthanded very much, just four such situations for the week, two in each game.  And even though the Caps were just 2-for-4 for the week, both of the goals were redirections, one by Pittsburgh’s Patrick Hornqvist from the high slot and the other a Ryan Strome shot off the skate of defenseman Brooks Orpik in the Islander game.  They were not the product of whiz-bang offensive playmaking, but they were the sort of opportunistic goals that teams get – and need to have – in close games.  And, both of the goals, if you include where the puck struck Orpik, were scored from the middle, where the Caps failed on their own power plays.

Faceoffs: 68-for-125 / 54.4 percent (season: 54.4% / rank: 11th)

Washington dominated Pittsburgh in the faceoff circle, 41 to 28, then roughly split their draws with the Isles, 27 to 29.  But the aggregate numbers are better than they look in detail.  The plus-11 in wins and losses for the week is dominated by the Caps’ performance in the neutral zone, where they were 21-for-31 (67.7 percent).  They were one over .500 in the offensive zone (26-for-50), and they were one under in the defensive zone (21-for-44).

Individually, Nicklas Backstrom had a good week overall, going 23-for-38 (60.5 percent) and was very good in the offensive (53.3 percent) and defensive (84.6 percent) zones.  Evgeny Kuznetsov took the second heist number of draws for the week (33) and finished under 50 percent (42.4), but he rehabilitated that number by breaking even in both the offensive and defensive zones.

Goals by Period:

The Caps won the first and third periods for the week, going plus-1 in both overall.  They were one under for the second period, but they finished games well, blanking the Penguins and Islanders in the third period and overtime.  The Caps scored first in both games, and if this is a trend they can establish with some regularity, they should be fine in the longer run.

In the end…

It is a measure of just how good the Caps were last season when they earned three points in two games, did not lose in regulation, and averaging 1.5 points per game is barely better than what they averaged per game last season (1.46).  Sure… two games, small population of games, etc.  The Caps showed what depth, defense, and down-roster production can do for a team, a welcome contribution in light of the difficulties the top line experienced in Week 1.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Daniel Winnik (2-0-2, GWG)
• Second Star: Andre Burakovsky (2-0-2)
• Third Star: Braden Holtby (1-0-1, 1.45, .942)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 2: The Home Opener, Islanders at Capitals, October 15th

 The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals raise the curtain on the home portion of their 2016-2017 season on Saturday night when they host the New York Islanders at Verizon Center.  Both teams will be looking to post their first win of the new season, both having lost their season openers to perhaps their most bitter rivals.  The Caps dropped a 3-2 decision in the trick shot competition against the Pittsburgh Penguins, while the Islanders lost to the New York Rangers, 5-3, in a game that featured a wild third period with each team scoring three goals.

New York comes into this contest with several new faces.  One is Dennis Seidenberg, a defenseman with more than 750 regular season games of experience, now in his 14th NHL season and his sixth team.  For the seven season preceding this one, Seidenberg skated with the Boston Bruins, often with Zdeno Chara as his partner.  He joins Johnny Boychuk as the thirtysomethings on the blueline on a squad that is otherwise in their mid-twenties.  Seidenberg, who was bought out by the Bruins over the summer and who turned 35 in July, was once one of the more durable defensemen in the league, but recent years have been plagued by injuries.  He lost 56 games (44 in the regular season and 12 in the playoffs) to a knee injury in 2013-2014, and he had two absences to injury last season – 14 games in November for back surgery and five more in April to a lower body injury.  He is 1-11-12, minus-10 in 37 career games against Washington.

Another of the new faces is Andrew Ladd, although his face would be familiar to Caps fans from his years with the Carolina Hurricanes and the Atlanta Thrashers/Winnipeg Jets.  Ladd is another member of the 700 Club, having played in 770 games in his career over 12 seasons.  Ladd has been a reliable and consistent, if not flashy goal scorer over his entire career.  Only once in the last six seasons did he fail to hit the 20-goal mark, and he still managed 18 in 48 games of the abbreviated 2012-2013 season.  Last season, split between the Jets and the Chicago Blackhawks, Ladd scored 25 goals, a total higher than in any season since 2011-2012 (28).  Ladd faces the Caps with his fourth NHL team and is 14-19-33, plus-13 in 42 games overall.

Another new face at the other end of the experience scale is left winger Anthony Beauvillier.  The 28th overall pick of the 2015 draft was something of a surprise coming out of training camp on the parent roster, perhaps especially so given his size (5’11”/170 pounds).  His diminutive stature has not been an impediment to his scoring goals though, at least not in junior hockey./  Over the last two seasons with the Shawinigan Cataractes, Beauvillier had 82 goals in 114 regular season games, and he had another 23 goals in 28 postseason games.

1.  Last year, goaltender Jaroslav Halak followed up an iffy first game out (three goals on 22 shots in a 6-3 win over the San Jose Sharks) with a 37-save shutout in his second game (a 4-0 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets).  He allowed four goals on 38 shots in the 5-3 loss to the New York Rangers in the Islanders’ opener.  Let’s hope this second game thing doesn’t become a trend.

2.  The Islanders’ top line had an interesting look it its opener.  John Tavares centering that line – a given.  Andrew Ladd on one wing – solid scorer.  On the other side…Jason Chimera.  That’s right, the Ice Cheetah opened the season on the top line and did have a shot on goal (Ladd had four, Tavares three, but the line did not record a point).

3. Last season, Nick Leddy became just the third Islander defenseman since the 2005-2005 lockout to record 40 points in a season.  Mark Streit did it three times, and Tom Poti did it once.  Odd thing about those five instances of defensemen scoring 40 points.  Only one of them was a year when the player finished with a positive plus-minus (Mark Streit was plus-5 with his 16-40-56 season in 2008-2009).

4.  Whether it is a case of turnover or just John Tavares’ talent, he is the Islanders’ active roster leader in goals scored with the franchise with 207.  No other Islander on the squad has more than 93 – Josh Bailey, and that in 47 more career games than Tavares (558 to 511).

5.  Jaroslav Halak is within striking distance of playing in his 100the NHL game (he has appeared in 96 games to date for the Isles).  When he gets to 100, he will take over the franchise top spot in goals against average (it is currently 2.40; Glenn Resch is next at 2.56). He will also take over the top spot in save percentage, absent a collapse (currently .915 to Evgeni Nabokov’s .910).  He is already in the top-ten in wins (56) and will tie Nabokov for eighth place if he wins on Saturday.

1. There have been 452 skaters dressing for games through Thursday’s games.  Only ten of them have a shooting percentage of 100 percent.  Andre Burakovsky is one of them.  He and Montreal’s Brendan Gallagher are the only two to have done it on two shots.

2.   Caps defensemen accounted for 15 shots on goal in the 3-2 Gimmick loss to Pittsburgh in the opener.  John Carlson had five of them, the 30^th time in his career he recorded five or more shots on goal in a game.  Not that he has been especially efficient in those games.  Carlson is 5-for-170 (2.9 percent) in those 30 games.

3.  The safest bet you can make about a Caps home opener is that Alex Ovechkin will be on the score sheet.  In 11 home openers to date, Ovechkin has points in 11 of them (he was blanked by Montreal in the 2014 home opener).  He has goals in eight of those games, and his scoring line in home openers is 13-7-20, plus-11.  The Caps are 9-1-1 in those games.

4.  Braden Holtby, on the other hand, has not been lights out, so to speak, in home openers.  Quite the contrary.  In four home openers he has allowed 11 goal;s on 98 shots in just under 200 minutes.  That works out to a 3.30 goals against average and a .888 save percentage. He is 1-1-1 with one no-decision in those openers.

5.  From 2001 through 2011, the Caps won ten straight home openers, but since then have alternated wins and losses (2-1-1).  They are trying to win consecutive home openers for the first time since 2010 and 2011.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Jason Chimera

Jason Chimera was given a chance on opening night to play with more talented forwards than he might have seen on a regular basis in the past.  Skating with John Tavares and Andrew Ladd could, if it continues, give Chimera a chance to break a curious pattern in recent years.  Over his last five seasons he record 20 goals, three, 15, seven, and then 20 goals again last season.  Getting off to good starts has been important in the productive seasons in that stretch.  He had three goals in his first two games and four in the first five of the 2011-2012 seaosn when he had 20 goals, five in his first 13 games of the 2013-2014 season when he had 15 goals, and three in his first six games last season when he hit the 20 goal mark for the second time in his career.  Chimera is 1-2-3, plus-2 in five career games against Washington.

Washington: Tom Wilson

It was not an auspicious start to the new season for Tom Wilson.  He skated just 5:31 in ice time, did not have a shot of goal or a shot attempt.  He did have three hits and a fighting major, but this is a season in which Wilson has nothing left to prove as far as his ability to apply a physical game is concerned.  He could be in a Catch-22 situation in which he is getting fourth line minutes that do not give him much opportunity to produce more in the offensive end of the rink, but he is has to produce more to be promoted into more offensively responsible roles.  Wilson is 1-3-4, plus-1 in 12 career games against the Islanders.  He has more career points against the Islanders than he has against any other team except the Columbus Blue Jackets (five points).

In the end…

For the Islanders, there is a “future is now” quality about their roster retooling, even though they have just the 18th-oldest team in the league.  Dennis Seidenberg and Andrew Ladd both have Stanley Cups on their resumes (Ladd with the 2006 Carolina Hurricanes and 2010 Chicago Blackhawks, Seidenberg with the 2011 Boston Bruins).  For the Caps, it is an opportunity to welcome their fans back to hockey in friendly confines on one level.  On another it is a chance to establish their home dominance out of the gate and get some players they need to contribute off and running.

Capitals 4 – Islanders 1

A ONE-Point Night -- Game 1: Penguins 3 - Capitals 2 (OT/Gimmick)

On Thursday night, the Washington Capitals began their 2016-2017 season where their 2015-2016 season ended, and it ended in much the same way as that season ending game ended, on the short end of an extra-time decision.

This time it was Phil Kessel shoving the dagger into the Caps with a goal in the trick shot phase of the competition.  Before that, the teams played a game that looked at times more like a postseason contest than one to open the season.  Andre Burakovsky got the Caps off and running in the first minute when he took a pass from Nicklas Backstrom at the Penguin blue line, split two defenders, and buried a snap shot past goalie Marc-Andre Fleury.

The Penguins took the lead in the second period on a power play goal by Patric Hornqvist, a deflection of a Kris Letang drive that caromed off the post tp the right of goalie Braden Holtby, and a tally by Evgeni Malkin late in the period off a turnover at the Caps’ blue line.

Burakovsky and Backstrom teamed up a second time to tie the game six minutes into the third period when Backstrom took a pass at the Penguin blue line, curled into the offensive zone, and dropped a pass for Burakovsky, who wired the puck past Fleury.

Neither team could score in the extra session, leaving things to be settled in the freestyle competition.  T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstrom goals were matched by Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang.  Phil Kessel scored in top of the fourth round, and when Alex Ovechkin failed to get the equalizer in the bottom of the frame, the Caps skated off the ice in Pittsburgh disappointed once more.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps had 41 shots on goal.  They did not hit the 40-shot mark in a game last season until Game 26 against the Detroit Red Wings (another Gimmick outcome, that one a 3-2 win).

-- Washington finished the game with 68 total shot attempts to 48 for the Pens.  Alex Ovechkin had 12 of those shot attempts, five of them on goal.

-- Andre Burakovsky might not have had as big a night as rookie Auston Matthews had in his debut in Toronto the previous evening, but he did score goals on his only two shots of the contest. It is the second time in three seasons he recorded the Caps’ first goal of the season.  He did it on Opening Night of the 2014-2015 season against the Montreal Canadiens.

-- The Caps finished strong, shot-wise, putting 21 shots on goal in the third period and overtime to ten for the Penguins.

-- Zach Sanford skated 14:48 in his NHL debut, recording one shot on goal and a hit, and he won all three faceoffs he took, two of them from Evgeni Malkin.

-- Nicklas Backstrom did what Nicklas Backstrom does, assisting on both Capitals goals.  It was his 117^th multi-assist game in his career (a franchise best), his tenth against the Penguins, tying Mike Ridley for most in Caps history against Pittsburgh.

-- Burakovsky became the 27^th player in Caps history to record a multi-goal game against the Penguins.

-- Want to concern yourself over something early?  Tom Wilson skated just 5:31 (only three of his 11 shifts lasted more than 40 seconds), did not record a shot attempt, and had a fighting major penalty.

-- Karl Alzner had three shots on goal.  He had just six games with three or more shots on goal last season, and his first one didn’t come until New Year’s Eve, in Game 37.

-- Braden Holtby’s record sank to 5-7-2 against Pittsburgh.  And again, he suffered from a lack of run support.  This was his fourth loss to the Pens having allowed three or fewer goals.  Oddly, though, it was the sixth loss (first in extra time) in which he faced 30 or fewer shots (he faced 20 in this game).  He is 1-5-1 against the Pens when facing 30 or fewer shots (including games in which he had less than a full game of ice time).

In the end…

Hey, the Pens got shutout on Opening Night last season and won the Stanley Cup.  Then again, they fired their coach a couple of months later.  The point is, don’t make too much of this.  The Caps played very well, even with Sidney Crosby missing from action.  The second line of Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson, and Andre Burakovsky was very good.  The top line of Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin, and T.J. Oshie had a combined nine shots on goal.  Braden Holtby was, for the most part, sharp.  This is a team that is going to be fun to watch.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 1: Opening Night, Capitals at Penguins, October 13th

The Peerless Prognosticator is BACK ON THE AIR!!!

“Hope is a waking dream.”

-- Aristotle

Thirty teams head into the 2015-2016 season this week with eyes wide open in a waking dream of clutching the Stanley Cup next June.  For the Washington Capitals and their fans it has been a dream unfulfilled for 42 years, but with Thursday night’s game against the Pittsburgh Penguins to open their 2015-2016 season, the dream is renewed once more.

The Caps will have a painfully close look at what fulfillment of that dream looks like when the Penguins raise the banner in celebration of winning the fourth Stanley Cup in their history last spring.  That Cup came at the expense of the Capitals, who the Penguins defeated in six games in the Eastern Conference semifinals on the same ice sheet on which this season will begin.

The Capitals are largely, but not entirely, unchanged from the team that lost to the Penguins in overtime of Game 6 of their playoff series last spring.  Gone from the roster for that game are forwards Jason Chimera (to the New York Islanders), Michael Latta (to the Los Angeles Kings), and Mike Richards (currently an unsigned, unrestricted free agent); and defenseman Mike Weber (a late-season acquisition who failed to stick with the St. Louis Blues after being offered a professional try out).  Those losses represent 25 of the 248 goals scored by the Caps in the regular season last year, but only one of the 29 goals scored by the Caps in the playoffs (that by Chimera).

Newcomers include forwards Lars Eller, Brett Connolly, and rookie Zach Sanford.  Eller is the key acquisition filling the third line center hole that was a source of occupant turnover and inconsistency last season.  Eller was 13-13-26, minus-13 for the Montreal Canadiens and brings with him a career per-82 game average of 14-15-29, minus-6.  There is no mystery to hisrole.  Eller is to fill on a steady and consistent basis that third line center position.   He had a fine preseason for the Caps, going 2-2-4, plus-1 in five games.

Brett Connolly’s role is less well defined, but perhaps no less important.  He could play on the right side on any of the four forward lines if called upon, although it would appear likely that he would open the season on the third or fourth line.  He is coming off a season in which he appeared in more games (71) than any of his other four NHL seasons and one in which he posted a career high in points (25).  Connolly did not record a point in five preseason games for the Caps.

Sanford is the second rookie in the last three seasons to make the Cap’s Opening Night roster straight out of amateur hockey.  Andre Burakovsky graduated from the Erie Otters of the Ontario Hockey League to the Caps in 2014-2015, and Sanford make the jump from the Boston College Eagles of the NCAA for the last two seasons to the Caps to start this season.  Sanford had two goals and an assist in five preseason games.

1.  Pittsburgh is has never lost a home opener in a season following a Stanley Cup win.  They opened their 1991-1992 and 1992-1993 seasons with ties, both against the Philadelphia Flyers, and won their 2009-2010 home opener against the New York Rangers.

2.  The Penguins lost only one player who appeared in at least 40 games for the club last season.  Defenseman Ben Lovejoy, who appeared in 66 regular season and 24 postseason games, signed as an unrestricted free agent with the New Jersey Devils last July. 

3.  Pittsburgh did not lose consecutive games in the regular season after January 15^th.  After that point, the Penguins went 28-10-1.  They were 14-2-0 in their last 16 regular season games.

4.  It would not surprise you to know that Sidney Crosby led the Penguins in regular season scoring against the Caps last season (1-3-4 in five games).  However, you might be surprised to know that the two Penguins tying Crosby for the team lead in points against the Caps were Matt Cullen (3-1-4 in five games) and Tom Kuhnhackl (1-3-4 in three games).  Cullen led the team in goals against the Caps.

5.  Pittsburgh enters the season having finished second in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 last season (52.72 percent to Los Angeles’ 56.37; numbers from Corsica.hockey).  Only five of 24 skaters with at least 250 5-on-5 minutes finished under 50 percent for the regular season; one of them (Kevin Porter) did not skate in the postseason, and another (Rob Scuderi) did not finish the season with the team).

1.  This will be the first time that the Caps opened a season against the Penguins since they dropped a 7-4 decision at home to the Pens to open the 1990-1991 season.  It has been 30 years since the Caps opened a season in Pittsburgh, losing to the Penguins by a 5-4 margin to open the 1986-1987 season.

2.  When Braden Holtby appeared in 66 games last season he became just the second goalie in Caps history to appear in 65 or more games in two or more seasons (Olaf Kolzig did it four times).  He is the first to do it in consecutive seasons for the Caps since Kolzig appeared in 71 games in 2001-2002 and 66 games in 2002-2003.

3.  The Caps did not win consecutive games in regulation time after March 2^nd.  They went 9-6-4 over that final stretch.

4.  Washington had balanced scoring against the Penguins last season.  Four Caps had four points: T.J. Oshie (3-1-4), Andre Burakovsky (2-2-4), John Carlson (1-3-4), and Nicklas Backstrom (1-3-4).  Alex Ovechkin did not have a point against Pittsburgh in five games, the first time in his career he failed to record a point against Pittsburgh in a season.  It was the first time he did not record a goal against the Penguins since 2006-2007.

5.  The Caps finished the season in the middle of the pack, possession-wise.  Their 51.04 Corsi-for at 5-on-5 was 14^th in the league, a hair lower than their 51.36 Corsi-for in 2014-2015 (numbers from Corsica.hockey).  It still represents quite an improvement from the Dale Hunter/Adam Oates era in which the Caps failed to clear the 50 percent bar in three straight years.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Pittsburgh: Nick Bonino

When last we saw Nick Bonino, he was sticking the dagger in the Caps’ 2015-2016 season, scoring the game-winning, series-clinching, vomit-in-the-mouth-inducting goal to wrap up a series in which he went 2-3-5, plus-5 in six games.  It really wasn’t much of a fluke, at least in the context of the 2016 playoffs.  His four goals for the tournament tied a career best (four in 2014 with the Anaheim Ducks), while his 18 points in 24 games more than doubled his career best (eight points in that same 2014 postseason with the Ducks).  For the moment, it is his versatility and the ability to use him in a variety of roles that will be tested, depending on whether Sidney Crosby will be available for the opener against the Caps.  Bonino is 2-2-4, minus-5 in 11 career regular season games against Washington.

Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov

When last we saw Evgeny Kuznetsov, he was having a nightmare of a postseason and a series against the Penguins.  He finished the 2016 postseason with just one goal and one assist in 12 games, with a minus-4 for good measure.  He was 0-for-19 shooting in six games against Pittsburgh (1-for-39 for the playoffs).  It was quite a turnaround from his star-turn in his first exposure to playoff hockey in 2015, when scored five goals and had seven points in 14 games, one of the goals being the series-clincher against the New York Islanders in the first round.  Getting off to a good start would help dilute the bad taste of last spring.  Kuznetsov is 2-3-5, minus 2 in 11 career games against Pittsburgh.

In the end…

Pittsburgh will not be immune to the distractions and hoopla that goes with raising the Stanley Cup banner.  But neither is it likely to be a significant distraction; they are a tested, veteran team.  The Caps will not be immune to thinking about “what if” as that banner goes up and highlights of last season are played on the video screen.  But neither is it likely to be a significant disruption to the business at hand.  In a rivalry that has had a lot of twists and turns over the years, this will be one more in that history.

Capitals 4 – Penguins 2

Washington Capitals: Five Bold...Perhaps Deranged Predictions

We end the look ahead to the Washington Capitals’ 2016-2017 season with “Five Bold…Perhaps Deranged Predictions,” guaranteed to make you think, or perhaps just annoy you.  Let’s get right to the big one…

1.  Alex Ovechkin will not only not record 50 goals this season, but we have seen his last 50 goal season.

Pop quiz question…how many seasons of 50 or more goals have been recorded by someone 31 years old or older in NHL history?  The answer: 10.  That was accomplished by nine different players.  Phil Esposito did it twice, the last time at age 32 (61 goals in 1974-1975).  John Bucyk was the oldest to do it (age 35).  It has only been done twice in the last 20 years (Joe Sakic with 54 goals in 2000-2001 at age 31 and Jaromir Jagr with 54 goals in 2005-2006 at age 33).  Alex Ovechkin turned 31 years of age in September.

This is not to say Ovechkin will slide down among the also-rans in the league goal-scoring rankings, nor does it mean that Ovechkin has necessarily won his last Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal-scorer.  We think he will, in fact, win the Richard Trophy this season (keep in mind, he is the only player over the last three years to finish with 50 goals in a season, which he did in each year).  However, time takes its toll on every player, sooner or later, and the first indications of time’s march on Ovechkin will be seen this season.

2.  The Capitals will have two finalists for individual awards this season who have not been one in their careers to date.

It says here that John Carlson will be a finalist for the Norris Trophy as the league’s top defenseman, and that Evgeny Kuznetsov will be a finalist for the Hart Trophy.  Carlson is the easier case to make.  This might be the season in which a defenseman can thread the needle between P.K. Subban and Shea Weber, players traded for one another playing in new cities this season, to grab a finalist nod.  Last year’s finalists – Erik Karlsson, Drew Doughty, and Brent Burns – certainly will be in the mix.  Others might include Philadelphia’s Shayne Gostisbehere, Nashville’s Roman Josi, Dallas’ John Klingberg, and Pittsburgh’s Kris Letang.  However, Carlson has displayed very consistent improvement in his per-game scoring on a year-to-year basis, and despite missing 26 games last season averaged a career best 0.70 points per game.  Health, and the opportunity to hone his game in the World Cup, could give him a head start of taking the next step to elite defenseman status.

Kuznetsov is the harder case, or at least not an obvious one, especially playing a position (center) crowded with players such as Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and John Tavares, who could challenge to be a Hart finalist, not to mention the likes of Patrick Kane or Jamie Benn.  The argument for Kuznetsov is admittedly speculative, but this is a player who more than doubled his point total last year over his first full season preceding it (from 37 points to 77).  He led the Caps in assists (57) and total points (77) last season.  The wild card is whether and how much he can improve on the 20 goals he recorded last season.  If that number is 25-30, and he improves on his fourth-place finish in assists, he could sneak into the discussion of Hart finalists.

3.  The Capitals will repeat as Presidents Trophy winner.

Since the Presidents Trophy was first awarded in 1985-1986, there have been six repeat winners (Edmonton in 1985-1986 and 1986-1987, Calgary in 1987-1988 and 1988-1989, Detroit in 1994-1995 and 1995-1996, Dallas in 1997-1998 and 1998-1999, Detroit again in 2003-2004 and 2005-2006 (the 2004-2005 year lost to a labor-management dispute), and most recently by Vancouver in 2010-2011 and 2011-2012).  The Caps have two players – Kuznetsov and Andre Burakovsky – who are still very much on the upward arc of their career path, and they will have more stability on the third line with Lars Eller anchoring it.  This will be, on paper, a team with at least as much potential as last year’s squad, even if goalie Braden Holtby does not have quite the year he had last season.  They will be able to take advantage of a post-Stanley Cup letdown by the Penguins and a New York Rangers team depending too much on another year older Henrik Lundqvist to finish with a stronger division record than they had last season.

4.  The Capital prospect most likely to make an impact this season is…

Not Zach Sanford.  Sure, he is the only rookie to make the club out of training camp, but this is our chance to go off the board here, and we’ll do just that.  Jakub Vrana was 16-18-34, plus-7 in 36 games for the Hershey Bears last season.  He had points in 14 of the Bears’ last 19 games.  In the postseason he was 8-6-14, plus-8 in 21 games.  Vrana might spend most of his 2015-2016 season in Hershey further acclimating himself to the North American game, but he is going to show Capitals fans why it is that his stay in Hershey is not likely to extend beyond this season.

5.  The road to the Stanley Cup will go through Pittsburgh…again, but with a happier ending.

Just as they did in 2012, when the Caps eliminated the Boston Bruins, the Capitals will eliminate the defending Stanley Cup champions in the first round of the postseason, although this time it will not take a Joel Ward (or anyone else) overtime goal in Game 7 to do it.  Three times, the team winning the second of their consecutive Presidents Trophies won the Stanley Cup (Edmonton in 1987, Calgary in 1989, and Dallas in 1999).  Washington will make it four.

Photo: Hockey Hall of Fame Archives

Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Goaltenders: Braden Holtby

Braden Holtby

“Your own positive future begins in this moment. All you have is right now. Every goal is possible from here.”

― Lao Tzu

Each of the Washington Capitals’ last two seasons ended with a goal in overtime, both on the road, both with the deafening roar of opponents’ fans spilling down on them.  Both of them with goaltender Braden Holtby face down in his own crease, the puck from the season-ending goal behind him.  Don’t even try to imagine what that feels like.

It was a sour ending for what had been a sweet season for Holtby, who set a club record for wins in a season (48) and tied an NHL record for victories in a season.  He jumped into second place in all time wins in Capitals franchise history (149).  He posted his best goals against average in a season in which he appeared in more than 20 games (2.20).  For the fourth straight season he posted at least three shutouts and has the second-most such seasons in franchise history (Olaf Kolzig: 6).  He extended his franchise high in .920-plus save percentage seasons with his third (minimum: 30 games).  Holtby had just nine losses in regulation in 66 games all season, the second fewest number of losses in regulation time for a goaltender appearing in at least 60 games in a season, just one more than the nine regulation losses Ken Dryden suffered in 64 games with the 1971-1972 Montreal Canadiens.  It was a regular season good enough to make him the third goaltender in club history to win the Vezina Trophy as the league’s outstanding netminder (Kolzig, Jim Carey).

Holtby took his place among the elite goalies in the league in 2015-2016.  By season’s end, his 135 wins over his four full seasons in the league led all NHL goaltenders.  His 20 shutouts (he had three last season) was better than all but one goaltender (Marc-Andre Fleury: 21).  Over the last four seasons, he ranks fifth among NHL goaltenders in complete games played (more than 55 minutes of ice time) in which he allowed fewer than two goals.  He was one of four goalies last season with more than 20 such games last season.

Fearless’ Take…

Braden Holtby’s dominance last season was amazing.  The 103 standings points he accounted for with his 48 wins and seven overtime/shootout losses was more than all but two entire teams in the league in 2015-2016 (not including the Caps).  He did not lose consecutive decisions until he took overtime loss decisions in his 64^th and 65^th games of the season (they happened to be the only consecutive games in which he allowed more than three goals).  He did not lose consecutive decisions in regulation all season (he has gone 79 regular season games, and counting, without losing consecutive decisions in regulation, dating back to the 2014-2015 season).  He was also a stopper.  When losing a decision, Holtby’s record in his following appearance was 16-0-1, 1.76, .932, and only once in those 17 games did he allow more than two goals.

Cheerless’ Take…

There was a strange aspect to Holtby’s season.  It was as if he had two seasons in two seasons.  In the regular season he was 28-4-2, 1.91, .933, with two shutouts in his first 35 games, then he went 20-5-5, 2.55, .908, with one shutout in his last 31 games.  When he got to the playoffs, it was the same. Holtby was 4-2, 0.84, .968, with two shutouts in the first round win over Philadelphia.  Then, he was 2-4, 2.57, .923 in the second round loss to Pittsburgh.

The Big Question… Was 2015-2016 the “new normal” for Braden Holtby?

The short answer to that question is “no.”  Any Caps fans who would see a 40-plus win season for Holtby without approaching last year’s win total as a “disappointment” does not understand just how special last season was for Holtby and the Caps.  But for the time being, Holtby has the benefit of a team in front of him that can score, and deep and improving defense, and a goaltending coach in Mitch Korn that has tapped the rich vein of skill and focus that has helped raise Holtby’s game to an elite level.  To that extent, a season hovering around 40 wins (he has two of the 26 40-plus win seasons since the 2004-2005 lockout), a goals against average under 2.30, and a save percentage over .920 can be a “normal” level of production for Holtby in his prime.

There is a “new normal” in which he and the Caps would be more interested in finding, though.  Holtby is the only goaltender in more than 25 years to have appeared in at least 20 postseason games and post a goals against average of less than 2.00 (1.87) and a save percentage higher than .930 (.937).  Even if you look at the three second round series in which he has played (and in which the Caps were eliminated), you wonder what the problem is.  In 20 second round games, he has a goals against average of 2.06 and a save percentage of .933 (both numbers are better than the playoff Matt Murray posted for the Penguins in winning the Cup last spring).  He also has a win-loss record of 8-12 in those 20 second round games (7-11 in one-goal decisions, 1-6 in overtime).  Only once in eight games in which he allowed three or more goals in a second round game did he earn a victory (a 4-3 overtime win over Pittsburgh in Game 1 last spring).  More wins with that level of performance is not unreasonable and would certainly be welcomed as a new normal.

In the end…

Over the last four seasons, two goaltenders have appeared in at least 100 regular season games, have a goals-against average of 2.40 or lower, a save percentage of .920 or higher, and 20 or more shutouts – Carey Price and Braden Holtby.  That is a pretty choice neighborhood.  In the postseason, two goalies have appeared in at least 20 games over the same four years, have a goals against average under 2.00, have a save percentage over .930, and posted four or more shutouts – Tuukka Rask and Braden Holtby.  If you are asking Holtby to do more, you might be a bit picky.

But if wins are not the proper measure of a goaltender’s skill or worth in the regular season, it’s the only measure that applies in the postseason.  We missed that conversation about the best postseason goalies over the last few years that included mention of Holtby, although his numbers certainly suggest he could stand among others in that group.  What it suggests is that while goalie is the most important position in the postseason, having the incumbent shine is not a sufficient condition for postseason success.  In that respect, all the disconnects between Holtby’s individual performance and that of the Caps in the playoffs are a part of the past.  His and the Caps’ positive future begins in this moment. All they have is right now. Every goal is possible from here, even a Stanley Cup.

Projection: 67 games, 41-14-7, 2.24, .922, 3 shutouts

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Goaltenders: Philipp Grubauer

Philipp Grubauer

“Rivers know this: there is no hurry. We shall get there some day.”

― A.A. Milne

The Washington Capitals have done a fine job of drafting and developing goaltenders in recent history.  Since 2005 they have drafted ten goaltenders, three of them having appeared in 200 or more NHL games.  A fourth goaltender from that cohort has NHL experience under his belt as well.  Philipp Grubauer has a modest 42-game resume, but in 2015-2016 he established himself for the time being as the Capitals’ number two goaltender.

That role did not come without adjustments for Grubauer.  He appeared in just 22 games in the regular season, his lightest game load in his five seasons in professional hockey (including ECHL, AHL, and NHL games played).  His next lowest number of appearances in a season is 43 in 2011-2012. 

Whether it was a product of the frequency of his play or the ebb and flow of an NHL season, Grubauer had an odd journey through last season.  In seven games in which he appeared after an absence of ten or more days (including his first appearance of the season), he was 2-3-1, 2.88, .897.  In the 15 appearances he made with less than ten days off, Grubauer was 6-6-0, 2.04, .928.  And that ten-day threshold is a reflection of how much the team leaned on Braden Holtby early in the season.  Of his first 13 appearances of the season, seven of them (including his first appearance of the season) came after an absence of ten or more days.  None of his last nine appearances came after so long an absence.

Fearless’ Take…

Philipp Grubauer is quietly establishing himself in the community of goaltenders in franchise history.  If he matches last year’s 22 appearances, he would surpass Craig Billington, Semyon Varlamov, and Mike Palmateer in games played for the Caps and would tie Mike Liut for 19^th place among 46 goalies to suit up in Caps history.  If he matches last year’s win total of eight, he would jump into the top 20 in wins in franchise history.  His goals against average (2.37) is third among all Caps goalies to have appeared in at least 20 games and is just one point behind Jim Carey and Braden Holtby (2.38).  His save percentage (.921) is tops among that same group of Caps goalies, a fraction of a point better than Braden Holtby.

Cheerless’ Take…

Another way to look at Grubauer’s season last year is how he started and how he finished.  In neither case was it good.  In his first five games he was 2-2-1, 2.79, .896.  In his last five games he was 0-4-0, 3.37, .872.  In his middle dozen games he was 6-3-0, 1.46, .960.  And, he was fine in a relief role in games, but in full games played his numbers were worse.  In six games in which he did not play a full game he had a goals against average of 1.17 and a save percentage of .952.  In games in which he played start to finish (or was pulled late for an extra skater) the numbers were 2.51, .913.

The Big Question… Is Philipp Grubauer a “bad luck” goalie?

Philipp Grubauer and Braden Holtby have almost indistinguishable career save percentages, the difference found only in the fourth decimal place (Grubauer is .9210, Holtby is .9209).  However, while Holtby has a record of 149-60-25 in his 244 games to date, Grubauer is a comparatively lackluster 15-15-6 in his 42 games to date.  Last season, Grubauer suffered poor scoring support.  In 16 games in which he played the whole game he was the beneficiary of 37 goals worth of support (2.31 per game), and 14 of those goals came in just two games – a 7-4 win over Edmonton on October 23^rd and a 7-1 win over Ottawa on January 10^th.  He had two or fewer goals of support 12 times and watched as his counterpart pitched a shutout at the other end of the rink in his last three full games.  He has had some issues of inconsistency and, in fact, arguably took a half-step backward last year in taking on a bigger role, but he was often dealt a difficult hand to play, too.

In the end…

It is highly unlikely the Caps’ Stanley Cup hopes hinge on the performance of a backup goaltender (with apologies to the fans of Matt Murray in Pittsburgh).  Given the Caps’ depth and skill level, it would seem unlikely that the Caps need an elite level of performance from Grubauer to reach the playoffs.  If the Caps are struggling in that regard, they have much larger issues that depending on a backup goalie as the season’s savior are unlikely to address. 

Grubauer’s role is simple, compared to that of just about any other skater of goalie.  His role is primarily two-fold.  First, he has to provide credible relief for Braden Holtby over the rigors of an 82-game season. He averaged about eight days between appearances last season (including games in which he replaced Holtby).  The second, lesser role is to stop the bleeding within games in which Holtby is off his game and is relieved.  To the extent he can do that, he gives the Caps the chance to steal a game or two.  This is not likely to make much of a difference in the standings, but it is important in establishing the ability to come from behind, even when the Caps and Holtby have poor starts to games. 

Philipp Grubauer might be on the brink of taking a larger place in the community of Caps’ goaltenders, but he is still significantly lacking in game experience at this level.  There will be no rushing that in his backup role, but given the talent the Caps have at the top of the goaltending depth chart, there is little need to rush his development, either. 

Projection: 22 games, 10-8-2, 2.29, .920

Photo: Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Defensemen: Nate Schmidt

Nate Schmidt

“Enthusiasm is the mother of effort, and without it nothing great was ever achieved.”

-- Ralph Waldo Emerson

If you can find a picture of Washington Capitals defenseman Nate Schmidt in which he is not grinning, keep it.  They are rare and might be worth something someday.  You could go back, perhaps to the dawn of franchise history, and not find a Capital who included a smile on all but permanent display.  You almost can hear him utter the famous Ernie Banks quote about his love and enthusiasm for the game… “It’s a beautiful day for a game, let’s play two.”

It even goes back to when he was a sophomore at St. Cloud Cathedral High School in Minnesota, an outfielder/pitcher whose favorite TV show was “Family Guy (according to the Caps media guide, it still is).”

And why shouldn’t he be happy?  He was not drafted by an NHL team, but he played three seasons in his home state for one of the storied programs in NCAA hockey at the University of Minnesota.  He signed a free agent contract with the Washington Capitals, and split time between the Caps and the AHL Hershey Bears for two seasons before sticking full-time with the Caps last season.  In 2015-2016, Schmidt set a personal best in games played (72), tied a career-high in goals (two), tripled his career assist total (14; he had seven going into the season), and more than doubled his career point total (16; he had ten when the season started.

It was also a case of the more ice time Schmidt got in 2015-2016, the better the Caps did.   Washington was 18-3-3 in games where Schmidt skated more than 20 minutes, 31-15-4 in games in which he skated less than 20 minutes.  That might be an effect of the Caps leading in games and having more of a luxury to give a third pair defenseman like Schmidt more ice time than they would if they were trying to come from behind, but neither Schmidt nor the Caps suffered with more ice time.

Fearless’ Take…

Schmidt has not been a dominant possession player, but he has been a consistent one.  In each of his three seasons with the Caps, he finished the year over 50 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5.  He was at 50.60 percent in 2015-2016, fourth among Caps defensemen with at least 100 5-on-5 minutes (numbers from Corsica.hockey).  And that smile isn’t plastered on his face all the time.  Schmidt logged the first two fighting majors of his career in 2015-2016, one against Tampa Bay’s J.T. Brown on December 12^th, the other against Arizona’s Max Domi on April 2^nd.  They were the first fights for Schmidt since his USHL days in 2009-2010.  He had only six penalty minutes all season outside of those fights, and he had only two penalty minutes at home all season, and that was a delay-of-game penalty against Montreal the day after Christmas.  Small wonder he got a third-place vote in the Lady Byng voting for most gentlemanly player, even with the two fights.

Cheerless’ Take…

Another case of, “yeah, and what did you do during the playoffs?”  Ten games, one point (an assist), minus-3, no shots on goal in six of the ten games in which he did play, just nine minutes of ice time in Game 5 against Pittsburgh in the second round, and he was benched for the Caps’ next game –their last of the season – the overtime loss to Pittsburgh in Game 6.  It was an extension of the tail end of his regular season in which he was 0-5-5, minus-1 in his last 35 games.  That’s 0-6-6, minus-5 in the last 45 games in which he played last season.

The Big Question… Is Nate Schmidt now a permanent fixture on the Caps’ blue line?

In three years with the Caps, Nate Schmidt has made modest progress toward becoming a permanent member of the top-six on defense.  His games played progressed from 29 to 39 to 72, and he got his first taste of postseason action last spring.  There is, however, the matter of his performance over the last half of the season.  It was not a major step backward, but his progress seemed to have stalled.  Perhaps it was a product of the season’s length, his playing in more games in the NHL that in his first two seasons combined and more minutes (about three more minutes per game at even strength than in 2014-2015).

It is all but certain that Schmidt will be penciled in on the third pair and will fill that role on a regular basis, absent injuries.  It is a situation that should suit the Caps and Schmidt well, the team being talented and deep enough to accommodate Schmidt’s continued progress up the ladder of development and experience.

In the end…

Nate Schmidt is a “young” 25 years old in terms of his NHL experience to date – 140 regular season and ten postseason games.  He has a good foundation under him, and he has made progress in sufficient amounts and timing to suggest that he is not done improving.  This season will open a little bit differently for Schmidt in that there is little question at the top that he’s in the top-six.  Given the Caps’ situation once they get past the top-six, it will be important to solidify his position and improve on the gains he has made.

The biggest part of that is going to be, as it will be for a number of young Capitals who underperformed late in the season and in the playoffs, avoiding a late-season swoon.  A third-pair defenseman is not going to carry the club for any length of time, if at all, but neither can he disappear at that time of year, either.  If Nate Schmidt can make timely, if not a high volume, of contributions late in the season and into the spring, he and the Caps will have a lot to smile about over next summer.

Projection: 74 games, 4-14-18, plus-11

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2016-2017 Previews -- Defensemen: Brooks Orpik

Brooks Orpik

Ah, when to the heart of man

Was it ever less than a treason

To go with the drift of things,

To yield with a grace to reason,

And bow and accept the end

Of a love or a season?”

― Robert Frost

Thirteen seasons, 822 regular season games, 112 postseason games , ten trips to the playoffs, two trips to the Stanley Cup finals, one Stanley Cup.  Since he played his first full season in the NHL in the 2003-2004 season, only a dozen defensemen have appeared in more regular season games, and only ten defensemen have appeared in more postseason games.   But when the 2015-2016 season ended, Orpik was in the top 15 on another list.  He was the 13^th oldest defenseman in the NHL.

Orpik’s 13^th season in the NHL was unusual for its brevity.  The 41 games he played was the fewest he played in any season since he appeared in six games for the Pittsburgh Penguins in his first year in the NHL, in 2002-2003.  He missed 40 games to a cracked femur.  Then, in the playoffs, he missed three games as the result of a hit he took from Ryan White in the first round against the Philadelphia Flyers, then he missed three more games in the second round against the Pittsburgh Penguins for his hit on Penguin defenseman Olli Maatta.

At the highest level, Orpik’s absence did not reflect well on his presence in the lineup.  In the regular season, the Caps were 26-11-4 with Orpik in the lineup, 30-7-4 in his absence.  The club did better with Orpik in the postseason lineup, though, going 4-2 when he was in the lineup, 2-4 when he was not.

His three goals in 41 games did not make him a Bobby Orr as an offensive defenseman, but the 0.07 goals per game was a career best, more than doubling his previous per-game goal scoring high (0.03 goals-per-game with Pittsburgh in 2005-2006).

Fearless’ Take…

Brooks Orpik was the only defenseman in the league appearing in at least half of his team’s games who averaged at least 3.0 hits and at least 2.5 blocked shots per game.  He also had his personal best season of Corsi-for at 5-on-5, posting a 52.55 percent mark, a substantial improvement over the 49.64 percent mark he recorded for the Caps in 2014-2015 and second-best among Capitals defensemen last season (numbers from Corsica.hockey).  Only once in 41 games did he post a plus-minus worse than a minus-1 (it was a doozy – a minus-4 in a 5-2 loss to the New York Rangers on November 3^rd).  And there was an odd fact about his presence in the lineup.  The Caps did not lose a game in regulation in which he skated more than 21 minutes (12-0-3). 

Cheerless’ Take…

Quality of competition seemed to be an issue for Orpik this season.  In 11 regular season games against Eastern Conference playoff qualifiers he did not have a point and was a minus-5.  Add in his performance in six playoff games, and it is no points and a minus-8 in 17 games against playoff-qualifying teams.  And, for a player whose contributions tend to the more physical and defensive side of the ledger, it did not seem to matter much.  In games in which Orpik recorded four or more hits, the Caps were 11-4-2, 15-7-2 when he recorded fewer than four hits.  Washington was 10-4-2 when Orpik recorded three or more blocked shots, 11-7-2 when he had fewer than three blocked shots.

The Big Question… Can Brooks Orpik be the physical and emotional anchor of the defense?

When Brooks Orpik was signed to a five-year/$27.5 million contract on July 1, 2014, Capitals general manager Brian MacLellan said, “We feel Brooks’ leadership and experience will greatly enhance our defense for years to come. Brooks plays tough minutes against the opposition’s best players.”  Assistant coach Todd Reirden said, “His maturity, he’s won Stanley Cup, he’s been a part of good defensive team and his leadership I think would be a great fit for any team. I’d like it to be here as well.”  He was a player with more than 700 regular season games on his resume and two trips to the Stanley Cup finals, winning once.  And, he was durable, never having appeared in fewer than 60 games in a full season in his career, save for the six game cup-o’-coffee he got as a first year player.

However, his appearing in only 41 regular season games last season due to a serious leg injury, then missing three playoff games due to a head injury in the postseason, when combined with his age (36 on Opening Night) raises the question of whether he can be that night-in, night-out anchor of stable and dependable defensive play this season he was counted on being when that contract was signed.  This could be an important issue for the Capitals, whose talent on the blue line drops off rather precipitously after the top-six and is not especially deep after their top-seven.

In the end…

The 2015-2016 season might be the best opportunity for the Capitals to win a Stanley Cup for a while.  They have the mix of skill and grit, of youth and experience, to make that a possibility.  For Brooks Orpik, it could be his last career opportunity to win a Stanley Cup.  Looming over this season for him is the possibility that he would be exposed in the expansion draft when the new Las Vegas entry in the NHL begins to assemble its roster. 

On this team, he could very well be given third-pair minutes, depending on how the Caps choose to use Dmitry Orlov.  It would provide some relief from stiffer competition, and the fewer minutes (based on last year’s 5-on-5 ice time among Caps defensemen, perhaps 1-2 minutes per game) could leave Orpik perhaps just a bit fresher in the spring.  In any case, for at least one more season, Brooks Orpik will be doing no bowing to or accepting of his career winding down.

Projection: 60 games, 1-7-8, plus-10

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America