The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 79: Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs, April 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their longest road trip of the season on Tuesday night when they face the Toronto Maple Leafs at Air Canada Centre in the Caps’ penultimate road game of the regular season.  The Caps clinched a winning road trip with their 3-2 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets on Sunday night, but they would like to make it four out of five on the trip, as well as avenge a 4-2 loss on the ACC ice sheet last November 26th.

The Maple Leafs come into this game as one of the most exciting stories of the 2016-2017 season, angling to return to the postseason for the first time since the 2012-2013 season and for only the second time since the 2004-2005 lockout.  Toronto carried a three-game winning streak through the weekend and into their game against the Buffalo Sabres on Monday night in advance of the Caps’ visit.  It is part of a run in which the Leafs are 10-2-1 over their last 13 games, carrying them into third place in the Atlantic Division, one point behind the Boston Bruins with two games in hand on the B’s (pending the result against the Sabres).

By now, many hockey fans are aware that the Maple Leafs have dressed nine rookie skaters this season, seven of them appearing in at least 50 games in the blue and white.  Six of them have at least 25 points, and five of them have at least 10 goals.  And nowhere are they stronger among their rookies than at forward.  Auston Matthews (38-28-66), William Nylander (22-37-59), and Mitch Marner (18-41-59) rank first and tied for third in points, respectively, among the league’s rookies through Sunday’s games.

Matthews’ 38 goals this season is the third highest total for a rookie since the 2004-2005 lockout, and it is a Toronto franchise record for a rookie.  Only Alex Ovechkin (52) and Sidney Crosby (39), both in 2005-2006, surpassed Matthews’ rookie goal total.  His 66 points is the ninth highest rookie point total in that span of time and with three more points would tie Brad Boyes (2005-2006) and Nicklas Backstrom (2007-2008) for seventh place on that list.  He heads into the weekday games on a roll, recording goals in each of his last four games (five in all) and in six of his last eight contests (seven goals).  He has point in eight straight games, tying his longest streak of the season (Games 31-38 in late December and early January).  If there is an odd thing about Matthews’ record this season, it is that more ice time is not necessarily a good thing.  In games in which he skated 17:30 or more, Toronto is 13-18-11.  The Leafs are 25-6-4 when he skated less than 17:30.  He is 1-2-3 in two games against the Caps this season.

William Nylander’s first full season in the NHL (he played in 22 games in 2015-2016) has been as productive as Leafs fans might have hoped when he was taken with the eighth overall pick in the 2014 draft.  His 22 goals ranks tied for 14th (with Gus Bodnar in 1943-1944) all-time on the Toronto rookie goal scoring list.  It is not inconceivable that he could finish in the top ten, surpassing Sergei Berezin’s 25 goals as a rookie in the 1996-1997 season.  He has been a point-making machine in the last two months.  Since February 4th, when he scored a hat trick in a 6-5 win over Boston, Nylander is 12-16-28 in 28 games, and he has points in 13 of his last 14 contests.  Nylander, though, is another player for whom more ice time might not be the best situation.  In games in which he skated 16:28 or more this season, Toronto is 9-11-11.  The Leafs are 28-13-4 in the other 45 games in which he appeared.  He is 0-1-1, minus-1, in two career games against the Capitals.

Mitch Marner is the third member of the top trio for the Leafs, another recent high draft pick doing well (fourth overall in 2015).  Although he might be less heralded than either Matthews or Nylander, he has been no less productive.  His 18 goals rank just sixth on the club overall, but five of them are game-winners, and he is third on the club in power play points (19).  With another two goals, he would become the 26th rookie in Maple Leafs’ history to finish with 20 or more goals.  With another point, he could become just the fourth (or fifth, depending on what Nylander does) rookie in Toronto history to finish their first season with 60 or more points, joining Matthews (66 points so far), Peter Ihnicak (66 points in 1982-1983) and Gus Bodnar (62 points in 1943-1944).  But like his two fellow rookie travelers, more ice time has been an issue this season.  The Leafs are 5-10-7 in games in which Marner skated more than 17:30, 31-13-6 in the other 50 games in which he dressed.  He is, relative to Matthews and Nylander, in a bit of a slump at the moment.  After putting together a five-game points streakto start March, he is 1-4-5 in his last ten contests.  Marner is 1-3-4, minus-2, in two career games against Washington.

1.   Since March 7th, when the Leafs embarked on their 10-2-1 run, they have the fourth-most points earned in the league (21). St. Louis (24), Anaheim (23), and Carolina…yes, Carolina (22) are the only ones with more.

2.  Toronto is tied for fourth in total goals scored in that span (44, with Edmonton), trailing Carolina (49), Philadelphia (47), and Boston (46). Toronto and Edmonton lead in average goals per game over that span (3.38).

3.  The Maple Leafs have the third-best power play in the league over those 13 games (31.4 percent), trailing the Caps (31.7 percent) and Buffalo (39.3 percent).

4.  Odd fact… Toronto has just 11 wins this season when outshooting their opponents, 26 wins when they are outshot. You might think that as prolific and precocious a team as the Leafs would have more games outshooting their opponents that being outshot.  They do not; they have 30 games outshooting their opponents (11-12-7), while having 46 games being outshot by opponents (26-12-8).  They are 1-0-0 when having the same number of shots on goal as their opponent.

5.  Even with their recent success in the win-loss columns, Toronto is no possession beast. They rank 26th in overall shot attempt shares (47.87 percent) over those 13 games in their 10-2-1 run (numbers from NHL.com).

1.   In the 2017 portion of the season, Washington has played 25 games against teams currently playoff eligible. They have a record of 18-5-2 against those clubs, 11-2-1 against Eastern teams and 7-3-1 against Western teams.

2.  In those 25 games, the Caps outscored their opponents, 88-63 (3.52/game – 2.52/game) and outshot their opponents by 748-717 (29.92/game to 28.68/game).

3.  On special teams, the Caps have a 24.7 percent power play and an 81.7 percent penalty kill in those 25 games. They scored two shorthanded goals and allowed one.

4.  Only once in those 25 games against current playoff-eligible teams did the Caps lose consecutive games – March 9th and 12th to the San Jose Sharks (4-2) and to the Anaheim Ducks (5-2). The Caps are 11-0-1 against those eligible teams at home, 7-5-1 on the road.

5.  After going five straight games against those clubs allowing four or more power play opportunities, the Caps have allowed just 11 power play chances in their last five games against playoff eligible teams, four times allowing two or fewer.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Toronto:  Frederik Andersen

The Maple Leafs have dressed four goalies this season – Jhonas Enroth, Antoine Bibeau, and Curtis McElhinney have combined to appear in 19 games.  However, as much as Toronto has realized from their class of rookie skaters, how successful they are in the postseason could come down to how well Frederik Anderson plays in goal.  Andersen is just the third goaltender for the Leafs since the 2004-2005 lockout to reach the 30-win mark.  His 32 wins this season are one short of Vesa Toskala’s 33 wins in 2007-2008 and five shot of Andrew Raycroft’s 37 wins in 2006-2007.  He and Jonathan Bernier in 2013-2014 are the only goalies playing at least 2,500 minutes in a season to record a goals against average of under 2.75 and a save percentage over .915.  Andersen might be the best of an iffy lot of goaltenders over the last dozen or so seasons for Toronto, but he would appear to justify the description as “best.”  He has not lost a decision in regulation since March 14th (7-2 to Florida), going 5-0-1 (one no-decision), 2.03, .943, with one shutout in seven appearances.  Andersen is 2-0-1, 2.67, .909, with one shutout in three career appearances against the Capitals.

Washington: Brooks Orpik

Brooks Orpik has had an odd sawtooth patter to his offense over the past five years, including this one.  In 2012-2013, with the Pittsburgh Penguins, he did not record a goal in 46 games.  The following year he had a pair in 72 games for the Pens.  Then he moved to Washington and did not record a goal in 78 games.  Last season, in a year cut back to 41 games due to injuries, he still managed to record three goals, a career high.  This season, alas, he is once more without a goal.  What is odd about this season’s absence of a goal on Orpik’s scoring line is that he already has a career high in shots on goal (81), surpassing the 66 shots he had on goal for the Caps two years ago, also without a goal.  He does have, however, 14 assists, the eighth season he hit double digits in helpers over his 14-year career.  His points have come largely at home this season (10 of his 14 assists).  Orpik has not had a point on the road since January 31^st, an assist in a 3-2 loss to the New York Islanders in Brooklyn.  In 39 career games against the Maple Leafs, Orpik is looking for his first goal.  He has nine assists and in minus-6.

In the end…

It would be natural for a team to experience a bit of a letdown after the hard-fought win in Columbus on Sunday evening.  Toronto is the kind of team that can take advantage of that with the offensive skill they possess.  This shakes out as one of those “discipline” kinds of games, where the Caps dictate pace, bending the Maple Leafs to a style of their choosing.  It is something that the Caps have been pretty good at in the 2017 portion of the season, especially against the better teams in the league.  And after years of waiting, Toronto fans can say that this edition of the Maple Leafs is among the better teams in the league.  Beware.

Capitals 5 – Maple Leafs 3

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 78: Washington Capitals 3 - Columbus Blue Jackets 2

The Washington Capitals and Columbus Blue Jackets brought the playoff intensity on Sunday night in Columbus with the top spot in the Metropolitan Division, if not the entire league, on the line.  The Caps raced out to a 3-0 lead in the first 30 minutes, then held on for a 3-2 win to push the Blue Jackets into third place in the Division, six points behind the Caps and one point behind the Pittsburgh Penguins, who defeated the Carolina Hurricanes earlier in the day.

After a scoreless first period, T.J. Oshie got the Caps on the board in the second minute of the second period.  Oshie ran down a long cross-ice pass from Nicklas Backstrom, took the puck off the right wing wall, cut against the grain behind two Columbus defenders, and snapped a backhand past goalie Sergei Bobrovsky just 72 seconds into the period to make it 1-0.

Less than two minutes later, the Caps doubled their lead.  Kevin Shattenkirk go the play started by feeding Lars Eller in the neutral zone.  Eller circled to his right to gain the offensive zone, then carried the puck around the back of the net.  From there, Eller spun and found Andre Burakovsky filling in behind him.  Burakovsky sniped a shot over Bobrovsky’s left shoulder, just inside the post and under the crossbar to make it 2-0, 2:56 into the period.

Washington made it 3-0 mid-way through the period when Burakovsky intercepted a Jack John son pass just inside the Caps’ blue line, then took off in the other direction with Matt Niskanen on his left.  After crossing the Columbus blue line, he eased off, then floated a pass between Johnson and Sam Gagner to Niskanen cutting to the net.  Niskanen snapped a shot that beat Bobrovsky on the glove side, and it was 3-0 Caps at the 10:05 mark.

The Caps took that 3-0 lead into the third period and almost gave it all away.  Columbus got one back in the tenth minute of the period when Johnson took a pass from Alexander Wennberg as he was exiting the defensive zone, skated around John Carlson at the Caps’ blue line, did the same to Tom Wilson in deep, and beat goalie Braden Holtby at the 9:22 mark to make it a 3-1 game.

Kyle Quincey got Columbus within a goal six minutes later, capitalizing on heavy pressure in the Caps’ end.  Keeping the Caps pinned in, Brandon Saad circled out through the left wing circle and fed Quincey at the left point.  Quincey’s floater through a maze of players hit nothing until it found the back of the net at 15:33 of the period to make it 3-2.

Braden Holtby stood tall in net after that, staving off a late Columbus flurry in front of his net to secure the 3-2 win and strengthen the grip the Caps have on the top spot in the division and league standings.

Other stuff…

-- At one point, when the Caps had a 3-0 lead, 15 different Columbus skaters were minus-1.  Only Brandon Saad (who finished plus-2), Josh Anderson, and Boone Jenner missed out on that fun among the 18 skaters.

-- Beating trends… Columbus came into the game with a 30-6-2 record this season when Alexander Wennberg had a point and had not lost a game in regulation when Jack Johnson scored a goal (3-0-1).  Well, that’s now 30-7-2, and 3-1-1.

-- Andre Burakovsky had a goal and an assist, his first multi-point game he had a goal and an assist in a 5-2 win over the New Jersey Devils on January 26^th.  He went 13 games and a hand injury without one.

-- It was quite a jump start for Burakovsky, who skated just four shifts and 3:02 in the first period without a single mark in any category on his line of the score sheet.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov had perhaps his most out-of-character game of the season.  He had one shot on goal (his only shot attempt) and no points.  But he did have five credited hits to lead the team and won nine of 12 faceoffs (he came into the game winning 43.4 percent of his draws).

-- As a group, the Caps won 34 of 54 faceoffs (63.0 percent).  No Caps taking more than one faceoff was under 50 percent.  Losing three of the last four draws they took in the last 1:01 made things a bit more interesting than they had to be.

-- Alex Ovechkin skated just 15:27, his lowest amount of ice time since he skated 14:54 in a 6-4 win over the Anaheim Ducks on February 11^th.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had an assist.  That makes helpers in seven of his last 11 games, over which he is 2-15-17, plus-2.

-- Braden Holtby held the Blue Jackets to two goals on 37 shots faced.  It was the first time in six road games that he allowed fewer than three goals and his heaviest shot volume on the road this season since he faced 45 shots in Winnipeg in a 3-2 win last November 1^st.

-- Columbus won the possession battle, out-attempting the Caps, 57-41 at 5-on-5 (58.16 percent Corsi-for), and outshooting the Caps, 30-26 at fives (numbers from Corsica.hockey).

In the end…

Imagine seven games in a playoff series like this.  It would be grueling for the players, no doubt, but thrilling for fans of both teams (although we’d prefer to see a four sleeper game series in which the Caps stomp the Blue Jackets).  This might be thought of as “Game 0” of that potential playoff matchup. It had that kind of close-quarter, nasty edge feel to it.  That the Caps could go into Columbus and take the crowd out of the game for 40 minutes and take advantage of opportunities, then grind out a win against a hard-charging team late speaks well for their readiness for that environment.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 25

Week 25 for the Washington Capitals was one that might be described as a three course meal.  They had a tasty appetizer, followed by a satisfying entrée, and ended it with deflated souffle.  It might be the stale cake that fans remember most, but let’s not complain about the entire meal.

Record: 2-1-0

The schedule for Week 25 called for three games to open a season-long five game road trip. It is a trip that will take the Caps through five cities, four states, one Canadian province, and three time zones.  The leading leg of it took the Caps on a roundabout route from Minnesota to Colorado to Arizona against three teams in various states of distress.  The Caps faced a Minnesota Wild team that was 2-9-1 in their previous 11 games before facing the Caps.  Washington took a two-goal lead into the last five minutes of the game, but needed overtime to subdue the Wild after losing that two goal lead in the last five minutes.  In Colorado they faced an Avalanche team with the worst record in the league, by far, and with a 3-12-0 record in their previous 15 games before facing the Caps.  The Caps had a three-goal lead late in the second period and almost gave it all back before scoring an empty net goal in the last two minutes of a 5-3 win. 

They never got the chance to hold a lead against the Arizona Coyotes, the team with the second-worst record in the league, in the last game of the week.  The Coyotes scored three goals in the first 14 minutes of the contest, held off a challenge by the Caps mid-way through the game, and then dispatched the Caps in a 6-3 decision.

Offense: 4.33/game (season: 3.23 /game; rank: 2nd)

Washington had no problems scoring goals in Week 25.  They did it against struggling teams, but they did do it.  The Wild had allowed 39 goals over their previous 11 games before facing the Caps, and the Avalanche and Coyotes had the two worst scoring defenses in the league.  It was not surprising that an offense as deep and skilled as the Caps averaged more than four goals for the week.  The two games in which the Caps scored five goals to open the week were the first instances of consecutive games with five or more goals since the put together a four-game streak of such games in Games 53-56 in early February.  It was the first time they recorded five or more goals in consecutive games on the road since they scored seven goals in each of Games 44 and 45 against Pittsburgh and St. Louis in mid-January last season.

On an individual level, Alex Ovechkin led the Caps in goal scoring for the week with three, all of them coming in the 5-4 overtime win over Minnesota in the first game of the week.  It was his 17th career hat trick, the most in the NHL since he came into the league in 2005-2006 (Eric Staal has 13).  In your odd Ovechkin fact of the day, those 17 career hat tricks are as many as any NHL player has accumulated since the 1994-1995 season.  Former Cap Peter Bondra had 17 hat tricks from 1994 to 2004.

T.J. Oshie was the other Capital with a multiple goal week (two), and he had both of his goals in that same game against the Wild.  It was Oshie’s sixth multi-goal game of the season for the Caps and second in five games, since recording his only hat trick of the season in a 5-3 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on March 18^th. 

Marcus Johansson had himself a whale of a week.  With a goal and seven assists, his eight points led the Caps in scoring, twice as many points as any other player.   The eight points made him a 50-point player for the first time in his seven-year career (23-33-56), and he finished the week on a five-game points streak (1-10-11). He is the 15^th player and the seventh on the current Caps team to have recorded at least one 50-point season since the 2004-2005 lockout.

Defense: 4.33/game (season: 2.22 /game; rank: 1st)

It was an odd week for the Caps on defense, and not in a good way.  There was the 13 goals in three games, which was bad enough.  But there was the odd result for the week of what happened in terms of shots attempts allowed.  The Caps had a very nice week overall with a 53.65 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5, fueled by holding opponents to a combined 51.23 shots per 60 5-on-5 minutes.  But how they got there was bizarre.  The Caps were underwater in both of their wins in Week 25 – 36.67 percent against Minnesota and 49.49 percent against Colorado – both of them wins.  They dominated Arizona at fives in the last game of the week with a 66.09 percent Corsi-for and holding the Coyotes to 41.32 shots per 60 5-on-5 minutes (numbers from Corsica.hockey).   In all three games, the Caps lost the goals for and against at fives, 3-1 to Minnesota, 3-2 to Colorado, and 4-2 to Arizona.

What seems a bit more revealing is the overall shot attempts in close situations.  The Caps were under 50 percent for the week in their win at Minnesota (38.24 percent) and in the loss to Arizona (46.15 percent).  They did manage to get above 50 percent in their win over Colorado (55.0 percent), but it was not enough to save the week (47.00 percent over the three games; numbers from NHL.com).

Goaltending: 4.29 / .862 (season:  2.12 / .923 / 11 shutouts)

It was not a good week between the pipes, especially for Braden Holtby.  He got most of two game’ worth of work and struggled with it, going 1-1-0, 5.22, .818 in 115 minutes of work, getting pulled from and then sent back into the nets against Arizona to close the week.  He ended the week with an unenviable recent road record, going 2-3-0, 4.50, .843 in his last five games on the road.  It was a case of having poor first periods and going downhill from there.  His .857 first period save percentage was the only period above .800 for the week, going .789 in the second periods and .786 in the third periods of the two games he played.  He did stop the only shot he faced in the overtime win over Minnesota to open the week.

Philipp Grubauer got the middle game of the week and the last 6:48 of the second period against Arizona in relief of Holtby.  His performance was uneven, but certainly more solid than Holtby’s.  He had healthy save percentages in the first (.929) and third periods (.933) against Colorado, but his second period performance (.833) was off, and he had the odd experience of not having to face a shot on goal in that 6:48 he played against Arizona.

Power Play: 6-for-8 / 75.5 percent (season:  23.6 percent; rank: 3rd)

If there is one thing truly clicking for the Caps these days, it is the power play.  Washington had its best week of the season in goals scored (six) and efficiency (75.0 percent) of any week this season.  Half of those six goals came from Alex Ovechkin in recording his hat trick against Minnesota in the first game of the week.  He managed that feat on the only three power play shots he took in that game.  John Carlson, Marcus Johansson, and Nicklas Backstrom had the other three power play goals for the week.  Eight different players had power play points, Johansson leading that group with five points on the man advantage. 

It was an especially efficient week for the Caps on the power play.  They scored on half of their shots (6-for-12) and recorded 12 shots in just 8:08 of total power play time.  The Caps were successful in both of their power play opportunities this season, the first time they scored two power play goals in any of the 21 instances in which they had two power play opportunities.

Penalty Killing: 8-for-10/ 80.0 percent (season: 84.2 percent; rank: 7th)

It was a fair week on the penalty kill that might have ended superbly, but for an iffy effort against Arizona in the last game of the week.  Washington killed off all five shorthanded situations they faced against Minnesota, then skated off another three against Colorado.  With the chance for a perfect week, the Caps ended up allowing power play goals on both Coyote power plays to end the week, a disappointing outcome against a team that finished the week 26 in the league in power play efficiency overall and 23^rd at home.

Those first two games were almost a clinic in penalty killing, holding the Wild to just four unsuccessful shots on goal in 9:53 of power play time, then holding the Avalanche to just three shots in six minutes of power play time.  Sure, the Avs had the worst home power play in the league to end the week, but the Wild finished the week as the second best home power play in the NHL.  It made it that much more disappointing to allow the Coyotes two goals on two shots in 2:41 with Arizona possessing the league’s eighth-worst home power play.

Faceoffs: 82-for-170 / 48.2 percent (season: 49.9 percent; rank: 14th)

Overall, the Caps had a difficult week in the circle, although they did improve as the week wore on, finishing with a 35.3 percent winning percentage in the first game of the week against Minnesota, then following it up with a 50.0 percent effort against Colorado, and then winning 57.1 percent of their draws against Arizona.  It was a different story by zone.  The Caps won 53.2 percent of their neutral zone draws for the week, but lost at both ends of the ice – 40.8 percent in the offensive zone and 49.2 percent in the defensive zone.

Three of the big four (ten or more faceoffs for the week) were at 50 percent or better for the week – Evgeny Kuznetsov (50.0), Jay Beagle (52.2) and Nicklas Backstrom (54.8).  Only Lars Eller among that group was under 50 percent for the week (43.8 percent).

Goals by Period:

It was tight for the Caps in Week 25 in terms of goals by period, finishing the week with a minus-1 goal differential in the first and third periods, while finishing with a plus-1 differential in the second period and overtime.  That first period differential was positive until allowing three goals to Arizona to put themselves in a deep hole out of which they could not climb in the last game of the week.  And it was the minus-1 that the Caps had against Minnesota in the third period of their game that sent the context to overtime before the Caps won.

Still, the Caps did maintain their positive goal differential in all three periods for the season, and overtime, and they even improved a bit on their comparatively weak second period (plus-2 for the season).

In the end…

Week 25 was the 17^th winning week for the Caps this season and their third in a row, over which they are 7-2-1.  Still, that Arizona game sticks out, for falling behind so deeply and so quickly to start the game, for allowing six goals to a team that had trouble scoring against air in March, and for leaving two points on the table that could have given them a stranglehold on the top spot in the league standings.  It makes for a bit more urgency in the Caps’ Sunday evening contest in Columbus against the Blue Jackets.  That made Week 25 a week that was good, but one that could have been so much better.  Certainly better than the deflated souffle the Caps were left with to finish it.

Three Stars of the Week:

• First Star: Marcus Johansson (1-7-8, even, 1-4-5 on the power play, five-game points streak to end the week)
• Second Star: Alex Ovechkin (3-1-4, minus-1, hat trick, three power play goals on three power play shots, ten shots on goal 16 shot attempts, five hits)
• Third Star: Kevin Shattenkirk (0-3-3, plus-1, seven shots on goal, ten shot attempts, two hits, two takeaways, nine blocked shots)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 78: Washington Capitals at Columbus Blue Jackets, April 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals enter the home stretch of their season-long five-game road trip on Sunday with a visit to Nationwide Arena in Columbus, Ohio, to face the Blue Jackets.  This last of five regular season meetings between the Caps and Columbus will decide the season series between the clubs, each team having won a game in regulation and a game in extra time this season.  It will be the Caps’ second visit to Ohio this season, their last visit ending in an unpleasant 2-1 overtime loss to the Blue Jackets.

The teams met less than two weeks ago, the Caps dealing Columbus a 2-1 Gimmick loss at Verizon Center on March 23^rd.  Since then, the Blue Jackets are 2-1-1, losing their last two contests and dropping a point to the Caps in the standings.  Four points behind the Caps with five games to play, this might be considered a must-win for Columbus if they are to maintain any hope of catching Washington in the race for the top spot in the Eastern Conference and perhaps the Presidents Trophy with the league’s top record.

The Blue Jackets have struggled to score in their four games since facing the Caps, getting a total of six goals in those four games and being held to a single goal in three of those contests.  Six different Blue Jackets have one goal apiece in that stretch, while four have two points apiece.  One of those players is Kyle Quincey (1-1-2), who joined Columbus at the trading deadline in February, sent to the Blue Jackets by the New Jersey Devils for defenseman Dalton Prout. Columbus is Quincey’s fifth NHL team, having also skated for the Detroit Red Wings, Colorado Avalanche, and Los Angeles Kings in his other stops.  I took Quincey quite a while to get a crooked number on his scoring line for Columbus, going his first 11 games with the Blue Jackets without a point, extending what would be a 17-game streak without a point that ended when he recorded an assist against the Philadelphia Flyers in a 1-0 win on March 25^th.  Quincey is 1-4-5, minus-5, in 15 career games against the Caps.

Alexander Wennberg is another of those four players with two points in their last four games for the Blue Jackets (1-1-2).  It is part of a career year for Wennberg in games played (76), goals (13), assists (43), points (56), plus-minus (plus-9), and shooting percentage (12.6).  He also has career highs in power play goals (2) and power play assists (20), as well as total shots on goal (103).  He has been in something of a slump recently, though.  He is just 1-3-4, minus-1, in his last 16 games, and when he recorded a point in games last week over Philadelphia and the Buffalo Sabres, it was the first and only time in those 16 games he had points in consecutive games.  Both of those games in which Wennberg recorded points last week were wins, which is not unusual.  Columbus is 30-6-2 in games in which Wennberg has a point this season.  He is 1-4-5, minus-7, in 11 career games against Washington.

Defenseman Jack Johnson is also 1-1-2 in his last four games.  Until Quincey joined the Blue Jackets in March, Johnson was the oldest member of the Columbus blue line (he turned 30 in January).  Now in his 11^th season and sixth with the Blue Jackets, Johnson is third on the franchise’s all-time list in games played by a defenseman (363).  He is also third among the franchise’s defensemen in goals (32), second in assists (110), and second in points (142).  No defenseman in Blue Jacket history has more game-winning goals than Johnson (six).  Despite his all-time high ranking among Columbus in a variety of categories, he is not a particularly prolific scorer from the blue line.  It means that when he does score, it has its benefits.  Columbus is 15-3-2 in the 20 games in which he registered a point this season. Johnson is 4-8-12, minus-4, in 19 career games against the Capitals.

1.  Columbus had a fine start to March, going 8-2-0 to begin the month.  They ended it with a thud, going 2-2-2 in their last six games of the month.  They scored just nine goals in those six games while allowing 12 (not including the Gimmick goal in the loss to the Caps).

2.  Part of the Blue Jackets’ charm this season has been winning one-goal games.  They are third in the league in winning percentage in one-goal games (.595/22-7-8), and in their six-game slide they are still 1-0-2 in one-goal decisions.

3.  Columbus is also one of two teams this season with a .500 or better winning percentage when allowing the game’s first goal (.500/14-11-3; Pittsburgh is .559/19-11-4).  In their 2-2-2 slide, though, they lost both games in which they allowed the first goal, a 5-2 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs and a 3-1 loss to the Chicago Blackhawks.

4.  The Blue Jackets are struggling mightily on the power play.  They are without a power play goal in their last nine games, going 0-for-17.  Four times in those nine games they enjoyed only one or had no power play opportunities.

5.  The Blue Jackets are not an especially effective possession team.  Overall this season, they rank 18^th in the league in total shot attempt percentage-for (49.92 percent; numbers from NHL.com).  However, in their last six games, they rank 27^th (46.07 percent).

1.  Washington has not stayed within the lines this season in terms of the rule book boundaries, ranking fourth overall in minor penalties taken (294).  They have been a lot better about it recently, though.  In their last seven games, over which they are 6-1-0, the Caps are tied for 22^nd in total minor penalties taken (22), and they rank 24^th in total penalty minutes recorded (51).

2.  The Caps can beat you close, and they can beat you up.  They are the only team in the league with a top-five winning percentage in one-goal games (.594/4^th), two-goal games (.688/5^th), and games decided by three or more goals (.724/3^rd).

3.  Washington is very adept at putting teams behind the eight-ball.  They have scored the game’s first goal 54 times in 77 games this season, most in the league, and they are successful when they do.  Their record of 42-7-5 when scoring first is most in wins and best in winning percentage (.778).

4.  Here we are, 77 games into the season, and the Caps are still just one of two teams in the league without a goal scored at 4-on-4 (Carolina is the other).  What makes this fact a bit bizarre is that the Caps are ranked ninth in 4-on-4 ice time this season (83.86 minutes; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

5.  The Caps have ramped up their possession numbers recently.  They rank fourth overall in total shot attempt percentage-for (51.82; numbers from NHL.com), but rank second in their 6-1-0 run of late (56.20, behind Minnesota at 56.60).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Columbus: Scott Hartnell

In the history of the NHL, 20 players have appeared in at least 1,000 games, recorded at least 1,500 minutes in penalties, and scored 300 or more goals.  Scott Hartnell became the 20^th member of that club late last season, and he is only active member of that group.  This season, he skates as the oldest player on the Columbus Blue Jackets roster (he will be 35 years old on April 18^th).  The nine-time 20-goal scorer has slipped a bit in his goal scoring this season, currently sitting at 13 goals, his lowest total for a full season since he had 12 for the Nashville Predators back in 2002-2003, his third season in the league.  He has had an excruciating time of it lately in terms of goal-scoring.  He has not recorded a goal since he had a pair against the Carolina Hurricanes, including the game-winner, in a 3-2 win on January 21^st.  That makes 29 games and counting since his last goal.  All he has on his score sheet is seven assists.  Perhaps a combination of his age, production, and the improvement in skill around him, Hartnell has recorded 15 or more minutes of ice time just five times in 74 games this season, none since November 29^th.  He is averaging just 11:34 over that 29-game streak without a goal and had fewer than ten minutes in three of his last ten games.  Hartnell is 13-13-26, plus-5, in 44 career games against the Caps.

Washington:  Braden Holtby

When Braden Holtby allowed six goals on 25 shots on Friday in a 6-3 loss to the Arizona Coyotes, it was the third time in his career that he allowed six goals in a game, the first time it happened to him since he allowed that many twice in the 2012-2013 season.  It has been a rare occurrence for Holtby, but not as rare as you would think in the NHL.  Goalies have allowed six or more goals 53 times this season (through Friday’s games).   What is of more concern is his recent road record.   In his last five road games, Holtby is 2-3-0, 4.50, .843.  Holtby has been a good, if not great goalie on the road over his last three seasons (11^th in goals against average at 2.39; 15^th in save percentage at .915 among 67 goalies with at least 1,000 minutes), but this latest stretch might be cause for some concern.  In 16 career appearances against Columbus, Holtby is 10-3-2 (one no-decision), 2.52, .911, with one shutout.

In the end…

Columbus must win this game.  Lose, and the chances of overtaking the Caps in the standings evaporate to almost zero (with a regulation win, the Caps would have a six-point lead with four games to play for each team). The Caps want to make a statement.  Win in regulation, or perhaps in extra time for that matter, and they can start making space in the team’s offices for that Presidents Trophy.  It would send a message to an opponent who they could face in the second round of the postseason that the Caps are at or near the top of their game.  Columbus comes into this game staggering a bit.  The Caps come into it off one of their worst performances of the season.  These teams will not be in a good mood on Sunday.  This is as much a “playoff” game as one is likely to see in the regular season.  Caps fans will get a glimpse of just how ready the team is to work in that crucible.

Capitals 3 – Blue Jackets 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 77: Washington Capitals at Arizona Coyotes, March 31st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

If Wednesday is “Hump Day” of the work week, then Friday night in Glendale, Arizona, the Washington Capitals will play “Hump Game” of their five-game road trip.  The Caps will face the Arizona Coyotes, a team they faced and defeated just six days ago, so we’re not going to spend much time rehashing the prognosto we wrote for that game.  But let’s just meander around the barn and see what interesting nuggets we can dig up about this contest…

-- Washington comes into this game having recorded three straight games on the road scoring five or more goals, beating the Lightning in Tampa Bay on March 18th (5-3), the Wild in Minnesota (5-4 in overtime), on March 28th, and the Avalanche in Colorado on Wednesday (5-3).  It might be the first time the Caps beat three teams with singular versions of their mascot names on the road in team history.  But more to our point here, it was the first time the Caps scored five or more goals in three straight road games in more than seven years, not since February 2010.  Oddly enough, they did so and still managed to lose two of the games.  The opened the trio of road contests with a 6-5 win over Rangers in New York, then lost in Montreal, 6-5 in overtime, and lost 6-5 in Ottawa.  The last time they scored five goals in each of four consecutive road games?  December 1992, when they did it against the Islanders (5-3), the Senators (6-5), the Devils (6-2), and the Flyers (5-2).  And just to top that off, two months later they scored 10 goals in consecutive road games, in St. Louis (10-6) and in Los Angeles (10-3).

-- Having lost both ends of a home-and-home since facing the Caps, Arizona is now 1-6-1 in their last eight games.  In six of those games they scored one or no goals.

-- Nicklas Backstrom is the leading point-getter for the Caps in March (3-15-18) and is tied for fourth in the league in scoring for the month.  T.J. Oshie has eight goals in March to lead the club; he’s tied for ninth in the league.

-- Twenty four times this season the Coyotes have been held to one or no goals, ten times in 38 games on home ice.

-- The Caps are second in the league in March on the power play (27.4 percent).  How many guesses would you have needed to come up with “Buffalo” as the league leader for the month (41.7 percent, and no, that is not a typo).

-- Washington has multiple power play goal games in consecutive contests for the first time this season (three against Minnesota on Tuesday, two against Colorado on Wednesday).  It is the first time they did it since scoring two power play goals in Games 45 and 46 in January of last season, against the Rangers and the Blue Jackets.  It is the first time they did it in consecutive road games since they did it three times in a row to end February and open March in 2014, doing it in Florida, in Boston, and in Philadelphia.

-- Alex Ovechkin has goals in three of his last five games, a total of five goals in that span.  If he gets two against Arizona, he will tie Guy Lafleur for 25th place in league history (560 goals).  With a hat trick he would tie Mike Modano for 24th place (561).  If he gets a power play goal, he breaks a tie with Keith Tkachuk for 13th place all-time (currently with 212).  He is second among active players in power play goals, four behind Jaromir Jagr, who played his first game in the NHL during the reign of Augustus Caesar.  If he gets the game-winning goal, he will tie Mats Sundin for ninth place all-time (96).

-- No Coyote has ten points this month (Tobias Rieder has nine).  Ho Coyote has five goals (Alex Goligoski has four).  No Coyote playing in at least ten of the team’s 15 games so far this month is a “plus” player (Anthony Duclair and Christian Dvorak are “even”).

-- Nicklas Backstrom is currently second among active players in assists per game (0.738), wedged between the centers in Pittsburgh, Sidney Crosby (0.824) and Evgeni Malkin (0.714).

-- Washington has five players with at least ten points in March: Nicklas Backstrom (18), Alex Ovechkin (12), Marcus Johansson (11), Kevin Shattenkirk (11), and T. J. Oshie (11).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Arizona:  Max Domi

After a fine rookie season that left him tied for sixth in goals (18), second in assists (34), and third in points (52) among rookies, Max Domi has not had so much a “sophomore slump” as he has had a “second season slide.”  His numbers have not fallen precipitously form his rookie campaign (9-24-33 in 54 games), but neither do they constitute an improvement.  He has struggled with goal scoring all season compared to last, but thinks took a turn since he came back at the beginning of February after missing 23 games with an upper-body injury.  In 28 games since his return, Domi has just four goals, none in his last eight contests.  Head coach Dave Tippett appears inclined to let Domi work through things, though.  For example, in March to date, Domi skated fewer than 16 minutes in a game just twice in 15 contests.  He is 0-2-2, plus-2, in three career games against the Caps.

Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Evgeny Kuznetsov might be a player who is happy to get out on the road.  He had a goal and an assist in Colorado against the Avalanche on Wednesday to lift his scoring line on the road to 11-19-30 in 37 road games this season, third on the team in road scoring, behind Nicklas Backstrom (33 points) and Marcus Johansson (31).  He had been in a bit of a road slump after recording points in four straight road games in February, posting one assist over five games before his two point game against the Avs.  His road performance this season is a bit of a departure from his career totals, which are a bit behind on the road (29-54-83 in 126 games) versus his home record (23-73-96 in 129 home games).  What he does not have is much of a record against Arizona, against whom he is 1-2-3, minus-1, in five career games against the Coyotes.

In the end…

As road trips go, this one sure has the California trip from three weeks ago beat all to hell.  Two wins in two tries, admittedly against teams not at the top of their respective games, but two points are two points, and they all count in the end.  That said, the Caps might not be at the top of their game, either, especially at even strength.  Half of their ten goals are on power plays, leaving them outscored, 7-4 (not including an empty netter) at 5-on-5 in the two games.  They have been outshot overall, 65-55 in the two games, and they are just 45.5 percent on faceoffs.  They have gotten away with sloppy third periods, the one against Colorado perhaps a case of a second game in two days and having to play it at altitude.  Still, there is room for improvement in the Caps’ game, and if they are to extend their winning ways on the road and rack up a seventh straight win, they will have to do just that.

Capitals 5 – Coyotes 2

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 76: Washington Capitals 5 - Colorado Avalanche 3

The Washington Capitals made it two-for-two on their five-game road trip on Wednesday night with a 5-3 win in Denver over the Colorado Avalanche.  It was the power play that propelled the Caps to a win once more, the man advantage situations accounting for two of the team’s goals in the win.

John Carlson got the first of those power play markers early in the first period to start the scoring.  The trailer in what was a 4-on-2 rush into the Avalanche end, Carlson took a feed from Evgeny Kuznetsov and from the high slot snapped a shot past the glove of goalie Calvin Pickard at the four-minute mark to make it 1-0.

Colorado tied the game mid-way through the period when he took a drop-pass from Nathan MacKinnon in the middle of the ice and ripped a shot past the left pad of goalie Philipp Grubauer.  With 11:11 gone in the period, the game was tied.

Not for long.  Barely half a minute later the Caps had the lead back.  Jay Beagle led a fourth line rush into the Colorado end and fed the puck to Tom Wilson on his right as he was crossing the blue line.  Wilson tried to center the puck, but the puck clicked off the stick of defenseman Francois Beauchemin back to Kevin Shattenkirk.  His drive was redirected past Pickard by Beagle at 11:48 to make it a 2-1 game.

Early in the second period, the Caps added to their lead on another power play.  Working the puck low, Marcus Johansson fed Nicklas Backstrom in the corner to the left of Pickard.  Backstrom turned and fed the puck out to Shattenkirk, who walked back along the inside of the blue line.  He fired through a maze of players, and Johansson redirected the puck past Pickard, giving the Caps a 3-1 lead 4:57 into the period.

Six minutes later, the Caps added a goal when Johansson picked up a loose puck at the players benches, carried it down the right side, and fed Kuznetsov, who converted the feed off the near pipe and behind Pickard to make it 4-1, 11:03 into the period.

Then it was Colorado’s turn to strike back quickly, Matt Nieto finishing off a 2-on-1 break to make it a 4-2 game heading to the second intermission.

The Avs closed to within a goal early in the third period on a superb effort by MacKinnon.  Leading a 3-on-2 rush, MacKinnon skated the puck down the middle, weaved the puck past Dmitry Orlov inside the Caps’ blue line, broke in alone on Grubauer, and slipped the puck under his pads 4:29 into the period to make it 4-3.

The Caps got their insurance late in the period when Lars Eller intercepted a pass just inside his own line that Gabriel Landeskog could not handle and fired the puck down the ice into the empty Colorado net at the 18:38 mark to close the scoring in the Caps’ 5-3 win.

Other stuff…

-- The win was the Caps’ sixth in a row, the fourth time this season that they put together a winning streak of six or more games.

-- The five goals made it two in a row recording that many, the first time they posted five or more goals in consecutive games since they posted six goals in consecutive games against Detroit and Anaheim in Games 55 and 56 in early February.  It was the first time they recorded five or more goals in consecutive games on the road since they scored seven goals in each of Games 44 and 45 against Pittsburgh and St. Louis in mid-January.

-- Lars Eller broke a personal 21-game streak without a goal with his empty netter.  It was his first goal on the road since he potted one in a 5-2 win over the New Jersey Devils on January 26^th.

-- Marcus Johansson followed up his four-assist game on Tuesday against Minnesota with a two point game last night (goal, assist).  He now has a four-game points streak over which he is 1-7-8.

-- Kevin Shattenkirk had a pair of assists, his third two-assist game in his last five contests.  He is now 0-11-11, plus-4, in 13 games with the Caps.

-- The win gave the Caps 110 standings points for the season, breaking their tie for third place in team history with the 2008-2009 club that reached the 108-point mark.  This club also broke a tie with that club for the third-highest win total in team history, this team recording its 51^st win of the season.

-- On the heels of a 3-for-4 effort on the power play on Tuesday against Minnesota, the Caps were 2-for-3 last night.  They have power play goals in eight of their last ten games, over which they are 12-for-33 (36.4 percent) and are now tied with the Toronto Maple Leafs in power play efficiency for the season (23.3 percent).

-- Don’t let the power play success blind you to the penalty killers.  They blanked an opponent on the power play for the fifth straight game (15 shorthanded situations killed off).

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov has a goal and an assist, his first multi-point game in March.  Oddly enough, it was the assist that broke the longer streak of zeroes.  He had a streak of seven straight games without an assist ended, while his goal snapped a three game streak without one.

-- Shots and shot attempts were fairly balanced.  Colorado enjoyed a 63-57 edge in total shot attempts and a 50-49 edge at 5-on-5.  The teams were even in total shots on goal at 35 apiece, but the Caps had a 29-26 edge at fives.  In what might one of the odder numbers coming out of that, T.J. Oshie was the only Capital not to record a shot on goal in the game.

In the end…

On Tuesday it was the first line doing most of the damage.  Last night, the second line of Marcus Johansson (1-1-2), Evgeny Kuznetsov (1-1-2), and Justin Williams (0-1-1) combined with the third line of Andre Burakovsky (0-1-1), Lars Eller (1-0-1), and Brett Connolly to drive play and scoring.  Add in a touch of Shattenkirk (two assists) and Carlson (a goal) from the blue line, and it made for one of the more balanced score sheets the Caps have had this season.  

It is part of a longer trend.  The Caps’ offense is starting to pick up again overall.  They now have four or more goals in six of their last eight games and four or more in their last three contests.  Giving up seven goals in two games to a pair of struggling teams is not exactly part of the game plan, but last night might be explained in part by playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road and at high altitude.  That made for a third period that was a bit of an adventure.  With a day off, the Caps can get right back on track defensively when they visit the Arizona Coyotes on Friday, facing a team that will have mischief on their minds following the 4-1 loss the Caps hung on them last Saturday.

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 75: Washington Capitals 5 - Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)

If last night’s game between the Washington Capitals and the Minnesota Wild was an episode of the children’s show “Sesame Street,” it would be devoted to the letter “O.”  Alex Ovechkin had a hat trick, and T.J. Oshie added a pair of goals, including the game-winner in overtime to give the Caps a 5-4 win over the Wild.  The win allowed the Caps to maintain their three-point lead over the Columbus Blue Jackets in the Metropolitan Division standings.

Oshie got the Caps started mid-way through the first period.  It was due in large part to Oshie’s persistence in pursuing the puck as the Wild tried several times, without success, to get the puck across their blue line and out of their zone.  Finally, Oshie pulled the puck across his body to fee Ovechkin cutting right to left through the offensive zone.  Ovechkin collected the puck and fed Nicklas Backstrom coming down the middle over the blue line.  Backstrom one-timed the puck on net, but goalie Devan Dubnyk got his left pad on it.  Oshie jumped on the rebound and stuffed it past Dubnyk to make it 1-0, 11:36 into the period.

Minnesota tied it early in the second period when Jason Pominville converted a feed from behind the net by Martin Hanzal into a one-timer that beat goalie Braden Holtby at the 2:17 mark.  The tie lasted just five minutes when Ovechkin scored on a power play, one-timing a pass from Marcus Johansson from the left wing circle at the 7:31 mark.  Five minutes after that, Ovechkin had another power play goal, one-timing a pass from Kevin Shattenkirk from the same spot to make it 3-1 at the 12:28 mark of the period. 

Hanzal got the Wild back within a goal late in the second period when he backhanded a rebound of a Pominville shot through Holtby, making it 3-2 at the 15:43 mark.  That would be how the teams went to the second intermission.

In the third period, Ovechkin made it three goals on three power plays.  Although they lost a faceoff in the offensive end, the Caps hounded the wild into giving up the puck, Johansson sliding the puck up the right wing wall to Backstrom.  From the far edge of the right wing circle, Backstrom sent the puck across to Ovechkin at the top of the left wing circle, and he wristed it through Dubnyk to make it 4-2, 12:29 into the period.

Minnesota scored just over two minutes later when Dmitry Orlov tried to play the puck out of the defensive end, only to have it flagged down by Jason Spurgeon, who sent a long range shot from the right point past Holtby at the 15:03 mark.  Then, with Dubnyk pulled for an extra attacker in the last minute, the Wild tied the game when a Spurgeon shot ricocheted out to the left wing circle, right onto the stick of Eric Staal, who fired it into the open side of the net past Holtby with 26.6 seconds left.

In overtime, Oshie was denied on a chance to end it with a one timer from the doorstep, firing the puck wide.  The Caps reset the play though, with Johansson collecting the loose puck, circling out from behind the Wild net, and finding Oshie for another one-timer, this time from the left wing circle that beat Dubnyk to the far side, just inside the post to give the Caps the 5-4 win.

Other stuff…

-- The win was the Caps’ 50^th of the season, fifth time in team history they hit that mark and the second consecutive year they did so (they had a team record 56 wins last season).

-- It was not his prettiest effort, but it was Braden Holtby’s 40^th win, making him the third goalie in league history to win 40 or more games in three consecutive seasons.  Martin Brodeur did it with the New Jersey Devils in the 2005-2006, 206-2007, and 2007-2008 seasons (he won the Vezina Trophy in the latter two seasons and was runner-up in the first), while Evgeni Nabokov did it in the 2007-2008, 2008-2009, and 2009-2010 seasons (he was a Vezina runner-up in the 2007-2008 season).  Over his three seasons, Holtby is 128-40-23, 2.15, .924, with 20 shutouts.  Among 39 goalies having played at least 5,000 minutes over the past three seasons, Holtby is first in wins (23 more than Devan Dubnyk and Pekka Rinne), second in goals against average (Carey Price: 2.09), second in save percentage (Price: .929), first in shutouts, first in minutes played (11,493), first in games played (197), and first in games started (196).

-- Alex Ovechkin recorded his 17^th career hat trick, the most in the NHL since he came into the league in 2005-2006 (Eric Staal has 13).  It was his 112^th multi-goal game over that same period, 35 more than runner-up Sidney Crosby.

-- Oshie’s game-winner in overtime was his first overtime game-winning goal as a Capital (regular season; he did have one against Pittsburgh in a postseason game.  With the first of his two goals he eclipsed last season’s point total (51 last season, now 53 this season).  It was his sixth multi-goal game of the season and ninth in his two seasons with Washington (second over that span to Ovechkin’s 11).

-- Marcus Johansson had four assists, the first time in his career he recorded four assists in a game.  Nicklas Backstrom is the only other Capital to accomplish the feat this season (March 18^th in a 5-3 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning).

-- Backstrom had three assists, the fifth time this season he recorded three or more assists in a game, the third time in March, and the second time this month against Minnesota.

-- Ovechkin had a four-point night of his own, the 21^st time in his career he recorded four or more points in a game.  He is one of five Capitals to record four or more points in a game this season (Backstrom: 3 times, Oshie: 2, Kuznetsov: 1, Johansson: 1, Ovechkin: 1).

-- Lars Eller…tough night.  Finished minus-4 in less than 13 minutes of ice time.

-- Tom Wilson…odd night.  Double minor, fighting major, three hits, no shot attempts.

-- Minnesota won the possession wars, out-attempting the Caps at 5-on-5 by a healthy 38-22 margin (68.73 CF%).  The shots on goal were equally advantageous for the Wild at fives (21-10/67.7 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).  In the little things that didn’t go well department, the Caps were sledgehammered in the faceoff circle, winning just 18 of 51 draws (35.3 percent).

In the end…

Sustaining success requires secondary scoring, but when a club gets as robust a baseline from their primary scorers, good things can happen, even when the underlying numbers do not look so good.  So it was for the Caps on Tuesday night.  The top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and T.J. Oshie combined for all five goals and four assists.  For that, thank the power play, which, when you add in Marcus Johansson’s assists, had three goals on six shots and six of the 10 assists recorded.  And all that is nice, but the Caps did not have a particular good game at even strength.  Against a struggling team, that was disappointing, even for a road game.  But the Caps get a chance to get right back to it and do things the right way (or at least perhaps the more sustainable way) when they face the Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday night.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 75: Washington Capitals at Minnesota Wild, March 28th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

At this time of year a successful team is pursuing regular season milestones and records, and it certainly is true for the Washington Capitals as they head out on a five-game road trip, their longest of the season, beginning in Minnesota on Tuesday night when they visit the Wild.

The Caps set a franchise record on Saturday night when they defeated the Arizona Coyotes, 4-1, to secure their 31^st home win, most in franchise history.  They also won their 105^th game over two seasons, a record for wins by the club in consecutive seasons.  On Tuesday night in Minnesota, the Caps will seek to become the fifth team in franchise history to win 50 games in a season and do it in consecutive seasons for the second time in club history (they won 50 games in 2008-2009, then they won 54 games in 2009-2010). 

These two teams met just two weeks ago, the Caps winning by a 4-2 margin at Verizon Center.  Since then, the Wild are 1-5-1, part of a longer struggle in which Minnesota is just 2-9-1 over their last dozen games.  In that span of time, Minnesota went from having a one-point lead on the Chicago Blackhawks at the top of the Central Division and Western Conference to falling seven points behind the Blackhawks in the Central Division and Western Conference standings. 

Things really have not improved for the Wild since they faced the Caps back on March 14^th.  They have had trouble scoring (15 goals, an average of 2.14 per game), and they have had problems keeping opponents from scoring (23 goals, and average of 3.29 per game).  Their scoring over those seven games has been led by a couple of veteran imports – Zach Parise (1-5-6) and Eric Staal (3-2-5).  Parise is in his fifth season in Minnesota (where he was born) after spending his first seven NHL seasons in New Jersey with the Devils. 

If there are two things that characterize Parise’s five seasons in Minnesota, one is his scoring, the other is his durability, or sporadic problems with it.  Over the last five seasons, Parise is the leading goal scorer for the Wild by a wide margin (122 to 78 to Nino Niederreiter).  On the other hand, over those same five seasons he has missed 47 games to a variety of maladies (foot, concussion, lower body, upper body, back, illness).   And for the Wild, it matters.  Parise, who is fifth on the club with 17 goals this season, is on a pace to finish with 20 goals, which would be his lowest total in a full or injury-free season since his rookie year in 2005-2006, when he finished with 14 goals in 81 games with New Jersey.   The 17 goals he has this season have come in 15 games in which the Wild are 10-3-2; they are 34-21-7 in games in which Parise has not recorded a goal.  He is 8-16-24, minus-1, in 30 career games against the Caps.

Eric Staal leads the club in goals over the seven games since facing the Caps (three), adding to his team-leading total of the season (26).  Staal has been one of the most reliable goal scorers for the Wild in March, posting nine in 14 games this month, including goals in his last two contests.  It is quite a change from a February in which Staal recorded just one goal in 12 games.  What sets apart Staal’s goal scoring so far this season from previous seasons, it is his efficiency.  With 26 goals on 192 shots on goal, his 13.5 shooting percentage is his best since he shot 16.1 percent in 2005-2006.  He is a bit more efficient on home ice (14.3 to 12.9 percent), but his 26 goals have been split evenly, home and road.  Staal is 28-44-72, plus-3, in 73 career games against the Caps.

Playing defense is a tough job in the NHL, one that generally requires a physical presence that can stand up to the pounding one gets on a nightly basis.  It makes someone like Jared Spurgeon, all 5-feet, nine-inches and 164 pounds, look like an outlier (he is the lightest defenseman to have dressed in the NHL this season).  Still, he has had enough talent and moxie to survive seven seasons and 443 regular season games in the NHL, all with the Wild, although he was originally a sixth-round draft pick of the New York Islanders in 2008.  This season his 32 points is second among Wild defensemen to Ryan Suter’s 37 points.  Those 32 points are part of what is a career year on offense for Spurgeon, eclipsing the 29 points he recorded last season in 77 games.  Spurgeon, who is second among the club’s defensemen in shots on goal this season (133, to Suter’s 152), has only eight shots on goal over the seven games played by the Wild since they faced the Caps, none finding the back of the net.  He has liked home cooking, though, going 5-15-20, plus-19, in 37 home games compared to 3-9-12, plus-11, in 34 road games.  Spurgeon has little exposure to the Caps in his career, going 2-0-2, minus-3, in four games against Washington.

1.  Small wonder that the Wild have fallen on hard times recently.  Since they lost to the Caps, they are tied for 18^th in goals scored (15), and only Colorado has allowed more goals (27) than the Wild (23).

2.  Over that same period they are a bottom half-ranked team on special teams, 20^th on the power play (17.6 percent), 21^st in penalty killing (76.5 percent).

3.  Minnesota has dressed nine defensemen this season. Eight of them have goals.  Only Gustav Olafsson has failed to record a goal, going without one in 13 games.

4.  Winning when leading after two periods is something that is consistent among the teams in the NHL.  No team, not even the Colorado Avalanche, has won fewer than 60 percent of their games when leading after 40 minutes.  However, only six teams have lost more games when leading after two periods than the Wild (three losses in regulation, three more in extra time).  Toronto is the only club among those six that is currently playoff-eligible.

5.  For a playoff team, one that counted itself among the top clubs in the league a short time ago, the Wild struggle with possession.  They rank 21^st in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall (48.82 percent), 20^th when adjusted for score, zone, and venue (49.71 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

1.  Since they beat the Wild on March 14^th, the Caps are 4-0-1.  Over those five games, Nicklas Backstrom leads the club in total points (1-7-8).  T.J. Oshie leads in goals scored (four).

2.  The Caps are 4-for-13 on the power play since they last played the Wild (30.8 percent), 8-for-9 killing penalties (88.9 percent).

3.  The Caps will be looking to reverse a poor stretch of road play on this trip.  They are 3-5-1 in their last nine road games.

4.  Washington has won only once in Minnesota in their history against the Wild, that coming in their last meeting in Minnesota, a 3-2 win last March 19^th.  The Caps are 1-6-1 all-time in Minnesota against the Wild.

5.  Washington is third in the league in Corsi-for when adjusted for score, zone, and venue (53.81 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Minnesota: Devan Dubnyk

Devan Dubnyk has had two distinctly different seasons in 2016-2017.  In his first 45 appearances he was 32-10-3, 1.97, .934, with five shutouts, and was a candidate to be a Vezina Trophy finalist.  However, in 16 appearances since then, he is 5-9-1 (one no-decision), 2.92, .897, and he is has slipped somewhat from the Vezina conversation.  It is really the first sustained stretch of adversity he has faced since joining the Wild in January 2015 after being traded to Minnesota by the Arizona Coyotes for a third round draft pick.  He has been among the best goalies in the league over the last two seasons, seventh in goals against average (2.26), fifth in save percentage (.922), and tied for second in shutouts (ten), even with his recent struggles.  If he is looking to come out of his slump against the Caps, that might be a tall order.  Dubnyk is 2-4-0, 3.39, .893 in six career appearances against Washington.

Washington: Marcus Johansson

Marcus Johansson might be having the quietest career season imaginable.  He already has a career-high 22 goals and has a career high 48 points.  His plus-21 has obliterated his previous best (plus-12 last season).  He is shooting a career best 19.0 percent, and he is within a shift’s worth of time of his career high in average ice time (16:59 versus 17:32 in 2013-2014). Johansson is in the midst of his fourth consecutive and fifth overall 40-plus point season and seems a virtual lock to hit 50 points for the first time in his career.  With 18 even strength goals, he could reach 20 for the first time in his career.  And yet, he does it well within the boundaries of the rule book.  Johansson is the only active player in the league having appeared in more than 450 games (493) with fewer than 75 career minutes in penalties (62).  He has ten minutes in penalties this season, and his career high is 16 minutes in a season (2015-2016).  How few is that?  Since he came into the league in 2010-2011, there are 249 players who have had single games with 16 or more penalty minutes.  Johansson is 2-2-4, plus-6, in eight career games against Minnesota.

In the end…

This is an opportunity for the Caps to take advantage of a team that is struggling.  Even at home, the Wild have had their problems, losing four of their last five games on home ice.  As for the Caps, they are in a bit of an odd position with this opponent.  Even with the Wild’s struggles, they are on a path to host a first round playoff series with, it would appear, either Nashville or St. Louis, and little would seem to be in the cards to affect that result.  Rather, it is the Caps who find themselves in a more urgent situation with regard to their standing.  They have a slim three-point lead on the Columbus Blue Jackets and Pittsburgh Penguins in the Metropolitan Division.  Depending on how they fare on their five-game road trip that begins in Minnesota, the Caps could solidify their position at the top of the standings, or they could find themselves in the unenviable position of giving up home-ice advantage in the first round of the postseason.  For the Caps, this is more of a “must-win” game than it is for the Wild.

Capitals 3 – Wild 2