The Peerless Prognosticator Brings You... The Eastern Conference Quarterfinals

Having posted the prognosto on the first round series between the Washington Capitals and the Toronto Maple Leafs, what lies in store for the other three Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series? We have an Original Six matchup, an Atlantic affair, and a neighbors-who-hate-one-another contest. And this is just the first round.

Montreal Canadiens (47-26-9) vs. 
New York Rangers (48-28-6)

Two teams with more than 1,200 Stanley Cup playoff games between them, this will be the 16th time in their respective histories that the Montreal Canadiens and New York Rangers meet in the postseason. The Rangers hold an 8-7 lead in all-time series, the difference being their 4-2 win in games in the 2014 Eastern Conference finals. This season, the Canadiens swept the three-game season series.

Canadiens: In the last ten games of the season, Montreal faced one playoff-eligible team (a 3-1 win over the Ottawa Senators).  They were 6-2-2 in those ten games, but it doesn’t seem as impressive as it looks, given the quality of competition.  Nevertheless, they did hold eight of the ten opponents to two or fewer goals.  On the other hand, two of those efforts were authored by Charlie Lindgren in his only two appearances this season for the Habs.  Carey Price had another Vezina-finalist quality season (37-20-5, 2.23, .923, with three shutouts), and given that the Canadiens finished just 15^th in scoring offense (seventh among the eight teams in the Eastern half of the playoff bracket), he’s going to have to keep up that level of performance.  His job is made harder with a series of injuries to defensemen that have them on a day-to-day watch, including Shea Weber.

Rangers: New York could test Price in goal.  The third-best scoring offense among the Eastern Conference playoff teams, they did stumble a bit down the stretch, averaging 2.67 goals per game over their last 15 contests (more than a third of a goal per game under their season average).  It is a team that struggled over the last 15 games, going 5-6-4 and failing to win consecutive games at any point along the way.  Their problem is that they are a comparatively poor possession team, especially when compared to the Canadiens.  In that sense, the pressure will lie in a similar spot to that of Montreal – their goaltender.  Henrik Lundqvist is not coming into the postseason on a hot streak.  In his last eight appearances he is 2-4-2, 3.35, .898.

In the end… This is likely to be a close series, but not one of aesthetic grandeur.  If Montreal was in full health on the back line for this series, we’d say a combination of Montreal’s better possession numbers and Lundqvist’s recent off-play would make for a six-game series.  But given the uncertainty on the Canadiens’ back end in terms of health, we’re thinking… 

Montreal in 7.

*****

Ottawa Senators (44-28-10) vs. 
Boston Bruins (44-31-7)

The Ottawa Senators and Boston Bruins do not have nearly as much history as do the Canadiens and Rangers.  In fact, this will be the first postseason meeting between the clubs.  The Senators are making an appearance in the postseason after sitting out last season’s dance, while the Bruins are appearing in the playoffs after spending the last two seasons on the sidelines.  The Senators swept the four-game season series.

Senators: The Senators can be considered overachievers, if you look at their ranking in individual statistical categories.  They have a lot of rankings in the 20’s, yet they finished with 44 wins and tied for fifth in wins on the road.  Ottawa does not have a 30-goal scorer and have only Erik Karlsson with more than 65 points.  Worse, they have just four games in their last 15 contests in which they scored more than two goals and only once more than three.  Pair that with having allowed four or more goals four of their last seven games to close the regular season, and this is not a club on a pace to reach the second round.  Craig Anderson had a fine year in the face of considerable personal issues he and his wife had to deal with, and he closed the regular season with a 0.65 goals against average and a .972 save percentage with one shutout in his last three appearances to close the regular season.  But it is hard to think he could maintain that level of play, or even raise his game to another level over a seven-game series, given the shortcomings with which the club was negotiating over the final stretch of the season.

Bruins: Best possession team in the league, best combined special teams.  So why did they finish back in the pack?  Because frankly, they don’t have a lot of depth in terms of skill.  Brad Marchand (39 goals) and David Pastrnak (34) can fill the net, but things drop off quickly and by quite a bit after that.  Boston is a team that uses possession, not to place their skilled pieces on the chessboard to get them into the best places to score, but to grind out wins in a workmanlike fashion.  They would be most successful when they are most boring (Marchand’s proclivities for hijinks outside the rules notwithstanding).  It leaves a rather thin margin for goalie Tuukka Rask, who despite a 1.65 goals against average, .936 save percentage, and five shutouts over 34 playoff games the last two seasons, has a win-loss record of 21-13.  It’s a record that could be better with more support

In the end…  Ottawa was once a team that would try to skate opponents into the ground with speed and skill.  This team is not that one.  They will try to annoy opponents to death.  Boston, on the other hand, “plays” the game better than their results would indicate.  It could make for a uniquely unappealing series to watch, except for purists.  The Bruins are just better in more categories that matter...  

Bruins in 6.

*****

Pittsburgh Penguins (50-21-11) vs. 

Columbus Blue Jackets (50-24-8)

A series of a team with a winning tradition in recent years against one trying to find that formula.  The Pttsburgh Penguins and Columbus Blue Jackets present a stark contrast in style.  The Penguins are a skilled team with two of the best, of not the best centers on the planet.  On the other side, the Blue Jackets are more egalitarian in terms of the distribution of skill and rely on a hard work ethic to generate success.  Both teams were 2-1-1 in the season series.  Chalk one up for extra-time hockey.

Penguins: It is possible that no team has done more with less in terms of health in the modern era of hockey than this year’s version of the Penguins.  They managed second in the league in wins and points despite injuries over the course of the year that left them with one player finishing the season playing all 82 games (Phil Kessel).  They had just six players finish with 75 games played and only 10 regulars missing fewer than 20 games.  It made for an odd year of reversals in which Sidney Crosby, the planet’s best playmaker, led the team and the league in goals (44), while Phil Kessel, usually thought of more as a finisher, led the team in assists (47).  Crosby tends to dwarf anyone around him in terms of attention, and the injuries were a continuing drama.  That made it easier for Matt Murray to hide a very nice season in goal (fifth in save percentage, 11^th in goals against average among 35 goalies with at least 2,000 minutes played; four shutouts).

Blue Jackets: A “jack-of-all-trades” is said to be one who does a lot of things well, none of them in an extraordinary fashion.  Often it is a bit of an insult.  It could be used to describe the Blue Jackets, and not as an insult.  They did falter at the end of the regular season (3-6-2 in their last 11 games), but they still finished in the upper half of the rankings in every meaningful statistical category and top-ten in many of them (scoring offense and defense, penalty kill, adjusted Corsi-for percentage). Columbus had 12 players with ten or more goals, 14 with 20 or more points.  They had four players with 20 or more power play points.  “Balance” is their strong point on offense.  On the back end, Sergei Bobrovsky is a lock to be a Vezina Trophy finalist, if not the outright favorite to win it.  Only 12 games in 59 in which he recorded at least 50 minutes of ice time this season did he have a save percentage under .900.  At the other end, he had 16 such games in which he had a save percentage of .970 or better.  What he needs, though is playoff success.  In his sparse postseason experience to date (13 games), he is 2-6-0, 3.49, .890.

In the end… This might be the most competitive of the four opening round series in the East.  And, it will be a battle of the irresistible force in the Penguins meeting the immovable object in the form of the Blue Jackets.  Timing would seem to favor Columbus in this series.  Yes, they enter the playoffs in a slump, but over the course of the season were a better possession team than the Penguins and put together long stretches of top-end play.  Pittsburgh could get some of their wounded back, but they might not be in as playoff-ready shape as they would hope.  They compound this with being a sub-par possession club.  If they escape the Blue Jackets, it could make things difficult for their opponents down the road.  Unfortunately for them, however, that road ends in Pittsburgh in a deciding game… 

Columbus in 7.

The Peerless Prognosticator Brings You: Eastern Conference Quarterfinal, Washington Capitals vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The hour is upon us, the Stanley Cup playoffs. The two month journey is what players dreamed of as kids, the hero in their own fantasy of a Game 7 in the final.   But before there can be any fulfillment of those dreams, there are many battles to be fought, and for the Washington Capitals, the first of them starts on Thursday night in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Their opponent in this opening round matchup is one they have never faced in any of the 34 playoff series they have played over the course of their history…

Washington Capitals (55-19-8)
vs.
Toronto Maple Leafs (40-27-15)

The Capitals enter the 2017 postseason with a strong sense of deja-vu. Their regular season record is almost identical to last year’s (56-18-8), and the record of their opponent is almost identical to that of their first round opponent last season, the Philadelphia Flyers (41-27-14). The Caps enter the postseason as the repeat Presidents Trophy winner, the seventh team to turn that trick since the award was established in 1985-1986. And that brings us to a statistical comparison between last year’s Presidents Trophy winner and this edition of the Caps.

Then and Now

The Caps of 2016-2017 were team similar to, but different from the 2015-2016 edition. On an outcome level the two editions had very similar results in wins and wins in regulation and overtime. However, this year’s team was not quite as balanced between home and road wins, setting a franchise record this season for home wins but being a more formidable team on the road last season.

Scoring was more impressive at both ends of the ice in this year’s Caps. Theirs was the only goal differential over 1.00 goals per game in the league this season, a third of a goal better than last season, although they did repeat in having the top goal differential in the league.

Despite a sluggish start, the Caps finished this season with a power play that was more efficient than last year’s. In the 2016 portion of this season, the Caps converted just 17.0 percent of their power play opportunities. After January 1st, though, the Caps converted at a 27.9 percent pace, the second best power play in the league over that span (Boston was 28.8 percent).

The penalty killers slipped a bit from last year to this, but the real difference was in shorthanded situations faced. Last year the Caps finished having faced 256 such situations (16th most in the league), while this year’s team faced 272 shorthanded situations (5th). This is not the direction one would have hoped the Caps would take.

On balance, though, the special teams had similar outcomes in terms of their special teams index (power play plus penalty killing percentages), just two points apart and both clubs finishing second in the league in that measure.

If there was a significant improvement, it was in Corsi-for percentage adjusted for score, zone, and venue (numbers from Corsica.hockey). A middle-of-the road squad last year finished the year third in the league in that measure. It is an important number. Each of the last four Stanley Cup winners and six of the last nine were top-three in adjusted Corsi-for percentage in the regular season.

Then and Now II

Last year’s opponent in the first round – the Philadelphia Flyers – was a somewhat conventional bottom-half of the draw opponent. They scored (2.57 goals per game) and allowed (2.56) goals in roughly equal portions. And, they were a team that had a balance of veteran production (Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds, Jakub Voracek) and contributions from the 25 and under set (Shayne Gostisbehere, Sean Couturier, Brayden Schenn).

Toronto has a much different profile. The Maple Leafs are a much more prolific team than the Flyers were, averaging about half a goal per game (3.05) more than did the Flyers last season (2.57). By the same token, they are a bit more tolerant of scoring by opponents, allowing about a third of a goal more per game this season (2.85) more than did the Flyers last season (2.56).

The big difference is in the dependence on production from rookies by the Maple Leafs. Nine rookie skaters dressed for Toronto this season, six of them in at least 77 games (Auston Matthews, Nikita Zaitsev, Zach Hyman, Connor Brown, William Nylander, and Mitch Marner).   The group of nine rookies accounted for 123 of the 250 goals scored by the Leafs this season. Toronto had four of the top eight rookie goal scorers in the league (Matthews: 40/1st; Nylander: 22/4th); Brown: 20/T-5th; Marner: 19/8th).

So…who are the obvious and
the not-so obvious key skaters for Washington?

For the Caps, the notion of the “obvious” key skater is a bit more nuanced than one might think on first examination. Clearly, Alex Ovechkin has to be a force in this series. This is true for any series in which the Caps find themselves. But the “obvious” key skater here might very well be Nicklas Backstrom. In his first three postseasons with the Caps, Backstrom was 12-18-30, plus-13, in 28 games. However, his production dried up in the 2010-2011 postseason (0-2-2, even, in nine games), and it has never really come all the way back. In his last five trips to the playoffs, he is 8-24-32, even, in 55 games. Last spring he was more Backstrom-esque, going 2-9-11, plus-3, in 12 games. He will need to be at least that productive in this postseason.

The not-so-obvious key skater might very well be Dmitry Orlov. Last spring, Orlov managed a single assist in 11 playoff games, part of a general lack of production from the blue line that had John Carlson contribute 12 points in 12 games, but saw just eight assists (no goals) from the other seven defensemen to dress. Orlov finished the 2016-2017 regular season with career highs in assists (27), points (33), plus-minus (plus-30, one of just five defensemen in the league to finish at that level or higher). The Caps were 23-4-2 this season in games in which Orlov recorded a point, and he recorded only 14 “minus” games in playing all 82 contests. It was a solid season for the five-year pro, and he could be something of a “secret weapon” in this series and going forward.

And for the Maple Leafs?

This is Auston Matthews’ first spring NHL rodeo. All eyes will be on him, and it is justified. He became the 19th player in NHL history to record 40 or more goals in his rookie season and the first since Alex Ovechkin did it in 2005-2006. He is the third youngest rookie to accomplish that feat, only Sylvain Turgeon (40 goals as a 19 year old in 1983-1984O and Dale Hawerchuk (45 goals as an 18-year old in 1981-1982) being younger. And, he certainly is the straw that stirs the drink. Toronto is 19-5-8 in games in which Matthews scored a goal this season, 21-22-7 in games in which he was held without a goal. The Leafs are 12-20-4 in games in which he did not record a point. Quality of competition has not been a too-difficult obstacle for Matthews, either. In 24 games against playoff teams out of the Eastern Conference this season, he is 10-12-22, plus-6, including 1-2-3, even, against the Capitals.

As for the not-so-obvious key player, perhaps look to Roman Polak. On a club with this much skill, this is an odd choice, but on a club that had seven rookies dressing over the April portion of the schedule to close the season, it might fall to a veteran such as Polak to provide a measure of stability. Polak will almost certainly not contribute much offense from the blue line, and he gets what amounts to third pair minutes on defense, but the defenseman has 49 games of playoff experience with the St. Louis Blues and San Jose Sharks. He, Brian Boyle (100 career playoff games), and James van Riemsdyk (46 career postseason games) might have experience as much as anything to contribute to keep the rookies from getting too high or too low in this intense environment.

What about the netminding?

Braden Holtby won a Vezina Trophy in 2015-2016 with numbers that, with the conspicuous exception of his record-tying wins mark, were arguably inferior to this year’s numbers. He did finish with fewer wins this season than last (42 to 48), but his goals against average was better (2.07 to 2.20), his save percentage was better (.925 to .922), he had more shutouts (nine to three), and his even strength save percentage was better (.935 to .928).

If there are a couple of concerns about Holtby, both have to do with consistency and are flipped images of one another. Last year, Holtby had 42 “quality” starts (as noted at hockey-reference.com, defined by “Hockey Abstract” author Rob Vollman as a save percentage greater than the average save percentage for the year or higher than .885 is 20 or fewer shots faced). That was 63.6 percent of his starts. This year, he had 39 quality starts, a 61.9 percent mark. Then there are the “really bad starts (defined by Vollman as having a save percentage less than .885)."  Holtby had six in 48 starts last season, but he had eight in 42 starts this season. The simpler way of putting it was that this season, Holtby was Longfellow’s “little girl with the curl.” In Holtby's case, when he was good, he was very good indeed, but when he was bad he was horrid. Fortunately, "horrid" is still a rare occurrence for him.  Holtby is 6-2-1, 2.17, .931, with one shutout in his regular season career against Toronto.

Toronto will come into this series at a disadvantage in goal, and that is if Frederik Andersen is completely healthy. There are 22 active goaltenders with at least 25 games of playoff experience since the 2005-2006 postseason. Of that group, Andersen is 19th in goals against average (2.34) and 14th in save percentage (.916). Compare that to Holtby, who tops the list in each category. And to some extent, Andersen was something of a passenger on the Toronto express this season. His regular season goals against average (2.67) ranked 22nd of 35 goalies with 2000 minutes played, and his save percentage (.918) ranked 13th. Good numbers, but not among the league’s top tier. On the other hand, Andersen has never lost to the Caps in regulation time in the regular season. Yes, it is a small population of games (2-0-1, 2.67, .909, with one shutout).

If Andersen has any lingering effects from his collision with (ok, his being run over by) Pittsburgh’s Tom Sestito in the Leafs’ playoff clinching 5-3 win last Saturday, it will be Curtis McElhinney in goal. The nine-year veteran playing for his sixth NHL team is more of a backup goalie than one who can be thrust into a playoff series as the number one netminder and expected to make wonderful things happen. His playoff experience is limited to 34 minutes of one game in 2009 with the Calgary Flames, and his career record against the Caps (1-3-0, 4.23, .863) will give no Toronto fan comfort.

Management Matters

As much, if not more than any first round series, this one features coaches who do not lack for experience. Between them, Washington’s Barry Trotz (1,442, regular season games) and Toronto’s Mike Babcock (1,114 games) have more than 2,500 games of regular season coaching experience. They have more than 1,300 career regular season wins between them, Trotz with 713, Babcock with 596.

It is with the post season fork in the road where these similar records take different paths. Babcock has 82 post season wins on his resume – fourth highest total among active coaches (second among currently employed coaches to Joel Quenneville, depending on the fate of Ken Hitchcock and Darryl Sutter in the weeks to come) – and he is tied with Toe Blake for tenth place on the all-time playoff wins list among coaches. There is also the Stanley Cup on his resume (2008 with the Detroit Red Wings) to go with two other conference championships. But here is the thing. For as much grief as the Capitals have had in not advancing past a second round of the postseason in the post-2004-2005 lockout era, Babcock has not advanced past the second round since he took the Red Wings to the Stanley Cup final in 2009, and he has not coached a second round game since 2013.

Barry Trotz might be looking for a measure of vindication in this postseason, or at least that what fans might be thinking. His regular season success with the Nashville Predators and the Caps (a .559 career winning percentage) has not been extended to his playoff experience. He brings a record of 32-44 into the 2017 postseason, tied with Sid Abel for 85th place in winning percentage (.421) among 104 coaches with at least 20 games of NHL playoff experience. In 17 years as an NHL head coach coming into this postseason, Trotz has never led a team past the second round in his nine trips to the postseason, the roadblock he has encountered in each of his last four trips to the playoffs (twice with Nashville, twice with Washington). In previous years, he had a hard working crew in Nashville that was in a bit over their heads, skill-wise, in the postseason. That will not be the case with Washington.

Your “How Caps of You to Notice” Fact

Since 2007-2008, the Washington Capitals have the best home regular season record in the league (253-97-43/549 points). Over that same span of time, the Caps are 25-19 at home in the postseason. Their .568 winning percentage is ninth among the teams appearing in the playoffs over that span.

Your “How Caps of You to Notice” Fact II

Over that same span of years since 2007-2008, no team has lost more postseason games in overtime than the Caps (15). They are tied with the New York Rangers in that regard. Washington was eliminated in overtime in each of the last two postseasons, by the Rangers in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals in 2015, and in Game 6 of the 2016 Eastern Conference Semifinals by the Pittsburgh Penguins.

In the end…

If Toronto presents a different profile for the Caps and different challenges, do they present a bigger challenge for Washington than did the Flyers, who extended the Caps to six games in the first round last spring? Put another way, the Leafs have a puncher’s chance in the first round. Toronto has skill, especially among the forwards, and if they can play an up-tempo game they can take advantage of the speed advantage they will have against the Washington defense.

They will need it, though. Toronto’s defense and goaltending do not appear to be sufficiently skilled or deep to carry the Maple Leafs through a seven-game series, let alone against a team as experienced, balanced, and skilled as the Capitals. According to the WhoWins.com Web site, a team winning Games 1 and 2 at home in the quarterfinals with the first game at home wins their series 88.2 percent of the time. For a team as young as the Maple Leafs, stealing a win in Washington out of Games 1 and 2 is on the “must-do” list. If Washington, a team with the league’s best home record in the NHL this season, puts Toronto behind a 2-0 eight-ball early, the Leafs might give their fans a thrill with a win at Air Canada Centre, but enthusiasm is not going to be enough to dig the Maple Leafs out of that hole.

Capitals in five.

Photo: Rob Carr/Getty Images

A NO-Point Night -- Game 82: Florida Panthers 2 - Washington Capitals 0

The calendar might have said “April,” but the vibe certainly seemed like “September” at Verizon Center, where the Florida Panthers defeated the Washington Capitals, 2-0, on Sunday night in the regular season finale for both teams.

The game had a decided pre-season feel to it with the Caps sitting several regulars, among them Justin Williams, T.J. Oshie, Matt Niskanen, and John Carlson (injured).  Even the NHL seemed to take this game off…

…yes, that is the game summary published by the NHL.  No, it is not the pre-game, pristine version, but what we were left with at game’s end.

So what we have are some general comments.

-- No NHL game is meaningless.  It was a chance for Garrett Mitchell, a veteran of eight seasons and almost 400 regular season and playoff games with Hershey in the AHL, a sixth-round pick in the 2009 draft, to get a sweater for his NHL debut.  The game had no impact on the final standings, but no players debut is lacking for impact.

-- Chandler Stephenson got into his fourth game this season, his 13^th career game with the Caps, and his first NHL action since February 1^st.  Consider it recognition for a fine season with the Hershey Bears, where he is 10-28-38, plus-9, in 71 games so far this season.

-- The Caps finished the season having allowed 177 goals, fewest in the league by 16 goals (Columbus Blue Jackets).

-- It was the fourth time this season that the Caps were shut out, the third time it happened on home ice, although it was the only time in the 2017 portion of the season that the Caps were blanked at Verizon Center.

-- It was the only time in the 2017 portion of the season that the Caps allowed two goals or fewer at home and lost the game in regulation time.   

In the end…

It was not the Caps’ best performance of the year, or even perhaps their best performance of the day (the clips from the “jerseys-off-our-backs” promotion looked pretty good).  But it appears no one was injured (although there was a moment when Braden Holtby had his mask knocked off that had Caps fans recoiling in horror), and attention will now turn to the Toronto Maple Leafs, a team the Caps have never faced in the postseason.  Now, it’s for real.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 26

The last full week of the season for the Washington Capitals was one in which the team found itself having to play four Eastern Conference teams either trying to get into playoff shape themselves or just trying to reach the playoffs.  And when Week 26 was over, all four contenders were vanquished in what ranks as among the best weeks of the season for the Caps.

Record: 4-0-0

This was the ninth four-game week of the season for the Caps and the fourth time in which the Caps swept the week.  That achievement came against four eastern teams that were arguably of playoff caliber.  The Columbus Blue Jackets were still harboring hopes of overtaking the Caps in the Metropolitan and league standings when they faced the Caps and were beaten, 3-2.  It put the Blue Jackets in a spin; they ended their week on a five-game losing streak.  The Toronto Maple Leafs, using the Caps as a measuring stick in their effort to return to the postseason, fell behind by four goals on their way to a 4-1 loss.  The New York Rangers were looking to settle themselves in advance of the postseason and use a win over the Philadelphia Flyers as a springboard against the Caps three nights later.  They were shutout, 2-0.  Finally, the Boston Bruins were in particular need of a win to avoid having to face the Caps in the first round of the playoffs.  After splitting the first two goals of the game, the Caps pulled away for a 3-1 win and put the Bruins in the crosshairs.  When it was over, the Caps had 55 wins for the season, the second highest total in franchise history with one more chance to tie the franchise record.

Offense: 3.00/game (season: 3.22 /game; rank: 2nd)

The Caps played three of the top dozen scoring defenses in the league in Week 26 – Columbus, the Rangers, and Boston – and scored eight goals.  Frankly, that is not a bad week’s work.  Not extraordinary, just solid.  And consistent; the Caps finished the week with three goals or more in three of the four games.  That made 50 times this season the Caps recorded three or more goals in a game.  Only Pittsburgh (59) and Minnesota (53) have done it more often.

What was remarkable about the scoring for the week was the balance.  Ten different players shared the 12 goals for the week; 15 different players recorded points.  Justin Williams and Kevin Shattenkirk were the multiple goal scorers for the week, each with a pair.  It might be worth noting here that these two players are strong evidence of the effectiveness of Brian MacLellan making personnel decisions and addressing specific needs.  Williams was one of two right wings MacLellan acquiring in 2015 (T.J. Oshie being the other) to plug a hole at right wing.  And, there is Williams’ track record as a clutch performer (“Mr. Game 7”).  Shattenkirk was a trading deadline acquisition this season obtained to beef up the blue line and add a bit more punch from the right side.

Williams led the team in points for the week (five) with five players coming up right behind with three apiece (Andre Burakovsky, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Nicklas Backstrom, and Shattenkirk). Every one of the 13 forwards who dressed in Week 26 recorded a point except for Paul Carey, who was held without a point in the only game he played, although he was quite active against the Bruins on Saturday.

Defense: 1.00/game (season: 2.16 /game; rank: 1st)

The Caps faced three of the top six scoring offenses in the league in Week 26 and held the Rangers, Maple Leafs, and Blue Jackets to a total of four goals and 89 shots.  The three games for the week holding teams to one or fewer goals made it 29 times this season they did so, tying Montreal for most in the league.  The Caps held the last three opponents for the week – Toronto, the Rangers, and Boston – to fewer than 30 shots apiece, the Rangers (24) and the Bruins (22) to under 25.  The Caps finished the week having held 27 opponents to under 25 shots in a game this season, tying the Bruins for second most in the league, behind Los Angeles (34).  They recorded eight periods of the 12 played for the week holding opponents under ten shots.  None of the four opponents got off to good starts, shots-wise, all of them failing to hit the ten-shot threshold on the shot meter.

The Caps had a bit of an odd week at 5-on-5.  They lost the shot attempts battle rather badly to Columbus to open the week (41-57/41.8 percent Corsi-for), but then rebounded to win that battle in each of the next three games to finish the week just under 50 percent (49.2; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

Goaltending: 1.00 / .964 / 1 SO (season:  2.06/ .925 / 12 shutouts)

Braden Holtby and Philipp Grubauer split the week, and their numbers were almost indistinguishable.  Holtby was 2-0-0, 1.00, .964; while Grubauer was 2-0-0, 1.00, .960.  Holtby had the shutout, a 24-save gem against the Rangers.  It was his league-leading ninth shutout this season, giving the Caps a league-leading 12 blankings this season (Ottawa has ten).

Both Holtby and Grubauer pitched perfect first periods, Holtby stopping all 17 first period shots he saw and Grubauer stopping all 11 of the shots he saw in the opening frame.  Holtby was perfect in the second periods of his two games as well, stopping all 21 shots he faced.

With his two fine performances in Week 26, Holtby seems to be righting himself after consecutive sub-par performances against Minnesota and Arizona.  For Grubauer, his two wins make him 3-0-0 (one no-decision), 1.61, .938.  When Grubauer stopped 21 of 22 shots on Saturday, it might have been his last regular season game as a Capital, given the attention he is getting as a possible selection of the Vegas Golden Knights in the upcoming expansion draft.  If it was, it was a fine performance to go out on, closing a fine season and as an important ingredient to the Caps’ success this season.

Power Play: 2-for-13 / 15.4 percent (season:  23.2 percent; rank: 3rd)

The Caps faced three top-ten penalty killing units in Week 26 – Boston (first), Toronto (ninth), and Columbus (tenth) – so going 1-for-9 against that trio, especially with two of the games on the road, was not particularly surprising.  Still, it was just the second time in the last seven weeks in which the Caps had ten or more power plays that they finished the week under 20 percent.

The Caps’ efficiency on the power play reflected the skill of the penalty killers they faced.  They scored two goals on 14 shots in 17:25 of power play time.  The Caps had particular trouble getting their power play unleashed against Boston in the last game of the week.  Against the league’s top penalty killing unit, the Caps managed only two shots on goal in 6:35 of power play time.  Alex Ovechkin and Kevin Shattenkirk led the team with three shots on goal apiece, but it was Shattenkirk getting one of the power play goals for the week.  Justin Williams had the other.

Penalty Killing: 7-for-8/ 87.5 percent (season: 84.2 percent; rank: 6th)

The charm of Week 26 as far as penalty killing goes was the few shorthanded situations faced as much as the efficiency with which the Caps dealt with them.  It was the second time in nine four-game weeks this season in which Washington faced fewer than ten shorthanded situations (they faced eight in Week 20.  They held three of the four opponents to two or fewer power play opportunities.  The Caps finished the week having held opponents to two or fewer power play chances 30 times.  The odd thing is that the Caps are 18-7-5 in those games, 37-11-3 when allowing three or more chances.

It was an efficient as well as an effective penalty kill in Week 26.  The Caps held their four opponents to just seven shots on goal in 12:51 of shorthanded ice time.  They did not allow a power play shot on goal in either of the final two games of the week.  Against the Rangers, that was due to not having to face the Ranger power play; they did not have any chances.  Against Boston, the Caps shutout the Bruins on shots on two power plays and 4:00 of ice time.

Faceoffs: 106-for-215 / 50.7 percent (season: 49.9 percent; rank: 14th)

It was a fair week overall, but not as good in the particulars.  The Caps won 34 of 54 draws against Columbus to open the week (63.0 percent), but then finished under 50 percent in each of the last three games of the week.  It was just one under 50 percent in the middle two games of the week, against Toronto and the Rangers, but the Caps won just 22 of 52 against Boston (42.3 percent) in the last game of the week.

The final numbers were a bit inflated by the success the Caps had in the neutral zone, winning 40 of 60 draws (66.7 percent).  They split 70 draws in the offensive zone, but they won just 34 of 85 defensive zone draws (40.0 percent).

The good part was that each of the big four who took at least ten draws for the week finished over 50 percent – Nicklas Backstrom (51.6), Lars Eller (52.4), Jay Beagle (50.8), and Evgeny Kuznetsov (55.6).

Goals by Period:

The second period has been on in which the Caps struggled from time to time this season.  Not so in Week 26.  They recorded seven goals in the middle frame for the week, scoring at least one in the second period of each game and finishing with a plus-6 goal differential in the period, far better than the plus-2 differential for the season with which they started the week.  The Caps were as impressive in the first period, just in a different way, denying any of their four opponents a goal, scoring two of their own to finish the week with a plus-42 goal differential in the first periods of games.  The Caps did get a third period scare from Columbus, who got a pair to close a 3-0 deficit to 3-2, but they could get no closer.

In the end…

To find fault with a 4-0-0 week, especially against the quality of opponent, would be to pick nits off of nits.  Consider that last season, the Caps went 1-0-2 in week 26, coasting into the postseason, and this club’s Week 26 look reflects a more determined attitude to enter the postseason taking care of business in a businesslike way.

When the Caps wrap up their regular season on Sunday against the Florida Panthers, they will have a chance to tie a franchise record for wins in a season and post more wins on home ice (33) than any team has in more than 20 years, since the Detroit Red Wings posted 36 wins at Joe Louis Arena in 1995-1996.  Week 26 teed it up for them with a superb effort.

Three Stars of the Week:

• First Star: Justin Williams (2-3-5, plus-4, 1 GWG, 1 PPG, nine shots on goal, 12 shot attempts)
• Second Star: Kevin Shattenkirk (2-1-3, plus-2, 2 GWG, 4 hits, 5 takeaways, five blocked shots)
• Third Star: Braden Holtby (2-0-0, 1.00, .967, one shutout)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 82: Florida Panthers at Washington Capitals, April 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end.

-- Seneca

What started on October 13^th in Pittsburgh, watching the Penguins hoist the 2016 Stanley Cup, comes to an end on Sunday evening in Washington.  For the Washington Capitals, the 2016-2017 regular season comes to an end in a contest with the Florida Panthers.  The game has little meaning other than being the 82^nd game in an 82-game schedule, perhaps for some fans their first or only chance to see the Capitals in person this season, certainly not a meaningless consideration for them.

For the Florida Panthers, the last six weeks have been nothing short of disastrous.  On February 20^th they wrapped up a five-game road trip with their fifth win in five tries, a 2-1 win over the St. Louis Blues.  With a 28-20-10 record, they were fourth in the Atlantic Division and held the second wild card spot for the postseason.

Then, the bottom dropped out of their season.  Since that five-game, five-win road trip, the Panthers are 5-16-1 entering their last weekend of games of the season and have not won a game in regulation on the road since that 2-1 win over St. Louis on February 20th (their only road win came in a Gimmick in New York against the Rangers on March 17^th).

Jonathan Marchessault has recorded almost a quarter of the total number of goals scored by the Panthers over their 22-game slide (13 of 54).  It is part of a larger career season in which he has already reached the 30-goal mark, more than three times his career goal total (8) in 49 games over three seasons with Columbus and Tampa Bay preceding this one.  What he has not been, though, is a prolific goal scorer on the road this season.  Marchessault has 22 goals in 37 home games, but has just eight in 36 road games.  He has had just three goals in his last 25 games on the road.  And, he is a team-worst minus-19 in this 5-16-1 slide for the Panthers.  Marchessault is 0-2-2, minus-1, in five career games against the Caps.

Keith Yandle started each of his first nine seasons as a member of the Coyotes, both the “Phoenix” and the “Arizona” versions.  However, he was traded twice in a 15-month period, first to the New York Rangers at the 2015 trading deadline and again last June from the Rangers to the Panthers.  Before those trades, Yandle was among the most prolific offensive defensemen in the league.  From the 2009-2010 through 2013-2014 seasons, he was tied for sixth among all NHL defensemen in goals (52) and third in points (226).  While he has still maintained a high level of offensive output (he has 40-plus point in each of the last three seasons, including this one), he does not appear to be the missing ingredient to push his club to the next level.  He does lead the Panther defensemen in points in their 5-16-1 stumble (2-10-12), but Florida is just 2-7-0 in games during that run in which he recorded a point.  Yandle is 1-11-12, minus-1, in 18 career games against the Caps.

Roberto Luongo has not been in the Florida nets since leaving the game after one period in a 2-1 trick shot loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on March 2^nd and seems unlikely to play again this season.  Starting with his effort in relief of Luongo on March 2^nd, James Reimer has had the bulk of the work in net.  In his 14 appearances since relieving Luongo, Reimer is 4-8-1 (one no-decision), 3.07, .908, with one shutout.  Reimer, who was signed away from the San Jose Sharks as a free agent last summer, has had a pretty good year as Luongo’s backup (and now replacement).  He is 16-16-5 going into the weekend’s games, his win total just one behind the 17 he had last season split between the Toronto Maple Leafs (for whom he played almost six seasons) and the Sharks.  He has been remarkably consistent this season, going 8-9-1, 2.67, .916 at home (with one shutout) and 8-7-4, 2.66, .914 on the road.  Reimer is 2-4-2, 2.57, .922 in eight career appearances against Washington.

1.  The Panthers have been outscored by a healthy margin in their 5-16-1 tumble, 74-54 (3.36 to 2.45 per game), 61-38 at even strength.  They allowed four or more goals 11 times in those 22 games, including each of their last four contests heading into the weekend.

2.  Special teams have not let the Panthers down over that slide.  The power play is 14-for-66 in their last 22 games (21.2 percent), while the penalty killers skated off 50 of 59 shorthanded situations (84.7 percent).

3.  That 5-16-1 record is the second-worst in the league since February 22^nd.  Only the New Jersey Devils’ record is worse (3-13-4).

4.  Oddly enough, no team in the league has more shots on goal in that span of time than the Panthers, who have 751 shots on goal (34.1 per game) since February 22^nd.

5.  Florida might have been playing in some bad luck over those last 22 games.  Their shot attempt percentage (50.55 percent) is 13^th in the league over that span of games (numbers from NHL.com).

1.  The Caps have already clinched the best home record in the league (they are 32-6-2 to 31-6-4 for Pittsburgh), and unless they set a record for goals allowed in a home game, they will finish with the fewest goals allowed at home (currently 65 to 79 for Anaheim) and the best goal differential (currently plus-58 to plus-44 for Minnesota).

2.  When they failed to score on four power play chances against the Boston Bruins on Saturday, it put aside any reasonable chance the Caps could finish with the best home penalty kill in the league.  They would have to go 6-for-6 or better to finish first.

3.  Should the Caps win this final game, they will finish the season with precisely the same record with which they finished last season – 56-18-8 and 120 points.   As it is, the 55 wins they have is the second-highest win total for a season in franchise history.

4.  The Caps have more wins at home (32) than four teams have in total: Arizona (30), Vancouver (30), New Jersey (28) and Colorado (22).

5.  The Caps have the second best shooting percentage on home ice at 5-on-5 (10.04 percent) and the best save percentage at fives at home (94.82 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder:

Florida: Jaromir Jagr

A few days ago, Jaromir Jagr sat down for an interview with ESPN.  In it, when confronted with a comment that he joked about playing until he was 50 years old, he responded: “I wasn't joking. I was serious. I'm not joking. If God gives me the health, I will.”  Jagr will not reach the age of 50 for another five years, but if he does last that long, we might find himself at the top of just about every meaningful statistical category in NHL history (ok, at least among players not named “Gretzky”).  As it is, he is currently fourth all-time in games played (1,709 through Thursday), third in goals (765), fifth in assists (1,147), second in points (1,912), tied for tenth in power play goals (217, with Mike Gartner), first in game-winning goals (135), and second in shots on goal (5,598). If Jagr, who is an unrestricted free agent after this season, averages over the next five seasons his production this season (16-28-44), he would finish first in all-time games played, second in goals, second in assists, and as one of just two players in NHL history with more than 2,000 points, Gretzky being the other.  At the moment, he alternated games with points over his last five contests and is 5-5-10, minus-8, in the Panthers’ 5-16-1 slide.  Jagr is 32-61-93, plus-16, in 82 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Karl Alzner

Karl Alzner has had a difficult year.  Never a particularly big contributor on the offensive end, his game is keeping things quiet in his own end with a combination of position, angles, and experience to keep opponents from getting good scoring chances.  But of 12 pairs of defensemen having played at least 50 5-on-5 minutes together this season, Alzner is half of three of the worst six pairs of defensemen in Coris-for percentage (numbers from Corsica.hockey).  Brooks Orpik, John Carlson, and Nate Schmidt are the other halves of those pairs.  Schmidt and Orpik ranking third and fourth in Corsi-for among the six defensemen playing at least 300 5-oon-5 minutes this season, Alzner has been something of an anchor.  His personal Corsi-for at fives has been in decline the past few seasons, and it does sound alarm bells about whether Alzner becomes a focus of teams as a player to exploit in the postseason.  Alzner is 2-5-7, plus-10, in 31 career games against Florida.

In the end…

There is one lingering morsel to consume in this regular season for the Caps.  With a win against the Panthers, they will win their 33^rd game on home ice this season, the most of any team in the post-2004-2005 lockout era, topping the 32 wins posted by Nashville in 2005-2006, San Jose in 2008-2009, and Tampa Bay in 2014-2015.  It would be the most home-ice wins for a team since the Detroit Red Wings won 36 games on Joe Louis Arena ice in 1995-1996.  It is small stuff in the larger context of the postseason on which the Caps are about to embark, but it is just one more measure of just how good a season this team has had.

Capitals 4 – Panthers 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 81: Washington Capitals at Boston Bruins, April 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take their final road trip of the regular season when they head to Beantown to face the Boston Bruins in a Saturday matinee matchup. The Capitals, who spent most of the season as a good, if not particularly elite road team in terms of record, have won six of their last seven road contests since dropping all three games in their annual California trip.

Boston comes into this contests as perhaps the streakiest team in the NHL at the moment. In their last 25 games, the Bruins have four winning streaks of three or more games and a losing streak of four games. They had a six-game winning streak, their longest of the season, snapped by the Ottawa Senators in a Gimmick on Thursday night.

Over that 6-0-1 run in their last seven games, Boston has done it with defense and goaltending. As far as the latter, it has not mattered whether the goaltender was number one netminder Tuukka Rask or backup Anton Khodobin. Between them, they stopped 187 of 194 shots, a spellbinding .964 save percentage. Khudobin, who is enjoying quite a revival after an awful start to his season, grabbed two of the six wins, allowing just three goals on 62 shots (1.50/.952). It extended a personal winning streak to six straight in his last seven appearances, over which he has a goals against average of 1.98 and a save percentage of .928. This comes after a poor 1-5-1, 3.06, .885 record in his first eight appearances this season. Khudobin in 4-2-1, 2.41, .923, with one shutout in seven career appearances against the Caps.

Khudobin is a credible possibility to start this game because of Tuukka Rask’s mysterious inability to solve the Caps. He comes into this game with four wins and the trick shot loss over the Bruins’ 6-0-1 run, stopping 128 of 132 shots (0.79/.970), and he has a pair of shutouts to go with it. That, however, comes after enduring a personal four-game losing streak over which he allowed 15 goals on 95 shots (4.53/.842).

That brings us to Rask’s almost bizarre lack of success against the Caps. In 15 career appearances, he has never won a regular season game against Washington in which he allowed a goal. He pitched a 16-save shutout in a 3-0 Bruins win at TD Garden on March 6, 2015. In his other 14 appearances, Rask has 14 losses – nine in regulation and five in extra time, all of them in overtime (no Gimmicks here). It is not as if his record is ghastly against the Caps; he has a career 3.14 goals against average and a .887 save percentage, and he has allowed more than four goals in a game to the Caps only once. One might think that would be good enough, if not for a winning record, then at least a few more wins along the way.

Among the skaters, David Pastrnak leads the team in points in their 6-0-1 run, going 2-4-6. In a way, Pastrnak has been a microcosm of the Bruins’ last month – streaky. He was kept the scoresheet in the loss to Ottawa on Thursday, but he still has points in five of his last six games, which followed a point in four games, which followed an 11-game points streak. Generally, Pastrnak has been a very productive player over his last 32 games, going 15-22-37, minus-1, three of those goals being game-winners. He is 1-3-4, minus-3, in five career games against Washington.

Patrice Bergeron leads the club in goals over their 6-0-1 stretch, potting four pucks over those seven games. The short burst in goal scoring follows a nine-game streak without one, tying his longest goal drought of the season. The four goals gave Bergeron 21 on the season, making it six straight full seasons (not including the abbreviated 2012-2013 season) in which he recorded 20 or more goals. He will be appearing in his 899th career game on Saturday, all of them with the Bruins, the fifth highest games-played total in team history spanning 92 seasons. Few players this season are as skilled as Bergeron in perhaps the most basic of plays – the faceoff. Among 55 players taking at least 1,000 draws this season, Bergeron ranks third (59.9 percent), behind only Anaheim’s Antoine Vermette (62.3 percent) and Colorado’s Matt Duchene (62.7 percent). Duchene’s rank might explain the fact that the Avalanche are the only team in the league this season to hold Bergeron under 50 percent in faceoffs in a game twice. Bergeron is 10-25-35, minus-5, in 40 career games against the Capitals.

1.   The Bruins do not work and play well with others. They are the sixth-most penalized team in the league (342 total penalties) and are tied for sixth in minor penalties taken (299, with the Florida Panthers).

2.  The Bruins are the 12th-best scoring offense in the league (2.85 goals per game). They might be better but for the fact that they are fifth in the league in missed shots, one of eight teams in the league with at least 1,000 (1,061).

3.  Only one team in the league has recorded more shots on goal this season than the 2,699 recorded by the Bruins (Pittsburgh: 2,703).

4.  With all the shooting, the Bruins are not an especially successful team when out-shooting opponents. No team has out-shot opponents more times than Boston (59 in 81 games), but their winning percentage in those games of .508 is just 12th in the league.

5.  One has to wonder about that peculiar disconnect between out-shooting teams and winning, since the Bruins are the second best team in the league in shot attempt shares at 5-on-5. Their Corsi-for (54.77 percent) is second only to the Los Angeles Kings (55.12). Their adjusted Corsi-for (for score, zone, and venue) is best in the league at 54.86 percent (numbers from Corsica.hockey).

1.  Braden Holtby leads the league with 42 wins, one more than Columbus’ Sergei Bobrovsky and Edmonton’s Cam Talbot.  If he wins on Saturday or Sunday (assuming Philipp Grubauer will get one the starts in the back-to-backs to end the regular season, and neither Bobrovsky nor Talbot win both of their remaining games, Holtby would become the first goaltender to lead the league in wins in consecutive seasons since Martin Brodeur led the league in four straight seasons from 2002-2003 through 2006-2007.

2.  No team has more Gimmick losses on the road this season than the Caps.  They, along with Florida, Toronto, and Carolina, have four such losses.

3.  Washington has the second-best power play on the road this season at 25.9 percent (Toronto is at 28.1 percent).

4.  The Caps have three players with three game-winning goals on the road this season.  Alex Ovechkin is not one of them; he has one.  Marcus Johansson, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and T.J. Oshie are the three.

5.  The Caps still have not recorded a goal at 4-on-4 this season.  Depending on whether Carolina, the other team that has yet to do so, accomplishes the feat, the Caps could be the fourth or fifth team since the 2004-2005 lockout not to have scored a 4-on-4 goal in a season.  Edmonton (2012-2013), Anaheim (2012-2014), and Florida (2014-2015) are the others.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Torey Krug

When one thinks about who among the league’s defensemen are the go-getters when it comes to power play points, the names Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns, and even perhaps the Caps’ Kevin Shattenkirk come to mind.  A name that might not is that of Torey Krug.  But there he is, tied for fourth in the league among defensemen with 25 power play points this season.  The odd thing about his production is how little it seems to matter in the bigger picture.  The Bruins are 3-3-0 when he recorded a power play goal, 11-6-2 when he recorded a power play assist.  In fact, Boston is 1-2-0 when he recorded one of each.  When he records points of any nature, though, Boston is 27-10-3, 17-20-4 when he does not.  Krug is 0-1-1, minus-6, in 11 career games against the Caps, but is listed as day-to-day with a lower body injury.

Washington: Daniel Winnik

Daniel Winnik has had a nice little scoring run of late.  He is 3-2-5, plus-5, in his last seven games with points in four of them.  Not bad numbers for a fourth liner, even over a small sample of games.  He is also one of 14 Capitals with at least ten points in road games this season (3-9-12).  He has one of those goals and two of those assists in his last four road games.  As it is, Winnik already has a career best in goals scored in a season (12), topping the 11 he had with Colorado in 2010-2011 and in his rookie season in Phoenix (now Arizona) in 2007-2008.  It is a product of a keen eye shooting the puck, his 15.0 shooting percentage being the best of his ten-year career, the only time in those ten years he shot better that 10 percent for a season.  Winnik is 3-2-5, minus-2, in 16 career games against Boston.

In the end…

It is all about seeing things to their completion and doing things the right way, taking good habits into the postseason by repeating them in these last two games of the regular season.  With the Caps already having set a team record for wins in a season at home, closing the road portion of the season on a 6-1-0 run would put them in an enviable place as the postseason gets underway.

Capitals 4 – Bruins 2

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 80: Washington Capitals 2 - New York Rangers 0

The Washington Capitals returned to the friendly confines of Verizon Center on Wednesday night looking to clinch the top spot in the league standings for the season, and they did just that with a 2-0 win over the New York Rangers.

The teams battled to a scoreless first period, and it was looking for a while that the second period would end in similar fashion. But, with the time dwindling in the period, Justin Williams broke the scoreless tie. On a power play, the Caps worked the puck around the Ranger defense, Matt Niskanen sliding the puck down the right wing wall to Marcus Johansson. From the wall, Johansson found Evgeny Kuznetsov easing down the middle, and Kuznetsov relayed the puck to Alex Ovechkin in the left wing circle. Ovechkin fired and the puck nicked Williams on the way through to the net, changing its direction just enough to elude goalie Henrik Lundqvist to make it 1-0 at the 14:49 mark.

Early in the third period, Kuznetsov rewarded some sacrifice at the other end by a teammate. Brooks Orpik took a J.T. Miller drive off his knee, blocking the shot into the corner where Williams dug it out, chipping it up the wall to the blue line. The puck slid out to the middle where Johansson picked it up and headed up ice. Skating with Kuznetsov on his left, Joahnsson skated the puck to the Ranger line where he chipped a pass to Kuznetsov. Skating in alone on Lundqvist, Kuznetsov snapped a shot past Lundqvist’s blocker to make it 2-0, 5:42 into the period.

It was more than Braden Holtby would need, clinching the game and the Presidents Trophy in style by turning away all 24 shots he faced for the shutout and the 2-0 win.

Other stuff…

-- The win was the Capitals’ 54th of the season, tying the 2009-2010 club for the second-highest win total in team history.

-- Justin Williams’ goal and assist made it points in nine of his last 14 games (4-6-10).  It was his first multi-point game since February 22^nd, when he had two assists in a 4-1 win over the Philadelphia Flyers.  It was his first multi-point game at Verizon Center since he had a goal and an assist in a 6-1 win over the Carolina Hurricanes.

-- The Caps choked the life out of the Rangers, holding them to 24 shots on goal, almost a third of them from defensemen (seven).

-- Alex Ovechkin recorded his 35^th assist of the season, lifting him into a tie for seventh among left wingers in assists.  It was his fourth straight game without a goal, although he might have had one had his power play drive not ticked off Williams, who was credited with the goal.

-- The power play goal scored by the Caps made it power play tallies in six of their last seven games, 11 of their last 14.  Since January 1^st, the Caps are 38-for-130 on the power play (29.2 percent).

-- Washington held the Rangers without a power play opportunity, the second time this season they accomplished that feat.  They did it on February 24^th in a 2-1 win over the Edmonton Oilers.  The Caps might have had to face a shorthanded situation when the Rangers’ Chris Kreider took a penalty to put the Caps on a power play, but having Justin Williams take a penalty mid-way through the ensuing man advantage.  The Rangers would have had an abbreviated power play when Kreider’s penalty expired, but they took a too-many-men-on-ice penalty to negate that possibility.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov snapped a three-game streak without a point with his goal and assist.  It was his 16^th multi-point game this season, tying him for fourth on the club with Marcus Johansson (Nicklas Backstrom: 21; T.J. Oshie: 17; Alex Ovechkin: 17).

-- Justin Williams and Brooks Orpik led the Caps in shots on goal with four apiece.

-- Braden Holtby’s shutout was his ninth of the season, tops in the league.  It was his 32^nd career shutout, lifting him into a tie with Boston’s Tuukka Rask for the most shutouts since Holtby came into the league in the 2010-2011 season (Henrik Lundqvist leads with 37).  The win, his 42^nd to lead the league, gives Holtby an even 90 wins over the last two seasons, 18 more than second-place Martin Jones of the San Jose Sharks (72).

-- The Caps had just a one-shot edge overall (25-24) and at 5-on-5 (21-20), but they did have a slightly larger margin in 5-on-5 shot attempts (45-38/54.22 percent; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

In the end…

Another solid win.  Even in terms of playing the second of a back-to-back games scenario, the Caps looked to be focused and determined.  It is a team back in full flight, going 10-1-1 in their last dozen games overall, and they are an amazing 20-1-1 in 22 home games in the 2017 portion of the season.  They have outscored their opponents by a whopping 85-33 margin in those 22 games.  The Rangers were not so much an opponent as they were another notch on the post.  The Caps have made Verizon Center the most inhospitable arena in the NHL for visitors.  It could not have come at a better time.

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 79: Washington Capitals 4 - Toronto Maple Leafs 1

The Washington Capitals took care of business in a businesslike way on Tuesday night, defeating the Toronto Maple Leafs, 4-1, at Air Canada Centre in Toronto.  The Win put the Caps on the brink of clinching their third Presidents Trophy in team history and left the Maple Leafs sitting in the second wild-card position, where they could face the Caps in the postseason.

The teams appeared headed to a scoreless first period when the third line engaged in some nifty cycling in the left wing circle, capped with a one-timer by Lars Eller off a feed from Andre Burakovsky that beat goalie Curtis McElhinney to give the Caps a 1-0 lead 14:34 into the period.

Mid-way through the second period the Caps doubled their margin on a power play.  T.J. Oshie and Alex Ovechkin played catch with the puck at the perimeter, and when Oshie too a return pass from Ovechkin, he sent it across the ice to Kevin Shattenkirk in the left wing circle.  Shattenkirk one-timed the puck past McElhinney’s right pad, and it was 2-0 at the ten minute mark.

In the third period, Nate Schmidt provided some insurance when he caught the Leafs paying too much attention elsewhere.  Justin Williams wrapped a pass around a Leaf defender down the left wing wall to Brett Connolly in the corner to the right of McElhinney.  With the Leafs paying attention to what Connolly might do, Schmidt darted down the middle into open ice.  Connolly found him with a well-placed pass, and Schmidt corralled it, snapping a shot past McElhinney at the 8:11 mark to give the Caps a 3-0 lead.

Tom Wilson added a goal late when he got behind the Toronto defense and ran down a pass that Daniel Winnik lobbed into open space.  In alone on a break, Wilson pulled the puck to his backhand and slipped it between McElhinney’s pads to make it 4-0, 16:44 into the period.

Toronto ruined Philipp Grubauer’s shutout bid on a power play in the last two minutes on a Mitch Marner goal, but it was too little, too late, and the Cap skated off with the 4-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- Kevin Shattenkirk scored his first goal with the Caps in his 16^th game with the team.  He now has 13 points (1-12-13) in those 16 games.

-- Brett Connolly had a pair of assists, his first multi-point game since he had a pair of assists in a 5-0 win over the Carolina Hurricanes on February 7^th.  It was his first multi-point game on the road this season.

-- Every Capital finished with at least one shot on goal except for Daniel Winnik, who nonetheless contributed an assist to the effort.

--  Nate Schmidt has a bit of an odd streak going.  His goal was his second in two games, three weeks apart.  He scored a goal in his last appearance, a 4-2 win over the Minnesota Wild on March 14^th.  He was also a plus-3 in this game.

-- That Schmidt was in the lineup at all was a product of John Carlson unable to go due to a lower-body injury.

-- Jay Beagle had an assist.  That makes the Caps 22-3-1 this season when he recorded at least one point.

-- The Caps certainly spread things around, scoring-wise.  Eleven Caps shared the 12 points recorded.

-- The Caps stopped Auston Matthews’ five-game goal and eight-game points streaks, shutting him out with only one shot on goal.

-- In allowing just one goal, Philipp Grubauer had his stingiest performance over a full game since he shut out the Los Angeles Kings, 5-0, back on February 5^th.  It was the first time he faced a shot on goal in a game since he beat the Colorado Avalanche, 5-3, on March 29^th.  He did not face a shot in 6:48 of ice time in the Caps, 6-3 loss to the Arizona Coyotes on March 31^st.

-- Washington dominated the shots on goal at 5-on-5, 31-21, but they were less dominant in shot attempts.  They held a slim 46-44 edge in that department at 5-on-5 (numbers from Corsica.hockey).

In the end…

This was a game, quite literally, men against boys.  Toronto is a very talented, but very young team.  As such, they are prone to inconsistency, of nights when they just can’t convert their skill into results, and they do not yet possess the experience to be able to grind out games consistently in those situations.  The Caps just took care of business, out-shooting the Leafs, 13-3, in the first period and applying consistent, smothering pressure thereafter.  It made for a game that was not in much doubt, start to finish.  If Washington can play such a game consistently, they will be a very hard team to beat in a multi-game series.  If Toronto is the first team up for the Caps in the postseason, they were delivered a message.  For them, not a pleasant one.