Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 11

Week 11 was a successful, if harrowing week for the Washington Capitals.  There was a lot to pack into the five days over which three games were played, not to mention all the extra hockey the Caps bestowed on their fans. Well, we will mention that, too.

Record: 3-0-0

The perfect week was the Caps’ third in their last four weeks and their sixth straight non-losing week.  Starting with a 3-2 overtime win over the Colorado Avalanche on November 16^th, the Caps are 12-2-0, a seven-game and a five-game (current) winning streak wrapped around a pair of losses.  The Caps share the best record in the league since November 16^th with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

One odd part of that record over the last month is that the Caps started it with a pair of extra time wins, the overtime win over Colorado and another overtime win over the Montreal Canadiens three nights later.  The Caps wrapped up Week 11 and extended their current winning streak to five games with a pair of Gimmick wins over the Carolina Hurricanes and the Buffalo Sabres after starting the week with a 6-2 win over the Detroit Red Wings.  Those trick shot wins, coming on back-to-back nights marked the first time in team history that the Caps won in a Gimmick in back-to-back games on back-to-back nights.

Washington finished the week with 20 wins on the season.  It is the fourth time in team history that the Caps had precisely 20 wins through their first 32 games.  In two other seasons they finished with more wins: 1991-1992 (22 wins) and 2015-2016 (24).

Offense: 4.50/game (season: /game 3.72, rank: 2nd)

The Caps had 14 goals in Week 11, and Alex Ovechkin had half of them, his seven goals leading the league for the week (Vancouver’s Brock Boeser had five).  Ovechkin had hat tricks in consecutive games against Detroit and Carolina, and while he did not have a third straight hat trick game, he did have a goal in the hockey portion of the contest against Buffalo, and he had the game-deciding goal in the freestyle competition (you will be pleased to know that it was his 12^th career game-deciding trick shot goal, tying him with Martin Erat on the career game-deciding Gimmick goal list).  The two hat tricks lifted Ovechkin into a tie with Teemu Selanne for third place on the all-time list.  Only Winnipeg’s Patrik Laine has more hat tricks this season than Ovechkin (three).

Almost as impressive was the fact that the other two multiple goal scorers for the week were Brett Connolly and Travis Boyd, with two goals apiece.  Both players accomplished the feat on only five shots on goal.  Connolly finished the week with three goals in his last four games, as did Boyd, who had a three-game goal scoring streak (his first three NHL goals) stopped against Buffalo.

One odd outcome of Ovechkin scoring as many goals as he did was the number of Caps at the top of the points leader board for the week without the benefit of a goal of their own scored.  Ovechkin led the team with seven points (all goals), but four other Caps recorded four or more points without a goal to finish second through fifth in scoring for the week: Nicklas Backstrom (0-6-6), John Carlson (0-5-5), Nic Dowd (0-4-4), and Evgeny Kuznetsov (0-4-4).

Defense: 3.33/game (season: 3.09/game, rank: 18th)

Washington did a decent job of managing shots on goal for the week, allowing 93 in the three games (31.0 per game), not a bad number given that the Caps played an extra ten minutes over those three games.  But, it was in the game that did not go to extra time that the Caps allowed their highest volume of shots on goal for the week (37 to Detroit, but almost half of them – 16 – after the Caps went out to a 5-0 lead after two periods).

It was also in that Detroit game that the Caps recorded their worst shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 for the week (45.0 percent).  All of that was registered when the Caps led.  Even so, the 55 shot attempts that the Caps allowed the Red Wings at fives was not a remarkably high number.  There were 12 instances during the week by ten other teams of higher volumes of 5-on-5 shot attempts allowed.

Otherwise, the Caps dominated the underlying numbers, holding Carolina to 41 5-on-5 shot attempts (55.4 percent) and Buffalo to only 33 5-on-5 shot attempts (62.5 percent).

Goaltending: 3.36 / .891 (season: 2.91 / .907 / 2 SO)

The good part in goaltending in Week 11 was that it was consistent.  The bad part was that it was consistently disappointing (or the play in front was disappointing).  Braden Holtby got the two games to start the week, and Pheonix Copley got the start against Buffalo to end the week.  Holtby stopped 57 of 63 shots in the two games for a .891 save percentage, and while he was over .900 in the first periods of games (.905), he finished under that threshold in the second (.875) and third periods of games (.885).  Copley had similar numbers, only reversed, his above-.900 save percentage coming in the third period against the Sabres, stopping all five shots he faced.

What saved the week for the goaltending was what happened in extra time.  Holtby stopped the only overtime shot he faced against Carolina, and Copley stopped all seven shots directed at him by Buffalo to close the week.  In the freestyle portion of games, Holtby stopped five of six shots against Carolina, while Copley stopped three of four to cement the Caps’ perfect week.

Power Play:  3-for-8/37.5 percent (season: 26.3 percent, rank: 5th)

It was a very good week for the power play, returning to an efficiency rate over 30 percent over a week after finishing under 10 percent in Week 10 (7.7 percent).  It would have been better, though, without having allowed a shorthanded goal by Sebastian Aho in the Caps’ 6-5 extra time win over Carolina.  It was only the third shorthanded goal allowed by the Caps this season; only eight teams have allowed fewer.  Given that the Caps generally play with only one man at the top of the power play formation, that is the sort of low number that should be appreciated more than it is.

As for the offensive side of the power play, three different Caps recorded the three goals – Alex Ovechkin, Brett Connolly, and T.J. Oshie.  No Capital recorded assists on all three goals, but three players did end the week with a pair – Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and John Carlson.  None of this scoring profile should be seen as surprising.

The Caps were generally efficient on the power play in Week 11; they just didn’t have much of an opportunity to take advantage of it.  The eight chances were the lowest among the four three-game weeks this season, and the Caps spent only 12:20 on the power play all week.  Getting 13 shots on goal in that volume of ice time is a good result as well.  The odd part of it might have been that the Caps were 0-for-4 on the power play against Buffalo on home ice.  Carter Hutton, who stopped all seven power play shots he faced, brought a save percentage against the power play of just .849 into the game, which ranked in the bottom half of the league among goalies with at least 50 power play shots faced.

Penalty Killing: 5-for-10 / 50.0 percent (season: 75.2 percent, rank: 27th)

Week 11 was the worst week of the season for the penalty killers.  Things started well enough, the Caps killing off the only shorthanded situation they faced against Detroit to start the week and killed off the first Carolina power play to start the middle game of the week.  But then, things took a turn.  The Caps allowed five goals on the last eight shorthanded situations faced for the week, three of the last five that Carolina had and two in three penalty “kills” against Buffalo. 

The 50 percent “kill” rate was the worst penalty killing efficiency for a week this season.  And it was not as if the shot numbers were overwhelming.  The three opponents for the week combined for 15 shots on goal in 16:23 of ice time, hardly a sign of pelting the net with rubber.  But this penalty kill, at the moment, sucks on toast.  In the last two weeks it is a combined 16-for-25.  In this league, a 64.0 percent penalty kill (not to mention getting outscored, 10-4, on special teams) isn’t going to cut it in the long run.

Faceoffs: 88-for-185 / 47.8 percent (season: 48.1 percent, rank: 25th)

In this category, the Caps are what they are, a somewhat indifferent and unremarkable team in the game’s basic play (though certainly not usually its most consequential one).  And so it was in Week 11.  The Caps did not win in either end, going 24-for-57 in the offensive zone (42.1 percent) and 25-for-52 in the defensive zone (48.1 percent).  They were one win over 50 percent in the neutral zone (39-for-76/51.3 percent).  They did finish over 50 percent in the last game of the week (31-for-58/53.4 percent), but Buffalo is one of those few teams ranked lower in the circle than the Caps.

Among individuals with at least ten draws taken, the usual suspects finished in their usual places.  Nicklas Backstrom and Nic Dowd had pretty good weeks (52.6 percent and 66.7 percent, respectively), while Lars Eller and Evgeny Kuznetsov finished under 50 percent (45.2 and 41.0 percent, respectively).  One odd thing about Kuznetsov’s week was that despite being the top line center, he did not take an offensive zone draw against Buffalo.

Goals by Period:

For the week, the Caps displayed a problem that has plagued them from time to time this season, an inability to finish games strong on offense.  Scoring six first period and six second period goals, the Caps had only two third period strikes for the week and, of course, did not score a goal in either of the overtimes.  It is a bit odd that Washington is a top-five team in first period goals scored (37/tied for fourth) and a top-five team in second period goals scored (48/first), but can’t seem to replicate that success late (31 third period goals/tied for 18^th).  One might say that it is a product of the Caps taking as many leads as they do into the third period (17 times in 32 games), but on the other hand, no team has more losses in regulation when leading after two periods than the Caps (three, tied with Winnipeg).

Year over Year:

The Caps have used this last stretch of a dozen games to pull away from last year’s wins and points pace, one more win and four more points than they were through 32 games last season.  It is worth noting, though, that in the 12 games ending with Game 32 last season, the Caps went 9-3-0.  This is a time of year when the Caps seem inclined to bestow presents on their fans in the form of wins.

Washington continues to far outpace last year’s goal output through the same number of games.  It should be no surprise that the Caps have had 21 games this season with four or more goals, a volume topped only by Tampa Bay (22).  At this time last season, the Caps had 14 such games.

The power play, despite some inconsistency from time to time, continues to outpace last year’s efficiency at a similar point of the season.  The penalty kill, however, continues to disappoint, struggling without success to reach the 80 percent kill threshold.

Shot attempts are still on the underside of 50 percent at 5-on-5, but we keep telling ourselves, “quality, not quantity.”  The grittership numbers are generally better with a notable exception.  Blocked shots…up.  Giveaways…down.  Takeaways…up.  All good trends.  The faceoffs, though, have seen a pronounced negative swing, more than four percentage points lower than last season at this time.  As far as the penalties are concerned, the year-to-year change is primarily a “Wilson” effect.  Through 32 games this season (of which he has played in 13), Tom Wilson has 23 penalty minutes.  Through 32 games last season (in which he dressed for 28 contests), he had 68 penalty minutes, a drop of 45 minutes from last season to this, 78.9 percent of the total drop in team penalty minutes.

In the end…

Results matter, and a three-for-three week extended the Caps’ lead in the Metropolitan Division to six points over the Columbus Blue Jackets.  It also lifted them to 43 points, putting them within two points of the second-best point total in the league (Nashville: 45) with a game in hand.  It is a team that is finding a way to grind out wins when, frankly, they shouldn't.  Add to that the remarkable week put together by Alex Ovechkin, the thrill of extra time hockey, the trick shot finishes (if you like that sort of thing), and Week 11 had something for just about every Caps fan.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (7-0-7, plus-5, 21^st and 22^nd hat tricks of his career (tying Teemu Selanne for third place all-time), 17 shots on goal, 41.2 percent shooting percentage, 22:07 in average ice time, 32 shot attempts, one game-winning goal, one game-deciding Gimmick goal)
• Second Star: Nicklas Backstrom (0-6-6, plus-3, 12^th career game with four or more assists (most since he came into the league/Ryan Getzlaf: 8), 22^nd game with four or more points (tied with Ovechkin for second since he came into the league/Sidney Crosby: 23), 52.6 faceoff winning percentage)
• Third Star: Travis Boyd (2-0-2, plus-2, goals scored on only five shots on goal while averaging only 10:09 in ice time for the week)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 31: Capitals at Hurricanes, December 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It is back on the road for the Washington Capitals as they try to extend their most recent winning streak to four games in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Friday night.  The Carolina Hurricanes will play the role of host, one in which they have been more than a bit more accommodating than they or their fans might like.  After going 3-1-1 in their first five home games this season, which inspired an odd post-win ritual, the ‘Canes are 4-4-2 in their last ten home contests.

Scoring has become something of an issue with Carolina on home ice.  They racked up 13 goals in their first two home wins of the season, an 8-5 win over the New York Rangers followed by a 5-3 win over the Vancouver Canucks.  Since then, the Hurricanes have only 27 goals in 12 games on home ice (2.25 per game).  There has been a bit of an uptick recently, though, Carolina being 3-1-1 in their most recent five home contests.

Carolina, a team that has not reached the postseason since 2008-2009, has had to turn to youth to claw their way back to competitiveness.  And oh, have they done that.  Of the 26 skaters to dress for the club so far this season, nine are classified as rookies.  Forwards Andrei Svechnikov and Warren Foegele of that group have appeared in every game thus far.  Svechnikov has been the biggest contributor on offense of this rookie class so far (6-7-13, minus-1 in 29 games).  Taken with the second-overall pick in last summer’s entry draft, he made the leap directly to the NHL from amateur hockey (the Barrie Colts in the Ontario Hockey League).  He got off to a fast start, too, with two goals and two assists in his first four games in the NHL.  Then, as happens with youngsters from time to time, he hit a dry spell, going seven games without a point.  He has turned things around, though, going 3-5-8, plus-1, over his last 14 games despite getting less than 16 minutes of ice time per game in that span (tied for third on the team in points).  The bad news here for the Caps is that Carolina has earned a standings point in every game this season in which Svechnikov recorded a point (8-0-2).  This will be Svechnikov’s first appearance against Washington.

Not a rookie, but certainly part of the Hurricanes’ focus on youth, Sebastian Aho has emerged as the most dangerous offensive threat for Carolina.  Now in his third season with the team, the 21-year old is the team’s leader in goals (61) and points (142) over that span.  His year to year improvement has been significant, going from 24 goals and 49 points in his rookie season to 29 goals and 65 points last year.  With eight goals and 28 points so far this season, he is on a pace to finish 23-57-80 this season.  His production has a consistent aspect to it, too.  Aho has points in 21 of 29 games going into the team’s game in Montreal against the Canadiens on Thursday.  There is an odd and somewhat disturbing number attached to his performance to date, though: “18.”  Carolina is 7-0-0 in the games in which Aho skated less than 18 minutes, 6-12-4 in the 22 games in which he logged more than 18 minutes of ice time.  Aho is 5-6-11, even, in eight career games against the Caps.

It might be a bit surprising at this stage that the team’s leading goal scorer would be Micheal Ferland, but his 11 goals leads the club.  Ferland, drafted in the fifth round of the 2010 entry draft by the Calgary Flames, was traded to Carolina with defensemen Dougie Hamilton and Adam Fox for center Elias Lindholm and defenseman Noah Hanafin last June.  He started his tour in Carolina on a hot streak, recording six goals in his first nine games.  He has since come back to earth a bit, going 5-1-6 over his last 16 games.  This goal scoring pace is still a bit higher than the 14 goals per 82 games pace he had over four seasons in Calgary.  He goes into this game without a point over his last four contests.  Ferland (who is listed as day-to-day recuperating from a concussion) is 1-0-1, minus-1, in five career games against the Caps.

1.  No team in the NHL gets the puck on net with the frequency of the Hurricanes.  Carolina averages 38.4 shots per game, tops in the league.  They also happen to be the stingiest team in allowing shots on goal, averaging 27.5 shots allowed per game.

2.  Carolina is a team that has some history not committing penalties, and that is the case this season.  The 104 infractions charged is tied for third-fewest in the league through Wednesday’s games, with Pittsburgh.

3.  Blocking shots…not Carolina’s thing.  The Hurricanes are last in the league in that statistic (359).

4.  Perhaps Carolina doesn’t have to block shots because they are so adept at taking away the puck from opponents.  They have been credited with the second-highest number of takeaways this season (331), behind only Vegas (350).

5.  Shots on goal, shots allowed on goal, takeaways…the Hurricanes’ high ranking in those areas suggest they should have good underlying numbers.  They do; their 57.27 percent shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 is best in the league, and by a large margin (San Jose and Vegas are at 54.79 percent).

1. The Caps have had only 38 power play chances on the road so far this season.  Only three teams have had fewer: Detroit (37), St. Louis (37), and Los Angeles (35).

2.  Washington’s power play has a distinct Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde quality to it.  While the Caps are humming at 34.5 percent at home, second-best in the league, they are at only 15.8 percent on the road (23^rd).

3.  No team in the Eastern Conference has been shorthanded on the road more often that the Caps.  They have been shorthanded 56 times so far this season, through Wednesday, tied with the Boston Bruins.

4.  Only the San Jose Sharks have taken more leads to the first intermission (15) than the Caps (14), who are 10-3-1 in those situations.

5.  The Caps could stand finishing games better.  While they have a plus-7 goal differential in the first periods of games this season and a plus-16 differential in the second periods of games, they are minus-4 in the third periods of games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Justin Williams

Justin Williams has had a full, rich career.  Now in his 18^th season in the NHL, winner of three Stanley Cups, a Con Smythe Trophy winner as the MVP of the 2014 postseason with Los Angeles, nicknamed “Mr. Game 7” for his exploits in the deciding game of playoff series, he is now in the last year of his current contract with the Hurricanes.  If he plays in 81 games this season (he has yet to miss a game), he will have played more games as a Hurricane (428) than he did for any of the other three franchises for which he played (Washington, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia).  His days as a prolific scorer are in his past (he has not had a 30-goal or 60-point season since 2006-2007), but he is still a consistent contributor (he has not averaged less than half a point per game since 2008-2009). 

That he is the oldest skater on the club at age 37 complicates his contract situation going forward, but his vast experience and a certain impish bent provides a certain steadiness and calm in the face of the stress of the day-to-day NHL that a young team can find valuable.  He seems to be coming around in terms of his numbers, too.  After recording just one goal in his first 19 games, he has five goals in his last ten games, including goals in two straight contests going into Thursday’s game against Montreal.  Williams is 14-23-37, plus-11, in 47 career games against the Capitals.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

As if 2017-2018 was not enough – his seventh Maurice Richard Trophy as top goal scorer, Con Smythe Trophy as the league playoff MVP, his first Stanley Cup, and becoming a father for the first time – he is now playing beyond the moment in a sense.  His is now a pursuit of history.  Thirty-three year olds with more than 1,000 regular season games and more than 100 postseason games are supposed to be slowing down.  Ovechkin, however seems to be just warming up, or at least fighting Father Time to a draw.  He has 25 goals in 30 games so far to lead the league, but as if that was not enough, consider that over his last 82 games, including the 2018 postseason, he has 57 goals, a number that top every regular season goal total of his career, save his 65-goal season in 2007-2008. 

His production at this age, entirely consistent his history coming into this season, has people wondering if the long thought of as untouchable record of 894 goals set by Wayne Gretzky can be run down.   He remains the spark that ignites the Capitals engine, too.  He has goals in 18 of the Caps’ 30 games to date, and Washington has a 15-2-1 record in those games.  He will bring a pair of impressive streaks into the game against Carolina – goals in four straight contests (including a hat trick against Detroit in his last outing) and points in 12 straight games.  One would have to think he has a good chance to add to both; he is 36-49-85 in 73 career games against Carolina.

In the end…

Carolina is making progress toward becoming a reliably competitive team, and they appear to have a solid core of young players to lift them to the next level.  However, they have holes – they can struggle to score at times, and their goaltending does not inspire a lot of confidence (that stinginess in allowing shots comes in handy).  At the other end, the Caps are getting healthier just as their team is in the midst of perhaps its most consistent run of solid hockey this season (10-2-0 in their last dozen games).  If the Caps can jump on this team early, it could be a short evening.  But if the Caps are lethargic and let this club hang around, Carolina can make it a difficult night.  There will be no sleepwalking to a win here.

Capitals 4 – Hurricanes 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 30: Red Wings at Capitals, December 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to Capital One Arena after a successful road trip to host the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday night.  The Caps went 2-1-0 on their just completed three-game road swing to improve their road record to 9-5-1.  Washington will be looking for their ninth win on home ice this season when they take on Detroit.

As for the Red Wings, they would have to qualify as one of the league’s surprise teams, despite resting in sixth place in the Atlantic Division.  Their 13-13-4 record does not diminish their improvement much (but we will get to that).  After starting the season with a ghastly 1-7-2 record after ten games, Detroit is 12-6-2 in their last 20 games and 6-2-0 in their last eight road games after opening the season with five road losses (0-4-1).

The Red Wings are a team well-removed from the glory days of 25 straight playoff appearances and four Stanley Cups.  Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, and Nicklas Lidstrom are gone.  The new generation of Red Wings centers, in a manner of speaking, on youngsters such as Dylan Larkin.  The 15^th overall pick of the 2014 entry draft is now in his fourth season with Detroit and has become the player the club leans on most heavily for offensive production.  His 11 goals is tied for the team lead, while his 28 points lead all Red Wing skaters.  Those numbers put the young center roughly on a pace toward last season’s 16-47-63 in 82 games.  He has been hot of late, posting three straight two-point games (1-5-6 overall) going into Monday night’s contest with Los Angeles.  He has been a consistent contributor this season so far, not going more than two games without a point through 30 games played.  Those 30 games point to his durability, Larkin having missed only four games in three-plus seasons.  In 10 career games against Washington, Larkin is 1-4-5, plus-2.

Another of the young guard in whom Detroit is putting a measure of trust is forward Andreas Athanasiou.  The 24-year old was signed to a two-year contract extension last July that will pay him a total of $6 million and allowed the parties to avoid arbitration.  He, like Larkin, is in his fourth season with the club and is tied with Larkin for the team lead in goals (11) through Sunday.  With seven assists to go with his goal total, Athanasiou seems to be a good bet to eclipse his career-high of 33 points set last season.  The odd part of his contributions so far are their relationship to wins, or the lack of them.  Athanasiou has goals in nine games this season, but the Red Wings are only 5-4-0 in those games (5-8-4 when he did not record a goal).  Detroit is only 6-5-1 when he recorded a point, 4-7-3 when he did not.  The Wings are 3-1-0 in the four games he missed earlier this season.  He is 4-1-5, minus-1, in seven career games against the Caps.

The youngest defenseman on the roster is one for whom big things might be expected.  In what was a defense-heavy top of the 2016 draft, Dennis Cholowski was the eighth blueliner picked, that with the 20^th overall pick by Detroit.  It took him a few years to reach the big time, but he broke through this season, and he is making his presence felt.  His four goals ranks third among all rookie defensemen, and he is tied for third among rookie defensemen in points (12).  No rookie defenseman has more power play points than Cholowski through Sunday (seven), and he is one of only six rookie defensemen with a game-winning goal.  As is the case with many rookies, though, even very good ones, there are slumps and pauses.  Going into Monday’s game against Los Angeles, Cholowski carries his longest streak without a point this season – six games – and his minutes have been pared back, to an average of 16:40 over those six games after averaging 19:38 over his first 22 games.  He went without a point in the Red Wings’ 3-1 loss to the Caps on November 23^rd, his only career appearance against Washington. 

1.  About that improvement over their poor start.  After going 1-7-2 to start the season, Detroit went 9-2-0 in their next 11 games.  However, starting with their 3-1 loss to the Caps on November 23^rd, Detroit is 3-4-2 going into Monday nights’ game against the Los Angeles Kings.

2.  Gustav Nyquist leads the Red Wings for December in quite a few categories: goals (four, with Frans Nielsen), assists (five, with Larkin), points (nine), and plus/minus (plus-5).

3.  Only two teams allow more shots on goal per game than the Red Wings (34.1): Anaheim (35.4) and Ottawa (38.3).

4.  Nobody blows out Detroit.  Well, almost nobody.  The Red Wings have lost only two games this season by three or more goals, fewest such losses in the league (tied with Calgary), and they came in consecutive games back in October, an 8-2 loss in Boston to the Bruins and a 7-3 loss in Montreal against the Canadiens.

5.  Since those back-to-back losses allowing a total of 15 goals, Detroit has allowed more than three goals in regulation four times in 24 games and only one of those games on the road (a 5-4 overtime win over Toronto last Thursday).

1.  The Caps are running well behind last season in one respect.  They have five wins by one goal so far this season, on a pace for 14 such wins.  They had 20 one-goal wins last season.

2.  In the Eastern Conference, only Tampa Bay has a better winning percentage when opponents score first (.667) than the Caps (.471 on an 8-6-3 record).

3.  The Caps are the most efficient shooters in the league with a 12.2 shooting percentage as a team.

4.  Only Tampa Bay has more 5-on-3 goals this season (four) than the Caps (three, tied with Florida and Boston).

5.  Washington has more 5-on-6 goals scored (seven) than any team in the East except Philadelphia (eight).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Detroit: Mike Green

On a team in which four rookie defensemen have dressed this season, Mike Green is now a mentor more than the Young Gun he was with the Capitals.  He is one of four defensemen with the club age 33 or older (he is 33) who will, among their other duties, be asked to shepherd the likes of Dennis Cholowski and, to a lesser extent perhaps (owing to their limited number of games played), Filip Hronek, Joe Hicketts, and Libor Sulak.  Not that Green is merely a graybeard imparting advice.  Of 165 defensemen to have dressed for at least 20 games through Sunday, Green ranked tenth in points per game played (0.76 on 16 points in 21 games).  It is his best points per game since he recorded 76 points in 75 games (1.01 per game) with Washington in 2009-2010, the latter of two consecutive seasons in which he was a Norris Trophy finalist.  Not bad for a player who missed the last nine games last season to a neck injury and the first nine games this season to illness.  And beware when Green does record a point.  Detroit is 9-2-1 in the 12 games in which he had at least one, 3-5-1 in the nine games in which he was held without a point.  Green is still looking for his first goal against his old club; he has one assist and is minus-7 in eight games against the Caps.

Washington: Dmitry Orlov

After a sluggish start to the season, Dmitry Orlov is starting to put things together in the offensive end of the ice.  He was 0-2-2, minus-8, over his first 16 games despite getting almost 23 minutes in ice time per night.  He broke out of his slump in a big way with two goals and an assist against the Minnesota Wild on November 13^th.  Starting with that game, Orlov is 2-7-9, plus-4, over his last 13 games with a bit less ice time (22:29 per game).  He still has some climbing to do, though; his minus-4 is still worst among defensemen.  Even there, improvement is evident.  Orlov was a “minus” player in nine of his first 16 games, but he has been one only four times in his last 13 games.  What he might not yet be, though, is a dependable minutes eater.  The Caps are 1-3-1 in games in which Orlov skated more than 24 minutes this season, 16-6-2 in games in which he skated 24 minutes or less.  Orlov is 1-2-3, plus-1, in 12 career games against Detroit.

In the end…

It would be way too easy to take the Red Wings lightly.  They won only 63 games over the past two seasons; this is a team that once won 62 games in a single season not all that long ago (ok, 1995-1996).  The last time they won fewer games in consecutive seasons was 1989-1990/1990-1991 when they won 62 games, and a young left winger scored 46 goals over the two seasons – Gerard Gallant, now the coach of the Vegas Golden Knights.  Detroit can score; they have four or more goals in five of their last seven games.  Their problem recently has been keeping pucks out of the net (3.86 per game over their last seven games).  It could make for something of a shootout at Capital One on Tuesday.

Capitals 5 – Red Wings 3

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 10

There are two good things that can be said about Week 10 for the Washington Capitals.  First, it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish.  Second, how the Caps finished allowed them to keep the top spot in the Metropolitan Division at week’s end.

Record: 2-2-0

The seven-game winning streak that the Caps brought into Week 10 ended on Sunday in particularly ugly fashion.  Fourteen minutes into the second period, the Caps had a 5-1 lead on the Anaheim Ducks.  The Ducks scored in the 15^th minute, the first of what would be five unanswered goals over less than 21 minutes to pin a 6-5 loss on the Caps at Capital One Arena.

Two nights later, the Caps returned to the scene of their greatest triumph in team history, T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, where they won Game 5 of last spring’s Stanley Cup final and the first Stanley Cup in team history.  History did not repeat itself, the Caps dropping a 5-3 decision and losing forward Tom Wilson to a concussion, the victim of an outside-the-rules hit by Ryan Reaves.

It might have made for an ugly week, but the Caps clawed out a 4-2 win in Arizona, their first win in regulation in the desert since 2006, when the Caps took a 6-1 decision, and Alex Ovechkin scored what is known simply as, “The Goal.” 

Washington closed out the week in fine fashion with another win over a playoff foe vanquished last spring, a 4-0 shutout of the Columbus Blue Jackets that widened their division lead to three points through Week 10.

Offense: 4.00/game (season: 3.62/game, rank: 3rd)

One thing that the Caps have not had much trouble with lately is scoring goals.  They scored four or more goals in three of the four games in Week 10, bring their total to eight games with four or more goals in their last ten contests.  As one would expect, that number matters.  The Caps are 14-2-2 when they score four or more goals.

The Caps spread things around smartly in the four games.  Twelve players shared in the 16 goals scored, led by Alex Ovechkin and Jakub Vrana with three apiece.  Ovechkin’s three goals propelled him into the top spot in the goal scoring rankings through ten weeks (22).  For Vrana, though, it might have been a statement week.  He had his first two-goal game of the season in the loss to Vegas, the second multi-goal game of his career.  The three goals for the week gave him nine for the season and put him on a 25-goal pace.  All nine of his goals so far have been at even strength, second on the team to Ovechkin (15).

Sixteen different skaters recorded points for the week, and things were spread out here, too.  Three skaters finished with five points apiece in the four games – Ovechkin, Brett Connolly, and Evgeny Kuznetsov.  Connolly has been hot in a quiet sort of way lately.  He finished the week with a four-game points streak and is 2-5-7 in his last seven games.  While he is a bit behind his goal scoring pace of the past two seasons in which he finished with 15 goals, his 18 points to date put him on a pace to clear with ease his career high (27 last season).

Defense: 3.25/game (season: 3.07/game, rank: 19th)

None of the seven teams playing four games in Week 10 allowed fewer shots on goal than the Caps (110).  They allowed fewer than 30 shots in all four games, tying their longest such streak of the season, Games 16-19 in mid-November, when they allowed a total of 100 shots over four games.  The odd thing about those four games is that the Caps also had a 2-2-0 record.

It made for a good week in the underlying numbers, the Caps finishing with a shot attempts-for percentage of 53.22, although there was an odd inversion there.  Usually, that number is higher in situations in which a team is behind, owing to an increased tendency to open things up to erase a deficit.  Not so with the Caps in Week 10.  It was only in situations in which they were behind that they finished under 50 percent (47.62).

That the Caps lost their games when allowing six goals to Anaheim and five to Vegas should not be surprising.  Washington had not been a team that can outscore its defensive lapses.  Through ten weeks they are 1-7-3 when allowing four or more goals, and the lone win came in overtime (5-4 over Montreal on November 19^th).

Goaltending: 3.04 / .890 / 1 SO (season: 2.88 / .909 / 2 SO)

As one would expect in a week when the four games split into two losses and two wins, the goaltending followed along those lines.  Braden Holtby got the call in the first two games of the week and was not sharp.  Over the two games he was uniformly sluggish in all three periods, posting save percentages of .875 in the first periods, .895 in the second periods, and .647 in the third periods of the losses to Anaheim and Vegas.

Holtby gave way to Pheonix Copley in the third game of the week against the Arizona Coyotes, and Copley was on his game.  He turned away 27 of 29 shots, but what made the performance noteworthy in the week’s context was stopping all ten third period shots he faced (Holtby stopped on 11 of 17 third period shots over the first two games of the week).  Copley continues to impress in a backup role.  Since allowing six goals on 36 shots in his first appearance this season , a 6-0 loss to the New Jersey Devils on October 11^th, he is 6-1-1, 2.57, .913, solid numbers for a goalie in his first permanent tour as a backup netminder.

The night off worked for Holtby, who returned to the net against the Columbus Blue Jackets and pitched a 28-save shutout in a 4-0 win.  It was Holtby’s second shutout of the season, his first since Opening Night against the Boston Bruins, after not recording a single shutout in last year’s regular season.  The shutout was the 34^th of Holtby’s career, bringing him within one of the franchise record held by Olaf Kolzig (35).

Power Play:  1-for-13/7.7 percent (season: 25.3 percent, rank: 7th)

The power play struggled mightily in Week 10, making one wonder what this week might have been had the power play even closely resembled what it was in the early part of the season.  The 1-for-13 week was the Caps’ worst performance of the season in what tied for their highest volume of power play chances for a single week (13 in Week 6).

It might have been the worst performance of the Caps’ power play over a single week in several seasons.  The 1-for-13 for the week was bad enough, but it was a well-deserved result.  The Caps managed only ten power play shots on goal in a whopping 26:18 of power play ice time.  The strangest thing about the power play, though, might be that it has been nine games since Alex Ovechkin recorded a power play goal (November 19^th against Montreal).  Tom Wilson had the only power play goal of the week, that coming against Anaheim, on  what was his only power play shot on goal for the week.  It bears noticing that with T.J. Oshie and Tom Wilson out at the end of the week with injuries, two right-handed shot players in the middle of the 1-3-1 power play are not available.

Penalty Killing: 11-for-15 / 73.3 percent (season: 77.6 percent, rank: 21st)

After two weeks in which the Caps killed 20 of 21 shorthanded situations (95.2 percent), the Caps reverted to earlier season form.  That is not a good thing.  But here was the week in microcosm.  The Caps were awful killing penalties in the first two games (5-for-9) but perfect in the last two games (6-for-6).

And, it was not as if the Caps didn’t get a lot of work shorthanded.  They spent 26:01 down a man for the week and allowed 24 total shots on goal, half of those to the Vegas Golden Knights in the 5-3 loss in the second game of the week.  If there was an odd result this week it is that neither the Caps nor the Arizona Coyotes registered a power play shot on goal in the Caps’ 4-2 win.

Faceoffs: 108-for-237 / 45.6 percent (season: 48.2 percent, rank: 24th)

It was not a great week for the Caps in the circle, not a terrible one, either.  In other words, rather typical.  What was disappointing was being under 50 percent for the week in all three zones – 45.5 percent in the offensive zone, 48.6 percent in the defensive zone, and 43.2 percent in the neutral zone.  Onlyi the 56.5 percent effort against Anaheim (35-for-62) saved the week to any extent.

Of the four skaters to take at least ten draws for the week, only Lars Eller was at 50 percent, and that is precisely where he finished on 23-for-46.  Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov finished under 50 percent in all three zones, not necessarily a surprising result for Kuznetsov, but it was for Backstrom.

Goals by Period:

Another case of not being how you start, but how you finish.  In the first two games of the week, the Caps finished horribly, allowing a total of seven goals in the third periods of the two games while scoring only one of their own.  It was not surprising that the results were losses.  The other two games were a different story, the Caps shutting out both Arizona and Columbus in the third periods of those games while scoring three goals of their own in the two wins.  That was the difference between a mediocre week and a perfect one when one considers that over the first 40 minutes of games for the week, the Caps outscored the four opponents by an aggregate 12-6 margin.

Year over Year:

The Caps are slightly ahead of their 2017-2018 pace. Squeezing out points in extra time three times this season versus only once at this point last season.  Scoring is up more than 19 percent compared to this time last season, while scoring defense is roughly the same.  Shots taken and allowed show good movement, up in the former and down in the latter from last year.

Despite the recent struggles on the power play, the Caps are still ahead of last year’s conversion rate, but the penalty kill has slipped a bit from last year’s unimpressive level of penalty kills.

The grittership numbers are, as they have been for much of the season, a mixed bag.  Faceoffs are down, still, while the shot attempts at 5-on-5 have tilted a bit more in the Caps favor.  Hits are down, but blocked shots are up, indicating a mixed bag on possession as both are indicators with the opponent having the puck.  Penalties are down quite a bit, a good thing for a team that struggles with the penalty kill as much as the Caps do.

In the end…

The glass-half-full interpretation of the week might be that the Caps made something of it after a ghastly start, blowing a four-goal lead in the second half of their game against Anaheim and unable to grab a win in the desert against Vegas.  They did beat an Arizona team that has been quite an annoyance in recent years, winning for the first time in regulation there in more than a decade.  Then, they took advantage of a singularly uninspiring effort by Columbus to keep the Blue Jackets' cannon silent.  It was not a good week, but not a bad one, either, and they remain atop the division.  That is something on which to build.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (3-2-5, plus-2, 18 shots on goal, 32 shot attempts, finished week on 11-game points streak, three-game goal streak)
• Second Star: Jakub Vrana (3-1-4, plus-3, 8 SOG)
• Third Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (1-4-5, plus-5, 8 SOG)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 29: Capitals at Blue Jackets, December 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their three-game road trip on Saturday night with a visit to Columbus, Ohio.  Columbus… “Cowtown”… “The Discovery City”… home of THE Ohio State University (as if there are any impostors).  And also home of the Columbus Blue Jackets, who are fast on the heels of the Caps in the race to win the Metropolitan Division this season.  Washington enters the contest with 35 standings points, one ahead of the Jackets, who have one more win in regulation and overtime (16) than do the Caps (15).  Both teams have played 28 games.

These teams do seem welded at the hip in other respects, too.  For instance, both teams broke two-game losing streaks on Thursday night with wins on the road. The Caps beat the Arizona Coyotes, 4-2, while Columbus knocked off the Philadelphia Flyers, 4-3, in overtime.  Both clubs avoided suffering a third straight loss for the first time this season.

There is something else these two teams share that is a bit surprising, a bottom-third-in-the-league scoring defense.  Washington is 21^st in the league through Thursday’s games (3.18 goals allowed per game), while the Blue Jackets are 25^th at 3.36 goals allowed per game.  That ranking and number start with goaltending, and that focuses attention on Sergei Bobrovsky.  It has not been one of the nine-year veteran’s best seasons.  His 3.04 goals against average in 20 appearances is his career worst to date, topping the 3.02 mark he had with Philadelphia in 29 appearances in 2011-2012, his second season in the league.  His .901 save percentage is not his worst to date, but he can see the bottom of the well from where he is (.899 in that same 2011-2012 season). 

Bobrovsky is without a shutout this season, and while it is still early, he has never finished any of his previous six seasons in Columbus without one.  He has been relentlessly streaky this season.  After alternating losses and wins in his first four appearances, he went on a three-game losing streak, which became four losses in five games, then had a four-game winning streak, a loss, and then another three-game winning streak.  He followed that with a two-game losing streak, the second of which might have been the most ghastly performance by a goalie this season – eight goals allowed on 26 shots in 46 minutes of a 9-6 loss to the Calgary Flames last Tuesday.  He did beat the Flyers in the overtime win on Thursday, so there might be another streak in the offing that would not be good news for Caps fans.  On the other hand, he has a save percentage of .848 over his last five games.  Bobrovsky is 8-10-4, 2.93, .904 in 23 career games against Washington.

Cam Atkinson is among the hotter goal scorers in the league these days.  He has 13 goals in his last dozen games since November 10^th, tied with Winnipeg’s Patrik Laine over that span for most in the league.  He scored goals in nine of those 13 games and has a pair of hat tricks to show for it as well, one in a 4-1 win over the Hurricanes in Carolina on November 17^th, the other in the 9-6 loss to Calgary last Tuesday.  Atkinson, with 19 goals this season, is already within five of the total he had last year (24) and is more than half way to his career high (35) set two years ago.  His next goal will give him 20, his sixth straight season with 20 or more goals.  He would join Alex Ovechkin as the only players to have done six times in six seasons, although there are a number of players who are likely to reach that mark later this season.  Watch Atkinson’s ice time.  In six games this season when he skated more than 20 minutes, Columbus is 1-3-2.  He is 9-7-16, plus-3, in 22 career games against the Capitals.

Columbus spreads their blue line scoring around.  Every one of the six defensemen to dress for more than ten games this season has a goal.  At the top of that list are Seth Jones and Zach Werenski with five apiece.  Each of them also have 11 assists and 16 points.  But whereas Jones has two game-winning goals, one of those in overtime, and is a plus-3 this season, Werenski has no game-winners and is a minus-7.  Werenski has been a trigger man on the Blue Jackets’ power play, his seven assists on the man advantage more than double the total of the other eight defensemen to dress this season (three).  He also has the only power play goal scored by a Columbus defenseman this season.  However, he has been on the ice for 41 of the 94 goals scored against Columbus this season, far more than any other defenseman (Ryan Murray: 34).  He’s had a particularly tough time of late, going minus-5 over his last three games, although he did record his 100^th career point in the 9-6 loss to Calgary.  Werenski is 2-2-4, even, in 10 career games against the Caps.

1.  Columbus is one of three teams this season to score seven or more goals in three games (Calgary and Tampa Bay are the others).  They did it in a 7-4 win St. Louis on October 25^th, in a 7-3 win over Florida on November 15^th, and in a 7-5 win at Detroit on November 26^th.  They also happen to be the only team in the league to have allowed eight or more goals more than once, losing an 8-2 decision at Tampa on October 13^th and dropping that 9-6 decision to Calgary on December 4^th.

2.  The Blue Jackets have the second-worst power play on home ice in the league (12.8 percent).  Only Arizona (12.5 percent) is worse.  Their five power play goals on home ice is fewest in the league.

3.  Columbus’ home penalty kill is almost as bad as its home power play – third-worst in the league (72.2 percent).  Only Calgary (72.1 percent) and Detroit (69.2 percent) are worse.

4.  Columbus is one of three teams with a perfect record when leading after two periods (10-0-0).  Vegas (11-0-0) and Toronto (15-0-0) are the others.

5.  The Blue Jackets do a good job of playing within the rules.  They have been charged with 96 penalties this season.  Only three teams have been hit with fewer penalties: Carolina (92), Pittsburgh (91), and Toronto (77).

1.  Of the 23 Columbus goaltenders to have dressed against Washington in the all-time series, only one of them ever pitched a shutout against the Caps.  Steve Mason did it twice, both times by 3-0 scores, a 26-save effort on November 29, 2009 and a 45-save blanking on January 9, 2009.

2.  Washington is 4-1-2 in their last seven visits to Columbus in the regular season (7-1-2 counting playoffs), but that loss in regulation was in their most recent regular season trip to Ohio, a 5-1 loss last February 26^th.

3.  If John Carlson gets one point in this game, he will tie Adam Oates for 18^th place in points in Caps history.  Carlson has 362 points.

4.  Only Colorado has lost fewer games in regulation when trailing after two periods (two) than the Caps (three).  Then again the Caps have won only one such game.  The seven games they trailed after 40 minutes is second-fewest in the league (Dallas: 6).

5.  Washington has more wins when outshot by opponent (10) than they have total games outshooting opponents (nine).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Columbus: Artemi Panarin

With seven goals in 27 games, Artemi Panarin is on a pace for 21 goals this season.  That would be the lowest goal total of his four-year career (he had 27 with Columbus last season).  But don’t get the idea that Panarin is slumping.  He’s more moving things around.  He has 24 assists to go with those seven goals, almost half way to his career high (55 last season), and his 31 points put him on a pace to finish with a career-high 93 points. 

The odd part of his production so far is that so little of it has come on power plays.  Last season he was 7-14-21 on power plays in 82 games.  So far this season, he is 1-4-5 despite leading the team in power play ice time per game (3:12).  He goes into this game with two assist in each of his last two games and three of his last five contests.  He would appear to be the straw that stirs the drink for the Blue Jackets, Columbus is 6-0-0 in games in which Panarin has goals this season, 13-2-1 in games in which he recorded a point.  On the other hand, the Blue Jackets are 2-8-1 when Panarin failed to record a point and 9-10-2 when he did not score a goal.  He is 3-4-7, plus-3, in nine career games against Washington.

Washington: Nic Dowd

One could reasonably say that when the Caps signed center Nic Dowd to a one-year/$650,000 contract on July 1^st, it was to replace the outgoing Jay Beagle, who would sign a four-year/$12 million deal with the Vancouver Canucks.  The Caps got a player of similar size, the same right-handed shot, only cheaper and more than four years younger.  But while Beagle grew into a substantial contributor for being largely a fourth line player (38 goals in 279 games over his last four seasons in Washington), Dowd’s numbers were quite a bit more modest.  In two full NHL seasons split between the Los Angeles Kings and Vancouver, he had just nine goals in 126 games. 

Dowd opened the season with promise, though, scoring a goal on Opening Night.  Then again, who didn’t?  The Caps ran up a 7-0 win over the Boston Bruins on banner-raising night.  Dowd followed that up by going without a goal in his next 16 games with only one assist on his ledger.  Dowd got an assist in the Caps’ 3-1 win over the Detroit Red Wings on November 23^rd, though, and it started him off on a nice run of late.  Over his last seven games, starting with that win against Detroit, Dowd is 3-2-5, plus-3, despite averaging only 10:32 in ice time per game.  With four goals in 24 games overall, he seems a decent bet to push past his career high in goals – six in 70 games with Los Angeles in 2016-2017.  He will be facing Columbus for the fourth time in his career and will be looking for his first point.

In the end…

It is perhaps a bit early for a “statement” game, but both teams might be looking to send a message.  For the Caps, who lost the first game of this season's series, 2-1, in Washington on November 9th, this is where the Stanley Cup journey began in earnest last spring after dropping the first two games of their opening round series against the Blue Jackets in Washington.  But for Lars Eller’s game-winning goal in the second overtime of Game 3 that set everything to come after in motion, this would be probably just another mid-December game on the schedule.  They want to remind Columbus of their place in the pecking order of things.

For Columbus, the message is a bit more complex.  They have had to deal with the despair that comes from the knowledge that they had that opening series on their racket with two wins and then two games to play on the ice sheet these teams will occupy on Saturday night.  It is a new season, and these teams have already met once, but memories linger.  In the here and now, Columbus might want to send a message that they deserve to hang with the champions on the merits of their talent and will, that being a point behind the Caps is no fluke, despite the lack of marquee names on the roster.

This contest that pits two very similar teams in terms of recent history makes this a rivalry that is becoming one of the more interesting divisional rivalries between cities that one would not necessarily associate with such things.  But hey, it’s hockey.

Capitals 4 – Blue Jackets 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 28: Capitals at Coyotes, December 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals continue their road trek on Thursday night when they visit the Arizona Coyotes at Gila River Arena in Glendale, Arizona.  The Caps go into this contest having lost their last two games, their first instance of consecutive losses since they lost to the Columbus Blue Jackets and these Coyotes in Games 15 and 16 in November.

Since Arizona inflicted that second straight loss on the Caps, a 4-1 win at Capital One Arena on Veterans Day, they are 5-4-1, but just 2-3-1 on home ice.  The Coyotes have had a tough time scoring over that ten-game stretch with only 23 goals scored.  The silver lining there is that they have spread the scoring around, 11 skaters sharing the 23 goals.  Clayton Keller and Lawson Crouse share the lead in that department with three goals apiece over the last ten games.

Keller, taken by the Coyotes with the seventh overall pick in the 2016 entry draft, the young center is putting together a sophomore season that looks a lot like his rookie season last year.  With almost a third of the Coyotes’ schedule complete, Keller has eight goals, just over a third of the way to his 23 goals recorded last season. 

The difference is in scoring at strength.  Last season, Keller scored six goals on power plays, while this season he has yet to hit the back of the net on a man advantage.  The odd part of it is that Keller is averaging more ice time per game on power plays (3:43) than he did last season (3:01).  On the other hand, he is averaging fewer shots per game on power plays so far this season (0.46 per game) than he did last year (0.77).  He does have seven power play assists, though, a number half way to the 14 he posted last season.  Keller is 2-2-4, plus-3, in three career games against Washington.

Crouse is another youngster taken high in the draft, but one following a different path than Keller.  Taken with the 11^th overall pick in the 2015 entry draft by the Florida Panthers, the left winger was traded barely a year later with Dave Bolland to the Coyotes for a third round pick in the 2017 draft and a second round pick in the 2018 draft.  He dressed for 72 games in 2016-2017, posting five goals and 12 points.  He followed that up, however, with a season of only 11 games with one goal, his only point recorded last season. 

Crouse did record 15 goals and 32 points for the AHL Tucson Roadrunners last year, perhaps a necessary developmental step.  He started slowly this season with only two goals in his first 15 games, but he does have those three in his last ten contests.  Crouse has two games this season in which he logged 12 or more penalty minutes.  Only Brad Marchand and Antoine Roussel have more (three apiece).  One of those instances happened to involve a fracas with Roussel in a 4-1 win over Vancouver on October 25^th, earning a roughing and misconduct penalty, while Roussel was hit with a double-roughing minor and a misconduct.  Crouse is 0-1-1, even, in two career games against the Caps.

Goaltending has been a revolving door since the Coyotes face the Caps last month.  Four goalies have appeared in those games – Antti Raanta, Darcy Kuemper, Hunter Miska, and Adin Hill.  All but Miska started at least one game in that stretch.  Hill has started each of the last three games for the Coyotes and has been quite efficient, stopping 79 of 81 shots (.975 save percentage).  He has only five NHL games under his belt this season, all of them since November 25^th, and what a start he has had. 

Hill’s first two appearances were in relief of Raanta.  He stopped the only shot he faced in a 6-1 loss to the Calgary Flames, but after replacing Raanta after two periods with the Coyotes down, 3-1, against the Minnesota Wild, he stopped all five third period shots he faced while the Coyotes came back with three goals to give Hill his first win of the season.  He followed up that appearance with a 29-save shutout of the Nashville Predators in Nashville, giving him 35 saves on the first 35 shots he faced in 2018-2019.  He extended his shutout streak to 41 shots and 117:23 before allowing his first goal of the season, 1:26 into the second period of the Coyotes’ 6-1 win over the St. Louis Blues last Saturday.  In five appearances covering 215:46 of ice time to date, Hill has stopped 85 of 87 shots.  “Hot” does not describe his start adequately.  If he gets the call, it will be his first appearance against the Caps.

1.  No team kills penalties like the Coyotes.  Not only do they have the league’s top penalty kill (90.0 percent), they have more shorthanded goals scored (11, most in the league) than power play goals allowed (eight, fewest in the league).  Their plus-3 goal differential makes Arizona the only team in the league with a positive goal differential, shorthanded goals scored to power play goals allowed.  The next best teams are the Vegas Golden Knights and San Jose Sharks, each with a minus-8.  Three times this season, Arizona scored two shorthanded goals in a single game.  The rest of the league has a total of five such games, no team with more than one.

2.  Arizona really does spread the scoring around.  Through 26 games, 19 skaters have at least one goal, but none with more than eight (Keller).  Nine skaters have game-winning goals, Keller the only one with more than one (four).  However, Michael Grabner has the only overtime game-winner for the Coyotes.  He is out indefinitely with an eye injury.

3.  Arizona is the only team left in the league without a major penalty charged.  Only two of their 104 penalties taken were not minors (including bench minors); two misconducts on their ledger.

4.  The Coyotes do a good job of protecting the puck, or they get generous scoring.  Only three teams have been charged with fewer giveaways than Arizona (199) – Colorado (189), Minnesota (157), and St. Louis (156).  Not that they are especially adept at takeaways; they have the fifth-fewest in the league (149).

5.  Here is a strange number that might reflect the degree to which Arizona takes their foot off the pedal in games: 131.  The Coyotes are plus-131 in shot attempt differential when behind at 5-on-5 (fifth-best in the league), minus-131 in shot differential when ahead at fives (third-worst in the league).

1.  The Caps have allowed nine goals in the third period of the last three games, and the trend is worse – two goals allowed to the New Jersey Devils, three allowed to the Anaheim Ducks, and four in their last contest against the Vegas Golden Knights.

2.  Winning faceoffs at even strength is not the Caps’ thing.  They rank next to last in even strength faceoffs won (612).  Only the New York Islanders have fewer wins (576).

3.  No team in the Eastern Conference has been shorthanded more often than the Capitals.  They are tied with the Tampa Bay Lightning with 101 shorthanded situations faced through Tuesday’s games.  In the entire league, only Vancouver has allowed more power play goals (28) than the Caps (24, tied with Ottawa).

4.  Having lost their last two games while taking a lead into the third period, the Caps are now tied with Winnipeg for most losses in regulation when leading after two periods this season (three).  On the other hand, the Caps have 12 wins when leading after two periods, fifth-most in the league.  The 15 leads they have taken into the third periods of games is third-most in the league, behind only Nashville (16) and Tampa Bay (17).

5.  Seven defensemen have dressed for ten or more games for the Caps this season.  All of them have points, and five of them have goals (Madison Bowey and Christian Djoos being the exceptions).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Arizona: Nick Schmaltz

Nick Schmaltz was a 20^th-overall draft pick of the Chicago Blackhawks in 2014.  After spending two years with the University of North Dakota after being drafted, he moved up to his first professional assignment, splitting time between the Rockford Ice Hogs in the AHL and the Blackhawks, for whom he played 61 games in his 2016-2017 rookie season.  Schmaltz had decent numbers as a rookie (6-22-28, plus-10) and followed that up with an even better sophomore season (21-31-52, plus-1, in 78 games).  However, the Blackhawks stumbled out of the gate this season, and Schmaltz was not contributing enough to arrest that slide.  Combine that with the Blackhawks’ propensity for trading former first round picks, and Schmaltz was a candidate for relocation.

Schmaltz was traded to the Coyotes for forwards Dylan Strome and Brendan Perlini on November 25^th.  He seems to like his new home.  After being held without a point in his debut with the Coyotes on November 27^th against Minnesota, he has points in each of his last three games (2-3-5), two of those being multi-point games.  His five points represent having a piece of almost half the goals scored by Arizona in that span (11).  In four games with the Coyotes, Schmaltz is almost half way to the total points he had in 23 games with the Blackhawks this season (11) before his trade to Arizona.  In four career games against Washington, he is 1-1-2, minus-1.

Washington: Madison Bowey

The evolution of an NHL defenseman might be slower than that for any other position.  While forwards can have a considerable impact on outcomes early in their careers, defensemen simply have too many things to develop – positioning, skating, stick management, when to step up, when to sit back, spacing, -- and that is before getting to the offensive end of the ice.  Madison Bowey has not yet made a lot of progress in the offensive end of the ice, but he is learning the ways, skills, and techniques he needs in the defensive end of the ice.  While he does get third pair minutes, averaging a bit more than 13 minutes per game, only three times in 19 games has he finished as a “minus” player, and only once in a loss.  Bowey is still looking for that first NHL after 70 games this year and last, but he has points in five of his last 11 games after going without one in his first eight games this season.  He is also getting more shots to the net, recording 12 shots on goal in those 11 games after posting just five shots on goal in his first eight games this season.  In two career games against Arizona, Bowey has one assist.

In the end…

The trick to managing a schedule is to avoid the long losing streaks.  The Caps have lost consecutive games in regulation for the third time this season.  There has not yet been a three-game losing streak of any kind.  The Coyotes, however, are an ornery bunch when playing the Caps.  Washington has never won three straight games against this franchise dating all the way back to January 1984, when they were the original Winnipeg Jets.  The Caps have lost six of their last seven meetings in Arizona (1-4-2), including the last three games played there (0-2-1).  Washington has not won a game in regulation in Arizona since a 6-1 win in January 2016.  Caps fans remember that game for something else that was “simply sensational”…

The Caps’ frustration, both over the last two games in which they coughed up leads late and in their visits to Arizona, makes this contest quite a chore for a club still dealing with absences of Brooks Orpik and T.J. Oshie, and perhaps now without Tom Wilson, injured in Tuesday’s game against the Vegas Golden Knights.  Dig deep and pull up a win.

Capitals 3 – Coyotes 2