A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 17: Capitals 5 - Panthers 4 (OT)

The Washington Capitals returned to the ice after a four day hiatus, visiting the Florida Panthers on Thursday night.  The Caps came into the game with a four-game winning streak and points in nine straight contests (8-0-1), while the Panthers entered the contest with consecutive wins and points in 10 of their last 11 games (6-1-4).  It was a back and forth affair, but the Caps kept clawing back, eventually tying the game in the third period and winning it in overtime behind “Top Line Tom” Wilson, 5-4.

First Period

It took just 25 seconds for the Caps to break on top.  Moving the puck around the perimeter of the offensive zone, Alex Ovechkin fed Michal Kempny at the left point.  He sent the puck to the Florida net, where John Carlson was lurking above the crease.  His redirection of the pass handcuffed goalie Sergei Bobrovsky and trickled through him over the goal line to give the Caps a 1-0 lead.

Florida needed less than two minutes to tie the game.  Jonas Siegenthaler wiped out inside his own blue line, and Frank Vatrano took full advantage.  He circled around the fallen Siegenthaler and slipped a seeing eye puck through the pads of goalie Braden Holtby at the 1:55 mark to tie the game at one apiece.

Washington went on a power play when Aleksander Barkov was sent off for interference 2:22 into the period.  It was Florida who had the best early chance on the Caps power play, breaking out on a 3-on-1, only Alex Ovechkin back for the Caps.  Vatrano took the shot and rang the post on Holtby’s blocker side and out.  At the other end, Lars Eller had a chance but snapped the puck off the crossbar behind Bobrovsky and out.  The power play expired with no further danger.

Brett Connolly took a chunk out of his old team in the 15^th minute when he redirected a drive from the right point by Anton Stralman out of the air and under Holtby to make it 2-1, Panthers, 14:26 into the period.  That would end the scoring for the period.

-- John Carlson’s goal gave him points in 13 of 17 games so far this season.  No defenseman has posted points in more games.

-- The Caps had only eight shot attempts more than 17 minutes into the period but finished with 11 (seven on goal).  Florida had 23 shots attempts, 11 on goal.

-- Only seven of 18 skaters had shot attempts in the first period, four of them with only one.  Carlson led in this category with three (three shots on goal).

Second Period

It was Florida scoring in the first minute of a period to start the second frame.  Evgeni Dadonov circled off the left wing wall to pick up a loose puck and fed Barkov for a one timer in the slot that beat Holtby on the glove side 27 seconds into the period to make it 3-1, Panthers.

Washington was awarded a power play in the sixth minute when Brian Boyle slashed Radko Gudas.  The Caps made them pay with a smart passing play by Evgeny Kuznetsov.  Playing catch with John Carlson, Kuznetsov took a return feed and stepped up in the right wing circle.  Showing shot, he instead fed the puck through the slot to Ovechkin, who one timed the puck into a wide open net to make it 3-2, 6:13 into the period.

The Caps went a man short when Tom Wilson was sent off for high-sticking Barkov 7:03 into the period.  The Caps had the penalty almost killed off, but with four seconds left in the Panther power play, Garnet Hathaway was sent to the box for slashing.  The Caps were able to kill off the second half of what was effectively a double minor penalty without damage.

The hard work paid off.  Evgeny Kuznetsov won faceoff to Bobrovsky’s right, and John Carlson collected the puck at the blue line.  He fed it to Ovechkin at the left wing half wall, where Ovechkin sent a harmless looking shot that was redirected by MacKenzie Weegar through Bobrovsky.  Unfortunately for the Panthers, Weegar is a Panther defenseman.  The Caps tied the game at three apiece 12:14 into the period.

Washington had another chance on the power play late in the period when Keith Yandle was whistled for slashing at the 14:13 mark.  Florida killed the penalty to maintain the tie.  The Caps returned the favor with Orlov going off on a hooking call 16:42 into the period.  But like the previous Washington penalty, the Caps almost killed it off before taking another, Lars Eller going off for tripping, 18:37 into the period.  The second time was the charm for the Panthers.  With Tom Wilson down after blocking a shot and trying to get back in position in the high slot, Dadonov one-timed a feed from Jonathan Huberdeau from the low slot to give the Panthers a 4-3 lead with 1:01 left in the period.  That would be how the teams went to the intermission.

-- Florida had a 13-10 edge on shots on goal in the period and a 21-17 advantage in shot attempts.

-- Ovechkin’s two goals in the period gave him 13 in 17 games, slightly ahead of last year’s pace when he scored his 13^th goal in his 19^th game.

-- Garnet Hathaway led the team with four takeaways through 40 minutes.

Third Period

Alex Ovechkin almost made it three-for-three in first minute goals for the evening when he walked around Weegar, but Bobrovsky made the save.  Tom Wilson did make it three-for-three when Kuznetsov circled out of the corner and centered the puck for Wilson closing on the top of the crease.  He redirected the puck over Bobrovsky’s shoulder, and it was 4-4, 44 seconds into the period.

Bobrovsky kept the Panthers in it with some marvelous saves over the next five minutes, but the Panthers went a man shot six minutes into the period when Dryden Hunt was sent off on a tripping call.  The Caps had some good looks by Ovechkin and Jakub Vrana, but could not solve Bobrovsky.

Washington went a man down when Michal Kempny was charged with a tripping call 8:59 into the period.  The Caps killed it off to preserve the tie.  That was how the teams went to overtime.

Overtime

It was a case of big save at one end makes for big ending at the other end.  Braden Holtby stopped Aaron Ekblad from the top of the crease right off the faceoff to open the extra frame, and that enabled the Caps to break out with the Panthers trapped in their own end.  John Carlson skated the puck down the left side and fed Tom Wilson closing on the net to finish a play with a tap in past Bobrovsky 17 seconds into the overtime to send the Caps off as winners, 5-4.

Other stuff…

-- Michal Kempny had an assist on the Carlson goal, giving him points in seven of the nine games in which he played after returning from rehabbing his surgically repaired hamstring.  He reached the ten-point mark in his ninth game after taking 27 games to get there last season.  The Caps are now 8-0-1 since Kempny returned from injury.

-- Alex Ovechkin’s two goals in the second period gave him 136 career multi-goal games, breaking a tie with Mike Gartner for seventh-most all-time.  He finished with three points, giving him 12 points in his last seven games.

-- John Carlson’s assist on Ovechkin’s first goal gave him nine multi-point games this season, most among league defensemen.  His assist on Tom Wilson’s overtime game-winner gave him his fourth three-point game of the season, also tops among defensemen.

-- Kuznetsov’s assist on the Wilson goal in the third period gave him his second consecutive multi-point game (two two-assist games), third in five games, and fourth this season.  He finished with three assists, breaking a tie with Bengt Gustafsson, Adam Oates, and Mike Ridley for fifth place in three-assist games since 1979-1980 and tied Dale Hunter for fourth place (14).

-- The two goals in the second period for Ovechkin gave him three points on the night, his 108^th career three-point game, third among active players, trailing only Sidney Crosby (140) and Joe Thornton (111).

-- Carlson’s three points broke a tie with Kevin Hatcher for third most points, all-time, among defensemen in franchise history and tied Scott Stevens for second place (429).  He trails only Calle Johansson on the all-time list (474).

-- Tom Wilson’s overtime goal was his second of the game, giving him six career multi-goal games.

-- Florida had a 36-31 edge in shots and a 62-52 edge in shot attempts.

-- Ovechkin finished with eight shots on goal and 15 shot attempts.  Thirteen of those attempts came in the last two periods and overtime.

-- Give Braden Holtby credit.  In what was a back and forth game for 40 minutes, he slammed the door in the third period and overtime, stopping all 12 shots he faced.

In the end…

This is a team and place that often gives the Caps fits.  Some teams, some venues are like that.  But the Caps gritted this out, got big contributions from big players, and Tom Wilson showed yet again how he is progressing as a hockey player, not just a physical presence.  It was as solid a win as the Caps have had this season, even if you are not a fan of fire wagon hockey.  If you are inclined to complain, just remember, the Caps are now 9-0-1 in their last ten games.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 17: Capitals at Panthers, November 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It is a late start to the work week for the Washington Capitals as they head to Florida to meet the Panthers on Thursday night.  Both teams are coming off long breaks, the Caps not having played since beating the Calgary Flames at home last Sunday, and the Panthers have been on a break since shutting out the Detroit Red Wings last Saturday.

Then and Now…

The Caps and Panthers will meet for the 127^th time on Thursday.  Washington has a 64-42-11 (nine ties) record.  The Capitals are 30-25-4 (four ties) in 63 of those games played in Florida.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 36-24-10 against the Panthers, 17-14-4 in visits to South Florida.  Washington has lost in their last four visits to Florida (0-2-2), three of the decisions by one goal, and have been outscored, 18-14.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Caps vs. Panthers:

• Goals: Ovechkin (36)
• Assists: Ovechkin (42)
• Points: Ovechkin (78)
• Plus-minus: Ovechkin (plus-13)
• Penalty minutes: Backstrom (42)
• Power play goals: Ovechkin (9)
• Power play points: Ovechkin (28)
• Shorthanded goals: none
• Game-winning goals: Ovechkin (8)
• Overtime goals: Kuznetsov (1)
• Shots on goal: Ovechkin (316)
• Goaltender wins: Holtby (1)
• Goals against average: Holtby (2.78)
• Save percentage: Holtby (.906)
• Shutouts: Holtby (1)

Panthers vs. Caps:

• Goals: Trocheck (7)
• Assists: Huberdeau (11)
• Points: Huberdeau (17)
• Plus-minus: Barkov (plus-5)
• Penalty minutes: Trocheck (12)
• Power play goals: Dadonov, Trocheck, Huberdeau (2)
• Power play points: Huberdeau (7)
• Shorthanded goals: Barkov, Trocheck (1)
• Game-winning goals: Trocheck (2)
• Overtime goals: Hoffman (1)
• Shots on goal: Trocheck, Huberdeau (43)
• Goaltender wins: none
• Goals against average: none
• Save percentage: none
• Shutouts: none

Noteworthy Opponents…

When Jonathan Huberdeau took the ice 1:58 into the contest with the New York Islanders on Long Island on October 12^th, he took over ninth place in games played for the Florida Panthers, suiting up for the 472^nd time and passing Jay Bouwmeester on the franchise list.  He will shortly become only the eighth player in team history to dress for 500 or more games, and only three players in team history have played more seasons for the Panthers: Paul Laus (nine), Radek Dvorak (nine), and Stephen Weiss (11).  Not that Huberdeau is a graybeard.  He turned just 26 years old last June.  He was the third overall pick in the 2011 Entry Draft, one of the deepest drafts in recent memory, one with 14 players having topped 100 career goals (including Huberdeau, ninth with 134 goals) and 17 players with at least 200 points (humberdeau is sixth with 377). His fellow draft classmates inclue Nikita Kucherov, Gabriel Landeskog, John Gaudreau, Mark Scheifele, Sean Couturier, and William Karlsson.

Huberdeau is off to a fine start this season after posting career highs in goals (30) and points (92) last season.  Through 14 games he is 9-9-18 and is shooting an unusually good 24.3 percent (his career average is 12.0 percent).  The odd thing about his team-leading nine goals is that none of them have come on power plays.  Two of his goals are game-winners, though (one in overtime, the team’s only overtime goal), which is a third of the game-winning goal output for the club so far.  He has been quite consistent in the early schedule.  In 14 games played he was held without a point only three times, all on the road and none of them consecutively.  In five home games he is 5-5-10, even.  Huberdeau is 6-11-17, even, in 20 career games against the Capitals.

Vincent Trocheck is also a member of that deep 2011 draft class, a third-round (64^th overall) pick for the Panthers.  He is in his seventh season with Florida and is looking to improve upon a 2018-2019 season in which he lost 27 games to an ankle injury and finished just 10-24-34 in 55 games after posting a career-high 31 goals in 2017-2018.  Trocheck has outperformed his draft position to date, one of only three players taken after the 60^th pick to reach the 100 career goal mark (104^th overall pick John Gaudreau has 136, and 139^th overall pick Andrew Shaw has 113).  Trocheck is already one of ten players in Panther history with at least 100 goals (102) and 250 points (252).

This season has been another of frustration for Trocheck, who has not played since October 19^th against Nashville.  He has missed the last six games with a lower-body injury, but even before that he had not recorded a goal in seven games after potting one in the Panthers’ 5-2 loss to Tampa Bay in their season opener.  In his absence, Florida has gone 4-1-1 and scored 25 goals in the process.  Trocheck’s offense has not yet been missed.  But he has been effective against the Caps, going 7-8-15, plus-1, in 13 career meetings.

Aaron Ekblad was the top overall pick.  Keith Yandle is the guy you can’t get out of the lineup.  Anton Stralman was the free agent signed away from the other team in Florida.  So who leads the defense in goals and is tied for the points lead?  MacKenzie Weegar (3-6-9).  His is quite a story.  Only five players were taken later in the 2013 Entry Draft than 206^th overall pick Weegar.  But only one player among the 90 players taken in the fifth round or later have appeared in more than the 141 games played to date by Weegar (Will Butcher, the 123^rd overall pick by Colorado, has appeared in 169 games for the New Jersey Devils to date).

Weegar performed the expected apprenticeship, moving from Canadian junior hockey to the ECHL and parts of three seasons in the AHL, the last of which (2016-2017) included a brief three-game stint with the Panthers.  He got a heaver workload in 2017-2018, going 2-6-8, plus-5, in 60 games; and then he was 4-11-15, minus-3 last season.  Although it is early in his career, Weegaar’s improvement has been constant.  The goals (two to four to being on pace for 18), assists (six, 11, on pace for 35), shots (58, 79, on pace for 170), and ice time (14:34, 16:58, 20:47) paint a picture of a player carving out more responsibility by virtue of improving production.  He is just doing it in comparative anonymity, even among his own defensive crew.  Weegar is 0-0-0, minus-1, in five career games against the Capitals.

1.  Former Capital Update… Through 14 games, it appears Brett Connolly’s production with the Caps over three seasons (52 goals over 217 games) was no fluke.  He is 5-5-10 so far.  Last season, with the Caps, he did not record his fifth goal until his 29^th game, and it took him 17 games to get to 10 points.  The year before, it took him 20 games to get to five goals and 26 games to get to ten points.  In 2016-2017, his first with Washington, he took 26 games to get to five goals and 33 games to get to ten points.

2.  The Panthers make goalies work for their supper.  They are second in the league in shots on goal per game (34.8).  But they also have been adept at limiting opponents, both in shots and opportunities.  Their average shots on goal allowed (29.4) is sixth-fewest in the league, and their 501 shot attempts allowed at 5-on-5 are fifth-fewest (501 in 14 games), and only two of the teams having allowed fewer did it in fewer games (Tampa Bay: 480 in 13 games; New Jersey: 445 in 13 games).

3.  Only the Winnipeg Jets have been charged with fewer penalties overall (36 in 16 games) than the Panthers (43 in 14 games).

4.  Florida has a very good power play on home ice (31.3 percent/sixth), but they get few opportunities.  Only three teams have had fewer man advantages on home ice than the Panthers (16 in five games).  On the other side, no team has been shorthanded fewer times on home ice than the Panthers (11).

5.  The Panthers have more power play goals over their last two home games (four) than they do at even strength (three) after recording 10 even strength and only one power play goal over their first three home games of the season.

1.  The Caps have recorded at least one power play goal in seven of nine road games this season.  When one factors in shorthanded goals scored, the Caps have failed to record a special teams goal in a road game only once – October 22^nd in a 5-3 win in Calgary over the Flames.

2.  Washington is the only team in the league with three defensemen at plus-10 or better: John Carlson (plus-11), Radko Gudas (plus-10), and Michal Kempny (plus-10).

3.  Going into Wednesday night’s schedule, the Caps faced 37 shorthanded situations on the road this season, tied for second (Calgary: 42) and most in the Eastern Conference.  All 39 of the penalties they have taken on the road have been minor penalties.

4.  Only the New York Islanders have more blocked shots this season (259) than the Caps (252).

5.  When the Caps held Toronto to 31 shot attempts at 5-on-5 in their last road game, a 4-3 overtime win on October 29^th, it was the fewest they allowed in a game since they allowed the Islanders 31 attempts on October 4^th, and their plus-3 shot attempt differential against the Maple Leafs broke a six-game streak on the road of minus differentials.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Florida: Sergei Bobrovsky

You will notice above that there are no active Florida goaltenders having posted any wins, recorded any goals against average, logged a save percentage, or pitched a shutout.  That is because Sam Montembeault has only 15 games played in the league, none against the Caps, and the Panthers’ new number one goalie is Sergei Bobrovsky, signed to a seven-year/$70 million contract last July after spending his last seven years with the Columbus Blue Jackets.  Bobrovsky holds the top ranking in every meaningful statistical category in Blue Jackets history – games (374), wins (213, the only one of 24 goalies to record more than 100 wins), goals against average (2.41; minimum: 10 games), save percentage (.921), and shutouts (33).

Bobrovsky got off to a rocky start with his new team, going 3-2-3, 3.87, .869 in eight games.  Over his last four appearances, though, he is 3-0-0 (one no-decision), 2.17, .917, with one shutout, that coming in his last appearance (through Tuesday), a 22-save effort in a 4-0 win over the Detroit Red Wings.  Where he has struggled is at even strength.  Of 54 goalies to have appeared in five or more games through Tuesday, Bobrovsky ranked 50^th in save percentage at evens (.875), and no goalie had allowed more goals at even strength (32 in 12 games).  Bobrovsky is no stranger to the Caps.  Although this will be his first meeting against Washington as a Panther, assuming he gets the starting nod, he is 9-11-4, 2.89, .904, with one shutout in 25 career games against the Capitals.

Washington: Michal Kempny

Some players make teams successful by sheer force of their superior numbers.  Others do it in more mysterious ways.  Consider Michal Kempny.  Since arriving in Washington in February 2018, the Caps have a regular season record of 64-29-8 in games in which he played.  The Caps are 7-0-1 in eight games since Kempny’s return from surgery to repair an injured hamstring late last season after starting the year 4-2-2.  And, of course, the Caps went 16-8 with Kempny in the lineup in the Stanley Cup run of 2019 while missing the first round exit from the playoffs last spring.  His presence, while unimpressive on a top-end numbers basis since his arrival, seems to have the persistent effect of calming and improving the reliability of defensive pairs. 

However, those offensive numbers have been rather impressive in his delayed start this season.  Despite that late start, he is second among Caps defensemn in goals (three), assists (six), points (nine), and is tied for second in plus-minus (plus-10, with Radko Gudas).  Given the point in the season at which we find ourselves and the nature of shooting by defensemen, a feature of Kempny’s performance to date will not last, but it is interesting nevertheless.  He has three goals on ten shots to date, the only defenseman in Caps history to hold a shooting percentage of 30 or more percent and only the third with a season shooting percentage over 20 percent (Lee Norwood was 7-for-33/21.2 percent in 1981-1982, and Jean Lemieux was 4-for-19/21.1 percent in 1976-1977).  Kempny is 0-1-1, minus-2, in three career games against Florida.

In the end…

The Panthers are one of those irritating teams that seem to give the Caps problems.  Four straight losses in Florida and six losses in seven games on Panther ice (1-4-2) will do that.  The Panthers have been nothing if not consistent so far on home ice, scoring four goals in four of their five games to date and one with three goals.  On the other hand, the Caps have been almost as consistent on the road and more prolific to boot, recording four or more goals in six of their last seven road contests and five or more four times.  Account for the recent good play by Braden Holtby and Sergei Bobrovsky in goal, and perhaps nine total goals aren’t in the cards, but seven is in play.

Capitals 4 – Panthers 3

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 16: Capitals 4 - Flames 2

The Washington Capitals took to the ice on Sunday night to wrap up their season series with the Calgary Flames.  The Capitals fell behind early, but they came back on a career night by Jakub Vrana and won the season series against the Flames with a 4-2 win.

First Period

Calgary, at the end of a long road trip, opened the scoring in the sixth minute of the period when Andrew Mangiapane took a feed from Matthew Tkachuk and skated through the low slot, wrapping the puck around the right pad of goalie Ilya Samsonov to give the Flames a 1-0 lead, 5:40 into the period.

Washington tied it when Evgeny Kuznetsov picked up a loose puck along the wall in front of the players’ benches and led a 2-on-1 with Jakub Vrana.  Kuznetsov put the puck into space to allow Vrana to collect it, and Vrana did the rest, beating goalie Cam Talbot cleanly over his blocker to make it 1-1 at the 11:01 mark.

Vrana got his second of the game four minutes later.  The Caps executed some deft passing in deep, Dmitry Orlov feeding Kuznetsov, who dropped the puck to Vrana at the edge of the left wing circle for a snap shot that beat Talbot 15:08 into the period to make it 2-1, Caps.

Calgary scored with 1.6 seconds left on a pinballing puck that Elias Lindholm deflected out of mid-air from between the hashmarks past goalie Ilya Samsonov to send the teams to their respective locker rooms tied at 2-2.

-- Washington out-shot the Flames, 10-8, but Calgary had the edge in shot attempts, 24-18.

-- The Caps were weak in the faceoff circle, winning only six of 18 draws.

-- Jakub Vrana led the team in shots (three) and attempts (four).

-- The Caps had a 15-5 edge in credited hits, Tom Wilson leading the team with four.

-- Jonas Siegenthaler had three blocked shots to lead all players for both teams.

Second Period

The teams were relatively quiet for the first nine minutes until Alex Ovechkin had a chance on a breakaway, but his attempt to sneak the puck under Talbot’s pads was foiled by the Calgary netminder.

It took almost half the game to go by, but the teams took their first penalties of the evening when Siegenthaler and Mangiapane were sent off for coincidental roughing calls at the 9:43 mark.

Vrana put the Caps in front with his third goal of the game, taking advantage of a Calgary turnover from inside the Flames’ blue line to head off on a breakaway.  In behind the Calgary defense after collecting the puck in the neutral zone, Vrana’s first shot was stopped by Talbot, but the rebound lay in front in the blue paint, and Vrana followed up smartly before Talbot could reset, and the Caps were up, 3-2, 15:05 into the period.  That goal would open and close the scoring for the period

-- The Caps had a narrow 13-11 edge in shots on goal for the period, but Calgary had a 20-19 advantage in shot attempts.

-- Jakub Vrana led the team through two periods in shots on goal (five) and shot attempts (seven).

-- Tom Wilson was credited with five hits through 40 minutes; three other Caps had four.  Washington had a 25-12 edge in this category.

Third Period

The Caps got a power play chance in the first minute of the period when Mikael Backlund took a tripping call.  Washington converted the chance when Tom Wilson stepped out from the corner to Talbot’s right and fed the puck across the slot to Lars Eller all alone in the right wing circle.  Eller had time and space to make a play, and he chose snapping a shot over Talbot’s glove to make it 4-2, 2:20 into the period.

Calgary had a chance shortly thereafter when a shot rang the post to Samsonov’s right.  Samsonov spun all the way around to deny Mark Jankowski on a follow up shot from in close to keep the margin at two goals.

The Flames got their first power play of the evening 7:39 into the period when Evgeny Kuznetsov was called for tripping.  The Caps killed off the penalty with two shots on goal allowed.

Washington went to the man advantage when Alan Quine was sent off for interference at the 15:32 mark.  The Caps had excellent zone time, controlling the puck in the Calgary zone for the first 80 seconds of the power play, but they could not convert either of the two shots they managed on Talbot.

Calgary emptied their net as the clock ticked past two minutes remaining, and then they got an additional man advantage when Dmitry Orlov was sent to the box for delay of game, clearing the puck over the glass in the defensive zone.  The Flames could not convert on the 6-on-4 advantage, though, and the Caps skated off with a 4-2 win.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps scored in the second period again.  That makes them 16-for-16 in second periods this season in having at least one goal scored.

-- Jakub Vrana’s three goals was his first career hat trick.  He is the 45^th player in Caps history to record at least one hat trick.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov had three assists, the 44^th multi-assist game of his career, tying Sergei Gonchar for 17th all time for the Capitals.

-- The win made it four in a row for the Caps, their second four-win streak this season.  It was their ninth consecutive game earning points (8-0-1).

-- The win was the Caps’ fourth in a row on home ice after opening the season with three losses (0-1-2).

-- Washington finished the game with a 32-27 edge in shots, but Calgary had a 58-52 advantage in shot attempts.

-- The Caps’ top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and T.J. Oshie was minus-2 across the board.

-- Tom Wilson had his tenth career two-assist game.  It was his 24^th career multi-point game.

-- John Carlson led the club with six shots on goal, but he went without a point for a second straight game, the first time this season he went consecutive games without a point.

-- Ilya Samsonov got the win, stopping 25 of 27 shots.  He is now five-for-five in winning starts this season.

In the end…

Good win.  Solid Win.  The Caps were sound in all three zones for the most part, keeping the Flames from establishing any momentum and rarely allowing them to apply pressure.  Calgary looked like a team at the end of a five-game road trip, but the Caps knocked off a club that won their last two games of that trip coming into this one.  Still, the Caps did what they had to in taking advantage of a team playing the back half of back-to-back games.  That is what successful teams do, and the Caps certainly can lay claim to being one at the moment.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 5

The Washington Capitals wrapped up one month and started another in Week 5.  It was a light week of workload, two games on the schedule, but a successful one with a pair of wins.  And when it was over, the Caps were atop the league standings. 

Record: 2-0-0

The Caps wrapped up a very successful road trip with a 4-3 overtime win in Toronto to open the week.  That was a see-saw affair in which the Maple Leafs opened the scoring, followed by the Caps scoring a pair of goals by John Carlson to take the lead, falling behind on a pair of goals by Auston Matthews, and tying the game in the third period on an Alex Ovechkin goal before Ovechkin won the contest four minutes into the extra period.  The win gave the Caps a 4-0-1 record on what will be their longest road trip of the season.

There was no such suspense in the game to end the week.  The Caps scored four goals in a span of 4:27 in the first period to end the competitive portion of the game against Buffalo, skating off with a 6-1 win to give them ten wins on the season, the first team in the NHL to reach double digits in victories.  In an odd scheduling quirk, November 1^st is the earliest date on the calendar by which the Caps completed 15 games on the schedule.  The previous earliest date was November 2^nd, 1990, when the Caps completed 15 games with an 8-7-0 record.  The nine wins tied a team record for October, originally set in 1991-1992 when the Caps got off to a 9-3-0 October start.

Offense: 5.00/game (season: 3.93/1st)

The Caps are on a roll in the offensive end of the ice.  They scored five goals in both games in Week 5, bringing their total of five-goal games to five in their most recent seven contests and six for the season, tied with Nashville and Vancouver (coincidentally teams that have both scored and allowed five goals in a game against the Caps this season).

Seven different Caps recorded goals in Week 5, John Carlson, Jakub Vrana, and Alex Ovechkin each with a pair.  When Carlson scored his pair of goals in the overtime win in Toronto to start the week, he ended the month with one of the best Octobers by a defenseman in league history.  His seven goals was one short of the league record for defensemen in October, held jointly by Al McInnis (1991), Phil Housley (1988), and Al Sims (1981).  His 16 assists were two short of the record set by Paul Coffey in 1989.  And, he 23 points were two short of McInnis’ record of 25 in 1991.

Ovechkin’s two goals gave him 669 for his career, passing Luc Robitaille for 12^th place all-time.  Next in his sights will be Teemu Selanne in 11^th place with 684 goals.  Ovechkin finished October with 11 goals, tied for third in the league and the fourth time he recorded 10 or more goals in October.  It was the most he recorded for the month since he started the 2010-2011 season with 14 goals in October. 

Ovechkin also led the team in points for the week (five), but it was Michal Kempny that set a personal record with his first career three-point game, all assists, in the 6-1 win over Buffalo to close the week.  Jakub Vrana (2-1-3), Tom Wilson (1-2-3), and Nicklas Backstrom (0-3-3) also had three-point weeks.

Defense: 2.00/game (season: 3.13/18th)

It was an unremarkable week in the defensive end of the ice for the Caps.  They allowed Toronto 31 shots on goal in the 4-3 overtime win and 30 to Buffalo in the 6-1 win.  Those totals were squarely in line with the Caps’ average of 30.9 shots on goal allowed at the end of Week 5.  The spread between opponents in shot attempts allowed at 5-on-5 was bigger – 31 to Toronto and 41 to the Sabres, but these were wrapped around the average of 37.1 the Caps compiled through Week 5, and the 41 allowed to the Sabres might reflect score effects as much as anything.  But those 41 shot attempts allowed at 5-on-5 to the Sabres does point to an odd feature about this statistic on home ice.  The Caps have been either very stingy or very gracious in this category.  In six home games through Week 5, the Caps allowed 41 or more shot attempts at fives three times (twice in wins), and they allowed 30 or fewer three times (twice in losses, both in overtime).

Goaltending: 1.94 / .934 (season: 3.03 / .901)

A superb week from Braden Holtby brought the Caps’ overall goaltending over the .900 save percentage mark for the season.  Holtby started and won both games in Week 5, stopping 57 of 61 shots (.934).  It brought his personal streak to 5-0-1, 2.63, .923 since he gave up three goals on three shots in a 6-3 loss to Colorado on October 14^th.

Holtby’s week featured games that were mirror images of themselves in terms of shots faced.  Against Toronto he faced only seven first period shots, stopping six of them, while he was challenged with 14 third period shots, stopping 13 of them.  Against Buffalo, he was pounded for 16 first period shots as his teammates were building a 4-0 lead, and he stopped all of them.  He would face only five shots in the third period of a game long decided, again stopping all of them.  For the week he had excellent first (22-for-23/.957 save percentage) and third (18-for-19/.947) periods, while he was off this pace in the middle period (17-for-19/.895). 

As a result of his sparkling week, Holtby is now roughly on last year’s opening pace.  Through the Caps’ first 15 games he is 6-1-3, 3.30, .895 in 11 starts.  After 15 games last season, he was 5-4-2, 3.26, .903 with one shutout in 12 starts.

Power Play: 2-for-8/25.0 percent (season: 25.0 percent/4th)

The Caps are nothing if not consistent on the power play recently.  They were 2-for-8 last week, and they duplicated that performance in Week 5.  Where the consistency fell apart, though, was in the game-by-game opportunities.  There were the seven chances the Caps had in the opening game of the week against the Maple Leafs, converting twice, including the game-winning goal from Alex Ovechkin (his 251^st career power play goal, four short of Teemu Selanne for third place all-time).  The seven opportunities is the Caps’ high for the season to date and the most they had in a single game since they had eight (converting three) in a 6-3 win over the New York Islanders on March 16, 2018.

At the other end, the Caps had a single man advantage against Buffalo to end the week.  It was the fewest chances they had through six games of their home schedule (they had one in Chicago against the Blackhawks on October 20^th) and the fewest they had in a home game since they had a single chance in last season’s regular season penultimate home game, a 2-1 win over the Montreal Canadiens.

The Caps had a reasonably efficient power play for the week, recording 14 shots on goal in 14:29 of power play ice time.  Alex Ovechkin finished with half of the 14 shots, scoring once.  John Carlson and Jakub Vrana finished with two power play shots apiece, Carlson getting the other goal.

Penalty Killing: 9-for-10/90.0 percent (season: 85.7 percent/T-6th)

The Caps had a fine week, efficiency-wise, in penalty killing with nine kills in ten shorthanded situations.  On the other hand, there were those ten shorthanded situations faced.  But here too, the Caps had an odd week in the next level of detail.  They surrendered eight power play chances to Toronto to open the week, the most they gave up in a single game since New Year’s Eve 2016, when they went shorthanded nine times (killing all of them) in a 6-2 win over the Devils in New Jersey.

The Caps were taking it from all angles against Toronto.  In the eight Maple Leaf power plays, eight different players recorded a total of 11 shots on goal in 13:28 of ice time.  Auston Matthews led the Leafs with three and had the only goal with the man advantage.  It was the reverse against Buffalo, who could manage only a single shot on goal in two minutes of power play ice time.

Faceoffs: 72-for-151 / 47.7 percent (season: 49.7 percent/17th)

The Caps dropped under 50 percent for the season in faceoff winning percentage in Week 5.  They split the week, finishing 40.0 percent against Toronto (32-for-80) and 56.3 percent against Buffalo (40-for-71).  As it is, the Caps have not posted consecutive games over 50 percent in their last eight games, finishing over 50 percent only twice in that span.

At the top end level, the Caps were consistent by zone for the week, finishing 23-for-47 in the offensive end (48.9 percent), 27-for-60 in the defensive end (45.0), and 22-for-44 (50.0) in the neutral zone.  But as was the case last week, that tilt toward the defensive end (60 draws versus 47 in the offensive end) was noticeable, if not as pronounced.

At the individual level, Lars Eller was the only Cap taking at least ten faceoffs who finished the week over 50 percent (58.5).  Nicklas Backstrom (43.2) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (43.8) finished under 45 percent for the week.

Goals by Period:

Washington did not dominate the second periods of games as they have over much of the early season.  The broke even in the middle frame over the two games, but still maintained a plus-13 goal second period goal differential for the season, second best in the league (Buffalo is plus-12).  The four-goal explosion against the Sabres on Friday allowed the Caps to win the first period for the week (pulling the Caps into positive goal-differential territory for the season), and the three goals they scored in the third period and overtime, while allowing only one, made for the successful week.

Year-over-Year:

The Caps are off to a much better start than last season’s 7-5-3 record through 15 games.  There is little mystery why – goal scoring is up (plus-7 over last season), and goals allowed are down by four (a plus-11 year over year change in goal differential).  It is the defensive change that is most noteworthy here.  Shots allowed are down by 37 (7.4 percent), and shot attempts at 5-on-5 are down a whopping 181 from last year’s 15-game total (24.6 percent).  The total shot attempts at fives are down considerably (from 1,406 through 15 games last season to 1,129 this season), which might be a reflection of the nature of the changes the Caps made to balance their game, sacrificing some offense in departed players for better defense at the other end.

Both categories of special team scoring are down.  Power play goals are down four from last season at this point, but the seven-goal reduction in power play goals allowed more than offsets that reduction.

In the end…

It was a big week in Washington, with the Nationals winning their first World Series and the District’s first in 95 years, and the Caps won both games on their schedule.  The Caps wins were not as big, but you have to have weeks like this in the regular season to have celebrations of the sort the Nationals had at the end of it.  In that respect, the players the Caps count on produced, they played good team defense, for the most part, and they have a goaltender who seems to have found his game once more.  It would be hard to find a lot wrong with where the Caps find themselves at the moment.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Braden Holtby (2-0-0, 1.94, .934)
• Second Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-3-5, plus-2, 1 power play/overtime/game-winning goal, 12 shots on goal, 22:03 average ice time, passed Luc Robitaille for 12^th place all-time in career goals scored)
• Third Star: Michal Kempny (0-3-3, plus-4, six shots on goal, 19:42 in average ice time, recorded first career three-point game)

Captain rates the week…

Four puppers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 16: Flames at Capitals, November 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The two-game home stand comes to an end for the Washington Capitals on Sunday night when they host the Calgary Flames at Capital One Arena.  This meeting will end the season series between the teams, the Caps winning the first matchup less than two weeks ago, a 5-2 win in Calgary in which the Caps broke a tie late in the second period, scored a pair in the third to take a commanding lead, then gave up a window dressing goal in the last minute for the final margin. 

Then and Now…

This will be the 99^th meeting of the teams in the all-time series, the Caps with a 40-43-2 record (with 13 ties).  In 50 of those games on home ice, the Caps are 26-16-2, with six ties.  Since 2005-2006, Washington Is 12-5-2 overall against the Flames and 5-2-2 on home ice.  The Caps have won the last three games overall in the series, including the last meeting in Washington, a 4-3 win last February 1^st.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Caps vs. Flames:

• Goals: Ovechkin (11)
• Assists: Backstrom (15)
• Points: Ovechkin (25)
• Plus-minus: Backstrom (plus-6)
• Penalty minutes: Wilson (12)
• Power play goals: Ovechkin (8)
• Power play points: Ovechkin (15)
• Shorthanded goals: none
• Game-winning goals: Backstrom, Ovechkin (2)
• Overtime goals: none
• Shots on goal: Ovechkin (104)
• Goaltender wins: Holtby (6)
• Goals against average: Holtby (3.05)
• Save percentage: Holtby (.894)
• Shutouts: none

Flames vs. Caps:

• Goals: Monahan (7)
• Assists: Gaudreau (10)
• Points: Gaudreau, Monahan (11)
• Plus-minus: Monahan (plus-3)
• Penalty minutes: Giordano (16)
• Power play goals: Lindholm (2)
• Power play points: Giordano, Gaudreau (3)
• Shorthanded goals: none
• Game-winning goals: Monahan
• Overtime goals: Monahan (2)
• Shots on goal: Monahan (38)
• Goaltender wins: none
• Goals against average: Talbot (4.14)
• Save percentage: Talbot (.862)
• Shutouts: none

Noteworthy Opponents…

Like father, like son.  Matthew Tkachuk has played in 239 games through 15 games of his fourth NHL season and has 187 points.  His father, Keith Tkachuk, appeared in 232 games over his first four NHL seasons (1991-1992 through 1994-1995), posting 191 points.  The mix is different, Matthew with only 77 goals at this point compared to the 94 his father recorded in his first four seasons, but the similarities are there.  Among those similarities are orneriness.  Keith logged 636 minutes in penalties over his first four seasons, but that was a different era entirely.  Son Matthew has 248 penalty minutes in his fourth season, and he is one of only four players in the league to have posted at least 75 goals and at least 225 penalty minutes over the last four years. 

Tkachuk has displayed consistent and significant improvement in scoring in his early career, going 13-25-48 in 76 games as a rookie in 2016-2017, followed by seasons of 24-25-49 (68 games) and 34-43-77 (80 games) last season.  He is on a similar trajectory this season, going 6-7-13 in 15 games to date, going into Calgary’s contest in Columbus against the Blue Jackets on Saturday night.  His pattern to date has been pairs.  His six goals were scored in three two-goal games, in wins against Florida and Nashville, and a pair (including the late, game-tying goal) in an overtime loss to Los Angeles.  Tkachuk is 1-3-4, even, in six career games against the Capitals.

Mark Giordano is the best known among Flames’ defensemen, but T.J. Brodie deserves a mention.  Brodie, now in his tenth season in Calgary, will tie Jamie Macoun for fifth place on the all-time Calgary list of games played by a defenseman in franchise history (586) when he takes the ice tonight in Columbus and take fifth place all to himself when he skates against the Caps on Sunday.  Since assuming a role as a fixture on the blue line in 2013-2014, he has become a reliable, if not elite point getter with six consecutive seasons of 30-plus points coming into this season.  That consistency over the years has positioned Brodie high in the all-time scoring rankings in franchise history among defensemen – eighth in goals (44), fifth in assists (210), fifth in points (254), and seventh in game-winning goals (11).  Calgary is going to have a decision to make at year-end regarding Brodie.  His current five-year/$23.252 million contract will expire and the 30-year old (he turns 30 next June) will be an unrestricted free agent.  What complicates the matter for the Flames is that they will be in a similar situation with 29-year old defenseman Travis Hamonic (he turns 30 next August), whose seven-year/$27 million deal will expire after this season.  The state of negotiations with the defensemen is somewhat muddy.  Brodie is 0-7-7,minus-1, in 13 career games against Washington.

Cam Talbot, who took the loss in the Flames’ first meeting against the Caps a couple of weeks ago in his last appearance going into Saturday’s games, is the only active goaltender in the Calgary system to have faced the Capitals.  So, will David Rittich get his first shot at Washington?  Between the fact that Calgary is playing back-to-back games this weekend, and Rittich has been unsteady in recent appearances (2-2-1, 3.72, .888 in his last five appearances), he might get that chance.  Rittich, an undrafted goaltender, signed a one-year contract with Calgary in June 2016 after two seasons with BK Mladá Boleslav in the Czech Extraliga.  He appeared in only one game with the Flames the following season, spending most of his time with the Stockton Heat in the AHL, but he was signed to a one-year extension  in 2017-2018 and another in 2018-2019. Last July, Rittich inked a two-year/$5.5 million contract that extends through the 2020-2021 season.

Last season was Rittich’s first as the number one goaltender for the Flames, albeit not clearly the incumbent in that role.  He started 42 of the team’s 82 games and posted a respectable 2.61 goals against average and .911 save percentage with one shutout.  The odd thing about Rittich, and Flames goalies in general, is the lack of history among them since the franchise’s founding in Atlanta 47 seasons ago.  Rittich’s 79 appearances ranks 15^th all-time among Flames’ goaltenders, and with 35 more appearances this season (he has 12 at the moment), he would jump into the top-ten, tying Don Edwards (114 appearances).  And it is not as if his other numbers fade in that context.  Among 18 goalies with at least 50 games played for the franchise, Rittich ranks eighth in goals against average (2.76) and fifth in save percentage (.908).  Odd Rittich fact… Going into Saturday’s games, Rittich is tied for the league lead in both starts (12) and total goals allowed (36).  As noted, if he gets the nod it will be his first appearance against the Caps.

1.  Calgary scored three goals on six power play chances in their first two road games this season, but they are 1-for-22 since (4.5 percent) going into their game in Columbus on Saturday night.

2.  The Flames are one of three teams to take ten or more penalties in a road game this season.  They took 11 (10 minors and one misconduct) in a 4-1 loss to Los Angeles on October 19^th.

3.  Only the Caps have blocked more shots on the road this season (145 in nine road games) than the Flames, who have 141 blocked shots in nine road games.  In a related stat, the Flames have been ill-behaved guests in one respect this season.  The 73 takeaways with which they have been credited on the road lead the league, ten more than the Colorado Avalanche.

4.  Calgary was 50 percent or better in shot attempts-for percentage at 5-on-5 in five of their first six road games, but they are under 50 percent in each of their last three road contests, going 43.15 percent overall.

5.  Going into Saturday night’s game against Columbus, the Flames have but one win on the road in regulation so far (they have two in extra time).  They got a third period goal from Mikael Backlund to scratch out a 2-1 win in Anaheim against the Ducks on October 20^th.

1.  Going into Saturday’s action, the Caps are the only team in the league that is top-five in both power play (25.0 percent/fifth) and penalty killing (85.7 percent/fifth).

2.  The Caps and Flames were tied for most times shorthanded overall going into Saturday’s schedule (56 times apiece).  The rank 1-2 in minor penalties taken (Calgary: 62; Washington: 60).

3.  If practice makes perfect, the Caps are getting a lot of it taking faceoffs.  The 953 draws taken rank first in the league, 62 more than Calgary (yes, these stats are largely a product of these two teams tied for most games played (15) to date).

4.  One stat not dependent on games played is shooting percentage, and the Caps lead the league in that category (12.8 percent).

5.  The Caps continue their high level of production in the second period.  When they scored in the middle frame against Buffalo on Friday, it kept the streak alive at 15 straight games with second period goals.  The 24 second period goals they have (first in the league) is only one goal fewer than the total the Chicago Blackhawks have for the season (25).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Calgary: Travis Hamonic

There are 13 defensemen in the league averaging more than 21 minutes of ice time per game and recording a minus-7 or worse overall.  Whether they are defensemen who get the tough minutes against tough opponents, have played in bad luck, are in slumps, or are just bad, it is quite a collection.  There are some big names on it, too.  Drew Doughty (24:07 per game/minus-7), Brent Burns (26:19 per game, minus-10), Erik Karlsson (25:20 per game/minus-12), and Ryan Suter (24:08 per game/minus-10).  Dmitry Orlov is on it (21:48 per game/minus-7) for the Caps, and Travis Hamonic is on it for the Flames (21:31 per game/minus-7).  Hamonic happens to be the only defenseman on that list yet to record a goal, and his two points are tied for fewest in the group (Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Mike Green).

Hamonic spent seven seasons in New York with the Islanders, posting 26 goals and 146 points in 444 games.  The numbers do not jump off the page, but Calgary thought enough of his performance to acquire him (with a conditional fourth round draft pick) in June 2017 for a 2018 first round draft pick and a conditional second round pick in 2019.  The Islanders might have made the trade as part of what would be an unsuccessful effort to keep John Tavares in blue and orange, but nevertheless, the Flames assumed the last three years of a contract paying Hamonic $3.86 million per year.  That deal expires at the end of this season, and his slow start (0-2-2, minus-7) has not given much comfort about the idea of resigning him.  He has shown some signs of offensive life recently with assists in two of his last four games.  Hamonic is 5-7-12, minus-6, in 29 career games against Washington.

Washington: Chandler Stephenson

Pretty, wasn’t it?  That goal Chandler Stephenson had to finish a four-on-one break against Buffalo on Friday night…

Skating, patience, stickhandling, placement.  He made it look easy.  On his only shot on goal of the game.  And that is what has been somewhat frustrating about Stephenson as a Capital.  Whether is it a reluctance, given his role as more of a checking/defensive forward, a lack of opportunity, or an inability to create openings, he hasn’t put a lot of pucks on net I his four-plus seasons with the Caps.  Over the last three seasons, including this one, only Ryan Reaves among forwards has recorded more games with no shots on goal (84) than Stephenson (77).  Not that his shooting is a major factor in team success.  Over those same last three seasons, the Caps are 43-23-11 in the 77 games in which he did not record a shot on goal, 40-20-4 in the 64 games in which he did.  Only 17 times in those 141 games over the last three years did Stephenson record to or more shot on goal in a game (the Caps going 12-3-2), and only once with as many as three (this past October 4^th in a 2-1 win over the Islanders).

Offense is what fans generally notice, and Stephenson has been a somewhat quiet player at that end.  It makes the contributions he does make in other areas less obvious and more important.  For example, over the past three seasons he is fifth among active Capital forwards in shorthanded ice time per game (1:30).  He is fifth in that group in blocked shots (69), first in faceoff winning percentage (52.0 percent; minimum: 50 draws taken), and perhaps not surprisingly since he picks his spots, third in shooting percentage (15.7).  One number that does jump out and glow red like an irritated bunion is his on-ice shot attempts differential at 5-on-5.  Over the last three seasons that number is minus-288, worst among active Caps forwards.  But back to the shots; Stephenson does have shots on goal in each of his last four games.  It might seem modest, but it is his longest such streak since he put together a five-game shots streak to close October and open November last season.  Stephenson is 1-0-1, even, in six career games against Calgary, his goal coming in the 5-3 win in Calgary on October 22^nd.

In the end…

Calgary is in something of a funk at the moment.  Going into their game against Columbus on Saturday night they have not won consecutive games since October 15/17 against Philadelphia and Detroit at home.  They are 3-3-1 since then and have been held to two or fewer goals four times in that span.  And, they just have not been a very good team on the road, going 3-5-1 overall with just that one win in regulation.  Adding to the burden, their game against the Caps is the last of a five-game road trip for the Flames, the first three of which were hard-fought one goal decisions (1-1-1).

Meanwhile, the Caps are running roughshod over opposing defenses and goaltenders, scoring five or more goals in five of their last seven games and averaging 4.71 goals per game (best in the league) while going 6-0-1 (best in the league).  There is little to think the Caps cannot keep the train moving smartly down the track in this one.

Capitals 5 – Flames 2