Washington Capitals: The All-Decade Stuff

As the 2010’s come to a close, many will look at All-Decade this, and All-Decade that.  Far be it from us to tarnish this great tradition.  With that in mind, we take a look back at some All-Decade thoughts on the Washington Capitals.  Of course, your opinion might differ, so think of these as conversation starters (all statistics are through December 12^th). 

Team of the decade (regular season…we know what the All-Decade playoff team was):

2015-2016 (56-18-8, 120 points)

The 2015-2016 Capitals squad had the most wins, the fewest losses in regulation, were second in both scoring offense and scoring defense, ranked top-five in both power play (fifth) and penalty kill (second), and they had the third-best combined 5-on-5 shooting and save percentage in the league.  The 56 wins tied for ninth-most all-time in the league and is the third-highest total since the 2004-2005 dark season (Detroit had 58 wins in 2005-2006; Tampa Bay had 62 wins last season).  Individually, the Caps had six players with at least 20 goals, seven with at least 40 points, while 18 different skaters recorded at least one game-winning goal.  Braden Holtby tied a league record in wins by a goaltender with 48, while finishing eighth in save percentage and sixth in goals against average among 34 goalies with at least 2,000 minutes played.  Holtby won the Vezina Trophy as top goalie, was named to the first team NHL All-Star squad and finished fourth in Hart Trophy voting for most valuable player.  Alex Ovechkin won the Richard Trophy for top goal scorer, finished sixth in Hart Trophy voting, and was named to the second team of the NHL All-Star squad at left wing. 

Honorable Mention:

• 2016-2017 (55-19-8, 118 points).  Led league in standings points for second consecutive year, top scoring defense in the league, best combined shooting and save percentages at 5-on-5, five 20-plus goal scorers, six players with 40-plus points.  Holtby finished second in Vezina Trophy voting, was named to second team on NHL All-Star squad.
• 2019-2020 (23-5-5, 51 points).  The calendar requires that the 2019-2020 team be considered.  While it is on pace to post decade highs in wins (57), points (127), and scoring offense (3.55 goals per game), the season is incomplete.  However, Alex Ovechkin is on a pace for a 52-goal season, John Carlson is on a pace for 112 points and a plus-47, and Braden Holtby is on a pace for his fourth career 40-win season.

Performance of the decade (regular season):

Alex Ovechkin, 2012-2013.  Ovechkin was the only player to top 30 goals in the abbreviated season (32 goals in 48 games, tied for third in points, and led the league by a wide margin in power play goals (16, to ten for Steven Stamkos).  He was named an NHL all-star at two positions (first team at left wing, second team at right wing), won the Richard and Hart Trophies.  Since 2010-2011 through this season, there were six instances of an NHL player playing in at least 40 games and averaging at least 0.65 goals per game.  Ovechkin had three of them, the only player to do it more than once.  This was his top season (0.67).

Honorable Mention:

• Braden Holtby, 2016-2017.  It was hard which of Holtby’s best seasons, 2015-2016 or 2016-2017, to consider.  However, in 2016-2017 his goals against average was better 2.07 to 2.20), his save percentage was better (.925 to .922), and he posted a league-high nine shutouts.  The only thing he did not do was win the Vezina Trophy; he finished second to Sergei Bobrovsky. 
• Alex Ovechkin, 2018-2019.  He posted his eighth 50-goal season (51) and had 89 points, his highest season total since 2009-2010 (109).  He won the Richard Trophy for the eighth time and was named to the first team of the NHL All-Star squad for the first time since 2014-2015 and climbed seven spots in the all-time career goal scoring list, finishing the season with 658 goals (14^th place).

Performance of the decade (postseason):

Alex Ovechkin, 2017-2018.  Ovechkin led all players in the post season with 15 goals and finished second in points (27).  His six power play goals led the playoffs.  He was named the Conn Smythe Trophy winner as most valuable player in the postseason.

Honorable Mention:

• Evgeny Kuznetsov, 2017-2018.  Kuznetsov led all players in assists (20), points (32), plus-minus (plus-12), and was tied for second in power play points (12).  He finished as the Conn Smythe Trophy runner-up.
• Braden Holtby, 2014-2015.  Of 109 goalies to log at least 500 minutes in a postseason since 2005-2006, Holtby’s performance in the 2015 postseason is the sixth best in goals against average (1.71) and third-best in save percentage (.944).  Both of those marks led the 2015 postseason. 

Moment/Game Performance of the decade (regular season):

Alex Ovechkin’s 1,000^th point (January 11, 2017).  Ovechkin reached many milestones in the decade – 500 goals, 600 goals, most career points by an NHL player born in Russia among them.  None, though, would seem to match his reaching the career 1,000 point, given the circumstances and the opponent.  The Capitals went into a mid-January game hosting the arch-rival Pittsburgh Penguins tied with the Pens and the New York Rangers in second place in the Metropolitan Division, three points behind the Columbus Blue Jackets.  Ovechkin entered the game with 999 career points.  It took him 35 seconds to record his 1,000^th point:

He scored another goal later in the contest, and the Caps beat the Penguins, 5-2.

Honorable Mention:

• Nicklas Backstrom, five-point performance on November 16, 2016.  The Caps opened the season with a shootout loss in Pittsburgh to the Penguins. The teams met for the first time during the season in Washington in mid-November.  Both teams were trying to stay within range of the Metropolitan Division leading New York Rangers, the Penguins four points back in second place and the Caps six points out of the lead in fourth place.  T.J. Oshie opened the scoring with a shorthanded goal in the eighth minute of the game, but then Backstrom went to work.  He posted a goal and an assist less than three minutes apart late in the first period to give the Caps a 3-0 lead at the first intermission.  He assisted on a Dmitry Orlov goal in the second to extend the lead and helped the Caps put things away with an assist on a Justin Williams power play goal early in the third period to make it 5-0.  After the teams exchanged goals, Backstrom closed the scoring with just over three minutes left on a goal to give the Caps their final 7-1 margin.  Backstrom finished 2-3-5, plus-3, and he won 18 of 27 draws in 17:49 of ice time.  It was the 42^nd five-point game in team history and the first time it was accomplished by a Capital at home against Pittsburgh.
• Tomas Vokoun, 42 save shutout vs. FLA on February 7, 2012).  Tomas Vokoun makes a surprise visit here, but this instance was historic in franchise history.  The Caps were struggling when the Florida Panthers visited Washington in early-February, going 6-6-2 over a 14-game span.  But the odd part about that stretch was that the Caps pitched three shutouts in their six wins, two by Vokoun and one by Michal Neuvirth.  Against the Panthers, Mathieu Perreault scored just 13 seconds into the game, and it would be the only goal Vokoun would need to post his third shutout in ten appearances covering four weeks.  He stopped ten first period shots, 17 in the second period, and 15 in the third for a total of 42 in the Caps’ 4-0 win.  Only three times in team history did a Caps goaltender pitch a shutout facing more shots on goal – Brent Johnson faced 46 shots on goal in a 1-0 win over Ottawa in April 1, 2006; Mike Palmateer stopped all 44 shots he faced in a 6-0 win over Philadelphia on December 21, 1980; and Dave Parro stopped all 44 shots he faced in a 4-0 win over Hartford on November 14, 1981.

Rookie of the Decade:

Evgeny Kuznetsov, 2014-2015 (11-26-37, plus-10, 4 PPG/13 PPP).  The Caps have had some fine rookie performances over the years – Ryan Walter going 28-28-56 in 69 games in 1978-1979, Bobby Carpenter and Chris Valentine each topping the 30-goal mark as rookies (32 and 30, respectively) in 1981-1982, and of course, Alex Ovechkin going 52-54-106 in his 2005-2006 rookie season.  However, since Nicklas Backstrom went 14-55-69 in his rookie year in 2007-2008, no Capital rookie posted ten or more goals with 30 or more points until 2014-2015.  In that season, Evgeny Kuznetsov, still technically a “rookie” since he played in only 17 games the previous season, recorded 11 goals and 37 points along with a plus-8 rating, making him only the third rookie in team history to achieve the rookie triple of at least ten goals, at least 35 points, and at least a plus-10 rating.  Backstrom did it in 2007-2008 (14-55-69, plus-13), and Rolf Edberg did it in 1978-1979 (14-27-41, plus-2).

Honorable Mention:

• John Carlson, 2010-2011 (7-30-37, plus-21, 3 GWG, 22:39 avg ice time).  This might be the toughest call of all the decade categories.  John Carlson is another of those “technical” rookies who played some games in the previous season, but he is the only rookie defenseman in team history, as the term is defined by the NHL, to dress for all 82 games of a regular season (Gord Lane played all 80 games as a rookie in the 1976-1977 season).  He is one of only three rookie defensemen in Caps history to post at least five goals and at least 30 points in his rookie season (Robert Picard was 10-27-37 in 1977-1978, and Greg Theberge was 5-32-37 in 1981-1982).  Carlson is the only one to post that double and a positive plus-minus rating (plus-21).
• Braden Holtby, 2010-2011 (10-2-2, 1.79, .934, 2 shutouts)/Michal Neuvirth, 2010-2011 (27-12-4, 2.45, .914, 4 shutouts).  It is hard to distinguish between Holtby and Neuvirth, even though the noteworthy numbers they bring to the debate are in different categories.  Neuvirth is the all-time franchise leader in wins for a goalie in his rookie season, and the 27 he posted in 2010-2011 was third among all rookie goalies that season.  He also tied Corey Crawford for most shutouts by a rookie goaltender in that season (four).  As for Holtby, in the same season he led all rookie goaltenders appearing in ten or more games in goals against average (1.79) and save percentage (.934).  He also had two shutouts among his 14 appearances, one of seven rookies to post more than one shutout in that season.

Draft of the Decade:

It is hard to rank drafts given the unique characteristics of the category.  It often takes years before a draft might bear fruit (this diminishes the effects of more recent drafts), and players might produce for a club that did not draft them as a result of trade, waiver, release/resigning, etc. (raising the question of whether returns in trade of drafted players should be considered).  So, rather than rank them, we will just note three drafts of consequence.

2012.  Caps fans remember this draft for the player who did not dress for the Caps (cough – Forsberg – cough).  But no draft produced more man-games played by skaters for the Caps than did the 2012 draft (803).  Ten skaters were selected, five of whom dressed for the Caps at some point in their respective careers.  The leader is Tom Wilson, who through Thursday dressed for 487 games.  Wilson is the prize of this draft, posting 68 of the 87 goals scored by this draft class for the Caps, 97 of the 141 assists, 165 of the 228 points, and 974 of the 1,027 penalty minutes.  Of course, this draft also has the one that got away, Filip Forsberg having played all 419 of his NHL regular season games for the Nashville Predators after being taken 11^th overall in this draft by the Caps.  The others in this draft to play for the Caps include: Chandler Stephenson (14-19-33, plus-2, in 168 games), Connor Carrick (1-5-6, minus-11, in 37 games), Riley Barber (0-0-0, even, in three games with Washington), and Christian Djoos (4-20-24, plus-22, in 108 games with the Capitals).

2010.  Where the 2012 draft was a study in “quantity,” the 2010 draft is one of “quality.”  Specifically, this was the “Evgeny Kuznetsov” draft.  Although this draft has more goals than the 2012 draft (114 to 87), more assists (259 to 141), and more points (373 to 228), Kuznetsov has almost the entire output (113-255-368).  Two other players among the five taken by the Caps in this draft played for the team – Stanislav Galiev (1-3-4, plus-3, in 26 games) and goaltender Philipp Grubauer (43-31-11, 2.29, .923 in 101 games).

2014.  Picking a third draft was not simple.  There was the 2013 draft, the “Andre Burakovsky” draft, but of the six players taken in that draft, four dressed for the Caps, and three of them (Burakovsky, Madison Bowey, and Zach Sanford) skate for other teams, leaving Tyler Lewington as the lone survivor of that draft with the Caps.  There was the 2015 draft, which is still a “futures” draft, Ilya Samsonov and Jonas Siegenthaler the only players among the four taken to reach the NHL but still in the early stages of the NHL phase of their development.  That leaves the 2014 draft, which is the “Jakub Vrana” draft.  Vrana is one of three players from that draft to have dressed for the Caps, but he dominates the numbers – 209 of 222 man-games played, 55 of the 56 goals, 53 of the 55 assists, and 108 of the 111 points.  Of the other two players to dress for the Caps from that draft – Nathan Walker and Shane Gersich – only Gersich is still with the organization.

All-Decade Team:

So, there you have it.  It’s been quite a decade.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 35: Capitals at Blue Jackets, December 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals face the Columbus Blue Jackets for the second time in a week when they visit Ohio on Monday night.  The Caps will be looking to even the score with the Blue Jackets in the season series after dropping a 5-2 decision last Monday in Washington.  That loss is the only blemish on the Caps’ record over their last nine games (8-1-0) and the only regulation loss suffered by the Caps in almost a month, since a 4-1 loss to the Rangers in New York on November 20^th.  On the other side, Columbus’ win over Washington is their only win over their last seven games (1-4-2), and they have lost three of their last four games on home ice.

Then and Now…

This will be the 42^nd regular season meetings of the Caps and Blue Jackets, Washington holding a 245-11-5 (one tie) record against Columbus, 12-7-2 on the road.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 20-10-5 against the Blue Jackets overall, 9-6-2 in Columbus.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

Columbus is not an especially prolific team when it comes to scoring goals, but someone has to lead the team, and at the moment that someone is Pierre-Luc Dubois, the only player for Columbus having hit double digits in goals scored.  Despite his teammates’ struggles at finding the back of the net, Dubois is on pace to finish the season with 26 goals, which would challenge his career best of 27 set last year, his sophomore season in the league.  Where his teammates’ problems appear in his numbers are in his assists.   Dubois has ten, and at that pace would finish with the fewest of his three-year career (26).

Dubois has taken on a bigger offensive load with the departure of Artemi Panarin for the New York Rangers in one at least one respect.  His shot frequency has increased significantly, jumping from 2.12 shots per game last season to 2.53 shots per game going into this contest.  There do appear to be limits as to the effectiveness of the increased shooting frequency.  Four seems to be the magic number.  Four times this season Dubois recorded more than four shots and has one goal on 21 shots to show for it, the Blue Jackets splitting the games (2-2-0).  On the other end, though, he has not made much of fewer chances.  In the 13 games in which he recorded one or two shots on goal, he has only one goal on 21 shots.  His output has dried up of late, though, going his last ten games without a goal.  Dubois is 1-3-4, plus-2, in nine career games against the Caps.

Among Columbus defensemen, fans probably recognize Seth Jones.  They might also know Zach Werenski or Ryan Murray on the Blue Jacket blue line.  Even Markus Nutivaara might be known to more than a few fans.  Unfortunately for the Blue Jackets, though, Werenski, Murray, and Nutivaara reported as injured.  That places more of a burden on rookie defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov.  Chances are that is a name fans outside of Columbus do not recognize.  He was taken in the sixth round (159^th overall) in the 2015 Entry Draft, the 54^th defenseman of 74 taken in that draft.  He was taken 30 spots ahead of Nutivaara not played a game in the NHL before this season, while Nutivaara dressed for 207 games over three years before this season.  Gavrikov has not made a big dent in the offensive side of the ledger (2-2-4 in 31 games), but he has been getting more ice time as the Columbus defensive ranks thin out.  Over his first 24 games he averaged 15:00 in ice time, but over his last seven he is averaging almost three minutes more a game (17:56).  In his only appearance to date against the Caps, last week, he went without a point and was plus-3 in 14:45 of ice time.

Next in the “Name That Blue Jacket” contest is forward Alexandre Texier.  Another rookie, although he did get into two games for Columbus last season.  The second round pick from the 2017 Entry Draft happens to be tied with Cam Atkiunson for the team lead in points (five) in December, and he is tied with Andrew Peeke (another rookie) for the team lead in plus-minus for the month (plus-5).  Unfortunately for the Blue Jackets, Texier’s contributions just have not been enough.  He has points in four of the six games Columbus has played in December, and the Blue Jackets lost three of them (1-1-2), the lone win coming against the Caps when he recorded an assist.  His recent production is quite a turnaround, though.  He was 3-1-4, minus-4, in his first 22 games this season before going 3-2-5, plus-5, in his last six games.  That game against the Caps last week and the assist he recorded is the only game and only point he has against the Caps in his career to date.

1.  Columbus struggles to score at home.  They have only 42 goals (third fewest in the league) in 17 games on home ice this season, the 2.47 goals per game second worst in the league, topping only Detroit (2.24).

2.  Only Tampa Bay has allowed more shorthanded goals on home ice (four) than Columbus (three, tied with five other teams).  No team has allowed more shorthanded goals on home ice without scoring one themselves that the Blue Jackets.

3.  Columbus is one of four teams in the league to have taken no major penalties on home ice this season (Buffalo, Toronto, and Dallas are the others).

4.  Only the New York Islanders have more overtime goals scored (four) than Columbus (three, tied with Toronto and Pittsburgh).

5.  Columbus does not have elite goal scoring so far this season, but they are egalitarian about it.  Of the 24 skaters to dress, 19 have at least one goal.

1.  The Caps have had 24 skaters dress this season, too.  Of that group, 17 have goals.  The difference is that while Pierre-Luc Dubois leads the Blue Jackets with ten goals, the Caps have six players with more than that number.

2.  While Columbus has two players with 20 points – Dubois and Gustav Nyquist – the Caps have seven players with more than that number.

3.  No team has more players with 20 or more penalty minutes than the Caps, with seven (tied with San Jose).

4.  The Caps have 11 players with game-winning goals, a total more than the win totals posted by New Jersey or Detroit so far.

5.  Washington has hit the crossbar 10 times in 34 games.  Last season they hit the crossbar 10 times in 82 games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Columbus: Gustav Nyquist

When it became certain that the Blue Jackets were going to lose Artemi Panarin to free agency, they had to try to replace his goal scoring with something.  The trouble is, replacing the 55 goals Panarin scored in two seasons in Columbus is not an easy task.  Part of the solution was to sign Gustav Nyquist as a free agent to a four-year/$22 million contract, a far cry from the seven-year/$81.5 million deal Panarin signed with the Rangers last July.  Nyquist is not and is not likely to be in Panarin’s class as a goal scorer, but he is a reliable sort who topped 20 goals four times in six seasons before this one.  However, he has only seven in 32 games so far this season, an 18-goal pace (Columbus fans no doubt have noticed that Panarin already has 19 with the Rangers this season).  He has fallen off of late.  Since recording a hat tricj in a 5-2 win over Pittsburgh on November 29^th, he is without a goal in his last seven games.  And it is not a case of shooting in bad luck.  Nyquist has only seven shots on goal in his last six games, three of them in the most recent game, a 4-3 overtime loss to Ottawa.  Even with the hat trick against the Pens, he has a total of five goals over his last 23 games, precisely the 18-goal pace he is on overall.  Nyquist is 6-7-13, plus-2, in 18 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Lars Eller

Before Lars Eller burned his name into the Capitals history book with the game-winning, series-clinching, Cup-winning goal in Las Vegas in the 2018 postseason, Lars Eller scored the goal that made all of that possible, a goal in the second overtime of Game 3 of the first round series against Columbus on the Nationwide Arena ice sheet that kept the Caps from falling into an 0-3 hole and ending their Stanley Cup dreams before they started.  He added an empty net goal to clinch Game 6 for the Caps and send them on to the second round, but here is the odd thing about that.  Eller has more goals scored against Columbus as a Capital in the postseason (two in six games) than he has as a Capital against the Blue Jackets in the regular season (one in 13 games).  And, he does not have a point in his last six games against the Blue Jackets.  Not that he has been shy about sending pucks to the net; he has 18 shots on goal in those six games without finding the back of the net (he had only eight shots on goal in his first seven games as a Cap against Columbus).  If a Capital seems due to score against this team, Eller might be a player to watch.  Eller is 2-3-5, minus-4, in 24 career games overall against Columbus.

In the end…

The Caps have had success against Columbus on their ice sheet in the postseason, going 3-0 in the three playoff games the teams played in Ohio.  The regular season has been a different matter, the Caps going 6-5-2 in their last 13 visits to Columbus.  But these are teams going in different directions at the moment.  Columbus has stumbled at home recently with their 1-3-0 record over their last four games, while the Caps have been the gold standard in road play this season.  Makes it hard to pick against the Caps, regardless of last week’s result.

Capitals 4 – Blue Jackets 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 11

For the Washington Capitals, Week 11 was one of those weeks where it is not how you start, but how you finish.  The Caps started the week and each of the three games on their schedule slowly, but they closed with a rush in the second and third games of the week to maintain their commanding lead in the Metropolitan Division and the best record in the league.

Record: 2-1-0

Another winning week for the Capitals.  That makes nine times in 11 tries that the Caps grabbed more than half of the standings points available, twice earning half.  Yes, it was only the sixth time in 11 weeks that the Caps recorded a loss at all, but that in itself is a rather amazing fact.  The loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets was equal parts surprising and not.  The Caps have generally done well in their first game back from a trip that included a visit to California.  As we noted in the prognosto for this game, “In each of the last five seasons in the Caps’ first home game following a road trip that included the California trip, they won, twice against Winnipeg, once each against Carolina, Minnesota, and the Islanders.”  So, in that respect, the loss was a bit of a surprise.  On the other hand, it was the first home game after a road trip, and these can be a problem, especially against a motivated divisional opponent.  In that respect it was less surprising.

But the Caps recovered smartly, continuing their spooky dominance of the Boston Bruins, beating the B’s for the 16^th time in 17 tries, dating back to October 2014, on Wednesday.  Then, the Caps wrapped up the week with a chance to extend their unusual dominance on the road, and they did just that, beating Tampa Bay for their 15^th win in 18 road games (15-2-1), those 15 road wins being as many or more than ten other teams have in total.

Offense: 3.33/game (season: 3.59/2nd)

Even with the relatively weak effort against Columbus to open the week, it was a good week on offense for the Caps.  With three goals against Boston and five against Tampa Bay, the Caps finished the week having scored three or more goals in eight of their last nine games.  And, while they might have slipped a notch in their scoring average for the season with ten goals in three games in Week 11, they still have the seventh-highest scoring average per game since the dark 2004-2005 season.  The Caps have done it be being unfriendly guests.  The five goals scored in Tampa against the Lightning was the eighth time in 18 road games this season that the Caps scored five or more goals in a game.

Individually, T.J. Oshie led the team with three goals, giving him 14 for the season and pushing him within one of Jakub Vrana for second place on the club.  Nicklas Backstrom was the other Capitals with a multi-goal week, posting a pair, one in the 5-2 loss to Columbus to open the week and the game’s first goal in the Caps’ 5-2 win over Tampa Bay to end the week.  In all, seven Caps shared in the ten goals that were scored over the three games.

Backstrom led the team in points for the week (2-3-5), posting points in all three games to extend his points streak to six games.  At week’s end, Backstrom was 4-10-14 in his last 13 games.  Oshie had four points for the week (1-3-4), and Evgeny Kuznetsov had three (all assists).  In all, 13 of the 18 skaters to dress for the week had at least one point.

Defense: 3.00/game (season: 2.79/11th)

That Columbus posted five goals on the Caps to open the week should not be surprising.  The 38 shots on goal the Blue Jackets had was the third highest shot total allowed on home ice by the Caps this season (they allowed 40 to both Montreal and Florida in November).  To their credit, they returned to more disciplined play in this category as the week wore on, allowing 32 shots on goal to Boston in the middle game of the week and only 28 to Tampa Bay to wrap up the week.  Those 28 shots the Lightning managed was the second-lowest shot total they recorded on home ice so far this season (they had 28 against Anaheim on November 23^rd in a 6-2 win).

The shot attempts allowed pattern followed their win-loss success pattern as well.  They allowed Columbus 46 shot attempts at 5-on-5, the ninth time in 15 home games to that point in which they allowed at least 45 shot attempts at fives.  They followed that up with holding Boston to 39 shot attempts at 5-on-5, the fifth time in 16 games on home ice that they held an opponent under 40 attempts.  The 41 attempts allowed to the Lightning might not appear particularly impressive, but the Caps never trailed in the game and spent just under 23 minutes of the contest tied with the Lightning.  They spent most of the game with a scoreboard advantage, and the shot attempts appear to reflect this somewhat.  The Caps finished a minus-4 in shot attempt differential in that game, but it was the tenth time in 18 road games that the Caps were even or better in shot attempt differential at fives when leading, suggesting that they could still clamp down on defense when holding a lead.

Goaltending: 2.68 / .918 (season: 2.67 / .913)

The Caps continue to improve in this category, if only marginally in Week 11.  Although the save percentage overall was not quite as good as it has been in weeks leading up to Week 11, it is worth noting that at the end of the week, 18 goalies logging at least 300 minutes Since November 1^st had save percentages of .922 or better, and the Caps had two of them – Braden Holtby (.926) and Ilya Samsonov (.922).

Holtby got the call in the first two games of the week, and it was the last 40 minutes of the game against Columbus that kept him from having a better week.  He had already stopped 19 of 20 first period shots against the Blue Jackets, but he allowed three goals on 17 shots over the last two periods in the loss.  He followed that up with his usual mastery of the Bruins, stopping 30 of 32 shots in the 3-2 win.  It was the 15^th time in 21 appearances that Holtby allowed two or fewer goals to the Bruins, the 13^th time the instance ended in a win.  Overall, Holtby extended his career record against Boston to 18-3-0, 1.82, .944, with four shutouts of the Bruins.

The last game of the week belonged to Samsonov, and he was superb, stopping 26 of 28 shots in the 5-2 win over the Lightning.  Keep in mind, this was a team that, while they have had struggles winning on home ice, they have not had trouble scoring.  Six times in their previous 15 home games, Tampa Bay posted five or more goals, and they had been held to two or fewer only four times.  But here is the kicker.  Samsonov became the first visiting goalie to beat the Lightning at Amalie Arena this season.  OK, it was the first appearance by a rookie goalie against the Lightning against Tampa Bay this season.

Power Play: 1-for-8/12.5 percent (season: 23.5 percent/5th)

It would be hard to find a silver lining in the power play in Week 11.  The Caps did avoid being blanked for the first time this season over a week with the man advantage, but the 12.5 percent conversion rate was their second worst of the year (1-for-9/11.1 percent in Week 7).  Boston was the only team they faced for the week that finished the week in the top half of the penalty kill rankings (tenth).  Tampa Bay and Columbus, against which the Caps went 0-for-5 combined, finished ranked 18^th and 20^th, respectively.  It was worse as the week went on, at least from a shooting standpoint.  After posting seven shots on goal in 4:38 of power play time against Columbus, the Caps managed a single shot against Boston (their only goal for the week) in 4:47 with the man advantage and a single shot in 2:36 in power play time against Tampa Bay.

T.J. Oshie, who had the lone power play goal for the week, led the team with three power play shots on goal.  Alex Ovechkin (2), Evgeny Kuznetsov (2), Jakub Vrana, and John Carlson had the others.

Penalty Killing: 14-for-15/93.3 percent (season: 85.1 percent/5th)

If the power play had an off week, the penalty kill was having nothing of the sort.  Columbus finished the week as a mediocre power play squad (19^th in the league), but Tampa Bay and Boston (second and third at the end of the week) are what pass for elite power play teams in the league this season, and the Caps were 9-for-10 combined against them.

The bad part was having to skate off 15 shorthanded situations, five in each game.  It was the first time this season that the Caps faced five or more shorthanded situations in three consecutive games and the first time they did so since Games 8-10 of the 2017-2018 season when they faced five against Detroit (an overtime win) and six each against Florida and Vancouver (both in regulation losses).  As it was, no team spent more time killing penalties than the Caps in Week 11 (25:56), and it meant that by week’s end, only San Jose had spent more time shorthanded for the season (218:22) than had the Caps (211:22).  The takeaway, though, was that the penalty kill allowed the Caps to be the only team in the league to rank in the top five in both power play and penalty kill.

Faceoffs: 88-for-173/50.9 percent (season: 49.6 percent/19th)

It was a pretty good week for the Caps in the faceoff circle.  In addition to winning the week, they were over 50 percent in both the offensive (52.0 percent) and defensive (52.1 percent) zones.  On the other hand, perhaps it should have been a good week here, given the nature of the opposition.  Tampa Bay finished the week as an above-50 percent team (51.2 percent), and the Caps’ 28-for-53 performance against the Lightning could be seen as a bright spot.  However, Columbus finished the week ranked 26^th in the league (48.3 percent), so going 37-for-64 (57.8 percent) was not unexpected.  The odd part of the week was the game against Boston.  A team usually thought of as being very efficient in this part of the game, the Bruins are a below-50 percent team this season.  Still, they owned the Caps, holding the Caps to 23 wins in 56 draws (41.1 percent).

Individually, three of the four Caps taking at least ten faceoffs finished over 50 percent.  However, it was the Capital finishing under 50 percent for the week – Nicklas Backstrom – who was the only one of the four Caps to finish over 50 percent in both the offensive (53.3 percent) and defensive (63.2 percent) zones.

Goals by Period:

In the “it’s how you finish” theme, the goals by period certainly reflect strong finishes, for the most part.  The Caps did allow three goals to Columbus in the third period of their contest, but they scored two themselves.  To that, the Caps added the game-winner in the third period of their 3-2 win over Boston, and they broke open a close game with four third period goals against Tampa Bay in a 5-2 win.  The strong performances in the third periods of games allowed the Caps to move into second place in third period goals scored this season (45), one goal behind Bowton (46).  Their two second period goals gave them 40 on the season, allowing them to join Pittsburgh as the only teams in the league with at least 40 goals scored in both the second and third periods of games through Week 11.

Year-over-Year:

A mere “year-over-year" comparison is becoming insufficient to illustrate how well the Caps have performed.  They continue to outpace almost all former editions of the club in performance.  The 24 wins and 53 points earned through 34 games is the second best start in team history, trailing only the 2015-2016 club that had 26 wins and 54 points at the same point of the schedule.

However, the year-over-year numbers to paint the picture of a solid team in each end of the ice.  The goals scored is identical to last season, so the effort to build a better two-way squad has not diminished production in that end of the ice to this point.  However, a seven-goal improvement on defense is more than a fifth of a goal per game, which goes a long way to explaining an eight-point improvement in the standings.  The improvement is more than explained by the penalty kill, which is more than nine percentage points better this year over last and, more important, 12 goals better.

Not that the Caps have been slouches at even strength, at least in limiting opponents in attempts.  The Caps have shaved more than two shot attempts per game off their attempts allowed at 5-on-5 while increasing attempts on offense slightly.  The net of the two result in almost a three-attempt improvement per game – one per period – at 5-on-5, this year over last.

In the end…

When the worst you can say is that the Caps had a “good” week, not a “great” week, things are going pretty well.  Through 34 games, the Caps are on a pace to match the point total that Tampa Bay finished with last season (128).  That would be a point total exceeded only three times in NHL history, only once since the Montreal dynasty days in the 1970’s when they did it in consecutive years, 132 points in 1976-1977 and 129 points in 1977-1978 (Detroit had 131 points in 1995-1996).  It would be tough to maintain this pace for another 48 games, but it is an impressive feat nonetheless to have reached this point in the season with a record as remarkable as this.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Nicklas Backstrom (2-3-5, plus-2, 58.8 percent faceoff wins in offensive/defensive zones, led forwards in ice time (58:17))
• Second Star: T.J. Oshie (3-1-4, even, one power play goal)
• Third Star: Garnet Hathaway (1-0-1, even, game-winning goal, ten credited hits, five blocked shots (led forwards))

Captain rates the week…

Three puppers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 34: Capitals at Lightning, December 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals embark on the first leg of a three-game road trip on Saturday night when they visit the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena.  The Caps shook off a 5-2 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets on Monday with a 3-2 win over the Boston Bruins on Wednesday for their seventh win in eight games.  The Lightning might finally be waking up from their long slumber to start the season.  After dropping four of six games (2-3-1), they have won two in a row, both by one-goal margins, a 2-1 win on the road against the Florida Panthers on Tuesday and a 3-2 win over Boston on home ice on Thursday.

Then and Now…

The Caps and Lightning will meet for the 130^th time in the regular season on Saturday.  Washington has an 80-33-10 (six ties) record against the Bolts, 36-21-5 (two ties) in Tampa.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 44-17-10 against Tampa Bay, 18-12-5 on the road.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

Fans expect Steven Stamkos to lead the Lightning in goals.  He does (13).  They expect Nikita Kucherov to lead the team in points.  He does (33).  But if there is an underrated player on the club, it might be Alex Killorn.  If one word describes him in his eight years with the Lightning, it might be “consistent.”  In six full seasons with the club coming into this season, he posted goals in a range of 14 (in 2015-2016 to 19 (in 2016-2017) and points in a range of 36 (in 2016-2017) to 47 (in 2017-2018). He has missed only two games in the last four seasons coming into this one.  He was a plus-22 in each of the last two seasons before this one.  He had 45 penalty minutes in each of the last two seasons before this one.  With Killorn, one knows what one gets.

This season, however, Killorn might have found another level. In 28 games to date (he missed two games to a lower body injury at the end of November), he has nine goals and 24 points, putting him on a pace for 25 goals and 69 points, both of which would shatter previous career highs (19 goals in 2016-2017 and 47 points in 2017-2018).  Part of his success is due to his production on the power play, where his four goals have already tied a career best (four in 2016-2017).  Killorn has been on fire of late.  After going 2-4-6, plus-3, in his first 13 games, he is 7-11-18, plus-4, in his last 15 games, including a four-point game (1-3-4) in a 7-1 win over San Jose last Saturday.  Killorn is 8-1-9, minus-5, in 22 career games against the Caps.

The Lightning have a veteran defensive group.  Of the eight defensemen to dress this season, six are age 29 or older.  At the other end, as the youngest defenseman in the group, is Mikhail Sergachev.  The 21-year old, former ninth overall draft pick (2016, by Montreal) is in his third season with the Lightning after spending four games of the 2016-2017 season with Montreal and then being traded to Tampa Bay with a conditional second round pick in the 2018 Entry Draft for Jonathan Drouin and a conditional sixth round pick in the 2018 Entry Draft.  Sergachev had a fine first season with the Lightning, going 9-31-40, plus-11, in 79 games in 2017-2018.  His nine goals tied for second among rookie defensemen (with Thomas Chabot), trailing only the New York Islanders’ Ryan Pulock (10).  His 31 assists trailed on New Jersey’s Will Butcher (39) among rookie defensemen, and he and Butcher were the only rookie defensemen to post 40 or more points, Sergachev with 40 and Butcher with 44.  He slipped a bit last season, posting six goals and 32 points in 75 games.

This season, Sergachev is back to averaging just over a half-point per game (4-12-16 in 30 games).  He arrived at those totals to date in a roundabout way.  He had six points (all assists) in his first five games, but then he went 0-3-3 in his next 13 games.  He got hot again, going 4-3-7 over the following eight games, but he is now without a point in his last four contests and managed only two shots on goal over those four games.  Watch his ice time.  In 12 games in which he skated less than 18 minutes, the Lightning are 9-1-2, while they are 7-10-1 in the 18 games he skated more than 18 minutes.  Sergachev is 1-2-3, even, in seven career games against the Capitals.

He led the league in goalie wins in 2017-2018 (44).  He did so again last season (39).  Both years, he was a Vezina Trophy finalist, winning the prize last season while also being named as the goalie on the league’s first team all-star squad.  However, there are lingering doubts about Andrei Vasilevskiy being in that elite group of NHL netminders, and that is a product of an iffy postseason record (15-15, 2.83, .912).  If anything, that playoff record has deteriorated over time.  In his first 22 postseason appearances, Vasilevskiy was 12-7, 2.51, .923.  In his last 11 appearances, he is 3-8, 3.41, .890, and he has lost his last six decisions.  Until that record changes, there will be those lingering doubts about whether Vasilevskiy is in that top echelon of NHL goaltenders.

In that regard, perhaps his start to the 2019-2020 season will take some of the heat off, if only because he is off the pace he set over the previous two seasons.  His 2.78 goals against average in 22 games would, if he finished the season there, be his worst in six years in the NHL.  His .910 save percentage is within rounding error of his worst season (2015-2016, when he appeared in only 24 games).  He does not yet have a shutout this season after posting a total of 14 over the previous two seasons.  Vasilevskiy has already lost eight games in regulation this season.  He did not suffer his eighth loss in regulation last year until March 7^th and had only ten all year.  And, streakiness has crept into his game.  Starting on November 1st, he had a four-game stretch with an aggregate save percentage of .875.  He followed that up with a three-game stretch with a .941 save percentage.  Then, it was four games with a .876 save percentage.  And now, he goes into the game against the Caps with a three-game streak with a .958 save percentage.  Vasilevskiy is 4-5-1, 3.66, .899 in ten career appearances against Washington.

1.  Only three teams have fewer standings points earned on home ice than the Lightning (17) through Thursday’s games – Ottawa (16), New Jersey (13), and Detroit (11).  The Lightning already have six losses in regulation in 15 games on home ice; last season they had a total of seven in 41 home games.

2.  No team in the league has more power play goals scored on home ice than Tampa Bay (21), and they have the league’s best home power play (36.2 percent).  On the other hand, their 37 even strength goals on home ice are ranked in a tie for 19^th place with New Jersey and the New York Rangers.

3.  Only Buffalo and St. Louis have fewer blocked shots on home ice (156 apiece) than the Lightning (165).

4.  The Lightning have the best ratio on home ice of takeaways to giveaways (1.42:1 on 122 takeaways and 86 giveaways).

5.  Tampa Bay has a positive shot attempts differential at 5-on-5 on home ice in almost all situations: when ahead (plus-19), when behind (plus-101), in close situations (plus-9).  Not when tied, though.  Their minus-29 is fourth-worst in the league in those situations.

1.  Washington leads the league in goals scored on the road (61) and scoring average (3.58 per game).

2.  The Caps lead all Eastern Conference teams in power play goals scored on the road (14, three more than Carolina).  Their power play is also best among Eastern Conference teams on the road (27.5 percent).

3.  Washington has spent more time on the road than any other Eastern Conference team in killing penalties (108:57).

4.  No team has been charged with more giveaways on the road so far than the Caps (179).

5.  John Carlson has 27 points on the road this season.  By itself, this would rank fifth in total points among defensemen through Thursday’s games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Kevin Shattenkirk

From February 19, 2011 until February 27, 2017 a span of time that encompassed defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk’s tenure with the St. Louis Blues, Shattenkirk was 11^th in total goals scored by defensemen (59), ninth in assists (199), ninth in points (258), tied for fourth in power play goals (32), second in power play points (129), ninth in personal shot attempts differential at 5-on-5 (plus-958).  He was even second among defensemen in Gimmick goals scored (eight).  Little wonder he was considered the prize among players available at the 2017 trading deadline.

And then he came to the Caps.  It did not go well.  His regular season numbers were good enough (2-12-14, plus-4, in 19 games), but he was 1-5-6, minus-4, in 13 games in the postseason, and there weren’t many tears shed when he signed in the ensuing offseason as a free agent with the New York Rangers.  Starting with his stay with the Caps through last season, he played in 138 regular season games with Washington and the Rangers, went 9-56-65, minus-25.  The goal total was tied for 93^rd among defensemen over that span, the assists were tied for 40^th, the points were tied for 60^th.  He had four power play goals (tied for 44^th) and 26 power play points (tied for 30^th).  There didn’t seem to be many tears shed in Manhattan when he signed with the Lightning as a free agent last July.

He has rehabilitated his image, to a point, with the Lightning.  Through 30 games he has five goals, almost his total in 119 games with the Rangers (seven), and his 22 points put him on a 60-point pace that would eclipse his total of 51 with the Rangers.  Part of the solution might be in a simplified role.  He is getting a lot less power play ice time (1:38 per game) than he had in any of his previous nine seasons (almost a full minute less than he had with the Rangers last season (2:26) that was his previous low average).  On the other hand, he is getting more even strength ice time (17:09 per game) than he had in either Washington or New York.  In 18 career games against the Caps, Shattenkirk is 1-6-7, minus-2.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

There are some players of whom it could be said, “he could fall out of bed on his 50^th birthday and put up points.”  Nicklas Backstrom did not fall out of bed, and he is not yet near his 50^th birthday, but he did miss eight games with an upper body injury before returning to the lineup against Columbus last Monday.  Backstrom had a goal and an assist in that game, and then he followed it up with an assist against Boston on Wednesday to give him points in five straight games, a streak interrupted by that injury absence.  He has averaged a point per game over his last dozen games (3-9-12).  Scoring at a point per game pace is not new for Backstrom.  Among the 103 Capitals to dress for at least 200 games with the club, he is fourth in points per game (0.97), trailing only Mike Gartner (1.04), Alex Ovechkin (1.11), and Dennis Maruk (1.26).

Backstrom is closing on other personal milestones.  With two more assists he will become the first player in team history with 700 career assists with the club.  Six more points, and he will become the second player with 900 points (Ovechkin has 1,244).  He is already the all-time leader in plus-minus, but with a plus-2 in this game would hit the plus-120 mark for his career.  With six power play points he would pass both Brothers Sedin, Daniel and Henrik, on the all-time ranking in power play point among players born in Sweden with 370 power play points.

The odd part of Backstrom’s performance this season is not the points, though.  It is the absence of them.  The Caps are 6-1-3 in games in which he went without a point, 11-3-1 in the games in which he had one or more points.  Backstrom is 13-47-60, plus-9, in 50 career games against the Lightning.  Those 60 points against the Lightning are the most he has against any NHL team in his career.  Since he came into the league in 2007-2008, only Ovechkin among all other players has more points against Tampa Bay (72).

In the end…

The Capitals have had good luck recently in Tampa, earning points in eight of their last ten visits (6-2-2), outscoring the Lightning, 36-32.  Over those ten games, the Caps have power play goals in nine of them (12-for-31 overall, 38.7 percent) while allowing only five power play goals to the Lightning in 28 chances (17.9 percent).  It is on that which the result might turn, the Caps ability to make the Lightning pay for playing outside the rules.

Capitals 4 – Lightning 3

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 32: Bruins at Capitals, December 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It is a mid-week matchup on national television on Wednesday night, pitting the Washington Capitals against the Boston Bruins at Capital One Arena.  These two teams sit atop the league standings, the Caps with 22 wins and 49 points, while the Bruins have 20 wins and 46 points.  The odd part of this matchup, though, is that both teams are coming off losses, the Caps dropping a 5-2 decision to the Columbus Blue Jackets on Monday in their first game at home after sweeping a four-game road trip, and the Bruins are losers of two straight, a 4-1 loss to the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday and a 5-2 loss in Ottawa to the Senators on Monday.

Then and Now…

This will be the 162^nd meeting of these teams in the all-time series.  Washington has a 63-69-8 (21 ties) record against the B’s, 33-31-4 (12 ties) on home ice.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 31-12-7 against the Bruins overall, 16-5-4 on home ice.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

David Pastrnak has received the attention this season with his hot goal scoring start, but it is Brad Marchand with whom he is tied for the team goal scoring lead on the road at nine goals apiece.  Marchand is also the team’s points leader on the road to date with 22, tied with Connor McDavid for fourth place in the league in road scoring.  Marchand, for all his annoying qualities, has become one of the most prolific scorers in the game.  Since 2016-2017, he is one of only three players to record at least 125 goals and at least 300 points (127/316).  Mc David (131/376) and Nikita Kucherov (130/344) are the others.  When one adds suspensions and fines, Marchand stands alone as a combination of high-end production and high-end aggravation.  How aggravating?  Six suspensions in his career totaling 19 games, eight fines totaling more than $670,000, and two licking incidents. 

Marchand has yet to run afoul of the league so far this season, but with him it always just seems a matter of time.  What he has done this season is produce points in bunches.  He has 14 multi-point games, tied for second in the league behind Leon Draisaitl (16).  And, perhaps not surprisingly, they are important to Bruin success.  The Bruins are 12-1-1 in those 14 multi-point games, their first regulation loss coming in Boston’s 5-2 loss to Ottawa on Monday night.  Putting up points in bunches has not diminished Marchand’s consistency.  Only three times in 31 games this season has he had consecutive games without a point. However, even with the two assists he posted against Ottawa on Monday, he has only three points in his last six games, all of them assists.  Marchand is 7-9-16, minus-13, in 30 career games against Washington.

Sometime this season, defenseman Zdeno Chara is likely to dress for his 1,000^th game as a Bruin, becoming only the second defenseman in team history to do so, joining Ray Bourque (1,518).  No active defenseman in the NHL is within 7,000 minutes of ice time recorded of Chara (36,444 to 29,373 for Jay Bouwmeester).  However, he is also the oldest skater in the league at age 42, and a concession to his age is ice time.  At the moment it is Charlie McAvoy who has the highest average ice time among Boston defensemen so far this season (22:35 to Chara’s 21:21).  What McAvoy has not done with all that ice time, though, is score a goal.  He is the only one of six Bruins defensemen to dress for more than five games yet to record one this season, all nine of his points (second to Tory Krug among defensemen) coming on assists.  McAvoy is no stranger to high ice time loads. He averaged more than 22 minutes per game in each of his first two seasons.  On the other hand, he has an injury history, missing 19 games of the 2017-2018 season to heart arrhythmia and an MCL sprain and 27 games of the 2018-2019 season to a lower body injury and a concussion.

The odd part about McAvoy’s ice time is that more is not necessarily a good thing.  Boston is 7-2-6 in the 15 games in which he skated more than 22:30, 13-3-0 in the 16 games in which he skated 22:30 or less. He has some other odd statistical quirks about his record this season, too.  For instance, the Bruins have not lost a game in regulation in which he did not receive credit for a hit (6-0-2).  Blocked shots, though, are a good thing.  Boston is 11-1-3 in the 15 games in which he recorded two or more, 9-4-3 in the 16 games in which he had one or none.  Another… he has three shots on goal in only three games this season, but the Bruins lost all of them (0-1-2).  McAvoy is 0-3-3, even, in six career games against the Caps.

Can Tuukka Rask make it tuukka…uh, two in a row?  Rask won his last appearance against the Caps, pitching a 24-save shutout last February 3^rd in a 1-0 Boston win.  It was only the second win Rask has against the Caps in his career, the odd thing about the wins being that both came via shutout.  The other came in a 3-0 win over the Caps in March 2014.  The Caps have been Rask’s personal nightmare for almost all of his 13 seasons.  Consider that against the rest of the league, Rask has a career record of 276-142-56, 2.24, .923, with 45 shutouts.  But against Washington, he is 2-11-5, 3.10, .889, with two shutouts.  Against individual teams, Rask has a higher GAA only against Anaheim (3.62 in eight games), and only against the Ducks (.886) and Vancouver (.865 in ten games) does he have a lower save percentage.  Anaheim and Caolorado are the only teams against which Rask has fewer wins (one in eight games against each team).

Rask has been unbeatable so far on home ice, at least in regulation, posting an 8-0-3, 2.05, .931 record with two shutouts.  He has been more vulnerable on the road, though, barely… 5-3-0, 2.39, .921. He has been universally stingy though, the seven complete games he has in allowing one or no goals being tied for second-most in the league, trailing only Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck (nine).  Four of the instances came on home ice, three on the road.  Rask goes into this game having allowed seven goals on 57 shots (.877 save percentage) in his last two outings, both of them losses (0-1-1).

1.  Boston is the only team in the league that, through Monday’s games, is top-five in the league in scoring offense (fifth), scoring defense (third), power play (third), and penalty kill (fourth).

2.  Only Philadelphia has suffered more losses via the Gimmick (five) than Boston (four, tied with Chicago and New Jersey). They are the only team with four or more Gimmick losses without a win and only one of two with two or more losses without a win (St. Louis is 0-3).

3.  This might be a game in which shots matter.  Both Boston and the Caps are tied for second fewest losses in regulation when outshooting opponents (two; the Islanders have one).

4.  Boston has the second-best winning percentage in the league when allowing the first goal (.583/7-2-3), trailing only the New York Islanders (.600/9-5-1).

5.  Odd Bruins stat… they recorded 40 or more shots in road games four times so far this season and lost three of them (1-2-1).

1.  Only the New York Rangers among Eastern Conference teams have been charged with more penalties (136) than the Caps (131), and in the league as a whole, only Calgary has been charged with more minor penalties (124) than the Caps (119).

2.  No team has missed the net more than Caps when shooting the puck this season (420 missed shots).

3.  If history is a guide, don’t turn in early.  The Caps and Bruins rank 1-2 in third period goals, Boston leading the league with 43 and the Caps tied with three other teams with 40.

4.  The Caps have out-shot opponents 17 times this season and earned points in 15 of those games (13-2-2).  The win total tops the league; the total of games with points earned is tied with Pittsburgh (12-7-3).

5.  The Caps time differential on special teams (minus-33:17) is second-worst in the league, trailing only San Jose (minus-38:01).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: David Pastrnak

Since 2005-2006, only three players in the league recorded at least 25 goals in his team’s first 31 games – Alex Ovechkin (twice – 28 goals in 2018-2019 and 26 goals in 2013-2014) and Sidney Crosby (26 goals in 2010-2011) are two of them.  The other is Boston’s David Pastrnak, who has 25 goals in 31 games to date.  He has slowed down a bit, though.  After putting up 11 goals in his first ten games, he had six in his next ten and eight in his last 11 games.  It is still a 55-goal pace that he put up in his last 21 games, but what might be signaling a slowdown a bit stronger is that he is without a goal in his last four games, his longest goal scoring drought, so to speak, of the season.

Pastrnak has displayed a home-road split in his goal scoring.  In 18 games on home ice this season he has 16 goals, well clear of the 13 goals on home ice scored by Auston Matthews and Jack Eichel for most in the league.  On the road, he has nine goals in 13 games (as many as Caps’ defenseman John Carlson, but we will get to him in a moment).  That is still tied for fifth-most in the league (with, among others, teammate Brad Marchand), but it is less impressive than, say, the 15 goals scored in 17 road games by Alex Ovechkin (most in the league). 

Pastrnak is certainly no fluke or fly-by-night goal scorer.  He is almost certain to be a 30-plus goal scorer for the fourth straight season and is a good bet to shatter his career best of 38 goals set last season in just 66 games.  It does raise the question of whether, at still the young age of 23, he is the next in a series of “heir apparents” to Ovechkin as the league’s premier goal scorer.  Over the last four seasons, including this one, he is second to Ovechkin in total goals scored (132 to 154 for Ovechkin), so he has to be considered a contender.  In 13 career games against the Caps, Pastrnak is 4-5-9, minus-11.

Washington: John Carlson

John Carlson is putting up some wild numbers early, but there is a distinct “home versus road” quality to them.  On the road he is 9-18-27, plus-17, in 17 games.  That would be first in goals, first in assists, first in points, and first in plus-minus.  And, he is shooting 18.0 percent, tops among all defensemen with at least ten shots on goal.  Only once in 17 road games did he not record a point, that in Vancouver on October 25^th in a 6-5 Gimmick win. 

Then there are the home games.  In 15 games at Capital One Arena, Carlson is 2-14-16, plus-2.  The goal total is tied for 37^th among defensemen, the assists still rank first, the points rank second, and the plus-minus is tied for 88^th.  His 4.8 shooting percentage ranks tied for 93^rd (with, among others, Dmitry Orlov).  Carlson has points in eight of 15 games played on home ice.  He has been all or nothing in wins on home ice, posting four multi-point games in wins and four games without a point in wins.  He has four games on home ice with four or more shots on goal in wins, four others in wins in which he had one or no shots.

Then there is the odd plus-minus thing on home ice.  Three times he has been plus-2 on home ice, but he did not record a point.  Three times he has been minus-2, and he had points in two of those games.  However, Carlson is 5-10-15, plus-12, in his career against Boston.  All of his career goals against the Bruins have been scored on home ice.

In the end…

Boston does everything well – score, defend, play special teams.  The Caps just roll over opponents like Lord Juggernaut’s cart.  When the Caps beat the Bruins in Boston, 3-2 in a Gimmick, in mid-November, it was their 15^th win in the last 16 games against the Bruins.  They are 11-3-0 in their last 14 games against the Bruins on home ice and will be trying to avoid consecutive losses to Boston on home ice for the first time since April 2010 and the first time losing consecutive games to Boston in regulation on home ice since the 1995-1996 season.  It is the kind of odd dominance one team has over another in team sports, even when both teams have a history of strong play otherwise.  There is little reason to think it won’t continue in a manner pleasing to Caps fans.

Capitals 3 – Bruins 2