The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 38: Capitals at Bruins, December 23rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

‘Twas the day before the day before Christmas, and that means one last game for the Washington Capitals before settling in for a four-day winter nap.  The Caps will visit Boston on Monday night to take on the Bruins.  This will be the last game of the three-game regular season series between the teams, and the Caps will be looking to win for the third time, taking the first two matchups by identical 3-2 scores, the first in Boston in a Gimmick on November 16^th and then in Washington on December 11^th.

Then and Now…

This will be the 163^rd meeting of these teams in the all-time series.  Washington has a 64-69-8 (21 ties) record against the B’s, 30-38-4 (nine ties) on the road.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 32-12-7 against the Bruins overall, 15-7-3 In Boston.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

David Krejci has spent most, if not all of his 14 season career in the NHL skating in the shadow of fellow Bruins.  But when he takes the ice on Monday against the Capitals, he will play in his 882 career game, all with Boston, passing Rick Middleton for eighth place on all-time Bruins list of games played.  He is likely to pass Terry O’Reilly (891 games) for seventh place shortly after the new year.  He has done by showing up and giving a  consistent effort more than with flash.  He has only four seasons with 20 or more goals (a high of 23 twice), has 50 or more assists in three seasons (a high of 53 last year), and posted more than 70 points twice (73 twice, including last season).  In addition to his high ranking in games played for the B’s, he is a top-20 player on the all-time list of goals scorers (201/19^th), assists (466/eighth), points (667/ninth), plus-minus (plus-129/20^th), power play goals (46/20^th), and game-winning goals (39/11^th).

Through 33 games this season, Kreici is hitting just about all of his career per-game output on the nose.  His goals per game is equal to his career number (0.23 this year/0.23 career), assists are up slightly (0.55/0.53), and his points are up a bit (0.77/0.76). He has been more efficient in his shooting, posting seven goals on 43 shots, that 16.3 shooting percentage several points higher than his career 12.5 mark, and in fact on pace to be the best of his career.  He has been an illustration of the importance of secondary scoring this season, the Bruins going 10-2-3 in the 15 games in which he had points.  Ice time might be an issue though.  The Bruins are winless in the four games Krejci skated more than 20 minutes (0-2-2) and are just 7-7-5 in the 19 games in which he logged more than 17:30 in ice time.  Krejci is 9-14-23, minus-10, in 38 career games against Washington.

Sometime just after the calendar turns over, Zdeno Chara will play in his 1,000^th game as a Boston Bruin, the sixth player in team history to do so.  That is amazing in itself, but what makes it more noteworthy is that he played in 530 games in the NHL before he arrived in Boston in 2006-2007.  The 1,522 NHL games played that he has going into Monday’s game ranks 19^th al-time in the league and sixth all-time among defensemen.  No active defenseman is within 300 games of Chara (Jay Bouwmeester: 1,221).  How much longer he will play in the league, given that he will turn 43 years old in March, is a matter of conjecture, but before this season is over he is likely to be in the top-20 all-time defensemen in goals (he needs three to tie Larry Robinson for 20^th place) and top-five in games played (he needs 42 to tie Nicklas Lidstrom).  He could, if feeling especially ornery, challenge the 2,000 penalty minute mark for his career (he needs 72) and become the eighth defenseman in NHL history to hit that mark.  His career plus-minus rating of plus-280 is more than 100 points clear of his closest pursuer among active defensemen (Duncan Keith: plus-156).

Chara has been in an offensive slump recently, posting one point (an assist) in his last dozen games after a stretch in which he was 4-7-11, plus-15 over 15 games.  He is the minutes eater, though, and for a reason.  Nineteen times this season he skated more than 21 minutes, and the Bruins did not lose any of them in regulation (14-0-5).  Chara is 7-19-26, plus-1, in 74 career games against the Caps.

Chances are, you are not going to hear forward Chris Wagner’s name announced on a scoring play.  In 36 games he has three goals an seven points.  But he will announce his presence on the ice.  Among 17 skaters dressing for at least 25 games for the Bruins so far, Wagner leads the club in credited hits per 60 minutes (12.40).  He also averages more than two blocked shots per 60 minutes, painting a picture of a player who contributes by getting his hands dirty more than using them for highlight goals or fancy set-ups. As much as his physical play having a purpose, hockey being a physical game, it has an effect.  In 17 games this season in which Wagner was credited with at least three hits, the Bruins are 9-2-6 (three of the extra time losses came in the trick shot competition).  In the nine games in which he had one or no hits, Boston is 4-5-0.

1.  No team has earned more standings points on home ice than the Bruins. They have 32 points to 30 for Pittsburgh.

2.  On the other hand, no team has more extra time losses on home ice than Boston.  Their eight extra time losses are almost as many on home ice as the next two teams combined, New Jersey (five) and any one of four teams tied with four (Nashville, Toronto, Philadelphia, and the Caps).

3.  Beware the third period in Boston.  The Bruins have the best goal differential in the third period on home ice in the league (plus-15).

4. Boston can give away points late, though.  No team has more extra time losses on home ice when leading after two periods than the Bruins (three).

5.  The Bruins are the only team in the league that has not lost a game in regulation when trailing after one period on home ice (3-0-2).

1.  If the Caps get a lead early on the road, they generally keep it.  Six teams have perfect records when leading after one period on the road, but the Caps have the most wins among them (8-0-0).

2.  With the best record in the league on the road, it probably surprises no one that the Caps have scored more goals on the road (72) than any other team in the league.

3.  The Caps have twice as many wins when outshooting opponents on the road (10) than any other team (four teams have won five times in those situations).

4.  The Caps have taken 77 minor penalties in road games this season, the tied with Anaheim for third-highest total in the league behind Carolina (83) and Minnesota (78).

5.  Washington has the second best shot attempts differential at 5-on-5 in close game situations (plus-55), trailing only Carolina (plus-108).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Patrice Bergeron

He has never dressed for every game in a regular season, but he has more than 1,000 NHL games played (1,056).  He has never had a 35-goal season, but he is well north of 300 goals for his career (334).  He has never had an 80-point season, but he has more than 800 career points (843).  He is not generally thought of as a big power play producer, but he has exactly 100 career power play goals. 

It is not the offense that Patrice Bergeron brings that sets him apart from most NHLers, at least not just the offense.  It is the complete game, perhaps the most complete set of skills in one player in this era.  Defense?  He is a four-time Selke Trophy winner as top defensive forward and was named a finalist on four other occasions.  If you are counting, he’s been a finalist for that trophy in each of the last eight seasons.  He is a “gentlemanly” player, receiving votes for the Lady Byng Trophy in each of the last 11 seasons.  He is perhaps the best practitioner in the art of faceoffs in this era, his career 57.1 winning percentage tops among all 371 active players who have taken at least 100 draws since Bergeron came into the league in 2003-2004. Among 142 active forwards dressing for at least 100 games, Bergeron ranks tenth in shorthanded ice time per game (2:00), and he is the only player in that group with at least two minutes of shorthanded ice time per game and at least three minutes of power play ice time per game (3:04).  He not only plays in all situations, he flourishes in them. 

Bergeron has been productive in the offensive end this season.  He has 13 goals, 17 assists, and 30 points in 28 games.  His average of 1.07 points per game, if maintained over the entire season, would be his second career season over a point per game (last season he finished with 1.22 points per game in 65 games).  He goes into Monday’s game with points in 15 of his last 18 games (11-11-22), including a four-point game (0-4-4) at home in a 5-4 overtime win against Minnesota on November 23^rd.  Bergeron is 12-26-38, minus-12, in 48 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Carl Hagelin

Carl Hagelin remains the only forward dressing for more than three games for the Caps this season without a goal.  With the seven games with which he finished last season without a goal, the additional 26 games he has come up empty this season means he drags a 33-game streak without a regular season goal into Monday’s contest.  That’s no goals on 49 shots.  Only he and Frans Nielsen among NHL forwards have taken that many or more shots over that span (since last March 24^th) and failed to record a goal.

But players contribute in different ways, and Hagelin has been part of an excellent penalty kill.  In the 26 games in which he has dressed, the Caps penalty kill is 88.5 percent.  In the 11 games he missed to injury, it was only 78.4 percent.  He has been on ice for only four opponents’ power play goals this season while averaging 3:08 in shorthanded ice time per game, tops among forwards and second among all skaters to defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler (3:13).  That lack of offense has not been debilitating for Hagelin.  Another example of that is that the Caps are 5-1-0 in the six games this season in which he did not record a shot on goal.

Still, while Hagelin has not been a prolific goal scorer in his career (his high is 17 with the Rangers in 2014-2015), he has never had fewer than five goals in a season, and that took place last season when he played in only 58 games for three different teams.  Hagelin is 2-3-5, minus-12, in 23 career games against Boston.

In the end…

It is hard to comprehend the hold that the Caps have had over the Bruins over the last five years and change.  Not just overall, where the Caps have a 16-1-0 record over Boston over the last 17 games overall, but in Boston, where the Caps haven’t lost since March 2014 and where they have an eight-game winning streak.  When betting, bet the streak, the saying goes, and those 3-2 scores the Caps posted against the Bruins in the first two games of this season’s series are good enough for us.

Capitals 3 – Bruins 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 12

Week 12 looked a lot like Week 11 for the Washington Capitals. Three games on the schedule, a loss to Columbus, a win over Tampa Bay.  Replace a win over Boston in Week 11 with a win over New Jersey in Week 12, and it was another winning week for the Caps.

Record: 2-1-0

The Caps posted their tenth winning week of the season in Week 12.  Last season, the Caps did not post their tenth winning week until Week 15.  They have yet to experience a losing week, by percentage of standings points earned.  Compare that to last season, when they Caps had two losing weeks among their first dozen of the season.

Washington extended a couple of odd streaks in Week 12.  On the minus side, they lost to Columbus again, and that makes four straight regular season losses to the Blue Jackets (0-3-1).  Of course, the Caps still have that four-game playoff winning streak against Columbus, so there is that.  In beating the New Jersey Devils in the middle game of the week, the Caps extended their winning streak in the regular season to four games over the Devils, and they are 17-1-2 in their last 20 regular season meeting against New Jersey. 

Beating the struggling Devils is one thing, but the win over Tampa Bay to end the week is a horse of a different color.  The 3-1 win over Tampa Bay on Saturday made it four in a row over the Lightning and gave the Caps a 12-2-3 record over the Bolts in their last 17 regular season meetings. 

Offense: 3.00/game (season: 3.54/1st)

Balance was the keyword for the Caps in Week 12 more than volume.  Eight players shared in the nine goals scored, Nicklas Backstrom being the only Capitals with a two-goal week.  The week also featured contributions from the defense, four defensemen posting goals – John Carlson, Jonas Siegenthaler, Dmitry Orlov, and Radko Gudas.  For Orlov, it was his second goal in his last 36 games, since Opening Night.  The odd part of that is that both goals, including this week’s in the last game of the week, came against Tampa Bay, the first two goals he has in his career against the Lightning.  Siegenthaler got his first goal on the road in his career with his tally against New Jersey.  For Gudas, his goal against the Lightning was his first as a Capital.

Backstrom also led the team in points for the week (four), one of 14 skaters to record points in Week 12.  Even an interruption in his appearances due to injury has not slowed Backstrom down.  With the four points in three games this week, he is 4-8-12, plus-1, in his last nine games dating back to November 15^th.

It would surprise no one that Alex Ovechkin led the team in shots on goal. He did (18), but it was the runners-up that surprised.  Lars Eller, Jakub Vrana, and Michal Kempny tied for second-most with eight shots on goal apiece.

The blemish on the week was being shut out by Columbus in the first game of the week.  It was the first time this season that the Caps were shut out and the first time that the Caps were blanked on the road since dropping an identical 3-0 decision to the Blue Jackets in Columbus last February.

Defense: 2.33/game (season: 2.76/8th)

Shot suppression was the feature of Week 12 for the Caps.  They allowed a total of 75 shots on goal to the three opponents and allowed none of them more than 27.  The distinctive part of the total was the detail. The Caps opened the week allowing 14 shots to Columbus in the first period and ended it by allowing 14 shots in the third period to Tampa Bay.  That left a total of 47 shots spread over seven periods of hockey the rest of the week.  It was a suffocating effort.

Unsurprisingly, the Caps dominated the shot attempts at 5-on-5. At plus-45 for the week in shot attempt differential, they were fourth-best in the league, and their 59.4 percent in this category was third-best in the league for the week.  Only three teams allowed fewer shot attempts at 5-on-5 than the Caps (96), and all of them – San Jose, Arizona, and the New York Rangers – played only two games this week.

Goaltending: 2.40 / .908 (season: 2.65 / .912)

It was an effective week in goaltending, for the most part.  That first-minute goal in the third period against Columbus to give the Blue Jackets a 2-0 lead, one of two goals Braden Holtby allowed on only five shots in that period, was the low point of the week.  But he rebounded with a solid 26-save performance against Tampa Bay to close the week in what might have been his best performance so far since Thanksgiving.

Ilya Samsonov got the middle game of the week and continued to impress in his rookie campaign.  The 6-3 win might not have been his best effort of the season (only the second time in seven road games he allowed more than two goals), but he won for the seventh time in seven road decisions, the first Capitals rookie goalie to win his first seven road decisions with the club.

Taken overall, one had to like the netminding of the pair over the first 40 minutes of games, where they combined to stop 43 of 46 shots (.935 save percentage).  The third periods could have been better, the pair stopping 26 of 30 shots (.867).

Power Play: 0-for-8/0.0 percent (season: 21.8 percent/11th)

One of these was bound to sneak in sooner or later.  It just was not a good week for the power play.  No goals on eight chances were most chances in a week without a power play goal since the Caps went 0-for-12 in Week 12 last season.  It was the first time in 12 weeks this season that the Caps failed to record a power play goal.  They were getting shots from the right people, well, Alex Ovechkin (seven shots), but not enough of them – 12 shots on goal in 15:48 in ice time.  The week extends a more lengthy dry spell for the power play unit, which is now just 2-for-23 (8.7 percent) over the last nine games spanning three weeks.

Penalty Killing: 11-for-12/91.7 percent (season: 85.7 percent/2nd)

If the power play has lacked power of late, the penalty kill has been lethal.  That the 91.7 percent penalty kill in Week 12 was the worst in the last three weeks says something.  Most impressive was holding what was the league’s second-best power play of the Tampa Bay Lightning to no goals in seven man advantages, including 1:26 of a 5-on-3 advantage.  Overall, the Caps held the three opponents to just 15 shots on goal in 20:41 of shorthanded ice time.  And, with 11 kills in 12 tries, the Caps are now 31-for-33 over the last three weeks, the best penalty kill in the league in December and the only one at over 90 percent (93.9 percent).

Faceoffs: 88-for-184/47.8 percent (season: 49.5 percent/21st)

It was a uniformly mediocre week in the circle.  The Caps did not win more than 50 percent of their draws in any of the three games (they split 54 faceoffs down the middle with New Jersey), and they were under 50 percent in all three zones, albeit only one faceoff loss under 50 percent in both the offensive and defensive ends.

Nicklas Backstrom held up his end – both ends, actually – in the faceoff circle, leading the team with 59 draws taken and finishing 50 percent or better in all three zones, 52.5 percent overall.  At the other end of Caps taking at least ten draws was Evgeny Kuznetsov, who finished 17-for-42 (40.5 percent), but he was over 50 percent in the defensive end in limited chances (4-for-7).

Goals by Period:

The fireworks were largely contained to the third periods of games for the Caps in Week 12, nine of the 16 goals scored overall being registered in the third period, five by the Caps and four for opponents.  The Caps have slowly become a dominating team late in games.  They finished Week 12 as one of only two teams with 50 or more third period goals, their 50 goals trailing only the Nashville Predators (51).

The Caps have been an odd sort of team of late in this category.  On the defensive side, the only teams to allow fewer goals over the first 40 minutes of games than the Caps (13) since Thanksgiving are Toronto (11), and Carolina (12).  On the offensive end, though, no team has scored more goals in the third periods and overtimes of games (20).

Year-over-Year:

The Caps have settled into a profile that resembles last year’s at a similar point in the schedule.  There are important differences, though.  There are of course, the wins (two more than last year through 37 games) and losses (four fewer regulation losses this season).  But underneath that are the shots differential the Caps going from a minus-81 through 37 games last season to a plus-30 this season a net change of plus-111, 3.0 shots per game or one shot on goal per period.  Then there is the penalty kill, which has allowed 11 fewer goals and is more than eight percentage points better in penalty killing efficiency than last season.  Finally, and this might be the most significant change, is the shot attempts allowed at 5-on-5, which have been cut by more than nine percent from this point last year.

In the end…

That the Caps have been as dominant as they have been over as long as they have in regular season games is a temptation to take what they have done, and what they are doing, for granted.  Since 2008-2009, when the Caps had their first 50-win season in the “Rock the Red” era, they have had four 50-win seasons, more than any team in the league in that span.  They have 538 wins in all over that span, more than any in the league.  They are on a pace to continue leading the league in wins over the last dozen season and to post their fifth 50-win season in that period.

It makes a 2-1-0 week seem a bit commonplace, perhaps even disappointing to some Caps fans, especially when the loss came to a struggling team that beat the Caps in consecutive meetings, the Columbus Blue Jackets the only team in 37 games so far to beat the Caps more than once.

But this team has been consistent and entertaining, while piling up wins.  These things should never be taken for granted and should be appreciated as we prepare for the holiday week ahead.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Nicklas Backstrom (2-2-4, even, 52.5 percent faceoff wins, 900^th career point)
• Second Star: Dmitry Orlov (1-2-3, plus-3, 1 GWG, 1 shorthanded point, 22:24 average ice time)
• Third Star: Radko Gudas (1-1-2, even, first goal as a Capital, eight hits, three blocked shots)

Captain rates the week…

Three puppers

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 37: Capitals 3 - Lightning 1

The Washington Capitals returned home from a three-game road trip on Saturday night to host the Tampa Bay Lightning.  It was the third meeting of the teams since November 29^th, the final meeting of the teams in this regular season.  The Caps took a lead, withstood a persistent parade to the penalty box, scored late, and added an insurance empty netter while shorthanded to skate away with the sweep of the season series in a 3-1 win.

First Period

The Capitals were the beneficiaries of an early power play, courtesy of the Lightning playing with too many men on the ice.  The Caps had several good looks and managed one shot on goals (Nicklas Backstrom), but Tampa Bay killed off the penalty.

The Caps returned the favor 8:08 into the period when Alex Ovechkin was sent off for hooking.  The Lightning got shots on goal from Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman, but neither eluded goaltender Braden Holtby, and the game remained scoreless.

Washington enjoyed its second power play of the game late in the period when Mitchell Stephens was whistled for high-sticking.  The Caps did not score on what would become an abbreviated power play when Tom Wilson was sent off for interference to put the teams at 4-on-4 for 12 seconds before Tampa Bay went on a power play.  Tampa Bay failed to convert the time they had with the man advantage, but they would carry some over into the second period after the first ended scoreless.

-- The Caps out-shot Tampa Bay, 13-6, and out-attempted them, 26-16.

-- It was a big hitting period, by contemporary standards, the Caps with a 15-13 edge in that category.

-- T.J. Oshie won all three faceoffs he took.  The rest of the Caps were 4-for-15 (26.7 percent).

Second Period

The Caps killed off the remaining 47 seconds of shorthanded ice time that carried over into the second period, and the teams continued their scoreless trek.

Washington took the lead in the fifth minute of the period when Lars Eller fed Radko Gudas for a one-timer at the top of the offensive zone that hit defenseman Ryan McDonagh in the jersey logo and ricocheted past goalie Curtis McElhinney into the back of the net, the Caps taking the 1-0 lead at the 4:40 mark.

The Caps got a scare with just over 12 minutes left in the period when T.J. Oshie was cutting down the wing toward the Lightning net.  He was hooked from behind by Nikita Kucherov, causing him to lose his balance and fall forward head first into Mikhail Sergachev.  Oshie crumpled to the ice and remained there for some time before skating off under his own power directly to the locker room.  He appeared to have a cut lip, but the bigger concern was whether Oshie, who has a history of concussions, suffered another.

The Caps went shorthanded in the 13^th minute of the period when Garnet Hathaway was charged with a hooking penalty.  The Lightning failed in their third power play of the night, though, and the Caps maintained their one-goal lead.

There would be no more scoring and no more hijinks before the teams went to their respective locker rooms for the second intermission, the Caps still in front, 1-0.

-- Tampa Bay was credited with 31 hits through two periods to 17 for the Caps.

-- Lots of hitting for the Bolts, not much shooting.  The Caps out-shot them, 16-6, in the period (29-12 for the game) and out-attempted them, 27-20 (53-36 for the game).  Tampa Bay had only seven players with shots on goal, and defenseman Victor Hedman had a third of the team’s shots on goal (four).

-- John Carlson led the Caps with 15:27 in ice time through two periods, Richard Panik had the least with 6:00.

Third Period

The Caps had a chance to add some insurance when Jan Rutta was sent to the penalty box on a holding call at the 4:29 mark.  The Caps failed to record a shot on goal in the two-minute advantage, and the score remained 1-0.

The home team paid for failing to convert the power play mid-way through the period.  A pinballing puck between the hash marks found its way to the stick of Nikita Kucherov, and he snapped it over Holtby’s left shoulder into the top corner to make it 1-1 at the 10:00 mark.

Just 35 seconds later, the Caps went short a man, Nick Jensen going off for interference. And then, it got worse.  The Caps went down two men when Lars Eller was nicked for a delay of game/puck over glass call, putting the Caps down two men for 1:26.  The Caps, and in particular Holtby, were up to the challenge, holding off the full power play to keep the game tied.

The Caps were rewarded for their penalty killing prowess at the other end in the 14^th minute when Dmitry Orlov took a pass from Jakub Vrana at the left point and sailed a one-timer that appeared to hit Cedric Paquette’s shin pad and ricochet past McElhinney’s blaocker to make it 2-1 at the 13:57 mark.

Things got interesting, though, when Jonas Siegenthaler was charged with a slashing penalty with just 3:48 left to put the Lightning on their sixth power play of the game.  The Lightning gambled and emptied their net for an extra attacker, but it backfired.  Tom Wilson fed Nic Dowd on the right side, who stopped to let Kucherov slide by, then snapped the puck into the open cage to make it 3-1, 17:37 into the period.

With 69 seconds left, the Caps went shorthanded again, John Carlson going off for sending the puck off the rink from the defensive zone.  The Caps ran out the clock on that shorthanded situation and skated off with a season series sweep of the Lightning, 3-1.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps faced seven shorthanded situations in this game and killed all of them, their high for a perfect penalty kill this season.  But it was not the high in shorthanded situations faced.  They killed seven of eight power plays in a 4-3 overtime win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on October 29^th.

-- Going 7-for-7 on the penalty kill was the most shorthanded situations faced without allowing a goal since New Year’s Eve, 2016, when the Caps killed all nine shorthanded situations they faced in a 6-2 win over the New Jersey Devils.

-- Eight different Caps recorded points, Dmitry Orlov the only one with two.  It was his second multi-point game of the season, the other also against Tampa Bay (1-1-2) on November 29^th.

-- The Caps out-shot the Lightning, 35-27.  The teams finished even in shot attempts with 65 apiece.

-- Every Capital finished the game with at least one shot on goal except Richard Panik and Brendan Leipsic.  Leipsic was the only Caps player without a shot attempt.

-- T.J. Oshie was the only Capital taking more than one faceoff who finishe over 50 percent, winning five of seven draws (71.4 percent).

-- Braden Holtby allowed one goal on 27 shots.  It was the first time he allowed a single goal in his last eight games (a 2-1 Gimmick loss to Vancouver on November 23^rd).  It is the last time he did it in a win in his last 12 games, not since he allowed one in 31 shots in a 2-1 win over Philadelphia on November 13^th. 

-- The Caps finished the game with four power play shots on goal and four shorthanded shots on goal.

-- Twelve of the 18 skaters recorded blocked shots, led by Jonas Siegenthaler and John Carlson with three apiece.

-- Garnet Hathaway led the team with three credited hits.

In the end…

It was not a pretty game for either team, but the Caps seem much more comfortable in such contests than do the Lightning.  It served them well, having to skate the back half of a back-to-back set of games and looking a bit fresher than the Lightning by the end of the contest.  The Caps now have one game left before the holiday, but this was a nice game to continue down the home stretch to the break.

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 36: Capitals 6 - Devils 3

‘Twas the Friday before Christmas, when all through the joint, the Caps visited the Devils, to drive home a point.  And Caps fans were hoping that point would be “we’re better.”  But games are played on the ice, and the league-leading Caps visited the disappointing New Jersey Devils on Friday night in Newark, NJ.  The Devils were dressed out in their best old-school, Christmas-hued finery, the old red and green scheme with white jerseys, but the old colors did not conjure old memories of glory for the home team.  The Caps fell behind early but stormed back and won going away over the struggling Devils, 6-3.

First Period

After some early puck and territory dominance, the Caps took a penalty, and it cost them.  With Jonas Siegenthaler sent off at the 2:50 mark of the first period, the Devils capitalized 70 seconds later when Nico Hischier found Kyle Palmieri at the top of the crease for a tap-in past the left pad of goalie Ilya Samsonov.

The Caps had a chance to tie the game barely two minutes later when Carl Hagelin, held by Sami Vatanen on a scoring chance, was awarded a penalty shot.  In search of his first goal of the season, Hagelin shot the puck high and wide on goalie MacKenzie Blackwood, and it remained a one-goal game.

Another chance came for the Caps less than two minutes after the penalty shot try when Alex Ovechkin was sprung loose for a chance, but his shot was turned aside by Blackwood, who seemed to be the only thing keeping the Caps from turning the score around and into a rout.

New Jersey got their second power play chance of the period at the 15:46 mark when Brendan Leipsic was whistled for delay of game/shooting the puck over the glass.  They failed to convert, and it would cost them in a case of turnabout being fair play.

The Caps tied the game, and then they took the lead in the last 95 seconds of the period.  Nicklas Backstrom took a feed from Tom Wilson at the red line and skated the puck into the offensive zone.  He slid the puck to Alex Ovechkin on his right and, from the top of the right wing circle, he snapped the puck past Blackwood’s blocker to make it 1-1 at the 18:25 mark.  Just 70 seconds later, Wilson outfought Vatanen for a loose puck in the corner to Blackwood’s right.  He fed the puck out to John Carlson, whose shot from the top of the zone was redirected by Backstrom past Blackwood, and the Caps took a 2-1 lead into the first intermission.

-- The Caps had a whopping 28-9 advantage in shot attempts for the period, 11-6 in shots on goal.

-- Backstrom (goal, assist) and Tom Wilson (two assists) made it multi-point games in the first period.

-- The Caps had shot attempts recorded by 16 of the 18 skaters in the period.  Only Brendan Leipsic and Jonas Siegenthaler were blanked.

Second Period

The Devils got the first goal of the period for the second time on the evening when John Carlson was caught up ice, and the Devils broke out on a 2-on-1.  Blake Coleman avoided the back checking of Backstrom to slide the puck under Samsonov just as he and Backstrom were sliding into the net and nudging it off its posts.  The game was tied, 2-2, at the 4:15 mark.

In the 12^th minute the Devils went on their third power play of the evening, the Caps’ Dmitry Orlov going off for a slashing call on Palmieri.

Washington had a chance to take a lead when Evgeny Kuznetsov intercepted a blind pass and had nothing but time and open ice to solve Blackwood.  He tried to go far side but could not elevate the puck enough over Blackwood’s left pad, and the game remained tied.

The Caps got their first power play of the contest late in the period when Vatanen was sent off for slashing.  The Caps had two shots on goal on the man advantage but could not convert.

The teams went 4-on-4 in the final moments of the period, Garnet Hathaway sent to the box for the Caps and Miles Wood sent off for the Devils.  With the additional open ice, the Caps were able to work the puck in deep to Orlov, who slid the puck to Backstrom at the edge of the crease for a tap-in to make it 3-2 with just 29 seconds left in the period.  The teams got mixed up in some unpleasantries at the end of the period, Kunzetsov and Travis Zajac being the primary combatants.  Nothing came of it, and the Caps took a 3-2 lead to the locker room.

-- The Caps had a 21-17 edge in shot attempts for the period and a 12-11 advantage in shots on goal.

-- Lars Eller was the only Capital taking more than one faceoff who was over 50 percent through two periods, going 4-for-5 (80.0 percent).

-- John Carlson led the Caps in time over the first two periods with 16:33 on a team-leading 18 shifts.

Third Period

The Caps scored in the first minute on an usual play.  From the offensive blue line, Backstrom fed the puck to Michal Kempny on the left side.  Kempny skated the puck a couple of strides down the left wing wall and fed his defensive mate John Carlson steaming down the middle alone.  Carlson batted the puck out of mid-air and under Blackwood to make it 4-2, 42 seconds into the period.

The Caps extended their lead to 5-2 in the seventh minute when Jonas Siegenthaler stepped up from the left point and wristed the puck through a maze of players and into the top corner on the far side over Blackwood’s glove.  That goal ended Blackwood’s night in favor of Gilles Senn, who made his NHL debut.

Richard Panik closed the scoring for the Caps, taking a centering feed from Lars Eller and redirecting it through Senn to make it 6-2 at the 15:33 mark.

Wood put some window dressing on the outcome with a goal in the last minute for the Devils, but it was far too little, far too late, and the Caps skated off with the 6-3 win.

Other stuff…

-- Carl Hagelin’s penalty shot attempt was the Caps’ second of the season.  Jakub Vrana had one against the New York Rangers’ Henrik Lundqvist in a 5-2 win in October.  His was unsuccessful, too.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had two goals and two assists, his first four-point game of the season and the 23^rd of his career, second on the franchise list to Alex Ovechkin (28).

-- Richard Panik’s goal was his 78^th career goal, and he crossed another team off the list of those against which he had not scored a goal.  With the Devils off the list, he now lacks career goals only against Los Angeles and Winnipeg.

-- This was the second time this season that the Caps scored six goals in a game and first on the road.  The Caps beat Buffalo, 6-1, on November 1^st in Washington.  The Caps also have a 6-5 win in Vancouver over the Canucks, but that was a Gimmick win.

-- Ilya Samsonov won his seventh game in seven tries on the road this season, tying Braden Holtby, Philipp Grubauer, and Jim Carey for fifth-most road wins by a rookie Caps goalie in team history.  He is the first rookie goalie in Caps history to win his first seven decisions on the road.

-- Washington got points from 12 skaters, four of them with multi-point games: Nicklas Backstrom (2-2-4), Alex Ovechkin (1-1-2), John Carlson (1-1-2), and Tom Wilson (0-2-2).

-- Brendan Leipsic was the only Capital without a shot attempt.

-- Dmitry Orlov led the team in ice time (21:31); John Carlson skated the most shifts (25).

-- The Caps finished with a 29-27 edge in shots and a 59-40 advantage in shot attempts.

-- Ovechikin’s goal was his first against MacKenzie Blackwood, the 139^th goalie he has scored against in his career.  That is almost half of all the goalies who have dressed for at least one game since Ovechkin entered the league (291, including Gilles Senn, who debuted in this game).

In the end…

The Caps are having a great start, especially on the road (now 16-3-1, best road record in the league); the Devils are struggling, especially at home (5-8-5, second-worst in the league).  In that context, file this game under “taking care of business.”  And, it was a reminder of how many memories and superb performances Caps fans have seen from Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin, individually and together, over the years.  Not a bad way to get the holidays off and running.

If We Had Our Own Goal Song

On Twitter earlier today, The Voice of the Capitals, John Walton, asked his followers…

There were a lot of good responses, but for us it took about ten seconds to settle on one for ours.  The tune is “Bite Your Lip (Get Up and Dance!)” by Elton John, and even though they are not nearly as good as the original, we thought of some Caps-specific lyrics to go along with it...

We came down to the city limits

Bringin’ all our Capital spirit

Bite your lip, get up, get up and dance!

Don't let me down

Please stick around

Bite your lip, get up, get up and dance!

Red light spinnin’ round and round,

Fans scremin’, it’s a wall of sound.

Let’s go! Go Caps!!

Move that muscle and shake that fat.

Bite your lip, get up, get up and dance!

From the city…to the Bay

Every place, every way

Bite your lip, get up, get up and dance!

Chevy Chase, Northern V-A,

Do do do do do do do what I say

Bite your lip, get up, get up and dance!

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 37: Lightning at Capitals, December 21st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return home on Saturday night to host the Tampa Bay Lightning in a rematch of the clubs who met last Saturday night in Tampa, where the Caps skated to a 5-2 win.  The Caps continue to set the pace in the league standings and going into their game in New Jersey against the Devils on Friday night were 8-2-0 in their last ten games, 21-4-3 in their last 28 games since opening the season with a 3-2-2 start.  The Lightning have been stumbling of late, going 5-5-2 in their last dozen games and find themselves on the outside looking in at playoff contention, although they trail third place Buffalo in the Atlantic Division by only one point with three games in hand going into Friday's games.

Then and Now…

Saturday will mark the 131^st meeting of these teams in the all-time regular season series.  The Caps re 81-33-10 (six ties) overall and 44-12-5 (four ties) on home ice.  Since 2005-2006, Washington is 45-17-10 against the Lightning overall and 26-5-5 on home ice.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

When Nikita Kucherov finished last season with 128 points and the Art Ross Trophy, it was the highest point total for an NHL player since Mario Lemieux posted 161 points in 1995-1996 (for good measure, teammate Jaromir Jagr added 149 points that season).  That Kucherov also won the Hart (most valuable player) and Lindsay (outstanding player) Trophies, as well has being named as a first team NHL All Star, was no surprise.  But it was something else, too.  It was the sixth season in an uninterrupted improvement in scoring for Kucherov.  Starting with 18 points in his first season in 2013-2014, he progressed to 65, then 66, then 85, and then 100 points in 2017-2018 before his explosion last season.

But here is the thing about Ross Trophy winners.  They’re in the lineup to put up those points.  Since 2005-2006, the 14 Ross Trophy winners played every game in ten of those seasons, including the 48 games of the abbreviated 2012-2013 season when Martin St. Louis won his Ross Trophy (60 points).  No Ross Trophy winner over those 14 seasons missed more than seven games (Evgeni Malkin in 2011-2012; 109 points in 75 games).  Kucherov has missed only one game so far this season, but his season after is different from others in another important respect.  With 36 points in 33 games, his 1.09 points per game is only 70 percent of his points per game last year (1.56).  That yield compared to the Ross-winning season is the second lowest in the last 14 seasons (St. Louis posted 0.85 points per game in the season following his Ross win, 68 percent of what he posted in his Ross Trophy season the year before).  That is no doubt a function of just how dominant Kucherov was last season in an historical context, but his fall off has also been accompanied by a falloff in the Lightning’s overall performance.  Kucherov is 11-11-22, plus-3, in 19 career games against the Capitals.

If Ondrej Palat ever lasts an entire season, he might be quite a producer.  As it is, he has been a reliable mid-teens, 45-50 point player in his six full NHL seasons preceding this one.  However, the important word in that previous sentence is “full.”  Those seasons have not been so full for the most part.  He dressed for 81 games in his first full season, going 23-36-59, perhaps a harbinger of things to come.  But in the next five seasons he missed a total of 78 games to a variety of upper and lower body injuries.  Even with the injuries and the absences, Palat is one of seven players in Lightning history to post at least 30 points in six of his first seven seasons, which matches that of his more renowned teammate Kucherov.

Palat would seem to be a good bet to make it seven times in eight seasons this year, having posted 18 points in 33 games to date.  It is the 33 games, though, that is the key number here, Palat having dressed for every game on the schedule to date.  It is just a bit hard at the moment to know in what direction Palat is going, hot or cold.  In his most recent 11 games going into Thursday night’s game against Dallas, he had one point, that being a goal on a total of 32 shots on goal.  Against Dallas, though, he had a goal and an assist in the Lightning’s 4-3 overtime loss to the Stars.  It was only the second time this season in nine games in which Palat scored a goal that Tampa Bay lost (7-1-1).  One indicator of success regarding Palat might be his ice time.  In 18 games in which he skated less than 17:30, the Lightning are 11-5-2, while in the 15 games he skated more than 17:30 they are 6-7-2.  Palat is 3-5-8, even, in 14 career games against the Caps.

Andrei Vasilevskiy might need a break in goal.  He faced only 20 shots on Thursday night against Dallas, but he allowed four goals in the overtime loss.  That makes for a three-game slide, starting with the Lightning’s 5-2 loss to the Caps last weekend, over which he stopped only 70 of 81 shots, a .864 save percentage.  He is on his longest streak of games under .900 in save percentage this season (three).  If he is given a break, the goaltending duties will fall to Curtis McElhinney, who has had eight starts for the Lightning this season (3-3-2, 3.62, .898). 

Playing in his first year in Tampa, McElhinney is playing for his eighth NHL team.  At none of those eight stops over a 12-year career did he appear in more than 35 games, except for Columbus (85 games).  And, his career totals might be considered the epitome of the “Everyman” goalie: 85-85-17, 2.85, .909, with ten shutouts.  Good enough to be a backup with some level of interest among NHL teams, never enough to be a number one (he has never appeared in more than 33 games in a season).  This season, despite the occasional start, he has been streaky, losing his first three appearances (0-1-2), winning his next three (3-0-0), and going into the weekend a loser in his last two appearances (0-2-0).  McElhinney is 1-3-0, 3.92, .872 in six career appearances against the Caps.

1.  Last season, Tampa had two instances all year in which they lost consecutive games (Games 17 and 18, the only one in which both losses were in regulation, and Games 53 and 54, both in extra time).  They have already had four instances of consecutive losses this season with a season high three-game losing streak in Games 22-24 (0-2-1).

2.  The Lightning have the best “net power play (conversions less shorthanded goals allowed)” in the league at 26.2 percent.

3.  Getting off to hot starts is difficult against the Lightning.  Only two teams have allowed fewer first period goals than Tampa Bay (24): Dallas (22) and Pittsburgh (20).  On the other hand, Tampa Bay has allowed almost twice as many third period goals (44) as first period goals.

4.  Shot volumes seem not to matter to the Lightning.  They have eight wins in 17 games when outshooting opponents, eight wins in 15 games when out-shot by opponents.

5.  Blocking shots is not Tampa Bay’s thing.  Their 417 blocked shots are third-fewest in the league, ahead of only St. Louis (413) and Buffalo (385).

1.  Last season, four of the Caps’ 26 skaters finished with “minus” ratings.  So far this season, that number is six of 24 skaters.

2.  Evgeny Kuznetsov has averaged exactly one point per game over his last three seasons (187 points in 187 games).

3.  The Caps leading after one period is a better indicator of success (12-0-2/.857 winning percentage), than leading after two periods (16-1-3/.800).

4.  The Caps and San Jose are the only teams in the league in the top five in minor penalties taken and major penalties taken.  Washington is fifth in minors (132) and tied for fifth in majors (nine).

5.  Getting power plays is one thing, converting them another.  The Caps have been blanked on the power play on home ice eight times this season and have a record of 2-2-4 in those games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Steven Stamkos

He is the all-time franchise leader in goals (406) and power play goals (152), and he ranks third in team history in assists (390) and points (796).  However, while he also ranks third on the all-time franchise list in games played (776), one has the haunting feeling that the numbers could be significantly higher for Steven Stamkos.  He missed only three games in his first five seasons, all of them in his rookie season.  But starting with the 2013-2014 season, when he lost 45 games to a broken leg, Stamkos has missed 122 games.  It has mattered in terms of production.  He recorded 45 or more goals in three of his first four seasons and had 29 in 48 games in his fifth season, the abbreviated 2012-2013 season, a 50-goal pace.  But starting with that 2013-2014 season he hit the 45 goal mark only once in six seasons, that being last year, when he dressed for all 82 games for the first time since 2014-2015 (he had 43 goals that season).

Stamkos has missed three games so far this season to a lower body injury, but with 13 goals in 30 games he is still on pace for a 30-plus goal season.  His goal scoring, not unusual for a goal scorer, has been somewhat streaky. He had four in five games early in the season before going through a one goal in nine game dry spell.  He followed that up with goals in consecutive games, and then went another six without one.  He had six goals in a four-game goal streak earlier this month, but he goes into Saturday’s game without one in his last three games.  One thing about Stamkos is that he remains a lethal power play scorer.  Among active players with at least 300 career goals, only Alex Ovechkin has scored a higher percentage of his total on power plays (37.6 percent) than Stamkos (37.4 percent).  He is 16-17-33, minus-19, in 43 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Richard Panik

For Capitals forward Richard Panik, the NHL journey started with the Tampa Bay Lightning.  Drafted in the second round of the 2009 Entry Draft (52^nd overall, three spots ahead of Caps second rounder Dmitry Orlov), Panik played parts of two seasons with the Lightning, dressing for 75 games in 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 (deep, deep trivia…his first NHL shot on goal was against the Caps in his second NHL game in February 2013, and his first NHL multi-goal game was against the Caps in April 2013).  He moved on to Toronto, then to Chicago, and then to Arizona before settling with the Caps as an unrestricted free agent last July.

In his career spanning five teams, eight seasons, and 435 games through Friday night, he has been something of an odd, if consistent sort of player.  One might look at a player with 77 career goals and think his output was limited with respect to how many teams he victimized on his way to that total.  Not so with Panik.  He has spread those 77 goals among 28 of the league’s 31 teams.  Only Los Angeles, New Jersey (pending Friday’s result against the Devils), and Winnipeg have escaped his goal scoring touch.  He would like to improve on his shooting efficiency.  In 25 games to date, his two goals on 32 shots is the lowest shooting percentage of his career (6.3) since his second and final season in Tampa Bay in 2013-2015 (5.4 percent).  Panik is 4-4-8, plus-5, in 11 career games against his former team.

In the end…

These are not last year’s Lightning.  They remain a formidable offensive squad, but they allow far too many goals to be considered on the short list of elite teams this season.  Nevertheless, they are deep in skill, and that is always dangerous.  The Caps have had the Lightning’s number when playing in DC, though, sporting a record of 23-3-3 in the last 29 games played between the teams in Washington dating back to March 2007, outscoring the Lightning by a 116-76 margin. Do we hear “24” wins?

Capitals 4 – Lightning 3