The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 47: Hurricanes at Capitals, January 13th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Didn’t we just do this?  Well, yes.  For the third time since December 28^th, the Washington Capitals will skate against the Carolina Hurricanes.  It will be the first time in those three meetings and the first since October 5^th that the Caps played host to Carolina, the Caps losing to the ‘Canes, 3-2, in overtime.  Washington will be looking to build off their last meeting, a 4-3 win in Carolina, to earn a season split in what will be the last meeting of the teams this season, unless they should meet for a second consecutive year in the playoffs.

Then and Now…

This will be the 178^th meeting of these two teams in the all-time series.  The Caps will be looking for their 100^th win over the Hurricanes in both their Hartford Whaler and Carolina Hurricane incarnations, the Caps currently with a 99-55-9 (14 ties) record overall and 53-26-5 (four ties) at home.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 46-27-8 against Carolina, 24-12-5 on home ice.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

Carolina has not exactly lit up the scoreboard since the start of the new year.  They have a total of 14 goals in five games, a total shared by 11 players.  Three skaters have two goals so far in 2020.  Teuvo Teravainen is not a surprise as one of them, and Warren Foegele is just a bit more surprising.  The third skater with a pair of goals might not get a lot of attention, though.  Lucas Wallmark has two goals since the calendar turned over, and he already has equaled his career best of ten goals set last season.  He was taken in the same 2014 Entry Draft as Foegle, although he was selected in the fourth round (97^th overall), while Foegele was taken by the Hurricanes in the third round (67^th overall).  It was part of a very productive 2014 draft for Carolina, who also took defenseman Haydn Fleury, seventh overall, in the first round.  Those three players have dressed for a combined total of 380 games to date, Wallmark leading them with 145 career games played so far.

Wallmark’s 2020 production so far extends a span of games in which he has picked up his goal-scoring pace.  In his first 33 games this season he had just four goals, but he has six in his last 12 games.  He has been very efficient in doing it, too, posting those six goals on just 23 shots, a 26.1 shooting percentage.  His goal-scoring has not be especially influential on results, the Hurricanes just 6-4-0 in the ten games in which he scored a goal.  Odder still is the lack of team success with his increased offensive engagement.  In 18 games in which he recorded two or more shots on goal, Carolina is 7-9-2.  Wallmark is 1-0-1, minus-6, in nine career games against Washington.

Three rookies through Saturday’s games had at least ten goals and at least 25 points.  Raise your hand if you names Martin Necas among them (Buffalo’s Victor Olofsson and Chicago’s Dominik Kubalik are the others).  Necas was taken with the 12^th overall pick by the Hurricanes in the 2017 Entry Draft and has slightly outperformed his draft slot to date, ranking eighth in goals scored (11) and ninth in points (27).  This year is more of “the third time is the charm” for Necas, who played in one game for Carolina in 2017-2018 and seven games last season, but still qualifies as a “rookie” under the league’s qualification thresholds for games played and age. 

Necas has been hot of late, going 4-5-9, plus-3, in his last ten games, an output that includes a four-point game (2-2-4) in an 8-6 loss to Toronto on December 23^rd.  His has been the value of supplemental scoring for the Hurricanes so far, that two-goal game against the Maple Leafs being the only time Carolina lost so far when Necas scored a goal (8-1-0).  They are 13-7-1 in the 21 games in which he has a point.  In three career games against the Caps, Necas is 1-1-2, even.

He is not likely to get the start on Monday, but a few words about goalie James Reimer.  On Saturday he became the fifth goalie in team history to pitch a shutout when facing 40 or more shots (Cam Ward was the only one of the five to do it more than once – four times).  He stopped all 41 shots he faced in Carolina’s 2-0 win over the Los Angeles Kings.  He has been effective in an associate role (“backup” does not seem to completely convey his role), especially of late.  In his first seven appearances for the Hurricanes this season he stopped just 182 of 202 shots (a .901 save percentage) while posting a 2-4-0 (one no-decision) record.  In his last 11 appearances, though, he stopped 292 of 315 shots (.927 save percentage) and posted a record of 8-2-0 (one no-decision).  He has been more or less the designated road goalie for the club, 14 of his 18 appearances to date coming in road games.  In 12 career games against Washington, Reimer is 5-4-2 (one no-decision), 2.37, .930, with one shutout.

1.  Carolina has the best net penalty kill (accounting for shorthanded goals scored) on the road this season: 89.4 percent.

2.  Among Eastern Conference teams, only Toronto has scored more first period goals on the road this season (30) than Carolina (23, tied with Boston and Tampa Bay).

3.  The Hurricanes have only one road win this season when trailing after the first period (1-6-0).  They also have only one win when trailing after two periods on the road (1-5-0).

4.  Carolina’s winning percentage when scoring first in road games (.900/9-1-0) is second only to Washington (.917/11-1-0).

5. The Hurricanes have an odd shots fact.  In eight road games in which they allowed fewer than 30 shots on goal, their record is just 2-5-1.

1.  It is difficult to keep the Caps from at least getting shots to the net at home.  In 22 home games they have been held under 30 shots only four times.  The Caps are 3-1-0 in those games.

2.  An indicator this game could be a success for the Caps?  Goals allowed in the first period.  In nine games in which the Caps blanked an opponent on home ice in the first period, they are 6-1-2.

3.  Only four teams have allowed fewer third period goals on home ice than the Caps (18): Pittsburgh (16), Carolina (15), St. Louis (11), and Columbus (11).

4.  The Caps have six goals scored at 6-on-5 on home ice this season but only three goals scored at 5-on-6.

5.  Washington takes a lot of penalties on home ice, their 3.93 penalties taken per 60 minutes ranking fourth in the league.  But they draw a lot, too, the 3.84 penalties drawn per 60 minutes on home ice leaving them with a net of minus-0.09 penalties per 60 minutes at home.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Justin Williams

Well, he’s back.  But will Justin Williams dress for the first time this season when the Hurricanes visit Washington?  Hard to say.  Williams re-signed with the Hurricanes last week, a one-year deal over the rest of the season that carries a base salary of $700,000 aand the potential to earn another $1.3 million in bonuses.  But if it seems Williams has been a Hurricane forever, it just seems that way.  One might think he ranks higher on the franchise all-time lists than he does.  For instance, with 429 games played as a Hurricane, Williams ranks 27^th (that’s five fewer than former Caps player and assistant coach Dean Evason, who played in 434 games for Carolina).  His 120 goals rank 14^th on the franchise list, while his 305 points rank 16^th.  He has 36 career power play goals for the club, which ranks 16^th, while his 19 game-winning goals is tied for 12^th.

Williams, who is returning to the ice after taking a break to start the season, will be counted on to add some middle-six punch to the forward lines and some veteran influence on a lineup that includes nine skaters who have dressed this season of age 25 or younger.  As it is, Williams will be the oldest member of the team by seven years over Jordan Staal, next in line among active Hurricanes, among skaters.  Williams is 15-25-40, plus-9, in 51 career games against Washington.

Washington: Dmitry Orlov

John Carlson started the season on fire in the offensive end for the Caps, and he has barely cooled.  But since Thanksgiving, Dmitry Orlov has had his contributions as well.  Orlov is tied for second in goals among Caps defensemen (two, with Radko Gudas) since Thanksgiving, both of them being game-winners.  His 13 points over that stretch trail only Carlson, and his plus-10 is tops on the team in that span.  He has done it averaging more than 22 minutes per game, second only to Carlson’s 24:16, and no defenseman has logged as many even strength minutes as Orlov in that period (390).

The Caps have been beneficiaries of Orlov’s production this season, going 14-5-0 when he recorded at least one point, and they are 14-5-3 in the 22 games in which he logged 22:30 or more in ice time. Only once in his last 20 games since Thanksgiving has he gone consecutive games without a point, and only three times did he skate less than 20 minutes.  Orlov is 4-7-11, plus-11 (that plus-minus rating tied for best against any single opponent with Ottawa) in 26 career games against Carolina.

In the end…

We are past the Caps being able to intimidate the Hurricanes, who can counter the Caps depth of skill with speed and dedication to heavy forechecking pressure.  The Caps have not been able to find a consistent way to counter this resistance, and they might have to find a way to do just that if the Caps are not only to win this game but find a way past Carolina in the postseason, should they meet.  It means the stars have to step up and not just generate chances, but convert them when they have the opportunity.  There are no mysteries here, but the veteran edge still goes to Washington.

Capitals 4 – Hurricanes 3

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 15

It would not be a stretch to say that Week 15 for the Washington Capitals was their worst week of the season.  No, it was not a losing week, but not for lack of effort.  They rallied from two goals down in the last minute of their first game of the week to tie the San Jose Sharks before winning in overtime, beat up on a weak Ottawa Senators team, and then lost to a pair of division rivals as a result of weak efforts and anemic offense.  The mid-winter grind appears to have struck the Caps.

Record: 2-2-0

It has been said that it is not how you start, but how you finish.  The Caps started the week well enough with a pair of wins, but they did it against teams that finished the week in the bottom third in the league in standings points, San Jose with 46 points (24^th) and Ottawa with 39 (29^th).  The two losses to end the week, to Philadelphia and New Jersey, extended a poor record of late against Metropolitan Division opponents. 

Those losses brought the Caps’ record to 3-7-0 against division rivals over their last ten contests, 1-3-0 on home ice, the lone win coming in overtime on December 27^th against Columbus.  The Caps have not beaten a Metropolitan Division rival on home ice in regulation since they beat the New York Rangers, 5-2, on October 18^th.  The Caps closed the week out of the top spot in the league standings for the first time since December 3^rd, when they were second to the Boston Bruins by tiebreakers (even in standings points with Boston, but with the Bruins having a better points percentage).  The Caps ended the week with the same number of points (65) and same points percentage (.707) as Boston and St. Louis, but both the Bruins and the Blues have more wins in regulation, the next tiebreaker.

Offense: 3.50/game (season: 3.50/5th)

In some respects, the Caps were the Caps that fans have seen all season on offense, while in other respects there were gaps in Week 15.  There were Jakub Vrana and T.J. Oshie, two vital elements of the Caps’ attack, posting four and three goals, respectively for the week, accounting for half of the Caps’ total.  Lars Eller, who has been quite productive of late in a variety of ways, scoring a pair of goals, and Alex Ovechkin getting a pair of goals of his own to tie Teemu Selanne for 11^th place on the all-time NHL goal scoring list (684 goals apiece).  Nicklas Backstrom, Radko Gudas, and Nic Dowd rounded out the goal scorers. 

Missing, however, were Tom Wilson and Evgeny Kuznetsov among the forwards.  Wilson has been in a dry spell of late, his current streak of games without a goal up to five.   He has one goal in his last 11 games and two in his last 15.  Kuznetsov has been more streaky.  He is without a goal in four games after posting four in three games.  Before that he had one goal in 12 games.

There was balance in the points, though.  Of the 18 skaters to dress in Week 15, 16 of them had points, and the distribution was what was noticeable.  Vrana led the team with five points, but three players had four (Oshie, Backstrom, and John Carlson), while another four players had three points (Eller, Wilson, Kuznetsov, and Michal Kempny).  Garnet Hathaway and Nick Jensen were the only players to be blanked on the score sheet for the week.  For Jensen, the drought is severe.  He is now up to 38 consecutive games without a point.  Hathaway’s dry spell is not as severe, but he is up to six games without a point.

Defense: 3.25/game (season: 2.96/12th)

The Caps held all four opponents in Week 15 to fewer than 30 shots, extending an impressive amount of stinginess when it comes to allowing shots.  Washington has allowed fewer than 30 shots in 12 of their last 13 games through Week 15, the only club to top that threshold being the Carolina Hurricanes, who logged 41 shots on goal in a 4-3 loss to the Caps on January 3^rd. Since Thanksgiving, no team in the league has been stingier than the Caps in allowing shots, their 27.4 shots allowed per game being fewest in the league over that span.

Washington was not quite as impressive on the defensive side of 5-on-5 shot attempts, but were decent nonetheless.  They allowed 176 shot attempts at fives, fifth fewest among the ten teams to play in four games this week.  It is part of an extended good run in this area for the Caps, whose 815 shot attempts at fives overall are the third-fewest in the league since Thanksgiving.  It has helped contribute to a plus-110 shot attempt differential over that period, the sixth-best differential in the league.

Goaltending: 2.75 / .893 (season: 2.76 / .906)

There is a fair amount to unpack in this category in Week 15.  First, there is the continued fine play on the part of Ilya Samsonov, who stopped 26 of 27 shots in his lone appearance for the week, beating Ottawa, 6-1.  It brought his record over his last eight appearances to 7-0-0 (one no-decision), 1.83, .932.  He finished the week second in the league among rookie goaltenders in wins with 12 (New Jersey’s MacKenzie Blackwood has (14), second in goals against average with 2.24 (Florida’s Chris Driedger has a 2.16 GAA), and fifth in save percentage (.921).

Then there was Braden Holtby, who had a real “donut” of a week.  He stopped 31 of 34 first period shots in three games for a respectable .912 save percentage.  He was perfect in his three third periods, stopping all 17 shots he faced.  But oh, those second periods.  He allowed at least one goal in each of the three second periods he played and stopped only 16 of 23 shots (.696 save percentage).  Not every goal is the goalie’s fault, but, like pitchers in baseball with earned run average, it is his goals against average and save percentage that gets the record, and he is the one who records the wins and the losses.  Whether it is his play, the play of the team in front of him, or a combination of the two, Holtby is in a dark place at the moment.  In his last ten appearances, he is 3-7-0, 3.59, .870, and he has allowed a shorthanded goal in two straight games and three of his last five contests.  Since Thanksgiving, 40 goalies have logged at least 500 minutes.  Of that group, Holtby ranks 34^th in goals against average (3.27) and dead last in save percentage (.882).

Power Play: 1-for-12/8.3 percent (season: 21.0 percent/12th)

Week 15 was another in a continuing series of struggling weeks for the Caps, ending the week 8-for-56 in their last six weeks covering 18 games.  Worse, in Week 15 the Caps had a net power play of -8.3 percent, their one power play goal offset by two shorthanded goals allowed.  They were the only team in the league to allow two shorthanded goals this week and the only team to finish in negative territory in net power play.  The Caps changed things up a bit by spreading the power play time out as the week wore on.  When the week ended, seven forwards averaged more than two minutes per game in power play ice time, Jakub Vrana (2:19 per game) and Lars Eller (2:16) being somewhat new to this level of participation.

It was a lackluster power play at the next level as well.  The Caps managed only 14 shots on goal in 21:28 of power play ice time, Alex Ovechkin accounting for five of them, Jakub Vrana for another three (and the only goal).  Put it all together, and that 8-for-56 power play (14.3 percent) is the second-worst power play in the league (Columbus: 12.5 percent).

Penalty Killing: 6-for-8/75.0 percent (season: 83.8 percent/4th)

The Caps matched their penalty killing performance in Week 14 with a 6-for-8 week.  In the glass-half-full category, the Caps had only those eight shorthanded situations to face in four games.  On the other hand, the four teams they faced in Week 15 were among the worst power play teams in the league, ranking 19^th (Philadelphia), 25^th (San Jose), 30^th (New Jersey), and 31^st (Ottawa) at week’s end.

But back to the first hand, the good part.  The Caps did allow San Jose two power play goals on their first two chances in the first game of the week, but here is the really good part.  The Caps not only shutout opponents on the power play the rest of the week (6-for-6), but they shut them out on shots.  San Jose did not record one on either of their last two power play chances in the opening game of the week, and the Caps ran the table in the other three games, denying any of the three opponents so much as a single shot on goal in eight shorthanded minutes of play.  If there was one thing in this week to build on, the penalty kill to finish the week might have been it.

Faceoffs: 99-for-228/43.4 percent (season: 48.9 percent/22nd)

The Caps just are not a very good faceoff team.  They are inconsistent at best.  In four games this week they were over 50 percent only against San Jose (31-for-58/53.4 percent) and under 45 percent in the other three games.  They lost all three zones for the week, topping 45 percent only in the offensive end (40-for-88/45.5 percent).  Since Thanksgiving, the Caps have the fifth-worst faceoff performance in the league (47.2 percent) and second-worst in the new year (42.3 percent).  Faceoff woes might be contributing to poor power play performance.  Their 34.8 percent wins on power plays in the first five games of the new year is worst in the league, and that’s too much time chasing down pucks when they could be setting up their attack.

Individually, Nicklas Backstrom (32-for-60/53.3 percent) and Lars Eller (22-for-41/53.7 percent) were the only Caps taking at least ten draws to finish over 50 percent for the week.  No Capital, regardless of the number of draws taken, finished at 50 percent or better in the defensive zone.

Goals by Period:

Week 15 was a week in which the Caps suffered from poor starts, posting a negative goal differential in both the first and second periods of games.  Their third periods look better for the furious last-minute comeback against San Jose in which they scored a pair of goals, a comeback that qualifies as historic. 

The two first period goals the Caps scored for the week are the first two goals they have recorded in the opening periods of the new year to date, tied with Columbus for fewest in the league.  And even that paltry production has not helped.  The Caps have yet to take a lead into the first intermission through five games in January.  The Caps have not held a lead at the first intermission since they took a 2-1 lead after 20 minutes in their 6-3 win over New Jersey on December 20^th.  They have not taken a lead into the first intermission on home ice since Thanksgiving, a streak that is now at ten home games.

Year-over-Year:

The Caps continue to be better in most respects than last year’s team at a similar point in the schedule, but the differences are narrowing.  The best thing that might be said is that this club is not merely better than last year’s in terms of wins, but it is only the third team in franchise history to post 30 or more wins in their first 46 games.  The 206-2017 club had 31 wins in 46 games, while the 2015-2016 team had 35 wins it its first 46 games.

The flip side of that is that even with the recent mediocre record, this year’s Caps team has the third-fewest losses in regulation through 46 games (11) in team history, the 2016-2017 team having nine and the 2015-2016 team having eight.  The differential statistics – goals for and against, shots for and against, and 5-on-5 shot attempts for and against – continue to favor this year’s team significantly.  One would think, or at least hope, that a club as skilled as this will shake off the doldrums if the underlying numbers such as these continue to point in a positive direction.

In the end…

Overall, it was quite a disappointing week.  The Caps were fortunate, if not outright lucky, to get out of it with a .500 record.  Coming back from two goals down in the last minute of a game is not a formula one can count on, and while the win over Ottawa and the loss to Philadelphia (a superb home team) could be in the category of “expected,” the loss to the Devils to end the week was arguably the Caps worst game – effort-wise and performance-wise – of the season.  The Caps have much work to do…get the power play untracked, have better starts to games, improve their performance on home ice, get Braden Holtby back on his game.  With three division rivals on the schedule in Week 16, their last action before their bye/All-Star Game break, sooner rather than later for those improvements is the prescription.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Jakub Vrana (4-1-5, plus-1, 14 shots on goal, 18 shot attempts, first power play goal of the season, reached 20 goals for second consecutive season)
• Second Star: Radko Gudas (1-1-2, plus-3 (tied for team lead), one game-winning goal, 12 shots on goal (led all defensemen), 12 hits (led all defensemen))
• Third Star: Ilya Samsonov (1-0-0, 1.00, .963)

Captain rates the week…

One pupper

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 46: Devils at Capitals, January 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return home on Saturday night to open a three-game home stand, their longest in almost two months, hosting the New Jersey Devils at Capital One Arena in the first of two meetings between these teams in Washington in less than a week.  The Caps will be looking to extend their home record in 2020 to a perfect 3-0-0, while the Devils will be trying to avoid seeing a losing streak grow to four games.

Then and Now…

Washington and New Jersey will meet for the 216^th time in the regular season on Saturday night.  The Caps have an overall record of 112-75-15 (13 ties) against the Devils overall, 65-29-8 (six ties) on home ice.  Since 2005-2006, the Capitals are 30-16-11 overall and 16-6-7 at home against the Devils.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

The path to stardom is often neither straight, nor smooth, even for top overall draft picks.  That is the lesson being learned by Jack Hughes, the first overall pick in last summer’s draft by the Devils.  He is one of three members of his draft class to dress for NHL games this season and is tied with Kaapo Kakko, the number two overall pick by the New York Rangers, for most points (16).  Kirby Dach (11 points), taken third overall by the Chicago Blackhawks, rounds out the trio from the 2019 draft class to play in the NHL this season.

Hughes started his rookie season slowly, going without a point in his first six game before breaking out with a run of points in six of eight games and going 4-5-9 in that stretch.  However, the end of that streak started another one.  Hughes went the next 18 games without a goal, posting four assists along the way before ending the drought with a goal in Chicago against the Blackhawks on December 23^rd.  It was one of two goals and an assist that Hughes would post in four games before sustaining an upper-body injury against Boston on New Year’s Eve that has kept him out of the lineup since.  Reports are that his injury is not believed to be overly serious, and he will be re-evaluated for Saturday’s game against the Caps.  Hughes’ only appearance against the Caps to date was in the Devils’ 6-3 loss to Washington on December 20^th.  He did not record a point or a shot on goal in 16 minutes of ice time.

At the other end of the draft spectrum was Nikita Gusev, taken by the Tampa Bay Lightning in the seventh round of the 2012 draft, whose rights were traded to the Vegas Golden Knights in June 2017, and who was subsequently traded to the Devils in July 2019 for a 2020 third round draft pick and a 2021 second round draft pick.  Gusev is in his first NHL season, but at age 27 cannot be considered a “rookie” under NHL rules (26 years of age is the age cutoff point).  He spent the last seven seasons in the KHL for three teams (Amur Khabarovsk, Yugra Khanty-Mansiysk, and SKA Saint Petersburg) before coming to North America this season.  He leads all Devils’ “first-year” players in goals (seven), assists (18), and points (25), his 25 points ranking third among all “first-year” players in the NHL.

Gusev started slowly on the road for the Devils, posting just two points (both goals) in his first nine road contests.  Since then, though, he has points in seven of 11 road games and is 1-10-11, plus-1, in those games.  He takes a four-game road points streak into this game (1-5-6).  He had a pair of assists in the loss to the Caps in December in what is his only appearance against Washington to date.

Ken Daneyko and Scott Stevens.  That is the answer to a trivia question, “how many defensemen have played in more games for the Devils than Andy Greene?”  Greene, who has played in 909 games for the club, almost certainly will not catch Daneyko (1,283 games), but he could overtake Stevens for second place (956 games) next season, if he is re-signed to a new contract.  He will be an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season when his current contract, a five-year/$25 million deal, expires. Greene is not what one would consider an “offensive” defenseman, but by sheer longevity he is among the franchise leaders among defensemen in goals (47/fifth), assists (193/fifth), points (240/fifth), power play goals (15/seventh), shorthanded goals (two/tied for fourth), and game-winning goals (11/fourth).  He has done this despite never having reached double digits in goals in any of his 14 seasons with the Devils (he has a high of eight in 2013-2014 and has none in 39 games this season) and topping 30 points only twice in those 14 seasons (37 in 2009-2010 and 32 in 2013-2014).

This season, Greene’s offense has dried up almost completely.  He opened the season without a point in his first five games but then posted four points (all assists) over his next three contests.  Since then, Greene has one point (an assist) in his last 31 games.  Odd Greene Fact… the Devils have not won a game this season in which Greene skated less than 19 minutes (0-9-2).  Greene is 3-6-9, minus-19, in 45 career games against Washington.

1.  The Devils do not lack for effort on the road in terms of getting shots on goal.  Six times in their last 13 road games they posted 35 or more shots and averaged 36.2 shots on goal over those 13 games (most in the league).  On the other hand, they have allowed 35.3 shots per game in that span (fourth most in the league).

2. What the Devils have not done with all that shooting is score goals.  In those last 13 road games, New Jersey scored 36 goals on 470 shots (7.7 percent). 

3.  The Devils have been adept penalty killers on the road lately.  In their last 13 road games, their 88.7 percent penalty kill is second in the league, while their net penalty kill (accounting for shorthanded goals scored) of 94.3 percent also ranks second.

4.  What has cause the Devils problems over those last 13 road games is getting dominated earl y (outscored 20-11 in the first periods of those games) and unable to generate offense late (nine third period goals, fifth fewest in the league over that span).

5.  Another problem area in those 13 road games has been penalties.  Their net penalties (penalties taken to penalties drawn) per 60 minutes of mimus-0.84 is third-worst in the league over that span.

1.  Tuesday’s 6-1 win against Ottawa was the first time this season that the Caps failed to draw a penalty on home ice.  It was the first time it occurred since January 13, 2017, when the Caps failed to draw a penalty in a 6-0 win over the Chicago Blackhawks.

2.  The Caps have had issues getting going early in games on home ice of late.  The two first period goals scored in the 4-3 loss to the New York Islanders on New Year’s Eve are the only two first period goals the Caps have scored in their last eight games on home ice.

3.  Washington has had no such issues late in games on home ice.  In ten of their last 14 home games they scored at least two goals in the third period, 23 goals in all.

4.  The Caps have shut teams down late in home games of late, for the most part.  In their last 17 home games, the Caps allowed a total of ten goals, three of them in a 5-2 loss to Columbus on December 9^th.

5.  Only two teams in the league have scored fewer goals at 5-on-4 on home ice than the Caps (nine): the New York Islanders (eight) and Ottawa Senators (six).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: MacKenzie Blackwood

If you are a hockey fan, you have to echo what the Devils Twitter feed on MSG said… “MacKenzie Blackwood, man. Gotta love this dude.”  

For those of you not aware, Blackwood took a shot from the New York Islanders’ Ryan Pulock right on the chin of his mask with less than a minute left in the second period of Tuesday’s game between the teams.  He lost a few teeth and was bleeding from the mouth, but he strapped his mask back in place, finished the period (making a superb save on an attempted wrap-around shot by Casey Cizikas with a dozen seconds left in the period), and then played the third period in the Devils’ 4-3 overtime loss to the Isles.  It was not bad enough that he was already feeling under the weather going into that game.  He has since spent some time with the dentist, but he was back in the lineup for New Jersey’s 6-3 loss to the New York Rangers on Thursday.

It is part of a rough start to the new year for the rookie netminder.  He won his first decision of the new year, stopping 29 shots in a 2-1 win against the Islanders on Long Island.  However, he is winless in his last three appearances (0-2-1) stopping only 86 of 99 shots (.869 save percentage) in addition to his injury and significant dental repair.  Nevertheless, he leads all rookie goalies in appearances (34), starts (31), and wins (14).  He ranks in the middle of the pack among 19 rookie goalies to dress this season in goals against average (2.97/seventh) and save percentage (.905/tenth).  Blackwood has been something of a road warrior for the Devils.  Not so much as the Caps’ Ilya Samsonov, perhaps, but his 9-5-0, 2.96, .913 record on the road is impressive, given the Devils’ place in the standings.  Blackwood is 0-3-0, 3.94, .867 in three career appearances against the Caps.

Washington: Brendan Leipsic

When Brendan Leipsic recorded an assist on a Nic Dowd goal last Sunday against the San Jose Sharks, he and Dowd became the 13^th and 14 players for the Caps to reach double digits in points this season.  For Leipsic, it might be a bit disappointing that he has ten points in 45 games with the Caps this season when he had 18 points for the Los Angeles Kings in 45 games last season.  Then again, his role has changed.  With the Kings last season, a team in something of a rebuild mode, he averaged more than 14 minutes per game, eighth among forwards dressing for at least half the Kings’ games (and more than Carl Hagelin did in 22 games for the Kings, it might be worth pointing out).  He averaged 1:36 in power play ice time, something he does not do for the Caps (22 seconds per game so far this season). 

Slotted more, and what appears more consistently, in a fourth line role, his numbers are off from last season in a number of other categories on a per-game basis: penalty minutes (0.49 last season/0.13 per game this season), shots on goal (1.24 last season/0.96 this season), blocked shots (0.56 last season/0.29 this season), hits (1.00 last season/0.89 this season), and takeaways (0.27 last season/0/16 this season).  But this could be as much a factor of his ice time as much as performance during those minutes.  Points and ice time have been hard to come by for Leipsic since Thanksgiving.  In 19 games since the holiday he has two assists and is plus-4, averaging just 9:26 per game.  Perhaps surprisingly for a player with as feisty a reputation as he has, Leipsic has only two penalty minutes in those 19 games.  In three career games against New Jersey, he is 1-1-2, even.

In the end…

This is not a game that the Caps should lose.  New Jersey has allowed 15 goals in their last three games while scoring only eight of their own.  They are 2-for-24 on the power play over their last eight road games (8.3 percent) and gave those goals back with a pair of shorthanded goals against to post a net power play of 0.0 percent over those eight games.  Their penalty kill has been good on the road, going 41-for-43 (95.3 percent) in 11 road games, but then they gave up a pair of power plays in Madison Square Garden to the Rangers in their last road contest.

On the other hand, the Caps have been underwhelming at home so far, their points percentage on home ice tied with the Islanders for fifth best in the league (.714).  The Caps have been able to beat up on weak defensive teams on home ice (six goals against Ottawa, five against San Jose, five against Anaheim, all in their last 11 games at home), and the Devils qualify as a team that has defensive issues.  This game might have its moments, but the Caps should extend their home winning streak to three games.

Capitals 4 – Devils 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 45: Capitals at Flyers, January 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals head north on Wednesday night to visit the Philadelphia Flyers in a Metropolitan Matchup featuring teams that will be playing the back half of back-to-back games.  The Caps will head on the road one night after hosting the Ottawa Senators, while the Flyers return home to host the Caps after a visit to Carolina to face the Hurricanes.

Then and Now…

The Capitals and Flyers will meet for the 221^st time in their regular season series.  Washington has an 87-103-11 (19 ties) record against the Flyers, 38-62-7 (six ties) in Philadelphia.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 30-16-11 against the Flyers, 14-9-7 on the road.  The Caps won the first meeting in the four-game season series against the Flyers, winning a 2-1 Gimmick decision in Philadelphia on November 13^th.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

Sean Couturier once had the reputation as a defense-first forward whose offensive contributions, while welcome, were not the centerpiece of his game.  Then, two years ago, he exploded, more than doubling his previous year’s point total, going 31-45-76 in 2017-2018 after going 14-20-34 in 2016-2017.  It was the first time in his career he topped 40 points.  And, to prove that was not a fluke, he poste 76 points again last season (33-43-76).  This season, though, his scoring pace has lagged a bit.  Through 42 games he is 12-22-34, putting him on a pace to finish 23-43-63 – good by his early career standards, but not as impressive as the last two seasons.  He has been very consistent of late, though.  Since he posted consecutive games without a point in late November, he has not had consecutive games without a point hi his last 20 games and is 6-13-19 over that span.  In 30 career games against the Caps, Couturier is 6-13-19, plus-7.

Most analysts reviewing the Matt Niskanen-for-Radko Gudas that sent Niskanen to Philadelphia thought the Caps might have gotten the better part of the deal, Gudas’ underlying numbers being better recently, and Niskanen’s performance last season perhaps signaling a decline.  However, while the jury remains out on who might have won that trade, Niskanen has contributed some pop from the blue line for the Flyers that was not there for the Caps last season.  His five goals is tied with Shayne Gostisbehere for second on the club among defensemen, and his 12 assists and 17 points place him alone in second behind Ivan Provorov.  Niskanen’s goals-assists-points per game (0.12-0.29-0.41) resemble more Niskanen’s production two years ago in Washington (0.10-0.32-0.43) than is does last year’s (0.10-0.21-0.31).  He has hit a bit of a dry spell lately.  After posting a two-point game against Buffalo on December 19^th, Niskanen is 0-1-1, minus-6, in his last six games.  He is 1-5-6, plus-8, in 13 career games against Washington.

If you are going to beat Carter Hart in Philadelphia, bring a lunch.  It’s going to be a long day.  Hart has started 14 games in goal for the Flyers in Philadelphia this season and boasts an 11-1-2 record.  He has hardly been a passenger in the effort.  Nine times in 14 games he posted save percentages over .940.  Only once in those 14 games did he post a save percentage under .900, stopping 12 of 15 shots (.800) in a 4-1 loss to Dallas on October 19^th, his only regulation loss on home ice this season.  The question for this game is whether it his home record or his most recent performance that will emerge.  In his last four appearances, all on the road, he is 0-3-0 (one no-decision), 5.23, .830.  Hart is 0-1-1, 2.43, .925 in two career appearances against the Caps.

1.  The Flyers have employed 39 goaltenders against the Caps in the all-time series.  None, save one, has as many as ten wins.  The exception is Ron Hextall, who was 25-13 (six ties) against the Caps in 44 games.

2.  Still on goalies… No Flyer netminder has ever posted more than one career shutout against the Caps while a Flyer.  Nine have done it once: Hextall, Dominic Roussel, Ilya Bryzgalov, Darren Jensen, Joh Vanbiesbrouck, Bernie Parent, Brian Buocher, Tommy Soderstrom, and Bob Froese.

3.  Hextall was the epitome of the “Broad Street Bully: Goalie Edition.”  In 44 career regular season games against the Caps, he had 44 penalty minutes.

4.  The Flyers have been successful at home this season in no small part to their scoring balance.  Eight different skaters have at least 12 points, but none of them have as many as 20 (Sean Couturier and Travis Konecny have 19).

5.  The defense has been especially valuable to the Flyers on home ice.  As a group, they have combined for 17 goals in 19 home games (seven on power plays), and none of the defensemen carry a minus rating.

1.  An illustration of how much turnover and how frequent it occurs in the NHL… The current roster of Caps skaters has a total of 79 goals against the Flyers as members of the Caps.  Of that total, 52 of them are shared by Alex Ovechkin (34) and Nicklas Backstrom (18).  No other Capital has more than five goals against the Flyers with the club (T.J. Oshie, Tom Wilson, and Dmitry Orlov).

2.  The Caps have scored multiple power play goals 22 times in Philadelphia.  They have not been especially successful in doing it, going 10-9-1 (two ties).

3.  Washington will want to avoid allowing two or more power play goals to the Flyers.  In 27 games in which they allowed two or more power play goals in Philadelphia, the Caps are 3-22-1 (1 tie).

4. Keeping the Flyers from getting off quickly could be important.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 10-2-4 in 16 games in Philadelphia when blanking the Flyers in the first period.

5.  In 220 games between these teams and all the animosity and orneriness displayed over more than 40 years battling one another, only one player for either team has ever been assessed a match penalty.  The Caps’ Craig Berube was tagged with an intent-to-injure penalty in the waning moments of a 5-3 loss to the Flyers in Philadelphia on February 13, 1995.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Travis Konecny

There are names among the Flyers that Caps fans will instantly recognize – veteran Claude Giroux, former Cap Matt Niskanen, the latest Great Masked Hope in goal, Carter Hart.  But how many, when they hear the name “Travis Konecny,” think…”oh yeah, he’s a Flyer, too?”  But there he is, a 22-year old with his Flyer future spread out before him, but already in his fourth NHL season.  What he has become, in his young career to date, is a player of almost spooky consistency.  He followed up a solid rookie season (11-17-28 in 70 games) by going 24-23-47 in 81 games in his sophomore season, and they going 24-25-49 in 82 games last season.  In 39 games played this season he is 12-24-36 (team leader in points), his goal scoring on pace to finish with, yes, 24 goals once more.

Konecny has been potent on home ice thus far for the Flyers this season, his 8-11-19 scoring line matching that of Sean Couturier to tie for the team lead in goals and points on home ice for the orange and black.  As a player on whom the club depends for scoring punch, his contributions matter.  The Flayers are 11-1-0 on home ice in games in which he recorded at least one point, and they are 2-1-4 in those games he did not.  What he is also getting this season is more power play responsibility.  After averaging a little over a minute and a half per game in his first three seasons, he is averaging 2:47 per game on the power play so far this season.  Konecny is 2-0-2, minus-1, in 12 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

It would be fair to say that the NHL party started for Nicklas Backstrom on the Wells Fargo Center ice sheet.  Backstrom was a rookie learning the ropes in the NHL in the fall of 2007, and he was putting together some decent numbers.  In his first 21 games he was 1-8-9, earning single points in nine games, and averaging a little under 16 minutes a game, but playing as much wing as center.  Then, the Caps made a coaching change at Thanksgiving, replacing Glen Hanlon with Bruce Boudreau. 

The first game under the new coach was against the Flyers in Philadelphia.  It did not take long for Backstrom to show the new coach what he had in the rookie center.  Backstrom got the primary assist on a Mike Green power play goal in the third minute of the first period to open the scoring.  After Chris Clark gave the Caps a 2-0 lead early in the second period, the Caps struck again in the 15^th minute, Donald Brashear getting the goal and Backstrom contributing the secondary assist to give him his first career multi-point game.  The Flyers came back, though, with three unanswered goals to tie the game late in regulation.  With just under two minutes gone in the overtime session, it was Backstrom who would end it with an assist from Alex Ovechkin, a pair that would define – and continue to define – Caps hockey for more than a decade.  For Backstrom, it was his first three-point game of a total that has reached 80 in his career, fifth-most among all players since he entered the league.  And starting with that rookie season, only one player in the league has scored more points against the Flyers in Philadelphia than the 33 posted by Backstrom.  Sidney Crosby has 34.  Backstrom is 18-35-53, plus-14, in 46 games overall in his career against the Flyers.

In the end…

Do not let the Flyers’ recent sluggishness distract; there is no more formidable team in the league on home ice than the Flyers this season.  Even when they lose, they make it difficult.  Among their six losses at Wells Fargo Center, four were in extra time, and another was a two-goal loss that featured a late empty net power play goal in Arizona’s 3-1 win over the Flyers in early December.  It would not be a surprise to see these teams go once more to extra time to settle this one, but in the end, the result will be the same. 

Capitals 2 – Flyers 1

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 44: Senators at Capitals, January 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to the Capital One Arena ice sheet on Tuesday night to host the Ottawa Senators.  On paper, this looks like a mismatch, the Caps on top of the league standings, and the Senators 14th in the 16-team Eastern Conference and losers of four in a row.  But these kinds of games pose special challenges, even to talented teams like the Caps.

Then and Now…

The Capitals and Senators will meet for the 97^th time on Tuesday, the Caps holding a 50-36-5 (five ties) record against Ottawa, 29-13-2 (four ties) on home ice.  Since 2005-2006, the Caps are 29-15-5 overall against the Senators and 18-4-2 on home ice.

Active Leaders vs. Opponent…

Noteworthy Opponents…

It seems that teams have are having troubles often have outliers on the positive side of things.  Sometimes it is a goal scorer, sometimes it is a goalie with a save percentage that outperforms his records.  With the Ottawa Senators, it is a player with a noteworthy plus-minus number.  The Senators have dressed only six skaters this season who carry a positive plus-minus rating into this game, and six of them are plus-7 or worse.  The outlier is forward Jean-Gabriel Pageau, who is a plus-16 on a poor team.  That is tied for 15^th in the league.  The next best Senator in this category, Dylan DeMelo, is tied for 91^st at plus-7.  Plus-minus has its limits as a statistic, but outliers serve to illustrate that there are good overall performances are being had from players, even on a team that struggles.

Not that Pageau lags in other statistical categories for the Senators.  He is second in goals (19), second in points (30) and is a team best 19.2 percent shooting among players dressing for at least five games.  Those 19 goals have already tied the career high he set in 2015-2016, and his 59-point pace would leave far behind his career best to date, 43 points in that 2015-2016 season.  Pageau also happens to be second among Ottawa forwards in average shorthanded ice time (2:33 per game), an illustration of his responsibilities on the defensive side of the puck.  The Senators depend heavily on his contributions, the team posting a 3-13-3 record in the 19 games in which he failed to record a point.  What he has yet to do in his career is record a point against the Caps.  He is without on, and is a minus-9, in 16 career games against Washington.

Ottawa has already dressed 11 defensemen this season.  Only two of them have dressed for all 42 games played by the Senators going into their game with the Caps.  They are very different types of defensemen, too.  Thomas Chabot is the “offensive” type, leading the Ottawa blueliners in assists (21),  points (25), and shots on goal (113); and serving as the triggerman on the Senators’ power play (seven points, all assists).  He is also the minutes eater for the club, averaging 26:22 per game, almost four minutes more than any other defenseman (Nikita Zaitsev: 22:31).  Nevertheless, he is lagging from the performance pace he set last year, establishing career bests in goals (14), assists (41), and points (55) despite skating for two more minutes per game than he did last season (24:17).  His ice time reflects some of the frustration the Senators have faced this season.  A struggling team often needs its offensive weapons to log higher ice times to keep them in or help them come back in games.  However, in 23 games in which Chabot skated more than 26 minutes (most in the league), the Senators are just 7-11-5.  On the other hand, they have not lost when he skated less than 22:30 in a game this season (6-0-0).  In four career regular season games against the Caps, Chabot is 0-1-1, minus-4.

The other defenseman to dress for all 42 games this season for Ottawa is Mark Borowiecki.  He is not a subtle player.  Over the last six seasons, including this one, no defenseman has amassed more penalty minutes than Borowiecki (575) and is fifth overall.  That penalty minute total would be much higher had he not missed 59 games over the previous two seasons to a variety of injuries and two suspensions.  This season has been a bit different for Borowiecki, though.  He has five goals already, a career high and matching the total he scored in 175 games over the previous three seasons.  He has 11 assists, another career high, as are his 16 points.  If his game hasn’t mellowed, the improvements on offense have come with a moderation in his play outside the rules.  He has 54 penalty minutes in 42 games, the 1.29 penalty minutes per game being the second lowest for a full season in his career (1.23 minutes per game in 52 games in 2017-2018).  Borowiecki has dialed it down even more in terms of games in which he has been penalized.  He logged penalty minutes in only 11 of 41 games to date, although the Senators have not suffered much for it, relative to their performance overall.  They are 5-6-0 in those 11 games Borowiecki spent time in the box.  Meanwhile, Ottawa is 7-5-2 in the 14 games in which he recorded a point.  Borowiecki is looking for his first career point against the Caps, having played 12 games against them with a minus-4 rating.

1.  Ottawa does not have a power play goal from a defenseman this season.

2.  The Senators’ special teams on the road are struggling mightily.  Their 9.4 percent power play is 30^th of 31 teams, their 78.8 percent penalty kill ranks 15^th, and their 88.2 special teams index value (sum of power play and penalty kill values) is 29^th of 31 teams (Detroit is 79.2, and Buffalo is 86.3).

3.  Scoring first does not seem to matter to Ottawa, at least on the road.  Not that it happens often.  The Senators have scored the game’s first goal on the road four times in 22 road games this season (fewest in the league) and have one win to show for it (also fewest in the league).

4.  In that same vein, no team has fewer first period goals scored on the road than Ottawa.  Their 11 goals are tied with Dallas for fewest in the league, but the Stars have played three fewer road games.

5.  Ottawa has allowed the fourth-highest number of goals on the road this season (83), and they have been consistent about it over the course of games – 28 in the first period, 27 in the second period, and 26 in the third period, with two more in overtime to reach the total.

1.  Only four teams have allowed fewer third period goals on home ice than the Caps (17): Pittsburgh (16), Carolina (14), Columbus (11), and St. Louis (9).

2.  The Caps have scored six goals at 6-on-5 this season on home ice, twice as many as the teams with the second-most (Calgary and Tampa Bay).

3.  Only Boston has more wins on home ice this season when trailing after two periods (four) than the Caps (three, tied with three other teams).

4.  No team in the Eastern Conference averages more penalty minutes per game on home ice than the Caps (10:24); only Anaheim averages more overall (11:31).

5.  Through 43 games, 19 different Capitals have hit a post or a crossbar at least once.  All of last season the team had 20 players hitting iron at least once.  Jakub Vrana leads the team with eight misses of the hitting pipe sort (all hit posts).  Radko Gudas is the only one of 19 skaters playing in at least 20 games so far (including the departed Chandler Stephenson) not to have hit iron once.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Ottawa: Craig Anderson

Craig Anderson owns the top ranking of just about every goaltending statistical category worth having in Senators franchise history – games (421), wins (197), save percentage (.914, among goalies with at least 100 games played for the club), shutouts (28), and even points (11).  But he has a couple not worth having, too – regulation losses (161) and overtime losses (45).  And, of the seven goalies to have appeared in at least 100 games for the franchise, his 2.82 goals against average is the highest in the group.  He has seen just about everything in his ten seasons with Ottawa.  He has been a 30-win goalie twice (33 wins in 2011-2012 and 31 wins in 2015-2016), and he has been a 30-loss goalie twice, including regulation and extra time losses (31 losses in 2017-2018 and 31 losses last season).

At age 38, he is on the home stretch of his career, and one concession being made to that is a lighter workload.  Part of that this season is his having missed time to a lower body injury, but he still has started one fewer game (18) than Anders Nilsson (19), who himself has had to deal with injury, absent from the lineup with a concussion since mid-December.  Anderson has performed admirably in Nilsson’s absence, going 3-3-1 (one no-decision), 2.83, .910 in eight appearances.  However, he has spun out recently, losing his last three decisions (0-2-1) while stopping just 78 of 91 shots (.857 save percentage).  If Anderson gets the call in this game, it will be an odd departure of sorts.  He has logged only 66:49 in ice time on the road since Thanksgiving, none of it since December 7^th.  That is largely due to Ottawa having a home-heavy schedule since December 7^th (eight of 12 games), but it will be something to watch.  Anderson is 11-8-2, 2.46, .918, with two shutouts in 22 career appearances against the Caps.

Washington: Radko Gudas

Well, Caps fans, how do you like him now?  Having arrived in Washington with something of a “bad boy” reputation, Radko Gudas has been reliable and consistent, if not entirely rid of his edgy ways.  Yes, he leads all Caps defensemen in penalty minutes (34), but he is one of four Caps defensemen in double digits in points (13) and is on a pace to set a career high in that category (25) that would eclipse the 23 points he recorded with Philadelphia in 2016-2017.  The Caps have only lost twice in regulation in which he logged more than 18 minutes in ice time (10-2-2). 

His physicality within the rules has been a feature of wins, the Caps going 18-4-2 in the 24 games in which he was credited with three or more hits.  They are 12-2-1 in games in which he recorded two or more blocked shots.  And on those occasions in which he has not been engaged in the offensive end, at least as measured in shots on goal, the Caps have still flourished, going 7-1-2 in the ten games in which he did not record a shot on goal.  He has picked up that offense of late, going 1-5-6, plus-6, over his last ten games.  Gudas is 1-6-7, plus-1, in 20 career games against Ottawa.

In the end…

A weeknight game against a weak team, following up on a thrilling, historic come-from-behind win in overtime.  Gee, what could go wrong?  This is the very definition of a “trap” game, the Caps coming off that big win against San Jose on Sunday to face a team that is playing better than the prognosticators thought they might before the season started.  It is the sort of game that tests a team’s discipline and maturity.  The Caps have displayed a considerable amount of the latter, something to be expected from a veteran team.  It is the former – discipline – that has been the challenge.  It is the lack of discipline – the penalties taken, the wandering focus from time to time – that could allow the Senators a path to victory.  We like the Caps’ chances of blocking that path.

Capitals 5 – Senators 2

A TWO-Point Afternoon: Washington Capitals -- Game 43: Capitals 5 - Sharks 4 (OT)

The Washington Capitals wrapped up their season series with the San Jose Sharks on Sunday afternoon at Capital One Arena. The Caps fell behind, allowed the Sharks to take a two-goal lead twice, including on an empty net goal with one minute left in regulation, but then put on as unbelievable a finish as the franchise has ever seen, scoring two goals in the last 47 seconds of regulation to tie the game, then winning it in overtime, 5-4.

First Period

The Caps had the best chance early on when Jakub Vrana beat Sharks goalie Martin Jones in the eighth minute of the contest, but his shot found the post and rattled out to leave the game scoreless.  It would be the high point of a first period with chances that were not converted that ended scoreless.

-- San Jose had a 13-10 edge in shots and a 24-19 advantage in shot attempts.

-- Dmitry Orlov led the Caps with three shots on goal; no other Cap had more than one.

-- Garnet Hathaway was credited with three hits, half the Caps’ total for the period.

Second Period

Just over a minute into the period, San Jose appeared to get the game’s first goal when Barclay Goodrow redirected a shot down and to the right of goalie Braden Holtby’s right pad.  However, the goal was immediately washed out by the referee, who ruled that Goodrow’s stick was above the crossbar when he made contact with the puck.

San Jose did strike first after Richard Panik was sent to the penalty box for hi-sticking.  Joe Thornton controlled the puck deep in the corner to Holtby’s right.  He deked defenseman Nick Jensen to the ice, circled in, and then found Evander Kane for a one-timer from the edge of the left wing circle to make it 1-0, 6:25 into the period.

The lead lasted barely a minute.  Brendan Leipsic outraced Marc-Edouard Vlasic to a loose puck along the right wing wall, and Leipsic flicked into the middle for a Nic Dowd one-timer that beat Jones at the 7:29 mark to tie the game.

The fourth line continued to drive action, Garnet Hathaway drawing a slashing penalty from Kane to put the Caps on a power play at the 7:56 mark. The Caps failed to convert, and it cost them.  Logan Couture fed Kane coming out of the box and cut in front of him to create a screen in front of Holtby.  Kane snapped a shot through that screen to beat Holtby past his right pad to make it 2-1, Sharks, 10:06 into the period.

Kane completed the hat trick, converting another power play chance.  With Radko Gudas off for slashing, Erik Karlsson sent a drive that caromed off the shin of Garnet Hathaway right onto Kane’s stick.  He wasted no time in rocketing a shot through Holtby to make it 3-1, 16:49 into the period.

The Caps inched to within a goal on some sloppy play by the Sharks behind their own net.  T.J. Oshie muffled a lazy attempt by Vlasic to move the puck along the end boards, circled out from behind the net, and found Jakub Vrana all alone in the right wing circle.  Vrana had time and space to pick his spot, and he dialed up and snap shot under the crossbar to make it 3-2 at the 18:42 mark.

The Caps had a chance in the dying seconds of the period, Evgeny Kuznetsov on a breakaway down the left side.  Cutting to the net, he tried to curl the puck between his legs and wrong-foot a shot on Jones’ blocker side, but Kuznetsov lost control of the puck before he could attempt the shot.  The teams went to the locker room with the Caps down a goal, 3-2.

-- The Caps had a 12-11 edge in shots on goal for the period, but San Jose had a 22-17 advantage in shot attempts.

-- Nick Jensen led the Caps in ice time through two periods with 15:57, 9:04 of that coming in the second period.

-- Jakub Vrana (three shots, two misses) and Radko Gudas (two shots, two blocked shots, one miss) led the Caps with five shot attempts apiece through two periods.

Third Period

Nic Dowd made his way to the penalty box in the fifth minute of the period for sending the puck off the rink from the defensive end.  San Jose did not score, but the Caps could not find the equalizer, either.

The teams continued back and forth for most of the period, the Caps unable to find the tying goal and the Sharks unable to put things away.  San Jose did get insurance late with an empty netter with one minute left to make it 4-2, but the Caps got it back immediately when Vrana was left alone between the hash marks to tale a pass from Lars Eller and beat Jones to the glove side with 47 seconds left.

The Caps found a way to tie the game in the waning seconds.  Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov worked the puck back and forth along the right wing wall, Kuznetsov ending up with it in the corner.  He sent a no-look wrap-around pass to T.J. Oshie in the right wing circle, and Oshie one-timed the puck past Jones to tie the game with 15 seconds left in regulation.

Overtime

The Caps needed two minutes to end it.  Braden Holtby, who had two superb stops in the extra session, calmly sent a pass from his crease up along the right wing side and off the wall, where John Carlson took it in stride.  Carlson circled up ice and into the offensive zone with Lars Eller on a developing 2-on-1.  Carlson sent the puck across, Eller fished it out of his skates, and he snapped a shot past Jones to send the Caps faithful home in a happy, if surprised, frame of mind in the 5-4 win.

Other stuff…

-- What a finish.  After scoring two goals on their first 26 shots in the first 59:13, the Caps scored three goals on three shots in 2:48 to win it in overtime.

-- Goalie Braden Holtby earned the second assist on the game-winning goal.  It was his first point of the season and 11^th career point for the Caps.

-- T.J. Oshie’s game-tying goal was the Caps’ sixth at 6-on-5 this season, tying them with Florida and Buffalo for the league lead (edit: the Caps had two 6-on-5 goals, giving them seven, most in the league)

-- Jakub Vrana had two goals, his eighth career two-goal game.

-- T.J. Oshie had a two-point game (1-1-2), extending his points streak to three games.

-- Lars Eller had a two-point game (1-1-2), his fifth of the season and first on home ice.

-- Vrana and Dmitry Orlov led the club with four shots apiece; John Carlson had seven shot attempts to lead the team.

-- The teams finished even in shots on goal with 29 apiece; the Sharks led in shot attempts, 62-52.

-- Per NBC Sports Washington, this was the first time in franchise history that the Caps won a game when trailing by two goals in the last minute.

-- That was the first home game this season in which Braden Holtby allowed more than three goals and won.

In the end…

This game will not go into the annals of the best games played by the Caps from a purist’s standpoint.  But it put on display the team’s veteran makeup, constantly pushing, even when down two goals; and it illustrated Yogi Berra’s timeless wisdom that “it’s not over ‘til it’s over.”  Take away what you will from this game, and it was frustrating, annoying (that Kane fellow), depressing at points.  But for 2:48 at the end of the game, it was quite a thrill ride of the sort that can serve to shake the Caps out of their recent doldrums and back on the path of dominance they have displayed for most of the season.