The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Round Robin Game 2: Capitals vs. Flyers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

August 6^th is not a particularly exciting date on the historical calendar of the Washington Capitals.  It is the birthday of former Caps defenseman Christian Djoos (1994); it is the anniversary of the signing of free agent forward Grant Martin in 1985, who played in 20 regular season and one playoff game for the Caps over two seasons; and it is the anniversary of the 2018 naming of Brett Leonhardt, Reid Cashman, and Scott Arniel as assistant coaches for the club.  It will now be remembered as the first time in 253 regular season and playoff games that the Caps faced the Philadelphia Flyers in a game played in August.

The Caps and Flyers opened their respective round robin phases of the postseason with the Caps dropping a Gimmick decision to the Tampa Bay Lightning, 3-2, and the Flyers besting the Boston Bruins, 4-1.  But now, let us take a look at…

How we got here:

November 13: Capitals 2 – Flyers 1 (OT/Gimmick)

The Caps scored early on a goal by Brendan Leipsic in the first period, and the Flyers scored late on a power play goal by Claude Giroux to tie the game and force extra time.  After a scoreless overtime, Evgeny Kuznetsov recorded the only goal in the freestyle competition to give the Caps a 2-1 win.  This was one of only 20 games in the league all season in which both teams recorded more than 30 shots (the Caps had 36 to the Flyers’ 31) and in which each team posted one or fewer goals.

January 8: Flyers 3 - Capitals 2

Three lead changes was the feature of this game.  The Flyers opened the scoring in Philadelphia on a Travis Konecny goal less than four minutes into the game.  The Caps came back on goals 5:23 apart by Nicklas Backstrom and Jakub Vrana to take a 2-1 lead.  Robert Hagg tied the game with 42 seconds left in the first period to close a wild opening frame.  Kevin Hayes scored what proved to be the game-winning goal with 2:01 left in the second period, a shorthanded goal on a Caps power play that would end up going 0-for-5 for the game.

February 8: Flyers 7 - Capitals 2

Compared to the game played a month earlier, this game started quietly enough, the teams exchanging goals (Sean Couturier for the Flyers, T.J. Oshie for the Caps) to go to the first intermission tied, 1-1.  Then, things took a turn.  The Flyers scored six straight goals over the second and third periods to open up a 7-1 lead and end the competitive portion of the contest.  Evgeny Kuznetsov closed the scoring mid-way through the period for the Caps in a 7-2 loss.

March 4: Flyers 5 – Capitals 2

The Caps opened the scoring in the last meeting of the regular season between the two teams, but once more they fell victim to goals scored in a bunch.  The Flyers scored three goals in ten minutes in the second period to take a lead they would not relinquish.  Garnet Hathaway did manage to draw the Caps within a goal with a late strike less than two minutes before the second intermission, but goals by Ivan Provorov and Scott Laughlin in the third period pushed the Caps to their third straight defeat at the hands of the Flyers.

The numbers:

Who’s hot, or at least, who was hot for the Caps?

• Nicklas Backstrom.  Backstrom is one of two active Capitals who, over his career, averaged more than a point per game against the Flyers (55 points in 49 games/1.12 per game).  The odd part of his production, though, is that it has not been much of a predictor of outcomes.  The Caps are 17-10-6 in the 33 games in which he recorded at least one point against Philadelphia (1.21 standings points per game), and they are 7-5-4 in the 16 games in which he did not (1.13 standings points per game).  Including Monday’s game against Tampa Bay, Backstrom has points in 21 of 32 games away from Capital One Arena and is 7-21-28 over those games.
• Alex Ovechkin. The other active Capital averaging more than a point per game against the Flyers over his career is Ovechkin (59 points in 57 games/1.04 per game).  What is more, his point-scoring mattered.  The Caps are 19-7-8 in games in which Ovechkin posted at least one point against Philadelphia.  But let’s put a pin in that for a moment.
• Braden Holtby.  Since coming into the league in 2010-2011, only two goaltenders in the league have more wins against the Flyers than Holtby (13) – Henrik Lundqvist (21) and Sergei Bobrovsky (15).  Coming into this season, Holtby brought a 13-game points streak against the Flyers, going 9-0-4, 1.88, .937.  but he has been even better against the Flyers in a postseason setting.  He started and finished all six games of the Caps’ Eastern Conference quarterfinal win over the Flyers in 2016, stopping 149 of 154 shots (.968 save percentage), allowing more than one goal only once, and shutting out the Flyers to start and end the series.  Four years removed from that series means a lot of turnover for Orange and Black personnel, but Holtby has not been intimidated by the colors or the logo.  But put a pin in this, too.

Who’s cold, or at least, who was cold for the Caps?

• Alex Ovechkin.  Four Capitals dressed for all four games against Philadelphia this season and did not record a point, three defensemen (Dmitry Orlov, Radko Gudas, and Jonas Siegenthaler) and Alex Ovechkin.  The Flyers are the only team Ovechkin faced four times this season against which he did not record a point, and Philadelphia is one of only five teams overall against which he went without a point (Pittsburgh, San Jose, Vancouver, and Vegas were the others).
• Braden Holtby.  As good as Holtby was against the Flyers in the run-up to this season, the 2019-2020 season was, well, less good.  He was 1-3-0, 4.15, .857 in the four games he played against Philadelphia.
• Nicklas Backstrom.  In his last 19 games, Backstrom has two goals on 37 shots.  The good sign for him, given that the Caps will be playing away from Washington, is that his last five goals scored in the regular season were on the road.

Who to watch for the Flyers…

• Claude Giroux.  There is perhaps no more familiar face among the Philadelphia Flyers to contemporary Caps fans than that of Claude Giroux.  The 45 regular season games he has on his resume against the Caps tops all active Flyers, and it’s not close for second (Jakub Voracek: 34). He is one of eight Flyers to have faced the Caps at least 20 times in his career who averages at least a point per game against the Caps (45 points in 45 games.  This season, Giroux led the Flyers with five points in the four games against the Caps, four of those points on power plays.  He closed the regular season with a strong finishing kick: 8-10-18 in his last 15 games.
• Nicolas Aube-Kubel.  The Flyers were not sparing in dressing rookies against the Caps this season.  Eight rookies among the 27 skaters facing the Caps were rookies.  Forward Nicolas Aube-Kubel dressed for three games and led the rookies in scoring against the Caps, going 1-2-3 in the three games he played.  Aube-Kubel took a bit of time reaching the NHL, he being a second round (48^th overall) pick in the 2014 Entry Draft, and his stats for the season after he joined the Flyers were not jump-off-the-page impressive, but seven goals and 15 points while averaging just over 11 minutes a game spoke to a measure of offensive efficiency on his part.  He finished the regular season with four goals and eight points in his last 12 games.
• Carter Hart.  The Flyers finally have their goalie.  Carter Hart is one of five goalies in Flyer history to dress for at least 40 games in a season, post at least 20 wins, and do so with a goals against average under 2.50 and a save percentage over .910 at least once (43 games, 24-13-3, 2.42, .914).  He is the first to pull off that feat since Robert Esche did it in 2003-2004 (40 games, 21-11-7, 2.04, .915).  Against the Caps, though, Hart split the work with Brian Elliott, appearing in two of the four games, and they happened to be the first two games in the season series.  He was impressive in those appearances, stopping 35 of 36 shots in a 2-1 Gimmick loss to the Caps on November 13^th and then stopping 26 of 28 shots in a 3-2 win over the Caps on January 8^th.  He was another strong-finishing Flyer, going 10-2-0, 2.17, .926 over his last dozen appearances of the regular season.  He stopped 34 of 35 shots in the Flyers’ opening game of the round-robin, a 4-1 win over the Boston Bruins.

Fun Facts in the Season Series…

• The Caps had their worst goal differential per game of any opponent against the Flyers this season (minus-2.25).
• Washington outscored the Flyers, 5-3, in the first periods of the four games this season, but they were outscored, 13-2, in periods two and three in the season series.
• The Flyers scored six straight goals from six different players in a span of 25:17 across the second and third periods in a 7-2 win over the Caps on February 8^th.
• The Caps did not get a goal from any defenseman in any of the four games against Philadelphia this season.
• Washington, not a good faceoff team overall this season, saved their worst for the Flyers.  The Caps’ 39.6 faceoff winning percentage against the Flyers was their worst against any Eastern Conference team.
• Only one Capital recorded as many as five shots in a single game against the Flyers this season, and no, it was not Ovechkin.  Richard Panik had six shots on goal in the Caps lone win in the season series, a 2-1 Gimmick win on November 13^th.

…hey, when you go 1-3-0 in four games, not many of the “facts” are going to be “fun.”

If the Caps are going to put a pin in the party balloon that has been the Flyers’ season against the Caps and win the second game of the round robin, they will have to be far more competitive over all 60 minutes than they have been, and it would help if the stars were more than a little bit brighter when the Caps take the ice on Thursday.

Capitals 4 – Flyers 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is BACK ON THE AIR!!! -- Round Robin Game 1: Capitals vs. Lightning

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

August 3^rd is the 216^th day of 2020, was the day in 1492 that Christopher Columbus set sail from Spain for the New World, is the 99^th anniversary of baseball Commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis banning the eight Chicago “Black Sox” from Major League Baseball, and it is the day this year on which the Washington Capitals resume their chase for the Stanley Cup.

The Capitals and the other 23 teams in the revamped Stanley Cup tournament have been frozen in place on their Stanley Cup course since the NHL announced its “pause” in the season due to concerns over the COVID-19 virus on March 12^th.  But Monday, the Caps will take the ice for the first game with meaning in 147 days when they face off against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first of three round-robin games to determine seeding for the official “playoffs” to follow.

How we got here…

November 29: Capitals 4 – Lightning 3 (OT)

Tampa Bay scored goals 5:38 apart (Braden Point, Mikhail Sergachev) straddling the first and second periods to take a 2-0 lead in Washington.  After Evgeny Kuznetsov halved the lead on a power play 5:17 into the second period, the Lightning took their second two-goal lead of the game on an Alex Killorn goal with 1:12 left in the frame, the second time in the game the Bolts scored with less than 90 seconds left in a period.  Jakub Vrana scored 3:45 into the third period to pull the Caps within a goal for a second time, and then Alex Ovechkin tied the game on a power play mid-way through the period, beating goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy with a one-timer on the short side:

Dmitry Orlov won the game 3:03 into overtime when he looked off Vasilevskiy from the left wing circle faking “pass” and snapped a shot past the goalie’s blocker for the win.

December 14: Capitals 5 – Lightning 2

The second meeting of the teams started innocently enough, Nicklas Backstrom opening the scoring in the seventh minute of the first period and Brayden Point tying the game in the sixth minute of the second period in Tampa.  In the third period, though, the Caps dominated.  Lars Eller and Garnet Hathaway scored less than a minute apart early in the period to put the Caps in front.  Jan Rutta got one of them back mid-way through the period, but T.J. Oshie put to rest any further thoughts of a comeback with a goal 63 seconds after Rutta’s to give the Caps a 4-2 lead.  Tom Wilson closed the scoring with an empty-net goal with 38.6 seconds left in the 5-2 Caps win.

December 21: Capitals 3 – Lightning 1

After a scoreless first period, Radko Gudas opened the scoring 4:40 into the second period to give the Caps the lead.  That goal held up until the 10:00 mark of the third period when Nikita Kucherov tied the game for the visitors.  The Caps broke back on top less than four minutes later on a goal by Dmitry Orlov, who one-timed a feed from Jakub Vrana from the top of the left wing circle for what proved to be the game-winning goal.  Nic Dowd provided the final margin with a shorthanded empty-net goal with 2:23 left.

The numbers:

Who’s hot, or at least, who was hot for the Caps?

• Alex Ovechkin. In his last ten games before the pause, Ovechkin led the Caps in goals (eight) and points (ten), shooting 22.9 percent along the way.
• Richard Panik. Over his last ten games before the pause, Panik tied for second in points (eight) and was second in plus-minus (plus-6).  One of his two goals over that span was a game-winner, that coming in the Caps’ last win before the pause, a 5-2 win in Pittsburgh against the Penguins.
• Tom Wilson.  In his ten games leading up to the pause, Wilson had four goals, one of them a power play goal against the New Jersey Devils and another being a game-winner in a 4-3 win over the Wild in Minnesota.

Who’s cold, or at least, who was cold for the Caps?

• Brenden Dillon.  He was not expected to be a big offensive contributor when he came to the Caps from San Jose at the trading deadline, but in ten games with the Caps, he is still looking for his first point with his new team.
• Evgeny Kuznetsov.  When he returns to the ice against Tampa Bay, Kuznetsov will be dragging along with him an 11-game streak without a goal on 19 shots.
• Nicklas Backstrom.  In his last 19 games, Backstrom has two goals on 36 shots.  The good sign for him, given that the Caps will be playing away from Washington, is that his last five goals scored in the regular season were on the road.

Who to watch for the Lightning…

• Nikita Kucherov.  In 21 games after the All-Star Game break, Kucherov was 11-20-31; three of his 11 goals were game-winners.
• Steven Stamkos.  Limited to only 12 games after the All-Star Game break (core muscle surgery), Stamkos still scored 11 goals to tie for the team lead.  However, he did suffer a leg injury in the voluntary workout phase leading up to the tournament, so he will bear watching.
• Andrei Vasilevskiy.  Since the All-Star Game break, Vasilevskiy is tied for the league lead in goalie wins (11, with Nashville’s Juuse Saros), but he has done it more as a passenger. His goals against average of 2.59 ranks 18^th among 38 goalies with at least 500 minutes over that span, while his save percentage of .917 ranks 16^th in that group. His 3.70 career GAA against the Caps is second-worst among all NHL teams he has faced (3.72 vs. Colorado), and his .897 career save percentage against Washington is second-worst among Eastern Conference teams he has faced (.895 vs. Ottawa).

Fun Facts in the Season Series…

• The Caps scored 12 goals in three games against the Lightning.  That total was shared by 11 players, Dmitry Orlov the only player with two goals.
• Both of Orlov’s goals were game-winners, his only game-winning goals of the season.
• The Caps owned the third period against the Lightning, outscoring them in each third period of the three games and 8-2 in the final frame overall.
• John Carlson did not record a point in three games against the Lightning, one of five teams against whom he did not record a point this season (Buffalo, Columbus, Vancouver, and Winnipeg being the others).
• Only nine of 21 skaters to dress for the Lightning recorded points against the Caps this season.  

And so the Capitals, 21 weeks to the day since their last game played in anger, will resume their quest to hoist the Stanley Cup.  In the first of what will be the oddest set of tournament games ever played in the NHL…

Capitals 4 – Lightning 3

Washington Capitals: Round Robin by the Numbers

The opening round of the pre-playoff playoffs are about to begin in the NHL, and for the Washington Capitals, that means a round robin mini-tournament in which they will face off against the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning of the Atlantic Division, and the Philadelphia Flyers of the Metropolitan Division.  Before the games begin, let us break down the Caps by the numbers against these three opponents.

6 – The Caps won six of the ten games against the three opponents, losing four of them, as follows:

• Vs. Boston: 2-1-0
• Vs. Philadelphia: 1-3-0
• Vs. Tampa Bay: 3-0-0

27 – The Caps scored 27 goals in the ten games against the three opponents (not including Gimmick goals).

33 – The Caps allowed 33 goals in the ten games.

23 – The Caps dressed 23 skaters in the ten games they faced against the three opponents.

12 – Of the 23 skaters to dress against the three opponents, 12 of them appeared in all 10 games:

• T.J. Oshie
• Evgeny Kuznetsov
• Jakub Vrana
• Tom Wilson
• Dmitry Orlov
• John Carlson
• Lars Eller
• Garnet Hathaway
• Radko Gudas
• Alex Ovechkin
• Jonas Siegenthaler
• Richard Panik

4 – The Caps scored first in four of the ten games against these opponents, winning three times (2-0-0 vs. Tampa Bay, 1-1-0 vs. Philadelphia; they did not score first in any of the three games against Boston).

3 – The Caps played three extra time games against these opponents, winning all of them.  They had Gimmick wins against Boston (3-2 on November 16^th) and Philadelphia (2-1 on November 13^th), and they won in overtime against Tampa Bay (4-3 on November 29^th).

3 – The Caps took a lead into the third period three times against these opponents, once against each team.  They won all three games.

3 – The Caps went into the third period trailing the Flyers three times in four games.  They lost all three games.

10 – The Caps scored ten first period goals against the three opponents in ten games.  Half of those first period goals came against the Flyers, against whom the Caps finished 1-3-0.  So much for that.

4 – Perhaps the most ominous number in the group.  The Caps won the first six meetings against these three opponents but lost the last four, three of them to the Flyers and once to the Bruins.

23 – The Caps allowed 23 goals in the second and third periods, combined, over the ten games.  Of that total, 13 were scored by the Flyers.  Clearly, the Caps need to be better finishers against that team.

55.16 – The Caps’ shot attempts-for percentage overall at 5-on-5 over the ten games.

46.0 – the Caps’ faceoff winning percentage in ten games against the three teams.

5 – T.J. Oshie leads the team with five goals in the ten games.

10 – Oshie leads the team with ten points in ten games played, as follows by opponent:

• Vs. Boston: 3-0-3
• Vs. Philadelphia: 1-1-2
• Vs. Tampa Bay: 1-4-5

3 – Oshie has multi-point games against each of the three opponents (2-0-2 vs. Boston on December 11^th; 1-1-2 against Philadelphia on February 8^th; and twice against Tampa Bay – 0-3-3 on November 29^th and 1-1-2 on December 14^th).

2 – Dmitry Orlov leads the team with two game-winning goals against this set of opponents, both of them against Tampa Bay (an overtime goal in a 4-3- win on November 29^th and a third-period goal in a 3-1 win on December 21^st).  They were his only game-winning goals of the season.

5 – Nic Dowd has a team-best plus-five rating in the ten games against these opponents.

1 – Nick Jensen is the only skater still with the team who has played more than one game against the three opponents (nine) without having posted a point.

21.7 – Oshie is the only Capital with a shooting percentage over 20 percent against the three opponents (minimum: five shots) on 5-for-23 shooting.

1 – Travis Boyd scored a goal on his only shot on goal in two games played against the three opponents (November 16^th in a 3-2 win over Boston).

9 – Braden Holtby has nine of the ten starts in goal against the three opponents; Ilya Samsonov had one.

.881 – Holtby’s save percentage against the three opponents (.879 vs. Boston; .857 vs. Philadelphia; .930 vs. Tampa Bay).

5 – Holtby allowed three or more goals in five of the nine games in which he played.

And in the “I would not have thought…” department:

I would not have thought Garnet Hathaway would have more goals against these three opponents (three) than Alex Ovechkin (two).

I would not have thought Ovechkin would have no assists in the ten games.

I might have thought Tom Wilson would lead the team in penalty minutes (he does, with 39 in the ten games), but I would not have thought Richard Panik would be second (20).

I would not have thought Ovechkin would be a team-worst minus-9 against the three teams.

If there are any takeaways from all of this, they might include…

- The Caps, even with a 6-4 record against these teams, seem to have overperformed compared to their underlying numbers.  Put another way, they had spiffy shot attempt numbers but otherwise didn’t seem to win the “right” way.

- It would be nice if the Caps demonstrated an ability to beat the Flyers, and that means shutting them down after the first 20 minutes of games.

- Braden Holtby is going to have to pick up his game. Not all games in this tournament will be against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

- Alex Ovechkin’ numbers could use improvement.  Well, considerable improvement against these teams.

Let the games begin.

Peerless Playback: The All-Alphabet Team, "The Z Team"

From the letter “A,” we now arrive at the letter “Z” in our look back at the individual elements of the All-Alphabet Team we built for the Washington Capitals back in 2014.  On paper (or at least “in pixels”), as all of these teams are, some are good, some are not so good, some are a bit of a surprise.  But now we are at the end of this revision, and here is how All-Team Z looked back in 2014 when we published it:

We are now down to the penultimate look back at the All Alphabet Team that we published originally in 2014.  The All-Team W that we published back then was among the more experienced teams in games played with the Caps and looked like this:  

• LW: Dainius Zubrus (2001-2007)
• C: Peter Zezel  (1990-1991)
• RW: Richard Zednik (1996-2001)
• D: Rob Zettler (2000-2002)
• D: Dwayne Zinger (2003)
• G: Roger Crozier (1977)

The All-Team Z is one that lacks high-end offensive production, but it is efficient (at least among the forwards) in a second-third line sort of way.  It is the experience where there is a lot of variation on this team.  For instance, the wingers – Dainius Zubrus and Richard Zednik – combined for 620 regular season games for the Caps.  They also bear the distinction in being traded for one another, Zednik going to the Montreal Canadiens with Jan Bulis and a first round pick in the 2001 Entry Draft for Zubrus, Trevor Linden, and a second round pick in the 2001 Entry Draft.  Zubrus and Zednik account for almost all of the goal scoring on this team in the regular season (155 of the 163 goals recorded) and all of the postseason goal scoring (nine goals in 34 games between them).

Peter Zezel was efficient, but in a very short stay with the club, going 7-5-12 in 20 games.  The small population of games aside, he would complete a forward line on which each member averaged 20 or more goals per 82 games (Zezel: 29, Zubrus: 21, and Zednik: 20).  But those were only 20 games, almost smack in the middle of a 15-year career in which he played in 873 games over 15 seasons.  Zezel, who passed away in May 2009 of a blood disorder, did not leave a deep footprint with the club.

The defense suffers from having few options from which to pick.  Rob Zettler and Dwayne Zinger were the only two defensemen in team history whose last names start with the letter “Z.”  The remain the only two to do so.  In fact, there are no Capitals since the original All-Team Z was published who have a last name starting with the letter “Z,” meaning that the skaters remain intact.

In goal, none of the 45 goalies who appeared in at least one game for the Caps had a last name starting with the letter “Z,” so to improvise, Roger Crozier was given a sweater for at least having the letter in his last name.  And, with no goalie since having the letter anywhere in either their first or last name, Crozier stays.

And there we have it, the re-worked All Alphabet Team for the Washington Capitals, from A-to-Z.  Perhaps we will be back in a few years to take another look, but for now, let’s get ready for what we hope will be hockey in the here and now.