Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Forwards: Lars Eller

Lars Eller

“Face to face, out in the heat
Hanging tough, staying hungry
They stack the odds 'til we take to the street
For the kill with the skill to survive”
-- Frankie Sullivan/Jim Peterik

This is… Jeopardy!

I’ll take “Draft Picks for $500”…

“Joni Ikonen and Olivier Rodrigue”

Who were the two players drafted with the 2017 and 2018 second-round picks that the Washington Capitals traded to the Montreal Canadiens for Lars Eller in June 2016?

If you have never heard of Joni Ikonen or Olivier Rodrigue, you can be forgiven.  Neither player has yet dressed for a professional hockey team in North America.  Ikonen, drafted by the Canadiens in 2017, has spent his entire career in Europe since being drafted.  Rodrigue, drafted by the Edmonton Oilers in 2018, spent two more years in Canadian junior hockey and is currently playing in Europe.  And, to extend the transaction tree, Rodrigue was drafted by Edmonton because Montreal sent that 2018 draft pick to the Oilers for a third and a fifth-round pick in that same draft.  For the record, neither Jordan Harris (currently at Northeastern University) nor Samuel Houde (currently with the Chicoutimi Sagueneens in the QMJHL), taken with those picks by Montreal, have yet played in North American pro hockey.

To say the trade for Eller was a “steal” is quite an understatement.

Meanwhile, in his four seasons in Washington since arriving from Montreal, Eller is 59-79-138, plus-11, in 312 regular season games.  Those 59 goals rank seventh on the team in that span, the 79 assists also rank seventh, and the 138 points are tied for sixth (with Tom Wilson).  He has three shorthanded goals in that span (only Tom Wilson has more with four), and he leads the team in shorthanded points (six).

Last season, Eller was one of five Capitals to appear in all 69 games, his 16 goals ranked sixth on the club, his 23 assists tied for fifth on the team, and his 39 points ranked eighth.  He logged 1,174 total minutes (fourth-most among forwards), 1,448 shifts (second among forwards), and 2:26 in shorthanded ice time per game (third among forwards).

Odd Eller Fact… Perhaps is has something to do with abbreviated seasons.  Twice in Lars Eller’s 11-year career, he finished the season scoring more than half a point per game.  He had 30 points in 46 games in the 48-game 2012-2013 season (0.65 points per game), and he had 39 points in 69 games in last season’s pandemic-shortened schedule (0.57).

Odd Eller Fact II… Perhaps it was something he brought with him from Montreal.  After wearing jersey number “81” with the Canadiens, Eller came to Washington and played in 81 games in each of his first three seasons with the Caps.  Only a pandemic-shortened season kept him from the change of make it four-for-four.

Fearless’ Take…

If you look at the group of 20 centers with a salary cap hit last year between $3.0 and $4.0 million (Eller’s hit is $3.5 million), Eller was tied for fifth in that group in goals (16), sixth in assists (39), and seventh in points (39).  On an individual level for the Caps, his 16 goals last season were eclipsed only once in his career (18 with the Caps in 2017-2018), he tied a career high in assists (23, also recorded in 2018-2019), and he posted a career best in points (39).  To this add his value as a player who can be slotted up and down the lines as circumstances dictate, and he is among the more valuable, not to mention “good value” players for the Caps in recent memory.

Cheerless’ Take…

Twelve games, one goal, four points, minus-6.  If you are keeping score at home, that is Lars Eller’s postseason scoring line over the last two seasons.  This past season, there might have been things weighing on his mind, in addition to the pandemic/bubble issues all players were dealing with.  There was the matter of the upcoming birth of his second child, for which he missed the last three games of the playoff loss to the New York Islanders.  But the last two years stand in stark contrast to the 7-11-18, plus-6 scoring line he had, in addition to his league leading three game-winning goals (including the Cup clincher), in 24 games in 2018, when the Caps won the Cup.  His contributions matter.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 800 career NHL games played (he currently has 754)
• 300 career points (294)
• 50 career penalty minutes (460)
• Top-50 in points in Capitals history (138, needs 19 to pass Matt Niskanen and Robert Picard for 49^th place)
• Top-50 in goals scored in Caps history (59, needs four to pass Andre Burakovsky and Keith Jones for 49^th place)

The Big Question… Can Eller maintain his consistency?

Eller will turn 32 years of age in May.  This is still in the prime of his productive years, but it is also a time when one might start to look for telltale signs of wear and diminishing results.  He has given no indication that he will be suffering this problem any time soon, but the relationship of his presence and production with Caps success makes his continuing to exhibit the consistency and versatility he has in his first four seasons in Washington one of the essential considerations in success for the 2020-2021 squad.  With three years left on his current deal, the club will be counting on him to continue providing the value he has over the first two years of his contract.

In the end…

Lars Eller is unique in Capitals history.  He is the only Capital ever to score a Stanley Cup-clinching goal.  If he did nothing else – if he does nothing else – this alone would likely be enough for him to avoid ever having to pay for a drink in DC again.  But time goes on, and Eller has been as reliable and consistent a player one could imagine in the two years since the Caps won the Cup.  That is a quality the Caps are going to find necessary if they are to make another run at a Stanley Cup. 

Projection: 56 games, 13-21-34, plus-3

Photo: Glenn James/NHLI via Getty Images

 

Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Forwards: Nic Dowd

Nic Dowd

“It is the working man who is the happy man. It is the idle man who is the miserable man.”
-- Benjamin Franklin

Stars are stars.  It is hard to win without one (or two…or more).  But teams without depth, without a cadre of players with a solid work ethic who bring effort every night and make contributions that do not often get a lot of star-wattage attention often go quick and quiet, either dropping out of contention in the regular season or going quick and quiet in the postseason. 

Nic Dowd is such a player for the Washington Capitals.  In two seasons with the club Dowd, who plays most often as a fourth liner, has recorded 15 goals and 37 points in 120 games, while earning a plus-21 rating (not once in 56 games did he post a rating lower than minus-1 and that only nine times).  Not bad numbers for a fourth liner.  Add to this that Dowd is in his chronological prime and carries a salary cap hit of $750,000 this coming season and next before reaching unrestricted free agent status, and he can be looked at as a value player who should cause the Caps little concern at the fourth line center position.

He comes by his success through patience and hard work.  He was the 198^th overall of 211 picks in the 2009 Entry Draft.  It would be almost seven years until he tasted his first NHL action, and he did not play regularly until the 2016-2017 season with the Los Angeles Kings when he was about to turn 26 years of age.

But since he became a regular in an NHL lineup, he has performed well, perhaps outperforming the role to which he is most often assigned – fourth line center.  Three times in the last four seasons, playing in at least 56 games in each, he had 15 or more points (twice with 22 points), and four of his 15 goals with the Caps over the last two seasons have been game-winners.  He has also shown a certain discipline with the puck, credited with 51 takeaways and only 29 giveaways in his two seasons in Washington (22 and 7 last season).

Odd Dowd Fact… Nic Dowd has three shorthanded goals in his career.  All of them were posted last season for the Caps.

Odd Dowd Fact II… Nic Dowd is the all-time leader in games played by natives of Alabama (251).  He was born in Huntsville.

Odd Dowd Fact III… Nic Dowd is only player in Caps history to dress for 50 or more games, average less than 12 minutes per game, post 15 or more points, and have a rating of plus-10 or better twice for the club.

Fearless’ Take…

Last year, among 25 centers 27-31 years of age (Dowd was 29) with salary cap hits of $1.0 million or less, Dowd finished fourth in goals, fourth in assists, and third in points.  His plus-11 rating was best in the group.  Over his two seasons as a Capital, among 72 skaters appearing in at least 50 games and averaging less than 12 minutes per game (Dowd averaged 10:33), Dowd was tied for ninth in goals (15), tied for fifth in assists (22), fifth in points (37), first in plus-minus (plus-21), fourth in shooting percentage (15.2), and was second in game-winning goals (four).

Cheerless’ Take…

All that regular season stuff is nice, cuz, but one point and minus-5 in 15 postseason games over two seasons?  And that 19-game streak without a point from January 7^th through February 23^rd this season did not help when the Caps were in their second-half swoon, either.  The Caps went 9-9-1 in that 19-game pointless streak.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 300 career NHL games (he currently has 251)
• 50 career assists (39)

The Big Question… Is Nic Dowd the “Canary in the Coal Mine?”

In 2017-2018, when the Caps won the Stanley Cup, they had decent scoring punch from the bottom of the forward cohort.  Jay Beagle (22 points), Alex Chiasson (18 points), Chandler Stephenson (18 points), and Devante Smith-Pelly (16) were not just space fillers; they contributed in the offensive end in addition to spelling the scoring lines and providing energy.  Nic Dowd has contributed in a similar fashion over the broader course of his two seasons in Washington, but the trick here is whether he can continue contributing at that level, do so on a consistent basis, and perhaps pull along his linemates to give the Caps another scoring dimension in the context of his fourth line responsibilities.

In the end…

If Alex Ovechkin is the leading man, and Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson, and Tom Wilson the other “stars” in the opening credits, then Nic Dowd is one of those “character actors” that gives a production depth and complexity necessary to make it entertaining and successful.  He is not going to steal the spotlight, but he can make for some memorable moments.

Dowd is a late bloomer who fits comfortably into a fourth line role.  He plays at a high tempo, he can take draws (49.7 percent on 551 draws last season), he can fill minutes on the penalty kill (2:29 per game last season, second highest among Caps forwards), and he can make the occasional offensive contribution, all in 10-12 minutes per game (10:50 per game last season).  Getting that production profile is part of the depth a club needs to be successful in the long run (the regular season) and the short run (the playoffs).  The Caps will be happy indeed if Dowd can keep producing as he has over the first two seasons, more so if he can improve his postseason production.

Projection: 53 games, 6-8-14, even

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

 

Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Forwards: Nicklas Backstrom

Nicklas Backstrom

“There are no Hallmark cards that define the next chapter”
-- Brad Pitt

If all goes well in the 2020-2021 season, even with the abbreviated 56-game schedule, Nicklas Backstrom will leapfrog Peter Bondra and Calle Johansson in games played for the Washington Capitals and become the second player in Caps history to reach the 1,000 games played milestone (Alex Ovechkin has 1,152 games played).

Over his 956-game regular season career, Backstrom long ago established himself as the most consistent, most reliable, most productive center in Caps history.  His long record of excellence was rewarded with a five-year/$46 million contract last January that will take him through the 2024-2025 season when he will be 37 years old.

A player with the consistency Backstrom has displayed over the years would not be expected to have his production fall off a cliff, and Backstrom has not suffered that problem.  However, with such a player, one might look for hints that he is entering another, less productive phase of his career.  The trick is not to read too much into slippages while at the same time not ignoring things that bear watching.  For example…

• Backstrom finished the 2019-2020 season with a minus-1 rating. It was his first minus rating since the 2013-2014 season. Not an awful rating, but outside of the pattern he had over the previous five seasons over which he was a combined plus-46.
• He averaged 0.89 points per game, the second season in three in which his points per game was under 0.90 per game.
• He had 18 power play points.  That came in 61 games of an abbreviated season, but it tied for his lowest career total for a season, the other instance being when he had 18 power play points in 48 games in 2012-2013, another abbreviated season.
• The 2019-2020 season was the first one of Backstrom’s career in which he did not record a game-winning goal, and his two power play goals were a career low.

By themselves, none of these items point to a collapse in production.  But they all do tip in the same direction, which makes his performance going forward one that bears watching.

Odd Backstrom Fact… Since he came into the league in 2007-2008, only two players have recorded points in more wins than Backstrom.  He has at least one point in 409 of the Caps’ 596 wins over that period (tied with Sidney Crosby).  Only Alex Ovechkin (points in 448 wins) and Patrick Kane (points in 426 wins) have been on the score sheet more often in victories.

Odd Backstrom Fact II… Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov are at different points in their career, but going into the 2020-2021 season they are tied in career goals per game (0.25) and career shots on goal per game (2.13).

Fearless’ Take…

If you take out his third ten-game segment from last season, one in which he missed seven games and recorded three points in the three games in which he did play, Backstrom had a reasonably consistent season scoring-wise.  In the other six segments (the season limited to 69 games), he did not record fewer than seven points or more than 11.  His goal scoring improved over the last two-thirds of his game log, from four goals in his first 23 games to eight in his last 38 games.  And, in that “consistency” vein, Backstrom is one of five players since he came into the league in 2007-2008 to post 0.80 points per game in each of the 13 seasons since then.  The others are a “Who’s Who” of NHL’ers – Sidney Crosby, Patrick Kane, Evgeni Malkin, and Alex Ovechkin.  No other NHL player has done it more than 11 times over that span.

Cheerless’ Take…

Boy, that contract.  If you look at centers at capfriendly.com with cap hits between $8.5 and $10.0 million (Backstrom’s is $9.2 million),  it: a) does not look like a value contract, and b) is not going to age well.  Looking at players age 33 years and older (Backstrom will turn 33 in November) who averaged at least 0.80 points per game, only five players did it in five or more seasons since the 2004-2005 lockout – Teemu Selanne (seven times), Ray Whitney (six), Martin St. Louis (six), Jaromir Jagr, and Daniel Alfredsson.  Backstrom certainly is competitive with this group of players, but maintaining his recent level of production consistently over the five-year life of his current contract might not be the way to bet.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 250 career goals (he has 243)
• 250 multi-point games (245)
• 500 career penalty minutes (462)
• 700 career assists (684)
• 20,000 minutes played (18,808)
• Games played as a Capital (he needs 28 to pass Calle Johansson (983) for second place)

The Big Question… Is Nicklas Backstrom’s career at a tipping point?

Players who enjoy long careers rarely, if ever, avoid a drop off in production as the years go by.  The question is when.  After ten years?  Twelve? Fifteen?  Nicklas Backstrom is entering his 14^th NHL season and is coming off one in which he missed eight regular season games to an upper-body injury (he missed a total of ten regular season games over the previous seven seasons) and three playoff games to a concussion.  Hockey is a notoriously close-mouthed sport when it comes to revealing details of injuries, even when they linger.  But one could not help at times to think something was “off” in Backstrom’s performance that might have been health related.  Even if true, though, Backstrom had a good, but not quite “Backstromian” season.  And the difference might have been an important factor in the Capitals’ late season collapse and quick exit from the playoffs.  In a short season, where a good start can be helpful, good health will be something to watch with Backstrom.

In the end…

Evaluating Nicklas Backstrom requires context.  Perhaps he has slipped on the margins over the last couple of seasons, but on the other hand, these things are relative.  Backstrom must be considered a member of a short list of elite centers over the last decade.  Even with the small cracks in his body of work over the last couple of seasons, he remains an upper-echelon center who would require little improvement to return to the point-per-game pace and excellent two-way play that has characterized his career overall.  And here might be the fault line on which Backstrom’s 2020-2021 season will rest.  Was his slippage in 2020-2021 a product of nagging injury, and if so, can he have a healthy season that would allow him to return to the level of play Caps fans have enjoyed for more than a decade?

Projection: 56 games, 14-40-54, plus-5