Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Forwards: Richard Panik

Richard Panik

“New beginnings are often disguised as painful endings.”
– Lao Tzu

When Richard Panik was signed by the Washington Capitals to a four-year, $11 million contract in July 2019, he was going to fill in as best he could a hole among the bottom six forwards when Andre Burakovsky (traded to Colorado) and Brett Connolly (signed by Florida) left.  Burakovsky was an underperforming youngster, while Connolly was a somewhat one-dimensional goal scoring winger.  Panik was thought of as more of a two-way, perhaps more “responsible” sort of forward with some offensive upside who would add discipline and consistency to what was a somewhat disappointing bottom six in 2018-2019.

It did not work out that way, at least not at the start of the 2019-2020 season.  Panik’s offense to start the season was non-existent.  In his first nine games he registered only seven shots on goal, three times failing to record one.  He did not have a point in his first dozen games, had only four points in his first 28 games (3-1-4).  He was a plu-s6 over those 28 games, though, so it was not an entirely lost cause at that point.

Persistence, patience, or simply better hockey luck paid off for Panik after those difficult first 28 games. He was a quite effective player over his last 31 games, going 6-12-18, plus-10, and shooting 18.8 percent in 11 minutes and change in ice time per night (having 32 shots in 31 games might have merited improvement, but still).  It did not move the needle much in terms of wins and losses, though.  Over those last 31 games, the Caps were 8-5-2 in 15 games in which Panik recorded at least one point, 7-8-1 in 16 games in which he did not.

Odd Panik Fact… Richard Panik spread his scoring around last season.  His 22 points were recorded against 16 different teams.  The only team against which he scored as many as three points was Pittsburgh (a goal and two assists).

Odd Panik Fact II… Last season was the first in which Panik dressed for more than 30 games and had more giveaways (29) than takeaways (21) since the 2013-2014 season, when he had 16 takeaways and 23 giveaways in 50 games for Tampa Bay.

Fearless’ Take…

When Richard Panik closed his first season with the Caps with a rush on the offensive side of the puck, he salvaged a season that looked disastrous early, one that ultimately looked a little better than his career per-82-game numbers.  As it was, he finished eighth in goals among forwards, ninth in both assists and points.  Third line numbers.  His plus-10 rating was second-best on the team over his last 31 games (Michal Kempny: plus-11).  Over that same span, his 18.8 shooting percentage was topped only by Alex Ovechkin (19.4) and T.J. Oshie (20.3).  His six even strength goals over those 31 games were sixth on the team, while his 18 even strength points were second only to Ovechkin (23).  Only Ovechkin had more first goals (five) than Panik (two). 

Cheerless’ Take…

Those last 31 games are nice, cuz, but the season was 69 games long.  And Panik’s postseason was hardly unicorns and accordions.  He had one goal and one point in eight games with a minus-2 rating.  Then again, that one goal was one more than fellow bottom-six forwards Ilya Kovalchuk, Carl Hagelin, Garnet Hathaway, Nic Dowd, and Lars Eller.  Still, Panik had a good “part of a season,” and that was not really good enough for the Caps last season.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 500 career NHL games (he currently has 469)
• 100 career goals (84)
• 200 career points (181)
• 100 games as a Capital (59)

The Big Question… Which Richard Panik will step up (or step back) this season?

Richard Panik’s 2019-2020 season was one in three distinct parts, a soggy start and playoff finish with a meaty middle.  Sounds like a sandwich you really don’t want to eat.  But it begs the question of which Panik was the most representative of his value to the club and whether he can sustain a level of performance sufficient to make the Caps’ season successful.  The second half of his regular season could be either a recovery from a poor “get acquainted” period with his new team, or it could be an outlier.  It did allow him to post a regular season in goals-assists-points per game (0.15-0.22-0.37) that was only slightly off his career goals-assists-points per game going into the season (0.18-0.20-0.38).  What complicates the issue going forward is Panik’s $2.75 million cap hit through the 2022-2023 season.  That number is almost twice that of combined cap hits this season of two forwards the Caps added over the last year, Daniel Sprong ($725,000) and Conor Sheary ($735,000).  With the Caps sitting at a projected cap hit of $85.1 million, even the long term injury reserve cushion they have for Michal Kempny and Henrik Lundqvist (combined $4.0 million this season) leaves Panik in a bit of a precarious situation.

In the end…

High end talent on an NHL roster is a necessary element to success.  However, there is considerable talent among the teams with serious Stanley Cup ambitions, which means that those skilled players are not necessarily a sufficient element of success.  Bottom-six/third pair defense that undergird that skill is often the added element that teams need for that final push.  The Caps had it in 2017-2018, when they won the Stanley Cup.  They did not have it the past two seasons when they finished in disappointing fashion with first-round playoff exits.  The Caps can make the playoffs without significant contributions from the bottom-six forwards (but this is by no means certain).  They almost certainly cannot go deep in the postseason without their contributions, and Richard Panik needs to be part of that contribution.

Projection: 52 games, 7-11-18, plus-9

Photo: Harry How/Getty Images

Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Forwards: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin

“Never forget that what becomes timeless was once truly new.”
-- Nicolas Ghesquiere

 

The longer Alex Ovechkin plays for the Washington Capitals, the more one might be inclined to think back to the beginning.  That opening night against the Columbus Blue Jackets, coached by Gerard Gallant, who would be on the opposite bench almost 13 years later when the Ovechkin and the Capitals won their first Stanley Cup in Las Vegas.  That first shift, when 40 seconds in, he plastered defenseman Radoslav Suchý into the glass behind the Columbus net, popping out a stanchion holding the glass in place and delaying the game for several minutes while repairs were made.  That moment in the eighth minute of the second period when he took a pass from Dainius Zubrus between the tops of the circles and one-timed the puck past goalie Pascal Leclaire for his first NHL goal.

Well, here we are more than 15 years, more than 700 goals, more than 1,100 games later, and Alex Ovechkin continues to be not an elite goal scorer, but the elite goal scorer in the NHL.  If anything, he is improving with age.  Consider that in 2016-2017 he posted 33 goals in 82 games, averaging 0.40 goals per game.  The following season it was 49 goals in 82 games (0.60), and then it was 51 goals in 81 games in 2018-2019 (0.63).  Last season it was 48 goals in 68 games, his 0.71 goals per game his highest since 2008-2008 when, as a 23-year old, he had 56 goals in 79 games (0.71).

One noteworthy aspect of his goal scoring last season was the improvement in production as the season wore on.  Yes, he did average 0.70 goals per game in five of his seven ten-game splits, but breaking it down a different way, he averaged 0.60 goals per game over his first 25 games, but he averaged 0.77 goals per game over his last 43 games (a 63-goal pace over 82 games).

Odd Ovechkin Fact… If only his even-strength goals were counted, Alex Ovechkin would still rank second in the NHL (442 goals) in the NHL since he came into the league, and he would be only 20 behind Sidney Crosby.

Odd Ovechkin Fact II… Since the NHL began recording missed shots in 2005-2006, Ovechkin has precisely 1,000 more missed shots (2,423) than the second-place player on the list (Jeff Carter: 1,423).

Fearless’ Take…

Anyone who works with data knows there are an almost unlimited number of ways a large enough body of data can be sliced, diced, and massaged to make a point.  So let’s take a shot at this. It’s hard to compare eras in any sport, and hockey is no exception.  Players are bigger, faster, better conditioned, with the technology of equipment maximized to enhance performance.  Alex Ovechkin, 6’3”/235 pounds, using a state of the art stick, wearing lighter equipment than did Wayne Gretzky, 6’/185 pounds, using (for the most part) a wooden stick.  But players can be compared to their own cohorts to get a feeling for how they dominated their peers. 

Looking at the first 15 years of Ovechkin’s and Gretzky’s careers, Gretzky had 803 goals in 1,125 games to 706 goals in 1,152 games for Ovechkin.  Score one for Gretzky on raw numbers.  And, Gretzky averaged 0.71 goals per game over his first 15 years to 0.61 for Ovechkin.  But here is the thing.  Ovechkin was a more dominating force among his cohort.  Over his first 15 seasons, his 706 goals were 244 more than the second-place player on the list over that span (Sidney Crosby: 462), 52.8 percent more than Crosby.  Over Gretzky’s first 15 years, he posted 186 more goals than the second-place player over that span (Mike Gartner: 617), 30.1 percent more.  And, looking at players who appeared in at least 500 games over Ovechkin’s and Gretzky’s respective 15-year spans, Ovechkin has a 0.61 to 0.53 edge in goals per game over the second-place player (Steven Stamkos), while Gretzky (0.71) is no better than fourth among his cohort (Mario Lemieux: 0.82; Brett Hull: 0.76; Mike Bossy: 0.75).  Gretzky, at the top of his game, might have been more dominant, but it would be hard to find a player in any era as dominant in goal scoring as Alex Ovechkin has been over 15 years.

Cheerless’ Take…

Yeah, yeah, Ovechkin scores goals, water is wet.  But as time goes on, it is more and more becoming the only dimension to his game.  There are 24 instances in NHL history in which a player posted 45 or more goals and 30 or fewer assists.  Alex Ovechkin has four of them (no one else has more than two), and all four were recorded over the last seven seasons.  Last year, Ovechkin became the first player in NHL history to record at least 45 goals (48) and fewer than 20 assists (19).  Remember, this is a player who four times in his career recorded more than 50 assists (but none since 2010-2011).

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 16^th 30-goal season (would break tie with Jaromir Jagr for second all-time; Mike Gartner: 17)
• 12^th 40-goal season (would tie Wayne Gretzky for most all-time)
• 16^th 30-goal season in first 16 seasons in NHL (would first player to achieve this feat; Jagr and Gartner did it 15 times in first 16 seasons in NHL)
• 1^st all-time in power play goals (he currently has 260, needs 15 to pass Dave Andreychuk (274))
• 600 career assists (572)
• 1,300 career points (1,278)
• 500 career power play points (260-222-482)
• He needs three goals to take over seventh-place all time in goals (Mike Gartner: 708)… 12 goals to take over sixth-place (Phil Esposito: 717)…26 goals to take over fifth-place (Marcel Dionne (731)… 36 goals to take over fourth-place (Brett Hull: 741)
• He needs two empty-net goals to pass Marian Hossa (40) for second-place all time (Wayne Gretzky: 56)

The Big Question… Will Alex Ovechkin ever get old?

That question has more than one layer.  At the most superficial of them, watching him on a rush, or firing a one-timer, or punishing an opponent with a big hit never gets old.  But on another level, age seems to have had little effect on Ovechkin’s ability to score goals.  Since turning 30 years old, Ovechkin has 231 goals.  Only one player in NHL history has more goals in five seasons starting with his 30-year old season (Phil Esposito had 253 goals from 1972-1973 through 1976-1977).

But 35-years old might be a different matter.  Eighteen players have combined for 25 instances of scoring 35 or more goals starting with their 35-year old season.  Only five of those players (Teemu Selanne (twice), Brendan Shanahan, Bill Guerin, Joe Sakic, and Daniel Alfredsson) did it since the 2004-2005 lockout.

On the other hand, only once in the last eight full seasons has Ovechkin posted fewer than 35 goals, and in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season he still managed 32 goals (league leader) in 48 games.  Even with a 56-game schedule ahead this season, betting on Ovechkin failing to hit the 35-goal mark (a 51-goal pace over 82 games) might be a fool’s errand.

In the end…

Fifteen years into the career of Alex Ovechkin, one must dig deep to find a superlative that has not been uttered about his performance on the ice.  He is one of the most skilled, most entertaining, most fun to watch players to have pulled on a sweater in the NHL.  Even at age 35, with his hair having turned mostly gray, and having settled down into a family life, he seems as energetic and as thrilled at his own and his teammates’ successes as he was back in the fall of 2005 when he first stepped on the ice for the Caps.  He is far closer to the end of his NHL career than he is to its beginning, but time has not diminished his prodigious goal scoring skill or dimmed his infectious personality.  In that respect, he is as “timeless” a player as exists in the NHL, and it is the good fortune of Capitals Nation to see him adding triumphs to his amazing career.

Projection: 55 games, 35-20-55, plus-1

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Forwards: T.J. Oshie

T.J. Oshie

“There is no terror in the bang, only in the anticipation of it.”
-- Alfred Hitchcock

One cannot help but think we have been here before, at the dawn of a new season wondering if a player to whom fans have become attached will be watching him for his last turn around the league as a Washington Capital.  Last season, it was Braden Holtby that Caps fans wondered about, if he was playing his final season as a Capital with his contract about to expire and his likely price tag for renewal exceeding what the Caps were able (or perhaps willing) to pay.

This year, it is T.J. Oshie about whom Caps fans might wonder.  It might be for a different reason, and the attachments to Oshie might be a different sort than those fans had with Holtby, but here we are once more.  With Holtby, it was an expiring contract that fans anticipated would bring his tenure with the Caps to an end.  With Oshie, it is the new entry in the NHL, the Seattle Kraken, who are widely believed to have Oshie on their radar as a possible expansion draft selection, perhaps even the team's first captain.  Holtby was a home-grown product, drafted by the Caps, developed by the Caps, and who eventually became arguably the best goaltender in team history.  Oshie was drafted by a different franchise (St. Louis), grew up with a different fan base, built a solid resume in a different uniform before arriving in Washington.

But entering his sixth, and perhaps final season in Washington, Oshie is among the most beloved players of this, or any other era of Capitals hockey.  His hard-nosed style in which he always seems to be punching up in weight class, his skill, his fearless approach to the game, and his community service  combine to make him a favorite in Capitals Nation.

It did not hurt that he found a level in his game in Washington he did not have in St. Louis.  In seven seasons with the Blues, Oshie topped 20 goals only once (21 in 2013-2014).  In five seasons in Washington, he has failed to reach 20 goals only once with (18 in 2017-2018).  And he made up for that shortcoming that season by scoring a career-high eight postseason goals in 24 games as the Caps went on to win the Stanley Cup.

Odd Oshie Fact… T.J. Oshie was an inconsiderate guest in 2019-2020.  In 18 games in which he recorded a point on the road, the Caps were 16-2-0.

Odd Oshie Fact II… Oshie did not record a shot on goal in 11 games last season.  The Caps won ten of them (10-1-0).  While at the other end, he recorded four or more shots in nine games, and the Caps lost five of them (4-4-1).

Fearless’ Take…

Oshie comes into the 2020-2021 season having posted his fourth 25-plus goal season (26) in five years with the Caps.  Those four 25-plus goal seasons already rank Oshie tied for eighth on the all-time list of Caps with 25-goal seasons (with Dennis Maruk).  It might be only an abbreviated schedule that will keep him from reaching the top five in club history in that category this season, tied with the likes of Alexander Semin, Bob Carpenter, and Dave Christian.  Oshie’s improved goal production has been a product of uncommon shooting efficiency.  In his five seasons with the Caps, Oshie has a 17.5 shooting percentage, tied for second (with Leon Draisaitl) among 293 skaters recording at least 500 shots on goal.  Only Mark Scheifele has been better (17.8 percent).

Cheerless’ Take…

T.J. Oshie dressed for all 69 games for the Caps last season.  What is noteworthy about that is it is the first instance in Oshie’s 12-year NHL career in which he dressed for every one of his team’s games.  He missed 37 games over his first four seasons with Washington.  Oshie is as tough as they come, and his ability to produce those four 25-goal seasons with the Caps is more amazing in the context of the games missed and any lingering effects of injury.  But he also just turned 34 years of age, too. 

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 600 career points (he currently has 567)
• 100 career power play assists (99)
• 400 games played as a Capital (360)
• 300 points as a Capital (257)
• Top-20 in goals scored as a Capital (128; needs two to pass Alan Haworth (129) for 20^th place)

The Big Question… Can T.J. Oshie maintain the pace?

T.J. Oshie found his goal scoring touch in Washington.  His 128 goals in five seasons in Washington are second only to Alex Ovechkin with the club over that span (231).  But the question is, having turned 34 years old, does Oshie still have that touch?  There are five active players in the NHL with at least one 25-goal season after turning 34 (Patrick Marleau (four), Zach Parise (two), Patrice Bergeron, Joe Pavelski, and Alex Ovechkin).  In an abbreviated season, getting to 25 would be a reach, but can Oshie score at that pace (17 goals in a 56-game season)?  Oshie has been a consistently efficient shooter with the Caps (17.5 shooting percentage over five seasons), and he has been consistent in producing shots (2.03 shots per game over five seasons).  Until he doesn’t do it (and age will take care of that, as it does for all players), the only thing that would seem to keep Oshie from maintaining his scoring pace is his ability to stay in the lineup.

In the end…

T.J. Oshie is part of one of the stranger trades in Caps history.  He was obtained from the St. Louis Blues in July 2015 for winger Troy Brouwer, goalie Pheonix Copley, and a 2016 third-round draft pick.  Copley ended up coming back to the Caps (part of the Kevin Shattenkirk trade in February 2017), as did that third round pick in 2016 (with which the Caps took forward Garrett Pilon).  Of those mentioned, only Oshie remains in the NHL at the moment (Copley is in the minors, and Brouwer is an unsigned free agent).

But whether here or in St. Louis, Oshie proved himself to be a productive player on the ice and a fan favorite off it, at times inspiring rather intense feelings.  As this season unfolds, one cannot help but wonder if the reaction of a young fan in St. Louis upon his departure from the Blues might be a feeling shared by Caps fans after this season.  But in the meantime, Oshie has been, and continues to be a pleasure to watch.

Projection: 54 games, 18-19-37, plus-3

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Forwards: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Evgeny Kuznetsov

"Big results require big ambitions.”
-- Heraclitus

 

We are ten years out from the year in which Evgeny Kuznetsov was drafted by the Washington Capitals.  Taken 26^th overall in that draft – a rather good one it turns out -- Kuznetsov has outperformed his draft by quite a bit.  He ranks 13^th in goals scored (120), fourth in assists (269), and sixth in points (389).  His plus-61 rating ranks sixth in his draft class.  All this while tied for 18^th in games played (479, tied with former teammate Radko Gudas). 

But something is off about Kuznetsov.  After posting career highs in goals (27) and points (83) in 2017-2018, a season he capped with 12 goals, 20 assists (to lead the league) and 32 points (also a league-leading total) in the Caps’ Stanley Cup playoff run, he dropped to 21 goals and 72 points in 2018-2019, and again to 19 goals and 52 points in last year’s abbreviated season.

2019-2020 was an odd season for Kuznetsov, who got off to a fine start with 11 goals and 28 points in his first 25 games, along with a plus-9 rating.  It was hardly a coincidence that the Caps went 17-4-4 in those 25 games.  Then, as they say, things took a turn.  He went 1-5-6, minus-5, over his next 11 games, although his sluggish performance was not yet reflected in the Caps record, the team going 8-3-0 over those 11 games.

Kuznetsov had a brief rebound, going 4-4-8, plus-1, in six games from December 28^th through January 8^th, but the team was just 3-3-0.  His performance deteriorated from there, going 3-7-10, minus-7, over his last 21 games of the regular season, while the team was going 10-8-3 in its limp to the finish.

Odd Kuznetsov Fact… Evgeny Kuznetsov tied for 139^th in the league in power play assists last season with six.  That was his lowest total of power play assists since he had two in 17 games in 2013-2014, his first NHL season.

Odd Kuznetsov Fact II… None of Kuznetsov’s 19 goals last season were game-winners, the first time he went a season without one since his first year with the Caps in 2013-2014 (1`7 games).

Fearless’ Take…

For his confounding finish to the regular season, Kuznetsov had a decent postseason.  Not a “2018” level of performance, but he did finish with three goals in eight games (tied for second on the team), five points (tied for second), posted four power play points (tied for first), recorded 20 shots on goal (second), and had a 15.0 shooting percentage (second among Caps recording at least five shots on goal).

Cheerless’ Take…

The thing that kind of jumps up off the score sheet with Kuznetsov is that he stopped shooting the puck, or at least getting shots on goal.  He had 61 shots on goal in his first 24 games (2.54 per game), over which he had 11 goals (18.0 shooting percentage).  But over his last 39 games he had only 68 shots on goal (1.74 per game), a reduction of about a third on a per-game basis.  It was not even a case of shot attempts not getting to the net.  Over those first 24 games he had nine shots blocked and 14 misses, 0.96 shot attempts per game not getting to the net.  Over those last 39 games he had seven attempts blocked and 22 misses, just 0.74 attempts per game not getting to the net.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 500 career NHL games played (he currently has 479)
• 300 career assists (269)
• 400 career points (389)
• Top-30 in games played for the Capitals (needs 12 games to pass Jason Chimera for 30^th place)
• Top-20 in goals scored as a Capital (needs ten to pass Alan Haworth 129) for 20^th place; if T.J. Oshie (128 goals with the Caps) gets there first, he would need 14 goals this season to pass Brooks Laich (133))
• 50-point seasons in team history (he has five; a sixth would tie him with Dave Christian and Michal Pivonka for seventh place)

The Big Question… Can Evgeny Kuznetsov find the spark that made him such an offensive force in 2017-2018?

There is just no delicate way of putting this.  Alex Ovechkin is the star, Nicklas Backstrom is the perennial nominee for the Oscar as best supporting actor, but the Caps just are not going to win a second Stanley Cup if Evgeny Kuznetsov has a 2020-2021 season that looks like his two most recent seasons.  Kuznetsov was on a career arc earlier in his career that appeared to put him in position to take a place among the truly elite centers in the game.  Even a blip in his progress in 2016-2017 (19-40-59 in 82 games after going 20-57-77 in 82 games the previous year) was followed by his career year in 2017-2018 (27-56-83 in 79 games and that memorable 12-20-32 scoring run in 24 playoff games).

At 28 years of age, Kuznetsov is in the chronological prime of his career.  He is a good, if not uncommonly prolific goal scorer (averaging about a quarter goal per game over his career), but he is a gifted playmaker and elusive skater who can create on the fly like few in the league can.  It suggests a player who, while having averaged 0.81 points per game over his seven-year career, has it in him to be closer to a point-per-game player (three times in the past five seasons he averaged more than 0.90 points per game).

In the end…

The Washington Capitals have a considerable investment in Evgeny Kuznetsov.  He has five more years at a $7.8 million cap hit per year on his contract, which also includes a modified no-trade clause (source: capfriendly.com).  And if one looks at the cohort of centers with a cap hit between $7.0 and $8.5 million, he is in a very competitive mix with 11 other players.  Relative to those other centers, particularly in the under-30 group of them (Kuznetsov is 28 years old), his performance, at least his recent performance, does not make him stand out in the crowd.

But he can stand out in the crowd, and not just because he has a natural flair that makes him an entertaining player.  He has the whole spectrum of skills – a deceptively nasty shot, uncommon vision, superior skating skills in open ice and in close quarters, excellent puckhandling skills, soft hands to make deft passes.  The extent to which he can assemble these talents into something resembling his 2017-2018 season will be one of the most important factors influencing just how far the Caps can go this season.

Projection: 55 games, 18-34-52, plus-3

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Forwards: Garnet Hathaway

Garnet Hathaway

“Garnet: a group of silicate minerals used as gemstones and abrasives. As a birthstone (January), it is said to bring love, luck, health, loyalty and friendship.”

Undrafted, spent four years in college hockey, signed to a minor league contract as a free agent, did not get into his first NHL game until the age of 24, did not become a regular in an NHL lineup until age 26, built a career around hard minutes doing the dirty jobs – working the corners, getting under opponents’ skin, killing penalties – while providing occasional offense.  It is the profile of a “good story,” a player who climb a long and steep hill to stake his claim to an NHL position.

When Garnet Hathaway was signed by the Washington Capitals as a free agent in July 2019, fans might not have known what they were getting, he having toiled out west with the Calgary Flames in his first four NHL seasons.  The player who came to Washington was the sort who would record ten or so goals per 82 games, a similar number of assists, log a substantial number of penalty minutes by being as abrasive as the meaning of his first name suggests, and generally playing 10-12 hard minutes a night. 

And that is just what Caps fans saw in Hathaway in his first season in Washington – nine goals and 16 points in 66 games, 79 penalty minutes (25 of those earned in five fights), and 10:47 of ice time a night (1:18 a game on the penalty kill).  Those minutes were better the more he logged.  Washington was 9-0-0 in games in which Hathaway skated at least 13 minutes (“leading” effects probably coming into play when a team is either trying to protect a lead or have enough of one to roll four lines and not have scorers forced into more minutes), 19-6-1 in 26 games in which he logged at least 11 minutes.

Odd Hathaway Fact… Garnet Hathaway was one of four players in the NHL last season to play in at least 50 games, record at least 15 points, post a rating of plus-5 or better, and do it playing less than 12 minutes per game.  Odder still, two of the other three were also Capitals (Richard Panik and Nic Dowd; Minnesota’s Ryan Donato was the other).

Odd Hathaway Fact II… Hathaway is the all-time leading NHL career goal scorer (25) among players born in Maine.  He was born in Kennebunkport.

Fearless’ Take…

Scoring was not particularly important with respect to Hathaway’s contributions.  The Caps were just 4-2-2 in games in which he scored a goal, 9-4-2 in games in which he had a point.  Physical engagement was another story.  Washington was 4-1-0 in the five games in which he had a fighting major, 23-10-2 in the 35 games in which he was credited with three of more hits.

Cheerless’ Take…

Garnet Hathaway has appeared in 13 postseason games, eight for the Caps, and is still looking for his first playoff point.  The Caps missed getting production from their bottom six forwards in their last two trips to the postseason, and this is going to be a sticking point with respect to any Capital bottom six forward when looking at his value.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 250 career NHL games played (he currently has 241)
• 300 career penalty minutes (298)
• 3,000 career minutes played (2,598)

The Big Question… Does Garnet Hathaway have another level of offense in him?

Since becoming a regular with the Calgary Flames in 2017-2018, Garnet Hathaway has been a “teen” sort of scorer – 13 points in 2017-2018, 19 points the following season, and 16 points with the Caps last season.  But those 16 points came in just 66 games, which would have put him on a pace for his first career 20-point season over 82 games.  He was on a similar pace in his last season in Calgary before coming to Washington. Seeing as how Hathaway is something of a late arriver to regular play in the NHL, it is not unreasonable to wonder if he does not have a little more offense to provide, say, in the 25-point range.  If there is a career arc to think of in comparison, it might be that of jay Beagle, who became a regular in his mid-20’s, spent a couple of years with modest point totals, and then became a 25-30 point player per 82 games in his later years with the Caps, into his 30’s.

In the end…

Making a living as a “grinder” getting bottom-six minutes is a hard way to make a living.  The job is hard and, frankly, the players are more replaceable than stars.  Since the NHL started keeping time on ice statistics in 1997-1998, 29 forwards have appeared in at least 500 games while averaging less than 12 minutes a game.  Garnet Hathaway is not quite half-way there (241 games), so on one level he might be considered in the “prime” of his abrasive self as an NHL player.  But what bears watching is whether the kinds of contributions he can make in the regular season translate to the postseason, where his offense has been absent. 

Hathaway is a player that fans seem to instinctively root for, a hard worker who comes to the aid of teammates and rarely, if ever takes a night off.  Add to that his contributions to the community through his “Hath’s Heroes” effort, and one might believe the Caps have a “gem” as well as an abrasive asset on their roster.

Projection: 54 games, 8-9-17, plus-4

Washington Capitals 2020-2021 Previews -- Forwards: Carl Hagelin

Carl Hagelin

“When the enemy gives you an opening be swift as a hare and he will be unable to withstand you.”
― Sun Tzu

 

When last we looked in on Carl Hagelin, he was wrapping up a disappointing postseason in Game 5 of the opening round series against the New York Islanders.  No goals, no assists, one shot on goal, two shot attempts, no hits, no takeaways, and he was on ice for the first Islander power play of the game on which the Isles scored, the first goal in a 4-0 series-clinching win.  He did this in 9:28 of ice time, his lowest ice time in the playoffs as a Capital and only the sixth time in 136 postseason games that he skated less than ten minutes.

That game, hardly alone in its disappointing performance among Capitals, brought to an end a disappointing postseason for Hagelin, who finished 0-1-1, minus-4, in eight games.  In a way, that result might have been expected, given that he finished the 2019 playoffs 0-1-1, minus-1, in seven postseason games.  But on another level, it was surprising.  Hagelin was hot as a bonfire over the last stretch of the 2019-2020 regular season, going 7-9-16, plus-7, in his last 22 games.  But then again, he closed with a rush in the 2018-2019 regular season with the Caps, too (3-8-11, plus-9, in his last 16 games).

Hagelin’s profile from last season is something of the “sampler” menu.  He had eight goals and 25 points, decent numbers for a forward getting largely fourth line minutes.  Never a great shooter in terms of efficiency, he did post a 7.5 shooting percentage, which was his best since a 7.9 mark in 2015-2016 split between stints in Anaheim and Pittsburgh.  His plus-12 rating was his best personal mark since a plus-18 with the New York Rangers in 2014-2015 and was second-best on the team among forwards (Richard Panik: plus-16).  Two of his eight goals were game-winners.  He averaged 2:55 in shorthanded ice time per game, second on the team and first among forwards.  His three shorthanded points (one goal, two assists) tied Nic Dowd for the team lead.

Odd Hagelin Fact… In nine NHL seasons, Carl Hagelin has never finished with a minus rating (his lowest was minus-7 in 2018-2019, combined in stints with Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, and Washington).

Odd Hagelin Fact II… In nine NHL seasons, Carl Hagelin has never recorded a power play assist (he does, however, have two power play goals).

Fearless’ Take…

Skill can be enhanced and used effectively with coaching.  Hard work can be nurtured by coaching.  But speed?  For the most part, a skater brings that to the table.  Carl Hagelin remains one of the fastest skaters in the league, and he seems to take pride in his defensive skiils, a combination of attributes that Caps fans hope will continue to make him a formidable penalty killer.  The Caps have a lot of skill and talent in the offensive end of the ice, among both the forwards and defensemen.  But a team with Stanley Cup aspirations cannot leave the other end of the ice to indifference, and this is where Hagelin will continue to be valuable.

Cheerless’ Take…

Speed on skates has a shelf life cuz, just like a pitcher’s 98-mile and hour fast ball or a wide receiver’s 4.1 40-yard dash time.  Hagelin turned 32 in August.  How much high-octane speed does he have left in his tank?  Being 32 isn’t a “best-used-by” date, but he is just another one of several Capitals who bear close watching this season for cracks in the best parts of his game.  Not being an especially efficient offensive player, whatever cracks he develops will be magnified.

Potential Milestones to Reach in 2020-2021:

• 300 career points (he currently has 266)
• 10,000 career minutes played (9,337)
• 100 games played as a Capital (78)

The Big Question… Carl Hagelin has had fast finishes the last two regular seasons, but can he put together a fast start?

Last season, Carl Hagelin started the year without a goal in his first 27 games (on 39 shots).  He had one in his first 36 games (on 58 shots – 1.7 percent).  In 2018-2019 he started the sea with one goal in his first 26 games (on 43 shots – 2.3 percent).  See a pattern?  In a 56-game season, a start like this just is not going to be conducive to team success.  On the other hand, if you look at things from a slightly different angle, they are not quite as bad.  In games after January 13th (the start date for this coming season), he had four goals in 33 games in 2018-2019, and last season he had seven goals in 23 games starting on January 13th. 

In the end…

In evaluating bottom six forwards, be mindful of expectations and criteria for success.  A bottom six forward should not be evaluated on (or at least only) their offensive contributions.  Getting timely contributions are important contributors to team success, but the word “prolific” is not going to be attached to their scouting report insofar as their goal scoring or playmaking is concerned.  The bottom six forward needs to have a varied range of skills or needs to be especially adept at skills that the casual fan might not immediately appreciate. 

Carl Hagelin is primarily a defensive specialist with penalty killing skills, able to make opponents pay for a weak or lackadaisical moment on their power play.  He has breakaway speed that can stretch a defense or keep them honest in not getting too deep in the offensive zone.  He is not, and never has been a 20-goal scorer (17 is his high), he is not a 40-point player (39 is his career-best).  He does not get power play time.  But he does provide timely contributions (26 of his 101 career goals are game-winners), and he does have the kind off game that provides a certain balance with the more offensively-gifted members of the roster.  And is not as if he was a stiff last season, despite the slow start.  His 2019-2020 scoring line was 11-24-35, plus-17, on an 82-game basis.  Hagelin’s ability produce in such fashion, not to mention have a better start than he has had the past two seasons, is going to be an important factor in what success the Caps have this season.

Projection: 55 games, 7-15-22, plus-10

Photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images