Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 12

Week 12 saw the Washington Capitals return to something resembling normalcy after a 10-day hiatus brought on by COVID-related issues that forced a league-wide pause until after the Christmas break.  It was a successful week for the Caps who rebounded from a rare losing week (ok, it was one game, one loss).  The Caps wrapped up the week in a tie with Carolina and Tampa Bay for the league lead in standings points earned (47).

Record (2-0-0)

Week 12 was the tenth winning week this season, the seventh week in which the Caps did not lose a game in regulation and the second time they did not lose a game in any situations, regulation or overtime.  The Caps have been successful at putting together winning mini-streaks and avoiding losing min-streaks.  The two wins represented the sixth time this season that the Caps put together consecutive wins or more.  They have yet to lose consecutive games in regulation, have had only two instances of consecutive losses of any type, and have a single three-game losing streak (0-2-1 to start November).  The Caps have built a solid record on the basis of consistency and perseverance, not streaky play.

Offense: 4.00 / game (season: 3.45 / T-5th)

Six Capitals shared the eight goals scored for the week, another indicator of balance and consistency.  Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov each had a pair of goals to lead the team.  Thirteen Caps had points, six of them with multi-point weeks, led by John Carlson with five points (1-4-5).  Carlson finished the week second among defensemen in points (31, behind only Victor Hedman’s 34), and he was tied for fifth in goals scored (seven).  Carlson and Florida’s Aaron Ekblad were the only defensemen to finish the week with at least five goals, at least 25 points, and rating of plus-10 or better for the season. 

Overall, the Caps finished the week with 31 of 32 skaters to dress this season having recorded at least one point.  Only Alex Alexeyev, who has appeared in only one game, was without a point. Although the Caps did not welcome any new members to the goal scoring ledger in Week 12, they still have 23 different skaters with at least one goal.

Defense: 2.00 / game (season: 2.55 / 5th)

There is little mystery about how the Caps held opponents to four goals in two games.  The allowed only 40 shots on goal, the 20.0 shots per game being fewest allowed in the league for the week.  The Caps have allowed 25 or fewer shots on goal 12 times so far this season, including their last three games through Week 12. 

Unfortunately for Dmitry Orlov, he happened to be on ice for three of the four even strength goals against, most for the week for the Caps.  On the encouraging side, the Caps had scoring forwards – Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and T.J. Oshie – finished the week having been on ice for no even strength goals against.

The Caps allowed only 64 shot attempts at 5-on-5, second lowest in the league among teams playing two games (Carolina: 54).  It left the Caps a plus-107 in shot attempts, for and against, at 5-on-5 for the season through Week 12.

Goaltending: 2.00 / .900 (season: 2.46 / .912 / 4 shutouts)

Ilya Samsonov got the call in both games in Week 12, and he did what he had to do – he won.  He did not suffer a heavy workload, which can sometimes be difficult on a goalie, especially young ones.  He finished the week as the only one of 20 goalies with ten or more wins to have two losses in regulation.  That he should finish the week with a .900 save percentage and win both games is not unusual.  In his 13 wins through 12 weeks, he finished with a save percentage under .900 six times.

Power Play: 1-for-9 / 11.1 percent (season: 15.2 percent / 28th).

The suckitude continues.  After going 1-for-9 for the week, the Caps are 2-for-30 in their last 11 games (6.7 percent), and they have not had a multiple power play goal game since October 27^th, when they had 2 in a 3-2 overtime loss to Detroit.  This week’s disappointment was coming up small on nine power play chances in two games, fourth in the league for the week in power play chances per game (4.50).

Penalty Killing: 7-for-7 / 100.0 percent (season: 82.6 percent / 9th)

At least half of the special teams complement is performing.  One does not like seeing seven opportunities allowed, but fans will take a perfect week on the penalty kill under any circumstances.  It was a bit unusual for the Caps to allow as many chances as they did, still finishing the week with 2.61 shorthanded situations faced per game, fifth-fewest in the league.  On the other hand, the chances allowed have creeped up lately, the Caps allowing 19 power plays against over their last five games after a four-game run in which they did not face more than one shorthanded situation.  The Caps have had ten games through 12 weeks in which they allowed one or no power play chances to opponents.

Faceoffs: 42-for-105 / 40.0 percent (45.3 percent / 32nd)

Well, here we are…dead last in the league.  We will not play this broken record again only to say that but for the sake of Nic Dowd (16-for-28 this week (57.1 percent) and 143-for-284 this season (50.4 percent, the only Cap with more than 50 draws taken over 50 percent), this would be an historically bad season in the circle.  Since 1997-1998, this year’s club has the worst faceoff winning percentage of any edition of the Caps (45.3 percent).

Goals by Period

The defense started and ended well, allowing no goals in either the first or third periods, which makes the four goals in second periods stand out a bit more.  Still, good starts and good finishes are always a good thing.  Those no goals allowed by the Caps in first periods was hardly out of the ordinary.  They allowed only 17 first period goals through Week 12, fourth-fewest in the league.  On the other end, the 42 goals scored by the Caps in third periods ranked tied for third after 12 weeks of the season.

Year-over-Year

The year-over-year records are almost indistinguishable, but this year’s team appears to be more stingy on defense with nine fewer goals allowed through 33 games, 29 fewer shots on goal allowed, and 19 fewer shot attempts at 5-on-5 allowed.  Add to this 15 fewer shorthanded situations faced, and it is a club that has established an effective defensive identity.

In the end…

There have been hiccups along the way this season (mostly on the matter of overtime performance), but this team has been consistent and persistent in stringing together winning weeks.  It is the kind of pattern that could prove valuable down the road, avoiding the gaudy winning streaks followed by extended losing streaks that can derail a team postseason time.  It is the kind of performance pattern that seems resistant to prolonged slumps, and Caps fans should be happy with that profile.

Three Stars

• First Star: John Carlson (1-4-5, plus-3, nine shots on goal, four even strength goals scored while on ice (tied for team lead), 25:15 in average ice time (led team))
• Second Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-1-3, plus-3, took over all-time lead in power play goals scored in NHL history, 11 shots on goal, 22:58 in average ice time (second on team, led forwards)
• Third Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (2-1-3, even, one power play goal, one shorthanded goal, 21:04 in average ice time)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 34: Devils at Capitals, January 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals open the 2022 portion of their season when they host the New Jersey Devils in a Sunday matinee matchup (3:00 pm) at Capital One Arena.  Despite injuries and COVID-related absences, the Caps enter this contest with a 15-4-3 record over their last 22 games since November 8th, tied with the Tampa Bay Lightning over that span (the Caps have a tie-breaker edge based on regulation wins).  New Jersey is coming off consecutive wins after a prolonged slump in which they posted a 3-12-3 record from November 13^th through December 19^th.

To say New Jersey has been an awful road team lately might be understatement.  They started the season in respectable fashion when traveling, posting a 3-2-2 record in their first seven road games.  But since that start they are 1-6-0, a win in Buffalo over the Sabres in their last road contest breaking a six-game losing streak.  There is no mystery to New Jersey’s road woes of late.  In each of their six losses in that streak, they allowed four or more goals, 32 in all (5.33 goals allowed per game). 

The goaltending during the last seven weeks has been universally poor.  Four goalies have dressed for the Devils since November 13^th, when their slump started, and all four have save percentages under .900 and goals against averages north of 3.00.  Mackenzie Blackwood, the number one goalie, had a fine start to the season, going 4-1-2, 2.72, .922, with one shutout.  But since then, in ten appearances he is 3-5-1, 3.66, .874, with one shutout. Only twice in those ten appearances he had a save percentage over .900.  Even in his most recent two appearances – both wins – he was under .900.  It is part of a trend that might be cause for concern among the Devils’ faithful.  Blackwood is in his fourth season, and he has seen his save percentage drop and goals against average increase in each of the seasons, including this one.  Blackwood has been nicked up this season, missing a pair of games to a neck injury and seven others to a heel injury.  Blackwood’s record against the Caps leaves much to be desired as well.  He is 1-7-1, 3.54, .873, in nine career games against Washington.

The slump since mid-November has been brutal for defenseman Dougie Hamilton.  In 20 games since then, Hamilton leads the team in points (4-8-12), but he is also a minus-14, second-worst in the league among all skaters over that stretch of games and worst among defensemen. No player has been on ice for more goals against at even strength than Hamilton over that span (32, to 28 for Colton Parayko).  It is more than unusual that Hamilton should struggle over such a long stretch.  While he is more an offensive than defensive defenseman, and he has received Norris Trophy votes in each of the five seasons preceding this one (including a fourth-place finish last season), he is on a pace to finish the season having been on ice for more even strength goals against (92) than any of his previous nine seasons (72 with Calgary in 2017-2018).  His on ice goals against seems to have nullified, to a degree, his offensive contributions.  New Jersey is 4-1-2 when he recorded a goal, but only 7-6-2 when he recorded at least one point.  And, the Devils’ record is brutal when he bears a heavy ice time burden – 3-11-4 in 18 games in which he logged at least 21:39 in ice time.  Hamilton is 3-5-8, minus-3, in 22 career games against the Caps.

New Jersey has had their issues scoring on the road, their 2.43 goals scored per game ranking 24^th in the league in scoring offense in road games. One player fighting that trend is Jesper Bratt, who leads the team in goals scored on the road (five in 13 road games), assists (eight), and points (13).  He has been on ice for 14 goals at even strength in road contests, tied for the top spot on the team with Ryan Graves, and he has the best on-ice goal differential at evens on the road (plus-3).  Bratt is the latest in a line of forwards with the Devils adept at multiple phases of the game – Travis Zajac, Scott Gomez, Jamie Langenbrunner, john Madden, and others.  His game will not shine brightly in one area, but he can contribute in different ways, and on a team that is struggling like the Devils, that attribute is valuable.  The difficulty is that with the rest of the team having its troubles, the offensive contributions are often wasted.  New Jersey is just 4-3-2 in all games in which Bratt scored a goal and 8-6-5 in 19 games in which he recorded a point.  Bratt is 3-2-5, minus-1, in 18 career games against the Caps.

1.  New Jersey has precisely 5,000 goals scored in road games in their history.

2.  The Devils have been lit up in second periods in road games this season, allowing 25 goals (most in the league) in 14 road games.

3.  Only Detroit and Columbus have allowed more 5-on-5 goals on the road (43 apiece) than New Jersey (42).

4.  The Devils are not especially physical on the road.  Their 17.63 credited hits per 60 minutes are fourth-fewest in the league, and they have only two fighting majors in 14 road games (they have five on home ice).

5.  New Jersey has one win on the road when scoring first this season, tied for fewest wins in the league with Columbus.

1.  Washington is the only team in the league that is top-five in both scoring offense (3.45/5^th) and scoring defense (2.55/5^th).

2.  Tom Wilson is getting cranky.... 20 PIMs in his first 21 games...34 in his last eight games.

3.  Alex Ovechkin leads the league in points since November 20^th (24, two more than Connor McDavid) and is tied for the league lead in game-winning goals (three).

4.  Washington is stingy allowing shots on home ice, their 25.6 shots allowed per game being second-fewest in the league (Calgary: 24.5).

5.  The Caps have nine wins on home ice when scoring first, second in the league to Dallas (10).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: P.K. Subban

It seemed like only yesterday when P.K. Subban was the high-energy 21-year old rookie in Montreal earning a spot on the first-team All-Rookie squad and finishing sixth in Calder Trophy voting for top rookie (Caps fans might remember that John Carlson finished one spot above him in the Calder voting in that 2010-2011 season).  Today, Subban is the oldest skater on the active Devils’ roster at age 32.  His game has changed, too, and not necessarily for the better.  In his first eight NHL seasons (six with Montreal and two with Nashville) he never had fewer than 35 points and had a per-82 game scoring line of 13-40-53, plus-6 and ended that run with a second-team All-Star berth and a third-place finish in Norris Trophy voting in 2017-2018.  In three-plus seasons since (one with Nashville, three with New Jersey), though, Subban has a per-82 game scoring line of just 9-23-32, minus-13, and topped 30 points only once (31 in 2018-2019), failing to earn any Norris Trophy votes. 

Part of the problem has been absences from the lineup.  He missed 19 games in 2018-2019 to an upper body injury, and he has twice been placed in COVID protocol, once last season and once this season.  He has also seen his ice time pared back his 18:59 per game being the only season in which his average ice time was under 20 minutes.  Subban has struggled in the offensive zone of late, going 1-2-3, plus-2, in his last 13 games overall.  Odd Subban fact… he is 1-5-6 both at home and on the road so far this season.  He is 1-10-11, minus-11, in 38 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Garnet Hathaway

In a game against a team than might prefer to grind rather than run and gun, especially on the road, a gritty player like Garnet Hathaway takes on added importance.  Not that Hathaway is merely a minutes eater while more skilled players catch their breath on the bench.  Hathaway is 7-4-11, plus-10, in 28 games this season, a 19-11-30, plus-28 pace per 82 games.  His goal scoring pace would obliterate his personal best for a season (11 in 2018-2019 with Calgary), as would his 30 points (he has never reached the 20-point mark in any of his previous six seasons.  And, as Caps fans know, he’s an ornery cuss, too.  His 105 credited hits rank sixth among 527 skaters appearing in at least 20 games so far this season, while his 16.45 hits per 60 minutes rank seventh among that same cohort.  But even with that ornery streak, he does play within the rules more than one might expect.  While he does rank second on the team in penalty minutes taken per 60 minutes (1.41), he ranks just 54^th among those 527 skaters appearing in at least 20 games.

Hathaway has been hot lately, going 2-3-5, plus-4, in his last five games.  In his last seven games at Capital One Arena, he is 3-3-6, plus-4.  The Caps have yet to lose in regulation when Hathaway scores a goal (4-0-1), and they are 5-1-1 when he recorded at least one point.  The Caps are 7-3-1 when Hathaway was credited with at least five hits, but 7-1-1 when credited with two or fewer.  And, they ae 10-3-2 when he was called upon to take 20 or more shifts.  Odd Hathaway fact… he has more multi-point games this season (four) than single-point games (three).  He is 1-1-2, plus-1, in 17 career games against New Jersey.

In the end…

The Devils are a bit of a mess lately, a big mess in their own zone.  Nine times in 32 games so far they have allowed five or more goals.  If there is one thing they do well, especially on the road, though, is kill penalties.  Their 89.1 percent kill rate in road games is third-best in the league.  That suggests more of a 5-on-5 battle, and the Caps have certainly proven adept at winning those battles this season.

Capitals 4 – Devils 3