Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 18

Week 18 was another iffy week in what has become a lengthy slump for the Washington Capitals.  One can see this season slowly bleeding away, and it is looking as if the Caps do not have an answer to fix their problems.

Record (1-1-0)

Week 18 makes it six weeks in a row that the Caps have not had a winning record.  Two losing weeks and four break-even weeks, including Week 18.  They were 2-0-0 in Week 12, but since then, they are 6-8-2.  The new calendar year is proving to be a long-running nightmare, the Caps going 6-8-2 from January 1^st through Week 18, tied for 23^rd in points and 25^th in points percentage over that period.  Worse, the Caps lost four straight on home ice through Week 18 and are 2-6-1 in calendar year 2022 through Saturday, tied for 25^th in points (five) and 30^th in points percentage (.278).

Offense: 4.50 / game (season: 3.24 / 11th)

Scoring goals was not a problem in Week 18, seven Caps sharing the nine goals in the two games.  Tom Wilson and Joe Snively were the two-goal scorers for the Caps for the week.  The odd part about the point distribution is in the leaders.  Evgeny Kuznetsov with three points (1-2-3) sharing the lead in points is not surprising, but Joe Snively (2-1-3) and Carl Hagelin (1-2-3) is.  All in all, the Caps did have a decent distribution of points overall, 13 skaters posting at least one.

Defense: 3.50 / game (season: 2.76 / 11th)

Strange week. The Caps allowed 44 shots allowed in one game, 26 in the other.  They were minus-21 in shot attempts differential at 5-on-5 in one game, plus-10 in the other.  They won the former and lost the latter.  Part of it might have been score effects, the Caps being minus-22 when ahead in their 5-2 win over Montreal, but still, the disparity by game was eye-popping.

Fourteen of 18 skaters dressing for the week were on ice for at least one goal against at even strength, perhaps the kind of distribution one does not want to see.  Conor Sheary was on ice for three even strength goals against, most on the team for the week.  Every defenseman to dress for the week was on ice for at least one even strength goal against.  The odd part here was in the five players to escape without an even strength goal against when on ice.  Among that group were Evgeny Kuznetsov, Tom Wilson, Joe Snively, Brett Leason, and Connor McMichael.  Not exactly the group one might have expected, even if Leason and McMichael averaged less than nine minutes of even strength ice time.

Goaltending: 3.52 / .900 (season: 2.56 / .908 / 6 shutouts)

There is good, bad, and ugly.  But there being only two games, the goaltending divided between good and ugly.  The good was Ilya Samsonov, who stopped 42 of 44 shots in the Caps’ 5-2 win over Montreal to close the week.  It was the third time this season that Samsonov faced more than 40 shots and his second win.  What kept his week from qualifying as excellent was allowing going 6-for-7 in 16 minutes in the Caps’ the three goals on four shots in five minutes in the Caps’ 5-4 loss to Columbus to start the week, but it was a minor blemish on one of his best weeks of the season.

The ugly was Pheonix Copley, who stopped only 15 of 19 shots (.789 save percentage) in 42 minutes in that loss to Columbus.  His has been the very good against the very bad in his two appearances for the Caps, his other being 21 saves on 22 shots (.955) in a 5-3 loss to Edmonton when he relieved an ineffective Samsonov.  Another illustration of the uneven, inconsistent goaltending the Caps have had over much of the season.

Power Play: 1-for-7 / 14.3 percent (season: 15.3 percent / 29th).

Getting seven chances on the man advantage was the good part of the week for the Caps.  Getting one goal against the 15^th ranked (Columbus) and 30^th ranked (Montreal) penalty kills was not.  Evgeny Kuznetsov had the lone power play goal, and Alex Ovechkin, who missed the Montreal game due to Canadian COVID restrictions, extended his streak of games without a power play goal to eight.  For the Caps, the week left them tied for the fifth-worst power play goal differential since January 1^st – seven power play goals for, two shorthanded against (plus-5).

Penalty Killing: 5-for-8 / 62.5 percent (season: 78.0 percent / 19th)

It might not get enough attention among the myriad problems the Caps have had over the past couple of months, but the penalty kill has been awful.  This was the second week in a row the Caps allowed three or more power play goals (7-for-14/50.0 percent combined) and extends a brutal trend.  Since January 1^st through Week 18, the Caps’ 69.6 percent penalty kill ranks 28^th in the league.

Faceoffs: 68-for-120 / 56.7 percent (46.7 percent / 30^th)

Sure, in a mediocre week, it is in the circle where the Caps had one of their best weeks of the season.  But even here, the results were uneven.  Nic Dowd was almost unbeatable in faceoffs, winning 33 of 40 draws overall (82.5 percent), winning 17 of 18 draws against Columbus and 16 of 22 against Montreal.  Of 66 instances this season in which a player took ten or more draws, his 94.4 percent win percentage against Columbus was second best of the season.  But take away Dowd’s performance, and the rest of the team was just 35-for-80 (41.8 percent), and all too typical result for the Caps this season.

Goals by Period

The best that can be said of the week in this category is that the Caps did not allow a first period goal, the only team in the league to do so.  But then there were the second periods, an issue for the Caps for most of the season, and the five goals they allowed, tied for second-most for the week.  The difference here left the Caps with a 25-goal differential in goals allowed to the bad from the first periods of games (32 goals allowed) to the second (57) for the season overall.

Year-over-Year

This year’s Caps team is slowly slipping behind last year’s squad across categories.  They are not six wins and seven standings points behind last year’s pace though 49 games.  Total scoring is down, but so are total goals allowed.  The power play continues to be a major disappointment, and the penalty kill is now moving into that sort of description. 

In the end…

The Caps are not a very good team at the moment.  In fact, you could describe them as “bad” and get little argument.  The 2022 portion of the season has been ugly, and in some respects that was true of Week 18.  There is little these days to suggest the problems are episodic, but appear to be more systemic in their nature.  Poor special teams, inconsistent goaltending, sluggishness and lackadaisical play on too many nights.  It might be that the Caps have reached a point where the solution won’t come from inside the roster, even if they return to full health.  There are just too many holes, and that does not bode well for a deep playoff run.  They have 33 games to sort this out.

Three Stars

• First Star: Ilya Samsonov (1-0-0, 2.00, .955)
• Second Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (2-1-3, plus-4, one power play goal, five shots on goal, nine shot attempts)
• Third Star: Carl Hagelin (1-2-3, plus-2, three shots on goal, five shot attempts)

 

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 50: Senators at Capitals, February 13th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! 

We have reached Game 50 of the regular season schedule for the Washington Capitals, a Super Bowl Sunday matinee matchup against the Ottawa Senators at 12:30 at Capital One Arena. The Caps will be looking to sweep the season series against the Sens, having won the first meeting, 7-5, in Ottawa on October 25th and following that up with a 3-2 overtime win at Capital One on January 22nd. Washington will be trying to snap a four-game losing streak, all in regulation, on home ice, while Ottawa comes to Washington with a 3-2-1 record in their last six road games. 

Despite the recent record over .500 on the road for the Senators, they are tied for 24th in the league in points percentage on the road for the season overall (.405, tied with Dallas). Although the Senators have 19 goals in their last six road games, they rank 19th overall in scoring offense on the road this season (2.76 goals per game). 

If it isn’t enough that the Senators are not a particularly prolific offense on the road, their top two point getters on the road – Josh Norris and Drake Batherson – are currently on the injured reserve list, Norris with a shoulder injury and Batherson with an ankle sprain. That leaves Brady Tkachuk as the leading active scorer on the road for Ottawa (4-11-15 in 20 road games). The fourth overall pick of the 2018 Entry Draft, he has not disappointed in his three and a half seasons in the NHL. He ranks third in his draft class in games played (238 through Friday), second in goals (74), fourth in assists (83), second in points (157), first in power play goals (14), fourth in power play points (32), first in overtime goals (four), and second in game-winning goals (11). He also brings a well-developed physical edge to his game, ranking first in his draft class in penalty minutes (316, more than 100 minutes more than Andrei Svechnikov (211)), first in credited hits (867, almost twice as many as Svechnikov (442)), and first in hits per 60 minutes (12.22; minimum: 25 games). With a 14-18-32, plus-4, scoring line through 40 games, Tkachuk is on a pace to finish 29-37-66, plus-8, all of which would be career bests. He is also on a pace to finish with 135 penalty minutes, which would also be a career high. He does come into this game on a road scoring slump, having gone nine games without a goal going into Saturday’s action, his last road goal scored back on December 14th in an 8-2 pasting of the Florida Panthers. Tkachuk is 0-3-3, minus-3, in seven career games against Washington. 

Thomas Chabot might not be among the elite offensive defensemen in the NHL, but he is a dependable contributor from the blue line. Chabot, taken by the Senators 18th overall as the fifth defenseman in the 2015 Entry Draft, he became a full-time player in 2017-2018. Since then he has a scoring line of 38-136-174, his goal total tied for 25th among defensemen over that period, his assists ranking 18th, and his point total ranking 21st. His 55 points in 2017-2018 ranks as the 24th highest point total by a defenseman since 2017-2018 (tied with Victor Hedman in 2019-2020). He has been more of a playmaker than a goal scorer over his career to date, but this season is goal scoring has taken a bit of a tumble. He has only three goals on 117 shots through Friday, the 2.6 shooting percentage being his worst in five full seasons with the Sens. He is, however, quite the minutes-eater, averaging 26:58 in ice time per game, most in the league heading into Saturday and highest of his career. In fact, his average ice time has increased over each of his five full seasons, from 17:31 in 2017-2018 to 24:17 in 2018-2019 to 26:00 in 2019-2020 to 26:17 last season. Seven times in 43 games he topped 30 minutes; no other defenseman in the league had more than two through Friday’s games. Chabot is 2-4-6, minus-6, in eight career games against the Caps. 

Tim Stützle has a promising career ahead of him in the NHL. Taken with the third overall pick in the 2020 Entry Draft, he is second in his draft class to top overall pick Alexis Lafreniere in games played (95), second to Lafreniere in goals (20), first in assists (32), first in points (52), first in power play goals (six), first in power play points (18), one of four players in that class with an overtime goal, second in game-winning goals (five), first in shots on goal (205), first in credited hits (122), and first in penalty minutes (37). And of 943 skaters to dress in the NHL this season, only 12 players are younger than the 20-year old Stützle. He is only the ninth player in Senators history to post 50 or more career points (52) at age 20 or younger. His road performance in goal scoring has picked up after a slow start. Stützle did not record a point in his first 11 road games (he did have five assists), but he has four goals in his last nine road games going into Saturday. He is without a point and has a minus-1 rating in his two games against the Caps to date. 

1.  Ottawa was shut out, 2-0, by Boston on Saturday, their sixth time being shut out this season, most in the league. 

2. The Senators are one of seven teams without an overtime goal on the road so far this season. 

3. Ottawa has drawn 4.16 penalties per 60 minutes on the road, fourth-most in the league. 

4. The Sens are one of seven teams to draw ten or more major penalties on the road this season. 

5. Only to teams in the league have more hits per 60 minutes in road games – Nashville (31.20) and Montreal (29.27) -- than Ottawa (28.92). 

1.  With a win, the Caps will tie for their tenth-best record, by points percentage, in team history. They would go to 27-14-9, the same record the 2010-2011 club had after 50 games. 

2. Unless the Caps score four or more power play goals, they will have played 50 games havng the third-fewest number of power play goals in 47 seasons of franchise history. Their 22 power play goals at the moment lead only the 1976-1977 club (18) and the 1977-1978 team (21). 

3. Should the Caps lose in extra time, they will tie the 2014-2015 team for most extra time losses (10) through 50 games. 

4. At game’s end on Sunday, this year’s club will have the fewest penalty minutes in team history through 50 games (currently 344, 68 fewer than the 2020-2021 team). 

5. The Caps have a current goal differential of plus-24. If they are a plus-3 on Sunday, they will jump to seventh-best goal differential after 50 games in team history. 

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder 

Ottawa: Zach Sanford 

The memories of the Caps drafting Zach Sanford in the 2013 Entry Draft (2nd round/61st overall) are no doubt receding among Capitals fans. He appeared in 26 games for the Caps as a rookie in 2016-2017 (2-1-3, even) before he was traded with a 2017 first round draft pick, a 2019 second round draft pick and Brad Malone to the St. Louis Blues for Pheonix Copley and Kevin Shattenkirk in February 2017. Since then, he has become something of an underrated scorer. Despite averaging less than 14 minutes per game over the past four seasons (three with St. Louis and this year with Ottawa), he has 41 goals in 213 games, a 16-goal pace per 82 games. That performance comes with a respectable efficiency, Sanford scoring goals on 13.9 percent of his shots over that span. He is a bit off that pace this season (a 13-goal pace), but six of his seven goals have come in 21 road games. Half of those goals came in a hat trick he recorded in a 7-5 loss to Colorado on November 22nd. Since then, he has two goals in his last 15 road contests. Sanford is 1-0-1, even, in three career games against his old team. 

Washington: Martin Fehervary 

Rookies often have up and down spells in their inaugural seasons, and defenseman Martin Fehervary has not been immune to such things. He started February with his 15th consecutive game without a point and one point in 27 games (an assist), but he goes into Sunday’s game with assists in each of his last three contests. He started February having logged an average of 21:05 in ice time over a ten-game stretch, but he did not hit the 20-minute mark in any of his last three games (18:54 per game). He managed only five shots on goal over a seven game stretch over a month from December 15th through January 15th, but he has 16 shots on goal in his last 11 games. One thing at which he has displayed consistency is in avoiding minus-ratings in games. Only nine times in 46 games did he finish with a minus rating and only once as bad as a minus-2. He has only three “minus” games on home ice this season and goes into this game having avoided a minus rating in each of his last ten games.  His on-ice goal differential at even strength of plus-16 leads all rookie defensemen in the league, and his 61.4 percent on ice goal share at even strength is second in the league among rookie defensemen playing at least ten games. He has not been a liability with heavy ice time loads, the Caps going 10-4-1 in the 15 games in which he logged at least 20 minutes. Fehervary is 0-1-1, plus-1, in two career games against Ottawa. 

In the end… 

If there is any truth in the notion that you are only as good as your last game, Ottawa might have trouble on Sunday, having been shut out in their last two games by identical 2-0 scored against Pittsburgh and Boston on home ice. On the other hand, they are 5-4-1 in their last ten games overall, which is better than the Caps’ 5-5-0 record over their last ten games. The Senators, despite resting in sixth place in the Atlantic Division, are no pushover lately. The Caps have been dismal on home ice for more than two months. Since posting a four-game winning streak, all in regulation from November 8-26, the Caps are 5-8-2 in their last 15 home games did not win consecutive games in regulation in that span. Lineups have lacked consistency for the Caps with injuries and COVID related absences, but this is a team of considerable skill. The absences go only so far in explaining the Caps’ poor performance. With the Caps wrapping up the first 50 games on their schedule, they need to step up their game as they begin the stretch run to the postseason. 

Capitals 4 – Senators 3