Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 20

Week 20 might have been the worst week for the Washington Capitals in recent memory.  A winless week, almost no offense, losses to a poor possession team and a team that couldn’t seem to win games in regulation even if they were spotted multiple goals, which the Caps did and failed to make up the difference.  It was brutal.  Fortunately, it was only a two-game week.

 

Record (0-2-0)

Week 20 was the fourth week of the season in which the Caps failed to record a win and the first win which they played more than one game and failed to earn a standings point (they were 0-1-0 in Week 11).  Making it worse, the two losses came against Metropolitan Division opponents, and while the loss to Philadelphia to end the week had no impact on the teams’ relative stations this season, the loss to the New York Rangers to open the week did leave the Caps slipping further behind the Blueshirts for the third seed in the Metropolitan Division.

But while that loss to the Flyers did not have any impact on the teams’ relative positions in the standings, it was galling nonetheless.  In dropping a 2-1 decision to the Flyers, the Caps were only the second team that Philadelphia beat in regulation since December 14^th.  The loss in New York to the Rangers broke a three-game winning streak at Madison Square Garden.

Offense: 1.00 / game (season: 3.17 / 13th)

Two games, two goals, one at even strength.  And while getting one goal in New York against one of the better defensive teams in the league (2.44 goals allowed per game, third-best in the league at week’s end) and a Vezina Trophy contender in goal was not an altogether surprising result, one goal – on a power play – against the 25^th-ranked scoring defense in the league I Philadelphia was just inexcusable.

It was not as if the Caps lacked for shots on goal, they totaled 65 in two games for the week. What they lacked was follow-up and a persistence in getting into good scoring areas or in sniffing out rebounds.  There was a lot of “one-and-done” in terms of their shooting for the week.  For the record, Alex Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie scored the goals for the week, Ovechkin’s being a rather cosmetic tally late in what was at the time a 4-0 Ranger lead and Oshie’s being a power play goal of a sort that was missing during his injury absence, a one-timer from the bumper slot on a power play.

Four skaters recorded points (Ovechkin, Oshie, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Nicklas Backstrom), Kuznetsov the only one posting two points for the week.

Defense: 3.00 / game (season: 2.76 / 11th)

It was not exactly a bad week for the Caps, who allowed only 43 shots on goal and 93 attempts for the week.  It was a case of committing unforced errors in coverage that led to problems, perhaps none as obvious as the Kuznetsov losing track of Claude Giroux trailing a play, taking a pass, and snapping the puck into the back of the net just 11 seconds into the Caps’ 2-1 loss to the Flyers to end the week.  Or there was the Rangers’ Alexis Lafreniere easing out from behind the Caps’ net, shoving Martin Fehervary off balance, and redirecting a shot past goalie Ilya Samsonov.  Or Chris Kreider, who Dmitry Orlov allowed to walk across the top of the crease unchecked and into open space to take a feed and stuff into the net to all but end the competitive portion of that game, giving the Rangers a 3-0 lead midway through the third period.  It was decent defense pockmarked by some hideous errors in coverages, an “all-or-nothing” sort of week in the defensive end of the rink.

Goaltending: 3.09 / .860 (season: 2.62 / .908 / 6 shutouts)

Ilya Samsonov got both starts and, frankly, deserved better support than he got in front of him.  There was the usual iffy goal allowed, that one being a Mika Zibanejad tally from the right-wing circle in the 4-1 loss to the Rangers that snuck past his left elbow that he might like back.  But he kept the Caps in the Rangers’ game as best he could with a sluggish to the point of sleepwalking team in front of him, and he was quite good against the Flyers after that Giroux goal 11 seconds into the game, the second goal he allowed being the product of a teammate – Conor Sheary – putting the puck on the stick of Cam Atkinson for a goal from the post to Samsonov’s left.  Samsonov has now started six straight games and has a disappointing 3-3-0 record in those games, but his underlying numbers – 2.71 goals against average and .911 save percentage – have been decent.  They do, however, need to be better to inspire any confidence that he can carry his fair share of the load as the postseason approaches.  He cannot be a passenger relying on the Caps to us high volume scoring to win games.  He has to show an ability to steal the occasional game.

Power Play: 1-for-7 / 14.3 percent (season: 16.1 percent / 28th).

It just is not a very good power play at the moment.  It is not even a mediocre power play at the moment and has not been for the last couple of months.  Part of the problem was that an important cog was missing for much of that time to injury.  But T.J. Oshie has returned to the lineup, and while one power play goal does not a turnaround make, his getting the Caps’ lone power play strike on a set play from his post in the middle of the Caps’ 1-3-1 set-up was a plus.  Whether it is something on which to build will have to await whether he can continue to produce and occupy defenses a bit more to allow Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson a bit more room to do their work on the man advantage.

Penalty Killing: 4-for-4 / 100.0 percent (season: 79.6 percent / 15th)

The week was not a total loss, style-wise, thanks to the penalty kill.  Allowing only four man advantage chances, killing them all, including killing both chances against the fourth-best power play in the league on their ice and snuffing out both Flyer power plays, including 49 seconds of a 5-on-3 advantage, made for a good week in this area.  It was the seventh time in 20 weeks that the Caps were perfect in penalty killing but only the second time in the last seven weeks.  It was also the third time this season the Caps held an opponent to four chances.

Faceoffs: 55-for-109 / 50.5 percent (46.9 percent / 30th)

It was a week that gave credence to the notion that faceoffs don’t matter much.  An uncommon 50-plus percent week in the circle did not give the Caps much push to make it a successful week in wins.  It was, however, an uneven week of the sort that might have had an impact on the Caps’ inability to score.  They won 24 of 51 offensive zone draws (47.8 percent), but the two top scoring line centers – Nicklas Backstrom and Evgeny Kuznetsov – went a combined 10-for-25 (40.0 percent) in the offensive zone.

The Caps were better in the defensive end, going 18-for-31 (58.1 percent), Nic Dowd and Backstrom finishing over 50 percent and going a combined 12-for-17 (70.6 percent).

It was also an uneven week in terms of game-to-game performance, the Caps winning 32 of 51 draws against New York (62.7 percent) but only winning 23 of 58 faceoffs against the Flyers (39.7 percent), a game in which no Capital finished over 50 percent.

Goals by Period

When a team scores two goals in two games, the goals by period do not impress, and that is the case in Week 20.  The problem for the Caps were those three first period goals, the Caps falling behind first in both games.  The combination of digging themselves early holes and an anemic offense made for a bad week, especially for a club that still finished the week tied for sixth-fewest first period goals allowed but allowed half the goals given up for the week in the first frame.

Year-over-Year

This year’s Caps are sinking more quickly relative to last year’s squad, and that is an ominous sign.  Injuries have taken their toll on this team, but it also has the look of a club that is running out of gas.  While the defense in this team is better compared to last year, the offense is now running at about a quarter goal per game under last year’s scoring pace, despite an edge of more than 100 shots on goal for this team over last through 54 games.  The power play is hopelessly behind last year’s team, but the penalty kill seems to be sagging relative to last year’s as well. 

In the end…

Week 20 was nothing short of a disaster, arguably the low point of the season to date.  Almost no offense, an inability to recover from early deficits, poor power play, and a general lack of spark that has ominous tones as the season heads into the home stretch.  Does this team have enough energy to recover from a poor middle third of the season?  Will a trade really make all that much difference?  These are the sorts of questions one does not ask of a Stanley Cup contender, but here we are with a team that is all but certain to make the playoffs but might be just as certain to make that trip a short one.

Three Stars

• First Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (0-2-2, minus-1, nine shots on goal)
• Second Star: T.J. Oshie (1-0-1, minus-1, one power play goal, six shots on goal, 61.5 winning percentage on faceoffs)
• Third Star: Nic Dowd (0-0-0, even, 65.2 winning percentage on faceoffs, six credited hits)

A NO Point Afternoon: Washington Capitals -- Game 54: Flyers 2 - Capitals 1

The Washington Capitals traveled to Philadelphia to try to go two-for-two at Wells Fargo Center in the space of less than two weeks.  Instead, the Caps allowed the games first goal 11 seconds into the contest, allowed another in the last two minutes of the first period, and played catch-up for the last two periods, a T.J. Oshie power play goal being all the Caps could muster against goalie Carter Hart in a 2-1 loss.

First Period

It did not take long for the Flyers to take the early lead.  Just 11 seconds into the contest, Cam Atkinson outmuscled Martn Fehervary for the puck in the high slot, and Atkinson backhanded the puck to a charging Claude Giroux, who snapped the puck past goalie Ilya Samsonov to give the home team the early – very early – lead.

The Caps went to a power play shortly thereafter, Isaac Ratcliffe going off for tripping at the 30 second mark.  The Caps could not get the equalizer, though, and the Flyers maintained their lead.

The Flyers dominated possession and territory, but could not add to their lead.  The skating was interrupted momentarily by a bout between Tom Wilson for the Caps and Zack MacEwen for the Flyers at the 16:30 mark that appeared to end in a draw.  Both players went off on fighting majors, but MacEwen had a roughing minor tacked on to put the Caps on a power play.  The Caps could not find the back of the net, and they paid for it as the penalty expired.  Cam Atkinson scored on a two-man rush when Conor Sheary tried to move the puck out of harm’s way and put it on the stick of Cam Atkinson, who chipped it over the left shoulder of Samsonov, and it was 2-0, Flyers, 18:38 into the period.  That would end the scoring for the period.

-- The Flyers outshot the Caps, 14-9, and out-attempted them, 27-15.

-- Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom led the team with two shots apiece; Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Michal Kempny had two attempts apiece.

-- The Caps were 5-for-21 on faceoffs in the period (23.8 percent).

-- Tom Wilson was credited with four of the 11 hits registered by the Caps in the period.

Second Period

Washington went to a power play 6:39 into the period when Ratcliffe took another penalty, an interference call.  It took the Caps only 14 seconds to convert, T.J. Oshie finding open space in the bumper slot to accept a pass from Nicklas Backstrom and snap it past goalie Carter Hart’s left shoulder to make it a 2-1 game at the 6:53 mark.

The Flyers went a man up for the first time in the contest 11:20 into the period when Nic Dowd was sent off on a roughing penalty.  The Caps went two men down when Fehervary was sent to the box for interference at 12:31 of the period.  The Caps managed to kill off both ends of the 5-on-3 Flyer advantage to preserve the one-goal deficit.  And that is how the period would end, the Flyers still up, 2-1.

-- The Caps outshot the Flyers, 11-4, in the period and out-attempted them, 21-19.

-- Washington improve on that ghastly first period in the faceoff circle, winning 13 of 23 draws (56.5 percent).

-- Nicklas Backstrom led the team in shots on goal through 40 minutes with four; Evgeny Kuznetsov had six shot attempts (two on goal, two blocked, two misses).

-- Trevor van Rimesdyk had five of the Caps’ 18 blocked shots through two periods.

Third Period

In a period without much in the way of offense – 12 shots combined for the two teams – and more icing than you’d see on a wedding cake, the Flyers held on to take the 2-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- The 2-1 win for the Flyers was their first in regulation time since February 1^st, when they defeated Winnipeg, 3-1, and only their second regulation win in their last 25 games dating back to December 14^th, when they beat New Jersey, 6-1.

-- Washington outshot the Flyers, 26-22, and out-attempted them, 62-55.

-- Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, and Evgeny Kuznetsov all had four shots on goal to lead the team; Kuznetsov had eight shot attempts.

-- After a dismal start in the circle, the Caps recovered somewhat to go 23-for-58 on faceoffs (39.7 percent).  No Capital finished over 50 percent for the game.

-- Trevor van Riemsdyk finished with five blocked shots to lead the team.

-- Tom Wilson was credited with seven hits, Alex Ovechkin with five.

-- Nic Dowd was the only Capital not to register a shot attempt.

-- T.J. Oshie’s goal was his first since January 10^th and his first on the road since he had a hat trick in Ottawa against the Senators on October 25^th  in a 7-5 win.

-- Nicklas Backstrom’s assist on the Oshie goal broke a three-game streak without a point and was his first point on the road since January 28^th, when he went 1-2-3 in a 5-0 win in Dallas over the Stars (five-game road pointless streak broken).

-- The loss to the Flyers was the first to this team of Ilya Samsonov’s career (now 6-1-0).

In the end…

We are here.  The low point of the Caps season.  An opponent that can’t win in regulation scores 11 seconds into the game to take a lead they would not relinquish, then scores in the last two minutes of the period.  Talk about starting and finishing periods poorly.  A listless offense, a discombobulated defense missing coverages, an apparent lack of desire to aggressively pursue rebounds, ineffective zone entries, one-and-done shooting.  There is not a phase of the game in any zone that should give Capitals Nation any comfort at this point.  And with the week coming up – Toronto, Carolina, and Seattle on the schedule – this team might not yet have hit bottom.  That is a scary thing to ponder for a team that should be fine tuning and sharpening itself for the postseason.

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 54: Capitals at Flyers, February 26th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their four-game road trip with a Saturday matinee at Wells Fargo Center, where they will wrap up the road portion of their season series against the Philadelphia Flyers.  The Caps will look to sweep the Flyers on their own rink, having bested the Flyers, 5-3, in their other visit, on February 17^th.  Despite their uninspired 4-1 loss to the New York Rangers on Thursday night, the Caps can wrap up a successful road trip with a win in Philadelphia and a 3-1 record on the trip.

Meanwhile, the sinking like a stone Flyers will labor under a six-game losing streak and a 2-14-5 record over their last 21 games when they take the ice to host the Caps (0-4-2).  The most disappointing part of that record is the Flyers’ inability to win on home ice (2-7-3).  Their .292 points percentage on home ice over this stretch is tied for third-worst in the league (we will point out that the Caps’ home winning percentage over this same period is worst in the league (.250/2-7-1).

The Flyers have not had much success from their expected players as far as goal scoring is concerned on home ice over this stretch.  In 12 games at Wells Fargo Center since December 30^th, their leading goal scorers are Oskar Lindblom and Gerry Mayhew with five apiece.  Lindblom is one of the feel-good stories for a team desperately in search of one.  A fifth-round (138^th overall) pick in the 2014 Entry Draft, Lindblom showed steady improvement once he cracked the Flyer lineup in 2017-2018.  He went 2-4-6, plus-4 in 23 games in his first season in Philadelphia and followed that up with a 17-16-33, minus-9, scoring line in his sophomore season. 

He was in the midst of a breakout season in 2019-2020, going 11-7-18, plus-4, in 30 games when he was diagnosed on December 13, 2019, with Ewing’s sarcoma, ending his season.  After almost seven months of treatment, the Flyers showed faith in his ability to return to action, signing him to a three-year/$9 million contract less than three weeks after his last chemotherapy treatment.  Lindblom returned to action on January 13, 2021, scoring a goal in his first game back.  He finished the 2020-2021 season 8-6-14, minus-9, an excellent result for a player recovering from cancer.  His determination in his comeback resulted in his winning the 2021 Masterton Trophy for exhibiting qualities of perseverance and sportsmanship.  Lindblom is 8-11-19, minus-2, in 50 games so far this season and brings a 1-4-5, minus-8 scoring line in 16 career games against the Caps.

Gerry Mayhew does not have the same history as Lindblom, save in one respect – perseverance.  An undrafted player after four years with Ferris State University, he signed a try-out contract with the Iowa Wild of the AHL in March 2017.  He graduated to the Minnesota Wild in May 2019 but dressed for only 17 games over two seasons with the parent club before departing as a free agent.  He was signed by the Flyers in July 2021, but he did not crack the Flyer lineup until December 29^th.  After going without a point over his first six games as a Flyer, he is 6-0-6, even, in his last 11 games with the club.  His scorer’s touch should not be all that surprising, despite his lack of draft pedigree.  In four years at Ferris State, Mayhew scored 52 goals in 150 games.  Over five seasons with the Iowa Wild, he posted 97 goals in 228 games, including 39 goals in 49 games in 2019-2020.  At age 29, finally getting a shot at regular NHL play, Mayhew is a study in perseverance and determination.  In two career games against the Caps, he has a pair of goals and has a plus-2 rating.

The Flyers’ defense has been, in a word, awful.  Ten defensemen have dressed for the team this season, and seven have a negative 5-on-5 on ice goal differential.  Only two have positive goal differentials at fives – Ryan Ellis, with a plus-2 in only four games, and Travis Sanheim, who is plus-2 in 49 games.  Although a modest plus number, it is quite an improvement over his minus-21 in 51 games last season, tied for fourth-worst among 214 defensemen dressing for at least 20 games.  Since his arrival in Philadelphia in 2017-2018, he ranks third in goals scored by defensemen (26), third in assists (78), and is one of three defensemen to post at least 100 points (104) with the club.  His three overtime goals is tied for most among defensemen over that period, his 84 takeaways rank first, and his 391 blocked shots rank second.   

On the other hand, his minus-24 is second worst among 24 defensemen to dress over that period, his 223 giveaways rank second worst, and his 115 penalty minutes rank fourth in that group.  And, his ice time reflects poorly on results.  In 20 games in which Sanheim skated at least 23 minutes, the Flyers are 4-8-8.  But it is still better than instances in which he has lighter ice time burdens.  In 13 games in which Sanheim skated fewer than 20 minutes, the Flyers are 1-11-1.  His offense has largely dried up over the last two-plus months.  He carries a 26-game streak without a goal (0-5-5) into Saturday’s game after going 4-10-14, plus-3, in his first 23 games of the season.  Sanheim is 1-3-4, minus-11 (worst plus-minus against any team he has faced), in 18 career games against Washington.

1.  The Flyers’ 2-14-5 since December 30^th is worst in the league over that span, the only team over that period failing to amass at least ten standings points (nine).

2.  It is no wonder that the Flyers record since December 30th is worst in the league.  They rank 30^th or worse in scoring offense (2.33 goals per game/31^st), scoring defense (3.90 goals allowed per game/30h), power play (11.1 percent/31^st), and penalty kill (67.9 percent/32^nd).

3.  No team has yielded the first goal in more games than the Flyers since their slump began on December 30^th (16 times, tied with Edmonton and Seattle); their record in those games is 1-13-2, fifth-worst in the league.

4.  Only Seattle has fewer goals on home ice (four) since December 30^th than the Flyers (five) during their 2-7-3 slide at home over that period.  The 13 third period goals they scored over the period is almost equal to the total they scored in the first 40 minutes of games (14), but even with that third period goal total, they have a minus-9 goal differential in third periods of games during that span.

5.  Only once in the 12 home games in this slump did the Flyers carry a lead into the third period.  They won, but not until after allowing the Los Angeles Kings to tie the game in the third period before winning, 4-3, in overtime on January 29^th.

1.  In each of their last five losses, the Caps allowed four or more goals; only once this season have the Caps allowed more than three goals in a game and won, a 7-5 decision in Ottawa against the Senators on October 25^th.  In 17 games in which they allowed four or more goals (not counting Gimmick decisions), the Caps are 1-12-4.

2.  In 26 road games this season, the Caps have allowed first period goals in just 11 of them and only twice allowed two goals (November 4^th at Florida in a 5-4 overtime loss and February 1^st against Pittsburgh in a 4-3 overtime win).

3.  In those same 26 road games, the Caps scored at least one first period goal in 17 of them, eight times scoring two or more with a high of four in the first period of a 7-5 win in Ottawa against the Senators on October 25^th.

4.  Does a winning faceoff percentage mean anything?  In a limited sample of road games, not for the Caps.  They are 3-3-2 in the eight road games in which they finished over 50 percent on faceoffs.

5.  No team has scored first in more road games than the Caps, who have done so 20 times in 26 road games.  They are 13-5-2 in those games, their .650 winning percentage ranking 15^th.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Kevin Hayes

It is not often we feature a player in this space who will not play, but the story of Kevin Hayes is one of frustration that parallels that of the Flyers over this season.  He came to the Flyers in a trade with the Winnipeg Jets in June 2019.  In his first two seasons with the club, he went 35-37-72, minus-8, in 124 games – second in games played for the Flyers, fourth in goals scored, sixth in points, tied for fourth in power play goals scored (seven), first in overtime goals scored (here), and third among all forwards in average ice time (17:38 per game).  But last year, Hayes played with a nagging sports hernia injury for which he had surgery after the season. 

He missed the first dozen games of this season before returning to the Flyers’ lineup on November 13^th.  He lasted just 20 games, though, injuring an adductor muscle that has kept him out of the lineup since his last appearance on January 17^th.  In those 20 games in which Hayes played, the Flyers went 6-11-3, slightly lower on a points percentage basis (.375) than the 9-15-7/.403 Philadelphia has in his absence.  Hayes, a reliable two-way forward who scored at least a dozen goals and posted at least 30 points in each of his seven seasons before this one, is an indicator of the depth of the Flyers’ problems, a team that has a record with or without him in the lineup that is very similar – poor.  Nevertheless, they are likely to miss his 7-12-19, even, career scoring line in 32 games against the Caps.

Washington: Garnet Hathaway

Garnet Hathaway continues to march along toward a career year in his seven years in the NHL.  In 48 games he played to date, he has ten goals, one off the 11 he recorded for Calgary in 76 games in 2018-2019.  All of those ten goals were scored at even strength, setting a new career high.  His nine assists are within three of his career high of 12 set last season with the Caps in 56 games.  He has already tied a career high in points (19) that he set with the Flames in 2018-2019.  His plus-15 rating is a career best.  His 13:54 in ice time per game is a career high.  He has three game-winning goals in 48 games, just two off the five he had in 76 games in 2018-2019.  His 91 shots on goal are already a career best.  His two empty net goals are a career high, as are his three empty net points.  His 0.82 goals per 60 minutes is one one-hundredth of a goal short of the 0.83 goals per 60 minutes he posted with Calgary in 2018-2019.

And, he has done this playing for the most part within the rules.  Despite his being a player who is unafraid of mixing things up and stirring the pot, his 1.44 penalties taken per 60 minutes is a career low.  This season, his contributions matter, as one might expect when a fourth liner produces in the offensive end of the rink.  The Caps are 5-1-1 in games in which he had a goal, 8-3-2 in the 13 games in which he had points.  The Caps are 8-1-3 in the 12 games in which he skated at least 15 minutes.  They are 10-2-2 when he posted at least three shots on goal.  Hathaway is 3-5-8, plus-4, in 19 career games against Philadelphia.

In the end…

The Caps, struggling as they are, are not in the same class of despair as the Flyers, who have one win in regulation time since December 16^th, a span of 24 games (4-14-6 overall).  Every game is a test of one form or another, and for the Caps it is a test to see if a team, struggling but getting healthier, can overwhelm a team playing out the string on their own ice.  Good teams do such things.  After the disappointing effort against the Rangers on Thursday, the Caps have something to prove in this regard.  It would not necessarily make them a “good” team at the moment, but it would make them better than what they displayed in New York, or what they have displayed over the last two months, for the most part.

Capitals 4 – Flyers 1