Comparing the Tens -- Through 20 Games . . . Part II, The Forwards

We looked at the team in the last installment, now it’s time to look at individuals. First, the forwards:

Alexander Ovechkin:

First ten games: 6-4-10, -3
Second ten games: 7-6-13, +2

It is a measure of the player that his first ten games could be considered a “slow” start (he was 6-5-11, +1 in his first ten last year). The trouble with that first ten games is the first game in that stretch. Putting Richard Zednik on that line might have looked like a good idea on paper, but in real time . . . ugh. One might note that in Ovechkin’s second ten games last year he was “only” 9-1-10, -4. The point we are torturing before getting to it is that that youngster is remarkable consistent . . . wind him up, watch him get 10-15 points every ten games. He did it last year, he’s up to the same hijinks this year. But here is the money number – three. He’s had the game winning goal in three of the Caps’ five wins in the second ten games (he has four game-winners overall). His goals aren’t the stat-padding kind.

Dainius Zubrus:

First ten games: 5-3-8, -2
Second ten games: 7-3-10, +1

The Peerless isn’t sure if this is a matter of his really finding a comfort zone with Ovechkin or if it’s a matter of “contract year.” He was 8-14-22 in his last 20 games last year, so compare that with his 12-6-18 in his first 20 this year. Maybe “late bloomer” is the term we’re looking for. There is one statistic for Zubrus that causes some head-scratching, even given the subjectivity of it – hits. He was credited with 17 in his first ten games (15 in his first five), six in the last ten. There is also his faceoff percentage – 50.3 percent in his first ten, 48.3 in his last ten. Given that his style is to use his size and strength as leverage in many situations, these hit and faceoff numbers might serve as an indicator that he’s been playing nicked – that he’s got some lingering knee problems that he’s been trying to play through.

Matt Bradley:

First ten games: 2-2-4, +2
Second ten games: 0-3-3, 0

Here is your odd stat for Bradley . . . two goals on nine shots in the first ten games (actually eight, he missed the first two), none on 20 shots in the last ten.

Boyd Gordon:

First ten games: 0-0-0, -1
Second ten games: 1-3-4, +2

OK, he played only one of the first ten games. While his scoring doesn’t jump off the sheet, he is winning 53.8 percent of his draws. He has been remarkably disciplined with the puck, too . . . he’s been credited with nine takeaways and only two giveaways. He doesn’t get a ton of ice time – about eleven and a half minutes a game – and the puck probably doesn’t spend much time on his stick when he is out there, but anytime you can point to a ratio like this, it’s a plus.

Brian Sutherby:

First ten games: 1-3-4, +3
Second ten games: 0-2-2, -2

He centers the line that will face the opponents’ top line more often than not, so you’d think he would be a good bellweather indicator of how the club is going. So, if the Caps are better in the second ten than the first ten, what’s up with his numbers? Well, if you look at them with Bradley’s, the third line hasn’t chipped in as much offense in the last ten games (only Ben Clymer’s two goals in his first game back as a forward).

Chris Clark:

First ten games: 3-6-9, +3
Second ten games: 2-5-7, +5

OK, he’s not the prototypical right wing. He is not a pure scorer. But the Caps are very much a “left-handed” team with Ovechkin and Alexander Semin on the left side to assume a heavy scoring role. His role has been to go get the puck and let Zubrus and Ovechkin do what they do. But he’s on a pace for 23-59-72. After 18 games last year (he’s missed the last two this year), he was 3-4-7. 5-11-16 looks a lot better. Now, you’re odd number . . . 41.3. That’s his faceoff winning percentage – he’s taken 30 draws in 18 games. That strikes The Peerless as a rather high number for a winger to be taking.

Matt Pettinger:

First ten games: 0-2-2, +1
Second ten games: 4-1-5, -2

Another one who missed substantial time to start the year (seven games). Since then, he’s been scoring goals at a 25-a-year rate. He’s getting second line minutes (about 18 a game over the last ten games), and he’s settled into a pace that could have him eclipse last year’s goal totals, even with the early time he missed.

Richard Zednik:

First ten games: 0-3-3, -5
Second ten games: 3-4-7, +1

His timing was awful. First, he gets out to a rocky start, raising questions of whether he was worth the effort to sign. Then, he gets a couple of goals and a couple of assists over a couple of games and gets hurt. He seems to be picking up where he left off, though, going 1-2-2 in his last two games since coming back. That second ten game line comes with only four games having been played.

Brooks Laich:

First ten games: 0-0-0, -4
Second ten games: 0-0-0, -3

I don’t know that there is a more disappointing player in the early going, which is really a shame given that he had a pretty decent season last year (7-14-21 in 73 games). The Peerless though he might be in a position to have a season similar to (if not of the magnitude of) Matt Pettinger last year – a substantial jump up in production. Instead, he’s taken a seat in the stands for eight of the last 12 games. Being -7 and winning less than 40 percent of his draws isn’t helping matters, either. One clings to the fact that last year after he played 12 games, he was a similar 2-1-3, -7 and hadn’t had a plus game yet. Perhaps it’s a slow start . . . that’s the branch we’ll cling to for the moment.

Rico Fata:

First ten games: 1-1-2, +3
Second ten games: gone

Fata did not play poorly in his ten games. Neither did he play especially well. What he did was give little evidence that he was going to be more than he had been – a player who can skate really, really fast and really, really can’t finish. No points in his last eight games probably sealed the evaluation.

Kris Beech:

First ten games: 1-5-6, +3
Second ten games: 0-1-1, even

The second line center position was there for the taking for someone willing to grab it by the throat and make it theirs. Beech was the favorite in a weak field, and he didn’t really do much to cement that role as his. The one area in which he shined – faceoffs – took a dip as time went on as well. After going 50-percent or better in draws in his first seven games, he’s been 50-percent or better in three of his last six. What else has tapered off is hits – a subjective measure, but perhaps an indicator of the urgency with which he does (and needs) to play. 12 credited in the first seven games, five in the last six. His game just doesn’t seem to have the sense of urgency it needs.

Ben Clymer:

First ten games: 0-0-0, 0 (he was playing defense)
Second ten games: 2-1-3, -2 (in eight games at forward)

Well, this is the kind of club you can have an experiment of playing a former defenseman, then turned forward, back on defense. You wouldn’t be as tempted to do it with a Cup contender. The experiment didn’t work, but it really can’t be pegged as a major reason for any Caps shortcomings early. Now that Clymer has been reunited with Bradley and Sutherby on the CBS line, things have a more normal look to them. He’s not getting the minutes he has as a defenseman (less than 14 minutes as as forward versus 19 a game as a defenseman), but he’s been more aggressive (14 hits versus five, 12 PIMs versus six).

Alexander Semin:

First ten games: 8-4-12, +1
Second ten games: 0-5-5, -1

Goal scorers are streaky. Peter Bondra certainly was that way for more than a decade with the Caps. Semin likely will be little different. But to dry up entirely in his last 12 games played . . . now he’s on IR. Here is your odd Semin number – six. He scored goals in six games, in which he also recorded six of his total ten hits. In 13 other games, he has a total of four hits. Chicken . . . egg?

Jakub Klepis:

First ten games: 0-0-0, even
Second ten games: 1-1-2, even

OK, if Beech won’t grab the second line center job by the throat, will Klepis? Well, not on the basis of the evidence so far. Klepis has the advantage of les history than Beech (conversely, he can be viewed as having more upside – he is less a finished product). Still, there is that gaping hole there. Klepis has a predilection for taking the lazy penalty – 16 minutes in 15 games (Peter Bondra spent an early season a few years back piling up minor penalties like manure in a cow pasture, but he had all those goals, too). The Peerless doesn’t look at Klepis as a lazy player as much as a “tentative” one. He still looks very often like a player who is trying to survive, more than play, a shift.

Tomas Fleischmann:

First ten games: 0-0-0, -1
Second ten games: 0-1-1, even

He had only one game in the first ten, seven in the last ten. He gives evidence of having skills with the puck, but he’s very much feeling his way out there. An offensive player with only nine shots on goal in eight games isn’t showing signs that he’s entirely comfortable out there.

Donald Brashear:

First ten games: 0-1-1, +2
Second ten games: 0-1-1, -2

The Peerless has seen a lot of comments along the lines of, “geez, who knew he’d look that good out there?” Brashear has skills that are confined within the rule book; he is not a liability out there in his limited minutes (which might be the key – he gets about seven and a half a game). That he’s had one fight is perhaps the most surprising number on his record thus far.

Overall:

The Caps are getting decent production from their top line of Ovechkin-Zubrus-Clark (30-27-57, +6 overall). But from there, on offense, the bottom drops out. If you look at the various second line possibilities . . .

Semin-Beech-Zednik: 12-22-34, -1 (total 46 man-games)
Semin-Klepis-Zednik: 12-17-29, -4 (48 man-games)
Semin-Beech-Pettinger: 13-18-31, +2 (45 man-games played)
Semin-Klepis-Pettinger: 13-13-26, -1 (47 man-games played)
Fleischmann-Beech-Pettinger: 5-10-15, +1 (34 man-games played)
Fleischmann-Beech-Zednik: 4-14-18, -2 (35 man-games played)
Fleischmann-Klepis-Pettinger: 5-5-10, -2 (36 man-games played)
Fleischmann-Klepis-Zednik: 4-9-13, -5 (37 man-games played)

. . . things don’t look so good. It looks a lot like a half-point a game coming out of the second line. If you look at all the players in these combinations – Semin, Beech, Zednik, Klepis, Pettinger, and Fleischmann – that’s a grand total of 17 goals, almost half of them from a player who had his last one a month ago today and is now injured. The club is getting nothing out of its second line, and thus makes the Caps that much easier to defend.

The first line gets an A- for its work thus far. It wouldn’t necessarily be the first line you’d have if the Caps were a contender, but it has done everything it could reasonably be asked to do. The others – especially the second line – have come up short . . . far short in some cases. The overall grade for the forwards:

C+

Comparing the Tens – Through Twenty Games . . . Part I, The Team

With apologies to the folks on the official site, I’m of a mind to compare ten-game segments of the season, because I think doing so provides a clearer picture of individual player performance (plus, The Peerless has to do this less often, which appeals to his innate laziness). In the first segment, we’re going to look at the team’s performance over the first ten games versus that of the second . . .

Standings:

First ten games: 3-3-4, 10 points
Second ten games: 5-3-2, 12 points

The object here is to obtain 12 standings points in each ten game split. If you do that and win the odd two games at the end, voila! . . . 100 points. The Caps fell short in the first ten due to an inability to convert shootouts (it’s still a problem), “losing” three points for that reason. The second ten games achieved the goal, but it is those two points sitting at the end of that line – both extra-session losses to Boston (one a shootout, one an overtime loss) – that stick in the craw. On the plus side, the club won at Calgary (a hard place to play), at Philadelphia (breaking a winless streak that dated to the Pleistocene Age), against Ottawa (still at least a good team on paper), against the Rangers (a 100-point team least year), and against Florida (a division opponent).

On balance, standings wise, the second ten has to be considered a success . . . just perhaps not as much as one as it could have been. That shootout loss to Boston, at home, could prove important in the season’s last few games if the club is fighting for a playoff spot.

The Special Teams/Power Play:

First ten games: 9-54 (16.7 percent)
Second ten games: 8-53 (15.1 percent)

The differences aren’t statistically significant. They are consistently mediocre – 17^th overall after 20 games. Of those 17 goals, 14 come from three players – Alex Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Alexander Semin. That those three would have 14 power play goals isn’t surprising. That only three other players have any is . . . well, perhaps not surprising, but a source of concern. Here is why . . . San Jose leads the league in power play efficiency. They have 6 goals from three defensemen. The Caps are 17^th in the league – they have one goal from a defenseman (Jamie Heward). This is not an argument for a defenseman-based power play; the Caps have too much talent at forward for that. But there isn’t much of a threat from back there at the moment, either. It is very likely a reflection of how green the club is back there. Steve Eminger, Shaone Morrisonn, and Mike Green have 326 games of experience among them – less than full two seasons apiece. One might be looking down the road to see if these fellows get more opportunities and make more of what they get.

The Special Teams/Penalty Kill:

First ten games: 49-61 (80.3 percent)
Second ten games: 45-53 (84.9 percent)

There are several ways to look at this. First, fewer man-disadvantages is better. More than 13 percent fewer over the second ten games is a nice improvement. Still, giving up 5.3 opportunities a game is an area that can stand improvement.

Second, the Caps gave up 0.4 fewer goals per game in the second ten (0.8/game versus 1.2/game). Shaving almost half a goal off the goals against in any area is a plus, and this is a product of the fewer advantages opponents have.

Third, and this reaches back to the power play numbers – differential . . . the differential of power play goals to power play goals allowed in the first ten was -3 (9 for, 12 against).. In the second ten, it was even (8, both for an against). In the second ten, the special teams result allowed the Caps to play more at even strength, which plays toward their strength of being a hard working team that can apply pressure in a forechecking situation (although . . . read below).

Fourth, the Caps are just getting better at killing penalties. Even with the lower number of disadvantages, the Caps are killing off a larger share of what they face. Last year, the Caps killed fewer than 80 percent of the man-disadvantages they had – 28^th in the league. That they’d be ranked 17^th this morning – and moving up the charts – should be cause for optimism.

Even-Strength:

First ten games: 22 goals scored/20 allowed
Second ten games: 19 goals scored/25 allowed

OK, here’s the deal. This looks worse than it is. Carolina outscored the Caps, 6-0, at even strength in their two games in this stretch. That’s the difference (it might also be the difference in the teams, but that’s a discussion for another time). The Caps are generally competitive with most teams they face when skating even. At this stage of the development, “competitive” beats last year’s “plucky.”

In general:

The club is doing “better than expected.” If Caps fans had been polled in August and asked, would you consider an 8-6-6 mark after 20 games “excellent,” “good,” “fair,” or “poor,” I suspect most of the answers would show up in the “good” category. With that, The Peerless offers his 20-game grade for the team:

B

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Bruins . . . Again

So . . . you had a hard day at work yesterday. You get a night’s sleep, only to find out the next morning you get into your car to find that it has no first, second, or third gear . . . a spark plug isn’t firing . . . your brakes are iffy.

Hard to get to work, isn’t it?

That’s what the Caps found themselves with last night as they completed the second half of a back-to-back set of games, this one in Boston against the Bruins.

Usually, the Caps’ top line would be Alex Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Chris Clark. But, with Zubrus out with an upper or lower body injury, and Clark out with dental work, Ovechkin’s first shift was taken with Jakub Klepis centering him and Ben Clymer on the right side. By the time Ovechkin scored the game-tying goal late in the third, it was Klepis centering (having just hopped on in relief of Kris Beech) and Matt Pettinger on that line (Ovechkin scored with he and Pettinger having already been on the ice for almost three consecutive minutes). In between, it was catch as catch can.

The Caps are not a deep team, and to expect: a) a victory (hey, Peerless, you did), b) a victory on the road, c) a victory on the road in the second of back-to-back games, and d) a victory on the road in the second of back-to-back games with two thirds of the top line and a third of the second line out, is a bit of a reach.

Think of it another way . . . of the 12 forwards skating, five (Gordon, Laich, Beech, Klpeis, and Flieschmann) had a total of 347 games of experience apiece, less than a full season on average.

That’s not an excuse, it’s an observation. Meaning, there will be times when the fact that the Caps’ talent will not match whatever potential it has, and as younger guys are thrust into positions of greater responsibility, shortcomings will be clearer to see.

But all that said, the Caps earned a standings point – the second point they should have earned Wednesday night against this club. Klepis scored his first of the year on a fine move in close on Boston goalie Tim Thomas, and Ovechkin one-timed a nice cross-ice feed from Pettinger to tie the game and earn the point. Brent Johnson recorded another solid – if unlucky – performance in relief of Olaf Kolzig, victimized in overtime by the Caps’ inability to clear their own zone and a near hand-pass violation by Glen Murray, who scored the game winner.

We’re at the 20-game mark, and the Caps are 8-6-6 (we’ll have more to say about that in another entry). That six at the end of the line is the number that jumps out (the Caps are 1-6 in overtime/shootout games this year). If they’d have halved those six losses and earned three more standings points, they’d still be in seventh place in the conference this morning (tied with Montreal in wins and points, but Montreal would have a game in hand). But they could be tied with Atlanta for the division lead (if they’d won their two OT/SO games against Atlanta).

What the Caps lack at the moment is an ability to finish (not to mention score a shootout goal). It’s all part of the development. At the moment, though, in the larger scheme of things it’s hard to be disappointed with where this team is at.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Bruins, November 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Geez, this back-to-back stuff is hard on the fingers typing all this crap. The Peerless is thinking some soothing music is in order . . .

“Dude . . . fire up the iPod!”

Steve? Shouldn’t you be on a plane to Boston?

“Hey, it’s plot development . . . I’m fictionally there.”

Uh, OK . . . you got any Beethoven in there?

“Comin’ right up . . . how about the Eroica?”

Well, sure . . . I thought you guys were into a different sort of music.

“That? . . . oh, that was just for that DC Sports Bog guy’s benefit. We dig this stuff . . . hey, hey, Muirsie, not the von Karajan, the Solti version . . . what are you, nuts?”

“Solti?! . . . geez, Emmer, why go Chicago when you can go Berlin?”

“Hey, hey, hey . . . who put that crap on?!” (oh, geez, here comes Erskine … this could be ugly) “you don’t listen to Beethoven first thing in the morning; where’s the Mozart?”

“MOZART?!?!”

“Yeah . . . a little Die Zauberflöte is just the thing on a quiet morning.”

“Dude . . . Mozart is last week, we need something to wake up.”

“Herrrrrrrrrrrre’s Johnny . . . I got just the thing . . . “ (ok, so now here’s Brent Johnson)

“Geez, Johnny, no . . . we don’t want to hear the Berlioz again. Every time you watch ‘The Shining,’ we have to hear that witches sabbath junk for a week . . . “

While these guys are fighting over who gets control of the iPod, let’s look at tonight’s contest between the Caps and the Bruins in Boston . . .

The Caps come off a couple of disappointments – a 3-2 shootout loss to Boston on Wednesday and a 4-1 loss to Carolina last night, both at home. For this, the boys’ third game in four nights, they head out on the road. It isn’t the stuff of dreams, but it’s a chance to get all ornery and take out the week’s frustrations on what would seem to be an inferior opponent. But the B’s have hit their stride of late, coming into this contest on a three-game winning streak (something the Caps have not accomplished to date this season). Seeing as how the scores in those games were, in order, 4-3, 3-2, and 2-1, it is tempting, given The Peerless’ predilection toward numbers, to predict a 1-0 Bruin win. We’ll get to that later.

In those three games – in which the Bruins scored eight actual hockey goals (and a Bettman special of the shootout variety) – Phil Kessel, Patrice Bergeron, and Glen Murray have potted a pair apiece. Seeing as how those three generally play on three separate lines, one could say they are striking a blow for balance.

The Bruins’ power play certainly hasn’t been the root of their three-game success, not at 2-16 (12.5 percent). And their penalty kill, while an improvement over their still ghastly 75.8 percent for the season (29^th) hasn’t been earth-shaking at 82.4 percent in these last three games, either (14-for-17).

They’ve pretty much done it through attention to overall defense and goaltending . . . six goals on 88 shots allowed.

For the Caps, The Peerless has an idea . . . find another sponsor for the power play. This Pepco Energy Services Power Play thing isn’t working. In their last five games, 3-for-28 (10.7 percent), although they have registered a power play goal in each of the last three games.

Here is your stat to ponder . . . Alexander Ovechkin has not been held off the scoresheet in consecutive games this season. He was held without a point last evening (as he was in the last game in Carolina – in games not against Carolina this year, he’s registered a point in 13 of 16 games). He gets to wear Zdeno Chara on his name plate again this evening – a guy Ovechkin often finds difficulty playing against.

So that means . . . who else steps up? In the last ten games, the Caps have scored 26 goals. The top line of Ovechkin-Zubrus-Clark has 15 of those goals. Toss in the four contributed by Matt Pettinger, and what we’re left with is this . . . The other 14 skaters on the team have contributed seven goals . . . in ten games . . . and one goal – one – from a defenseman (Shaone Morrisson).

The lack of goals from defensemen is a bit troubling (five in all this season), but perhaps not surprising. Steve Eminger (none) is young and is probably still in that “learning when to jump into a play” stage. Mike Green, ditto (but he – with two goals – seems a bit further along). That Brian Pother has none so far isn’t as surprising as it might seem at first blush – he’s never scored more than five in a year. But what all this means is that clubs might be inclined to pack themselves in (is it me, of do a lot of shots from Caps forwards end up ricocheting off opponents?). If the Caps can establish a threat of any kind from the blueline, forwards might see a bit more clear ice.

This is one of those games a club has to find a way to grind out. It’s the third game in four nights, on the road, against a team on a bit of a hot streak facing your backup goaltender (assuming Johnson gets the start). Some call that a recipe for disappointment. The Peerless calls it, “made to order.”

Caps 2 – Bruins 1.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. 'Canes

5-0 . . . 4-1.

That, folks, is the difference between knowing how to do a thing and learning how to do a thing.

It serves little use to try to assign “blame” to any player or aspect of the Caps game in the 4-1 whupping they took at the hands of Carolina last night. Suffice it to say, Carolina is better and leave it at that. Carolina has earned – as if a Stanley Cup isn’t enough to demonstrate – their advanced degree in “hockey.” The Caps are still, in many respects, a group of underclassmen.

If it wasn’t the Caps on the other end of the scoreboard, it could be said that it was a treat to watch the ‘Canes play the game they played – patient, efficient, effective. I had the feeling after about ten minutes of the first period that it was just a matter of time. The difference in the teams came down to this – the Caps spent a lot of energy chasing the play, the Hurricanes spent their time letting the play come to them. They owned the puck, they tilted the ice toward Olaf Kolzig, they had an answer for everything the Caps tried.

That’s not to say that the Hurricanes were dominating in the Buffalo beating Philly, 9-1 sense. They weren’t. They played the game they had to play on the road to win – excellent team defense and opportunistic offense. When finally presented with chances – gift wrapped in the form of four power plays in the second – they took advantage, netting two goals in 1:46. Game over, drive safely.

The stats of the night for the Caps, in an odd way, belong to Alex Ovechkin – 18:48 and three. That would be ice time and shots on goal. He had only five shifts in the second, one of those in the last 21 seconds of the period. Hard to make a difference sitting on the bench.

I don’t feel nearly as bad about this loss as I do the shootout loss to Boston, an opponent the Caps should have buried (and frankly, should bury tonight). If Carolina plays at or close to the top of their game, and the Caps do likewise, Carolina is going to win most games. That’s just a fact of life at this stage of the teams’ respective states of development. But the Caps competed. They didn’t play as if in awe of these guys (they outhit them, 24-16, although Carolina isn’t generally a team given to a lot of hitting). John Erskine and Alex Ovechkin led with three hits apiece, but even Richard Zednik got in on the fun with three of his own. But that isn’t much solace when you get only 22 shots on goal, only four of those from your second line (Semin, Beech, Pettinger).

This goes into the category of “lesson given, lesson learned.”

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, November 17th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

It’s back to divisional play tonight as the Caps host Carolina. The Canes are . . . what’s this? It’s . . . Knute? Knute Rockne? Coach, shouldn’t you be haunting the Notre Dame locker room or painting graffiti on Touchdown Jesus? You have something to say to the boys?

“Well, boys ... I haven't a thing to say . . . played a great game against Boston...all of you.

“Great game.

“I guess we just can't expect to win ‘em all . . . I'm going to tell you something I've kept to myself for years -- None of you ever knew Kip Miller. It was long before your time. But you know what a tradition he is in Washington . . . and the last thing he said to me – ‘Rock,’ he said – ‘sometime, when the team is up against it -- and the breaks are beating the boys -- tell them to go out there with all they got and win just one for the Kipper... I don't know where I'll be then, Rock’, he said – ‘but I'll know about it - and I'll be happy.’

Well . . . there you have it. Tonight, it’s “Win one for the Kipper.” And the boys can do it, even though it will be a tough slog. The Hurricanes are 4-1-1 in their last six games, 6-2-1 in their last nine, starting to show the consistent high level of play befitting a defending Stanley Cup champion. Included in that run is a 5-0 whacking of the Caps last week, but it isn’t as if they’ve spared others their wrath. In these six games, they outscored their opponents, 22-14.

The re-emergence of the Hurricanes is largely a product of the play of two cornerstones – center Rod Brind’Amour and goalie Cam Ward. Brind’Amour has taken the attack on his back in recent games, going 6-9-15, +4 in his last nine contests. He has won a whopping 60.7 percent of his faceoffs this season and leads the team in average ice time with 23:42 of action per game. With apologies to the young Eric Staal (who continues to have a tendency to be a minus player despite good scoring numbers), and the performance of Ray Whitney and Justin Williams so far, as goes Brind’Amour, so goes the ‘Canes’ attack.

But that shouldn’t diminish the recent efforts of Cam Ward at the other end, either. Ward has been the goalie of record in each of the games in this 6-2-1 nine game stretch. He hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s been steady enough – 2.52, .902. But if one looks deeper – past Ward’s numbers -- there is another stat worth noting . . . in Ward’s first nine games (4-4-1, 3.30, .896) he faced 31.7 shots per 60 minutes. In the last nine (6-2-1, 2.52, .902) he’s faced 26.0 shots per 60 minutes. His save percentage is marginally higher in this latest stretch, but facing fewer shots (only once has he faced more than 30 shots – he lost, giving up 6 goals to Buffalo) he’s had more success in the win column. Carolina has been playing more complete games, especially at the defensive end, and it shows in the results.

For the Caps, the object of the exercise is to play for 60 minutes. Now, that has an entirely different connotation than what you’re probably thinking. Usually, “playing 60 minutes” means giving maximum effort for the entire contest. No . . . not here. It means not going to an extra session. Once that clock ticks “60:01,” the Caps are in trouble. The club is 1-5 in extra session games this year, 0-4 in shootouts. When the game is confined to 60 minutes, the Caps are 7-5 (that’s a 96-point, likely playoff pace over 82 games).

But enough despair. Mike Vogel, in his Caps Gameday column, makes a salient point. The Caps are 15-8-8 in their last 31 games. That is a 101-point pace, kids. And 38 games – largely with the same players in key roles – is enough to think that this is not a fluke. We might be at the point of discarding this notion that the Caps are bottom-dwellers in the league and are at the point where, if they can’t yet dominate, they can compete with just about anyone on a night-to-night basis.

The object, in the face of this sustained level of performance, is believing that fact, that this club can compete with the playoff teams. There is much work to do, but a club with an ethic of hard work, a reputation as difficult to play against, and a growing cadre of skilled players does – in The Peerless’ mind – validate the strategy of growing the club from within and letting the development take its own pace. It’d be nice, though, to stick one in the Canes' ear-hole tonight. It’ll be difficult, and it will be close, but at the end of the night . . .

Caps 3 – ‘Canes 2.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Bruins

Half a loaf.

It’s better than none, but it gets stale quickly, too. The Caps left another standings point lying at the side of the road as a result of both their inability to take advantage of an inferior opponent early and their inability to convert in the shutout . . . uh, shootout (you’ll pardon The Peerless for the slip of the keystroke).

The Peerless is of two minds about this game. Let’s get the bad out of the way first. The Caps started quickly, dominating the first half dozen minutes, then a too-many-men penalty expired, leaving Phil Kessel to skate out the box, collect a pass from Glen Murray, and skate in almost unimpeded on Olaf Kolzig. Kessel might have his faults, but he is a talented offensive player – giving him time and space to collect himself for a one-on-the-goalie isn’t the wisest course of action if you’re a Caps fan.

Follow that up with Brad Stuart leaning into one that rocketed over the outstretched glove of a screened Kolzig, and it looked as if the competitive portion of the game would end early. But on the good side, the Caps – like a fighter – took the punch, weathered the storm, and fought back to halve the lead on a shorthanded shake-and-bake from Matt Pettinger.

Dainius Zubrus scored the obligatory convert-the-cross-ice-pass-from-Alex-Ovechkin in the second to tie the game, but the Caps should have had more. You ever see a toddler taking his first uneasy steps? That’s kind of the style Tim Thomas was employing in goal. Arms waving, legs splaying, pucks left around like so many toys on the family room floor . . . the Caps had more rebounds than you’d probably see at a Wizards game and could convert none of them. At that point, one had to believe (well, I had to believe) the Caps would be lucky to get out of this game with a point.

But that they did when the game ended in regulation. After an inconsequential overtime (not without its Tim Thomas moment when he almost misplayed an Ovechkin shot into the game-losing goal for Boston), we went to the gimmick round. The Caps came in oh-fer-seven on the season and three shutout, uh . . . shootout losses. The three Caps selected to participate in Bettman’s Folly – Alexander Semin, Alexander Ovechkin, and Matt Pettinger – were a combined oh-fer-six. A couple of minutes later, it was oh-fer-nine. Patrice Bergeron managed the only tally on the other side – slipping the puck between Kolzig’s pads as the goalie was sliding across the crease – and that was that, "3"-2.

They fought hard to grind out a point when the puck was taking odd bounces (usually off some part of Thomas’ equipment in the form of juicy rebounds the Caps couldn’t corral), but this was an opponent they should have buried, too. The Peerless thinks it says something positive about this team that one could discuss a game like this – one in which the Caps managed a standings point – and still think of it as unsatisfying. The expectations are growing for this club. We’re starting to expect them to do better.

Your stat of the game . . . 59. That is the percentage of faceoffs the Bruins won. It’s hard to establish any offensive continuity when you’re starting most plays playing defense. Boyd Gordon, who has made something of a cottage industry out of winning faceoffs, lost 16 of 23.

If one looks at the shift chart for the game, there is cause for concern. First, the odd. Donald Brashear did not skate a shift in the last 23 minutes of skating time (18 minutes of the third and the five minute overtime). Tomas Flesichmann didn’t skate a shift in the last dozen minutes of regulation (he did get one in overtime). Now, the concern part – Dainius Zubrus did not take the ice for the last 16 minutes of skating time (11 minutes of regulation, five in the overtime). Given the chemistry he and Ovechkin share at the moment, an injury – and at the moment, we’re not aware what that is – would cripple the Caps, who don’t exactly have a cupboard full of NHL-caliber top line centers at the moment.

All in all, it was a forgettable evening for the Caps, who got a point but should have had more. One wonders, should we come to the end of the season, and the Caps are one point in the playoffs or one point out, we might come back to this game as the reason – for either result.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Bruins, November 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Well, here we are . . . 8-5-4 . . . 20 points . . . the best start for the good guys in more than a decade. Still, 17 games does not make a season, and tonight it is the well rested Boston Bruins visiting VerMCIzon Center. The B’s have played fewer games – 14 – than any other team in the league, and only the Islanders have played as few road games (6). Tonight will be only the second Bruins’ road game in the last month. It could be a difficult time for –

“on the road again . . . just can't wait to get on the road again
The life I love is playin' hockey with my friends
And I can't wait to get on the road again . . . “

Willie! . . . I didn’t know you were a hockey fan.

“My heroes have always been goalies.
And they still are, it seems.
Sadly, in search of, but one step in back of,
Themselves and their glove savin’ dreams.”

Really . . . so you’re a goalie at heart, eh . . . how long have you been a hockey fan?

“Even when forever ends for me today . . . How long is forever this time . . . “

So, which team do you follow?

“Blackhawks are special with their own brand of misery . . . from being a loser too long.”

I guess that makes for some long winter nights, huh?

“I think of the hearts they have broken
And the golden chances that have passed them by
The dreams they once made now are over
As empty as the bubbles in my beer...”

Any teams you’re especially not fond of?

“Mama don't let your babies grow up to be Pens fans
Don't let 'em watch Crosby and wear Penguin shirts
They’ll only grow up to be wearin’ fine skirts . . .”

Words to live by . . . so lets’ get to the game . . .

Boston comes in 5-7-2 (12 points), propped up only by the Flyers in the 15-team Eastern Conference. They’re 2-2-1 in their last five, though, which for this club is indicative of improvement. While the Bruins are not an especially bad team on offense (15th in goals-per-game scored), they are a disaster on skates on defense. Their 3.93 goals-per-game allowed figure is 29th in the league. Their penalty killing of 75.3 percent is dead last. Their road penalty killing figure of 71.0 percent doesn’t really even merit the term “dead last” (although they are) . . . “ghastly,” “putrid,” and “Dear God, they stink on toast” come to mind.

The goaltending for Boston has been predictably bad, given the team-wide defensive statistics. It seems they are having more than a little difficulty settling on a number one goalie. Hannu Toivonen – a goalie of considerable promise – is 4.20 with a .869 save percentage. In his last two outings – a loss to Buffalo and a no-decision against Tampa Bay – he gave up nine goals on 38 shots in just less than 63 total minutes . . . that’s an 8.59 GAA, .763 save percentage. You may insert your own adjective here to describe just how bad that is. Tim Thomas is 3-3-2, 3.64, .887, which while an improvement, is not making anyone think, “Gerry Cheevers.” Since taking over in relief from Toivonen in the Tampa Bay game on November 4th, he’s 2-1 (a no-decision against Toronto), 5.26, .869. Brian Finley, who took the loss in relief of Thomas against Tampa, gave up only two goals in 39 minutes – qualifications for the Vezina among this group.

Enter Phillippe Sauve, plucked from the desert of Phoenix earlier this week, but he was sent to Providence. Uh, why? He’s allergic to baked beans, or something? Heaven only knows who the Bruins will start in goal, but the question is, will it matter?

All this means is that the Caps had better not be Ottawa-ing themselves into thinking, “hey, we’re good, we’re fine, we’re gonna have a high old time.” The Caps don’t have enough talent to win on talent alone (sorry, Herb…it seemed the right time to use that line). But this can be a big night for Alexander Ovechkin (if he can get out from under the shadow of Zdeno Chara) and the rest of the Caps. The Caps are 6-3-1 in their last 10 outings, 2-1-0 at home. The key here has been the play of goaltender, Olaf Kolzig. In those ten games, Kolzig has a record of 4-1-1 (plus a no-decision against Ottawa), over which time he has a 2.56 GAA, .938. Facing more than 41 shots per 60 minutes over this stretch has the makings of a problem down the road, but he’s been more than equal to the task recently.

Boston is an average offensive team playing against a goaltender (assuming Kolzig gets the start) who is hot. Washington is a better offensive team (almost a third-of-a-goal per game more than the Bruins) playing against a team with defense and goaltending issues.

If the Caps come out flat, they are certainly ripe to be plucked. But if they come out with a strong effort, Boston is not – by virtue of recent performances – in their class.

Caps 5 – Bruins 1.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Panthers

In case anyone is paying attention, that’s 6-3-1 in their last ten games, seven of them on the road. It was a very efficient game (except for those 45 shots on goal, but we quibble) the Caps played in beating Florida, 4-1. But let’s take a look at that larger picture for a moment . . . what jumps out of the numbers? Well, they’ve been shorthanded 53 times in that span (5.3 per game). Compare that with 41 in their first seven games (5.9 per game). That’s an improvement of more than ten percent. The number is even more striking in the last five – a total of 23 times shorthanded (4.6 per game).

Think that doesn’t matter? In those first seven games, the penalty kill was 33 for 41 (75.6 percent). In the last ten, it’s been 45 for 53 (84.9 percent), and in the last five 19 for 23 (82.6 percent). Fewer chances mean fresher penalty killers means more effective penalty killing. While it’s nice to see Alexander Ovechkin and Dainius Zubrus potting goals, and Matt Pettinger taking up where he left off last year, efficient and effective penalty killing will likely be a more important ingredient to success this year over the long run, given the way the game is played these days.

As for the game, again it was the Alex and Zubie Show . . . Ovechkin with a goal and a helper, Zubrus with a pair of goals. But how about a tip of the hat to Alexander Semin? If you were watching carefully on the Caps’ third goal, there was Semin with the puck along the left wing boards at the Florida line. He braced himself to take a hit and still managed to whip the puck backward through his legs to Ovechkin, who created some space to send a diagonal pass to Zubrus, who had merely to rifle the puck into the open net from low in the right wing circle. That gets the play of the game and a slice o’ pie from The Peerless.

And, in case you’re still paying attention, Olaf Kolzig is (with the loud exception of the Ottawa game) in something of a zone. In his last seven starts, he is 4-1-1 (he got a no-decision against Ottawa), 2.56, .938. He’s faced 41.1 shots per 60 minutes over that stretch, which is quite a workload. If that was 31.1 shots per game -- with the same save percentage -- that GAA would be 1.83 (something to think about).

Brian Pothier watch . . . no missed shots last night.

John Erskine watch . . . two hits, three blocked shots, and a penalty . . . it’s not the stuff of an “Erskine Hat Trick,” but it was a nice game.

Chris Gratton won 14 of 18 faceoffs. This, no doubt, will spur calls of Caps fans to “get this guy, McPhee.” The Peerless would sooner gargle with battery acid, but that’s just him.

All in all, it was one of those games where the goalie shined, and all the skaters played their roles. It’s hard to argue with that as a road recipe for success. Next up, the Bruins at home and a chance to see how Zdeno Chara looks in black and gold.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, November 13th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Folks often ask me, “Peerless, where do you get the subjects for your gameday columns?”

Well, truth be told, they usually just pop into my head, like a bad lyric from a commercial jingle. Kind of like . . .

“When you say ‘Caps,’
You've said a lot of things nobody else can say
When you say ‘Caps,’
You've said you care enough to only want the Stanley Cup
When you say ‘Caps Hockey,’
You've said it all”

Or . . .

“My hockey team has a first name
I say it “WASH-ING-TON”
My hockey team has a second name
I say it “CAP-I-TALS”
Oh, I love to watch ‘em everyday
And if you ask me why, I'll say
Cause Washington just has a way
No B O L O G N . . . eh?”

Or . . .

Hockey . . . Capitals Hockey.
What kinds of fans watch Capitals hockey?
Fat fans, skinny fans, fans who climb on rocks . . .
Tough fans, sissy fans, even fans with chicken pox love hockey, Capitals hockey . . .
The game fans love to bite.

Ok, we’re still working on that one.

Meanwhile . . . tonight the Caps visit the land of early-bird dinners and adult communities (which pretty much describes the Panther locker room with the likes of Gary Roberts and Joe Nieuwendyk on the roster). The Panthers enter tonight’s play 12^th in the Eastern Conference, which is actually a step back from where they finished last year. They have really been treading water lately – 2-3-3 in their last eight games – largely against pretty good teams (they’ve beaten the Rangers and Maple Leafs and have earned points in other games against the Sabres and the Rangers once more).

If there is one difference between last year and this, it is in goals allowed. Not having Roberto Luongo has made a difference – not a profound one, but enough. The Panthers are 22^nd in goals allowed per game (3.28), whereas they were 16^th last year (3.08). The special teams are of a split personality. While the penalty killing unit is rather average at best (79.8 percent – 25^th in the league), the power play has shined (21.6 percent – 2^nd), although it has only 25 opportunities in its last eight games. That power play has been remarkable consistent as well – 21.6% at home, 21.6 percent on the road (coincidentally, both are 8-for-37).

The Panthers, though, aren’t especially adept at holding a lead. They are 26^th in the league when scoring first, 19^th when leading after one period. It’s just as bad when they give up the first goal – they are 25^th in the league in winning percentage when trailing first.

This is not a team with an especially dangerous scorer at the moment (Olli Jokinen notwithstanding). No player is on a pace for 30 goals, no player is on a pace for 75 points. With Todd Bertuzzi out (back) and Joe Nieuwendyk only just returning from injury (hip), it isn’t a deep team at forward these days.

For the Caps, it’s all a matter of consistency. After the wake-up slap in the face applied by Carolina, the Caps rebounded smartly with a superb effort Saturday in the 3-1 win over the Rangers. Applying that effort is what will yield results. While the Caps earned a few standings points early without necessarily getting their “A” game, that isn’t a long term recipe for success on a team whose skill level isn’t yet what it could be.

This is another game the Caps should win, even on the road. They are a better 5-on-5 squad, and their penalty killing unit is slowly marching up the rankings. Olaf Kolzig, despite the bleating of some among Caps fans, has had four sterling outings in his last six games (3-0-1, 1.96, .954 in those games) with an average game and a stinker thrown in. The Caps can leap-frog Tampa with a win, and it says here that they will . . . .

Caps 5 – Panthers 2

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Rangers

Don’t you love it when a good plan comes together? Against a superior skilled team, but one playing its third road game in four nights, the Caps played just the kind of game they had to have to earn two points. It would be hard to find fault with the game (ok, we’ll mention the 42 shots against here, and then we’ll leave it alone). One could almost go down the lineup and find something good to say about everyone . . .

Brian Pothier had more than 30 minutes of ice time in which he contributed four blocked shots and two hits . . .

John Erskine played a physical presence against a club that plainly doesn’t have much desire for confronting one . . .

Jamie Heward returned from spending one game nursing a gash on his arm and was +2 . . .

Alexander Ovechkin had the game winner on a sneaky shot that handcuffed Ranger goalie Henrik Lundqvist . . .

Dainius Zubrus won 17 of 25 draws and had the primary assist on the game winner . . .

Matt Bradley was credited with two hits (it could have been more) . . .

Boyd Gordon broke his personal 71-game schneid by pilfering the puck from Sandis Ozolinsh and whacking it past Lundqvist on the second try – winning nine of 11 draws came in handy, too, not to mention getting more PK time than any other forward . . .

Brian Sutherby won five of eight draws and as being mic’ed up for the game indicates, is growing into quite the leader on the ice and on the bench . . .

Chris Clark spent the night fishing the puck out of hard places and outworking his Ranger counterparts . . .

Matt Pettinger gave the club a goal from somewhere other than the top line on a fine move – a goal scorer’s move – to use Marek Malik as a screen – and led the team in shots . . .

Shaone Morrisonn showed that last year’s efforts against Jaromir Jagr were no fluke, shadowing the big rig all over the offensive zone and holding him to three inconsequential shots . . .

Ben Clymer contributed a couple of hits and a takeaway, and jumped in when a Ranger took a run at Brian Sutherby’s legs . . .

Alexander Semin had a few fine chances early and a whopping 11:45 of power play time . . .

Jakub Klepis, although his ice time was diminished in the last two periods, created some chances in the first . . .

Tomas Fleischmann showed some offensive jump early (although he suffered similar ice time problems as the game wore on) . . .

Steve Eminger had a strong game paired with John Erskine . . .

Mike Green was a +2 on the evening . . .

Donald Brashear had his first kerfuffle of the season, giving Colton Orr a solid thumping, and contributing a lot of energy in limited ice time . . .

And Olaf Kolzig was simply amazing, turning away 41 of 42 shots (36 of 37 in the last two periods) . . .

As for the keys we talked about yesterday . . .

-- Jump on the Rangers early: The Caps outshot the Rangers 17-5 in the first to put the visitors back on their heels.

-- Stay out of the box: The Rangers had four advantages, scoring only on a power play late when Lundqvist was pulled to make it a 6-on-4.

-- Get some production out of another line: Matt Pettinger had what was the game-clinching goal in the third.

-- Play feisty: Donald Brashear set the tone inside of three minutes into the game with his beatdown (literally) of Colton Orr, but it was not as if he was alone. The Caps were in the Rangers’ faces early and often, finishing checks and making it difficult for the Blueshirts to get out of their own end.

It was a team effort all around, just the kind of effort the boys needed after the problems they had in Carolina. Now, it’s Florida on Monday and a chance to show that they can avoid a let down against a weaker opponent after four straight against teams that earned 100 or more points last year.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Rangers, November 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

We’re coming to you . . . live, from the virtual opening of the Caps’ new training facility here Ballston. The Peerless says “virtual” because he really is at his keyboard and nowhere near Arlington, Virginia.

Tonight, the Caps take on the storied New York Rangers, one of the marquee franchises of the National Hockey Lea—

“whaddyamean, ‘one of’ . . . they are THE franchise, the rest are just hockey teams.”

Why, Uncle Lar . . . you’re covering the game in person tonight?

“You bet . . . any time I can see the greatest team in the history of the sport led by the greatest player in the history of the sport wearing the greatest uniform in the history of the sport, I . . . I . . . well, I just get all –sniffsniff – teary-eyed.”

There there, big guy. I notice that the Rangers are on quite a run – four straight road wins and points in their last five games. To what do you attribute this success?

“Jaromir Jagr . . . he’s 2-6-8, +2 in those games, not to mention I just find him dreamy.”

You want to keep the drool off my keyboard, there, Lar?

“Sorry . . . I just get all oogy whenever I think of those legs churning and those broad shoulders fighting off checks, and . . .

Hey, hey, hey, this is a family column, pal.

“Sorry . . . “

He’s not the only one having a good run of luck . . .

“Yeah, Michael Nylander is 3-6-9, +2 on this five game run, too . . . hey, both those guys played for your Caps not so long ago, eh?”

Well, “played” is in the eye of the beholder.

“Heh-heh – nice moves there . . . what do you have for all those moves, huh?”

Stephen Werner and Francois Bouchard.

“Stephen Werner? . . . and some guy I saw on ‘The Food Channel?’”

Yeah . . . for Jagr, we got nothing, unless you’re counting one glorious year of Frantisek Kucera . . . we got Nylander and a third from Chicago when he came here – that’s Stephen Werner. We got a second in 2006 when we moved him to Boston – that’s Bouchard.

“Hey, let’s not forget the money you’re still paying on Jagr.”

We won’t as long as you’re here, will we, Lar?

“Not a chance . . . “

For the Caps, nothing gets better than ending a long winless streak in Philadelphia and wiping out a three-goal deficit at home against Ottawa. And nothing goes splat like getting shut out in Carolina. Makes one wonder which club will be showing up for Washington this evening. While we’re looking at five-game totals, Alexander Ovechkin is 4-4-8, even, in his last five (though like the rest of the club, held scoreless in his last one). Among the others on the top line, Chris Clark is 2-3-5, +3; and Dainius Zubrus is 4-1-5, even. That’s ten of the Caps’ last 16 goals. Two of those last 16 – coming from Richard Zednik – are on the bench (he is listed as day-to-day with the fearsome “upper body injury”). Ben Clymer has two, Matt Pettinger and Shaone Morrisonn the others. See a problem here? If the first line gets shut down – and it had a total of six shots against Carolina – the Caps don’t score.

Part of the problem is that the club is in a sense auditioning a second line. Jakub Klepis and Tomas Fleischmann are being given that responsibility – chaperoned by Matt Pettinger – to see if they can rekindle the chemistry they’ve enjoyed at other stops along the way. So far, each has shown a glimmer of their ability, but neither have been able to sustain much in terms of offense.

For the Caps, the keys are these:

-- Jump on the Rangers early: This will be the Rangers’ third road game in four nights. And, they are old among their key forwards (Jagr (34), Nylander (34), Martin Straka (34), and Brendan Shanahan (37). It doesn’t hurt that all four are being asked to log more than 20 minutes a night, either.

-- Stay out of the box! Nine of the Rangers’ 18 goals in their last five games have been scored with the man-advantage. They are 9-for-32 over that stretch – 28.1 percent. If the Caps are short a man more than, say, five times, this could be a difficult night.

-- Get some production out of another line: In the first contest between these clubs on opening night, the top line of Ovechkin-Zubrus-Zednik was held to four shots and no points. Chris Clark replaced Zednik on the top line thereafter, but the logic is still the same for an opponent. Keep the Caps’ top line clean on the scoresheet, you’re probably going to win.

-- Play feisty: This is the balancing act the Caps have to manage. The Rangers are not an especially physical team. They have a reputation of being one that can be pushed around. If the Caps can do that – and stay out of the box – it could wear the Rangers down and open things up for the Caps’

This is a game the Caps should win, frankly, despite the Rangers’ string of late. This would be especially the case if the Rangers choose to give Henrik Lundqvist a break and start Kevin Weekes, who has had little luck against Washington (2-13-1 lifetime).

Caps 4 – Rangers 2

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Hurricanes

One step forward, one step back . . .

Last night, if it needs to be said, was the latter. Brent Johnson showed up . . . the rest of the club? Pretty much left their game in DC. It’d be hard to find much in the way of a silver lining in that dark cloud of a 5-0 pasting at the hands of the Carolina Hurricanes. I guess one thing that could be said is that as bad as the Caps were, they were still in it deep into the third period (Carolina didn’t score their third goal until nearly half-way through the last frame).

The Caps spread around the good cheer, too. Mike Green was the only defenseman not on the ice for any Carolina goal. Only Alex Ovechkin, Jakub Klepis, and Tomas Fleischmann were spared among the forwards.

It was a team loss.

Turning point . . . a stretch of 3:45 beginning at the 7:33 mark of the second period with Carolina clinging to a 1-0 lead. Glen Wesley, Chad LaRose, and Niclas Wallin took consecutive penalties giving the Caps uninterrupted power play time, including a full two-minute 5-on-3 in the middle of all of that. And they got squadoosh. Alexander Semin, Alexander Ovechkin, and Dainius Zubrus had consecutive shots in an 18 second span early in the power play – none solved Cam Ward. Ovechkin had another shot later in the advantage, but the power play looked terrible. It would be the last advantage the Caps would have. When Eric Cole scored his second of the game less than two minutes from intermission, the rest of the air left the Caps’ balloon.

Perhaps the boys were feeling a little too good about themselves after the comeback win against Ottawa on Monday. Maybe it was bad barbecue. Maybe it was the shock of playing in front of a packed house in a Southeast Division venue. Whatever it was, it was a wake-up call. The Caps are what they are – a team of some promise that will, from time to time, show glimpses of that promise (as they did in their last two games against Philadelphia and Ottawa). But they are very much a work in progress that will win more games on grit and perseverance than on skill. All were lacking to an extent last night, save for Brent Johnson.

Your odd stat for the night – 17:47. That was Alexander Ovechkin’s ice time. He had only three shifts (two abbreviated) in the last dozen minutes – the Caps weren’t killing any power plays, either (only a penalty coming with 21 seconds left). That tells me he’s still nicked, that his ice time is being marshaled.

Saturday, it’s the Rangers, something of a disappointment to start the year, but they are 6-3-1 in their last ten. No rest for the Caps this weekend.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, Nov. 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

OK, so it’s been a few days, and the mail is piling up, so let’s go to the mail bag and see what’s on fans’ minds . . .

Mr. Stompin’ Tom C. writes . . . “why do all the arenas play that ear-splitting rock-and-roll music? What does that have to do with hockey? It seems like a waste of time when you have a perfectly good ‘hockey song’ you could sing at the intermissions and stops in play. What do you think, Mr. Peerless?”

Well, Mr. Stompin, hello out there, we're on the air, it's a thrill to read your mail.
My BP grows, ‘cuz your song blows, and your spleen I’d like to impale.

Here’s one from a “Johnny B” of Bristol, Connecticut . . .

“I think that I shall never see
A hockey player like Sid-nee . . . “

rrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrip . . .

Mr. S. Hawking sends this in from Cambridge, United Kingdom . . .

“The whole history of science has been the gradual realization that events do not happen in an arbitrary manner, but that they reflect a certain underlying order, which may or may not be divinely inspired. I believe this explains Rico Fata.”

Well, that’s a load off my mind.

Mr. Dan R. of New York writes . . .

“I’ve had a lot of time on my hands lately, and I had a chance to see a few hockey games. I must say, those guys skate hotter than a Times Square Rolex . . . the playoff race is humming along like Ray Charles . . . it’s swinging like Count Basie. We’re going to get to the last week, and it’ll be like a sauna for the playoff candidates, uh, contenders, just wait and sweat. But those Sabres are just sweeping across the schedule like a big wheel through a cotton field. And I really like that Ovechkin kid – I’d rather walk through a furnace in a gasoline suit than get hit by that kid. I’m not saying he’s going to win the MVP award, but if you had to bet the double-wide, you’d have to bet he’d win. But it you try to read the tea leaves before the cup is done, you can get yourself burned . . . “

Dan, Dan, get a grip . . . you’re not doing elections anymore, let it go . . .

As for the game, the Caps are looking to pick up a couple of points at the expense of a division opponent, the defending Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes. The ‘Canes occupy the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference this morning and are 5-3-2 in their last ten contests. If there has been a problem with the club this season, it’s been defense. They are 25th in the league in goals allowed per game. They’ve had a particularly difficult time at home where they’ve yielded 19 goals in five games. It hasn’t necessarily been a special teams problem, as they are 12th in penalty killing this year. The problem appears a five-on-five problem – the club is 22nd in goals for/goals against ratio. What the Hurricanes do well is protect a lead. They are unbeaten when leading after one period and when leading after two. Conversely, they are not an especially capable comeback team at the moment – 17th in the league when trailing first.

Carolina does have a capable offense led by the usual suspects – Rod Brind’Amour and Ray Whitney lead the team with identical 5-15-20 scoring lines. Eric Staal leads with eight goals. The surprise is right wing Scott Walker who has eight goals thus far and is on a pace to net 41 – his career high is 25, which he accomplished twice in Nashville (most recently in 2003-2004).

Cam Ward has manned the nets in 14 of 16 games so far, and while he has not played in the otherworldly manner that earned him the Conn Smythe Trophy in last spring’s Stanley Cup tournament, he has proven capable of shouldering the heavy netminding load. He numbers are seven wins, five losses, with 3.10 and .897 for goals against and save percentage for the season, but in his last five he is 3-1-1, 2.76, .899 (one might note, in only one of those games did he face more than 30 shots).

The Caps come into the game eighth in league scoring, 21st in goals allowed (both “per game”). They are firmly in the middle of the pack on special teams (14th in power play, 16th in penalty killing). In fact, if one looks at team-wide numbers, the Caps are remarkably (one might say, pleasantly, given their recent history of ineptitude) consistent. They rest in the middle of the pack in almost every measure one can think of.

Clearly, Alexander Ovechkin is the key here for the Caps' attack. In 14 games, he’s been held off the scoresheet only three times, and he has multi-point games in five of his last six contests (5-5-10, even). More surprising in his consistency is Chris Clark – he also has been held scoreless only three times this year in going 5-9-14. Alexander Semin returned to the scoresheet after a five game hiatus with a three-assist night against Ottawa in the 4-3 overtime win on Monday. Still if you look at some broader measures, the persistent problem of lack of balance is apparent. The top line of Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Chris Clark is a combined 24-21-45, +4. The second line that played on Monday – Tomas Fleischmann, Jakub Klepis, and Matt Pettinger – is a combined 1-4-5, -4. Even accounting for the smaller number of games these players have participated in, if you compared them on an equivalent games-played basis with the top line, they’d be 2-10-12, -11.

Olaf Kolzig was equal parts snakebit (Shaone Morrisonn losing his footing to allow Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson team up on a goal, for instance) and bad (the last goal, surrendered to Dany Heatley, before he was lifted for Brent Johnson) on Monday against Ottawa. It was his worst outing since giving up six goals to Tampa Bay on October 21st. In the four games in-between, however, Kolzig was 2-1-1, .933. Which Kolzig shows up (given his career success against Carolina, he would be expected to get the start) will be the biggest factor in this game.

The simple road strategy applies here – get a lead, take the fans out of the game (since this is only their sixth chance to see the Hurricanes this year, they should be in a boisterous mood), play sound defense. All that makes for a lower scoring game . . .

Caps 3 – Hurricanes 1.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Senators

A show of hands . . . how many of you were watching on TV last night and thought, “geez, they’re going to run us out of the building?” How many of you in the arena were thinking, “well, if I leave now, I can catch the rest of ‘Deal or No Deal?’”

Five shots, three goals. It was conjuring visions of November 13, 2001 . . . and an 11-5 pasting at the hands of the Ottawa Senators.

But if there is a rallying cry for this bunch, it’s “never give up – never surrender!” Nothing could have illustrated that more than the Caps’ plugging away over the rest of the first period, finally getting a deflection by Matt Pettinger on a shot taken by Jamie Heward at the top of the offensive zone with only 46 seconds left in the frame. But the hard work was done by Mike Green, who fought off the Senator defense to maintain possession of the puck, eventually pushing it out to Heward at the Ottawa blue line. That was the part that was probably lost in the telling, and ultimately was probably the most important play of the night. If the Caps go to the locker room down 3-0, then the game probably takes an entirely different course.

Deflections and mis-hits would play a big part of this game. The Caps’ second goal would come on a deft deflection by Alexander Ovechkin of a drive by Alexander Semin from the left wing circle. Senator goalie Martin Gerber barely flinched as the puck flew over his right pad as the deficit was cut to one.

But the Caps then found themselves – especially Alexander Semin – snakebit in trying to get off shots. Semin, who was quite entertaining in his making Senators defend air as he stickhandled around them, whiffed on or mis-hit no fewer than three excellent chances from the slot or from the right wing circle. On a couple of other occasions, his effort to move into a better shooting position only provided the Senators time to take space away. But even here, Semin showed a certain resiliency that characterized the rest of the club. His inability to find the back of the net did not diminish his effort.

The Caps would be rewarded – on another deflection – late in the third after Ottawa defenseman Chris Phillips took a tripping penalty. Alexander Ovechkin, who had some fine opportunities to rifle wrist shots from the left wing circle all night (but usually finding his efforts blocked), sent a harmless enough looking shot from the far edge of the left wing circle. The puck threaded its way through a maze of legs and appeared to surprise Gerber in that the puck got through. Gerber bollixed up the save, and the puck deflected off a pad into the net.

Frankly, anything after that was gravy. A point – even at home – in a game in which the club was left for dead less than a dozen minutes in would have been a moral victory. But, the days of “moral” victories appear at an end. The club is not satisfied with “winning lite.” The Caps took the play to the Senators, almost scoring on the first shift as Ovechkin had a fine chance from in close. Barely a minute later, though, Alexander Semin threw the puck to the net from the right wing boards. Chris Clark got a blade on the puck on its way through from about 25 feet out, and the biscuit bounced past a frustrated Gerber, who tried to smash his stick over the crossbar in frustration (that didn’t seem to work, either).

It would be easy to give the Caps credit for keeping their focus and fighting back – and they deserve those accolades. But The Peerless couldn’t help but remember who is behind the Ottawa bench, either. The Peerless has seen this movie before – back in the 1980’s. Bryan Murray teams do not have a killer instinct. They didn’t then, and they don’t now. This is not to call Murray a bad coach – no one with more than 500 career wins can be said to be a bad coach. But there is that persistent inability to close the deal, and Ottawa failed in that regard in spades last night (to be fair, it isn’t as if the Senators have displayed much of a killer instinct – regardless of who is behind the bench – over the past several years). To the Caps’ credit, they jumped all over that failing.

The scoresheet says Alex Ovechkin was the game’s first star. Well, ok. But the slice o’ pie goes to Glen Hanlon. It can’t be easy for a coach who is a former goalie to pull a goaltender (although no one should know better when to do so). But Hanlon wasn’t hesitant about making the change to Brent Johnson and taking the time out to remind the boys that despite the score, it wasn’t as if the game was out of reach.

Ovechkin was 2-0-2, even; Semin was 0-3-3, +2; Clark had the game winner and was +1. But in the background, credit needs to be given to the reconstituted Matt Bradley-Brian Sutherby-Ben Clymer “CBS” line. They closed the door on the Senators over the last 48 minutes – Sutherby winning a ton of draws (11 of 17), Clymer showing a higher comfort level in this responsibility, and Bradley pretty much hitting anything in a white sweater.

Nothing really jumps out of the stat sheet, which is a good thing in this instance. This was a team comeback. The skill guys did their thing (five points for the Alexes), the grinders did theirs, and Brent Johnson made very save he had to make, which was – every save.

The Caps have consecutive wins. Now it’s on to Carolina on Thursday to try to make this a real winning streak. But before we close, let’s do a little comparison . . . right now, there is a darling duo over which much of the hockey media is fawning . . . in 20 games between them, they are 13-18-31.

Well, gee . . . here in DC we have the Alexes – Ovechkin and Semin. In 28 games between them, they are 18-15-33, and Ovechkin has four consecutive multi-point games. Crosby and Malkin aren’t the only dangerous duo in town.

The First "Old Man's Major Award" Award!

Ladies and gentlemen, it's time. Time to bestow the first "Old Man's Major Award" Award -- OMMAA -- to a worthy Capital.



The ballot boxes have been unstuffed, the bribes collected, the votes tallied, the chads swept up. And the winner is . . .

. . . a player who exudes cantankerosity, a player who can scowl with the best, who lives each day in the constant befuddlement of what his youngers are up to, who soldiers on every day with a litany of profanities that are charming in their incomprehensibility, an "everyman" sort of player who would just as soon repair the furnace in a suit jacket and vest as he would take a double shift on the power play.

Ladies and gentlemen, the inaugural recipient of the OMMAA is (drum roll please) . . . .


Jamie Heward!

Congratulations . . . display it proudly and prominently!

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Senators, November 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

We are coming to you li-i-i-i-i-i-ve from my keyboard where we bring you the first “BCS” – Bettman Championship Series – poll of the young season. The sister (it sure ain’t its brother) of its similar poll in college football, the BCS poll is a product of several variables:

-- Sharp uniforms . . . Nothing makes a hockey team like a sharp dressed man. “Old school” need not apply. Teams should make use of pastels where possible, a splash of color on the sleeves and maybe on the hem of the jersey.

-- A lack of intestinal fortitude . . . you have a better chance of polling high if you’ve dropped a purse than if you’ve dropped a glove. If you’ve raised a hand in anger against your fellow hockeyist (“hockey player” is just so 90’s), you can forget racing to the top of the BCS standings.

-- Being “special” . . . yes, we’re all “special” but some teams are more “special” than others (“special” is always in quotes in the BCS to show how “special” a club or a player is). It’s all about the power play in the BCS. Five-on-five is something for black-and-white highlights from 1953.

-- Photogeneity . . . in the BCS, you’d better have players that have a “good side” for their photo shoots. Be they posing shirtless for a photo spread or donning uniform for a commercial shoot in household settings, you’d better be ready with an impish smile and a shock of unruly hair to make it in the BCS.

-- Frugality . . . sure there’s a salary cap, but it’s not like you should actually spend up to it. Teams at the top are plucky sorts who make due with payrolls a lot less than that of the left side of the Yankee infield.

With all this in mind, here is the first BCS ranking of the season:

1. Buffalo Sabres. The slug roolz! And it has that sick, lemon curd yellow color kids adore. Add to the fact that the Sabres appear populated by a collection of munchkins, and they are the unanimous choice of me to sit in the top spot.
   
2. Pittsburgh Penguins. Please…the crooked smile of the precocious Sidney Crosby keeps this pollster up at night subscribing on line to Vanity Fair and ordering Reebok apparel. To that, add the mysterious Evgeni Malkin and the puppy-dog-chasing-a-car Marc-Andre Fleury, and the Pens mop up in the “awwwww” factor category.
   
3. New York Rangers. The team with the “That Girl” buzz, they get pushed around all over the place, but still manage to assemble a winning record. Tom Renney looks like an assistant principal behind the bench, but the rest of the club, decked out in all-American red, white, and blue, just screams “USA…USA” or "BCS...BCS," take your pick.
   
4. Anaheim Ducks. A surprise entry, mostly on the strength of J-S Giguere, who was an extra in "The Fifth Element." But with players with wholesome names like “Scott” and “Chris” and “Rob,” how can they not be in the top five? Besides, and club with a “Teemu” is a threat to crack this list.
   
5. New York Islanders. The surprise of the first poll, but with one – count ‘em, one – fighting major so far this year, and the last club to earn one, the Islanders are the epitome of what the Bettman Championship Series is all about.
   

As for tonight’s contest, the Caps are facing one of those “benchmark” games. The Ottawa Senators are not the Senators of the past few years, at least in this early going – 5-7-0 (10 points, 14^th in the Eastern Conference) – but they remain a dangerous team, capable of lighting up an opponent.

If one looks at the Senators’ team statistics, one scratches one’s head (we’re going for the world land speed record for the use of the word “one” in a single sentence). Why is this club 14^th in the East? 15^th in goals-per-game, 7^th in goals-against . . . 3^rd in 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ration . . . 3^rd in penalty killing . . . ah, here we are – dead last in power play: 8.4 percent. Add to that the fact that the Senators are 20^th in total man advantages (24^th on the road), and one gets a glimpse as to one of the things contributing to the Senators’ troubles – four power play goals on the road -- in the early going in the Bettman Hockey League.

Two Senators with great big bulls eyes on them are Daniel Alfredsson and Andrei Meszaros. Alfredsson, who was 43-60-103 last year, is only 2-5-7 in 12 games so far this year and is the subject of trade rumors. Meszaros, who was a +34 last year, is a -5 this year – last on the club (only two “plus” games out of 12) -- although he continues to get major minutes of ice time.

The Caps, on the other hand, are one of the early surprises at 5-4-4. The things fans would have been concerned about – defense, special teams – continue to be areas of concern, but they are improvements over last year. One other area of concern is balance. Alex Ovechkin, Chris Clark, and Dainius Zubrus – in that order – lead the club in scoring. Alex Semin is fourth, but he’s in the midst of a five-game scoreless streak, and he’s been moved to the fourth line. The Caps are getting almost nothing from anyone else offensively. Enter Tomas Flesichmann.

Fleischmann was inserted on the second line with Jakub Klepis and Matt Pettinger against the Flyers to help jump start the second line, and he had a couple of decent scoring opportunities. But that line reflects a problem the Caps have. If the Caps had a sturdier, more consistently productive center on that line, Alex Semin is probably moved back to that line, and Fleischmann moves to the right side. But a line of Semin-Klepis-Fleischmann is at once too young for major minutes and responsibilities (115 games of experience among them) and is far too lacking in physical play – even in this league – to be effective.

The Caps have an opportunity here. Back home, against an opponent that can be dangerous (and has been in VerMCIzon Center). It’s an opportunity to put some distance between themselves and .500, to win consecutive games for the first time this year, and to move up a bit in the standings.

The Peerless likes the arc of the Caps' improvement so far this year and sees this as a game by which to mark their progress. In the end . . .

Caps 4 – Senators 3.

The Peerless' Morning After -- Caps vs. Flyers

Check . . .

Score early . . . Ovechkin on a pretty between-the-legs to himself pass and goal 3:53 into the game . . . check

Score often . . . four goals in the first, the last two coming 37 seconds apart in the last two minutes of the period . . . check

Stem the momentum . . . after the Flyers tied the game on a Simon Gagne breakaway (as Brian Pothier was being mugged at the Flyers’ blue line to set him free), Ben Clymer whacked the puck almost out of the hand of Mark Cullen and past goalie Robert Esche to restore the lead . . . check

Be efficient . . . eight shots, four goals . . . Alex Ovechkin – two shots, two goals . . . check

Take the crowd out of the game . . . those last two goals in the final two minutes of the first period chased Esche and brought the boo birds out in force . . . check.

Play a solid second period . . . check

Don’t wilt when the other team gets a goal . . . Philly got a pair in the final frame, but by then it was well into garbage time (note: Alex Ovechkin had only three shifts in the third, only one in the last 12-and-a-half minutes) . . . check.

Some other observations . . .

Look, I like Alexander Ovechkin as much as the next person, and Ben Clymer had a nice coming out party in his return to right wing, but how about a slice o’ pie for Brian Pothier . . . more than 30 minutes of ice time, plus-one for the night, six blocked shots . . . and all those missed shots some fans complain about? . . . you might watch to see if there is someone for the Caps trying to camp out at the post to get a deflection on some of those “errant” shots.

Steve Eminger returned to the ice last night, but this is a guy playing with his confidence tank approaching “E.” He needs something to give him a spark – a bone-rattling hit, a shot that glances off several players in finding its way to the back of the net – something.

What in heaven’s name has happened to Joni Pitkanen? He’s playing like Joni Mitchell our there (yeah, I know, different pronunciation). He looks disinterested in his play.

The Clarke Legacy . . . the Flyers’ goaltending situation is a wreck. Esche is not, and never has been the high-end goalie one needs for a deep playoff run, and Antero Niittymaki – the guy Clarke said once upon a time made it easy to move Maxime Ouellet – doesn’t appear to be that guy, either. Philly is playing atrociously in front of these guys, but they’re not going to steal many games for them, either.

Tomas Fleischmann only had about seven-and-a-half minutes of playing time, but he looked a good deal more sure of himself out there than in other stays with the big club. He wasn’t bashful about pulling the trigger, almost netting one off a quick-release wrister in the first.

Boyd Gordon had one of those games you need guys to have among the lower half of the forward lines. Most notably, he won 14 of 19 draws, giving the Caps the opportunity to win the “time of possession” game.

Coach Glen Hanlon pretty much ran the third and fourth lines out there over the last 12 minutes. If you look at the shift chart, there’s a lot of white space for Ovechkin, Semin, Fleischmann, and Klepis. The veterans – Dainius Zubrus and Chris Clark – got time, but it wasn’t as if the Caps were pressing on the throttle at that point.

If there was one Flyer who seemed interested in actually playing, it was little Freddy Meyer. Giving away four inches and 20 pounds to Alex Ovechkin, The Peerless gives a tip o’ the hat to him for planting a couple of nice hits on Ovechkin on the same shift, including a fine example of the dying art of hip-checking. After Ovechkin picked himself up off the ice along the boards, he was looking around with a look on his face that said, “who the heck is that?”

It was as good a road game as one could hope for. Yeah, the Flyers had 36 shots and three goals. We’re not impressed by that, nor discouraged over the Caps' third period. Some guys got a breather in anticipation of the high-octane Ottawa Senators coming to VerMCIzon Center on Monday, so it was a welcome turn.

The Caps were 6-8-0 after 14 games last year and had been outscored on the ice, 60-32 (not including shootout scores). They are 5-4-4 this morning, outscoring the opposition 43-42 on the ice. Going from -28 to +1 can’t be interpreted as anything other than a good thing. But now, the object is “winning streak.” The Caps have not won consecutive games this year – it’d be nice to do that and get Olaf Kolzig his 259th win to pass Ken Dryden on the all-time victories list for goaltenders.

-- The Peerless