The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Penguins, March 27th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Tonight, it’s the eighth episode of “The Alex and Sid Show,” the adventures of two rascally youngsters who skate their way over, around, and through their elders as they work their way to the playoffs.

Oops . . . only one of our title characters gets to go to the playoffs this year. That would be Sidney Crosby of the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Penguins who will skate into Verizon Center with the best record in the NHL in calendar year 2007 (27-8-4). The Penguins who can clinch their first playoff appearance since Jaromir Jagr wore the black and gold.

In a series of streaks of success that has marked 2007, the Penguins are on a 9-2-1 run in their last dozen games. The Caps, meanwhile, are 2-8-2 in their last dozen. Some more of the particulars:

Record:

Pittsburgh: 9-2-1
Washington: 2-8-2

Goals For/Goals Against:

Pittsburgh: 38/28
Washington: 31/43

Power Play:

Pittsburgh: 11/58 (19.0%)
Washington: 8/56 (14.3%)

Penalty Kill:

Pittsburgh: 51/59 (86.4%)
Washington: 53/62 (80.7%)

We could go on, but the song remains the same. The thing about Pittsburgh has not been their constants. Sidney Crosby is 7-6-13, -2, in the last 12 games. Evgeni Malkin is 3-8-11, +3. Sergei Gonchar is 2-9-11, +2. OK, one expects that kind of performance. It’s the other guys who step up. This dozen game contribution has come courtesy of Erik Christensen, who is 5-3-8, +5. It has gone a long way to easing the burden on the Penguins of Mark Recchi not scoring a goal since February 19^th (17 games).

In goal, Marc-Andre Fleury has been consistent, to a degree. With the exception of his last outing – a 5-0 shutout of Boston – he’s been Mr. Three-Goal-a-Night. Whether it’s been giving up three in a 4-3 shootout loss to the Devils, or three on seven shots in 20 minutes of work in a no-decision against Ottawa, Fleury has given up three goals in six of his last nine appearances.

For the Caps and their last dozen games, The Alexes and Chris Clark have accounted for more than half of the goals scored (16 of 31). Nine skaters account for the other 15 goals, and Tomas Fleischmann has three of those. There just aren’t many contributions coming from the rest of the roster, offensively speaking.

On the other side of the ledger, Olaf Kolzig is 2-2-1 since his return from a knee injury, over which he has a 2.76 GAA and .921 save percentage. But, this is a team against which he’s struggled over his career (12-17-4-1, 3.37, .880).

The Penguins are gearing up for a long spring on the ice, the Caps (well, some of them) are thinking ahead to the Worlds. The issue hanging over the ice is the fact that the Penguins can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight. So, for the Caps the idea is, “not on our ice.” With Fleury giving up threes regularly, it says here the key is Kolzig.

Caps 3 – Penguins 2.

The Serious Six -- March 26

And here is how they stand this morning . . .

6. NY Rangers: 39-28-9 (87)
7. Tampa Bay: 41-31-4 (86)
8. Carolina: 38-29-8 (84)
**********
9. NY Islanders: 36-27-12 (84)
10. Montreal: 39-31-6 (84)
11. Toronto: 36-29-10 (82)

The Rangers leapfrogged Tampa Bay with a 2-1 overtime win over the Islanders yesterday, and the lost point kept the Isles from moving into the top eight over idle Carolina.

Henrik Lundqvist stopped 34 of 35 shots to get the win and the game’s first star. It was the third straight 2-1 victory over the Islanders by the Rangers, the difference this time being that Petr Prucha did not have the game-winner as he did in the previous two meetings. Michael Nylander netted the winner on a redirect of a feed by Brendan Shanahan in the last minute of the extra session to send the Rangers home winners.

Impact games today: none (all teams idle).

As the six teams take a breather, what lies ahead? If you were to look at the schedules, it appears Tampa Bay has the easiest road to the top-eight. Among their seven remaining games, four are at home (although the Lightning have a rather ordinary 20-16-1 home record). Moreover, the Lightning have three remaining games against also-rans – two against Florida, one against Washington (8-4-1 against those teams this year).

The Islanders might have the hardest row to hoe here. Four of their remaining seven games are at home, where they have been moderately successful (20-11-6, eighth in the East in home record), but five games come against teams higher in the standings (6-10-3 against these teams). The Islanders are the only club in the Serious Six that have a below-.500 record this season against their remaining opponents.

The Serious Six

The Serious Six . . .

That’s where it’s at in the NHL now – the last three spots in the Eastern Conference are up from grabs, and six clubs are separated by four points in an effort to claim them. And, there are only a handful of games left in which to stake those claims. Starting with today’s results, we’re going to try to take a look at these teams as they sprint to the finish – who’s up, who’s down, who has the advantage.

This afternoon, as play begins, they stand this way:

6. Tampa Bay: 41-31-4 (86)
7. NY Rangers: 38-28-9 (85)
8. Carolina: 38-29-8 (84)
**********
9. Montreal: 39-31-6 (84)
10. NY Islanders: 36-27-11 (83)
11. Toronto: 36-29-10 (82)

Today’s impact games:

NY Rangers @ NY Islanders

The Rangers are 2-4 against the Isles this year but have won the last two contests (both by 2-1 margins). Henrik Lundqvist has only one loss in regulation in his last 12 decisions (8-1-3).

Sometimes, you just want to scream, "shut the #@%& up!!!"

I returned from my sojourn to Pennsylvania this weekend and took a peek at what's going on over on The Official . . . and I was pointed to this by a poster over there, comments courtesy of The Blogger in Charge:

"See any free agents that were signed last off season above Alex Semin in goals scored? I don't."

Look, I think building through the draft is the way to go as far as developing a sustained contender goes. The ability to churn young contributors through your system year after year is the most reliable, not to mention cheapest way to do that in a salary capped world. But at some point, kids need mentoring. Once upon a time, I taught at a university. I would never think of just throwing the textbooks into the room and telling the kids, "read 'em. I'll be back in 15 weeks to give you a test."

Sometimes, only the lessons learned by guys who have been through it can be the difference in making sure your kids maximize their potential or become merely journeyman hockey players. This summer, as far as I can see, is the "no excuses" summer. And this has all the makings of a pre-emptive excuse for doing not much (please, let me be wrong...).

Look, if I wanted fantasy hockey, I would have bought NHL2007, cancelled my subscription for season tickets, bought a big-screen TV, and saved myself a lot of angst.

So, I'll pose a question in rebuttal . . .

See any playoff games for the Caps this spring? . . . I don't.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Candiens, March 24th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Seventy-five down, seven to go. We’re a long way from Ashburn and September, aren’t we? The Caps have seven games to garner six points and pass last year’s 70 standings points. Frankly, with the way this season has gone, that would be something of an achievement. Tonight, the Caps embark on those last seven games with a visit to Montreal to take on the Canadiens.

This is the story of two teams having taken similar roads. The Caps were a playoff-bound team in mid-December, and their fall from that lofty status has been well chronicled and painfully experienced by Caps fans. Montreal’s fall has not been as abrupt, but might have a similar result – an early tee time in April. The Canadiens’ high water mark came on December 27^th when they defeated the Capitals, 4-1. The win left them with a record of 22-9-5, and the 13 games over .500 matched their high point of the year. Since then, the Canadiens are 16-22-1, which leaves them 38-31-6 and in ninth place this morning with 82 points.

Montreal has made a game of it lately, though, with a 5-1-0 record in their last six games during which opponents have been outscored 21-17. The Habs’ special teams have stepped up here, going 20.0 percent on the power play (7-for-35) and 88.9 percent on the penalty kill (16-for-18). That the Canadiens have been outscored 15-14 in situations that weren’t “special” could be a key to this game for Washington.

In this 5-1 run, Montreal has been led in overall scoring by center Tomas Plekanec (2-6-8, +3), but the goal scoring load has been taken up by a couple of kids – 19-year old Guillaume Latendresse (4-0-4, -1) and 23-year old Chris Higgins (3-4-7, +1).

In goal, Cristobal Huet put up some fine numbers through mid-February (18-15-3, 2.74, .918) but has been on the shelf since suffering a hamstring injury against the Devils on Valentine’s Day. David Aebischer was given the chance to take up the slack, but he’s gone 3-3-0, 4.62, .870. Not good. Enter Jaroslav Halak. He’s been 6-4-0 in his ten games of work since Huet’s injury and has won his last three, including a 30-save shutout of Boston. For now, he’s the guy.

Fans should watch for how the game unfolds in its latter stages. Over the last six games, Montreal has been outscored 6-4 in the first period, but they have closed with a rush, outscoring opponents 8-4 in the second, 9-7 in the third. The second period, which has been something of a bugaboo for the Caps this year, should be watched carefully. Montreal has scored in the second frame in each of the last six games.

The Caps are 0-5-1 in their last six road contests and have been outscored 24-12. It’s not like the games have even had much in terms of real drama to them. Even the 4-3 shootout loss to Boston was disappointing in that the Caps coughed up a 3-0 lead in doing so. But it is another chance to play spoiler on one of the big stages in North American hockey. Olaf Kolzig – who should get the call in goal, tonight – has had considerable career success against the Habs: 15-11-3-1, 2.30, .922. Among the skaters, Alexander Semin has five goals in five career games against Montreal.

The Caps have to find a way to hold leads in the third period. In two of their last three losses, they’ve been unable to do so, and given Montreal’s recent record in the latter part of games, this is a concern. So, that means getting out to a big lead early, which is where Kolzig and Semin come in. That seems to be what to watch for, and they will be the ingredients for a win:

Caps 5 – Canadiens 1.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, March 22nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s another back-to-back tilt, tonight’s being a visit to ‘Cane Country to take on the Carolina Hurricanes. It’s the last meeting of the clubs for the year, and the Hurricanes hold a 4-3 edge in games won, and a 24-20 edge in goals scored.

Oddly, in none of the seven games has the result been decided by one goal. In fact, every game has been decided by three goals or more – the hockey equivalent of Rocky Balboa and Apollo Creed throwing nothing but head shots. The pattern of wins and losses is rather interesting, too. The clubs have alternated wins in each of the past four games, each club going 1-1 on home ice.

The Hurricanes will enter the game on a similar roller-coaster over their last ten games, having gone 5-4-1. They have managed to outscore their opponents 26-19 over this stretch, but seven of those goals came in their last outing, a 7-2 whuppin’ put on the New Jersey Devils.in the Meadowlands on St. Patrick’s Day.

Carolina’s special teams have been a Jekyll and Hyde production the last ten games. On the power play, the Hurricanes are a Dr. Jekyll on the power play, going 4-for-49 (8.2 percent), while the penalty kill has been a Mr. Hyde 42-for-43 (97.7 percent). In fact, the Hurricanes are 50 for their last 51 on the penalty kill (98.0 percent). They have yielded that single power play goal over their last 13 games, since yielding three in three chances to the New York Rangers on February 15.

Carolina has been paced in scoring over the last ten games by Rod Brind’Amour (3-5-8, +6), while Scott Walker and Justin Williams lead the team with four goals apiece. Anson Carter – picked up at the trading deadline – has yet to register a point in six games and is a -2. in the last three games in which he’s appeared, dating back to a March 2 game against Pittsburgh, he’s been given less than ten minutes of ice time.

Goaltending hasn’t been a problem for Carolina. John Grahame received most of the work over the last ten games with a 3-3-1 record in seven appearances. He managed a 1.99 GAA and .925 save percentage along the way. Meanwhile, Cam Ward was 2-1-0 in three appearances with a 1.45 GAA and .943 save percentage.

Scoring first appears to matter for the Hurricanes, lately. In five games in which Carolina scored first, they are 4-1-0. Giving up the first goal they are 1-3-1. They also seem to start sluggishly in games, having scored only six of their 26 goals in the last ten games in the first period.

These clubs know each other well, as you would expect of divisional opponents. And, given the patterns in the previous seven games, it’s late in the season to expect things to change than much. What is suggests is that it’s the Caps’ turn. If they can break through on the power play (5-for-30 against Carolina this year), all the better. But with the exception of the last game against the Devils, the Hurricanes have had difficulty scoring goals. With goaltender Olaf Kolzig playing well in his return and with a long history of success against Carolina (24-11-9, career, versus Carolina), the case for the Caps is that much stronger. The question will be whether he gets the call in the back half of the back-to-back game. Nonetheless, the Caps should do well . . .

Caps 5 – Hurricanes 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Sabres, March 21st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Caps hit the road tonight, traveling to Paris on Lake Erie . . . otherwise known as Buffalo, NY. The Caps are riding on a three-game points streak (2-0-1), something quite unusual for the club since the start of the new year. Tampa Bay and Toronto – the Caps’ last two opponents – offered a test of playoff-worthy opponents, but the Sabres will be a step up in class. With 99 points, they lead the Eastern Conference and sit second in the league in total points earned. In their last ten, Buffalo is 5-3-2, but will enter this game having earned points in their last four games (2-0-2).

The game will offer the Caps a glimpse of an old teammate – Dainius Zubrus – in his new duds. Zubrus is 2-0-2, +1 in nine games with the Sabres thus far in an average of almost 19 minutes of ice time a game.

As for the rest of the club, some of the particulars over the last ten games:

- 37 goals for/31 goals against
- Leading scorers: Jason Pominville (6-4-10, +4), Drew Stafford (6-2-8, +4)
- Power play: 3/28 (7.9 percent, none for their last 23)
- Penalty killing: 27/35 (77.1 percent)

Ryan Miller has been rather ordinary in goal, with a 4-3-2 mark, 3.03, .900, record over this stretch (compared to 2.75, .910 for the season).

Meanwhile, the Caps have outscored the opposition 15-5 over the last three games that marked the return of goaltender Olaf Kolzig.

It makes for an interesting game, and that’s with out the Alex Ovechkin-Daniel Briere subplot. Tonight, the Caps go for three wins in a row . . .

Caps 5 – Sabres 4.

Well, isn't this a comfort?

The Associated Press reports that Chris Simon will not face criminal charges for his on-ice two-handed swing at New York Ranger Ryan Hollweg on March 8th. What a comfort it must be to the league that an incident that would result in some potential behind-bars time in the real world gets a pass, largely on the basis of the statement of the victim:

"They asked me if I wanted to, but I told them I didn't want to press charges. I'm not happy about what he did, but I want to focus on making the playoffs. I just want to move on."

"Move on"...sounds so simple, doesn't it. Except what we've moved on to is this...



Are they related? Well, in a sense, yes. It speaks to a fundamental lack of respect for opponents. Simon didn't give a thought to the use of a stick to make a point; Jordin Tootoo didn't give a thought to the fact that if you're going to take on the other team's big gun, you will have to stand and answer for that action without resorting to a sucker punch. And not too long ago, there was this that we've moved on from -- a flying appendage thrown at Chris Drury by Chris Neil and the associated aftermath...



An epidemic? No, all part of a disturbing piece, nonetheless.

After-Math . . . Caps vs. Lightning

It’s a two point day!!

What was that about Alexes? The Peerless meant “Flashes” . . . Boyd “Flash” Gordon had a goal and an assist, Tomas “Flash” Fleischmann had two goals and two assists in a 7-1 romp over the Tampa Bay Lighting this afternoon. It was a flash of what might yet be to come as far as the Caps are concerned. Not that the Alexes were shutout, not both of them anyway. Alexander Semin had a natural hat trick in the second period (on his only three shots taken in the frame) to give him 37 goals for the year.

Key for the Caps was, as it was for the Toronto game Friday night, getting off early. The Caps opened the scoring at 5:31 of the first on a goal by Fleischmann. But there is something to be said for keeping teams from getting off early, and that is where the return of Olaf Kolzig has been important. Kolzig did not have to make any especially difficult saves in the first period, but he made them all. Seeing as how the Caps came into the game 29^th in the league in winning percentage when giving up the first goal (.146), steady goaltending early is key. Kolzig, for those of you scoring at home, has stopped 100 of 104 shots since returning from his injury. Given his steadfastness in goal and the club’s play around him, it seems to validate this argument with respect to the value of his return.

While the attention focuses on Semin’s hat trick and Fleicshmann’s four-point game, the Caps had ten players register points in all – none of them named “Ovechkin.” Similar to the point we made after the Toronto game, if one would tell The Peerless that the Caps would score 12 goals in consecutive games, and Alex Ovechkin would have only one assist in the deluge, The Peerless would be looking for his copy of the Yellow Pages and finding a therapist for you.

On the other side of the ice, Tampa looked anything like a team trying to protect a four-point lead on the ninth-place club or one that could have closed to within two-points of the Southeast Division lead with a win. They looked rather ordinary, in fact. It wasn’t just goaltending, which was bad enough (The Peerless sat in his seat wondering in the second period if coach John Tortorella wanted to summon up Daren Puppa or Pat Jablonski from Lightning teams of the distant past – they couldn’t have fared worse than Johan Holmqvist, then Marc Denis, then Holmqvist again). Vincent Lecavalier spent his 60 minutes looking as if he was afraid he’d get his makeup smeared if he dared skate between the circles in the offensive zone. He was content to play along the boards for the duration of the contest. That he was -2 and won only 42 percent of his draws was hardly surprising. That he had one shot on goal in the last 55-plus minutes of the game was, that one being long after the matter had been settled.

The Peerless asked this question after the last time these clubs met, and it still is a matter that strikes your prognosticator as odd . . . how does the team captain skate a total of 5:45 for the game? That’s what Tim Taylor had for Tampa (he managed a -2 in his brief turns on the ice).

But let’s give some credit to the line of Gordon, Brooks Laich, and Chris Clark, too. They did a superb job at neutralizing the Lecavalier-Vaclav Prospal-Martin St. Louis line (10 total shots, no points). The Peerless does wonder, however…was Clark injured in the third period? He shows as having no shifts taken in the last eight minutes of the game. On top of Brian Sutherby’s compartment injury to his hand Friday night (he’s out for 7-10 days), that would be one more injury in a series that has crippled this club since the parade started among the defensemen in December.

You look at this club the last three games . . . six different players have the 15 goals scored (including two hat tricks), 16 different players have registered the total of 39 points. Alex Ovechkin has one point. When the “light over the head going on” moment is taking place, chances are you don’t see it. But maybe (said The Peerless, hopefully) that moment is at hand. Alexander Semin is 3-4-7 in his last three. Tomas Fleischmann is 3-2-5. Chris Clark is 3-1-4. Boyd Gordon is 2-2-4. The Caps will spend a lot of time on SportsCenter (ok, not ESPN . . . one of the Canadian outlets, perhaps) with Ovechkin scoring highlight goals – and they won’t win much. It will be what contributions the club gets from up and down the roster that will matter in the end. The last three games, fans have gotten a glimpse of just what that means.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, March 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! . . .

It’s Matinee Sunday for the Caps as they take on the Tampa Bay Lightning, and today’s theme is, “The Fine Line.” As in , the fine line that separates winning and losing in this league. And Tampa Bay seems to be on the wrong side of that line at the moment, courtesy of . . . the Washington Capitals?

Could be (although coincidence cannot be ruled out). Let’s look at Tampa, before and after the March 1 5-4 shootout win over the Caps:

- Before: they came in on a 17-4-2 run . . . after: 2-4-0

- Before: scored 72 goals (3.13/game) over those 23 games . . . after: scored 13 (2.17/game)

- Before: gave up 64 goals (2.78/game) . . . after: gave up 20 goals (3.33/game)

- Before: 21-for-82 on the power play (25.6%) . . . after: 4-for-22 (18.1%)

- Before: 68-for-84 penalty killing (80.1%) . . . after: 18-for-20 (90.0%..ok, there’s that one)

- Before: they did not lose a one-goal game in regulation (13-0-2) . . . after: they’ve lost their last two games by one goal in regulation

- Before: 9-2 in extra-time games (20 of 36 standings points earned that way) . . . after: 0-1 (one of four standings points earned)

- Vincent Lecavalier . . . Before: 18-13-31, -3 (1.35 PPG) . . . after 6-3-9, -4 (1.50 PPG)

- Martin St. Louis . . . Before: 12-20-32, +3 (1.39 PPG) . . . after: 0-5-5, -2 (0.83 PPG)

- Brad Richards . . . Before: 9-17-26, +1 (1.13 PPG) . . . after: 1-2-3, -1 (0.50 PPG)

For the Caps, it’s a chance once more to play spoiler, the Lightning coming into this contest only four points ahead of the ninth-place New York Islanders, with the Islanders holding a game in hand. Washington comes into this game on a two-game points earned streak, the first time they’ve done that since the last week of February. Today they will have the chance to do something they have done only once this calendar year – win consecutive games (January 4-6, over Montreal and Atlanta). The Caps haven’t won consecutive games in regulation since early December (a four-game streak, November 28 – December 6).

Something to watch for . . . “The Alex Effect.” One might expect that the Capitals are more likely to win games when one of the Alexes scores a goal, and in fact, this is true. When Alex Ovechkin scores, the Caps are 16-12-5 (9-22-8 when he does not). When Alexander Semin scores, the Caps are even more likely to win – 13-8-4 (12-26-9 when he does not). When both score, the Caps are 9-1-1, including wins in the last eight times this has occurred. The club against which the Caps’ have had little success in this regard? . . . Tampa: 1-2-1 when Ovechkin scores, 1-2-3 when Semin scores, 1-1-1 when both score.

So what does it all mean, Oh Peerless one? The Caps have won but one game against the Lightning this year. What happened in that game that did not happen in any of the others?

Boyd Gordon scored, and it is the only game in which no power play goals were scored.

Had enough of the numbers? Well, here’s the poop . . . the Caps are 1-3 in home matinees this year. Tampa’s won both of their away afternoon games. No matter, today is a bright sunny day (and hopefully one for Boyd Gordon).

Caps 4 – Lightning 3.

After-Math -- Caps vs. Maple Leafs

Woo-hoo!!!.... TWO points, tonight!!!

And that’s how it’s done. If one were to tell The Peerless, “Alex Ovechkin will not register a point, and the Caps will score five goals, anyway,” The Peerless would have asked, “who the $#@& are you, Eklund?”

As it was, that’s just what happened in the Caps’ 5-1 win against the Toronto Maple Leafs. And, lordy, did the goals come from odd places. Alexandre Giroux scored his first NHL goal 1:46 in after Steve Eminger sent the puck to the end boards, where it popped straight back, hopping past the flailing stick of Toronto goalie, Andrew Raycroft (who had one of the more brutal games a goaltender can have..he couldn’t handle a puck cleanly tonight if you, well…handed it to him). Giroux celebrated in appropriate fashion. After all, it’s not as if goal scoring is foreign to him (he has 38 goals for Hershey this year), but it was his first goal of the NHL variety. Congratulations, kid.

The Caps had a familiar face notch the second goal – Alexander Semin stuffed in his own rebound after a nifty takeaway. After that . . . Boyd Gordon, Kris Beech, and Tomas Fleischmann. Along with Giroux, those four have a grand total of 26 career NHL goals, counting tonight. Semin has 34 this year. It is the kind of contribution from the “other guys” (meaning ones whose first names don’t rhyme with “Malexander” . . . ok, there’s Giroux, but you get my point) that has been lacking all year.

Some folks might wonder . . . why did Brooks Laich get a second star in this game? Well, look at the shift chart.

Boyd Gordon took a lot of draws against Mats Sundin, but the pesky Gordon gives away four inches and 30 pounds. It was Laich that served as the big body pounding on the big Leaf, and in the end took more draws than Gordon. Sundin shook loose for an assist on the Leafs’ lone goal, but other than that was largely neutralized. Laich also led the Caps in ice time on the penalty kill. There is more to getting a star than scoring goals.

There were a few odd numbers tonight . . .

- “zero”…the number of hits Darcy Tucker registered. What, he’s mellowing in his older years?

- “four”…that’s how many Caps registered fewer than 10 minutes ice time.

- “two”…Neither Brian Sutherby nor Mike Green took a shift in the third period.

- 15:34…the combined ice time of Toronto centers Jeff O’Neill and Yanic Perreault.

- “16”…that’s how many different skaters made their way to the penalty box tonight. What, were they serving beer over there?

- “two” (again)…the number of Toronto skaters finishing the night even . . . 16 were in the minus category (testimony to the ability of the Caps to spread the joy around tonight; only three Caps were even, the rest were in the plus category).

- “.971”…the save percentage for Olaf Kolzig tonight (34 saves on 35 shots). Amazing what a steadying influence a veteran goalie with a pedigree can have.

All in all, it was a quite satisfying game. It might be just one game in the slow march to the end of the year, but the guys looked like they were having fun. Hope they played the music really loud in the locker room.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Maple Leafs, March 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR . . .

In a very abbreviated version this morning (lots to do, lots to do). Tonight, the Caps get right back to it in the back half of a back-to-back, hosting the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs are desperately trying to climb into the top eight – they sit ninth this morning, one point behind eighth-place Carolina with two games in hand. They don’t seem to be playing like it, though, with a 5-5-1 record in their last 11 games. However, they have won their last two – a pair of one goal games – and they will be catching the Caps coming off a frustrating and disheartening loss in Boston in a shootout last night.

For the Caps, the key might be special teams. Toronto is only 3-for-49 on the power play in their last 11 games (6.1 percent), while they’ve surrendered 13 power play goals in 51 shorthanded situations (74.5 percent penalty kill).

Trouble is, the Caps are winless in their last seven home games (0-4-3).

The Peerless is nothing if not hopeful, though, and Toronto’s inconsistency will be their downfall tonight.

Caps 3 – Leafs 2

After-Math -- Caps vs. Bruins

One point tonight . . .

“Penalty kill” took on a whole new meaning last night as the Caps fell, 4-3, to the Boston Bruins in a shootout. The Caps played a uniquely undisciplined and silly game in giving up nine power plays – the Bruins scoring on three of them – in the loss. Five high-sticking penalties? It wasted a hat-trick effort from the captain, Chris Clark, and a fine performance in goaltender Olaf Kolzig’s return to the ice after a knee injury shelved him for a month. The penalty kill more or less killed the Caps' chances for a win.

Young teams make errors of omission and commission, but this was just the kind of sloppy attention to the matter at hand that a young team with nothing to play for has to be held to account for. More’s the pity, because the boys played a very solid game for almost forty minutes. But they just couldn’t help themselves on penalties, and it destroyed any momentum they were managing to build. The result? A blown three-goal lead. Whatever else the Caps accomplished in this game, that’s the bottom line.

And no, it’s not acceptable. Not if the Caps are fighting for a playoff spot, not if they are playing out the last dozen games.

Inidividually, there were some fine efforts. Clark and Kolzig, of course. But there was Milan Jurcina returning to Boston and making his presence felt…and felt…and felt in more than 28 minutes of ice time. Jeff Schultz had a pretty good game, too. But then again, both were on the ice for two Bruin power play goals, too. Alex Ovechkin finally got off the schneid on the shootout with a nice goal.

But the Caps gave themselves little to build on with their incessant march to the penalty box. They had a chance to stand on the Bruins’ throats and instead used their sticks on them.

Another reason it’s an early spring.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Bruins, March 15th

Stinks to be on the outside with your face pressed to the glass, watching all the fat cats getting ready for the playoffs, doesn’t it?

Well, that’s where the Caps and the Bruins find themselves – the Bruins a little closer to the door of the dining room with 71 points to the Caps’ 60. Two teams looking further ahead, like to next year. It must be especially galling for Boston to be in this position, having blown $57.5 million on deals for free agents Marc Savard (-10, despite 88 points) and Zdeno Chara (-11, but with a “hardest shot contest” win at the All Star Game).

The Bruins will welcome Washington into something called “TD Banknorth Garden” in the midst of a 3-5-1 record over their last nine games, which follows an 8-2-0 run, which follows a five-game losing streak. Streak . . . yeah, that applies.

If there is anything that has betrayed the B’s in their last nine, it’s been offense. 22 goals scored in nine games, ten of those coming in two games (a 4-1 win at New Jersey and a 6-3 win in Detroit). They have only nine goals in their last five home games. They have certainly spread the mediocrity around. 15 different skaters have the 22 goals. Marco Sturm (3-5-8, +1) and Brandon Bochenski (3-3-6, even) lead the club in goal scoring. Marc Savard also has eight points (1-7-8), but typically it seems, is also -6 in his last nine games.

That plus-minus is a real bugaboo for the B’s. No Bruin who has played at least 40 games for the club is better than a -3. And the guy with the -3? Milan Jurcina. He’ll be wearing the other uniform at TDBnG. Eight players who have been with the club all year are -10 or worse (the Caps have seven) – this does not include four other players no longer with the club (Wayne Primeau, Brad Boyes, Paul Mara, and Brad Stuart).

Special teams have been about as productive lately as one might expect a 12^th-place team to be – the power play is 5-for-45 (11.1 percent), penalty killing is somewhat better at 37-for-43 over the last nine games.

If there is a bright spot for the Bruins, it’s been goaltending. Tim Thomas is 2-4-1 in Boston’s last nine games and really deserves better. He’s got a 2.64 goals against average, but a .924 save percentage (a 51-save [performance in a 4-3 overtime loss to the Flyers didn’t hurt his numbers). He’s having to face over 35 shots-per-60 minutes in his six appearances over this stretch, which is positively Kolzigesque.

But here is the problem for the Caps – since they were at their high-water mark of 15-10-7 in mid-December, they are 3-15-1 in road games. Only five of those losses were of the one-goal variety. Eight of them were by three or more goals, including two of their last three. There’s being a polite guest, and there is taking things too far. The Caps need to break some of the china, insult the hostess, spill some beer on the carpet.

The Caps are 1-9-4 in their last 14 games, the lone win coming on the road. They’ve been outscored 52-32, their power play has been mediocre (10/58, 17.2 percent), their penalty killing bad (48/62, 77.4 percent). Alex Ovechkin has eight goals in the last 14 games; Alexander Semin and Brian Sutherby have four apiece. 13 other skaters split the remaining 16 goals. Trouble is, those three are also a combined -20 over the last 14 games.

Let’s face it, the Caps are a visitor made to order for the Bruins. But while the Caps suck on the road, the Bruins can seem to win much at home, either. The Caps have ‘em right where they want ‘em. Olaf Kolzig is expected to make a return, according to Post writer Tarik El-Bashir, and this will inspire the Caps to a victory . . . no, really. Hey! The Peerless does NOT use drugs!!

Caps 4 – Bruins 2.

Was that the distant rumble of thunder?

This morning's Washington Post report on last night's 4-2 loss to the Thrashers led, not with a report on the game, but with two quotes that should send shivers down Capitals fans' spines while they nod in agreement . . .

"It's not important for me, it's important for our team. We need players. We need help. We are young, that's why we need guys who have experience, guys who [have played in the] playoffs. Sometimes experience wins the game."

-- Alex Ovechkin

"We need some players who are going to make an impact. We just have to trust that ownership and management will get the players who will help us get to the next level."

-- Olaf Kolzig


We'll all be watching...closely.

After-Math -- Caps vs. Thrashers

Nope…no points tonight, either.

It ain’t pretty. The Caps lost again, tonight, 4-2 to the Atlanta Thrashers. But for a couple of goals from Alex Ovechkin (neither being exactly a blistering shot ripping to the back of the net, but who can be picky at this point), the Caps offense was dormant tonight. It wasn’t for a lack of effort – well, for the most part -- but rather a lack of skill.

When a club is going as badly as the Capitals have been over the last however many weeks, they become brittle – one moment of adversity can break them down for the rest of the game, and that moment came late in the first period. With a Capitals defender hanging on, Bobby Holik slid toward the Caps net on his side and managed to redirect a feed from Eric Boulton past an unprepared Brent Johnson to put the Caps in a 2-0 hole. Even though Ovechkin would score goals to bring the Caps within one – twice – one got the feeling that this was the turning point in this game. The Caps just don’t have enough offense to climb out of holes they dig for themselves. The Peerless wonders, though, will Bobby Holik’s effort get nearly the same attention given to Sidney Crosby for scoring essentially the same goal in a game against Tampa Bay two months ago? We’re guessing, “no.”

The worst news of the night might be the bitter birthday present provided to Brent Johnson, who appeared to tweak (or worse) something when trying to deny Keith Tkachuk’s 24^th goal of the season in the second period. Johnson finished the period but was replaced by Frederic Cassivi in the third period. Not the best way to celebrate the big “three-oh,” eh? Olaf Kolzig appears likely to return to the ice, perhaps as soon as Thursday against Boston, but the Caps could be reduced to the situation they faced at the end of the 2003-2004 season, when Matt Yeats was playing four of the last six games of that woebegone season.

For the Caps (and for their fans), the scoreboard is the last thing to be watching. There are games within the game, and tonight the “game” was “Where’s Alex?” No, not Ovechkin…Semin. The young winger has one goal in his last eight games (including tonight), but what was of concern tonight was the missing ten minutes. Semin was on the ice when Vyacheslav Kozlov netted the first goal of the evening at 11:26, then did not appear until the second minute of the second period. The same could almost be said for Mike Green – another culprit on the Thrasher goal – who saw but a few seconds on one shift over the same stretch of time (just enough to get a good view of the Holik goal). With a club like this, the currency a coaching staff can use is ice time, and the play of Semin and Green getting caught and giving up the puck in a vulnerable position – allowing the Thrashers to go the other way in numbers – was the price for a ticket to the bench. A bad record is not an excuse for sloppy play, and coach Glen Hanlon was right to use the tools at his disposal to drive that point home.

Green had an especially brutal game. Minus-3, ten minutes and change of ice time, a generally lackluster game. But he wasn’t alone. One got the feeling that if Hanlon could have sat all the defensemen at some point, he would have (with the possible exception of Jeff Schultz and Brian Pothier, who stood out not because of their own sterling play, but for the “what’s the use” attitude of some of their colleagues over stretches of this game).

The forwards, on the other hand, didn’t play a bad game. It is here where the lack of skill is most evident. They try – they really do. But this isn’t a group that is especially adept at either passing or shooting (the Alexes aside). It is an offense that is pretty much limited to whatever the Alexes can create on their own or luck. Luck was the predominant ingredient in the Caps’ offense tonight – the first goal was Ovechkin following a shot and nudging the puck enough to fool goalie Kari Lehtonen into thinking the puck was coming faster than it was. The second goal was off a Thrasher skate. That’s not enough on which to build an actual functioning offense.

The lack of offensive skill means the Caps don’t hold the puck long enough to take the pressure off a young defense. They end up spending too much time in their own end, giving up too many chances to the opposition. Eventually, they pay. Their 9-24-5 record since their high-water mark of the season means that they’ve paid – often.

But maybe that’s the price for the lessons they have to learn.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, March 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

As we prepare for this evening’s contest against the Atlanta Thrashers, we go to our mail bag to take the pulse of the fan during this difficult time for the Capitals . . .

First up is a letter from a fan in Viera, Florida . . .

“Dear Peerless…You’ve been watching the Caps for a few years now, and I know that they’re having trouble, but tell me – is it contagious or something? I mean really, 84 runs in 12 games…you’d think Olie Kolzig was pitching.”

Signed,

Manny A.

No, Manny, it’s not contagious, it’s the water.

Next up is a fan from Hershey, PA, who writes . . .

“Dear Peerless . . . Stop. No, really. Stop. We’re running out of players here. That stupid bear is going to start in goal against Worcester next Friday. Rumor has it if you guys take anyone else, the Governor is going to have to declare an emergency, and we’d rather he just spend his time screwing up the Penguins’ arena deal.”

Signed,

Bruce

Well, Bruce, The Peerless doesn’t have a line to George McPhee, but if it’ll help, I can see about the club sending Slapshot down if they bring up Steckel.

And finally, a letter from the District . . .

“Dear Peerless . . . I wanted to take this opportunity to update our plan-holders and fans regarding the moves we made at the NHL trade deadline involving chicken tenders, dippin’ dots, personal pizzas, and soft pretzels. First and foremost, all of these decisions were made for food reasons, not financial ones. Our decisions were solely based on what was best for the hungry hockey fan . . . “

George? George? . . . stop. Enough with the letters.

Meanwhile, the Thrashers come into tonight’s game having apparently righted their ship. In danger of falling out of the top-eight two weeks ago when they were mired in a 2-7-2 run, they ran of five wins in a row before losing at Florida on Saturday, 3-2. In the last half-dozen games that the Thrashers have played, they have managed to outscore the opposition 22-12 in going 5-1. It is quite the reversal of fortune for a club that had been outscored by opponents 43-28 in the 11 previous games.

The difference in special teams has been noteworthy. The Thrashers’ power play has converted 6 of 32 chances in their last six games (18.8 percent) versus 6-of-44 in their previous 11 (13.6 percent). The penalty killers have retired 25-of-28 shorthanded situations over their last six games (89.3 percent) versus 32-of-45 in their previous 11 games (71.1 percent). It is the difference between being outscored by about half-a-goal a game during the rough stretch and outscoring opponents by roughly the same margin during the 5-1 streak. The net goal-a-game difference makes a huge difference at this time of year.

Marian Hossa has led the way back for the Thrashers’, going 5-5-10, +9, in the last six games. Couple that with the fact that he is 21-22-43, +12, in 36 career games against Washington, and this is a case of the hot guy coming to face the Caps at a bad moment for the boys and their fans. Trouble is, the Thrashers have gotten help from unexpected quarters, too. Eric Belanger is 4-3-7, +5, over the last half-dozen games. More expectedly, newcomer Keith Tkachuk has chipped in three goals (3-1-4, +3), as has Ilya Kovalchuk (3-3-6, +4). Cap-killer Jon Sim has been average (2-0-2, +2), but those 11 goals in 20 career games against the Caps always has to be in the back of Caps fans’ minds.

Kari Lehtonen will almost certainly get the call in net this evening as the Thrashers try to cement their status among the top-eight in the East. Lehtonen is 5-1-0 in his last six games, 2.01, .939. His maintaining that level of production will be the critical element for the Thrashers down the stretch and into the playoffs.

For the Caps, it’s another chance to inch forward against a club preparing for the playoffs. There’s been a lot of slipping backward in the 1-8-4 stretch in which they find themselves. Here is another way to look at this . . . the Caps have one win in regulation – one – in their last 19 games dating back to a 7-3 win against Carolina on January 27^th. On the other hand, eight of their losses were of the one-goal variety, five of them in shootouts. They’ve been just bad enough to lose on most nights, which serves to illustrate how thin the margin is between being a playoff club this time of year and being one that is looking to next season.

Seneca wrote, “Fire is the test of gold; adversity, of strong men.” These are the times when such strength is forged.

Caps 5 – Thrashers 3.

You...you mean there is another player in this league whose name ends in 'y?'

Yeah . . . Paul Stastny, who has quite a hockey pedigree, being the son of Hall of Famer Peter Stastny. And now, he has a rookie record all to himself...18 consecutive games with at least one point, breaking the record of 17, set by Teemu Selanne in 1993 while with Winnipeg. Selanne broke a 16-game streak set by the elder Stastny as a rookie with Quebec in 1981.

Congrats, kid.


(photo: Getty Images)

Incongruity

The Peerless stumbled upon a blog by James Mirtle, a staff writer for the Globe and Mail, and one of the subjects -- two actually -- caught my eye. Both are products of rankings in The Hockey News, one a ranking of teams' top ten prospect lists/under-22-years-of-age prospects, the other a ranking of the NHL's general managers.

In the former, the Capitals' under-22 prospects are ranked second (behind only Pittsburgh), achieveing a grade of "A." In the latter, George McPhee is ranked 23rd among his general manager brethren.

Second . . . twenty-third. Hmm . . .

What is wrong with this picture? Is not McPhee the architect of that prospect pool as GM? If McPhee is such a boob, compared to the likes of the comparatively inexperienced Flyers GM Paul Holmgren (12th) and the Islanders' Garth Snow (16th), is the Capitals' prospect pool vastly overrated? Or is there actually an explanation for this . . . incongruity?

It would be tempting -- as a hopeful Caps fan -- to discount the GM rankings in favor of the prospect rankings. In fact, there are problems -- serious ones -- in part a product of the methodology used by THN (inherently subjective, an unavoidable characteristic in this instance), but more so one of its employment.

THN states in its preface to the GM rankings,

There was no specific formula, but things were weighted more to the recent past . . . Our measurements for GMs included: past achievements and success; recent performance an on the job; hirings and firings; draft performance; free agent signings; and, what he did at the recent trade deadline.

There are two problems with this. First, if you employ a method like this universally, you cannot rank Paul Holmgren, Garth Snow or Ray Shero (of Pittsburgh, 17th) nearly as highly as THN does. They have no "past achievements and success" of record on which to draw in their current positions. Second, the method appears to have been performed selectively. Let's look at two GMs -- Shero and McPhee. Shero inherited Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Ryan Whitney -- thought to be the core of the Penguins for years to come (well, until free agency and the salary cap rear their ugly heads). He added Jordan Staal in the 2006 draft. He added such as Mark Eaton, Jarkko Ruutu, Nils Ekman, Ronald Petrovicky, and Chris Thorburn upon his taking the job. He added Gary Roberts, Georges Laraque, and Joel Kwiatkowski at the trading deadline. None of these acquisitions -- apart from perhaps Staal -- can (yet, and we do want to emphasize that) be considered "impact" signings. THN praises Shero for having the sense to "leave well enough alone." Well, sure...sometimes the best move is the one you don't make, but really, who on the roster was tradeable? The big four (plus Staal) aren't going anywhere, and what kind of return is Rob Scuderi going to bring? What you have there is the profile of a GM adding on the margins -- the core that was drafted as a result of a selloff that began long before Shero was in place (and before that begun by the Caps, for that matter) is in place and producing.

Take McPhee on the other hand. THN notes that he "hasn't won a playoff series [since his first season] and will finish out of the playoffs a third straight season." They go on to note that he was "burned by a Jaromir Jagr deal that was forced upon him by ownership," thus resulting in his having "focused all of the Capitals' efforts on the future." The first question this raises in The Peerless' mind is, "ok, guys...what defines 'recent' in performance?" Jaromir Jagr was traded in Janaury 2004, more than three years ago. Since that watershed moment that defines the Capitals' decision to gut the building to the studs and rebuild, McPhee has added: Mike Green, Shaone Morrisonn, Brian Pothier, Jeff Schultz, Chris Clark, Tomas Fleischmann, Jiri Novotny, and Alexander Ovechkin on the current roster. Only Clark among these players is older than 24. Not included on this list are: Nicklas Backstrom, Eric Fehr (currently injured), Simeon Varlamov, Michal Neuvirth, Joe Finley, Francois Bouchard, Chris Bourque, or Patrick O'Neill, who round out the top five and the "next five" prospects identified by THN...the prospect pool that the publication ranks second in the NHL. And, lest anyone think McPhee "one dimensional" in building his roster via the draft, the fact is that many of these picks (Green, Schultz, Varlamov among them) were picks obtained via trade as part of the gutting of the roster in the aftermath of the Jagr-trade-gone-bad.

It is the difference between inheriting and roster and largely building one from scratch. THN really doesn't seem to have as part of their methodology a ranking factor to address that difference.

However, the more egregious comparison is that between McPhee and Paul Holmgren. That -- the ranking of Holmgren 12th and McPhee 23rd -- borders on the ridiculous. THN's ranking of Holmgren isn't based in any way on "performance," it's based almost entirely on futures -- the yield of trades he made (Ryan Parent, Scottie Upshall, Braydon Coburn, and Martin Biron). And one of those trades involved the disposition of a high-end asset he inherited -- Peter Forsberg. On paper, he did well, but did he do demonstrably better this year than McPhee did in 2004 to move lesser assets such as Robert Lang for who are now Mike Green and Tomas Fleischmann? Or Sergei Gonchar for who are now Shaone Morrisonn and Jeff Schultz? Or in 2005, Brendan Witt for a package that now includes Simeon Varlamov? Apparently, Philly futures (e.g., Ryan Parent, ranked as the 21st under-22 prospect by THN) mean a great deal more than Capital futures (e.g., Eric Fehr, ranked 22nd).


Is McPhee one of the top GMs in the league? The Peerless is not inclined to rate him that highly. certainly not in the top ten -- the absence of Caps' draft picks past the second round on the parent roster is a particular shortcoming, especially for a club that intends to build via the draft. However, it is hard to comprehend how on one hand a franchise is ranked second in prospects, but the GM that obtained them (a product of their own picks and those obtained in trades) is ranked in the lowest third among his cohort. One wonders whether he was shortchanged in favor or other, less experienced GMs from franchises with better "pedigrees."

After-Math -- Caps vs. Islanders

No points . . . again.

The epic “Alexander” by Oliver Stone runs 176 minutes. It is an awful movie. So, too, has been the Capitals’ offense the last three games, tonight ending a 176 minute goal-scoring drought in their 5-2 loss to the New York Islanders. Coincidentally, the drought was ended by the Capitals’ own “Alexander” – Ovechkin, that is (a much better performer than any in that abysmal flick).

Frankly, it was a f**ked-up game all around. The Caps could have had a half-dozen goals above the two they ended up scoring, and that is without any of the several fine saves Islander goalie Rick DiPietro made. The Caps certainly had their minimum daily requirement of iron, having banged pucks off posts to the beat of Anvil Chorus. And for those Caps fans who seem to think the Caps haven’t really showed up for games recently, the NHL seems to agree, based on this shift chart:

Of course, the Islanders were absent for those first six minutes of the second period, too, so it is hardly surprising that neither club scored.

One thing that came out of this game . . . Brendan Witt really has become something of a prissy little twerp. Maybe he’s trying to be Sean Avery with hair, but all he seems to do is yap-and-run. His performance tonight in the third period was especially noteworthy – in fact, worthy of a starring role in the aforementioned, “Alexander.” Yapping at Donald Brashear moments after Brashear scored the Caps’ second goal, giving a fake shot at him, then dropping as if he was shot when Brashear responded with a left hook and squirming on the ice like a slug on my driveway . . . pitiful. He drew the call – “Gadzooks! I am slain!! -- but any thought of attaching an adjective like “tough guy” to this clown would be, well, funny.

But like last Saturday’s 6-2 loss to the New Yorkers, the Islanders raced off to a lead, more or less ending the competitive portion of the game, then watched as the Caps hung some window dressing on DiPietro late. It was good, though to see the Caps end that 176 minute goose-egg, and it was good to see Ovechkin end his three game scoreless streak (following a four-game scoring streak, following a four-game scoreless streak) as part of a generally strong game overall. Milan Jurcina and Boyd Gordon also had decent efforts.

But these are mere morsels of positives in what is now a “please, let this end soon” season. That the Caps are playing hard at this point – and they did play hard tonight, just not especially well – is something that should be appreciated by their fans.