It's here!...almost

The Capitals have posted the schedule for rookie and training camp...

Won't be long now...

2008-2009 Previews: John Erskine

Next up, the cousins and I take a look at…

John Erskine

Last Year: 2-7-9, +1, 96 PIMs, 102 hits

Career Average (per-82 games): 2-6-8, -16, 186 PIMs

Feerless’ Take: Fans take to stars, but rosters accommodate 23 players, generally seven or eight of them being defensemen. John Erskine is probably not going to be a star in the league, but he can be valuable as a 5-6-7 defenseman. Last year, he filled in for 51 games and was on the minus side of the ledger for only 14 of those games. In fact, except for a four-game struggle from February 15-23, during which he was -6 and on the ice for seven of 14 goals scored against the Caps, he played rather well for his role. In the eleven games he played after that streak to finish the year, he rebounded to 0-1-1, +5 (with no minus games), averaging 14:30 in ice time a game. He is not a top-four defenseman on this team, but he is not a liability on it, either, so long as he plays his role and is not asked to take on major minutes or shifts against top offensive lines.

Cheerless’ Take. Cuz, I love ya, but you’re trying too hard here. Imagine a Stanley Cup contender…say, Detroit. Do you think John Erskine is going to be playing on that team? The guy’s a warrior, and he does some of the dirty jobs that teams have to have done to win, but he’s probably not going to hold onto a regular spot in the lineup if/when the young guys coming up are ready. With Steve Eminger gone and Brian Pothier still on the shelf, he could get some regular time early, but he could lose playing time to Karl Alzner as time goes on this year, even though Alzner is an entirely different kind of defenseman.

The Peerless’ Take: Last year was the first year in Erskine’s career in which he played more than half his team’s games and finished on the plus side of the ledger (he was -15 in 60 games split between Dallas and the Islanders in 2005-2006). Does that mean anything? We’re trying to figure that out. Perhaps at the age of 28, having passed the 200-games played mark in his career, and playing at least semi-regularly, he’s reaching his peak as a player. When you average playing 34 games a year in your first five seasons, it might be a reflection of the tenuous hold on an NHL roster spot that talent permits, and it might be an indicator that a player hasn’t had enough time to establish a presence at the NHL level. Erskine played in 51 games last year and gave a good account of himself in the role of a third pair, physical defenseman. He has a role on this team – he did, after all log almost two full minutes per game more in penalty killing (2:16) than did his blue line teammate, Mike Green (0:20). This is not to say Erskine is of equal value, only that he has played – and can play – a part that contributes to success on this team…a guy who will give a good effort for 14-16 minutes a night, kill some penalties, wreak some havoc among opponents, stand up for his teammates, and give the top four guys a breather without putting the club at a disadvantage. It’s a role that is underrated.

Projected: 54 games, 2-8-10, +2

Waiting for...

Well, here we are, almost at the start of a new NHL season, and there is one question on everyone’s lips…

“Does Alex have a new girlfriend?”

No, Cheerless, “will Mats Sundin play this year?” Will he? Won’t he? If Mats announces his decision in the forest, will it make a sound? Will he make a decision at all? Hard to tell, looking back over the summer…

"I played 17 years in this league…I just hope people will respect that I'm not ready to make a decision. I feel I've earned that right to make the decision when I feel it's good for myself."

-- September 5th (Vancouver Sun)
*****

"It's a lifestyle that is very intense…It's all hockey. Once training camp starts, you do nothing but eat and sleep hockey and you play every day. You have to make sure you're committed for that."

--September 4th (The Canadian Press)
*****

"I will not make up my mind before the season starts…That's how I feel right now. Others have started playing in the middle of the season. If I would feel like retiring I would say it."

-- September 3, 2008 (sportsnet.ca)
*****

"Where I am right now, I'm not at a point where I'm physically and mentally ready to make a decision…My biggest thing is, I want to make sure I'm physically and mentally prepared for the rigours of an NHL season…”

-- September 3rd (London Free Press)
*****

"I wish I had a date or a timeline in which I could tell everyone what I'm going to do. But I don't know. So I can't say anything yet."

-- September 3rd (Globe and Mail)
*****

"I'm just trying to bring my mind to a point where I can make a good decision whether or not I'm going to play hockey right now..."

-- August 13th (Vancouver Sun)
*****

"I never had a deadline. I know there was talk about the first of August, but I never said. I said sometime in August hopefully I'll be able to make a decision..."

-- August 11th (CBC.ca)
*****

“I have a lot of options I can explore…And I think I still remain (with the idea) that I want to end my career as a Toronto Maple Leafs. Saying that, though, the way the situation is right now, I don't have everything in my control, either. There's got to be a mutual agreement there…I felt very strong on the ice this year, and I felt I had as good of a year as I've had in my past 10 years, maybe. Maybe that would be an argument for me to play next year…The biggest decision that I have right now is to make sure that I feel that I'm physically and mentally ready to train for another season to continue my career, (And) to see what's going to happen with the Toronto Maple Leafs. And after that, I think we'll go from there."

-- June 21st (USA Today)
*****

One feels that we’re in the middle of a play about waiting for somebody…

Estragon: Charming spot. Inspiring prospects. Let's go.

Vladimir: We can't.

Estragon: Why not?

Vladimir: We're waiting for Sundin.

Estragon: Ah!...You're sure it was here?

Vladimir: What?

Estragon: That we were to wait.

Vladimir: He said by the tree. Do you see any others?

Estragon: What is it?

Vladimir: I don't know. A willow.

Estragon: Where are the leaves?

Vladimir: It must be dead.

Estragon: No more weeping.

Vladimir: Or perhaps it's not the season.

Estragon: Looks to me more like a bush.

Vladimir: A shrub.

Estragon: A bush.

Vladimir: A—. What are you insinuating? That we've come to the wrong place?

Estragon: He should be here.

Vladimir: He didn't say for sure he'd come.

Estragon: And if he doesn't come?

Vladimir: We'll come back tomorrow.

Estragon: And then the day after tomorrow.

Vladimir: Possibly.

Estragon: And so on.

Vladimir: The point is—

Estragon: Until he comes.

Vladimir: You're merciless.

...Indeed.

2008-2009 Previews: Jeff Schultz

The cousins – Fearless and Cheerless – are back to help with today’s look ahead at…

Jeff Schultz

Last Year: 5-13-18, +12, 61 hits

Career Average (per-82 games): 4-12-16, +13, 66 hits

Fearless’ Take: Let’s start with a fun fact from last year. As you’ll note above, Schultz was credited with 61 hits in 72 games. Did that put him among the leaders in the league? Nope, but it’s more than Sean O’Donnell (54 in 82 games), Willie Mitchell (49 in 72 games), Tom Gilbert (27 in 82 games), and Scott Hannan (58 in 82 games). Even Chris Pronger – In height and weight almost a double of Schultz, with a far bigger reputation for physical play – had 74 hits in 72 games. This is not to make a point that Schultz is far more physical than some Caps fans give him credit for being, but neither is he the nice guy on skates those fans seem to think he is, either. He held his own on last year’s club in a lot of areas: hits (5th), blocked shots (3rd), goals, (T-2nd), assists (3rd), points (3rd), ice time (4th among players with more than 40 games played). Not bad for a guy with only 110 games of NHL experience and one full season on a club that made the playoffs. And his role grew as the stakes got higher. He averaged just over 20 minutes a night (compared to his season average of 18 minutes a night) in 11 games to close the season before he was injured in the regular season finale. He is only 22 years old…he’ll get better.

Cheerless Take: It’s not that Schultz is bad; he’s not, but geez, cuz…the Caps already have enough guys who don’t do a great job of clearing the crease. They need someone to take the backsides from in front of their goalie’s face. Mike Green isn’t that guy (although he had 33 more hits than did Schultz), and Tom Poti probably isn’t, either. Until Joe Finley comes to town, Schultz is the best candidate. And before we get all smitten with his offense, he had four of his five goals over a six game stretch last year. He had one goal over his last 45 games.

The Peerless’ Take: OK, here’s another fun fact. After Christmas last year, Schultz only had seven “minus” games for the remainder of the year (in 43 total). He doesn’t get a lot of minutes against the opposition’s top pair, but his total minutes suggest he’s seeing time against players who have some offensive capability, and he logged almost as much penalty killing time per game (3:10) as did Shaone Morrisonn (3:25). Using Alan Ryder’s HockeyAnalytics ratings, he was among the top dozen penalty killing defensemen in the league last year. What he brings at this point in his career is a sense of being able to play within his capabilities. He doesn’t go for the big hit or the big rush. He plays angles well, he doesn’t take silly penalties, and he moves the puck capably. Here’s a prognostication for this year…as much as Mike Green emerged on the offensive side of the ledger last year among defensemen, Schultz is going to be that player on the defensive end this year for the Caps. He was fourth on the club in even strength time on ice last year, third in short-handed time. While he remains something of a work in progress, he’ll get bigger shares of ice time this year, and it will be a reflection of his maturity in his own end. We suspect, though, that Caps fans (some of them, anyway) will continue to bemoan his not being a big hitter. It won’t keep him from getting a considerable raise next summer when he is a restricted free agent.

Projected: 3-14-17, +15

2008-2009 Previews: Shaone Morrisonn

Having recovered from the major party political conventions, we are now ready to take up the next in our series of looks ahead with…

Shaone Morrisonn

Last year: 76 games, 1-9-10, +4
Career average (per-82 games): 2-11-13, +7

Fearless’ Take: Morrisonn has played in parts of five NHL seasons; he has never had a minus campaign. He’s had 80 minus games in his entire career. OK, that might not sound impressive, except Nicklas Lidstrom has had 71 minus games in his last 278 regular season games. Lidstrom is 38 years old and has won the Norris Trophy every year since 1743, doing so for one of the league’s elite teams. Morrisonn is 25 years old and has played on teams in Washington (until the last half of last year) that struggled with the defensive aspects of the game.

I know, I know, Morrisonn is no Lidstrom, but he ain’t chopped squid, either. He’s been consistent, he’s been steady, and he’s been just about the perfect partner for a guy like Mike Green, who can do his rush up ice around all five guys thing. Morrisonn is also playing for his next contract, too. He was awarded a $1.975 million deal in arbitration this year, and a soild year could earn him something more for 2009-2010. He is not going to light the lamp much, and his role as “the steady guy” will carve into what offense he does provide. But he’s been a solid, if unspectacular performer with the Caps who generally gets the shut down assignments. That would appear to be his role again this year.

Cheerless’ Take: Cuz…Morrisonn was +24 in his first 278 games. Nicklas Lidstrom was +27 in his last 49 games last year. Yeah, Lidstrom plays on a team that contends every year; Morrisonn has played, well, for the Caps. But still…Lidstrom is a 1787 Chateau Lafitte, Morrisonn is a decent bottle of wine from the Safeway (Fearless: cuz, you drink from the toilet with the dog...what do you know from wine?). Nathan Paetsch was 2-7-9, +3, in 59 games, if you're looking for another comparison. According to the Globe and Mail, Morrisonn’s comparables in arbitration were: Milan Jurcina, Josh Gorges, Lukas Krajicek, Mark Stuart, Garnet Exelby and Mike Komisarek (by the Caps); Trevor Daley, Tim Gleason, Fedor Tyutin, Henrik Tallinder, Anton Volchenkov and Komisarek (by the player’s representative). Some good players in there, but that many comparables on both sides seems to suggest he’s hardly irreplaceable, or even uncommon in his performance.

The Peerless’ Take…Morrisonn is not a star -- he's not a Nicklas Lidstrom knock off -- chances are he will never be an all-star, especially given how defensemen are selected these days. He is, though, a solid performer in his own end. That doesn’t lend itself to a lot of ready statistical analysis of the usual sort. One place where this sort of look is taken is at HockeyAnalytics.com , where Alan Ryder looked at a variety of defensive elements from last year. Although he admits it is difficult to separate the work of a defensive pair (in this instance Morrisonn being paired mostly with Mike Green), Morrison ranked in the top 25 among defensemen at even strength by Ryder’s measure. What’s more, Morrisonn – like a lot of Caps – had a much better time of it in the last 60 games. The difference in his game was perhaps more stark than others. Whereas he was 0-3-3, -10 before the coaching change last November (with only three “plus” games), he was 1-6-7, +14 after the change.

What does that mean for this year? For the moment, Morrisonn is probably the anchor of this defense. He won’t be stunning in either his offense or his physical play, but he won’t make many obvious gaffes, either. He’s going to have a lot of even or plus-one games. To the extent he does this, it will provide openings for Mike Green to build on the year he had last year, and that is a plus-plus for the Caps. If he has that kind of solid year, it will make for an interesting summer next year. But in the meantime…

Projected: 2-9-11, +11

Why does this call to mind Bobby Gould?

Avert your eyes, if you must but, let me introduce to...

..LeMule

The description goes like this:

This guy's no jackass - it's Mario Lemule! The goofy grinnin' donkey gets really funky when he hits the ice. This guy slips and slides, jumps and jives to the hottest, horse hoovin' hip-hop hits. Mario spends a lot of time in his private stallion stable in a prominent part of the Pittsburgh suburbs. Look out pooper-scoopers...don't step in Mario's manure!

Characteristics: Enormous ears that flap freely. Naughty "snotty" nostrils on the end of his snout. A goofy growl on his grill that makes everyone giggle. Huge hooves for reeking havoc.

We'll pass on stepping in Mario's "manure." We'll just wait for Bobby G. to kick his ass.*




* We have to thank The Pensblog for pointing the way for this one.

2008-2009 Previews: Tom Poti

Next up in our look at the upcoming 2008-2009 season…





Tom Poti

Last year: 71 games, 2-27-29, +9, 46 PIMs, 0-8-8 power play scoring
Career average (per-82 games): 7-27-34, +3, 62 PIMs


Fearless’ Take: You kind of covered it in “the tens,” cuz…

“In his 'Hanlon' segment, Poti played in only 15 of 21 games, missing six with a groin injury. He finished that part of the schedule 0-4-4, -4…In his last 56 games (he would miss another five games to injury over two separate incidents), he was 2-23-25, +13.”

23 assists in his last 56 games…that was on a pace to be his third best year in terms of assists, and he wasn’t getting the power play time that Mike Green was getting – more than two minutes fewer per game (2:39 for Poti to 4:41 for Green).

Poti also served as an effective pairing with Jeff Schultz over the second half of the season as the youngster was earning experience in his first full season in the NHL. On balance, while there remain some holes in his game, Poti proved to be a reliably good performer, if not the power play/offensive specialist that folks might have envisioned him being. There is every reason – with a full season in Washington under his belt – that he will continue to provide that kind of consistency in 2008-2009.

Cheerless’ Take: Two goals ties Poti’s lowest total in a full season in his career (he had two in 66 games in 2001-2002, split between the Rangers and Edmonton). It was the first season in his career he failed to notch a single power play goal. It was his first season without a game-winner. His strength is supposed to be as an offensive defenseman. And then there is the playoff thing…he’s been a “plus” performer only once in six playoff appearances. None of those six teams advanced past the first round, and they have a combined record of 7-24 in games. He’s been around long enough to ask, “do you think that’s going to change?”

The Peerless’ Take: Tom Poti arrived in Washington to fill a need. What was painfully absent in the two years following the lockout was scoring – or even a scoring threat – from the blue line, particularly on the power play. No Capitals defenseman had as many as 30 points in either of those two years. Only three times did a defenseman top 20 points. The top scorer over those two years, combined, among defensemen?...

Steve Eminger (6-29-35). In case you hadn’t noticed, he’s gone.

This is the void that Poti was to fill. He was a minute-eater under the abbreviated tenure of Glen Hanlon, logging no fewer than 22:47 under Hanlon. But in those last 56 games, Poti logged less than that 25 times, including 10 games of less than 20 minutes. That was a function, it would seem, of the unforeseen emergence of Mike Green. But in those fewer minutes, Poti was more effective than he was under Hanlon, perhaps also a product of better health. Given his improved performance with fewer minutes, and the emergence of Green, it represented a win-win for the club. Poti might have found his niche as a second pair, second power play unit defenseman getting 20-22 minutes a night, capable of contributing more if need be.


Projected: 4-26-30, +9

2008-2009 Previews: Milan Jurcina

It’s September, and we’re in the home stretch to the start of the season. And with that, it’s time to start taking a look at what’s ahead. In other words, it’s time to start prognosticating, and we’ll be looking at the team that’s likely to take the ice this year. We’d like to say we’ll look at a player a day up until opening night, but we can’t promise. But we will have help. The cousins – Fearless and Cheerless – will be offering up their takes on each player, which means we’ll probably have to referee this mess as they get into their infernal disagreements. But here, to start our review, we’re going to look at defensemen, starting with…

Milan Jurcina

Last year: 78 games, 1-8-9, +4. 30 PIMs, 151 hits
Career average (per-82 games): 5-9-14, +3, 54 PIMs

Fearless’ take: Jurcina came to the Caps from Boston in the 2007-2007 season and made an impression as a guy who will hit and take the body. At times last year, he gave the impression of getting away from that, but he was still second on the team in hits, first among defensemen. What’s more, he had almost 50 percent more hits last year than the year before (151 to 103) in only five more games played. Consistency is perhaps the biggest concern with his game, but the flip side of that coin is that he still hasn’t yet played 200 games in the NHL. He improved on that in the later stages of the season; he was +11 in his last 22 games.

Cheerless’ take: For a guy with such a heavy shot, he should have more goals. His goal totals have gone down over his four seasons (6-2-2-1). He had a goal in the home opener last season, and not another one for the rest of the season, although he tied a career high in assists. However, he scored as many points as John Erskine, for heaven’s sake, and Erskine played in 24 fewer games. He didn’t have a point in his last 14 games. In the last dozen games, when the Caps were going 11-1, he was only plus-1. And, even though he averaged 16:38 of ice time for the season, he was down to an average of 14 minutes for those last dozen games. He struggled in division games (1-0-1, -4, in 28 games), and maybe he should be held out of day games…he was 0-0-0, -7 in 10 matinees.

Feerless…”You made up that last stat, didn’t you?”

Cheerless…”Just callin’ ‘em like I see ‘em, cuz…”

The Peerless’ take: Jurcina’s second half (0-6-6, +8, in 39 games) was better than his first half (1-2-3, -4, in 36 games) last year. He turned 25 in June, and with that, one should expect to see more consistency of effort and judgment in his game. He is a physical player, although not a pugilist (he has no career NHL regular season bouts). When he’s on the ice he has to make his presence felt when he is out there by laying the lumber on opponents, much like his introduction to the Caps in 2006-2007 when it seemed that every night he was smearing someone along the boards. Generally, he seems to have pretty good judgment as to when to make that hit. If the Caps are a contender, he is probably a third pair defenseman (with the Green/Morrison and Poti/Schultz ahead of him), getting 16-18 minutes or so a night. More offense would be a plus, but his contribution will be in opponents having their head on a swivel, wondering when Jurcina is going to drop the hammer.

Projected: 3-10-13, +6, 48 PIMs

How they're made

This Labor Day weekend, as we're anticipating hurricanes and hockey season, we'll leave you with a couple of how-do-they-make-that videos...









This being Labor Day weekend here in the U.S., remember...someone has to make those pucks, sticks, masks, and skates. See you in a couple of days...

Empty Headers?

The Boss takes note of a blog entry at the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that is a thinly-veiled slap at Caps fans and their “devotion” to their team. On the matter of the likelihood that Verizon Center will once more, as the line of argument goes, be a “home game” for the Penguins when they visit, blogger Seth Rorabaugh opines that fans of the Penguins will be able to get tickets without having to pay the $15 premium added to the price for that game…

“…getting those tickets might be a little tougher than they have been the past three seasons. But considering how many tickets were available on StubHub and other ticket broker sites for the March 9 game, Capitals season ticket holders will probably be more than willing to help you again in 2008-09.”

Ted chose to take the “high road” in his blog by reminding folks, via photograph, of the sea of red that was the norm as last season was hurtling to its exciting finish. We do not feel so encumbered. So, here’s a tip from your Uncle Peerless, Pens fans…

Get over yourselves, already.

The Capitals, in the throes of the meltdown of a season that was 2003-2004, having underachieved, overpaid, and ultimately cratered as a franchise under the weight of bad contracts and bad play, still managed to average almost 15,000 a game while earning 59 standings points. That attendance figure was good, if such a term could be used, for 25th in the league

Meanwhile, up at the confluence, the Penguins, themselves enduring a season of woe – finishing with 58 standings points – couldn’t manage that. 11,877 fans, on average, trudged their way to Mellon “Arena” to suffer an insufferable season…dead last in the league in attendance. They were 28th in the league in capacity filled (the Caps were 25th).

The Penguins and the Capitals have been teams joined at the hip in a lot of ways over the last two decades, the Penguins enjoying the upper hand on the scoreboard in most years. In one of the ways the Penguins and Capitals have shared a struggle is in the matter of filling seats. The Penguins went to the Eastern Conference finals in the 2000-2001 season, one in which they also drew more than 16,000 fans a game, almost 99 percent of capacity. Not coincidentally, that happened to be the last year in which Jaromir Jagr skated for the Penguins.

And there is something in that. The Penguins, having had the blessings of a Mario Lemieux, a Jagr, and now a Sidney Crosby, might be said to be a “star-dependent” franchise. Truth is, from 2001-2002 through 2003-2004, the Penguins – without a Lemieux (at least the one fans knew from years past), a Jagr, or a Crosby – averaged 14,091 fans a game (including that 30th-in-the-league in 2004). And that included one last hurrah for Lemieux in 2002-2003 when he had 91 points in 67 games. Over those same three years, in two of which the Caps failed to make the playoffs, Washington averaged 15,949 a game, although those years did include the presence of Jagr. Jagr, though, was largely reviled for his lackluster effort as those years wore on.

The point here is that the insufferable look-down-their-noses attitude of Penguin fans toward Capitals fans is largely hollow. Pittsburgh is every bit as much a front-runner, star-dependent town when it comes to hockey as is Washington (and let’s face it Caps fans…Washington is, too). Pittsburgh hockey is enjoying a renaissance of sorts. It has its star into which fans can pour their hopes and dreams, the club is getting a new arena shortly, and the team is winning. In Washington, which seems to have been a year behind Pittsburgh’s curve in their respective rebuilding efforts, fans also have their star. They have a superb arena in which to watch him play. And, most important to the Caps’ success at the gate, the team is winning and showing signs of becoming a perennial contender.

As for this notion of whether the Penguins take over Verizon Center with “40 percent” of the crowd has always, in my mind, been overstated. Sure, the Penguins have enjoyed success at the Caps’ expense in their own building – a sore point among Caps fans, including this one. And that leads to a more enthusiastic response. The Penguins have represented themselves well over the years at Verizon, to their credit. But conversely, who’d want to invest the five hours each way to Pittsburgh and back to watch a game in a decrepit arena such as Mellon?

Pittsburgh is doing well, these days. Good for them. Last year, the Caps gave every indication of following in those footsteps – a marketable star, a talented and successful team being built around him, and full houses in the latter stages of the season that could well carry over into 2008-2009.

Sadly, such things do not generally last for any hockey club not calling Canada its home. Hockey just doesn’t have that kind of foothold in the States. Even in Detroit – “Hockeytown” itself – seats were left empty during last year’s playoffs as Michiganders dealt with a slumping economy.

So enjoy it while it lasts, Penguin fans. And when the Caps host Pittsburgh next February and March, do have a good time watching the game...on TV. Tickets won’t be easy to come by.

On this day in Caps history...August 25th

In 2005...the Caps signed David Steckel as a free agent.

After a four-year career at The Ohio State University (those folks insist on putting "The" in front) -- 50-55-105, +29, in 146 games -- during which he was selected 30th overall in the 2001 entry draft by Los Angeles, he played for a year splitting time with Reading in the ECHL and the Kings' AHL farm club in Manchester. After that 2004-2005 season, he was signed (three years ago on this date) by the Caps.

Steckel has shown himself to be an adept faceoff man a penalty killing/defensive specialist. However, he did have a 30-goal, 61-point campaign (in 71 games) at Hershey in 2006-2007 as the Bears went to the Calder Cup final. Improving on his five-goal output last year certainly doesn't seem out of the question.

Anyway, that's what happened on this day...

The Goaltender's Journey

There will be a lot of eyes focused on the nets this year -- not the ones into which Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green, and Alexander Semin are shooting pucks, but the one defended by Jose Theodore. His is not an enviable position, taking over for as close to a sports icon as hockey has ever produced in the Washington community -- Olaf Kolzig. No pressure, eh?

Well, this got us to thinking about goaltenders for Stanley Cup winners in the post-Gretzky, four-in-five-years era. We were wondering about their respective journeys in getting to hoist the chalice. Did they dance with who brung 'em (drafted them, that is)? If not, were they seasoned with a long resume before arriving at their opportunity? Were they successful with that club in the first year they arrived? Well, here's the tale-of-the-tape...


Eight of 19 Stanley Cup winners in this era were backstopped by goaltenders drafted by that team; nine if you count Chris Osgood's second tour with Detroit. In that respect, the goalie having been drafted by the club winning a Cups doesn't appear to be much of a factor.

Of the 10 instances in which the Stanley Cup winner had an "import," only two -- Dominik Hasek and Patrick Roy -- won in their first year with their respective clubs. It is worth noting that in nine of those 10 cases in which a goalie not drafted by the winner was in the nets, the goaltender played at least 266 games with other teams before finding ultimate success.

For those of you wondering where Theodore falls out on this...


It doesn't speak to necessarily winning a Cup this year (chances are, the Caps will not be top-of-the-heap favorites), but there is history in goaltenders taking a long and winding road before finally having their names on the Cup. It bears watching.

Thank you Terry Frei

For leaving me with this disturbing mental image...


...I won't sleep for a week.

And now...predictions (no, not ours)

It's August, which is to hockey what the Sahara is to moisture. It's a pretty dry month. That being the case, some folks just can't resist jumping the gun on predictions, even though we have six teams above the opening night cap (leaving them some personnel moves to make) and another half dozen within $2.0 million of it (suggesting that they might be in the market for some salary relief).

But, we do have predictions, and they serve as good as any topic of conversation as the last slow crawl to training camp proceeds. For your argumentative enjoyment...

Built to Last

Back in the 1990’s, when the Dallas Cowboys were winning three Super Bowls in four years in the NFL, the Cowboys’ had their “big three” – quarterback, running back, and wide receiver. By the time the Cowboys had won that third Super Bowl in four years, neither Troy Aikman, Emmitt Smith, nor Michael Irvin had reached their 30^th birthday. It was a reflection of the importance of having a core group of players (in this case, all on offense), a young group at that, and of keeping them together for a period of time. These players shared ten seasons together, from 1990-1999, and were among the most important cogs of what was arguably the most successful team in the NFL in the 1990’s.

It makes one wonder at what passes for the “big three” among NHL teams. During this agonizingly slow stretch of the hockey calendar, we were doodling with lineups and such, and wondered what the 30 teams might look like in terms of their “big threes.” Before we get too deep into this, this isn’t entirely science. One might split hairs over who plays what position among the forwards, or if one player or another is really “big three” caliber (and to extent they’re not, it might be an indicator of a club that is, or will struggle). However, we took a look at the clubs with only a few criteria in mind. The “big three” is comprised of a center, a winger, and a defenseman (goaltenders weren’t included, because they tend have longer lead times to establish themselves, and a goaltender would make “four”). To be a “big three,” the player had to be under 30 years of age, and the players had to be contributors (raw recruits of considerable promise generally aren’t in this group). See? I told you it wasn’t science. But if you’re looking for a theme to this, it is “built to last,” and part of that is how long the trio, under their current contracts (or extensions, if already signed), will be together.

So, with that, here they are, one fan’s look at the 30 “big three’s:”

And what do we glean from this? Well, for those of you paying attention, the Capitals’ big three is the most expensive of the lot, but you already suspected as much, didn’t you? That’s a product of two big-time extensions that will kick in this year.* The other leg of that triad – Nicklas Backstrom – represents some work to do down the road insofar as it is his contract that keeps the three together only through the 2009-2010 season.

We find it interesting that 17 teams will have to reassemble or re-sign their groups after this coming season, since at least one member of the big three has an expiring contract. Only two clubs have groups whose contracts permit them to be together (barring trade or other departure) for more than three years. Curiously, those two are Edmonton, which is generally thought to have a pretty good prospect pool behind such players as Shawn Horcoff, Dustin Penner, and Tom Gilbert; and Tampa Bay, which has almost no one coming in behind the likes of Vincent Lecavalier, Ryan Malone, and Matthew Carle (well, there is that Stamkos kid…). Opposite poles, as it were.

We’re looking at a snapshot here, and salaries are a moving target. So, divining a relationship between dollars and playoffs is a bit of work. Let’s look at Washington, for example…Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green, and Nicklas Backstrom will represent a $17.2 million cap hit for the 2008-2009 season. The Caps made the playoffs last year when these three represented a $7.1 million cap hit.

Let’s cut to the happy ending…does it matter? We think it does. Continuity and talent are two important ingredients for success in a league where the salary cap and the possibility of large paydays through free agency make for a lot of player movement. However, looking at the group ranked in terms of cap burden suggests that there is a third element here as well. If you look at the list above, nine of the teams in the top half (in terms of cap burden this year) made the playoffs last year. Seven clubs in the lower half made it. Even accounting for the fact that some of these “big threes” include players not on the roster last year, there are eight teams in the top half of the cap rankings having made no changes to that top three that made the playoffs last year, five in the lower half. Money helps, to a point (and in some case, moving up in the rankings reflect rewards for and retention of core elements – Washington is a case in point), but one has to build a team around these guys, too.

Here’s the thing, though. The Capitals have the youngest of the young here. Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Green – is the youngest of the 30 big threes. Seeing as how Ovechkin and Green will be together (barring trade or other departure) through the 2011-2012 season, and how Backstrom is on record as saying “I don’t want to play anywhere else in the NHL. Washington is my team,” this could be a group that will be together for quite a stretch. It just another way of showing that this is a club that is being “built to last.”

* The careful reader will note that the Caps’ being at the top of this list comes on something of a technicality – Pittsburgh’s Evgeni Malkin is conspicuously missing from the Penguins’ big three, his being a center. If he was to be included, replacing Ruslan Fedotenko, Pittsburgh’s big three costs $21,400,000. They also stay together through the 2012-2013 season. And, Ottawa has the unsettled matter of defenseman Andrei Meszaros, which could push the Senators past the Capitals in replacing Anton Volchenkov as part of their “big three.”

The first to grab the ice cream cone will win

Code for winning a series-clinching game in the Stanley Cup playoffs? Uh, no (but it wouldn't be bad as such things go). It is the latest of an equal parts disturbing and hilarious offering of video clips from Tuvanhillbilly, for whom the Caps are "a new obsession." Although in the latest offering the combatants for the eagerly sought-after ice cream cone are likened to a certain ex-president and a current professional sports commissioner, we think they have a creepy resemblance to the big-head presidents at Nationals games.

If taking a turn down one of the odder alleys of Caps Nation is your thing, well...Tuvanhillbilly is your tour guide. It's becoming a "must see" destination.

Hockey Town or Not a Hockey Town

OK, we've all seen the Ted vs. Ross posts on whether the Caps should be contracted (along with a few other teams, mostly from the Southeast). That led to this post from the source of the "5 ways I'd change the NHL" idea...

The blockbuster box office for the Capitals this summer speaks to two things: The bandwagon nature of the D.C. fan (indisputable) and the reaction from the hockey community to the current incarnation of the team. The guy who works at The Pentagon and cheered for Rod Gilbert as a young Rangers fan is buying the same season ticket as the kid who grew up in Arlington, Va. cheering for Peter Bondra -- they both love the game, and luckily have the means to watch Alexander Ovechkin 41 times a season.

Capitals fans are a proud group (to which my colleague Mr. McKeon can now attest). But what makes Washington an indispensible NHL city goes beyond the fortunes of the local team on or off the ice. For years, the naysayers have been saying D.C. will never be a Capitals town.

They miss the point: It is now, and always shall be, a hockey town.

Well, no, it's not. With all due respect to my fellow wizards, this strikes me as an over-romanticized view of what is happening here. Washington has not been, is not now, and chances are never will be a "hockey town" as the term is known with respect to, say, Toronto or Montreal or Detroit (which, despite a serious economic downturn that has largely been avoided by Washington, outdrew the Caps by almost 3,500 per game last season*).

Let's not let a couple of dozen games and a playoff round dull the memory. This is a club that couldn't draw much more than flies in December, struggled mightily with attendance the past few years, and has never been a consistent draw in the three-plus decades of its existence. It is a club that has not enjoyed a lot of success on the ice, either, with one Stanley Cup final to show for its history. It has only played in two conference finals.

This is not to say that Washington is bereft of hockey fans -- of Caps or of other teams. In fact, we think Wyshynski is dead-on when he states that "Capitals fans are a proud group." That goes for the Fan in Charge, too, who rarely lets a slight to his club go unchallenged. The sight of so many visiting jerseys at Caps games attests to hockey fans from other places who call DC home. And there is certainly a significant blogging footprint in Caps Land, which is as good an indicator as any that there are folks who care, and care deeply about the club.

Washington is a town like a lot of towns in North America when it comes to sports. Fans show up when clubs win; they don't when they lose. That the baseball Nationals, in the inaugural year of their gleaming new facility, could draw barely 70 percent of capacity this season is as good an example as any of the "bandwagon" nature of the fans locally. Only the NFL's Redskins seem immune to this.

From my chair, a "hockey town" is not one that is "personality dependent" (see: Pittsburgh, which doesn't impress me as a hockey town, either). A "hockey town" doesn't watch attendance tank when the team is doing poorly, at least not to the degree it happened here the last few years, despite arguably the game's brightest young star playing here. A "hockey town" is one where the team is covered above the fold on the front page of the sports section when it isn't the last stretch run or the first round of the playoffs. A "hockey town" isn't a sometime thing, a term only to be invoked when things are going well.

I think the Caps are, and are being built for the long haul, to be competitive season-in and season-out. I think that will keep them from having to endure the lowest-of-lows that was the 2003-2004 season and the years right after the lockout. I think it will ultimately make them a top-half or top-third club in attendance, somewhere around maybe 17-17,500 in average attendance. They will probably enjoy more and better local media coverage, but never approaching that of the Redskins (even in the best times) and probably never as consistently good as what coverage the Wizards get in basketball or the Nationals in baseball.

But before one thinks that we're being too negative or contrarian, the Capitals have done wonders for hockey in the community, inspiring a lot of youngsters to take up the sport who would not have in their absence. And that has grown a whole new generation of hockey fans, a lasting contribution to the sport in this area.

There isn't anything wrong with a city that has a hockey team not being a "hockey town." Frankly, we think the whole thought of calling Washington such is part of the intoxication of last year's storybook finish. Washington is a city in which a hockey team -- and hockey -- can thrive. For that, fans and aspiring young hockey players have the Capitals to thank. It is a franchise that has struggled from time to time, and it is entirely possible it will do so again. That doesn't diminsh one iota the passion of the fans -- old and new -- who follow the club, or run it for that matter. Heaven knows, we would put ourselves in that group of passionate fans. It just doesn't convince us that Washington is a "hockey town."

* We realize this is not an entirely fair comparison, as Detroit (which had its own struggles in the 1980's) has enjoyed considerable success for some time now and has much more hockey tradition to draw on, but that serves to support the point, too -- Detroit is a "hockey town," Washington is not.

What is it about that number?

It is a number that means "wealth" or "prosperity" in Chinese culture.

It is the number of gold medals won by Michael Phelps (which would be as many as Australia, South Korea, and Japan)

and...

There's something about August....

...that makes you think it's January, and a couple of heavyweights are duking it out at center ice. Today's tilt (or more accurately, this week's) pairs off Ross McKeon, nominally the NHL editor for Yahoo (with an exclamation point)-dot-com, but really more of a Left Coast Larry Brooks with his provincialism, taking on the Caps' Supreme Leader, Ted Leonsis.

Earlier in the week, McKeon offered up five ways he'd change the NHL, one of which would involve folding up two teams that have won Stanley Cups in the last five seasons and another that drew in excess of 17,000 to its arena for its last 19 home games last year (including playoffs), selling out 11 of them.

The Caps would be that last team...the one with the attendance bump and, not insignificantly, with the player who won four individual trophies this year.

This prompted a response from The Boss...

"...we play in the Nation’s Capital, the sixth biggest media market in the US. We are the fastest growing team in the league. We have the reigning NHL MVP on our team. We are a team that is built to last. We have a great and growing fan base. We will be a perennial playoff team for a long, long time. We intend to win a Stanley Cup. We are part of the fabric of our community. We love our fans and they love us back. We have built a franchise that is worth a quarter of a billion dollars with blood, sweat, tears and a major cash investment...."

It was reminiscent of another exchange...one short year ago...between the insufferably smug, yet adorably ignorant Steve Czaban of what is now ESPN980 sports radio and...yup, The Boss.

980's "The Sports Reporters" (an odd choice of show title, since they don't covey much about sports, and seem less like "reporters" than they do kids in a tree house talking about girls) apparently had disparaging things to say on their show regarding the rationality of DC United fans flocking to see mega-star David Beckham. Ted blogged about their not "getting it" with respect to sports coverage. Then he twisted the knife a bit...and a bit more...Steve Czaban took umbrage and decided to take it upon himself to take Ted to the woodshed, to which Ted pretty much responded, "it that all you got?"

Whatever you think about the antagonists in these spats, you gotta agree...

...there's something about August.

Calendar Mind Tricks

One of the tricks I employ when I look at a calendar and wish a future date might arrive faster is to look back the same number of days, weeks, or months and think about what I was doing then.

Well, as of today, we have 30 days until rookie camp. 30 days...ok, so what were you doing on July 16th? Here are some of the highlights from around and around...

-- Atlanta re-signed Kari Lehtonen

-- Terry Murray was named the new coach of the Los Angeles Kings

-- The NHL announced that the Detroit Red Wings and Chicago Blackhawks would face off at Wrigley Field on New Year's Day, 2009

-- The Dauphin County (PA) Commissioners declared July 16, 2008, as Bruce Boudreau Day in Dauphin County

-- The Ottawa Sun reported a "hot" rumor that would have had goaltender Martin Gerber and defenseman Andrej Meszaros sent to Los Angeles, forward Anze Kopitar dealt to Chicago, and goaltender Nikolai Khabibulin and either defenseman Brent Seabrook or defenseman Cam Barker moved to Ottawa...still waiting on that one.

-- and Eklund was reporting a rumor that Eric Lindros was going to be returning to the NHL as a Dallas Star...we're still waiting on that one, too.

Just as we are waiting on the start of rookie camp and the first whiff of the new season.