2008-2009 Previews: Alexander Semin

We’re down to the last three…

Alexander Semin

Last Year: 26-16-42, -18, 10 PPG

Career average (per-82 games): 32-27-59, -12, 13 PPG

Feerless’ Take: You listen to some folks talk about Semin, and you get the impression he is the most gifted talent on the team, surpassing that of even Alex Ovechkin, at least in terms of the offensive end of the ice. He is certainly a scorer – a 30-plus goal capable scorer, despite having fewer than 200 games of NHL experience. Last year was a lost one in some respects for Semin. He played in only six of the first 23 games, posting one goal and one assist and going minus-2. That was a pretty deep hole out which he had to climb. But he did end up netting 25 goals in his last 57 games, a 36-goal pace that was just behind his 38-goal performance of 2006-2007. For a player who shoots from distance, as opposed to a player who scores more goals from in close on rebounds and loose pucks, Semin is a very efficient shooter. He scored on 15.6 percent of his shots two years ago, when he had those 38 goals, and was successful 14.1 percent of the time last year. What he doesn’t do is shoot the puck, at least as much as one might think a “sniper” would – he was 89th in the NHL in shots last year and 30th the year before (by way of comparison, in 1997-1998, when Peter Bondra had 52 goals, he was fifth in the league in shots). Part of this is that there is but one puck to shoot, and Alex Ovechkin is on the firing end of it more than anyone in the league. Part of it, too, is that sometimes, Semin seems intent on making the last deke, turn, or curl before he shoots, and he loses the opportunity. The one thing that could help him this year, that could complete his education as a scorer, is being on the receiving end of plays that Sergei Fedorov can set up.

Cheerless’ Take: You’d like us to think that Semin is Pavel Bure in waiting, wouldn’t you? Well, for as much grief as Bure got for being a 100-foot player, he was +42 over his career of 702 games. He was never worse than -14 in any full season. Semin is already -27 in 192 games and has never been a plus player in any of his three seasons. He was -18 last year, for heaven’s sake -- -16 in those last 57 games you talked about. Maybe it was that ankle that had him on the shelf for 17 games early, or maybe he just isn’t paying enough attention in the defensive end of the ice. He was on the ice for 49 even strength goals in 63 games. That was third worst on the team among forwards, and the other two – Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom – both played in 19 more games than did Semin.

The Peerless’ Take: OK, Semin isn’t going to win a Selke Trophy. How many top-end goal scorers do? What is lost sometimes in Semin’s brief career to date is that he really has had one full season. His first year consisted of 52 games, and last year it started slowly with those 17 games missed in the first 23. Healthy, he is probably a point a game player, if not this year, then soon. He could be a 50-goal scorer, if not this year, then soon. He won’t be 25 until next March, so he has some time yet before he hits his prime. The question is not skill – he has that. It is maturity. Can he avoid the oddly boneheaded play that comes at the most inopportune time? Can he play passable defense on at least an occasional basis? Can he hone his judgment to know when to have his SportsCenter moment, when to make the smart pass, or when to just fire the puck? Semin is a work in progress. That’s really the charitable way of putting it. But folks got a glimpse late last year of the effect of a Sergei Fedorov on Semin’s play. Early on, at least from our perch, Semin looked to be almost too reverential in his approach to playing with Fedorov. But when they finally got it, Semin’s production improved considerably. With a whole season, it could be a very big year. But that’s the step Semin hasn’t yet taken.

Projected: 38-34-72, -5

This wasn't exactly what we had in mind

A few of days ago, we noted an article in the Washington Post on hockey moms and suggested that October -- that month of first chill and kids starting to lace 'em up -- be designated "Official Hockey Mom Month."

Well, the Flyers have gone and done it. Not proclaim a "hockey mom month," but...oh, let's Flyers' founder Ed Snider tell it...

“Because of the tremendous amount of publicity she has brought to our sport, we invited the most popular hockey mom in North America to our home opener to help us get our season started.”

That's right, Sarah Palin, governor of Alaska and candidate for Vice President of the United States, will drop the puck on the Flyers' home season when Philadelphia hosts the Rangers this Saturday.

Hide the moose!

Bears Maul Penguins...No, Not on Animal Planet

Last night, the Hershey Bears gave rude notice to the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (and the rest of the AHL, for that matter) that they are going to be a team to be reckoned with this year. The Bears got a goal from Keith Aucoin 96 seconds into the game and never looked back as Hershey gutted and left on the ice their opponents in an 8-4 win. In the mauling, the Bears...

- Went 5-for-7 on the power play

- Had a hat trick from returning forward Graham Mink

- Had five point nights from Mink (3-2-5) and Aucoin (1-4-5)

- Had multiple point nights from Alexandre Giroux (1-2-3), Chris Bourque (1-2-3), and Andrew Gordon (1-1-2)

- Saw Matthieu Perreault score his first goal in a Hershey sweater

- Abused two Penguin goaltenders (David Brown and Adam Berkhoel) for eight goals on 30 shots

Interesting this should have happened, because earlier in the week, Penguin forward Jonathan Filewich was talking about the new Penguins and what they were in for in joining the club...

"They know what is expected. We don’t lose here. That’s just how it is."

Well, last night might not have qualified as a loss. A pounding? A strafing? A beating? OK, but not a "loss."

Jonathan Bombulie, who is actually a very entertaining beat writer for the Penguins at the Citizens Voice in Wilkes-Barre, commented on the Penguins as a franchise that...

"The Hershey Bears and their nine Calder Cup championships probably aren’t jealous of the Penguins. Neither are the Chicago Wolves and their two titles in the last seven years. No, the Penguins aren’t a model like those who prowl the catwalk at fashion week in Paris or adorn the pages of the Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue. They’re more like the model in the lingerie section of the Sears ad."

Last night, they were like the fertilizer ads at the feed store. And the Bears?...It was only the first of 80 regular season games, but they were giving early indications of just how loaded the Caps are from top to bottom throughout the organization.

2008-2009 Previews: Viktor Kozlov

We’re getting close to the end, and the next look is at…

Viktor Kozlov

Last year: 16-38-54, +28

Career average (per-82 games): 18-31-49, +6

Fearless’ Take: Let’s get this out of the way right at the top. Kozlov is Kozlov. He is a guy who is going to be a consistent goal scorer. In the last eight seasons he has played at least 60 games, he’s scored 16-17-16-17-22-12-25-16 goals. In eight of his last nine seasons, he’s put up between 0.54 and 0.88 points per game. He’s generally had 5-7 power play goals per year (last year he had two). Whether one thinks Kozlov does or does not have the potential to score more than what he has, he is 33 years old with more than 800 games of NHL experience. He’s going to be a good bet to score somewhere in the high teens in goals and get about 50 points. He’s going to get those goals playing on the right side of the top line with Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin. If anything, Kozlov looked like a steadying influence for the early-20-somethings on that top line. After Bruce Boudreau took over, Kozlov didn’t have a point streak of more than four games (three times) and didn’t have a scoreless streak of more than three games (five times). He had only ten “minus” games in the last 61 under Boudreau, and never did he have consecutive “minus” games. There might be question marks here and there on the roster over what to expect, but Kozlov shouldn’t be among them.

Cheerless’ Take: The most lethal shooter on the planet to occupy a defense, a gifted playmaking (even if rookie) centerman, and Kozlov scored nine fewer goals than he did on Long Island in 2006-2007? Yes, he had 12 more assists than in the previous season, but wouldn’t you expect that? There isn’t anything about his game that really merits complaining about, but by the same token, it’s hard to get excited about anything he’s bringing in his game, too. Well, the last time he was in the walk year of his contract (2006-2007), he had a career year in goals (25). This is a walk year…we’ll see.

The Peerless’ Take: Some guys seem to be magnets for fan frustration. On the Caps, Jeff Schultz is such a player (he isn’t physical enough); Viktor Kozlov is another. The Peerless is not exactly sure why. One could reasonably argue (we did last year, so maybe it’s not reasonable) that Kozlov was a 30-plus goal scorer in waiting. But, he’s not. And that’s not the end of the world. He is consistent, and on a young team, that’s still a plus. He’ll be among the team leaders in most of the obvious statistics – he was fifth in goals last year, third in assists, fourth in total points, tied for first in plus-minus, fourth among forwards in average ice time. Where he might slip is in power play ice time. He was fifth among forwards who played the entire year in DC. Sergei Fedorov is likely to get a fair amount of man-advantage ice time, and Chris Clark might get some as a traffic creator. If Tomas Fleischmann shows improvement in his finishing ability, he could eat into Kozlov’s power play ice time as well. But somehow, some way, Kozlov will find himself at the end of the year somewhere close to his career averages.

Projected: 16-36-52, +19

2008-2009 Previews: Sergei Fedorov

And now…

Sergei Fedorov

Last Year: 11-30-41, -5, 6 PPG

Career Average (per-82 games): 32-46-78, +18, 10 PPG

Fearless’ Take: After suffering 191 games in Columbus over almost three seasons, looking as if he was going through the motions on the last lap of his career, he was sprung loose to join a bunch of frisky Russians and an otherwise young group with promise. He didn’t look like an old man in the 18 games he dressed for the Caps after the trading deadline. He did not put up big numbers (2-9-11, -2) in those 18 games, but he didn’t have to be the big, go-to guy. He won’t have to play that role on this team, either. He’ll probably get work to start the year centering Alexander Semin and, it would seem, Brooks Laich. It took Semin a while to get accustomed to Fedorov late last year, but scored four goals in the last six regular season games, all of which which included an assist from Fedorov. This could be as intriguing a pairing as the Backstrom-Ovechkin pair on the top line.

Cheerless’ Take: 83-65-44-42-41. That’s the last five seasons’ worth of points for Fedorov. Call it the effect of playing on bad teams (the last four years were on teams that finished below .500), but that’s not a trend you want to see, even if it is part of the hall-of-famer to be’s career winding down. And, in the last three seasons, he’s missed a total of 38 games (in the previous six seasons he missed a total of 31 games). The dip in goal-scoring Fedorov has experienced in recent years isn’t so much a function of his shot-taking as it is his shot-making. From the 1998-1999 through the 2003-2004 season, Fedorov scored on fewer than ten percent of his shots only once and was 11.7 percent overall. Since then, he has been over ten percent once in three years and was 9.1 percent overall. Is he, at this point in his career, a second line center over the long haul of 82 games?

The Peerless’ Take: The Capitals have, by their franchise standards, remarkable depth at forward in terms of scoring ability. That means Fedorov doesn’t have to be the point-plus-per-game player he was for more than a decade in Detroit. The Caps could have half a dozen players with more than 50 points this year (they had four last year), and Fedorov figures to be one of them. Something to watch, based on recent history, is that Fedorov has been a bit of a power play specialist. Of his last 29 goals over two seasons, 13 have come with the man advantage (he also has a pair of shorthanded goals). What Fedorov might no longer have in terms of high-end scoring ability, he will make up for in experience (and that which he imparts to the youngsters on the club) and versatility. With the Capitals keeping 22 on their roster – and only six defensemen – Fedorov is what amounts to the “emergency” defenseman, having played that position from time to time in his career. Once Michael Nylander went down last year, the Caps lacked an effective second line center. Specifically, they lacked a credible playmaker there to take more advantage of Alexander Semin’s finishing skills. That should not be a problem this season.

Projected: 14-38-52, +2

2008-2009 Previews: Michael Nylander

Next up…

Michael Nylander

Last Year: 40 games, 11-26-37, -19

Career average (per-82 games): 19-43-62, +7

Feerless’ Take: For a guy who played only half a season – and a good portion of that with an injury that eventually sidelined him – he scored at a pace that justified his signing. The pace he was on (23-53-76) would have exceeded his career averages in goal, assists, and points; and it would have been comparable to his best years, spent with the Rangers. He was especially effective on the power play, where his five goals and 13 assists put him on a pace to finish second on the team in goals (10) and tops in assists (27), if projected over a full season. He was on a pace to match the 37 total power play points that Alex Ovechkin had to lead the team. In terms of what Nylander was signed to do, he largely delivered in his abbreviated season.

Cheerless’ Take: The 500-pound gorilla in the room is that other number…-19. If you’re talking about “pace,” cuz, that was a number on a pace for -39. That would have been worst in the league by a country mile (Radek Bonk finished -31). Nylander was -14 at home, which is a stunning number. That “pace” (-29) was almost bad enough to be worst without playing a road game. As it was, he was next to last among all NHLers in home plus-minus (Matt Stajan was -17 in 82 games). You could argue that much of his problem was a byproduct of the torn rotator cuff that would end his season (he played six weeks with the injury and was in a position where he was unable to practice, according to reports), but now he has to come back from that injury.

The Peerless Take: Nylander has shown himself to be a fairly reliable scorer in his career – he has never finished a season with fewer than 50 points in a season in which he played at least 65 games (he’s done that six times). Only once did he score less than 60 points in such a season. What’s more, he has never finished such a season on this minus side of the ledger. Nylander is another “free agent” in that how he fits into the Caps’ scheme of things is a considerable unknown. In 19 games under coach Bruce Boudreau, he was 6-12-18, -11. He had six multi-point games in that stretch. The -11 is a flashing light that indicates “injury.” He was just not able to provide much resistance in the defensive end tending to his responsibilities. His history suggests that will be corrected, if he’s healthy. But it is that 18 points in 19 games that is most intriguing. One school of thought argues that Nylander’s east-west, peel off and set things up style is fundamentally at odds with Boudreau’s north-south, press the issue style. The results suggest that there is a common ground here. What seems as likely as not to affect his numbers is not the lingering effects of the injury as much as the ice time he might get in a crowded group of Capital scoring forwards.

Projected: 17-35-52, -2

The Year After

As we head into the 2008-2009 season, we're going to hear that the Pittsburgh Penguins are a favorite to reach the Stanley Cup final, perhaps even to win it all. And in the next breath, many of those same pundits will raise the specter of the season-after swoon, the misfortune that falls upon the Stanley Cup finalist that lost when they take the ice the following year.

Well, is there anything to it? To quote a presidential candidate..."you betcha."

The Peerless looked at the last 25 Stanley Cup runners-up, starting with the Vancouver Canucks (who lost to the New York Islanders in the 1982 final) and ending with the Ottawa Senators (who lost to the Anaheim Ducks in 2007). It is not a pretty picture. Here are the facts, by the numbers...

- 5...the number of runners-up that did not make it to the playoffs in the following year (Los Angeles in 1994, Washington in 1999, Carolina in 2003, Anaheim in 2004, and Edmonton in 2007)

- 12...of the 20 teams that did make the playoffs, the number that failed to move past the first round

- 13...the total number of playoff series won by the 25 teams over the past 25 years

- 76...the total number of games won by the 20 teams that did make the playoffs; 35 of those were won by three teams (15 by Edmonton in 1984, ten each by Boston in 1991 and Detroit in 1996)

- 1...the number of teams over the past 11 years that followed up a finals appearance by winning a playoff series in the following year (Dallas made it to round two in 2001 after losing in the finals in 2000); six other teams making the playoffs failed to win a series

- 8...the number of teams in this group of 25 that finished below .500 the year after they went to the finals

- 2...the number of teams that were swept in the opening round of the playoffs in the year follwing their finals appearance (Chicago in 1993 and Ottawa in 2008)

- 89...the average point total for runners-up in the year after they finished second

- 1...the number of teams that followed up a defeat in the final with a Stanley Cup victory the following year...Edmonton in 1984.

We will not be betting on a Penguin parade in Pittsburgh in 2009.

2008-2009 Previews: Brooks Laich

Well, we’re half way through the forwards, which brings us to…


Brooks Laich

Last Year: 21-16-37, -3, 8 PPG

Career average (per-82 games): 13-14-27, -5

Fearless’ Take: Chris Clark played in one game after November 28th last season. One might have asked who, if anyone, could step into the “unexpected” scorer role that Clark jumped into during the 2005-2006 season. Well, Brooks Laich went 17-14-31 after November 28th, a span of 58 games. That works out to a 24-20-44. He was 12-8-20 in his last 22 games. And, just as Clark was “Mr. Opportunity” in his first two years with the Caps, Laich slid into that role comfortably last year, with 10 special teams goals (eight power play, two shorthanded) and four game-winners. He finished third in goals, third in power play goals, led the club in shorthanded goals, was tied for second in game-winners, had the best shooting percentage on the team, led all forwards in blocked shots, and did all of this in barely 14 minutes of ice time per night (ninth among Cap forwards). He might have been the most efficient player on the club whose name didn’t start with “O.”

Cheerless’ Take: Chris Simon scored 29 goals in 1999-2000 and never had more than 14 in a season again. You could argue it was due, in part, to shoulder injuries (or becoming player often times exhibiting galactically poor judgment), or it might have been just one flukish year. Now, Brooks Laich is probably a fundamentally more sound player than Simon ever hoped of being, but one year doesn’t turn Randy Robitaille into Luc Robitaille, either. Then there is the matter of where he plays. He might play with Alexander Semin and Sergei Fedorov, playing a similar role to that which Chris Clark might play with Michael Nylander and Tomas Fleischmann, for example. Is he going to get chances, or is he going to play “fetch the puck?”

The Peerless’ Take: Cheerless, who cares if Laich plays “fetch the puck” (or if Clark does, for that matter)? If he plays that role well, Semin and Fedorov – should that be his line assignment – are certainly capable of knowing what to do with the puck when they get it, and the team benefits in any case. There is also the matter of special teams. Laich had eight power play goals while averaging 1:18 in power play time a game. He might not get a lot of time in that role, but he’s showed himself to have a knack (ok, for one season, anyway) for making the most of that opportunity What Laich got was an opportunity. The production he enjoyed last year was, frankly, that envisioned for Matt Pettinger. But Pettinger – who scored 36 goals combined in the two seasons preceding last year – simply couldn’t find the spark to start the year and got shoved to the back of the dog house when he didn’t improve under Bruce Boudreau. Laich jumped into the void and made the most of it. The fact is, Laich could be one of those guys who scored prolifically in junior (63 goals in 107 games in his last two seasons in Canadian junior) who struggled a bit with scoring at the pro level until: a) he got consistent playing time, and b) the light finally went on in terms of how to take advantage of what skills he has to put himself in a position to score (one hopes that a similar moment comes for someone like Boyd Gordon this year).

Projected: 16-17-33, even

The Hershey Savings and Loan

Worried about the stock market these days? Concerned you can't get a loan? Well, there is one investment institution that is looking "bullish." Or is that "bearish?"

We start with Tarik El-Bashir's article in this morning's Washington Post, chronicling the fate of Karl Alzner, Chris Bourque, and Quintin Laing, all of whom (assuming Laing clears waivers) will be headed up Route 15 to Hershey to start the season tomorrow night in Wilkes-Barre to face the Baby (infantile, childish) Penguins.

But here is what caught our eye in the report...

Because of a quirk in the collective bargaining agreement, there is no 7.5 percent cushion for bonuses this season, so all of Alzner's $1.675 million in compensation (his base salary plus performance incentives) would have counted against the Capitals' salary cap figure. By sending Alzner, 20, to the minors, the Capitals will save one day of his cap hit for every 24 hours he is in Hershey, thus allowing the team to build space under the salary cap should the team want to recall him or make an acquisition at the trade deadline.

So, the Caps save about $9,000 a day in salary cap hit by sending Alzner to Hershey. And, Chris Bourque (not to mention a few others) will be spending time at Hershey, honing his game, available for a loan on E-Z terms, so to speak, should the need arise.

At a time when our 401(k)'s are in the dumper, when we're finding loans at decent terms harder and harder to find, it's nice to know that there is still one place nearby that has the potential to pay nice dividends.

2008-2009 Previews: Chris Clark

Today, we’ll take a look at…

Chris Clark

Last year: Lost

Career average (per-82 games): 16-15-31, -5

Fearless’ Take: It’s almost like getting a free agent who is free. In the 61-game rush last year, when the Caps went 37-17-7 to close the season, Clark played a total of four (and only one after November), and had less than 11 minutes of ice time in the last two. What did the Caps, and coach Bruce Boudreau, miss? A guy who had an 82-game average of 27-23-50, even, and 104 hits in two full years with the club. And Clark has shown himself to be a consummate opportunistic player, as well. Much can be made about the fact that he’s achieved these two-year numbers playing on the right side of the top line with Alex Ovechkin (that would be taking advantage of an opportunity), but along with that, more than a third of the goals Clark scored were on special teams – ten on the power play and seven shorthanded goals. Think Coach Boudreau can find a role for that sort of player?

Cheerless’ Take: He won’t be playing on Ovechkin’s line this year, at least not to start the year. If there is one line that seems pretty well cemented, it is the Ovechkin-Backstrom-Kozlov line. He might end up having to play the role of rooting out pucks from the corners and the boards for linemates such as Michael Nylander or Tomas Fleischmann, neither of whom are suited to that role. Neither are the finisher Ovechkin is, either (Feerless…”tell me, cuz, who is?”). That might be an intriguing line in some respects, but will it be productive? And, Clark is coming off a season where he lost 57 of the last 61 games, largely to a severe groin injury. How is he going to fare, skating 41 games in the gravel pit on 7th Street?

The Peerless’ Take: You ever see those pics from long ago? The dirt-smeared face of the grunt in the trenches in war? Hockey isn’t war, but Clark is that guy in the trenches who does whatever needs to be done to help his team. He could play on any line and contribute. He plays both ends of the ice, he checks, he hits, he’ll stand up for a teammate when they’ve had their liberties abused, and he’s shown a knack for scoring the opportunistic goal. There are some people you look at in life and without knowing much about them, you still think, “leader.” Clark has that sort of presence, and it is why he is such a good fit as captain of this team. He isn’t likely to duplicate his goal-scoring total of two years ago (30), but he could have opportunities around the net playing with Nylander and Fleischmann, both of whom can play a puck possession game. Lost in last year’s injury-riddled mess is the fact that Clark was 5-4-9, even, in 18 games. That works out to a respectable 23-18-41 over 82-games, and he earned most of that total before Bruce Boudreau arrived on the scene. But whatever his output on the score sheet, he can – and will – contribute in a lot of other ways.

Projected: 14-14-28, +4

Y'all are missing the obvious symbolism

Much has been made about this photograph of Capitals players enjoying a ride at a local amusement park as part of a season ticket holder event...


First, JP over at Japers' Rink, then Puck Daddy over at Yahoo! There might be others. The worry is that the picture is a symbolic representation of a potential decline in the Caps' fortunes this year.

I think my esteemed fellow wizards have missed an essential detail in the photograph...the Capitals are smiling. Players on a club expected to go far, but who do a collective face plant in the 82-game season would not be expressing unabashed joy in such a representation.

The Peerless is here to interpret the photo in the only way it could. Consider, the coaster (representative of the ups and downs of a hockey season) has just crested. It has reached and scaled the summit. And now, the players are expressing a certain amount of joy. As you would expect, Alex Ovechkin -- seated front left (the top line left wing) is especially exuberant, not unlike his expression when scoring goals.

Don't think regular season...think "playoffs." The picture is a representation of a team expressing joy in the aftermath of having scaled the ultimate summit -- winning the Stanley Cup. And if you need further convincing of The Peerless' interpretation, consider Jose Theodore. He still wears a mask of concern on his face, as befits the most important position on the ice in the playoffs. But he looks as if he has a hint of relief in his expression as well. Besides, the hero always gets the girl.

Sidney Sets New Record...Gretzky Eclipsed

The Toronto Sun offers up its take on the top 50 players in the NHL today. Surprisingly (Toronto being in Canada, last time we looked), they ranked Alex Ovechkin number one among the top 50.

The Peerless thinks a recount is in order. Why? Well, given the accomplishment of the second ranked player, you would, too...

2. Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh

He's maintained an average of 1.56 goals per game since his start in the NHL.

1.56 goals...per game?* That works out to 128 goals per 82 games. Doesn't that mean he has a single-season record in there...somewhere?



* yes, we get it...they meant 1.56 points-per-game, which is wrong, too...coming into this season Crosby has averaged 1.38 points-per-game (294 in 213 regular season games). Oh well...

"The Soccer Mom on Steroids"

So stated Matthew Grose, who is the general manager of the SkateQuest rink in Reston,Virginia. He was describing a "hockey mom," who is enjoying a turn in the spotlight in the quadrennial circus known as the campaign for President of the United States.

Whatever your politics, most folks can probably agree (certainly hockey kids, if they know what's good for them) that "hockey moms" are, indeed, a special breed.

We couldn't find a reference in searching for the terms, so we're going to take it upon ourselves to declare October -- that month when the air turns frosty and hockey kids start thinking about getting on the ice -- "Official Hockey Mom Month."

Lipstick optional.

2008-2009 Previews: Tomas Fleischmann

And now, we're up to…

Tomas Fleischmann

Last Year: 10-20-30, -7

Career average (per-82 games): 10-18-28, -14

Fearless’ Take: Fleischmann has skill. The question is whether he has “AHL skill” or “NHL skill.” In the AHL, he was 59-74-133 in 155 career regular season games. If anything, he ramped up his performance in the playoffs, going 16-37-53 in 39 career AHL playoff games (all with Hershey). But in the NHL, he’s been somewhat slow to develop. A lot of the problem is his getting pushed around the ice a lot, not having the wherewithal to deal with the more limited time and space one gets in the NHL. Last year, going to camp without a contract, he not only played himself into a deal, but played himself onto the top line to start the season. It ended up being something of an albatross around his neck for much of the season. Set that aside for a moment and ask, for a guy who went into the 2007-2008 season with only 43 games of experience, was 10-20-30 that bad of a year, especially when he wasn’t on that top line anymore?

Cheerless’ Take: Fearless, Fleischmann has a job as a "top-six" forward. That’s his calling in the NHL. If he doesn’t cut the mustard there, he doesn’t have a job. It really comes down to that. And if he gets top-six minutes, he should get 30 points by accident on this team in an 82-game season. But let’s put that aside for a second. What’s up with that -14 in his career average? Last we checked, the rink was 200 feet long, and you generally had to play in both ends of it. He wasn’t the worst on this team in that regard (his -7 was tied with Donald Brashear and ahead of both Alexander Semin and Michael Nylander), but he’s been on the bottom half of the club in each of his three years with the Caps. He looked somewhat sturdier in camp and preseason, which could improve his ability to defend, but that will be something to watch, too.

The Peerless’ take: Fleischmann is another of those guys who is being, or will be pushed for a roster spot sooner rather than later. Chris Bourque could push him now (but for the options the club has with Bourque as far as sending him down to Hershey), and guys like Francois Bouchard, Dmitri Kugryshev, or even an Oskar Osala could push him down the road. In a sense, the apprenticeship of Tomas Fleischmann is at an end. His skills aren’t a mystery – he has displayed a talent as a fine puck handler and passer, and he’s shown an ability to score in the clutch…in the AHL. He now has more than 100 NHL games of experience under his belt. He has shown improvement (30 points for a player bringing as much experience as he had into last season wasn’t a bad result). But it is time to take another step. What might influence that is – as in the case of a few others on this team – what the third line looks like. If one presumes a top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Viktor Kozlov; and a second line of Alexander Semin, Sergei Fedorov, and Brooks Laich (for argument’s sake), then a third line might look like Fleischmann, Michael Nylander, and Chris Clark. That was, in fact, a line that worked together for a time in training camp. It would present Fleischmann with the opportunity to demonstrate that his skill isn’t limited to an “AHL” standard. But until he demonstrates that kind of a leap in production…

Projected: 10-18-28, -3

2008-2009 Previews: Matt Bradley

Fearless…Cheerless…you want to stop playin’ with the livestock and get back in here. We have work to do…

Matt Bradley

Last year: 7-11-18, +1, 2 GWG

Career average (per-82 games): 8-12-20, -4

Feerless’ Take: “Fearless” would be a good nickname for Bradley. He’s not going to score a lot, but what he does bring is energy, an affinity for hitting things in the sweater of the other club, and for taking things into his own hands when the need arises...

Bradley has been consistent in his three years with the Caps, generally putting up 20 points per 82 games, which is right there with his career average. The odd part of it is that he’s done it with decreasing ice time-per-game – 12:35 in his first year in Washington, 11:55 in 2006-2007, and 9:59 last year. Chalk one up for efficiency. He’s also been consistent in dealing punishment to opponents. In his first year in Washington, he had 120 hits in 74 games, in 2006-2007 he had 65 in 57 games (when he missed 21 games for a variety of injuries and personal reasons), and in 2007-2008 he had 126 in 77 games. He doesn’t have the offensive upside of some of the “plumbers” of the 1980’s squads, but he brings the same solid “lunch pail” ethic. The team must have seen something it liked, having signed him last May to a three-year, $3 million deal.

Fearless’ Take: Don’t get me wrong, cuz, but don’t you think three years at a million-per was a bit much for a guy who has a total of 95 points and is -18 in over 400 games? OK, he was tied for 74th in hits last year – that’s all very nice. He was also tied for 356th in points with the likes of wingers Jordin Tootoo, Stephane Veilleux, Trevor Letowski, and Chris Thorburn. All of them are paid less in the NHL than Bradley, except Letowski. Oh, he’s in the KHL.

The Peerless’ Take: Well, Cheerless, Bradley might be the highest paid among those you mentioned. He is also the only one of that group who finished the year on the plus side of the ledger (the others were a combined -35). And here is your fun fact…in the 18 games Bradley played after the trading deadline, he was 4-3-7, +7, and average more than two minutes above his season average of ice time. He got more work, more responsibility, and did rather well for a fourth liner. Bradley turned 30 over the summer. That almost puts him among the elder statesmen on this team. It also suggests that he’s settled into being a pro. Except for injury, he’s been a full time performer for the Caps in his three years here, performing an important role as a guy who will get under the skin of opponents, stand up for teammates, and pot the occasional goal…including when he calls his own number in the shootout.

Projected: 6-9-15, even

Commercial Throwdown...Mercedes Style

OK, we've all seen by now the commercial Bruce Boudreau filmed for American Service Center. OK, maybe you haven't, but now it's time for the throwdown...Bruce versus Eddie, Mercedes-a-Mercedes, cup holder versus shot clock...you be the judge...





But sorry, guys...you have a long way to go to top the master...

2008-2009 Previews: Boyd Gordon

Next up…

Boyd Gordon

Last Year: 7-9-16, +5, 55.8 pct. faceoff wins

Career average (per-82 games): 6-15-21, +1, 51.7 pct. faceoff wins

Feerless’ Take: If one were projecting Boyd Gordon into a player of the past, one that might come to mind is Kelly Miller. In 1,057 regular season games, Miller averaged 14-22-26, +6 per-82 games. But in his first two seasons in Washington, Miller averaged only 10-18-2, +10 (on better teams overall than did Gordon). While they play different positions – Miller being primarily a left wing, while Gordon is primarily a center – both bring a certain earnestness and hard-working attitude to their games. Gordon has played the role of being chiefly a defensive specialist who takes critical faceoffs. In his 67 games last year, he was in the minus column only 12 times, and only once as bad as a minus-two. And, in only 17 of 67 games did he find himself with a lower than 50 percent mark on faceoffs. It would be fair to say he was extremely consistent – one knew what they were getting with Gordon night-in and night-out. On a team that has such a high-powered offense, it is nice to have a player such as Gordon who can step out and shut down an opponent, to preserve those hard-earned gains made by the offense.

Cheerless’ Take: Kelly Miller? Don’t you mean “Kip?”…or “Kevin?” The fact is, Gordon regressed last year, at least statistically. He was held to the same number of goals as in 2006-2007 (seven), had fewer assists (nine versus 22), fewer points (16 versus 29), had a worse plus-minus (+5 versus +10, on a better team), had fewer shorthanded goals (one versus two), took fewer draws (904 versus 1,214)…and did this with no appreciable change in either total or even-strength ice time. It’s nice to have two defensive, face-off, penalty killing specialists like David Steckel and Boyd Gordon on one team, but one might consider that a luxury, too. If you had to take one, right now, would it be Gordon?

The Peerless’ Take: Well, Gordon also missed a dozen games last year due to a fractured right hand, Cheerless. That was time missed, not only to contribute to the club, but coming as the injury did in late November, it cost him time to become accustomed to new coach Bruce Boudreau’s game. He was forced to play catch-up upon returning. What it means is that he has a special need to prove something this year. He has the defense and penalty-killing thing down, and he has been consistent. But can he be that Kelly Miller-type who chipped in the average of 25-30 points a season on a consistent basis? The style that the Caps play suggests he’ll get opportunities to do that, and in fact, Gordon did show some promise as a more prolific scorer when he was in Canadian junior and in the AHL. This is a contract year for Gordon – he is a restricted free agent at the end of this season. While his are valuable skills to have on a roster that has lofty aspirations – you need the guys to do the simple, basic stuff well – he is being pushed from underneath by prospects who could challenge for playing time next year (Chris Bourque, for example, if he doesn’t make the cut this year) and from the side by players with similar skill sets (David Steckel). It’s hard to say that a guy not yet 25 years old (he will turn 25 on October 19th) is in a pivotal year of his career in Washington, but such is the state of the team now, where competition has grown keen for roster spots. It is an important year for Gordon.


Projected: 9-11-20, +7

2008-2009 Previews: David Steckel

Continuing the march through the forwards, the cousins and I turn to…


David Steckel

Last year: 5-7-12, +1, 56.3% faceoff pct.

Career average (per-82 games): he hasn’t played 82 games yet, either

Feerless’ Take: Odd, isn’t it, that Steckel doesn’t yet have a full season’s worth of NHL games experience (79 games over three seasons)? It just seems as if he’s been here a while. Maybe it’s the experience he had at Hershey in his two full seasons there that heralded his arrival in Washington (a key player in two Calder Cup finals appearances). Maybe it is his solid defensive play and faceoff acumen that merely suggests more of a veteran player. Maybe it’s merely his demeanor…blending in as an island of calm in a sea of riot (the one over on the top left, without his arms raised in the air)…


…whatever, he has built himself into a solid defense-oriented center. There does, however, seem to be an unrevealed part of his game. In 176 games at The Ohio State University, he had 50 goals. In 208 games in the AHL, he had 54 goals (including 30 in 71 games at Hershey in 2006-2007). This isn’t to suggest that he is the next 30-goal scorer on the Caps (joining Ovechkin, Semin, and Clark as players on the roster who have such seasons with the Caps), but that perhaps there might be another scoring option on the bottom half of the forward lines. But even if he doesn’t improve significantly on the scoring side, Steckel provides such consistent defensive play as to be a critical element on this team.

Cheerless’ Take: Once in seven games – once – did Steckel have a better than 50 percent winning percentage on faceoffs in the opening round playoff series against the Flyers. And, he didn’t have a plus game in the bunch. As for his regular season, he was 4-2-6, +4 in six games against Tampa Bay, but was only 1-5-6, -3 in 61 games against the rest of the league. In 67 games, he had only four in which he had more than two shots on goal, and in 21 of them, he didn’t register a single shot. That’s not a recipe for improving his offense, cuz.

The Peerless’ take: Steckel was seventh among all players taking at least 500 draws in faceoff win percentage. What is telling about that is that of the six players ahead of him, none has played fewer than 298 games in his career. In fact, of the half dozen players below him in that statistic, none have played fewer than 204 games (that would be Boyd Gordon, of the Caps, by the way). And, as far as the offense goes, there is that Tampa thing…given what Tampa’s defense is likely to look like this year, he might double his goal total against the Lightning alone. Well, probably not, but it is good to keep in mind that Steckel was a rookie last year – a more mature rookie, perhaps (26 when the season ended), but a rookie nonetheless. He does have that history of producing on the offensive side of the ledger at previous stops, but that really isn’t his role on this team. He’s really on this club to matchup against the other club’s scorers, to kill penalties, and to win important draws. If he scores on top of that, it’s gravy.

Projected: 6-9-15, +3

2008-2009 Previews: Donald Brashear

Next up among the forwards…

Donald Brashear

Last Year: 5-3-8, -7, 119 PIMs

Career average (per-82 games): 7-10-17, -7, 216 PIMs

Feerless’ Take: There comes a time when, in Brashear’s particular line of work, you become the bear no one wants to poke. It is a station in the sport that comes at the price of a lot of work and pain. Brashear has had, according to hockeyfights.com, 212 fights in his NHL career (regular, post, and pre-season). If one were to average this over his career, his 192 regular season fights would mean 17 fights per 82 games. But he hasn’t had 17 fights in any NHL season since the 1998-1999 season in Vancouver. In two seasons with the Caps, he has had 26 fights in 157 regular season games. He’s hardly become a shrinking violet, but what it’s meant for the Caps and Caps’ fans is that there are other aspects of Brashear’s game on display that suggest his contribution is not merely that of an enforcer. For one, he’s had 234 hits in those 157 games, third behind Alex Ovechkin and Milan Jurcina, which isn’t bad for a player averaging less than eight minutes a game these past two years (about a third of what Ovechkin averages). There are scoring lines, and there are crash and bang lines. Brashear has shown he can contribute to the latter in ways that don’t only focus on fisticuffs.

Cheerless’ Take: Uh, cuz?...He wears ’87,’ it doesn’t make him Sidney Brashear. He was 27th on the club in average time on ice last year (last) and 27th the year before (ahead of only Jamie Hunt). He plays those less than eight minutes a game for a reason. Here’s your fun stat…in 14 seasons, Brashear has been a plus player twice. He’s still an intimidator who will police the ice for the Caps, but the flip side of that is whether he’ll take the iffy penalty, too. You didn’t forget what happened in Boston last spring, did you, cuz?

The Peerless’ Take: Brashear’s role is to maintain order, to prevent anyone from taking undue liberties with the skill players the Caps employ. It is not a unique role in the NHL; there are several heavyweights employed in this fashion. But Brashear, despite being 36 years old, is not entirely one-dimensional. He can provide serviceable minutes on the fourth line, and in a pinch can play on the checking line. How the Caps choose to populate the top three lines will influence how Brashear is used (or the extent to which he is dressed) this year. The Caps have that surplus of scoring forwards that could man three full lines, leaving the fourth as a checking line. That would seem to argue more for something like a Bradley-Steckel-Gordon deployment, leaving Brashear as an odd man out. But there will be situations and teams against which Brashear’s presence is recommended.

We would maintain that his role is just about the toughest to do well in the NHL; it is a hard way to make a living in professional sports. But having climbed the rungs of the enforcer ladder in the early stages of his career, here is what that has produced in terms of what perhaps is a statistic surprising to Caps fans. Brashear has been in the top ten in fights only once in the last eight seasons (eighth in 2006-2007). He hasn’t been in the top-five since the 1997-1998 season. There comes a time when a player in the enforcer role has built a sufficient reputation that no one really wants to challenge him…or take liberties for which they will have to answer. In that respect, Brashear is as effective a player in his role – keeping the peace – as the “skilled” players who are at the top of the scoring lists.

Projected: 2-4-6, -4

One left...and work to do

And we’re down to one. One preseason game, Sunday afternoon against the Boston Bruins. The score is almost immaterial to the matter (heathen!) of the roster decisions that have yet to be made. At the moment, the Caps have 16 forwards. One would think that the club will keep 14. The two players who might have been thought of as on the outside looking in are Chris Bourque and Quintin Laing. Chris Bourque has made the decision to send him back down to Hershey a difficult one with his play (2-3-5, +2 in five games). Laing is one of those heart and soul guys who pours every bit of the talent he has into the aspects of the game that don’t show up on SportsCenter – blocking shots, pestering opponents, and the like.

On defense, there is something of a mystery unfolding. Assuming the club keeps seven defensemen. The roster might be set. That would mean that prospect Karl Alzner, fresh out of Canadian junior, has made the club. But it would not seem likely that he would be in a position to command regular playing time, that he would be the seventh defenseman on this roster. Whether that is a good idea for his development is a matter for the Caps’ brain trust to ponder.

But let’s suppose that the 14 forwards and seven defensemen are as follows…

Centers: Backstrom, Fedorov, Nylander, Steckel, B. Gordon

Wingers: Ovechkin, Kozlov, Semin, Laich, Clark, Fleischmann, Bradley, Brashear, Fehr

Defensemen: Poti, Schultz, Green, Morrisonn, Erskine, Jurcina, Alzner

Goaltenders: Theodore, Johnson

With that roster, the Caps are still over the salary cap by what looks like about $942,000. That problem could be solved by sending Alzner to Hershey and carrying six defensemen (something of a luxury with Hershey only a couple of hours up the road), with Sergei Fedorov serving as what amounts to an “emergency” defenseman. Or perhaps a forward could be moved to free up a spot for the relatively cheap ($625,000 cap hit) Bourque. But that would mean moving a player who has a cap hit of a million or more in excess of Bourque’s cap hit, and that narrows the candidates severely.

There is a game tomorrow, but when that is over, there is still work to be done before opening night…