Snowmageddon!

This just in... it's going to snow tomorrow.

You might have heard. In fact, there are reports that starting sometime around midday tomorrow, Washington could be in for a storm of such proportions as to have never been seen since... well, December (if that was "Snowpocalypse," is this going to be "Snowmageddon?").

Still, that storm locked down the three major area airports for a time until they could find the keys to the snow plows and get their runways cleared.

And therein lies a concern for Caps fans this weekend. Friday the team will host the Atlanta Thrashers, and we imagine that game will go off without a hitch. It might be sparsely attended, as Caps fans stay home, shovels in one hand, Topper Shutt on Twitter on their iPhones in the other. But the game should be played (the Thrashers might be stuck here until May, but that's another issue).

There are folks, though, who seem to think that the game scheduled for noon on Sunday could be a problem. The Caps are scheduled to host the Pittsburgh Penguins in a game to be broadcast nationally by the Nothing but Red Wings, Rangers, Flyers, and Penguins Broadcasting Company. If the snow lasts, as some forecasts indicate, well into Saturday night (or even Sunday morning), it could put the game in jeopardy.

Or so the argument goes.

To that, we say, "have you forgotten who leads the plucky band of Penguins?" We can see a couple of scenarios playing out...

Imagine the Penguin flight departing Montreal after their game on Saturday. Radar indicate that the entire eastern seaboard is bathed in white, the snow piling up at an inch or more an hour. Surely, the plane cannot reach Washington...

Ah, but He rises from his seat, strides purposefully to the front of the cabin and exclaims...

"Behold His mighty hand!"

"It's a miracle! It's a miracle!"

"The wind opens the snow! Crosby opens the clouds with the blast of his lips."

"He leads them through the midst of the blizzard. His will be done."

"He opens the snow drifts before them…"

Shouts of "Amen!" ensue...


Or, we can imagine the Penguins are at the departure lounge at Trudeau Airport... a scratchy holographic message is discovered in an equipment bag...


"Captain Ka-rosbi…years ago, you served my people in the Stanley Cup playoffs; now we beg you to help us in our struggle to get through the snow to Washington. I regret that I am unable to present my request to you in person; but my airplane is stuck at the gate and I'm afraid my mission to bring you to Washington has failed. I've placed information vital to the survival of NBC's Sunday programming schedule into this equipment bag... under Guerin's sock, I think. You must see our team safely delivered to Washington. This is our most desperate hour. Help me, Sidni-wan Ka-rosbi; you're our only hope."


Or perhaps the Penguins are sitting in the locker room after the game against the Canadiens. The reports out of Washington are grim -- two feet of snow, and still falling. The guys are muttering about the end of hockey for the weekend... Then, The Kid stands up...

"None of you have to go. We can all just sit here in this locker room, wait for this big snow storm to pass through, kill everything and everybody we know, or at least cancel the hockey game. The National Broadcasting Company and the NHL just asked us to save the world... uh, I mean the Sunday game. Anybody wanna say no?"

Gonch: "Five years. Haven't turned you down once. Not about to start now. I'm there. "

Billy Guerin: "Guess I can't let you go up there alone."

Orpik: "I'm with you. "

Fleury: "Man, this is - this is historic. Guys, this is, like, deep blue hero stuff! Of course I'm in."

Letang: "While I don't share his enthusiasm, you know me. Beam me up, Scotty!"

The Kid: "You all right, Max?"

Max: "I-I don't, I-I don't... Whatever you think."

The Kid: [to Geno] "How about you?"

Geno: "I'm in."

The Kid: "All right then. We go."

Letang: "I don't mean to be the materialistic weasel of this group, but do you think we'll get hazard pay or maybe an extra standing point out of this?"

...and thus, Snowmageddon is averted.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Rangers, February 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

“I’m Shaquille O’Neal…”

“…and I’m Ben Stein.”

And you guys aren’t letting me get connected this morning…

What with some “issues” with respect to our internet provider this morning, we have a somewhat abbreviated prognosto. Let’s get to the guts of it…

The Rangers suck.

That’s not merely a cheer for Caps fans at Verizon Center, it’s a statement of fact regarding the Rangers and their performance recently. To wit, since the start of the new calendar year…

- They are 6-8-3
- They have scored 37 goals in 17 games (2.18/game). Take away the 14 they scored in consecutive games against Montreal and Tampa Bay in the middle of January, and that’s 23 goals in 15 games.
- Four of the goals came from players no longer with the Rangers (Ales Kotalik, Christopher Higgins)
- They are 5-for-63 on the power play (7.9 percent); they are without a power play goal in their last seven games.
- They have been held to one or no goals nine times in 17 games.
- They have been shutout four times.

There are two players who absolutely have to perform for the Rangers for them to have even a chance to win these days…

Marian Gaborik. He has eight of the Rangers’ 37 goals since January 1st. Of the six wins the Rangers have this month, he has goals in three of them. About those eight goals since January 1st – by themselves they would rank fifth on the team for the season (not including Gaborik). 20 of his goals this year have come in the Rangers’ 25 wins. And against the Caps he has a pair of two-goal games this year. It would probably be wise to pay attention.

Henrik Lundqvist. If Gaborik has to score, Lundqvist has to keep teams from scoring, and oh, has he been doing that lately. He has had 13 appearances so far since January 1st, and in 10 of them he allowed two or fewer goals. He had a stretch in late January where he allowed 12 goals in three games, but that might be explained away as his suffering the onset of the flu that would end up keeping him out of the last two games of January. Lundqvist returned to the ice on Tuesday and held the Los Angeles Kings to two goals. Trouble is, only Gaborik could get a goal – the Rangers lost, 2-1. He is 1-1-0 against the Caps so far this season (3.03, .887).

The Rangers could use some support. Brandon Dubinsky, for example. He is the third-leading point scorer for the Blueshirts this season, and that in only 44 games. He has four goals since January 1st, two of them game-winners. But he has never recorded a goal in the regular season against the Caps in nine games (he does have four assists).

Then there is Sean Avery. In his first tour with the Rangers, his 23 goals in 80 games and 212 penalty minutes made him the darling bad boy of Manhattan. Then he ended up in Dallas. Well, that didn’t work, so back to Manhattan he came. Unfortunately – for the Rangers – he has only six goals in 52 games this season, only two of them since Thanksgiving. Once a “bad boy,” now he’s merely obnoxious. He has an assist in one game against the Caps this season.

If there is a weakness for the Rangers – other than their inability to find the back of the net with a map and a flashlight – it is their defense. More column inches have been devoted to Wade Redden and Michal Roszival by the New York Post’s Larry Brooks than have been devoted to two World Wars. None of that commentary has been complimentary. Michael Del Zotto is a defenseman with considerable promise, and he showed that early on by going 4-8-12, plus-4 in his first dozen games this year, his first in the NHL. But reality does set in with young guys, and since Thanksgiving he is 1-7-8, minus-18 in 34 games.

For the Caps, this is a big stage, and Alex Ovechkin seems to like a big stage, be it Toronto, Montreal, or the Big Apple. He has four goals in his last five games at Madison Square Garden. And, although he has ten goals since being named Captain, he has only one multi-goal game since December 19th.

In the end, the Rangers can’t score (Olli Jokinen is not the answer to that problem), and Lundqvist has to come up big after flying home from the left coast, having played a game just after coming back from the flu.

If Gaborik doesn’t score and Lundqvist doesn’t come up big (both of which have to occur for the Rangers to win these days, it seems), they have little chance. And if the Caps can get off to a good start, perhaps a couple of early goals, the crowd will be in full-throated “FIRE SATHER” roar right quick. A couple of early goals, an Ovechkin multi-goal game, and an angry crowd.

Sounds like a plan.

Caps 5 – Rangers 2

A TWO-point night: Caps 4 - Bruins 1

It could have been over before it even started.

The streak and the game, that is. The Caps made things hard on themselves early, taking four minor penalties in the first 12 minutes of the game, but found their brains, reattached them, and then made quick work of the Boston Bruins in the third period to win their franchise-record setting 11th straight game last night, 4-1, in Boston.

Hidden among the boneheaded plays for the Caps was a sublime effort by one of Massachusetts’ own – Tom Poti, who recorded a couple of superb primary assists and finished a plus-4 for the night. But even Poti’s effort paled against the play of goalie Jose Theodore, who might have played his best game in this recent run of fun by the Caps. Theodore saved ten of 11 shots on six Bruin power plays (allowing only a 5-on-3 power play goal), turned away four shorthanded shots from the B’s (as many shots as the Caps had on their own power play), stood tall against David Krejci on a penalty shot that the Bruin fired wide, and kept the net empty of pucks on 27 even strength shots to get the win. He single-handedly kept the Caps in the game in the first 14 minutes as the Caps were keeping the seat warm in the penalty box.

Once more it was the explosiveness of the Caps’ offense that turned the tide after Theodore's heroics. This time, it was in the third period when the Caps lit the fireworks. After tying the game in the second when Mike Knuble took a nice feed from the left wing wall by Tom Poti, banging the pass behind goalie Tim Thomas from about two feet out, the Caps would get what would be the game-winner and some insurance less than three minutes apart early in the third. First, Matt Hunwick committed a ghastly giveaway in his own end, putting the puck right on the stick of Alexander Semin, who found Brooks Laich for a point blank chance at Thomas. Laich converted to give the Caps their first lead. 2:47 later, it was Tom Poti, looking for all the world like Mike Green lugging the puck out of his own end and around a pair of Bruins on his way into the offensive zone. He peeled off to the right wing wall, but found Boyd Gordon inside the edge of the right-wing circle for a redirect with Bruin Steve Begin about to drape himself all over Gordon.

After that it was a case of Boston’s offense-challenged history in recent games coming back to bite them, and Alex Ovechkin sealing the deal with an empty-netter in the last minute for the final tally.

Other stuff…

-- Kanoobie was yapping at the screen when Mike Knuble was deemed having hooked David Krejci enough to award the Bruin a penalty shot. One of the criteria for awarding a penalty shot is “to restore a scoring opportunity which was lost as a result of a foul being committed by the offending team.” You could argue for a hooking call there, but it didn’t appear as though Knuble was able to deny Krejci a scoring opportunity. Theodore had to make a fine save on a shot by Krejci to get to the penalty shot.

-- Think it’s a good idea to cheese off the captain? Look at this sequence…


…The Caps got the game-winning goal less than 90 seconds later.

-- Five giveaways… total… for both teams… combined. Nine takeaways… total… for both teams… combined… Local scoring rules? At least they caught that Hunwick giveaway.

-- Discounting Ovechkin’s unassisted empty netter, seven players shared points in three goals (Poti the only multi-point player). The Caps continue to spread things around. The flip side of that is 14 Bruins on the minus-side of the ledger. That’s making a whole team play defense. No one for the opponents is getting a line or a shift off.

-- Another indicator of how the Caps are spreading things around… Ovechkin finished the game with two shots on goal, one of them the empty-net goal. And still they had four goals.

-- Three minors for Alexander Semin – high-sticking and a pair of hooking calls. We’re hoping this is merely a hiccup in his recent attention to detail.

-- John Erskine… plus-3, two hits, three blocked shots.

-- The Caps lost the overall faceoff wars, 34-38, but they did win 17 of 30 in the defensive end. Still, that is a high number of defensive zone draws, which speaks to the sluggishness with which the Caps played, especially early.

-- The Caps have played 16 games in the new year (14-2-0). They have allowed two or fewer goals in 12 of them. Just sayin’…

-- The nine-game streak with at least one power play goal ended in this one. The power play is still at 32.1 percent since the beginning of the year (18-for-56).

-- Michael Ryder is going to be seeing Jose Theodore in his sleep for the next month. Ryder had five shots on goal, and you could argue that all five of them were excellent scoring opportunities. Theodore was absolutely acrobatic in turning away some of them. And that doesn’t even include the “Varlamov-esque” paddle save at the goal line with the game tied at a goal apiece and the clock under five minutes in the second period, when the puck hit a skate and was sliding toward the open net.

This game was a classic case of the goalie keeping the team in the game until they could find their stride at the other end of the ice. Jose Theodore has done that a couple of times in this streak, but not better than he was last night. In terms of sheer compete level, it might have been his best game of the year.

And so now the team gets a day off to spend with the Dads as they head to New York to take on the Rangers tomorrow. It’s a day off well earned and perhaps just the tonic a team needs to reset and recharge to keep a recent run of success going. In case you need some hint as to what that recent run of success means…

F Street Phil Sees Shadow

Predicts four more months of Caps winning

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Bruins, February 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Caps head north tonight to try to add another win to their recent pleasantness as they travel through Lexington and Concord, to Boston to take on the Bruins for the first time since defeating them, 4-1, on opening night. They will do so proud to claim January’s NHL Player of the Month, the Captain, Alex Ovechkin…

"It is a very great mistake to imagine that the object of loyalty is the authority and interest of one individual man, however dignified by the applause or enriched by the success of popular actions."

Huh?

“The Capitals have many leaders.”

Oh, OK… you look familiar.

“You’ve probably entertained the likeness of my visage in the sale of goods.”

Oh yeah… beer labels. You’re Samuel Adams! It’s a privilege to meet a great son of Massachusetts…

“I thankee for the sentiment… I have tried to abide by the precept that He therefore is the truest friend to the liberty of his country who tries most to promote its virtue.”

Yeah, well, we hockey fans do consider beer a virtue.

“The Capitals are coming! The Capitals are coming!!”

And who is that?

“That? That would be Revere, besotted again… ‘tis a wonder how he stays upon his steed.”

How would he know the Capitals were coming? Doesn’t there have to be that whole “one if by land, two if by sea” thing?

“A falsehood, sir. Entirely a falsehood. I shall share a secret with thee…”

OK…

“There never were any ‘two if by sea.' Revere was so fluthered, he saw very much two of everything…”

Well, what the Boston Bruins are going to get this evening are two NHL “stars” – Alex Ovechkin (NHL first star of the month for January) and Nicklas Backstrom (NHL third star for last week). And what the Bruins are also getting is lower and lower in the standings, a product of their having gone 0-5-2 in their last seven games, 1-8-2 in their last 11, and 3-9-2 for the month of January.

The precipitous fall through the standings leaves Boston 11th in the Eastern Conference and looking up at the playoffs. Fortunately for the Beantowners, the Eastern Conference is as tight as can be with only three points separating 6th and 13th place. Only two points separate Boston from a spot in the top-eight. Overall, the numbers speak to Boston’s struggles…


The Bruins are having a devil of a time getting goals. In 14 games in January they managed more than three goals only once and more than two goals only three times. 26 goals for the month (1.86/game) has put a lot of pressure on Boston’s goaltending. Last year’s Vezina Trophy winner – Tim Thomas – has had an inconsistent month, certainly not at the level of last year’s Vezina-worthy production. For January Thomas was 3-5-2, 2.74, .909 and was relieved three times. He hasn’t won a game since January 14th (the last win for the Bruins). His five consecutive decisions without a win is his longest such streak this year and his longest since he closed the 2006-2007 season with seven consecutive losses. With his loss to the Capitals on opening night this season, Thomas is 9-3-2, 2.58, with one shutout for his career against the Caps.

If it isn’t Thomas, it will be Tuukka Rask. And if Thomas had a difficult month, Rask’s was one to burn the tapes of. In seven appearances for the month he had only four decisions. On three other occasions he came on in relief of Thomas. Overall he was 0-4-0, 2.96, .896 for the month. He has never faced the Capitals.

It doesn’t take an American revolutionary to figure out where Boston’s problems lie. They can’t score. Looking at their top five scorers for the year, here is how bleak it was in January…

Patrice Bergeron: 1-2-3 (he missed six games)
Blake Wheeler: 5-5-10 (but has one goal in his last six games)
Zdeno Chara: 1-4-5
Mark Recchi: 3-3-6 (one goal in his last 11 games)
David Krejci: 2-7-9 (one goal in his last ten games)

The Bruins have only one 30-point scorer for the season (Bergeron, 12-21-33), and only Marco Sturm has more than a dozen goals. He missed half a dozen games in January, too.

It gets worse… even with a 2-for-7 performance on the power play in their last game out (a 3-2 Gimmick loss to the Kings), the Bruins are 3-for-24 on the power play (12.5 percent) in their last ten games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Marc Savard

Savard missed eight games to a knee injury in January, and that comes after sustaining a broken foot in October. He has dressed for only 30 games this year in what is a disappointing season after putting up 88 points last year and not missing a game. In two games since coming back from the knee injury he has an assist in each game. He might be getting back into a groove he was settling into in late December when he had a five-game points streak (1-7-8). The Bruins desperately need it. He has had quite a bit of success against the Caps – 9-38-47 in 36 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Jose Theodore

Theodore had a rather spectacular January – 8-1-0, 2.28, .930. But he has been something of a hard-luck Harry against the Bruins in his career. Despite a 2.49 GAA, a .918 save percentage, and two shutouts, Theodore has only an 11-12-3 lifetime win-loss record against the Bruins. For this one, he is facing a goal-challenged club that is getting desperate the lower it sinks in the standings. He’s been sharp. He’s been consistent. Now the trick is to keep it going.

Keys:

1. No mercy. The Bruins can’t score and are pop-gunning their power play. So give them no chances to feel good about themselves. No softies, no dumb penalties, bear down on the PK if you do take penalties…pretty much the basics.

2. No press clippings. The Caps have won ten in a row. The Caps are playing good defense. The Caps are rising in the power rankings. Crumble up all that press and toss it.

3. Mark Marco. Marco Sturm leads the Bruins in goals (16). Since the lockout he is 5-3-8 in 12 games against the Caps (scoreless in the loss to Washington in October). And, 11 of his 16 goals have come in wins. Keep him off the score sheet.

In the end, the Caps are catching something of a break here. The Bruins aren’t getting offense from anywhere, and Tim Thomas is not at the top of his game. That is not to say that this is a walk-over game. The Bruins are not as good as their results from last year suggest, but neither are they as bad as they were in January. What they have become is one of those desperate teams that can make life difficult for a team like the Caps if they are not taken seriously. So…take them seriously.

Caps 4 – Bruins 2

January by the numbers

It was quite a January for the Capitals… 13-2-0 for the month, franchise-tying winning streak, tops in the Eastern Conference. By the numbers, it was a spectacular month. Here is the team summary with a few notes thrown in…


And while the “sum” was something to behold, so were the “parts”…



And while we’re at it, this Caps team has been quick to the “tens” – 10 points, 20 points, etc. They are in a position to obliterate the franchise record for standings points. They are on a pace for 119, and here is now they are getting there (with the record for each fastest ten-point segment -- in games it took to reach it -- for comparison)…


Quite a month.

A TWO-point, TEN-straight afternoon: Caps 3 - Lightning 2

It was a perfect 10.

OK, maybe it wasn’t quote perfect, but if you win the game and tie a franchise all-time best for consecutive wins, you can be forgiven for passing over the warts. The Caps tied that franchise-best for consecutive wins this afternoon with their tenth straight win in a 3-2 win over the gritty Tampa Bay Lightning at Verizon Center.

Give the Lightning their due. They did not come in with any intention of being extras in a set play that would see the Caps march resolutely to a record-tying performance. No, the Lightning tossed everything they had at the Caps, but in the end it came down to a goalie who many so-called “experts” view as a weak link standing tall and the captain taking things into his own hands late to secure the win.

It was a victory of persistence, both for Jose Theodore (whose persistence prevented what would be the tying goal in the first period) and for Alex Ovechkin (who had 11 of his 19 shot attempts blocked by Lightning defenders).

Other stuff…

-- In the ten game streak, this is the second time the Caps were held to three goals; they have averaged 4.7 per game in the streak.

-- It is only the third one-goal victory in the streak; the average margin of victory has been 2.6 goals.

-- Tampa Bay forwards had a total of 21 shots on goal. 11 of them (and both goals) came from the Stamkos-St. Louis-Downie line.

-- 9:33 in ice time, no fights. Zenon Konopka might have been the saddest man in the Lightning locker room after the game.

-- Ovechkin was 1-1-2 in earning the game’s first star. It was his 24th multi-point game in 47 total games played this season.

-- Alexander Semin had an assist to get a point in his ninth straight game. He is 6-10-16 over those nine games, but what’s more, he has points in 12 of his last 14 games and three game-winning goals in that run (11-12-23 in those 14 games).

-- Nicklas Backstrom had a goal and an assist (his 17th multi-point game this season) to make him 8-9-17, plus-12 in his last 13 games.

-- Maybe lost in this is that Tomas Fleischmann set a career high in points today with his pair of assists (17-22-39, eclipsing the 37 points he had last year). He is on a pace to top 60 points this season.

-- No Capital taking draws this afternoon finished on the minus-side of the ledger… except David Steckel (five for 11). It was only the second time in his last 20 games he finished on the minus side.

-- That was the 15th time in his last 16 appearances that Jose Theodore has allowed three of fewer goals. It just doesn’t have the same lyric quality, though, does it… “three-or-fewer.”

-- And for those haters who insist that the Caps cannot play defense, here is a number – 41. That was the total number of shot attempts the Lightning had this afternoon, a low number by contemporary NHL standards (the Caps had 66).

-- More for the haters… only 21 goals allowed in the ten-game streak.

-- And give a round of applause for Jose Theodore for his staying with this shot, falling backward to sweep the puck out of danger mid-way through the first period to keep the Caps up a goal...









-- Another quiet plus-2 for the ol’ dubble-nikkel. Jeff Schultz had a blank score sheet in 18 minutes of ice time except for one blocked shot.

-- Steven Stamkos had a goal and an assist for the Lightning to extend his points streak to six games… but 1-for-9 on draws?

-- The Caps were 13-for-16 on draws in the defensive zone.

On February 18, 1984, when the Capitals defeated the Blues in St. Louis by a 4-2 score to win their tenth straight game, 15 of the 34 Caps who have dressed this season had not yet been born. “Windows” still referred to framed glass. The Macintosh was better known as an apple that you ate. Gasoline was about $1.20 a gallon. Craig Laughlin was in the midst of a 20-goal season.

It was a while ago.

But now the Caps have tied that record and look to set one for themselves on Tuesday in Boston. It will make for a stern test, but for now the Caps and their fans can enjoy this one, a fine end to a fine month.

"The juice in the GM job is deals..."

That quote comes from Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Brian Burke at a press conference earlier today announcing the the first major trades of 2010.

We have admit to having something of a man-crush on Burke. His public persona might be gruff, supremely self-assured, maybe a bit too far toward the neanderthal end of the spectrum when it comes to the sort of talent toward which he gravitates, and perhaps at times something of a jerk, but as a manager of an organization, he is not boring and he gets results.

And today is why the Maple Leafs entrusted the keys to the franchise to Burke.

There seems to be a flurry of activity in Toronto today as the Leafs got a head start on the 2010-2011 season. Gone to the Calgary Flames are:

Niklas Hagman
Matt Stajan
Jamal Meyers
Ian White

The Leafs get:

Dion Phaneuf
Fredrik Sjostrom
Keith Aulie

First, the Leafs get younger -- Sjostrom is the oldest of the trio going to the Leafs at 26, three of the departing Leafs are older. They get arguably tougher, if only for the addition of Phaneuf (no surprise that Burke would go in that direction). They get the best player in the deal overall in Phaneuf (despite his troubles this year), and they get a good prospect in Aulie. The Leafs appear to add $317,000 in salary cap (annualized), according to James Mirtle.

The Flames are getting a couple of players who are unrestricted free agents at the end of the year (Hagman, Stajan) and an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent (White). For them, it could be a chance to change the mix (i.e., move Phaneuf) and get a cleaner slate on which to draw for next season.

And they weren't done. It is now being reported that the Leafs are sending Vesa Toskala and Jason Blake to the Anaheim Ducks for Jean-Sebastien Giguere. That is a cap saving of $2.0 million for the Leafs (annualized). And, with Giguere having one more year after this on his deal, the Leafs can have a more orderly transition to the Jonas Gustavsson era in goal, should it come to pass. For the Flames, they get the freedom that comes from this being the last year of Toskala's contract (a $4.0 million cap hit, annualized).

Toronto is probably out of the race for the playoffs this year -- making up 11 points and climbing over seven teams is a tall order with 26 games left -- but Burke has gotten a jump on his brother GM's on both the trading season and in getting his ducks (or Leafs) in a row for next year.

Guess this trumps that Penguins/Red Wings game as the story of the day, eh?

Here are clips from Burke's press conference from earlier today announcing the day's activity...

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, January 31st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Caps go forth this afternoon to try to grab a piece of franchise history as they host the Tampa Bay Lightning at Verizon Center, where…

“They usually call death row the Last Mile, but we call Verizon Center the Red Mile, because the stands are the color of the face of a raving lunatic.”

In other words…

“Caps fans...”

“…and taking the ice against the Caps these days is like hockey’s form of an execution.”

Interesting way to look at it. You look familiar…

“Edgecomb, Paul Edgecomb.”

And you would know about such things?

“When you’ve spent a lifetime close to a chair called ‘Old Sparky’ watching men ride the lightning, you learn about such things.”

Hey… “Old Sparky”… "ride the lightning"... fits right in with today’s game, doesn’t it?

“Figured all that out, huh? You’re almost as smart as Mr. Jingles.”

And so the Tampa Bay Lightning, the last team to defeat the Washington Capitals, walk the Red Mile this afternoon in an attempt to derail the rampaging beasts of the east, who will be out to set a franchise record for wins in a month. It won’t be easy, especially since the Lightning are likely to have the Caps’ full and undivided attention. Since the Lightning defeated the Caps in Tampa by a 7-4 score on January 12th, they are 4-3-1 in eight games. But while the Lightning do bring a winning record into this game in their last eight games, the competition against which they achieved that record was not quite top-notch. The schedule included a pair of games against Florida, Carolina, the Rangers, Toronto, Anaheim – not a top-eight team among them. Only Montreal and Atlanta were top-eight opponents in this recent run of games for the Lightning, and neither of those teams are exactly lighting things up these days. Oddly enough, perhaps, it was against the Canadiens that the Lightning had their most impressive recent win, a 3-0 shutout last Wednesday. In a way, the eight-game run is merely an extension of the season they’ve put together so far, reflected in these overall numbers:



In the eight games since the Lightning defeated the Caps, they have been outscored by their opponents by 22-17. Seven of the 17 goals the Lightning scored were on the power play (7-for-28/25.0 percent). But what the Lighting took, they gave away on special teams, allowing seven goals in 30 shorthanded situations (76.7 percent penalty killing).

Of the 17 goals scored by the Lightning in their last eight games, nine of them have been split evenly among Vincent Lecavalier, Steven Stamkos, and Martin St. Louis. These would be the three players for Tampa Bay who also have topped the 50-point mark this year. For Lecavalier, it is a solid run in what has become a solid, if unspectacular – for him – season (14-38-52 in 53 games). The Lightning center had a three-game streak without a point that ended with the first game of December, but since then has not had consecutive games without a point and has points in 19 of 27 games (9-22-31). He is 1-1-2 in two games against Washington this season.

If Lecavalier is having a solid year, then for Stamkos this season would appear to be his putting his stamp on the Lightning as the go-to guy. In only his second season, he has 28 goals, good enough to lead the Lightning and place seventh in the league. He is in the midst of a five-game points streak 3-4-7. He has a pair of goals and an assist in two games against the Caps this year.

St. Louis has been the picture of consistency for the better part of two months. Since enduring a four-game streak without a point that ended on December 4th, St. Louis has had points in 20 of 26 games (10-19-29). He has seven multi-point games in that run. In what might be a nod to Stamkos becoming the go-to guy, though, St. Louis is building his point total on the assist side of the ledger. He is on a pace to set a career high (65) in helpers (59 in 2006-2007). He is 1-2-3 in two games against Washington so far this season.

Which brings us to Steve Downie. The last time we saw the rambunctious forward against the Caps, he was trying to pick a fight with The Franchise, only to have Matt Bradley swoop in and do battle with Downie. A Lady Byng is certainly not in Downie’s future – he is closing in on a professional career high in penalty minutes this season (149, and counting, compared to 195 with four teams in two leagues last year) and has seven fights to his credit. But he is not devoid of productive benefits within the rules, either. His 26 points is sixth on the club, and his 11 goals is fifth. He does not have a point against the Caps in two games this year, but he does have 29 penalty minutes.

In the eight games since the Lightning topped the Caps, Tampa Bay has a grand total of one goal from a defenseman, that coming from Andrej Meszaros in a 5-2 loss to Florida on January 16th. This is perhaps worth noting since the Lightning defense has but one goal against the Caps among the seven they have in two games, that coming from Kurtis Foster in the 7-4 win on January 12th – the only goal he has this month. What the Tampa Bay defense might lack in scoring, they might make up for in taking penalties. Eight Lightning defensemen have more than 20 PIMs (only four Caps have more than 20).

In goal, Antero Niittymaki has the last ten decisions for the Lightning (5-4-1), but how he got there is a bit odd. He played only the last 33 minutes in getting credit for the 7-4 win over the Caps on January 12th. He played 40 minutes before getting pulled – allowing five goals on 18 shots – in a 5-2 loss to Florida on January 16th. He was yanked again after 40 minutes after allowing five goals on 20 shots in an 8-2 loss to the Rangers on January 19th. Niittymaki is capable of scaring up a superior effort (he has allowed only two goals in his last three appearances), but he is also capable of just being scary (he has been pulled in three of his last 12 appearances). The alternatives aren’t good, either – Mike Smith has lost all three career decisions to Washington with a 5.19 GAA and .832 save percentage.

The Peerless Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Ryan Malone

Malone is Tampa Bay’s second-leading goal scorer (21), but he has only two goals in his last 15 games. His providing that goal-scoring is essential to Tampa Bay’s success – he has 16 goals in 22 wins in which he participate this season. Last year he has some success against the Caps (2-2-4 in five games), but this year hasn’t registered a point in either game the teams have played. He is 5-9-14 in 22 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Brian Pothier

With Mike Green getting a three-game vacation, courtesy of the fine folks of the National Hockey League, Pothier seems likely to pick up a little more ice time, especially on the power play, where he is second to Green in average ice time per game. With four goals this season, Pothier is on the brink of tying a career high (five). He has more goals (five) and points (16, in 29 games) against Tampa Bay than he has against any other NHL team.

Keys:

1. It’s just a number. Ten follows nine, which follows eight. If one takes things one step at a time and focuses on the “one” at hand, then one might be less likely to think about the length of the winning streak. Think of it this way… it’s not a nine-game winning streak, it’s nine one-game winning streaks. This afternoon is just a chance to have another one-game winning streak.

2. Find the happy place...it's the one lighted by a red light. Steve Downie and Zenon Konopka have 334 penalty minutes and 28 fights between them. Konopka has 21 fights this year by himself, including five in his last 11 games. If Tampa is going to try to neutralize the Caps firepower and sense of mission to atone for the 7-4 whuppin’ earlier this month, these two might try to do that by way of creating some mischief. The object of the exercise is to make the Lightning pay on the scoreboard for any such truculence.

3. More power. Only the Islanders and Maple Leafs have allowed more power play goals on the road than have the Lightning. Only Carolina has allowed more power play opportunities on the road. This is not a happy statistic if you are a Lightning fan.

In the end, it is hard to see a way through to how Tampa Bay wins this game. But then again, this is hockey, and the puck is a strange and fickle creature. By the book, this game isn’t competitive after the first period, even if the Lightning are somewhat respectable in their allowance of first period goals (44, tied for 16th fewest in the league). We just think that the combination of the way the Caps have played this month, plus what might be expected to be a desire to avenge the loss to the Lightning earlier this month will lead to the Caps restoring order to the Southeast Division universe…

Caps 6 – Lightning 2

A TWO-point night: Caps 4 - Panthers 1

You know, we would like to think we have a fair command of the English language, but frankly we are running out of adjectives.

Gritty, diligent, hard-working, explosive… we’ll think of some more. But for now, let’s just look at tonight’s 4-1 win over the Florida Panthers and apply some of these adjectives…

Gritty… The Caps knew coming in that this could be a bit of a slog. Tomas Vokoun came into the game as the hottest goaltender in the league – 7-3-2 for January, a 1.41 GAA, a .958 save percentage, and three shut outs. If the Caps were going to solve him, they were going to have to work for it, and that they did, getting two on Vokoun on 26 shots in the first two periods, then two on their first seven shots in the third to break the game open.

Diligent… crashing the net, the forwards getting back on defense (a few times it was Ovechkin covering the man heading to the net, instead of the second defenseman), winning battles along the walls, doing the little things was key to not giving the Panthers many chances.

Hard-working… Name a Cap who wasn’t. Even losing Mike Green to an injury 16:51 into the second period didn’t affect the level of effort.

Explosive… Florida scored its lone goal at the 4:22 mark of the second period. The Caps scored 25 seconds later (again, Wes Johnson barely got the name of the Panther goal scorer out of his mouth on the PA announcement). Then, two goals in less than three minutes early in the third. Consider, this was against a team that allowed fewer than two goals in four of its last five games and has given up more than three goals only once this month.

Other stuff…

-- Jeff Schultz completes the set. Every skater who took the ice tonight, except for Schultz, had at least one goal this month. Schultz drove one through a Brooks Laich screen to give the Caps an insurance goal.

-- Coulda-woulda-shoulda… Dominic Moore gets a breakaway in the first half minute of the game, rings the puck off the post. That could have played with goalie Michal Neuvirth’s head.

-- Kanoobie is one happy ugly goal rally mutt. Mike Knuble gets a goal from the door step and another on a wrister, sort of soup-to-nuts, Knuble style. That’s 11 goals in his last 12 games and two game-winners in his last three games. How does that signing look now?

-- The Caps had as many shots shorthanded (five) as the Panthers had on the power play.

-- Speaking of the man advantage, that’s eight straight games with a power play goal (11-for-29/37.9 percent) and have scored at least one in 12 of 14 games in January (17-for-49/34.7 percent).

-- The Caps went 5-for-5 on the PK… that’s 32-for-36 at home this month (88.9 percent).

-- Neuvirth (finally!), Knuble, and Backstrom got the game’s three stars, but here’s a doff of the prognostatorial cap to Brian Pothier, who we thought had a fine game. He moved the puck smartly, had a couple of blocked shots, had four hits, and his two giveaways were inconsequential (in fact, he was credited with a takeaway immediately after committing a giveaway).

-- If you want to quibble about Neuvirth’s rebounds early, go ahead. But since he was pulled from the game the last time these teams met, he is 3-0-0, 1.20, .963 in four appearances. He was 17-for-17 in the third period.

-- Florida isn’t going to last in contention until they can improve their productivity. 17 of 18 skaters managed at least a shot on goal tonight (36 in all). It was only the second time in ten games the Panthers could manage more than 30 shots on goal, for all the good it did them.

-- From our perch, the hit by Dmitry Kulikov on Mike Green was a clean hit, merely unfortunate circumstance that led their knees to collide. In fact, we were more worried that Green was concussed. It was just Green in a vulnerable position, and Kulikov executing a good open ice hit.

-- The evolution of the Caps as a complete hockey team continues. John Erskine finished the game with more ice time (17:43) than did Alex Ovechkin (17:27).

-- Here is another example. The Caps had five players with eight shots on the power play. Two years ago, if the Caps had eight shots on the power play, Ovechkin had six, and Mike Green probably had the other two. Nicklas Backstrom had three tonight (one goal)

-- Jeff Schultz is back on track – plus-5 in his last three games after a plus-1 tonight. But we thought he was struggling to get the puck out of the defensive zone, and we thought he could have moved the puck along the boards more assertively on a couple of occasions. Truth be told, Mike Green was having the same sorts of problems.

-- Are the coaches confident in the defense? The five defensemen who skated in the third all had between eight and ten shifts. There was no shortening of the bench.

-- The win sets a record for wins in the month of January – the Caps are 12-2-0 this month, besting the previous record set in 2000 (11-1-2). The Caps can set a record for most wins in a month in franchise history with a win on Sunday afternoon against the Tampa Bay Lightning.

-- Alex Ovechkin is a plus-34 after going plus-2 tonight. That is a pace to finish at plus-55, which would be the highest plus-minus since Vladimir Konstantinov was plus-60 in 1995-1996. It would tie for the highest among forwards since Mario Lemieux was plus-55 in 1992-1993. The last time a forward finished higher than the pace Ovechkin is on was 1986-1987… some guy named “Gretzky” (plus-70). He is plus-15 in 14 games this month.

-- There are games when John Erskine scares us a little bit out there. Tonight was not one of those games. His compete level was excellent, hustling on a couple of occasions to keep icing calls from being washed out and winning several chases for the puck along the walls. It was a solid game in doing the gritty things.

-- We see Brooks Laich in interviews, and he is witty, charming, personable. But on the ice, he looks like one fellow you really don’t want to mess with.

-- Did you ever notice at Caps games that the ice is often tilted, that all the goals are scored at one end of the ice?. Lately, the folks in the west end of the arena aren’t getting much action in that regard. It’s all at the east end – the end at which the Caps shoot twice.

-- Oh, and meanwhile, up in Hershey… the Bears had their third straight game with at least eight goals, beating the Baby Pens, 8-6, in Wilkes-Barre. It was their fifth time in six games with at least seven goals (45 in all in those six games). Think those teams don’t like each other? There were two fights in the first 3:07 of the game, four in all, and there were three sets of coincidental roughing penalties. Shoot, goalie Braden Holtby was whistled for two roughing penalties. We’re going to see those two go at it on February 13th, and we can’t wait.

Here in DC, though, it was another multi-goal game for a Cap (what’s that, 437 this year?), two three-point games, ten players on the plus side of the ledger, 11 with hits… it was a good all-around game for the Caps against a team against whom they could have suffered a letdown. Now, they get a chance for revenge against the last team to beat them – the Tampa Bay Lightning, who beat the Caps rather soundly in Tampa on January 12th, 7-4. We suspect the Lightning will have the Caps’ full attention. That is not good news if you’re a Lightning fan.

But first things, first… this was a fine effort all around, for the ninth straight time.

Rampaging?

At NHL.com today, Dan Rosen pens an essay titled, "Capitals' rampaging offense has been unstoppable."

"Rampaging" is one of those words that trip a nerve cell deep within our addled brain. And that nerve cell is linked to the memory of a line from a somewhat obscure movie about a woeful college football team playing through a year under suspension from the NCAA.

The movie is titled, "Necessary Roughness," and one of its characters is an old school coach with a gruff (but heart of gold) personality, played by Robert Loggia (whose picture you will find in Websters if you look up "gruff").

What the phrase "rampaging offense" triggered was the memory from the movie of a locker room speech that, if you set it to the Caps -- and how an opponent might deal with that "rampaging offense -- might go like this...

"YOU KNOW HOW TO PLAY WINNING HARD-NOSED HOCKEY? YOU PLAY HOCKEY LIKE THE WASHINGTON CAPITALS PLAY HOCKEY! A team that skates like hell for their fans! They have three lines that can score, and THEY PLAY LIKE GODDAMN WILDMEN! ... NO! ... LIKE GODDAMN RAMPAGING BEASTS! And that's the way you got to do it! YOU GO OUT THERE! YOU TEAR THEIR F***ING HEADS OFF, AND YOU S**T DOWN THEIR NECKS!

"Let us pray."

Washington Capitals... "rampaging beasts"

We kinda like the sound of that.

Bill Simmons... you're wrong. We qualify

Bill Simmons, who writes a blog for ESPN.com as “The Sports Guy,” penned a column today in which he takes on the issue of tortured professional sports franchises. His inspiration was the Minnesota Vikings’ overtime loss to the New Orleans Saints this past weekend that denied the Vikings a trip to the Super Bowl.

Simmons is no stranger to the subject, and in fact might have an attachment to it that goes beyond what might be considered “healthy.” As he notes, he once wrote a column titled, “The 13 Levels of Losing,” which runs the gamut from “a Cinderella team hangs tough against a heavy favorite, but the favorite somehow prevails in the end” to “Game 6 of the 1986 World Series ... one of a kind ... maybe the most catastrophic sports loss of our lifetime.” Simmons admits to being a Red Sox fan, so his perspective might be tinged with bias.

But to the point… In today’s essay Simmons tries to quantify the ”Level 1” defeat:

(Guillotine + Stomach Punch) x (already tortured history) x (significance of the game itself) x (catchy moniker) = Level 1.

He then goes on to describe in detail the variables, those variables being:

1. You need at least a 35-year drought without a title.
2. That 35-year rule doesn't apply to relocations.
3. During that 35-plus years without a title, it's not enough to lose. You need to have your guts wrenched a few times.
4. Only teams in cold-weather cities are eligible for Level 1 unless the situation is so cruel/unusual/unforgiving that it's practically unprecedented.
5. You need to be just pessimistic enough to keep your guard up for a sucker punch but just optimistic enough to keep lowering your guard at the worst possible time.
6. Outsiders need to instinctively empathize during a Level 1 takedown.

This last one comes with something of a qualifier, and here its relevance to the Capitals becomes clear. Simmons notes that one factor that could affect the empathetic variable is

“…steady losing devoid of playoff nightmares (like the Lions or Saints). This clause unfortunately rules out fans of the following teams: the Arizona Cardinals, Atlanta Falcons, Atlanta Hawks, Boston Bruins, Chicago Blackhawks, Cincinnati Bengals, Denver Nuggets, Detroit Lions, Houston Astros, Kansas City Chiefs, L.A. Clippers, L.A. Kings, Miami Dolphins, Milwaukee Brewers, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, San Diego Chargers, San Diego Padres, St. Louis Blues, Texas Rangers, Vancouver Canucks and Washington Capitals (emphasis added).”

Bill, we don’t know just how much you follow the Washington Capitals, but in fact, the club has not had a history of “steady losing,” and in fact once had a 14-year string of making the NHL playoffs. Even when that streak was broken, the Caps did make the playoffs in four of ten years. Not consistent winning, certainly, but hardly “steady losing (like the Lions or Saints).”

In fact, the Capitals might be a sufficiently tortured fan base as to qualify as a “Level 1” item on the Simmons torture scale. Let’s look at the argument for the other five variables…

1. You need at least a 35-year drought without a title.

The Capitals are about to unveil a 35-year patch celebrating their 35 years as an NHL franchise. Number of titles won: zero. Number of times they played in the finals for a title: one.

2. That 35-year rule doesn't apply to relocations.

Unless you count the “Landover-to-DC” move, the Caps have never relocated. Not that it almost didn’t happen.

3. During that 35-plus years without a title, it's not enough to lose. You need to have your guts wrenched a few times.

Two words, “Pittsburgh Penguins.” OK, three more words, “New York Islanders.” Let’s look at the latter first. Before most Caps fans these days were alive (or had yet discovered hockey), the Islanders were the older brother making life utterly miserable for the Caps. The first time the Caps made the playoffs, it was against the Islanders in 1983. The Caps actually won a game but lost the best-of-five series, 3-1. In fact, the Islanders would be the team that eliminated the Caps in each of the first three occasions that Washington made the playoffs.

In 1986 the Caps finally turned the tables, but that was merely a crumb to torture Caps fans for what would take place the following year – the Easter Sunday game. That was the year—1987 – that the Islanders went well into Easter Sunday morning before Pat Lafontaine took a pass from behind the Caps net in the fourth overtime and –CLANG!- drove a stake into the heart of Caps Nation.

By the time the Islanders would eliminate the Caps one last time (in 1993), another team stepped up to become the Caps’ master of torture – the Pittsburgh Penguins. From 1991 through last season, the Penguins and Capitals played in eight playoff series. The Penguins have won seven of them. Three times the Caps lost after taking 3-1 leads in games, and on two other occasions they lost after taking 2-0 leads in games. On another occasion they clinched a series in overtime, on a Capitals turnover at their own blue line that resulted in a breakaway. Only in 2000 did the Penguins end the Caps’ misery quickly, but even that didn’t come without pain – that was the year that arena scheduling forced the series to play games 2 and 3 in Pittsburgh, even though the Caps had home ice advantage and should have had games 1 and 2 in Washington.

But last year’s playoff series might have been especially painful. The Caps took the regular season series from the Penguins (3-0-1) and then took a 2-0 lead in games. But the Caps then lost the next three to Pittsburgh, only to fight back to win game 6 in overtime on Penguin ice to force a game 7 in Washington. Then, early in that game 7 contest, all-world Alex Ovechkin had the puck on his stick and was in alone on Penguin goalie Marc-Andre Fleury on a breakaway early in the contest. If Ovechkin scores there, the crowd gets into the game, and the guys start feeling good about themselves, well… But Ovechkin didn’t score, the Penguins buried the Caps under an avalanche of shots, and Pittsburgh walked out with a 6-2 win.

Oh, and we won’t even speak the name, “Esa Tikkanen.” I think Caps fans have had their guts wrenched a few times.

4. Only teams in cold-weather cities are eligible for Level 1 unless the situation is so cruel/unusual/unforgiving that it's practically unprecedented.

If Washington is considered part of the “mid-Atlantic region,” it is one they share with Pennsylvania, and thus might be considered a cold-weather city. It sure ain’t Miami.

5. You need to be just pessimistic enough to keep your guard up for a sucker punch but just optimistic enough to keep lowering your guard at the worst possible time.

There might not be any team, certainly in the NHL, with a fan base as convinced of the utter inevitability of losing as Caps fans… unless they go up 3-1 in a playoff series or play a game 7. Then Caps fans think, "well, maybe..." The Caps are 2-5 in game 7’s.

In creating his “formula for torture,” Simmons says that

“you need to have all of those things. The Norwood Game [when he missed a field goal against the New York Giants that would have made the Buffalo Bills Super Bowl champions] seems like a Level 1 loss in retrospect, but Bills fans weren't fully tortured yet. Only AFTER the agony of that defeat did they become Level 1 eligible. Same for Browns fans after The Drive paved the way for the Byner Fumble a year later. The key is 'fully tortured.' You can't be a little tortured or pretty much tortured. You have to be fully tortured."

Bill, we’re fully tortured. It makes us that much more appreciative of how the Caps are playing these days. It’s been a glorious ride so far this season, one that might make Caps fans think that this – finally – is the year.

Still…

Prognosto Update!

Last September 30th, we posted “ten SWAPs” – ten silly wild-assed prognostications. OK, so… how are we doing?

Number 10… The Capitals have never led the NHL in power play conversion success. Last year’s second-place finish to Detroit and their 25.2 percent success rate are franchise bests. This year, the Caps will lead the NHL in power play conversions at 27.7 percent.

The Caps are currently at 26.1 percent, but since December 1st they are 30-for-99 (30.3 percent) in 26 games. That is a large enough sample to suggest that the 27.7 percent isn’t out of the question.

Number 9… The Capitals have never had an undefeated month (five games played minimum). January 2000 is their best on record (11-1-2). This club will have an undefeated (in regulation) February.

Given that the Caps are 11-2-0 in January, we might have a shot…

Number 8… The Caps have never had a 100-power play goal season (in 1992-1993 they had 97). This year, that mark will be topped.

With 53 power play goals in 53 games (tops in the league), this will be hard to achieve, not because of the Caps inefficiency (they lead the league in conversion rate), but comparative ineffectiveness (they are tied for 15th in total power play opportunities).

Number 7… Nicklas Backstrom will break the club record for consecutive games with an assists (nine, held by Dave Christian and Bengt Gustafsson).

Actually, we were pretty confident of this one going into the season. But Backstrom’s high this year so far is a five-game streak of helpers (January 7-15). With 29 games left there is time, but this might not be the year. We do think that eventually he will hold this record.

Number 6… The Caps will set a franchise record for playoff goals scored, team (currently 54, by the 1988 squad).

Talk to us in May.

Number 5… Quintin Laing will have a two-goal game. They will be his only two goals of the season.

We might be half right on this. Laing has two goals, but they came in separate games (November 1st against Columbus and November 7th against Florida).

Number 4… Matt Bradley will fight Donald Brashear. Bradley will win the bout when Brashear keels over in laughter at Bradley dropping his gloves.

Seeing as how: a) the Rangers don’t dress Brashear often, and b) the Rangers might want to get more firepower into the lineup for the two remaining contests these teams have with one another, this one isn’t looking likely (although they do play this coming Thursday, to let’s see).

Number 3… Michael Nylander will score a goal this year…against the Caps.

Not unless Jokerit is playing an exhibition against the Caps.

Number 2… Alex Ovechkin will carry home five trophies – Hart, Ross, Pearson, Richard, and…

…wait for it…

…Conn Smythe.

Hart?...maybe. Pearson?...could be. We like his chances for the Ross and Richard, given his production per game played. Conn Smythe?...we’re hopeful.

And the Number 1 prognostication for the Caps this season.

...Plan your parade route, kids, there’s hardware comin’ to town

They’d be hard to bet against the way they’re playing at the moment, but there is a long time until June.

That’s what Bears fans do...

John Walton of the Hershey Bears posted this request for help for a Bears fan who has been dealt an unfortunate blow. More to the story can be found here , here, and here. As John puts it at the end...

"You’ll be helping out a big Bears fan get back to the games he loves so much. We’ve got your back, Jason. That’s what Bears fans do."

edit: An update from John Walton...

"I've also gotten several notes from fans in D.C., Maryland and northern Virginia, asking what they can do if they're not coming to games and they are without a place to donate. For anyone that fits that description, drop me a note at bearsradio@hotmail.com and we'll make arrangements for you. My thanks to the D.C. blogging community for picking up this story from me and posting it so the folks that "Rock the Red" hear about Jason's story."

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, January 29th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

And today we have a special treat. I don’t know how many readers of this space have sent me e-mails asking, “Peerless, how do you crank out these posts day after day after day…”

Ok….

“after day after day after…”

Well, you get the point. The secret to grinding this stuff out is good scotch and lots of fiber. Just kidding. Actually, like many other blogs these days, we have a crack staff of professionals that make yours truly look good. And we thought it was long past time that you met them…

First we have our research interns. These young fellows spend countless hours poring over statistics, trends, models (and those young ladies really are troopers, too) to make sure that we have the latest, most up-to-date numbers to feed our readers’ insatiable hunger for… well, numbers.



Then there is our copy staff. They are a talented bunch, but sometimes they take their editing responsibilities a little too seriously. Just yesterday, one of them came up to me (well, up to about my knees) and said, “oompa loompa doompadee doo, I've got better subject for you. Oompa loompa doompadee dee, if you are wise you'll listen to me.” And you know, he was right. That post about the letter “P” before the Phoenix game really was lame.



Then there are the quality control guys. These are the guys who make sure that everything is spelled right, formatted correctly, and is generally pleasing to the eye. These guys came up with that thermometer idea, which come to think of it is the last idea they had.



And then there is our webmaster. We’d still be doing this on a typewriter but for this guy.



And it all comes together on a night like this, a well-oiled (thanks to that good scotch) machine, just like the Washington Capitals (just kidding, kids, we drink only fresh wholesome milk and eat green vegetables… are hops a vegetable?). And tonight, the well-oiled machine that is the Washington Capitals host the Florida Panthers on Fun Street.

Yes, the Caps have had a spectacular January (11-2-0). Yes, the Caps have pounded the opposition (62-32 in 13 games this month). Yes, the Caps have captured the imagination of a hockey-mad world.

But it isn’t as if the Panthers are the Washington Generals to the Caps’ Harlem Globetrotters here, either. Florida is 7-3-2 for the month and has outscored their opposition by 29-19 in 12 games. Florida hasn’t allowed more than two goals in their last seven games, since a 5-4 Gimmick loss to… well, to the Caps. It is one of only two games this month in which the Panthers have allowed more than two goals (the other a 3-2 loss at Toronto on January 5th). Here are the overall numbers...



The author of those stingy efforts lately is goaltender Tomas Vokoun, who has every decision for the Panthers this month. He is probably the hottest goalie in the NHL with a 1.41 GAA for January, a .958 save percentage, and three shut outs. He hasn’t had nearly that level of success against the Caps this year, holding at the moment a 0-1-1 record (3.43, .885) against Washington. He allowed four goals in regulation, then allowed three goals in a six round skills competition in the 5-4 Gimmick loss two weeks ago.

The other side of that coin is that the Panthers are having a Devil (or a Wild) time trying to score goals. Whatever, they’re not exactly a Flame or Lightning on ice. They have only 29 goals in 12 games this month, and six of those came in the first game of the month, a 6-2 win over Pittsburgh.

Compounding the problem is the loss of Nathan Horton who has been out since fracturing his leg in a 2-1 Gimmick loss to the Islanders a week ago. Horton, the Panthers’ leading scorer for the season, is expected to miss at least a month. Add to that the fact that David Booth hasn’t dressed since being concussed on a hit by the Flyers’ Mike Richards in a 5-1 loss to Philadelphia on October 24th. The Panthers are hopeful that Booth will be able to return to the ice before the Olympic break, but his absence for this game just underscores the offensive void left in the Panther lineup.

That means that the scoring load falls to second leading scorer Stephen Weiss – no goals in his last six games and only one in his last 14. And to third leading scorer Steven Reinprecht – no goals in his last 11 games and only two in his last 20. And to fourth leading scorer Michael Frolik – no goals in his last seven games, one in his last 12.

See a pattern?

By comparison, Rostislav Olesz is on fire. He has five goals in his last nine games, but even here there is a problem. He hasn’t lit the lamp in his last five games.

Even on the blue line things have dried up. Bryan McCabe, who leads the Panthers’ defense in scoring, doesn’t have a point in his last seven games and has only an assist in his last 10. Dennis Seidenberg not only does not have a goal this month, he doesn’t have one since Hallowe'en. And it goes on – Jordan Leopold, no goals in his last 11 games. Keith Ballard, none in his last 12.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Florida: Cory Stillman

If Florida is going to win, you would have to think Stillman has to be on the score sheet. He is 12-23-35 in 40 career games against the Caps, including a goal and an assist in three games this year. And, he has four goals in his last seven games. If Stillman can’t find his way onto the score sheet, Vokoun might have to pitch a shutout to win, and that seems unlikely in the extreme given the Caps’ offensive production this month.

Washington: Jason Chimera

Chimera hasn’t had a lot of experience against the Panthers, but he has had success in his limited exposure. He is 3-1-4 in four career games against the Caps, including what was his first multi-point game as a Cap (1-1-2) in the 5-4 win on January 13th. He is 3-5-8, plus-5 in his last ten games with the Caps.

Keys:

1. No napping. Florida is going to try to slow this game down to a walk. It will be the local, not the Acela, going from zone to zone. If the Caps fall into that trap (so to speak) and get caught napping, Florida might get the sneaky goal somewhere along the way to give Tomas Vokoun some much needed help.

2. Gatling Gun for Goals. Vokoun has faced 407 shots in 12 games this month (33.9 per game). He doesn’t seem to have suffered under the assault (3-1-2 in games in which he saw at least 35 shots in January). But the Caps have been rather efficient in scoring (14.2 percent shooting percentage for the month). If the Caps succeed at that rate and the Panthers allow the shots on goal they’ve allowed this month, it will be another “wings” night for the fans.

3. Familiarity Breeds Contempt. You could sew it on a sampler, but it applies here. The Caps are 4-0-0 against the Panthers so far this season, outscoring Florida 21-11 in the four games. It isn’t beyond imagining that the Caps might take the Panthers a bit lightly (see: “Tampa Bay,” January 12th, a 7-4 loss). Given that the Caps have scored 11 goals in the third period in the four games, it might be worth noting if they bearing down in the last 20 minutes.

In the end, the only thing that can beat the Caps here is themselves. J-S Giguere played spectacularly at times for Anaheim in Wednesday’s game against the Caps and still was lit up for three goals in 2:30 in the third period in a 5-1 loss. Tomas Vokoun might have to do better, given the offensive troubles his team has. The Caps have shown no particular inclination to see an end to this run they are on, and we’re thinking “chicken parts.”

Caps 5 – Panthers 2

Oh, I almost forgot the marketing team...


"Have fun storming the blogosphere..."

Hockey at The Big House?

The Michigan Daily reports that a rematch of 2001's "Cold War" between the University of Michigan and Michigan State University could be in the offing...

"...the long-awaited “Cold War II” matchup, this time at Michigan Stadium, is expected to be officially announced “in the coming days,” according to an Athletic Department official, who wished to remain anonymous because an official announcement has yet to be made. With the two teams scheduled to meet next season on Dec. 10 and 11, the outdoor game is widely believed to take place on Dec. 11."

Having attended both of those fine institutions (ok, Michigan sucks), we're already circling that December date on the calendar.



Thanks to Forechecker for pointing the way to finding this.

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Ducks 1

It was over in the blink of an eye, like a fireball consuming everything around it.

For 40 minutes the Washington Capitals and the Anaheim Ducks traded shot-making dominance, the Caps opening the game outshooting the Ducks 14-3. Then the Ducks outshot the Caps 16-5 to knot the shots at 19 and the goals at one apiece. Then the Caps closed the second period outshooting the Ducks 16-6. The game was still tied at one apiece, goalies Michal Neuvirth and Jean-Sebastien Giguere keeping their teams in the match.

Then, in a space of 2:30, the competitive portion of the evening was over. Wes Johnson could barely get the names of the scorers out of his mouth when another goal was scored – three in all in that 2:30. Shaone Morrisonn banking a shot from out near the blue line off Steve Eminger for the first goal, Mike Knuble converting a pass from Alex Ovechkin – and a bouncing puck at that – to net the second one, and Alexander Semin finished the three-fer by taking a long feed from Brooks Laich behind the Anaheim defense and roofing a backhand past Giguere.

Just like that… 4-1.

All that was left were two things… one, whether the Caps would get their fans a free order of wings from a local establishment by getting the fifth goal (they did, on Semin’s second of the game)… two, whether Ducks coach Randy “Stuck in ‘ought-seven” Carlyle would have the Ducks goon it up after things got out of hand (they did).

Other stuff…

-- After Semin scored to make it 4-1, the Ducks finished up the game taking four roughing minors, a slashing minor, and a fighting major penalty. In 2006-2007, the rough stuff was a tool to tenderize teams so that the Ducks’ talent could take over. This was just some pathetic nonsense that was a twisted waving of the white flag.

-- Michal Neuvirth had 30 saves. On 15 of them he froze the puck for a faceoff. The Caps won nine of the resulting 15 faceoffs. A formula that works.

-- At least it works better than four giveaways, which is what Neuvirth had for the evening.

-- The Caps out-attempted Anaheim 81-59. A lot of that was Nicklas Backstrom, who is nearly impossible to: a) keep from getting a stick on a loose puck, and b) next to impossible to separate from the puck once he has it on his stick. Eight shot attempts and an assist for 19 tonight.

-- If fans get free wings for five goals, what might we get for 50 shots? The Caps finished with 49, every skater in a red sweater getting at least one, save for Jason Chimera.

-- Spreading things around, part one: 14 of 18 skaters for the Ducks were in minus territory.

-- Ryan Getzlaf… three minor penalties, minus-1, one shot on goal, lost ten of 17 draws. They coulda had Fehr!

-- Spreading things around, part two: four multi-point games tonight, including the second one by Shaone Morrisonn in four games.

-- Alex Ovechkin was credited with only two hits? There seemed to be a fair number of Ducks bouncing off him over the 60 minutes.

-- As lopsided as the final result was, this game might have been over early, but for 12 missed shots by the Caps in the first period.

-- Six Caps took draws tonight, six Caps had a winning record on their way to winning 41 of 68 (12 of 16 in the offensive end).

-- This win is the Caps’ 11th of the month, tying the franchise best for wins in January.

-- Starting with the Caps 2-0 win over Buffalo on the day before Thanksgiving, the Caps are 22-7-0 (and that includes a three-game losing streak). They’ve outscored opponents over that span by 120-73.

-- In those 22 wins, Jose Theodore has 11, Michal Neuvirth has seven, and Semyon Varlamov has four.

-- If we told you Eric Fehr led the Caps in power play shots, would you be surprised? Well, he did (four). He had six shots overall in 12 minutes of ice time, plus a double minor for roughing. Busy fellow.

-- Bobby Ryan is a pretty sturdily built young man. He was crumpled like an empty can of Schlitz by Alex Ovechkin near the Anaheim bench. Not quite like trying to practice your step-over wrestling moves on Mike Green, is it, eh Bobby?

-- Does Ovechkin’s goal count as his third straight empty-netter?

-- It’s good to be the Captain… Ovechkin is 8-15-23 since taking the “C,” and the Caps are 11-1-0.

-- It’s good to be the Captain’s buddy… Alexander Semin is 11-10-21 since Ovechkin became captain.

-- It’s good to be the Captain’s wingman… Mike Knuble has nine goals since Ovechkin became…oh, you get the point.

-- The Caps have five players at plus-20 or better. There are only 15 such players in the entire league (Vancouver has four of the rest).

-- Since Mike Green was informed that his services were not required by Team Canada, he is 3-10-13, plus-7 in 13 games (plus-9 in his last 11 games).

The last time the Caps won eight games in a row, Alex Ovechkin was three years old (March 1989). It’s been a while. And it’s been a while since the Caps were this good. And they are getting contributions from everywhere – five points in four games for defenseman Shaone Morrisonn, a goal from John Erskine the other night for the first time in 109 games, a solid goaltending performance for Michal Neuvirth, who kept the Caps in this one until the guys could find the net with the fusillade they were unleashing on J-S Giguere. There is only one thing to do in the midst of all of this…

Enjoy the ride.