The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Rangers, March 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Welcome, hockey fans, to another edition of the last prognosto you will ever need (as long as you don’t use it for actual cash wagering). Tonight, the Caps play host to the New York Friggin’ Rangers (that’s a tip o’ the hat to our Big Apple readers). The Caps are coming off a stirring 5-4 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning, if by “stirring” you mean “they should have whacked dem guys” (another tip o’ the hat). The Rangers, meanwhile, visit Washington – the most powerful city on the face o’ de oit (take THAT Ranger fans)…

"You know, temper’s the one thing you can’t get rid of by losing it.”

Oh, pardon me, and you are…

“Rydell, Dr. Buddy Rydell, anger management therapist."

Really, and you think we have anger issues?

“I see the signs…”

OK, we’ll play along… just what could I expect in your anger… uh, “therapy?”

“Well, we need to go over some ground rules. You are to refrain from any any acts of violence including verbal assault and vulgar hand gestures. You may not use rage enhancing substances, such as caffeine, nicotine, alcohol, crack cocaine, slippy-flippy's, jelly stingers, trick sticks, bing bangs, flying willards or images of Sidney Crosby carrying the Stanley Cup.”

How 'bout fiddle-faddels?

“Under my supervision. That having been said, I'm a pretty good guy and I think you'll be pleasantly surprised how much fun we can have together.”

Geez, without slippy-flippy's or bing bangs I don't see how that's possible.

“Sarcasm is anger's ugly cousin... from now on, unacceptable.”

What about hockey games?

“They’re ok… just between you’n me, I like a good ol’ hockey game from time to time, too. I’ve even counseled some folks in hockey?”

Oh? Anyone we’d know?

“Ever hear of John Tortorella?”

OK, well, we’ll check the Yellow Pages if we need that sort of therapy, but in the meantime we have a hockey game tonight. The Rangers are coming into town after dropping a 5-4 overtime decision to the Pittsburgh Penguins in which they had a 4-2 lead in the second period, but frittered it (can we do “frittered,” Doc?) away in the third period when they were outshot 19-1 by the Penguins.

We suspect the Rangers might have their own anger issues after that one.

The big question for the Blueshirts in this one is whether Marian Gaborik and his wonky groin will be up to the challenge of skating on Verizon Center ice. Gaborik is the only truly dependable offensive threat the Rangers have, as his 35-34-69 points line at least doubles the total of any other goal getter (Ryan Callahan: 17) and is 21 points ahead of the next Ranger in line (Vaclav Prospal: 48). The struggles on offense for the Rangers are reflected in the overall numbers...

Gaborik has not played since before the Olympic break, and when he went down he was on a nice run – he was 6-2-8 in five games before lasting only 4:02 in his last appearance, that against the Pens on February 12th. His appearance tonight could be very important to the Rangers. While he was held without a goal in his seven career games against the Caps coming into the season, he is 4-2-6 in three games this year against Washington.

Speaking of Ryan Callahan, he might be the Rangers’ second leading goal scorer, but what distinguishes him is that he plays much bigger than it says in the program. Despite being 5’11”, 188 (according to NHL.com), Callahan ranks second in the league in hits (246). By way of comparison, the Caps’ leading hitter – Alex Ovechkin – has 149. He also has some pop on the power play, currently second on the club in power play goals (eight). Callahan had a three-game pointless streak going into the Olympic break, but came out of it with a two-goal effort against Ottawa in the first game back. He is 5-2-7 in ten career games against the Caps, including a pair of goals and an assist in three contests this season.

The Rangers don’t have a lot of offense, so they have to find an advantage by other means. Callahan supplies the hitting, but there is also Brandon Dubinsky, who can be a pain to play against when he is on his game, and of course, Sean Avery, who leads the league in obnoxious.

Dubinsky has three goals in four games straddling the Olympic break, with a goal in each of his first two games out of the break. He has a knack for the clutch goal, leading the team so far this season with five game-winning goals. He has a goal in two games against the Caps this year, his only one in nine career contests.

Avery’s singular talent is getting under the skin of opponents, and it seems to be a motivational tool for him. Four times this season he has accumulated more than ten minutes in penalties in a game. Three times he had points in those contests, twice he’s scored goals. In 32 games in which he has not recorded a penalty minute, he is 3-11-14 (he has 14 points in 27 games in which he has taken a seat in the penalty box). He has only an assist in two games against the Caps this year, and yes, he did have his only two minutes in penalties against the Caps this year in the game he recorded it.

The Rangers’ defense gets a lot of attention. Early on, it was the start by Michael Del Zotto, then it was the continuing development of Marc Staal. There were the struggles of Wade Redden and Michal Roszival. But through it all, the one guy who seems to get little attention is Dan Girardi. The 25-year old in his fourth season has been consistent, if not spectacular. He is fourth among Ranger defensemen in total scoring (5-10-15), tied for second in goals (five), second in penalty minutes, and is second in average ice time. He also has the only shorthanded goal for the Ranger blueliners this year. And, in a perfect alignment of “hit-and-grit” he has 140 hits on the year (13th in the league among defensemen) and 140 blocked shots (tied for sixth).

The trouble for the Rangers, though, is they have so little offense after Marian Gaborik. As if it wasn’t the case if Gaborik had no health concerns, if his groin should become a continuing issue, the season comes down to how goalie Henrik Lundqvist plays. Lundqvist, the Rangers, and Ranger fans have seen this movie before. So far, Lundqvist has taken care of his end of the bargain. Tied for 11th in GAA (with Colorado’s Craig Anderson), tenth in save percentage, and seventh in total minutes played, he has been the foundation for the Rangers once more. Even if his numbers this year don’t rise to those of Vezina finalist consideration, he has been consistent. He has one streak this year of ten appearances in allowing two or fewer goals. He had another streak of doing so in nine of ten games, and he had one of six in seven games before giving up five to the Penguins on Thursday. He has struggled against the Caps this year, though. In three appearances he is 1-2-0, 4.05, .859.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Chris Drury

Drury had a solid Olympic Games in Vancouver (a pair of goals, plus-3 in six games). The Rangers would hope that his performance for the silver medalist Team USA would serve as a springboard for a productive sprint to the finish. They might be encouraged by the fact that his is 2-1-3 in four games straddling the break, so he might be thought of as in the middle of a pretty good run. Coming into this year, Drury was 6-17-23 in 26 career games against the Caps, but he is scoreless in two games so far this season against Washington.

Washington: Matt Bradley

Bradley was the odd man out (well, one of them) when the Caps took the ice Thursday against the Lightning. On being scratched, he said, "All I can say is I wish the team well tonight and I hope they win. That's all I have to say. Walker and Belanger are good players and I wish them luck in their first game and, like I said, I want a win for our team." It’s possible to read too much into a quote, but one doesn’t get the feeling that Bradley was happy. Nor should he be; that’s what being a competitor is about. And inf nothing else, Bradley is a competitor. He hasn’t had a lot of regular season success against the Rangers (2-3-5 in 26 career games), but in the last six games he had played against the Rangers (last year’s playoff and this season), he is 3-2-5, plus-6.

Keys:

1. Special Teams. The three games this year between these teams have been a feast for the power play, a famine for the penalty killers… for both sides. The Caps are 6-for-22 on the power play, the Rangers are 6-for-15. For the Caps, the task is clear and simple… do better killing penalties. No small feat, given that the Caps have allowed at least one power play goal in eight of their last ten games and have a PK success rate over that span of, get this… 69.8 percent. The Rangers have the 28th-ranked road power play in the NHL. If the Rangers get anything out of their power play tonight, the Caps have problems.

2. Be the tortoise. In the three games so far this year, the team that scored first lost. That is not a prescription to allow the Rangers to get the first marker, only a warning that it is a 60 minute game.

3. Shake, Rattle, and Roll. The Rangers are third in the league in road hits. They will bring it with the likes of Callahan, Girardi, Avery, and Dubinsky. The Caps have to make them pay, especially in the face of an aggressive forecheck, with crisp passing in their own end to get the Rangers shorthanded going the other way. Watch the giveaway/takeaway column on the NHL.com event summary.

In the end, it is yet another game of the playoff given against the playoff wannabe. The Caps have won both games coming out of the Olympic break, but having allowed four goals to Tampa Bay on Thursday, that makes six times in eight games they have allowed at least four. 11 of the 26 goals the Caps have allowed in the past eight games have come on the opponent’s power play. Well, the Caps get their chance tonight to turn that around against a team that has a lot of trouble scoring on the power play on the road (11.8 percent), or even getting chances (102 – 27th in the league). The Rangers’ 12 total road power play goals this year is more than only Ottawa and Boston. The Caps can do this, right?... right?

Yes, they can…

Caps 4 – Rangers 2

One Number

With all the hoopla surrounding the trades of the week just ending and the Caps seeming to have righted themselves in the race to the top of the league standings, we pause for a sobering thought.

For all the statistics that are becoming available to rate team and individual performance, there is one number out there that -- if it doesn't get corrected -- could spell doom for the Caps in a playoff scenario.  That number is:

13.6

That is the difference, in percentage points, between the Caps home penalty killing (86.3 percent) and their road PK (72.7) percent.  The Caps are fourth in the league in home penalty killing, but stand 29th (ahead of only Toronto) in killing penalties on the road.  The 13.6 point disparity is the widest margin of that measure in the NHL.

Chances are at some point in the playoffs, the Caps are going to have to win a game on the road.  That chore is made of much harder when you can't kill off penalties with a team buzzing about you and their fans roaring in your face.  If there is one facet of the game the Caps need to shore up, this likely is it.

A TWO-point night: Caps 5 - Lightning 4

The Washington Capitals played the role of welcoming host tonight at Verizon Center, doing their level best to present the Tampa Bay Lightning with a win wrapped in a bow. But in the end, the cranky uncle from North Carolina said, “enough of this crap,” scored two goals, and the Caps had a 5-4 win over the Lightning.

Scott Walker, late of the Carolina Hurricanes, potted his first and second goals as a Cap, including the game-winner with 6:51 left. It wasn’t what he was brought on to do, but there weren’t many Caps tonight who were doing what they were brought here to do.

Part of that was some determined play by the Lightning, some of it was blind luck, and too much of it was a somewhat indifferent attitude in their own zone…

-- The Alexes had ten of their combined 18 shot attempts blocked, which in no small way accounts for their having a total of one point between them (Ovechkin had an assist).

-- Mike Lundin took most of those for the team, blocking seven shots by himself for the Lightning. But the one that folks might remember took place when Ovechkin got all of a one-timer and rocketed it off Andrej Meszaros. Meszaros was knocked off his pins with the shot and had a lot of difficulty getting back to the Lightning bench. Being the second period, it was the long change, so he had quite a painful skate. He did finish second on the Lightning with four blocks of his own.

-- Tampa Bay had five power plays, and the key for the Caps seemed to weather the first 25 seconds. Twice, they didn’t. The Lightning scored their two power play goals in a combined 35 seconds of power play time – that taking the faceoff in the offender’s end workin’ for ya? Vincent Lecavalier beat Eric Belanger on a draw followed by a Steve Downie goal ten seconds into one power play. Later, the same pair had the same faceoff result but the puck coming back to Lecavalier for a goal 25 seconds into the man advantage.

-- Then there was the March of the Penguins… uh, Capitals. At 13:08 of the second period Mike Green was sent off for an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty as a result of a coincidental hooking infraction to Victor Hedman. Seems the referee (Steve Kozari on your program – number 40, ask for him by name) thought Mike left his feet just a leeeeeeettle too easily. Folks in the video control room didn’t seem to agree – they replayed the moment several times. It looked like the Zapruder film after a while… “and there goes Green… down, and to the left… down… and to the left… down… and to the left.”

-- Green’s perp walk was followed six seconds later when Brooks Laich was whistled for high-sticking Mike Lundin (who probably should have gotten a star tonight, but didn’t). Then, Tom Poti got the gate 50 seconds after that for high-sticking (2-for-40 cents at Wal-Mart, tonight only). This was probably the turning point, if you could call it that. Instead of the Lightning taking advantage of the overlapping penalties to the Caps, they came up empty to close the second period, trailing at the second intermission 3-2.

-- You could tell the Caps still have some rust. There were several times tonight when plays opened up a seam in close, but the Caps couldn’t seal the deal, the puck either passed to close to Ovechkin’s feet for a one-timer, or just past the stick of Mike Knuble, or up over a stick and back out of the zone.

-- Scott Walker moment – his two goals came in a sparse 7:33 of ice time. He had five shot attempts (that’s Ovechkian in its pace) and three hits. Packs a lot of fun in his seven minutes, this guy.

-- Marty St. Louis looked for all the world as if he’s just as happy sitting on the outside being the set up guy for Steven Stamkos (who has become quite a load). Three assists for the diminutive one.

-- Need evidence of the development of young Mr. Stamkos? A goal, six shots, 12 shot attempts, three hits, split 14 draws, and almost 24 minutes of ice time. He was still a minus-1, though.

-- The Caps looked rather discombobulated for stretches tonight. While we do attribute that to some lingering rust (and a recurring penchant for attempting the cutey-pie pass when pounding the shot on net will do), the Caps were incorporating three new guys in the lineup. Chemistry isn’t usually of the “instant” variety.

-- Speaking new guys… Belanger, Walker, and Joe Corvo went a combined 2-0-2, plus-3.

-- Speaking of new guys II… of the five goals tonight, four were scored by players not with the club last year (Walker, Knuble).

-- Knuble had a couple of nice ones. The first came off a wrist shot, converting a rush with Brooks Laich on his left. One doesn’t usually see Knuble scoring from open ice like that. The other one came off a scramble in front and Knuble giving goalie Mike Smith a whole lot of backside as a screen. A shot from Nicklas Backstrom was blocked by Mark Parrish before it got to Smith, but with the puck lying between the hash marks, Knuble did a half turn backwards and flipped the puck past Smith’s left pad. Kanoobie was doing flips when the goal was replayed.

-- Give credit to Laich on the first Knuble goal for jumping past Matt Smaby at the Caps’ blue line when Smaby fumbled the puck. Laich got to it first, fended off Smaby, then outraced him down the left side to set up Knuble trailing on the right side.

-- Semyon Varlamov might escape full blame for any of the goals he allowed, but one couldn’t really say he was sharp. If he was, we suspect he’d want the second Lecavalier goal back. He bit on a fake slap shot as Lecavalier was steaming in on a semi-break away. Lecavalier pulled the puck just a touch to the outside, but it was enough as Varlamov had already gone into defense of the shot he thought was coming. Lecavalier ripped the puck past Varlamov’s blocker for the score.

-- On Lecavalier’s first goal, don’t blame the new guys. He circled past Nicklas Backstrom, who lost Lecavalier behind him, and Tom Poti did not close quickly enough to prevent Lecavalier from accepting a pass wide open between the hash marks. Varlamov had no chance on that one. Neither did he have much of a chance on Stamkos’ goal, which seemed more the product of bad communication among Joe Corvo, Brendan Morrison, and Tom Poti. Stamkos found himself just inside the left wing hash marks with just enough time to snap the puck through Varlamov. It extended Stamkos’ points streak to 15 games.  And the other goal was just one of those deflections of the puck from a few feet out that leaves no time for a goaltender to react.

-- If Backstrom was important in the Lecavalier power play goal, then he was absolutely golden on another Lightning power play. With Tampa Bay holding the advantage on a 4-on-3, Backstrom broke his stick but still managed to place himself in harm’s way. Three times in a space of 20 seconds he took the brunt of shots by Kurtis Foster, who has a cannon of a shot. It earned Backstrom a standing ovation from the crowd when he returned to the bench.

-- Boyd Gordon and Nicklas Backstrom picked up the slack with the absence of Dave Steckel in the circle. They combined to go 22-up and 8-down in faceoffs. Gordon was 6-for-7 in the defensive zone.

-- And that goal by Eric Fehr spent about a nanosecond in the net before ricocheting out. He really leaned into one that sailed off Smith’s shoulder and into the far top corner.

It was a remarkably evenly played game, by the numbers. But the difference was in the Lightning’s inability to match the Caps at even strength (note to readers: our prognosto was for the Caps to beat the Lightning 5-2 at even strength, not 5-2 for the game… right?). It wasn’t pretty by any stretch, but playing ugly and still getting five goals has to be deemed an accomplishment. We’re just not sure what it was that was accomplished…

Oh yeah, another win to go up 14 points in the Eastern Conference.

Distant Early Deals

Deadline Day is the last day of shopping before teams have to move on with what they have. It isn’t the first day. Some deals – the biggest ones, in fact – were consummated before the Olympics. Marquee players such as Ilya Kovalchuk and Dion Phaneuf were moved weeks before Deadline Day.

But that isn’t really the start of it, either. And that has some special relevance to the Caps. The Caps were busy on Deadline Day, although you can’t say any single deal was for a big difference maker. The deals were incremental – some more grit, some better defense for the forwards, some relief for Mike Green, some depth. But before that, the Caps made two deals of considerable consequence for this year – the signings of Mike Knuble and Brendan Morrison. In light of those signings, you cannot say that the Caps have stood pat with respect to their roster.

Let’s compare the lineup that the Caps had in their last win of last season – the 5-4 overtime win over Pittsburgh in Game 6 of the Eastern semifinals – and a lineup that they could ice with their new acquisitions. First, the forwards…

The Caps clearly upgraded the first line, swapping out Viktor Kozlov for Mike Knuble. Knuble provides the net presence on offense that Kozlov was unable to provide and is probably a better defensive player to boot. Knuble already has 23 goals (ten more than Kozlov had in ten more games played last year) and has already passed Kozlov’s point total from last year (42 to 41). His style, characterized by playing more with his backside in the goalie’s face, has given Backstrom and Ovechkin more room to maneuver, and their improved offensive numbers reflect that. More importantly, his presence has given Backstrom more room to control the puck and allowed Ovechkin to avoid making the sort of high-risk plays, allowing those two to be highly ranked in the plus/minus scale. The first line is better defensively for Knuble’s presence by letting the others keep the puck out of the other team’s hands.  Next, the second line...

The second line still has issues with respect to the center. Sergei Fedorov was largely a shell of his former self last year, his series-winning goal against the Rangers in the first playoff round being more or less his last roar. Brendan Morrison was signed to fill that position when Fedorov returned to Russia. And while Morrison got off to a fine start, his play slumped as the games went by. The break might do wonders to rejuvenate him, and having him strong to complement the skill of Alexander Semin and the grit of Brooks Laich will be important entering the playoff part of the season.  Then, the third line...

The third line becomes more of a scoring line than perhaps was the case last year, but the addition of Eric Belanger makes it defensively responsible, too. Eric Fehr is a diligent forechecker and is an efficient (given his ice time) goal scorer. Fleischmann is a very capable offensive player, but has his struggles at the other end of the ice. Belanger provides enough of a two-way presence to help both of those players, should this be the way they line up. The Caps do not lose much, if anything, with Belanger on this line on draws, and he could be Steckel’s equal on defense. Fehr provides more offense than Clark, although Clark’s intangibles are hard to replace.  And last, the fourth line...

The fourth line marries the defensive responsibility of Steckel to the energy that Walker and Bradley provide (or, if need be, the added defensive skill of Boyd Gordon). This is not a line that will score much, but it could be better at making the lives of opposing players more difficult.  (edit: our apologies to Jason Chimera, who we left out of the original draft of this, who was brought in after the first deals and before the last.  He adds even more "bang and boom" -- physical play and some contributions on the offensive end -- that will make the Caps even harder to play against).  From here, to the defense...

On defense, the result of all the deals seems to be to move players to more comfortable levels of responsibility and effort. Mike Green and Jeff Schultz seem to be a good pairing in that Schultz has grown defensively and serves an adequate complement to Green. He can play the minutes, and he is as quietly effective a defender as there is in the league (the operative term there being “quietly”).

Joe Corvo and Shaone Morrisonn would be an echo of the first pair, only with fewer minutes at even strength. Morrisonn was the stay-at-home guy for Mike Green, and he could be that guy for Corvo, who at times resembles Green in style. Tom Poti could play anywhere from the first to the third pair and play in either an offensive or defensive mode. He is now the most versatile of the Caps’ defensemen, which is not necessarily something you might have said about him four or five seasons ago.  And finally, goaltending...

In goal, the Caps still have the uncertainty attached to Jose Theodore’s consistency and Semyon Varlamov’s health. Had the Caps made a deal here yesterday, we think it would have been with those problems in mind, not the talent of the respective goalies. When either of them are “on,” they can be spectacular. The question has been, and will be going forward, can the Caps reliably count on their being “on” (or even around) when it matters in the next few months.

Overall, the Caps have replaced players at five positions (six, including Chimera) from the group that took the ice in last year’s last win. That is a rather substantial overhaul among 18 skaters. In doing so, it has moved and will move other players to other spots with respect to responsibilities. We think is hard to make a case that the Caps are only treading water with the moves, let alone worse off. They are arguably better on the first line, more reliably consistent on the second (Morrison being healthier this year than Fedorov last). They are different on the third line and more versatile as a result. The fourth line will cause more of a commotion than what folks might have associated with the Caps.

The defense balances risk and reward a little more evenly, and the goalies are a year older (and, we hope, a year wiser).

It’s not just about Deadline Day. It’s also about the distant early deals that have threaded their way into the roster. If done well, you might think the players in those deals have been here forever. And with Mike Knuble and Brendan Morrison coming in the first of this year’s deals, that seems to be the case. The Caps, for all the deals they’ve made, are a better team right now and more “playoff ready” than they were when the season ended last year.

The Day After Christmas

Well, the smoke has cleared, the dust has settled, and another “Trading Day” is over. For the Caps, it was one of those days that might make a few fans do a facepalm.  We didn't get all the presents we might have wanted, but from this chair, it was a day of subtle reengineering that could be more important to getting a Stanley Cup that getting the flashy name. Why? It’s a matter of need…

Top-Six. It would have been a reach to think that the Caps would have made a play for any player who might fill the bill of “top-six forward.” The club is more or less set there with Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Knuble, Alexander Semin, Brendan Morrison, and Brooks Laich. Compare that to teams like Pittsburgh, who needed a scoring winger (Alexei Ponikarovsky) and New Jersey, who needed more punch at forward (Ilya Kovalchuk). The Caps didn’t have needs there. So, with that part of the team in good shape…

The Next Six. There are a few things that might have been accurate about the next six forwards that could have hampered their chances for success in a playoff scenario. First, they don’t get enough offense (or at least enough consistently) out of that group. David Steckel, Matt Bradley, and Boyd Gordon have a combined 16 goals this year in 153 man-games. Quintin Laing adds another two in 28 games. Eric Belanger brings 13 in 60 games from Minnesota. The Caps do not need much by way of offense in general, but what Belanger provides there is more of a threat from the undercard.

Second, there is the lingering idea that this group isn’t sturdy enough and is a little too “earnest” in their play. While Matt Bradley is certainly a guy who will stand up for his teammates, and Jason Chimera will have his moments, the threat of orneriness isn’t generally an attribute attached to this group. Scott Walker will provide that. As a group, the Caps are now better positioned to give compete more with New Jersey in a grinding game and to make like more difficult for skill forwards of the sort Ottawa and Pittsburgh employ.

Third, there is penalty killing, the soft underbelly of the Caps, especially on the road where they are 29th in the league. Washington is not a very good penalty killing team, although it hasn’t been for a lack of trying in terms of putting out a couple of forwards who can do the job. Ten Caps average at least 30 seconds of power play time a game; seven average more than a minute. Belanger will assume responsibilities here and should be an improvement (his being a good faceoff man doesn’t hurt, either, for defensive zone draws). To the extent he assumes a larger responsibility for this, guys like Nicklas Backstrom (1:03 in average SH ice time) and Tomas Fleischman (1:19 in average SH ice time) won’t. Those two will be fresher for the things they are better at. And, with a couple of veterans added, there shouldn’t be as much the intimidation factor on the road that might play a role in the woeful PK numbers the Caps have as visitors.

Defense. If the Caps could have sprung Dan Hamhuis out of Nashville, who we look at as sort of a “Rob Scuderi” sort of player in terms of being effective at the same time as being relatively unknown, we’d have done hand springs. As it is, the Caps traded one “puck mover” (Brian Pothier) for another (Joe Corvo). And, they sent prospect forward Oskar Osala to Carolina in the deal. In the short term, the evaluation can only be whether the Caps could be more successful with Pothier or with Corvo. Pothier is safer; Corvo is more “high-risk.” Pothier isn’t an especially physical defenseman, but then again, neither is Corvo (or at least, neither really fills the perceived need here). Pothier, who was signed to be something of a two-way defenseman on the heels of a 35-point season in Ottawa in 2006, never really filled that role with the Caps. Corvo, who has a 40-point season on his resume (with Los Angeles in 2006), had a 38-point season with Carolina last year but fell off to 12 points in 34 games, fighting injury along the way.

It seems to us that Corvo is here for one reason, and that is to provide Mike Green with some relief. Green is a minutes-eater (12th in the league total, but that is along with being 96th in SH ice time). Corvo should get some power play time to leave Green fresher to deal with the sort of abuse he endured last year in the playoffs and that no doubt he will face once more in the spring.

The addition of Milan Jurcina, who won’t be available for at least a month, is more a depth move. The 6/7 spot could have been John Erskine/Tyler Sloan. Now it is Erskine/Jurcina (or will be). Folks might clamor for either Karl Alzner or John Carlson to get their shot, and they might yet get that opportunity. Someday, Alzner and Carlson will be a cornerstone pair for the Caps. But at their respective points of their careers, Alzner and Carlson are not obviously better than Erskine and Jurcina in that 6/7 role for this team. That said, that sixth defenseman spot is going to remain a lingering problem.

Goaltending. Did the Caps make a play for Boston’s Tim Thomas? Was there interest expressed to Florida about Tomas Vokoun? We don’t know. Vokoun would have been an upgrade in talent, Thomas we’re not as sure about given his performance this season. Having not made a move at this position, the trouble for the Caps here is uncertainty. Jose Theodore is on a 13-game streak in which he hasn’t been beaten in regulation. But we’ve seen this sort of performance before, leaving the question of whether his performance is improving or if it is another high in a pattern of inconsistent performance. In early December, Semyon Varlamov was showing all the signs that he was going to take the number one job. Then he got hurt and has played in only one NHL game since (17 for the year). Michal Neuvirth has been generally good, but has had some problems with inconsistency on his way to a 9-4-0 mark. It would not be precisely correct to say that the Caps will offer up a “goaltender by committee” arrangement, but Theodore and Varlamov will be taking these last 20 (now 19) games to audition for opening night on Broadway, as it were – Game 1 of the opening round of the playoffs. A trade would have provided clarity as to who that goaltender would be, but now, for the moment, it isn’t clear who that is.

In the end, the Caps didn’t need to beef up their skill positions in the same way that New Jersey did or that Pittsburgh did. And, they resisted the temptation of making the splash to do so. The Caps targeted the weaker elements of their roster and performance…

Next Six forwards – improved for defense and penalty killing, should provide a little more offense in the process. Getting Belanger and Walker were plusses (probably more the former than the latter).

Defense – Allows the team to spread the responsibility around a bit more, especially on the power play. Corvo is high-risk/high-reward, but the clear benefit should be in leaving Mike Green fresher. Although, we’re more or less left crossing our fingers that Corvo leaves his big ol' bucket-o'-risk in the locker room. Having Jurcina is as better option than Tyler Sloan, but it isn’t the sort of thing that will make folks squeal in delight.

Goaltending – OK, boys… Jose, Semyon, Michal? Fight it out.

Overall, the Caps are in a better position to compete over the entire roster with the Devils, Penguins, and (if it comes to that) the Sharks or Blackhawks, and that was the object of the exercise, not to add the flashiest name.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Lightning, March 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We’re here with some comments on last night’s game and a preview of tonight’s contest, when the Caps…

“Getting’ lazy, huh, cuz?”

Well, well… seems the cousins are back from Vancouver. How’d you like the Olympics, guys?

“Spectacular! A feast for the fan of competition.”

“Yeah, and the women were good lookin’, too.”

“Quite a change for you… they all had all their teeth.”

“Yeah, even the lady hockey players.”

Guys, what competition did you like most? Fearless?

“Curling… sort of like chess on ice, except you only have 40-pound rocks, instead of rooks and knights and such.”

Cheerless, how about you?

“Biathlon.”

Huh?

“Oh, yeah… gimme any sport where you get to strap a couple o’ planks on yer feet, and you get to shoot guns… I’m there.”

So you were really excited about that one, eh?

“You bet. But I have an idea to make it even better.”

“Oh, this oughtta be good.”

“Sure, my idea is for a “TRI-athlon.”

A “triathlon?”

“Sure… you ski to a spot, chug a beer, take a shot… ski to a spot, chug a beer, take a shot.”

“Sounds like New Years at your place, cuz.”

“You’re just still mad ‘cuz you shot yerself in the foot last time.”

Guys? The game?

The Caps beat the Sabres last night, 3-1, in Buffalo in what could be an important game going forward. First, they beat Ryan Miller, no small feat. True, Miller is coming down off the high – and the disappointment – of leading the United States to a silver medal in hockey, losing in overtime to Team Canada for the gold, but Miller has been consistently superb and often brilliant all year. Last night he was in good form, just not quite good enough.

And a lot of not being quite good enough was a product of who was playing at the other end of the ice. Jose Theodore turned aside 23 of 24 shots to win and put his record at 11-0-2 in his last 13 appearances.

Then there is this. The Caps are the top scoring team in the league, but the flip side of that coin is that they have not been successful in low scoring contests this year. Going into last night’s game they were 8-11-5 in games where they scored three or fewer goals. Gutting out a 3-1 win is what folks in Caps Nation are going to want to see as the calendar moves toward the playoff phase of the season.

In a related vein, it was encouraging to see the Caps put the clamps on the Sabres in terms of both shots and goals allowed. The Caps had not held an opponent to a single goal since defeating Boston, 4-1, on February 2nd. But perhaps just as important, the 24 shots allowed was the lowest number since they allowed 19 to the Kings in Los Angeles on January 2nd. Having the time off to rest and to reacquaint themselves with their systems in practice bore fruit last night.

But the chore now is to put two of these together, and the Caps get their chance to do that tonight against the Lightning, when the boys return to Verizon Center ice. Tampa Bay comes into this game in a bit of disarray. After starting the month of February on a promising note – four straight wins, only five goals allowed – they lost their last three going into the Olympic break by a combined score of 15-10. Then, on Tuesday, they were pasted by the Flyers in their first game back after the break, 7-2.

Both of the goalies seem to be on a rough stretch. Antero Niittimaki, who took the loss on Tuesday, is 0-2-0 in his last three appearances, 6.92, .824. Mike Smith, who would appear to be the victim…uh, goalie for tonight’s game, has fared better statistically (barely), with a 3.42 GAA in his last five appearances and a .847 save percentage. He is 0-3-0 in those five appearances. Neither have played especially well against the Caps this year. Niittymaki has the only win for the Lightning this year, but gave up two goals in 33 minutes of work in getting it. It is his only appearance against the Caps this year. Smith is 0-2-0, 3.29, .896 in three appearances so far this year.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Tampa Bay: Steven Stamkos

Stamkos is the one Lightning player who has been on fire, even in the midst of the four game losing streak. In those four games he is 4-5-9. He is also 3-2-5 in three games againt the Caps so far this year. That’s a lethal mix.

Washington: David Steckel

Yes, Caps fans know the drill. Steckel is a Tampa Bay terror – 6-5-11 in 13 games coming into this year. But he doesn’t have a point against the Lightning in three games this year. The key for Steckel is that he is 0-2-2 in his last 14 games since scoring his last goal, which came against Detroit on January 19th. It would be nice to get a little more pop out of him.

Keys:

1. Getting to know you, getting to know all about you. Tonight the Caps are likely to greet their new troops – Eric Belanger, Scott Walker, and Joe Corvo (Milan Jurcina is out for at least a month with a sports hernia). Integrating that many players into the lineup without the benefit of at least a full practice could be a chore. Hope these guys can learn on the fly. But hey, it’s hockey, right?... right?

2. PK be OK. The last two times time these teams met the Lighting were a combined 5-for-9 on the power play. It can’t be said that the Caps penalty killers had an epiphany as a result, either. Since the Lightning went 4-for-7 in a 7-4 win on January 12th, the Caps have skated off 64 of 80 shorthanded situations – 80.0 percent. That needs to improve.

3. Second 20. Washington has the second highest total of goals scored in the second period of any team this season. Tampa has allowed the fourth most goals in that frame. Look for the Caps to pull away by the 40-minute mark.

In the end, it’s a story of two different teams – one tuning themselves for the playoffs, the other fighting for their playoff lives (Tampa is two points out of eighth place). That’s a product of one team being that much better at both ends of the ice. Tonight, it will be a case of showing who belongs where in the Eastern Conference pecking order…

Caps 5 – Lightning 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is BACK ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Sabres, March 3rd

Tonight the Caps line up to begin its own version of a short track speed skating sprint to the finish – 20 games left, an 11-point lead on the rest of the conference. But before that, all eyes of hockey fans will be glued to their iPhone, iPad, iWishThey’dStopWithThe-iStuff screens in anticipation of the last hours of the trading window for this season. Who will our favorite teams pick up? Which rentals are out there for a bargain price? Speaking of rentals and short-timers, we here in DC are familiar with the breed, and we asked three such players of recent vintage to share with us their wisdom on the care and feeding of the player who might not be here very long…

Drew Gooden, you were traded to the Wizards on February 13th, and then you were sent along to the Los Angeles Clippers four days later. And it’s not as if you’re a stranger to such things – the Clippers are your ninth team in eight years. What advice might you have for any player the Caps might pick up for the last three months of the season?

“Three words – ‘short-term-lease.’”

Ah, I see.

“Oh, and you really don’t want to get a Costco membership, unless you want to be hauling the 36-pack of toilet paper from city to city.”

Paul Lo Duca, you spent seven months here in DC after you were signed as a free agent. So, you’re not technically a rental, but you sure have experience in not spending much time here. Any advice for the players the Caps might pick up today?

“No, but tell me, is Bowden still there?”

No, he was relieved of his duties with the Nats last year.

“Damn… I was kinda hoping he’d sign me again.”

Curtis Leschyshyn… you came to the Caps from Colorado on November 9, 1996. Then you were shipped out to Hartford a week later. You played in two games for the Caps. Two games. Two penalty minutes. Two goals were scored while you were on the ice, on for and one against. Any advice?

“I was in Washington?”

Tonight, as we wait on the last day of the trading deadline to see if the Caps are in the rental market, the Caps return home to host the Buffalo Sabres. As the teams take NHL ice once more, here is how their numbers (prior to last night's action) shake out..

It is likely to be the first game back in a Sabres jersey for the MVP of the Olympic men’s ice hockey tournament, Ryan Miller. In the Olympic tournament Miller finished tied for first in wins (five), second in goals against (1.35), first in save percentage (.946), and second in minutes played (355:07). Those rankings are entirely consistent with what he put together in the NHL before the break: seventh in wins, second in goals against, second in save percentage, and eighth in minutes played.

The trick now is to avoid two things: a post-Olympic letdown and fatigue. As we noted in our look at the big questions concerning each team, the minutes he added in the Olympics would push him almost to the minutes he played last year (he is ten minutes short of that mark). We also noted that the additional work he would get in the home stretch…

“…could push his total minutes – NHL regular season and Olympics – past his career high of 4,474 two seasons ago, and that season did not end especially well for him: 7-7-3 in his last 17 games with a 3.34 GAA and .877 save percentage.”

For our purposes tonight, though, Miller has been less lucky than good concerning his performance against the Caps this year. Despite his having a 2.35 goals against, a .935 save percentage, and one shutout, he has a 1-2-0 record against Washington this season.

Part of the reason Miller’s record against Washington looks inconsistent with his statistics is that the Sabres have scored only five goals in three games against Washington themselves, and they were shutout once. It is a problem that isn’t limited to Buffalo’s games against the Caps. This is a club that has one 50-point player, no 20-goal scorers, and since smacking Phoenix 7-2 on January 18th has averaged only 2.43 goals a game over the last 14 games.

Over that span the Sabres have shown their characteristic scoring balance – 16 players share the 34 goals the team scored. But 11 of them came from the sticks of Derek Roy (six) and Thomas Vanek (five). Buffalo isn’t getting a lot of strong secondary support. No other player has more than three goals in that span.

Roy bears watching. He doesn’t have a goal in three games against the Caps this season, but he does have three assists that brings his career scoring to 9-10-19 in 21 games against Washington. But here is something else Caps fans might look for. Roy, who averages a little more than half a minute of penalty time per game against the other 28 teams in the league, has 18 minutes in infractions in 21 career games against the Caps.

Vanek is still trying to find the spark on a consistent basis that propelled him to 43 goals in 2006-2007 (and a huge contract offer from Edmonton as a restricted free agent thereafter, which the Sabres matched). He has 18 goals in 56 games this year to lead the club, which is probably what the Sabres were thinking would be the case, just not with such a low total. He has been held without a point in two games against the Caps this year and is 6-5-11 in 18 career games against the Caps.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo: Jason Pominville

The right winger had a two goal, three-point night against Phoenix on January 18th, but since then is 3-8-11 in 14 games. The helpers represent a solid number, but the Sabres could use some more punch from him to help relieve the burden on Miller at the other end of the ice. In three games this year against the Caps he has three assists, but no goals. He does seem to have had a knack for being clutch against the Caps in his career though, even if his numbers (5-8-13 in 18 games) don’t jump off the page.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

After having a difficult final week in Vancouver, Ovechkin now takes the ice in front of fans who had little use for him before the Olympics. His reception is not going to be warm. But Ovechkin does have 13 goals in 18 career games against the Sabres, including two in three games so far this year.

Keys…

1. Fast start. The Caps lead the league in first period goals (72), but getting off to fast starts has been lacking in recent games leading up to the break. Buffalo is not an especially adept team playing from behind (18th in winning percentage when scored on first, 15th when trailing after the first period). Get out in front, take the crowd out of it, and don’t let the Sabres put the game in Miller’s hands.

2. Irresistable force, meet immovable object. This game could well be decided by the Caps power play against the Sabres’ penalty killers. The Caps have the third-best road power play in the league; Buffalo has the best home penalty killing. In 22 games so far in 2010, the Caps have scored at least on power play goal in 18. On the other side, in 22 games so far in 2010, the Sabres have shutout opponents on the power play 15 times.

3. The Letter “D.” In the February portion of the schedule, the Caps allowed 28 goals in seven games. It doesn’t take anyone especially well versed in the fine points of hockey to figure out that 4.0 goals allowed per game isn’t good, even if you did go 4-1-2 in those games. It isn’t a recipe for success, and against a team that doesn’t have a lot of pop, allowing four goals would suggest that there are some serious bad habits creeping into the Caps’ game, time off or no time off.

In the end, the Caps are better and more rested in the key positions – their Olympians ended their participation about week ago, while Ryan Miller – on whose performance the Sabres’ season depends – was playing Sunday afternoon. Getting off to a good start will stick a pin in the balloon that is the hopes of New Jersey, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and even Buffalo of catching the Caps for the top spot in the east. And a good start begins now…

Caps 3 – Sabres 2

Mike, you're a dope

Tony Kornheiser has a word that he uses for effect. He overemphasizes its pronunciation to drive the point home that the object of his scorn is a…

DOPE.

Well, today’s object of dope-itude happens to work with Kornheiser in another venue. Let’s go to the chat transcript from Michael Wilbon’s chat at the Washington Post today and this exchange…

Chicago: Wait, [Alex] Ovechkin is "out of control" because he is . . . unhappy with losing? When Tiger or Jordan or your other favorites are unhappy with losing, that's a good thing, according to you.


Michael Wilbon: did you ever see Michael Jordan push a person's camera in her face. Don't suggest, because you'll clearly do anything to excuse Ovechkin and anything he does, that other great athletes shove cameras out of people's hands. The reports from Vancouver are that the woman suffered bruises. You show me when Jordan or Tiger did that. It's also interesting to me, and you might be included in this though you might not, that white athletes are never held to the same standard of behavior as black athletes. Had Carmelo Anthony or LeBron James done this is would be painted as "those thug basketball players." Where's the intolerance over Ovechkin's behavior? Where are the columns screaming for him being discipllined? What kind of garbage is that? There is video of it, too. What, is it okay for a white player to shove a fan with a camera? Don't make up garbage and attribute it to a player like Jordan, who was never involved with shoving anybody. Ovechkin, according to other players in the NHL, deals out cheap shots. His own coach, if you remember the stories and stop making up accusations about others, said his star was being out of control. I'll take his word for it, though there will be plenty like you, I'm afraid, who'll try to brush this off as nothing, instead of wondering whether the Capitals star needs to be reigned in...

This was a follow-up to an exchange earlier in the chat in which he made the statement that “Ovechkin… is bordering on out of control,” a reference to Ovechkin’s Olympic experience, which was unpleasant, to say the least.

Wilbon is talking about being “out of control?” First, he gives Michael Jordan and Tiger Woods the same pass he accused the questioner of giving Ovechkin (to be fair, it was the questioner from Chicago who brought up Jordan and Woods). Yeah, you would be hard pressed to find evidence of Woods pushing a camera in anyone’s face, but he doesn’t have to – he has a caddy who has a reputation for taking care of that sort of dirty work. And as for Jordan, Wilbon has next to no credibility on the subject. There are the religious among us whose devotion pales in the light of Wilbon’s devotion to all things Jordan.

But that was all just a warm up. He veered off into a thinly veiled charge of racism with respect to the manner in which the behavior of a number of NBA players is characterized. “You might be included in this though you might not?” Gee, Mike, thanks for that drive-by shooting of a reader for challenging your wisdom.

Then he turns his aim on Ovechkin with the hazy “according to other players” sort of charge that conveniently makes a point without actually having to be accountable for naming names. A reader without knowledge of the sport might conclude that there are players lining up to tell their tales of Ovechkin’ dirty play. There are, in fact a number of players who hold this view, and even one rather famous hockey commentator (although his beef seems to be Ovechkin not standing up and taking his medicine on the ice for his indiscretions).

Then he careens into a reference to a statement by Ovechkin’s coach. As Wilbon put it, “his own coach, if you remember the stories and stop making up accusations about others, said his star was being out of control.” Here is what Coach Bruce Boudreau actually said about Ovechkin on December 1st in a press conference after that morning’s practice…

Q: Does he need to change the way he plays?


A: He's pretty reckless. It's hard telling a guy that scores 60 goals a year to change the way he plays. At the same time, I don't want to see him getting hurt. Maybe he has to pick his spots a little better… you're lining guys up a lot of times and going to hit them, and once they move, everything gets exposed. Human nature is to react; if you've got a bead on them, if you're a hockey player, is to continue to try to hit him. It's something that has to be addressed by us, I guess.

Boudreau seems to be talking about a player who needs to regulate his game, which is quite apart from being “out of control,” and also seems concerned more with the potential for injury. Wilbon appears to have ignored that context and chose rather to pick up the narrative that attached itself to Ovechkin in the aftermath of a knee-to-knee hit on Carolina’s Tim Gleason, for which he was suspended -- "Ovechkin’s a dirty player." That sounds more like the sort of thing you would read on a Penguin message board or hear on a call-in radio show.

Ovechkin had a bad week. That’s the charitable view of it, absolutely. The churlish behavior he is charged to have exhibited toward the media seems out of character, but to the extent it was true it did him, his team, and his reputation no favors (although we are starting to wonder, is “Media Entitlement in the New Millennium” a required course for journalism students these days?). His brief exchange with a fan and a camera is disturbing, but the most damning part of the story isn’t the story as much as it is some blurry video. Still, it can’t be excused or dismissed out of hand because the player in question is a star. But is this evidence of a player who is “out of control?” Is he held to a different standard than athletes of other races?

To the former, his image took it on the chin in Vancouver this week. The negative press stemming from his non-availability to English-speaking press was relentless (and, it seems, deserved to a point). As to the latter, that was just a rather pathetic instance of playing a card that really had no place in the conversation and that was just gratuitous bashing of a person asking a question.

I’ve heard Wilbon on radio in a number of instances this year talk about how his other commitments have prevented him from following hockey. But while we find it amazing that a journalist who professes to have grown up with the sport and likes it takes such pride in announcing he has no time for it, we can understand the competition for time a working journalist has to deal with in covering a multitude of sports, writing columns, and appearing on a daily television show. For that, Wilbon deserves the benefit of the doubt.

But Mike, if that’s your attitude, and if you’re going to exhibit such a superficial knowledge of what took place (his commentary sounds almost like he read a couple of wire stories and connected the dots), then save your rant. It makes you sound poorly informed and, to borrow your phrase, “out of control.”

More than that, it makes you sound like a DOPE. You might rather ponder this description of Ovechkin…

"Ovechkin is a beast. He explodes, like a tornado. Ovechkin is scary. His shot is scary. There's an aggression about him, a barely controlled fury that Crosby, great as he is, doesn't have. Nobody else has it … He's the fastest, toughest guy with the biggest shot, the fewest teeth. Every great player wants to win. Ovechkin wants to beat you down."

Who wrote that? You did. May 6, 2009.  Look it up.

The End -- Winners and Losers

Gone - flitted away,

Taken the stars from the night and the sun
From the day!
Gone, and a cloud in my heart.

~Alfred Tennyson

Tennyson’s quote might apply to the end of a star-studded, excitement-enducing, memory-making two weeks in the annals of Olympic hockey. Or it might apply to the victory that Team USA appeared ready to snatch from the jaws of defeat in the gold medal game, only to have the gold medal that surely would be draped around their necks stolen in the blink of an eye by the one player it seemed that everyone outside of Canada did not want scoring the tournament-winning goal.

The gold medal game was everything a hockey fan could want, capping a second week of inspired – and disappointing in some respects – hockey of the sort that the stretch run of the NHL’s regular season will find hard to top. As in Week 1, there are winners and losers…

Winner: Sidney Crosby

90 percent of life is timing, and Crosby certainly has that. On the other hand, as the Roman philosopher Seneca wrote, “Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.” And Crosby is nothing if not prepared for what opportunities present themselves. Call that – getting the tournament winning goal – “lucky,” if you so choose. He had a quiet Olympics, if you can call 3-3-6 in six games quiet. But he was there in overtime of the gold medal game, doing what he was coached to do since he was knee-high to a gnat. He went to the net. He took a feed from Jarome Iginla and after getting inside position on USA defenseman Brian Rafalski (a sequence that took maybe two seconds) he snapped the puck behind Ryan Miller and sent 35 million Canadians into ecstasy. If Alex Ovechkin was the winner of the first week and added to his legend, Crosby was the winner in the tournament’s second week and added to his legend.

Which do you think counts for more?

Loser: Alex Ovechkin

The second week of the tournament was perhaps the worst week of his professional career on several levels. Week 1 ended in thunderous fashion – a crushing open ice check on Jaromir Jagr that directly led to a goal at the other end that propelled the Russians to a 4-2 win over Czech Republic. But it would be the last highlight moment for Ovechkin, whose Team Russia earned a bye into the playoff quarterfinals. There, the Russians met Canada, earlier in the tournament than anyone might have thought would happen. And there, just as his Capitals did last year against a Sidney Crosby-led Pittsburgh Penguins team, his Team Russia laid an egg on the Canada Hockey Place ice, falling behind early and going quietly in a 7-3 loss to the eventual goal medal winners.

It is colossally unfair to say that Crosby won and Ovechkin lost, at least if you adhere to the notion that hockey is a sport that depends so much on teamwork and depth. Truth be told, Canada had both, and the Russians had neither. The NHL and KHL players of Team Russia looked as if they were skating in different time zones, and the Russians were outed as a team that had real performance issues on the lower half of the forward lines, on defense, and in goal. Ovechkin, strong as he is, was not able to drag 17 other skaters and a goaltender into a more concerted effort. But life isn’t fair, and if Crosby – now a Stanley Cup and Olympic gold medal winner – is the winner of the second week and the tournament, then fate decrees that Ovechkin – now a part of two early exits in his last two tournaments – be the loser, made worse by what was characterized (fairly or not) as surly attitudes toward the media and a confrontation with a fan with a camera. That’s life.

Winner: Team USA

In an odd sort of way, Team USA wins the week for losing. Nothing could compare to the utterly shocking win of Team USA in the “Miracle on Ice” in 1980, and if the Americans had won the day on Sunday, it would have been a source of pride for Americans, certainly. But it would always be seen as an inferior result to the Miracle boys. In losing as they did in such heartbreaking fashion to arguably the most talented assemblage of hockey talent in the history of the sport, the Americans fought back from a two-goal deficit, took the superior Canadians to overtime, and ultimately lost because the best player left in the tournament finally showed up.

The romanticism of losing gloriously aside, there is a practical side to this. The Americans were a very young team, at least by the standards of Olympic hockey that include NHL personnel. This is a team that can reasonably be reconstituted in large part in four years, and it will be a powerhouse. And if there is a winner-within-a-winner here, it is Brian Burke, who assembled a “team” rather than a mere collection of star players. He had a mission and a purpose in mind, and darn near pulled it off.

Loser: Team Russia

More for the management of the franchise than for the players themselves, although there were less-than-expected performances there, too. As the tournament wore on, it became apparent – and Team Canada laid bare – that the Russians were a fiction. Scrape away the patina of talent that players such as Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin, Ilya Kovalchuk bring to bear, and the Russians were a collection of players that might not have been the best the country had to offer. And on top of that one might add some truly head-scratching coaching on the part of Vyacheslav Bykov, and it was a case of poor management that doomed the Russians. It was like learning after the fact that design flaws incorporated into the building of the Titanic doomed it to sinking when it was finally struck by an iceberg.

Winner: Roberto Luongo

Replacing a legend on the biggest stage on the planet can’t be easy, especially when you are doing it in your home country in a city where you earn your living. That was the burden Roberto Luongo had to bear in replacing Martin Brodeur for Team Canada in Vancouver. But Luongo bore the burden well, not by being spectacular, but by being reliable. You could say that giving up a goal in the last half minute of the gold medal game was his stepping into the fitting room for goats horns, but he was solid in the overtime. In the end, he was the man playing the most important position on the ice in a winner-take-all game who thrust his arms skyward in victory. More than any player on the ice for Team Canada, including Sidney Crosby, Luongo was a winner.

Loser: Henrik Lundqvist

How bitter must it be, having not allowed a goal on 41 shots in Week 1, earning a bye into the playoff quarterfinals, allowing four goals on 14 shots and losing to a Slovakian team that Team Sweden should have beaten going away to go to the semifinals and a date with the Canadians. It was the game-changer, so to speak, of the tournament. And perhaps the most reliable single member of Team Sweden’s roster had one of the worst games of his career.

Winner: Team Slovakia

The Slovaks were the surprise of the tournament, beating the Russians, the Swedes, and throwing a mighty scare into the Canadians in coming back from 3-0 down to get within a goal before losing, 3-2. Pavol Demitra had a tournament to dream for: 3-7-10 in seven games. But there also were Marian Gaborik with four goals to lead Team Slovakia, Marian Hossa getting nine points for the tournament, and Richard Zednik and Michal Handzus getting six points apiece. Jaroslav Halak stood tall in goal, giving his teammates the confidence to play aggressively at the other end.

Loser: Team Slovakia

It was a last hurrah in all likelihood for several members of this team. Four years hence, the Slovaks are likely to have to replace Demitra, Handzus, Zednik, Miroslav Satan, and others. This could be the high-water mark for some time for the Slovaks.

Winner: Washington Capitals fans

If by “winner,” you mean being selfish as a Caps fan and getting all five Olympians home ahead of time (ok, Ovechkin stuck around) to get a head start on the resumption of the NHL season.

Loser: Hockey fans

Because it’s over. But in six weeks, we have the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Winner: Canada

We have to claim a bias here. We just like the relative simplicity and intimacy of the Winter Games much more than the Summer Games. And for the impressive technical achievement that was the opening and closing ceremonies of the Summer Games in China in 2008, we liked the folksy quirkiness of these Games so much more. The self-effacing barbs cast by the likes of William Shatner, Catherine O’Hara, and Michael J. Fox at all things Canadian give voice to the sort of decency and good humor that makes one think that “nice” is not a four-letter word. And Canada, even from a few thousand miles away, it looked like you put on one helluva party.

Loser:

OK, there are none, despite what you might have read up to here. These are the best athletes on the face of the earth, whether they won a medal or not. And even if they perform feats than we can never dream to achieve, they do so in such a way that allow us to have those dreams.

Questions, Questions... Part 6

And now we come to the last segment in looking at the big questions facing each team. It’s the Pacific Division to round things out...

San Jose: Can they change the reel up in the film room?

Let’s face it, there are no questions about San Jose’s talent. They are skilled, deep, balanced. They are a 120-point or so club on paper, and they are likely to get there or close to it by the end of the regular season. And it doesn’t mean a thing. For as hockey fans know, we’ve seen this movie before. Team assembles talent, scores a ton of goals, gets a ton of assists from Joe Thornton, slices their way through the West like a shark through a group of seals in shallow water.

Then… splat. Guys can’t find the back of the net, Thornton disappears, goalies are as sturdy as tissue paper, they look like extras in "Finding Nemo."

Including this season, the Sharks have won at least 40 games in eight of nine seasons and topped 100 points four times (this season will make five unless the team is spirited away by aliens). And for all that regular season success they have a total of six playoff series wins in eight seasons, reaching the conference final (and losing) only once and being eliminated in the first round twice.

Some folks might think that the addition of Dany Heatley this season will give one last shove of a spine up the Shark’s backs to get them to the promised land of a Stanley Cup. That is entirely possible, but there is the lingering specter of Joe Thornton and his playoff problems – 41 playoff games with San Jose, 6-29-35, and a minus-2, and three playoff series wins (not more than one in any season) in his four years with the Sharks coming into this season.

If the Sharks can’t find another movie to entertain their fans, none of their gaudy records or statistics in the regular season will matter.

Phoenix: Are they running out of gas?

Phoenix is one of the surprise teams this year. Given up for dead (or the movers) at the start of the season, they have put together a 37-21-5 record so far. It is a team that plays a structured game that emphasizes minimizing opponents’ chances (tied for ninth fewest shots allowed per game) and taking advantage of what opportunities are presented to it.

But that kind of game is played on a thin margin. 31 of Phoenix’ 63 games were one-goal affairs heading into the Olympic break, and the ‘Yotes were 21-5-5 in those games – the most one-goal wins in the league so far this season.

Phoenix had a five-game winning streak straddling the end of January and the beginning of February, but since then has lost three of five games. And what emerged over those ten games was a shrinking offensive production. In their last seven games the Coyotes have scored only 11 goals, and six of those came in a win over the woeful Oilers. Three times were the Coyotes shut out through regulation and overtime. That’s a team that needed a break.

But now the question is whether they can keep walking on the good side of that fine line that is one-goal games. Were the last five games a blip, or a warning of things to come?

Los Angeles: What do you get when you sum all the parts?

Because if you look at the individual parts… the Kings have one scorer in the top 60. They have one goal scorer in the top 40. They are ranked higher than tenth in only one major team statistic (goals scored per game). But… the Kings have eight players with at least 30 points (as many as top scoring Washington). They are top 15 in goals allowed per game, 5-on-5 play, and power play.

And perhaps most important, the Kings have been playing the “slow and sure wins the race” sort of game this season – 8-4-2 in October, 7-6-0- in November, 8-5-1 in December, 10-4-0 in January, and 4-1-1 in February. When play resumes they will have three more games against Dallas (against which they are 3-0-0 this year) and three other games against Pacific Division foes (the Kings are tied with San Jose for the most in-division wins in the Pacific). They are 14-5-1 in the 2010 portion of the season, outscoring their opponents 60-46 along the way (3.0-2.3).

This is a club that for most of the season has been playing as more than the sum of its parts and was in the midst of playing some of its best hockey of the year leading up to the Olympic break. For them, the chore is to make sure that the break is not a momentum killer.

Dallas: Can Marty find his game… in Dallas?

There was a lot of rumor spreading around that goaltender Marty Turco was going to be moved at the trading deadline. Well, with Alex Auld having been picked up by the Rangers on waivers and recently added Kari Lehtonen being, well, Kari Lehtonen, Turco is the only reliable goalie around for a club that is tied with Detroit for ninth place in the West, one point behind the struggling Calgary Flames.

Turco has not had a “Turco-esque” sort of season in that his goals against average, if the season ended today, would be the second highest of his career (last year’s was worse). But his save percentage of .915 is better than any season since he stopped 93.1 percent of the shots he faced in going 31-10-10 in 2002-2003.

What’s more, he seems to have perhaps shaken off the cobwebs that seemed to plague his game earlier in the year. He is 5-2-1 in his last eight decisions, 1.74, .952, and two shutouts.

Of no small amount of concern to Dallas fans, though, is that Turco had weak finishes in each of the last two seasons – 1-6-2 to finish up last year and 3-8-2 to wrap up the 2007-2008 season. If there is one thing to suggest that he might not suffer a similar fate this year is that he has appeared in only 43 games so far, putting him on a pace for 58 appearances, the fewest appearances he would have had since he had 55 in the 2002-2003 season (55). He should be fresher.  Turco seems likely now to get a heavier workload down the stretch, and he’ll need to shoulder it well if the Stars are to have any chance of overtaking Calgary and holding off Detroit and the teams on their rear bumper to gain a playoff spot.

Anaheim: Psst… can we just tell Hiller it’s still the Olympics?

Jonas Hiller had a fine fortnight in Vancouver for Team Switzerland with a 2.47 goals against average and a .918 save percentage, despite going 1-3 for the tournament. It was a bit surprising that he came up so large in that he stumbled into the Olympic break a bit with the Ducks: 3-2-0, 3.23, .908 (six of the 16 goals he allowed were in a single game, a 6-4 loss to Los Angeles on February 4th).

Overall he has had a solid year, but certainly not a spectacular one. He is ranked 26th in goals against average (2.70) and 13th in save percentage (.919). One problem he has is one not of his making. He is facing more than 33 shots per 60 minutes of play. As a team Anaheim allows the third highest shots-per-game total in the league. 42 times Hiller has played a full 60 minutes (allowing for being pulled for an extra attacker or going to the bench for a penalty about to be called). Only nine times has he faced fewer than 30 shots.

With as much difficulty as newly arrived backup Vesa Toskala had in Toronto, it seems iffy that he would get a lot of appearances down the stretch with the Ducks only two points behind eighth-place Calgary. But with 46 appearances Hiller is about to step into uncharted territory – that number of appearances ties the career high he set last year. He did finish strong last year, though. After March 1st he was 9-3-0 in 14 appearances, 2.52, .917, and one shutout. The Ducks are going to need that kind of stretch run performance this time around to get the Ducks into the top eight.

Questions, Questions... Part 5

Four down and two to go in our look at the big question concerning each team down the stretch of the NHL season. Next, the Northwest Division.

Vancouver: Is this how Bob Hope and Bing Crosby did it?

Bob Hope and Bing Crosby made seven pictures together in their careers commonly referred to as the “road pictures.” The pair, teamed with Dorothy Lamour, would take the road to such exotic locales as Singapore, Zanzibar, Rio de Janiero, or Hong Kong. Well, the Vancouver Canucks are in the midst of taking their own road production to such locales as Columbus, Nashville, and Phoenix, a product of having to get General Motors (excuse us, “Canada Hockey”) Place ready for and broken down from the Winter Olympic games.


Vancouver has already spent eight straight games away from home, going 4-4-0. Coming out of the break they still have six road dates to complete before returning home on March 13th. It will be a telling six game road trip for several reasons. First, the Canucks will play two sets of three games in four days. Maybe they’re rested, maybe they’re rusty. Second, all of the games are against Western conference teams. This could have seeding implications for the Canucks down the road as they are currently in third by virtue of their leading the Northwest Division, but only tied for sixth in points in the conference (they hold the tie-breaker – more wins – over the team with which they are tied, division foe Colorado). Third, Vancouver is the only club in the top-eight in the conference with a sub-.500 road record (14-15-1). If they can get past this stretch of games in fair shape, they have 10 of their last 15 games at home. If, on the other hand, they stumble along the road, they could tumble rather quickly through the floor of playoff eligibility; they have an eight-point lead over ninth-place Dallas and Detroit (all three with 21 games remaining).

Vancouver seems a pretty safe bet at this point to make the playoffs, but this six-game road trip to start the home stretch will go a long way toward determining where they will start those playoffs – in the friendly confines of General Motors Place or on what has been the less than forgiving road.

Colorado: Can the Avs be more than Craig Anderson?

Goalie Craig Anderson has received a lot of praise this year for the season he is having. It is well deserved – tied for fifth in wins (31), 13th in goals-against average (2.42), seventh in save percentage (.924), tied for third in shutouts (six). Only twice this year has he lost consecutive games in regulation (a two-game streak on October 30/November 1 and a three-game streak in late January).

But while the surprising Avalanche, largely due to Anderson, have the ninth-best goals-against mark in the league, what might be getting lost is that they also have the ninth-best offense in the league. And they have done it largely by going young. The top three goal scorers are all 24 or younger – rookie Matt Duchene (19), Chris Stewart (22), and Wojtek Wolski (24). As a matter of fact, of the seven players for Colorado with at least ten goals, only Milan Hejduk (34) is older than 25.

Colorado has been reasonably consistent over the past few months – 8-5-1 in December, 7-5-0 in January, and 5-2-0 in February. If they can maintain that consistency, they will finish comfortably in the top-eight (they have an eight-point lead over ninth place Dallas and Detroit). If they can improve upon it, they can move past Vancouver, with whom they are tied at 76 points, into the three-seed in the West.

The question is not so much whether Anderson can keep up his pace. In two years as Tomas Vokoun’s backup in Florida before this year he had a combined record of 23-13-6, 2.54, .924, with five shutouts. The question will be whether the young guys can continue to keep up Colorado’s scoring pace over the season’s last 21 games.

Calgary: Will fried Kipper taste good in April?

Miikka Kiprusoff has played the third most minutes in the NHL this season. He was tops last year with more than 4,400 minutes. He was fourth the previous year with a few ticks under 4,400 minutes. He was third the year before that. Since the lockout Kiprusoff averaged 4,404 minutes a season. And this year, he played more than 250 minutes in backstopping Team Finland to a bronze medal in the Vancouver Olympics. Now, here is another set of numbers, Kiprusoff’s record in his last 15 decisions of the regular season since the lockout: 9-3-3, 8-6-1, 7-7-1, 6-9-0. See a pattern there?

Calgary is hanging on for dear life to a playoff spot. They stand in eighth place in the West, one point ahead of Dallas and Detroit, two points ahead of Anaheim, four ahead of St. Louis, and five ahead of Minnesota. That means that Kiprusoff isn’t likely to get much – if any – of a break down the stretch (he appeared in Calgary’s last 13 games heading into the Olympic break). Given that the Flames scored only 44 goals in the 22 games since January 1st, there will only be more pressure on Kiprusoff to hold the fort.

Minnesota: Can the Wild climb out of the hole they keep digging for themselves?

The Wild dug themselves a hole right out of the start this season. In their first dozen games the Wild were 3-9-0. The Wild dragged themselves out of that hole by going 17-7-3 in their next 27 games. Since then, though, Minnesota is 10-11-1.

These last 21 games has been a roller coaster ride for the Wild – a four-game losing streak, a four-game winning streak, then another four-game losing streak and a three-game winning streak. They keep digging holes, and then climb almost out of them, only to find themselves digging again.  It is the theme of their season.

Part of Minnesota’s problem, and one of the things that makes their performance look more and more like a roller-coaster ride (and not in a good way) is that they do fine in one-goal games (19-11-4), but in games decided by two or more goals, they are 11-16. That points to a certain defensive problem, and in fact the Wild have allowed at least four goals in nine of their last 21 games (they are 1-8 in those games).

Coincidentally, the Wild have scored at least four goals in nine of their last 21 games and are 8-1 in those games. This is a club that just cannot put together a consistent mix of offense and defense over any stretch of games. And until they do, they will spend their time digging and climbing, digging and climbing.

Edmonton: Can we get this over with?

Last in points, tied for last in wins, 29th in scoring, last in defense, last in 5-on-5 play, 29th in penalty-killing. Since a five-game winning streak to open December, the Oilers are 4-23-2. Their goaltender has run afoul of the law. The only thing Edmonton fans have to look forward to is the possibility of seeing Jaromir Jagr in an Oiler jersey next season. And as a Caps fan, we’re here to tell you, “good luck with that.”

Questions, Questions... Part 4

Done with our big question for each team in the East, we head west and the Central Division…

Chicago: Can Huet do-it, or is Niemi dreamy?

No team in the NHL has a lower goals-per-game average than the Chicago Blackhawks (2.31). But in that number lies another – 24.4. That would be the number of shots that Chicago goaltenders face per game, also the lowest in the league. If you put them together, then the performance of their goaltenders – Cristobal Huet and Antti Niemi – looks rather pedestrian, a combined .905 save percentage.

Drill further… Huet has never won a playoff series (he is 6-10 over three playoff series with three different clubs), and Niemi hasn’t yet appeared in an NHL playoff game.

We are getting into uncharted territory for Huet. With his next appearance he will top his career high in regular season appearances in a season, which currently rests at 42 (with Montreal in 2006-2007 in addition to this year). He has been a bit shaky of late, too – 2-2-1, 2.83, .881 in seven appearances heading into the Olympic break. Niemi, on the other hand, has been hot… or lucky. He is 8-2-0 in his last ten appearances, but with a 2.60 goals against average and a .897 save percentage. In his last three appearances he has allowed 11 goals on 82 shots (.866) but has won them all.

As good as Chicago has been this year – currently holding the third highest point total in the NHL – this pair of goaltenders is likely to be quite sufficient to get the Blackhawks to the playoffs with the first or second seed (they hold a nine-point advantage over third-place Vancouver and trail top-ranked San Jose by two points). But is this the pair that will take them home?

Nashville: Is average good enough?

Out of the 30 teams in the NHL, Nashville is 16th in scoring, 17th in defense, 12th in 5-on-5 play, 13th in shots on goal, 12th in standings points overall, they are 9-9-2 in the 2010 portion of the season. They’re standing in the town square of Averageville. It is a club that boasts – if that is the term – one 20-goal scorer (Patric Hornqvist). The Predators do not have a player with as many as 40 points. Both goalies have goals-against number that are north of 2.5 goals per game.

You wonder how this team is ten games over .500. But there they are, seventh in the Western Conference at the moment, but only seven points ahead of 13th place Minnesota. Their hold on that playoff spot is not the tightest.

Where Nashville is not average, though, is in special teams. And this might be the fault line on which the club’s success down the stretch might ultimately rest. The Predators have struggled on the power play this year – they are tied for 24th in the league at 16.7 percent. And it’s not as if they’re getting a lot of chances to improve on their success (tied for 22nd in total power play opportunities). They have, however, given hints of improvement. In the six games leading up to the Olympic break Nashville was 8-for-29 on the power play (27.6 percent).

While their power play has struggled, but shows some recent signs of life, the penalty killing has been a more troubling problem. The good news is that here, like the power play, they face fewer chances than most teams – tied for fourth fewest penalty killing situations in the league. But killing off only 76 percent of them – tied for third worst in the league – could be the club’s biggest problem down the stretch. In those same six games leading up to the Olympic break the Predators killed off only 20 of 28 shorthanded situations (71.4 percent) and allowed at least one power play goal in each of the games. If they don’t right themselves on both sides of the special teams equation, they could find themselves on the outside looking in, in the competitive West.

Detroit: Will the Gimmick be their downfall?

Folks keep waiting for a Detroit run. Well, the Red Wings haven’t won consecutive games since winning at San Jose and at Los Angeles in early January. They haven’t won more than two consecutive games since mid-December. Still, with all that the Red Wings sit in a tie for ninth place in the Western Conference, one point behind eighth-place Calgary.

But if there is one thing that could haunt Detroit in the off season, it is this – in their last 15 games the Red Wings have gone to a shootout six times. They lost five of them. Had they split those six games, instead of going 1-5, they would be a point ahead of Calgary rather than a point behind. They would be ahead of Dallas, instead of tied with them (one of the losses coming to the Stars). No team has lost more games in extra time this year than the Red Wings (perhaps ironically, they are tied with the team with which they are tied in the standings – Dallas).

Having played 18 of their 61 games into extra time, they could have another six or seven at that pace down the stretch. If they don’t find a way to win more of those games, things are tight enough in the west where it could be the difference between games or golf in April.

St. Louis: Will it be Chris Mason or… Chris Mason?

How is this for streaky… lose five, win four, lose three, go 2-1, lose two, win three. That is Chris Mason’s last 20 games in goal for the Blues since Christmas. Overall in that span he is 9-7-4, 2.47, .911, and two shutouts. Fair numbers, but there is the problem of that streakiness.

If streakiness can be a good thing, then Blues fans might take a look at Mason’s record from last year. He finished up the regular season 9-1-1 in his last 11 games, with a 2.08 GAA and .924 save percentage with two shutouts. Then again, there was his finish two years ago with Nashville… Starting on Valentine’s Day he was 1-5-2 in his last 11 appearances (he had three no-decisions in relief of Dan Ellis and lost three other games in which he started but did not finish), 3.80, .862.

St. Louis is four points out of a playoff spot. Which Chris Mason shows up will likely be the biggest factor in whether the Blues can make up that difference, hop over the four teams ahead of them, and find their way into the playoffs.

Columbus: Can we get a do-over?

Off of their first-ever playoff appearance last year, as well as being an over-.500 club as late as December 14th this season, Columbus finding itself three games under .500 and in 14th place in the West has to qualify as a huge disappointment. December was hardly the stuff of happy holidays for the Blue Jackets, as they went 2-9-5 for the month, including a nine-game losing streak (0-7-2). What killed them was an utter lack – absence, in fact – of offense. They scored only 29 goals in 16 games for the month (1.81/game) – only 15 in the last 11 games of the month – and their only two wins came via shutout, one of those in overtime.

Even if they stopped the bleeding since (10-10-1 in the 2010 portion of the season), the December fall killed their chances for the rest of the winter. There will be no spring on the ice for Columbus, even if they are only nine points out of a playoff spot. Having to climb over six teams is too much to overcome, and for the Blue Jackets, it’s “wait ‘til next year.”

Bear Hunting in Winter

Ever go to a military air show and see the sleek fighter aircraft going through their motions? The breathtaking mix of speed and power?

Well, that was the Hershey Bears last night as the home team strafed the Bridgeport Sound Tigers, 9-2, in front of a sellout crowd that included Capitals’ coach Bruce Boudreau, who was on hand for a book signing of “Gabby: Confessions of a Hockey Lifer.” It was Washington Capitals Night at Giant Center, and it looked as if the Bears were doing their best to show the big club that there are guys down on the farm who merit a good long look at the big club. In that sense, it was a somewhat odd game, given the score…

-- Despite nine goals, only seven players shared in the scoring. The Keith Aucoin - Alexandre Giroux - Andrew Gordon line went 4-7-11, plus-6 for the evening, but that only got them second best among the forward lines.

-- Mathieu Perreault – Chris Bourque – Steve Pinizzotto went 5-7-12, plus-12 (that’s not a misprint), Perreault netting four goals for the evening, including a successful penalty shot.

-- The Bears put withering pressure on Bridgeport from the drop of the puck. Perreault scored the first of his four goals 1:44 in, the Bears scored all nine goals in the game’s first 37 minutes, and Hershey put 50 shots on goaltenders Nathan Lawson and Scott Munroe.

-- It was almost sad to see the misfortune of Brendan Witt for Bridgeport. A former first round/11th overall draft pick of the Caps, he seems to be at the end now. He was a minus-4 for the evening and looked incapable of keeping up with the speedy Bears.

-- For all of the offense unleashed on Bridgeport, the Bears were “only” 1-for-5 on the power play, and the crowd seemed a bit perturbed early at the Bears’ difficulty in scoring on the man advantage, especially when the Tigers managed to net a shorthanded goal 15 seconds into the Bears’ first power play of the evening.

-- That was a franchise record for goals allowed by Bridgeport. And it could have been a lot worse if not for some fine netminding by Scott Munroe in the third – he turned away all 19 shots from the Bears in the period.

-- Braden Holtby shook off a bumpy stretch with a pretty solid effort. He had been 1-3-0 in his last five appearances (one no-decision), 3.77, .876. Tonight, 22 saves on 24 shots.

-- Tyler Sloan and Quintin Laing were in the lineup for the Bears on assignment from the Caps.  Sloan had an assist and was a plus-3; Laing was held off the scoresheet and was minus-1.

Nights like this make one wonder whether there is any team in the AHL who can defeat the Bears in a seven-game series down the road. It’s a club that is difficult to defeat when they’re on the road (19-9-0) and almost impossible to defeat at home. They score (4.32 goals/game), keep their own net clean (2.42 goals against/game). And right now they are at the top of their game -- 21 home wins in a row (26-3-2 overall)… more than half a home season’s worth of games. They’ve averaged almost six goals a game in doing it (5.90) – five times scoring at least eight goals – and shut down opponents (2.14 goals against/game). Amazing.