The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 13: Capitals vs. Stars, November 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Big D comes to D.C. to try and take a W out of VC. That’s right, Caps fans…the Dallas Stars come to town for their only visit of the 2011-2012 season to Verizon Center, looking keep the Caps from leap-frogging them to the top spot in the league’s winning percentage rankings. The Stars are currently on top with a .769 points percentage to the Caps’ .750. Here is how the teams stack up so far in the young season…

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Even though the Stars come to town on a three-game winning streak, they might be ripe for the taking. In their first nine games they allowed more than two goals only once. But in their last four they have allowed three or more twice, including a 5-3 loss to Los Angeles and a 7-6 overtime win over Colorado. It’s a team that has shown some cracks in that sturdy defensive façade, and as we’ve seen with the Caps from time to time, the signal of a winning streak coming to an end usually comes a few games before that streak ends.

1. Loui Eriksson was named the league’s second star for last week, and he is hardly a fluke. The 26-year old winger has improved his point totals in each of his five previous seasons, setting a personal best of 73 points last season. He is on a 50-goal, 94-point pace at the moment and is riding a four game points streak (3-5-8). He is 1-2-3, even, in four career games against the Caps.

2. Beware on the power play. The Stars are tied for the league lead in shorthanded goals (three). One of those shorthanded goals comes from a familiar face…at least a face familiar to Hershey Bear fans. Defenseman Sheldon Souray, who skated in 40 regular season and six playoff games for the Bears last season after being banished from Edmonton, potted a shorthanded goal against New Jersey on October 29th. Souray has gotten off to a flying start – 4-8-12, plus-10, in 13 games so far. He comes into this game on a three-game streak of two-point games, and he has three goals in his last five games. In 29 career games against the Caps he is 5-12-17, minus-1.

3. When Ken Hitchcock was patrolling behind the Stars’ bench, Dallas was known as a suffocating team on defense, his teams more often than not holding teams to fewer than 25 shots on goal a game. The stinginess continued when Dave Tippett took over as head coach of the Stars. It became something that defined Dallas’ style of play. So far this season the Stars rank 29th in shots against. Only Nashville has allowed more than the 33.2 shots per game allowed by the Stars. It makes the performance of goaltender Kari Lehtonen rather remarkable. 10-1-0, 2.14, .936 in 11 games while facing an average of 33.5 shots per 60 minutes. But the heavy workload might be wearing on Lehtonen. In his last four games he is 3-1-0, but with a 3.20 goals against average and a .902 save percentage. He is 10-6-2, 2.80, .919, with one shutout in his career against the Caps.

4. Chances are this will not be a blowout for either team. In 13 games so far the Stars have one win of three or more goals and one loss by the same margin. Only two teams – Minnesota and Edmonton – have fewer decisions by three or more goals.

5. This could turn on special teams in this respect. Only three teams have allowed more than the 11 4-on-5 goals Dallas has allowed. While Dallas has a fairly efficient penalty kill (83.3 percent), only Ottawa has faced more shorthanded situations (66 in 13 games).

1. A win tonight will tie the Caps with the 1991-1992 team as the fastest to ten wins. That 1991-1992 team beat Toronto, 4-0, to go to 10-3-0.

2. Nicklas Backstrom is 5-13-18, plus-2 through 12 games. In 2009-2010, when he finished the season with a career best 33-68-101, he was 3-13-16, plus-6 through his first 12 games.

3. The Caps are currently 6-1-0 when allowing the first goal, 3-2-0 when they score first.

4. Roman Hamrlik has 154 goals in his career. Only one of them has come against Dallas in 38 career games played against the Stars.

5. No team has more three-or-more goal wins so far this season than do the Caps (four). Only three teams have more one-goal wins than the five that the Caps have…Dallas happens to be one of them (six).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Dallas: Jamie Benn

Jamie Benn has progressed nicely as a budding power forward for the Stars. He posted 22-goal seasons in each of his first two seasons, and he is currently tied for the team lead in points (4-11-15). Benn has no points in two career games against the Caps, but he has seen a number of the Caps before. Benn was the leading scorer for Dallas’ affiliate in the AHL – the Texas Stars – in the 2010 Calder Cup playoffs. But he ran into a stone wall when his Stars faced Hershey in the Calder Cup final. He had only one assist in six games as Hershey won the championship in six games. There might be some scores to settle.

Washington: Troy Brouwer

Troy Brouwer has five goals and ten points in 12 regular season games against Dallas. He does not have more goals or more points against any other team in the league over his career. He has goal in two of his last three games and points in three of his last four (2-2-4).

Keys:

1. Force the action. Between the Stars giving up a lot of shots, taking a lot of penalties (second highest number of minors in the league), and Lehtonen slipping of late (assuming he gets the call), the Caps can take advantage of a high-tempo sort of game.

2. Get busy early. Washington is fourth in the league in first period goals scored, while only one team (Edmonton) has allowed fewer first period goals than the six allowed by the Stars. If the Caps can solve the Stars early, it could spell trouble for the visitors, who have allowed more than twice as many goals in the third period (14) as in the first (six). And the Caps are third in the league in third period goals scored.

3. Beware the blue line. Sheldon Souray has those four goals and 12 points for Dallas, but as a group the top four defensemen for the Stars have nine goals and 26 points (compare that to eight goals and 27 points for the Caps’ top four). Five of those goals have come on the power play.

In the end, this is the start of a rough patch for Dallas – at Washington, at Pittsburgh, and at Detroit (the latter two being back to back). It will be a test of Dallas’ discipline to avoid looking at this week as one big tough piece, to take the games one at a time and avoid looking ahead. The Caps were embarrassed a bit in their last game – a loss to an Islander team that scored five goals for the first time in four weeks. That should provide some measure of motivation to bring their “A” game against a formidable opponent.

Caps 4 – Stars 2

Looking Forward -- Update

Seems as though that early Avalanche of wins for Colorado has slowed to a flurry of frustration, what with their going 4-5-1 in their last ten games.  It makes for a slightly less grumpy GMGM on the Colorado Lottery Pick Meter...

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That Was The Week That Was -- Week 4 (October 30 - November 5)

If there was a theme for this three-game week, it was “The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly.” It could have been worse, and it should have been a lot better. What it was, was…well, let’s get to it.

Record for the week: 2-1-0

After returning from a fruitless two-game road trip to the Canadian west, the Caps returned home for a game against Anaheim. They were promptly smacked in the mouth, allowing the Ducks get off to a 3-0 lead 29 minutes into the game. The Caps clawed back into the contest, outscoring the Ducks, 4-1, over the remainder of regulation time to send the game into overtime. It was there that Nicklas Backstrom snatched victory from the jaws of defeat for a 5-4 win.

The Caps looked better, especially over the last 40 minutes, in stomping Carolina by a 5-1 margin in Raleigh on Friday. But the good luck deserted them, or more precisely a focused effort in the latter stages of games disappeared, when the New York Islanders beat the Caps in regulation for the first time since mastodons walked the earth, 5-3, with a three-goal third period.

It was a better win-loss week than the games looked, and it left the Caps atop the Southeast Division, but only in third place in the Eastern Conference. The Caps do, however, have two games in hand on second-place Toronto and three-games on first-place Pittsburgh, and is tied with Dallas – their next opponent – as tops in the league in standings points earned per game.

Offense: 4.33/game (season: 3.92/game, rank: 2nd)

The Caps bumped their goals-per-game average up a couple of tenths on a 13-goal week and yet dropped into second place (Philadelphia scored 15 in three games – nine against Columbus – to edge ahead of the Caps). Nicklas Backstrom led the Caps with a 3-3-6, plus-2 week. Backstrom extended his run of two-point games to four and his total of two-point games to eight. Alex Ovechkin and Brooks Laich each finished the week with a goal and three assists.

The odd part of the week was that the Caps won both games in which the fell behind and lost the one game in which they scored first. Stranger still is the fact that the Caps won both games in which they allowed goals and were shut out in the first period, yet lost the game in which they scored first – two goals in the first period – and shutout their opponent in the opening frame.

What that might indicate is that this is a team whose focus wanders too much. The prospect of losing after falling behind seemed to inspire them to refocus, while they stopped skating and lost their way after putting the Islanders behind the eight-ball with a pair in the first period on Saturday.

Defense: 3.33 goals/game (season: 2.75, rank: T-19th)

Let’s face it. This was a bad week for the Caps on defense. Allowing ten goals in three games to teams currently ranked 30th (Anaheim), 19th (Carolina) and 29th (the Islanders) should be cause for some concern. What is worse is that the Caps allowed nine of those goals to the 29th and 30th ranked teams.

Goaltending played a part (certainly against the Islanders), but the Caps looked lost in the first half of their game against the Ducks. On balance, this was probably a week that fell more on the goaltenders (or, as we will see, “goaltender”) than on the defense.

In three games the Caps allowed only 75 shots on goal. An average of 25.0 shots per game would rank them first in the league in shots allowed. Even the 142 shot attempts permitted was not especially high (the Caps managed 196 attempts of their own, 100 of them on goal). Consider that the Caps allowed 70 attempts in their 7-4 loss at Vancouver, and this week seems stingy by comparison. It was an uneven week, though, as a result of poor play in front of their goaltender in the Anaheim game, allowing Saku Koivu and Teemu Selanne (twice) to get what amounted to uncontested shots at the net for goals.

Goaltending: 2.98/.878

The “good” for the week was Michal Neuvirth allowing only one goal on 25 shots in the 5-1 win over Carolina. Neuvirth stopped the last 21 shots he faced in that one. The “bad” would be the start to the Anaheim game on Tuesday in which Tomas Vokoun allowed two goals on six shots in the first period (not that he got a lot of help from the defense). But he wasn’t exactly sharp thereafter, stopping only seven of nine shots over the last two periods. The “ugly” was the last two period against the Islanders. Vokoun allowed four goals on the last 22 shots he faced in the 5-3 loss.

It made for a rough week for Vokoun – 1-1-0, 3.96, .834. It should give pause to those who might think that Vokoun merely had a bad game. In his last four appearances he is 1-2-0, 3.89, .847. And the odd part of it is that Vokoun has seen so little rubber, comparatively speaking. In those four appearances he has seen an average of 25.4 shots per 60 minutes.

Power Play: 2-for-9, 22.2 percent (season: 25.0%, rank: 3rd)

“Efficiency” and “effectiveness” are not the same thing. The Caps were “efficient” on the power play – a 22.2 percent conversion rate testifies to that. However, getting only nine chances in three games points to a lack of effectiveness in getting opportunities. Only 12:20 in power play time for the week did not put enough pressure on defenses to upset their rhythm or force them to expend more effort that might affect their 5-on-5 effectiveness.

Even the shots were a bit deceptive. Scoring three goals on 13 power play shots for the week (15.4 percent shooting) is not bad, but getting only 4.33 shots per game and scoring on their only power play shot against the Islanders make that number look better than it is. The Caps high-powered offense might be more so if they were ranked higher than a tie for 20th in total power play opportunities.

Penalty Killing: 6-for-7/85.7 percent (season: 78.6%, 23rd)

It was a pretty good week for the penalty killers. First, having to kill off only seven chances in three games is what one is looking for if a team is struggling with penalty killing efficiency. The Caps came into the week ranked in the bottom third in the league, so keeping the chances to a minimum worked out fine. That they killed off all but one might be signaling an improvement in that area. Allowing only 12 shots on the seven shorthanded situations (a .917 shorthanded save percentage) was a nice touch, too.

Paying the Price: 49 hits/44 blocked shots (season rank: T-21st/T-21st)

The blocked shots number did not improve much on the previous week on a per game basis, but that might have been a product of teams not getting a large number of shot attempts. That they were outhit in the three games, 71-49, suggests that the Caps were a bit more passive this week.

If there was news in this category this week it pertained to the Alexes. Alexander Semin registered his first blocked shot of the season in the 5-1 win over Carolina. As for Alex Ovechkin, he had but one hit recorded on his score sheet for the week, which might be a career weekly low. His 18 hits for the season is currently ranked in a tie for 103rd in the league in hits among forwards, tied with such notables as Nathan Gerbe and Andrei Kostitsyn. It is worth noting, though, that he has one more than Jarome Iginla, who isn’t generally considered soft. As for team leaders for the week, they would be Troy Brouwer (seven hits) and John Carlson (a positively Volchenkovish nine blocked shots in three games).

Faceoffs: 80-for-164/48.8 percent (season: 48.1 percent, rank: T-23rd)

It was another losing week in the circle, but there was progress, if you can call breaking even in each of the last two games “progress.” The Caps were grim in the offensive end, winning only 17 of 47 offensive zone draws for the week. If there was anything noteworthy here this week, it was that Marcus Johansson, who came into the week winning fewer than 40 percent of his draws, was 17-for-33 for the week (51.5 percent). By the time we turned the clocks back on Saturday night the Caps found themselves ranked in a tie for 23rd in faceoffs. Only two other teams in the top-eight of their respective conferences (Edmonton and Philadelphia) were ranked lower.

Turnovers: plus-4

It was an uneven week for the Caps in this area. They were poor against Anaheim (minus-7), very good against Carolina (plus-11), and middle-of-the-road against the Islanders (even). The Caps still have an excellent takeaway to giveaway ratio (1.38:1, fifth best in the league). Alexander Semin had seven of the 35 takeaways the Caps recorded this past week.

Impressions:

It could have been worse. The Caps were almost run out of their own building on Tuesday, but they came back to grab two points out of that mess. It should have been better. Giving up a two-goal lead to a team as offensively challenged as the Islanders was a product of lost focus and laziness. That is one of those “bad habits” that the regular season serves to help eliminate. Overall the Caps were entirely too lackadaisical on defense and had uncharacteristically shaky goaltending from Tomas Vokoun. In these respects the Caps still have work to do.

Three Stars of the Week:

1st Star: Nicklas Backstrom (3-3-6, plus-2, 47.9 percent on faceoffs)
2nd Star: Michal Neuvirth (1-0-0, 24 saves on 25 shots)
3rd Star: John Erskine (0-1-1, plus-1, five hits, on ice for only one goal against in almost 48 minutes of ice time)

A NO-point night -- Game 12: Islanders 5 - Capitals 3

OK, Caps fans…you don’t need us telling you that tonight was bad…bad, bad, bad. Giving up five goals is not something a team should do under normal circumstances. But to do it against a team that scored a total of five goals in their last 271 minutes and change of hockey?

That’s what happened to the Capitals tonight as they blew a two-goal lead and lost to the New York Islanders, 5-3, at Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum. It looked like just another night and just another win for the Caps early on when they got goals early (from Joel Ward at 5:24) and late (from Alex Ovechkin at 18:41) in the first period to take a 2-0 lead at the first intermission.

But in the second period, the Caps were let down by the unlikeliest of players. The Islanders scored early (from Franz Nielsen at 1:41) and late (from Brian Rolston at 16:55) in the second on shots that Caps goalie Tomas Vokoun would normally gobble up like a bag of potato chips. Having skated the night before, allowing the Islanders to tie the game before the second intermission put the Caps in the difficult position of trying to win a third period of hockey after already skating 100 minutes in about 24 hours.

It made getting that third goal important, and it was the Islanders who got it. Matt Martin put the Islanders ahead 6:28 into the third. Brooks Laich would get it back and re-tie the game with a power play goal a little less than three minutes after the Martin tally. But P.A. Parenteau put the Isles ahead one last time with 1:46 left with a diving poke-in of a puck that slithered through Vokoun’s pads after Milan Jurcina took the original shot. John Tavares added an empty-netter, and the two-game winning streak for the Caps and the six-game losing streak for the Isles were over.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps came into this game with an 11-0-3 record against the Islanders in their last 14 meetings. The Caps had not lost to the Islanders in regulation since dropping a 5-2 decision on October 18, 2007. They had not lost in regulation on Long Island since dropping another 5-2 decision on March 10, 2007. That makes this the first time Bruce Boudreau lost to the Islanders in regulation time in his tenure as Caps head coach.

-- From the “this is disturbing” file… the Caps have now allowed four or more goals in three of their last four games, losing two and getting one of the wins in overtime in a game they had no business winning (the November 1st game against Anaheim, won in overtime by a 5-4 score).

-- This was the first time this season the Caps allowed an opponent fewer than five power play opportunities and lost the game. The Islanders were 0-for-2 with the man advantage.

-- On the other side, the Caps technically had three power plays  There was a five minute power play that became two when the Caps took an intervening penalty. On the third...one shot, one goal. A nifty roof job from the middle of the left wing circle by Brooks Laich.

-- Coming into this game the Caps were ranked second in the league at 5-on-5. The Isles were 30th. New York outscored the Caps 4-2 at 5-on-5 (5-2, if you count the empty netter). Go figure.

-- With two third period goals allowed tonight, that’s six third period goals in the last four games allowed by the Caps. Not what you want to see from a team trying to shut things down and lock things up.

-- Josh Bailey was on the ice for the Islanders’ third goal. It was the first time the Islanders scored this season with Bailey on the ice.

-- Dennis Wideman had his plus-minus halved tonight, from plus-8 to plus-4. He was on the ice for the last four Islander goals.

-- When is zero an odd number? When it refers to the number of hits credited to Alex Ovechkin. He is on a pace to record about half as many hits (123) as he had last season (241). One hopes the result will be less wear and tear on his body.

-- Another odd number?...20. This was the first time in four games that Tomas Vokoun faced more than 20 shots on goal. He stopped 17 of 19 in a loss to Edmonton and 11 of 15 in a win over Anaheim. He stopped 14 of 17 in only 20 minutes in a 7-4 loss to Vancouver. Over these last four games Vokoun is 1-2-1, 3.89, .847. He wasn’t good tonight, but in point of fact he’s been in something of a slump for a little while now.

-- Alexander Semin is now 0-for-16 shooting over his last seven-plus games, going back to his goal against Florida at 1:49 of the third period in a 3-0 win.

-- The third line had two of the Caps’ three goals tonight, but not as the third line. Brooks Laich scored on a power play with Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, and Alexander Semin the forwards (Laich played the left point); Joel Ward scored with Jason Chimera and Jeff Halpern on his line.

-- An indirect indicator of the effects of playing a second game in two nights…the Islanders only had 20 of 55 shot attempts not get through (14 blocked, six misses). The Caps weren’t getting in the Islanders’ way quickly enough.

-- Deuces are certainly wild for Nicklas Backstrom. With two assists, he posted his fourth straight two-point game and made it his eighth two-point game of the season. He has been held off the score sheet only twice in 12 games.

In the end, this game does not, by itself, mean a great deal. Games like this will happen a few times – even to the best of teams – a few times a year. But it is part of a larger piece, that the Caps are not playing all that well in spite of their record. In the five games since the 7-1 win over Detroit, consider…

…They have allowed 19 goals (3.80/game)
…They have allowed 19 goals on 137 shots (a .861 save percentage for the goalies)
…They are 3-for-17 on the power play (17.7 percent), which isn’t bad, except…
… They have allowed five power play goals in 20 chances (75 percent PK), so they’re minus-2 on special teams.

They are and have been leaky over the last two weeks from the goaltender out. And that is something that isn’t just what happened to Tomas Vokoun tonight. It’s been going on for a while now. And it needs to stop.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 12: Capitals at Islanders, November 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Caps finish up another two-game mini-trip with the second half of a back-to-back set of games, this one against the New York Islanders in the ancient confines of the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, a building that seems to have been imported concrete block by concrete block from the school of Soviet architecture, circa 1962.

Its days as “Fort Neverlose” a relic of the dim past, the Coliseum is now home to a team that has not finished above .500 in the last five years, hasn’t appeared in the playoffs since 2007, and hasn’t won a playoff series since 1993. Since winning their fourth Stanley Cup in 1983, the Isles are 881-1025 with an additional 194 ties and 76 overtime losses.

This edition of the Islanders got off to a nice start, winning three of their first four games with excellent goaltending from Al Montoya and Evgeni Nabokov. The nice start masked some serious problems, though, most notably that they couldn’t find the opponent’s net with a map, a flashlight, and a blinking neon sign over it saying “SHOOT THE PUCK HERE.” The Isles have lost their last six games (0-4-2), have not scored more than two goals in any of those games, and have been shut out twice in their last four games.

On top of all that, a proposal to replace the Nassau Coliseum was rejected by Nassau County voters in August, introducing a murkiness with respect to their future on Long Island. For what they have endured over the past quarter century, Islander fans need not be pitied – they have the memories of those four Stanley Cups – but they certainly deserve respect for sticking with a team that seems intent on making the hockey “experience” as gruesome as possible. Here is how the two teams stack up heading into this game…

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1. John Tavares has seven goals; the rest of the team has 11. The Isles have only four players with more than two even strength goals, and Tavares is the only one with as many as three. The trouble is Tavares had five goals in his first four games, only two in six games since. The Islanders have a total of 11 even strength goals in ten games, only two in their last five games. By way of comparison, the Caps have 31 even strength goals. No Islander team in 39 seasons has scored fewer goals through ten games than this one. No team this season has been shut out more often.

2. If nothing else, the Islanders are disciplined. They are averaging only 9.9 minutes of penalty minutes per game (ranked sixth) and have taken only 40 minor penalties (ranked fourth).

3. The Islanders rank dead last in the league in hits (they rank dead last in a number of things, it seems) with 189, and Matt Martin has 49 of them. Think that’s a lot? Well, yeah, when you consider that the Caps’ biggest hitter so far – Troy Brouwer, a player known for that aspect of the game – has 43. The flip side of that is that the other 19 skaters to have taken the ice for the Islanders so far this season have a total of 140 hits (about seven per player).

4. It hardly seems to matter for the Islanders whether they put up a lot of shots or struggle to get shots on goal. In five games they recorded more than 30 shots and in those games scored a total of 11 goals (nine of them coming in two of those games). In three games they were held to fewer than 20 shots on goal and scored a total of five goals. They have been outscored 19-7 on their current 0-4-2 run.

5. Josh Bailey is one of the young Islanders (22 years old) considered to have promise with this team. In his first three years he averaged 11 goals and 29 points. Not bad for a youngster on a team trying to get its footing with a lot of young players. But here is a shocking number concerning Bailey – zero. He has been on ice for 138 minutes so far this season and has not been on ice for any goal scored by the Islanders.

1. The Caps have 17 different goal scorers, most in the NHL so far. But they have no player with more than five, which speaks to the balance through the roster as far as goal-scoring.

2. Last season the Caps had a troubling tendency to fall behind in games, allowing the first goal in 47 of 82 games. They are up to their old hijinks. Seven times in 11 games the Caps allowed the first goal, posting a record of 6-1-0 in those games. They come into this game having allowed the first goal in their last three games.

3. Something to watch for…if the fourth line for the Caps is Jeff Halpern, Matt Hendricks, and Mike Knuble, that trio is a combined 20-27-47 over their respective careers against the Islanders spanning 101 man games. And Halpern and Knuble account for 19 of the goals in 96 career games. Not bad for a “fourth line.”

4. Only two teams have scored more third period goals than have the Caps so far (17), and those teams – Ottawa and Philadelphia – have played more games (14 and 13, respectively, compared to the Caps’ 11).

5. All or nothing. The Caps have nine wins so far this season, and they have been either nail-biters or blowouts. Five one-goal wins, four wins of three or more goals. No team has as many three-plus goal wins.


The Peerless’ Player to Ponder

New York: Kyle Okposo

Another Islander with the shocking number of “zero” – goals, that is. Kyle Okposo has skated more than 161 minutes in ten games and has yet to record a goal. He missed 44 games last year after shoulder surgery, and he clearly is not yet right. He finished last season with five goals in 38 games and has that goose egg so far this season. He hasn’t had a goal in his last 18 games and has one in his last 27. The injury serves as a bright line for Okposo in this respect. In 154 career games before the injury he scored 39 goals and averaged 2.79 shots per game. Since the injury he has five goals in 48 games and averaged 1.92 shots per game (2.00 per game so far this season). If he is going to break out, it could be against the Caps. He has five goals in eight career games against Washington.

Washington: Jason Chimera

Jason Chimera doesn’t have the highest career scoring total among Capitals against this team, but he does have five goals in 12 career games against the Islanders. Chimera started fast with four goals in his first five games, but the red light has remained dark for him over his last six games (he does have three assists in his last four games). There is a Jekyll and Hyde character to his game so far. At home he is 4-2-6, plus-7 in six games. On the road he is 0-1-1, minus-1 in five games.

Keys:

1. It’s not first to “one.” The Islanders have played teams close in the first 20 minutes, scoring first in five of ten games and outscoring teams 9-8 in the first period. But in the last 40 minutes of games the Islanders have scored a total of nine goals. The Caps have scored 30 goals in the last 40 minutes of games. In this six-game losing streak the Islanders have one third period goal. The Caps have allowed only 16 goals in the last 40 minutes of their 11 games so far.

2. Don’t be stupid. Only twice in ten games have the Islanders had the pleasure of five or more power plays. Only one team has had fewer power play chances. It probably isn’t a coincidence that the Islanders have had a lack of chances (and, by extension, lack of production) on the power play and find themselves in 14th place spot in the East. Stay out of the box.

3. Watch the undercard. For the Islanders at the moment, the “undercard” is pretty much anyone not named “Tavares.” John Tavares has had a hand in 11 of the 18 goals the Islanders have scored, meaning that the other 17 skaters, whoever they might be, have displayed little offensive threat. That makes it important that the Caps clamp down even harder on that group. Tavares might get a point or two, but he can’t beat the Caps by himself.

In the end, not even the fact that this is the second of a road-road, back-to-back set of games provides an excuse for the Caps dropping a decision to the Islanders. The Caps – 11-0-3 in their last 14 games against the Islanders dating back to December 2007 – are facing a team not playing well on offense, and its defense and goaltending (allowing three or more goals in five of the last six games) has not been enough to stem the tide of losing. The Caps made their life a bit easier by putting the Friday night game against Carolina away early in the third period, allowing them to distribute ice time more evenly and keep players fresh. That should be more than enough to add a seventh straight loss to the Islanders’ current streak.

Caps 5 – Islanders 2

A TWO-point night -- Game 11: Capitals 5 - Hurricanes 1

The Washington Capitals spotted the Carolina Hurricanes a first period goal, then roared back in the final 40 minutes with five of the own to beat the host team, 5-1, on Friday. A game that started in shaky fashion – Carolina scored just 3:26 into the game – ended with the Caps having their best 11-game start ever at 9-2-0.

Stuff, stuff, and more stuff…

-- Jeff Halpern, John Carlson, and Cody Eakin each scored their first goals of the season. That makes 17 Caps with goals, the most goal-scorers on any team in the league at the moment.

-- When Carolina scored on their fourth shot of the game at 3:26 of the first period, it looked as if the Caps might sleep walk their way through this one. But Michal Neuvirth slammed the door, turning away the last 21 shots he faced. But give the Caps some credit for waking up and denying Carolina good chances in front of Neuvirth.

-- The Caps did get off lucky in one respect. Jeff Skinner knocked in a loose puck in the second period that would have tied the game, but it was waved off. It was a case of the referee being on the other side of the ice from the puck, which was laying just outside the goal line to Neuvirth’s left. It was a call the referee had to make, having lost sight of the puck and thinking Neuvirth had it smothered. But it was the wrong call. It was a loose puck, and Skinner should have had a goal, even if he whacked it in an instant after the whistle sounded. It happens.

-- As much as what the Caps did, it was what the Hurricanes didn’t do. For example, you probably didn’t want to be Jamie McBain after this game. The Carolina defenseman was on the ice for four of the Caps’ five goals, and he had a close-up look at every one of them. He was late covering Jeff Halpern on the first one, managing only to hook Halpern’s ankle as the Caps forward was batting in a rebound. He was beaten by Marcus Johansson along the boards before Johansson flipped a saucer pass to Troy Brouwer for the second goal. He was the only defender back on a 2-on-1, not really deciding which Cap to defend, when Cody Eakin popped in his first NHL goal. And it was he that Nicklas Backstrom snuck behind to collect an Alex Ovechkin pass to notch the last goal of the evening. It was a brutal game for McBain.

-- Then there was Eric Staal. It was another in a series of rough games for the eldest Staal brother. He was on ice for the tying and winning goals, giving him a minus-2 and making him minus-14 in 13 games (that’s a minus-88 pace, Bill Mikkelson fans). He had one shot on goal, one shot attempt, and little else in almost 21 minutes. At least he was .500 on draws (9-for-18).

-- But as for what the Caps did, they had ten different players with points, five different goal-scorers. They scored on five of their last 16 shots on goal.

-- Four was the magic number again. When the Caps allow four or fewer power play opportunities, they win. They allowed only four in this game (no goals) to go 8-0-0 when allowing four or fewer man advantages to the opponent.

-- Coming into this game, Alex Ovechkin scored all five of his goals on the road, all five of his assists at home. He finished the night with two assists to end that odd symmetry.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had a goal and an assist to give him 16 points on the season. He is now tied for third in the league in scoring.

-- The Caps have had good ice time balance recently, tending toward keeping all their forwards between 10 and 20 minutes of ice time. Cody Eakin only got 8:45 in this game, but it was not a product of poor play as much as the fact that the Caps had to kill three penalties and had a power play of their own in the second period. Eakin does not, at this early stage of his career, skate on special teams, so he was held to only two shifts in that second period.

-- Baby steps. Carolina came into this game with a team faceoff winning percentage only one tenth of one percent better than the Caps. Washington “held” the Hurricanes even in the circle, winning 29 draws and losing 29. Nicklas Backstrom (9-for-14) and Brooks Laich (6-for-11) both finished over 50 percent.

-- Tales of Strange Official Scoring. Carolina…27 hits. Washington…6 hits. Really? Alexei Ponikarovsky…7 hits by himself. Really?

-- If anything, this game could have been uglier for the Hurricanes if either of the Alexes had shot with better luck. Ovechkin had ten shot attempts, five of them blocked (three by defenseman Bryan Allen). Semin had five shots on goal among his eight shot attempts. Semin did have four takeaways.

-- Mathieu Perreault sat tonight for the Caps, and it got us to thinking after Mike Knuble and Jeff Halpern teamed up for the first Caps goal. If Knuble (39 years old) and Halpern (35) had skated with Perreault (23), would it be the “Two and a Half Men” line?... quiet, Kanoobie.

In the end, the Caps started sluggishly, but the power play at the end of the first period energized them. The Caps had eight shot attempts on that power play in the last 1:24 of the period (five on goal). It served as a springboard to get them skating, shooting, and scoring in the last 40 minutes. And at the other end, Michal Neuvirth shook off whatever rust remained from his long layoff to look sharp in turning away those last 21 shots he faced after Carolina scored a goal on a tip-in (and that being more a product of Jeff Schultz not tying up Anthony Stewart’s stick to keep him from deflecting the puck over Neuvirth).

It wasn’t the best the Caps have looked through 11 games, but the result was a balanced, workmanlike, “taking care of business” sort of win. And to say that in a game in which the Caps scored five goals and won by four going away, that’s something.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 11: Capitals at Hurricanes, November 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Capitals go on the road again for a quick two-game tour, opening the trip tonight in Carolina to face the Hurricanes in the teams’ second meeting of the year. The teams met on opening night, the Caps winning that one when Mike Green scored 2:24 into overtime to give the Caps a 4-3 win.  Let's get right to the tale o' the tape...

(click the pic for larger image)

This is what passes for a rivalry in the Southeast Division, and the Caps go into this edition with a 3-0-0 record against the Southeast, including their opening night win against Carolina.

1. It appears that Jeff Skinner’s rookie season was no fluke. He leads the team in most of the headline stats – goals, assists (tied), points, game-winning goals. But that’s offense. He also has been on the ice for 15 goals against (only one Cap forward has been on ice for 10 or more goals against – Brooks Laich, 11). He seems to like playing against the Southeast; he is 4-5-9, minus-1 in four games against the Southeast, 2-1-3, minus-5 in eight games against other divisions.

2. Carolina has allowed 36 goals this season. Eric Staal has been on the ice for 21 of them. His minus-12 is dead last among 670 skaters so far this season.

3. Only three teams in the league have had more power play opportunities than the Hurricanes. They are averaging 4.7 chances a game.

4. Carolina might not have high-end scoring from the blue line, but they do have balance. Six of seven defensemen have points this season (Justin Faulk is scoreless in three games).

5. Carolina does not take an inordinate amount of penalties (they rank 19th in minor penalties taken), but they tend to have them taken by defensemen. Three of the top four players in minors taken are defensemen. Perhaps something to watch for if it thins out the PK ranks on the blue line rotation.

1. Fun Fact… Alexander Semin is 26-17-43 in 36 career games against Carolina. It is part of his making the Southeast Division his own personal chew toy. In 137 games against Southeast Division opponents, he is 80-68-148, which translates to a 48-41-89 pace per 82 games.

2. If that’s good, Alex Ovechkin is a bit better. In 42 career games against Carolina he is 21-35-56 and 97-129-226 against the Southeast, a 48-64-112 pace over 82 games.

3. Only five teams have had fewer power play opportunities than the Capitals. They are averaging 3.8 chances a game. But while they average almost a full chance per game less than Carolina, the Caps have scored more power play goals (nine to eight).

4. Nicklas Backstrom has been in a zone playing traffic cop on the power play. Eight of his 14 points and seven of his ten assists have come at the man advantage.

5. Alex Ovechkin has five goals in 10 games so far…all of them have come on the road. He has five assists…all of them have come at home.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Cam Ward

Goalie Cam Ward has played well in games against Washington. He is 14-8-4, 2.54, .922, with three shutouts over 27 career games. But last season he was a victim of bad luck – or poor offense – in front of him. In five games against Washington in 2010-2011 he had a 2.16 goals against average and a .935 save percentage. He was also 1-3-1. He comes into this game having had a bit of that bad luck with two extra-time losses in his last three decisions. On the other hand, he has not lost a game in regulation time since October 10th (4-0-2).

Washington: Michal Neuvirth

Everyone is going to have their eyes on Alex Ovechkin to see how he responds in his first game after “The Benching.” But the outcome of this game probably rides more on the play of Michal Neuvirth, who should get the call in the first half of the back-to-back games this weekend. He has not started a game since opening night, and his rust was evident in his relief appearance against Vancouver last weekend. He needs to get minutes, and Tomas Vokoun needs a break. He does not have much work against Carolina in his career – 2-1-0, 2.64, .911 in three appearances. However, he does have a shutout in Raleigh on that resume.

Keys:

1. Empty the Box. Tonight’s Number… “4.” The Caps are 7-0-0 when allowing four or fewer power plays, 1-2-0 when they allow more than four. And the one win came in overtime against Pittsburgh. When you are an inefficient penalty killing team (the Caps are 25th in penalty killing at 75.0 percent), your effectiveness is determined by how many power plays you allow. Keep the penalty box empty.

2. Fill the Box. Cam Ward is a fine goaltender. He has played well against the Caps over his career, even if he’s been a victim of circumstance as far as wins and losses are concerned. Chances are there won’t be any soft goals given up. That means filling the space in front of his net, getting bodies below and inside the faceoff dots to break up his sight lines and occupy his attention.

3. Draw, podner. The Caps are 26th in the league in faceoffs. The ‘Canes are 25th, one tenth of one percent ahead of Washington. But Carolina is reasonably effective in situational faceoffs. Consider that Eric Staal is at 48.6 percent overall, but 53.8 percent in draws on the power play. He’s taken more power play draws than any other player for Carolina. Brandon Sutter is at 50.0 percent overall, but is 62.5 percent in shorthanded situations. He’s taken more shorthanded draws than any other player for Carolina. The Caps need to ramp up their game in the circle.

In the end, the Caps squeaked by in their last outing against an Anaheim team that wilted late in the fifth of a seven-game road trip. Carolina is fresh; they have not skated since Tuesday. The Caps have not really played a complete game since they dismantled the Detroit Red Wings almost two weeks ago. Their penalty killing as been poor (9-for-14), their power play has been weak (1-for-11), and it is perhaps the third line that has been the most consistent at both ends of the ice. The top line has to get more than just Nicklas Backstrom putting up points, and with Mike Green out the defense has to accelerate its partnership learning curve as the pairs are reconfigured. But with all that said, this game probably comes down to whether Neuvirth has any rust still lingering on his person.

Caps 5 – Hurricanes 3

The Standard

Yesterday there was some chatter on Twitter about the performance of Capitals’ goaltender Tomas Vokoun and his having started six games in a row, not having allowed more than two goals in any of them in compiling a 5-1-0 record. Comparisons were drawn to former Caps goalie Olaf Kolzig and a similar performance in his Vezina Trophy-winning year of 1999-2000 in which he also started six consecutive games (February 26-March 7, 2000) and allowed two or fewer goals in all of them.

Going back and looking at that season one finds that the six-game stretch Kolzig authored was but a part of a run in which he allowed two or fewer goals in nine straight appearances (one an abbreviated 40 minute stint in which he allowed two goals in a 3-0 loss to the Boston Bruins).

In fact, that 1999-2000 season was really one of two seasons for Kolzig. In the 1999 portion of the season he finished 10-13-6, 2.73, .893, and one shutout. He won consecutive starts only once before New Years’ Day 2000.

But the 2000 portion of the season? He was 31-7-5, 1.94, .932, with four shutouts. He had four streaks of at least four consecutive wins, including a seven-game streak from March 11-28, 2000. Only 11 times in 43 games did he allow more than two goals.

Y2K did not seem to present a problem for Kolzig that season.

Tomas Vokoun is the best goaltender the Caps have had since Kolzig, certainly. But if Vokoun is going to match that 1990-2000 season, he has quite a way to go. Those 43 games are perhaps the best sustained exhibition of goaltending in the history of the franchise.

Rerun

Picture...thousand words.

A TWO-point night -- Game 10: Caps 5 - Ducks 4 (OT)

It was an “other 40” game.

“Other 40,” Peerless? Yup, “other 40,” as in there are 20 games you are going to win, no matter what, and there are 20 games you are going to lose, no matter what. It’s what you do with the “other 40” that make or break your season.

Washington’s 5-4 overtime win over the Anaheim Ducks was a game in three acts. In Act I, the Caps sucked. There really isn’t any way to dress that pig and make it a prom queen. For the first 30:41 on this game, the Caps looked listless, uninterested, and as if they were suffering from some weird strain of group mononucleosis. It wasn’t as if the Ducks were channeling the 1978 Montreal Canadiens out there, but they were opportunistic. The second line of Andrew Cogliano, Saku Koivu, and Teemu Selanne made the Caps pay for three blunders that were turned into three goals in that first 30:41.

Saku Koivu got the Ducks off and running when Caps defensemen Dennis Wideman and Roman Hamrlik played Alphonse and Gaston with the puck. Wideman thought Hamrlik was going to be in position to take a pass behind the Caps’ net, but Hamrlik was in front. Teemu Selanne collected the loose puck and fed Koivu, who stepped around Hamrlik, in something of a no-man’s land just out of reach of the pass. Koivu held the puck for a couple of ticks and snapped a wrister over Tomas Vokoun’s glove to give the Ducks the lead.

Teemu Selanne got two of his own on plays that had Caps fans wondering, “how do you leave a guy who has scored 638 career goals that open on the back side of the play, not once, but TWICE?!” The
Caps did, and Selanne made them pay both times bunting pucks into what was for him an open net each time. Teemu? Hell, Shamu could have scored those goals.

But then the game, as they say, took a turn to begin Act II. It came at 10:41 of the second period, and it looked fairly innocuous at the time. Corey Perry took a penalty, a tripping call drawn by Mathieu Perreault (one of the few Caps to show much energy in the first 30 minutes). The Caps managed only one shot on the ensuing power play, that coming with three seconds left in the man advantage. But one could feel the energy starting to get sucked out of the Ducks. And sure enough, the Caps scored less than a minute after the penalty expired, a sharp-angled shot from near the goal line that Duck goalie Jonas Hiller bobbled between his pads.

Barely three minutes later it was the Ducks’ lack of energy that led to the second Caps goal. Tomas Vokoun beat Bobby Ryan to a loose puck in front and sent it the length of the ice. It caromed off the end wall, leaving Hiller in a position of having to play the puck. Sheldon Brookbank was the only Duck back to try to fend off Joel Ward and Brooks Laich, his teammates slow to get back into the defensive zone. The Caps got control of the puck, Laich picking it up along the right wing wall. He found Dennis Wideman pinching into a gap with the Ducks scurrying about with no clear purpose. Wideman leaned into one and beat Hiller to cut the Anaheim lead to one at the second intermission. In fact, if the period had lasted another 30 seconds, the Caps had the Ducks back on their webbed heels so badly that a goal seemed inevitable.

In the third the Caps took their only minor, a tripping call on Tomas Vokoun for dumping Corey Perry. Perry made him pay 69 seconds later. On what seemed to be his 116th whack at the puck from the post, he beat a prone Vokoun by whacking the puck out of mid-air and into the back of the net to restore a two goal lead.

Troy Brouwer got the Caps within one when he used Sheldon Brookbank for a screen and wristed the puck off Hiller’s glove. It popped loose and crawled over the line, setting the stage for a wild finish in Act III. With the Caps putting six skaters on the ice, Nicklas Backstrom, who spent much of the play circling in and out of the left wing circle, was in perfect position in the circle to collect a rebound of a Jason Chimera shot to wrist it past a diving Hiller with 42 seconds left to tie the game.

In overtime, it was Backstrom one more time on a play started by, of all people, Jeff Schultz, who kept a loose puck in the offensive zone and fed it across the middle. It hit the skate of Alex Ovechkin and ended up on the stick blade of Backstrom all alone in front of Hiller. The Swede did not miss, lifting the puck over Hiller’s blocker and into the back of the net for the improbable win.

Other stuff…

-- Much will be made of Alex Ovechkin sitting in that final minute of regulation when Backstrom was centering Laich, Chimera, and Ward, but Ovechkin was misfiring all night, too. Nine shot attempts, five going astray. He had four attempts in the third period, only one reaching Hiller, and that one from 34 feet out.

-- Alexander Semin seemed this close to getting a goal or a good scoring opportunity often in this game, but he still ended with three shots, three misses, and no points.

-- From the “six of one, half a dozen of the other” file, we’re not sure what to make of Anaheim’s offense. True, this was Game 5 on their seven-game road trip, but 15 shots, and 15 others blocked? The Ducks had a total of three shots on goal from players other than the top two lines of forwards. Was that good defense by Washington or inept offense from the Ducks?

-- Maybe the Ducks were just gassed. The Caps outshot them 31-9 in the last two periods and overtime, 24-5 after the Perry penalty that seemed to stop the Ducks’ momentum.

-- Roman Hamrlik was on the ice for all four Anaheim goals. You might be surprised to know that there are 30 NHLers that have been on the ice for more goals.

-- Think on this…the first line and the third line were left more or less intact in this game (with the notable absence of Ovechkin at the end of regulation). Those six forwards were 4-7-11, plus-9. The other six forwards were 0-0-0, minus-3.

-- Jeff Schultz..one hit, one blocked shot, one assist (on the game-winning goal), on ice for no goals against in 16 minutes and change. Just another day in the life…

-- The Ducks were 1-for-1 on the power play. That makes 9-for-14 on the penalty kill for the Caps over the last three games (64.3 percent).

-- The Caps were a grisly 7-for-20 in offensive zone draws. Marcus Johansson and Joel Ward (Joel Ward?...yes, Joel Ward) were the only Caps over 50 percent. It might have been a sign of how far the ice was tilted that there were only eight draws in the Caps’ end of the ice all night.

-- Both teams had 21 hits, but how they got there was very different. The Caps spread theirs among 13 players; no Cap had more than three (and in some Hallowe’en residue, Alexander Semin was one of them). For the Ducks, Francois Beauchemin had eight of 21.

-- No Caps forward played 20 minutes, even in an overtime game. Spreading the ice time continues.

-- The top line for the Ducks of Bobby Ryan, Ryan Getzlaf, and Corey Perry was held to one goal and was a minus-6 for the game.

-- John Carlson had moments when it looked as if he missed his usual partner, Karl Alzner (Carlson skated with an assortment of partners in this game), but he still skated more than 25 minutes (led the Caps in ice time), had nine shot attempts (tied for team lead), and had five blocked shots to lead the team.

In the end, the Caps were the fresher team, better able to give a high level of effort for 60 minutes. Except, they didn’t. There wasn’t enough juice there to light an appliance bulb in those first 30 minutes. But they made up for it in the last 30 of regulation, and Anaheim wilted. Playing three defensemen – Cam Fowler, Francois Beauchemin, and Toni Lydman -- more than 24 minutes might have had something to do with it, too. Nevertheless, this isn’t the BCS, and two points are two points.

The Caps climbed back over the Toronto Maple Leafs with the win and are back in second place, two points behind Pittsburgh with three games in hand. The schedule gets easier for the next couple of weeks with games against Carolina, the Islanders, Dallas, and a home-and-home against New Jersey. Dallas is the only one of that group that can be said to be playing well at the moment. But if the Caps lapse into 30-minutes games like this one, that could end up being as rough a stretch of games as if they were facing Philadelphia, Detroit, and Vancouver again.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 10: Ducks at Capitals, November 1st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

On Tuesday, the Capitals return to the friendly confines of Verizon Center after having dropped both ends of a short road trip to the western provinces of Canada. Meanwhile their opponent – the Anaheim Ducks – are in the midst of a seven-game road trip on which they are currently 1-2-1 after four games. This will be the Ducks’ third city in four nights, having dropped two games in two nights in Nashville and Columbus on Saturday and Sunday.

“hey cuz…cuz…what time does a duck wake up?”

I dunno, Cheerless, what time does a duck wake up?

“At the quack of dawn!”

…ugh.

“And where did the duck go when he had the flu?”

Don’t say it…

“The ducktor!”

Does this go on much longer?

“Whaddya call a clever duck?”

Please…shoot me.

“A wise quacker!”

I’m glad the Caps don’t play the chickens.

“What goes ‘quick-quick’?”

This is why there is a seven-day waiting period for handguns.

“A duck with hiccups!”

Can we just get to the game?  First, let's take a look at how the Ducks compare with the Caps heading into Tuesday's contest...

(click on pic for larger image)

1. Anaheim has scored 21 goals through 11 games. That 1.91 goals/game average ranks the Ducks 29th in the league. But perhaps worse for them is that the Ducks are essentially “Top Line Plus Teemu.” The top line of Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Bobby Ryan have four goals apiece. Add the three scored by Selanne, and that is 15 of the 21 overall. No other Duck has more than one, and only two other forwards – Andrew Cogliano and Maxime Macenauer – have as many as one.

2. The Ducks have a fairly respectable goals-scored number in the first period of games this year – nine in 11 games. Only six teams have more. But the Ducks fade late. Only four teams have scored fewer than the six second period goals Anaheim has, and only three have fewer than the six third period goals scored by the Ducks. They have one third period goal in their last four games. Ottawa has as many third period goals scored (21) as Anaheim has, well, goals scored.

3. In 16 man-games in their respective careers against the Caps, the trio of Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Bobby Ryan are a combined 8-14-22. Please…pay attention! Oh, and for those of you keeping score, the Caps could have had either Ryan Getzlaf or Corey Perry, both of whom were selected by Anaheim in the 2003 entry draft (19th and 28th overall).

4. Odd Duck Records… Anaheim has 34 hat tricks in team history, but no one has ever had more than three goals in a game…retired defenseman Dmitri Mironov once played for the Caps, but he holds an Anaheim team record against the Caps – five assists in one game (December 12, 1997)…the six goals Anaheim scored in a 7-6 loss to the Caps last February 16th represents the most goals scored by the Ducks in a regulation-time loss.

5. No Anaheim defenseman has a power play goal yet this season. In fact, among the eight defensemen having dressed for games so far, only two have points – Lubomir Visnovsky (0-2-2) and Cam Fowler (0-1-1). They also happen to be the only Duck defensemen averaging more than 1:30 of power play time per game.

1. All 18 skaters who took the ice on opening night have at least one point for the Caps; 14 of them have goals. Nine different Caps have power play points; six of them have goals. Of the six game-winning goals scored thus far by the Caps (the seventh win coming in the trick shot phase), all of them are power play goals.

2. Among players having taken at least 50 faceoffs this season, only six players have a worse faceoff percentage than Marcus Johansson’s 38.5 percent. As a team the Caps are 27th in the league on draws. In the six years since the lockout coming into this season the Caps finished out of the top-ten in faceoffs only once.

3. Only three teams have less power play ice time than do the Caps, and the Caps have barely half as much time (50:46) as do the league leading Columbus Blue Jackets (101:18). Then again, Columbus has two wins in 12 games and has a power play running at 10.2 percent (29th). Maybe having lots of power play ice time is a product of doing do little with it.

4. One reason the Caps lead the league in offense?... They lead all teams in 5-on-5 goal scoring (2.56/game). That is more than the combined scoring output per game of 16 teams. Only three teams have scored more goals at 5-on-5, and only three teams have allowed fewer at full and even strength.

5. Last season, the Caps lost consecutive games in Games 6 and 7. They then went 10-1-1.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder:

Anaheim: Teemu Selanne

In his certain to be Hall of Fame career, Teemu Selanne has not scored goals at a faster pace against any team than he has against the Capitals. In 23 career games against Washington, Selanne has 19 goals (a 68-goal pace over 82 games). He has turned into something of a playmaker with seven assists in his last eight games. He has a goal in each of the last four games he appeared in against the Caps. Weekends do not seem to agree with Selanne so far this season. In eight games on Friday through Sunday, he is 0-3-3, minus-5. But he is 3-4-7, plus-2 on Monday through Thursday. It might be worth noting as well that he has two of his three goals in the second half of back-to-back games and his other goal with one day’s rest.

Washington: Alexander Semin

Alexander Semin has two goals in the Caps’ nine games so far, only one in eight games since opening night. Part of the problem is lack of shots. He has one or no shots in four of the eight games, two in two others. Since opening night he is 1-for-16 shooting. If he is going to break out against a team not from the Southeast Division, this could be the team. He has six goals in three career games against the Ducks, including a hat trick in that wild 7-6, come from behind four times win against the Ducks last February 16th. It’s also worth noting that after the Caps had their first two-game losing streak last season, Semin had a hat trick in his next game, three of the four goals in a 4-3 overtime win over Atlanta.

Keys:

1. No Leavin’ Even. The Caps have outscored the Ducks at even strength, 25-15, and have done it playing in two fewer games. Only three Ducks have more than one even-strength goal for the season (none of them are last year’s league MVP, Corey Perry). The Caps’ 5-on-5 goals scored-to-goals allowed ratio (1.64:1) is more than twice that of the Ducks (0.75:1). If the Caps don’t win this battle, one can’t think they are going to win the game.

2. Shoot, shoot again, shoot some more. Jonas Hiller was 3-1-0 in his first four decisions in goal for the Ducks. He faced an average of 24.7 shots per 60 minutes and had a save percentage of .931. In his last five decisions he is 1-3-1 and he has faced 28.0 shots per 60 minutes with a save percentage of .882.

3. Don’t be “Wild” about penalty killing. Anaheim has managed two power play goals in a game only once this season. They came at the expense of the Minnesota Wild on October 27th in the Ducks’ last win. Why is this significant? Well, because the Wild is not a very good penalty killing team so far – tied for 23rd in penalty killing going into Monday’s action (77.1 percent). The thing is, though, the team with which they are tied happens to be the Caps.

In the end, the Caps are facing their first adversity of the season. Lest fans forget, though, the Caps lost consecutive games in Games 6 and 7 of the season last year and then went 10-1-1 in their next dozen games. They were pretty good at keeping streaks short. Other than the eight-game horror show last December the Caps had streaks of two or more losses in regulation only three times, and none longer than three. Every team is different, though, and it will be interesting to see how the Caps handle this hurdle.

Caps 4 - Ducks 2

That Was The Week That Was -- Week 3 (October 23-29)

Sometimes you get the bear, and sometimes the bear gets you. As good as the previous week was, this one was not. Two games, two losses, and the Caps slink home with no points to show for their abbreviated road trip out west. And in an odd bit of circumstance, the Caps end the week with only one team in the East – Boston – nursing a longer losing streak than the two in a row suffered by the Caps.

Record for the week: 0-2-0

The Caps started the week holding the franchise record for consecutive wins to start a season – seven – and were aiming to become only the second team in Washington history in any sport to start a season with eight straight wins. The Redskins won 11 consecutive games to start the 1991 season. Any thought of the Caps trying to tie that record when they came home against Anaheim on November 1st were put away when a spunky Edmonton Oiler team bit them in the backside with a 2-1 win on Thursday (edit: uh, cuz?...don't you mean "close in" on that record?).

Ironically enough, the Oilers defeated the Caps’ next opponent – Vancouver – in the game just before the Caps visited Rexall Place. And after the Caps left that venue after the 2-1 loss, they went to visit Vancouver, a team that struggled to beat Minnesota in overtime before losing two in a row in the run up to their hosting the Caps. The Caps seemed to be the tonic for the struggling Canucks, for after scoring only two goals in their two straight losses, Vancouver lit up the Caps for seven in a 7-4 win. It made for a rough week, the end of which saw the Caps now in third place in the East behind Pittsburgh and the surprising Toronto Maple Leafs, and only two points ahead of Florida and Tampa Bay in the Southeast Division.

Offense: 2.50/game (season: 3.78/game, rank: 1st)

One period with three goals, the other five with a total of two. Not what one would call a balanced or, ultimately, an effective effort. The third and fourth lines were shut out on goals, and only Jason Chimera and Jeff Halpern recorded any points (an assist apiece). Not that the top two forward lines were all that sparkling, either. Alex Ovechkin had two goals. Marcus Johansson had one to finish the week tied with Ovechkin for the team lead in goals, and Mike Knuble scored on a penalty shot. Defenseman Karl Alzner had the other goal, the lone tally against Edmonton. Five goals on 67 shots (7.5 percent) wasn’t terrible, but it was quite a come down from scoring 15 goals on 85 shots (17.6 percent) in the previous week.

Defense: 4.50 goals/game (season: 2.56, rank: T-15th)

It was a Jekyll and Hyde sort of week. The Caps held the Oilers to a total of 38 shot attempts on Thursday, only 19 shots on goal (the Caps matched that total in the third period of the 2-1 loss). Things were quite different on Saturday. The Caps allowed almost as many shots (17) in the first period of the game against Vancouver as they did in the entire game against Edmonton. It was an effective job of jumping on the visitors by the Canucks. And Vancouver got pucks to the net. Of the 70 attempts the Canucks launched at the Caps’ net, 61.4 percent got through. And on a night when neither goaltender was on top of his game, that was 61.4 percent too much. It is worth noting (or forgetting) that the Karl Alzner/John Carlson defensive pair was on the ice for four of the seven goals Vancouver scored in their 7-4 win.

Goaltending: 1.00/.968

After the run he had since allowing five goals in his first performance in a Caps sweater – 5-0-0, 1.19, .965, and one shutout – it was bound to come to an end. And it did this week for Tomas Vokoun, who allowed two goals on 19 shots in Edmonton, then allowed three on 17 shots in 40 minutes in Vancouver for a week that ended 0-1-0, 3.82, .861. It says something about that run he had that Vokoun is still in the top-15 in goals against and eighth overall in save percentage. Michal Neuvirth saw his first action since opening night, and the three-week hiatus showed. He allowed four goals on the last 21 shots he faced in relief of Vokoun against Vancouver, three of them coming on three shots by the Canucks in a 4:07 span of the third period that was the difference in a 7-4 decision that was tied after 40 minutes. There have been better weeks.

Power Play: 1-for-8/12.5 percent (season: 25.7%, rank: 3rd)

The Caps saw a streak of five games with at least one power play goal ended in Edmonton, although the Oilers have displayed an effective penalty kill so far this season. They started a new streak when Alex Ovechkin netted an extra-man marker in the second period against Vancouver, but it was the only one they had for the week. The good and the bad is that the Caps did spread the shooting around – eight different Caps shared 14 power play shots on goal for the week. But on the other side, only one of those came from Alexander Semin, and neither John Carlson nor Roman Hamrlik seemed to be able to fill the shoes of the injured Mike Green in making the power play click from the blue line.

Penalty Killing: 9-for-13/69.2 percent (season: 77.1%, T-23rd)

Special teams were not a strength this week, and the penalty kill was the worse of the two. Part of it was too many opportunities allowed. The eight power play chances the Caps allowed against Edmonton was the most they allowed in a game since they gave up nine in a 5-4 Gimmick loss to the Flyers on November 20th of last season. Those eight opportunities were as many as the Caps allowed in the three previous games combined. Skating 11:21 in penalty killing time was just too much to maintain any kind of rhythm in the rest of their game.

It didn’t get much better against Vancouver, as the Canucks registered power play goals on two of their first three chances to help themselves to a 3-1 lead after 20 minutes, putting the Caps in the position of catch-up. That the Caps were outscored 4-1 for the week on special teams, against teams ranked far below them on the power play (Vancouver finished the week tied for ninth, the Oilers 12th), made for a rough week on special teams.

Paying the Price: 23 hits/30 blocked shots (season rank: 20th/21st)

Part of it was the fact that the Caps played only two games this past week, but the totals here were still not indicative of a team that skated with a lot of energy. The good part might be that 15 different skaters blocked at least one shot. The bad might be that of 23 recorded hits for the week, Troy Brouwer had nine of them – 14 for the other 17 skaters. Matt Hendricks, who had three for the week, was the only other Cap with more than two.

Faceoffs: 55-for-118/46.6 percent (season: 47.9 percent, rank: 27th)

Of all the Caps taking at least ten draws for the week, only Jeff Halpern was over 50 percent – barely (7-for-13). The two games were quite a study in contrasts. Against Edmonton the Caps won the battle in the offensive and defensive ends, going 10-for-19 in the offensive end and 12-for-17 in the defensive end on the way to a 29-for-53 effort. But it was brutal against Vancouver – 4-for-18 in the offensive end and 9-for-24 in the defensive end. This might now qualify as a problem for the Caps. They are ranked 27th in the league, and of the five Caps taking at least 20 draws, only Jeff Halpern is over 50 percent. But he doesn’t get much in the way of ice time, and he is fourth in total draws taken. Mathieu Perreault is the second highest ranked Cap in winning percentage – 46.2 percent.

Turnovers: even

Going plus-24 the previous week was extraordinary. But this past week erred on the other side of what one might like to see. The Caps were not lazy with the puck, at least on the score sheet. They had 15 giveaways for the week. But the other side of that coin is that they had only ten takeaways. Only Nicklas Backstrom and Roman Hamrlik (two apiece) had more than one.

Impressions:

All the joking about teams going 82-0-0 aside, this was not a good week. They lost a game against a team they should have defeated in Edmonton, and they had a game on their plate after 40 minutes that they let get away with a four minute stretch of iffy play in the third period against Vancouver. There are going to be stretches like this in an 82-game season, but again, the trick is keeping them infrequent and short. There was not one single area that came up short this week. You name it – power play, penalty killing, goaltending, even scoring at even strength (outscored, 5-3 for the week) – it came up short.

This ends a difficult stretch in which the Caps faced three playoff teams from last season and an up-and-coming team. They broke even in doing so, which was not the worst result one could imagine. The Caps return home to face an Anaheim team that is only playing .500 hockey (5-5-1), but no doubt remembers the 7-6 loss the Caps gave them last season, when the Caps came from behind with two goals by Alexander Semin in the last ten minutes of the game. It would be nice to have Semin break out again against the Ducks and end this short slump.

Three Stars of the Week:

1st Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-0-2, even)
2nd Star: Dennis Wideman (0-1-1, plus-1; 11 shot attempts/four SOG, one hit, one takeaway, two blocked shots; not on ice for any goals against)
3rd Star: Nicklas Backstrom (0-2-2, even; on ice for only one of nine goals against)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 9: Capitals at Canucks, October 29th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

One in a row. Now, the trick is to make sure it doesn’t become “two in a row.” The Caps will try to make that so – the not losing two in a row part – when they visit the Vancouver Canucks on Saturday night. Vancouver has not been such a hospitable place for the Caps, who drag a 16-19-5-1 franchise record against the Canucks into Rogers Arena. Not that the Caps have had much success against this team anywhere recently; they have just one win in regulation in their last 13 games against the Canucks (3-9-1 overall).

The Canucks are suffering from what looks to be a “Stanley Cup Finals hangover.” And it got us to wondering what someone in their position might do to cure that hangover. We don’t mean those namby-pamby cures like drinking lots of water or taking six aspirin. Nosiree…for a heavy duty hangover that has lasted almost five months, you need extra-strength cures. Cures like…

- Menudo. No, not the boy band. Menudo as in soup. And not any old Campbell’s tomato variety. This one includes honeycomb tripe, pigs feet, onion, garlic, chiles, and hominy. You’re supposed to eat this first thing in the morning, no doubt before your eyes focus and you see that your eating the stomach lining of a cow. We’re thinking if you can keep it down, your hangover is cured.

- The Prairie Oyster. Tomato juice, Worcestershire sauce and a raw egg. Beats the Rocky Mountain kind, one supposes.

- “Soup for the Stomach”… a Korean concoction made up of pork spine or cow bones, coagulated ox blood, cabbage, and vegetables. At least it’s not soup made out of a stomach.

- Rabbit Dropping Tea. A favorite among cowboys of the American West. Don’t ask.

- Warm milk and soot. Chimney sweeps would use this one, but it also appeared in 19th century hospitals.

- Then there is the one that socialite Samuel Benedict thought up and had the staff of the Waldorf Astoria Hotel whip up more than a century ago…half an English muffin, ham, poached eggs, and Hollandaise sauce. That’s right, the “Eggs Benedict.”

- But perhaps nothing tops what the ancient Romans cooked up… deep fried canaries.

Bet you want to go drinking now, eh?

The Caps will try for their eighth win of the year against a team that is struggling in unexpected fashion. The Vancouver Canucks returned, for the most part, the team that went to a Stanley Cup final last year. Of the 22 skaters to take the ice so far this season and two goaltenders, 19 of them appeared in the playoffs last season. Nine of the Canucks’ top ten playoff scorers returned. But as we move closer to this contest, think on this. The Canucks are currently 4-5-1 through ten games. It is not as if they came screaming out of the gate last year on their way to the Stanley Cup finals. They started 5-3-2 in their first ten games last season. Here is how the two teams stack up so far this season…

(click on pic for larger image)

1. At the moment (going into Friday night’s games), only three teams have a larger shot differential per game than do the Canucks (+6.5). Last season, when the Canucks led the league in goals for and goals allowed, their shot differential was only 1.9 shots per game. Stranger still is that the Canucks are allowing the fifth fewest shots per game (26.8). Only twice in ten games have the Canucks allowed more than 30 shots on goal.

2. In ten games, Vancouver scored the first goal only twice. Five times they allowed the first goal of the game before the contest reached the ten minute mark. The Canucks are 2-5-1 in games in which they allowed the first goal.

3. The Canucks spend a lot of time working their special teams. They are fourth in the league in total power play time (7:03 per game) and only six teams have skated more minutes on the penalty kill (6:50 per game). They have done reasonably well on special teams (10th on the power play, 12th in penalty killing), but perhaps spending almost a quarter of the game on special teams has impact the rhythm of their five-on-five play – they are 27th in the league in 5-on-5 goals for and against ratio.

4. Vancouver is going to want to keep this close. They are 3-2-1 in one-goal games, but only 1-3 in games decided by more than one goal. And, they have the second-worst plus-minus at home this season (minus-4). Only four Canucks are on the plus-side of the ledger.

5. In four games at home only one Canuck has more than one goal (Daniel Sedin with three), although they do have eight with one apiece. Only three defensemen have recorded at least one point at home; Sami Salo and Alexander Edler split six points, and Keith Ballard has an assist.

1. Second period swoon… in eight games the Caps have 10 first period goals (tied for fourth) and 12 third period goals (sixth). In the second period they have a total of six (tied for 23rd). By the same token, the Caps have allowed only four second period goals; only two teams have allowed fewer in the middle frame.

2. Covering the matter of “zero”… No Capital skater is on the minus side of the plus-minus ledger (seven of 21 skaters taking the ice are plus-5 or better). Mathieu Perreault has skated a total of 62:46 in ice time and has been on the ice for no goals; he doesn’t have a giveaway, either. Of all the forwards having played in more than two games, none are without an assist. Alexander Semin is the only Cap having played more than two games who has yet to register a blocked shot.

3. No team has been shorthanded fewer times in the third period so far this season than the Caps (five times).

4. Washington has the fewest major penalties taken of any team in the NHL this season…one. That would be the one that Jay Beagle would like to forget.

5. Since the lockout, Tomas Vokoun is 6-3-1, 1.95, .941 against the Canucks, but he has regulation losses in his last two decisions.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Vancouver: Roberto Luongo

Roberto Luongo certainly has seen the Caps before. In 32 career appearances he is 17-10-3 with a 2.25 goals against average, a .929 save percentage, and two shutouts. Since joining the Canucks he is 4-1-0, 2.75, .898 against Washington, but the goals against and save percentage are inflated by a five goals on 25 shot performance in only 40 minutes in a 5-1 loss in Washington on October 13, 2008. He has had his troubles so far this season, with a 2-3-1, 3.45, .868 record, and in only one game has he allowed fewer than three goals. But Luongo has had consistent success against the Caps. If he falters, then Canuck fans will know he has problems.

Washington: Alexander Semin

Alexander Semin started the season on a good note – 2-3-5, plus-2 in his first five games. But in his last three he is 0-1-1, minus-1, and he has recorded only three shots on goal. While Marcus Johansson has been impressive in the early going on the second line, it is Semin who is expected to drive this line over the long haul. He does, however, have three goals in his last two games against the Canucks.

Keys:

1. Thrive at Five-on-Five. The Caps have allowed the second fewest goals at 5-on-5 (nine), while only four teams have allowed more at full and even-strength than Vancouver (20). The Caps have also scored eight more goals at 5-on-5 than have the Canucks.

2. On the other hand… only four teams have had more power play opportunities at home than has Vancouver. Until the Edmonton game the Caps were stingy in allowing such opportunities. They have to get back to that.

3. First 40… The Caps have trailed at the second intermission in only one game so far this season. That would be the game they lost.

In the end, the Caps have been a team that has been able to avoid long losing streaks. Since that eight-gamer last December, only twice have the Caps lost two or more consecutive regular season games in regulation – a two-game streak in mid-January and a three-game streak in early February last season. Losing did not become habit forming. On the other side, the Canucks have had surprising difficulty mounting a consistent offense. Twice in their last five games they were shutout, and in two other games they managed only two goals in regulation time. But while the Canucks might have started the season in a post-Stanley Cup finals funk, the Caps will get their full and undivided attention. This could boil down to whether Luongo finds the game he has so often displayed against the Caps in the past. We’re betting he won’t.

Caps 4 – Canucks 3

A NO-point night -- Game 8: Oilers 2 - Capitals 1

All good things come to an end.

The Caps lost their first game of the season last night, a 2-1 decision at the hands of the Edmonton Oilers. It came down to numbers…

11:03. The total amount of time that the Caps spent shorthanded last night. That number eclipsed the total amount of time spent killing penalties in the previous two games combined (10:51).

7… That’s where Dennis Wideman’s points streak comes to an end. Not for lack of trying. In more than 23 minutes of ice time he had nine shot attempts, three on goal.

5… That’s where the Caps’ consecutive games streak ends with at least one power play goal. They were 0-for-4 last night.

19… shots on goal in the third period, all of them stopped by Nikolai Khabibulin. In fact, Khabibulin stopped the last 31 shots he faced. The 19 shots the Caps had in the third equaled the Edmonton total for the entire game.

15… the total number of shots on goal put up by the top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Troy Brouwer out of 35 total shots on goal. That line had 25 of the total 66 shot attempts.

4… hooking calls against the Caps. One more and the whole team would have been hauled off to the hooskow for solicitation.

2… last night was the first time since opening night that the Caps allowed two power play goals.

23… last night broke a streak of 23 games in which the Caps allowed an opponent five or fewer power plays (Edmonton had eight). It was the most allowed by the Caps since allowing nine in a 5-4 Gimmick loss to Philadelphia last November 20th.

4… Edmonton’s “kiddie line” of Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had four of a possible six points on the two Edmonton goals.

2… Corey Potter had the other two points for the Oilers, his first multi-point game in the NHL.

On to Vancouver to start a new streak.

"Matters" and "Counts"

I’m hung up on words this afternoon… “matters” and “counts.”

The reason I’m engaged in mental gymnastics over words is a persistent theme, not spoken too loudly, but discernible nonetheless. And it’s one we’ve sung before, too. That is the theme that “noting matters until the spring.”

Well, no. Thinking about this and reading about the Caps since camp, we are inclined to, if not change, then alter our opinion on the issue of whether or not the regular season “matters.” We would like to amend that to say that the regular season for the Caps doesn’t “count.” No one wins a Stanley Cup for having the most standings points. But the regular season certainly matters. And here is why…

Alex Ovechkin came to camp last year expecting to play himself into playoff shape in time for the playoffs. We (and no doubt he) saw how that worked. It was a year that saw his numbers drop and a playoff that was – again – disappointing. This year, he came to camp in better condition, and while he hasn’t yet exhibited an offensive explosion along the lines he displayed regularly in the 2009-2010 season, he is still the second ranked point getter on the top offensive team in the league.

Bruce Boudreau was accused often last year of being a bit (or more than a bit) soft on his players – optional practices and practices that might not have been as hard or focused as they could have been. This year, camp was all business, and practices seem to have a point, not the least being that attending to business is the object of the exercise. And his sitting Marcus Johansson in the opener after a so-so camp sent a signal that last’s year’s operating model isn’t this year’s. It has had the intended effect on Johansson’s game, if not the whole roster.

Last year, the Caps had a stunning lack of killer instinct. Too often they let teams smack them around early (they were outscored, 60-54, in the first period of games and allowed the first goal in 47 of 82 games). Even though they outscored teams by an 89-63 margin in the third period and overtime of games last season, one didn’t get the sense they pulled away and stood on the necks of those opponents. This year so far, the Caps are outscoring opponents by more than two goals a game and have outscored them by about two-to-one in each of the three periods in games so far.

Last year, Nicklas Backstrom was held without a point in five of his first seven games on his way to a 36-point drop in points from the previous year. Through seven games so far, he is 2-8-10, which looks a lot more like the 2-9-11 start he had through seven games on his way to a 101-point season in 2009-2010.

Mike Green is 3-3-6 so far, compared to an 0-2-2 start he had through seven games last season. This start looks a little like that 4-2-6 start in 2008-2009 when he finished the season with 31 goals and 73 points.

It is true that when these guys were putting up big numbers, the spring was an unfriendly time of year for them. But this team looks different. There isn’t the “devil may care” fun-loving air that surrounded those teams of big numbers and big disappointments. This team looks hungrier. Outscoring teams by a roughly two-to-one margin in each period speaks toward a clearer display of a killer instinct than they expressed in previous seasons.

But that is only through seven games. The trick is to use these last 75 games of the regular season, not only to build an impressive record and qualify for the playoffs, but to develop the good – winning – habits that champions have. To do the right things the right way, in practice and in games. To avoid the temptation to take shortcuts that comes from depending more on innate skill than hard work. To make these good habits instincts, not something you try to learn in the first week of April when the playoff seedings come out.

And that, dear reader is why, the regular season “matters.”  How the Caps treat this regular season will go a long way toward finding out whether it "counts" for anything in the spring.