A TWO-point night -- Game 5: Capitals 3 - Sabres 2

Even in 2009-2010, when the Caps finished the season with a franchise best 54 wins, they had to get a “first” win.  Today the Caps got their first win of the 2013 season, a 3-2 victory over the Buffalo Sabres in Washington.  It was not without its moments of suspense, especially late, but it was a win, and not the accidental or unearned variety.  The Caps played their most complete game of the season and got something to build on as they head out on the Canada Road this week.

It did not start out to the liking of the Caps or their fans, the visitors getting the first goal midway through the first period.  Tyler Ennis finished a nice triangle passing play that started when Drew Stafford pilfered the puck from under John Carlson’s stick and led a rush into the Washington end.  Upon crossing the blue line he dished the puck to Steve Ott on the left wing.  As Stafford continued his sprint to the net, Ott hit the trailer Ennis, who followed in Stafford’s wake and slid the puck under goalie Michal Neuvirth to open the scoring.

The Caps knotted the game with under four minutes to go in the first period when Jason Chimera collected a pass from Mike Ribeiro in the right wing corner to goalie Ryan Miller’s left.  Chimera spun and wristed the puck at the net, where Miller sticked the puck away.  However, in doing so Miller sent the puck up the middle where Joel Ward had slipped by Cody Hodgson (who had a brutal game for Buffalo).  Ward wasted no time in slamming the loose puck past Miller to tie the game, ending the scoring for the first 20 minutes.

Washington would get the only goal of the second period, a product of a John Erskine wrister from the left point that was screened by no fewer than four Sabres on its way to the Buffalo net.  The last Sabre – Hodgson – deflected the puck just enough for it to elude Miller for the tie-breaking goal. 

The last period was a return to the past, if but for a moment.  It started when Alexander Sulzer backhanded the puck over the glass to earn a delay-of-game penalty.  On the ensuing power play Mike Ribeiro picked up a loose puck as he was backing up to the goal line to Ryan Miller’s left.  Ribiero kicked the puck back out to Mike Green at the top of the right wing faceoff circle.  From there Green laid the puck off to his left where Alex Ovechkin was waiting in his office, the left wing faceoff circle.  Ovechkin one-timed the Green pass over Miller’s blocker and under the crossbar to give the Caps a 3-1 lead.

The Caps would need the insurance late as Marcus Foligno halved the Caps’ lead by swatting in a rebound from the top of the Caps’ crease, but Buffalo could get no closer.  The Caps might have added another insurance goal in the last 30 seconds with Miller pulled for an extra attacker, but Ovechkin rang a shot off the near post with an empty net in front of him to add a bit of drama to the last few moments.  No harm was done, though, and the Caps skated off with a 3-2 win.

Other stuff…

-  It was a day of firsts for the Caps…

• The first win of Adam Oates’ head coaching career
• The first win for the Caps this season
• The first goal for Alex Ovechkin this season
• The first goal for John Erskine this season
• The first time the Caps led at an intermission this season (2-1 after the second period)
• First win and first home win of the season

-  Ovechkin played in a manner to which his fans are more accustomed.  He had his first goal of the season, five shots on goal, one missed shot (the missed empty net), three hits, and a takeaway in 18:29 of ice time.  And, he ran down at least three potential icing calls and displayed a backchecking effort folks complain they do not see enough of.  He looked like a guy tired of losing.

-  With two assists on the day, Mike Ribeiro is now 1-5-6 and leads the team in points.  He has points in four of the five games the Caps have played to date.

-  Every Capital taking more than two draws had a winning percentage on faceoffs.  Small wonder; Buffalo came into the game dead last in the league in faceoff winning percentage and was under 40 percent (37.7 percent) in this one.

-  Joel Ward got his third goal in five games this afternoon.  Caps fans might remember that last year Ward had three goals in his first ten games, then had one in his next 27 games.  However, this has a different look to it; Adam Oates seems more inclined than was Dale Hunter, at least for the time being, for putting Ward in positions (mainly in close) where he can do some damage on rebounds.  At the moment, Ward has inherited the “Knuble” seat for the Caps.

-  Now that Ovechkin is off the schneid, and Mike Ribeiro is on a bit of a roll, the next order of business is to get Nicklas Backstrom untracked.  In 19:42 Backstrom had two shots on goal and no points.  He is now three games without a point and has not scored a goal in any of the five games, his longest streak without a goal to open a season since the 2009-2010 season (14 games).

-  That the Caps held the Sabres to two goals was not so much a product of stout defense as it was: a) Buffalo not having Thomas Vanek in the lineup, and b) Michal Neuvirth bailing them out after breakdowns in front.  Neuvirth was solid in his positioning and quick when he needed to be.  At the moment, he seems to have a solid hold on the number one goaltender position.

-  John Erskine skated 20:56 in ice time in this contest.  It was the first time he finished with more than 20 minutes in a game that ended in regulation since he skated 20:13 in a 5-2 win over the Sabres on December 23, 2009.

-  From the “who gets what” file, Jay Beagle had 10 defensive zone faceoffs taken (no offensive zone draws), Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Ribeiro combined to take nine offensive zone draws.  This seems intuitively obvious from an ice management perspective, but it did not seem to be the case for the Caps last year.

-  Say what you will about Mathieu Perreault, but he does have a certain fearless (if at times futile) air about him.  Marcus Foligno is 6’3”, 226 pounds, but there was Perreault (5’10”, 185 pounds…maybe) at least making the effort to tie him up as Foligno got behind Mike Green (who was engaged with Patrick Kaleta) and was putting a rebound past Michal Neuvirth late. 

-  The Caps have now killed off nine of their last ten shorthanded situations.  In those ten shorthanded situations the Caps have allowed one goal on 15 shots.

In the end, it is one thing to say this was the most complete game that the Caps have played so far (it is), but it is another to say they played at a high level.  Remember, this Sabres team was lit up for nine goals in two games by Carolina and was missing its top goal scorer and point producer.  Still, this is not the Beauty Contest System of college football; you do not get extra standings points for winning pretty.  The Caps built on the baby step they took in New Jersey on Friday, and all of a sudden we can say that the Caps are on a points earned streak (1-0-1 in their last two contests). 

It gets harder from here, though.  Washington will go on the road to Canada to take on Ottawa and Toronto before playing three games in four against the Pennsylvania teams – Pittsburgh (twice) and Philadelphia.  It is a tough six-game stretch over which the Caps will have to raise their game another level of two again above what they displayed in this game.  But this game certainly was something on which they could build.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 5: Sabres at Capitals, January 27th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Washington Capitals return home on Sunday to try to build on their standings point earned in New Jersey on Friday night.  The Buffalo Sabres come to town in the midst of a two-game losing streak, dropping consecutive games in a back-to-back, home-and-home pair to the Carolina Hurricanes.

The next step for the Caps will be to climb out of last place in the league, which is where they still find themselves four games into the season.  Buffalo provides some interesting counterpoint in this game as the Caps try to start that climb.  It was against Buffalo that the Caps ended their six-game losing streak to start the 1993-1994 season, a win that allowed the Caps to avoid an 0-3-0 start at home.  As it is, the Caps will be looking to avoid recording their first 0-3-0 start (all regulation losses) at home since the 1978-1979 season.

The Sabres might be just the thing for the Caps.  Buffalo is 1-5-1 in their last seven visits to Washington, and as we noted, they are coming off consecutive losses to Carolina.  Not only that, but Thomas Vanek, who leads the club in scoring with three goals and nine points, is questionable with what is being called an “undetermined muscle strain.”

If Vanek is unable to go, that would leave the Sabres with two other three-goal scorers in their lineup.  Jason Pominville is 3-5-8 through four games so far and has points in each of the four games played to date. Pominville has been a particular thorn in the side of the Caps.  In his last 20 games against Washington covering five seasons he is 8-9-17, plus-3.

While Jason Pominville has a long and successful history against the Caps, the other three-goal scorer for the Sabres so far has neither.  Cody Hodgson was a tenth-overall draft pick of the Vancouver Canucks in 2008.  He was traded to Buffalo by the Canucks at last year’s trading deadline for Zack Kassian.  In his rookie season last year, split between Vancouver and Buffalo, Hodgson was 19-22-41, plus-1.  What he has not had is much in the way of experience against the Caps.  In two career games against Washington he is 0-1-1, even.  That is not to say that the Caps, or at least some of them, have not seen Hodgson before.  He was a member of the Manitoba Moose team that lost to the Hershey Bears in the 2009 Calder Cup final, a Bears team that included John Carlson, Karl Alzner, Jay Beagle, and Michal Neuvirth from the current Caps squad.  Hodgson was 1-2-3, plus-2 in five games against the Bears in that final.

The difficulty the Sabres have had so far is that their scoring has been so top-heavy.  They have only three players with more than one goal and only four players with more than one point.  And the Sabres have another problem – poor finishes.  Through four games Buffalo has yet to allow a goal in the first period.  The flip side of that is the fact that they have allowed six second period goals and six third period goals.  Here is how the two teams fared last season, numbers-wise…

1.  Only two teams have taken more minor penalties so far than the Sabres; only four teams have found themselves shorthanded more often (before Saturday’s games).  Three Sabres are in the top 11 in minor penalties taken so far (Tyler Myers, Thomas Vanek, and Patrick Kaleta, all with four).

2.  Those three three-goal scorers for the Sabres – Thomas Vanek, Cody Hodgson, and Jason Pominville – they have accounted for 53 of the 135 shots on goal taken by the team, leaving 82 shots for the other 16 skaters that have taken the ice for the Sabres over four games.  Buffalo is not generating much in the way of balanced pressure.

3.  If you had Jason Pominville as the Sabre with the most career goals against the Caps, you would be wrong.  Ditto if you had Thomas Vanek.  Or even Drew Stafford.  The Sabre with the most career goals against the Caps is Jochen Hecht with 11 in 34 career games.  Here is the thing, though.  If Vanek cannot go in this one, that might put additional pressure on Stafford and Hecht, neither of whom have a goal yet this season.  In fact, between them they have but one point (Stafford).

4.  Buffalo’s defensemen have more penalties (ten) than points (eight).  Christian Ehrhoff is the only Sabre blueliner with more than one point, and Tyler Myers has the only goal registered by the defense so far.

5.  A missing or otherwise less-than-full strength Thomas Vanek could have repercussions on the power play for the Sabres.  He has two of the four Buffalo power play goals through four games and has assists on the other two.

  

1.  No team has spent more time on special teams than have the Caps so far (before Saturday’s games).  Through four games the Caps have spent 68:19 either on the power play or killing penalties, more than a full game’s worth of minutes.

2.  Washington has not yet led at an intermission this season.  They have been tied once and trailed three times at the second intermission.  There have been too many holes out of which they have had to dig.

3.  The Caps have hardly been lights-out on the power play (or perhaps they have, considering the lack of red lights going on), but Mike Ribeiro has had a hand in each of the three Caps power play goals to date with a goal and two assists.  On the other hand, he has only one goal in 25 career games played against Buffalo, his lowest goal total against any team except the Caps (one in 18 games).

4.  Washington is currently in the middle of the pack in fighting majors so far with three, but Matt Hendricks has all of them.  Only Columbus’ Jared Boll has more (four).

5.  The Caps have already dressed 22 skaters in games, and that does not include Brooks Laich, who remains injured.  They are a long way from the 35 skaters they dressed for a season twice since the 2004-2005 lockout, but there has been some roster shuffling to start the season.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Buffalo:  Ryan Miller

If Buffalo is stuck in neutral at the moment, it is not a product of the play of goaltender Ryan Miller.  Now in his tenth season in the NHL, Miller has stopped 100 of 105 shots so far this season.  His .952 save percentage ranks sixth among NHL goalies, while his 1.67 goals against average ranks sixth.  In 23 career appearances against the Caps he is 13-9-0, 2.45, .919, with three shutouts.  If anything, though, he has suffered from lack of support in his recent history against Washington.  Over the last four seasons he has a mediocre 6-7-0 win-loss record, despite a 2.24 goals against average and a .930 save percentage.

Washington:  Matt Hendricks

Washington might be suffering an effort deficit so far this season, but Matt Hendricks has not been a part of it.  He has only one point so far, but he has been using whatever tools he has to try to send a charge through his teammates.  Unfortunately, those tools have too often been his hands used in anger.  He has three fights in four games.  He also has the only instance of a Capital scoring the first goal of the game this season, recorded in a 4-2 loss to Winnipeg in the home opener.  Hendricks is pulling more than his share of the weight so far, and he hasn’t even paralyzed anyone yet.  His effort is admirable, but if his is the top end on the effort meter on this roster, the Caps have problems.  More players need to rise to his compete level. 

Keys:

1.  Be quick on the draw.  Cody Hodgson, Tyler Ennis, and Jochen Hecht have taken the bulk of faceoffs for the Sabres through four games.  None of them have won as many as 40 percent of their draws.  The Sabres are dead last in the league in faceoff winning percentage, barely 40 percent as a team.  The Caps need to find a way to exploit this shortcoming.

2.  Kill, kill, kill!  The Sabres went 3-for-6 on the power play in their season opener against Philadelphia, a 5-2 win.  Since then they are 1-for-13, including 0-for-9 on the road.  The Caps have not been especially bad at even strength, but the only thing their penalty killing is killing at the moment is their chances to win.  The Caps need to extend the Sabres’ man-advantage futility.

3.   Make ‘em pay.  On the other side of special teams, Buffalo is playing with a new-found edge so far this season.  Last year the Sabres tied for the 14^th fewest penalty minutes in the league.  So far this season only three teams are averaging more penalty minutes per game than Buffalo.  The difference is ten minutes per game from last season to this one.  If Buffalo is to try taking liberties with the Caps, the Caps are going to have to answer, preferably on the power play.

In the end, the Caps are not yet taking advantage of home cooking, and we are getting to historical levels of futility as far as the franchise’s history is concerned.  The Caps have not gone 0-3-0 at home in more than 30 years.  They are one of only three teams in the East without a home win so far, and one of them – Pittsburgh – has played only one home game.  Getting a point on the road against a good team playing well, as was the case against New Jersey on Friday, is an acceptable outcome in most cases.  Developing a habit of losing at home with distressing regularity is not.  Early as it is, this might not be a “must” win game for the Caps.  But it is a “should” win, a “they had better” win, in fact. 

The Caps have to establish a foothold from which they can build a string of successes, and here is why.  They are three points out of a playoff spot with 45 games to play.  You might not think this is significant, but consider that last season Buffalo was four points out of a playoff spot with 45 games to play.  They finished the season three points out of a playoff spot.  In fact, based on the standings on that day on which the Sabres were four points back with 45 games to play, only two teams not already in the top eight climbed into the playoff eligible group by year end – Washington and Ottawa.  And both teams were only one point back on that day in late December 2011.  The Capitals do not have all the time in the world.

Capitals 3 – Sabres 2

A ONE-point night -- Devils 3 - Capitals 2 (OT)

Baby steps.

OK, baby step.  The Caps picked up a standings point last night – the last team in the NHL to do so – in a 3-2 overtime loss to the New Jersey Devils in Newark.

Whether one looks at it in the context of the three games that were played by the Caps before this one, or looking at this game on its own terms, this was a well-earned point.  Coming from two goals down with less than ten minutes left in regulation, on the road, against a team that has not yet allowed an even strength goal, with the top line doing little (again, although it was hard to identify a top line), the Caps scratched back to tie the game late to secure the point before falling in the extra session.

The game itself was rather even in the nature of its production in the regulation portion of the contest.  Both goaltenders gave up goals they might like to have back.  For the Caps, Michal Neuvirth looked square to a shot by Stephen Gionta off a fine feed by Jacob Josefson, but was not able to turn the puck aside as it sped past his right pad for the game's first goal. 

On the other hand, there was Martin Brodeur looking like a piece of performance art (Flamingo in Goalie Pads) as a flutterer of a shot by Mike Green snuck under his right arm to tie the game with less than three minutes in regulation.

In between, the goalies allowed goals on shots that gave them no chance for a save, both coming on 5-on-3 power plays.  New Jersey capitalized first when a blast by Marek Zidlicky cuffed David Clarkson in front, adjusting the angle of the shot enough to prevent Neuvirth from being able to avoid a rebound with his pad save.  The puck ended up on the stick of Patrik Elias alone on Neuvirth’s left, and Elias buried the puck in the net before Neuvirth could recover.

With the score 2-0, in favor of the Devils midway through the third period, it was the Caps’ chance to expose the Devils on a 5-on-3, this time scoring as a result of fine passing that broke down the Devils’ defense deep.  It started from the right point when Mike Green corralled a failed clear by Brodeur along the wall.  Green walked out from there and spotted Joel Ward at the goal line extended to Brodeur’s right.  Ward received the pass, and as Brodeur worked his way over to cover the near post, Ward slid the puck just past Brodeur’s stick across the crease to Mike Ribeiro, standing alone at the bottom of the right wing faceoff circle.  Ribeiro snapped the puck just past the stick of a lunging Anton Volchenkov and into the net to halve the Devils’ lead before Green's game-tying goal.

But then there was overtime, and it was a case of their Russian converting and the Caps’ Russian not.  It turned out to be on the same play.  Alex Ovechkin was trying to carry the puck into the New Jersey end on a rush, but face-planted at the Devils’ blue line, giving up the puck.  With the open ice in a 4-on-4 overtime situation the Devils had clear ice to rush the puck up into the Caps’ end.  Kovalchuk started the game-winning play when he drop-passed the puck to Marek Zidlicky.  From there Zidlicky hit Patrick Elias with a pass at the left wing faceoff dot.  Elias tried to feed Andy Greene for a one-timer at the Caps’ door-step, but Greene whiffed on the feed.  The puck came back around to Zidlicky, who faked a shot and passed to Kovalchuk at the bottom of the left wing circle.  Neuvirth, perhaps anticipating the shot from Zidlicky, had no chance to recover and hug the near post, and Kovalchuk buried the puck behind Neuvirth for the win.

Other stuff…

-  The experiment in using Alex Ovechkin on penalty kills might be over, or at least in hiatus.  He received no shorthanded ice time in this one despite the fact that the Caps skated 9:03 in shorthanded ice time.

-  Speaking of special teams ice time, the Caps had 12:19 in eight power plays, of which they converted one, a 5-on-3 chance after the Devils were whistled for five minor penalties in the space of 5:13.  Three of those penalties were bench minors, two of them for too many men on the ice (the other for abuse of officials).  It was not necessarily a case of the Caps being good in converting a 5-on-3 as much as it was the Devils’ penalty killers being exhausted.

-  The Caps were outshot, 8-1, in overtime.  That is a lot, but five of those shots came on a power play (penalty to Mike Green for interference).  Mike Ribeiro had the only shot on goal for the Caps in the extra session.

-  Don’t know what to make of this.  Alex Ovechkin still leads the team in shots on goal with 13 (he had only two in this game, though), but defensemen Mike Green and John Carlson are next in line along with Wojtek Wolski with 12 apiece.

-  Eric Fehr got the Mathieu Perreault minutes in this one (Perreault being scratched).  One shot, one hit, one blocked shot.

-  About those two shots on goal for Ovechkin.  He had 10:28 in power play ice time, one shot on goal.  He simply has to find a way to manufacture more shots with that much opportunity.  But maybe it was some passive-aggressive thing.  He took his first shift at the 17-second mark on a line with Joey Crabb and Jay Beagle.  Now, you might say that any line with Ovechkin on it is the top line, but this isn’t the top line.

-  As a group the Caps had only five power play shots on goal.

-  Mike Green had a whale of a numbers line… a goal, an assist, two points, four shots on goal, five other shot attempts, three blocked shots, and more than 31 minutes of ice time.  And, of the 17 goals scored against the Caps so far this season, he has been on the ice for only two of them. 

-  Going 5-for-6 on the penalty kill (allowing a goal on a 5-on-3 chance) can be looked at as progress, but the Caps are still 16-for-24 (66.7 percent).  They are going to need a few shutouts just to return to respectability.

-  John Carlson was on ice for all three New Jersey goals.  No player in the league has been on ice for more goals against (12) than Carlson, and he has been on ice for three more goals than the next defenseman in line.

In the end, you have to start somewhere, and this qualifies as a start.  But wins are now the object of the exercise.  Their next opponent – the Buffalo Sabres – will come to Washington on Sunday carrying a two-game losing streak in their carry-on baggage.  Then they head to Ottawa, losers to Tampa Bay in their last outing and having to take on an irritable Penguins team (losers of their own last two games) before hosting the Caps.  The opportunity is knocking.  If the Caps do not answer the door, things are going to look very grim, very quickly in terms of success this season.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 4: Washington at New Jersey, January 25th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take their show on the road on Friday for the back half of a back-to-back set of games, visiting the New Jersey Devils at Prudential Center…”The Rock”…”The Newark Palace”… 

“The Empty Seat Convention”

I suppose you’re right, Fearless.  The Devils sold out their home opener this season in their only home game to date.  However, they ranked 24^th in the NHL in attendance last season (22^nd in capacity filled).  That for a team that would be a Stanley Cup finalist. And it is not as if this is a recent development.  The Devils have not ranked higher than 20^th in attendance since moving to their new digs in 2007.

Too bad, too, because with their 3-0 win over the Philadelphia Flyers in their home opener the Devils are 127-65-14 at Prudential Center since it opened for hockey.  That includes a 31-17-4 home record last season, including playoff games.  Overall, the Devils didn’t look like a Stanley Cup contender for much of the 2011-2012 season – they finished fourth in the Atlantic Division and sixth in the Eastern Conference.  But the Atlantic was the toughest division in the NHL last season.  Four teams, including the Devils, finished in the top six in the East and all of them with more than 100 standings points.

The Devils also closed with a rush in the regular season, going 12-4-1 in their last 17 games, winning their last six contests.  And it just so happened that all four of their regulation losses in those last 17 games were against Atlantic Division opponents (they were 7-0-1 outside of the Atlantic).

The Devils have a well-earned reputation for defensive prowess, but they are not completely offensively challenged.  New Jersey had three 30-goal scorers last season.  Their problem is that one of them (Zach Parise) took the money and ran to Minnesota, another one of them (David Clarkson) might owe much of his production to the guy who now stands behind the Capitals’ bench, and the other is Russian (Ilya Kovalchuk)…it’s an “enigmatic” thing.

In fact, of the Devils’  top five goal scorers from last season, accounting for 145 of the team’s 216 goals, two of them – Parise and Petr Sykora (and their combined 52 goals) are no longer with the club.  With Patrik Elias (and his 26 goals last year) having turned a year older at 36, and Adam Henrique is 7-10 days away from returning to the lineup after thumb surgery, where is the scoring coming from?

Well, they will get Travis Zajac back for what the Devils hope will be a full and healthy season.  2011-2012 was neither for Zajac, who missed all but 15 games with an Achilles tendon injury.  Zajac is a former 25-goal scorer (in 2009-2010).  He is off to a good start with a goal in each of the Devils’ first two games.  In 21 career games against the Caps he is 3-12-15, plus-3.

One thing that having a volume of high goal scorers last season did was allow the defense to be involved in the scoring for the Devils.  It was not so much goal scoring (only Mark Fayne had more than two goals, and he led the group with only four), but four defensemen had at least ten points with Marek Zidlicky adding eight more in only 22 games after arriving in trade from Minnesota.  So far this season the Devils’ blue line has a total of only three points (all assists), but they must be doing something right at the other end since the team has allowed only one goal in 120 minutes of hockey so far.

Here is how the Devils and Caps compare in their numbers from last season…

1.  Part of defense is avoidance – of shots on goal, that is.  In two games the Devils have allowed a total of only 43 shots on goal.  They have blocked a total of 25.  They have allowed only 30 shots on goal at even strength (no goals).  The tradition, it seems (at least so far), lives on.

2.  Ilya Kovalchuk has a goal in two games.  This not news.  That his goal is a shorthanded one might be.  Except that he did have three shorties last season (doubling at the time his career total).  Some goal scorers, it seems, can be made dangerous on the penalty kill.  And it is not as if the Devils’ penalty kill suffered much last season.  They led the NHL in penalty killing.

3.  We noted that David Clarkson might have owed much of his goal scoring improvement to his former assistant coach, Adam Oates.  Maybe the advice stuck.  He has two goals in two games.  And it has not tamed his feistiness.  He has one of the NHL’s 25 fights so far this season (before Thursday night’s games), a third-period bout against Wayne Simmonds of the Flyers in the Devils’ 3-0 win over Philadelphia on Tuesday.

4.  New Jersey can play defense, but at least last season they could play “comeback,” too.  Only two teams had a better winning percentage when allowing the first goal, and only two teams had a better winning percentage when trailing after the first period.

5.  Perhaps going hand-in-glove with the last item, the Devils had the second-best winning percentage in one-goal games last year.  Teams might score on them first, but they did not often seem to get much more.

1. The Caps have 92 wins over the Devils in franchise history.  That is more wins than over any of the other 31 franchises they have played against except the New York Rangers (93 wins).

2.  Coming into this game the Caps are the only team without a standings point.  This the longest they have gone into a season without having earned a standings point since starting the season with six straight losses in the 1993-1994 season.  The Caps did finish that season 39-29-10 for a record of 39-35-10, third in the Atlantic Division on their way to their only playoff series win over the Pittsburgh Penguins.

3.  Alex Ovechkin has now gone three games without a goal, his longest drought to start a season in his career.  He is tied for 194^th in points with one.  But it’s early…right?

4.  Last season the Caps held their own against the Atlantic Division, going 8-8-4.  Against the Devils they were 1-1-2, outscored 11-8 (not including trick shots allowed).  The Caps lost the last three games in the 2011-2012 season series.

5.  OK, so who is it going to be in goal? Michal Neuvirth allowed four goals on 22 shots last night against Montreal, but he is 4-1-2, 1.96, .930 with one shutout in seven career appearances against the Devils.  Meanwhile, Braden Holtby has but one career appearance against New Jersey, allowing five goals on 23 shots in a 5-0 loss to the Devils in New Jersey on November 22, 2010.  He was sent down to Hershey following that game.  It might be worth noting that since that game against the Devils, Holtby is 12-4-2, 2.01, .934 with three shutouts in 18 regular season appearances.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: Martin Brodeur

The old man just keeps going, it seems.  Yes, he might be the beneficiary of good play in front of him (see the discussion of shots allowed above), but he is still the one having to stop those shots, too.  The Caps have those 94 wins in 186 regular season games, all-time, against the Devils, but they have won only 17 of 68 decisions against Brodeur.  However, he is 1-5-0 in his last six decisions against the Caps with a 4.03 goals against average and a .841 save percentage.  He has not beaten the Caps in regulation since earning a 5-2 decision in Washington on November 14, 2009.  Maybe it’s a “red” thing…

“I was screened a bit [on John Carlson’s goal in an October 2010 contest], but it was far out. I should have had a better look at it. I just kind of lost it a sea of red there… any time they shot the puck high it was a big adventure out there because we’re not used to playing in a building like that.”

Washington: Mathieu Perreault

Mathieu Perreault was unhappy with his playing time in the Caps’ first two game, skating a total of 8:50 in ice time.  He voiced his displeasure and had a talk with head coach and general manager after the loss to Winnipeg on Tuesday.  He was in the starting lineup against the Montreal Canadiens on Thursday on a line with Joel Ward and Jason Chimera, and given more ice (12:15).  It did not make much of a difference for the Caps – they lost, 4-1 – or for Perreault, who finished minus-1 with a penalty in those 12-plus minutes.  He did have three shot attempts (more than Mike Ribeiro and only one fewer than Nicklas Backstrom) and won six of nine faceoffs.  Is this the beginning of a longer look at Perreault?  It couldn’t hurt at the moment.

Keys:

1.  Be possessed of…possession.  The Caps have six goals so far this season, none of them by a first line player (although Matt Hendricks did score one while playing along side Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin).  It is tough to score without the puck.  In two games so far the Caps are 29-for-61 on offensive zone faceoffs (47.5%), Backstrom is 10-for-25 (40.0%).  If the first line is wasting 10-15 seconds trying to recover possession of the puck, it eats up a lot of their shift.  New Jersey is 28^th in faceoffs so far. Yes, it is only two games, but they were 29^th in draws last year, too.

2.  Five by Five at Five on Five.  The term “five by five” applies to the quality of communication.  So far, precious little of it seems to be of much quality on the ice at five-on-five.  Through their first three games the Caps had four even strength goals on 72 shots (5.6 percent).  They have been outscored 7-4 at even strength so far.  Penalty killing has to improve, but this even strength performance will have to improve, too.

3.   Start fast.  New Jersey has not scored a lot of goals in the first period – only two in two games, in fact.  But they have allowed none.  They have not allowed any goals in the second period, either.  They are one of four teams that has not trailed at either intermission this season.  Make them show what they can do when they have to play catch-up.

In the end, let’s face it.  Right now, the Caps stink.  Outscored 14-6, 61.1 percent on the power play, a top line that does not yet have a goal. That is, unless you count Wojtek Wolski, who played on the top line Thursday, but recorded his goal while on the second line; or Matt Hendricks, who isn’t a first liner, but got his goal when he took a turn on that line.  The Caps have six goals on 95 shots – a 6.3 percent shooting percentage.  The Caps can’t kill penalties, and they can’t shoot straight.  Small wonder that they haven’t even made games close, the three decisions being of two goals and twice by three goals.  And now they get a team that can kill penalties (90 percent so far) and can shoot straight enough to win.  What could go wrong?

Capitals 2 – Devils 1

A NO-point night -- Game 3: Canadiens 4 - Capitals 1

Welcome to Verizon Center, the Lourdes of F Street, where NHL teams from all over North America come for the healing ice.  Where the lame and the infirm are healed, where power plays are raised, where losing streaks are turned miraculously into wins.

Last night the Montreal Canadiens took of the healing ice and skated away with a 4-1 win over the Washington Capitals, getting two power play goals in the space of 54 seconds on their way to a four-goal second period.  End of game.

The Caps are now 11-for-18 on the penalty kill (61.1 percent).

The Caps are now the only team in the NHL without a standings point.

The Caps are now dead last in the NHL.

There is nowhere to go but up...

...right?

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 3: Montreal at Washington, January 24th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their brief two-game home stand when the Montreal Canadiens visit Thursday night.  The Habs, meanwhile, take their act on the road for the first time this season.

From the 1915-1916 through the 1992-1993 season – 78 years, inclusive -- the Canadiens won 24 Stanley Cups, almost one every three years.  The longest they went without one in that run was 12 years, from the 1931-1932 season through the 1942-1943 season, a period in which they won only one playoff series.

But since that 24th Stanley Cup in 1993, the Canadiens – the most storied franchise in the history of the NHL – has failed to win the chalice.  The streak is 18 seasons, and counting.  Over those 18 seasons they missed the playoffs seven times, equaling the total number of times they missed the post season dating back to the 1920-1921 season through 1992-1993.  In the last 18 seasons they have won a total of six playoff series (the Caps have won seven).  They have advanced as far as the conference finals once, losing in five games to the Philadelphia Flyers in 2009-2010.

These clearly are not your father’s Canadiens. 

Last season the Habs finished 15^th and last in the Eastern Conference, the only time the Canadiens finished last in the conference since there have been conferences in the NHL.  In a way their finish was surprising. They were poor, but not extraordinarily so on offense, finishing tied with Edmonton for 19^th in scoring offense.  They were a reasonably effective defensive team, finishing 11^th in scoring defense.  Their 5-on-5 play was in the middle third of the league (18^th, wedged between the Stanley Cup finalists Los Angeles in 17^th and New Jersey in 19^th).  Their penalty kill was very efficient, finishing 2^nd overall.

Their problem was a combination of a ghastly power play (28^th in efficiency despite finishing third in total power play opportunities) and the worst record in the league in one-goal games. This was a team that was just good enough to lose and just good enough to finish 15^th but only six points out of tenth place in the East.  Here is how their numbers from last season stack up with the Caps…

1.  This is a team that returns two 30-plus goal scorers from last season – Max Pacioretty (33) and Erik Cole (35), both setting career highs.  Neither has a goal in the two games played thus far by the Canadiens, nor do either have a point.  It has not been for lack of trying, at least in Pacioretty’s case.  He leads the team with eight shots on goal.

2.  All eyes are on Alex Galchenyuk, the pride of Milwaukee.  OK, he and his family moved to Europe when he was four (his father was a hockey player who skated for the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals when Alex was born, then later played in Europe).  He was the Habs’ first and the league’s third overall pick in the 2012 entry draft largely on the basis of a 2010-2011 year with Sarnia in the Ontario Hockey League in which he compiled 31 goals in 68 games.  He missed all but two regular season games with a knee injury in 2011-2012 but did return to the playoffs to record two goals in six games.  He was 2-6-8, plus-2 in seven games for the champion Team USA at the world junior championship tournament this past January.  He notched his first NHL goal in his last outing, getting the fourth goal in a 4-1 Montreal win over Florida earlier this week.

3.  Carey Price is a talented young goaltender.  Not that you would know it from his career statistics against the Caps.  In 12 career appearances against Washington he is 3-6-3, 3.11, .898.  That includes losses in both of his appearances last year, a 3-0 loss on January 18^th in Washington and a 4-1 loss at Bell Centre in Montreal on February 24^th.  His last win over the Caps came in a 3-2 Gimmick win in Washington on February 1, 2011.

4.  Montreal had one other problem that contributed to their dismal finish last season.  They had few tricks up their sleeves in the Gimmick.  Their 12 losses in the beauty competition was the most of any team in the league last season.  They had only 13 goals in 17 shootouts, five of those by David Desharnais.

5.  Michel Therrien is in his second stint as bench boss for the Canadiens.  From 2000-2001 through 2002-2003, when he was relieved after 46 games, he compiled a record of 77-77-13 with an additional 23 ties.  He was 6-6 in the 2001-2002 playoffs, falling to Carolina in the second round after dumping Boston in the opening round.  In between his Montreal stays he spent parts of four seasons in Pittsburgh with a record of 135-105-32, taking the Penguins to the Stanley Cup finals in 2008 (losing to Detroit) before being relieved in favor of Dan Bylsma in 2008-2009, who took that Penguins team to the Stanley Cup.

1.  Tied for last in scoring defense… 24^th in 5-on-5 play… 27^th in penalty killing… tied for 26^th in shots on goal allowed… tied for 27^th in blocked shots… 26^th in faceoff winning percentage.  Sounds very “0-and-2-ish” to us.

2.  They are 0-1-0 when scoring first, 0-1-0 when trailing first… they have been outscored in the first period of games, outscored in the last period of games (oh yeah, and the period in the middle, too)… yup, “0-and-2-ish.”

3.  Two games is, to be obvious, a small universe of data, but think on this.  If your top two lines are Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Marcus Johansson; and Mike Ribeiro, Troy Brouwer, and Wojtek Wolski, then the scoring lines have… two of the five goals scored… 28 of 64 shots on goal… one power play goal among them… 24 of the 44 penalty minutes recorded… and are a combined minus-6.  Too, too “0-and-2-ish.”

4.  Braden Holtby will sit for this one in favor of Michal Neuvirth in goal.  One might question the wisdom of that, even if Holtby has been shaky early.  After all, in two career appearances against the Canadiens, Holtby is 2-0-0, 1.00, .955, with one shutout.  Then you look at Neuvirth and see that he is 4-1-0, 1.82, .939, with one shutout in six career appearances against Montreal.

5.  OK, who had Mike Ribeiro in the top five in penalty minutes as of Tuesday’s games?  Two years ago he had a total of 28 PIMs in 82 games played.  Mouthing off will do that, even with a dumb as rocks official listening.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Montreal: Andrei Markov

The 12-year veteran played in only 65 of 246 games over three seasons coming into this year, owing primarily to ankle and knee injuries.  In the first four seasons coming out of the 2004-2005 lockout Markov averaged 11-43-54, plus-4, per season, his point totals increasing in each one.  Then the injuries hit, but even his 7-33-40, plus-9 in those last 65 games coming into this season suggest a productive player (40 points would have placed him in the top-20 in scoring among defensemen).  His two goals in Montreal’s 4-1 win over Florida on Tuesday suggest he might be ready to pick up where he left off before the physical problems. Strangely, perhaps, Markov has never scored a goal against the Caps in 32 career games.  He does have 17 assists, though and is a plus-13.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin has no goals in two games so far this season.  It might seem early to raise that point, but the fact is that he has never gone the first three games of the season without scoring a goal.  Frankly, the Caps could use the help.  His shot totals are not of particular concern by itself (eight in two games), but he appears to be struggling with the concept of playing on the right side. His movement is neither fluid nor instinctual, which does raise a point about his shooting.  He has only three shots on goal so far at even strength, five on the power play where he does most of his work from the customary left side.  Add to this that he is getting almost three minutes a game killing penalties (sixth among forwards), and it is a fair amount of new stuff to incorporate.  Ovechkin’s bread and butter is scoring, and whether it comes from the right or the left side; at even strength or on special teams, he is going to have to start doing it.

Keys:

1.  Let ‘em score first.  Yeah, yeah, you probably think we have lost our minds, given that the NHL rewards teams that score first.  However, Montreal was dead last in winning percentage in games in which they scored first last season, the only club with a winning percentage below .500.  The point is that leads might not be safe for the Habs.  Keep pressing if things start badly.

2.  Pound on ‘em.  Montreal does not have an especially big set of forwards.  Only Erik Cole, Travis Moen, and Rene Bourque top 200 pounds.  The Caps need to make them pay for their physical shortcomings.

3.  Feel the need for speed.  Three of the six defensemen who have dressed for Montreal this season are 34 or older (Markov, Tomas Kaberle, and Francis Bouillon).  Perhaps we will see if the Caps have taken some of the more up-tempo play to heart and use it against the creaky old-timers.

In the end, 0-and-3 is not the end of the world, but after playing Montreal the Caps head to New Jersey the next night, then they get the pesky Buffalo Sabres before heading to Canada for a road trip.  After that it is Philadelphia followed by two games against the Penguins sandwiching a visit by Toronto.  The Caps could find themselves in a deep hole barely ten games into the season.  That would be a stiff challenge to overcome in an 82-game season.  In a 48-game season it would border on disaster.  That is why this game against a thoroughly beatable opponent is important, one in which the Caps should thoroughly beat their opponent.

Capitals 4 – Canadiens 1

A NO-point night -- Game 2: Jets 4 - Capitals 2

When the Washington Capitals started the 1995 season after a lengthy lockout, they did so by stumbling out of the gate, tying and losing their first two games on their way to a 3-10-5 start.  They righted the ship (due in no small part to a hot rookie goaltender by the name of Jim Carey) to earn a playoff spot, but things were touch-and-go for quite a while in that abbreviated season.

The Caps once again have stubbed their toe on the door jamb as they get their 2013 season underway.  After dropping a 6-3 decision to Tampa Bay on Saturday the Caps made it 0-for-2 with a 4-2 loss to the Winnipeg Jets in their home opener.  It was the first loss in a home opener since the Los Angeles Kings beat them in the 2000-2001 home opener.
 

It looked good early for the Caps when Matt Hendricks finished a nice passing play all around.  The play began with Alex Ovechkin turning out of the left wing circle in the Jets' end where he spotted Nicklas Backstrom sliding into the right wing circle.  Backstrom spied Hendricks set up in front and snapped the puck to the Winnipeg net where Hendricks had only to redirect it (with his right foot it turned out) past goalie Ondrej Pavelec for the game’s first goal.

By the time the Caps got their second goal, though, things had taken a turn.  Winnipeg would take the lead into the first intermission on goals by Evander Kane and Andrew Ladd, both on power plays.  Kane’s goal was a real momentum stopper, a shot from the goal line that looked to tick of the heel of John Carlson’s skate before hitting the inside of goalie Braden Holtby’s right skate and caroming in.

The Jets added even strength goals by Blake Wheeler and Jim Slater in the second period to double the entire goal output they achieved in their first two games.  For all intents and purposes the competitive portion of the game was over after the 40 minutes with the Jets holding a 4-1 lead.

Troy Brouwer added a power play goal of his own with 1:16 left, but it far too little, far too late for the Caps, who sank to 0-2-0 with the likes of the New York Rangers and Carolina Hurricanes, and within whispering distance of last place in the East, now held by the 0-3-0 Philadelphia Flyers.

Other stuff…

-  Most folks knew and understood that the power play might take some time to iron out.  At 2-for-8 so far, that might be considered a rather pleasant surprise.  But the penalty kill smells like a fish freezer that had the power go out for a week. Giving up power play goals on their first two shorthanded situations in this game left the Caps 4-for-9 on the penalty kill to start the season.  Killing off the last three shorthanded situations left them 7-for-12 after two games, a 58.3 percent kill rate.  It might surprise you to know that 58.3 percent is not the worst in the league (it is 27th), but it is not a place the Caps can occupy for any length of time and have any hope of playing in the post season.

-  Top line…13 shot attempts, six shots on goal, no goals, two points (and those came with Matt Hendricks, not Marcus Johansson skating with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom).  This cannot become a recurring theme.

-- That brings us to young Mr. Johansson.  It is early, but there are already a couple of players who really need to step their games up (pretty much all of them do, but there are some outstanding examples).  Marcus Johansson skated only 10:30 last night with no shot attempts and two giveaways.  He had one shift in the third period.  The Caps have a shortage of scoring wingers, and he has to step up to be one of them.  In 27:45 of ice time Johansson has one shot attempt, one shot on goal.  He cannot be a passenger on the top line. He is not the sort of player to dig pucks out of trouble and start plays as a product of that.  He is not the playmaker on that line.  Perhaps he is ill suited to playing with Ovechkin and Backstrom, but if it is just a case of developing chemistry, the chemical reaction needs to be more… exothermic.

-- The Caps have allowed ten goals so far this season.  Nicklas Backstrom has been on ice for half of them.  The Caps have allowed five power play goals so far.  John Carlson has been on ice for four of them.  They might not be the root cause of the defensive problems, but those are not numbers one wants attached to their 2013 season resume, either.

-- There are folks who do not attach a lot of significance to faceoffs.  But here’s the deal.  The scoring line forwards on this team (Nicklas Backstrom, Mike Ribeiro, Troy Brouwer) are a combined 36-for-87 (41.4 percent).  Teams cannot score without the puck.  And wasting offensive players’ shifts with having to hunt down the puck after losing faceoffs does not bode well for scoring totals.  Silver lining?  They were a combined 8-for-15 in the offensive zone in this game.

-- Mike Green got a ton of ice time again – 27:35.  In two games he has been on the ice for 94:32 and has seen only two goals scored against while on ice (ok, that’s two of five even strength goals).

-- Mathieu Perreault skated a total of 4:58 in ice time last night, bringing his total to 8:50 in his two games.  The total ice time is less than 16 of the other 17 skaters recorded last night.  One has to think Eric Fehr is going to get a sweater sooner rather than later.

-- Braden Holtby looks to be playing at about 95 percent of NHL speed.  And that is quite enough to compile a 5.05 goals against average and a .863 save percentage.  His .706 save percentage on the penalty kill is 36^th of 43 goalies having played so far.  We’ll chalk that up to its being early…right?

In the end, the Caps are not very good at the moment.  One can rationalize this away by saying it’s early, new coach, new systems, blah blah blah.  It has to stop…soon.  Or this season can get away from them by Presidents Day.  This is not 1995 when there were no Bettman points.  Teams earning those points late might have enough of a buffer to hold off a charging Caps team late that is trying to climb out of a hole.

Moral?... Stop digging!

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 2: Winnipeg at Washington, January 22nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals open the home portion of their season this evening as they host the Winnipeg Jets.  The Jets will be coming to Washington fresh off spending Inauguration Day in … what the… Cheerless, what gives with the tuxedo?

“I was out last night celebrating.”

Celebrating?

“Yeah, I was at the Official I-blog-rual Ball.”

You mean, “Inaugural Ball?”

“No, I-BLOG-ural Ball…it was a chance for bloggers of all stripes to get together to celebrate I-blog-uration Day.  I’m surprised you didn’t get an invitation.”

Must have been lost in the mail.  Meet any celebrity bloggers?

“Oh, yeah…that guy who writes ‘The Daily Kuz.’”

You mean Markos Moulitsas, who started “The Daily KOS?”

“No, the guy who started ‘The Daily Kuz’… he writes about when Evgeny Kuznetsov might come over to join the Caps.  Oh, and there was the ‘The Hullington Post.’”

Isn’t that the “The Huffington Post” and Arianna Huffington?

“No, Mister Wizard… ‘The Hullington Post’…"

OK, I got nothing here.

“It was started by this guy who posts some of the best quotes from hockey legend Brett Hull.”

I’m guessing he doesn’t lack for material.

“Oh, and ‘Crooks and Liars’ tried to crash the party.”

You mean the…

“Yeah, the NHL owners…”

Well, the celebrations are over, the private jets are whisking celebrities back from whence they came, the pols are getting back to doing whatever it is they do, and it’s time for us to get back to the long hard slog that is the NHL season.  Here in Game 2 the Caps will try to record their first win of the season at the expense of the Winnipeg Jets.  The Caps were 2-2-2 against the Jets last season, including a 1-0-2 record at home.  Five of the six games in the 2011-2012 season series were one-goal decisions, three of them requiring extra time to finish.

The Jets’ inaugural season in Winnipeg after spending 11 seasons as the Atlanta Thrashers was a rousing success off the ice.  The Jets sold out all of their 15,004 seats for each of their 41 home dates, and MTS Centre was widely hailed as one of the loudest arenas in which to play for visitors. 

On the ice the Jets were a respectable 23-13-5 at home and had the eighth-highest scoring offense on home ice.  They had the second-best home power play conversion rate (22.0 percent).  Hockey was a hit in Winnipeg.

The road?  That was another story.  Only Tampa Bay and Carolina had fewer wins on the road than the Jets in the Eastern Conference.  Only the Lightning had fewer road standings points.  They tied Columbus for 28^th in scoring defense, giving up 3.46 goals per game.  The power play that was so effective at home dried up on the road, finishing tied with Phoenix for 28^th place at 12.7 percent.  The penalty kill was only marginally better away from MTS Centre, finishing 26^th at 78.0 percent.

Individually the Jets reflected their team performance.  At home they had five players with at least ten goals, led by Andrew Ladd with 18 home markers.  Seven players had at least 20 points, led by Blake Wheeler with 40 in 41 games at MTS Centre.  No Jet playing in at least half the club’s 41 home dates was a “minus” player.   Only Antti Miettinen was as low as “even.” 

On the road there was not as large a drop-off among individuals as one might expect, scoring-wise.  There were four players with at least ten goals, led by the 13 recorded by Evander Kane.  Five players had at least 20 points, led by Dustin Byfuglien with 26.  But those plus-minus numbers?  There were 16 players in minus territory for the season, including a minus-11 for Byfuglien in 31 road games.

And that brings us to the Jets’ defense and goaltending.  Ondrej Pavelec finished the year with a rather pedestrian 29-28-9 win-loss record with a 2.91 goals-against average and a .906 save percentage with four shutouts.  Breaking his win-loss record down, Pavelec was 19-12-4, 2.47, .917 with three shutouts at home, but on the road he was 10-16-5, 3.42, .895, with one shutout.  Part of the problem for him was shots faced.  At home he faced a high volume of shots (29.8 per 60 minutes), but the volume he faced on the road was not possible to translate into low goal totals (32.5 shots faced per 60 minutes).  Even if he was a .920 save percentage goalie, facing that volume of shots would have meant a 2.60 goals against average.

Last year the Jets were two entirely different teams depending on the color of jersey they wore.  In the polar night blue and white playing at MTS Centre they were a formidable team.  In their road whites, definitely less so.  That would seem to be their biggest challenge this year, to translate some of that home formula into wins on the road.  Here is the numbers breakdown for the two clubs...

1.  Winnipeg was five games over .500 and a playoff-eligible team as late as Game 67 last season (32-27-8 on March 7^th).  A 5-8-2 finish killed their chances.  It was a combination of having so few home games late (only six in their last 15 contests) and a poor record in them that helped do them in (2-3-1).

2.  Odd Winnipeg Stat… no team had fewer giveaways in road games last season than the Jets.  Now that might have been because they did not have the puck long enough to do much giving away, but still.

3.  Only two teams allowed more third period goals than the 91 allowed by Winnipeg last season (Columbus, NY Islanders), 21 more than the Caps allowed.

4.  Beware Evander Kane.  Kane has eight goals in 15 career games against the Caps, three in six games last season.  In two games so far this season Kane has 19 shot attempts, eight shots on goal, and no goals.  Pay attention, Caps.

5.  Winnipeg had the seventh highest number of shorthanded situations to kill off last season.  In two game so far they have had only four such situations with which to contend.  At the other end of the special teams scale the Jets scored on their first power play chance of the new season but are empty on their last nine power play opportunities, including one that carried into overtime in their 2-1 trick shot loss to Boston on Monday.

1.  No doubt the Caps will miss the 20 goals and 39 points Alexander Semin accumulated against the Jets/Thrashers over his career, but there is still Alex Ovechkin.  In 48 career games against Winnipeg/Atlanta he is 34-35-69, plus-6, including 14-13-27 on the power play.  He was 4-2-6, plus-2 in six games against the Jets last season.

2.  If Michal Neuvirth gets the call against Winnipeg, he has success upon which to draw.  He is 6-2-1, 2.74, .918 with one shutout in ten career appearances against the Jets.  Braden Holtby?  Not so much.  He has one career appearance against the Jets.  Well, against the Atlanta Thrashers, actually.  On November 19, 2010, Holtby got the start against the Thrashers and allowed three goals on five shots in nine minutes and change before being relieved by Neuvirth in what would be a 5-0 loss.

3.  In three home games against the Jets last season the Caps scored a total of nine goals.  Departed players Alexander Semin, Dennis Wideman, Jeff Halpern, and Mike Knuble went 2-7-9 in those three games.  It might help that Alex Ovechkin and Jason Chimera will be on hand, having each scored three goals in those three games last season.

4.  It might be worth noting on the other hand that only one returning Capital defenseman playing in this game recorded a point in any of those three home games against the Jets last season.  John Carlson had an assist on the first goal in a 4-3 win over Winnipeg on November 23^rd.  Dmitry Orlov also had one point over the three games last season, but he will not dress for this contest.

5.  The Caps allowed seven power play opportunities to the Tampa Bay Lightning in Saturday’s season opener.  Only twice last season did the Caps allow as many – eight opportunities for the Edmonton Oilers in a 2-1 loss that ended their seven-game winning streak to open the season (they allowed two power play goals), and seven for Montreal in a 3-0 shutout win.  Both instances, like that against Tampa Bay, came on the road.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Winnipeg: Olli Jokinen

Olli Jokinen has played in more the 1,100 games in the NHL, only six of them in the playoffs (with Calgary in 2009).  Winnipeg is hoping he can add to that total this season, and not with another team as a trading deadline asset to be moved (he joined the Jets last summer on a two-year/$9 million deal).  At one point in his career he was a durable player and a consistent point producer.  Over a six-season period from 2002-2003 through the 2008-2009 seasons he averaged 81 games played a year and had an average scoring line of 34-38-72.  Lately he has been just as durable, averaging those same 81 games a year over the past three seasons.  However, his scoring line is not what it was, averaging 18-37-55 over those same three seasons.  He did show improvement over those three seasons, though, from 15 to 23 goals and from 50 to 61 points.  If Winnipeg can get even last season’s numbers out of Jokinen (Winnipeg had no center with 50 points last season), they could be a playoff contender.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

If the Capitals are to do better this year than last, the power play is going to have to improve.  If the power play is to improve, Nicklas Backstrom is going to have to be a big part of it.  And that is today’s topic – Nicklas Backstrom’s power play performance.  In 2008-2009 Backstrom was 14-28-42 on the power play on his way to his only career 100-point season.  He followed that up with 11-26-37 in 2009-2010, then 4-18-22 and 3-16-19.  The 19 points last season came in only 42 games, so there was the hint of a rebound there (a 6-31-37 pace over 82 games).  In the opener against Tampa Bay the Caps were 1-for-4 on the man advantage, but that goal was scored by Joel Ward with Wojtek Wolski and Mike Ribeiro being the other forwards on the ice.  The Caps managed seven power play shots on goal for the game, Backstrom getting none of them.  There looked to be a bit much of the back-and-forth between Backstrom and Mike Green on the power play, leading to some standing around.  This is where the learning curve under Adam Oates might be steepest and most in need of ironing out quickly if the Caps are to contend for a playoff spot.  And Backstrom will be a big part of that, too.

Keys:

1.  Score first, score last, just make sure you don’t get passed.  Last season the Caps scored first in five of the six games against the Jets and managed only a 2-2-1 record in those games.  Part of the problem was that the Caps were outscored in the third period of those games by a combined 4-3.  The Caps need to do a better job closing teams out, certainly better than what was the case on Saturday when they allowed three goals to the Lightning to break what was a 3-3- tie after 40 minutes.

2.  Primary scoring.  One game does not a season make, but getting no points in the opener out of the top line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Marcus Johansson is not a formula for reliable success.  In fact, it was the first time in six seasons playing together that neither Ovechkin nor Backstrom had a point in the team’s season opener.  The Jets are a team that has not yet demonstrated an ability to defend well on the road (last night's effort notwithstanding).  These are the top weapons for the Caps.  They need to produce like it against this opponent.

3.  20-40-60.  The Jets are playing their third game in four days and will be playing the back half of a road back-to-back.  It would be nice to end the competitive portion of the game early, but if that is not in the cards, the Caps have to apply 60 minute pressure.  Even if this is Game 2 after a lengthy lockout (and lack of on-ice competition for a lot of players), the Caps should be the far more rested and ready team after having time off since Saturday.

In the end, the Caps cannot afford to lose games like this in a 48-game schedule.  The Jets are a division rival, the Caps get them at home having to fly in from Boston the night (or early morning) before, and the Caps have more talent at both ends of the ice.  The Jets played the Caps tough last season, but that might have been as much a function of a close-to-the vest style the Caps played under Dale Hunter than it was anything the Jets threw at the Caps.  Winnipeg is probably a somewhat better team defensively than is Tampa Bay, but that should not prevent the Caps from giving their fans something to cheer about tonight.

Capitals 5 – Jets 2