NHL Eastern Conference Quarterfinals -- Game 5: Capitals 2 - Rangers 1 (OT)

There will be another game at Verizon Center this season.

Oh, it might not be in this series, but there will be another home game.  The Washington Capitals saw to that last night with a 2-1 overtime win over the New York Rangers in Game 5 of their Eastern Conference quarterfinal series.

Mike Ribeiro sent Caps fans out into the night in a delirious state of mind when he swatted home a rebound of a Karl Alzner shot 9:24 into the extra session on a play that had the eerie look to it of another overtime playoff winner many years ago. 

The play started with Karl Alzner and Mike Green exchanging passes at the top of the Rangers’ zone.  Alzner fed the puck to Green at the right point, and Green fired a shot that took a bite out of Ranger defenseman Ryan McDonagh.  The puck ricocheted to the stick of Ranger Derick Brassard, but his weak clearing attempt was gloved down by Green, who slid the puck over to Alzner.  Brassard tried to jump out to block the shot Alzner was winding up for, but Alzner’s shot sailed past Brassard’s right leg.  The puck hit Troy Brouwer’s skate and deflected to the doorstep to the left of goalie Henrik Lundqvist.  With Lundqvist down from trying to defend the Alzner shot, Ribeiro had an open left side of the net to shoot at, and he swiped it in from the same spot of the ice as the finish of another playoff ending from the Caps’ past…

Other stuff…

-- The game-winning goal was due, in no small part, to the reach of Eric Fehr.  When the puck caromed off the left wing boards in the Ranger end, Fehr beat Anton Stralman to the puck with his long reach and one handed the biscuit out of Stralman’s grasp.  That small play was the start of the unfolding of the last sequence.

-- Score power play goal, win game.  That, as much as the home-cooking advantage, has been the trend in this series.  In the three games in which the Caps outscored the Rangers, 1-0, on the power play, they won.  In the two in which the Rangers held that 1-0 advantage in power play goals, they won.

-- Speaking of which, the small things matter, Part I.  The Rangers won the faceoff following a penalty to Brian Boyle for slashing Ribeiro.  But Dan Girardi whiffed on his clearing attempt, and that allowed Marcus Johansson to slip past Girardi to control the puck and set up behind the Ranger net.

-- The small things matter, Part II.  The Caps power play goal will be remembered for the slick passing from Johansson from behind the Ranger net to Nicklas Backstrom at the right wing wall, back to Johansson, who sent a touch pass to Joel Ward in the high slot for the shot and the goal.  But the small thing that opened up Ward was perhaps this…

…Ryan Callahan guarding against the pass across the slot for the one-timer from Alex Ovechkin.  The captain did not register a point in this game, but he provided an effective decoy on this play.

-- Give Braden Holtby credit.  When the Rangers scored on their first shot of the game 53 seconds in, this could have gotten ugly quickly, especially given the circumstances of the goal.  The Caps got caught running around and chasing the Rangers in their own end and were in no position to do anything about Brian Boyle knifing to the slot to convert a feed from Brassard.  But Holtby was solid thereafter, stopping the last 24 shots off Ranger sticks.

-- And give the defense credit, too.  The Caps had those early jitters, but they clamped down hard on the Blueshirts, finishing the game with having allowed only 25 shots through in more than 69 minutes. 

-- Part of that was having to block 30 shots.  Matt Hendricks, who does not yet have a point in this series, was a shot-blocking machine last night, turning away seven Ranger shots in just 9:12 of ice time. 

-- Tom Wilson got his first taste of NHL action, getting 6:24 of ice time in eight shifts.  A shot on goal, a takeaway, and four hits.  Not a bad baptism.

-- We noted that the Caps were getting creamed in offensive zone draws in this series.  They were a little better last night (12-for-27, 44.4 percent), but it still needs work.

-- It might not be the best time to note this but… the second line of Ribeiro, Fehr, and Troy Brouwer had only five shots on goal in 69 minutes, Brouwer getting three of them.  Ribeiro had only one…the game-winning one.

-- Goal scorers are a streaky lot.  Last night Ovechkin had nine shots on goal without finding the back of the net with one.  It was the most shots on goal he recorded this season without getting a goal.  It was the most shots he recorded without a goal since going 0-for-10 in a 3-2 win over Carolina on November 24, 2010.  But he had three assists in that game.  It was the most shots on goal he had without a point since he went 0-for-10 and pointless in a 7-2 win over the New York Islanders on January 26, 2010.

In the end, the Caps ground one out.  It was not dominating from an offensive standpoint, but the defense seemed to get stronger as the game went on.  It is something to build on going into Game 6, at Madison Square Garden, where the Caps have not won a non-Gimmick game since Game 2 of last spring’s playoff series between these two teams.  Caps fans might remember that the game-winning goal in that game was scored by Alex Ovechkin.  It would be nice to repeat that history, just as last night’s game winner repeated some happy history for the Caps.

Washington Capitals: What's in a Number?

Today’s “what’s in a number” number is… “43.”

If Tom Wilson gets the opportunity to dress for his first NHL game tonight, he will do so wearing number “43.”  He would be only the fourth player in Capitals history to wear that number, joining David Harlock, Tomas Fleischmann, and Bryan Helmer as custodians of the “43.”

Ah, but “43” has a richer character as a number than just a sweater number worn by few Capitals in their history.  For instance…

-- “43” is the largest “McNugget Number.”  Original McNuggets, that is.  By that, one means that if you take the sizes of the original McDonald’s McNuggets boxes (6, 9, and 20 to a box), you can perform linear combinations of them to derive any positive integer.  For example, you could sum 6+9+9+9+9 to equal 42.  But there are exceptions.  The largest of the exceptions is the number “43.”  Large, and exceptional.  Two things that Caps fans hope describe Wilson.

-- “43” happens to be the atomic weight of the element “technetium.”  It happens to have the lowest atomic number of any element of the periodic table without a stable isotope.  Caps fans hope that number “43” uses his oft-described propensity to hit to cause “instability” among his opponents.

-- “43” happens to be the year in which the Roman conquest of Britain began.  Hmm… an empire in the south vanquishing a distant enemy of the north.  Sound familiar?

-- 43 days ago, the Caps were stuck with a home record of 8-8-0.  Since then they are 9-0-1 at Verizon Center.

-- “43” was the number of the race car driven by Richard Petty in NASCAR races.  His total of 200 lifetime wins is almost double that of the second-place holder in wins.

-- 43 years ago, in 1970, the Boston Bruins won their first two games in their first round series against…wait for it…the New York Rangers.  They then lost Games 3 and 4.  But Boston won Games 5 and 6 to win the series, then went on to…wait for it…win the Stanley Cup.

The number “43” is, as you can see, not just any number.

Washington Capitals: Wilson, Wilson, Wilson, Wilson, Wilson, Wilson, Wilson, and Wilson

One of these Wilsons might get their first appearance in an NHL game tonight.  Know your Wilsons...

...it's Number 5, Tom Wilson.

Good Advice from the Pros

Odd that this should be today's Calvin and Hobbes strip at gocomics.com...

...be a winner!

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Game 5: Rangers at Capitals

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The last home game of the year.

The playoffs are like that.  In the space of less than 48 hours, fans could go from thinking “we could close this out on Friday” to “this could be the last home game of the year.”  All turning on one game’s outcome, that being the 4-3 loss to the New York Rangers in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series.

So now, it’s on to Game 5, and if you adhere to the notion that “it’s not a series until a team loses loses a home game,” this isn’t yet a series, despite the fact that the teams have combined for 253 shots on goal, 19 goals, 29 power plays, 35 penalties, and 70 penalty minutes.

What did we learn in Game 4 or the games that preceded it that might have relevance to Game 5? 

-- The Caps lead the series in 5-on-5 play (1.14 goals scored to every one allowed), power play (16.7 to 11.8 percent), penalty killing (88.2 percent – third best mark in the playoffs – to 83.3 percent), shots on goal (129 – 124).  In that sense, they shouldn’t be tied.  So why are they?

-- Third periods, to point to one reason.  In two wins, the Caps have held the Rangers scoreless in the third period, while they have lost the third period in both losses by the same 2-1 margin after being tied after 40 minutes.

-- It is not as if the Rangers did it in the third period with a barrage of shots. In the last two games they had eight in the third period of each, but a .750 save percentage has done goalie Braden Holtby and the Caps in.

-- As the top line goes, so go the Caps, but perhaps not as much as you might think.  In Games 1 and 2, the top line of Alex Ovechkin-Nicklas Backstrom, and Marcus Johansson was a combined 2-1-3, plus-1.  Both games were Caps wins.  In Games 3 and 4, this trio was a combined 1-0-1, minus-5.  It is not much of a difference, and it reflects a general lack of dominance; they account for only three of the Caps’ 10 goals in this series so far.

-- If the first line has been underwhelming, the second line has been unnoticeable on offense.  Mike Ribeiro, Troy Brouwer, Martin Erat, and Eric Fehr (who replaced Erat when the latter was injured in Game 4) have combined for one goal (Brouwer) and one assist (Ribeiro).  That they are a combined plus-5 suggests the lines against which they are playing have contributed just as little offense (less, in fact), but this is the gaping hole in the Caps offense.

-- The Caps are not getting shots from forwards.  As you would expect, Alex Ovechkin leads the team in shots on goal in the series (15), but 12 of them came in the Caps’ wins in Games 1 and 2.  He has a total of three shots on goal over the last 120 minutes of hockey.  After that, it gets worse.  Mike Green (12), John Carlson (12), and Karl Alzner (11)…that’s right, Karl Alzner (who had only 39 shots on goal in 48 games in the regular season)… defensemen all, are next in line in shots on goal.

-- There is a disconnect between the Caps advantage at 5-on-5 (1.14 goals scored per goal allowed) and what the top line is doing.  Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Marcus Johansson have the fifth, fourth, and worst “worst” PDO values at 5-on-5.  And, it is a function of low shooting percentages.  Those three are in the bottom seven in on-ice shooting percentage/on ice at 5-on-5 (numbers from behindthenet.ca).  If those numbers normalize, the Rangers are in a world of hurt.

-- The Caps have had the benefit of a lot of (or at least a large share of) offensive zone starts.  Thirteen of 18 skaters have plus-50 percent values at 5-on-5.  Not that they are doing a lot with it, especially that top line.  Eleven of the 18 skaters have offensive zone finishes in sub-50 percent territory, the first line being seventh, twelfth, and fourteenth. 

-- Part of that problem is offensive zone faceoff success.  The top line of Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Johansson are all below 50 percent in offensive zone faceoffs wins to losses (behindthenet.ca).  Not that they are alone.  The Caps are getting creamed in offensive zone draws.  Overall they are 33-for-82 through four games (40.2 percent).  Little things are magnified at this time of year, especially when the margins for error are as thin as they have been in this series (the game-winning goal scored in the third period or overtime in three of the four games).

-- Martin Erat is going to be missed, just not in obvious ways.  Sure, he has not lit up the scoreboard, but despite having the toughest offensive zone start numbers on the team (36.4 percent), he was not on ice for any goal scored against in the first four games.  Whoever replaces him not likely to duplicate that performance (even if you consider it one of those small populations of instances).  Eric Fehr seems likely to get at least the first shot at taking his spot on the second line, and he might provide more offense than did Erat, who did not have a point in three-plus games of this series.

-- The penalties called against Washington in New York were often of the head-scratching variety, but even with all that nonsense, the Caps killed off eight of the ten shorthanded situations they faced in Games 3 and 4.  It was more the effect on rhythm at 5-on-5 – getting scoring lines even and regular timing on their shifts – that might have been the problem.

-- In the “glass half full/glass half empty” file, one might say that the Caps wasted two un-Lundqvistian efforts from Henrik Lundqvist in the two games in New York (a .902 save percentage combined over the two games), and that he will surely return to being a brick wall, this being the Caps he is facing.  On the other hand, he hasn’t had all that great a series, save for Game 2, in which he stopped 37 of 38 shots (and lost).  Think about this over your morning coffee…in his last 19 playoff games against the Caps (dating back to Game 5 of the 2009 Eastern quarters) Lundqvist is 7-12, 2.35, .910.  Good, not great.  He has it in him to be “great,” but that is not what his recent playoff performance against the Caps – many of whom have participated in each of those 19 games – says.

In the end, one gets the feeling that the Caps have played better for longer stretches of time than the Rangers, especially at 5-on-5.  What the Caps have done is failed in moments.  The defensive breakdowns in deep that allowed the Rangers to score four goals from within 15 feet in Game 3, the Braden Holtby pass to nowhere in Game 4, the Steve Oleksy getting caught above the circles in Game 4 that led to the 2-on-1 down low that Jack Hillen could not break up, nor Holtby save.

It has been a case of the Caps doing at least as much to beat themselves as the Rangers have done beating the Caps.  This is not prelude to one of those, “well, the Caps played better” eulogies should they lose this series.  It merely serves to point out that the key to winning what is now a best-of-three series is a simple, if crude, piece of advice…

Stop sucking, or else it very well might be the Caps' last home game of the year.

Capitals 4 – Rangers 2

NHL Eastern Conference Quarterfinals -- Game 4: Rangers 4 - Capitals 3

“Just when you think you got momentum, you lose it.”

Pierre McGuire uttered those words when Mathieu Perreault scored the Washington Capitals’ first goal last night, but it might have described the series, and not in a good way for the Caps.  The momentum the Capitals might have had in winning Games 1 and 2 was lost last night as the New York Rangers tied their series at two games apiece with a 4-3 win at Madison Square Garden. 

The Caps were chasing the Rangers all night, it seemed, allowing the game’s first two goals.  The first one was the result of a ghastly miscue by Braden Holtby, who drifted out to the faceoff circle to his left to play a loose puck late in the first period.  He tried to wire a pass through the middle to Eric Fehr at the red line along the wall on the right side.  Taylor Pyatt got in the way to knock the puck down, then all hell broke loose. Holtby tried to scramble back to his crease as Carl Hagelin scooped up the puck and fired at the Caps’ net.  John Carlson blocked the shot with a skate, but it caromed out to Brad Richards as Holtby was sliding across his crease.  By the time Richards fired, Holtby slid all the way through, and Richards had nothing be empty net to shoot at.  He did not miss, and the Rangers had the lead.

New York would double their lead mid-way through the second period when Carl Hagelin got a goal of his own, firing a shot from the left wing faceoff circle high over Holtby’s glove on the far side.   The Rangers would lose that two-goal lead before the second period was through.  Mathieu Perreault got the Caps on the board when he finished some of Joel Ward’s hard work.  Ward took a feed from Jason Chimera in the neutral zone and skated down the left wing.  He skated defenseman Michael De Zotto to his knees, then circled around him to the Ranger net.  His shot was paddled aside by goalie henrik Lundqvist, but the puck ended up on the stick of Perreault at the left post.  Perreault knocked it in, and the Caps were within a goal.

Troy Brouwer tied the game with 17.1 seconds left in the second period.  It started with some good forechecking pressure from Mike Ribeiro denying the Rangers the chance to clear the puck from their zone.  Mike Green kept the puck in at the right point and fed it to Brouwer at the top of the right wing circle.  Brouwer cut to the middle, split Anton Stralman and Derek Stepan, and backhanded the puck past Lundqvist’s blocker to knot the score at two apiece going into the second intermission.

The Rangers restored their two goal lead early in the third period.  The first came on a power play, Dan Girardi taking a nice backhand feed from Derick Brassard and firing a slap shot past Holtby’s blocker when it appeared Brouwer backed into Holtby’s line of sight to screen his own goaltender.

Stepan made it 4-2 six minutes into the period, finishing some nifty passing in deep.  Ryan Callahan picked up a loose puck at the top of the right wing circle and took advantage of numbers to feed Stepan to Holty’s right.  Stepan fed Hagelin at the other side ot the low slot, then Hagelin fed it back.  Holtby had no chance to prevent Stepan from burying the puck in the back of the net for a new two-goal lead.

Less than 90 seconds later, Perreault got the Caps back within one when he proved that getting in the way can have its charms.  Karl Alzner kept the puck in the Ranger zone at the left point, then let loose a wrist shot toward the Ranger net.  As the puck was making its way toward the net, Perreault was cutting across the middle.  The puck struck him, hit a post, and settled behind Lundqvist to make it 4-3 at 7:31 of the period.

That would be as close as the Caps would get, though.  The Caps would get nine more shots on goal in the last 12:29, but Lundqvist stopped them all, and the series was tied, the momentum the Caps had coming to New York now in the Rangers’ hands as the Caps were leaving town.

Other stuff…

-- How does John Moore not get a penalty for cross-checking Jason Chimera to the ice after Perreault’s goal?

-- The Caps are showing Henrik Lundqvist to be mortal, but they are not taking advantage of that good fortune because their own defense is getting broken down by the Rangers in deep.  New York is getting too many chances – such as that which led to the game-winning goal – in close.

-- The Caps have lost two straight third periods by a 2-1 score and lost the games as a result.  This has been one of those under-the-radar issues for the Caps this season.  They are now 4-6-1 (regular season plus playoffs) when tied after 40 minutes of play (1-2 in this series).

-- Wouldn’t you know it.  The Caps get secondary scoring, and the top line can’t get a point… ok, one in the last two games.  Joel Ward has three assists over the last two games. Mathieu Perreault is 2-1-3 (the two goals being scored last night).  Jason Chimera has a pair of assists.  Jay Beagle has as many goals (one) as the top line has scored in the last two games (one – Nicklas Backstrom  in Game 3).  John Erskine has more assists (one) than does the top line over the last two games. 

-- The top line of Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, and Marcus Johansson was held to four shots on goal and no points last night.  Alex Ovechkin did not have an even-strength shot on goal, only one on a power play.

-- The second line was almost as unproductive.  Troy Brouwer did have a goal, but it was the only point on the Brouwer-Mike Ribeiro-Martin Erat line, and they had only two shots on goal (four, if you include the two that Eric Fehr had when he moved to this line).  Six (even eight) shots on goal from the scoring lines is not especially conducive to scoring.  By way of comparison, the defense recorded 11 shots on goal.

-- The second line problems were in part a product of an injury sustained by Martin Erat late in the first period, who looked as if he injured his left arm when he got tangled up with Derek Stepan and fell to the ice.

-- The Rangers were up to old tricks last night.  They blocked more shots (33) than the Caps recorded on goal (30).  The defense had almost as many blocked shots (19) as did the entire Caps team (20).

-- It was an ugly night in the faceoff circle for the Capitals.  They were 19-for-53 overall (35.8 percent) and just 5-for-18 (27.8 percent) in the offensive zone.

-- The Perreault-Ward-Chimera line (assembled when Erat went out, Eric Fehr moved to the second line, and Ward took Fehr’s place) was the most active one last night – 11 shots on goal, 2-3-5 overall with each player finishing plus-1.

In the end, this has become a frustrating series.  The Caps are doing a lot of little things wrong (faceoffs, for example) and some big things wrong (a wandering goalie, the power play going dark, defensive breakdowns), and still lost these last two games by a single goal when they lost the third periods of both games.  You get the feeling that if the Caps can stop beating themselves, this Rangers team cannot compete with them.  But the Caps have been beating themselves, and the Rangers have been able to compete. 

Now, it becomes a three-game series, and the Caps are really, really bad at three game series.  In 2009 they had a three-game series when Pittsburgh tied their playoff series at two games apiece. The Caps lost, 2-1.  The Caps beat the Boston Bruins in a three-game series in the first round of the playoffs last season, 2-1, but then lost to these same Rangers in the second round, 2-1.  Going back in time… 2003, the Caps lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning, 2-0, after being tied 2-2 after four games.  2001, a 2-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins.  1996, a 2-0 loss to the Penguins. 

There is a long, sad history here.  What it means is that the Caps need to start playing like they have a chip on their shoulder, and not the weight of that history on their backs.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Game 4: Capitals at Rangers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Put your brooms away, Caps fans. There will be no sweep.  And what surprise is there in that?  The Caps went into Game 3 having lost all six times they tried to take a 3-0 lead in games in a seven-game playoff series.  The 4-3 loss to the New York Rangers Game 3 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinals was an iffy effort, by playoff standards, for the Caps.  We would have pointed out in our post-game review had we not had some technical issues to deal with. But what we had to say before we were so rudely interrupted by the fickle finger of fate has relevance to Game 4. 

First, Braden Holtby’s fears that the Caps might have been too loose the day of the game were well founded.  After the pre-game skate he noted that confidence “[is] good to a point. I’m not sure we want it as loose as this morning.  It’s still playoff time and you never want to get comfortable. When you’re starting to get loose, you can tell guys are starting to get comfortable and what not.”  The Caps were entirely too loose in front of their own net.  All four goals were scored from within 15 feet of the Caps’ net…

Here’s Brian Boyle scoring from eight feet…

Here’s Derick Brassard scoring from 15 feet…

Here’s Arron Asham scoring from 12 feet…

Here’s Derek Stepan scoring the game-winning goal from six feet…

Get the picture?  And what is the common thread here?  A Cap is late getting into position to defend.  A day late and a dollar short might have been the takeaway from this effort, looking at these images.

As far as being too loose heading into this game is concerned, Holtby was his own worst enemy, taking a tripping penalty on Rick Nash early in the second period.  The Rangers scored a rare power play goal just eight seconds later.

If Caps fans can take solace in this result, it was that the one-goal difference was a product of the Rangers getting a power play goal and the Caps not converting on any of their three chances.  The Rangers would not be expected to outscore the Caps on special teams on a regular basis. 

On the other hand, though, six power plays allowed is far beyond the Caps’ penalty killing comfort level.  The Rangers scored on their fourth power play – an example of that old “three-power-play” threshold biting the Caps.

Not that the Caps were entirely incompetent in this game.  Getting three goals at the expense of goalie Henrik Lundqvist is something to build on.  And you can say it was equal parts hard work and skill.  The hard work came from Nicklas Backstrom on the first goal, carrying Ranger defenseman Anton Stralman along the end wall and up the left wing boards before sliding the puck off to the point.  Then he circled back into the slot to get in position to deflect a drive by John Carlson for the game’s first goal. 

Unfortunately, it was Backstrom who was victimized by Derek Stepan jumping to the top of the crease to tip in the game-winning goal.  Backstrom was a step late getting into position to try to lift Stepan’s stick.  He was not along having that problem.

The skill came when Mathieu Perreault stepped out and slid a backhand onto the stick of Mike Green, who had the presence of mind not to rush a shot, taking a step in before snapping the puck past Henrik Lundqvist.

One might say there was a bit of luck in Jay Beagle’s goal, but here lies a lesson, too.  Beagle came all the way across the circle on a faceoff to Lundqvist’s right, working himself into position to be an annoyance, a hindrance, or just a body in the way of the puck that Jack Hillen sent to the Ranger net.  Getting shots off and having bodies in front.  Teams practice that so that they might get “lucky” from time to time.  This is something the Caps need to do more often than they did in Game 3.

One of the problems in taking so many penalties is rhythm.  When the skill guys have to sit waiting for the penalty killers to do their thing, they cannot establish a rhythm.  This might not affect the top line guys who might get the call right after a penalty is kiiled off.  But the second line guys might suffer for it.  The Mike Ribeiro-Martin Erat-Troy Brouwer line finished the game with a combined five shots on goal, no points, and almost five fewer minutes as a group of even strength time as the top forward unit.

Rhythm was not the problem on the power play, though.  The Caps managed only one shot on goal on three power plays covering 5:54 of ice time.  The league's best power play had a bad night, made worse by not getting a shot on goal with a 6-on-4 advantage in the last minute of play with goalie Braden Holtby pulled for an extra attacker.  The power play has to be more dynamic and adjust to changes the Rangers appear to have made in their shot blocking strategy (not so inclined to leave their feet).

In the end, here is what it comes down to – Game 4.  Four times in franchise history the Caps won Games 1 and 2 at home.  In all four instances they lost Game 3.  However, twice they won Game 4, then went on to close out the series in five games.  Twice, they lost, then lost the series in seven games.  This is not likely coincidence.  Home ice advantage has been a sometime advantage across the NHL, it seems, but for the Caps it has been negligible in recent years.  It is simple arithmetic.  Lose Game 4, and the Rangers need only a split of two games on Verizon Center ice to win the series (so long as in doing so they win a Game 6 at Madison Square Garden).  And, the Rangers would have momentum heading into what would be a three-game series.

For the Caps, Game 4 is a chance (not the last one they will likely face, mind you) to answer the question if this year’s team really is different – more mature, more focused, more aligned with a winning system – or just another in a long history of teases.  We’re guessing it’s the former.

Capitals 3 – Rangers 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Game 3: Capitals at Rangers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals and the New York Rangers take up their Eastern Conference Quarterfinal matchup on Monday night in Madison Square Garden.  The Caps held onto their home-ice advantage with a pair of wins in Washington, and now the Rangers look to do the same starting with Game 3 in Manhattan.

It is early, this series being two games in, but already there are a couple of things the Caps have done that are contrary to type as reflected in the regular season:

-- The Caps allowed 32.3 shots per game to opponents in the regular season.  They have allowed only 60 shots total (30.0/game) in the first two games, one of which went to overtime with the Caps allowing only 24 shots in 68 minutes.

-- The Caps finished 27^th in the league in penalty killing in the regular season (77.9 percent), but they have killed off all seven of the Rangers’ power play chances so far.  Moreover, the Caps have held the Rangers to 10 shots on goal in 13:04 of power play time, only one of those power play shots coming off the stick of Rick Nash.  Over their last 11 games dating back to April 9^th, the Caps are 24-for-27 on the penalty kill (88.9 percent).

Meanwhile…

-- Henrik Lundqvist is tied for sixth among playoff goalies with a .941 save percentage but does not have a win to show for it.  That is because Braden Holtby is 2-0, 0.47, .983, with one shutout.  In nine career playoff games against the Rangers, Holtby is 5-4, 1.60, .941, with one shutout.

Something to watch for…

Ryan Callahan has been on the ice for three of the four goals scored by the Caps in the series so far.  In the Game 1 pre-game review we noted that his aggression in penalty killing left a hole in the Ranger defense that Alex Ovechkin took advantage of to score a power play goal.  It happened again in overtime in Game 2:

With Ryan McDonagh in the penalty box for a delay-of-game penalty, the Rangers look to have their diamond penalty killing formation in good shape against the Caps’ 1-3-1 power play.  Mike Ribeiro is along the right wing wall, but the Rangers are tight and collapsed in the middle with Callahan at the top of the formation, John Moore marking Troy Brouwer, and Derek Stepan keeping an eye on Alex Ovechkin in the left wing circle…

Ribeiro now establishes himself at the wall, looking over his options.  Callahan has drifted to Ribeiro’s side of the ice, cutting off a potential skip pass to Ovechkin through the middle.  Moore had edged out to close the shooting lane Ribeiro has…

Ribeiro forces the play at this point, stepping in and winding up for a slap shot.  Moore has the shooting lane covered, but Callahan begins to slide across to try and block the shot Ribeiro is indicating.  This has the effect of collapsing the top of the Rangers’ diamond, opening lanes to move the puck to Mike Green at the top of the zone or (a more risky play) to send the puck across to Ovechkin in the left wing circle…

Callahan slides across Ribeiro’s shot line in front of Moore.  At this point the Ranger penalty killing formation has completely broken down, leaving Mike Green open at the top of the offensive zone for a one-timer or Ovechkin at the top of the left-wing circle for the same.  Derek Stepan is now in the unenviable position of having three players to defend – Brouwer at the hash marks at the edge of the right-wing center, Green, and Ovechkin.  He is going to have to make a choice…

Callahan and Moore are essentially out of the play in this moment.  Moore’s responsibility in covering Ribeiro was fulfilled, but there is no Ranger at the top of the diamond – that was Callahan’s responsibility, and he is behind Ribeiro at this point.  Green has an unimpeded path for his one timer, except for Stepan, who is too far away to improve his shot blocking chances.  And, the Caps have numbers for any rebound – Ovechkin all alone on the left wing, and Brouwer, who could turn in the direction he is already leaning for a short rebound near the crease…

It might have ended differently for the Rangers but for the fact that Stepan could not close the distance with Green.  He got close enough to deflect the shot upward just enough for it to sail over Lundqvist’s glove…

…Game over…Green.

This will be something to watch as this series unfolds.  The Caps have been very patient on their power play.  The Rangers have a penalty killing style that tends to aggressively pressure the puck.  Ryan Callahan has been particularly noticeable in this regard.   Can the Caps take advantage of Callahan as the series moves forward?  On the answer to that question this game – and this series – might turn.

Capitals 2 – Rangers 1

Caps vs. Rangers -- Torts' Shorts, Game 2

Frankly, we expected New York Rangers' head coach John Tortorella to be more entertaining in this series than he has been so far.  And by "more entertaining," we mean "smoke-snorting, fire breathing hell on journalists and small children."  But so far, we have seen "Subdued Tortorella."  Although, one can see storm clouds gathering.  You could almost see the first hint of wisps of smoke coming from the coach in his post-game press conference following the Washington Capitals' 1-0 overtime win over the Rangers...

And as for the quotes themselves...

“It’s a rule…”

-- When asked what he thought about the delay of game rule

“Create more offense…”

-- When asked what he thinks needs to be done going forward to get more scoring

“We’re just too stagnant…we’re just almost paralyzed."

-- Asked if it was something the Caps penalty killers were doing or the Rangers not doing that accounted for lack of success on the power play.

“I’ll leave it at that.”

-- On a follow up about what caused the power play to be stagnant or paralyzed.

“They played well, they played well… [we] changed the lines to try to create some more offense and also due to some matchups."

-- When asked what he was hoping to achieve by changing up the lines going into the third period and how the two players (Derek Dorsett and Brian Boyle) did in coming back into the lineup

“They’ll be fine, they’ll be fine, we got a good group.”

-- When asked about the team perhaps being down

It was not the volcanic Tortorella that you either love or hate (depending on your rooting interests), but it was a tick up the Tort-o-Meter of Surliness, too...

4

NHL Eastern Conference Quarterfinals -- Game 2: Capitals 1 - Rangers 0 (OT)

Page V of the “National Hockey League Official Rules, 2012-2013” describes the dimensions of the “approved goal frame.”  There you will find that the inner distance between posts is 72 inches and that the inner height dimension is 48 inches.

This six-foot by four-foot area is all that a goaltender is obliged to defend.  Braden Holtby defended those 24 square feet perfectly, shutting out the New York Rangers in the Washington Capitals’ 1-0 overtime win over the Rangers in Game 2 of their Eastern Conference Quarterfinal series at Verizon Center on Saturday afternoon.

Caps fans might want to keep those dimensions and the goaltender’s obligation to defend only that space if they are inclined to think Holtby and the Caps a bit lucky after the Rangers’ Rick Nash bulled through the Caps’ defense, and with less than four minutes left in regulation chipped a shot off the post to Holtby’s right that might have won the game for the Rangers in regulation time.

As it was, Holtby kept his net clear, despite the Caps having to kill off a penalty late in regulation – that one taken by Troy Brouwer on that bull rush by Nash -- then having to kill off a penalty in overtime when Steve Oleksy shot the puck off the rink from inside the defensive zone for a delay of game penalty.  It set up a thrilling finish when the Rangers took their own delay of game penalty, and Mike Green made good on his “Game Over Green” nickname, blasting a one-timer off a feed from Mike Ribeiro past goalie Henrik Lundqvist for the game-winner and a 2-0 lead in games in the series.

Other stuff…

-- Here is the “random” part of hockey that can be so confounding to numbers folks.  A shoelace.  When Mike Green fired his game-winning shot toward the Ranger net, it appeared that Henrik Lundqvist had a good view of the puck.  But as it was heading for the net it appeared to tick off the top of the skate of Ranger Derek Stepan ever so slightly – perhaps just hitting the laces of his boot – thus causing the path of the puck to tilt up ever so slightly and sail over the glove of Lundqvist, off the post, and into the back of the net.

-- Braden Holtby stopped all 24 shots he faced, making him perfect in the last 53 shots he has faced from the Rangers over 111:15 of ice time.  In nine career playoff games against the Rangers, Holtby is now 5-4, 1.60, .941, with one shutout.

-- His opposite number – Henrik Lundqvist – had, if anything, a better game.  He certainly faced more dangerous shots.  A redirect attempt by Mathieu Perreault that he stopped with his right pad.  A wrister from in close by Marcus Johansson.  A point-blank try by Jason Chimera.  Another point-blank attempt, this one by Alex Ovechkin when he split to Ranger defenders and worked his way in alone on Lundqvist.  Caps fans will hope this was his best game.

-- We like Ryan Callahan’s compete level.  He runs his motor at a high rate just about all the time.  But his aggression when it comes to defending on the power play has had a hand in two power play goals for the Caps in this series.  We covered one in the pre-game look at this contest.  In this one his sliding over to contest a shot from Mike Ribeiro – when John Moore was already in Ribeiro's shooting lane – opened up a shooting lane for Mike Green, who took advantage for the game-winner.

-- Rule 63.2 is on folks’ minds this morning.  The Rule states:

“When any player, with both of his skates inside his defending zone, shoots or bats (using his hand or his stick) the puck directly (non-deflected) out of the playing surface, except where there is no glass, a penalty shall be assessed for delaying the game…”

And the question is not whether Karl Alzner “shot” the puck off the rink with 45.3 seconds left in regulation time, but if he “batted” the puck over the glass with his stick when the puck was dumped over the Capitals’ blue line.  The ruling on the ice, as described by Caps head coach Adam Oates in his post-game press conference, was that the puck was “deflected” over the glass.

-- Is the Washington penalty killing that good or the Ranger power play that bad?  The Caps were three-for-three in this game, making them perfect in seven shorthanded situations for the series.  The Rangers were held to two shots on goal in six minutes of power play time, both off the stick of Brad Richards.  The Rangers did not have a shot on goal on either their power play late in regulation, nor on their power play in overtime.

-- Speaking of shots on goal… eight minutes of overtime, no shots on goal for the Rangers.  In fact, they managed only three shot attempts in those eight minutes – one missed shot and two shots blocked.

-- Rick Nash’s chip off the post late in regulation time notwithstanding, he had only three shots on goal in this game after recording eight shots on goal in Game 1. 

-- Ryan McDonagh’s last shift was memorable.  He took the ice with 4:05 gone in the overtime to match up against the Ovechkin-Backstrom-Johansson line.  The Caps dominated possession in the Ranger end and managed a shot on goal, then a missed shot before the Rangers iced the puck with 5:42 gone, McDonagh having been on the ice for 1:37 and having had to face the top line and the second line of Mike Ribeiro, Martin Erat, and Troy Brouwer in his shift.  But he could not get off the ice because of the icing call. 

This is where Adam Oates made one of those subtle game-within-a-game moves that does not get a lot of attention.  He swapped out the Ribeiro line for fresh legs, getting Mathieu Perreault, Eric Fehr, and Jason Chimera on the ice.  When Henrik Lundqvist stopped and froze a Perreault shot at 6:08 – McDonagh now having been on ice for 2:03 on this shift – the Rangers could have made a change.  But with Oates now sending out the top line, McDonagh stayed on the ice.  Washington won the ensuing faceoff and maintained possession and pressure in the Ranger end, getting six shot attempts at Lundqvist in the next 1:01.  McDonagh then found the puck on his stick, and in trying to relieve pressure, shot the puck off the rink instead, earning a delay-of-game penalty.  He finished with a shift of 3:04 and was in the box when Mike Green scored his game-winner on the ensuing power play.

-- Every Ranger skater was credited with at least one hit.  One wonders if, failing to do so, head coach John Tortorella threatens to make the offending player walk home.

-- Is Braden Holtby getting into the Rangers’ heads?  15 of 18 skaters recorded at least one missed shot. 

-- Every Capital, save Jay Beagle, had at least one shot on goal.  John Carlson and Ovechkin had seven apiece.

-- Eric Fehr was drafted by the Capitals back in 2003 off his considerable goal-scoring promise displayed with the Brandon Wheat Kings in Canadian juniors, but he is finding a place with this Caps team as a penalty killer.  His work in that regard in this game, including swallowing a shot in his midsection and smothering the puck under him, was superb.

In the end…

This is the fourth time in Caps history that the team won both Games 1 and 2 on home ice.  In two series they were taken to seven games, both against Pittsburgh (1992, 2009), and on both occasions the Caps lost.  In the other two series – against Ottawa in 1998 and against the Rangers in 2009 – the Caps closed out the series in five games.  The key is not Game 3 (lost by the Caps in all four series), but Game 4 (won by the Caps in both five-game series wins, lost in both seven-game series losses).

What this means is that the Caps have merely held serve, and now the Rangers get the chance to return the favor of disappointing their guests on Monday and Wednesday.  This series is a long way from over, but it is the Rangers who have the much more difficult path to win, thanks to a superb effort by the Caps and some sly moves by the coaching staff.