The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 72: Capitals at Sharks, March 22nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their California trip with a visit to SAP Center and the San Jose Sharks. Whether called by its original name, the “San Jose Arena,” or by “Compaq Center at San Jose,” or “HP Pavilion at San Jose,” or "SAP Center," the edifice at 525 West Santa Clara Street in San Jose has been nothing less than a house of pain for the Washington Capitals.

The Caps won the first game they ever played in that building, a 4-2 win over the Sharks on October 30, 1993. They must have offended the hockey gods in doing so, for since then the Caps have yet to record their second win in that building. They are 0-11-1 since that lone win and have been outscored, manhandled in fact, by a margin of 46-23.

How long has it been since the Caps won in San Jose? Well, now that you asked…

• Keith Jones and Craig Berube had goals for the Caps in that lone win. They do Flyers things these days.
• Arturs Irbe was the losing goaltender; he would go on to become goaltenders coach for the Caps.
• The video game, “Doom,” was still six weeks from its first release date.
• Meat Loaf’s “I’d Do Anything for Love (But I Won’t Do That)" was about to become the number one single the following week.
• “The Bridges of Madison County” topped the New York Times best seller list for fiction.
• “Seinfeld” fans had just seen “The Lip Reader” episode for the first time.
• “The Jon Stewart Show” debuted on MTV just five days earlier.
• Stephen Colbert was playing a character named “Chet Davies” in a TV show called “Missing Persons”… you probably remember neither.
• “The Beverly Hillbillies” was the highest grossing film the previous week.
• The Toronto Maple Leafs lost to the Montreal Canadiens, 5-2, after opening the 1993-1994 season with ten straight wins (including a 7-1 win over the Caps).

How bad has it been? Rick Tabaracci was the last netminder to win in San Jose, stopping 25 of 27 shots in a 4-2 win. Since then…

• Jim Carey: 0-2-0, 4.07, .846
• Olaf Kolzig: 0-2-1, 4.92, .839
• Rick Tabaracci: 0-1-0, 2.03, .944
• Craig Billington: 0-1-0, 2.02, .909
• Sebastien Charpentier: 0-1-0, 2.08, .943
• Brent Johnson: 0-1-0, 7.00, .750
• Michal Neuvirth: 0-2-0, 4.01, .869
• Tomas Vokoun: 0-1-0, 4.06, .895

Taken together, that is 0-11-1, 4.02, .868 in 12 games.

Oh, and like the offense has been outstanding? The Caps have 23 goals in 12 games since their last win in San Jose, those goals being spread among 19 different players. Only four Capitals have had as many as two goals scored in that time – Sergei Gonchar, Joe Juneau, Jaromir Jagr, and Alex Ovechkin. Only Jagr among that group has a two-goal game, that coming in a 5-4 loss to the Sharks on March 15, 2002.

And now, the Caps get to try again. This San Jose team is every bit as formidable as those of recent vintage that have wreaked havoc on the Caps. In this game the Sharks will have a chance to reach the 100-point mark for seventh time in the last nine full 82-game seasons. Their .697 standings points percentage ranks second in franchise history to the .713 mark set with the 53-18-11 team that finished with 117 points in 2008-2009. They would seem a lock, having 46 wins with 11 games remaining, to reach the 50-win mark for the fourth time in franchise history.

As if they needed any help against the Caps, the Sharks come into this game on a roll. San Jose has won seven of their last eight games and are 11-2-1 over their last 13 contests. They have the best home record (26-5-4) in the Western Conference, and only Boston (28-7-2) has a earned more points at home in the league.

In winning seven of their last eight games, San Jose outscored their opponents by a 28-16 margin. Their special teams have been uneven in their run, the power play going just 3-for-28 (10.7 percent) over those games, while the penalty kill has been 18-for-21 (85.7 percent) and just had a string of 16 straight kills broken by Anaheim on Thursday.

San Jose features what is now a scary trio of forwards. Of the 28 goals scored by the Sharks over their last eight games, three of them were scored by a line of Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, and Brent Burns. At least two of those three figured together in six other goals. Thornton is 3-7-10 over those eight games, Pavelski is 2-6-8, and Burns is 5-3-8. Thornton (69) and Pavelski (67) each have more than 60 points this season. Add in Patrick Marleau (61 points), and the Sharks are one of just three teams (Chicago and Pittsburgh being the others) featuring three 60-point players.

The Sharks might have a fourth player in that 60-point club, but Logan Couture has missed 16 games with a hand injury that required surgery. As it is, Couture has 46 points in 55 games, a pace that would put him at 59 points had he dressed for all of the Sharks’ games to date.

This quintet has done quite well against the Caps.  Thornton, Pavelski, Burns, Marleau, and Couture have a combined 75 man-games of experience against the Caps and have a scoring line of 27-44-71.

Here is how the teams’ numbers stack up against one another…

1.  Los Angeles squeezes the life out of teams.  San Jose electrocutes them.  They are fourth in the league in 5-on-5 goals scored; they lead the league in goals scored in the first period; only three teams have more wins when scoring first in games than the 33 held by the Sharks.

2.  If the Caps are going to allow shots, the Sharks will be thrilled to accept the gift.  San Jose leads the league in shots on goal per game (34.9) and has the second-best record in the league when outshooting teams.  The Sharks have 33 wins when outshooting opponents; the Caps have outshot opponents a total of 22 times (winning 11 times).

3.  And don’t think about getting the jump on the Sharks.  Only St. Louis (10) and Chicago (7) have fewer multiple goal losses this season than the Sharks (11).

4.  San Jose is a very disciplined team when it comes to the rule book.  No team has taken fewer minor penalties.  Consider that the Sharks have taken 207 minors in 71 games, while the Caps have taken 281 (25^th in the league).  No team has found itself shorthanded less frequently than the Sharks. Again, consider that the Sharks are first with just 187 times shorthanded, while the Caps are 25^th with 253.

5.  From the frying pan into the fire.  The Caps just left the top possession team in the league in the Los Angeles Kings.  On Saturday they face another top-five team in possession metrics.  San Jose sports a Corsi-for percentage that is: fifth overall at even strength (53.5), fifth at 5-on-5 (53.7), and fifth at 5-on-5 close score situations (54.1).  Their Fenwick-for percentages are even better: third at even strength (54.5), third at 5-on-5 (54.7), and third at 5-on-5 close score situations (54.9).

1.  The Caps were 0-for-3 on the power play against Los Angeles on Thursday, making them 11-16-8 in games in which they do not score a power play.  Washington is 0-3-2 in their last five such games.

2.  Jaroslav Halak has allowed two or fewer goals in five of his seven appearances with the Caps and in nine of his last 12 appearances dating back to January 28^th when he pitched a 3-0 shutout at the New Jersey Devils for the St. Louis Blues.

3.  Evgeny Kuznetsov is the tenth Capitals rookie since the 2004-2005 lockout to reach five assists in his rookie season.  Yes, it sounds like a modest number, five assists.  Still, compare it to Mathieu Perreault (five assists in 21 games), Tom Wilson (six in 71 games), or even Marcus Johansson (14 in 69 games) in their rookie seasons, and Kuznetsov is out of the gate pretty fast, having five assists in his first six games.

4.  Washington has allowed 135 goals at 5-on-5 this season.  Of the nine teams having allowed more, only Toronto (139) is currently in the top-eight in in their conference, and the Maple Leafs are looking shaky.

5.  The Caps are going the wrong way on possession.  After finishing with a respectable Corsi-for percentage of 53.7 in 5-on-5 close score situations and a Fenwick-for of 55.7 against the Maple Leafs las Sunday, the Caps have a Corsi-for percentage of 41.0 and a Fenwick-for of 40.9 on their California trip so far and have been outshot in those situations by a margin of 73-52.  That .956 save percentage in those situations has come in handy.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

San Jose: Antti Niemi

He is not spectacular, but he wins.  Since he dropped three in a row back in early December, Antti Niemi is 19-9-0 in 29 appearances in goal and has not lost so much as consecutive games, let alone had a losing streak.  Over those 29 games he has a 2.57 goals against average and a .914 save percentage. Again, not spectacular.  But Niemi has been consistent.  Only five times in those 29 appearances did he allow more than three goals, only once as many as five.  He does not often wow the crowd (two shutouts in those 29 games), but neither does he often disappoint.  He wins, more often than any goalie in the league in fact (35).  He is 4-0-1, 1.75, .938 with one shutout against the Caps in his career.

Washington:  Mike Green

In back-to-back games against Philadelphia earlier this month Mike Green had a goal and four assists.  Since then… crickets.  Green has one goal in his last eight games and is a minus two and has been on ice for five of the 18 goals scored against Washington.  The Caps are 4-3-1 over those eight games, but more of a contribution from Green  the Caps might have another win or so under their belt and would be on the good side of the playoff divide.  Green is 0-1-1 in four games against the Sharks over his career.

Keys:

1.  An Ounce of Prevention.  Given the recent history of these clubs in this building, the first order of business is not to let San Jose get away.  Stay with them, prove you can compete. Keep them out of your net early.

2.  Average Joe.  Joe Thornton is one of the most accomplished set-up men in the recent history of the NHL.  Only one player since the 2005-2006 lockout has played in at least 200 games and has more assists per game than Thornton.  Sidney Crosby has averaged 0.90 assists per game to Thornton’s 0.85.  Hold him below his average, and the Caps have a chance.

3.  When Opportunity Knocks.  San Jose does not spend much time killing penalties.  Plainly put, when they do have to go shorthanded, the Caps have to convert.  This might have to be a 1-for-2 or 2-for-3 power play sort of game for the Caps.

In the end…

Everything that has a beginning has an end.  I see the end coming, I see the darkness spreading.  I see death.

OK, you “Matrix” fans will recognize that quote from The Oracle,” but tonight it applies to the San Jose winning streak against the Caps.  It’s time.

Capitals 3 – Sharks 2

Washington Capitals: A ONE-point Night -- Game 71: Kings 2 - Capitals 1 (OT/Gimmick)

Well, they got one.

There have been games this season in which it could be said, if the Caps miss the playoffs, these will be the points they will regret leaving on the table.  Last night in Los Angeles, though, the Caps erased a 1-0 deficit in the third period to force extra time, thus earning a valuable standings point.  The Caps could not complete the comeback, though, and fell in the freestyle competition to the Kings, 2-1.

The Kings scored first on an odd play.  Justin Williams floated a long pass from inside his own blue line toward Marian Gaborik skating to the Capitals’ blue line.  The puck was too far for Gaborik, but since he had a step on John Carlson, icing was waved off, and Gaborik collected the puck below the Caps goal line.  With Carlson tending to Gaborik, Anze Kopitar filled in behind, and Gaborik found him to goalie Jaroslav Halak’s right.  Kopitar’s shot was a weak one, but Halak was caught somewhere between paying attention to Gaborik and contemplating the magnificence of his new goalie mask.  The puck slithered between his pads, and the Kings had a 1-0 lead 14:09 into the first period.

Given the nature of the Kings’ style of play, this goal very well might have been enough.  It held up through the remainder of the first period and through the second period.  It held up over 12 minutes of the third period.  That is when perseverance paid off for the Caps.  Nicklas Backstrom fed the puck out from the right wing corner to the right point where Evgeny Kuznetsov held it in the zone.  Kuznetsov skated back down the right wing and behind the Kings’ net, popping out on the other side where he found Joel Ward at the edge of the left wing circle.  Ward took one whack at the puck, but that was blocked by Drew Doughty.  The puck came right back to Ward, and his second whack found the back of the net past goalie Jonathan Quick to tie the game. 

Neither team could find the means to break the tie in regulation or overtime, the Caps failing to convert a power play in the extra session on three shots.  That left it to the trick shot competition where, after Kuznetsov and Jeff Carter exchanged goals, Gaborik provided the final margin when he found the back of the net over Halak’s glove.  When Quick gloved down Nicklas Backstrom’s try at the other end, it was the Kings earning the bonus point for the evening.

Other stuff…

-- Alex Ovechkin came into the game having failed to score a goal in Los Angeles in four tries.  He left the building with no goals in five visits to the City of Angels.  He has two goals in his last eight games, picking an unfortunate time to hit a skid.

-- Kuznetsov recorded his fifth assist in six games.  He now ranks 17^th on the club in helpers.  Next up in front of him, Tom Wilson and Dmitry Orlov, with six.

-- The Caps have participated in a league-high 16 trick shot competitions and with this loss are now 8-8 in that phase.  They started the season with four straight wins in the freestyle competition and seven wins in their first nine berths.  However, the Caps have now lost five straight Bettman Follies.  Four of those five losses have been by what are officially recorded as 2-1 scores.

-- You could fault Halak on the Kopitar goal, but it might have been nice if Karl Alzner was quicker to jump up and keep up with Kopitar heading to the net on that one.

-- Chicken and egg time, Caps fans.  Patrick Wey dressed for his fifth game with the club last night.  The Caps are now 4-0-1 in games in which Wey dressed.  More to the point, the Caps have allowed only seven goals in those five games and never more than two.  He skated for 18:31 last night, a career high, if just in five games.  It is a small (to the point of minuscule) sample size, but don’t forget that he comes from four years in one of the highest pedigree of NCAA programs, too.  Whether he can keep it up or not, at least enjoy it in the moment.

-- The challenge for the Caps was to try to hold their own at even strength against one of the elite possession teams so that they could let their power play perhaps make a difference.  Things did not work out that way.  The Kings dominated the Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages at even strength (57.8/42.2), 5-on-5 (58.8/41.3), and 5-on-5 close score (55.6/44.4).  The Caps were held to 16 shots on goal at even strength.

-- We don’t think that Staples Center employs an official scorer so much as they use a pinball machine, at least to record hits.  The official score sheet has the Kings out-hitting the Caps, 50-22.  Every King was credited with at least one (well, except goalie Jonathan Quick), the defense being gifted with almost as many (20) as the entire Caps team.

-- With a goal in his fourth straight game, Joel Ward has set a career high for consecutive games with at least one goal.  He accomplished a three-game streak five times previously, one with the Caps earlier this year and four with Nashville.

-- It was a good thing that Ward came through when he did.  He and his usual running mates on what was the third line (we use that syntax because lines were all over the place at times last night) had a quiet night to that point.  Ward’s goal came on his only shot on goal for the game, while Jason Chimera had one shot, and Eric Fehr was shut out.

-- Nicklas Backstrom recorded an assist for his fourth straight game.  Since January 31^st, Backstrom is 2-17-19 in 17 games.  He is also minus-8, so there is that (he was “even” last night).

-- The Caps are now 0-22-5 when scoring two or fewer goals.  All five extra-time losses have come via the Gimmick.

In the end…

If the Caps squeak into the playoffs by a point, this might be the point upon which they will gaze and think, “yup, this was the one.”  The Kings pretty much had the Caps were they might have wanted them, down a goal and struggling to sustain any offensive momentum.  It would have been easy to counter punch, let the Caps start taking chances late, and take advantage of opportunities or perhaps pot an empty netter late. 

Some teams can play that way, and the Kings are one of them.  But Joel Ward put an end to that.  He might not be the Caps’ MVP this season, but he is in the room for the discussion.  He has been particularly strong of late.  The Caps will need that as they head to their own House of Doom in San Jose, where they have not won since October 1993.  Ward will not be enough, though.  Now, the big guns have to be heard from, too.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 71: Capitals at Kings, March 20th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It is one down and two to go for the Washington Capitals on their California road trip, and that means a visit to Staples Center in Los Angeles to visit the Kings.  The Kings have been a nuisance to the Caps for quite some time.  Since the Caps won four in a row against this franchise back in the early 1990’s, they are 5-15-3 in their last 23 meetings dating back to October 1995.  All of the wins were of the one-goal variety, while seven of the losses came by three or more goals.  This is a team against which the Caps have a long recent history of struggle.

This more recent vintage of the Kings was riding quite high just a week or so ago with an eight game winning streak.  However, the Toronto Maple Leafs ended that streak a week ago, and the Kings are now on a three-game losing streak since, dropping one-goal decisions to the Maple Leafs, the Anaheim Ducks, and the Phoenix Coyotes. 

The Kings are a club that lives and dies by their goals allowed.  When allowing two or fewer goals they are 34-5-3.  However, when allowing more than two goals in a game they are 4-20-3.  It really is a thin margin.  In seven of the eight games of their recent winning streak they held teams to two or fewer goals, while in two of the three games of their losing streak since they allowed more than two goals.

Goals allowed being such a prominent factor in the Kings’ success, that brings us to defense.  It starts with Jonathan Quick in goal.  Quick is fourth in the league in goals against average (2.10) but just tied for 20^th in save percentage (.914).  Why the disparity?  No goalie among all those qualifying among the goals against average leaders has faced fewer shots per 60 minutes than Jonathan Quick (24.5).  Only twice this season had Quick faced more than 30 shots in a game, only once in his last 32 appearances.  He performed well in those games, winning one and losing in a shootout in the other (.957 aggregate save percentage), but he does not as a rule get a heavy workload.  Quick is 2-0-0, 2.50, .931 in two career appearances against the Capitals.

Offense has been something of an issue for the Kings, well managed because of their impressive defense and goaltending.  The fact remains that Los Angeles scored more than three goals in a game only once in their last nine games, only twice in their last 21 games.  It is not a team that displays a lot of offensive firepower.  Only six players have reached the double digit mark in goals. 

An odd part about the Kings’ offense is that of the 13 players having hit the double digit mark in points this season, five of them are defensemen.  Three of them – Drew Doughty, Slava Voynov, and Jake Muzzin – have 20 or more points.  Voynov has been having an especially noteworthy year in the context of his career development.  In this, his third year in the NHL he has set career highs in games played (69), assists (24), and points (27).  He has four assists in his last six games, although what he has been lacking in lately is goals.  He has not scored a goal of his own since November 14^th against the New York Islanders, a streak of 50 games.

At forward, Anze Kopitar might be among the top five forwards in the league.  On an offensively challenged team he still has more than 20 goals (21), more than 50 points (57), and a plus-minus above 20 (plus-24).  No player has a higher Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5  (61.1) than Kopitar, and he is second in Fenwick-for percentage at 5-on-5 among all skaters.  He has a knack of tilting the ice so that the Kings have more shots on goal than opponents, reflected in his shots-for percentage of 59.8 percent, tops in the league.  Put another way, the Kings have almost 200 more shots on goal when he is on the ice than opponents at 5-on-5 (579 to 390). 

Here is how the teams compare overall…

1.  The Kings are possession maniacs.  Kopitar is not the only Kings player who dominates the shots for/against percentages.  He, Justin Williams, Jake Muzzin, Dwight King, and Dustin Brown rank in the top-12 in shots-for percentage at 5-on-5.  That is a product of the Kings leading the league in Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages. 

2.  The Kings are the only team in the league to have allowed fewer than 50 goals in each of the first (45), second (48), and third (49) periods of games this season.

3.  Scoring at 5-on-5 against this team is no mean feat.  The Kings are allowing just 1.28 goals per game at 5-on-5, best in the league.  On the other hand, the Kings are scoring 1.52 goals per game at 5-on-5, second worst in the league.

4.  Something that seems unexpected for a team that depends so much on defense and low scoring games is that the Kings have had the third highest number of shorthanded situations faced this season, and their penalty killers are good (83.0 percent; 11^th in the league), but not extraordinary.  Only six teams have allowed more power play goals than the Kings.

5.  For what it is worth, here is an odd juxtaposition of real time statistics.  The Kings are second in the league in hits credited at home.  They are next to last in blocked shots in home games.  And, they have a staggering (to the point of stretching credulity) ratio of giveaways-to-takeaways of 4.30:1 at home, not what one would expect for a team that keeps the barn doors closed in their end of the ice.

1.  The Caps have enjoyed the third highest number of power play opportunities on the road this season (120).  Only Pittsburgh (127) and Florida (128)…Florida?!...have more.

2.  Only five teams have allowed more first period goals than the Caps (62).  Not that it seems to matter a lot.  The Caps do not do so well when leading after one period, relatively speaking.  They have the sixth worst record in the league when leading after 20 minutes.

3.  Only Toronto (56) and Buffalo (54) have been out-shot in games more than the Caps (46) this season.  That the Caps are 21^st in winning percentage when out-shot says something about why they are on the outside looking in at a playoff spot.

4.  Three teams this season have more bench penalties than the eight the Caps have, twice as many as the Caps had in 48 games last season.  Only nine had fewer bench minors last season.

5.  So, the Caps have played one more game than the Kings.  However, despite skating more than 100 more minutes at 5-on-5 this season, the Caps have more than 100 fewer shots on goal at 5-on-5 than the offensively challenged Kings (1,536 to 1,651).  They have allowed almost 400 more shots on goal at fives (1,719 to 1,341). 

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Los Angeles: Tyler Toffoli

Who?  OK, so you might not get to see the late games from the west coast that often, but the second-year center from Scarborough, Ontario, has 25 points in 49 games this season for the Kings, a respectable number given this team’s overall offensive production.  He has been providing some production from down the roster with his 2-6-7 over his last 12 games.  It might not sound like a lot, but it is more than the 2-2-4 of Mike Richards over 12 games, and it looks a lot like the 3-4-7 of Justin Williams over his last 12 games.  He has never faced Washington.

Washington:  Dustin Penner

Dustin Penner heads into Game Two of his “Former Team Road Show” still looking for his first goal with the Caps in what will be his ninth game with the club.  Penner is still in search of a consistent role other than just “left wing.”  Is he a top-six contributor or a bottom-six grinder?  Does he get power play time, or is he expected to contribute at even strength?  He is averaging two fewer minutes of ice time with the Caps (13:13) than he did with Anaheim (15:15) before his trade to Washington.  He has spent most of his 5-on-5 time so far with Troy Brouwer (52:30) and Marcus Johansson (40:04), suggesting that the preferred fit is as a second line contributor.  However, he has just nine shots on goal in eight games with the Caps so far, a hint that he just has not found a way to mesh with his new teammates/linemates yet.  It needs to happen soon.

Keys:

1.  Get to 30.  Jonathan Quick is not the best manager of high shot volumes.  Over the last two seasons, Quick is 2-7-3 when facing 30 or more shots with a goals against average of 2.79 and a save percentage of .916.  Compare that to his 2.16 goals against average when facing fewer than 30 shots over the past two seasons.  Is save percentage in those low-shot games is actually lower (.906), but the point is that he is more or less a consistent puck-stopper regardless of shot volumes.  Find a way to put more shots on goal, he does not generally ramp up his game in terms of save percentage that much.

2.  Demonic Possession.  Those shot volumes are not going to generate themselves.  The Caps will be facing an elite possession team.  They have to battle here…hard.  If this ends up being another passive game where the Caps are the ones allowing high shot volumes, this is not going to end well.

3.  First Line First.  The Caps have gotten away with some less-than-elite performances from their top line lately, especially at even strength, and specifically from Alex Ovechkin.  Going into the last dozen games of the season, he needs to be at the top of his game.

In the end...

This is the game that could make for a successful road trip, and not just because a lot of folks think the Caps have next to no chance to win in San Jose on Saturday, given their history there.  A win here, over a team with the sort of defense-first, grind-you-down style of the Kings, a team with a Stanley Cup pedigree that is built for the post-season, and the Caps look like a team that might have a fighting chance for a playoff spot after all.  Add to that the fact that the Caps could be among the playoff qualifiers if they win this game, and Columbus loses to Montreal earlier in the evening, and it should be motivation enough.

Capitals 3 – Kings 2

Washington Capitals: A TWO-point Night -- Game 70: Capitals 3 - Ducks 2

One thing the Caps have had little experience in this season is a goaltender stealing a game for them.  One could say that is what the Washington Capitals got last night as the Caps, behind Jaroslav Halak’s 43 saves and Alex Ovechkin’s third period power play goal, defeated the Anaheim Ducks, 3-2, at Honda Center.

The game started good – and bad – for the Caps early on.  Joel Ward scored just 2:11 into the game.  Ward put on a clinic on absorbing abuse to make a play.  As the Capitals were moving the puck deep along the perimeter Ward was fighting through defenseman Bryan Allen to set up in front of goalie Jonas Hiller, where he then took several cross-checks to the back by defenseman Stephane Robidas.  The puck went out to Mike Green, who threw it at the net.  The shot was blocked by Nick Bonino, but not recovered by the Ducks.  Jason Chimera got a whack at it, but his shot hit Ward.  When Chimera took another swipe at it, the puck squirted to the side of the net to Hiller’s left.  By this time Ward was left alone, Robidas having drifted to the other side to cover Eric Fehr moving to the net.  Ward pulled the loose puck away from Hiller and wristed it into the net behind him to give the Caps a 1-0 lead.

That lead lasted 59 seconds.  Ben Lovejoy evened the scored when the Caps got caught up in some confusion at the players’ benches.  The Caps got caught in both a slow line change and in paying a little too much attention to what they thought was a slower one by the Ducks that resulted in too many men on the ice.  While that penalty was not being called, Lovejoy took a pass and moved the puck to Andrew Cogliano at the Capitals’ blue line. Cogliano taook a stride into the zone and dropped the puck for Lovejoy who ripped a one timer under the left arm of Halak to tie the game.

That might have been how the game went into the first intermission, but Saku Koivu took an interference penalty just 31 seconds before the break.  It was enough to give the Caps an opening.  The Caps worked the puck around the Ducks’ box – Carlson at the line to Backstrom on the half wall, back to Carlson, then over to Alex Ovechkin in the left wing circle.  Ovechkin moved it all the way through to Backstrom on the other side, who stepped in and wristed a shot from the right wing faceoff dot.  Hiller made the save, but did not control the rebound.  The puck came out to his right where Troy Brouwer was all alone to backhand it past Hiller and give the Caps a 2-1 lead after 20 minutes.

That score stood up until the third period, largely due to Halak’s stopping all 15 shots he saw in the second period.  But less than two minutes into the third period an old Cap struck. As a power play was expiring, the Ducks moved the puck around the top of their power play formation, eventually finding Mathieu Perreault circling around the top of the right wing circle. Perreault moved up and wristed the puck past Halak, who was screened by Patrick Maroon.

The Caps then turned the tables on the Ducks, taking the lead back just 1:12 later on a power play.  With Matt Beleskey off for slashing, the Caps took care of business off the next faceoff.  Troy Brouwer won the draw back to John Carlson, who did a good job keeping the puck in the zone.  Carlson slid the puck to Nicklas Backstrom at the right wing wall, and Backstrom returned it to Carlson.  At the top of the zone Carlson showed slap shot but sent a slap pass to Alex Ovechkin low in the left wing circle.  Ovechkin fired the one timer before Jonas Hiller had a chance to get across, and the Caps had their lead back.

After that it was in the hands of Halak.  The Ducks managed 16 shots after the Ovechkin goal, but Halak stopped them all, and the Caps had their 3-2 win to open their California trip.

Other stuff…

-- The win was the Caps’ fourth straight at Honda Center, three of them one-goal decisions.

-- The power play goal by Ovechkin was his 20^th, the third time in his career he hit the 20 power play goal mark and first since he had 22 in 2007-2008.

-- Brouwer’s power play goal was his 11^th making it more than the combined total of his previous two years with the Caps (10).

--  The 15:30 skated by Ovechkin was his low for the season and his lightest skating load since he took 15:03 in ice time on December 20, 2011 against Nashville in the early Dale Hunter coaching days.  That was a product of his getting only 13:01 in even strength ice time, less than his new linemate Jay Beagle, who had 13:33.

-- Halak has faced more than 40 shots twice this season, both with the Caps, both wins, saving 81 of 86 shots against Vancouver and last night against the Ducks.

-- With two assists, Nicklas Backstrom had his 13^th multi-assist game of the season, just his fifth on the road.

-- The two power play goals made it two games in a row with two power play goals, power play goals in three straight games and five of their last six.  Over their last 11 games the Caps are 14-for-35 on the power play (40.0 percent).

-- Halak was 12-for-12 stopping shots on the power play, although the Perreault goal might as well have been one as it was scored just as a penalty was expiring.

-- Jay Beagle celebrated his elevation to the Ovechkin line with three minor penalties, a season high in minor penalties and penalty minutes (six), and the first time he has taken three minors in a game since he did it in a March 13, 2012 game against the New York Islanders.

-- Joel Ward has goals in three straight games, matching his longest streak of the season, three games from January 30^th through February 2^nd.

-- Jason Chimera picked up an assist.  He has seven helpers in his last ten games.

-- Patrick Wey recorded an assist, too.  That makes three straight games in which he has one, although more than a month passed since his last assist, that coming in a 3-0 win over New Jersey on February 8^th.

-- The loss was Anaheim’s fourth straight at home ((0-2-2).

In the end…

A great start to the California portion of this brutal March schedule.  The Caps played the Ducks hard, although the shot totals were not what one might have liked to see.  That being the case, Jaroslav Halak was up to the challenge, which left the Caps to play to their strength at the other end – the power play.  It was enough for the win.  However, now it gets tougher.  Los Angeles and San Jose have not been as accommodating as Anaheim as hosts.  But getting a good start before those tests can’t hurt.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 70: Capitals at Ducks, March 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

There are songs about California.  There are songs about Los Angeles.  There are even songs about San Jose.  But Anaheim?  Anaheim is the city where sports teams go to die.  Whether lacrosse (Anaheim Storm) or tennis (Anaheim Oranges), indoor soccer (Anaheim Splash) or the outdoor variety (California Surf), or even football (Los Angeles Rams, Southern California Sun, Anaheim Piranhas), Anaheim is where sports teams have generally short, unsuccessful lives.

Which brings us to the Anaheim Ducks.  The Ducks are celebrating their 20^th season in the NHL.  It is rather remarkable, seeing as how the Ducks have outlived the Storm (ended operations in 2005), Splash (1997), Surf (2002), Rams (1994), and Piranhas (1997), not to mention the Anaheim Bullfrogs roller hockey team (1999), Southern California Surf ABA 2000 team (2002), and Anaheim Arsenal NBA Development League team (2009).  When you add to this the fact that the Ducks are a two-time Stanley Cup finalist and Cup winner in 2007, they have a history as rich in its own way – by Southern California standards – as the Montreal Canadiens.

The 2013-2014 edition of the Ducks are seeking to add to this rich history.  Their 45 wins to date are within three wins of a franchise record for a regular season (48, set in their Stanley Cup year).  Their 97 standings points is fifth highest in franchise history (110 being the highest in 2006-2007).

And here is some more tortured history to chew on. Before this season two coaches in Anaheim history won 40 or more games.  Mike Babcock did it in 2002-2003.  Randy Carlyle did it five times.  Both coaches took Ducks teams to Cup finals, Babcock in 2003 and Carlyle in 2007.  And that brings us to Bruce Boudreau, who this year became the third coach in Anaheim history to lead the team to 40 or more wins (45 and counting).

Boudreau is no stranger to 40-win seasons in the NHL.  He has done it four times seven seasons and barely missed the mark in a year in which he was fired.  In 2011-2012 he was relieved of his duties with the Washington Capitals after going 12-9-1, then won 27 games with the Ducks to finish the season 39-32-9 overall.  In the only two seasons he did not get that close he posted 37 wins in 61 games after taking over the Caps from Glen Hanlon in 2007-2008, and he won 30 games in last year’s abbreviated 48 game season (a 51-win pace).

If only that success had currency in the post-season.  Boudreau is 20-24 in five playoff seasons and has won two of seven playoff series in which he has coached, never escaping the second round.  Even more excruciating, he has coached in seven-game series five times, losing four of them.

Boudreau will get another bite at that playoff apple, but at the moment the task for the Ducks is heading off into the post-season on a high note.  One could argue that the high note of the Ducks’ season to date was their 3-0 win over the Los Angeles Kings in the Stadium Series game at Dodger Stadium on January 25^th.  Based on the Ducks’ record since, one might have to agree.

Since beating the Kings in the great outdoors, Anaheim is 6-6-2.  Worse, they are 3-5-2 at home after starting the season 21-1-2 at Honda Center.  The difficulties have not been unique.  The Ducks’ scoring has been down (2.57 goals/game over these 14 games versus 3.33 over their first 54 games).  Worse, the scoring has been inconsistent. Anaheim has been shut out twice in this span and held to one goal on three other occasions.

One of the problems here has been secondary scoring.  An example is Center Nick Bonino.  For folks who might recognize only the names of Ryan Getzlaf or Corey Perry on the Ducks’ roster, Bonino is currently third on the team in points.  He is not only in the midst of a career year, his fifth in the NHL, but his 17-27-44 scoring line is more than his scoring line over the previous 112 games he played over pieces of four seasons (11-22-33).  However, while he was 16-24-40 in his first 54 games, he is 1-3-4 in 10 games since (he missed four games to a wrist injury).  Bonino has been something of a good luck charm for the Ducks when he is in the lineup, very much less when he is out of the lineup it seems.  Bonino has not recorded a point in three career appearances against the Capitals.

Another thing to consider is the occasional nicks an dents that players endure that make them miss games, if not in large blocks, then often enough to affect their momentum.  For that, there is former Capital Mathieu Perreault.  Obtained from the Caps just before the start of the season, Perreault got out of the gate fast with his new team.  He was 4-5-9 in his first nine games with Anaheim and 5-9-14 in his first 16 appearances.  Ah, but as Caps fans know, “Hot Perreault” is often followed by “Cold Perreault.”  He followed his 16-game start with a seven-game streak without a point and only an assist over a 12-game stretch.  More recently his problem has been intermittent absences from the lineup due to injury.  He missed four games in December to a lower-body injury, another in January to the same problem, and four more in March to an arm injury.  In all, Perreault has missed 11 of the last 38 games, over which he is 8-9-17. He has been solid when in the lineup, but the trick has been keeping him there.  On the other hand, Anaheim is 8-1-2 in those 11 games Perreault missed.

On the other side of the ledger the Ducks have allowed an average of 2.86 goals per game over their 6-6-2 run.  And frankly, goaltending has not been what it was before the game in the fresh air.  Jonas Hiller, who authored the 3-0 shutout of the Kings at Dodger Stadium, was 24-6-4, 2.34, .915 after that game.  Since then Hiller is 3-4-2, 2.53, .909.  The fall of backup Frederik Andersen has been more pronounced.  Having a 13-2-0, 1.87, .933 line before the Stadium Series game, he is 3-2-0, 3.14, .908 since then.

Here is how the teams compare overall…

1.  March means “Mischief.”  At least if you are Patrick Maroon.  Young Mr. Maroon, a 6^th round draft pick of the Philadelphia Flyers in 2007 (of course), is tied for fifth in the NHL in fighting majors.  However, as they say in Billboard Magazine, “fifth with a bullet.”  Maroon has 89 penalty minutes in 48 games this season, but since March 1^st he has three fighting majors and 27 minutes in penalties.  He is not totally without skill within the rules, seeing as he is 6-11-17 with two game-winning goals this season.

2.  If “Carlzner” is a thing in Washington, then perhaps “Pertzlaf” is a thing in Anaheim.  No pair of teammates has more goals as a pair this season than the 65 that Ryan Getzlaf (29) and Corey Perry (36) have combined for (Alex Ovechkin and pick one: Troy Brouwer or Joel Ward also have 65).  “Carlzner" will be busy.

3.  Anaheim would appear to have left their power play in Chavez Ravine.  The Ducks recorded power plays in three straight games before their contest at Dodger Stadium, but starting with their 3-0 win over the Kings on that night, the Ducks are 3-for-48 on the power play since (6.3 percent), 2-for-33 at home (6.1 percent).  That penalty kill has not been very good, either.  Since their win in Dodger Stadium the Ducks are 42-for-53 on the PK (79.3 percent).

4.  Odd facts…Anaheim is the picture of consistency in one respect.  They have allowed 55 goals in the first periods of games, 55 goals in the second period, and 55 goals in the third period… The Ducks are front-runners. Anaheim is tied for 21^st (with Calgary) in winning percentage when trailing after two periods… On the other hand, when they trail first, they have the best winning percentage in the league, the only club with one that is above .500 (18-12-2).

5.  Perhaps the Ducks’ wandering since the Stadium Series game is a “correction” of sorts.  Anaheim leads the league in shooting percentage in 5-on-5 close score situations (10.8 percent).  However, there is little difference in shooting percentage in these situations in the games leading up to the Stadium Series (11.0 percent) and those thereafter (10.4 percent).  There is, however, a substantial difference in power play shooting percentages: 12.6 percent in the games leading up to the Stadium Series and 5.3 percent thereafter. 

1.  The Caps have done rather well against the Ducks since the 2004-2005 lockout, going 5-2-1, including 3-0-0 in Anaheim.  If history is a guide, this will be a high-scoring game, at least for one team.  In five of the last seven meetings, the winning team scored at least five goals.  In the last two games in Anaheim, the teams battled to 6-4 and 7-6 decisions, the Caps winning both.

2.  The Caps have played passably on defense lately, if outcomes are your thing.  Since dropping a home-and-home to the Philadelphia Flyers and allowing 11 goals in the process, the Caps have allowed 15 goals in six games and did not allow more than three in any of them.  Considering this included games against the likes of Boston, Pittsburgh (twice), and Toronto (a high-scoring team), it was not bad.

3.  Over the same six games, though, the Caps scored only 13 goals and were shut out twice.  Only eight of those goals were scored at even strength.  Probably an important factor in the Caps going only 3-3-0 in those six games.

4.  The Caps are 12-for-32 on the power play since the Olympic break (37.5 percent).  The flip side of that is that in their last seven games in which they did not score a power play goal they are 2-5-0.

5.  Not sure what to make of this, whether an anomaly or the Caps coming out of a funk.  Starting with their 6-4 loss to the Flyers on March 5^th, the Caps went four of five games without scoring a goalin a 5-on-5 close score situation.  In their last two games, wins over Vancouver and Toronto, the Caps shooting 19.1 percent in those situations (4-for-21).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Anaheim: Andrew Cogliano

Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry are the heavy airframes, the jumbos who can use their size and strength to create and finish opportunities.  On the other hand there is Andrew Cogliano.  Not blessed with great size, he does have uncommon speed.  Perhaps nowhere is that talent more evident than in his being able to score shorthanded.  Cogliano has five shorthanded goals over the past two seasons.  Only Boston’s Brad Marchand has more (six).  The Capitals’ power play no doubt will be an important piece in this game, but fumble the puck, and Cogliano can make them pay at the other end.  He is 2-1-3 in six career games against the Caps.  Neither of the goals were shorthanded.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

When Alex Ovechkin returned from the Sochi Olympics, fans might have been concerned that the disappointment of not medaling in his home country would carry over to his performance with the Caps.  When Ovechkin went 4-3-7 in his first four games back, fans might have been relieved.  Not so fast.  In his last six games Ovechkin is 1-0-1, minus-8, and his minus-31 is 847^th of 848 skaters in the league.  He is without an even-strength point since he had an even-strength goal and assist against Florida on February 27^th, making it 11 straight games without an even-strength point.  He is a “minus” player in his last nine straight games (minus-14 overall).  Needless to say, if the Caps are to make a push in these last four weeks of the season, Ovechkin is going to have to raise his game, especially at even strength.

Keys:

1.  Even-Even.  Anaheim has the second best ratio of goals scored to goals allowed at 5-on-5 in the league.  They do not seem to do it with possession, though.  The Ducks rank just 17th in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (49.9 percent)  and just 15^th in Fenwick-for percentage (50.3 percent).  If the Caps can play the Ducks even at evens and make this a special teams game, their chances improve.

2.  Play 60.  That Anaheim record when trailing after two periods lurks in the background in this game, and given that the Caps have coughed up two-goal leads in the third period in three of their last ten games (to Florida, Philadelphia, and Vancouver), it is a concern.

3.  Captain, My Captain…Not Their Captain.  This could come down to which captain has the better game, Anaheim’s Ryan Getzlaf or Washington’s Alex Ovechkin.  Getzlaf is tied for second in the league in scoring, but while he has six assists over his last eight games, he has not registered a goal.  It is his longest goal drought of the season and longest since late in the 2011-2012 season.  Ovechkin’s difficulties in recent games were chronicled above.  If one of these guys breaks through at the expense of other, his will be the happy team at the end of the night.

In the end…

The Caps need to do something that has been very difficult for them to do in recent years, win on the west coast.  The notable exception to that rule has been the Caps’ experience in Anaheim.  This being the first of the three-game swing through California, it sets up as nice as one could ask for as a momentum builder.  But lose, and the next two games look that much tougher.

Capitals 4 – Ducks 3

Washington Capitals: A TWO-point Night -- Game 69: Capitals 4 - Maple Leafs 2

Two points.

The Washington Capitals earned them this afternoon by jumping on the Toronto Maple Leafs early, withstanding a Maple Leaf assault of shots in the second period, then playing a smart tactical game in the third period punctuated by a Troy Brouwer empty net goal with 3.9 seconds left to give the Caps a 4-2 win over the Maple Leafs at Verizon Center.

The Caps threatened to run the Maple Leafs out of the building in the first period, posting three goals over a span of 5:10 to take a 3-0 lead.  The Caps lit the lamp after Mike Green rang the iron to the right of goalie James Reimer on a power play.  The Caps recoverd the puck and worked it back around the formation – Alex Ovechkin to Mike Green at the top of the offensive zone, over to Nicklas Backstrom at the right wing wall, down to Marcus Johansson at the goal line extended to Reimer’s left, back out to Troy Brouwer in the slot.  A one timer later and it was Caps 1 – Maple Leafs 0.

Just over two minutes later it was the Caps’ third line grinding out a goal.  All three players on that line – Joel Ward, Jason Chimera, and Eric Fehr – worked the wall from the goal line in, Ward moving the puck out of the left wing corner behind the net and up the wall to Fehr.  Carl Gunnarson shouldered Fehr to the ice, but not before Fehr slid the puck back down the wall where Chimera could find it. Chimera kicked it out to Karl Alzner at the top of the offensive zone.  Alzner fired, but Reimer did not play the puck cleanly, the puck squirting out to his right.  It was just enough room for Ward to outduel Dion Phaneuf for the puck, Ward chipping it to the goal mouth and off the skate of Jason Chimera past Reimer as he was tumbling to the ice.

Less than two minutes later and the Caps on another power play, Evgeny Kuznetsov started the play from the right wing wall, sending the puck to Joel Ward in the slot.  Ward sent it right back, allowing Kuznetsov to restart the play.  As Kuznetsov was receiving the puck from Ward, Dustin Penner was setting up at the edge of the crease to Reimer’s left.  There were two pieces to the plot unfolding at this point, Kuznetsov looking for a passing lane and Penner peeking into the slot to see if a teammate was there.  When Kuznetsov sent the puck to Penner, the peeking paid off.  Penner backhanded a pass through the crease right on the stick of Joel Ward.  Ward got the goal that he might have thought he had less than three minutes earlier, slamming the puck past Reimer into the back of the Toronto net to make it 3-0.

If the two-goal lead is the most dangerous in hockey, the three-goal lead might be the most exasperating.  Toronto got one back late in the third period when a bouncing puck in the Caps’ end eluded Nicklas Backstrom in the high slot.  Troy Bodie jumped on it and flipped a shot over Jaroslav Halak’s blocker and under the cross bar to make it 3-1 at the first intermission.

The Maple Leafs closed to within a goal eight minutes into the second period when Dion Phaneuf slid off to the left point and wristed a floater that somehow did not hit any of the five players who looked to be in the path of the shot.  Halak never saw the puck flying past him, and it was 3-2, Caps, with the Leafs grabbing the momentum.

That would be as close as Toronto would get, though.  Halak shut the door over the rest of the second period, especially when Toronto would end up with three power plays.  In the third the Caps played more intelligently and stifled the Leaf’s attempts at regaining the momentum they had in the second period. Toronto managed only seven shots on goal in the third period, none in the last 4:57 of the game.  When Troy Brouwer banked one off the boards in front of the players’ bench from about 140 feet, and Nicklas Backstrom safeguarded the shot into the Maple Leafs’ net for the empty netter, it was a 4-2 win for the Caps.

Other stuff…

-- Nice symmetry for Joel Ward today.  His assist on the Chimera goal was his 20^th of the season, the second time he hit the 20-assist mark in his career and first since he had 21 in 2009-2010 with Nashville.  His goal was his 20^th of the season, the first time he reached that mark in his seven-year career.

-- OK, let’s get this out of the way quick.  Alex Ovechkin was minus-2 and is now minus-31.  Only Edmonton’s Nail Yakupov among 848 skaters this season has a bigger minus (minus-33).  Here’s the thing, though.  This is supposed to be because Ovechkin doesn’t play defense.  He has been on ice for as many goals against as James van Riemsdyk, and fewer than six other forwards.  He’s not inspiring as a defensive player, but it could be worse.

-- Speaking of Ovechkin, he had just one shot on goal, that coming at the 9:15 mark of the third period.

-- Chimera’s goal broke a 12-game streak without one.  It had been his longest streak without a goal since he had a 16-game drought in November.

-- Karl Alzner’s two assists represent his first multi-point game of the season and first since he had three assists in a 7-6 win over Anaheim on February 16, 2011.  It was his first multi-point game at home in his career.

-- The Caps had 33 shots on goal, 18 of them from four players: Mike Green (5), Troy Brouwer (5), Jason Chimera (4), and Joel Ward (4).

-- The Caps allowed the Maple Leafs – the number three power play going into the game – only power play three opportunities.  That made it seven straight games in which the Caps faced three or fewer shorthanded situations.  In those games the Caps are 13-for-16 killing penalties (81.3 percent).

-- On the other side, the Caps were 2-for-4 on the power play, making them 12-for-32 over their last ten games (37.5 percent).

-- Admit it…when Jason Chimera was whacked on a breakaway by Jake Gardiner with just 3:02 left, you were screaming, “penalty shot!”  You want Chimera taking that shot?  He does not have a shootout goal since the 2006-2007 season with Columbus.  Take the penalty.

-- We are sure he did not know it at the time, but if Nicklas Backstrom had nudged that last shot by Troy Brouwer the last 18 inches into the net, the goal would have lifted him into a tie for eighth in points in the league.  As it is, his 66 points (he did have an assist for the game) is tied for tenth with three other players: Evgeni Malkin, John Tavares, and Joe Pavelski.

-- When Brouwer scored that goal it cemented the win for the Caps and dropped the Maple Leafs to 2-15-5 when allowing four or more goals, their only two wins coming in extra time.

-- The Caps took 28 draws in the offensive end (winning 13 – 46.4 percent), only 20 in the defensive end (winning 14 – 70.0 percent).

-- Note that while the NHL’s play-by-play shot distances have a bit of quirkiness in them, the official record had the Caps scoring their first three goals from a combined distance of 32 feet.  It is not often you see the Caps getting that kind of – or volume of – net pressure.

In the end…

It was a good weekend – four out of four points and just the thing the Caps need to send them west for what promises to be a challenging trip to California.  Let us not kid ourselves, though.  The Caps are moving up in weight class in a big way with these opponents coming up, but the Caps got good scoring balance this weekend, disciplined play for the most part (only six shorthanded situations faced, all of them killed off) and timely goaltending.  It is not a bad recipe for success.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 22

Week 22 was a week that might have been supremely satisfying, but when it was over was something of a disappointment, what with two losses to a hated rival and a win that was all too close for comfort.  And some of the same things that went wrong in Week 21 went wrong in Week 22.

Record: 1-2-0

Week 22 was the second straight below-.500 week for the Caps and the fourth in the last seven weeks.  The two losses came to the Pittsburgh Penguins in a home-and-home back-to-back set that opened the week.  The losses made the Caps 0-7-0 against the Penguins under head coach Adam Oates and 0-8-0 overall since January 2012.  The eight consecutive regular season wins is a record for the Penguins in the history of this series.  Once upon a time, the Caps won nine in a row in this series, but Alex Ovechkin was two months old when the Caps won the last of those nine games in November 1985.

Washington salvaged a measure of the week with a 4-3 win over the Vancouver Canucks on Friday.  It was the first time the Caps beat the Canucks since winning a 5-2 decision at Verizon Center on October 13, 2008.  The Caps had dropped four straight decisions to Vancouver.  All in all, the Caps started the week in 5^th place in the Metropolitan Division and 10^th place in the Eastern Conference.  They ended the week in those same positions, three points behind Philadelphia for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.

Offense: 2.00/game (season: 2.78 / rank: 14th)

It was an uneven week for the Caps in the offensive end of the ice, and what offense they could muster was generally weak.  The Caps managed only two goals on 65 shots in two games against the Penguins, potting both against Pittsburgh backup Jeff Zatkoff in the game at Verizon Center to open the week, then getting shutout by Marc-Andre Fleury in Pittsburgh in the second of the back-to-back games.

One thing the Penguins were able to do that most teams could not was hold down Alex Ovechkin’s shot totals.  Ovechkin went into the week averaging 5.35 shots per game, his 332 shots being tops in the league by 86 shots over Toronto’s Phil Kessel.  Ovechkin was held to a total of five shots over the two games against the Penguins.  Goals from Eric Fehr and Nicklas Backstrom in the first of the games and none in the second was not enough to make up the difference.

The Caps got well, to a point, against Vancouver.  Washington scored three goals in less than 33 minutes with eight different Caps sharing in the points.  Evgeny Kunzetsov, playing in his third NHL game had assists on the last two of those three goals.  The Caps would need a third assist from Kuznetsov after the Canucks tied the game in the third period.  They got it when he and Nicklas Backstrom set up Mike Green for the game-winner to close the week.

Defense: 2.67/game (season: 2.91 / rank: 23rd)

It was a strange week in the defensive end of the ice.  The Caps out-shot the Penguins badly (33-20) in the first game of the week and lost, 3-2.  They held their own in shots in the second game of the Penguins, Pittsburgh holding a two-shot margin (34-32) at the end and beating the Caps, 2-0.  Then, in the last game of the week, Vancouver rang up 41 shots to 21 for the Caps, yet the Caps won, 4-3. 

It was an equal opportunity week for being present for goals against, too.  Sixteen different skaters were on ice for opponents’ goals.  Dmitry Orlov was on ice for five goals against for the week, most of any Capital.  Orlov’s difficulties might have contributed to his being moved to the third defensive pair with Connor Carrick off the second pair with Mike Green.  Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom were on ice for four apiece to lead, so to speak, the forwards.  Only Dustin Penner and Tom Wilson escaped having a goal-against on ice marked in their ledger.

It was an odd possession week for the Caps.  Both their Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages were on the good side of 50 percent in 5-on-5 close score situations for the week (52.3 percent and 54.7 percent, respectively), and yet their record was 1-2-0.  The Caps dominated Pittsburgh in the first game of the week (58.6 percent and 64.3 percent) in close score situations and lost.  That was the game that ran against expectations, given the underlying possession numbers.  In the rematch against the Pens the Caps lost the possession battle (43.3 percent/42.6 percent) and lost the game.  In the last game of the week the Caps won the close score possession matchup (55.6 percent and 59.0 percent) and won.  

Goaltending: 2.71 / .916 (season: 2.80 / .915 / 3 SO)

Week 22 belonged to the new guy, Jaroslav Halak, who got all the minutes.  While he played well in spots, he did not move the needle this week in terms of the goaltending numbers overall, his goals against average and save percentage for the week being almost identical to the season numbers so far.  What he lacked was consistency by period.  Halak allowed at least one first period goal in each game, stopping 29 of 33 shots overall (.879 save percentage).  He allowed goals in the third period twice for the week, once in the second game against Pittsburgh, twice against Vancouver to finish the week with 29 third period saves on 32 shots (.906).  It was in the second period in which Halak shined, stopping 29 of 30 shots (.967 save percentage).

Power Play: 2-for-8 / 25.0 percent (season: 23.3 percent / rank: 2nd)

This week, the power play was the product of persistence.  It was the fourth week in the last five in which the Caps finished with a power play conversion rate of 25 percent or better, but it did not come easy.  Washington had two power play goals on 21 shots (9.5 percent shooting) over 12:56 of total power play time.  For shots on goal the Caps did not lack.

Nine different Caps had power play shots on goal, four of them – Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Jason Chimera, and Troy Brouwer – getting three apiece.  Ovechkin and Backstrom were the only ones to convert during the week.  It was perhaps the frustration the power play had against the Penguins, the number-one penalty killing team in the league when they faced the Caps, that tipped the week into the red.  The Caps were 1-for-6 against the Penguins, registering their only goal on a total of 16 shots on goal (6.25 percent shooting).

Penalty Killing: 7-for-8 / 87.5 percent (season: 80.6 percent / rank: T-24th)

We have said it before, but with this team the key is more controlling opportunities for the opposition on the power play more than stopping them once they have to kill a penalty.  A suspect penalty killing squad limits its exposure and marshals its effort when the chances are few.  Such was the case this week, with opponents getting only eight power play opportunities.  Three games with three or fewer made it six straight contests in which the Caps held opponents to that threshold.  Going 7-for-8 on the penalty kill made it 10-for-13 over that same span.  A 76.9 percent penalty kill over the last six games is hardly the picture of efficiency, hence the need to keep chances down.

It seemed to be more a case of the goaltender being the best penalty killer in Week 22.  Jaroslav Halak stopped 17 of 18 power play shots in 13:19 of ice time, a .944 save percentage that is far better than his .883 save percentage in shorthanded situations overall.  There is a lingering problem with the Caps and penalty killing.  Their shutdown guys are not doing much shutting down.. John Carlson (32) and Karl Alzner (28) rank first and fourth on the list of defensemen having power play goals scored against on-ice this season.

Even Strength Goals Scored For/Against: 4-7 (season 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio: 0.90 / rank: 21st)

The Caps seem stuck at that 0.90 ratio of 5-on-5 goals scored to goals against ratio.  The Caps have traded in a very narrow band, between 0.90 and 0.93 for the last three months.  They have not been as high as 0.94 since Week 9.

This week the Caps had a disturbing deficit in third period even strength goals scored.  They managed one for the week – the game winner against Vancouver to end the week – but allowed three.  One of them was the insurance goal in the Penguins’ 2-0 win over the Caps on Tuesday, and two of them allowed Vancouver to tie their game against the Caps on Friday.

The Caps were out-shot for the week at evens, 77-65.  That was largely a product of being lapped by the Canucks in Friday’s game.  Vancouver out-shot the Caps by a 34-16 margin at even strength.  Couple that with the shooting efficiency – the Caps shot to a 6.2 percent mark, while opponents finished at 11.1 percent – and it made for a difficult week for the Caps.

Faceoffs: 72-157 / 45.9 percent (season: 49.1 percent / rank: 21st)

Week 22 was more two different weeks for the Caps in the faceoff circle, the one they played against the Penguins and the one they played against the Canucks.  The Caps were abused by the Penguins on faceoffs over their back-to-back set, winning only 37 of 99 draws (37.4 percent).  It was probably not quite as bad as it seems, though.  A lot of that was piled up in the neutral zone where the Caps were just 4-for-30 over the two games (13.3 percent).  In the offensive end they were 18-for-40 (45.0 percent) and 15-for-29 in the defensive zone (51.7 percent). 

Against Vancouver it was a different story, mostly – but not entirely – good.  The Caps were 35-for-58 against the Canucks overall (60.3 percent), but they took 24 of 58 total draws in their own end (18 in the offensive end).  Winning 18 of them (75.0 percent) lessened the pain of taking so many defensive zone draws, but that was more time spent starting plays in the Caps’ end of the ice than one might like to see.

Goals for/Against by Period:

The Caps started and ended games poorly, if the goal differential by period means much.  Outscored 4-2 in the opening period of games and by a 3-1 margin in the third, it was a recipe for a 1-2-0 week. If not for a Mike Green laser in the third period – the Caps' only third period goal of the week – the Caps might have lost the lead entirely against Vancouver after building a two-goal lead and making it an 0-3-0 or 0-2-1 wek, the last think this club needs at this time of year.

In the End…

It could have been better.  The optimist might say that the Caps outplayed the Penguins in the first game of the week and shot in bad luck.  That makes for interesting bar discussion or blog narrative, but the fact is that the Caps earned no points while looking better is no consolation.  Week 22 ended up being the fifth losing week in the last nine for the Capitals, and if you are keeping score on their tough 14-game stretch to open March, the Caps are 3-4-1 in their first eight games with a west coast trip yet to come. 

The Caps have four games coming up in Week 23, including that trip to California to face Anaheim, San Jose, and Los Angeles after their contest against Toronto on Sunday afternoon.  Splitting these four games is about the least the club can afford at this stage.  Anything less, and the Caps are going to find themselves fading out of the playoff conversation.