That Time of Year Comes Early...uh, Earli-ER for the Washington Capitals and Their Fans

If you are a Washington Capitals fan, you know that you should have your golf clubs in the trunk of your car by mid-April every year.  If there is anything as constant as the North Star, it is that the Caps will hit the links sooner than you would expect and certainly sooner than you would like.  This year, tee times come even earlier than we would have imagined as the Caps will miss the playoffs for the first time in seven seasons.

With that, we bring you a brief guide to golf from the perspective of the Caps fan...

It always helps to get limber after a long winter of sitting in your recliner throwing shoes at the TV over the fact that the bottom pair of defensemen you have been cheering for weren't exactly making the Hershey Bears a juggernaut when they spent big chunks of their seasons there.

Don't be late for tee times.  It annoys your foursome partners, it tears up the course, and it's...uh, hard on the equipment, if you know what I mean.

If you are still bitter over how the Caps' season went, make sure you get it all out of your system before heading to the course.  Otherwise, you're probably just going to embarrass yourself and waste a ton in greens fees.

If you are riding with your partner, and he shouts "OVIE ON A BREAKAWAY!" do not...repeat, do NOT take him up on the challenge.

Caps fans... don't ruin the enjoyment of other golfers at the range by trying this sort of "one-timer."  It's over, let it go.  

Oh, look...George McPhee and Adam Oates are hitting the links, too.  Looks like how they steered the club this year.

Well, if you can't take the Stanley Cup to the mountain top, there's always golf.

Color us unimpressed.  A Caps fan, given the practice they get, should be able to do this backwards and blindfolded.

Caps fan?...Yeah, Caps fan.

Looks like George and Adam are getting in an extra nine.

Metaphor for the Caps' season...

Thanks to the folks here, who put all these images and more in one place

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 80: Capitals at Hurricanes, April 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Once upon a time, the Washington Capitals played in what folks called the “Southeast Division.” In this division were teams from exotic places like Miami, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Raleigh. The Caps used to win a lot of games back then because, well, folks in the Southeast are a whole lot better at college football than they are at hockey. The only thing they seemed to think ice was good for was to keep the drinks cold at the Florida-Georgia football game. 

“Aren’t you being a bit harsh, cousin?”

Why do you say that, Fearless?

“Because two of those teams won Stanley Cups?”

Yeah, well, there is that…

The Carolina Hurricanes are one of those old Southeast Division teams that won a Stanley Cup once upon a time (2006, for those who do not remember). These days, though, they have endured harder times. A refugee of the Southeast that ended up in the Metropolitan Division, like the Caps, the Hurricanes are out of playoff contention, like the Caps, as they prepare to host Washington on Thursday night. This will be their fifth consecutive season to miss the playoffs, unlike the Caps, their longest absence from the post season since the club moved to Carolina from Hartford in for the 1997-1998 season.

It is a team that has been nothing if not consistently inconsistent this season:

• Longest winning streak: four games, and they have only one of those
• Longest losing streak: five (they have two…this is not a very good team)
• Longest streak of games with a power play goal: four
• Longest streak of games without a power play goal: seven
• Longest streak of games not allowing a power play goal: five
• Longest streak of games allowing a power play goal: six

The have been alternating wins and losses for almost a month. On March 16th they lost to Edmonton. That was followed by: win, loss, win, loss, win, two losses, two wins, two losses. Carolina is 5-5-2 over those 12 games.

One thing the Hurricanes have done reasonably well over those 12 games is convert power plays. They are 9-for-38 in that span (23.7 percent), have power play goals scored in seven of those games, and they were 4-2-1 when they did score power play goals.

On the other hand, the penalty killers have been doubly good. First, there is the volume of shorthanded situations faced. Carolina has just 31 such situations faced over their last dozen games (2.6/game). Three times they faced just one shorthanded situation. Second, there is the efficiency. Carolina is 27-for-31 in those dozen games (87.1 percent), although if you are looking for an ominous sign from the Hurricanes’ perspective, it would be that half the goals they allowed on the power play over their last 12 games came in their last contest, one in which they allowed two to the New York Rangers in a 4-1 loss.

If anything, Carolina has suffered problems that would be recognizable to Caps fans. Their Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentage in 5-on-5 close score situations in their last 12 games are troublesome, but not awful (47.3/46.2). What is hurting them is a huge shot differential in those situations, more than four shots per 60 minutes of ice time in those situations. Even with a .930 save percentage in close score situations over the last 12 games, Carolina has found itself overall on the minus side in goals scored (21) and goals allowed (23), good enough to be mediocre, not bad enough to be awful. Very much like their season overall...like the Caps.

Here is how the two teams compare overall:

1. Carolina can be dangerous on the penalty kill. Through Tuesday night's games only three teams were in double digits in shorthanded goals, and the Hurricanes (10) happen to be one of them. Seven different Carolina players have at least one; three players – Eric Staal, Nathan Gerbe, and Patrick Dwyer each have two. Eleven Hurricanes have shorthanded points. They spread it around.

2. Carolina does reasonably well in one-goal games (18-9-11, a .618 points percentage and roughly a 100-point pace over 82 games). Multi-goal decisions are another matter. Carolina is 16-25 in games decided by two or more goals.

3.  In their last dozen games The Brothers Staal (Eric and Jordan) are a combined 5-6-11.  That would be a really good scoring line for one or the other, but not both.  Add in Alexander Semin’s 3-0-3 in those same dozen games, and that is 14 points in 12 games out of three players that comprise $21.3 million of the salary cap.  Jordan Staal has had an especially rough time of it lately, coming into this game without a point in his last seven games.

4.  Carolina might be a team in a goalie transition.  The question is, transition to what?  Three goalies have dressed for the Hurricanes this season, three Hurricane goalies have logged more than 1,000 minutes.  Anton Khudobin has received most of the work: 34 appearances and 1,959 minutes.  He happens to be seventh in the league goals against average (2.14) and second in save percentage (.931).  Two of them came earlier this year against the Caps.  He is 2-0-0, 2.47, .932 in those games.

5.  Carolina does a fairly good job of staying close in games.  They are 14^th in the league in total ice time spent in 5-on-5 close score situations.  But they are not very successful in keeping games close, at least in terms of taking advantage by outscoring their opposition.  Their goals scored/goals allowed is a minus-14 for the season.  Only seven teams are worse.  

1.  There are sixteen players who have ten or more points for the Caps this season.  Four of them will not skate in this game.  Steve Oleksy (10) is in Hershey, Brooks Laich (15) and Mike Green (38) are injured, and Martin Erat (24) is in Phoenix.

2.  There are 103 defensemen in the league with 75 or more hits on their ledger this season.  The Caps have none of them (John Carlson: 72). On the other hand, for you real time stats fans, Carlson (176/4^th) and Karl Alzner (150/19^th) rank in the top 20 among defensemen in blocked shots.

3.  The Caps have four players in the top 17 power play point producers: Nicklas Backstrom (43/1st), Alex Ovechkin (38/2nd), Marcus Johansson (21/T-17th) and Troy Brouwer (21/T-17th).

4.  The Caps have earned points in 34 one-goal games (21 wins, 13 extra time losses). Only four teams have more (Colorado, Minnesota, Detroit, and New Jersey).

5.  Only three teams in the league have a worse shots-for percentage at even strength than the Caps (46.7 percent): Edmonton, Toronto, and Buffalo. 

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina:  Jeff Skinner

Jeff Skinner has been rolling merrily along lately, posting points in seven of his last nine games (5-3-8), continuing a certain late-season streakiness. Starting March 7^th he had a four-game points streak, then went four games without a point before embarking on this latest scoring run.  Skinner, the 2011 winner of the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie, is tied for the lead with Edmonton’s Jordan Eberle in his 2011 rookie class in career goals with 95.  His 31 goals to date this season ties the career high he set in his rookie season.  In 20 career games against the Caps he is 7-10-17.

Washington: Jason Chimera

Jason Chimera, who is a member of arguably the Capitals’ most effective line since the Olympic break if not the season, has had a dry spell lately. He has been sitting on the cusp of a new career high in points for five games now.  His goal against Boston on March 29^th brought him to 14 goals and 38 points for the season, the latter being one off his career high of 39 set with the Caps in 2011-2012.  That goal against the Bruins is his only point in his last nine games over which the Caps are 3-3-3. His secondary scoring, part of the third line (with Eric Fehr and Joel Ward) that has been just about the best thing for the Caps this season, is an important part of the Caps’ success.  That third line has a total of 49 goals this season.  Quite an accomplishment if they can get their own “50 goal” season.

Keys:

1.  Be strong.  Yeah, it’s over, but there is something to be said for being professional and playing the right way.

…that’s pretty much it.

In the end…

We are at the end.  The team that was purportedly built to be a playoff team for a decade or more sees its streak of post-season appearances end at six seasons.  Truth be told, this club has not been on a short list of contenders since they were dumped in the first round of the 2010 playoffs (even though we picked them to win the Cup this season).  The last three seasons they have had to rely on fast finishes just to make the playoffs.  In 2011-2012 they finished 10-4-2 to tie Ottawa in points and grab a seventh-seed.  In 2012-2013 they went 9-1-1 in April to take the Southeast Division’s only berth in the playoffs while finishing tied for fourth in points in the Eastern Conference.  This year, that finishing kick never came.  We are left thinking a little humility is needed.  Our prognostications were not all that great, and this club, well…

Capitals 4 – Hurricanes 3

Washington Capitals: A TWO-point Night -- Game 79: Capitals 4 - Blues 1

They have life in them yet.

The Washington Capitals avoided elimination from the post-season on Tuesday night when they defeated the St. Louis Blues, 4-1, at Scottrade Center in St. Louis.  It was a case of the big guns stepping up – Alex Oveckhin recorded his 50th goal, Nicklas Backstrom scored twice, and Braden Holtby took advantage of an unexpected start to stop 28 of 29 shots to get his 22nd win of the season.

Ovechkin got the Caps on the board first late in the second period on a power play after St. Louis missed a chance for a shorthanded goal at the other end.  After Vladimir Sobotka’s shorthanded drive sailed high and wide over Holtby’s blocker, the Caps took the puck the other way and reset their 1-3-1 power play formation.  John Carlson laid out the puck to the left wing circle where Ovechkin one-timed it to the far side past goalie Ryan Miller’s glove, off the pipe, and in for the game’s first tally.

St. Louis got it back early in the second period when, for what seemed to be part of a never-ending loop of film this season, the Caps could not clear the puck out of their own end.  Steve Ott finally held the puck in at the left point and threw to the Washington net.  Julien Brouillette tried to block the shot, but the puck slid past where Maxim Lapierre kicked it to his stick and flicked it past Holtby to tie the game.

Less than six minutes later the Caps regained the lead they would not give back.  It was all Mikhail Grabovski.  The Caps center-turned-winger skated the puck into the Blues zone and dialed his own number for a shot on Miller from the high slot.  He whiffed on the attempt but maintained control of the puck, turning through the left wing circle.  He stopped, looked over the defense, and with Eric Fehr occupying Alex Pietrangelo in the left wing circle, Grabovski stepped up and fired the puck past Miller to make it 2-1, Caps.

Then, the Hammer of Thor pounded the Blues into submission (geez, cuz… a little much, huh?).  In the space of 96 seconds spanning the second and third periods, Nicklas Backstrom ended the suspense over whether the Caps could hold their lead.  At the 18:50 mark of the period, the Caps finished a play that took advantage of a gambit that has been played on them over much of the season – gaining the offensive zone with speed.  Alex Ovechkin skated the puck smartly down the right wing into the Blues’ zone, leading a three-man rush.  As Ovechkin moved the puck down the wall, Backstrom was filling in the middle.  With Barrett Jackman backing in too low in the slot and T.J. Oshie unable to close the distance from behind in time, Backstrom took a feed from Ovechkin between the circles and snapped the puck off the far post and in to make it  3-1.

That would not be the last consequential action of the second period.  Jaden Schwartz got caught with his hand in the cookie jar, or more precisely on John Carlson’s stick, with 53 seconds left in the period to put the Blues down a man for the rest of the frame and to start the third period.  Just 16 seconds into the final period Backstrom put the cherry on the sundae by finishing off a fine three-man passing play.  John Carlson started it at the top of the offensive zone by hinting at a shot, then sending the puck to Alex Ovechkin in the left wing circle.  Having been burned already by Ovechkin on a one-timer earlier in the game, the entire Blues defense slid toward Ovechkin.  However, Ovechkin more-or-less one timed a pass through the middle to Backstrom on the right wing.  Backstrom inched to his left to improve his shooting angle and take advantage of a developing screen in front of Ryan Miller.  Backstrom snapped off a shot, and it pinged off the far post and in to give the Caps their last goal of the evening in the 4-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- It figures that Ovechkin would get his 50^th goal of the season on a power play.  It was, after all, his league-leading 23^rd power play goal.  It would also figure that it would come on a one-timer, his signature shot.  It might also figure that in scoring that goal, he dented the puck.

-- Nicklas Backstrom’s two goals represented his first two-goal game since scoring two against the Philadelphia Flyers (including the game-winner) in the Caps’ 7-0 win on November 1^st.

-- The Caps started Tyson Strachan, Connor Carrick, and Julien Brouillette on defense.  Among them they have 116 games of experience this season… with the Hershey Bears.  They have a combined 53 games with the Caps.  In Game 79 of the season for the Caps…not what one would have expected.

-- Tom Wilson had a quiet night.  No penalties, no fights, no points, one shot on goal, one hit.  But he did get 11:37 in ice time, his first time over ten minutes in four games and his third highest total this season.

-- It is not often that Nicklas Backstrom will record more shots on goal than Alex Ovechkin has shot attempts, but there it is.  Backstrom had six shots on goal, Ovechkin had two shot on goal and two attempts blocked.

-- 27.6.  Are we reading that right?... 27.6?  Yup.  The Caps were 16-for-58 in the faceoff circle, which is 27.6 percent.  They were 4-for-17 in the offensive zone  (23.5 percent), 5-for-23 in the neutral zone (21.7 percent).  The Blues couldn’t do better against air.

-- John Carlson had a pair of assists, his first multi-point game since February 27^th against Florida.  He also had 26:35 in ice time.  His performance came none too soon with Mike Green out of the lineup.

-- Mikhail Grabovski had the game-winning goal and has points in two of his last three games. However, he did not skate in the last six minutes of the contest and had only 12 minutes and change for the night.  Hopefully, it was just giving him a breather after the Caps took a three-goal lead, letting him continue easing back into game shape after missing about two months to injury.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov apparently does few things on a hockey rink without flair.  In the space of a few short seconds he hooked Kevin Shattenkirk, then tossed a stick to defenseman Karl Alzner, who snapped his as play continued.  Both, unfortunately for Kuznetsov and the Caps, are against the rules.  It looked good, though.  Fortunately, Shattenkirk would go off for slashing Troy Brouwer 39 seconds later, and 1:04 after that Grabovski would have his goal at 4-on-4.  No harm, no foul, kid.

-- The 4-on-4 goal was Washington’s eighth of the season, tied for fifth most in the league.

-- A round of applause for Braden Holtby who, despite some ghastly possession and shot numbers for his club, stopped 28 of 29 shots in a game he was not supposed to start, but did when his colleague did (or did not, depending on when you entered your Twitter feed) begging off this game.

-- As for those ghastly possession numbers… 27.4 percent Corsi-for, 28.6 percent Fenwick-for, and 38.7 percent shots-for at 5-on-5 for the evening.

In the end…

It wasn’t pretty.  Well, it was pretty in places, but there were long stretches in which St. Louis never seemed to have to skate on the defensive side of the red line.  But hey, they don’t keep score on the basis of skate ruts/60 in the defensive zone.  The Caps won where it matters, lived to fight another day, and perhaps showed that if there is little hope left in the season, there is some pride in the way they play.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 79: Capitals at Blues, April 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Elimination Day.  It will be like this for the rest of this week, until the Washington Capitals are finally eliminated, or in the event of a miracle make the post-season.  For Tuesday, the fact is that if the Caps lose in regulation time to the St. Louis Blues, the Columbus Blue Jackets defeat the Phoenix Coyotes at home, and the Detroit Red Wings earn at least a standings point at Buffalo against the Sabres, the Caps will be officially eliminated from the post-season.

The Caps are trying to stave off elimination in one of the harshest rinks for visitors in all the NHL, Scottrade Center in St. Louis, Missouri.  For the Blues, it is home-sweet home, a venue in which they have posted 28 wins this season, tied for second most home wins in the league.  For the Capitals, it very well could be…

“The Red Mile.”

Excuse me?

“The Red Mile…  They usually call death row the Last Mile, and we called ours the Green Mile, because the floor was the color of faded limes. We had the electric chair then. Old Sparky, we called it. You might call this ‘The Red Mile,” because the last week is going to seem to take on the color of the blood on a white road jersey, the price you often pay as a hockey player to earn a win and the badge you wear when your time comes to be eliminated.”

Very poetic.  And you are…

“Paul Edgecombe.”

And you know about elimination games?

“In a manner of speaking.”

The Caps will be facing a team that in some respects resemble themselves.  In 2005-2006, the first year after the 2004-2005 lockout, the Blues were a struggling team, one that finished 21-46-15, good for fifth in the Central Division and dead last in the league’s standings.  They slowly rebuilt themselves, as did the Capitals, who finished 27^th in that 2005-2006 season, until they were competitive, then a contender.  They have, however, been somewhat disappointing in their post seasons, though (not unlike the Caps), failing to advance past the second round in either of the past two post-seasons.  However, unlike the Capitals, who seem to have had time pass them by for the present, the Blues are now poised to challenge for a Stanley Cup this season.

For the last six weeks the Blues have been a juggernaut.  Before they lost consecutive games on Saturday and Sunday to Colorado and Chicago, St. Louis went 13-3-1 from March 1 through April 3^rd.  Even though they do have those consecutive losses making them 13-5-1 since March 1^st, they are poised to set a franchise record for standings points in a season.  With 111 points they are three short of their all-time high, 114 points in 1999-2000.  Their 52 wins is a record for the club.

In that 13-5-1 run the Blues have been the champions of the one-goal decision, going 6-0-1 in one-goal decisions over that span.  It suits their profile as a club that has played games close to the vest in that time.  Since March 1^st the Blues are averaging just 2.47 goals per game.    However, unlike the Capitals, who have an uncommon lack of success in low scoring games, the Blues were 6-5-1 in games in which they scored fewer than three goals since March 1^st.

They succeed by being very stingy in their own end.  Over their last 19 games since March 1^st the Blues have allowed just 2.11 goals per game and allowed more than two goals just seven times in that span.  Drill down, and it is easy to see why the Blues don’t see that red light going on behind their goaltender very often.  In those 19 games the Blues allowed an average of just 26 shots on goal per game.  That is consistent with their season average of allowing just 26.5 shots per game, tied for second fewest in the league.

The low goals allowed and shots allowed totals over their last 19 games and for the season as a whole reflect the fact that the Blues are a good possession team.  In those 19 games since March 1^st the Blues have a Corsi-for percentage at even strength of 53.6 and a Fenwick-for percentage of 54.2.  Again, this is consistent with their season-long performance where they rank sixth in the league in Corsi-for and fifth in Fenwick-for percentage at evens.

It has come in handy for the Blues, because if there is a fly in the ointment here, it is in their shooting percentages.  St. Louis is shooting just 6.9 percent at even strength since March 1^st.  Caps fans should look at that number with alarm.  Even with this dry spell shooting the puck at even strength, the Blues are third in the league in shooting percentage at even strength for the season overall (8.9).

Here is how the teams rank overall:

1.  Special teams have been good and not as good for the Blues lately.  Since March 1^st St. Louis’ power play is so-so -- 10-for-57.  Meanwhile, their penalty killing has been very good, killing off 59 of 68 shorthanded situations (86.8 percent).

2.  St. Louis is one of four teams with five players compiling 50 or more points this season (Chicago, Colorado, and Pittsburgh are the others).  The five are: Alexander Steen (60), T. J. Oshie (60), David Backes (57), Jaden Schwartz (55), and Alex Pietrangelo (51).

3. The Blues are one of only two teams (Vancouver being the other) to have – well, have had – three players record more than 100 penalty minutes this season.  Ryan Reaves has 124 minutes (in just 59 games), David Backes has 119 minutes, and Chris Stewart had 112 minutes.  Stewart was traded to Buffalo as part of the deal on February 28^th that returned goaltender Ryan Miller and forward Steve Ott.

4.  Speaking of Miller, if he gets the call tonight it will be his third appearance against the Caps this season.  The first two came when he was wearing the blue and yellow of the Buffalo Sabres.  Not that he did poorly with that woeful team.  Miller is 2-0-0, 0.92, .975 in two Gimmick wins over the Caps this season.  And even though the colors might not have changed much in moving to St. Louis, the difference in teams is stark in an important respect.  Miller averaged seeing 35.5 shots per 60 minutes this season in Buffalo.  So far with the Blues, 25.4.  Even though his save percentage is down (from .923 with Buffalo to .915 with St. Louis), his goals against average is down more than half a goal per game (2.72 to 2.15).  As if it needs repeating, shots matter.

5.  If anything, St. Louis underperforms their possession numbers.  While they have a Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 close score situations of 53.0 (7^th in the league) and a Fenwick for-percentage of 53.1 percent (7^th), their shots-for percentage in those situations is only 51.6 percent (11^th).  Part of that is why they obtained Miller to tend goal.  The Blues are 15^th in the league in save percentage (.926) in those 5-on-5 close score situations. 

1.  With their next appearance in the Gimmick this season the Caps will set a record in the brief history of the Show of Shows for appearances in a season (21).

2.  Washington is one of two teams (San Jose is the other) with three players recording at least five goals in the trick shot phase.  Those Caps are: Nicklas Backstrom (7), Eric Fehr (5), and Mikhail Grabovski (5).  The Caps are the only team with any players taking 15 or more shots in the freestyle competition: Backstrom (16) and Alex Ovechkin (15).

3.  The Caps are without a power play goal in their last three games.  That is the first three-game streak without a power play goal since the Olympic break.  Since beating the Anaheim Ducks in their last win in regulation time on March 18^th, the Caps are 2-for-30 (6.7 percent).

4.  It might seem like an odd combination, but Backstrom is the only player in the league with at least five power play goals, 30 power play assists, and a shorthanded goal this season.  OK, he’s the only player with at least 30 power play assists.

5.  In five-on-five close score situations, the Caps rank 24^th in Corsi-for percentage, 25^th in Fenwick-for percentage, and 26^th in shots-for percentage.  Their save percentage in those situations is .923, 19^th in the league.  The Caps have had goaltending issues from time to time this season, but it has outperformed the defense in terms of doing better than possession metrics.  

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

St. Louis: Alexander Steen

When Alexander Steen took the ice on December 21^st he was fighting Alex Ovechkin for the league lead in goals with 24 to Ovechkin’s 29.  However, on that date Steen sat out the third period against the Edmonton Oilers as a result of a concussion he might have suffered three games earlier in a game against the Ottawa Senators.  He had taken a few high hits in three games after that, the accumulation of instances appearing to catch up with him against the Oilers.  Steen missed 11 games, and since his return he has not been quite as prolific in the goal-scoring department.  He had three goals in his first six games back, but then he followed it up with just three goals in his next 19 games.  He seemed to be regaining his touch in a three-game stretch to end March, scoring another three goals in those contest.  However, after skating 21 minutes against the Philadelphia Flyers on April 1^st, he has been absent for the last three games for the Blues, the suspicion being that he has suffered a recurrence of concussion-related symptoms. He did return to practice on Monday but is questionable for the game against the Caps.  He is 4-5-9 in 18 career games against Washington.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Whether one thinks Alex Ovechkin quit on a play that resulted in a goal by the Dallas Stars or that everyone quit on the play that led to that goal in what would be a 5-0 loss to the Stars, we are now at the point where it matters how one finishes when facing the end of the playoff push.  Alex Ovechkin does not give evidence of being a rah-rah sort of captain who leads with words, either in the locker room or on the bench.  That leaves leading by example.  If the Caps are to keep their dim playoff hopes alive or play with pride and honor when those hopes have been extinguished, it starts with Ovechkin.  He has to lead by example at both ends of the ice.  That does not necessarily mean getting that last goal to get to 50.  It means doing the little things that have been notoriously absent from his game for stretches this season and especially since the Olympic break.  It will not be easy, even the scoring goals part.  Ovechkin does not have a goal in Scottrade Center in his career.

Keys:

1.  Find inspiration in the little things.  The Caps got a gift from the Calgary Flames on Monday night when they shut out the New Jersey Devils, 1-0.  Do what you have to do, play little mind games, convince yourself that it is a sign that this is not over yet.

2.  First Forty for a Fast Finish.  St. Louis is one of seven teams (including the Caps) that has not lost a game in regulation when leading after two periods.  A big part of that is the fact that the Blues have allowed fewer goals in the third period (56) than every team in the league except the Boston Bruins (52). They also have more third period goals than all but three clubs.  Add to that the fact that the Blues have trailed after 40 minutes only 22 times in 78 games (third fewest in the league), and it puts a premium on the Caps being competitive early and not letting the Blues carry a lead into the third period.  Easier said than done, especially on a rink where the Blues have been so successful.

3.  Scorers score, defenders defend.  This is just the short version of the need for the Caps’ top six to perform like top-six forwards and for John Carlson and Karl Alzner to tend to business in their end.  It seems obvious, but it also seems to have been absent over the last few weeks.

In the end…

The Caps have been here before.  As they were about to take the ice for Game 79 in 20070-2008 they were two points behind the Boston Bruins for eighth place in the Eastern Conference and four points behind the Carolina Hurricanes for the Southeast Division lead.  The Caps won their last four games, Carolina lost three of their last four, and the Caps were division champions headed to the playoffs.  But here, momentum matters.  That 2007-2008 team, young and full of spit and vinegar, was already on a run that saw them go 12-4-0 over their previous 16 games leading up to that last four-game push.  These Caps, veterans of six straight seasons reaching the playoffs, are 2-3-3 in their last eight games and do not have a win in regulation in three weeks. 

Guess we’ll find out if this is a familiar path the Caps are walking or their version of The Red Mile.

Capitals 2 - Blues 1

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 25

Week 25 was a spotlight on the Washington Capitals’ season.  Four games, three losses, two losses in the Gimmick, one win, next to zero chance of making the playoffs at its conclusion. 

Record: 1-2-1

The thing about looking at games on a weekly basis is that the ebbs and flows come into sharper focus. The 1-2-1 record in Week 25 was the fourth week in five in which the Caps finished below .500 (6-7-4 over that span).  Over the last dozen weeks Washington has had seven losing weeks, compiling a record of 15-16-9.  What made it worse in Week 25 was that of the four teams the Caps played, three of them had fewer standings points, and one – Dallas, a 5-0 winner on Tuesday – was only two points ahead of the Caps in the league standings when they met.  As it was, the Caps opened the week in tenth place in the Eastern Conference, two points out of a wild card spot.  When the week ended, they were still two points out of a playoff spot, but now with three teams to pass, not two, to reach that wild card spot.

Offense: 1.75/game (season: 2.72 / rank: 14^th)

It was a dry week in the offensive end of the ice for the Caps.  And, it was not even as good as it looked.  Nicklas Backstrom had a hand in five of the seven goals scored by the Caps (2-3-5).  After that, only four other Caps recorded goals: Troy Brouwer (2), Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Joel Ward.  It was an especially frustrating week other respects as well. 

For instance, three of the clubs the Caps faced – Nashville, Dallas, and the New York Islanders – ranked in the bottom ten in scoring defense.  Then there were the goaltenders.  The Caps did manage three goals on 26 shots against Nashville backup Carter Hutton, but they could not solve him in the freestyle competition and lost.  They got only one puck past New Jersey’s Cory Schneider, who might be more of a “1a” goalie than a backup at this point, but going into his game against the Caps he was 3-3-2 in nine appearances since the Olympic break, with a 2.87 GAA and a .876 save percentage. 

The Caps managed one standings point in those two games and managed neither a goal nor a standings point against Kari Lehtonen, with whom the Caps were quite familiar from his days with the Atlanta Thrashers.  As it would turn out, Lehtonen extended his unbeaten streak against the Caps since departing Atlanta to three games, over which he has allowed only three goals on 93 shots.

Defense: 3.75/game (season: 2.90 / rank: 24^th)

Mark Twain once wrote, “facts are stubborn, but statistics are more pliable.”  The two seem to converge when it comes to the Caps’ defense.  The Caps were outshot in all four games this week, bringing to nine the number of consecutive games in which Washington was out-shot and 11 out of their last 12 contests.  The four games this week make it 54 times this season that the Caps have been out-shot by opponents, the 69.2 percent share of games being out-shot ranking third-highest in the league behind Toronto (78.5) and Buffalo (79.2).  Making it worse, the Caps have the sixth worst winning percentage in the league when they are out-shot (22-23-9, .407).

The shots-on-goal results are merely the product of the same possession woes that have plagued the Caps all season.  In 5-on-5 close score situations the Caps struggled to top 40 percent in both Corsi-for (41.6) and Fenwick-for (41.6) percentages for the week.  It should be no surprise that the Caps were outscored for the week in those situations, 9-4.  In all, the Caps have topped 50 percent in Fenwick-for percentage in these situations only 26 times in 77 games.  They are 10-12-4 in those games, but among those ten wins are four in extra time, three in the Gimmick.  

Goaltending: 3.13 / .903 (season: 2.78 / .915 / 3 shutouts)

The problem with allowing a lot of shots on goal is that it puts pressure on goalies to post high save percentages, not the easiest thing to do when random elements like pucks hitting posts and going in or hitting bodies or sticks in front and going in being a feature of the sport.  It also does not help when the goalies have an iffy week generally.  The latter was more the case for the Caps in Week 25.  Combined, Jaroslav Halak and Braden Holtby posted a 3.13 goals against average and a .903 save percentage.  They were remarkably consistent with one another, which is another way of saying remarkably mediocre.  Halak was 3.11/.904 in 154 minutes of ice time, Holtby was 3.15/.902 in 95 minutes.

Looking at the two goalies individually, their performances were not very much alike.  Halak’s week by period was a slow drift downward, as far as save percentage is concerned.  Halak’s first periods (three in all) were played to a .906 save percentage, followed by .903 in the second period (three periods, one of which he was relieved by Holtby), and .882 in the third period (two periods). 

On the other hand, Holtby was superb in the only first period in which he played, stopping 16 of 17 shots against the Islanders on Saturday (a .941 save percentage).  The other two periods were something less than superb -- .857 in the second periods of games and .889 in the third. 

Power Play: 2-17 / 11.8 percent (season: 23.0 percent / rank: 2^nd)

When your offense is so dependent on the power play, and it has a bad week, you are not going to generate a lot of offense.  The power play in Week 25 had its worst week since converting only one of 19 chances in Week 17.  The Caps started the week in good shape, converting two of four chances against Nashville on Sunday.  However, that would be it for the week on the power play.  After going 2-for-4 against the Predators on six shots in 4:52 of power play time, the Caps misfired on 19 shots over 20:22 of power play time on 13 power plays to close the week. 

Not that the Caps were getting shots from people they don’t want shooting the puck.  Alex Ovechkin had five of the 25 shots on goal, as did John Carlson.  Neither could rustle the twine in the back of the net, though.  Troy Brouwer had one goal on five shots.  Add in Nicklas Backstrom, who went 0-for-4, and the Caps biggest guns on the top unit were 1-for-19. It was just a bad week.

Penalty Killing: 11-12 / 91.7 percent (season: 81.5 percent / rank: 19^th)

The penalty killers, on the other hand, had a pretty good week.  It started very well when the Caps didn’t have to skate shorthanded against Nashville last Sunday.  It was the third time this season that the Caps stayed out of the box, the second time in 12 games (they also escaped skating shorthanded on March 6^th against Boston). 

The Caps were not so fortunate in the other three games of Week 25, but they rose to the challenge in killing off 11 of 12 shorthanded situations.  It continued a stretch of good effort when asked to kill off penalties.  By week’s end the Caps were 34-for-38 (89.5 percent) over their last dozen games.

It was a shared effort.  The Caps held opponents to 18 shots on goal in 18:18 of shorthanded ice time, and Jaroslav Halak and Braden Holtby combined to stop 17 of those 18 shots.  Halak’s perfect 11-for-11 for the week lifted his save percentage with the Caps when shorthanded from .948 to .958.  That save percentage with the Caps is more than 80 points better than it was with St. Louis (.876).

Even Strength Goals Scored For/Against: 5-11 (season 5-on-5 GF/GA ratio: 0.85 / rank:T-25nd)

The Caps had an uncommonly poor week at even strength, even by their modest standards.  It is not likely a coincidence that the only game in which they won the even strength battle (3-2 against the Islanders to close the week) was the only game they won.  Otherwise the Caps were two goals up and nine down, a really bad recipe for success.  Granted, four of those goals against came in the 5-0 loss to Dallas, but that game also represents one of the Caps’ worst performances of the season.

Not only were the Caps were out-shot at even strength in all four games, they were barely half as efficient as their opponents in the shots they did manage to direct on goal.  Washington shot to 5.6 percent for the week (5-for-90) while opponents were shooting 9.7 percent (11-for-113) at even strength.  It left the Caps in a run-down neighborhood in the league’s 5-on-5 goals scored/goals against ratio.  Only Florida, Calgary, Edmonton, and Buffalo are worse, and the Islanders and Nashville are tied with Washington for 25^th place.

Faceoffs: 119-244 / 48.8 percent (season: 48.7 percent / rank: 23^rd)

Another week, another week under 50 percent in the circle.  It was not quite as bad as all that, though.  The Caps were above 50 percent in the offensive and defensive zones for the week, doing poorly only in the neutral zone (33-for-76/43.4 percent).  There was one especially poor overall game, and it was one that the Caps needed to win.  Washington won just 20 of 49 draws against New Jersey, only 4-for-14 in the defensive zone, in their 2-1 loss to the Devils.

Individually the Caps did rather well.  Of the five Caps taking at least 20 draws, four of them – Nicklas Backstrom (72.0 percent), Jay Beagle (53.8), Eric Fehr (53.3), and Mikhail Grabovski (60.0) – finished over 50 percent.  Only Marcus Johansson finished under 50 percent (44.4).

Goals Scored For/Against by Period:

The Caps lost the week and lost all three periods.  Scoring just one third period goal was troublesome, even if that goal – scored on a power play by Nicklas Backstrom against Nashville – tied the contest and led to the Caps securing a standings point.  They were consistent, though.  Washington allowed goals in nine of the 12 regulation periods played this week and were outscored in seven periods in regulation.

In the end…

As we said at the top, “Four games, three losses, two losses in the Gimmick, one win.”  Three points in four games.  The Caps were two goals in regulation away from two additional points, those being the games against Nashville (a 4-3 Gimmick loss) and a 2-1 loss to New Jersey in regulation.  If the Caps had secured those points, they would be a tie-breaker out of a wild card spot.  Then again, it is like an old English rhyme:

If wishes were horses then beggars would ride,

If turnips were swords I’d have one by my side.

If ‘ifs’ and ‘ands’ were pots and pans,

There would be no need for tinker’s hands!

Unfortunately, after not getting those two points in Week 25 by the thinnest of margins and there being only one week left in the regular season, the Caps are likely to have no need of scheduling playoff games, either.

Washington Capitals: A TWO-point Night -- Game 78: Capitals 4 - Islanders 3 (OT/Gimmick)

And a babe shall lead them…

OK, maybe not a babe, but the new kid on the ice.  The Washington Capitals rode goals in both the hockey portion of the contest and in the skills competition by Evgeny Kuznetsov, and tallies by Joel Ward and Nicklas Backstrom to a 4-3 trick shot competition win over the New York Islanders.

For more than 30 minutes it did not have the look of the night ending in the Caps’ favor.  In the first period the Islanders took advantage of some indifferent defense from the Caps’ forwards to draw first blood.  In the thirteenth minute Micahel Grabner backhanded the puck deep into the Caps’ end.  Casey Cizikas split Tyson Strachan and Julien Brouillette to get to the puck first.  Strachan followed Cizikas low, and Brouillette stayed in front but wandered too far to the weak side of the play.  It allowed Cizikas to throw the puck out in front where Cal Clutterbuck filled in behind the Caps’ forwards.  Clutterbuck wasted no time slamming the puck past goalie Braden Holtby to give the Isles the 1-0 lead.

Less than three minutes into the second period Kuznetsov got the Caps even on an odd-finishing play.  Kuznetsov walked the puck out from the right wing corner and spied Marcus Johansson heading to the far post on the weak side.  Kuznetsov threw the puck across to Johansson, who tried to one-time the puck into the net.  He misfired, though, the puck heading back across the crease onto Kuznetsov’s stick.  The rookie did not miss on his attempt, stuffing the puck behind goalie Evgeni Nabokov.

That lead lasted 100 seconds.  For the 29^th time this season the Caps allowed a goal less than two minutes after scoring one of their own.  John Persson would do the honors, scoring his first NHL goal when he took a pass from Travis Hamonic and backhanded the puck through Holtby’s five hole, the puck sneaking over the goal line just before the referee blew the play dead for a covered puck.

When Franz Nielsen converted a feed from Josh Bailey into a one-timer power play goal at 9:55 to make it 3-1, the Caps looked cooked.  Less than three minutes later, though, the Caps drew back within one on another odd play.  It started when Alex Ovechkin got to a loose puck before defenseman Calvin de Haan in the right wing circle and dropped it for Mikhail Grabovski.  As Ovechkin continued around the boards, he ran into de Haan, the defenseman falling into the boards awkwardly and unable to get his feet back under him.  As the play unfolded the puck returned to Ovechkin low in the left wing circle.  Ovechkin tried to wrist the puck at the net, but whiffed.  It did have the benefit of drawing Nabokov to the ice, affording Ovechkin another chance at what was an empty net.  His shot missed, though, hitting deHaan, who was on his knees at the other side of the net, in the chest.  The puck caromed to Nicklas Backstrom who did not miss the empty net, and the Caps had a life.

Just 2:16 later, Joel Ward made the comeback complete off a broken play.  Marcus Johansson started it by trying to float a pass to Jason Chimera heading to the net.  The puck hit defenseman Thomas Hickey and was directed on goal.  Nabokov made the save, but when Hickey tried to clear the puck to the boards, he put it right on Ward’s stick.  Ward accepted the gift and ripped the puck past Nabokov, tying the game at the 15:01 mark of the period.

That would be it for the scoring in regulation time and for the five-minute overtime.  In the skills phase, Kuznetsov opened the competition with a goal that would end up being the only one scored.  When Brock Nelson chunked his backhand attempt in the third round and watched it go through Holtby’s legs and skitter just wide, Holtby looked back, saw the puck safely out of danger, and did a fist-pump to put an exclamation point on a two-point night the Caps desperately needed.

Other stuff…

-- If you happened to catch the Islanders’ TV feed, you might have thought Alex Ovechkin was the only defender on the ice for the Clutterbuck goal and was solely responsible for it.  None of the forwards – including Ovechkin – distinguished themselves on the play, but Ovechkin did happen to be the closest forward to Clutterbuck when he took the shot, so there was that.

-- The win makes the Caps 2-3-3 in their last eight games, both of their wins coming in the Gimmick.  The Caps do not have a win in regulation time since winning in Anaheim back on March 18^th.

-- It might not be coincidence that those eight games correspond to an eight-game streak, extended against the Islanders, in which the Caps had Fenwick-for percentages in 5-on-5 close score situations below 50 percent.  Their 39.7 percent effort against the Islanders made it four times in those eight games that the Caps failed to reach 40 percent.

-- Mike Green skated less than eight minutes, going out after the first period after sustaining an upper body injury.  His absence meant big minutes for John Carlson, who skated 30:07 for the evening.  It was the fifth time this season Carlson topped 30 minutes in ice time.  It also meant a season high 24:15 for Tyson Strachan. 

-- At the other end, only Julien Brouillette among the surviving defensemen had less ice time (15:19) than Karl Alzner (20:36).

-- Nicklas Backstrom’s five shots on goal was topped only once this season, a six-shot effort against Detroit on November 15^th.

-- When the game started, would you have had Julien Brouillette leading the Caps in hits?  Nope, me neither.  But he did get credit for five to lead the team.

-- Among rookies having played in ten or more games, Evgeny Kuznetsov is tied for 12^th in goals per game (0.23/game).

-- Here is an odd, and not flattering, coincidence of numbers.  This season Tyson Strachan has logged 2:24 in total penalty killing ice time.  He has been on ice for four goals against.  He was on ice for 1:23 against the Islanders, and yes, for a goal against.

-- With seven minutes in penalties, Tom Wilson reached the 151-minute mark for the season.  He is just the sixth rookie since the 2004-2005 lockout to top 150 minutes in penalties, passing Derek Dorsett (150 in 2008-2009) on that list.  Next up is Derek Boogaard (158 minutes in 2005-2006).  The other three are Shane O’Brien (176 in 2006-2007), Jared Boll (226 in 2007-2008), and Zac Rinaldo (232 in 2011-2012).

-- With their 20th appearance in Bettman's Folly, the Caps tied a league record for appearances in a single season, tying Phoenix (14-6 in 2009-2010) and Minnesota (11-9 in 2011-2012).

In the end…

Maybe it postpones the inevitable, maybe it is the start of a miraculous run to the playoffs.  Either way, it was the sort of comeback one might not thought this team was capable of achieving given a five-game losing streak and their standing as a playoff contender, and that is to their credit.  If there is still fight in this team, though, it will be tested on Tuesday in St. Louis.  Even though the remaining road is short with four games left, there is a long way to go.

Washington Capitals: A NO-point Night -- Game 77: Devils 2 - Capitals 1

On Friday, January 24^th, the Washington Capitals visited the New Jersey Devils.  In that game the Devils scored goals in each of the first and second periods, then held on after the Caps halved the lead in the third period to escape with a 2-1 win.  It was the last in a seven-game losing streak for the Caps (0-5-2)

Last night the Caps visited the Devils once more in what would be a mirror image of that late January game, scoring first on Alex Ovechkin’s 49^th goal this season, but letting the lead and the game get away as the Devils scored single goals in the second and third periods to escape with a 2-1 win to preserve their flickering playoff hopes.

For the Caps, it probably spells the end of their playoff chase.  The loss -- their fifth in a row (0-3-2) -- leaves Washington four points plus a tie-breaker behind the Columbus Blue Jackets for the last wild card spot in the playoffs.  Making the task even more daunting is that in addition to the Blue Jackets, the Caps have these Devils and the Toronto Maple Leafs to climb over to reach the post season and only five games left in which to do it.

Ovechkin got it started when Mark Fayne failed to clear the puck for the Devils out of his own end.  Ovechkin picked off his attempted pass through the middle, but Patrik Elias knocked the puck off his stick.  Elias and Mikhail Grabovski dueled for the loose puck in open ice, Grabovski winning that match up. Grabovski returned the puck to Ovechkin in the low slot, and his snap shot beat goalie Cory Schneider to the blocker side to give the Caps a 1-0 lead at 10:12 of the first period.

And that would be it for the Caps’ offense.  Tuomo Ruutu got the Devils even mid-way through the second period when he tipped a drive by Eric Gelinas from the left point.  It was the product of a continuing problem for the Caps, an inability to control the puck in their own end and skate it or chip it out of danger. 

That would be how the teams would remain until the clock wound down to the five-minutes remaining mark of the third period.  At that point, another recurring theme reared its ugly head – letting teams advance with speed through the neutral zone.  Count with me, will you?  From the Devils’ goal line Peter Harrold sent a pass up to Ryan Carter just inside the Devils’ blue line.  Carter skated out from the wall near the players bench and turned up ice.  Just before getting to the red line, Carter passed the puck off to Marek Zidlicky.  From there, Zidlicky put on the brakes and returned the puck to Carter steaming down the middle at the Caps’ blue line.  Carter sped past Jay Beagle, and before Mike Green could sweep the puck off Carter’s stick, Carter ripped a wrist shot low over goalie Jaroslav Halak’s left pad.  180 feet, three passes, one goal.

Game…season.

Other stuff…

-- New Jersey won this game despite losing Patrick Elias in the first period, Adam Henrique in the second, and Jacob Josefson in the third period to injuries.  The Devils finished the game with eight healthy forwards.  As it was, Travis Zajac skated almost 24 minutes, Jaromir Jagr skated more than 25 minutes.  For Jagr, the 25:28 was his highest ice time total in a regular season game since skating 26:18 for the New York Rangers in a 2-0 loss to Ottawa on October 6, 2007.

-- Alex Ovechkin’s goal was his first even strength point since February 27^th against Florida.  By our count, that was 251:16 in even strength ice time between points.

-- The Caps had their chance, chances actually, early.  They had 52 seconds of a 5-on-3 power play early in the first period and the opportunity to put the Devils in a hole.  They did not get a shot on goal.

-- Mikhail Grabovski recorded his first point for the Caps since January 14^th, so there was that.

-- Marcus Johansson is all of a sudden a gattling gun…well, by his standards.  This was the third game in four that he recorded at least three shots on goal (he had three).  That makes 11 shots in four games, more than ten percent of his season total (102).

-- Dustin Penner… 6:12 in ice time.  Evgeny Kuznetsov… 7:01 in ice time.  Discuss.

-- Nicklas Backstrom was the only Cap to finish the night on the right side of 50 percent in the circle (9-for-14).

-- Mike Green… 17:44 in ice time.  Lowest total of the season in a game in which he was not apparently injured.  His lowest since skating 14:14 on February 18, 2012, a game in which he was returning from an injury.

-- Jaroslav Halak… the search for the first win in the new mask continues (0-2-3, 2.75, .912).

In the end…

The Capitals could find themselves eliminated from the playoffs as soon as Tuesday, unless they get help…from teams like the New York Islanders (who both the Caps and Columbus play this weekend).  That is what it has come down to.  Of course, the Caps have not done a very good job of helping themselves this season, and that is why it has come down to this.  Last night was merely the latest chapter in a volume of this franchise’s history that no one is going to want to read in the future.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 77: Capitals at Devils, April 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals head up I-95 on Friday to visit Newark, NJ, and the New Jersey Devils in what is a “must win game” for both teams.  The winner of this game can keep within sight of the Columbus Blue Jackets in the race for a wild card spot in the playoffs.  The loser?  With five games to play after this one and four points out of the wild card (Washington) or five (New Jersey) in the event of a regulation loss and not holding a favorable tie-breaker position, the loser can schedule its exit meetings with players and start scheduling other events for their arena for the rest of April.

The Devils come into this game as a team without a direction.  The are 8-6-3 in their last 17 games since the Olympic break.  They have not won more than two games in a row in that span and have not won consecutive games since March 8th and 11th.  They do have a three-game losing streak in there and a two-game streak of losing in extra time.

Scoring has not been a problem for the Devils over that span.  They are averaging 3.00 goals per game over those 17 games, although they have struggled a bit with consistency.  Four times in that span the Devils scored five or more goals (take note, three of them at home), while on the other hand they have been held to two or fewer goals eight times and been shut out twice.

The Devils’ power play has been deceptive in the 17 games since the Olympics.  On the one hand, they are 13-for-53 (24.5 percent).  On the other, they were 6-for-11 in the first two games coming out of the break (54.5 percent) and are 7-for-42 since (16.7 percent).  The penalty kill is similarly bifurcated, though not as severely.  Overall, the PK is 46-for-54 since the break (85.2 percent).  However, it was 7-for-7 in the first three games out of the break (100.0 percent) and 39-for-47 since (82.3 percent).

One player to pay particular attention to in assessing whether the Devils are hot or cold is Adam Henrique.  Over his first six games coming out of the Olympic break, Henrique recorded nine goals, more than a third of his season total (25).  The Devils were 4-2-0 in those games.  In 11 games since he has only two goals, and New Jersey is 4-4-3.

More consistent production has come from Patrik Elias.  Since the Olympic break the 18-year veteran is 6-12-18.  What might of some concern here is that he is without a point in each of his last two games – against Florida and Buffalo, no less – the first time he has gone consecutive games without a point since February 7^th/8^th.

The Devils have three defensemen with at least 25 points this season.  You might be familiar with Marek Zidlicky and Andy Greene as being two of them.  But Eric Gelinas?  The 22-year old second round draft pick from 2009 is 7-21-28 in only 57 games.  However, he is another Devil who came out of the chute fast after the Olympics (1-3-4 in his first three games), but who has cooled off considerably lately (0-1-1 in his last six games and 0-2-2 in his last ten contests.

The situation in goal for the Devils is, one might say, “fluid.”  Neither Martin Brodeur nor Cory Schneider have started more than two games in a row since the Olympic break.  Neither has been especially effective, although inconsistent might be the more accurate term.  Brodeur is 5-3-1 in nine appearances with a 2.60 goals-against average and a .905 save percentage.  Schneider is 3-3-2 in nine appearances, with a 2.87 GAA and a .876 save percentage.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Getting started is an issue for the Devils.  Only five teams have few first period goals.  However, only the Boston Bruins have allowed fewer first period goals, making the Devils third in the league in taking leads into the first intermission (31 times).

2.  New Jersey could be on the brink of a record-setting season, and not in a good way.  Since the introduction of the shootout in 2005-2006, only three teams have gone an entire season without winning in the skills competition.  Carolina went 0-5 in 2005-2006, and Calgary (0-3) and Toronto (0-5) went winless last season.  The Devils are 0-11 in the freestyle phase this season.  They have only three goals this season, and one of those players – Reid Boucher – is not with the club.  Jacob Josefson and Jaromir Jagr are the others.  In addition to the league’s worst shooting percentage (7.7), they have the second worst save percentage in this phase (.553). 

3.  The Devils have scored the second fewest 5-on-5 goals in the league (120), surpassing only woeful Buffalo (90). 

4.  New Jersey might be the least physical team in the league at home, or have the strictest official scorers.  Only Minnesota has been credited with fewer hits on home ice (583) than the Devils (603), and no team has been credited with fewer blocked shots than the Devils (296).  Los Angeles has the second fewest with 346.

5.  The Devils are, however a superior possession team (note: if you have the puck, you don’t have to hit or block shots).  New Jersey ranks fifth in the league in Fenwick-for percentage in 5-on-5 close score situations (53.8) and fourth in Corsi-for percentage (54.6).

1.  Since the Olympic break the Caps are 7-6-4, but carry a four-game losing streak into this game (0-2-2) and losses in five of their last six contests (1-2-3), all of the extra time losses coming in the freestyle competition.

2.  The power play hums along.  Washington is 18-for-57 since the Olympic break (31.6 percent).  The Caps have seven multiple power play goal games in that span in which they are 4-1-2. 

3.  The penalty kill is 43-for-53 over that same span of games (81.1 percent), although it is 27-for-30 (90.0 percent) over its last ten games.

4.  That leaves even strength.  Only four teams have fewer 5-on-5 goals this season than the Caps (126): Edmonton, Montreal, New Jersey, and Buffalo.  Only nine have allowed more 5-on-5 goals than Washington (149).  It is not a recipe for sustained success. 

5.  The Caps are standing on seven straight games with Corsi-for and Fenwick-for percentages under 50 percent in close score situations.  It should not be surprising that the Caps have recorded only 42.3 percent of the shots on goal in those situations over the seven games and have been outscored, 11-4.

The Peerless' Players to Ponder

New Jersey: Jaromir Jagr

Jaromir Jagr is not, as the poet Dylan Thomas might have put it, "going gently into that good night."  If he gets a point tonight, he will be the first player in NHL history to record a 65-point season having reached his 42nd birthday.  Not Gordie Howe, not Teemu Selanne (they did it at age 41).  And he still has some oomph left in him.  He had a four-point game against Florida on the last day of March.  In 73 career games against Washington he is 30-60-90.

Washington: Jaroslav Halak

With six games left and more or less having to win out to make the post season, goaltending is going to be key.  And this presents a problem.  Not one of technique, or attitude, or focus.  No, the problem might be one of fashion choices.  Jaroslav Halak is 0-1-3, 2.94, .905 since donning his new mask.  Go back to the white one.

Keys:

1.  Eyes front.  Scoreboard watching does nothing now.  The Caps can only tend to their business.  Win here, win out, and see what happens.

2.  See Number 1.

3.  Hey, haven’t you been listening?  See Number 1!

In the end…

“Coach… I’m hurt.  I ain’t dead.”

In the movie, “Remember the Titans,” that is what injured All-American linebacker Gerry Bertier said to Coach Bill Yoast when he was in a hospital bed.  This is, of course, not nearly as serious as a young man paralyzed in a car accident, but the Capitals, with respect to their playoff hopes “are hurt….they ain’t dead.”  And until they are, there is something to play for.

Capitals 3 – Devils 2