Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 24

In Week 24 the Washington Capitals found themselves at the top of that roller coaster on which they have been riding over the last seven weeks.  A heavy workload (four games) and a good record (3-1-0) left the Caps on the brink of making reservations for the playoffs. On the brink does not mean circling the dates on the calendar in pen, though, not just yet anyway.

Record: 3-1-0

This was the Capitals’ fourth three-or-more win week in their last seven weeks.  The difficulty with that is that the club keeps alternating such weeks with those in which they have one or fewer wins.  This was a satisfying week in that the Caps started the week by salvaging a disappointing home stand with a gritty shutout win over the Boston Bruins, a team that had been closing on the Caps for the first wild card spot in the playoffs, then following up that win with a pair of road wins.  The trick shot win in Buffalo was scarier than it probably should have been, but then again, the Caps have not won a game in regulation in Buffalo since February 2011 and were 2-2-1 in Buffalo (both wins in extra time) since that win.  It has not been the easiest place in which to earn a win.  The Caps then won their first game ever at Xcel Center in Minnesota before dropping a 3-0 decision to Winnipeg to close the week.  That loss was disappointing for its intensity level, but in the larger picture, the week went well.

Offense:  2.00/game (season: 2.85/game; rank: 7th)

It was a light week at the offensive end of the ice, even accounting for the fact that the fourth game of the week ended in a shutout against the Caps.  It was one of those “on the one hand, on the other” sorts of weeks. 

On the one hand, the Caps opened the week facing a goalie – Boston’s Tuukka Rask – who was 6-1-1, 1.59, .950, with one shutout in his previous eight appearances.  On the other, the Caps had been Rask’s personal tormentors over his career, Rask struggling with a 1-4-1, 3.13, .883 career record against the Caps.  The Caps got a goal in each of the first two periods and groundout a 2-0 win over Rask.

On the one hand, the Caps faced a Sabres team that had been leaking goals all season and had traded both of their goaltenders away.  On the other, as we noted, the Caps have not had much success recently in Buffalo. They fell behind twice by a goal, took a lead, but could not add to it, relying on the trick shot phase for a win.

On the one hand…well, there is no such thing in the game against Minnesota.  Wild Goalie Devan Dubnyk had allowed as many as three goals in a game just once in his previous 14 appearances.  The Caps scored two goals less than a minute apart in the second period against Dubnyk, added one in the third period, and pinned on Dubnyk just his sixth loss in regulation in 28 decisions with the Wild.

In the last game of the week the Caps came out fairly well, but slowly had the air leak out of their balloon, several shots hitting iron further frustrating the club before they finished against Winnipeg shut out.  It was the fourth time the Caps were shut out this season.

As it was, eight goals was a light week for the Caps, made lighter by the fact that half of the goals came from Alex Ovechkin (two) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (two).  Only one other goal came from a forward (Curtis Glencross).

Defense: 2.00/game (season: 2.41/game; rank: 6th)

The Caps’ defense was probably good enough to win all four games in Week 24.  The shots allowed was an average week of sorts (29.8 allowed per game), but it was possession numbers that were noteworthy.  Washington won the possession battle in each game and overall.  Their 5-on-5 Corsi-for percentages were north of 50 percent in each game and for the week was 56.6.  Those trends were maintained in close score situations with the Caps winning each game and finishing the week with a Corsi-for percentage of 55.3.

That is where the fickleness of hockey makes its appearance.  Consider two goals, both in the game against Buffalo.  One occurred when an innocent enough backhand shot by Cody Hodgson was stopped by goalie Braden Holtby, but the puck popped straight up into the air.  When it came down it did so on Holtby’s back, then trickled over the goal line.  The second goal (Buffalo’s third, and the game-tying goal) came on a redirect by Johan Larsson of a shot from the point.  Redirects involve some measure of skill (and, in this case, some measure of poor defensive positioning to allow Larsson position to execute the play), but they involve some measure of luck given the respective shapes of the puck and a hockey stick.  If a floating puck lands at Holtby’s feet instead of on his back; if a redirect goes just wide of instead of just inside the post, the scoring defense numbers look more like the possession numbers.

It was a difficult week for John Carlson.  He was on ice for four of the seven non-empty net goals scored against the Caps, although he skated in iffy circumstances.  For example, it was his partner, Nate Schmidt, who was victimized by Larsson’s game-tying goal in the Buffalo game.  On the other hand, he could not fight his way around Larsson on Tyler Ennis’ power play goal on a give-and-go that gave the Sabres their first goal in that game. 

Joel Ward also found himself on ice for four goals against (including the empty netter scored by Winnipeg).  As it was, every Capital skater dressing in Week 24 found themselves finishing the week with at least one goal against having been scored while they were on the ice except Chris Conner, who managed to avoid that problem in the two games he played.

Goaltending: 1.72 / .941 / 1 shutout (season: 2.34 / .918 / 8 shutouts)

Another week, another Braden Holtby production.  Holtby took all the minutes for the Caps in Week 24 and played very well overall as the top line numbers above suggest.  By period he was fine as well, posting save percentages by period all in excess of .920 (.921/.949/.947/1.000).  He finished the week in the league’s top ten in wins (35/3rd), goals against average (2.18/7^th), save percentage (.924/8^th), and shutouts (8/3^rd).  He is 11^th among goalies appearing in at least 20 games in even strength save percentage (.930).  The one area in which Holtby had issues this season – shootout save percentage – was one in which he was perfect for the week.  He came into the week with a .667 save percentage in the trick shot phase (the league average is .700), but he turned away all three attempts to seal the Caps’ 4-3 Gimmick win over Buffalo.

Power Play: 3-for-10 / 30.0 percent (season: 24.9 percent; rank: 2nd)

The Capitals certainly have dialed up their power play in March.  Coming into Week 24 they were 6-for-14 (42.9 percent) in six games.  They actually fell back a bit in Week 24, going 3-for-10 (30 percent).  What made the week a bit stranger was that Washington converted each of its first three power play opportunities of the week before going 0-for-7 in their last two games.  The odd thing about the week, and the three goals, is that none of the goals – none of the points, in fact – were recorded by the league’s leading power play goal scorer, Alex Ovechkin.  Nicklas Backstrom, who finished the week tied with Ovechkin for second in power play points in the league, managed only one assist among the three goals scored. 

As it was, there were three different power play goal scorers for the Caps – John Carlson, Curtis Glencross, and Evgeny Kuznetsov.  It was Matt Niskanen who had the only multiple assist week on the power play (two).

As one might expect from the results, the efficiency of the power play broke into two pieces for the week.  In the first two games the Caps were 3-for-3, scoring three goals on seven shots in just 3:48 of power play ice time.  In the last two games the power play was 0-for-7, failing on all seven shot attempts in 13:15 of man advantage ice time while allowing a shorthanded goal in a 6-on-4 situation late in the 3-0 loss to Winnipeg.

Penalty Killing: 11-for-13 / 84.6 percent (season: 81.2 percent; rank: 17th)

Week 24 was a good, if not great week for the Capitals. The odd part of it was that the power play goals were scored by Buffalo (30^th in the league in power play efficiency/29^th at home) and Minnesota (27^th overall/14^th at home).  Not that Boston (19^th overall/25^th on the road) or Winnipeg (14^th overall/17^th at home) are especially prolific on the man advantage, but it was a bit of an odd week on the PK. 

It was not a bad week, efficiency-wise, but it might have been better.  The Caps gave up two goals on 24 shots (score one for goaltending on the penalty kill, a .917 save percentage) in 22:34 of penalty killing ice time.  Fourteen of those 24 shots (seven apiece) were recorded by the low-ranked Sabres and Wild in just over nine minutes of ice time.  You never know who it is you are going to struggle against in this game.

Even Strength Goals for/Goals Against: 5-5 / even (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.06; rank: 14th)

It would have been a pretty good week but for that Winnipeg game.  The Caps were outscored, 2-0, at evens against the Jets to leave them even for the week.  It was a deceptively poor sort of result in Week 24 for the Caps, who out-shot their opponents at even strength by a 110-93 margin and out-attempted them by a whopping 227-173 at even strength (5-on-5, 4-on-4).

The problem seemed to be more on the offensive end, where the Caps shot to just a 4.5 percent efficiency rate at evens for the week.  And there was the goal scoring.  Alex Ovechkin had a pair of even strength goals (both against Minnesota), and Evgeny Kuznetsov had one.  That did it for the forwards.  Mike Green and Nate Schmidt added one apiece from the blue line.  Secondary scoring was more a rumor than a fact at evens in Week 24.

Faceoffs: 109-224 / 48.7 percent (season: 51.5% / rank: 10th)

This was not a particularly good week for the Caps in the faceoff circle.  They were one win over .500 in the offensive end (43-for-85), and they lost both the defensive zone (36-for-73) and the neutral zone (30-for-66) for the week.  Further, it was the guys taking the heavy workload who had off weeks for the most part.  Among Caps taking at least ten draws, Nicklas Backstrom finished the week over 50 percent (51.5) on the strength of winning in the ends (56.7 percent in the offensive zone, 64.7 percent in the defensive zone).  Otherwise, Troy Brouwer (43.3 percent), Eric Fehr (44.2 percent), Evgeny Kuznetsov (44.9 percent), and Brooks Laich (47.4 percent) struggled.

Goals by Period:

While the week finished even overall for the Caps – eight goals scored, eight allowed – the periods were a bit of a different story.  The Caps lost the first (2-3) and third (2-3) periods, but won the second periods (4-2).  It was not as if the Caps were giving up an inordinate number of shots in the first or third periods.  Not counting empty net shots, the Caps allowed 38, 39, and 38 shots in the first, second, and third periods, respectively.

As it is, though, the Caps are the most consistent team in the league in one respect, unchanged from when the week began.  Washington is the only team in the league with a goal differential of plus-10 or better in each period in the 2014-2015 season to date (plus-10, plus-13, plus-11, in the first, second, and third period, respectively).

In the end…

Sure, a perfect week would have been nice.  As it was, the Caps ended their homestand on an up-note, then they went off and won two of three on the road.  In a sense, the road loss was unexpected since it was Braden Holtby taking the loss in Winnipeg, a city in which he had never lost as a Capital (4-0-0, 1.22, .962, with two shutouts against the Jets).

The Caps started the week tied with Boston in standings points and holding the second wild card spot, six points ahead of ninth-place Florida.  At week’s end the Caps held the first wild card spot, four points ahead of the Bruins.  They were just two points behind Pittsburgh for third place in the Metropolitan Division and four points behind the New York Islanders.  In that sense, Week 24 was a good week, further solidifying the Caps’ playoff position.

The season has now come down to less than a month and fewer than ten games for the Caps.  If one was inclined to play that “if they go…” game, then if the Caps go .500 in standings points over their last nine games they will finish with 97 standings points.  In that instance, Ottawa would have to earn 14 points over their last 11 games to catch the Caps, 15 points to pass them, assuming the Senators, with 31 wins in regulation and overtime, cannot catch the Caps in that category (Washington has 35 such wins).  And even with that, the Bruins would need 13 points in their last ten games to catch the Caps to earn the other wild card spot.  We are now at the points where it would take a most unlikely coincidence of events to keep Washington out of the post season.

But not impossible.  There is still work to do.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Matt Niskanen (0-3-3, minus-1, 24:09 average ice time, seven blocked shots)
• Second Star: Braden Holtby (3-1-0, 1.72,  .941, 1 shutout)
• Third Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-0-2, even, 1 GWG, 21 shots, 52 shot attempts, nine hits)

Programming Note...

We will be off the air for the next few days.  Not that Caps fans have any shortage of places to find news, notes, and highlights.

We will be back on Saturday.

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 71: Capitals 4 - Sabres 3 (OT/Gimmick)

The Washington Capitals opened their three-game road trip with a visit to Buffalo on Monday night to face the Sabres.  It was the Caps coming out on top in a surprisingly difficult contest, 4-3, that was settled in a trick shot competition,

The teams split four goals over the first two periods.  Buffalo opened the scoring on a power play early in the first period.  With Alex Ovechkin serving a double minor for roughing (Buffalo’s Mike Weber got two minutes for roughing), Tyler Ennis and Rasmus Ristolainen worked a fine give-and-go in the middle of the ice, Ennis finishing the play for his 18^th goal of the season at 5:02.

The Caps evened things up on a power play of their own just over four minutes later.  A drive by Matt Niskanen was redirected by Joel Ward in the high slot, handcuffing Sabres’ goalie Anders Lindback.  Unable to control the loose puck, Lindback could not prevent Curtis Glencross from poking it over his left pad and in to make it 1-1 at the 9:23 mark.

It took Buffalo just 45 seconds to break the tie.  Cody Hodgson recorded his fifth goal of the season when his backhand shot was fought off by Braden Holtby, but the puck popped straight up.  When it came back down it hit Holtby in the back and tumbled across the goal line to make it 2-1 at 10:08.

That was all the scoring in the first period.  In the second, Mike Green tied the game for the Caps six minutes into the period when he jumped up on a loose puck deep in the right wing circle and pounded it over a fallen Lindback in the Sabres crease.

Evgeny Kuznetsov gave the Caps their first lead on a power play 5:55 into the third period.  He cut to the middle of the ice, trailing Curtis Glencross, then dialed up the snap shot he has used to great effect in the Gimmick.  He fired it low over Lindback’s right pad before the goalie could flinch, and it was 3-2.  He would return to a similar shot later, in the freestyle competition.

The Caps could not extend the lead, and it cost them late in the third period.  Johan Larsson beat Caps defenseman Nate Schmidt across the slot and had a free chance to redirect a Chad Ruhwedel drive out of mid-air down and past Holtby’s left pad to make it 3-3 at the 13:50 mark.

That would do it for the scoring in the hockey portion of the contest.  Evgeny Kuznetsov opened the trick shot competition with an almost hypnotic stroll into the zone before snapping the puck like a cobra strike past Kindback’s blocker, similar to his goal-scoring effort in the hockey portion of the evening.  That was enough.  Holtby stopped all three Sabre freestyle attempts, and the Caps escaped with a 4-3 win.

Other stuff…

-- Mike Green’s goal broke a 20-game goalless drought dating back to January 28^th when he had a goal and an assist in a 4-0 win over Pittsburgh.

-- Curtis Glencross’ goal was his fourth in six games (4-2-6).  And it was his driving the middle that opened a shooting lane for Kuznetsov’s power play goal early in the third period.

-- With three goals scored against the Caps in regulation and overtime, the Sabres have scored more goals against the Caps this season (6) in three games than Boston and Pittsburgh have scored in six games against the Caps, combined (5).

-- Alex Ovechkin finished the game with 22 shot attempts – nine shots on goal, 10 shots blocked, and three misses.  There are 59 skaters having dressed this season who do not have a total of 22 shot attempts. 

-- With his goal in the hockey portion of the contest, Evgeny Kuznetsov is 2-2-4 in his last four games.  He is now tied for second in the league in trick shot goals (6).

-- Are the Caps hot on the power play, or what?  Going 2-for-2 makes them 3-for-3 in their last two games and 9-for-17 in March (52.9 percent).

-- The Caps had 38 shots on goal, their lowest total against Buffalo this season.  They finished the season series having strafed Buffalo goalies for 127 shots in three games.  The Caps out-attempted the Sabres by a 238-144 margin (plus-94 differential) over the three games.

-- With two assists, Matt Niskanen recorded his fifth multi-point game of the season and his first since January 27^th in a 4-3 loss at Columbus.

-- Kuznetsov was the only Capital to win more than 50 percent of his draws (8-for-15).

-- You could say with some conviction that the only difference between last night and tonight for Braden Holtby was a measure of luck.  One goal off a pop-up that hits him in the back on the way down, another off a give-and-go that was a product of his defense allowing too much time and space for the Sabres to set up, and a third goal on a redirect out of mid-air.  It was not as if he allowed any softies.

In the end…

The Caps played at 33-1/3 while the Sabres played at 78 (it’s a vinyl thing, kids).  If the Sabres had more talent, this would have been a blow out, but good on them for their effort for 60 minutes.  The Caps?  Well, they didn’t have the same focus they had against the Bruins.  That it did not cost them an extra point can be called a good thing, we suppose.  Good teams have to fight through those kinds of games.  But we recall what Braden Holtby said after the 2-0 win over Boston, that his father told him it is okay to have a bad game, just don’t have two in a row.  That will be the object when the Caps head to Minnesota on Thursday.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 71: Capitals at Sabres, March 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take to the road on Monday following their 2-0 win over the Boston Bruins at Verizon Center on Sunday evening.  The three-game road trip starts in Buffalo, where the Caps will face the Sabres at First Niagara Center.  So let's go to our abbreviated prognosto...

This, the third meeting of the seasons between the clubs, will be the last until next season. The Caps and Sabres split their first two games of the season series, the Sabres taking a 2-1 decision on November 22nd, the Caps winning the second meeting by a 6-1 score nine days ago.  Not much has changed since the last time these two teams met, so check our prognosto and game summary (at Japers’ Rink) from the March 7th game for some particulars.

Since then, here are some random facts to ponder…

-- The Caps are 1-2-0 since beating the Sabres and have scored just five goals in those three games.  It is the second time in a space of ten games that the Caps have been held to five goals over a three-game span.  They scored five in three consecutive losses, February 22-27: to Philadelphia (3-2), to Pittsburgh (4-3, and to Carolina (3-0).

-- Buffalo has lost both games played since losing to the Caps nine days ago, to Toronto (4-3 in a Gimmick) and to the New York Rangers (2-0).  The Sabres have lost six in a row coming into this game (0-5-1).

-- Buffalo has not scored a power play goal on home ice in a month.  Their last power play goal at First Niagara Center was scored by Nikita Zadorov in a 2-1 loss to Philadelphia.  Since then, the Sabre’s power play is 0-for-10 on home ice, 1-for-23 overall (4.3 percent).

-- The Caps scored on their only power play against the Bruins on Sunday night, making it power play goals in six of their last seven games (7-for-15/46.7 percent).

-- Washingon’s penalty kill was perfect against the Bruins last night (4-for-4).  The Caps are 27-for-32 (84.4 percent) over their last nine games, three of the five goals coming in a disastrous penalty killing performance against the Dallas Stars last Friday.

-- Buffalo’s penalty kill might be characterized lately as “deuces are wild.”  The Sabres allowed two power play goals in three of their last six games and are 15-for-22 in that span (68.2 percent).

-- Buffalo is one of only four teams without a 20-goal scorer (Arizona, Carolina, and Edmonton are the others).

-- Washington has only one 20-goal scorer (Alex Ovechkin with 45), but they have five players with a chance to hit that mark: Nicklas Backstrom (18), Troy Brouwer (18), Eric Fehr (18), Marcus Johansson (17), and Joel Ward (16).

-- Washington ranks fifth in the league in scoring defense (2.40 goals per game).  Last season they ranked 21st (2.79 goals per game).  The Caps have not ranked this high in scoring defense since they finished the 2010-2011 season fourth in the league (2.33 goals per game).

-- Buffalo ranks 29th in scoring defense (3.32 goals per game).  The Sabres have not allowed fewer than 2.70 goals per game for a season since 2009-2010 (2.45 goals per game/4th in the league).

-- Buffalo is a bottom-third team when it comes to allowing goals in the first period (56/9th worst in the league), but it does not compare to the horror shot that is their second periods of games (81 goals/2nd worst in the league) and the third periods of games (87 goals/3rd worst).  No team other than the Sabres has allowed 80 or more goals in both the second and third periods of games played this season.

-- Washington is tied for the sixth-fewest goals allowed in the first periods of games this season (47, with Montreal).  The Caps are one of six teams to have allowed 60 or fewer goals in each of the three periods of games this season (Los Angeles, Chicago, St. Louis, Montreal, and the New York Rangers are the other five).

-- Tyler Ennis leads the Sabres with 17 goals this season.

-- Alex Ovechkin scored his 17th goal in Game 36 this season, a 4-3 overtime loss to the New York Islanders on December 29th.

In the end…

You are tempted to write a “W” in ink next to this game, but the Caps have had their moments against inferior opponents this season, including a 2-1 loss to this very Sabres team on Verizon Center ice back in November.  Upstate New York has not been hospitable to the Caps in recent years, either.  They do not have a win in regulation in Buffalo since February 20, 2011, a 2-1 victory.  Since then the Caps are 2-2-1 in Buffalo, but both wins have come in extra time.  This might not be as easy as the respective records of these clubs might suggest.

Capitals 4 – Sabres 2

A TWO-Point Night -- Game 70: Capitals 2 - Bruins 0

The Washington Capitals salvaged the last game of their five-game home stand in fine fashion, shutting out the Boston Bruins, 2-0, on Sunday night.  It was the second shutout in as many games against the Bruins this season for the Caps.

At the offensive end it was a record-setting night.  It was fitting in one respect, odd in another.  Mid-way through the first period, Brad Marchand took a roughing penalty when he retaliated against Tom Wilson for Wilson’s hit on Ryan Spooner in open ice.  With the Bruins down a man, the Caps worked the puck around to Alex Ovechkin for a one-timer.  It went wide on the short side, but Troy Brouwer recovered it behind the Boston net.  Brouwer reset the play, sending the puck around to Nicklas Backstrom, who fed John Carlson at the top of the offensive zone.  Carlson one-timed the puck through a maze of bodies and past goaie Tuukka Rask to give the Caps a 1-0 lead. 

The assist by Backstrom was his 419^th as a Capital, passing Michal Pivonka for the franchise record in assists.  The fitting part of it was Backstrom earning the assist on a power play; the odd part of it was that it was not Ovechkin finishing the play.

There would be no more scoring in the first period, but there would be some in the second, courtesy once more of a defenseman.  Nate Schmidt recorded his first goal of the season for the Caps when he capitalized on a fortuitous bounce.  Backstrom sent the puck around the end boards and along the right wing wall where Tom Wilson ran it down.  Wilson threw the puck at the net, but the shot was blocked by Zdeno Chara.  The puck caromed off Chara’s shin pad directly to Schmidt just inside the Bruins’ blue line.  Schmidt teed it up and let fly with a slap shot that deflected off the Bruins’ Gregory Campbell and past Rask to make it 2-0.

After that it was up to the Capitals to button things up in their own end and Braden Holtby to stand tall in goal.  Both he and the Caps did just that, and the Bruins were blanked by the Caps for the second time this season, 2-0.

Other stuff…

-- Nicklas Backstrom finished the game with two assists, giving him 420 for his career (tops in Caps history), 53 for the season (tops in the league), and his 16^th game with two or more assists (tops in the league).

-- Tom Wilson had an effective game from the right wing of the first line.  He had an assist, was plus-1, had two shots on goal (three attempts), six hits, and drew a penalty that resulted in a power play goal.

-- Holtby’s shutout was his eighth, breaking a tie for second place he shared with Montreal’s Carey Price.  He is one behind Pittsburgh’s Marc-Andre Fleury.

-- Holtby’s win was his 33^rd of the season, lifting him into a tie with Olaf Kolzig (twice – in 1997-1998 and in 2002-2003) for the fourth-most wins in a season for a Capitals goaltender.  Next on the ladder with the third-most wins in Caps history for a goaltender is Jim Carey’s 35 wins in 1995-1996.

-- More Holtby… The shutout reduced his season goals against average to 2.17.  If it holds up for the remainder of the season, it would be a franchise record for lowest GAA.  Olaf Kolzig holds the record with a 2.20 goals against average in 1997-1998.

-- No Capital taking more than one faceoff won more than 50 percent of the draws he took. Brooks Laich was the only one to reach 50 percent (6-for-12).

-- Heavy teams play heavy games.  Both teams were credited with more than 30 hits, the Caps winning that duel, 33-31.  Twelve Cap skaters and 13 Bruin skaters were credited with at least one hit.  What might have been the best “hit,” though, was not credited.  As Milan Lucic was trying to track down a loose puck beneath the Caps’ goal line, Braden Holtby beat him to it, and for good measure hip checked Lucic into the end boards as he was sending the puck around the wall.

-- The 38 shots on goal was quite a change from the first time the teams met in Game 2 of the season back in October.  In that one, the Caps managed only 21 shots but scored four goals.  Low shot or high shot totals, the Caps have been Boston goalie Tuukka Rask’s personal nightmare.  The loss left his career regular season record against the Caps at 1-5-3, 3.00, .893.

-- There was one power play chance for the Capitals in this one, making it three times in their last eight games in which they were held to a single power play opportunity.  It was the 11^th time this season that the Caps have been held to one or no power play chances, and their record in such games is 6-5-0.

-- Chris Conner had an interesting game, and perhaps not in the best of ways.  In his debut as a Washington Capital, he skated just 7:32 and took two minor penalties, but he did have an excellent scoring chance that required a superb glove save by Rask to keep from hitting the back of the net.

In the end…

It was not flashy, but that’s what playoff hockey looks like, and this looked like playoff hockey.  These two teams do not play against one another very often, but it seems there is no love lost between them nevertheless. 

Braden Holtby remarked after the game in an interview on national television that his father instilled in him the idea that it is alright to have a bad game, just don’t have two in a row.  Holtby struggled against Dallas in his last start, the first time he had been pulled in a game he started since Game 3 of the season.  He did not allow it to become two off nights in a row, as he was sharp throughout. 

At the other end, Nicklas Backstrom had quite a night…or is that a “quiet” night?  How often does a player set a franchise record and do it was quietly and efficiently as Backstrom did on this night?  Backstrom appears poised to break the 60-assist barrier for the fourth time in his eight year career.  If he does, he would be just the third player in the league to do so four times in that eight year span (Henrik Sedin and Joe Thornton are the others) and just the 16th player to do it four times in any eight year period in the history of the league (although Sidney Crosby could beat him to that 16^th to do it spot).

They were two fine performance from two players who do not get as much attention, perhaps, as they should.  But they are players who will be absolutely essential to any success the Caps have as the rest of the season unfolds.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 23

Week 23 was not kind to the Washington Capitals.  It extended a disconcerting trend, one of alternating good and bad weeks.  Since Week 18, the Caps have alternated winning and losing weeks, Week 23 being the second winless week in the last three.  It is not the sort of trend one would want to see as the season heads into it final weeks.

 

Record: 0-2-0

Week 23 was the second week in the last three that the Caps failed to secure a win.  They are 11-9-0 since setting off on this on-again/off-again alternating weeks of good and bad trip over the last six weeks.  The Caps have not beaten a playoff-eligible team since they took down the New York Islanders in a Gimmick on February 21^st.  They have not beaten a playoff-eligible in regulation or overtime since they beat Winnipeg, 5-1, on February 19^th.  You could say that the Caps haven’t played very many playoff-eligible teams since that win over the Islanders – three teams in nine games.  True, but the Caps are 0-3-0 in those games and 3-6-0 overall in those nine games.  Week 23 just added to the slump.

Offense:  1.50/game (season: 2.90/game; rank: 7th)

It was a poor week at the offensive end of the ice for the Caps, especially for the guys who have been here a while.  Evgeny Kuznetsov led the team in scoring for the short week, going 1-2-3 in the two games.  Curtis Glencross had one of the other two goals, while Andre Burakovsky added an assist. That’s two rookies and the new guy from Calgary doing their part.  After that, Alex Ovechkin had a goal but had his four-game goal scoring streak stopped against the Dallas Stars to close the week.  Joel Ward had a goal, but otherwise the third line was not heard from.  Troy Brouwer had an assists, and that was it from the second line.  It was not a good week for the guys on offense.

Defense: 3.50/game (season: 2.44/game; rank: 7th)

One of the things that has become common to playing playoff-eligible teams is the Caps being out-shot.  When the Rangers out-shot the Caps by a 31-29 margin on Wednesday, it was the fourth straight game that Washington was out-shot by a playoff-eligible team.  And, the two games in Week 23 in which the Caps were outshot overall, It made it four games in five overall in which the Caps were out-shot and six in seven in which they allowed 30 or more shots.  The only interruption in either of those streaks was the Caps out-shooting the woeful Buffalo Sabres, 45-17, on March 7^th.

Illness and injury threw the Caps’ defensive pairs into turmoil, forcing the team to mix up the first pair (with Brooks Orpik out) and the third pair (with Mike Green out) for the game against the Rangers to start the week.  Green returned for the game against the Stars, but there were still after-shocks.  As it was, John Carlson, who was paired with Nate Schmidt in place of Orpik at even strength and with Tim Gleason on the penalty kill, ended up being on ice for five of the seven goals scored against the Caps in Week 23.

Possession was an odd thing, not all that surprising in a week of light work where variations can be magnified in small populations of games.  The Caps had a 53.1 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 overall, a product of out-attempting the Rangers, 52-34, at 5-on-5 in the game to open the week.  In close score situations, that Corsi-for number was a lot different: 38.6 percent.  What accounts for the difference?  The Caps out-attempted the Rangers, 31-7, at 5-on-5 overall in the third period of their 3-1 loss, which does not show  up in the “close score” number.

Goaltending: 3.56 / .887 (season: 2.38 / .917 / 7 shutouts)

The news this week in this category boils down to a single number: 33:54.  That was the ice time logged by Braden Holtby against the Dallas Stars before he was relieved by Justin Peters, having allowed four goals on 22 shots in the Caps’ 4-1 loss.  It was the first game that Braden Holtby was pulled early after starting the game since he was relieved after giving up three goals on seven shots in 9:34 of work in a 6-5 loss to the San Jose Sharks on October 14th.  He had gone 55 consecutive starts without being relieved (he relieved Justin Peters for a period in a 6-2 loss to Toronto last November 29th).

Holtby has been slipping lately.  Since winning three in a row and allowing just four goals on 85 shots in mid-February, he is 3-6-0, 2.63, .913, with one shutout (two of the wins came against the imploding Maple Leafs and the ghastly Sabres).  If it is a slump, that is one thing.  Slumps have two phases – a downward one and then an upward one when one emerges from it.  If it is his workload showing, that might be a different matter.

Justin Peters got mop-up duty against the Stars, his first work in almost a month.  He stopped all nine shots he faced in almost 24 minutes of work, the third straight appearance in which he stopped at least 90 percent of the shots he faced (.915 save percentage overall) after having a string of five straight appearances in which he failed to meet that 90 percent standard.

Power Play: 1-for-6 / 16.7 percent (season: 24.6 percent; rank: 2nd)

The Caps came into the week on a power play tear, going 6-for-10 over their previous six games dating back to the third period of their 4-3 loss to Pittsburgh on February 25^th.  The Caps made it 7-for-11 when they scored on their first power play of Week 23 in the 3-1 loss to the Rangers.  That would do it for the week on the man advantage, though. 

The Caps wrapped up the week shooting blanks on their last five power plays.  Overall they finished with one goal on six power plays, converting that single goal on ten shots in 10:25 of power play ice time.  The efficiency for the week, and the week itself, might have been less disappointing if not for a single one of those shots.  On a 5-on-3 power play against the Rangers, with New York holding a 2-1 lead, Nicklas Backstrom took a nifty through-the-top-of-the-crease feed from Joel Ward and had an open short side at which to shoot.  His wrister was gloved down by Ranger goalie Cam Talbot, and the threat passed, the Caps’ best chance to make it a game.

Penalty Killing: 6-for-9 / 66.7 percent (season: 81.0 percent; rank: 16th)

It started well enough for the Caps killing penalties in Week 23.  They we perfect in three shorthanded situations against the Rangers.  It fell apart against the Dallas Stars.  The Stars scored on their first power play, scored on the front half of a double minor penalty to Joel Ward, then scored on what was their  fourth power play 14 minutes into the second period, taking a 4-1 lead and ending the competitive portion of the game.

Part of the problem against the Stars was luck (the first power play goal was a deflection off Curtis Glencross’ skate), poor positioning (Tyler Seguin could have written an opera with the time he had to set up to take a slap shot from the left wing circle), and fate (the Stars scored on a 2-on-1 rush after Eric Fehr shot wide on a good shorthanded scoring chance).

As it was, the Caps allowed three goals on 13 shots in 15:37 in shorthanded ice time.  It was not as much an inefficient week (shots per minute of shorthanded ice time) as ineffectiveness that might have been a product of unfamiliarity.  John Carlson and Tim Gleason were a pair victimized twice by Dallas extra-man goals.

Even Strength Goals for/Goals Against: 2-4 / minus-2 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.08; rank: 13th)

It was not the what, but the when.  Four even strength goals allowed is not an awful week, but allowing three of them to the Rangers in the first game of the week, while getting none of their own, sank the Caps in the first game in the week.  And, allowing just one was not enough in the second game of the week when the penalty kill was being shredded.

At the other end, Curtis Glencross and Evgeny Kuznetsov scored the only even-strength goals for the Caps in Week 23.  Kuznetsov’s was technically an even strength goal, although it was scored with the Caps’ net empty for a sixth attacker late in the 4-2 loss to Dallas.  It was hardly a surprising result, give that the Caps were out-shot by a 35-19 margin in the first and second periods of the two games for the week (only one even strength shot from Alex Ovechkin in the first two periods of the two games).  That kind of anemic production at evens did as much as anything to ruin the week for Washington.

Faceoffs:73-130 / 56.2 percent (season: 51.6% / rank: 9th)

Well, there was one good thing about the week, and it was largely wasted.  The Caps dominated faceoffs in all three zones.  It was largely due to Eric Fehr, who had a monster week in the circle, if a meek one (no points) in the two games this week.  Fehr was 22-for-29 overall (75.9 percent) and was well over 50 percent in each of the three zones – 70.0 percent in the offensive zone, 66.7 percent in the defensive zone, and 90.0 percent in the neutral zone.

Nicklas Backstrom had what for him was an off week.  He managed only 16 wins in 37 faceoffs, coming out on the losing end in each of the three zones (44.4/42.9/42.9 in the offensive, defensive, and neutral zones, respectively).

Goals by Period:

The Caps took it in the teeth in the first and second periods of games for the week.  They took a 2-1 deficit to the locker room at the first intermission of both games.  The Caps being a team that entered the week with a 2-9-4 record when trailing after one period, that was not a good sign in either game.

The Caps could not make up for it in the third period, recording only a late extra-attacker goal in the 4-2 loss to Dallas.  It was another example of a thin week on offense for the Caps.

In the end…

Do you remember those B-movie adventure flicks when some poor unsuspecting soul would wander into a pool of quicksand and be slowly, inexorably sucked into its pit?

The Caps have that look at the moment (minus the shrieking).  They are not awful, but they are slowly slipping in the standings, making things a lot more suspenseful than fans would like. 

The schedule to close the season does the Caps no favors, either.  Six of the Caps’ last 13 games are at home, and the schedule is sprinkled with teams that are currently playoff eligible or closing on the Caps for that position: Boston twice, the New York Rangers twice, Minnesota, Winnipeg, Nashville, Montreal, Detroit, and Ottawa.  If the Caps continue as there are, there is still time for them to sink under the quicksand.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (1-2-3, even, nine shots on goal, 11 shot attempts, five hits)
• Second Star: Alex Ovechkin (1-1-2, seven shots on goal, 21 shot attempts, ten hits)
• Third Star: Justin Peters (9-for-9/1.000 save percentage in 23:56)

The stars were a bit dimmer this week…

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 70: Bruins at Capitals, March 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals end their season-longest five-game home stand on Sunday when they host the Boston Bruins at Verizon Center.  It will be a clash of two teams that have passed one another on their respective journeys to the post season.  The Caps are 12-12-2 since January 14^th when they were 24-11-8 and only three points out of the Eastern Conference lead.  They are now 36-23-10 and reside in eighth place in the East, holding the second wild card spot, seven points ahead of the ninth-place Ottawa Senators.

Meanwhile, the Bruins passed the Caps for the first wild card spot in the East with a 2-0 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday afternoon.  It extended their consecutive games streak earning points to eight (7-0-1).   The Bruins have played well, but they have benefited from a bit of puck luck, too. Three of those seven wins in the eight-game streak came in extra time, and a fourth – Saturday’s win over Pittsburgh – was a one-goal game until Zdeno Chara scored into an empty net with 37.7 seconds left in regulation.  Boston outscored their opponents by a 25-14 margin over those eight games.  Their special teams performed adequately, the power play going 6-for-30 (20.0 percent) and the penalty kill going 20-for-25 (80.0 percent).

Boston has had enviable balance in their scoring over their 7-0-1 streak.  Brad Marchand leads the club with five goals in that span, and six other players have three apiece: Dan Paille, Loui Eriksson, Ryan Spooner, David Pastrnak, Milan Lucic, and Zdeno Chara.  Spooner and Pastrnak each have eight points to lead the Bruins in total scoring in this recent run.

Spooner started the season with the Bruins but was assigned to Providence in the AHL after appearing in five games without recording a point.  He was recalled in late February, and the second tour with the Bruins appears to have gone much better.  In ten games since his recall he has points in eight contests, going 3-6-9, plus-3.  Spooner has one career game against the Caps, going without a point in the Caps’ 4-0 win in Boston on October 11^th.

Pastrnak, the 25^th overall pick of the 2014 entry draft, has spent this season shuttling between the Providence Bruins in the AHL and the parent club.  His movements have taken place on almost a monthly basis – assigned to Providence in October, recalled in November; reassigned to Providence in December, recalled in January.  The recall in January might have been the charm.  In his second and third games following that recall he scored a pair of goals in each and recorded the game-winning goal in each..  More recently he has points in each of his last four games, seven of his last eight contests, and 12 of his last 16 outings, going 5-8-13 in that span.  He has not yet faced the Caps.

Since the 2012-2013 season, among goalies appearing in at least 50 games overall, no goaltender has a better save percentage than Boston’s Tuukka Rask (.927).  His 2.13 goals against average over that span trails only New Jersey's Cory Schneider (2.11) and St. Louis’ Brian Elliott (2.12).  His 14 shutouts trail only Washington’s Braden Holtby (15), Pittsburgh’s Marc-Andre Fleury (15), and Montreal’s Carey Price (16).  Rask is just slightly off those numbers so far this season with a 2.26 goals against average (12^th in the league) and a .924 save percentage (10^th), with three shutouts (tied for 15^th).  Over the Bruins’ recent 7-0-1 run, Rask has found his rhythm.  He is 5-0-1, 1.45, .955 with one shutout.  He is 1-4-3, 3.13, .883, with one shutout in eight career appearances against Washington. 

Rask’s shutout came in Saturday’s game against Pittsburgh, which means Niklas Svedberg might get the call in net for Boston.  His overall record is not extraordinary (7-5-2, 2.43, .918), but he does have three wins and a no-decision in his last four appearances.  He has never faced the Caps.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Boston has an ability to jump on teams early.  They are tied for sixth in goals scored in the first periods of games (61) and have a plus-14 goal differential in the first period.  There is a bit of an odd quality to their first period scoring, however.  Only 27 times in 68 games have the Bruins taken a lead into the first intermission, and they rank 19^th in winning percentage (.741/20-5-2).

2.  No team has enjoyed fewer power plays on the road than the Bruins (84).  Only Minnesota (10), Montreal (10), and Buffalo (9) have scored fewer power play goals on the road than Boston (11).

3.  With 112 times being shorthanded on the road, the Bruins are minus-28 in special teams opportunity differential.  In three road games on this 7-0-1 run, they are plus-1 in special teams opportunity differential.

4.  Three seems to be the magic number for the Bruins.  In games in which they score three or more goals (not including trick shots), they are 27-4-4.

5.  The Bruins might have a 7-0-1 record in their last eight games, but it has been the product of mixed possession number results.  Boston has a Corsi-for percentage at overall 5-on-5 of just 48.5 over those eight games.  However, in close score situations the Bruins Corsi-for percentage is 52.5 over those eight games.

1.  What happened to the home stand?  The Caps are 1-3-0, and while the goals, for and against, are even (10-10), six of those goals scored came against the hapless Buffalo Sabres.  Only one of the other four goals scored in the three losses was scored after the first period, and that was a window dressing goal scored with less than two minutes left in the Caps’ 4-2 loss to Dallas on Friday.

2.  It is nice that the new guy is contributing, but having Curtis Glencross leading the team in goals (3) and points (5) over a four-game stretch at home might not have been in the game plan.  He and Alex Ovechkin account for five of the Caps’ 10 goals on the home stand.  Five other players have one apiece: Brooks Laich, Joel Ward, Jay Beagle, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Marcus Johansson.

3.  Washington has been killing too many penalties at home.  They rank in a tie for fourth in the league in most shorthanded situations on home ice (116).

4.  The Caps’ first period scoring is quite the opposite of that of the Bruins.  Washington is tied for the sixth-fewest number of first period goals this season (47).

5.  Only the New York Islanders in the Eastern Conference have generated more total shot attempts this season (4489) than the Caps (4038).  As good as that might sound, the Caps are ranked just eighth in the East in shot attempt differential (plus-143).  That is because the Caps have allowed the seventh-most number of shot attempts against (3895).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Zdeno Chara

On Wednesday, Zdeno Chara will turn 38 years old.  Only seven of 291 defensemen having dressed this season are older.  While Chara is hardly doddering on the eve of his next birthday, there are signs that age is creeping into his game.  His 0.38 points per game this season is his lowest as a Bruin and his lowest since the 2001-2002 season in 75 games with the Ottawa Senators.  While plus-minus is not an especially persuasive indicator of performance, his plus-2 for the season would be his lowest for a season since 2006-2007.  Drilling down a bit, his Corsi-for (relative) at 5-on-5 ranks 30^th in the league among defensemen (minimum: 500 minutes).  While that is an improvement on his 53^rd-place ranking last season, it is a drop-off from his fourth-place ranking in the Bruins’ Stanley Cup season of 2010-2011.  He still leads the team’s defensemen in shorthanded ice time (3:17), and he is still logging significant minutes on the power play (2:06, third among Bruins defensemen).  Chara has three goals in his last seven games; in 58 career games against the Caps he is 7-19-26, plus-10.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

With two assists against the Buffalo Sabres last Saturday, Nicklas Backstrom tied Michal Pivonka for the franchise record in assists (418).  In two games since, he has not added to that total, but that seems understandable since he was fighting the flu last week.  Of more concern might be that he has gone ten games without a goal and has only two in his last 18 games.  The Caps are 24-11-7 this season when Backstrom records a point, 9-1-4 when he scores a goal.  He is in sight of his second-highest season goal total (22 in 2008-2009), and he might have to challenge or surpass it if the Caps are to hold on to a wild-card spot to qualify for the post season.  In 23 career games against the Bruins, Backstrom is 4-19-23, plus-6.

In the end…

On February 21^st the Caps defeated the New York Islanders, 3-2, in a Gimmick.  The win left the Caps just five points out of the top spot in the Eastern Conference and 12 points ahead of the ninth-place Florida Panthers.  They will take the ice on Sunday 11 points out of the conference lead and just six points ahead of Florida for the last playoff spot, the Panthers holding a game in hand.  Ottawa is seven points back with the Senators holding two games in hand.  It is not time for fans to panic over the Caps chances to reach the playoffs, but that collar is getting a bit tight.

What makes things more serious for the Caps is that as they embark on their last 13 games they get the Bruins twice, the New York Rangers twice, Minnesota, Winnipeg, Nashville, Montreal, Detroit.  That is nine games against teams that would qualify for the playoffs today.  Add in a game against the Senators on April 4^th, and the home stretch looks more like a mine field.  The Caps are going to get a dose of playoff hockey over these last four weeks, and it starts against the Bruins on Sunday.

Capitals 3 – Bruins 2

A NO-Point Night -- Game 69: Stars 4 - Capitals 2

It was not the worst game the Washington Capitals played this season, but they could see from here.  What they could not see very much of was the Dallas Stars buzzing in, around, and through the Capitals’ defensive zone, scoring twice in each of the first two periods on their way to a 4-2 win at Verizon Center.

It did not take Dallas long to start the scoring.  With the Stars on a power play, Ales Hemsky led an assault on the Caps’ end.  When the defense backed off, he left the puck for Shawn Horcoff filling in down the middle.  Horcoff fired, his shot ticking off Curtis Glencross’ skate and sailed over goalie Braden Holtby’s blocker into the back of the net 3:25 into the game.

Glencross evened things up in the 12^th minute of the first period.  From in front of the Dallas bench, Troy Brouwer fed Evgeny Kuznetsov closing on the Dallas blue line.  Kuznetsov carried the puck diagonally across the zone and left if for Glencross at the top of the left wing circle.  Glencross cut back across the middle and backhanded the puck on net.  Goalie Kari Lehtonen made the first stop but left the puck lying next to his right pad.  Glencross followed his own shot and stuffed it past Lehtonen to tie the game.

The Stars took the lead for good late in the period when Colton Sceviour circled out from behind the Caps’ net, looped around the left wing circle, made his way all the way around to the top of the right wing circle and wristed the puck past Holtby 16:55 into the period.

Dallas poured it on in the second period, scoring a pair of goals less than seven minutes apart, both on power plays.  Tyler Seguin took advantage of time and space to wind and fire a slap shot over Holtby’s blocker on the short side from the Ovechkin circle at 7:21.  Vernon Fiddler made it 4-1 at 14:05 moments after Eric Fehr shot wide on a shorthanded chance.  The puck skittered to center ice where Ales Hemsky picked it up.  He skated into the Caps’ end, toe-dragged between Brooks Laich and Tim Gleason, then slid the puck over to Fiddler for a tap-in that ended Holtby’s night. 

Justin Peters prevented any further damage, but that unleashed by the Stars was already sufficient.  Evgeny Kuznetsov added a cosmetic goal on a shot from the right wing boards that surprised Lehtonen as it sailed over his left shoulder.   It was too little, too late, as the Caps fell, 4-2.

Other stuff…

-- The “game,” as it were, was in the first two periods, and in those first 40 minutes the Stars out attempted the Caps at 5-on-5 by a 36-19 margin.  The Stars had six shots and a goal before the Caps recorded their first shot on goal, 9:23 into the first period.

-- As it was, the Caps lost the Corsi battle at 5-on-5 for the game, finishing at 44.6 percent.  Barely a week ago they were 44.2 percent against Minnesota, and before that they were 46.7 against Columbus.  The Caps have been under 50 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5 in 11 of their last 15 games.  This is not a trend to be envied.

-- Three power play goals against ties a season high, set in consecutive games against Toronto and Vancouver on November 29^th and December 2^nd. 

-- Alex Ovechkin had a personal four-game goal scoring streak snapped, but he did record an assist to make it five straight games with points and in six in his last seven.  His assist on the Kuznetsov goal lifted him into a tie with Michal Pivonka and Nicklas Backstrom for the franchise record in career assists (418).

-- Curtis Glencross scored his third goal in his last four games, the first time he has done three-in-four this season.

-- This was the first game that Braden Holtby was pulled early after starting the game since he was relieved after giving up three goals on seven shots in 9:34 of work in a 6-5 loss to the San Jose Sharks on October 14^th.  He had gone 55 consecutive starts without being relieved (he relieved Justin Peters for a period in a 6-2 loss to Toronto last November 29^th).

-- The Caps were shutout on the power play on three opportunities, breaking a five-game streak with power play goals scored.

-- Kuznetsov’s goal was his first since February 5^th in a 2-1 win over Ottawa.  He had gone 16 games without a goal.  He led the Caps in shots on goal with four.

-- The defense managed only two shots on goal for the evening (Mike Green, John Carlson) despite 14 shot attempts.

-- The bench penalty for too-many men on the ice was just the fifth bench minor for the Caps this season.  They had been tied for second fewest bench minors in the league.

-- The hits were 36-11, Caps.  That’s what happens when the other team has the puck all the time.

In the end…

The Caps are not playing very good hockey at the moment.  It isn’t the worst time for them to have this slump (mid-April would be), but it isn’t the best time to have it, either.  Take away the scrimmage against Buffalo, and the Caps have four goals in the other three of their last four games, all losses.  Just as alarming is their Corsi-for percentage in close score situations in those three games – 41.0.  The Caps aren’t playing “heavy” as much as they are playing “slow.”

And now, the Boston Bruins will visit Verizon Center on Sunday evening with an opportunity to pass the Capitals for the first wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference if they do not do so on Saturday with a win over Pittsburgh.  They are on a roll, winners of four in a row and six of their last seven.  Meanwhile, the Caps are trying to figure out how all the air went out their balloon after the 14-1-4 run in December and January.  Over their last 26 games they are 12-12-2, 6-6-1 against teams that today would qualify for the post season.

The longest home stand of the season has been disappointing with three losses in four contests.  The Caps have one game from which they can salvage something short of a disaster.  More important, they have to demonstrate that their best hockey is ahead of them, not a Christmas present last December.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 69: Stars at Capitals, March 13th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Redskins and the Dallas Cowboys is one of the most renowned rivalries in the National Football League.  The Washington Capitals and the Dallas Stars?  Uh…no.  Since the teams first met in October 1974, when the Stars were in Minnesota and were the “North Stars,” they have done battle 90 times.  Washington trails in the series with a 29-44-16-1 record, which includes a 5-4 loss in Dallas on January 17^th, a game in which the Caps fought back from a 0-3 deficit to tie the game, only to allow goals 16 seconds apart in the third period to stifle the comeback.

More recently, the Stars have been trying to claw out from under the wreckage of a six-game losing streak (0-4-2) that dropped them from four points behind the San Jose Sharks for the last playoff spot to six points out of that spot (trailing the Calgary Flames) and all but ruining their playoff hopes.  Since that losing streak the Stars are 3-1-0, but the damage might have been done.

The real damage was done just before that losing streak, though.  Late in the third period of a game against the Florida Panthers, with the Stars nursing a 2-0 lead, Panther defenseman Dmitry Kulikov hit Tyler Seguin low and sent the Stars forward sprawling across the ice.  Seguin suffered a knee injury, Kulikov was suspended for four games for clipping Seguin, and the Stars started falling further out of the discussion of playoff contenders.

Seguin returned to the lineup last Saturday against Tampa Bay and scored a pair of goals after missing ten games.  It did not matter; the Stars lost to the Lightning, 5-4.  As it is, even with Seguin having missed those ten games he is second on the team in total scoring (61 points), and leads the team in goals (31) by a substantial margin over Jamie Benn (23).  Seguin is 4-3-7 in 14 career games against the Caps, including a goal and an assist in the Stars’ 5-4 win on January 17th.

Of players playing in the first six seasons of their careers over the 2009-2010 to the 2014-2015 seasons, only John Tavares has scored more goals (169) than Jamie Benn (139).  He has scored 20 or more goals in each of his five full seasons to date (including this one), and was on a pace to do so in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season (12 in 41 games).  Lately, though, Benn seems to have lost his touch.  Since recording a hat trick against the St. Louis Blues in a 4-1 win on February 17^th, Benn has one goal in his last ten games, none in his last eight.  He is 2-4-6 in six career games against Washington.

Kari Lehtonen wins games in goal for the Stars, but he isn’t especially effective in doing so.  Only three goalies in the NHL have allowed four or more goals more times than Lehtonen (15) – Edmonton’s Ben Scrivens (17), Arizona’s Mike Smith (18), and Jhonas Enroth (15 times with Buffalo, three times with Dallas).  His 2.94 goals against average ranks 36^th of 43 qualifying goaltenders; his .906 save percentage ranks 33^rd in that group.  Lehtonen’s save percentage at even strength (.911) ranks 36^th among goalies appearing in at least 25 games.  Put another way, he is not stealing games.  Lehtonen is 12-24-5 when the Stars score three or fewer goals.  What he does have, though, is wins against the Caps.  Lehtonen has not beaten any team in his career as often as he has beaten the Caps (14-6-2, 2.61, .924, two shutouts in 22 appearances).

1.  Only St. Louis has scored five or more goals in more games (15) than the Stars (14; 11-1-2).  The Stars are one of only four teams to have scored five goals in a game and lost in regulation this season (the New York Islanders, Calgary, and the Caps being the others).  They lost, 7-5, to the Islanders on October 25^th.  By the way, the Caps’ loss in this category was a 6-5 decision against the Arizona Coyotes on November 2^nd.

2.  Dallas scores goals every which way.  They rank fourth in goals scored at 5-on-5 (144), seventh in 5-on-4 goals (39), tied for fifth in 5-on-3 goals (3), tied for tenth in 4-on-4 goals (6), and tied for fourth in 4-on-5 goals.

3.  Dallas allows goals every which way, too.  Their 153 goals allowed at 5-on-5 is second-most in the league.  They are tied for fifth in most goals allowed at 4-on-4 (6).  The Stars are second worst in allowing 4-on-4 goals (8).  They are tied for second worst in allowing goals at 3-on-4 (2; the Caps are worst with four goals allowed).  Dallas is tied for eighth in most goals allowed at 4-on-5 (39).

4.  Holding leads is an issue for the Stars.  They have the sixth worst winning percentage in the league when scoring first (.583/21-9-6).  They have the tenth-worst winning percentage when taking a lead into the first intermission (.727/16-5-1), and they have lost eight games when leading at the second intermission (three losses in regulation, five in extra time).  No team has lost more games when leading after 40 minutes.

5.  Shot attempts are hardly scarce in Stars games.  Dallas leads the league in total Corsi events (shot attempts), both teams, per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (118.1) and total Fenwick attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (87.2). 

1.  Last season the Caps had 16 players who finished the season in double-digits in points out of 35 skaters dressing for the club.  This season they have 17 players with ten or more points out of 27 skaters dressing for the team.  If there is an 18^th, it would seem new Capital Curtis Glencross would be the best candidate.  He has four points in four games and has 14 more games to get six points.

2.  Health has been an issue for the Caps over the past few days, but it remains that the Caps have had a comparatively fortunate season thus far.  Through 68 games, the Caps have had 13 players appear in 60 or more games.  In 2013-2014, the Caps had only 12 players all season who appeared in 60 or more games.

3.  The Caps still have the league’s best record in games decided by three or more goals (12-3).  Three of the Caps’ last six games have ended in such decisions, and the Caps are 2-1 in those games.

4.  Washington has the league’s second-best special teams index at home (112.5, the sum of power play and penalty kill percentages).  Detroit has the best (115.0).

5.  One would like the Caps to get off to better starts, possession-wise.  Washington is 19th in the league in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 in the first period (50.0).  They are much better in the second period (52.9/6^th), but they slip back again in the third period (50.5/18^th).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Dallas: Antoine Roussel

Among the Stars’ top goal scorers, Tyler Seguin has missed time to injury (as noted above), as has Trevor Daley (out the last week after a knee-on-knee hit from the Islanders’ Matt Martin).  Erik Cole was traded to Detroit, and Cody Eakin was suspended by the team for disciplinary reasons earlier this week (he was reinstated for Thursday’s game against Carolina).  Where is the secondary scoring coming from?  Perhaps Antoine Roussel.  The third year forward is seventh on the team in goals (12), and he is the only player in the league with 12 or more goals and 125 or more penalty minutes.  He is also a team-worst minus-14, so perhaps there are limits to his contributions.  He has not done much scoring of late, though.  He has one goal in his last 21 games, over which he is a minus-12.  In three career games against the Caps he is 1-0-1.

Washington: Troy Brouwer

When Troy Brouwer scored 25 goals and recorded 43 points last season – both career highs – the thinking coming into this season was that a regression was in order.  Well, if there is to be one, it might not be much.  Brouwer is on a pace to finish 22-19-41.  The 19 assists would tie a career high, and the 22 goals would tie his second best season, 2009-2010 with Chicago.  He has found the goals a little harder to come by lately; he has three goals in his last 17 games.  Part of the problem might be a bit more frequency in his trips to the penalty box.  Brouwer recorded 22 of his 45 penalty minutes this season in his last 14 games.  He is 5-5-10 in 16 career games against the Stars.

In the end…

The Caps have shown a skill lately of dispatching struggling teams effectively.  They beat Buffalo (6-1), Columbus (5-3), and Toronto (4-0), teams looking past this season.  Dallas is on the brink of falling out of the Western Conference race if they have not already.  Their strength – scoring goals – has suffered some slippage in March with 13 goals in five games (their season average is 3.08 goals per game).  The Caps can use this game as a springboard to get through a softer stretch of their schedule (they get the Stars, Sabres, and Devils over their next six games before facing Nashville and the Rangers in back-to-back games). 

The Caps, who looked to be firmly installed as the first wild card team and challenging for the Metropolitan Division lead a week ago, are now just four points ahead of Boston with the Bruins holding two games in hand and trailing the Caps by only one win in regulation and overtime. This game against the Stars is one that the Caps need to win, more than one might think looking at the records of the two teams.

Capitals 5 – Stars 3

A NO-Point Night -- Game 68: Rangers 3 - Capitals 1

If there were any messages to be sent in last night’s game between the Washington Capitals and the New York Rangers, it was the Rangers doing the sending, that they are the team to be beat in the Metropolitan Division, if not the Eastern Conference. The Rangers smothered the Caps behind goalie Cam Talbot’s 28 saves, 3-1, at Verizon Center.

Carl Hagelin got the Rangers on the board first, finishing after some persistent pressure in the Caps’ end by batting in a loose puck from the top of the crease past goalie Braden Holtby 8:20 into the game.

Washington tied it three minutes later on a power play. After the Caps put in some hard work digging out the puck from below the Ranger goal line, Evgeny Kuznetsov collected the loose puck in the corner and fed Alex Ovechkin for a one timer above the left wing circle. The shot hit the stick of Ranger defender Jesper Fast and changed direction, sailing past Talbot’s blocker to tie the game.

J.T. Miller broke the tie before the first intermission when the Caps could not clear the puck out of their own zone. Tim Gleason’s attempted clear hit a seam in the glass and ricocheted back to the middle of the ice where Kevin Hayes picked it up. Hayes backed through the high slot, then fed Miller, who wristed the puck past Holtby on the short side to make it 2-1 for the visitors.

That would be all for the scoring until late in the third period when John Carlson’s pass to Nate Schmidt at the top of the offensive zone was intercepted by Chris Kreider. It set up a two-on-one break with Martin St. Louis that became a two-on-none as Carlson was left chasing the pair as they entered the Caps’ zone. Krieder skated in and fed St. Louis for the tap-in that ended the suspense for the evening, the Rangers skating off with the 3-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- The loss was the fourth in the last five games the Caps have played against Metropolitan Division opponents.

-- Ovechkin’s power play goal made it five straight games in which the Caps recorded a goal with the extra man. They are 6-for-11 over that span (54.5 percent).

-- The Caps were a perfect 3-for-3 killing penalties, making it five games in six that they have been so and going 15-for-16 over those six games (93.8 percent).

-- Mike Green and Brooks Orpik sat out with ailments; Cameron Schilling and Nate Schmidt taking over. It was Orpik’s first missed game as a Capital.

-- The absences made a difference.  All three Ranger goals were scored with make-shift pairs on the ice for the Caps.  Schmidt and John Carlson were on for the first and third Ranger goals, Tim Gleason and Schilling for the second New York goal (although that was bad luck as much as anything).

-- Fifteen of the 18 skaters for the Caps were credited with hits, Tom Wilson leading the team with six. Evgeny Kuznetsov was next in line with four (and you thought “hits” was an arbitrary stat).

-- Joel Ward’s assist on the Ovechkin goal made it four in his last five games with a point.

-- Ovechkin’s goal was his 45th of the season; he joins four other players in NHL history with seven or more 45-goal seasons (Marcel Dionne, Mario Lemieux, Mike Bossy, and Wayne Gretzky).

-- Jay Beagle, who has enjoyed a substantial amount of time on scoring lines this season, skated under eight minutes for just the third time this season (7:43). He suffered an upper body injury and did not skate in the third period.

-- Eric Fehr was 12-for-15 on faceoffs, accounting for all of the advantage the Caps had in the circle for the game (38 wins, 29 losses).

In the end…

Barry Trotz said the right things about a third of his defense being spare parts… “They were both fine.  We handled it okay. That’s a pretty good team on the other side there. They’re deep and they’re fast. They were a good test for our guys. We’re missing a couple important guys. Would they make a difference in the game? I don’t know. But it’s not an excuse. We played well enough to at least get a point tonight.” 

That’s fine for media consumption, but the fact is that the Caps have lost three straight games to the Rangers, dating back to last season.  This is a team that is likely to be standing in the Caps’ path at some point in the post season, and the Caps need to demonstrate that they can do better than “well enough,” even if they are nicked up.  They will have two more chances in the regular season, perhaps facing a once-more healthy Henrik Lundqvist in goal.  Cam Talbot did a pretty good imitation of him on Wednesday night, a demonstration that injury – even to the team’s most important player – need not be debilitating.  The Caps have work to do.