Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 6

The Washington Capitals have yet to experience losses in consecutive games this season.  Keeping that streak going in Week 6 ensured that they would not experience consecutive non-winning weeks for the first time this season.

Record: 2-1-0

After a 1-1-1 week in Week 5 in which the fate of the week was determined by the last game of the week, the Caps repeated the pattern in Week 6.  Unlike the result in Week 5, in which they lost to the Calgary Flames in overtime to finish with their first non-winning week of the season, the Caps steamrolled another Western Conference team – the Colorado Avalanche – to end Week 6 on a happier note.  It left the Caps with a 5-2-1 record against Western Conference teams.  On a standings points per game basis, their record so far against the West (1.38 points per game) is hardly distinguishable from that against the East (1.45 points per game).

Offense:  3.67/game (season: 3.16 /game; rank: 4th)

Did someone say, “sample size?” In a three-game week, an outlier – good or bad – will influence results quite a bit.  Such was the case in Week 6.  After recording a pair of goals in each of the first two games of the week, the Caps matched that total in the first period of their game against the Colorado Avalanche to close the week, then they added three more to finish with seven of their 11 goals for the week in a 7-3 win.

There were eight different goal scorers for the week and 14 different players with points.  Justin Williams, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Alex Ovechkin each finished the week with a pair of goals.  Meanwhile, Kuznetsov (2-2-4) and Nicklas Backstrom (1-3-4) led the team in points for Week 6.  There were some surprises for the week, too, mostly on defense.  Four blueliners had goals for the week.  John Carlson, Nate Schmidt, Karl Alzner, and Dmitry Orlov all recorded goals in the Caps’ 7-3 win over Colorado to end the week.  Orlov’s goal snapped a 36-game personal streak without a goal dating back to March 2014.  He did it in fine style, too.

There were also the infrequently heard from Taylor Chorney, who recorded a pair of assists for the week (his first two points as a Capital), and there was also Jason Chimera, who recorded three assists in the win over Colorado, giving him two three-point games in his last five contests.

The big individual highlight of the week was Alex Ovechkin recording his 484^th career goal, leaving him alone atop the list of Russian-born goal scorers in NHL history.  The goal came in the Caps’ only loss of the week, and it was a bit unusual in the way he scored it – a tap-in from the doorstep – but a goal off a Nicklas Backstrom feed has become quite a regular occurrence for the Caps over the past eight-plus years, and there should be many more to come.

Defense: 2.33/game (season: 2.32/game; rank: 6th)

The Caps continued their stinginess about allowing shots on goal in Week 6 with one exception.  After holding the Detroit Red Wings to 26 shots on goal in the first game of the week – the 15^th consecutive game that Washington held an opponent to 30 or fewer shots – they allowed 31 shots on goal to the Dallas Stars in losing the middle game of the week, 3-2.

There was an odd sort of balance in the defense this week, and that was on the blue line.  The Matt Niskanen/Karl Alzner pair and the John Carlson/Nate Schmidt pair each were on ice for three of the seven goals scored against the Caps for the week.  The Taylor Chorney/Dmitry Orlov pair was on ice for the other one.  Brooks Orpik missed all three games with an injury.

It was not the best of weeks for the Caps, possession-wise.  In overall, score-adjusted, and close score situations, they were on the right side of 50 percent Corsi-for only in score-adjusted, and that was 50.2 percent (a plus-1 differential; numbers from war-on-ice.com).  That was the problem with playing a good possession team themselves (Detroit) and a high-powered offensive team (Dallas).

Goaltending: 2.34 /.917 (season: 2.16 / .915)

Caps fans might be spoiled by the team’s goaltending if they thought it was a poor one in the nets.  As it was, it was a decent week.  Not a great one and not a disaster – a decent week.  It was also a week that illustrated the differences between last season and this.  With the Caps playing three games in Week 6, including a back-to-back, Braden Holtby almost certainly would have had all three starts if this was last season.  This season and this week, Philipp Grubauer got the middle game of the week, and he provided a good effort against a difficult opponent.  He allowed three goals on 31 shots against the top offensive team in the league, the Dallas Stars (3.55 goals per game at week’s end).  Unfortunately for him and the Caps, it was also the lone loss for the week. 

Braden Holtby bookended the week, beating the Detroit Red Wings in overtime and getting the win in the 7-3 win over Colorado on Saturday.  Overall he had a typically fine week (1.99 goals against, .925 save percentage), but while he was superb against the Red Wings (25 saves on 26 shots), he was uncharacteristically off his game a bit against the Avalanche, allowing three goals on 27 shots, the first time he allowed three goals in a game at home since he allowed three on 27 shots in a 5-0 loss to the San Jose Sharks in Game 2 of the season.

Power Play: 2-for-10 / 20.0 percent (season: 22.0 percent; rank: 7th)

The Caps are stuck on “two.”  They finished Week 6 with two power play goals, the third straight week they did so and for the fourth time in their last five weeks since recording five power play goals in Week 1.  In fact, over the last five weeks the Caps are just 8-for-46 with the man advantage (17.4 percent).

The best thing about the power play for the week was that the Caps recorded goals in both games in which they had power plays.  In the middle game of the week, against the Stars, the Caps were held without a power play opportunity for the first time this season.  In the other two games they had decent production, recording two goals on 18 shots in 19:03 of power play time.  It was a bit frustrating in two respects, though.  First, Alex Ovechkin drew a blank on six power play shots in 15:10 of total power play time.  He is 1-for-33 shooting on the power play this season (3.0 percent).

The other frustration was T.J. Oshie, who had two excellent opportunities from point blank one-timers against the Colorado Avalanche from the slot.  They were his only two power play shots on goal for the week.

Penalty Killing: 4-for-5 / 80.0 percent (season: 84.3 percent; rank: 8th)

The five shorthanded situations faced by the Caps in Week 6 was a season-low for a week and the fourth straight week in which they faced fewer than ten opponent power plays.  Washington has faced the fourth fewest number of shorthanded situations this season (51 in 19 games).  Only Buffalo, Minnesota, and Carolina have faced fewer.  No team has allowed fewer power play goals overall (8, tied with Carolina).

It was an efficient week for the penalty killers. They allowed only six shots on goal in 9:23 of power play time (0.64 shots per minute) and just the one power play goal, to the Avalanche in the week’s last game.  That goal was a bit disappointing, allowing the Avs to break down the Caps’ defense down low starting with what was the second instance of Jarome Iginla starting a play from low in the left wing corner on the same power play.  They Avs did better learning from the first instance than did the Caps.  Still, it was a pretty good week.

Even Strength 5-on-5 Goals for/Goals Against: 8-6 / even (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.26; rank: 3^rd)

What a difference one game can make.  The Caps were on their way to finishing the week under 50 percent of 5-on-5 goals scored (minus-2) when they took the ice against Colorado on Saturday.  Against the Avs the Caps won the even-strength battle, 6-2, on their way to a 7-3 win.  Seven different Caps shared in the 5-on-5 goals for the week, Alex Ovechkin the only player with two.  Add in a 3-on-3 goal in overtime by Evgeny Kuznetsov, and it was a pretty good week scoring at evens for the Caps.

Faceoffs: 88-for-171 / 51.5 percent (season: 50.6% / rank: 10th)

Week 6 in the faceoff circle looked a lot like Week 5 – good overall, but not so much in the particulars.  The Caps finished with the same winning percentage overall (51.5) that they did last week, but they were on the wrong side of 50 percent in two of the three games (pounding Colorado in the last game of the week for a 65.0 percent winning percentage) and struggling in the defensive zone (46.9 percent for the week).

Individually, four Caps took almost 90 percent of the draws overall.  Nicklas Backstrom (52.3 percent), Jay Beagle (55.0), and Michael Latta (65.6) had good weeks overall.  Evgeny Kuznetsov, on the other hand, had a pretty dismal week on the dot, finishing with just a 32.4 percent winning percentage on 37 draws.

Goals by Period:

It was an odd week for the Caps when you break the week down into its 20-minute increments.  Washington scored 11 goals for the week, none of them in the second period.  The middle period is also the only one in which the Caps were outscored for the week (0-2).  The best part of the week in this category was scoring six first period goals, including four in the first period against Colorado on Saturday.  Outscoring the Avs by a 4-0 margin in the opening 20 minutes broke a nine-game streak in which the Caps allowed the game’s first goal.  The four-spot also represented the first time the Caps opened a game with a four-goal first period since scoring four goals in the first 8:10 of the game in a 7-1 win over the Florida Panthers on March 7, 2013.

The big first periods for the week left the Caps tied for fifth in first period goals scored by week’s end.  But the third period was not bad, either.  It was only a 4-3 margin, but the Caps finished Week 6 with the fourth highest number of third period goals scored.  The disappointment here was in allowing the Dallas Stars to score the game-winner in a 3-2 loss in the third period after tying the game.

In the end…

This was the kind of week that had “big picture” written all over it.  In the “big picture,” the Caps might not want to overwork number one goalie Braden Holtby or at least subject him to 73 appearances as they did last season.  That argued for giving Philipp Grubauer a start, his fourth in 19 games.  At their respective paces, Holtby would finish with 65 appearances, Grubauer with 17, a much more manageable split between number one and backup than might have been the case last season.  And, while the Caps did lose Grubauer’s start to Dallas, it was not a case of succumbing to Dallas’ style of play.  They more than held their own in the possession numbers, a trait that has been consistent over the span of the entire season so far (the Caps are fourth overall in Corsi-for at 5-on-5).  It was one more week very much like the first five installments. 

The personality of the team is coming into focus as they reach the 20-game mark – consistent, fine possession characteristics, good goaltending, balanced scoring.  What more could one want at this stage of the season?  It will come in handy as the Capitals head into Thanksgiving Week and their first true four-game week of the season.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-1-3, plus-3, 14 shots on goal, 69.2 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5; new all-time leader in goals by Russian-born players)
• Second Star: Justin Williams (2-0-2, 55.1 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5)
• Third Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (2-2-4, plus-3, OT/GWG)

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 7 - Avalanche 3

The Washington Capitals showed little mercy to a team on the back end of a long road trip.  They scored early and often, and they scored late and often in demolishing the Colorado Avalanche, 7-3, at Verizon Center on Saturday night.

The Caps wasted little time putting the visitors in a hole.  Justin Williams one-timed a feed from Jason Chimera past goalie Reto Berra just as a power play was expiring three minutes into the game.  Alex Ovechkin scored barely four minutes later when he took advantage of too many Colorado skaters playing too low, drifting down into the offensive zone and one-timing a shot from just inside the right wing faceoff circle to make it 2-0 at the 7:15 mark of the period.

John Carlson made it 3-0 ten minutes into the first period, taking advantage of a flurry of activity in front of the Colorado net that had Berra scrambling in his crease to fire a shot from the top of the right wing circle before Berra could get across to defend the shot.

Nate Schmidt closed the scoring in the first period when he collected a long rebound from Berra and rifled a shot past Berra’s blocker on the short side from the top of the left wing faceoff circle.

Colorado tried to make a game of it in the second period, largely the result of some overly creative play by the Caps, who seemed intent of entertaining the fans with exquisite passing displays instead of pounding relief goalie Calvin Pickard.  Tending to their own business paid off for the Avs with an early goal by Cody McLeod and a late score by Nathan MacKinnon to halve the Caps’ lead going into the second intermission.

The Caps slammed the door on any hopes of a Colorado comeback when Evgeny Kuznetsov redirected a Jason Chimera drive through Pickard’s pads to make it 5-2 on a power play 6:34 into the third period. 

Then it was time for some comic relief, courtesy of Dmitry Orlov.  Skating into the offensive zone, Orlov froze defenseman Nick Holden with a curl and drag, then lifted a shot that Pickard repelled.  Pickard thought he had the puck caught in his equipment, but it popped into the air behind the net.  While Pickard was taking inventory of his gear in search of the puck, Orlov recovered the biscuit, the only person in the ice, save for the referee standing next to him, knowing that the puck was still in play.  Orlov circled out to find a shooting angle, and by the time Tyson Barrie realized what had happened and tried to do his best imitation of a goaltender, Orlov picked the near side of the net for the goal and a 6-2 Caps lead.

After Andreas Martinsen got the Avs back to within three goals by more or less allowing a Zach Redmond shot hit him on the way through to the net, Karl Alzner closed the scoring by jumping up into the left wing circle, taking a feed from T.J. Oshie, and slamming the puck into the far side of the net past Pickard, capping a big night for the Caps and a 7-3 win.

Other stuff…

-- This was the third time that the Caps recorded more than five goals in a game.  They did it three times all of last season.

-- Every Caps defenseman recorded a point; four defensemen recorded goals.

--  For Evgeny Kuznetsov, it was his third game of three of more points this season.  He had none last season.  He is also 4-10-14, plus-6 against Western Conference teams after going 1-2-3, plus-2 in this game.

-- When the Caps scored first in this game it broke a streak of nine games allowing the first goal.  The four first-period goals was the first time the Caps recorded four goals in the opening period since scoring four goals in the first 8:10 of the game in a 7-1 win over the Florida Panthers on March 7, 2013.

-- Dmitry Orlov’s memorable goal broke a personal 36-game streak without a goal dating back to a two-goal game in a 5-4 overtime loss to the Philadelphia Flyers on March 2, 2014.

-- How dominating was this effort?  In addition to winning the battle on the scoreboard, the Caps had 62 shot attempts to 46 for the Avalanche.  They won 39 of 60 faceoffs (60.0 percent).

-- Anyone have Marcus Johansson leading the Caps in shots on goal (5)?...Anyone??

-- Alex Ovechkin scored a goal, his tenth of the season, making it consecutive games in which he recorded a goal.  When scoring goals, he has a three-game and a five-game streak this season in addition to the two-gamer he has at the moment.  That might spell trouble for Edmonton on Monday.

-- For all the scoring, the Caps still had three players without a shot attempt – Matt Niskanen, Jay Beagle, and Brooks Laich.  Niskanen and Beagle did, however, pitch in an assist apiece.

-- Braden Holtby allowed three goals on home ice for the first time since allowing three on 27 shots in a 5-0 loss to the San Jose Sharks in Game 2 of the season.  He had been 5-1-0, 1.33, .948 in his previous six games on home ice before allowing the three goals tonight.

Bonus stuff… The Caps are 6-0-0 following a loss this season, outscoring opponents by a 24-9 margin.

In the end….

The Caps rebounded once more from a loss with a win.  And, for the fourth time in six games following a loss, they recorded a win by at least a three-goal margin.  This was a bit of an odd game, though.  They jumped all over a weak team early, then almost let them back into the game.  They got fine production out of the defense (four goals and two assists), but one point and only three shots on goal from bottom-six forwards not named “Chimera,” who had three assists (his second three-point game in his last five contests).  They got good, but not top-notch play out of Braden Holtby who has been a lights-out (as in “red lights out”) goalie at home and after losses this season.  Still, the Caps did what good teams do, take advantage of opponents in a vulnerable situation.  On balance, there might be some loose ends to tie up, but it was a fine night overall.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 19: Avalanche at Capitals, November 21st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals take the ice for the second game in their five-game home stand when they host the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday night.

The Caps will be looking to avoid consecutive losses after their 3-2 loss to the Dallas Stars in the opening game of the home stand on Thursday night.  The Caps would like to start generating some momentum on this home stand; they have not won consecutive games in regulation, home and/or away, since their five-game winning streak in mid-October.

Meanwhile, the Avalanche are the epitome of the hot-and-cold team.  After going 4-9-1 in their first 14 games of the season, the Avs won three in a row for the first time this season (their first time this season with any wins in succession) and the first time they won three in a row since closing the 2014-2015 season with three victories.  However, they will head into Saturday’s contest having lost two in a row.

Colorado has spent a lot of time on the road recently.  They are coming to the end of seven-game road trip (this will be their sixth game in that itinerary).  So far they are 3-2-0 – that three-game winning streak followed by a two-game losing streak – outscoring their opponents 17-12.  The record on the trip and the goal differential masks some problems with their special teams.  The power play is 3-for-16 in their last five games (18.8 percent), while their penalty kill is 10-for-16 (62.5 percent), including a ghastly 1-for-5 in a 5-1 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs last Tuesday.

Matt Duchene has been lighting it up for Colorado on the road trip.  In five game he leads the Avs in goals (six), assists (five), and points (11).  It is part of a longer run of good fortune for the former third-overall draft pick.  Duchene has points in eight of his last nine games overall, going 9-6-15, plus-4 overall.  His hot streak comes amid rumors that he is available for trade.  If a team is going to slow him down, it might be the Caps.  Duchene is 1-2-3, minus-5 in seven career games against Washington and has just one point (a goal) in three career games at Verizon Center.

The only other Avalanche player with more than one goal on the current road trip is Nathan MacKinnon (2-3-5, plus-5).  He is on something of an extended run of productive play himself.  Only once so far this season has he gone as many as two consecutive games without a point, and he is 6-8-14, plus-8 over his last 13 games since he had those consecutive games without a point back in mid-October.  MacKinnon’s contributions have been timely, too.  Half of his eight goals for the season are game-winners, accounting for more than half of the club’s game-winning goals to date (seven).  He is 1-3-4, plus-2, in four career games against Washington.

It will be interesting to see who head coach Patrick Roy picks to serve in net in Saturday night.  Semyon Varlamov has not played since November 5th, suffering a groin injury during a morning skate in Philadelphia.  In his place, Reto Berra has played all but 6:51 in goal (Calvin Pickard got those minutes in a 5-1 loss to Toronto last Tuesday).  In six games since filling in for Varlamov, Berra is 3-3-0, 2.25, .928, but the wheels seem to be coming off his wagon.  He allowed four goals in each of his last two appearances, one of them an occasion when he was pulled for Pickard in the third period of the 5-1 loss to Toronto.  Berra has one career appearance against Washington, stopping 20 of 23 shots in a 3-2 loss to the Caps in Denver on November 20, 2014.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Mikhail Grigorenko was part of the return in the trade of Ryan O’Reilly to the Buffalo Sabres last June.  The former 12th overall pick of the Sabres is 1-4-5, plus-6 on this road trip, two of the assists coming on Matt Ducene goals, the other two on Nathan MacKinnon goals.  It is a first line that bears watching.

2.  Tyson Barrie is a defenseman that does not get a lot of attention, but he is tied for tenth in points among defensemen this season.  He does most of that damage – well, half of it – on the power play.  Half of his 12 points were recorded with the man-advantage, all of them assists.

3.  Going into the locker room at the first intermission (among other things) has been unkind to Colorado thus far.  Only once in seven tries when they trailed after one period did the Avalanche win.

4.  The Avs have the 28th ranked road power play and 29th ranked road penalty kill.  This is not generally thought of as a recipe for success.

5.  Not that their 5-on-5 play is a lot better outside Pepsi Center in Denver.  Colorado ranks 29th in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (43.1) and dead last in score-adjusted Corsi-for (44.6).  They have been a bit better on this road trip, but not much (47.3 overall/49.4 score adjusted; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  About that record-setting goal by Alex Ovechkin against Dallas.  Seems his milestone goals do not generally come in Capitals wins, at least not wins in the hockey portion of the contest.  Of the six big milestone goals of his career – “hundredth” goals, franchise record, and Russian-born player record -- only one in a game the Caps won in regulation, and that was an empty netter:

• 100: 3-1 loss to the New York Rangers
• 200: 5-4 loss to Los Angeles Kings
• 300: 3-2 shootout win over the Toronto Maple Leafs
• 400: 4-2 win over the Carolina Hurricanes (empty net)
• 473: 5-4 shootout win over the Montreal Canadiens (surpassed Peter Bondra as franchise leader)
• 484: 3-2 loss to the Dallas Stars (surpassed Sergei Fedorov for most career goals among Russian-born players)

2.  Among NHL players with at least ten games played this season, 18 of them are averaging 1.00 or more points per game.  No team has more such players than the Caps (Evgeny Kuznetsov, Alex Ovechkin, and Nicklas Backstrom, who coincidentally each average exactly 1.00 points per game).  Only Dallas has as many.  Kuznetsov is the second-youngest of the group (23 years old); only Nathan MacKinnon, who the Caps will face in this game, is younger (20).

3.  If the Caps are to dominate this game, it would seem likely the second period will be key.  The Caps have outscored opponents by a 22-11 margin in the middle frame of contests this season.  Only Dallas and the New York Islanders have a larger goal differential (plus-12) than the Caps (plus-11) in the second periods of games.

4.  Five of the last six Caps games have been one-goal decisions, three of them in extra time, including both wins (2-2-1 in those games). The Caps’ last one-goal win in regulation was their 2-1 win over Columbus on October 30th.

5.  The Caps rank seventh overall in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 on home ice (53.8).  They rank sixth in score-adjusted Corsi percentage on their own rink (52.8).  On the latter measure, only Tampa Bay is better in the Eastern Conference (54.3; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Colorado: Jarome Iginla

With seven goals in 19 games this season, third on the club, one wonders if 38-year old Jarome Iginla has some “Jaromir Jagr” in him, the capacity to be a productive offensive player well into his 40’s.  He and Jagr are the oldest players in the league this season with seven or more goals (both have seven).  Oddly enough, both also have 15 points to date.  Iginla, the league’s second-leading active career goal scorer (to who else, Jagr), is enjoying a late career renaissance.  His numbers tapering off with Calgary in 2012-2013 and then traded to Pittsburgh late that season, his 14 goals in 44 games signaled what might have been the beginning of the end for the four-time 40 goal scorer (twice a 50-goal scorer).  However, over his last two-plus seasons (one with Boston and one-plus with Colorado), he has 66 goals in 179 games, a 30-goal pace per 82 games.  He is on precisely that pace this season.  In 23 career games against Washington, Iginla is 8-11-19, minus-3.

Washington: Braden Holtby

Over last season and so far this season, only five goaltenders have appeared in at least 50 games, posted a goals against average of less than 2.20 and a save percentage of .920 or better.  That list includes Carey Price, Henrik Lundqvist, Pekka Rinne, Devan Dubnyk, and Washington’s Braden Holtby.  That is quite a short list on which he finds himself, and he is doing it this year through sheer force of consistency.  All goalies must contend with slumps, but that is something Holtby has been able to avoid over the past two seasons.  Only once in his last 46 appearances dating back to last season has he had consecutive games allowing more than three goals.  In those games he is 29-14-2, 2.05, .926, with five shutouts (one no-decision, and he was pulled early from games twice).  In three career games against Colorado, Holtby is 2-1-0, 2.33, .929.

In the end…

On paper, this match-up certainly favors the Caps heavily.  They are a very good possession team, Colorado is not.  The Caps have very good special teams, the Avalanche do not.  The Caps have had a decent, if not great, November (4-3-2), Colorado is coming to town in the midst of a long road trip and losers of their last two contests.  The Capitals have stability and talent in goal, the Avalanche have less of both.  What is more, now that Alex Ovechkin has put the Russian-born player goal scoring record behind him, he could be in for adding more in bunches.  The forces are converging to suggest a blowout.

Capitals 6 – Avalanche 2

Washington Capitals Recap: A NO-Point Night: Stars 3 - Capitals 2

It might have made for a great story – a record-setting goal scored in the third period to tie a tense game on the way to victory. The goal was scored, but the victory was not in the cards as the Washington Capitals lost to the Dallas Stars, 3-2, at Verizon Center on Thursday night.

The goal that tied the game in the third period was Alex Ovechkin’s ninth of the season and 484th of his career, leaving him all alone at the top of the list of Russian-born goal scorers in NHL history. There were familiar and unusual aspects to the score. It did not come off a rush or a one-timer on a power play, two signature Ovechkin methods over the course of his career for lighting the red light. It came from some chaos in front of the Stars’ from which Ovechkin and the Caps benefitted.

Ovechkin started the sequence trying to take advantage of a sluggish Dallas line change. With the Stars still trying to get into defensive position in their own end, Ovechkin threw a shot from the left point toward the net with the aim of having T.J. Oshie redirect it. Oshie did get a stick on the puck, but it was turned aside by goalie Kari Lehtonen. Oshie recovered the puck and sent to across the low slot where is got caught up in a maze of bodies. It found its way to the stick of Nicklas Backstrom, and it was Backstrom’s no-look backhand pass that found Ovechkin on the doorstep to Lehtonen’s right. Ovechkin had only to stuff the puck into the open side of the net, and the record was his, the game now tied at 2-2 with just under 13 minutes left in regulation.

The Caps could not get that third goal, though. Dallas did, a little over four minutes after Ovechkin’s record-setter.  It came off a giveaway in front of the Capitals’ net when Jason Chimera collected a loose puck to the right of goalie Philipp Grubauer and tried to move it along to Jay Beagle at the top of the opposite faceoff circle.  Jason Spezza stepped in the way, intercepted the pass and snapped a shot past Grubauer, all in the blink of an eye for what would be the game-winning goal in the Stars 3-2 win.

Other stuff…

-- Before Ovechkin’s record-setting goal, the Stars sandwiched a pair of goals around a Caps tally.  Tyler Seguin scored the game’s first goal 9:28 into the game on a shot from between the circles.  The goal was reviewed but upheld.  Nicklas Backstrom tied the game when he backhanded a rebound of a Taylor Chorney shot past goalie Kari Lehtonen.  The tie lasted into the second period when former Cap Cody Eakin redirected a John Klingberg shot down and past a screened Philipp Grubauer.

-- Ovechkin almost set the record on a more conventional Ovechkin play in the second period.  Skating down the right side, he used a defender as a screen and snapped a shot that beat Lehtonen cleanly but hit the inside of the near post and caromed out the other side behind Lehtonen.

-- The goal by Dallas in the first period was the ninth consecutive time the Caps allowed the game’s first goal.  The Caps are 5-3-1 in those games.

-- The loss was the Caps’ first loss at home in regulation since dropping a 3-1 decision to the Pittsburgh Penguins on October 28th.

-- The Caps are no fans of the coach’s challenge.  Barry Trotz’ challenge of Tyler Seguin’s goal, claiming that Patrick Sharp interfered with Grubauer, was the seventh time the Caps have been a party to a challenge, and for the sixth time they lost.

-- Another almost… Tom Wilson had two chances to score less than five minutes into the second period.  He had his first chance – a one-timer off a drop feed from Nicklas Backstrom – turned away by Lehtonen, and then moments later had a loose puck at the top of the Stars’ crease that he was about to stuff in, but he stumbled over Lehtonen’s left pad and pushed the puck wide.

-- Dallas finished the game with 31 shots on goal, breaking a streak of 15 games in which the Caps held opponents to 30 or fewer shots.

-- For the first time this season, the Caps were not awarded a power play opportunity.  Dallas was not penalized in this contest.  The Caps took only two minor penalties, killing both shorthanded situations.

-- Taylor Chorney recorded his first point as a Capital with his assist on the Backstrom goal.  Backstrom recorded a goal and an assist, giving him his fifth multi-poing game this season.

-- Odd thing about this game for Ovechkin was that the absence of power plays meant he skated only 16:11 for the game, his lowest ice time of the season to date and his lowest since skating 16:10 in a 5-3 win in Anaheim last February 15th.  He had a four-point game (2-2-4) in that one.

In the end…

It was something of a bittersweet night – a record and a loss – and now it is time to move on with the business of the remaining 64 games of the season.  This was something of a test for the Caps, a game in which they get mixed marks. They held a high-scoring team largely in check, but they had a critical mistake late in a game that is not generally characteristic of their play lately.  They got solid play once more from Philipp Grubauer in a relief role, the goals being of the sort that would have been challenging for any goaltender to stop.

It was a disappointing start to a five-game home stand, but the next four games line up pretty well for the Caps in terms of schedule (no back-to-backs) and competition.  This is the part of the schedule where the sun shines on the Caps.  Time to make hay.

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 2 - Red Wings 1 OT

One-game road trip, one-win road trip.  The Washington Capitals took extra time in their contest against the Detroit Red Wings on Wednesday night, but they made sure the investment was worth the effort as they emerged from Joe Louis Arena with a 2-1 win over the Wings.

Evgeny Kuznetsov scored just 45 seconds into the extra period, taking advantage of the fact that Henrik Zetterberg was at the end of a shift to walk around him from the right wing wall, move the puck from his backhand to his forehand as he was circling to the net, then lifting the puck under the right arm of goalie Petr Mrazek and just inside the far post for the game-winner.

Until then it had been a virtual low-scoring repeat of the 1-0 win the Wings authored over the Caps last week.  Dylan Larkin started the scoring early in the first period, putting Detroit on top at the 2:48 mark when he beat goalie Braden Holtby off a rush from the top of the right wing circle on a shot that Holtby might have wanted back.

Justin Williams tied the game just over eight minutes later on a Caps power play when he set up at the side of the net to the left of Mrazek, called for the puck, and when Matt Niskanen fired it in, redirected it behind Mrazek at the 10:54 mark.

And that was it.  The goalies took over from there, putting on their second clinic in barely a week, this time without the fluky goal from the goal line.

Other stuff…

-- Mrazek, bearing the red adornments of the Red Wings, added a red-colored accessory to his equipment – the pipes.  The Caps banged several shots off the crossbar that might have made this game a bit of a laugher had the shots caromed in instead of out.  Then again, you only have to cover the space between the pipes.

-- There was one other sly aspect of Kuznetsov’s game winner that should not go unmentioned.  Yes, he had Zetterberg at the end of a shift, and the Detroit forward might have been feeling a bit winded, but as Karl Alzner was headed to the bench for a change, Kuznetsov used him a bit like a running back would use an offensive lineman on a running play.  He had Alzner between himself and Zetterberg, able to hide for an instant behind him before cutting to the outside at the blue line.  It was not quite a pick, but it provided a bit of separation for Kuznetsov, just enough to get position on Zetterberg on his way to the net.

-- The Record Watch continues.  Alex Ovechkin…eight shot attempts, six shots on goal, no goals.  He is now four games without a point, but with 26 shots on goal in that span, he sure isn’t lacking for shot volumes.

-- Matt Niskanen had a pair of assists, giving him points (four assists) in each of his last three games.

-- The power play got a goal, but 1-for-6 for the evening continues a curious slide for the special team.  They are 5-for-33 (15.2 percent) over their last ten games on the man advantage.

-- On the other side, there was the discipline not to put themselves a man short.  Two penalties, both killed off with just three shots on goal allowed.

-- It might be picking nits, but Kuznetsov was 2-for-12 on faceoffs…yeesh.

-- Karl Alzner had an assist.  It added another instance in a quirky trend of his – scoring in pairs.  He has six points this season, accumulated as the product of three two-game point streaks.  He had an assist against Calgary in the Caps last outing last Friday.

-- Since allowing five goals o 22 shots to the New York Rangers in a 5-2 loss on November 3^rd, Braden Holtby has allowed two or fewer goals in five straight games, going 4-1-0, 1.39, .945.

-- If Tom Wilson has been reading notices of his being put on notice for his style of play, he didn’t shot it.  His five hits led all players from both teams.

In the end…

It was a well-played road game for the Caps.  Not unlike the game they played on this ice sheet just eight days earlier, it pointed out the thin margin on which wins and losses are recorded.  Eight days ago, the game turned on a leaky moment from the goaltender.  In this one, it was a leak-free performance and a sneaky goal in overtime.  And the Caps keep grinding along.  They don’t have, as yet, flashy long winning streaks like the Rangers’ current nine-game run or Montreal’s nine-game streak to start the season, but their 6-3-1 record over their past ten games is currently the fifth-best ten-game record in the league. 

The Caps will get to add another measure to that record tonight when they take on the Stars, a team that is quite different from the Red Wings in their ability to score quickly and often. If there is one thing the Caps have shown an ability to do this season, given the nature of their progress, it is their ability to cope with a variety of opponents’ styles. 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 17: Capitals at Red Wings, November 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals spent a brief, if unsuccessful, respite at home for one game last week, and now they return to the Motor City for their second contest against the Detroit Red Wings in eight days on Wednesday night.  What Caps fans will be hoping for is that the Caps do not repeat their effort in a 1-0 loss to the Wings last Tuesday. 

The Caps have struggled on offense lately.  Over their last nine contests the team is 5-3-1, but they have only 20 goals scored (2.22 per game) while holding opponents to 19 goals (2.11 per game). It does not seem to be a possession problem for the Caps.  Their Corsi-for percentages at 5-on-5 in all situations, score adjusted, and close score are 55.5/54.5/52.0, respectively.  Compare those numbers to their comparable overall numbers for the season: 54.5/54.8/53.2.

Where they have had problems is just in good old fashioned shooting.  While their overall shooting percentage was 14.0 percent in their first seven games, when they scored 29 goals on 207 shots (4.14 goals per game), they are shooting just 6.9 percent in their last nine games (20 goals on 291 shots).  If anything, their scoring defense has been better in the 5-3-1 stretch, allowing just 19 goals on 234 shots (8.1 percent/2.11 goals per game), compared to their opening seven game span when they allowed 18 goals on 169 shots (10.7 percent/2.57 goals per game).

You would have to think the pendulum will swing back once more at some point with respect to shooting efficiency.  It would be nice if that would happen against the Red Wings, who are having some troubles on offense of their own.  Going into Tuesday’s games, the Wings were 25th in the league in scoring offense (2.28 goals per game) and have only 13 goals in seven games in November (11 in regulation).  All four of their wins this month (a 4-3-0 record) have been by one goal, and they do not have a win of three or more goals this season since Opening Night in a 4-0 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs.  The only win Detroit has this month against a team that has won more than half the games they have played this season was their 1-0 win over the Caps last week.

The Red Wings have had similar shooting efficiency problems to those the Caps have had recently.  In November, the Red Wings have just 13 goals on 190 shots (6.8 percent).  Only once – their 4-3 overtime win over Ottawa on Monday – have they recorded more than two goals.  Fortunately, their defense has been pretty good, although there is an uneven aspect to it.  They allowed just one goal in each of their first two games this month, both 2-1 wins over Tampa Bay and in overtime over Toronto, respectively, but since then they have allowed three or more goals in four of five games.  Only their shutout of the Caps interrupted that streak.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Tomas Tatar is Detroit’s leading scorer in November (2-3-5).  He would be a player to watch if this game goes to overtime.  He had points on both overtime game-winning goals this month for the Red Wings, earning a secondary assist on Jakub Kindl’s game-winner in a 2-1 win over Toronto, and scoring the game-winner himself in overtime of the Red Wings’ 4-3 win over Ottawa on Monday.

2.  Mike “Mr. Helping Helper” Green has assists on four of the 13 goals scored by the Wings this month to lead the team.  He is still looking for that first goal as a Red Wing, though.  The odd part of that is, of the six defensemen for the Wings to have appeared in 12 or more games so far, he and Nicklas Kronwall (71 goals in 674 career games coming into this season) are the only ones without a goal.

3.  The Wings, if not prolific on offense in November, are balanced.  Five different players have two goals this month – Riley Sheahan, Tomas Tatar, Dylan Larkin, Gustav Nyquist, and Andreas Athanasiou. 

4.  Detroit’s special teams have struggled this month.  Their special teams index (power play plus penalty killing percentages) of 93.8 is a level that will not sustain winning on a long-term basis.  The problem is more the power play (10.5 percent) than the penalty kill (83.3 percent).  Perhaps it is one of those streaky things.  After all, the Red Wings closed October with six power play goals on 20 opportunities (30.0 percent) over the last five games of the month.

5.  The Red Wings have a streak of five games in which they were on the good side of 50 percent in the possession numbers.  Their Corsi-for percentages overall, score adjusted, and in close score situations over those five games of 56.1/55.9/53.6, respectively, are quite…respectable (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  In this nine-game offensive drought, the Caps are led in total scoring by Alex Ovechkin and Justin Williams with seven points apiece.  Both players have five-game points streaks as a part of their production, although Ovechkin is on a three-game slide without a point.

2.  Ovechkin, as you might expect, leads the Caps in goals over this nine-game span (3), but he does not have one in his last three contests.  What is noteworthy is that the Caps have a similar profile to that of the Wings in their recent offensive slump.  Six other Capitals have two goals apiece – Evgeny Kuznetsov, Justin Williams, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, Jay Beagle, and Jason Chimera.

3.  Williams leads with five assists over the last nine games, while three other Caps have four apiece – Karl Alzner, Kuznetsov, and Ovechkin.

4.  Heading into his 16th game of the season, Alex Ovechkin is looking for his second power play goal.  By his 15th game last season he had four power play goals on his way to 25.  The year before, it was seven on his way to 24.  In 2012-2013 it was four on his way to 16 in an abbreviated 48-game season.  See an outlier among the pattern?

5. Of the 17 players with more than 100 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time so far this season for Washington, only four have Corsi-for percentages under 51 percent – Brooks Orpik (49.8), Jay Beagle (49.3), Jason Chimera (48.9), and Tom Wilson (47.0; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Detroit: Henrik Zetterberg

It is hard to believe that Henrik Zetterberg is now in his 13th season in the NHL.  It has been a season of milestones for him so far this season.  In a 5-3 win over the Ottawa Senators on Hallowe’en, he recorded two assists, the first his 500th helper of his career and the second being his 800th career point.  A week later he scored a goal in Detroit’s 2-1 overtime win over the Toronto Maple Leafs, his 300th NHL goal.  It was also his last goal to date.  Zetterberg is without a point in his last five games, reflecting the fact that despite the milestones reached, this is not the fastest of starts for the 35-year old forward.  His current goals-per-game pace (0.22/game) matches the lowest of his career, set last season.  His points per game, while still at a very productive level (0.83/game) is the lowest since his sophomore season in 2003-2004 (0.70).  He certainly has missed the presence of Pavel Datsyuk in the lineup (he only recently returned to the lineup and has played in three games this season), and he is still performing at a high level, but time might be slowly inching up on him to tap him on the shoulder, too.  In 15 career games against Washington, Zetterberg is 5-6-11, minus-1.

Washington: Tom Wilson

Is notice being taken with respect to Tom Wilson's style of play?  Since Wilson’s 2013-2014 rookie season, only 22 players in the league have more hits, and only four players have more penalty minutes.  Only Cody McLeod has both more hits (461 to 446) and more penalty minutes (356 to 344) than Wilson in that time.  McLeod has about 70 more total minutes of ice time over that span than Wilson.  But now, it seems Wilson’s style is getting attention off the ice.  In his weekly “30 Thoughts” feature, Elliotte Friedman wrote this:

“The NHL’s Player Safety Department met with several repeat offenders in an attempt to reign them in. One was Zac Rinaldo, who escaped suspension a week earlier for hitting Sean Couturier, much to the department’s chagrin. While in Arizona during camp, Chris Pronger spoke with Steve Downie and John Scott. New Jersey’s Jordin Tootoo was offered the opportunity after being fined for a dangerous trip. Now on the radar? Washington’s Tom Wilson. Several teams have complained about his hits. As of yet, no meeting. But it’s been requested.”

While it is difficult to put Wilson in the same category at Rinaldo or Downie, there can be no argument that Wilson employs an enthusiastic physical style.  While it would be helpful to know the nature of the complaints against Wilson and the degree to which they differ in description from the sorts of antics employed by Downie or Rinaldo, Wilson might be a man under the microscope for the time being.  He does not have a point and is a minus-1 in seven career games against the Red Wings.

In the end…

The Caps are 5-3-1 in their last nine games, and given that the offense has been missing a beat here and there, it is not that bad a record.  The defense and goaltending have been very good in the meantime.  Allowing 19 goals in nine games and just 25 shots per game over that span are fine numbers, indeed.  Of the two, the defensive numbers might be the more sustainable over time.  Certainly, Caps fans hope so, and given the offensive talent and depth on this team, the mini-funk they are in would be expected to have a short shelf life.  They do not really get a break against the Red Wings, who have been stingy in their end of the ice in recent games as well.  It might make for a boring game for those wanting more fireworks, but a win is a win, whether it is of the 7-4 variety that the Caps pinned on Edmonton or…

Capitals 2 – Red Wings 1

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 5

The winning week string came to an end for the Washington Capitals in Week 5.  It was less a systemic problem that led to the result as it was something individuals and teams go through over the course of a long season – a slump.

Record: 1-1-1

At least it was not a losing week, standings points wise. The Caps still have yet to have a losing week since Week 25 (the penultimate week) last season.  They failed to win consecutive games on the road, dropping a 1-0 decision in Detroit and offsetting that with a 5-2 win in Philadelphia.  It was their second straight split of a two-game road trip since sweeping their three-game western Canada trip in October.  The disappointment was the home game in the Week 5 schedule, a 3-2 overtime loss to the team that was, at the time, the worst team in the Western Conference, the Calgary Flames.  What made that loss harder to swallow was that the Caps were one of the better home teams in the East.  As it was, they finished the week with the third best home record in the Eastern Conference (6-2-1).

Offense:  2.33/game (season: 3.06/game; rank: 4th)

Did someone say, “slump?” Here is where the Caps came up short this week.  Sure, they pounded the woeful Flyers, 5-2, in the middle game of the week, but the Flyers’ defense is, to be charitable, a work in progress, and their goalie was making his first appearance after a ten-day absence.  In the other games, the Caps were shutout by a “1-A” goalie (a good one, but not a consistent number one performer in Detroit’s Petr Mrazek) and had to scramble to score a pair of late goals against a lower-tier goalie, Calgary’s Karri Ramo.

The scoring at an individual level reflected the offensive slump. The seven goals were spread among six different players.  The one Capital with two goals was grind-liner Jason Chimera (both against the Flyers).  He was not the only one who lit the lamp.  Jay Beagle and Michael Latta has goals in Week 5.  Tom Wilson had a pair of assists.  Brooks Laich had a helper, and so on.  Among the scoring liners, T.J. Oshie, Justin Williams, and Nicklas Backstrom had goals; Evgeny Kuznetsov had a pair of assists. 

The meaningful number as far as the offense went is “zero.”  Alex Ovechkin did not record a point.  It was not for lack of trying.  He had 15 shots on goal against the Red Wings without finding the back of the net, the first time in almost half a century a player recorded that many shots on goal without scoring.  He had 20 shots on goal for the week and 28 shot attempts without recording a point in his continuing pursuit of the NHL record for goals scored by a Russian-born player.  He remains tied with Sergei Fedorov at 483 goals.

Defense: 2.00/game (season: 2.31/game ; rank: T-7th)

The Caps started the week having allowed the fewest shots on goal per game in the league and finished the week second in that regard after allowing 76 shots on goal in three games.  It is part of a long string of games that point to an identity for this team.  The Caps have played 14 consecutive games without allowing a team more than 30 shots on goal.  Only Columbus during that streak – in the seventh game of this streak – reached the 30 shot mark.

This is a team that is establishing itself as a solid, perhaps elite possession team.  They finished the week third in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (54.4), largely on having the second-best Corsi-against per 60 minutes (47.1/60, second to New Jersey’s 45.5/60).  This could be a product of the notion that the best defense is a good offense, but however you slice it, the Caps are quite stingy in allowing opponents offensive opportunities.  The odd part about possession for Week 5, though, was the close-score situation numbers at 5-on-5.  They dominated, as one might have expected, the possession numbers against Philadelphia (57.4 Corsi-for percent) and Calgary (52.5).  However, the Detroit game represented their third-worst performance of the season in this area (40.0; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Goaltending: 1.99 /.921 (season: 2.12 / .915)

Week 5 was a very good week in net.  It would have been even better if Calgary had not scored on their second shot of overtime to take away a 3-2 win.  Not that Philipp Grubauer had a bad game in spelling Braden Holtby in the second of a back-to-back set of games.  He did not.  In fact, he was the victim of some uncharacteristically iffy play in front of him, the Flames scoring their two goals in regulation from between the faceoff circles, prime real estate for scorers.

As for Holtby, he had another solid week.  His 18 saves on 20 shots against the Flyers was a solid, if unspectacular effort, but his performance against Detroit was a fine one, save for one moment.  He allowed his only goal in that game on a shot from just outside the goal line extended from his right by Andreas Athanasiou, the only goal he allowed on 27 shots.  It was almost a year to the day since he dropped the other 1-0 regulation time decision of his career, at home to the New Jersey Devils on November 14, 2014.  That one also featured an iffy third period goal, when his attempted pass from behind his own net was put right onto the stick of Mike Cammalleri, who one-timed it in for the game’s only goal.

Power Play: 2-for-8 / 25.0 percent (season: 22.4 percent; rank: 7th)

It was an efficient week, especially when you account for one big hole, but one was left wondering if it was sustainable.  The Caps recorded two goals on 18 shots in 12:40 of power play ice time (1.42 shots per minute).  Of those numbers, Alex Ovechkin was 0-for-9 shooting in 10:58 of power play time.  He had eight of those power play shots (of the 11 total) against Detroit in the 1-0 loss on Tuesday.

At the other end of the efficiency divide was Jason Chimera, who recorded two power play goals on three power play shots in 2:03 of ice time.  He was inserted into the middle of the 1-3-1 to get more energy and activity in front of the opposition goalie.

Ovechkin taking a donut for the week (he has one power play goal this season), Jason Chimera as many power play goals as he had over his previous four seasons combined.  Going 2-for-8 is nice, but it might not be the way this team goes about getting there consistently on a week-to-week basis.

Penalty Killing: 6-7 / 85.7 percent (season: 84.8 percent; rank: 7th)

The most effective penalty kill is the penalty you don’t have to kill.  Week 5 was another example of this for the Caps.  The Caps’ four-week string of progressively fewer shorthanded situations faced ended in Week 5 with facing seven (after facing six in Week 4), but it is still a fine number.  The Caps have faced the fourth-fewest shorthanded situations in the league to date (46 in 16 games), and even with the one goal allowed have yielded the second fewest power play goals in the league (7 – Anaheim has allowed 6).

Even the goal was a bit of bad luck, a shot by the Flyers’ Claude Giroux hitting the far post and caroming in against Braden Holtby in the Caps’ 5-2 win.  It was an otherwise efficient week, the Caps allowing only seven shots in 11:25 of shorthanded ice time (0.61 shots per minute).

Even Strength 5-on-5 Goals for/Goals Against: 4-4 / even (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.28; rank: 6th)

It was a low scoring week overall and no less so than at even and full strength.  This is where the scoring line players for the Caps made a mark.  T.J. Oshie and Nicklas Backstom scored their goals for the week at 5-on-5, both in the 5-2 win against the Flyers.  But there was also the input from the bottom six.  Justin Williams, skating on a line with Jay Beagle and Jason Chimera, scored against the Flyers.  Beagle got one of his own against Calgary, the game-tying goal to send the game to overtime as it turned out , and Michael Latta scored the first goal for the Caps against the Flames. For Latta it was his first goal of the season and his first since recording his first NHL goal in a 4-3 win at Detroit on November 15, 2013.

Faceoffs: 85-for-165 / 51.5 percent (season: 50.5% / rank: 13th)

There is better than 50 percent, and there is better than 50 percent…but.  For the Caps in Week 5, the latter was operative.  Overall, the Caps finished at 51.5 percent for the week, but that was the product of a 64.9 percent winning percentage in the neutral zone.  They were under 45 percent in the ends – 44.2 percent in the offensive zone and 44.6 percent in the defensive zone.  It was just as problematic on an individual level.  Eight Caps took more than ten draws for the week and of the eight scoring zone results among them, only Jay Beagle’s 62.5 percent (10-for-16) in the defensive zone was over 50 percent.  Beagle did finish the week at 50 percent or better in all three zones, but Nicklas Backstrom had a rough week.  His offensive/defensive zone performance of 26.9 percent (7-for-26 combined) was one he might like to forget.

Goals by Period:

The Caps won the late show for the week, outscoring opponents by a 3-2 margin in both the second and third periods.  However, one of those third period goals was the only goal scored in the 1-0 loss in Detroit, and there was that overtime goal that was the margin in the 3-2 loss to Calgary.  In that respect, the Caps had an uncharacteristically unpleasant late-game performance for the week.  The Caps are still a plus-4 in the second periods of games for the season and a plus-7 in the third periods of games.

In the end…

Maybe Week 5 was spent paying too much attention to getting a teammate a record.  Alex Ovechkin did not set that record for career goals by a Russian-born player, and the team didn’t make up for the absence of his contributions at the offensive end.  Perhaps it says something about the team that despite a lot of fair-to-poor results among individual players and the team as a whole on offense, they still managed to squeak through with a .500 week in standings points.  If there is one thing being a dominant possession team can do for you, it is keep you in games when the pucks aren’t going in.  That (the Detroit game aside) is what allowed the Caps to limit the damage to a win and two one-goal losses.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Karl Alzner (22.53 average ice time, 0-1-1, plus-2, 3 hits, 8 blocked shots, 1 goals against on-ice at 5-on-5)
• Second Star: Braden Holtby (1-1-0, 1.52, .936)
• Third Star: Jason Chimera (2-1-3, 3 hits)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 16: Flames at Capitals, November 13th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return home from their two-game road trip to Detroit and Philadelphia to take on the Calgary Flames at Verizon Center on Friday night.  In an odd twist of the schedule, the Flames are the first team that the Caps will be facing for a second time this season.  Washington won the first meeting in Calgary by a 6-2 margin on October 20th.

For the Capitals, not a lot has changed since that first meeting.  They were 3-1-0 before taking on the Flames the first time, and since that win they are 6-3-0 going into their game against Philadelphia on Thursday night.  The goal scorers in that game – Nicklas Backsrom (2), Alex Ovechkin, Jason Chimera, Andre Burakovsky, and T.J. Oshie – represent the top-end and secondary scoring of a sort the Caps need to be successful.

What the Caps have not had, though, is just that, at least on a consistent basis.  Since his two-goal game against Calgary, Backstrom has two goals in his last nine games.  Chimera has one in his last night games, none in his last eight since scoring against the Flames.  Burakovsky has one goal in nine games since recording one in Calgary.  T.J. Oshie also has one goal in his last nine contests since getting one against the Flames.  Of that group, Alex Ovechkin is the only player who has maintained a somewhat consistent goal scoring pace since Calgary, getting four in his last nine games (all results are before the Caps’ game in Philadelphia on Thursday night).

Meanwhile, the Flames are showing some signs of coming out of a slow start.  After dropping nine of their first 11 decisions to open the season (2-8-1), the Flames are 3-2-0 in their last five contests going into their game against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Thursday night.

In those five games, the Flames outscored their opponents by a 18-17 margin, three of the decisions coming by one goal (a win, a loss, and a win in overtime).  The Flames are led in scoring over this five-game stretch by Michael Frolik (3-3-6), who had a hat trick in the Flames’ 5-4 win over the Edmonton Oilers that kicked off this five-game run.  That hat trick was a quite odd occurrence for Frolik.  It was the only game in which he has scored a goal this season.  It was his first multi-goal game since Opening Night of the 2013-2014 season (also against Edmonton), and it was the first hat trick of his eight-year career.  He has had some success against the Caps, going 6-7-13, minus-5, in 22 career games against Washington.

Johnny Gaudreau also has three goals in this 3-2-0 stretch for Calgary. Two of them came in a 5-2 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on November 7th.  With four goals in 16 games, Gaudreau is a bit behind his goal scoring pace of last year (24 in 80 games), but with a 4-13-17 scoring line in 16 games he is well ahead of his rookie season points pace (24-40-64 in 80 games).  It might not come as much surprise that Gaudreau is officially the lightest of 685 players to have dressed for an NHL team this season at 157 pounds.  This will be his fourth game facing the Caps, and he is 0-2-2, even in his first three career games against them.

Mark Giordano leads the Calgary defense in goals (4) and is tied with Dennis Wideman in points (6), but he has just one point (a goal) in the last five games.  In fact, since recording two goals (including the game-winner) and an assist in a 3-2 overtime win against the Detroit Red Wings on October 23rd, Giordano has only two points in his last nine contests.  He is 2-3-5, plus-1, in seven career games against Washington.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1. It’s not that Calgary gives up a ton of shots per game in allowing so many goals; they are 18th overall in shots allowed (30.1).  It is that their save percentage is so poor -- .873.  That would be poor by 1980’s standards.

2.  Calgary is not especially good at the little things, either, at least as far as taking faceoffs is concerned.  Their 48.2 percent winning percentage is 28th in the league.

3.  If the Flames score first, they would seem to have a fighting chance.  They are 4-4-1 when getting the first goal.  If they don’t, well… They are 1-7-0 when allowing the first goal of a game.

4.  As one might expect, when the Flames lose, they don’t make it suspenseful.  Their seven losses by three or more goals is worst in the league.

5. Calgary’s 5-on-5 possession numbers are not bad overall – 48.7 percent Corsi-for at 5-on-5.  And it does not get appreciably worse in close score situations – 48.0, 23rd in the league.  It seems to come back to their goaltending (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  For those who aren’t concerned about 15 games being too early to draw historical comparisons, the Caps are on a pace to finish with 120 standings points.  Compare that to the 2009-2010 franchise record-setting team that finished with 121 poiints.

2.  That 2009-2010 team was just 8-3-4 after 15 games.

3.  The 2009-2010 team allowed 3.06 goals per game through 15 games; this team is allowing just 2.27 goals per game.

4.  By this time in 2009-2010 the Caps already had two losing streaks of at least three games.  This team has yet to lose consecutive games.

5.  The 2009-2010 team had a penalty kill of just 78.6 percent through 15 games and allowed 70 power play chances.  This team is at 84.1 percent and has allowed only 44 chances, fifth-fewest in the league.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Calgary: Karri Ramo

Goaltender Karri Ramo has had an interesting season thus far.  He was pulled in the second period of the 6-2 loss to the Caps last month, was waived the following day, cleared waivers and was sent to Stockton in the AHL the next day, then was recalled by the Flames on October 29th.  Since then he has appeared in five games – all five games of this 3-2-0 run for the Flames – and has not really been the reason the Flames have a winning record in their last five contests.  Over those games he has a 3.21 goals against average and a .891 save percentage.  Ramo got the start last night against Tampa Bay; we'll see if he gets the nod tonight.  He is 1-5-2, 3.40, .897 in nine career appearances against the Caps.

Washington: Nate Schmidt

You are a 24-year old defenseman trying to climb your way into a regular spot in the lineup after two seasons of part-time play split with the AHL club.  You appeared in nine games so far this season, going into last night's game, and in all but one you have a Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 of 50 percent or better.  Seven times you were over 55 percent; five times you were at 60 percent or better.  There isn’t a single defenseman in the league with more than 100 5-on-5 minutes played with a better Corsi-for at fives.  Going into Thursday’s games you are the only one over 60 percent for the season (60.1).  Sure, you are getting third pair minutes with all that entails, but your team is 6-3-0 when you are in the lineup.  You are hardly a liability.  You are Nate Schmidt, and you are having a quiet coming out party in the early going this season.  In three career games against Calgary, Schmidt is 0-1-1, minus-2.

In the end…

So, Calgary is 3-2-0 after a ghastly start to the season, but their wins are against Edmonton, Philadelphia, and at home against Pittsburgh on a night when the Penguins were playing the back half of a back-to-back set of games.  Their losses were at Colorado and at Florida.  It hasn’t exactly been a Murderer’s Row the Flames faced.  They are moving up a couple of weight classes against a club that wants to re-establish momentum.”  And, the Caps are much deeper and skilled, well, everywhere.  A 6-2 decision might not be in the offing, but the Caps will be able to see it from the result of this game.

Capitals 5 – Flames 2