Washington Capitals: Half and Half - Comparing Seasons at the Half-Way Mark, Part II

In Part I of our look at the Washington Capitals’ first half of the 2017-2018 season compared to last season’s first half, we looked at team factors.  Now, the returning skaters.

The Returning Skater Ensemble

Sixteen players from the club that skated in the first 41 games last season have appeared in the first 41 games for the Caps this season.  What is noteworthy about them as a group is the manner in which they stepped up their collective performance.  Last year, this group of 16 combined for 527 man-games played in the first half.  That number is slightly higher this time around, the group combining for 542 man-games played.  The injuries sustained by Matt Niskanen (a drop of 13 games from last year to this) and Andre Burakovsky (38 to 19) have been offset by increases in games played on the part of Brett Connolly (up five), Jakub Vrana (up 28) and, perhaps surprisingly, Taylor Chorney (up 15).

While the games played haven’t changed all that much, the production has.  The 16 returning players have 22 more goals as a group (106) than they had at the half-way point last season (84).  And while it might be tempting to say it is Alex Ovechkin picking up his pace, that would explain only a part of the increase.  Ovechkin is up five goals from a comparable point last season (from 21 to 26 through 41 games), in terms of numbers and percentage increase, look to Evgeny Kuznetsov (up from 5 to 12) and Jakub Vrana (from two in 12 games in last season’s first half to 10 in 40 games so far this season).  And there are Tom Wilson (up from 2 to 6) and Dmitry Orlov (from 2 to 5).

Part of the improvement is efficiency.  As a group, the returning skaters are shooting at almost precisely the rate at which they shot last season (1.81 shots per man-game in both years), but this year they are shooting at 10.8 percent versus 8.8 percent at this point last season.

The odd thing if you look one level lower is that the forwards and defensemen have improved their goal scoring by roughly the same amounts, percentage-wise, the forwards going from 74 goals at this point last year to 93 (up 25.7 percent), while the defensemen are up from 10 to 13 (up 30 percent).

Both groups have contributed to the improvement in overall shooting efficiency.  The forwards are shooting marginally more often (up from 1.85 shots per man-game to 1.91) but have improved their shooting percentage from 11.3 to 13.2 percent.  Meanwhile, defensemen are shooting a bit less often (from 1.75 shots per man-game to 1.61), but their shooting percentage is up as well, from 3.3 to 4.7 percent.

Ah, but there is a flip side to that forward/defenseman break out: plus-minus.  The returning forwards were a plus-71 in the first half last season but only plus-25 as a group so far this season (minus-46 differential).  It is almost as bad on defense, which as a group (five returnees) is plus-23 after being plus-52 at this point last season.

The Individuals
(click on image for larger version)

Nicklas Backstrom

Nicklas Backstrom, while still a very productive element of this team, seems a bit, well…”off” so far this season.  There was the long stretch without a goal (21 games) that is the big donut hole in his season so far, but he is still off from last year’s numbers in just about every statistical category from last year’s half-season mark.  This is despite his getting a little more than an additional minute of ice time per game this season compared to last year at this point. He has been a recipent of more ice time, averaging more than a minute more (19:32) in the first half than he did in last season's first half (18:21).  That he is getting a bit more ice time on the power play (3:38 per game versus 3:09 at this point last season) while seeing his power play numbers drop a bit (2-10-12 versus 3-13-16 last season) is something to note.

Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin continues to mow down opponents and milestones.  With 26 goals so far he has jumped from 26^th to 20^th place on the all-time list of goal scorers, and his 43 points has enabled him to jump almost ten spots into 63^rd place all time in points.  It is the seventh time in 13 seasons that he topped 25 goals at the half-way mark, and more to the point of comparison with last season, he is five ahead of last year’s 21-goal total.  He has done it be being more efficient, his 14.4 percent shooting percentage being 1.5 points higher than where he was at this point last season.  Those improved numbers have not come on the power play, where his seven goals is one off his 2016-2017 pace (eight).  He has 19 even strength goals this season compared to 13 at this point last season.  One other number of note, he is one of a minority on this club with a better plus-minus this season (plua-12) over last (plus-5).

Evgeny Kuznetsov

Evgeny Kuznetsov did not have a good first half last season, part of what would be a large dropoff in points from the 2015-2016 season.  But he has come back with a strong first half this season, more than doubling his goal output in the first half from last season (from five to 12) and increasing his point total by 11 (from 28 to 39).  The odd part is his being a merely “even” player in plus-minus after going plus-13 in the first half last season.  Then again, his power play scoring being up significantly (up three goals and up six in assists), that plus-minus is easier to explain.  He is also getting more ice time, as it seems the top-six is in general, Kuznetsov up almost two full minutes per game over this point last season.

T.J. Oshie

Would you believe T.J. Oshie has played more games in the first half this season (35) than he did in the first half last season (33)?  His production is roughly equivalent to what he had in the first half last season, but like Kuznetsov, his plus-minus has plummeted (from plus-18 to minus-2).  It is another case of his power play production being a bit better, meaning his even strength has suffered by a roughly equivalent degree.  His average ice time is up, too, almost a minute and a half over last season.

Jay Beagle

Last year would become a career year for Beagle, so comparisons carry with them the faint air of unfairness.  And, being a player now in his 30’s, continued improvement on his part might be a stretch.  That said, he has dropped off a bit in goals and points from a similar point last season.  Known as a superior faceoff performer, he has largely maintained a high efficiency level there, even if he is a bit down from last season (from 59.5 percent to 58.3 percent). He has almost doubled his takeaways (7 to 15), cut his giveaways almost in half (from 13 to 7), and he has more credited hits (from 28 to 42). On the other hand, you could look at those numbers and think, “those are ‘not having the puck’ numbers.”

Andre Burakovsky

This is not a first half that has much use for Andre Burakovsky except as a learning tool – how to deal with and respond to adversity.  He has played only half the games (19) that he played in the first half last season (38).  His goals/assists/points are similarly reduced (from 5-10-15 to 3-5-8).  His plus-minus is down (plus-2 to minus-3), while his penalty minutes are up (10 to 18).  What has not changed is his ice time, when he has been available (13:44 per game last season, 13:44 this season).

Lars Eller

Eller has improved his numbers over last year’s first half.  Playing in 40 games in each season’s first half, he has lifted his goal scoring a bit (4 to 5), but his assists have jumped quite a bit (from 4 to 12).  Otherwise, his numbers look very similar to last year’s first half, except he is getting more ice time, about a minute more per game (from 14:04 to 15:14).  Hit blocked shots are up (from 12 to 27), perhaps (again) a reflection the larger possession issues the Caps have, and his giveaways are up (from 16 to 27).

Brett Connolly

Connolly, as he was in last year’s first half, was more a finisher than a set-up player.  His goals are up some (from 5 to 8), and his assists are as well (from 1 to 3), but they have moved in tandem.  Connolly’s ice time has increased some, a product of more power play responsibility (0:40 last season to 1:27 so far this season).  The odd stat for him is a somewhat more scattershot shooting performance.  At this point last season he had six missed shots to 33 shots on goal, while this season it is 18 misses and 25 shots on goal, which makes that 32.0 shooting percentage (8 goals on 25 shots) stand out.

Tom Wilson

Tom Wilson, despite playing in four fewer games in the first half of this season (37) than he did last season (all 41 games), has made considerable strides to shed the notion of his being merely a thumper and an agitator.  He is averaging almost three full minutes more per game – some of it as a first line player – and is making an impression with the opportunity.  With six goals and 12 assists so far, to go with a plus-10, the relevant comparison might not to be to the first half of last season (2-2-4, plus-6), but to his full year totals (7-12-19, plus-9).  In fact, he is already within striking distance of career highs in all of the points categories (he was 7-16-23 in 2015-2016).  He has doubled his shooting efficiency from last season from 5.3 to 11.5 percent.  It has not kept him from maintaining a certain edge, his hits (108 this year versus 99 in the first half last year), blocked shots (15 versus 17), and takeaways (22 versus 20) at roughly the same level.  The one element that seems to have returned is taking penalties.  His 98 PIMs is almost three times the level he had at this point last season (38).

Jakub Vrana

With these eyes, we watch Jakub Vrana and see “Peter Bondra,” a smooth, fast skater with a finisher’s touch.  If one looks at Bondra’s goal totals in his first two seasons (12 in 54 games in his rookie year and 28 in 71 games in the following season), then the improvement of Vrana in first half this season (10 goals in 40 games) compared to last season (two goals in 12 games) makes some sense.  Vrana has also refined his shooting to become more efficient, at least in the early going.  His 12.7 percent this season is more than three points better than where he was at this point last season (9.5 percent).  It is also showing up in his ice time, up by almost two minutes per game from last year (11:45 in the first half) to 13:24 so far this season.

Liam O’Brien

There not a lot to say about Liam O’Brien, whose exposure to the NHL has been short and infrequent.  He has appeared in three games this season after dressing for one last season, but he did not record a point in any of those games.  If he can develop further at Hershey, he might be a serviceable depth forward who can fill a spot in a pinch, but at the moment it is hard to see how he cracks this lineup this season.

John Carlson

John Carlson is having a fine year on the offensive side of the ledger.  He reached the half-way point of the Caps’ season as the second-leading scorer among defensemen in the league (31 points), trailing only Dallas’ John Klingberg (35).  On the other hand, he was the only defenseman among the top seven scorers with a “minus” on his stat line (minus-3, although to be fair, eight of the top 14 blueline scorers were minus players).  He has improved his performance numbers almost across the board from the first half last year, up in assists (19 to 27), points (24 to 31), power play goals )1 to 2), power play assists (9 to 11), power play points (10 to 13), and shots on goal (104 to 118), all in playing 41 games, as he did last season.  The big jump, though, is in ice time, where he is three minutes (at 26:20 a game, fifth in the league) over last year’s average at the half-way point (23:20).

Dmitry Orlov

The big difference in Dmitry Orlov from last season’s first half to this, is as much responsibility as numbers.  He skated more than four minutes more per game in this year’s first half (23:17) than he did in last year’s first half (19:12).  Based on minutes for other defensemen, he looks to be getting a lot of what were Karl Alzner’s minutes from last season, especially on the penalty kill, where he is averaging 2:18 per game compared to 0:01 last season.  With the added minutes his goal scoring is up (from 2 to 5), as is his shooting percentage (from 3.1 to 6.8).  It is not a uniform increase in his numbers, though.  While dressing in 41 games in the first half in both seasons, he is down in assists (from 17 to 8), points (19 to 13), plus-minus (from plus-15 to plus-9), and power play assists and points (from 3 to 1 in both).  At the other end, he does have more hits (68 to 64) and blocked shots (from 50 to 61), and that might be a reflection of the broader possession issues the Caps have this season.

Matt Niskanen

Matt Niskanen appeared in 40 of the Caps’ first 41 games last season, but this season has been marred by injury, limiting him to 27 games in the first half.  Still, he has three goals in those 27 games compared to just one in 40 last season, and he is a plus-14 (best on the team), compared to plus-11 last season.  The rest of his numbers have suffered with the absences, his assists down (from 16 to 8), points (from 18 to 11), his power play scoring line (from 1-1-2 to no points this season), and his shots on goal (from 78 to 50).  There has been a subtle shift in Niskanen’s responsibilities as reflected in ice time.  While his average ice time in total has not changed much (22:28 last year compared to 22:13 this season), his even strength time is up (from 17:33 to 19:11), while his special teams time is down (1:44 to 0:46 on the power play, 2:56 to 2:30 on the penalty kill).

Brooks Orpik

For Brooks Orpik, it is 41 games in last year’s first half and 41 this year.  The offensive numbers remain modest – no goals (none last year at this point), six assists (nine last year), and six points (nine last year).  That plus-minus number, though.  He was plus-16 at this point last season but is just minus-6 through the first half this season.  The biggest changes are in the numbers one might associate more with Orpik.  His credited hits are up almost a third (from 94 to 120), and his blocked shots are up more than half (from 59 to 94).  Part of it might reflect an increase in ice time of more than three minutes per game (from 17:31 to 20:56, split among even strength, from 14:50 to 17:51, and penalty killing, from 2:39 to 3:02), but there is that broader issue of possession that might be at play with Orpik as well.

Taylor Chorney

Last season, Taylor Chorney was the seventh defenseman, getting only eight games in the first half.  This season he has been pressed into more service as a product of departures and injuries, dressing for 23 games so far.  His are also modest performance numbers, and they are about the same on a per game basis (1-1-2, plus-3 in eight games last season, 1-3-4, plus-8 in 23 games this season).  He is taking a bit of a lighter load in terms of ice time when he does get in, his average dropping slightly from 13:17 to 12:57.

In the end…

The returning group has played in more games, scored more goals, posted more power play goals, shot more efficiently, and posted more points than they did as a group through the first half of last season. 

On the other hand, their credited hits and blocked shots are up significantly as a group.  Perhaps not surprisingly, given this profile, as a group they are just plus-48 this season compared to plus-123 last year at this point.  That so many of the group are playing more minutes per game reflects more responsibility (e.g., Tom Wilson and Dmitry Orlov) as a result of departures, and replacements coming in to fill in those lesser roles.  That’s the group to which we turn next.

Washington Capitals: Half and Half - Comparing Seasons at the Half-Way Mark, Part I

Last Tuesday, the Washington Capitals played their 41^st game of the schedule and reached the half-way point of their 2017-2018 season.  They finished the first half at the top of the Metropolitan Division, a place that a lot of Caps fans might have thought would be out of reach this season after last season’s Presidents Trophy-winning campaign.  It begs the question, just how does this team compare to last year’s at the half-way mark?  We have a series of pieces to explore just that question.  In Part I, team factors.

Record

The good news here is that the Caps are on a pace to finish with 106 points, which would be the seventh-most standings points earned in a full season in franchise history and the fourth straight season in which they would top the 100-point mark.  At the moment, the New York Rangers, Chicago Blackhawks, and Anaheim Ducks are the only other teams in a position to make it four straight 100-point seasons, and none of them are currently on a pace to do so.

The bad news is that whereas last season the Caps were able to squeeze out points in close games (two more wins, two more extra time losses earning points), those games – well, four of them – were regulation losses.  Drilling into the one-goal games in that margin, last year’s Caps were 12-3-5 in one-goal games at the 41-game mark, half of those wins settled in extra time.  The difference this season is one fewer win in one-goal games (11-2-3), but even those wins have been tighter in that eight of them were won in extra time.  At the other end of the goal-differential spectrum, this year’s Caps team is about as likely to get blown out as blow out other teams, posting a 9-8 record in games decided by three or more goals.  Compare that to last year’s squad that was 10-4 in such games at the half-way mark.

Still, this year’s club stands at the top of the Metro, which was not the case last season, when the Caps were second in the division behind the Columbus Blue Jackets.  This year’s Caps do not hold quite as high a league ranking as last year, due in large part to the Metropolitan Division teams cannibalizing one another in what is shaping up to be a very close race, top to bottom, down the stretch.

Record-wise, this year’s team is not far off last year’s pace, but it is playing closer to the margin.  It would not take much for it to tumble off their current perch at the top of the Metropolitan Division if their luck in close games changes just slightly, given how often they have settled things in extra time.

Team Scoring

At the highest level – goals for and against – there is one surprise and one expected outcome.  Losing Justin Williams, Marcus Johansson, and Daniel Winnik (32 goals among them at the 41-game mark last season) from last year’s team might be expected to result in a drop in goal scoring.  However, the Caps are actually scoring at a slightly higher pace (3.05 goals per game) than they did at the same point last season (2.90).

It is on the other side that things are of a more expected nature.  Losing the experience and skill of Karl Alzner, Nate Schmidt, and Kevin Shattenkirk (who did not play for the Caps in the first half last season), it would be reasonable to expect that the defensemen replacing those players would, at the very least, need time become acclimated to the team and the NHL pace.  Not even a world-class goaltender such as Braden Holtby would be able to plug all the holes such a turn of events would open.  And, he hasn’t.  The Caps are allowing almost than three-fourths of a goal per game more this season (2.83) than they did last season (2.10), when they had one of the best team defenses in the league.

Things follow a similar pattern on special teams.  This year’s Caps team is actually a bit better at the half-way point on the power play (19.2 percent) than they were at this point last season (18.0 percent), although the seasons look remarkably similar in goals and opportunities, with one exception.  Those shorthanded goals against.  With five in 41 games, they are on a pace to allow ten this season.  It is not an unheard of number – it would be the six time in the last 13 full seasons (not including the abbreviated 2012-2013 season) that the Caps allowed double digits in this category.  Compare it to last season, when over the course of all 82 games the Caps allowed only three shorthanded goals, their lowest number over the same span of seasons.

It is on the penalty kill where things, perhaps expectedly, have deteriorated somewhat.  Despite facing fewer shorthanded situations this season to date (142) than last season at this point (149), the Caps have allowed 33 percent more power play goals (28 versus 21 last season) and have seen their penalty killing efficiency drop by almost six point (from 85.3 percent to 80.3 percent).

There has been an interesting development in shooting patterns.  Washington is averaging more than a shot and a half fewer shots on goal per game (28.8) this season from last (30.4).  The company line is, “we look at the quality of shots.”  and based purely on outcomes – higher shooting percentage, more goals, then at least coincidentally the “quality” line and results are consistent.  The Caps have ticked up their shooting percentage a full point from last season (from 9.6 to 10.6 percent), and as noted, their goals per game are up (from 2.90 to 3.05).  Sustainable?  That’s what the second half of the season is for.

Grittership

“Grittership” is a term we use as a catch all for a number of statistical categories that generally reflecvt the harder or less glamourous aspects of play that people count – hits, blocked shots, penalties, faceoffs, turnovers for and against.  There are several numbers that jump out here, and most are not good.  The good is the faceoff number, the Caps being one percentage point better on wins (51.3 percent) than they were at this point last season (50.3 percent).  If you think attention to detail in one are makes for good performance in others, you will see this as a good thing.  If you think, “meh, faceoffs don’t matter much in the larger scheme of things,” you will go, “meh…” 

Other numbers are faint indicators of other problems.  Take, for instance, penalty minutes.  The Caps have 421 penalty minutes this season, up 62 minutes (think of it as a full game’s worth or more than 17 percent higher) from last season through 41 games (359).  That it hasn’t translated into more penalty killing situations is a product of what kinds of penalties are up – majors (from 5 to 11) and other penalties, (misconducts, bench penalties, etc.; also up from 5 to 11).  Still, the added minutes affect continuity and the management of lines and line changes.

Then there are the credited hits and blocked shots.  The thinking goes that if you are hitting a puck carrier or blocking a puck shooter, the key is that it is the other guy that has the puck.  Tough to score that way.  In both hits and blocked shots, the Caps have more this year than last, up 10.2 percent in hits (840 to 926) and up 13.1 percent in blocked shots (from 533 to 603) year over year to date.

They have not made up for this with a better turnover ratio, either.  Many of these grittership numbers are credited from the eye of the beholder – what “looks” like a hit or a takeaway within their interpretation of the definition – but that aside, the takeaway-to-giveaway ration dropped from 0.76 to 0.62 this season, a 14 percentage point drop.  It is possible that the eyes on the ice are more strict about such things this season, but it is both giveaways that increase and takeaways that drop.  Those are not good visuals.

Miscellaneous

Looking at goals by strength is an interesting.  The Caps are up at even strength from last season, from 93 to 98.  Not a large increase, but a welcome one.  On the other hand, two thirds of the increase in total goals (ok, it’s just four of six) is attributable to an increase in empty-net goals, from five at this point last season to nine through 41 games this season.  They all count, though, and it is a further matter of interest that there are seven Caps with empty net goals.  That Alex Ovechkin and Jay Beagle each have a pair to lead the team is a study in how a first liner and a fourth liner can get involved in the late action.

A weird fact (or scoring interpretation) about shots is how the Caps have done so poorly in redirecting shots into the net this season over last.  Looking at deflections and tips, the Caps shot 23-for-81 through 41 games last season (28.4 percent) but just 11-for-62 (17.7 percent) so far this season (shot statistics from NHL.com).  Fewer chances, less efficient.  Perhaps this is a place where the absences of Marcus Johansson and Justin Williams are being felt.

On the other hand, the Caps have been charged with fewer missed shots this season (480 versus 522 at similar points, last season and this).  Almost all of the 42 shot difference is a product of fewer shots sailing wide (40).  They have blacksmithed the net more often, though, hitting the crossbar or post 30 times so far this season compared to 23 times at this point last season.

In the end…

At the team level, the first half of this season for the Caps does not look a lot different from last season, wins and losses-wise.  However, the further you drill down into the numbers, the less impressive that looks, and in fact hints at possible trouble ahead.  They are playing their games closer to the margin than last season, have more of a mixed success in close games this season, and their possession numbers are uninspiring.

It is not the sort of club that seems able to peel off a long winning streak or sustained stretch of successful play.  As the Caps set forth on the second half of their season, remember that last year’s edition started the second half 17-4-2 in their first 23 games of the second half with winning streaks of eight and six games in that run to propel them to a 28-10-3 second half.  This year’s club had two winning streaks of four games in the first half (although they could match that on Sunday against the St. Louis Blues).  Does this club have another gear?  Will those holes be filled in and their youngsters develop enough in time to secure a postseason spot and go deep in the second season?  We will see.

A TWO-Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 41: Capitals 5 - Hurricanes 4 (OT)

The Washington Capitals closed the first half of their 2017-2018 season on a high note, defeating the Carolina Hurricanes, 5-4, in overtime on Tuesday night in Raleigh.  It was the Caps’ third straight win and broke a three-game losing streak on the road.

The Caps fell behind early when John Carlson served up a turnover on a plate to Victor Rask between the hash marks that Rask immediately converted into his ninth goal of the season, beating goalie Braden Holtby on the blocker side 5:21 into the game.

Barely a minute later, the Caps had the equalizer.  Chandler Stephenson picked off a centering feed in front of his own net and turned up ice.  Skating down the left side, he had the puck poked off his stick at the Carolina blue line but recovered it and fed it in front to Alex Chiasson skating down the middle.  Chiasson redirected the puck past goalie Cam Ward, and it was 1-1, 6:39 into the period.

Six minutes later the Caps took their first lead of the game.  Brooks Orpik sent a long pass out of his own end to Jay Beagle at the Hurricanes’ blue line.  Beagle tapped it back to Devante Smith-Pelly entering the zone, and Smith-Pelly stepped up to fire a shot from the right wing faceoff circle that beat Ward on the long side to make it 2-1 at the 12:53 mark.

The Caps extended their lead mid-way through the second period on a fine individual effort from Dmitry Orlov.  Skating the puck out of his own end, Orlov carried it into the Carolina end and fired a shot that went wide to Ward’s right.  The puck caromed hard off the end board and back across the goal line where Orlov followed it up to smack a shot from a difficult angle past Ward 8:48 into the period.

Rask scored his second of the game on a power play to make it 3-2 at the 11:15 mark, taking a feed from Justin Williams in the high slot and rifling a shot past Holtby.  The Hurricanes took the lead on goals less than two minutes apart early in the third period, Elias Lindholm coverting a pass from Derek Ryan from between the hash marks to tie the game 5:40 into the period and Teuvo Teravainen giving Carolina their first, and only lead of the night, getting credit for giving the Canes the lead when a bouncing puck off his shot hit Holtby’s skate and trickled into the net at the 7:04 mark.

Alex Ovechkin tied the game 12:45 into the third period when Jaccob Slavin failed to clear a loose puck from the left wing wall in his own end, Nicklas Backstrom picked it up and fed Ovechkin in the faceoff circle, and Ovechkin circled in to backhand the puck past Ward’s blocker.

That would be how the teams went to overtime, and the extra period ended early.  The final play started with Sebatian Aho ringing a shot off the post behind Holtby, the puck caroming out to Nicklas Backstrom.  From his own blue line, Backstrom fed Ovechkin who turned up ice.  Skating up the right side, Ovechkin carried the puck into the Carolina zone, faked a slap shot that froze Slavin, and then wristed a shot past a screened Ward to give the Caps the 5-4 win.

Other stuff…

-- Three Carolina goals came directly off turnovers from defensemen – from John Carlson on the first Victor Rask goal, from Taylor Chorney on the Elias Lindholm goal, and from Madison Bowey on the Teuvo Teravainen goal.

-- This was Alex Ovechkin’s fourth multi-goal game of the season and first since November 25^th in a 4-2 win in Toronto over the Maple Leafs.  He scored on both of the shots on goal with which he was credited.

-- It was Ovechkin’s first multi-goal game this season that was not a hat trick.

-- With his first goal, Ovechkin became the fourth player in NHL history to record 25 or more goals in his first 13 seasons, joining Mike Gartner, Wayne Gretzky, and Jaromir Jagr.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had a pair of assists for his eighth multi-point game of the season.  He has had four of them at home and four of them on the road.

-- The Caps allowed 38 shots on goal.  It was the 11^th time this season that Braden Holtby faced at least 35 shots on goal.  Only three goaltenders have faced 35 or more shots more often: New Jersey’s Cory Schneider (12), Nashville’s Pekka Rinne (12), and Toronto’s Frederik Andersen (14).

-- Carolina was 1-for-4 on the power play.  It was the 12^th time in 20 road games that the Caps allowed at least one power play goal.  Last night ended a two-game streak without allowing one that tied their high for the season.

-- John Carlson skated 30:51 last night, the first time this season that he topped the 30 minute mark in ice time.  It was the first time a Capital topped 30 minutes in a game since Matt Niskanen skated 32:04 in a 5-4 Gimmick loss to Columbus one year ago to the day before Carlson did it.

-- Did you have Devante Smith-Pelly leading the team in shots on goal?  He did, with five.

-- Carolina curb-stomped the Caps in shot attempts, 72-46 (61.02 percent).  It was only marginally better at 5-on-5, where the Hurricanes had a 49-36 edge (57.65 percent, numbers from Corsica.hockey).

In the end…

It is not often one can say that the goalie was the key in a 5-4 game, but three giveaways by Capitals defensemen deep in their own end led directly to three Carolina goals.  At least it wasn’t one defensemen, the errors made by three different perpetrators (team…do things as a team).  When you add to that the fact that the Caps really took their foot off the pedal after scoring their second goal (they actually led in total shot attempts mid-way through the first period but were dominated thereafter), it put a premium on Holtby not allowing anything soft.  He didn’t; he needed more disciplined play in front of him.

All that said, the Caps still won and extended their lead over the New Jersey Devils in the Metropolitan Division (the Devils lost in a Gimmick to the St. Louis Blues but picked up a point).  Those two points will come in handy this week as the Caps are off until Sunday against the Blues, and the rest of the division catches up on the schedule.  It is entirely possible that the Caps will be tied in standings points with their two closest pursuers in the division on Sunday as the Devils are two points back and have one game this week, while Columbus is four back and plays twice.  What is tight could get tighter. That’s why the points matter.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 41: Capitals at Hurricanes, January 2nd

The Peerless’ Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Happy New Year, Caps fans, welcome to 2018, a year that is still a blank slate, full of promise and hope.  The Caps begin the 2018 portion of their quest to win a championship with a visit to an old adversary, the Carolina Hurricanes, a team with which they will renew acquaintances three times in the space of ten days starting with Tuesday night’s game in Raleigh.

Washington will be looking to snap a three-game losing streak on the road (0-1-2) against a team that has not lost on home ice since the day after Thanksgiving.  Since that 5-4 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Hurricanes are 6-0-0 at PNC Arena, the only team in the league to go undefeated on home ice in games since November 24^th.

In that six-game home winning streak, 11 different skaters have shared the 17 goals scored (2.83 per game team average).  Sebastian Aho leads that group with four goals, two of them game-winners.  Aho is building off a solid rookie season in 2016-2017 (24-25-49) in which he finished third among all rookies in goals and fifth in points.  With 11 goals in 38 games overall, he is on a pace to match last year’s 24 goal total, while his 29 points puts him on a pace to finish with 63 points.  Aho brings a four-game points streak overall into this game (4-2-6, plus-2).  According to the Hurricanes media guide, his nicknames are “Seabass” (Sebastian…”seabass”…okay) or “Fish” (Aho…ahi?).  Okay...clever.  He has been a thorn in the side of the Caps in his brief career, going 2-4-6, plus-1, in four career games against Washington.

Former Capital and second-tour Hurricane Justin Williams has not been among the leaders in scoring in the Hurricanes’ home winning streak, but he is among the overall team leaders in points this season (24/fourth).  Williams, who left the Caps this past off-season to sign a two-year/$9 million contract with the Hurricanes, is on a pace to finish with more points this season (52) than he did with the Caps last season (48).  What seems unlikely is that he will continue the three years of improvement in goal scoring (18-22-24) that he began with Los Angeles in 2014-2015 and carried over into his two years in Washington.  With seven goals in 38 games so far, he is on a pace to finish this season with 15 goals.  On December 23^rd, Williams became the 52^nd player in team history to dress for 300 games in a Carolina jersey and now stands 50^th in total games played for the franchise (303).  Williams comes into this game in a bit of a dry stretch, recording only one assist in his last six games overall and without a goal in his last seven contests.  He is 14-20-34, plus-11, in 43 career games against the Capitals.

Cam Ward has almost every meaningful goaltending record in the history of the franchise dating back to the Hartford Whaler days.  He has appeared in more than twice as many games (639, fifth among all active goaltenders) as second place Arturs Irbe (309), won twice as many games (305, fifth among active goalies) as Irbe (130), and has 25 shutouts (to 20 for Irbe).  His goals against average (2.69) ranks third among franchise goalies with at least 100 appearances, trailing Kevin Weekes (2.41 in 119 games) and Irbe (2.49), while his save percentage (.909) trails only Weekes (.912). 

This season, if he has not quite enjoyed a renaissance, Ward has returned to a more respectable level of performance than he had the last five seasons in the pure act of stopping pucks.  His .917 save percentage is his best since he finished the 2010-2011 season with a .923 save percentage (perhaps not coincidentally, the last season in which he received votes for the Vezina Trophy, finishing seventh).  The odd part of his season is the workload.  He has 14 appearances so far this season with a 10-2-1 record (one no-decision).  Perhaps the result of the team signing Scott Darling to a 4-year/$16.6 million contract (Darling is 8-11-0, 2.88, .896 in 25 games), but Ward is making a case for more work.  In 39 career games against Washington, Ward is 17-16-5, 2.68, .914, with four shutouts.

1.  On Carolina’s 2017 report card it might say, “works and plays well with others.”  They have the fewest penalty minutes per game in the league (6:07),m fewest total penalties (108, 20 fewer than Columbus through December 31^st), and fewest major penalties (three, tied with Vegas).

2.  As a result of their ability to avoid penalties, the Hurricanes are the only team in the NHL to have faced fewer than 100 shorthanded situations (94).  They have spent just 157:18 killing penalties, the lowest amount of shorthanded ice time in the league.  And watch out in the third period.  Carolina’s special teams time difference of plus-34:44 ( 62:15 in power play time, 27:31 in penalty killing time) is tops in the league.

3.  The Hurricanes do not win blowouts.  Their three wins by three or more goals is fewer than any other team except Arizona (2) and Buffalo (none).

4.  Carolina has out-shot opponents a whopping 29 times in 38 games so far this season.  Only St. Louis has out-shot opponent more often (41 times).  Not that it matters to the Hurricanes that much, since they won barely half of those 29 games (15-9-5).

5.  Boil this down to one thing for the Caps…score first.  No team has fewer wins when allowing the first goal in games this season than Carolina (three, tied with three other teams).

1.  As the old year ends, some odd facts… The Capitals had 26 different players record at least one goal in calendar year 2017, from “Alzner” to “Winnik.”  The NHL being a turnover sort of league, it’s not all that surprising that neither player is still with the team.

2.  Three Capitals played in all 87 regular season games in 2017 – Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, and Dmitry Orlov.  It will not escape the careful reader that all are Russian.  Not indicative of anything, just interesting.

3.  Oh, and 87 regular season games in 2017.  Is there nothing that will not remind this franchise of "that team?"

4.  Consider…Braden Holtby logged 3777:23 in ice time in 66 regular season games in calendar year 2017.  The combined running time of “Game of Thrones” is 3778 minutes in 67 episodes.  Hmm…

5.  Ten rookies dressed for the Capitals in 2017: Jakub Vrana (48 games/12-7-19, plus-6), Chandler Stephenson (32/2-7-9, plus-6), Christian Djoos (31/3-5-8, plus-8), Madison Bowey (32/0-8-8, minus-2), Zach Sanford (6/2-0-2, plus-1), Nathan Walker (7/1-0-1, plus-1), Garrett Mitchell, one game, no points), Liam O’Brien (four games, no points), Riley Barber (three games, no points), and Travis Boyd (two games, no points).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Carolina: Teuvo Teravainen

In the run-up to the 2012 entry draft, Teuvo Teravainen was thought to be among the most skilled skaters available.  He was “a player with outstanding hockey sense and great overall skill (NHL Director of European Scouting Goran Stubb)”…”smooth, intelligent with great two-way efforts. He has a great one timer but can also really find his teammates well from the perimeter and off the rush. A very dynamic threat at all times (ISS Hockey’s Ross MacLean)”… and “an impressive skater with a great first few steps who can get to a dangerous top speed that puts defenders on their heels, while also showing the ability to change gears quickly, and is very elusive from a standstill (Hockey Prospectus).”   So what happened?

Taken by the Chicago Blackhawks with the 18^th overall pick in the 2012 entry draft (note: the Caps passed up taking him with the 16^th pick in favor of Tom Wilson), he spent parts of three seasons in Chicago before becoming more valuable as a trading asset than as a young prospect.  In June 2016, after posting 17 goals and 44 points in 115 games with the Blackhawks, he was traded  to Carolina with Bryan Bickell for a second round pick  in 2016 entry draft and a third round pick in 2017 entry draft.  He has been more productive in Carolina, but not as much as his scouting reports might have suggested he would be, recording 24 goals and 71 points in 119 games with the ‘Canes.  Perhaps he is turning a corner, though, as he is tied for the team lead in points (29, with Aho), and he is 1-3-4 in his last four games going into the new year.  In six career games against the Caps, Teravainen is 2-5-7, even.

Washington: Jakub Vrana

In the history of the Capitals franchise, seven players finished their rookie campaigns with 20 or more goals.  Jakub Vrana has a chance to become the eighth and only the second since the 2004-2005 lockout.  In 39 of the 40 games completed so far, Vrana is half-way there with ten goals, the 36^th rookie in club history to record at least that many as a rookie.  Even if 20 goals ends up being beyond his reach, he seems certain to finish with more goals as a rookie in the post 2004-2005 lockout era than all but Alex Ovechkin (52 in 2005-2006), surpassing Nicklas Backstrom (14 in 2007-2008) for the runner-up spot.   

Vrana will need to pick up his pace, though.  He is without a goal in his last seven games, and his 10:38 in ice time in the Caps’ last game, a 5-2 win over the New Jersey Devils ( a game in which he did not record a shot attempt), was his third-lowest ice time of the season.  Perhaps he, like many young players, is hitting a bit of a wall as the season reaches its half-way point.  This is one of those things that a player has to learn to manage, to find a way to motivate himself to push through the long winter nights on the way to spring.  How successful he is at that could be the difference between joining the “20-goal” rookies in club history and falling short.  Vrana does not have a point in his only appearance to date against the Hurricanes.

In the end…

When the season started, one might have thought that the Caps would be a team dancing on the edge of playoff eligibility this season and that the Hurricanes would be perhaps a season away from being a serious postseason contender.  As it turns out, both the Caps and the Hurricanes are teams that fall into the “better than expected” category.  Complicating things is the nature of the division in which the two teams play, with still just 11 points separating the top team in the Metropolitan Division (Washington with 51 points) and last place (Philadelphia: 40 points).  Carolina is that team dancing on the edge of playoff eligibility, and even this far out from the end of the season it makes for a dangerous team.  What makes this perhaps a more dangerous game for the Caps is the welcome dose of home cooking the Hurricanes will have.  Only Toronto has played fewer games on home ice so far (16) than Carolina (17). 

The Caps had better get used to seeing these guys, since they will meet them three times – this game and a home-and-home/back-to-back set of games in the second week of January.  Those will be the only Metropolitan Division games that the Caps play in the first two weeks of the new year, so what better way to start the year than putting the upstart Hurricanes in their place as the Caps complete the first half of the regular season?

Capitals 4 – Hurricanes 3

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 13

With Week 13 for the Washington Capitals in the books, the Caps brought down the curtain on the 2017 portion of their 2017-2018 season.  It was an odd week, an historic week, and ultimately a successful week that left the Caps at the top of the Metropolitan Division as the year comes to a close.

Record: 2-0-1

Say what you will about the Caps’ shortcomings – they have bad possession numbers, they aren’t as deep as last season, etc. – but they grind out points.  Week 13 was their tenth consecutive week at .500 or better in standings points earned of standings points available, and they are 20-9-2 over that span.  It was just the third week in 13 in which they did not lose a game in regulation, but it was the eighth time that they recorded at least two wins in a week. 

The odd part of the week for the Caps was in their first game, a 1-0 Gimmick loss to the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden.  The teams played 65 minutes without a goal being scored, leaving things to the Gimmick.  The Rangers won in the freestyle phase, the second time in the Gimmick era that the Caps played to a 0-0 tie after 65 minutes.  They lost their other instance, that to the Tampa Bay Lightning in the season finale of the 2013-2014 season.

The Caps would go to extra time in their following contest, a 4-3 trick shot win over the Boston Bruins that was their fifth extra time game in six contests, an odd occurrence in itself, given that the Caps had played extra time in five of their first 33 games.

Washington would not need extra time to defeat the New Jersey Devils, 5-2, to end the week and tie the Tampa Bay Lightning for the most home wins this season (16).  It also left the Caps with a 6-3-1 record against the Metropolitan Division to end the year. On an individual level, it was Barry Trotz' 737th win as an NHL head coach, breaking a tie with Lindy Ruff for fifth-place on the all-time coaches' win rankings.

Offense: 2.67 /game (season: 3.00 /game, rank: T-11th)

It was not a big week for the Caps on the offensive side of things, but they did spread it around.  Eight goals scored, eight different players scoring them.  And even there it was good balance among centers (Nicklas Backstrom, Lars Eller), wingers (Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson, Brett Connolly), and defensemen (John Carlson, Matt Niskanen, Christian Djoos).  Eleven different players finished the week with points, Ovechkin (1-3-4) and Carlson (1-3-4) leading the group with four points apiece.

Djoos’ two-point week lifted him in the scoring rankings among rookie defensemen.  His third goal of the season placed him in a tie for third place in goal scoring among that group, and adding an assist for the week put him in a tie for fifth in points among rookie defenseman (eight).  He shares that ranking with teammate Madison Bowey, making the Caps the only team in the league with two rookie defensemen among the top five in points.  Djoos is also fifth in that group in plus-minus (plus-8).

Tom Wilson’s two-point week (1-1-2) gave him six goals for the season, one within his career high, and left him sixth on the team in points (6-12-18), a reflection of his continued improvement and assumption of more responsibility.  His plus-11 is second-best on the team (Matt Niskanen: plus-15).

Multi-point games were the noteworthy item in the week’s last game, the 5-2 win over the Devils.  Alex Ovechkin (0-3-3), John Carlson (1-2-3), and Nicklas Backstrom (1-2-3) finished with three-points against New Jersey.  It was the second time this season that the Caps had three players with three-point games (Backstrom, Ovechkin, and Tom Wilson in a 6-2 win over the Chicago Blackhawks on December 6th).  Christian Djoos’ goal and an assist gave the Caps four players with multi-point games against New Jersey, tying their season high in players with two or more points. One of those times was against the Devils, in a 5-2 win on October 13th.

Defense: 1.67 / game (season: 2.80 /game, rank: 13th)

At the end of October, the Caps had allowed the sixth-most number of shot attempts at 5-on-5.  That number has not improved with time, and Week 13 was an example.  The Caps allowed 139 shot attempts at 5-on-5 for the week, third-most in the league, leaving them having allowed the fourth-highest number of 5-on-5 shot attempts this season.  The silver lining here is that the Caps did not deteriorate through the week, allowing 49 5-on-5 shot attempts to the Rangers, 40 to the Boston Bruins, and 50 to the New Jersey Devils, and their SAT percentages improved through the week – 46.74 against New York, 48.72 against Boston, and 52.83 against New Jersey. 

If there was a bright spot it was in finishing the week on a strong note.  In their first seven regulation periods of hockey for the week, the Caps allowed opponents 79 shots, an average of 33.86 shots per 60 minutes.  However, in the last two periods of the week against the Devils, the Caps allowed a total of just 15 shots, closing out a game in a fashion that the Caps need more of as the season enters its second half.

Goaltending: 1.58 / .949 / 1 shutout (season: 2.65 / .915 / 1 shutout)

Last season, Philipp Grubauer was perhaps the best backup goalie in the league.  This season, he might be the league’s most hard luck netminder.  No game reflected his season to date more clearly than the opening game of the week when he stopped all 37 shots he faced in the hockey portion of the contest, many of them of the highlight reel sort, before succumbing in the Gimmick against the Rangers, 1-0.  It was the first shutout by a Capitals goaltender this season.  After a slow start, Grubauer has stopped 220 of the last 235 shots he has faced (.936 save percentage), but he has just a 2-3-2 record (two no-decisions, appearances in which he stopped all 23 shots he faced) to show for it.

Braden Holtby took the ice for the last two games of the week and was solid, stopping 56 of 61 shots (.918 save percentage) and finishing the week second in the league in wins (22; Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy has 24).  That Holtby would allow three goals in one game and two in the other he played is part of an odd pattern he has had for the past five weeks.  In his last 14 appearances dating back to November 22^nd he has allowed no fewer than two and no more than three goals in any (that includes three goals on 12 shots in 21 minutes in a loss to the New York Islanders).

Power Play: 2-for-8 / 25.0 percent (season: 19.5 percent, rank: T-13th)

The Caps finished the week with power play goals in consecutive games for the first time since putting together a three-game streak in Games 27-29 in early December.  They ended the week with a power play goal on two opportunities against the Devils.  It marked the fifth straight game in which the Caps had two or fewer power play opportunities that they squeaked out standings points (3-0-2).

The usual subjects had the goals (Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson) and the points (those two plus Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom), and overall the power play was efficient at getting shots to the net.  In 14:40 of power play ice time, the Caps managed 16 shots on goal.  It was a welcome rebound from a weak Week 12 in which the Caps were 0-for-9, their worst week of the season to date.

Penalty Killing: 10-for-10 / 100.0 percent (season: 80.4 percent, rank: T-19th)

The Caps skated off all ten shorthanded situations they faced in Week 13, the most situations disposed of without allowing a goal since they went 11-for-11 in Week 6.  It was a return to form after a pair of weeks in which the PK struggled (16-for-21/76.2 percent).  The Caps were reasonably efficient in killing those penalties overall, allowing just 16 shots on goal in 18:25 of shorthanded ice time, but they did have to withstand 12 power play shots by the Bruins in the middle game of the week in 10 minutes of shorthanded ice time. 

The five power play chances the Bruins had posed a danger.  In 10 previous games in which the Caps allowed five or more power play chances to an opponent, they had a record of 3-6-1, and only one of those wins was in regulation (oddly enough, against the Bruins in a 5-3 win on December 14^th).  That the Caps would need the Gimmick to settle things last Thursday against Boston should have been no surprise in this context.

Faceoffs: 80-for-174 / 46.0 percent (season: 51.4 percent, rank: 8th)

It was not a very good week in the circle for the Caps.  They were owned by the Rangers in the first game of the week (19-for-51/37.3 percent) and were not much better against Boston in the middle game of the week (30-for-67/44.8 percent).  It took at 31-for-56 effort against New Jersey (55.4 percent) to get them to something resembling respectability for Week 13.  The Caps did do a credible job in the defensive zone for the week, winning 33 of 62 draws (53.2 percent), but that was offset by a woeful 23-for-60 performance in the offensive zone (38.3 percent).

On an individual level, the frustration was a shared affair.  Three of the four Caps taking at least ten draws were underwater for the week: Nicklas Backstrom (21-for-53/39.6 percent), Lars Eller (15-for-37/40.5 percent), and Evgeny Kuznetsov (14-for-29/48.3 percent).  Jay Beagle was dependable as usual, going 24-for-43 (55.8 percent).

Goals by Period:

Balance was the key for the Caps this week.  Although the volume wasn’t high, and they did get shutout against the Rangers to open the week, scoring two, three, and three goals in the regulation periods over the last two games showed at least a consistency of effort.

The odd part of the week was avoiding being taken advantage in the middle, long-change period.  The Caps did not allow a second period goal over the course of a week for the first time this season.  It allowed the team to climb to “even” in goal differential in the second periods of games this season, giving them even or positive goal differentials in all three regulation periods so far.

In the end…

Sometimes, what one sees on the ice, the numbers, and the results do not seem to be aligned.  Week 13 was one of those weeks.  That the Caps finished the week with a 2-0-1 record was a welcome result, but in the eye-test, they looked out of sync against the Rangers (no doubt a function, at least in part, of playing on what might have been the worst ice surface of the season), couldn’t seem to quite put away the Bruins, but then skated and passed with flair against the Devils to close the week. 

The results and the numbers, at least the possession numbers, hinted that there are things still amiss, but here we invoke the “all other things equal” clause.  All other things equal, shot attempts are a reasonably reliable indicator of success over a series of games.  But all other things are rarely equal, and perhaps superior skill will offset those weak possession numbers, even over a series of games.  That seems to have been the case for the Caps in the 2017 portion of the season, where possession numbers are weak, but they still have Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, T.J. Oshie, and Evgeny Kuznetsov, among others, who are among the most skilled players in the game.  Whether the Caps can improve their possession numbers in 2018 or keep the dogs at bay with their skill set if they can’t improve those numbers will be one of the story lines to watch in the year about to unfold.

Three Stars:

• First Star: John Carlson (1-3-4, plus-1, 1 PPG, 1 GWG, 8 shots on goal, 26:37 average ice time)
• Second Star: Christian Djoos (1-1-2, plus-3, 6 shots on goal, 12:57 average ice time)
• Third Star: Philipp Grubauer (0-0-1, 0.00, 1.000 save percentage, one shutout, one hard-luck loss)