Off Day: The Cousins Look Back on Game 3

Game 3 was the sort of game for the Washington Capitals for which tapes should be burned and logs erased.  The 5-0 loss to the Carolina Hurricanes was perhaps the worst overall effort by the club since sustaining a similarly underwhelming 5-0 loss to the New York Rangers in Game 7 of their Eastern Conference quarterfinal game in 2013.  The cousins were unhappy with the result then, and they are unhappy with last night's outcome that should serve as a wake-up call for the defending champs.

Peerless: Where does this rank in playoff game efforts for the Caps?

Fearless: I’m not sure this one ranks “top-five” in worst evers.  There was that 5-0 loss to the Rangers in 2013.  The 2-0 Game 7 loss to Pittsburgh in Game 7 in 2017. The 3-0 loss to the Penguins in Game 7 in 1995.  The…

Cheerless:  We get the point.

Fearless: And those were shutouts in Games 7 of a series.  The point is that the Caps have come up flatter in more desperate situations when you would think effort would be at a maximum.  That is not to excuse what happened last night.  In some respects it was a “top-five” poor effort.  The big thing was the shots on goal.  The Caps harp a lot on “quality over quantity” when it comes to such things, but Petr Mrazek is a goalie who has faced more than 30 shots in a postseason game only three times in his career, including Game 2 of this series, and he lost two of them.  But in the four games before last night in which he played the full contest and faced fewer than 20 shots, he had a shutout and allowed one goal in another.  The Caps had a record of 8-14 before last night in games in which they recorded fewer than 20 shots.  It is no surprise that they lost.

Cheerless:  It might not have been the weakest effort ever, but one shot in 40:20 of ice time from the first period to the third period?  The Caps had five shots on goal in the last minute of the third period.  Without those, they would have had 13 shots on goal, the second-lowest shot total for a Caps team in playoff history (they had 11 shots on goal in Game 4 of their conference semifinal against Ottawa in 1998 – the Caps won that game, 2-0).  And, the silence was loud.  As Peerless pointed out last night, “five Caps did not have a shot attempt – Nick Jensen, Jakub Vrana, Chandler Stephenson, Lars Eller, and Nic Dowd.  Four others – Matt Niskanen, Christian Djoos, T.J. Oshie, and Brett Connolly – had one shot attempt.”  The flip side of that is that three players – Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and John Carlson – accounted for ten of the 18 shots and 23 of the 43 shot attempts.  Shoot, the Caps had more hits (34) than shot attempts (33).

Peerless: The fight.  Alex Ovechkin and Andrei Svechnikov squared off in the first period.  They had been going at one another with love taps for much of the period, and then Svechnikov appeared to be the one who asked for the escalation in hostilities.  Sometimes fights have an inspirational effect.  Did it?

Feerless:  I don’t think…

Cheerless: How come he always gets to go first?  He’s always…

Feerless: Perhaps because it takes you a half hour to form a coherent sentence.

Cheerless: Oh, yeah?

Feerless: Good comeback.

Cheerless: Why you…. You wanna go?

Feerless: Any time…

Peerless: OK, guys. Thanks for the dinner theater version of “How a Hockey Fight Starts.”  Can we get back on track?  You go first, Cheerless.

Cheerless: I forgot what I was gonna say… Oh, yeah… Well, it did, just not the way the Caps would have liked.  This was a pretty typical Caps road game until the fight, almost 11 minutes into the period.  They were down a goal, but the shot attempts were even, and folks always say that on the road, try to keep things close early, and don’t let the fans into the game.  In the last nine minutes of the period after the fight, Carolina out-shot the Caps, 7-2, and out-attempted them, 11-6.  Carolina didn’t score over the remainder of the period, but they did have momentum that the Caps seemed to have in the first five minutes.  They did not give it back.

Fearless: I think it certainly did, but in a subtle way.  Cheerless almost got there with his mention of momentum.  The turning point might have been less than two minutes after the fight when Jordan Staal was sent off on an interference penalty.  One of, if not their best penalty killer, off the ice in a one-goal game, it might have been a chance for the Caps to build off Ovechkin winning the fight.  But the Caps’ top power play scorer was in the box as a result of the fight, and the power play looked awful, a couple of shots from defensemen and a couple of misses.  And it was Carolina who grabbed the momentum thereafter.

Peerless: To which we can segue into the special teams.  Washington scored on their first two power plays of this series, back in the first period of Game 1.  They have been shut out on ten power play chances since.  After facing it for seven games, four in the regular season and three in the postseason, has Carolina figured out the Caps’ power play? If they have, what can Washington do about it?

Fearless:  It is hard to say.  Since they scored two goals those first two power plays, the Caps have no goals on 15 shots on eight power plays.  They have four of those shots from Alex Ovechkin, four from John Carlson, two each from Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie, and Matt Niskanen.  Lars Eller has the other.  So, while one might quibble over whether it matters that Evgeny Kuznetsov does not have a power play shot on goal over those last eight power plays (any, in fact, in this series), the Caps have spread things around fairly well in terms of shooters.  But it just looks slow, or at least slower than when it is clicking.  Passes are made neither timely nor crisply.  Is that system, or is it execution?  Perhaps it is opportunity.  Through three games in the first round last season, Washington was 6-for-17 against Columbus (35.3 percent).  They are 2-for-12 through three games in this series (16.7 percent).

Cheerless: I ain’t an “x’s and o’s” guy...

Fearless: I thought those were the only two letters of the alphabet you knew…

Cheerless: haw-haw…fuh-nee.  As I was saying, I ain’t an “x’s and o’s” guy, but maybe the Caps are just stale.  But here is a weird fact.  Petr Mrazek played in his first postseason game in 2015.  In five postseasons starting with that one, Mrazek is second in save percentage against power plays among 23 goalies having played in at least ten games (.923).  Only Cam Talbot has been better (.926).  The thing with him is, though, when he has been bad, he has been awful.  It just has not happened often.  In 14 postseason games played, Mrazek has been perfect facing power plays 11 times.  The other three times he allowed a total of six power play goals on 16 shots.  He has been something of a home cooking guy defending power plays.  He allowed three goals on ten shots in a 2016 postseason game against Tampa Bay, but in five other playoff games he played on home ice, including Monday’s game against the Caps, he has keep the net empty, stopping a total of 23 shots in those five games.  The Caps haven’t lacked much for chances, their 12 power plays tied with St. Louis for seventh-most among the 16 playoff teams.  But more opportunities couldn’t hurt, if only to make Mrazek work more for his success.  And that means forcing play more than they did against Carolina on Monday, where the Hurricanes dictated pace and flow.

In the end…

Let us not make too much of one game.  Yes, it stunk on toast.  It was the biggest negative goal differential for the Caps in a playoff game (minus-5) since that 5-0 loss to the Rangers in Game 7 in 2013, the only times in the Ovechkin era that the Caps were as bad as minus-5 in a playoff game goal differential.  But it was one game.  What the Caps could do without is the drama of Game 3 – the fight, the Canes getting sucking it up even while short two forwards, the dead power play – and just play a nice, boring, put ‘em to sleep road game in Game 4.  It was a key for the Caps in tying a league record for postseason wins on the road last year (ten).  Do that, and they will return to Washington in a position to end the series.

Eastern Conference Quarterfinal - Game 3: Hurricanes 5 - Capitals 0

The Washington Capitals embarked on the road portion of their opening round series against the Carolina Hurricanes on Monday night.  It was among the stranger and uglier games in Capitals postseason history, the Caps dropping a 5-0 decision to leave Washington with a two-games-to-one lead in the series.

First Period

The Caps dominated early, but Carolina took their first lead of the series mid-way through the period.  It was a self-inflicted wound that started when Christian Djoos took a pass from Brooks Orpik in the faceoff circle to the right of goalie Braden Holtby and promptly coughed it up to Warren Foegele.  The puck slid off Foegele’s stick behind the Caps’ net where Brock McGinn scooped it up.  McGinn sent the puck to the right point where Justin Faulk one-timed a shot to the Caps’ net.  The puck struck Foegele, who was battling for position with Djoos.  The puck popped up and over Holtby, dropping behind him and over the goal line before Djoos could scoop it out, and the Hurricanes were up, 1-0, 9:43 into the period.

Things got interesting about a minute later when Alex Ovechkin and Andrei Svechnikov squared off.  Ovechkin made short work of Svechnikov, landing three right hands and sending the rookie to the ice.  Svechnikov was on the ice for some time and was clearly woozy from the scuffle.  The Caps would suffer from Ovechkin’s absence when they were awarded the game’s first power play.  The Caps did get shots from Matt Niskanen and John Carlson, but they failed to convert.  Carolina did likewise with their lone power play chance late in the period, and the teams skated off to the first intermission with the Hurricanes on top, 1-0.

-- Carolina outshot Washington, 15-9, and out-attempted them, 24-19.

-- Ovechkin had three shots on goal to lead all Caps, and his five shot attempts led all skaters for both teams.

-- Tom Wilson led all players with three credited hits.

Second Period

It was Carolina’s turn to dominate early, and they had the Caps back on their heels for the first six minutes.  The Hurricanes capitalized on the pressure they exerted when Foegele scored his second goal of the game.  Teivo Teravainen took advantage of two Capitals – Dmitry Orlov and Brett Connolly – stepping up on him just inside the Caps’ blue line, and as both Orlov and Connolly fell to the ice, he fed the puck across the ice to Sebastian Aho in the left wing circle.  As Matt Niskanen slid on his stomach to try and prevent an Aho shot, Aho fed Foegele all alone at the doorstep to put the puck home at the 6:09 mark to make it 2-0, Carolina.

Less than six minutes later, with Nicklas Backstrom in the penalty box, Carolina scored a power play goal to extend their lead further.  From the left point, Jaccob Slavin fed Jordan Stall in the high slot.  Stall slid the puck back to Dougie Hamilton, who leaned into one and sent the puck under the crossbar at the 11:40 mark to make it 3-0.  The Caps avoided further damage, but the damage at this point might have been sufficient.

-- Washington did not record their first shot on goal until the 15:13 mark of the period, 23:04 of ice time between shots on goal going back to the first period.

-- Carolina outshot the Caps, 18-1, in the period and out-attempted them, 25-9.

-- Ovechkin was the only Capital with more than one shot on goal through 40 minutes (four).

Third Period

Things did not get better for Washington.  By the time the Caps recorded their first shot on goal in the period, 12:29 into the period, Carolina had added to their lead on Dougie Hamilton’s second power play goal of the game.  Carolina added another, by Brock McGinn, before adding a few shots on goal to pad an anemic total in what ended as a 5-0 loss.

Other stuff…

-- The 45 shots on goal allowed tied for the most allowed in a regulation game in Caps postseason history as is the most allowed in a road game in regulation.  The Caps allowed 45 shots in a 2-1 win over the Boston Bruins in Washington in Game 4 of their opening round series in 2012.

-- This was the first game in Capitals postseason history that they allowed more than 40 shots on goal and recorded fewer than 20 shots on goal of their own.

-- John Carlson recorded a shot on goal at 12:09 of the first period.  The Caps would go 23:04 before their next shot on goal, that by Alex Ovechkin 15:13 into the second period.  They would not get another until Dmitry Orlov was credited with a shot from 84 feet, from the neutral zone, 12:29 into the third period.  That was one shot on goal in 40:20 between the Carlson and Orlov shots.

-- The shutout was the first time the Caps were blanked in a postseason game since losing Game 7 of the 2017 Eastern Conference semifinals, 2-0, to the Pittsburgh Penguins.  It was the first time the Caps were shutout on the road since dropping a 1-0 decision the New York Rangers in Game 6 of the 2013 Eastern Conference quarterfinals.

-- This was only the second time in the Caps’ last 24 postseason games that they allowed more than four goals.  They allowed six in a 6-4 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights in Game 1 of last year’s Stanley Cup final.

-- Carolina out-attempted the Caps, 69-43.  Alex Ovechkin had ten of the Caps’ 43 attempts and five of the 18 shots on goal.

-- Five Caps did not have a shot attempt – Nick Jensen, Jakub Vrana, Chandler Stephenson, Lars Eller, and Nic Dowd.  Four others – Matt Niskanen, Christian Djoos, T.J. Oshie, and Brett Connolly – had one shot attempt.

-- Turning point.  At the 10:59 mark of the first period, Carolina has a 1-0 lead, and shots on goal were tied, 8-8.  Then, Ovechkin and Andrei Svechnikov had their fight.  After that, Carolina outscored the Caps, 4-0, and out-shot them 37-10, and five of those Caps shots on goal came in the last minute of the contest.

-- The teams were credited with a combined 86 hits, Carolina with 52 and the Caps with 34.

-- That was the first time in Braden Hotlby’s postseason career than he faced more than 40 shots and allowed more than four goals.  Before tonight he faced 40 or more shots in ten postseason games without allowing more than four goals.  It was the first time Holtby faced more than 40 shots in a postseason game and took a regulation loss (five wins, five overtime losses before tonight).

In the end…

Take the tapes, and…

Off Day: The Cousins Look Back on Game 2

The Washington Capitals won Game 2 in their Eastern Conference quarterfinal matchup against the Carolina Hurricanes and have an off day before resuming the series in Carolina on Monday night.  The cousins take a break from Sunday brunch to offer some thoughts.

Peerless:  Two games in.  Any surprises?

Fearless:  Carl Hagelin leading the forwards in even strength ice time (15:35, more than a minute per game more than Tom Wilson) qualifies.  Wilson being second in that category would qualify, too.  Wilson has an interesting time on ice profile.  As of Sunday morning, he and Carolina’s Sebastian Aho are the only forwards so far to average at least 14 minutes a game in even strength ice time, more than three minutes of shorthanded ice time, and more than two minutes of power play ice time. 

Cheerless: The bottom six forwards have one point – Lars Eller’s empty net goal in Game 1.  The third line of Eller, Carl Hagelin, and Brett Connolly have 11 shots on goal, which isn’t all that bad, so one might think a breakthrough is coming.  The fourth line of Nic Dowd, Chandler Stephenson, and Andre Burakovsky has a total of two shots on goal, both by Dowd.  All of them are averaging less than nine minutes of ice time per game so far.

Peerless: This is a strange place for the Caps, winning Games 1 and 2 on home ice.  They did not do it last season.  They have done it once since 2013, winning Games 1 and 2 at home against Philadelphia in the first round in 2016.  Is this a bad place for them?

Fearless:  Not really.  You’re thinking like “Old Disappointed Caps fan,” not like “New Stanley Cup Champion Caps fan.”  This is a club that last season did not let going down two games on home ice in the first round become a fatal matter, and while they did drop three straight against Tampa Bay after winning Games 1 and 2 on the road in the conference final last spring, they did scratch out wins in Games 6 and 7 to advance to the final.  The point is that the Caps did not get too high with the highs, nor did they get too low with the lows.  There is no reason to think that they won’t behave in similar fashion with largely the same group this season.

Cheerless:  In the back of my mind…y’know, it’s really cluttered back there what with all the…

Peerless: You were saying…

Cheerless: Oh yeah, I just can’t help but think that this is a team that has not finished games all that well this season and that they have allowed Carolina twice to tie games in the third period in this series.  It does not give one the most comfortable feeling that they are just going to put the Hurricanes in a three-game hole.  One thing to think about, though; the Caps went on the road 11 times this season after winning a game on home ice and went 7-3-1 in those games, so it is not as if going on the road stifled their momentum to any large degree.

Peerless: Of 17 goalies to dress so far, only two – San Jose’s Martin Jones and Tampa Bay’s Andrei Vasilevskiy – have worse save percentages than Carolina’s Petr Mrazek.  However, Mrazek has faced only 50 shots.  Only San Jose’s goalies (Jones and Aaron Dell) have faced fewer (49).  The Caps emphasize “quality” over “quantity” of shots, but has 50 shots (not including the empty netter) been too low a number?

Fearless:  I think this is something that will sort itself out, given the way the shots have been distributed so far.  Jakub Vrana (two), T.J. Oshie (two), Evgeny Kuznetsov (one), and Andre Burakovsky (none) have combined for five shots in two games.  In the regular season, those four players combined to average almost eight shots per game as a group.  One has to think that one or more of them will return to some higher level of shots on goal frequency.

Cheerless: Two things to think about here.  First, Mrazek, whether his own or his teammates’ fault, has had awful first period numbers.  In Games 1 and 2, he stopped 11 of 16 first period shots, a .688 save percentage. That would be bad in a beer league.  Compare that with stopping 32 of 33 shots over the second and third periods of those games, a .970 save percentage.  Then there are the third period shots.  The Caps have had a total of 13 third period shots on goal in the two games and have one non-empty net goal (Tom Wilson in Game 2).  Carolina had 18 third period shots on goal with three goals scored.  Maybe the Caps weren’t sitting back, but it sure looked as if they were.

In the end…

Through two games, these teams are almost mirror images of one another.  The Caps get off to fast starts, outscoring Carolina by a 5-1 margin in the first periods of Games 1 and 2, while the Hurricanes finish stronger, outscoring the Caps, 3-2, in the third periods of games (and one of the Caps’ goals was an empty netter).  The Caps, who emphasize quality over quantity in shots, still have the worst shot attempt differential at 5-on-5 of any of the 16 teams left (minus-40), and it’s not close (Dallas is minus-31). 

The good thing about that, or the scary thing (if you think the Caps are sitting back with a lead), is that the Caps are minus-39 in 5-on-5 shot attempts when holding a lead.  The next worse team when holding a lead is Toronto at minus-14. But then again, the Caps have held the lead for 75:41 of 181:48 in total ice time in this series.  Carolina has yet to hold a lead, the only one of the 16 teams yet to do so.  And that raises the question going into Game 3, can the Caps continue to play from ahead as the series shifts to Carolina?  A road team able to do that, able to take a crowd out of the game, can make things that much more difficult for a team trying to climb out of an 0-2 hole to make this a series. 

Off Day: The Cousins Look Back on Game 1

It is the first “off day” of the postseason, and we visit the cousins on the front porch to get their thoughts on what transpired in the Caps’ postseason opener against the Carolina Hurricanes…

Peerless: OK guys, the Caps won, and that’s the most important thing, but did they win the right way?

Fearless: There is no “right” or “wrong” way of winning in the postseason.  There is only winning and not winning.  It’s not “how,” it’s “how many.”  You dance with who brung ya; you have to be true to who you are.  You need to…

Cheerless: Geez cuz, you get subscription to Platitudes Monthly for Christmas?  The Caps had 18 shots on goal last night.  Now, that’s not necessarily bad.  Over the five years before this one, there were 46 times that a team recorded fewer than 20 shots on goal in a playoff game.  Those teams went 24-22, so it’s not like low shot totals are a death sentence.  And teams who did it at home did even better, going 13-6 when recording fewer than 20 shots on goal.  But here is the weird part.  If you look at 5-on-5 shot attempts over those same five postseasons and teams that recorded fewer than 25 attempts at fives, the teams that did so went 10-3.  All three teams who did so at home won their game.  But what about shot attempt differential, you ask?  In those five postseasons, 37 teams were worse than minus-25 in shot differential.  Teams that did so went 21-16.  Of the eight teams that did so at home, six won their game.  The Caps were minus-36 last night and won.  If you’re hanging your “the Caps played badly…look at the shots and shot attempts,” find another hook to hang your hat.

Peerless:  Next up…third periods.  This has been a problem all year for this team.  Only six teams allowed more third period goals in the regular season than the Caps.  None of them made the playoffs.  Last night, two goals in the third period.  Is this a problem?

Fearless: No; or at least not as big as you’re making it out to be.  With all the goals allowed in the third period in the regular season, the Caps lost only four games all season when leading after two periods, regulation and extra time.  Seven teams had fewer, and five of them reached the postseason.  They make things a lot more interesting than they need to be, but they usually come out on the right side in the end.

Cheerless: I just get the feeling that this is something really bad waiting to be sprung on the Caps.  Maybe it’s just my usual sunny disposition coming through, or remembering all those years of despair.  Over the five postseasons before this one, only six teams allowed more total third period goals than the Caps.  Two of them did so playing more than the 63 games the Caps played – Tampa Bay (67 in 64 games, most third period goals allowed) and Pittsburgh (64 in 79 games/second).  And, perhaps it follows that the nine overtime goals the Caps allowed in overtime over those five postseasons was second-most (Pittsburgh allowed 11 in 16 more games played).

Peerless:  Game 1, a win.  Think it matters?

Fearless:  If you believe it’s about being “first to four,” then of course.  Carolina has to win four of six games, the Caps need win only three of six to advance.  That’s the basic arithmetic.

Cheerless:  Hard to tell.  Last night was the first time that the Caps won a Game 1 on home ice in regulation since Game 1 of the opening round series against the Flyers in 2016. But looking back over time, from 2008 when they returned to the postseason after a long absence to last season, the Caps played 14 Games 1 on home ice.  They went 7-7 in those games.  In the series in which they won Game 1 at home, they went 3-4 in the series.  In the series in which they lost Game 1 on home ice, the Caps went 4-3.  You see a pattern there?  No, I don’t either.  That’s why they play the games.

Fearless: Look who’s spouting platitudes now…

Peerless:  OK guys.  Save it for Game 2.

Eastern Conference Quarterfinal - Game 1: Capitals 4 - Hurricanes 2

The Washington Capitals opened their defense of the Stanley Cup on Thursday night when they hosted the Carolina Hurricanes in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals at Capital One Arena. The Caps broke out to an early lead, and then they held on for dear life before scoring a late empty net goal to seal a 4-2 win.

First Period

Carolina came out hitting everything that was moving and dominated play early.  They could not solve goalie Braden Holtby, though, and not taking advantage their territorial edge came back to bit them.  It was the Caps who broke on top, mid-way through the period.  John Carlson sent a cross-ice pass out of his own end to Nicklas Backstrom in the neutral zone.  Backstrom weaved his way through center ice and into the Carolina zone, and then using defenseman Jaccob Slavin as a screen, snapped a shot over goalie Petr Mrazek’s glove to make it 1-0, 9:58 into the period.

The Caps’ power play took over after that.  With Justin Faulk in the box on a high-sticking call, Backstrom camped out at the post to the right of Mrazek, and with Carolina’s defense otherwise occupied, was all alone to redirect a centering pass from Evgeny Kuznetsov from the right wing circle behind Mrazek to make it 2-0 at the 13:10 mark.

The Caps closed the scoring in the first period on another power play. Alex Ovechkin started the play with a cross-rink pass to Evgeny Kuznetsov along the right wing wall.  Kuznetsov slid the puck out to John Carlson at the top of the zone for a shot that pinballed when it reached the crease.  The loose puck skittered to Mrazek's right where Ovechkin was lurking, and Ovechkin slid a shot under Mrazek's right pad to make it 3-0, 18:05 into the period.  That would do it for the first period scoring.

-- Carolina out-shot the Caps, 10-9, and out-attempted them, 19-15.

-- John Carlson had three assists, the first defenseman in Capitals history to record three assists in one period of a playoff game.

-- Carolina was credited with 23 hits in the first period.

Second Period

The Caps put little pressure on Carolina in the second period, but Carolina was unable to take advantage, and the team skated 20 minutes without a red light being turned on.

-- Carolina out-shot the Caps, 11-4, in the period, and they out-attempted them, 20-19.

-- The Caps closed the hits margin in the period, credited with 27 after two periods to Carolina’s 32.  Brooks Orpik led the team with six.

-- The fourth line took only seven shifts, total, through two periods.

Third period

If a two-goal lead is the most dangerous lead in hockey, the three-goal lead is not far behind.  When Carl Hagelin had the Caps’ potential fourth goal on his stick on a breakaway in the fourth minute of the period, it looked as if this game could be put safely to bed.  Alas, Hagelin’s backhand was not elevated, and Mrazek stopped it with his right pad.  And that would be meaningful later.

How?  Barely a minute later, Andrei Svechnikov ended Braden Holtby’s shutout bid when he took a drop pass from Linus Wallmark just inside the Caps’ blue line, circled through the right wing circle and around John Carlson, and snapped a shot past Holtby’s blocker on the far side to make it 3-1, 5:07 into the period.

Carolina closed to within a goal less than three minutes later, once more courtesy of Svechnikov.  Justin Faulk dumped the puck into the Caps’ end, and Wallmark got to the loose puck first.  He spun and centered the puck, but it slid behind Greg McKegg to Svechnikov in the right wing circle.  He one-timed the puck past Holtby on the short side, and it was 3-2, 7:26 into the period.

The Caps buttoned things up better after that, and they even killed two Carolina power plays down the stretch.  A minute after killing the second of those Hurricane power plays, Lars Eller ended the suspense, scoring an empty net goal at 19:23 to ice the 4-2 win.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps had 18 shots on goal.  It was the 22^nd time in team history that the Caps recorded fewer than 20 shots on goal in a playoff game and the eighth time they did so in a win.

-- Alex Ovechkin had 11 shot attempts.  Not all that unusual.  The seven missed shots?  Yeah, that stood out.

-- Carolina out-attempted the Caps, 69-43, 30-9 in the third period.

-- Nic Dowd celebrated his signing a three-year contract extension with the Caps by skating 6:40, which wasn’t even the team low.  Chandler Stephenson skated 6:12, and Andre Burakovsky skated 5:27; neither had a shot attempt.  It was a quiet night for the fourth line.

-- Five Caps took faceoffs in this game.  None finished at 50 percent.  Three finished at 43 percent (Nicklas Backstrom, Lars Eller, and Nic Dowd.

-- Brooks Orpik did not have a shot attempt, but he did have seven hits to lead the team.  And Carolina, who opened the game with 23 hits in the first period, had only a 37-35 edge at the end.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had his third career multi-goal game, tying him for fifth place all time on the Caps’ list of playoff game multi-goal scorers.

-- Odd that Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom each skated less than 13 minutes at even strength.  Five forwards skated more, including Carl Hagelin, whose 17:59 at even strength led all forwards.

-- Lars Eller was the only Capital with more than one takeaway.  He had three.

-- The win was Braden Holtby’s 46^th career playoff win, breaking a tie with Tony Esposito for 23^rd place, all time, and lifting him into a tie with Jonathan Quick for 22^nd place.

In the end…

Pretty?  No.  But the only thing that matters is that it was a win.  Still, the Caps were almost victimized by a problem they have had all season and have yet to solve – weak third periods.  This is the wrong time of year to endure that sort of thing, and it is something that the club needs to address if they are to keep home ice advantage.

The Peerless Prognosticator Brings You: 2019 Eastern Conference Quarterfinal, Washington Capitals vs. Carolina Hurricanes

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

For the first time in the history of the franchise, the Washington Capitals go into the postseason on a playoff winning streak.  The defending Stanley Cup champions open their championship defense on Thursday night against the Carolina Hurricanes at Capital One Arena carrying a four-game postseason winning streak, sweeping the Vegas Golden Knights in the Cup final last spring after dropping the first game of the series.  For the Caps, defending a championship is new.  So is facing the Hurricanes in the postseason. This will be the first playoff meeting of the clubs.

Washington Capitals (48-26-8)

Vs.

Carolina Hurricanes (46-29-7)

Then and Now I

This year’s version of the Capitals looks a lot like last year’s version in many respects.  One in which this group is clearly better is in scoring offense.  The Caps averaged 3.38 goals per game, the second highest average of the “Rock the Red” era (since 2005-2006, which was still “black and bronze,” but whatever), trailing only the 2009-2010 juggernaut that average 3.82 goals per game, the highest in this era of hockey until Tampa Bay eclipsed it this season (3.89 goals per game).

The Caps did experience a slight deterioration in their shots on goal differential, their own shots on goal dropping from 31.9 shots per game last season to 31.5 shots on goal per game this season.  On the other side of the ledger, shots on goal allowed this season were up (30.4) from last season (29.0), the result being a shot differential dropping from plus-2.9 per game to plus-1.1.

Extending that statistic to its next level – shot attempts at 5-on-5 – the Caps have improved this season.  Their shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 jumped from 47.98 to 49.04, representing a change in differential of plus-158, year-to-year.  It enabled the Caps to jump in ranking from 24^th in this category last season to 18^th this season.

If there was an area that might cause a sense of dread among Caps fans, it might be the idea of playing with a lead.  Consider that last season, the Caps went 28-0-1 when leading after one period, their .966 winning percentage being the best record in the league when leading after 20 minutes.  This year, that record was 27-7-3, the .730 winning percentage ranked 20^th and second-worst among playoff qualifiers in the East (the New York Islanders were 22-4-5/.710).  On the other hand, this was a club that lost once in regulation last season when leading after two periods (36-1-3), their .900 winning percentage ranked 11^th.  This season, they slipped a bit (37-3-1), their .902 winning percentage almost unchanged and also ranked 11^th.

Then and Now II

This is the first meeting of these teams in the postseason, but it is not as if they do not know one another.  They have a history dating back to the Southeast Division days.  It has been a successful history from the Caps’ point of view.  Washington has not lost consecutive games to the Hurricanes since 2013, when they lost games in October and December.  In 23 games between the clubs since then, the Caps are 17-5-1.

That record includes a four-game sweep of this year’s season series that was not so much dominating as it was consistently good enough:

How Caps of you to notice…

In the Alex Ovechkin era, the Caps are a team that dominates opponents on home ice in the regular season.  In the playoffs, not so much.  Since 2007-2008, when the Caps reached the postseason for the first time with Ovechkin on the roster, the Caps are 305-119-51 on home ice in the regular season, but only 34-28 in the playoffs.  The postseason winning percentage (.548) ranks 11^th in the league over that span. 

How Caps of you to notice II…

In 121 postseason games in franchise history, the Caps have recorded more than 40 shots on goal 15 times.  Only once did they do so and win a game in regulation, beating the New York Islanders, 5-1 with 41 shots on goal on April 23, 2015.  Their overall record in such games is 4-11, three of the four wins and six of the 11 losses coming in overtime.  Oddly enough, the Caps have allowed more than 40 shots on goal to opponents 15 times in their postseason history and have a record of 6-9, four of the wins and eight of the losses coming in overtime.

Never Ever…Again

We made the point last year at this time, and we will make it again.  The Capitals have never swept a best-of-seven playoff series.  Only four times have they won a series in five games (1990 against the New York Rangers, 1998 against the Ottawa Senators, 2011 against the Rangers, and last year's Cup final against Vegas).

The Magic Number

The Caps have scored four or more goals 33 times in 121 postseason games in their history.  They lost only one of them in regulation, that being Game 1 of last year’s Stanley Cup final to the Vegas Golden Knights, 6-4.  They have one other loss in that situation, a 5-4 overtime loss to Columbus in Game 2 of last year’s first round series.

The Cast of Skaters

The big difference in scoring offense on an individual level came from sources that should make Caps fans feel pretty good about the future.  Tom Wilson improved by eight goals from last year to this (from 14 to 22), while Jakub Vrana upped his goal total by 11 (from 13 to 24).  That 19-goal improvement by those two players is more than the total year-to-year improvement of 18 goals.  To that add the seven-goal improvement by T.J. Oshie (from 18 to 25) and Brett Connolly (from 15 to 22), and the improved contributions by the forwards has been considerable, even with Lars Eller dropping off some (from 18 to 13 goals).

On the back end, the Caps were off a bit in goal scoring from last season, down from 39 to 35 among the defensemen.  That is the product of Dmitry Orlov’s struggles to get anything to the back of the net.  He did not have a goal over his last 34 games this season (he did have 14 assists), going 0-for-43 shooting after posting three goals on 58 shots over his first 48 games.  Dry spells have not been a problem for John Carlson.  His scoring numbers are not much changed from last season (15-53-68) to this (13-57-70), and that is a good thing.  He and San Jose’s Brent Burns are the only league defensemen to have topped 65 points in each of the last two seasons.  And, while Carlson’s plus-minus rating was “even” last season, this year he was plus-21, his best year in that category since 2010-2011, when he was also plus-21.  Carlson led the Caps in total scoring against Carolina this season with seven points (2-5-7).  The skaters’ numbers over the four-game season series play out as follows for each team:

Working with a net

In the expansion era of the NHL, starting in 1967-1968, there have been 49 goaltenders appearing in at least 50 postseason games.  Of that group, the Capitals’ Braden Holtby ranks third in goals against average (2.04) and second in save percentage (.929).  Only five active goaltenders have appeared in more postseason games than Holtby (82), and if things go well, he could be third on that list by the second round, depending on how Nashville’s Pekka Rinne fares.  He is fifth in wins (45) and could also find himself in third place on that list by the second round.  Further, he has been dominant against Carolina, sporting a career 16-6-0, 1.98, .937 record with two shutouts, a record that includes a perfect 4-0-0 record this season. 

On the other side, the expectation is that Petr Mrazek will get the call to open the series against Washington.  Mrazek is in his first season with Carolina after spending parts of six seasons in Detroit with the Red Wings and 17 games with Philadelphia last year.  He had a good year with the Hurricanes, posting a goals against average of 2.39, his best since a 2.33 GAA with the Red Wings in 2015-2016, and a save percentage of .914, also his best since that 2015-2016 season with Detroit (.921).  He did benefit, however, from a relatively light workload.  He faced only 27.8 shots per 60 minutes. 

An odd fact about Mrazek.  He has 11 playoff games of work in his career, the first ten of which were against the Tampa Bay Lightning while he was with Detroit.  He was 4-7 in those 11 games.  In the four wins, three came via shutout, and he stopped 110 of 112 shots (.982 save percentage).  In the seven losses, he allowed 131 goals on 147 shots (.891).  But since he last faced Tampa Bay in April 2016, he has appeared in only one postseason game, logging 31 minutes while stopping 12 of 14 shots in mop-up duty in a 7-0 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins as a Philadelphia Flayer in April 2018.

Mrazek has had most of the work against the Caps this season, going 0-2-0, 2.56, .915 in 117 minutes over two appearances.  If he falters, there is Curtis McElhinney, who has two playoff game appearances nine years apart in which he stopped 28 of 33 total shots faced (.848 save percentage).  He has one win in nine career regular season appearances against Washington (1-5-0, 3.67, .866).

Who’s Hot ‘n’ Not?

For the Capitals over the last ten games of the regular season…

• Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie led the team with four goals apiece.
• Oshie and Evgeny Kuznetsov led the team in points with nine apiece, Oshie going 4-5-9 and Kuznetsov going 3-6-9.
• Nic Dowd had two of the team’s six game-winning goals, the only Capital with more than one.
  
• Matt Niskanen had more shots on goal without lighting the red lamp than any other Capital (0-for-21).
• Alex Ovechkin slowed down at the end, posting three goals on 48 shots (6.3 percent).
• Tom Wilson had a team-high 13 giveaways over the last ten games.

For the Hurricanes over the last ten games of the regular season…

• Defensemen Dougie Hamilton led the team in goals with five.
• Jordan Staal and Teuvo Teravainen led the team in points with ten apiece, Stall going 4-6-10 and Teravainen going 3-7-10.
• Another defenseman – Justin Faulk – led the team down the ten-game stretch with two game-winning goals, the only Hurricane with more than one.
  
• Sebatian Aho did not record a goal on 24 shots in the last ten games.
• Forward Lucas Wallmark was a team-worst minus-5 in the last ten games.
• Justin Williams was charged with ten giveaways in the last ten games, most on the club.

Looks at Rooks

Last season the Caps dressed three rookies for more than 20 postseason games – Chandler Stephenson (24 games, 2-5-7, plus-3), Jakub Vrana (23 games, 3-5-8, plus-5), and Christian Djoos (22 games, 0-1-1, plus-5).  And this was after the Caps dressed four rookies for at least 50 games in the regular season (the three mentioned plus Madison Bowey) and nine in all over 82 games.  It did not seem to hurt the club.

With so few roster changes this season, the Caps had fewer occasions to dress rookies for any lengthy stretches.  Forward Travis Boyd did appear in 53 games, and defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler dressed for 26 games.  Tyler Lewington and Nathan Walker dressed for a handful of games as well.  Of this group, Boyd would appear most likely to get ice time, and his regular season (5-15-20, plus-6) suggests he could be a contributor in a limited, likely fourth line role.  His 0.38 points per game was 15^th among rookies appearing in at least 50 games.

Carolina is at the other end of the use spectrum for rookies.  Ten rookie skaters dressed for the Hurricanes this season, Andrei Svechnikov (82 games) and Warren Foegele (77 games) being regular fixtures in the lineup.  Svechnikov will certainly get some consideration for the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie.  He tied for third in this year’s rookie class in goals scored (20, with Toronto’s Andreas Johnsson and was tied for seventh in points (37, with Chicago’s Dominik Kahun).  What he did not do was produce a lot on the Hurricane power play, despite averaging 1:55 per game in ice time.  He had only one power play point over his last 23 games.

Foegele did not come into the league with the second-overall pick buzz of Svechnikov, and the third-round pick (67^th overall in the 2014 entry draft) has had a bit of an uneven go of it.  He did finish the season with 10 goals, one of 13 skaters in double digits for the Hurricanes, but he was a team worst (and by a large margin) minus-17.  He had a bit of a rough go of it down the stretch.  He did record goals in each of his last two games of the regular season, but over his last 29 games was still just 4-1-5, minus-6.

Special Considerations

The teams have almost identical special teams indices, but they get there is somewhat different ways.  Washington has a better power play (20.8 percent) than Carolina (17.8 percent), but a worse penalty kill (78.9 percent) than the Hurricanes (81.6 percent) in the regular season to get to a special teams index of 99.7 to 99.4 for Carolina.

Home ice has been kind to the Caps’ power play in terms of getting opportunities.  They had 133 power play chances in the regular season, sixth-most in the league.  When coupled with Carolina’s 125 shorthanded situations faced on the road, which ranks in the top half of the league (tied for 13^th most), the Caps might benefit from getting some man advantage chances.  The Caps had six power plays on home ice in the season series, converting one (16.7 percent).

On the other side of the ledger, Carolina had 128 power play chances on the road this season, fifth-most in the league, converting 25 of them (19.5 percent), a slightly better conversion rate than their overall performance.  Adding to that concern, the Caps were shorthanded 130 times this season, the fourth-highest total in the league, and allowed 30 goals, tied for the most power play goals allowed on home ice in the league (with Colorado).  If Carolina is to break through in Washington, it might be on the basis of the Caps being undisciplined.  The good news is that Carolina was 0-for-4 on the power play in their two regular season games in Washington this season.

When the series shifts to Carolina, things are a bit different.  The Hurricanes have not had a high volume of power play chances at home this season, the 119 chances tied for 21^st in the league.  They did little with the chances they had, too, converting only 19 for a 16.0 percent power play on home ice, 23^rd best in the league.  The Caps can, however, get in some trouble on the road in this area.  They were shorthanded 131 times this season, 10^th in the league.  Their power play goals allowed (25/13^th) and penalty kill rate (80.9 percent/12^th) were similarly ranked.

Flipping the script, Washington had an inability to generate power play chances on the road.  They had 103 this season, fourth-fewest in the league.  They converted on 19 occasions, the 18.4 percent conversion rate ranked 19^th in the league.  For Carolina’s part, they did a fair job of limiting power play chances on home ice, the 114 shorthanded situations faced tied for 14^th-fewest in the league.  Their penalty kill rate on home ice (80.7 percent) was middle-of-the-road (tied for 15^th-best).

Behind the Bench

The head coaches in this series took different paths to get to similar places.  Washington’s Todd Reirden and Carolina’s Rod Brind’Amour are both in their first year behind an NHL bench.  Both were players in the NHL, Reirden being a less renowed player, appearing in 183 regular season games for four teams and five postseason games for the St. Louis Blues over two seasons.  On the other hand, Brind’Amour skated for 20 seasons with Philadelphia and Carolina, recording 235 goals and 601 points in almost 1,500 regular season games while winning a Cup with the Hurricanes in 2006. What Brind’Amout does not have is Stanley Cup playoff behind an NHL bench despite starting his coaching career as an assistant and development with Carolina in 2011. That experience in the postseason as a coach is something Reirden brings as an assistant in both the Pittsburgh and Washington organizations, helping Barry Trotz to his first Stanley Cup win as a head coach last season.   

Each coach comes from a different place in terms of their assumption of duties.  Brind’Amour took over a team that had not tasted the postseason since 2009.  He was – and is – familiar with the organization, but he had to inject a sense of purpose and focus to raise this group to the next level.  By any measure, he succeeded in that.

Reirden’s challenge was more subtle.  He was bequeathed a team that won a championship and made few changes in the off-season.  The temptation here is to say that all he had to do was show up and not over-coach what was already a winning formula.  How many times does that work?  Reirden, a low-key sort for public consumption, gave the club a fair amount of slack, and the veteran group did not appear to abuse it.  The product of that is a team that, like last year’s, does not panic in the face of adversity.  One way in which this evidenced itself was a slightly better record this season when trailing after two periods of games, where the Caps earned points in ten of 27 such games (4-17-6) while earning points in only five of 23 such games last season (3-18-2).

The Caps will win if…

They play close to their average level of skill and focus.  That means they cannot take Carolina lightly.  One way fans will be able to tell if the Caps are successful in this regard is how they handle Games 1 and 2 at home.  Last season they lost those first two games on home ice against Columbus and rallied to win the series on their way to the Cup.  Home ice has been a problem in the postseason for the Caps in recent years, and how well they take care of business, being a veteran teams with championship experience, will be an indicator of their focus and effort level against an opponent who, while recording fine underlying numbers this season, has a lot of players with little postseason experience who might look at this year’s trip to the playoffs as “it’s just nice to be here.”

The Hurricanes will win if…

Petr Mrazek can visualize the Capitals in Tampa Bay jerseys.  Only twice in seven seasons has Mrazek played in more than half of his team’s games, and he has never started more than 49 games in any of those seven seasons.  He is certainly capable of posting good numbers; it is the limited exposure he has gotten that is an issue.  And, he is facing the fifth-best scoring offense in the league.  What will be interesting to see is if he can extend his magic on home ice.  In his last six games at home, he was 6-0-0, 1.15, .963, with one shutout.  If he can keep up that level of performance, and either he or his teammates steal a game early in Washington, the Capitals could have their work cut out for them.

In the end…

The Caps are battle-tested in a way Carolina is not, they are deeper, they are more skilled, and the have a substantial goaltending advantage.  Until the last game of the season, a meaningless affair with the seeding already settled, they were one of, if not the best team since the trading deadline.  Only Tampa Bay had more wins (15) after the trading deadline than the Caps (13, tied with Carolina and Boston).  The great unknown for the Caps here is how they handle the role of defending champion, one that the club has never experienced and that only two skaters on the roster (Brooks Orpik and Carl Hagelin) have experienced in their careers before this season.  It comes down to how well the Caps focus and take care of business on their side more than anything Carolina does on theirs.

Capitals in six

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 27

The Washington Capitals wrapped up the regular season in Week 27 in what was among the stranger weeks of the season.  They started against the only team in the East they had not defeated in the regular season, faced a team desperate to remain in the playoff race, and wrapped things up with a meaningless game against their old coach.  Along the way, the Captain added to his career trophy take.

Record: 1-2-0

The Caps entered the week trying to hold off the New York Islanders in the race for the Metropolitan Division title.  The first order of business was facing the Florida Panthers, to whom the Caps had already lost twice this season, once in extra time.  It was part of a longer string of frustration against the Panthers, a 3-5-2 record over their previous ten meetings.  The Caps started poorly, training at the first intermission, 1-0, were steamrolled in the second, falling behind 4-0 after 40 minutes, and then mounted a frantic comeback, coming within a shot off a post in the late stages of the third period before allowing an empty-net goal and losing, 5-3.

The middle game of the week against the Montreal Canadiens was a matter of facing down a team that was running out of time and chances to reach the postseason, sitting in the ninth spot in the Eastern Conference with eight teams advancing to the playoffs.  The Caps scored late in the first period, endured a momentum changing goal to tie the game even later in the first period, before getting a goal from fourth-liner Nic Dowd in the second period and shutting the Canadiens down in the third period to grab a 2-1 decision.

That win clinched the Metro for the Caps and rendered the final game of the week and the regular season irrelevant but for final statistics.  The Caps substituted freely, Dmitrij Jaskin, Jonas Siegtenthaler, Chandler Stephenson, and Pheonix Copley replacing Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson, T.J. Oshie, and Braden Holtby in the lineup.  The rearranged roster failed to score against the league’s best scoring defense, and the Caps dropped Game 82, 3-0.  It was the fifth time in the last eight full seasons (not including the shortened 2012-2013 season) that the Caps were shut out in Game 82, the fourth time on home ice.

Offense: 1.67/game (season: 3.34/5th)

The Caps opened the week without a goal in the first 30:55, scored five goals in the next 52:43, and then went dark for the last 97:02.  As it was, those five goals were scored by five different players – Backstrom, Dowd, Jakub Vrana, Lars Eller, and Evgeny Kuznetsov.  The five goals in three games was the weakest three-game stretch of offense since January, when the Caps scored three goals in Games 45-47 in losses to St. Louis, Nashville, and the Islanders.  That was part of a four-game run in which the Caps scored only four goals in four games, that streak started when the Caps lost a 2-1 overtime decision to Columbus.

Twelve different players had points for the week, but only one – Oshie – had a multi-point week.  He had a pair of assists in the loss to Florida.  It was his 17^th multi-point game this season, tying him with Backstrom and Kuznetsov for third-most on the team.  John Carlson had an assist in the 5-3 loss to Florida, giving him 70 points for the season, the first time in his career he reached that level.  With the 68 points he posted last season, he joined San Jose’s Brent Burns as the only defensemen in the league to post at least 65 points in each of the last two seasons.  Carlson finished fourth among defensemen in points this season.

One player who did not record a goal was Alex Ovechkin.  Nevertheless, he won his eighth Maurice “Rocket” Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer, his 51 goals holding off the fast-closing Leon Draisaitl of the Edmonton Oilers, who recorded his 50^th goal in his team’s season finale.  Ovechkin has won the trophy in six of the past seven seasons.  His eight seasons as the league’s top goal scorer now stands alone in league history, surpassing the seven seasons in which Bobby Hull led the league in goals.

Defense: 3.00/game (season: 3.02/T-17th)

The Caps ran into a buzz-saw to start the week in the Panthers, who posted six goals in four of their previous ten games on home ice and averaged 4.3 goals per game on home ice over that stretch.  That the Caps allowed five goals, four of them on 33 shots against a live goaltender, was not entirely a surprise.  What was, was the mix.  The Panthers managed only 24 shots at even strength for the game (including the shot that yielded the empty net goal), but they added seven power play shots and another three while shorthanded. 

And then something happened that had not happened in almost six weeks.  When the Caps allowed Montreal to post 34 shots on goal, it was the first time since late February – since the trading deadline, in fact – that the Caps allowed more than 30 shots on goal in consecutive games.  Montreal’s shot volume was more conventional, 33 of them coming at even strength.  The Habs recorded 70 shot attempts at 5-on-5 in that game, that total almost equal to that of the other two games of the week combined (71).  Those 70 shot attempts at fives tied for the most allowed by the Caps this season, matching the 70 shot attempts that the Caps allowed on three other occasions, twice against Toronto and once against Pittsburgh (the only other time this season the Caps allowed that many on home ice).

That two-game total to begin and end the week included holding the Islanders to 38 shot attempts at 5-on-5.  It was the second straight time that the Caps held the Isles under 40 shot attempts at fives after allowing 46 in each of the first two games the teams met this season.  The Caps seemed to solve the Islanders in that regard, having posted more than 40 shot attempts in each of those two games while being held under 40 in their first two meetings.

Goaltending: 2.41 / .922 (season:  2.84/ .909 / 4 shutouts)

In a reversal of roles, it was Pheonix Copley’s turn to take most of the minutes in Week 27, starting the first and last games of the week.  He was not much bad as he was inconsistent.  He had a 24-minute stretch against Florida in which he allowed four goals on 18 shots, and that is what tanked his week.  But for that unfortunate stretch, he stopped 36 of 38 shots, a .947 save percentage.  He could not do much about the Islanders, given the lack of offense for the Caps, making his 21 saves on 23 shots a decent effort in a lost cause.  The two losses for the week broke a personal six-game winning streak for Copley.

Braden Holtby got the call in the middle game of the week and was superb.  He allowed one goal on 34 shots, the third time in five games he allowed only one goal.  In those last five appearances, Holtby stopped 144 of 152 shots (.947), winning all five.  Holtby finished the season allowing one or no goals in 16 games, the tenth-highest total by a Caps goaltender in team history and the fourth time he posted more than 15 such games.

Power Play: 0-for-5/0.0 percent (season: 20.8 percent/12th)

The Caps are heading into the postseason struggling on the power play.  Week 27 was perhaps their worst performance of the season.  Five chances in three games was a low for a three-game week this season.  It was the first time since Week 14 that they went without a single power play goal and only the third time this season they did so. 

It was even worse. The Caps did not record a power play shot on goal on any of their three power plays in six minutes over the first two games of the week.  The did record four shots on goal on the man advantage against the Islanders, but with a revamped lineup, the shots from Matt Niskanen, Tom Wilson and Lars Eller (two) were not quite as effective as they might have been coming from the sticks of Alex Ovechkin (who did not record a power play shot on goal in that game), Nicklas Backstrom, or John Carlson.

For the Caps, it was the culmination of a five week spell in which the power play dried up.  They went 7-for-48 over 17 games in those five weeks (14.9 percent).  They did not post a week over 20 percent in that span, hitting 20 percent once (Week 26 on 2-for-10 conversions).

Penalty Killing: 3-for-4/75.0 percent (season: 78.9 percent/24th)

The Caps almost made up for their poor power play performance with a decent penalty killing effort.  Of course, with only four shorthanded situations faced, it could be said that the best penalty kill is the one not taken.  Four shorthanded situations faced in three games was the team’s low for a week of three or more games this season.

It started in sketchy fashion, though.  Florida managed seven shot on goal in four minutes of power play time, but Pheonix Copley turned all of them aside.  The team was more disciplined as the week went on, although Montreal needed only 35 seconds to score the week’s lone power play goal against on their only power play shot on goal.

The Caps shut down the Islanders in the last game of the week, allowing only one unsuccessful shot on goal in four minutes of shorthanded ice time.

Faceoffs: 79-for-158 / 50.0 percent (season: 45.7 percent/31st)

By the Caps’ standards this season, Week 27 was a good one in the faceoff circle overall.  They finished at 50 percent for the week.  However, in the detail things were not as good.  They topped 50 percent only once in three games, that being against Florida to open the week (32-for-61/52.5 percent).  And, they won only the defensive zone (35-for-63/55.6 percent) and the neutral zone (27-for-53/50.9 percent).  Their winning percentages dropped in each of the last two games of the week (to 49.0 and then to 47.8 percent), and they were weak in the offensive end (17-for-42/40.5 percent).

Individually, Lars Eller had a fine week, going 50 percent or better in all three zones and one of only two Caps to take at least ten draws in each zone for the week.  The other player to take at least ten draws in each zone did not fare as well.  Evgeny Kuznetsov did hit 50 percent in defensive zone draws (5-for-10), but he was under 35 percent in the offensive and neutral zones and finished just 12-for-34 for the week (35.3 percent).Nicklas Backstrom led the team in overall winning percentage for the week (60.6 percent; minimum: ten draws taken), although he was underwater in the offensive end.

Goals by Period:

When you score five goals in three games, chances are that this category is not going to have a good look to it.  It did not.  The Caps lost both the first and second periods for the week, and that they broke even in the third period was entirely a product of desperation after falling behind Florida, 4-0, after two periods of their game.

If there is a concern in this area, it is in the drop-off in goals scored by period.  The Caps finished the season fourth in the league in first period goals (87), second in second period goals scored (103).  However, they were 18^th in third period goals scored (79).  Making that last number worse is that the Caps allowed 92 third period goals, seventh-most in the league, and leaving them with a minus-13 third period goal differential for the season.

Year-over-Year:

Given how closely this year’s team tracked with last year’s on a year-over-year basis over the course of the season, it is no surprise that as the season comes to a close, this one closely resembles last year’s in a number of categories.  One fewer win, one more extra time loss, and one fewer standings point is a thin margin of difference in results.  Over 82 games, the difference probably comes down to one second, that being the goal scored by San Jose’s Evander Kane on January 22^nd to tie a game the Caps had well in hand half-way through the third period.  The Caps lost that game in overtime.  Had they held on in that game, they could have finished this season with precisely the same record they had last year.

Overall, the team did better at even strength than last season, in goals scored and shot attempts.  It was on special teams that this year’s team slipped a bit from last season.  In other areas, particularly in the edgier areas – hits, blocked shots, turnovers, penalties – this year’s team was an improvement over last year’s squad, if only a slight one.

In the end…

So far, so good.  The Caps got through the regular season phase of the season in good shape, although the season-ending injury to Michal Kempny will present a challenge going forward.  This team has good offensive balance with seven 20-goal scorers and eight players with at least 40 points.  On that note, Alex Ovechkin will have a chance to do something that has not been done in a long time.  He recorded his eighth 50-goal campaign, an historic achievement.  But no 50-goal scorer has played for a Stanley Cup champion since Joe Sakic scored 54 goals in 2000-2001 for the Colorado Avalanche, who won the second Cup in franchise history that season.  At the other end of the ice, Braden Holtby looks to have adopted his playoff focus, which is going to be essential to maintain as the team goes forward.  Unlike last season, there is no doubt as to his readiness going into the postseason.  This team looks as ready as it can be to open its defense of the Stanley Cup championship in earnest.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Braden Holtby (1-0-0, 1.00, .971)
• Second Star: Nic Dowd (1-0-1, plus-1, game-winning goal, 56.0 percent faceoff wins)
• Third Star: Lars Eller (1-0-1, even, six shots on goal, 54.9 percent faceoff wins, six hits)