Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: T.J. Oshie

T.J. Oshie

“What a mistake to suppose that the passions are strongest in youth! The passions are not stronger, but the control over them is weaker! They are more easily excited, they are more violent and apparent; but they have less energy, less durability, less intense and concentrated power than in maturer life.”

-- Edward Bulwer-Lytton

Few players in the NHL play the game with more passion than T.J. Oshie.  The phrase, “he comes to play every night,” seems to have been created for him.  Just not by Edward Bulwer-Lytton.  But Bulwer-Lytton certainly penned a other phrases that could also apply to Oshie…

“It was a dark and stormy night…” There have been a lot of “dark and stormy nights” in the career of T.J. Oshie, at least more than his fans would like.  And by that, we mean nights in which he suffered injury that took him out the lineup for extended stretches.  In 11 seasons in the NHL, Oshie missed at least a dozen games five times; he has played as many as 80 games twice and has never played an entire regular season schedule.  Last season he missed 13 regular season games, 11 to an upper body injury, another to illness, and another for an undisclosed reason.  There were also the three games he missed in the postseason with a broken clavicle suffered Game 4 of the opening round series against Carolina.  He might not have been a difference maker in either Game 5 or Game 6, each game a lopsided decision for each team.  But in a tied Game 7 that went to a second overtime before being decided?  It is not too big a stretch to think his presence would have mattered.

“Prudence, patience, labor, valor; these are the stars that rule the career of mortals.” In his seven seasons in St. Louis, Oshie was a consistent goal scorer bordering on spooky.  He never averaged less than 0.23 goals per game (and that was in the abbreviated 2012-2013 season, cut shorter by injury that limited him to 30 games) and never more than 0.27 goals per game.  He stepped up in a big way after coming to Washington.  Only once in four seasons has he averaged less than 0.33 goals per game (in 2017-2018, 0.24 goals per game).  Last season, that goal scoring mattered.  The Caps lost only one game in regulation in the 20 contests in which Oshie scored at least one goal, posting a record of 16-1-3.

Odd Oshie Fact…

Since 2008-2009, when T.J. Oshie came into the NHL, only three Capitals have recorded more 20-goal seasons with the club than Oshie: Alex Ovechkin (11), Nicklas Backstrom (six), and Alexander Semin (four).  Oshie has three such seasons.  He also spent the first seven of those 11 seasons in St. Louis with the Blues.

Bonus Odd Oshie Fact…

In 11 seasons in the NHL, T.J. Oshie is one of only three players over that span to record at least 65 shots in each of those seasons (65 was his career low, in 2012-2013) and post shooting percentages over 10 percent in each of them.  The other two players are Sidney Crosby and Thomas Vanek.

Extra Bonus Odd Oshie Fact…

T.J. Oshie is the all-time games played, goals, assists, and points leader born in the state of Washington (Everett).  His 212-306-518 scoring line in 734 games tops the second-place player in all four categories, Tyler Johnson (139-169-308 in 469 career games).

Fearless’ Take…

Over the last four seasons, no duo in the NHL has posted more power play goals than the pair of Alex Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie (104).  Sure, Ovechkin has 71 of them, but Oshie manning the center of the 1-3-1 power play scheme and a right-handed shot best able to accept and convert passes from Nicklas Backstrom or Evgeny Kuznetsov on the right side for 33 power play goals is a critical ingredient to the Caps’ success on the man advantage.  In the 32 games as a Capital in which Oshie scored at least one power play goal (he had two in a 4-3 overtime loss to Tampa Bay in October 2017), the Caps are 24-3-5.

Cheerless’ Take…

T.J. Oshie is an example of the player with an ice time conundrum (did I use that word right, cuz?...”yes, you did”).  More ice time, worse outcomes.  Last season he skated at least 20 minutes 18 times, but the Caps were just 7-8-3 in those games.  He skated less than 18 minutes in 23 games, and the team was 16-6-1.  Then there was “Ornery Oshie.”  Seven times he was credited with five or more hits, and the Caps were 2-4-1.  Blocked shots?  The Caps were 7-4-3 in the 14 games in which he had at least two.  Oshie clearly plays with a lot of passion and sacrifices his body in service to winning, but wins don’t seem to come quite as often when he is playing games like that, at least last season.

Potential Milestones:

• 800 career NHL games played (734; he needs 66)
• 300 career games as a Capital (291; he needs nine)
• Top-20 in career goals as a Capital (102; he needs 27 to tie Alan Haworth, unless Evgeny Kuznetsov gets there first)
• Top-five in NHL goals among alumni of the University of North Dakota (212; he needs one to tie Jason Blake for fifth place)

The Big Question… Can T.J. Oshie’s game be “tamed” and preserve its effectiveness?

No one who watches T.J. Oshie play will make a claim that he is a timid player or that he won’t do what it takes to win, even if it means putting himself in harm’s way and skating into tight places that invite physical contact.  On the other hand, after appearing in 80 games in his first season with the Capitals, he has missed 35 regular season games over the past three seasons.  The odd part of it all is that in the last three seasons, the Caps have a better points percentage (72.9 percent of available standings points earned) in games Oshie missed than in those in which he played (65.4 percent). 

One might argue that this is a superficial comparison that should also be subjected to accounting for who the Caps played when Oshie was out, where they played (home/away), and even when (whether the Caps had safe seeding/standings position in his absence).  But regular season games are one thing, playoff games are another.  The Caps rallied after Oshie’s injury in last season’s series against Carolina to wallop the Hurricanes at home in Game 5, 6-0.  But the Caps scored only five goals over the final two games of the series, none in the last 57 minutes of their season.  When you think of the adversity that the Caps faced in the first round of their 2018 postseason, adversity that was overcome on their Stanley Cup journey, Having all hands on deck to address the difficulties faced against Carolina might have had a different outcome had all hands been on deck.  Perhaps history would have repeated itself.

This is not to lay blame at the feet of Oshie for playing hard and finding himself in an awkward circumstance that led to his injury in Game 5, nor is it an argument that Oshie has to change his game radically to preserve his presence in the lineup.  This has been the tradeoff the Caps and Oshie have made since he arrived in Washington.  He plays bigger than his size, is absolutely fearless in his approach to the game, but it has come at a price.  Taming his game could alter the balance of aggression and production, and that might be a bargain neither he nor the club can effectively make.

In the end…

Alex Ovechkin is the straw that stirs the drink, and Nicklas Backstrom knows how to serve it up, but T.J. Oshie might be the secret ingredient.  In his four years in Washington he is second in goals (102, to Ovechkin’s 183), fifth in assists (106), fifth in points (208), second in power play goals (33), tied for second in shorthanded goals (two), fourth in game-winning goals (16), second in shooting percentage (17.1 percent; minimum: 50 shots), sixth in credited hits (486), sixth in blocked shots (221, tops among forwards), and is first in takeaways (208, he has a takeaway/giveaway ratio of a superb 1.34:1). 

On top of that, Oshie is tied for second in postseason goals over the four seasons he has skated for the Caps (19, with Evgeny Kuznetsov), fifth in assists (26), four in points (45), tied for second in power play goals (10, with John Carlson), and tops in game-winning goals (five).  He might be overlooked in some quarters, between the spotlight shining on Alex Ovechkin and the persistent, “is Nicklas Backstrom the most underrated player” question.  But his importance to the club, both in his read-for-battle attitude and his production across a range of statistical categories and situations, brings to mind another quote from Edward Bulwer-Lytton… “The brave man wants no charms to encourage him to his duty, and the good man scorns all warnings that would deter him from fulfilling it.”

Projection: 73 games, 24-27-51, plus-6

Photo: Ethan Miller/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: Brendan Leipsic

Brendan Leipsic

“It is, generally, in the season of prosperity that men discover their real temper, principles, and designs.”

-- Edmund Burke

From a distance, the love of hockey and the love (or at least tolerance) of travel intersect in the career of Washington Capitals forward Brendan Leipsic.  Let us start with the 2012 Entry Draft.  Leipsic was taken in the third round (89^th overall) by the Nashville Predators, right between James Melindy by the Phoenix Coyotes and Ben Johnson of the New Jersey Devils, neither of whom have yet appeared in an NHL game.

Leipsic never dressed for the Predators, traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs in February 2015 with Olli Jokinen and a 2015 first round draft pick for Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli.  He lasted two-plus years in the Toronto organization but dressed for only six games (in 2015-2016) before he was taken by the Vegas Golden Knights in the 2017 expansion draft.  Leipsic played in 44 games for Vegas but did not make it with the Golden Knights to the playoffs, traded to the Vancouver Canucks for Phillip Holm in February 2018.  He finished the 2017-2018 season and started the 2018-2019 season in Vancouver, appearing in 31 games before he was waived and claimed by the Los Angeles Kings in December 2018.  Leipsic appeared in 45 games with the Kings but was not extended a qualifying offer as a restricted free agent at the end of the 2018-2019 season.  He was released by Los Angeles on June 25^th, but less than a week later he signed as an unrestricted free agent by the Caps. 

So now, having just turned 25 years old this past May, Leipsic is with his sixth NHL organization, having played for four teams in a total of 126 games before arriving in Washington.  Unlike other Caps signings this summer, Leipsic is on a “show me” deal, a one-year/$700,000 contract (capfriendly.com)

Odd Leipsic Fact…

Of 649 players to skate for the Portland Winterhawks of the Western Hockey League, Brendan Leipsic is one of only ten to record 300 or more points.

Bonus Odd Leipsic Fact…

Brendan Leipsic was the only forward in the NHL last year to play in a total of 60 or more games, split between two clubs, and not log a single second of shorthanded ice time. In 126 career NHL games he has logged a grand total of 30 seconds in shorthanded ice time.

Fearless’ Take…

Hockey is not Dancing with the Stars, but if it was, Brendan Leipsic might be the sort to try and trip his opponent in mid-routine.  In 2014, he was named “most annoying prospect in hockey” by The Hockey News.  But there might be more than that here.  Despite his frequent flyer miles, he has averaged 0.38 points per game in his brief career to date, more than 30 points per 82 games.  He has averaged 23 assists per 82 games in his career, and if you need couple of points of comparison for that, Lars Eller had 23 assists in 81 games last season; Jakub Vrana had 23 assists in 82 games.  His 0.28 assists per game over his career are more than the departed Andre Burakovsky averaged over five seasons with the Caps (0.25).

Cheerless’ Take…

There is something to be said for a player who is enough in demand to have been picked up by six franchises.  But in the space of barely seven years, from his being drafted to being signed by the Caps?  That makes him something of an expendable player, and he has compiled one of the stranger histories in that regard, having been traded (twice), exposed and selected in an expansion draft, waived, not given a qualifying offer as a restricted free agent, and signed as an unrestricted free agent.

Potential Milestones:

• 200 NHL games (126; he needs 74)

The Big Question… Is Brendan Leipsic merely in need of some stability in his environment to flourish?

Brendan Leipsic has played for four franchises and did not play more than 45 games for any of them (45 games for Los Angeles last season).  It is one thing for a veteran approaching the end of his career to parlay a series of short-term deals, trades, and the like into extending his career.  That veteran likely has the benefit of many games of experience and a body of work and skills well known across the league.  It would seem to be more difficult for a young player, still (hopefully) on the climbing portion of his developmental arc, to develop a body of work and skills having to move from organization to organization, learning new systems, learning how to live and cope with life as a pro hockey player, and trying to achieve some measure of stability in that existence. 

In a way, Leipsic’s modest contract argues for that stability.  The Capitals have to make moves on their roster to shed almost $1.4 million from their payroll.  Moving Leipsic’s cap burden in its entirely yields barely half of that ($700,000), and that would be the case if no cap burden comes back in trade.  Further, Leipsic is not waiver exempt, so exposing him to a waiver claim with the objective of assigning him to Hershey in the AHL risks losing a forward the Caps targeted for signing in free agency.

In the end…

Leipsic will be part of a competition for spots on a reworked bottom-six forward corps for the Caps, perhaps as a fourth liner with Nic Dowd and Garnet Hathaway.  At first blush, Leipsic will add more speed and perhaps more orneriness than the fourth line possessed last season.  He has an opportunity in Washington that he might not have had in his previous stops.  Improving the consistency and performance of the bottom six forwards, particularly with respect to the two-way play of the fourth line, was a top priority.  Leipsic will not likely contribute much, if anything, in penalty killing, but his offense could surprise given his career per-game production and a chance to display his talents for a club over a whole season.  To that, add that he is on a one-year demonstration contract, an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent at the end of the season and looking warrant a deal that could take him close to his 30^th birthday.  That Leipsic will have this chance on perhaps the best team he has skated on could provide the showcase to display the true nature of his ability.

Projection: 61 games, 7-17-24, minus-1

Photo: Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: Evgeny Kuznetsov

Evgeny Kuznetsov

“Concentrate all your thoughts upon the work at hand. The sun's rays do not burn until brought to a focus.”

-- Alexander Graham Bell

In less than 15 months, Evgeny Kuznetsov went from Stanley Cup champion and a player some thought deserving of the Conn Smythe Trophy as the most valuable player of the postseason to suspended for four years from international play for a positive test for a banned substance. 

It came on the heels of what was an inconsistent, disappointing season for one of the most innately gifted players in the history of the franchise.  It was not that his production fell off a cliff; his top-end numbers were down (21-51-72 in 76 games, compared to 27-56-83 the previous season) but not by drastic amounts.  It was that after an 83-point season, one of 18 players appearing in at least 75 games to average more than a point-per-game in 2017-2018, he seemed to be on the brink of taking a place among the elite performers in the NHL.

He started hot last season, going 7-25-32 in his first 28 games and not going consecutive games without a point.  He finished strong, going 4-8-12 in his last dozen games.  However, there was that dry void in the middle – 10-18-28 in 36 games.  It was by no means a bad stretch of games; he had seven multi-point games in that part of the schedule, including a three-point and a four-point game.  But, it was not an elite stretch either; in half of those games (18) he did not record a point.  That was a bit hard to accept for the top-line center on this team.  And it mattered.  The Caps were just 11-15-1 in the 27 games in which he did not record a point.

Odd Kuznetsov Fact…

If Evgeny Kuznetsov posts at least 20 multi-point games this season, he will become the 11^th capital to do it more than once.  The others:

• Alex Ovechkin: 10 seasons
• Mike Gartner: 6
• Nicklas Backstrom: 5
• Peter Bondra: 5
• Dennis Maruk: 3
• Adam Oates: 2
• Bob Carpenter: 2
• Geoff Courtnall: 2
• Michal Pivonka: 2
• Mike Ridley: 2

Bonus Odd Kuznetsov Fact…

Kuznetsov is one of six players over the last five seasons to post at least 300 points and record a plus-minus of plus-60 or better (328 points, plus-65).  The others:

• Nikita Kucherov (444/plus-99)
• Brad Marchand (373/plus-84)
• Mark Scheifele (336/plus-72)
• Artemi Panarin (320/plus-63)
• Patrice Bergeron (318/plus-70)

Fearless’ Take…

You have to wonder what a season for Kuznetsov would look like if he really put it all together.  There was the 2015-2016 season, when he received votes for the All Star team, Byng, Hart, and Selke trophies.  Even with the let down in 2016-2017 (59 points), he earned votes for the Selke trophy.  He posted career highs of 27 goals and 83 points in 2017-2018 and might have added a Conn Smythe trophy.  Despite last year being a disappointing one, he still posted more than 50 assists for the third time in four seasons, one of only seven players in the league to do it at least three times in the last four seasons.  (Nicklas Backstrom is the only player to do it all four years and has a six-year streak running).  The talent is clearly there; Caps fans just have not yet seen the full spectrum of it over an entire season.

Cheerless’ Take…

Kuznetsov did not do particularly well with a heavy ice time burden.  In 22 games in which he skated more than 20 minutes, he was 5-14-19, plus-1, and the Caps were 9-7-6.  He also has, if not an extreme, than at least a modest “sawtooth” pattern to his scoring over his five full seasons in the NHL: 37 points in 80 games in 2014-2015, 77 in 82 games the following year, 59 in 82 games in 2016-2017, 83 points in 2017-2018, and 72 points last season.  

And, there was the playoff performance.  Yes, a lot of Caps underperformed their 2018 contributions, but Kuznetsov is the top line center.  He underperforms and, well, we saw what happened.  He did score what would be the last goal in the Caps’ season, in Game 7 against Carolina, but it was the only one he scored in the series.  Compare that with the 12 he had in 24 games in the 2018 playoffs, and it was quite a disappointment.

Potential Milestones:

• 400 career points (337; he needs 63)
• 1,000 career shots on goal (892; he needs 108)
• 100 career multi-point games (81; he needs 19)
• Top-20 all time in goals as a Capital (101; he needs 28 to tie Alan Haworth (129), unless T.J. Oshie gets there first)
• Top-20 all time in points as a Capital (337; he needs 23 to tie Mike Green (360))
• Top-15 all time in points as a Capital (337; he needs 71 to tie Alexander Semin (408), unless John Carlson gets there first)
• Top-15 all time in assists as a Capital (236; he needs 23 to tie Larry Murphy (259))
• Top-15 all time in game winning goals as a Capital (20; he needs two to tie Bob Carpenter (22))

The Big Question… Will off-ice issues be too much of a distraction for Evgeny Kuznetsov this season?

This question might be the elephant in the locker room.  Washington cannot succeed if Kuznetsov has a season that does not measure up to last year’s standard, and even matching that would be something of a disappointment for those who believe him to be an elite talent.  It is a confounding situation in which Kuznetsov finds himself, high expectations under the burden of his suspension, but even with a “disappointing” 70-point season he would be only the eighth player in Caps history with four 70-plus point seasons, and only five will have had more.  One thing to watch for is what kind of start Kuznetsov gets off to.  In three of the last four seasons, he has recorded at least 20 points in the Caps’ first 20 games (2015-2016, 2017-2018, and last season).  A slow start would be an early indicator that not all is well.

The Caps simply cannot afford a sluggish or distracted Kuznetsov having his production diminish.  In five full seasons with the club, Washington is 243-114-42 in games in which he recorded a point.  That works out to a 50-23-9 record per 82 games.  The difference he makes on the power play is even more important.  In those five seasons, he has at least one power play point in 86 games, and the team has a record of 64-15-7 in those contests.  Yes, with points come success, but he being a centerpiece of that success, if his production drops off to any appreciable degree, it seems unlikely that the Caps can make it up from other players.

In the end…

While no other sanctions appear under consideration, or at least imminent, Kuznetsov’s suspension from international play could be a cloud that hangs over Kuznetsov all season.  It could put his play under a microscope, people looking for every hiccup in his performance as a reason to think the worst.  It is the sort of distraction a team thinking of itself as a contender in a hyper-competitive division does not need.

However, looked at from a different point of view, Kuznetsov has been given an opportunity.  If he is able to focus on the game and compartmentalize his other difficulties, he might finally unleash the sort of production his talent suggests he has, but has yet to display fully.  His 2018 postseason gave Caps fans a look at just what that kind of performance looks like.  If Kuznetsov can perform at or near that level over an entire season, it would go a long way to coming to terms with his other problems and putting them behind him.

Projection: 78 games, 22-55-77, plus-8

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: Garnet Hathaway

Garnet Hathaway

“True progress quietly and persistently moves along without notice.”

-- Saint Francis de Sales

Progress is measured in various ways.  In pro team sports it might be how a player makes developmental progress through a team system, or it might be, in the case of hockey, how goal or point totals might increase over time.  For winger Garnet Hathaway, signed by the Washington Capitals this summer to a four-year/$6 million contract, progress might be described in games played.  

Undrafted as an amateur, Hathaway finished a four-year tour with Brown University in the NCAA before signing as a free agent with the Abbotsford  Heat, the AHL affiliate of the Calgary Flames, in March 2014.  Thirteen months later, he signed a two-year contract with the parent Calgary Flames.  After a pair of one-year extensions as a restricted free agent with the Flames, he reached unrestricted free agency status and signed with the Caps at almost double the salary ($1.5 million) as he earned in his last deal with the Flames ($850,000). 

In his four years with the Flames, Hathaway’s games played rocketed upward.  Fourteen games in his first year, 26 in his sophomore season, 59 games in 2017-2018, followed by 76 games last season.  His offensive production improved commensurately, from 0-3-3 in 14 games in his first season to 11-8-19 last season.  Last season, his ice time was an indicator of team success, too.  This is not unusual for bottom six forwards, who might be expected to get more time in games in which his team is successful, not having to put more ice time burden on point producers in games in which they trail.  Nevertheless, Calgary was 11-1-0 in games in which Hathaway skated at least 13:30 (he averaged 10:32 per game for the season); 4-5-0 in games in which he skated less than seven minutes.

Odd Hathaway Fact…

Calgary was 14-8-2 in 24 games in which Hathaway did not record a shot on goal, 22-9-4 in games in which he recorded one shot, and 11-5-1 in the 17 games in which he recorded multiple shots.  Those are points percentages of .625, .686, and .676, respectively.  Shots seemed not to be a function that contributed much to team results.

Bonus Odd Hathaway Fact…

Garnet Hathaway was the only player in the league last season to skate fewer than 1,000 minutes and record five or more game-winning goals.  He had five in 800 minutes of ice time.

Fearless’ Take…

Hathaway was a persnickety shooter last season (77 shots on goal in 76 games), but he was an efficient one, ranking fifth among Flames’ forwards in shooting percentage (14.3 percent; minimum: 25 games).  While the shooting frequency did not increase above his career numbers (101 shots in 99 games prior to last season), his shooting percentage was almost three times better than the previous season (5.9 percent).

He also found himself in the regular rotation of Calgary penalty killers, ranking fourth among forwards in shorthanded ice time per game (1:42).  His ice time did have a somewhat odd component to it, though.  He was tied for shortest shift times among Calgary forwards, with Mark Janikowski (0:41; minimum: 50 shifts).

Cheerless’ Take…

Of 13 Calgary forwards dressing for more than 25 games last season, Hathaway had the only personal shot attempts-for at 5-on-5 percentage under 50 percent (49.51).  That number was especially poor, compared to forward teammates, in close game situations (47.15 percent, worst in that group of forwards and more than three points worse than James Neal).  He occupies an unremarkable niche in the league.  Over the last four seasons, 13 forwards played in all of them, appeared in 150-200 games and recorded 30-50 points.  It is populated by players such as Matt Read, Derek Grant, Jujhar Khaira, and Curtis Lazar.  The Caps saw something in this player, as a free agent, to offer him a four year deal, twice as long as any of his previous contracts (his entry level deal was for two years).  The Caps were fond of such term this off-season (the same term on contracts for Carl Hagelin and Richard Panik, so at least there is some consistency there.

Potential Milestones:

• 200 career NHL games (175; he needs 25)

The Big Question… Does Garnet Hathaway have a way to stand out in the bottom-six scheme of things?

Out… Brett Connolly, Andre Burakovsky, Devante Smith-Pelly.  In… Richard Panik, Brendan Leipsic, Garnet Hathaway.  The three departed forwards combined for 38 goals last season, 34 in 2017-2018 when the Caps won the Stanley Cup.  The incoming trio combined for 30 goals last season, 17 the year before.  It would be a stretch to think that the incoming trio, even if all of them make the squad and get full-time work, would match the offensive production of the outgoing group, but the team did make an effort to improve the defensive performance of that group and provided visuals of how that might be accomplished by the newcomers.

Hathaway is, in a way, the most intriguing member of the threesome, if for no other reason than his rapid rise in games played and offensive production over his four NHL seasons.  He merits some comparison to Brett Connolly.  Hathaway does not have Connolly’s draft or prospect pedigree, but his early career performance (16-24-40 in 175 games)  is not a lot different from Connolly in his first four seasons (18-16-34 in 139 games).  After scoring nine goals in 71 games with Boston in his fifth NHL season, Connolly found a scoring touch in Washington with 52 goals in 217 games over three seasons.  Hathaway had a career high of 11 goals last season in Calgary, almost tripling his total of the previous year (four).  That was entirely a product of an increase in shooting efficiency (14.3 percent versus 5.9 percent the previous year), but Connolly found his stride in this area in Washington, too (18.1 percent over three seasons versus 9.2 percent over his first five seasons).  If Hathaway continues his early career improvement, he could stand out among the newcomers.

In the end…

Clearly, the Caps saw something the casual fan might not have seen in Garnet Hathaway to enlist him with a four-year contract.  If he continues to improve at something like or even near the pace with which he improved over his first four seasons, he will look like a bargain.  If last season in Calgary was a plateau, then his getting a sweater on a regular basis might be in question.  He will be right in the middle of perhaps the most competitive aspect of training camp, in the odd position of competing among two other players who are newcomers to the club.  It will make for one of the more interesting aspects of training camp, and even the early season, to watch for Caps fans.

Projection: 58 games, 9-12-21, even

Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: Carl Hagelin

Carl Hagelin

“Life is like riding a bicycle. To keep your balance, you must keep moving.”

-- Albert Einstein

In a space of 1,335 days – less than four years – Carl Hagelin was traded from the New York Rangers to the Anaheim Ducks, then to the Pittsburgh Penguins, then to the Los Angeles Kings, and finally last February to the Washington Capitals.  For those of you playing at home, that’s more than 10,000 miles in moving services.  Nothing would prevent the Capitals from shipping Hagelin elsewhere at some point, but he did sign a four-year/$11.0 million deal with the club in June that would keep him in DC through the 2022-2023 season.

Hagelin had a very productive run of games for the Caps, albeit a small population (20 games).  His 0.15 goals per game, 0.40 assists per game, and 0.55 points per game were his best for any club since he was 0.27-0.46-0.73 per game with the Penguins in 2015-2016.  True, the totals were only 3-8-11 in those 20 games, but all 11 points came in his last 16 games after going his first four games as a Capital without a point.  As one might expect, his scoring contributions went hand in hand with team success.  The Caps were 8-0-1 in the nine games in which he recorded a point (6-5-0 when he did not).

On the other side of the ledger, Hagelin was on ice for the fourth-fewest even strength goals per game among the 15 Caps forwards dressing for at least 20 games (0.40).  And, over the 20 games in which he played, he averaged more penalty killing ice time per game (2:21) than did any other Capital forward.  It might not be mere coincidence that the Caps finished the last 21 games of the season (Hagelin was out for a 2-1 loss to the Minnesota Wild on March 22^nd) tied for the third-best record in the league (14-6-1), one standings point behind Tampa Bay and St. Louis. 

Odd Hagelin Fact…

Carl Hagelin made his first postseason appearance with the New York Rangers in 2012.  Since then, no skater in the league has appeared in more playoff games (128).

Bonus Odd Hagelin Fact…

In 546 career NHL games, Carl Hagelin has never recorded a power play assist.  He is one of 18 forwards in NHL history to have played at least 500 games and failed to record a power play assist.

Fearless’ Take…

The Capitals have not lacked for offensive skill in the post-2005-2006 era, but from time to time their forward defense has been thin or inconsistent.  Carl Hagelin provided the strong own-end play in the last quarter of last season to allow the Caps to win games when their offense was sluggish.  In the last 21 games, the Caps held opponents to two or fewer goals 12 times, going 11-1-0 in those contests.  They held opponents to fewer than 30 shots 12 times in that span and went 9-2-1.  His personal shot attempts-for percentage on ice at 5-on-5 (57.49 percent) was third best among forwards in the last 21 games, surpassed only by frequent linemates in that span, Lars Eller (59.53 percent) and Brett Connolly (58.82 percent).

Cheerless’ Take…

Even with Hagelin being a newcomer, the old bugaboo of production drying up among the bottom six forwards in the postseason did not pass him by.  In the seven-game opening round loss to Carolina, he had one point, an assist in Game 7 that the Caps lost in double-overtime.  More troublesome, that personal shot attempts-for on ice at 5-on-5 percentage, which was so impressive down the stretch, was second-worst among forwards in the opening round loss (32.89 percent) and worst among the nine forwards playing in all seven games.

Potential Milestones:

• 600 career NHL games (546, he needs 54)
• 100 games as a Capital (20, he needs 80)
• 100 career goals (93, he needs seven)

The Big Question… Can Carl Hagelin replace enough of the offense lost in the offseason?

Carl Hagelin is not known as a prolific scorer or playmaker, although his per-82 game scoring totals are respectable for a bottom-six forward (14-22-36, plus-14).  The problem for Hagelin at that end of the ice has been that his recent production lags in comparison with those career per-82 game numbers, and his games played have dropped some, in part owing to missing 20 games last season to a sprained knee ligament and a lower body injury late in the 2016-2017 season that cost him the last 16 regular season games on the schedule. 

The key for Hagelin, though, is not necessarily in his ability to replace the raw scoring numbers of, say, a Brett Connolly.  That is highly unlikely to happen (his best goal-scoring season was 2013-2015 and 2014-2015 when he had 17 goals in each season; he has not had more than 14 in a season since).  It will be the net effect of his ability to score at one end and to help prevent scoring at the other, especially killing penalties on a club that finished 24^th in the league with Hagelin playing a quarter of the Capitals’ schedule.

In the end…

Carl Hagelin signed a four-year contract with the Anaheim Ducks in August 2015 but ended up playing for three more teams before that deal expired at the end of last season (Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, and the Caps).  But Hagelin provides things that a team like the Caps in “win now” mode can find valuable.  He has all of that playoff experience, not to mention two Stanley Cups (with Pittsburgh in 2016 and 2017).  He is a dependable defender who brings a speed dimension to the ice.  And the pay cut he took in the new deal with the Capitals (his just-expired deal paid $4.0 million per year compared to the $2.75 million per year in the new deal) might be considered inexpensive compared to some of his salary comparables among forwards (Jay Beagle and Antoine Roussel at $3.0 million; Ryan Reaves at 2.775 million; Joel Armia at $2.6 million).

In the perfect world, Hagelin is the sort of veteran who provides a reliable level of production and performance at both ends of the ice without drama or controversy, and one who will contribute a lot of experience in big games.  He will be the type of whom it might be said, give him a sweater and let him provide solid, consistent, if unspectacular two-way play.  He has had to keep moving on a city to city basis over the last three or four seasons.  This season, his moving will likely be limited to the confines of the rink.

Projection: 74 games, 12-15-27, plus-5

Photo: Patrick Smith / Getty Images

Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: Lars Eller

Lars Eller

“The most successful men in the end are those whose success is the result of steady accretion.”

-- Alexander Graham Bell

After a short stint as a rookie with the St. Louis Blues in 2009-2010 (seven games), Lars Eller was traded to Montreal where he was a consistent player with the faint aura of disappointment.  In five full NHL seasons (not counting the abbreviated 2012-2013 schedule) he played between 77 and 79 games, scored goals totaling in the mid-teens four times, and was a high-20’s point producer.  Enough to hold a job on a regular basis, but not quite what one might expect from a 13^th-overall draft pick (2007).  Consider that the players taken immediately before and after him, defensemen Ryan McDonagh and Kevin Shattenkirk, each had more career points in the NHL through the 2015-2016 season (170 for McDonagh and 242 for Shattenkirk) than Eller (154) despite playing in fewer career games.

Then, Eller was traded to the Washington Capitals in June 2016.  He had another season with a mid-20’s point total, but upped his game to 38 points in 2017-2018 and 36 points last season, becoming an important element in the Caps’ success.  He also missed only a single game in each of his three seasons in Washington, contributing durability to a position (third line center) that had been a source of frustration in production for the Caps for the better part of a decade.

Last season, Eller set personal career highs in assists (23), even strength assists (18), shorthanded goals (two, tying his 2014-2015 total), shots on goal (163), total minutes played (1,339), average ice time (16:32), and takeaways (59).  However, that production faded in the postseason, his numbers dropping off considerably from his superb Stanley Cup season in 2018.  He had only one goal in the seven-game opening round loss to Carolina (he had seven in 24 games in 2018) and only three points (18 in 2018).  His shooting efficiency was off, posting a 9.1 shooting percentage (13.5 in 2018).  And, his production was down despite averaging more ice time (19:00 versus 17:00 in 2018).

Odd Eller Fact…

Last season, 26 centers appeared in at least 50 games, averaged less than 17 minutes per game, and posted at least 35 points.  Lars Eller was one of them.  He had the worst shooting percentage of any member of the group (8.0 percent). 

Bonus Odd Eller Fact…

The Caps were just 4-3-2 in games in which Eller recorded four or more shots on goal, 9-7-0 in games in which he did not record a shot.  There was a happy medium in there somewhere.

Fearless’ Take…

Since the 2005-2006 season, center was a position of considerable churn for the Caps.  Only five centers in those 14 seasons whose primary position was center appeared in more than 200 games.  Once you get past Nicklas Backstrom, who has been a fixture since 2007-2008, and Evgeny Kuznetsov, a full time player since 2014-2015, it has been perhaps the team’s hardest position from which to get consistent production.  Eller has provided that in his three years in Washington, and he is, in fact, third in points per game from the position among this group (0.41), which also includes Dasvid Steckel and Matt Hendricks, trailing only Backstrom (0.98) and Kuznetsov (0.81).  It is also indicative of the churn at the position that Eller, despite having played only three seasons in Washington, is in the top-20 in games played for the club among full time centers.

Cheerless’ Take…

Eller had a weird case of ineffectiveness against Metropolitan Division teams last year.  He was 8-9-17 in 23 games against the Atlantic (0.74 points per game), 2-6-8 in 14 games against the Central (0.57).  He struggled against the Pacific, with two points (both assists) in 16 games, but he was just 3-6-9 in 28 games against Metro opponents last year (0.32). He had just one point in his last six games against Metro opponents last season (a goal against Philadelphia on March 14^th).

Potential Milestones:

• 700 career NHL games (685, he needs 15)
• 300 career points (255, he needs 45)
• 100 points as a Capital (99, he needs one)
• 250 games as a Capital (243, he needs seven)

The Big Question… How will Lars Eller respond to a retooled third line?

Brett Connolly and his 52 goals over three years as a Capital -- 22 goals last season – are in Florida.  Andre Burakovsky and his 36 goals over the last three years – 12 last season – are now in Colorado.  Eller will likely be centering two new wingers – Carl Hagelin over a full season and perhaps Richard Panik, obtained this off-season.  The third line has been a bellweather of sorts for how successful the Caps have been.  When it is clicking and producing, the team is successful.  When it is not, the team struggles.  This is hardly deep analysis; production in depth is preferable and indicative of more team success than the absence of it.  Eller has been the anchor, the most stable component of that line over the last three seasons.  His ability to mesh with new linemates, quickly and effectively, could be an early indicator of how successful the Caps will be in a Metropolitan Division that is better in some places and more balanced overall.

In the end…

It was hardly a secret that for years the lack of depth down the middle was a thorn in the side of the Capitals’ ambitions.  Lars Eller has gone a long way in providing that kind of depth with consistent regular season production.  In a division as perennially difficult as the Metropolitan, and one that might be especially so this season, that kind of production is not a luxury, it is a necessity.

However, there is a darker side Eller’s production with the Caps.  In 2018 he appeared in 24 games, scored seven goals, recorded 18 points, and had three game-winning goals, including an overtime winner in Game 3 of the opening round against Columbus that might have been the most important goal of the season for the Caps.  In 2017 and 2019, though, he dressed for a total of 21 games, went 1-7-8, minus-3, and the Caps won one series.

Stars get the attention, but teams that succeed get contributions up and down the lineup.  Lars Eller has been a solution for the third line center problem in his three seasons here, but it is in his postseason performance that one can see just how thin that line can be between success and disappointment.  In 2014, Eller had five goals and 13 points as the Montreal Canadiens reached the Eastern conference final.  And, of course, there was his seven-goal, 18-point performance in 24 games for the Caps in 2018 as they won the Stanley Cup.  It is that time of year that will be of particular focus as the Caps try to return to the winner’s circle in 2020.  And Eller, a seasoned playoff performer (since his first appearance in 2011, he has more playoff games played that Kris Letang, Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar, Phil Kessel, and Steven Stamkos, for example), certainly seems to have acquired the experience to realize that success once more.

Projection: 81 games, 16-23-39, plus-1

Photo: Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2019-2020 Previews -- Forwards: Nic Dowd

Nic Dowd

“Life grants nothing to us mortals without hard work.”

-- Horace

As replacements go for a bottom-six forward, Nic Dowd did not do a bad job replacing the well-respected Jay Beagle as the Caps’ fourth line center last season.  He did not play as many games as did Beagle in 2017-2018 (before he departed for Vancouver as a free agent), dressing for 64 games versus 79 for Beagle the previous season.  He did outpace Beagle in goals scored (eight to seven), finished one short of Beagle’s assist total (14 to 15), equaled his point total (22), and finished with a better plus-minus (plus-10 to Beagle’s plus-3 in 2017-2018).  It would have been quite a feat to replace Beagle’s faceoff success (a 56.4 percent win percentage with the Caps in his ten years in DC, 58.5 percent in his 2017-2018 season), but Dowd was a fine 51.9 percent for the season, best among all Caps taking at least 100 draws (in fact, the only such Capital over 50 percent).

Dowd’s performance last season was the sort of workmanlike result one expects from a player in his position, but considering that he was on a deal paying $650,000 a year, it was cost-efficient, too.  That he got a raise in a three-year deal at $750,000 a year might be considered something of a bargain, especially compared to the $3.0 million Vancouver will be paying for Beagle’s services over the next three seasons.  It also doesn’t hurt that Dowd is four years younger.

Odd Dowd Fact…

Boyd played 32 games at home, 32 on the road last season.  He was plus-5 at home, plus-5 on the road.  He had seven assists at home, seven assists on the road.  He had ten penalty minutes at home, ten penalty minutes on the road.

Fearless’ Take…

The Caps did pretty well when Boyd was engaged in the “grittership” areas of the game.  In 14 games in which he recorded a hit, a blocked shot, and won at least 50 percent of his draws, the Caps were 10-3-1.  Except for a dry patch in January, a month in which he did not record a point in six games, he was a fairly reliable point-getter.  In the five months in which he dressed for at least ten games, he had at least three points in all of them with a high of eight (1-7-8) in 11 games in December.  His has not been a long career – only four seasons and 195 games – and he will be 30 years old next spring (May), but if there is something to look for with him it is that in each of his two full seasons spend with one team (Los Angeles in 2016-2017 and the Caps last season) he finished with 22 points, despite not playing more than 70 games in either of them.

Cheerless’ Take…

One thing that hurt the Caps as much as anything in the postseason over the last half dozen years was not getting production out of bottom six forwards.  They got it in good supply in their 2018 Stanley Cup run, but it dried up in the 2019 postseason.  Nic Dowd had one point in seven games against Carolina, a penalty shot goal in a 6-0 win in Game 5.  This was an especially disappointing result since he did not go more than two games without a point over his last 18 games of the regular season (3-4-7).  A fourth liner isn’t going to be bearing the scoring load, but it has been an issue with the Caps in the postseason, and it would help if Dowd could replicate some of his regular season effort in chipping in.

Potential Milestones:

• 200 career NHL games (he needs five)
• 50 career NHL points (he needs two)
• 100 career penalty minutes (he needs 25)

The Big Question… Is Nic stuck on “22?”

In three full NHL seasons, Nic Dowd has recorded 22 points twice (only four in 56 games split between Los Angeles and Vancouver in 2017-2018).  He is in what might be thought of as the chronological prime of his career at age 29.  He does not have a lot of mileage, and he plays on a team with enough high end skill and depth on offense to give him opportunities to chip in some of his own.  He was a solid all-around player within his role for the Caps last season.  With as much competition as there is likely to be among the wingers in training camp for bottom-six positions, what emerges might provide Dowd with more and more consistent fourth line support than he had at times last season.  But Dowd was also a healthy scratch 18 times last season, including a seven-times-in-12-games stretch from mid-January to mid-February.  If he can get unstuck in terms of playing time, perhaps he can get unstuck from 22 points as well.

In the end…

Players of Nic Dowd’s sort are not irreplaceable.  On the other hand, sometimes they are bargains.  His cap hit is certainly attractive to a team than needs to shed payroll to get under the salary cap by the start of the season.  His goals/points per game last season (0.13-0.22-0.34) were actually superior than those Jay Beagle had over his ten seasons here (0.11-0.14-0.25).  It might be a reach to think of Dowd as a 30-point players, but more games at last year’s level of production, and if that level of production could be enhanced with stronger linemates, and it is not out of the question.  It is the kind of balance that the Caps rode to success in 2018 and could be a formula to enjoy that kind of success once more.

Projection: 72 games, 8-16-24, plus-8

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America