A TWO Point Night: Washington Capitals -- Game 52: Capitals 5 - Flyers 3

The Washington Capitals paid a visit to an old rival on Thursday night when they faced the Philadelphia Flyers at Wells Fargo Center in a Metropolitan Division matchup. The Caps entered the game as one of the better road teams in the league, sporting a 15-5-4 record at puck drop, the second-best road team in the league by points percentage (.708).  The Flyers went into the game with an 8-11-4 home record, 26^th in the league.  The Caps took an early lead, gave it up late in the third period, but stormed back with three unanswered goals in a span of 2:08 to win going away, 5-3.

First Period

The Caps had a glorious chance in the first minute when Tom Wilson fed Joe Snively with a cross-ice pass that should have been a lay-up, but Snively snapped the puck wide.  The Caps then went a man short when Michal Kempny was sent off for tripping at the 1:41 mark.  The Caps killed the penalty successfully to keep the game scoreless.

The teams went back and forth for more than 15 minutes before the Caps broke the ice, Michal Kempny scoring from long range in the middle of the ice off a feed from Nic Dowd that beat goalie Martin Jones past his blocker.  The teams went to their locker rooms with the Caps up, 1-0.

-- Philadelphia outshot the Caps in the period, 11-8, while the Caps out-attempted the Flyers, 18-15.

-- Michal Kempny and Garnet Hathaway each had two shots on goal to lead the team; Kempny led the team with three shot attempts.

-- There were only 14 faceoffs in the period, the Caps winning eight of them; Lars Eller and Tom Wilson each went two-for-two.

-- Philadelphia was not credited with a high-danger scoring chance in the period, while the Caps had five.

Second Period

Travis Konecny had a chance from the slot in the first minute for the Flyers, but the puck was uncooperative, and his shot sailed wide of goalie Ilya Samsonov.

The Flyers went to a power play when Trevor Van Riemsdyk took exception to a Scott Laughton hit on Kempny.  He and Laughton were hit with five-minute majors for fighting, but van Riemsdyk was also charged with an instigator penalty at 7:37 of the period.  He was also hit with a 10-minute misconduct for good measure.  The Flyers took advantage at the 8:54 mark when Gerry Mayhew was left alone in the left wing circle to take a feed from Oskar Lindblom and snap it past Samsonov on the short side to tie the game at 1-1.

Washington got its first power play of the evening when Isaac Ratcliffe went off for interference at the 9:57 mark.  The Caps went to a 45-second 5-on-3 advantage when Cam Atkinson was sent to the penalty box for delay of game-puck over glass at 11:12 of the period.  An Ovechkin one-timer hit the post to Jones’ right solidly and caromed out.  The 5-on-3 expired, and John Carlson saved a shorthanded goal when he poke checked the puck off Ratcliffe’s stick after he left the penalty box behind the Caps’ defense.  Joe Snively got the Caps back in front in the 5-on-4 portion of the power play when his persistence paid off, taking a rebound of his own shot, easing out to his left, and snapping the puck past Jones’ blocker to make it a 2-1 Caps lead 12:49 into the period.

The Flyers tied the game late in the period. Travis Sanheim finishing a 2-on-1, converting a cross-crease pass from Travis Konecny at 19:01 of the period, to send the teams to the second intermission tied, 2-2.

-- The Flyers outshot the Caps, 12-6, in the period and out-attempted them, 22-16.

-- Michal Kempny and Alex Ovechkin each had five shot attempts through two periods to lead the team. 

-- Lars Eller was 6-for-8 on faceoffs through two periods.

-- Tom Wilson was the only Capital credited with more than one hit through 40 minutes (three).

Third Period

The Flyers went to a power play when Kempny went off for holding at 7:49 of the period, putting the Flyers a man to the good for the third time.  The Caps went two men down when Tom Wilson was boxed for tripping at 8:10 of the period putting the Flyers on a 5-on-3 for 1:39.  No sooner did the Caps burn off both ends of the 5-on-3 that they were awarded a power play of their own.  Scott Laughton went off for tripping at 10:30 of the period.  Washington did not convert, and the teams remained tied.

Nic Dowd and Keith Yandle took coincidental minor penalties for roughing 14:02 into the period to put the teams 4-on-4.  The Flyers took the lead for the first time when Sanheim walked the puck around Nicklas Backstrom and fed Mayhew for a lay-in, fending off Trevor van Riemsdyk’s attempt to tie him up.  The Flyers had the lead, 3-2, at 16:09 of the period.

The Caps tied it 54 seconds later, when Garnet Hathaway got his body in the way of a John Carlson drive just enough to redirect the puck past Jones on the glove side to make it a 3-3 game.  The Caps regained the lead when Carl Hagelin stole the puck below the Flyers goal line and fed Hathaway for a one timer from the slot to beat Jones on the blocker side. 

John Carlson appeared to ice the match when he took the puck in the corner to the right of Samsonov and fired it off the glass and down the ice into the empty cage to make it 5-3 at 19:11.  The goal was reviewed in Toronto to see if Hathaway touched the puck with a high stick that would have negated the goal.  It was ruled that the goal counted, and Carlson was credited with the tally.  The Caps held on to earn the “W,” 5-3.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps scored first for the 35^th time this season, tops in the league.

-- Michal Kempny scored a goal for the first time since potting a pair against Vancouver on October 25, 2019, breaking a string of 60 games without one.

-- The two teams combined for four goals in a span of 3:02 late in the third period, the Caps scoring the last three in a span of 2:08.

-- Garnet Hathaway recorded his first career three-point game and fifth career two-goal game (all on the road).

-- It was also Hathaway’s first career plus-4 game.  It was Carl Hagelin’s second career plus-4 game, first with the Caps.

-- Philly outshot the Caps, 33-25, and out-attempted them, 56-46.

-- Hathaway led the team with four shots on goal; Michal Kempny and Alex Ovechkin each had six shot attempts to lead the team.

-- Martin Fehervary had three hits and four blocked shots.

-- John Carlson led the Caps in ice time with 25:58.

-- Ilya Samsonov stopped 30 of 33 shots, giving him 127 saves on 137 shots faced (.927) over his last four games.

In the end…

The road warriors made it five in a row away from DC.  It was an ugly game, to be sure, and in its ugliness, it’s probably fitting that it was the fourth line that did the most damage – Garnet Hathaway, Carl Hagelin, and Nic Dowd combined to go 2-5-7, plus-11.  Still, grinding out a win after the Caps gave up the lead late in the third period, even against a struggling team, has to be looked at as a positive.  Now, they get a week to iron out problems, get healthy, and get rested before they resume play against the Rangers in New York.  They need to use it wisely.

 

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 52: Capitals at Flyers, February 17th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Fresh off a 4-1 win over the Nashville Predators on their current four-game road swing, the Washington Capitals head to Philadelphia to face the Flyers in Game 2 of the four-game road trip.  The Caps head into this game on a four-game road winning streak, while the Flyers go into the contest with a 2-5-2 record in their last nine home games.

The Flyers lack high-end offensive production – only one Flyer ranks in the top-50 in goals scored (Cam Atkinson tied for 49^th with 17) and no Flyer ranks in the top 60 in points (Atkinson and Claude Giroux are tied for 64^th with 37 points).  They do have balance, though.  Fourteen skaters have double digits in points, five of them defensemen.

Ivan Provorov leads the Flyers defense in goals (five), is tied for the lead in assists (13), and leads in total points (18).  Oddly enough, this is not one of Provorov’s best seasons.  His 0.3 goals per 60 minutes ranks fourth in his six seasons in the league.  His 0.7 assists per 60 minutes ranks fifth.  His 1.0 points per 60 minutes rank fifth as well.  His 4.4 shots on goal per 60 minutes ranks fifth (source: hockey-reference.com).  This despite his averaging 25:07 in ice time per game, a career high.  What might be disturbing about his performance to date, which by the way is hardly the biggest problem this team has, is that his underperformance has been consistent by venue.  Provorov is 2-7-9, minus-3, in 21 home games and 3-6-9, minus-2, in 24 road games.  He has ten minutes of penalties at home and ten on the road.  He is averaging 25:09 in ice time at home, 25:06 in ice time on the road.  His offensive performance has improved of late, though.  After a four-game streak without a point and a minus-6 rating in mid-January, he is 1-3-4, plus-4, in his last eight games.  Provorov is 4-6-10, plus-8, in 25 career games against Washington.

Despite the difficulties this year’s Flyers team has had, they don’t do rookies.  Seven rookie skaters have dressed for the Flyers this season, but with just a combined 59 man-games played.  Forward Morgan Frost has appeared in 27 of them.  And while he is technically a “rookie,” this is his third NHL season.  The 27^th overall pick of the 2017 Entry Draft appeared in 20 games in 2019-2020 and in two games last season.  His two goals and five assists match his offensive production in that first season.  And his is a strange production profile.  He has two goals, both in Flyer losses.  He has seven points, the Flyers with a 2-4-1 record in those games.  He has skated at least 14 minutes in ten games, and the Flyers are 1-8-1 in those games.  He has shots on goal in 18 games, and the Flyers are 2-13-3 in those games.  The Flyers are 2-10-4 in the last 16 games in which he played, but they are 2-0-1 in the last three. If he plays, he will be looking for his first goal on home ice of his career spanning 24 games over his three seasons.  Frost is without a point and has an “even” rating in his only career appearance against the Caps.

Chicken or egg.  Which came first?  Lack of talent in front of him, or his talent overrated?  This is the conundrum that is Carter Hart in goal for the Flyers.  Among 40 goalies with at least 1,000 minutes played this season, Hart ranks 29^th in goals against average (3.96) and 24^th in save percentage (.910).  But here might be the most alarming statistic of all, one that points to a lack of talent (or “give a f***”) in front of him.  Hart is 6-0-0 in the six games in which he allowed one or no goals this season.  He is 3-17-6 in the 26 games in which he allowed more than one goal (3-11-4, one no decision, in that intermediate area in which he allowed two or three goals).  He is getting almost no goal support.  Hart has been consistent in one respect.  He has not been blown out often.  He allowed four or more goals seven times this season in 32 appearances (0-5-2 in those decisions), which is tied for 24^th in the league.  He has been more successful at home on a win-loss basis (6-9-3 at home, 3-7-3 on the road), but his underlying numbers are consistent (2.97/.907 at home, 2.94/.913 on the road).  He goes into this game having allowed five goals in two of his last three games, all of them losses (0-2-1). Hart is 2-3-1, 2.89, .907 in six career games against the Capitals.

1.  Philadelphia has the second-worst winning percentage in the league when trailing first in games (.111/3-21-3).  They are tied for fifth-most instances in trailing first in games (27 times).

2.  In 54 seasons, this Flyers team ranks 51^st in penalties taken per 60 minutes (3.64), a far dry from the Broad Street Bullies days.

3. The Flyers have allowed six shorthanded goals this season, tied for fourth-most in the league.  They also have scored six shorthanded goals, tied for third-most in the league (with, among others, the Caps).

4.  Philadelphia has six wins when out-shot by opponents, tied for fourth-fewest in the league.

5.  The Flyers have lost 16 games this season by three or more goals, tied for second-most in the league (Montreal: 23).

1.  Washington has scored first in 34 games this season, most in the league and four more than Colorado and Vegas.  Unfortunately, their winning percentage in those games (.618/21-9-4) ranks 23^rd.

2.  The Caps have been docked 7:07 in penalty minutes per game, third-fewest in the league.

3.  Washington has allowed seven shorthanded goals this season, second-most in the league (New Jersey: 8).

4.  The Capitals have 13 empty net goals this season.  Only Pittsburgh has more (14).

5.  No team has taken more faceoffs than the Caps this season (2.926) and no team has lost more faceoffs than the Caps (1,553).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Philadelphia: Claude Giroux

Will he, or won’t he?  Be a Flyer at the end of the regular season, that is.  That is the question that follows Claude Giroux around these days.  Only Bobby Clarke has pulled on the Flyers jersey for more games (1,144) than Giroux (988) in team history.  He ranks ninth in goals (289), second in assists (606), second in points (895), eighth in power play goals (84), first in power play points (338), first in overtime goals (11), seventh in game-winning goals (46), first in takeaways since 2005-2006 (513), first among forwards since 2005-2006 in blocked shots (396), and first in faceoff winning percentage since 1997-1998 (55.7 percent; minimum: 100 faceoffs). His imprint on the Flyers' record book is bold and broad.

Giroux is still a productive player at age 34, despite the problems the team around him has.  His 1.1 goals per 60 minutes is his best since 1.2 goals per 60 minutes in 2017-2018), he is still averaging at least 1.5 assists per 60 minutes (12^th consecutive season doing so) and at least 2.5 points per 60 minutes, despite the problems the team around him is having.  He is winning faceoffs at a 60.8 percent clip, a career best (fourth-best in the league this season among 193 players taking at least 100 draws).  He has more than twice as many first goals in games (seven) than any other Flyer (James van Riemsdyk has three).  Odd Giroux fact… despite having 16 goals, second-most on the team this season, none of them are game-winners.  He is one of three players in the league with at least 16 goals and none of them game-winners (Colorado’s Mikko Rantanen (24 goals) and Buffalo’s Tage Thompson (16) are the others).  Giroux is 23-26-49, plus-6, in 54 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Carl Hagelin

Not to the degree Giroux has experienced lately, but there are questions about whether Carl Hagelin will be a Capital at year-end, or if he will be part of a deal to upgrade the roster or get younger in the role he plays in advance of the playoffs.  It has been a frustrating year for Hagelin in the offensive end of the ice, where he just cannot seem to find the back of the net.  His 4.5 percent shooting (three goals on 67 shots) is his worst in four seasons with the Caps. It is unfortunate for him and for the Caps, who are 3-0-0 in the three games in which he has goals and 7-2-1 in the ten games in which he has points.  What is worse, at least in the context of this game, is that while he has been a reasonably consistent performer, home versus road, in his career (55-99-154, plus-48, in 361 home games; 55-85-140, plus-67, in 348 road games), he is just 1-3-4, plus-5, in 23 road games this season, while he is 2-6-8, plus-1, in 26 home games.  Ice time seems not to matter much in terms of the effect of his performance on wins and losses.  The Caps are 14-6-4 in the 24 games in which he skated at least 14 minutes, 12-8-5 in the 25 games in which he logged fewer than 14 minutes.  Hagelin has picked up his point production of late.  After going through an 11-game streak without a point starting on New year’s Eve, he is 1-4-5, plus-3, in his last six games overall.  And, he will be looking to extend his current streak of points in road games to four against the Flyers.  Hagelin is 5-13-18, plus-16, in 45 career games against Philadelphia.

In the end…

Good teams put bad teams away, so this will be a test in that regard to assess whether the Caps are “good” team once more.  They have done a good job being just that at Wells Fargo Arena, where they are 7-1-0 in their last eight visits, outscoring the Flyers, 32-20.  The Flyers are further hamstrung by having so many key pieces on the injured reserve list (see the table above).  That the Caps would have a better record on the road (15-5-4, their .708 points percentage ranked second in the league) than at home (12-10-5, the .537 points percentage ranked 21^st) is one the stranger story lines this season, but it would be welcome if the Caps were to extend their road success to a fifth-straight win.

Capitals 5 – Flyers 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 51: Capitals at Predators, February 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals open a four-game road trip when they visit Bridgestone Arena in Nashville to face the Predators on Tuesday night.  The Caps might be thankful for the travel, given their five straight losses on home ice.  On the other hand, they are 4-1-0 in their last five road games.

The Predators head into this contest having lost three of their last four games overall (1-2-1) but winners of three of their last four home games.  The Preds are a team that, while not having an especially dominating offense (3.08 goals per game/14^th in scoring offense), does have decent balance in their production.  Seven Predators have reached double digits in goals scored, led by Filip Forsberg with 24.  Forsberg is well-known among Capitals fans as one of two first round picks in the 2012 Entry Draft, the 11^th overall pick.  He was traded by the Caps to Nashville in April 2013 for Martin Erat and Michael Latta.  Erat and Latta played in a combined 175 regular season games for the Caps, posting a combined scoring line of 6-38-44, plus-5. 

On the other side of the deal, Forsberg will probably become the leading goal scorer in franchise history this season (he has 202 to David Legwand’s 210).  He is fifth in team history in points (425) and could pass Shea Weber for fourth place by year’s end (443).  Of 140 players to dress for at least 50 games as a Predator, Forsberg ranks fifth in points per game (0.80).  He ranks second in power play goals in team history (52) and sixth in power play points (123).  With eight overtime goals as a Predator, he needs one to tie Legwand for the top spot in team history, and with 39 game-winning goals he needs two to tie Legwand for the top spot in that category.  By season’s end he could become the tenth player in team history to log 10,000 minutes for the club (he has 9,530 minutes).  And this year might be his best yet.  He is averaging a career high 2.3 goals per 60 minutes and a career high 3.8 points per 60 minutes.  His 0.69 goals per game is more than 50 percent higher than his next best season (0.44 in 2018-2019), while his 1.14 points per game is the first time in his ten-year career he averaged more than a point per game.  He has 12 multi-point games among the 35 he has played this season and is 10-7-17, plus-6, since January 1^st.  Forsberg is 8-8-16, plus-8, in 12 career games against the Caps.

It took Matt Duchene a while to warm up to Nashville after signing with the Predators as a free agent in July 2019, but he has had a superb year so far this season.  His 23 goals in 44 games to date (second on the club) exceed the 19 in 100 games he posted over his first two seasons in Nashville.  His 43 points in 44 games top the 42 points he posted in 66 games in 2019-2020, his first season with the Predators.  His team-leading ten power play goals is the first time he reached double digits in that category since he recorded ten as a rookie with the Colorado Avalanche in 2009-2010.  Duchene also has three overtime goals, most on the team, and five game-winning goals (second).  If there has been an odd aspect to Duchene’s game this season, it is in his home-road splits.  He has been a more productive player on the road, where he is 14-11-25 in 23 games with a 22.6 shooting percentage.  At home, he is 9-9-18 in 21 games and shooting 13.4 percent.  He has ramped up his game a bit on home ice of late, though.  Over his last 15 home games he is 7-9-16, and the Preds are 10-5-0 over those 15 games.  Duchene has faced the Caps 18 times in his career and was a “minus” player in 12 of them, a “plus” player only twice.  His career minus-14 against the Caps is his worst against any team in the league, and he has a scoring line of 2-4-6 in those 18 career games against Washington.

Nashville has dressed seven rookie skaters so far this season, and three of them have appeared in more than 40 games – Tanner Jeannot, Alexandre Carrier, and Philip Tomasino.  Jeannot is the leader in the Nashville rookie class with 48 games played and a 14-14-28, plus-8, scoring line.  Nicknamed the “Oxbow Ox” for having been born in Oxbow, Saskatchewan, and for his physical edge, he was signed as an undrafted free agent by the Predators in April 2018.  He is tied for the league lead among rookies in goals (14, with Toronto’s Michael Bunting), ninth in assists (14), sixth in points (28), seventh in plus-minus (plus-8), and tied for second in game-winning goals (three).  He has a healthy lead in credited hits among rookies (159, 26 more than the Caps’ Martin Fehervary) and in penalty minutes (87, 19 more than Montreal’s Michael Pezzetta).  No rookie has taken more penalties than Jeannot (26) or more major penalties (nine), and his net penalties (those drawn less those taken) of minus-9 is worst in the league.  Not that his propensity for taking penalties has hurt the Nashville cause much; the Predators are 13-6-2 in the 21 games in which he logged penalty minutes. Jeannot is 0-1-1, even, in his only career appearance against Washington.

1.  Filip Forsberg has five game-winning goals in 18 home games so far.

2.  No team has allowed fewer first period goals on home ice than Nashville (11, tied with Anaheim).

3.  The Predators have allowed the third-fewest goals at 5-on-5 in the league (30).

4.  Nashville is one of three teams in the league (Florida and Edmonton being the others) not to have lost a game in extra time on home ice this season.

5.  The Predators are the only team in the league to have dressed three rookies for more than 40 games.

1.  In the Caps’ 4-1-0 record over their last five road games, two came by shutout – 2-0 over the New York Islanders on January 15^th and 5-0 over the Dallas Stars on January 28^th.

2.  If the Caps are to win, a two-goal margin seems more likely than others.  The Caps are 6-0 in two-goal decisions on the road this season.

3.  On the other hand, if the result is a one-goal decision, the Caps have not fared well in such circumstances, going 3-3-4 in one-goal games.

4.  Only three teams have taken fewer penalty minutes on the road than the Caps (158) – Dallas (157), Edmonton (153), and Pittsburgh (148).

5.  The Caps and the Penguins are the only teams in the league that have not been assessed a major penalty in a road game this season.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Nashville: Roman Josi

Roman Josi is on a short list of most productive defensemen on offense in the league.  And, he has been doing it for quite a while.  Since 2013-2014, when he went 13-27-40 in 72 games to post his first career 40-point season, he has eight 40-plus point seasons in nine years (he was 8-25-33 in 48 games last season).  Over those nine seasons he ranks second in goals scored among defensemen (120, to Brent Burns’ 146), sixth in assists (339), fifth in points (459), fifth in power play goals (40), tied for eighth in power play points (161), and tied for fifth in game-winning goals (22).  He has also been a leader in categories that get less attention, such as blocked shots (eighth with 1,191) and on-ice goals for at even strength (613, tied for fifth with the Caps’ John Carlson).  He has also been a leader in ice time, averaging 25:25 per game over those nine seasons (fifth), and he is one of three defensemen over that period to average at least 20 minutes per game at even strength, at least three minutes per game on power plays, and at least two minutes per game killing penalties (Ryan Suter and Drew Doughty are the others).  Josi has been a consistent performer by venue this season, going 6-16-22 in 22 home games and 7-18-25 in 24 road games, a split that is in line with his career numbers (home: 69-184-253 in 369 games; road: 61-179-240 in 357 games).  He has been hot lately, going 2-15-17 over his last 14 games.  Josi is 5-8-13, plus-5, in 15 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Tom Wilson

If Filip Forsberg is the cream of the crop among the 2012 draft class (first in goals (202), first in points (425), first in power play goals (52) and power play points (123), first in game-winning goals (39)), Tom Wilson can be said to have outperformed his 16^th overall selection in the same 2012 draft.  Wilson ranks sixth in goals in his draft class (106), 12^th in assists (148), sixth in points (254), tied for ninth in plus-minus (plus-41), tied for ninth in power play goals (nine), tied for fifth in shorthanded goals (six), tied for eighth in shorthanded points (nine), tied for ninth in overtime goals (two), seventh in game winning goals (17), 12^th in shooting percentage (11.6; minimum: 100 games), first in credited hits (1.838), tied for sixth in first goals scored (19), second in empty net goals (11), and tenth in takeaways (236). 

And what has emerged over the last several years is a consistency in his game.  He has averaged at least 1.0 goals per 60 minutes in each of the last four seasons, including this one, averaged at least 1.0 assists per 60 minutes in four of the last five seasons, averaged at least 2.0 points per 60 minutes in each of the last four seasons.  His 0.33 goals per game is within shouting distance of his 0.35 goals per game in 2018-2019, and his 0.72 points per game this season is a career best.  Most notably, he has done it while whittling his penalty minutes, averaging just 1.37 PIMs per game, a 32.8 percent reduction from last year’s 2.04 penalty minutes per game and tied with his 2019-2020 average for a career low.  He has taken penalties in only 14 of 46 games, although the Caps are 10-4-0 in those games.  What might be of note about his penalty minutes is that his high for a game this season came on December 29^th, when he took 19 minutes in a 5-3 win over Nashville.  Wilson is 4-1-5, minus-3, in 15 career games against the Predators. 

In the end…

The Caps are 7-2-2 over their last 11 road games.  Room service has been kinder to the Caps than home cooking over the last two months.  But Nashville has been a particularly difficult place for the Caps to play, given their 5-9-1 (with one tie) in their all-time record in Music City, including a four-game losing streak in Nashville going into this game in which the Caps allowed at least five goals in each game (outscored 24-12 in those four games). That is the fault line for the Caps on which this game rests – a good road record overall in recent weeks versus playing in a venue that has been brutal on them in recent games there.  We will go with the former as the factor that wins out, but you knew we would.

Capitals 5 – Predators 3