Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was - Week 4

Week 4 was an entirely forgettable week for the Washington Capitals, who managed a grand total of two standings points in four games, both earned in extra time games, both of which they went on to lose.

Record (0-2-2)

The 0-2-2 week was the worst for the Caps since they 2ent 0-3-1 in the last week of the regular season last year.  Only six teams in the league recorded fewer standings points than the Caps and all of them played in one fewer game.  The Caps lost both games on home ice for the week (one in overtime) to end a three-game winning streak at Capital One Arena.  They lost both games on the road (one in a Gimmick) to end a 2-1-0 run on the road.  It was a gruesome week that left the Caps in sixth place in the Metropolitan Division, which is fitting, since they rank sixth in both home and road record in the division for the season through four weeks.

Offense: 1.75/game (season: 2.69 / 28th)

The absences to injury are starting to bite.  The Caps had an anemic week, finishing 28^th in the league in scoring offense.  They have now scored two or fewer goals in five of their last six game and scored three in the other contest.  That six-game stretch (1.67 goals per game) is a significant departure from the start to the season that saw them average 3.57 goals per game in their first seven contests.

The Caps got goals from five skaters in Week 4, three of them by Alex Ovechkin, who broke a tie with Gordie Howe as the most prolific goal scorer for a single franchise league history with his 787^th career goal against the Arizona Coyotes to end the week. Dylan Strome, Trevoe van Riemsdy, Anthony Mantha, and Marcus Johansson were the other goal scorers.  Noteworthy for his absence from that last was Evgeny Kuznetsov, who is still looking for his first goal of the season 13 games and 25 shots on goal into the season.  He is now one of five forwards in the league with at least 25 shots on goal and no goals to show for it.  He might take some solace in that the list includes a couple of other highly thought of offensive players.  Mathew Barzal, Teuvo Teravainen, Erik Haula, and Sam Reinhart are the others on the list.  Ovechkin led the team with four points, one of nine Capitals (of 20 to play in Week 4) to record at least one point.

Defense: 2.75/game (season: 2.85 / 11th)

The Caps did not have a bad week on scoring defense overall, the operative word there being “overall,” but we will get to that issue below in “goals by period.”  Their 2.75 goals allowed per game was tied for 12^th-best overall in Week 4.  It was a bit of a waste, though, with the Caps allowing 29.5 shots per game, ninth-fewest in the league, and the seventh-fewest shot attempts allowed at 5-on-5 (39.75).  Beck Malenstyn, who dressed for two games in Week 4, was not on ice for an even strength goal against, the only Capital to do so.  Conor Sheary was the only Capital to have a positive goal differential at even strength for the week at plus-1.  Alex Ovechkin was on ice for the most even strength goals against with four.

Goaltending: 2.51 / .915 (season: 2.56 / .919 / 1 shutout)

By the usual standards, it was a pretty good week for the goaltenders.  Darcy Kuemper got the call in three of the four games and stopped 79 of 86 shots, a .919 save percentage.  Charlie Lindrgren gave the Caps solid minutes and stopped 28 of the 31 shots he faced in a 3-2 overtime loss to the Vegas Golden Knights.  The problem, to the extent there was one, was that save percentages dropped by period -- .951 in the first periods of games (39 saves on 41 shots), .931 in the second periods (27 saves on 29 shots), but then a .881 save percentage in the third periods of games (37 saves on 42 shots).  Not all of that is on the goalies, and it was not really a game-to-game thing (Kuemper was charged with three goals against on ten shots in the 3-2 loss to Arizona to end the week).  The Caps looked to be playing a prevent defense far too much when holding leads, and it burned them consistently, the goaltenders’ numbers suffering as a result.

Power Play: 3-for-13 / 23.1 percent (season: 20.9 percent / 15th)

In the context of league-wide performance, Week 4 was an average week overall for the power play.  The Caps were 15^th overall in power play efficiency and tied for 17^th in power play chances per game (3.25).  Alex Ovechkin had a pair of power play goals, including that 787^th career goal.  Marcus Johansson had the other power play tally.  Ovechkin had three power play points to end the week with a hand in all three man advantage scores for the Caps.  Six other Caps had one point apiece.  On 13 power plays, the Caps managed 15 shots on goal, five of them by Ovechkin and four by the snakebit Evgeny Kuznetsov.  What was odd about the power play was who recorded points among the defensemen.  Not John Carlson, out with an injury, and not Dmitry Orlov, who did get 5:20 in total power play ice time.  The point-getters, each with an assist, were Trevor van Riemdsdyk and Erik Gustafsson, the latter logging 16:58 on power plays, most among defensemen and second most among all skaters.

Penalty Killing 11-for-14 / 78.6 percent (season:  80.5 percent / 14th)

This was the second consecutive week in which the Caps faced double digit shorthanded situations, a bit of disturbing turn, even if they were recorded over four games.  The Caps took six penalties in the third periods and overtime of the four games, which is a bit more disturbing.  It might have been a signal of fatigue for a team that has more than a few older players and that played six games in ten days, four of them on the road.  On the other hand, the Caps did not allow a third period or overtime power play goal

Faceoffs: 128-for-230 / 55.7 percent (45.4 percent / 29th)

On the good side, the Caps’ 55.7 winning percentage on faceoffs was second best in the league in Week 4 (Montreal: 59.5 percent).  On the other hand, the Caps did not win a game.  An instance where it just did not matter much in the larger scheme of things that the Caps were efficient in the circle.  It was a bit deceptive, though, in that while the Caps won a lot more than they lost at even strength (106-for-181/58.6 percent), they were marginally under 50 percent on power plays (11-for-23/47.8 percent) and on penalty kills (11-for-26/42.3 percent).  All four Caps taking at least ten draws for the week finished over 50 percent, led by Dylan Strome at 58.9 percent.  In fact, those four players – Strome, Kuznetsov, Nic Dowd, and Lars Eller – were 50 percent or better individually in each of the three zones for the week with the exception of Dowd, who was 0-for-3 in the offensive zone.

Goals by Period

Six third period goals allowed?  Compare that to the five goals combined that they allowed in the first and second periods, and overtime.  Worse, four of them were scored in the last half of the third period, two of those in the last minute, resulting in the two regulation losses for the week, against Detroit and Arizona.  And still worse, the Caps managed only one third period goal of their own for the week, an Anthony Mantha strike in the fourth minute of the third period of the 3-2 loss to Arizona.  It made for a brutal week in that the Caps did not trail in any game going into the third period and led in two of them, yet they could not close out the deal in any of them

Year-over-Year

The Caps are slipping behind last year’s performance after a comparable number of games, another indicator that the injuries are starting to bite harder.  The nine goals by which they trail last year’s club at the 13-game mark are a reflection of as many forwards out as there are.  They are also allowing five more shots on goal per game, putting increased pressure on goalies, and this might be a reflection of the absences of scoring forwards as well, the Caps putting less pressure (three fewer shots on goal per game than last year at this point).  The Caps are also playing a somewhat less disciplined game at this point, averaging roughly an additional half penalty per game being called on them and a bit more than a minute per game more than last season. 

In the end…

The Caps had, by NHL standards, a manageable week on the schedule in Week 4.  They had Vegas – a very good defensive team to be sure – at home, and they had a weak Arizona team that has allowed a lot of goals on home ice.  And yet they dropped both games.  The three points they left on the table is the difference between sixth place in the Metropolitan Division, where they reside after four weeks, and third place.  And that does not include the point (or two) they left on the table in Detroit by giving up three unanswered goals (one into an empty net) in a 3-1 loss.  It could be a week to regret come spring.

Three Stars

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (3-1-4, minus-2, two power play goals, scored 787^th career goal to take over first place all-time in goals scored for one franchise, 13 shots on goal, 36 shot attempts, 19:48 in ice time)
• Second Star: Dylan Strome (1-2-3, even, nine shots on goal, 16 shot attempts, 58.9 percent on faceoffs)
• Third Star: Trevor van Riemsdyk (1-1-2, even, four shots on goal, eight shot attempts, 2:32 in shorthanded ice time per game)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 13: Coyotes at Capitals, November 5

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to Capital One Arena ice on Saturday night to host the Arizona Coyotes in the first of a four-game home stand for the Caps.  Washington will go into the contest… Arizona, meanwhile, arrives in DC for the first game in a marathon 14-tgame road expedition (the word “trip” doesn’t do it justice) that will not end until December 7^th, when the Coyotes face the Oilers in Edmonton.  Not that home has been kind to the Coyotes, who departed for the road after a ghastly 7-2 loss to the Dallas Stars that featured one of the easiest goals a player will ever score in the NHL. 

Arizona has the fifth-worst record in the league (by standings points) as of Friday morning, a contender in the Connor Bedard Sweepstakes.  They do not come to their low ranking by chance.  The Coyotes have the third-worst scoring defense in the league (4.30 goals allowed per game).  The sieve-like scoring defense is reflected in their goaltending, which had been poor generally.  Of 69 goalies to appear in at least one game this season, Karel Vejmelka ranks 60^th in goals against average (3.97) and 43^rd in save percentage (.895) in seven appearances.  He has been the better of the two Coyote goalies to see action.  Connor Ingram is 65^th of 68 netminders is goals against average (4.42) and 60^th in save percentage (.874) in four appearances.

Vejmelka, who is in his second season with the Coyotes, was a fifth-round pick by the Nashville Predators in the 2015 Entry Draft, the 12^th of 24 goalies selected in that draft.  He was never signed by the Predators and was allowed to go into the free agent market in 2021.  He signed a one-year deal with Arizona for $925,000 in May 2021 and made his debut with the Coyotes in following fall.  In 2021-2022 he was 13-32-3, 3.68, .898, with one shutout.  The Coyotes saw enough in his play to sign him to a three-year/$8.175 million contract last March.  His performance to date this season had been difficult.  In those seven appearances so far, he allowed five or more goals three times, and in one other he allwed four goals in 48 minutes of play, all four of those appearances ending in regulation losses.  Oddly enough, he earned points in each of the three games in which he allowed three or fewer goals (2-0-1).  Ominously for the Coyotes in the game at Capital One Arena on Saturday is that in four road games, his save percentage was under .900 on three occasions.  Vejmelka has been a bad luck goalie in his brief experience against the Caps, appearing twice last season and allowing only one goal in each game.  But the Coyotes lost both by 2-0 scored (each game featuring a Caps empty net goal for the final margin); he is 0-2-2, 1.02, .966 in those two career games against Washington.

Arizona’s scoring offense has not been great, but their 24^th-ranked offense (2.80 goals per game) is better than Washington’s (25^th-rnked at 2.75 goals per game).  Lawson Crouse has had a respectable start in leading the Coyotes with five goals in the team’s first ten games.  It is not a surprising start for the seven-year veteran, who had a career year with the Coyotes last season, going 20-14-34 I 65 games.  Last year’s breakthrough was a long time in coming, though, for a player who was a first round pick of the Florida Panthers (15^th overall) in the 2015 Entry Draft.  He never suited up for the Panthers, traded to Arizona in August 2016, barely a year after he was drafted, with Dave Bolland for third round draft pick in 2017 and a conditional second round draft pick in 2018.  He made his debut with Arizona in 2016-2017 season and posted 36 goals and 76 points in 281 games over five seasons before his breakthrough performance last season.  Crouse comes into Saturday’s game on a three-game goal scoring streak (all at home), although the Coyotes won just one of those three games.  He does have a goal in the last road game he played, a 6-3 Arizona win on October 25^th.  In six career games against the Caps, he is 2-1-3, plus-1.

Once upon a time, Shayne Gostisbehere was thought to be the next big thing among offense-minded defensemen.  As a rookie, he was 17-29-46, plus-8, in 64 games with the Philadelphia Flyers.  He was a first-team all-rookie selection and finished second in the voting for the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie in 2015-2016.  He slipped a bit in his sophomore season, going 7-32-39, minus-21, but it was after that season that Gostisbehere was rewarded with a six-year/$27.0 million contract.  His numbers rebounded with a 13-52-65, plus-10 season in 2017-2018.    But then, his numbers took a tumble, in part due to intermittent absences due to injury.  Over his next three seasons with the Flyers, he was 23-46-69, minus-26, in 161 games. It was after the 2020-2021 season in which he went 9-11-20, minus-2, in 41 games, that he was traded with a second round draft pick in 2022 and a seventh round draft pick in 2022 to the Arizona Coyotes for essentially nothing under the often used phrase, “future considerations.” 

The change of scenery was kind to Gostisbehere, who was 14-37-51 (albeit with a minus-23 rating) last season, he first in Arizona.  He led all Coyote defensemen in goals, assists, points, power play goals (two), power play points (19), while adding an overtime goal and two game-winning goals and finishing second in ice time among blueliners (22:11).  But the combination of heavy ice time and laboring for a struggling team had its downsides.  Gostisbehere was on ice for 87 even strength goals against, tied for tenth most among 345 defensemen to see time in the NHL last season.  He is off to a start this season that resembles last season – 4-4-8 in goals, assists, and points; but he has a minus-10 rating in ten games, and only three defensemen among 241 to play so far have been on ice for more even strength goals than Gostisbehere’s 16.  Gostisbehere is 2-8-10, minus-6, in 24 career games against the Capitals.

1.  When Arizona finally returns home on December 9^th against the Boston Bruins, they will have played 20 of their first 24 games on the road.

2.  Arizona’s offense has been reasonably competent on the road so far, averaging 3.17 goals per game, 14^th in the league in scoring offense.

3.  The Coyotes’ scoring defense on the road has been another matter entirely, the 4.83 goals allowed being the second-worst scoring defense in the league (Anaheim: 5.00 goals allowed per game).

4.  One thing Arizona has done very well on the road is convert power play chances.  Their 29.6 percent power play in road games ranks third in the league.  And, they lead the league in power play chances per game on the road (4.50).  They have eight power play goals in six road games, most in the league.

5.  All four losses on the road for Arizona have come by three or more goals.  And, they allowed six goals in each of those four losses.

1.  The Caps have a history of success against this team when scoring first at home.  They are 17-2-1, with two ties, when scoring first against the Coyotes (in all their incarnations) in Washington.

2.  Only five teams in the league have a worse penalty kill on home ice than Washington (70.0 percent).

3.  Only one team in the league has scored fewer first period goals on home ice than the two first period goals the Caps have in five home games (Carolina: one in three home games).

4.  Washington has the third-fewest power play chances per game on home ice (2.80), which seems a bit of a waste, given that the Caps have the tenth-best power play on home ice (28.6 percent).

5.  The Capitals average 33.82 hits per 60 minutes on home ice, the third-highest number in the league.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Arizona: Liam O’Brien

Caps fans will remember that Liam O’Brien got his start in the NHL when he signed as an undrafted free agent with the Capitals in October 2014 after an invitation to join the club in training camp for the 2014-2015 season.  His performance in training camp that year was impressive enough for the Caps to sign him to a three-year/$1.925 million entry-level contract.  That impressive performance in training camp was something O’Brien found difficult to repeat, finding it difficult just to get into the lineup in those firs three years with the Caps.  Over those three years he appeared in a total of 14 games, going 1-1-2, plus-4, with 23 penalty minutes.  The Caps did re-sign him to a one-year/$650,000 deal in 2017-2018, which bought the Caps three games, no points, an even rating, and five penalty minutes.  He would sign two more on-year deals with the Caps, but he did not dress for the parent club and left the organization after the 2019-2020 season as a free agent.  O’Brien signed with the Colorado Avalanche for the 2020-2021 season, a one-year/$700,000 contract, and played 12 games, going 0-3-3, plus-1. 

It was at that point that O’Brien found himself i Arizona, signing a one-year/$750,000 contract for the 2021-2022 season.  He appeared in a career high 39 games, going 2-1-3, plus-1, and amassing 106 penalty minutes.  No player in the league appearing in more than 35 games had a higher penalties taken per 60 minutes (4.22).  O’Brien signed a two-year/$1.55 million deal with the Coyotes last March. This season, in the first year of that contract, he has appeared in all nine games for Arizona, going 0-1-1, even, with 16 penalty minutes, and he is averaging a career high 12:13 in ice time per game.  O’Brien is more of a throwback as a physical player (or “enforcer,” if you prefer); he has three goals and nine points in 77 career games six seasons in the NHL, but he has 18 fights over that span.  He has faced the Capitals only once in his career with no points, an even rating, and two penalty minutes.

Washington: Joe Snively

Injuries early in the season required the Caps to dip into their depth at the forward position, which has given players like Joe Snively an opportunity to show that they merit longer stretches wearing an NHL, instead of an AHL jersey. When presented with an opportunity last season, he put up good numbers in limited action – 4-3-7, plus-3, in 12 games – before a wrist injury cut short his season. 

Perhaps it is the sophomore jinx, or perhaps it is result of lingering effects from the surgery he had to repair his injured wrist, but Snively has not had a strong start to this season (no points in four games with a minus-1 rating).  On the other hand, his numbers after his first four games last season were only a bit more impressive – 0-2-2, plus-3.

With the Caps missing as many forwards as they are, especially top-six forwards with heavier scoring responsibilities, they might be counting on Snively’s history carrying forward into this season and find the possibility of an injection of scoring ability a reason to get him into the lineup.  After all, he did post 58 goals in 129 games in four years at Yale University, and he had 35 goals in 119 games over four seasons with Hershey in the AHL before being elevated to the Caps. It is the supplemental scoring of the sort Snively can provide that the Caps need to get out of their recent slump and get back in the thick of things in the Metropolitan Division.  It is that absence of scoring (and not just by Snively), to an extent, that has contributed to a 1-2-1 record for the Caps with Snively in the lineup.  Making the most of the opportunity he has been presented and Capitals success would seem to be linked for the time being.  Snively has never faced the Coyotes.

In the end…

Losing streaks at this time of year can make things very difficult for teams trying to stay close to the leaders in their respective divisions.  Teams are saddled with having to climb their way upward and over teams in what could be a weeks or months long process to return to playoff competitiveness.  In other words, you cannot win a Stanley Cup in November, but you can lose one if you fall too far behind.  The Caps are not yet in that “urgent” state as a result of the 0-1-2 streak they bring into this game; they are only four points out of first place in the Metropolitan Division and two points out of fourth place.  But they cannot be leaving points on the table against poor-to-mediocre teams.  That is what makes this game important, to halt the losing momentum and to bank points against an inferior team.  Losing this game on home ice with a more difficult stretch of the schedule looming could make November a difficult month to recover from. Arizona has allowed six goals in each of their four road losses.  We will go with that.

Capitals 6 – Coyotes 2