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The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR -- Caps vs. Penguins, December 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! . . . The Special “Death to Penguins” edition . . .

For tonight’s game The Peerless brings you “What they said, what they meant.” Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin sat down for a teleconference with the NHL in advance of this game, and the kids displayed their growing comfort with krapola when asked questions about the rivalry. The Peerless, in his never-ending search for truth, ferrets out what was really said (actual Q and A courtesy of Kukla's Korner; "what they meant" is a product of this author's alcohol-addled fantasy) . . .

Q. I’d like to ask both players. How much do you guys get up when you face one another in a game? Do you guys consider that like a prime game for both of you just to show what you can do, or show each other what you can do?

What Sidney said . . . “I don’t know. I think it’s always a little bit more motivating. You know, from my side I think that it’s built up so much that, in a way you want to respond and make sure you have a good game. But at the end of the night the win is most important. That’s the way I looked at it. But there’s no doubt there seems to be more emotion and intensity when we play each other.”

What Sidney meant . . . “pfft . . . what a tool.”

What Alex said . . . “I think Sidney is right. It’s important for us, for our team, to win the game. Of course, Sidney and me want to score goals and have some points, but it’s important for us to win the game.”

What Alex meant . . . “yup, a real tool.”

Q. Just wanted to know, for the both of you, how different is life in your second year now that you’re not rookies anymore?

What Sidney said . . . It’s not a whole lot different. I think there are more familiar faces, which is nice, and not as many new buildings. So I think that’s just nice part about not being a rookie. You’re not surprised by as many things. Just a little bit more comfortable and you know, other than that I don’t think there’s been a lot that’s changes.

What Sidney meant . . . “the same puckbunnies show up after every game.”

What Alex said . . . Yeah. I just feel for comfortable right now. We know the league and we know the rules and we now how good team—you know, we know how to play against some teams. Just I think right now we know the league better than first year. For me right now I know the league and the team and I feel more comfortable.

What Alex meant . . . “except for those damn sticks…”

Q. For Alex, how do you feel about your friend Malkin being involved in this rivalry now, too?

What Alex said . . . I’m really happy for him, because he is a great player and he’s a great guy. He’s a very good person and he’s unbelievable player. His team is lucky team to have Sidney, Malkin. They were drafted and they are good players and probably will be best team in the league. But we have couple guys, too.

What Alex meant . . . “f*** him.”

Q. This goes to Sidney. Talk about the hype coming into last season, your rookie year, and all the, I guess, advice you got. What kind of advice do you pass on to Malkin this season?

What Sidney said . . . “To be honest, I think the main thing for me coming into last year was just to worry about playing hockey. I didn’t really—to be honest with you, I didn’t really pass any advice to him. I think everyone has their own way of handling things and dealing with it mentally. And for him he had been through so much just to get here, so I think hockey was the relaxing part for him. That’s the way I looked at it. You’d have to ask him how he handled it, but I think it was just important for him to come here and play hockey.

What Sidney meant . . . “run!...save yourself!!”

Q. Alex, what do you feel has been your biggest—I guess your biggest thing you’ve had to get used to with the new rules and everything this season? . . . What have you had to adjust to the most this year?

What Alex said . . . Playing hockey, enjoy. You know, because I think me and Sidney, lots of young guys who play, should enjoy the time, because it was our dream. It doesn’t matter what rules. If it’s old or new rules, we just want to play hockey and do best what we can.

What Alex meant . . . “lame questions like this.”

Q. One question for Sidney and one for Alex. Sidney, first of all, I’m just wondering with you and Malkin, obviously the two of you are the face of hockey or the future in Pittsburgh, if not for the whole league. How have the two of you meshed together? And how has it been being with him so far this year?

What Sidney said . . . It’s been great to be able to play with someone that’s that creative and has that much fun out there on the ice. It’s a lot of fun. I think that myself I’m improving just from playing with him. He’s a fun guy to play with and even just to be on the ice practicing with every day. He’s still learning English so it’s hard to communicate, but we’re doing our best. And I think he’s coming along as the season goes on, which is good. It’s just been fine. I think that myself and him we’re lucky we have guys like Staal and Fleury. It’s been a lot of fun so far.

What Sidney meant . . . “I thought this was about me.”

Q. Alex, the hit on Daniel Briere, you said that it was an accident. I’ve only seen the replays, but I’m puzzled by that. When you say that it was an accident, do you mean that you didn’t mean to push him as hard as you did, or it just—the whole contact completely was an accident?

What Alex said . . . Well, my contact was not accident. I wanted to hit him. But if you see replay, I don’t hit him, you know, hard. I just saw his back and I just hit him. I don’t want give him injury or do some injury to him. I’m not the player that—we’re both are players, and I know we both want to play hockey. I don’t want to do some injury to him. Doesn’t matter Briere or some different player.

What Alex meant . . . “after all this crap, I wish I’d sent him into the next time zone.”

Q. This question is for Alex. There’s been a lot of talk in town about your hit on Daniel Briere on Saturday night. First, why did you do it? And second, if that happened to you, how would you have liked your teammates to react? And how would you react?

What Alex said . . . Well, because it was a game, I tell you right it was last question. I don’t want to hit him bad. I just want to hit him—but he turned and I don’t have time to do something. I think the guys, Buffalo teammates, when I hit Briere all the guys come to me and try fight or try to do something with me. But I think my teammates do the same. I know it was not a good hit, but I tell you I don’t want to do that. It was just game.

What Alex meant . . . “who are you, Ken Starr?”

Q. He had just dumped the puck into the zone, and it was a good split second before you hit him. Did that cross your mind at all? Why do you hit a guy that doesn’t have the puck that’s going to leave the ice after his shift?

What Alex said . . . I can’t answer this question, because it was a game. You know, I don’t know.

What Alex meant . . . “you’re about this far from me shoving a stick up your ass and breaking it off at the blade.”

Q. You guys have been linked ever since last year started. Do you have any sort of a friendship away from the rink? Do you guys talk or compare notes at all away from the arena at all?

What Sidney said . . . We don’t really keep really keep in touch other than when we see each other when we play each other. We’ve done a few things off the ice and ran into each other. But I think outside of that it’s just a relationship where we see each other when we play.

What Sidney meant . . . “we send perfumed notes to one another and talk about clothes and other stuff . . . geez, get a grip, azzhole.”

Q. Alex, have you played golf since the hole-in-one?

What Alex said . . . No.

What Alex meant . . . “No.”

Q. Calling it quits there?

What Alex said . . . Yeah.

What Alex meant . . . “Yeah”

Q. Can you turn back the calendar to this time last year. Compare the player you were then to the player you are now. And how much more improving can you do? That’s for both of them.

What Sidney said . . . I think for me, I think experience is something that, you know, I can look back and say that I’m more experienced a lot more knowledgeable about everything that has to do about playing the game. So I think I have a lot to learning and a long ways to go, but I think I can definitely bring that from last year. I’m just more aware. I think I’ve tried to become a guy that’s going to shoot the puck more often when I get the chance just to keep guys honest. I’m always learning, always trying. Those are the a couple things I’ve tried to improve on this year.

What Sidney meant . . . “I was king of all hockey then, I am king of all hockey now…”

What Alex said . . . For me, this year, I try to play more defensively. I have talk with my coach a lot and he tell me, “I don’t care about how we play offensively. I care about how he play defensively.” I know I play right now better defensively. I think all my teammates and all my coaches, they my fans, see it and they know I try to play more defensively like last year.

What Alex meant . . . “Glen’s a funny guy.”

Q. For Sidney, today they announced the roster for the Canadian World Junior Team, and amazingly you were still eligible for that. How distant does that seem to you now a few years into the NHL? What did the experience of playing for the national team do for you as a player?

What Sidney said . . . It’s an amazing experience. I think it is for anyone. I think for me I was lucky enough to play on the team I did my second year. We were just so deep and so good. And I think I improved over three weeks or a month just from playing with those guys. They were NHL caliber guys. If you look at the guys on that team there’s an awful lot that are in the NHL already. That was a special group, and having Coach Sutter coach our team was great as well. The on-ice part was an experience in itself, and I became a better player for it. And being part of the whole experience as far as having Canadian fans follow that it was so big and something I grew up watching. I wanted to be a part of it. It was a special experience, and no doubt it helped me a lot.

What Sidney meant . . . “more endorsements!”

Q. Sidney, if you could tell me one thing you admire most about Alex’s game, and Alex I’m going ask you the same question about Sid.

What Sidney said . . . I’d say his goal-scoring ability. I don’t think you can really teach anyone that. It’s just a knack. It’s an ability. You know, he definitely has that. So it’s exciting to watch when someone can score goals like that.

What Sidney meant . . . “those yellow skatelaces”

What Alex said . . . Well, I think how he control the puck. How he find his partners. It’s unbelievable.

What Alex meant . . . “hey, I’m the one with the Calder Trophy”

As for the game . . .

The Penguins and the Caps are two teams joined at the hip by history and experience. The Penguins’ dominance of the Caps in playoffs is well-documented (and sure won’t be recited here); the clubs had similar needs in terms of having to jettison payroll in recent years; each conducted a “fire sale” of high-priced personnel; one of the all time great Pens ended up in Washington (although one year of Frantisek Kucera never gave fans a true picture of his sublime talent), both are in the midst of a rebuild with a promising core of prospects. The Penguins are probably one-up on the Caps – a product of an impartial (wink wink) lottery – in that they won the rights to Sidney Crosby. But the Caps might have a deeper prospect pool, thanks to some astute (no, really) horse-trading by general manager George McPhee.

What all this means are that these are two teams in similar circumstances, being within three points of one another (the Penguins having a game in hand). The Penguins, for all their vaunted offensive potential, are in the middle of the pack offensively – they are 13^th in goals-per-game, 14^th in 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio, 14^th on the power play. They have 26 goals in their last ten games, nine of them by Sidney Crosby (4-7-11, +2) or Evgeni Malkin (5-7-12, -1). One might expect that kind of production from the precocious pair, but there are two other Penguins who bear watching. Colby Armstrong is 4-2-6, +5 in the last ten games, and Eric Christensen (recalled from Wilkes-Barre/Scranton on November 22^nd) is 3-1-4, -1 in his last five.

Defensively, the Penguins are better than they have been in the past couple of years, but that isn’t to say they are in an elite class. They are 21^st in goals-against per game, 22^nd in penalty killing. Marc-Andre Fleury is giving some indications that the club wasn’t completely out of its mind in selecting him with the first pick in the 2003 entry draft. Fleury is 16^th among goaltenders playing more than 15 games in goals-against-average, 17^th in save percentage. He is 5-2-3 in his last ten games, 2.77, .895. Ominously for the Penguins, though, he is 1-2-1 in his last four (including an abbreviated appearance against New Jersey, where he was credited with the loss), 3.86, .841. Couple this with the Penguins struggling recently in killing penalties (38-for-51 in their last ten games -- 74.5 percent), and this is perhaps their most vulnerable area.

The Caps come into this game winner of five of their last six games, outscoring their opponents 28-20. In that run, the Caps have rediscovered penalty killing . . . 32 of 36 (88.9 percent) has gone a long way to alleviating the pressure from goalies Olaf Kolzig (4-1-0, 3.40, .910 in this six game run) and Brent Johnson (1-0-0, 3.00, .917). The Caps have been dominating offensively. In their five wins, only one was of the one-goal variety, and in only one of those wins did they score fewer than five goals (four, against Dallas).

But all of this is window dressing . . . the “story” is the matchup. Here is the “tale of the tape” . . .

Alex Ovechkin:

Goals: 18 (T-3^rd)
Assists: 17 (T-38^th)
Points: 35 (T-12^th)
PP goals: 7 (T-12^th)
GWG: 4 (T-2^nd)
PIMs: 34 (T-82^nd)
Hits: 63 (T-26^th)
Ice time: 20:48/game (21^st among forwards)
Takeaway/Giveaway ratio: 31/38
Gear: CCM Sports
Websites: http://www.aimpages.com/alexovechkin/profile.html, http://en.ccmsports.com/community/players/ovechkin/

Sidney Crosby:

Goals: 13 (T-27th)
Assists: 26 (T-3rd)
Points: 39 (T-4^th)
PP goals: 4 (T-53rd)
GWG: 2 (T-37th)
PIMs: 24 (T-172^nd)
Hits: 16 (T-372nd)
Ice time: 20:34/game (T-24th among forwards)
Takeaway/Giveaway ratio:11/20
Gear: Reebok
Websites: http://crosby87.com/ (coming soon), http://en.rbkhockey.com/sidney360/

“Story,” my pasty white ass . . . the story is the game and who wins . . .

Caps 5 – Penguins 3.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Flyers

And order is restored . . .

It wasn’t the prettiest of contests, but a 5-3 win in Philadelphia after getting hammered the previous night is a big wet kiss of success, another rung up on the ladder, another step forward, another something something toward making the playoffs.

Once more, balance was the key word. Five different Caps scored goals – Alex Ovechkin, Brooks Laich (that’s two in three games…do we call him, “Gretz?”), Chris Clark, Bryan Muir, and Matt Pettinger. In goal, Brent Johnson wasn’t especially sharp – especially in the fun house of the second period – but he was when he had to be late in the contest, when he stopped ten shots in the 11:29 between what proved to be Bryan Muir’s game-winning goal and Matt Pettinger’s slam-the-door power play goal at the end.

Other stuff . . .

-- Simon Gagne scored a goal at 7:47 of the second period. Steve Eminger, who was on the ice for that goal, didn’t get another shift for almost twelve minutes . . . injury, equipment, or message?

-- Petr Nedved and Kyle Calder distinguished themselves last night for the Flyers. With a -2 and a -3, respectively, both now stand at -20 for the year. Fear not, Flyer fans . . . Joni Pitkanen (who didn’t play) is right there at -18, and R.J. Umberger is lurking at -13 along with Derian Hatcher at -12. These five players – a combined -83 for the year (now that would be some starting five . . . the Flyers could be down a touchdown after the first shift with this quintet out there) – are 1st, 1st, 4th, 8th, and 10th in the league in worst plus/minus.

-- John Erskine had another solid game . . . +1, four hits, four blocked shots.

-- If you haven’t been paying attention, Matt Pettinger leads the league among players with at least 20 games played in shooting percentage, 10 goals on 37 shots (27.0 percent). He was 1-for-2 last night.

-- Monday will be game 30 on the Caps schedule. It also will be another ten-game chapter in the body of consistent work of Alex Ovechkin. In his ten game splits to date, Ovechkin is 6-4-10, 7-6-13, and 5-7-12 (so far, with the Pittsburgh game Monday night to go). Ovechkin has not scored fewer than ten points in any ten-game split thus far in his career. That a second year player can sustain this consistent level of performance – game in and game out – is astonishing.

-- The Caps are 7-1-1 when Matt Pettinger scores a goal.

-- Last night, the Caps won their 13th game in their 29th game played. Last year, the Caps won their 13th game on New Year’s Eve (36th game). In 2003-2004, they won their 13th game on January 11th (43rd game). Progress? You be the judge.

Your OMMAA for November!!

OK, so I'm late . . . it's a busy time of the year, even for those of the Peerless Persuasion. But it gives The Peerless great pleasure to bestow the hallowed and cherished "Old Man's Major Awad Award to . . .

John Erskine!

A player who fairly oozes "ornery," Erskine has been a pleasant surprise for the Caps. Not only has he appeared to allow Steve Eminger to find his legs, but Erskine has been a stout defender in his own right. For November, he was 0-2-2, but tallied 42 PIMS in 11 games and averaged 17-and-a-half minutes of ice time.

His menacing look, disheveled hair, one-size-too-small helmet, and his on-ice contributions to a Caps team that find itself squarely in the playoff hunt combine to make him the clear choice for the November OMMAA.

Display it proudly John-E! . . . You've earned it!

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE MORNING AFTER AIR!!

The Morning After is ON THE AIR!!!

OK, so we’re combining “the morning after” with the preview because, frankly, there are some games you say, “OK, we sucked, move on.” For two periods last night, the Caps played one of those games where you said, “this just isn’t our night.” While the Anaheim Ducks gave no indication they’d ever let the Caps score in those two frames, it wasn’t like they were dominating at the other end, either. A fluky first goal (was Stephane Auger credited with an assist?), an Alphonse-and-Gaston, “I got it, you take it” giveaway goal delivered with care, courtesy of Olie Kolzig, and a pinball goal, and it was 3-0. The third period . . . well, chalk that one up to suckitude. It was a brutal night all around, but the first line really took it in the teeth. -11 for the Ovechkin-Zubrus-Clark trio with one point (Ovechkin – an assist -- with neither Clark nor Zubrus on the ice). If there was one Cap who had anything approaching a decent game, it was Boyd Gordon. He wasn’t on the ice for any of the horror that was the six goals against, and he won 9 of 13 faceoffs. The only guy with no Duck poop on his jersey.

All that means is that the club had better be in an ornery mood tonight when they visit the Flyers in South Philly. For once, the Caps should be a favorite in one of their least favorite places to play. The Flyers are probably going to be in an ornery mood of their own, coming off the wrong side of a home-and-home sweep at the hands of the New Jersey Devils (a 4-3 OT loss in Philly and a 2-0 shutout in the swamp).

While they are playing better than was the case in their horrific start, Philadelphia shouldn’t be confused with “good.” The Flyers are 7-10-3 under John Stevens since he took over for Ken Hitchcock on October 22^nd. Statistically, they remain the worst defense in the league, giving up a league-high 3.64 goals per game. It’s not as if that is the product of a run-and-gun style, either. The Flyers are 25^th in scoring. They are the worst 5-on-5 team in the league, giving up almost twice as many goals in that situation as they score themselves. It approaches a betting certainty that they will lose if scored on first – they’ve won once in 15 such situations.

Here is the scope and breadth of the Flyers’ suckitude . . . only one player who has dressed for at least half their games has better than a -3 rating – Randy Robitaille. Only five players are better than -5. They have six players with -10 or worse, with Joni Pitkanen "leading" the way with a -17 (Steve Eminger fans, take note – Pitkanen was taken in the same 2002 draft, eight spots higher), although Alexandre Picard is doing a fine Bill Mikkelson imitation with a -10 in only 14 games.

The Flyers are also generous with the puck. No Flyer who has played more than five games – none – has more takeaways than giveaways. And some of the ratios are jaw-dropping . . . Peter Forsberg: 6 takeaways, 33 giveaways . . . Derian Hatcher: 8/29 . . . Pitkanen: 10/29 . . . Geoff Sanderson: 11/27. Only Simon Gagne is even at 20/20.

If they do one thing well, it’s kill penalties – 90.9 percent at home this year (third in the league).

All this says that this is a game the Caps should, ought to, had better win. It’s one thing to hork up a hairball against the best team in the league – and Anaheim demonstrated that in spades – but to come up flat in a game like this after recently having a four game winning streak would make much of that winning effort for naught. It would leave the Caps with a record of 4-5-1 in their last ten games.

This is a “determination game.” If the Caps come out determined to climb all over the Flyers from the drop of the puck, it could put the home club back on their heels and put the crowd in a surly mood. And, given the Flyers’ inability to show much by way of being a comeback team, ending the competitive portion of the game early is likely to be the result of a fast start. One of the things that has emerged over the past few weeks with the Caps in terms of their character is an ability and a willingness to play with an edge. Given the spanking they got last night, it would suit them well to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight. Teams that aspire to bigger things make teams pay the next game for whoopings they took in the last game. The Caps are closer to being serious about those aspirations . . . a lot closer than are the Flyers.

Caps 5 – Flyers 1.

O-duck-in

A holiday treat that consists of a Cap . . . stuffing a duck . . . into the boards.

Shots

I was interested in this morning's Washington Post story about Olaf Kolzig. What interested me was the accompanying graphic (above).

I thought to myself, Gee, top ten in save percentage, and he's still allowing 21 percent more goals (on a per 60-minute basis) than the next highest goalie in that list. Why?

That 35.1 number.

He might be God between the pipes, but at this level of play, there isn't a lot of difference among goalies in terms of the percentage of shots they save (in this list, Huet is about 1.5 percent "better" than is Kolzig). For Kolzig to have a GAA as good as Toskala (the best GAA in this list), he'd have to have a save percentage of .944.They can talk until the cows come home about how he plays better with a higher volume of shots. The numbers bear out that he saves a higher percentage of shots in a high shot-volume game. But in the end, the game has a scoreboard, and the currency is goals. His GAA is 3.00, significantly poorer than the rest of the goalies on this list. It's asking a lot of him that he's likely to have to play better than he has for the Caps to have a real shot at a playoff spot, given the volume of shots he sees. This club needs to find a happier medium.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Ducks, December 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! . . .

Geez, four in a row. The Peerless is giddy with joy, verklempt in appreciation . . . or perhaps it’s just gas.

All this winning makes The Peerless want to dip into the ol’ mail bag and take the pulse of a joyous Capitals Nation and the hockey world . . .

Dear Peerless,

I was thinking, now that the Caps are winning, the perfect holiday gift for every member of your family would be Caps tickets or Caps gift ticket certificates. Great seats are available in all sections . . . in fact, some whole sections are available, so cll a Caps ticket representative now . . . please? Pretty please?? Plee-hee-heezzzze . . . sniff-sniff.

There, there, Ted . . . things will get better. Truth be told, folks in these parts are missing the best sports show in town, bar none. The Caps have been entertaining and, more important, successful. Where else around here does one get to see the kind of speed, collisions, scores . . . wins . . . the Caps are dishing up these days? If you haven’t seen a Caps game live – a hockey game live – you’re missing out on the most entertaining 60 minutes of action you’re likely to see. What, you’d rather spend three hours watching guys on TV make left turns? The local burgundy and gold sports institution implode? Hee-yeah…right.

Dear Peerless,

I have a boo-boo . . . the big, mean, ugly hockey player hit me when I wasn’t lookin’ and now . . . now –sob-- I have a boo-boooooooooooo . . .

Look, Briere, enough is enough. Move on, OK?

Dear Peerless,

I don’t wanna…they can’t make me…I can’t do it…it’s too hard, I don’t feel right, my sticks aren’t good, I think my skates need sharpening, the ice is icky, whaa-whaa-whaa.

Jags, you’re the captain. Take a damn turn in the shootout, ok?

Dear Peerless,

It’s going to be the must-see TV event of the year! Crosby!! Ovechkin!!! Malkin!!! Together, on the ice!!!! National TV!!!!! Ya gotta watch!!!!!! It’ll be the hockey event of the year!!!!!!! Bigger than the Stanley Cup!!!!!!!! Bigger than the Super Bowl!!!!!!!!!

Whoa, Mr. Commissioner . . . I got an over-under ratings number for you . . . 0.2. More people watch bass fishing. More people watch bass fishing for bass.

As for the game . . . It doesn’t get easier for the Men in Black. Anaheim now has the best record in the NHL – 21-3-6 for 48 points. They’re about ready to lap the field out west, holding a nine-point lead over Nashville for the conference points lead. Although it is perhaps the best defensive team in the NHL, their offense shouldn’t be overlooked. Third in total scoring (goals-per-game), sixth in 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio, first in power play efficiency, fourth in shots taken-per-game, they make things tough on defenses and goaltenders in most aspects. But here is the big number on the offensive side of the ledger . . . Anaheim leads the NHL in third period scoring. They close out games effectively. Combine that with the fact that they are fifth in fewest third period goals allowed, and it makes it clear that beating them is a 60-minute affair. Given that only three teams have done so in regulation, one would think it is a daunting task.

Well, it is. But consider this . . . the teams that have beaten Anaheim in regulation are Calgary, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles. Combined record, 31-41-14. And it’s not as if Anaheim is gifted in the extra session – 2-1 in overtime, 2-5 in shootouts. Hey, we’ll glom onto any piece of driftwood in thinking up reasons for the Ducks to lose. But defense isn’t among them. In Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer, the Ducks have perhaps the best pair of defensemen in the league. Offensively, they have similar results (Pronger is 4-27-31 with two power play goals and a game-winning goal, Niedermayer is 5-21-26 with two power play goals and a game winner), they get comparable ice time (both around 27 minutes a game). Niedermayer, surprisingly perhaps, has been credited with more hits (37 to 28), Pronger with more blocked shots (46 to 19). But this is a team that is solid up and down the roster on defense. Only three players with more than 15 games played are on the minus side of the plus-minus numbers, two of them (Ryan Shannon and Dustin Penner) having fewer than 50 games of experience each.

All of that almost makes goaltending an afterthought . . . yeah, we Caps fans wish. Jean-Sebastien Giguere and Ilya Bryzgalov make up what might be the most formidable goaltending duo in the league. Pick your poison . . . Giguere, 2.11 GAA; Bryzgalov, 2.19 . . . Giguere, .925 save percentage; Bryzgalov, .909 . . . Giguere, 17-2-5; Bryzgalov, 3-1-1. Maybe head coach Randy Carlyle will take it easy on his old club and dress Michael Wall (1-0, 3.00, .864).

But on the other side of the ice, the Caps have won four in a row. And none have been fluky. They’ve outscored Tampa Bay, Dallas, Buffalo, and Ottawa by 22-11 in that stretch, getting timely scoring from all over the roster (12 players have scored the 22 goals) and excellent netminding from Olaf Kolzig (2.75, .929 over the four game streak). The one thing the Caps have done well in this four-game streak – well, one of the things they’ve done well – is start fast. They’ve outscored their opponents by a combined 9-1 in the first period in the four games, scored first in every game, and led at the first intermission in every game. And, those nine first period goals have come from some unlikely sources – Alex Ovechkin has one, but Chris Clark and Richard Zednik have two apiece, with the others coming from Kris Beech, Bryan Muir, Ben Clymer, and Matt Bradley.

What the Caps have done lately is what they will have to do to win this game – get off fast, get balanced scoring, get solid goaltending and defensive play, and give a full 60 minutes worth of effort (gee, like that’s news on how to win games, eh, Mr. Peerless?).

And that’s just what The Peerless expects tonight, as the Ducks waddle off the ice with the fourth regulation loss entered into their record book . . .

Caps 3 – Ducks 2.

The Morning After -- Caps versus Senators

How ‘bout dem Caps?!

Having opened a six-pack of whoop-ass on the Ottawa Senators last night in a 6-2 win, the Caps have won four in a row, outscored their opponents 22-11 in doing so, and have won as many games in succession as the Redskins have won since September.

It would be hard to find fault with much in the Caps’ game last night (though The Peerless will bet a shiny nickel some folks over on the official discussion boards will try their mightiest). Five players scored the six goals; nine different players had points, Olaf Kolzig stopped 35 of 37 shots, Alex Ovechkin broke two sticks (note to Alex: hope you kept the receipt for those things), John Erskine and Donald Brashear provided pugiltainment, although neither won their bouts (Brashear now has his own video cheer – you have arrived as a Cap, sir), Goat was in excellent voice, Smiley was in excellent tune, and a good time was had by all.

But here was the best part – Peter Schaffer on the Ottawa bench with a white towel on his stick waving it around. It was a response to a penalty (an unsportsmanlike conduct call on Dean McAmmond), but the symbolism was apt. The Caps played about as complete a game as a club is capable of playing against a team that came into the game with a four-game winning streak of its own. They ground the Senators into a fine powder and whisked them away with a three-goal third period to put the game away. One could almost hear the Senators groaning, “no mas!”

Some of the best parts . . .

- LeBron Semin skying for the puck at the blue line to keep it in the offensive zone, coming down with it, stepping forward and leaning into a slapper that left Ray Emery thinking, “there must be easier ways to earn a living.”

- Brooks Laich, netting his first goal of the year -- a real "happy birthday to me" thing with the puck seeming to appear if by magic on his stick blade -- then spreading his arms and looking skyward as if to say, “it’s about $#@&ing time!”

- Dainius Zubrus, getting three assists in his first game back from illness, contributing to a seven-point night for the top line.

- Alex Ovechkin getting ten shots to go with his two broken sticks. And his cross-ice feed to Pettinger for an easy flip into the Ottawa net was sweet to behold.

- John Erskine, who might have made the single most important play of the game, when with the game still in the balance, swept away a juicy rebound out of harm’s way in the crease, just as an Ottawa player was about to pounce on it in front of an empty net.

- And here’s one for a Senator . . . let’s have a little respect for Anton Volchenkov this morning . . . eight blocked shots. Ouch.

The Peerless did not think the Caps would be in this game if they gave up more than five or so power plays to the Senators. Well, Ottawa had the man advantage eight times and scored once. The Caps were extremely aggressive against the puck carrier, not giving the Senators time to move the puck with authority. In fact, this was a theme in the first and third periods, which might qualify as the most intense hockey the Caps have played in several years. The first period was pretty much a pack of rabid dogs set loose on the Senators as if they were slabs of prime rib on skates.

Some numbers of note:

- 1:51 . . . ice time for Brian McGrattan. If hockey was an hourly wage sport, this guy would be making Jagr-bucks.

- -0- . . . that would be the number of hits for Alex Ovechkin last night. Coincidence? It did seem he pulled back in a few instances where he might have laid the lumber on someone.

- 33/20 . . . that’s the ratio of Washington takeaways-plus-Ottawa giveaways to Ottawa takeaways-plus-Washington giveaways. It is as useful a measure as any to reflect the degree to which Washington dominated the game (well, the score is a pretty good indicator, too).

The Caps cannot be said to have won these past four games in fluky fashion. They’ve done it with solid play and contributions from up and down the bench. But before we get too carried away, though, this streak means that they are 4-4-2 in their last ten games. Streaks are nice – when they are the winning kind – but one followed by a losing streak (or preceded by it, in this case) isn’t perhaps what the club is looking for. That being said, in these four games the club has given more than a glimpse of its potential; it has raised the curtain as to what this team can be – aggressive, speedy, balanced, skilled, feisty, stout in goal. They’ve also been odd – 8-3-0 against teams with 100 or more points last year, 4-6-6 against everyone else.

Go figure.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Senators, December 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Three in a row . . . whoda thunk it? Against Tampa Bay, Dallas, and Buffalo, no less (combined record this morning without the losses to the Caps, 52-23-4). Another rung on the ladder, so to speak. But the Caps are still on the outside, looking in, as far as playoff seeds go – tied for tenth in standings points in the East this morning. So, there is much work to do, a lot of . . .

“Hey, what’s with all this work, eh?”

Bob?

“Uh, yeah . . . and my brother Doug is here, too.”

“Hey, how’s it goin’ eh?”

What are you guys doing here?

“Well, those last three games the Caps had – they sure were a beauty, eh – we just wanted to see them for ourselves.”

Ted’ll be glad you bought tickets.

“What tickets, we’re gonna sneak in.”

“Yeah, maybe like with a case o’ donuts or somethin’ . . . “

“The don’t have donuts in the arena, you hoser.”

“No donuts? . . . well, what do they dunk in their beer?”

“Chicken fingers, I think.”

“Chickens don’t have fingers . . . “

“Sure they do . . . they can’t dunk their donuts with their beaks.”

Guys?...Guys??

“Oh, yeah . . . so, like, what’s the deal with this OH-vechkin kid, eh? . . . He’s from Russia, right?”

“No, you hoser, he’s from Washington . . . Russia doesn’t have a team in the NHL.”

He was born in Russia.

“There, see what I mean? . . . and you think you’re so smart.”

“Hey, I wasn’t the one who was going to sneak in on a case of donuts.”

“Well how do YOU want to sneak in?”

“UH, how ‘bout with the beer?”

“Yeah, if we don’t drink it all, first, eh?”

Sounds like you two have gotten an early start . . . let’s get to the game. Ottawa comes in a far different team than the one that blew a 3-0 lead to the Caps a month ago today. The Senators are 10-5-0 since that night and are in the midst of a four game winning streak. And, the Sens have outscored their opponents 60-41 over the last 15 and 19-5 in their last four games. That would be the very definition of a team on a roll. It has enabled the Senators to climb from 5-7-1 and among the larger disappointments of the year to 15-12-1 and sixth place in the East.

Dany Heatley has scored goals in bunches in the 15-game run. Overall, he is 10-10-20, +3 in that stretch, but he has four multiple goal games in that run, including a hat trick against Florida on November 24th. Jason Spezza is 8-12-20, +2 over those same 15 games. From those two, you would expect some gaudy numbers. But the emergent player might be Antoine Vermette. In these last 15 games he is 6-4-10 but has three goals in his last three games, including the game-winner against Tampa Bay last Saturday. Among the unexpected scorers is Chris Neil (6-5-11, +5), usually thought to be more a purveyor of the grittier aspects of the game.

The Ottawa power play has come to life in the past month. When the Senators left Verizon a month ago, they were 6-for-73 (8.2 percent). Since then they are 19-for-76 (25.0 percent). Their fortunes have risen with their power play stock. However, their penalty kill has dropped some. While they killed 60 of 68 shorthanded situations (88.2 percent) through the Washington game last month, they are 52-for-63 since (82.5 percent).

Goaltending remains an issue, though. Despite being given every opportunity to hod the number one slot, Martin Gerber simply hasn’t done the job. At 5-8-1, 3.17, .897 for the year, he’s been a huge disappointment for a club expected to be among the elite, although he has played well in his last two outings (both wins, 1.50, .946). Ray Emery has had a fine year thus far – 10-4, 2.08, .931 – and has appeared to have taken over in the number one slot. His job will be to demonstrate that he can sustain that kind of performance over a long season and with the pressure of the number one responsibility on his shoulders.

For the Caps, the trick is to keep doing what they’re doing. After a six-game winless slide, they are 3-0 against fine clubs, outscoring them 16-9. Those 16 goals have been spread around, too. Ten different players have those goals, Matt Pettinger leading with three. Digging deeper, 12 of the 16 goals have come from players not on the top line of Alexander Ovechkin-Dainius Zubrus-Chris Clark. That the second line of Alexander Semin-Kris Beech-Matt Pettinger has chipped in six is an encouraging sign.

Key to the Caps’ success this past week has been penalty killing. The Caps have killed off 16 of 17 shorthanded situations in the last three games and have a shorthanded goal. It has offset a rather weak power play (about the only negative one might find in their recent play), which is 2-for-15 in this short run.

Olaf Kolzig has continued his dominating play in this three-game run (3-0-0, 3.00, .924). The odd statistic concerning his work has been that in each of the three games, shot totals have come down (50-38-30), yet goal totals have gone up (2-3-4). Statistics being what they are, this isn’t conclusive, just odd – Buffalo averages more than four goals a games, so their getting four isn’t exactly unusual.

Although the Caps have been stout penalty killers of late, that isn’t a recipe for winning against the Senators, who have re-discovered their offense. The Caps have outscored the opposition 13-8 at even strength in these last three games, and that is where they have to fight this battle. If both the Caps and Senators have fewer than five power play opportunities, that plays more to the Caps’ strength. If it gets to be a special teams affair, it could be a long night. But have faith, fans of the swooping eagle . . . the Caps have shown that they can compete against the better clubs in the league, as evidenced by their successful west coast swing and their recent run of luck. Tonight, more of the same . . .

Caps 3 – Senators 2

Stuff . . .

The Caps don’t play until Wednesday, but that doesn’t mean stuff isn’t going on . . .

First . . . NHL.com reports that the NHL owners are meeting in Palm Beach this week to discuss a number of items:

- High on the list of yakkable topics is the schedule. Seems the owners might realize something the general managers didn’t . . . getting a Sidney Crosby or an Alex Ovechkin, or a Detroit Red Wings (with the Grateful Red traveling road show fans) or New York Rangers once in a Halley’s Comet sighting isn’t good business. Especially when that Florida Panther/Washington Capital rivalry doesn’t appear to have taken hold. Will anything happen? The Peerless’ magic eight-ball sez . . . not at this meeting, but something will be done for the 2008-2009 season.

- Playoff bracketing . . . the league currently employs the bracket/re-bracket method after each round to ensure that the “best” team faces the “worst” in each round leading up to the Stanley Cup championship. The proposal here is to go to an NCAA-style bracketing method, where the seeds are not re-sorted after each round. That could put a real premium on the first round – if an 8-seed beats a top-seed, for example, they get the winner of the 4-5 series, no matter what (they would not have to face the 2-seed if that club beat the 7-seed). Will this change? In the end, no.

- Revenues and TV . . . the owners will get a snapshot of projected revenues and an update on the television “landscapes” in the US and Canada. These issues are related. After a large, and largely unexpected, jump in revenues in the league last year, attendance is down this year (higher ticket prices will mean a modest increase in revenue seems to be the message). Television ratings, for all the bleatings from the league and its major TV partners that progress is being made, are anemic. It’s hard to put an evening gown on a pig, call it Miss America and have anyone say anything other than, “yeah, right.” These guys are the very flower of business acumen in the National Hockey League – they’d better figure something out, and that means something other than gimmicks (cough-shootout-cough).

Second, it looks as if Alexander Ovechkin will not do any time for his hit on Daniel Briere on Saturday. The 20 minutes in penalties and Benjamin appear sufficient in the eyes of the league. The Peerless disagrees, even as a Caps fan. Boarding is a big deal (ask Erik Cole . . . or Robbie Bina, for that matter). This is one of those “learning” situations that can be more valuable to a player than any drill in practice. In this case, a player who has steadfastly earned – deservedly so – a reputation as a supremely skilled, charismatic, tough-but-clean player, can see that reputation disintegrate into that of a “dirty” player in the blink of an eye. The Peerless did his own informal, unscientific survey of team message boards to take the pulse of the hockey fan yesterday, and most sites where the topic was discussed deemed the hit “dirty,” “gutless,” that of a “punk,” and worse. Alex isn’t that kind of player and gives no indication of being that kind of person (I’ve never had the pleasure of meeting him), but that is how quick things can change, and it can take a career to dig out from under it.

The Peerless thinks one game was in order to press the point that actions have consequences, even for elite players, and to show the player (and others) in a tangible way that respect for one’s opponent is required at this level of play.

I would be shocked if this sort of thing were ever to appear again in the body of work of Alexander Ovechkin. In a career that is likely to span 15 years or more, this won’t rise to the level of footnote, but it – and suitable punishment -- could serve as a valuable lesson in the young man’s development as both a player and as an ambassador for the league.

There are three kinds of people in the world . . .

Those who can count, and those who cant. From the sabres.com story on last night's game . . .

"The bench got even shorter when three players - Paul Gaustad and Adam Mair - were assessed game misconducts in the second period after a dangerous check by Alex Ovechkin on Daniel Briere sparked some hostility."

The Peerless realizes the Sabres are good, but are two guys really as good as three?

The Hard Way at Home

They didn’t do it the easy way . . .

Dainius Zubrus: out with the flu

Matt Bradley: out with family concerns

Jamie Heward: out with injury

Shaone Morrisonn: played with stomach flu

Alexander Ovechkin: missed the last 35:08 (ejection)

Richard Zednik: missed the last 24:00 (injury)

There is a third of the regular skating complement – kicked out, injured, sick, or addressing family matters – against the top team in the East that had lost only three games in regulation.

And they did it, even then, the hard way around, getting involved in an 11-goal pinball game, the kind of game The Peerless certainly didn't think the Caps could win (we're "peerless," not "perfect").

There are many things this club needs to learn on their way to contention for a championship. Part of that is dealing with adversity, having other guys step up when things are down. Players not mentioned above went 5-7-12 last night. Eleven players had points (including the Zednik and Ovechkin goals).

One might argue that the Sabres were playing the second half of a back-to-back, had an especially difficult travel situation getting out of Buffalo the night before, went to a shootout the night before with the Rangers . . . blah-blah-blah, wah-wah-wah . . . well, in six games representing the second-half of a back-to-back coming into last night's game, the Sabres were 5-1, outscoring their opponents, 27-20.

And this makes the Caps 3-0 on their five game swing among some of the league’s better teams (Tampa Bay, Dallas, Buffalo – all wins thus far – Ottawa, and Anaheim).

This is good.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Sabres

Wow . . . just . . . wow.

The Peerless hates 8:00 starts, but for all the things that were crammed into this one, the hour delay in starting time was worth it . . .

- Zednik, Muir, Ovechkin . . . three goals on nine shots in 7:45 . . . 3-0, and Ryan Miller takes a seat.

Caps fans think, “hey, maybe we can win this game . . . “

- Buffalo gets one back with just under five minutes left in the first . . . 3-1

Caps fans think, “that’s it, we’re screwed . . . “

- Ben Clymer gets it back less than a minute later . . . 4-1

Caps fans think, “we’re still in it!”

- Alex Ovechkin commits the single dumbest play of his short career . . . he takes a seat. Paul Gaustad leaves his seat to take on Ovechkin, gets 27 PIMs in the blink of an eye . . . he takes a seat. Danielle Briere, who looked as if he'd been shot with a deer rifle on the Ovechkin hit, never misses a shift. Adam Mair auditions for the Redskins' kicking job . . . he takes a seat.

Caps fans think, “where’s Brashear?”

- Brian Pothier freight-trains Maxim Afinogenov (ok, who ever thought THAT sentence ever would be written). Then he pokes the puck forward toward Jakub Klepis. Martin Biron springs out of his net to try to beat Klepis to the puck, dives, misses (but upending Klepis, sending him careening into the corner), and ends up with a nice seat at the Sabres’ blue line to watch Matt Pettinger stick the puck in the net . . . 5-1

Caps fans think, “the circus is in town?”

- Buffalo gets a power play goal from Chris Drury, who managed to get the puck from his backhand to his forehand and back to his backhand to lift it over Olaf Kolzig, all with Shaone Morrisonn and Boyd Gordon close enough to be able to read the tag on the back of the collar of his jersey . . . 5-2

Caps fans think, “oh well, it was nice while it lasted . . .”

- Buffalo got another one in the last minute of the second . . . 5-3

Caps fans think, “who will we draft first overall next June?”

- Matt Pettinger scores a goal that might have been picked up on radar (the human eye couldn’t record the event) on a silly sick feed from Alexander Semin out of the left wing corner . . . 6-3

Caps fans think, “Matt Pettinger . . . our very own Jari Kurri.”

Buffalo scratches back with a goal mid-way through the third . . . 6-4

Caps fans think, “@$#%!”

- John Erskine finds the puck behind his own goal line and threw it along the boards. Teppo Numminen couldn't keep it in, and the puck skittered down the ice toward the Sabres' net. Numminen turned and raced -- well, raced as much as a 38-year old defenseman can -- after the puck. He was a step too late, ands Erskine had his goal-from-another-area-code . . . 7-4

Caps fans think, “huh...knew it all along.”

Some odd numbers . . .

7:21/56:00 – That would be the combined ice time/combined penalty minutes of Adam Mair and Paul Gaustad.

Two – That would be the number of shifts Andrew Peters had (29 seconds of total ice time), and one of those was to skate to the bench after serving in the box in place of Sabres already penalized and ejected.

Three – the first three game winning streak of the year for the Caps.

Three (again) – the number of consecutive games the Caps have chased the opponent’s starting goalie.

60 – the percentage of draws won by the Caps. No Cap lost more than he won.

9-15-2 – the Caps’ record after 26 games last year (20 points). They are 11-9-6 (28 points) this year.

17/16 – The number of goals Alexander Ovechkin has/had in 26 games this year/last year. Is this guy consistent, or what?

And finally . . . Ovechkin plays less than ten minutes, gets a fighting penalty while neither discarding his gloves nor throwing a punch . . . gets the game's second star. Now that is a fitting end to a squirrelly night.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! . . . Caps vs. Sabres, December 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Break up the Caps! Two in a row, against Tampa Bay and Dallas, no less. We won’t get into the end-of-game nail-biting that ensued as both opponents made late runs, looking to focus on the good stuff. So, for the good stuff . . .

In those two games, Washington scored nine goals from seven different players (Chris Clark and Alexander Semin netting two goals, apiece), and . . .

Olaf Kolzig . . . 83 saves on 89 shots (.933)

Matt Pettinger, +3, 1-2-2 . . . Alexander Semin, 2-1-3, +2 . . . John Erskine, more than 21 minutes a game, +1 . . . Jakub Klepis, 0-2-2, even . . . Brian Pothier, +3 . . .

The point being that the Caps have gotten contributions from more than just the first line. Now, if the Caps can only get Alexander Ovechkin up and running in penalty shot/shootout situations, they’d be . . .

“now . . . that’s just ‘stinking thinking’”

Uh, Stuart? Stuart Smalley?

“Yes, I’m Stuart, and I’m a worthy human being . . .”

Of course you are . . . ok, The Peerless guesses it can’t hurt . . . what would you say to Alex to get him out of his funk?

“Well, I’d sit him down, face-to-face . . . I’d look into his eyes and say to him, ‘Alex?...You’re ‘should-ing’ all over yourself. You can’t say ‘I should have done this,’ or ‘I should have done that.’ You need to say, ‘I’m good enough, I’m smart enough, and doggone it, people like me.’”

Well, it’s kind of tough out there as the only guy on the ice with everyone expecting him to make a great play . . . maybe he’s thinking about it too much . . .

“Well, maybe, and that's.. o-kay. He’s not alone. Believe me, I know what it's like…out there alone… all those fans watching: ‘I'm a fraud.. tomorrow, I'm going to be exposed for what I am, a big imposter’… I just want to curl up and lay in bed all day and eat Fig Newtons.”

But he’s the Calder Trophy winner. He had 52 goals last year. No one has more goals the last two years . . .

“And that’s why he has to say, “I don’t need to be a great shootout shooter, I just need to be the best Alex I can be . . . “

Think that will work?

“Well . . . yes, but if it doesn’t, maybe he could try a wrister every once in a while instead of always deking.”

Well, hopefully it won’t come to that, but Buffalo is one formidable club. If there is a ray of sunshine looking at this game, it is that Buffalo played a full 65 minutes and a shootout last night against the Rangers in Buffalo (they won 4-3). That could mean that Ryan Miller would get tonight off, and the Caps would face a backup for the second straight contest. Of course, Martin Biron would be that backup. He is, to use a baseball analogy, a guy who gets a lot of wins because he gets lots of run-support (or in this case, goal support). In Biron’s seven wins (he’s 7-1), he’s had at least four goals of support. His own stats are pretty ordinary – 3.11, .893 – although he’s had considerable success against Washington in his career (9-5-1, 2.40, .916).

Getting support, though, is hardly uncommon for Buffalo goaltenders. The Sabres lead the league in scoring (almost two-thirds of a goal better than second-place Nashville). They are an extremely efficient club. They score 4.16 goals a game (1^st) on only 29.7 shots a game (15^th). And, the balance that they rode to the playoffs last year manifests itself once more this year. They have 12 skaters in double-digit scoring (the Caps, by way of comparison, have seven). They have five players in double-digit goal scoring (the Caps, three). They have five players in double-digit plus numbers for the year (the Caps, none). They have only three players with more than 10 games played who are minus for the year – all are at -1 (the Caps, 13 players). Buffalo has 12 goals from their defense, the Caps have only five from their centers (at least those who have played more at that position that at wing).

Buffalo is not an especially noteworthy defensive team. They are 15^th in goals-per-game allowed, 16^th in penalty killing. But, while they can and do give up goals, no lead is safe against them. Their winning percentage when trailing first? . . . .900 (better than when they score first). They are, in a sense, the very epitome of the new NHL team the league seems to prefer – all offense, all the time, speedy, not especially physical (for example, they are 21^st in fighting majors – five of those by Andrew Peters -- 12^th in total shorthanded situation)—a video game team.

This could be a 7-5 game. If it is, the Caps getting the “7” is not a good bet. Despite their speed, they won’t match the Sabres’ offensive balance. The wild card here is the goaltenders. Kolzig, who would seem to get the nod here, having had a day off since the Dallas game, has had a good, if not spectacular career mark against the Sabres (13-11-2, 2.41, .911). And, he’s been consistently strong lately.

The Peerless has a feeling this is going longer than 65 minutes. And Martin Biron hasn’t been in a shootout this year. Alex Ovechkin takes Stuart Smalley’s affirmations to heart . . .

Caps 4 – Sabres 3, in a shootout.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Stars

Well, they sure do make it entertaining, don’t they? The Caps won a game last night they had every indication of gagging on late in the third period, beating the Dallas Stars, 4-3. For 56 minutes, they were as dominating a club as this club can be. And this has nothing to do with the fact that Dallas chose to dress Mike Smith in lieu of Marty Turco in goal (Smith was pulled for the third period in favor of Turco after he gave up four goals on 14 shots). The Caps won more battles than not along the boards and in the corners, and played Dallas even in the grinding aspects of the game. They took advantage of their opportunities (well, that three-on-one where they never got a shot on net wasn’t pretty, and if you look up “snake-bit” in the dictionary this morning, you’ll see Alexander Ovechkin with the puck skittering off his stick on a penalty shot). They gave goalie Olaf Kolzig a comparative night off for those first 56 minutes.

Then there were the last four minutes of the game.

In those first 56 minutes, the Stars managed 27 shots on goal – a pretty average night for any average NHL team (and a lot less than the Caps usually surrender). In the last four minutes (actually, the last 3:43), the Stars had 11 shots on goal. A 4-1 lead was shaved to its thinnest advantage on a well-placed Stu Barnes shot from the low left-wing circle and 1:17 later a wrister from Jussi Jokinen from the slot when he was left uncovered on a rebound.

But, as is often – perhaps a little too often – the case, the game was placed in the hands of goalie Olaf Kolzig, who continued his sharp play (35 saves on 38 shots for the game). Kolzig turned away the last four shots taken in the last minute, and it was another “GAL LODI” night (getting tired of this, yet?).

Looking at the Caps’ performance for the night, what is remarkable is its balance. As was the case in the Tampa game, each of the goals was scored by a different player – Richard Zednik, Chris Clark, Matt Pettinger, and Alexander Semin. But, nine different players registered points (only Jakub Klepis had more than one point – two assists). None of those points were registered by Alexander Ovechkin (ending a modest three game scoring streak).

The Caps had more than one occasion to fold in this game. With a 2-0 lead to start the second period, Dallas got a quick marker 41 seconds in. Given the Caps’ problems in the second period this year, that could have signaled a meltdown. The Caps held the Stars to only eight more shots in the period.

The Caps could have seen the air go out of their balloon when Alexander Ovechkin missed a penalty shot midway through the second and the Caps holding only a 2-1 lead. But the Caps managed to net two more goals late in the period – one on a sweet move by Matt Pettinger to step over a desperate sweep check by a Dallas defender who was prone on the ice – to stake themselves to a 4-1 lead at the second intermission.

The Caps appeared to stop skating in the last half of the third period, perhaps thinking that all that was left was to run out the clock. They were burned for that with the two late goals, but they managed to grind out those last two minutes without surrendering the tying goal.

It was a gritty performance befitting the nature of the opponent and the kind of game the Caps have to play on most nights to win. There was perhaps more scoring in this game than one (well, The Peerless) might have expected, but in that is evidence of the Caps’ promise, too. Three of the goals were scored by players who can now be considered “foundation” players as the club goes forward – Clark, Pettinger, Semin. As the skill – or more precisely, the experience in applying that skill – catches up to the effort level, this could be a formidable team. They gave evidence tonight of two truths. First, they can compete with any team when their effort level is high. Second, they can find themselves in deep trouble when that effort level isn’t as high, since they don’t yet have the skill level to get by on skill alone.

The Caps are tied for tenth this morning, which is where they might be expected to be after 25 games. But on the plus side, they have negotiated the first two of this five-game stretch against some of the league’s better teams successfully. It will not get easier with Buffalo, Ottawa, and Anaheim coming to town, but Caps fans have no reason to think that the club can’t compete with these teams.


-- Congratulations to Olaf Kolzig. Last night was his first win against the Stars in his career. He had been winless in ten decisions against them to that point.

-- Jamie Heward took a Mike Modano skate blade to the face that opened up a nasty gash along the bridge of his nose and left cheek under his eye. It was an injury that looked ugly at the time and in pictures after the game. But, Heward being a gamer, he skated off strongly on his own. Although he’s listed as being out indefinitely this morning, we’re all hoping his is a quick recovery.

It's That Time Again . . . The "Old Man's Major Award Award"

Yes, it's that time again. As we approach the end of the month, it is almost time to award the November OMMAA.



This presitigious trophy -- suitable for framing in, say, the picture window of the family home -- is bestowed to that Washington Capital who exhibits the timeless qualities of "The Old Man" -- a unique gift for language, a singular inability to fix anything, a hatred of Bumpus' hounds - or just opponents in general -- a love of turkey, and a singular effort in exhibiting the curmudgeonly, ornery, but loving attributes we attribute to, "The Old Man."

The floor is open to nominations for the first five days following the end of the month. The decisions of The Peerless will be final . . .

"What is a lamp, you nincompoop? It's a Major Award. I won it!"

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps vs. Stars, November 30th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!

Well, the Caps got off the schneid last time out and . . .

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. . . rode a 48-save performance by Olaf Kolzig to a 5-2 win in Tampa . . .

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. . . but next up are the Dallas Stars, a club that always gives the Caps fits. But before we get to that, we have a special treat. With the league’s teams approaching the one-third point of the season, The Peerless thought it might be time to get a Commissioner’s eye view of the league so far . . . Mr. Commissioner . . .

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Mr. Commissioner? . . .

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Mr. Commissioner??

“WHAT?!”

Mr. Commissioner, we’re interested in your take on the season so far.

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Mr. Commissioner?

“Ok, OK, already! . . . what was the question?”

Your take on the season so far?

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Mr. Commiss–

“It’s great, it’s wonderful, best season ever, blah-blah-blah...”

Mr. Commissioner, I thought we could–

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Mr. Commissioner, what in heaven’s name are you doing?

“Don’t interrupt me, I’m busy . . . Crosby-Fleury-Malkin...(send) . . . Crosby-Fleury-Malkin...(send) . . . “

Well, while the Commissioner stuffs the All-Star Game ballot box, we’ll take a look at what’s up next for the Caps.

At 16-8-0 Dallas is tied for the fifth highest point total in the league. They suffer for being in the same division as Anaheim (tops in points) and San Jose (third). Dallas has not played those clubs often (they are 1-1 against those two so far this year), but they are 15-7 against the rest of the league. They’re doing it in a way familiar to those who have watched that team over the years – they are giving up fewer goals per game than any team in the league (2.13). As one might expect from that result, the Stars are quite effective at even strength (fourth in 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio) and equally effective in killing penalties (fourth at 87.7 percent). Add to that the fact that they are second in the league in shots allowed per game (a minuscule 25.8), and it is clear that teams have to earn what meager offense they can generate against this team. And, if a team does fall behind, the task becomes even more difficult – Dallas leads the league in winning percentage when scoring first.

Looking at the club at the individual level, the team defensive numbers reflect a strength from the inside out – no defenseman has a minus number for the year. It is a group that is solid and deep. Add a three-time Selke winner in Jere Lehtinen, and it is as formidable a defensive group in its parts as it is as a team.

It would be tempting to think of the weak link here as being goaltending, but if anything Marty Turco is a regular season wonder. He can be counted on to have a GAA in the low 2's (or lower) and a save percentage in the .920 range (with a sparse workload in terms of shots). Given that the Stars played the Blackhawks last night, though, one might think Mike Smith will get a turn. Smith, in limited action (six games) has sparkling numbers – 5-1, 1.53, .937. Getting him would not necessarily be a blessing.

As for the former local hero, Jeff Halpern has had what for him is a typically indifferent start – 3-5-8, even, in 23 games (not including the Wednesday game), although he’s been stirring a bit more of late (2-2-4, +1 in his last six).

The Caps, on the other hand, are a club that might be between tendencies. In their six game winless streak they scored only nine goals while giving up 24 (not including a shootout loss). The Caps have given up 33 more goals than have the Stars – 1.38 more per game – while giving up 14.4 more shots per game. Those are significant numbers. 1.38 goals per game on 14.4 shots is a .904 save percentage. If, say, Olaf Kolzig and Marty Turco both save .904 percent of their shots, both have an average game in terms of shots faced, the Caps lose by more than a goal. For the Caps to get the club to overtime, Kolzig would have to save 93.8 percent of the shots he faces (assuming an average game of 36.5 shots). That’s a lot of arithmetic, but the point is that Kolzig has to stand on his head while Turco sits in a rocker to achieve the same result in terms of goals allowed.

But we said they might be between tendencies. They suffered a bump in the road (ok, they spun into a ditch for half a dozen games), but they spread the love around against Tampa – five players scored the five goals – and they withstood a late Tampa charge, thanks largely to Kolzig. Perhaps this is the beginning of a bit of a run. It can’t come at a better time, given the level of competition the Caps will face.

Some numbers of note . . . Alex Ovechkin has scored goals in 12 of his last 19 games – not points, goals (a total of 14 goals). That is at once a remarkably consistent record, and it is a 60-goal pace over 82 games.

The last time Dainius Zubrus won half his face-offs? . . . Veterans Day. He’s gone seven straight games on the sub-50 percent side of the ledger.

Ben Clymer is quietly struggling. Since his splashy return to forward against Philadelphia on November 4th, he has not been on the plus side of the ledger (-7 in 11 games).

Matt Pettinger has points in eight of his last 11 games (4-5-9).

Since laying an egg against Ottawa, Olaf Kolzig has saved 245 of 262 shots (93.5 percent) in seven games.

This is likely to be an aesthetically ugly game to watch. Dallas grinds out wins, and the Caps are a team hard to predict as to which one will appear. "GAL LODI" is going to have to be the recipe again – “get a lead” . . . “let Olie do it.” The Caps almost have to approach this as a road game, keeping things simple and taking advantage of what few opportunities they are likely to get. Dallas has been in a feast-or-famine stretch lately, scoring at least four goals in their last seven games but getting only a single marker in each of the others (including the 2-1 loss to Chicago Wednesday, which ended as The Peerless wrote this). Given how Kolzig has played lately and Ovechkin’s consistency in goal scoring, a couple of markers could do the trick . . .

Caps 2 – Stars 1.

The Morning After -- Caps vs. Lightning

Well, it seems that the Caps’ formula for winning can be summed up with this acronym:

"GAL LODI"

“Get a Lead” . . . “Let Olie Do It.”

Last night, the Caps withstood an early storm by the Tampa Bay Lightning, made them pay for letting the Caps off the hook by getting a late first-of-game goal from Kris Beech in the first period, pounded three pucks into the back of the net in the second to take a 4-0 lead (and seemingly end the competitive portion of the game), then turned the game over to Kolzig in the third (25 shots on net faced, two goals surrendered – not a bad game total).

The Peerless will tell himself all morning that it’s not “how,” it’s “how many” – wins that is, and this one is nice, given that it: a) ends a six-game winless streak, and b) comes at the expense of a division opponent on their ice.

But let’s not kid ourselves, either. But for the rank ineptitude of the Tampa power play (nothing to show for seven opportunities and 24 total shots on goal with the man-advantage) and the Comanecian gymnastics of Kolzig in the nets (saving 48 of 50 shots on goal), this would have been an ugly game for a Caps fan to endure.

The number that sticks in The Peerless’ head this morning is this one . . .

81

That represents the total of shots on goal, missed shots, and shots blocked by Capitals. That’s approximately one shot sent toward the net every 45 seconds. And let’s put that number in further perspective. Last night, the Milwaukee Bucks scored more points in an NBA game than any other team – 109. In doing so, they took 85 shots from the floor (we don’t include free throws for this comparison, since the clock is stopped for those instances). The Tampa effort was as close to a run-and-gun NBA game as you’re likely to find. With apologies to Cristobal Huet and Roberto Luongo – both of whom are goaltenders who had fine games last night – neither was better than Olaf Kolzig in earning their respective three-star recognition from NHL.com.

But what about the good stuff? Well, there was, actually, and not just the win. The Caps had five different players score the five goals – Beech, Boyd Gordon (shorthanded), Alexander Semin, Chris Clark, and an empty-netter by Alexander Ovechkin. That’s two from the first line and three from . . . SOMEWHERE ELSE!

Then there are the even strength goals. In the six-game slide, the Caps had two of that sort. Mites score more at the intermission of one game. The Caps had four even-strength tallies in this one (including the Ovechkin empty-netter).

And there is John Erskine. Plus-three and a swat at everyone’s favorite wind-up doll, Martin St. Louis.

But if The Peerless had to give a slice o’ pie to one Cap last night, it would have been Matt Pettinger. As time goes by, he gives more indication that his coming-out last year was not fluke. He had the primary assists on each of the Caps first two goals last night – one in his role as the right wing (the “Chris-Clark-lite” role) on the second line, the other in a penalty killing situation. He was plus-three for the night and played with a consistent level of intensity.

But heavens to Murgatroid . . . what a night for Kolzig. 48 saves on 50 shots (.960 save percentage), 25 shots faced in the last period (13 of those from the big three of St. Louis, Brad Richards, and Vincent Levcavalier), 24 power play shots faced.

Sometimes, you lose games you scratch your head and ask, “how?” You play at a high effort level, you get a ton of chances, and you end up losing the bounces of the puck that night. Then there are those games you have no business winning. You get outshot, outchanced, outplayed. But you take advantage of just about every opportunity you get, and you get a standout performance from the goalie. It isn’t pretty, but this isn’t the Beauty Contest System that is college football, either. Two points is granted for every win, no matter how it looks. And two points looks mighty fine this morning.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! -- Caps versus Lightning, November 27th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!! . . .

OK, so Turkey Day (or Turkey Week, given the last three gobblers the Caps horked up) is over. Time to return to serious business, and it doesn’t get any more serious than the next five games for the –

“Business? . . . Nobody knows business like me.”

The Donald? . . . Don’t you have people to fire?

“Funny . . . maybe you should do stand up at one of my casinos.”

Really, though . . . it’s a surprise to see you here for a Caps game.

“I’m here to see that Ovechkin kid. I want to hire that kid – he’s a natural. He could sell Flyer jerseys to a Penguin fan. He could sell Melrose on shaving his head.”

Well, I think he’s got some hockey to play first . . .

“Oh, sure, sure. But watching him, it just makes me want to buy a team. I can just see the kid with ‘TRUMP’ on his jersey.”

His name is “Ovechkin.”

“The name of the team, you moron . . . The Washington Trump.”

There’s already an owner here.

“Really . . . know any teams for sale?“

Sorry . . . but maybe you could pry that football team loose from the boy wonder over in Ashburn.

“Ashburn? . . . sounds like the feeling Redskin fans have sitting on their couches watching them every Sunday.”

Hmm . . . maybe you should do stand up.

“Sure . . . well, I gotta go . . . you seen Fraser anywhere? He was going to talk to me about hair care . . . “

As for the game, Tampa Bay – the very picture of mediocrity over the first quarter of the season -- appears to have found its stride of late. The Bolts are on a three-game winning streak, beating Florida, Atlanta (in overtime), and Ottawa. Of special note to Caps fans, Martin St. Louis is 2-5-7, +4 in those three games. As if it bears noting, given his career numbers against the Caps (9-13-22 in 29 regular season games), he will be one to watch closely.

Brad Richards, who got off to somewhat of a slow start, has three goals in these last three games and is winning almost two-thirds of his draws (34 of 52).

Another player to watch, if only out of curiosity, is Nikita Alexeev. After scoring two goals in a win over the Caps on October 21st (including the game winner), he has only three goals in 16 games since.

As a team, Tampa has done the right things mostly right in their three game streak. Special teams . . . the power play is 4-14 (28.6 percent), while the Lightning have only found themselves shorthanded four times in their last two games (yielding no power play goals). The big guys are scoring (St. Louis and Richards have five of the Lightning’s last 12 goals, while defenseman Dan Boyle has chipped in three of his own). Johan Holmqvist has provided solid goaltending (3-0, 2.32, .916 in the three game winning streak).

If there is a weakness to be exploited, it is Tampa Bay’s penalty killing. While they have killed off all four of their man-short situations in the last two games, they remain last in the NHL in penalty killing (73.8 percent). If the Caps are going to get well on the power play (9-for-60 in their last 11 games), it might be against this team.

But it isn’t just the power play that is suffering lately. The Caps can’t score even strength goals . . . well, at all. In the six game winless skid, the Caps have scored a total of nine goals – six on the power play, one shorthanded, and two at even strength (both by Jakub Klepis). The possibility of having Alexander Semin return to the lineup might relieve some of the pressure off of the top line (Ovechkin is the only member of the top line with any goals in the last five games).

While scoring is clearly a problem, it isn’t the only one, and it might be a consequence of other problems. For instance, the Caps have lost the faceoff battle in each of the games on this winless slide and managed to win only 44 percent of their draws. Hard to score when you don’t have the puck. The Caps have surrendered the first goal in five of the six games. Hard to mount a lot of offense when you’re always pushing uphill against the scoreboard. Even goaltending – thus far a strength of the club – has hit a bad stretch. While it isn’t fair to blame Olaf Kolzig or Brent Johnson for every puck that skips past them, they haven’t been especially sharp in these last several games, either.

The four weeks between the holidays is not a stretch where you can win a playoff spot, but you can lose one here. And for the Caps, the schedule is quite daunting in terms of quality of opponent. The next five will be especially difficult, starting tonight. One would think the club will not lack for focus. The Caps played a better game against the Islanders than in any of the five preceding games, and that is how one climbs out of a bad streak. With that in mind . . .

Caps 4 – Lightning 3, in overtime.