Guilty!....of bad fashion

One of the enduring truths about sport is that if someone does something, and it is successful, it will be copied within an inch of its life.

Witness what JP has posted over at Japers' Rink...

The New York Islanders have changed their uniform in a transparent attempt to ride the coattails of the Buffalo Sabres from last year. Number on the right front shoulder. Given where the Isles have to play their games, and the likelihood of repeating a playoff appearance this year, the relevant comparison might not be to the Sabres. You judge...

Benchmarks, Part V -- Defensive Balance

The fifth installment in this package looks at the matter of balance in the defensive squad, as opposed to a focus on top pairs. So, what is the benchmark here?

BENCHMARK: Buffalo –

Brian Campbell
Dmitri Kalinin
Teppo Numminen
Nathan Paetsch
Jaroslav Spacek
Toni Lydman
Henrik Talinder

This group was the most balanced group of defensemen in the NHL, or at least the most successful in implementing a balanced approach to their game. Here are examples of the balance expressed by this squad:

Games: All played at least 63 games, with the exception of Tallinder, who was limited to 47 games due to a broken arm and sprained ankle.

Points: While Brian Campbell led the group with 49 points (a product of his 42 assists, tied for second on the club), the rest fell between 19 and 29 points. Tallinder had 14 points in his 47 games, which projects to 24 over a full season.

Plus/Minus: Campbell, again, stands higher than the rest of the pack with a +28 (which tracks with his points), but the rest fall neatly between +10 and +20.

Time-on-ice: If you account for the fact that Paetsch filling in for Tallinder during his injury probably means a bit less time on average for the replacement, this is a very balanced group in this regard. Looking at the top six defensemen in playing time (excluding Paetsch), the lowest average was 19:09 (Spacek), while the highest was Campbell (21:52). The shifts-per-game are similarly distributed among the top-six – 22.6 at the low end, 26.3 at the top.

Responsibility: Here is a revealing set of numbers. Of the five players who registered at least 62 games, each led the defense in at least one noteworthy category:

Hits: Lydman
Blocked Shots: Lydman
Takeaways: Kalinin
Giveaways (fewest): Spacek
Goals: Kalinin
Assists: Campbell
Plus/Minus: Campbell
PIMS: Spacek
Time-on-ice: Campbell
Shifts: Numminen

This is a remarkably balanced squad. Without what appears to be a true #1 defenseman – they seem more to have a bunch of 2-3-4 types – such balance was necessary for the Sabres to realize the success they’ve achieved over the past two years.

Capitals (projected top six):

Brian Pothier
Tom Poti
Shaone Morrisonn
Steve Eminger
Milan Jurcina
Mike Green

First, this group is presented for argument only. It is certainly possible that the Caps will add a blueliner before or during training camp, and there is enough congestion in the group that guys like Josef Boumedienne, John Erskine, Jeff Schultz, or even a Karl Alzner could join the mix. That would only seem to bolster the argument that the Caps are a squad of equals in many respects, that they do not -- as offered in the benchmark on “top pairs” -- yet have a true top pair among their defensemen.

The returning defensemen in the above group (Pothier, Morrisonn, Eminger, Juricna, Green) was somewhat balanced, but that’s not necessarily a positive. For example:

-- The group had a total of 11 goals in 328 man-games (Jurcina had two others with Boston before being traded to Washington). None had more than three (Pothier, Morrisonn). Meanwhile, Buffalo’s top-five in games played had 24 goals in 355 man-games. None had more than seven (Kalinin).

-- The Washington group had 68 assists. The Buffalo group had 124 assists

-- Brian Pothier, who was among the league leaders in ice time early in the year, ended up with 23:59 for the season. After that, Morrisonn and Eminger are close (20:57, 18:56), then there are Jurcina and Green (16:02, 15:29). From top-to-bottom, the range in shifts is 9.2 per game with Pothier at the top (28.8), Green at the bottom (19.6). Buffalo had a range of only 3.7 shifts per game from top to bottom, barely a shift per period.

-- In terms of the spread of responsibility, it breaks down like this:

Hits: Morrisonn
Blocked Shots: Pothier
Takeaways: Morrisonn
Giveaways (fewest): Jurcina
Goals: Jurcina
Assists: Pothier
Plus/Minus: Morrisonn
PIMS: Morrisonn
Time-on-ice: Pothier
Shifts: Morrisonn

Jurcina’s full-year totals figure into the above, so given the split of his time between Boston and Washington, clearly Pothier and Morrisonn dominated the statistical summary. The difficulty is that Pothier and Morrisonn do not (yet) constitute the sort of top-pair that should dominate the numbers on a top-flight team. The Caps have the sort of talent and experience as they enter the season to be more of a balanced squad on the blue line. But to do that, some folks need to step up.

Steve Eminger certainly could take the next step. Although his full-year numbers were not especially noteworthy, he had a better second half than first half. That is encouraging.

Milan Jurcina made a good first impression on the club (note his new contract) and its fans, but this year the task at hand is to show that last year was not merely an impression.

Mike Green (or Jeff Schultz, for that matter) needs to cast off the Bear jersey for good at some point. If they can do so this year, either could be a contributor to a solid back line.

Tom Poti gets added to this mix. His reputation is uneven – while he has talent in the offensive zone and gives the Caps a power-play option they lacked last year, the complaints about him are that he is inconsistent in his own zone and does not use his size as effectively as he could.

No group has more potential on this club, and none is fraught with more uncertainty. The template for performance does not, it seems to me, include trying to emulate the Anaheim Ducks – the Caps just do not have the talent or experience for that. But Buffalo serves as a useful benchmark, the sort of club that does not have a single dominating defenseman or a “top pair” in the conventional sense of the term. The Caps’ strength is in depth, provided guys with potential and talent make the sort of progress to be hoped and expected of them.

Ted's Getting Serious

The Boss has been on a mini-roll the past few days, taking up the matter of whether the brain trust (for lack of a more suitable, less family-friendly term) at WTEM-980AM radio "get it" in their coverage of soccer and, by extension, hockey.

Today, he fires another broadside and adds a twist, suggesting the possibility of a federation of Caps-affiliated bloggers (who, in Ted's terminology, would form a "keiretsu").

There is already a hockey bloggers group on one of the major social networking sites, and now this.

Bloggers of the world, unite!

Scribbles...

We're Number Two!!!

ESPN conducted a poll of a panel of experts to determine the toughest sport of all. The panel concluded that boxing was the sport that demanded the most of its participants across ten measures from endurance to speed to durability.*

Ice hockey came in second. But hockey came in first in analytic aptitude, defined as "the ability to evaluate and react appropriately to strategic situations. Example: Joe Montana reading a defense; basketball point guard on a fast break." So the next time some snooty "hockey is a sport played by and for goons" swell comes by turning his nose up at those who play and follow the fastest team sport on earth, remind him . . .



. . . yeah, and we're the smartest, too.



* Thanks to Kolzig37 on The Official for pointing the way.

Benchmarks, Part IV -- Top Pair

It’s time to turn to the defense in the look at benchmarks, and that means a look at the “top pair.”

BENCHMARK: Ottawa -- Chris Phillips, Anton Volchenkov

Nope, it’s not Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer out of Anaheim, who finished 2^nd and 3^rd in the Norris Trophy voting, since Pronger spent a lot of time paired with Sean O’Donnell, and Niedermayer with Francois Beauchemin, especially late in the year. It’s not Sergei Zubov and Philippe Boucher, who finished 9^th/12^th in the Norris voting, for the same reason – they weren’t a pair much of the time. One might have made a case for Dion Phaneuf and Robyn Regehr in Calgary, but while they were paired early in the year, they were less so late in the year.

Phillips and Volchenkov, both of whom finished in the top-25 of the Norris voting, were actually a pair. That is a suitable benchmark, as long as we’re clear that we’re not talking about the top defensemen on a club (that would have brought us, once more, to Anaheim).

Phillips and Volchenkov stepped into a void in Ottawa when Wade Redden struggled (compared to his own history) and Andrej Meszaros had something of a sophomore slump (-15 for the year, by far the worst on the team). These two were a combined 9-36-45, which make them pretty much Tom Poti (6-38-44), statistically, on offense. But, they were a combined +73 (Poti was -1, to complete the comparison).

Phillips – a former first-overall draft pick (1996) – finally performed at a level that served to justify such a lofty pick. In eight seasons prior to 2006-2007, he’d never scored as many goals as he did last season (eight), earned more assists (18) or points (26), or finished with a higher plus-minus rating (36, fourth in the league).

Volchenkov also had a coming-out party of sorts. While he did not set a personal high in goals, he did in assists (18) and total points (19), while setting a personal high in plus-minus (+37, third in the league behind teammate Tom Preissing and Scott Niedermayer, each with +40). But what set Volchenkov apart was his prowess at blocking shots, which (given the premium on getting pucks to the net) seems to be the new “in” statistic among defensemen in the new NHL. Volchenkov led the NHL in blocked shots with 273. He repeated the feat in the playoffs with 80 (Phillips was second with 56…seems to have rubbed off).

These two complemented one another nicely. Phillips was, if not an “offensive” defenseman, a defenseman whose shot had to be respected and who played more defense than one might expect an “offensive” defenseman to play. Volchenkov was, if not the big hitter that his reputation suggested, played enough of a physical brand of defense and kept a lot of shots from making their way to goalie Ray Emery. One could almost see in the playoffs his shot-blocking ability start to get into the heads of opponents who would look for other angles and openings when Volchenkov was on the ice.

Neither is surely among the top-five defensemen in the NHL, but this isn’t a Chris Pronger-Scott Niedermayer sort of benchmark. It is two guys who played together and played together well, as well as just about any other pair one might think of from the 2006-2007 season.

Capitals (projected): who knows?

Sounds like a cop-out, doesn’t it? Well, it’s a reflection of the unsettled nature of the blue line and the fact that as yet, no defenseman has truly emerged as a top-pair sort. It isn’t even clear what the pairings might be. If one were to look for “Phillips” types, that might include: Brian Pothier, Steve Eminger, Tom Poti, Mike Green (Karl Alzner is not a part of this conversation unless he can worm his way into it in camp). If you’re looking for the “Volchenkov” types (and yes, the comparisons can be somewhat vague or only distantly related), that might include: Milan Jurcina, Shaone Morrisonn, John Erskine, Jeff Schultz.

Now…pair ‘em up (we’ll leave the left-versus-right side for another day).

Not so easy, is it? One (well, me, for the sake of argument) could offer pairs that might include: Jurcina-Poti, Eminger-Morrisonn, Pothier-Green (and note there is no “Volchenkov” type there on that third pair…the Caps do lack depth in physical defensemen). Is there a clear top pair there?

The fact is that the Capitals, either as a product of talent or the state of development, do not have a pair that compares to Phillips/Volchenkov as a top pairing. Of the five returning defensemen in that group for the Caps (excluding Poti), there is a total of 861 games of regular-season experience. Phillips and Volchenkov have 847 games, and they have 138 games of NHL playoff experience. The five returning Caps have 16, all with Brian Pothier.

It’s going to take time sorting things out on the Caps’ blue line. That isn’t a prescription for disaster; in fact, there is another comparison that fits better (and will be taken up later). But despite defense now being the deepest group on the club (in terms of players and prospects), there is no “top pair” here as the notion is traditionally held. Whether one will emerge is something that will be sorted out in time. The Caps’ defense still is truly a work in progress.

Benchmarks, Part III -- The "In Your Face" Line

In the third of this look at benchmarks we’re down to the nuts and bolts of a club – the checking line . . .

BENCHMARK: Anaheim – Rob Niedermayer, Samuel Pahlsson, Travis Moen

It is tempting here to go with the New Jersey Devils checking line as the benchmark, but the Ducks and Devils had an important common opponent late in the year – the Ottawa Senators in the playoffs and the “top line” benchmark. The Ottawa top line was 9-14-23, +18 in a five-game series win in the conference semi-final against New Jersey, but they managed only 5-3-8, -9 in a five-game series loss in the final to Anaheim. Anaheim gets the nod.

This trio was at the bottom of the team ranking in plus-minus for the regular season (occupying three of the bottom four slots), but that is not surprising. The New Jersey group of John Madden, Jay Pandolfo, and Sergei Brylin occupied a similar ranking with the Devils in the regular season, although this group was broken up for much of the later stages of the playoff series with the Senators.

The Anaheim trio was a combined -16 over 82 regular season games and an amazing combined +24 in 21 playoff games. To be a combined -1 per five games against other club’s top scoring lines, when your line isn’t necessarily a high scoring group (combined 24-39-63) is noteworthy. To be a +24 in 21 games against top-flight competition is borderline insane. Part of the bump in playoff performance is explained by an increase in this group’s scoring rate (34 points in 63 man-games (0.54/game), versus 63 points in 246 man-games (0.26/game)), but clearly this group became a true “shut-down” line.

The Capitals (projected) – Matt Pettinger, Boyd Gordon, Chris Clark

This has the potential of being a very dynamic line for the Caps, almost a hybrid checking/scoring line:

-- Chris Clark, who has set career bests in goal scoring in each of his two years with the Caps (20 in 2005-2006, 30 last season), has a knack for finding the back of the net without being a pure shooter – he finds a way.

-- Matt Pettinger, when he can avoid injury (he’s missed 29 games over the last two years), has quietly improved his own goal scoring production the past couple of years (20 in 2005-2006, 16 last year) without sacrificing a crash-and-bang style.

-- Boyd Gordon – “Muffin,” if you will – is not a shooter in the sense Ovechkin or Semin are, or even Clark for that matter, but has shown goal-scoring progress in his junior (10-12-22-33 in his four years at Red Deer) and minor-league (5-17-16 over three years, the last in only 58 games at Portland) development. That might be an untapped element of his game at this level.

This is a group that could combine for 50 goals…but that is not what their principal (or even most valuable) role could be. They could be a real throwback to the “Plumbers Line" (Gaetan Duchesne, Greg Adams, and Craig Laughlin) – a lunch pail group that is difficult to play against, yet can pot the occasional (or even more than occasional) goal. The Peerless thinks this group has it in them to be not only the best “in your face” line (we find “checking line” a bit limiting here) in the history of the franchise, but one of the best in the league this year. Clark is a smart, gritty (to the point of being almost “bionic”), deceptively talented player at both ends of the ice. And, he is a natural (as opposed to a forced or manufactured) leader. Gordon is intelligent, good at the little things, and extremely dependable. Pettinger is the orneriest member of the trio who has the capacity to get under an opponent’s skin in the defensive zone, then score at the other.

The season might start without this group in place. Clark could find himself playing on the right side of either of the top two lines (more likely the top line, given his recent history with Ovechkin). But, if things fall the right way (as in, the Caps find a scoring winger to play on one of those top two lines), this group could come to be what defines the Caps’ style this year – important for a club that seems to be struggling with a defining personality -- and could be the key to whether they fall just short of the playoffs or find themselves in the middle of the spring mix.

Can this group meet the benchmark set by Anaheim last year? Given its role, that is a tougher question to answer than in the other two benchmark cases. Anaheim’s group had the benefit of an excellent back line to complement it. The Caps are not likely to have that kind of support for this group. Clark, Pettinger, and Gordon could play very well and get lost in the noise of the inexperience that is still what defines the Caps’ blue line.

There is also the matter of when (or even if) this group plays as a unit. Much depends on what happens with the top two lines and where Chris Clark ends up. If Clark if playing on one of the top two lines, this line might see Brian Sutherby moved into the center position and Boyd Gordon moved over. It could create an opening for David Steckel. There are possibilities here, but the best “in your face” line option would appear to be the Pettinger-Gordon-Clark trio…and a mighty fine one it could be.

Benchmarks, Part II -- The Second Line

Next up in this look at benchmarks from the 2006-2007 season to which the Caps may be compared, the second line…

BENCHMARK: “The Kid Line” – Anaheim

The reason this group is selected as a benchmark is that the Caps’ second line could be a relatively inexperienced one (this assumes Chris Clark is not on one of the top two lines). The Anaheim group of last year -- Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Dustin Penner – having only 132 games of combined experience coming into the 2006-2007 season, certainly, as Nuke LaLoosh might have put it in ‘Bull Durham,” announced their presence with authority. All three played in all 82 regular season games and registered a combined 71-76-147, +27. The thing is, though, this production was achieved with less ice time than one might think. None of the three were among the Ducks’ top ten in regular season ice time per game. In fact, the three averaged only 13:50 per game, per man. Perhaps most stunning among the statistics in the context of their ice time is that the three combined for 15 game-winning/overtime goals – almost a third of Anaheim’s win total.

In the playoffs these three would see their ice time increase to an average of 17:25 per man, and the three would hold their own on the score sheet, going a combined 16-24-40, +10 in 21 games. They combined for six game-winning goals in Anaheim’s march to the Stanley Cup.

Physically, it was an imposing group. Averaging 6’3”, 219 pounds, they could physically dominate opponents. But for such a young group, and given the reputation of the Ducks as a group, it was a relatively disciplined group. They amassed only 179 combined penalty minutes during the regular season, among which were five major penalties (all for fighting…boys will be boys) and a misconduct.

One could argue whether this was the best second line in the NHL last year, but that’s not the point here. They constituted a very young, very green unit that rose to the occasion and played an integral role in the Ducks’ success last year. Without their level of play, Anaheim arguably doesn’t make the finals of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Given where the Caps stand in their development, they are the appropriate benchmark to assess the Caps’ prospects.

The Capitals (projected): Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, Eric Fehr

First off, we recognize that it is at least as likely that Chris Clark starts on the right side of this line to open the year. A veteran presence might be what Semin (who can be undisciplined) and Backstrom (a rookie) will need. But Fehr projects, at some point, to be a top-two line right winger. This could be that year, and for purposes of argument, we’ll put him here.

The three will bring a total of 154 games of experience into the 2007-2008 season, virtually all of them accumulated by Semin (129 games). Backstrom will bring a respectable 110 games of experience from the Swedish Elite League (Brynas), having delayed his entry into the NHL for a season to play an additional year in Sweden. But it isn’t the NHL in style, talent, or dimensions. Whatever his talents, a period of familiarizing himself with the nature of North American hockey will be necessary. In the worst-case scenario, he does not start the year as the second line center, which will create a substantial amount of havoc with the lineup. In the best-case scenario, he slides seamlessly into the position and permits Alexander Semin to take the next step toward being one of the most feared snipers in the league.

Semin has a world of talent, both in shooting and handling the puck, but he also seems to have a world of discipline to gain in certain aspects of his game. If he can make the next leap in the mental aspect of his game to match what is possible at the business end of his stick, he can tap deeper into his considerable potential. What should give Caps fans hope is that Semin scored 38 goals last year without the benefit of a true playmaking center on the roster. The trick is for the sniper to let others (well, Backstrom) find him in shooting space, rather than commandeering the puck for long stretches and taking his linemates out of the play.

Fehr is a wild card here. He was put on the shelf last year just as he was starting to look like he had an inkling of what was going on out on the ice. He’s had a steady improvement in his goal-scoring progression at each stop in his brief career (11-26-50-59 in juniors; 25 in 70 games, then 22 in 40 games – which projects to 39 in 70 games – at Hershey). Nothing is a given in the last big jump to the major league level, but there is little to suggest he will not be a goal scorer at the NHL level. Time and improved health (a back injury shelved him last year) are the keys with him.

As a group, they are not the imposing physical specimens that comprise the Anaheim group. Semin and Backstrom are “new-NHL” types in terms of Semin’s speed and offensive flair, and Backstrom’s described ability to see the ice and think the game well. Fehr can be the beneficiary of all that skill possessed by his linemates. He need only finish Backstrom’s passes or Semin’s loose change, and play some earnest defense to complete the line.

If this trio mines any depth of their potential, they will be an improvement on a club that had no reliable center or right wing on the second line last year. But it has a long way to go to approach the benchmark of Anaheim’s “Kid Line” from last year. Think of it though -- at this time last year, who would have thought Getzlaf, Penner, and Perry would be a line with a name attached to it?

I’ll call it “The SNICKER Line” – Semin/NICKlas Backstrom/ERic Fehr.

The Peerless just hopes it refers to their sweet play and not as the result of a punch line.

Benchmarks, Part I -- Top Line

We’re getting close to the start of training camp, when every team has dreams of carrying the Stanley Cup around the ice in June. It’s time to start looking at the year ahead, and The Peerless is going to start by looking at benchmarks. How do the Caps stand up in several areas compared to what are arguably the best of their type from last year?

We start with the “top line”

BENCHMARK: Ottawa: Dany Heatley, Jason Spezza, Daniel Alfredsson

The Ottawa trio was a combined 113-116-279, +92 last year, constituting the top three scorers on the Senators’ squad. They were 28-38-66, +13 in 20 playoff games. The days of top lines with catchy names seem to have passed, but this trio is as close as any in the NHL in recalling the days of a dominating top line. They complement each other well, with Alfredsson the veteran (783 of the total 1,385 games of experience this trio has) with two-way talent, Spezza a gifted passer, and Heatley the franchise forward equally adept at passing, shooting, and playing in traffic. As one might expect, they lead the team’s forwards in ice time, but they were not overworked by any means. Alfredsson and Heatley averaged a bit more than 21 minutes a game, while Spezza logged just over 19 minutes. Ottawa’s depth provided the opportunity to keep this group fresh, but they were the group against which a club had to game plan. It is not a perfect group, to be sure – Spezza still can be maddeningly anonymous from time to time, Alfredsson (until last year) had a history of playoff problems, and Heatley has spells of trying to be too cute with his passing – but this line is the current standard for “top line” in the NHL, based on their performance last year.

The Capitals (projected): Alexander Ovechkin, Michael Nylander, Viktor Kozlov

This group did not play together last year, obviously. In fact, no two of them played together. Ovechkin and Kozlov have some history together in Russia, but this group appears likely to need some time to find their chemical balance. For purposes of comparison with the benchmark (and out of a sense of hopefulness), the three were a combined 97-129-226, +5 last year. But here’s the thing. That is a combined performance of 33-44-77, +2 per 82 games. The Caps’ top line last year of Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Chris Clark was a combined 96-102-198, -45. Per 82 games, that was 37-39-76, -17. The weak link here, if there is one offensively, is Kozlov (25-26-51 last year in 81 games). Then again, the Islanders had only one player who finished the year in the top-75 in scoring, too (Jason Blake; we’re not counting late-season addition Ryan Smyth).

But Kozlov is the wild card. Consistency has been an issue with him over his entire career, especially in the offensive end of the rink. He’s never been close to being a point-a-game player (70 points in 80 games for Florida in 1999-2000 is as close as he’s come), although he’s had that potential to do so. If he plays on the right side – and stays there (we’ll get to this in another benchmark – the second line), he might find the consistency that has eluded him. Having a pure finisher in Alexander Ovechkin will help him take advantage of his ability to see the ice and pass well; Nylander’s ability to create space with puck possession could give Kozlov shooting opportunities he’s not had often over his career.

Can this trio meet the benchmark set by the Ottawa top line? No. Only the most addled-with-optimism Caps fan could conceive of such a thing. Talent-wise, this group falls far short of the Ottawa trio, especially on the right side. But that isn’t a prediction of doom, either. This group has the potential to be among the most dangerous top lines in the NHL this season, although it wouldn’t seem that such will be the case in the first month or two. As they familiarize themselves with one another, one can conceive of a group that complements one another in a manner similar to (if not quite as prolifically) as the Ottawa group. Where this group could improve markedly on last year’s edition for the Caps is in that plus-minus figure. They should manage to hold on to the puck for longer periods than has been the case the past two years. Getting 250 points out of this line is not out of the question, if it stays healthy (knock on wood – combined they missed a total of four games last year). More than that, it should improve dramatically the -45 put up by the top line last year. Achieving both would go a long way to returning the Caps to the playoffs.

Hockey Equinox

There are 115 days from the last game of the 2007 Stanley Cup Finals to opening night of the 2007-2008 season.

Today is day 58 in that sojourn.

From here, it's all downhill to opening night.

Arbitration

30 players...19 settled before hearings, 10 still scheduled, one actually going through with it...

Brooks Laich.


edit: OK, two...the Stars' Antti Miettinen was awarded a one-year, $885,000 contract on Monday

The War Between the States

The Peerless was not able to attend the festivities honoring Dave Fay this afternoon, but “The Voice of God,” John Facenda weighs in . . .

On the frozen tundra of Kettler Capitals Iceplex the players, clad in blue and gray, harkened back to the armies of Virginia and Maryland in the War Between the States…hard men and women defending their honor and virtue. The skates slashing into the freshly surfaced ice were like those sabers unsheathed in preparation for battle so long ago. The pucks ricocheting off the glass were the sound of minie ball fired by elite marksmen.

Upon the drop of the puck, the Army of the Potomac established a territorial advantage that they would not soon relinquish. Waves of blue-clad northerners swept through the Virginia end of the ice like a cold wind from White Flint Mall. The Army of Northern Virginia fought gallantly, but yielded two goals before the game was ten minutes old. A rout was in the offing, but the rebels summoned the courage and audacity of their ancient brethren to halve the deficit as the period was waning.

But just as the Virginians were climbing back into the battle, the comeback was thwarted by a Maryland goal with one-tenth of a second remaining in the period. It would be a grim harbinger of what was to come in the second period as the Marylanders redoubled their efforts in an assault on the Virginians. The speed and swiftness of the Marylanders proved too much for the Virginians to cope with in that pivotal second period…the Union forged a wide margin to put the Southerners on the verge of a level of carnage not seen since…well, in a long, long time.

The second period ended with the Virginians licking their wounds, which was amazing in itself given all the equipment they were wearing. The Marylanders appeared confident to the point of giddiness, the giddiness of a schoolboy dreaming of a Sunday afternoon when he could take a turn on the fabled Kettler Capitals Iceplex ice sheet.

But a hockey game is three periods long, and the Virginians were of a mind to provide the Marylanders with a lesson that hard reality. In a counter attack that lacked only for the spine-chilling rebel yell, the Virginians stormed the Maryland zone, peppering the goal with puck after puck. It was a prodigious display of hockey aplomb, but for all their efforts, they could only fight the team in blue to a standoff in the final stanza. The Marylanders held on for a 16-8 win in a contest that was much, much closer than the final score indicated.

And so, on the frozen tundra of Kettler Capitals Iceplex, another chapter in the storied rivalry between the north and south was written in the struggle to possess Lord Brown's Boot. Skaters stooped by age will regale their grandchildren with the exploits of this day. Bull Run.…Antietam....Gettysburg….Kettler…battles in the civil war that will transcend history.

**********

Don't mistake any of the above for anything but respect for all involved. The game was played in honor of Dave Fay, who passed way earlier this month after a long battle with cancer. The proceeds were donated to "Hockey Fights Cancer," a joint initiative founded in December 1998 by the National Hockey League Players' Association and the National Hockey League to raise money and awareness for hockey's most important fight. It is for that reason that while all of the members of the Virginia and Maryland teams represented themselves well on the ice, the three stars have to go to Gavin Toner, Rob Keaton, and Ben Wilson, for their work in putcanceronice.org.

Idiots Need Work, Too.

Newsday reports that former player, general manager, and drooling idiot (ok, he's still that) Mike Milbury will replace the equally cognitively challenged Brett Hull in the NBC studio for NHL telecasts this upcoming season.

Milbury, whose main claims to hockey fame are whacking a fan with his own shoe and making obscenely stupid trades, will join Pierre McGuire as part of his effort to pursue, as he put it, "things I'm much more passionate about than ticket sales."

Given that he also said that, "the first thing is, you only have to work 25 days out of the year...It's kind of like stealing money," one can only think that what he's passionate about is mailing in a few weekends a year and getting paid for it.

At least he can't do the damage to a major television network (given how many actually watch) that he did to hockey front offices. As he once famously stated about an agent, “It's too bad he lives in the city. He's depriving some small village of a pretty good idiot.”

Mike would know.

If there is one consoldation, perhaps he'll do this to Pierre McGuire when McGuire waxes rhapsodic once too often about Sidney Crosby...

Sittin' at the end of the bar...

What a week....didja miss me? Seems this week's common theme (as it is much of the time in pro sports these days) is money...

Want to get rich? Forget Powerball, be a Sabre. This summer, four Sabres signed contracts for a combined 26 years and $161.25 million. Daniel Briere, Thomas Vanek, Chris Drury, and Derek Roy . . . at those salaries, you’d think they were the Yankees' starting rotation.

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Look up “futility” in the dictionary . . . no doubt you will see this picture:

Oilers’ GM Kevin Lowe has offered two players – the Sabres' Thomas Vanek and the Ducks' Dustin Penner -- offer sheets of a combined 12 years a $71.5 million. Neither will play a minute for the Oilers. The adjectives used by Ducks’ GM Brian Burke with respect to the behavior of Lowe – “gutless” (for Burke allegedly getting notice of the offer by fax from the player’s agent, not Lowe), “classless” (regarding the timing of the move, stepping on the B.C. Hockey Hall of Fame ceremony, which included Burke’s induction) -- well, there won’t be any holiday greetings exchanged this December. And to think…it was Burke to whom Lowe turned to take the disgruntled-with-Edmonton Chris Pronger, not an inconsequential part of the Ducks Cup-winning squad. Well, guess we need a soap opera in these long, hot days of July.

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Brooks Laich got a one-year, $725,000 deal via arbitration. Laich’s deal is interesting in juxtaposition with that given the departed Jiri Novotny ($750,000 cap hit in each of the next two years) by Columbus. If you look at their respective career statistics, they are virtually identical on a per-82 game basis:

Laich: 8-14-22, -7, 31 PIMS
Novotny: 8-14-22, -9, 28 PIMS

Laich is 50 days older, so that isn’t much of a difference, either. Novotny is (surprisingly, if you believe NHL stats) the bigger hitter – 72 to 56 – but that’s a subjective measure. Laich has the virtue of being more versatile and appears to be the better faceoff man. In this small comparison, Laich is a comparative bargain, even with the approximately 20 percent increase in salary, both in price and terms. And, it affords the player an opportunity for a bigger payday next year.

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Milan Jurcina avoided arbitration by signing a two-year, $1,762,500 deal. Here is the defenseman neighborhood (plus or minus $25,000) he lives in with his $850,000 salary this year:

Chris Chelios
Jack Johnson
Lasse Kukkonen
Branislav Mezei
Christoph Schubert
Dennis Seidenberg
Brent Burns
Shane O’Brien

If you account for Chelios (a fossil veteran who is winding down his career) and Johnson (who is likely to see larger paydays down the road), Jurcina fits well in this neck of the salary woods. But it is who Jurcina left behind in Boston that serves as an interesting comparison. Compared to Andrew Ference ($1,235,000 salary this year) and Andrew Alberts ($1,100,000), Jurcina must be considered a bargain.

The thing is, though, with Laich and Jurcina looking like comparative bargains at the prices they will command this year, are the Caps going to assume additional payroll by trading lower priced assets for a higher priced veteran on defense?

The summer continues…

What this off season might mean to two left wings

It is hard to overemphasize the effect the change in centers on the top two lines is likely to have on next year’s Capitals club. Let’s look first at the top line.

In 2006-2007, up to the trading deadline, the top line of Alexander Ovechkin, Dainius Zubrus, and Chris Clark had a total of 84 goals. But the oddity was that Dainius Zubrus had only 32 assists. Had that pace played out over the entire year, Zubrus would have ended up with 42 assists. That would have been good for a tie for 26^th among centers and a tie for 45^th among all forwards in the NHL last year. Those are not necessarily bad figures, but on a line with a goal scorer such as Alexander Ovechkin more might be expected out of that position.

However, it might be the second line where the changes will be felt more keenly. The pivot on the second line was shuffled around quite a bit last year, itself a problem. Kris Beech might have had the most opportunities in that spot and finished the year with only 26 points. Even if you sum the production of Beech, Jiri Novotny, Brian Sutherby, and Brooks Laich, you find this composite center having a finish with the Caps of 23-42-65. Without putting undue pressure on the rookie, Nicklas Backstrom, he should settle into the range of those numbers for the season (perhaps with a few fewer goals and a few more assists).

It makes Alexander Semin’s year on offense all that more noteworthy and could signal a much bigger year this coming season from the young left wing. Semin was 38-35-73 last year, but he was 17-21-38 on the power play (he led the Caps in power play scoring), leaving him “only 21-14-35 at even strength. If there is any production out of the second line center, it could result in a substantial improvement in Semin’s scoring at even strength.

That Ovechkin and Semin could combine for 84 goals last year is quite an accomplishment, given the depth of centers last year, especially on the second line. This year, they could be the league’s top 1-2 goal-scoring tandem.

"Soccer has already surpassed hockey on the American sports landscape...."

It's a throw-away line in the fourth paragraph of a column by the Washington Post's Michael Wilbon last Friday morning. Mike's column concerns itself with professional soccer and the curiosity that is David Beckham.

It is the only time in the article that the word "hockey" appears, but it is in the paragraph in which it doesn't appear that might be more significant to the sport:

"Soccer is an international sport and has been for decades. Basketball is an international sport and has been since the 1970s. People all over the globe play both regularly, and support their own leagues. Baseball, slowly, has extended its international reach, but seems to have enough restraint to know that selling a few jerseys overseas and scheduling games there on a consistent basis are two wildly different things."

With the exception of soccer, what sport is more "international" than hockey? Europe is teeming with hockey leagues. 46 countries were represented in the IIHF world rankings for 2007; 33 in the women's rankings. The NHL is represented by countries "A" (Austria) to "Z" (if you accept the NHL's symbol for South Africa, "ZAF," the birthplace of Olaf Kolzig). Robyn Regehr was born in Recife, Brazil, for heaven's sake (wonder if he plays soccer).

Is it this "international" quality a burden for soccer in the US? for hockey?

Joni signs a deal...thoughts on the 2002 draft class five years later

Joni Pitkanen signed a one-year deal with Edmonton for $2.4 million yesterday. It gets The Peerless to thinking, that the top of the 2002 draft is turning out to have been a real disappointment. After five years, here are the top-15:

1. Rick Nash (Columbus). Had a big year in 2003-2004 (41 goals), but otherwise has been a merely a decent scorer (he’s had 57 points twice) and is -65 in 283 games over his career. Does he play on a bad team, or does he not have the stuff to lift the Blue Jackets higher?

2. Kari Lehtonen (Atlanta). Arguably the class of this class and is perhaps the best young (under-25) goaltender in the game. His development has been what you’d ask for (went from 20 to 38 wins in his two AHL years, and then has gone from 20 to 34 wins in his two full NHL seasons).

3. Jay Bouwmeester (Florida). He’s a fabulous skater. Sometimes, that term is used much like “she has a nice personality” is used to describe women. Not here. But Bouwmeester also seems to lack the physical dimension to his game that his size suggests and tends to play “meekly” from time to time.

4. Joni Pitkanen (Philadelphia). The Flyers traded Ruslan Fedotenko, and two second round picks for the chance to draft Pitkanen, and five years later he is shipped off (ironically, Joffrey Lupul, who appears below, is part of the return). As bad a year as the Flyers had last year, and Pitkanen’s role in it (-25) makes Philadelphia a hard town to play in.

5. Ryan Whitney (Pittsburgh). Has had a rather gentle glide path into the NHL for such a high pick (he didn’t finish his first full season until he was 23). He had a good year last year, but the question with him – as with the entire Pittsburgh squad, given that everyone seemed to have a career year -- is “can they do it again?”

6. Scottie Upshall (Nashville). He will be 24 in the first week of the upcoming season and has not yet played more than 48 games in an NHL season. He was sent to the Flyers for Peter Forsberg, but only as part of a larger package than included a first and a 3^rd round pick. He has the look of being a decent third-liner some day, but….when?

7. Joffrey Lupul (Anaheim). When Lupul takes the ice on opening night, he will be doing so with his third team, and he will have just turned 24. He has decent offensive instincts, but defensively leaves much to be desired. He’s had 61 games (of 162) on the minus side of the ledger the last two years, one of which was with a 43-win team in Anaheim.

8. Pierre-Marc Bouchard (Minnesota). He’s the kind of guy who can get lost, given where he plays, but he’s had pretty good progress. He is not yet an elite scorer, but in the new league a guy of his comparatively small stature could flourish. 20 goals last year might just be a start.

9. Petr Taticek (Florida). Arguably the biggest bust of the first round. He has as many games played in the NHL as he has teams for which he has been under contract (three). It would be something of a surprise to see him in the NHL (he played in Europe in 2006-2007 after a very brief stint in Hershey of the AHL).

10. Eric Nystrom (Calgary). Well?...he’s 24 years old and has two NHL games of experience. He has the pedigree (son of Bob Nystrom), which might work against him – the burden of expectations. He was re-signed by Calgary, so they must see a future for him, but he hasn’t yet taken that next step.

11. Keith Ballard (Buffalo). Another guy with his third team (drafted by Buffalo, traded to Colorado, traded to Phoenix). But unlike the path most three-team guys at the age of 24 might be expected to take, he looks like he could have a productive NHL career. 5-22-27, -7, on what was a bad team in Phoenix last year is not a bad point to be at this juncture.

12. Steve Eminger (Washington). Drafted with the expectation of being a top-pair defenseman, he is now in jeopardy of being passed by as a deep cohort of Capitals prospects moves up the development chain. Part of his problem might have been in his being asked to assume a more “defensive” role last year than the two-way role he might be better suited to, and his defense suffered. But something that Caps fans might consider – he was -11 by New Years and only -3 the rest of the way on what was a poor defensive team.

13. Alexander Semin (Washington). Might be the biggest achiever among the skaters in this class so far (although goaltender Lehtonen projects as the better player). He was 13^th in the league in goal-scoring last year (tied for fourth in power play goals) and, with Alexander Ovechkin, was part of the third best one-two goal-scoring punch (84, tied with Heatley/Spezza of Ottawa) in the league last year to Tampa Bay (Lecavalier/St. Louis – 95). But, he seems to lack maturity.

14. Chris Higgins (Montreal). Suffered a variety of injuries and illness last year to limit him to 61 games, but still managed 22 goals. Looks to be a solid two-way, second-line wing who can net 25-30 goals a year.

15. Jesse Niinimaki (Edmonton). Has played 24 games in North America – all with Edmonton (the Roadrunners of the AHL, not Oilers of the NHL), and that was in 2004-2005. You have to wonder if that is about it for his pro career on this side of the lake.

Do any of these guys have “star” written on them? Will any of them have that 15-year career that makes them a no-brainer for the Hockey Hall of Fame? The Peerless thinks that of all these players, only Kari Lehtonen has that potential. Others might reach that level, but it is not obvious at the moment – five years after this draft – that any of them will.

Hey!...Look Over There----->

See that link...up at the top?...Click on it. The PCOI guys are lacing their skates up for a good cause this month, "Hockey Fights Cancer," in honor of Dave Fay, who passed away earlier this week.

It's a great and deserving cause. If you can contribute, please do.

Anaheim will not repeat as Stanley Cup champion

Consider that the first prognostication of the 2007-2008 season. How do we arrive at it? Simple....

The Detroit Red Wings

Since the Red Wings won back-to-back Cups following the 1997-1998 season (yes, when they beat the Caps), no team has won Cups in consecutive years. Only New Jersey has appeared in consecutive finals (1999-2000 and 2000-2001). Eleven different teams have appeared in the finals since Detroit's 1998 Cup.

Why is this so? The Peerless thinks that obvious factor is roster turnover. The Peerless also thinks that the obvious factor could very well be wrong.

Anaheim is the best team at the moment -- on paper -- but there is a reason in recent history why they will not repeat. I think the short off-season is really an underrated factor in a club's likelihood for success in the following season. Anaheim will have a 115-day break between the Cup-clinching game on June 6th and opening night of the 2007-2008 season on September 29th. Compare that with baseball (St. Louis had 155 days from their World Series-clincher in 2006 to opening day 2007), football (the Colts will have 214 days from their Super Bowl win in February to opening night in September), and basketball (the Miami Heat had 133 days from winning the NBA title in June 2006 to opening night in October). A team's ability (or inability) to refresh after a grueling playoff grind that requires 16 wins over four series from mid-April to early-June might be the factor to pay attention to in figuring out who should or should not be a favorite in the Cup sweepstakes the following year.

Anaheim might be the best team in the NHL, but they will not repeat.

Dave Fay, 1940-2007

Dave Fay passed away today at the age of 67 after a long bout with cancer. There are a lot of tributes to him in the blogosphere and from various media sites. I cannot improve on the remarks of those who knew and worked with him, especially those of Mike Vogel over at Dump and Chase.

Dave has taken a lot of grief in recent months for his perceived "glass-half-empty" take on the Caps. I never had the pleasure of meeting Mr. Fay, but he impresses me as the sort who really didn't much care, and that is to his credit. He is of the "old school" of journalism, I suppose, a reporter who toils diligently in pursuit of a story and reports it in a straight-forward manner. No embellishment of the sort one sees often in the "new" media would or could ever do his reporting justice. His was of the "meat and potatoes" sort of journalism that seems less and less prevalent these days.

Dave might not have had his "A" game in recent years. That's for others to judge. But given his dogged fight against his health problems, his devotion to his craft commands respect. It is a pity that there are a lot of folks who haven't had the pleasure of following his reporting since he joined the Washington Times in 1982 and took over the Caps beat because, as he put it, "nobody else wanted to do it." His body of work, at least in my recollection of it since I moved here in 1984, was of the "must read" quality.

Last May, the Hockey Hall of Fame announced that Dave would be the recipient of this year's Elmer Ferguson Award for distinguished hockey writing. He joins a distinguished group of recipients. Those who have had the pleasure of reading Dave over their morning coffee on cold winter mornings realize that the recognition is well deserved, and that his passing leaves a void in hockey reporting that will not soon be filled.