The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Hurricanes, March 25th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, we’re here. For so long, the Caps have been hunting the Hurricanes like the great whale of yore (or Hartford). We found a fan who knows something about hunting whales, too, for some insight on the matter. Sir, your name?

"Call me Ishmael."

OK...Ishmael. The Caps have been chasing the Hurricanes for most of the last few months. I take it you have some experience of your own in chasing down the beast. Any advice?

"Aye, aye! It was that accursed white whale that razeed me; made a poor pegging lubber of me for ever and a day!... an' what you have to say is, 'I'll chase him round Good Hope, and round the Horn, and round the Norway Maelstrom, and round perdition's flames before I give him up.'"

And this would be a big day in that pursuit...

"It smells like the left wing of the day of judgment."

But now that we're finally here, it seems the boys have not yet reached their goal. They have to finish the job, isn't that right? After so long on the hunt, what do you say to your enemy?

"Towards thee I roll, thou all-destroying but unconquering whale...uh, Hurricane; to the last I grapple with thee; from hell's heart I stab at thee; for hate's sake I spit my last breath at thee."

You seem to have some anger issues, there, Ish...

"Yeah, well...I used to be a Whaler fan."

Like two fighters that have been eyeing one another for months before the inevitable match, so these two teams have been circling about one another for the past two months. Since February 1^st, they’ve been inching toward this, the first of two games that will settle the Southeast Division matter and go a long way to determining whether one or two Southeast teams (at least the second club being the Capitals) make the playoffs. The tale of the tape since February 1st:

Each are surprising in their own right. The Capitals have done it without their captain (Chris Clark), top center (Michael Nylander), and a top-four defenseman (Brian Pothier). The Hurricanes have done it without their captain and Mr. Everything – Rod Brind’Amour (out since February 14^th), Mr. Underrated – Ray Whitney (out since February 28^th), and Justin Williams (30 points in 36 games when he went out on December 20^th.

But what Carolina lost through injury, they regained through some deft – in retrospect – personnel moves...

Sergei Samsonov was left for the NHL equivalent of dead. After a 29-41-70 season with Boston in 2001-2002, it seemed the slick Russian was on his way to a solid career. However, a wrist injury limited him to eight games the following year, sending his career into a free fall. After the lockout, Samsonov struggled to reach the 50-point threshold, and the one time he would do it, in 2005-2006, he would do it playing for two different teams – Boston and Edmonton. Last year he would end up in Montreal, where his performance, to be charitable, was disappointing: 9-17-26, -4 in 63 games. That nightmare over, he found himself in Chicago, where things got worse – 23 games, no goals, demoted to Rockford in what seemed more a paper transaction in the hope he would be claimed on waivers.

He was. On January 8^th, Samsonov found himself in Carolina with perhaps the last chance to resurrect his career. He has taken advantage of the opportunity, going 13-16-29, +9 in 32 games.

There was the trade of forward Andrew Ladd to Chicago for Tuomo Ruutu. Ladd – a fourth overall draft pick in 2004 – was perhaps not developing as quickly as one might have expected for such a high draft pick, and Ruutu provided the sort of edge that the Hurricanes could use. He was also once a 23-goal scorer once upon a time, so there was at least the potential for some punch. Ruutu, however, had something of a history of injuries, missing 78 games over the 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 seasons. This might not be a consequential trade, but Ruutu has contributed 17 minutes a night for a very successful team (Carolina is 9-2-0 since this trade).

As for consequential, there was the trade of Cory Stillman and Mike Commodore to Ottawa for Joe Corvo and Patrick Eaves. This might have been interpreted (an interpretation we’d have agreed with) as “giving up” the season. Stillman and Commodore were solid, productive veterans. Eaves was a youngster and was coming to the Hurricanes hurt (shoulder injury). Corvo was a solid, if unspectacular defenseman with some offensive potential from the blue line. Well, Eaves has returned to play in 11 games (1-5-6) where he is now getting ice time minutes in the mid-teens. Corvo, meanwhile, has points in nine of 17 games and has been on the minus side of the ledger only four times since coming to Carolina. Carolina is 14-3-1 since this trade. Please note this when you’re thinking it’s big names that make the difference in trades or free agent deals.

But losing a player of Brind’Amour’s skill and leadership, and Whitney’s steady contributions isn’t necessarily the kind of thing one can address completely via trade. Someone had to step up. Eric Staal has done that, going 8-19-27, +5 in 22 games since the beginning of February. More to the point, he is 7-18-25, +9 in 16 games since Brind’Amour went down.

In goal, the Hurricanes have put their season on the back of Cam Ward. Ward has not been spectacular as much as he has been steady – 14-5-1, 2.56, .911 since the beginning of February. Only four times in 21 appearances has Ward allowed more than three goals. The word that comes to mind in looking at Ward’s performance since February 1^st is “dependable.” For a team that is averaging a little better than three goals-per-game over this stretch, that kind of performance is completely in line with Carolina’s consistent production in the last third of the season.

Thus far this year, the Caps have not been especially successful against Carolina:

Record: 2-4-0
Goals for/against: 14/19
Power play: 8/30 (26.7%)
Penalty killing: 24/31 (77.4%)

The Caps have had an especially hard time in Raleigh: 0-3-0, outscored 15-6. Twice they have lost by at least three goals, and the key there was penalties (and power play goals scored as a result). The Caps allowed a total of seven power play goals in 14 shorthanded situations in 6-3 and 5-0 losses in Raleigh. In the two wins (Both in Washington), the Caps gave up only a total of seven shorthanded situations. This is probably going to be the key once more. Carolina leads the league in total power play opportunities (379) and is the only NHL team with more than 200 power play opportunities at home (206). And the key number there seems to be, “five.” In games in which the Hurricanes are awarded more than five power plays, they are 17-7-2. In all other games, they are 24-23-3.

For the Caps, there is also key information to be mined in Ward’s statistics. He has those four games in which he’s allowed four or more goals. He lost all of them in regulation, and in three of them gave up at least two goals in the first period (twice he gave up four).

This is a game the Caps have been pointing to for weeks. There is the possibility that after so long anticipating such a match, an egg will be laid. Well, eggs go nicely with pork products, and there is that mascot for the Hurricanes. Rather than laying an egg, we're seeing "pulled pork"...


Caps 5 - Hurricanes 3

Winning and the dominating scorer

Alex Ovechkin scoring 60 goals is quite an accomplishment, not achieved since the 1995-1996 season.

Now that the first blush of that mark has worn off just a bit, it might be worth noting that in 1995-1996, when Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr both eclipsed the 60-goal mark, the Penguins earned 102 points and won the Northeast Division. However, it was Colorado playing Florida in the Stanley Cup final, the Avalanche defeating the Panthers for the title.

What has been the experience of the dominating scorer? More to the point, have Cup winners been characterized by the presence of such a scorer in their midst?

Here, we look back across the years -- from 1970-71 to the present -- to look at two things. First, did the Cup winner have a dominating scorer in terms of his edge in goals over the second leading scorer? Second, was the leader dominating in terms of his share of goals scored?


Getting to this level of team achievement would appear to require some measure of balance, at least more than has been exhibited this year by Washington. Even looking at perhaps the purest sniper in the history of the game -- Mike Bossy -- he never exceeded 20 percent of his Islanders' team goals in a Stanley Cup-winning season.

In fact, only twice has the leading scorer on a Cup-winner had at least 20 percent of his team's goals in a season (Phil Esposito in 1972 and Joe Sakic in 2001), and barely that.

And, while there have been the occasional wide gaps between the leading and second-leading scorer (five times the leader had at least 20 more goals than the second-leading scorer), the differences have not been that great on average -- 10.7 goals between first and second.

Perhaps the current situation for the Capitals reflects the as-yet incomplete development of some players. It also might reflect injury (Alexander Semin, for example, has missed 19 games this year after posting 38 goals last year).

Whatever the reason, one would think it likely that while a uniquely dominating season such as the one Alex Ovechkin is enjoying is entertaining, it is not likely to be the stuff of which a championship is going to be built, based on a history that spans the dead-puck era of the late 1990's/early 2000's and the go-go period of the late 1970's/1980's.

This is not to say that Ovechkin is suddenly going to have to morph into a 40-goal-or-so-scorer (although seasons in the 60's might not be conducive to a championship...not unless the Caps become the Canadiens of the late 1970's). The point is that the Caps are going to have to get some more offensive production from the players they should expect big things from...Alexander Semin and Eric Fehr, to name two. When that happens, then the Caps will be contenders. They already have their Ovechkin.

You can't fix stupid

Nope, it’s not our line, and it wasn’t uttered in reference to hockey by its author, but we thank comic Ron White for a line that certainly applies to one of hockey’s…”challenged” columnists.

We give you two quotes from Toronto Star columnist Damien Cox, the first from April 2006 in commentary about the Calder Trophy race…

"For their age – [Alex] Ovechkin is 20, [Sidney] Crosby doesn't turn 19 until August -- they are remarkably mature, in their professional demeanors and their on-ice play. Ovechkin was a force for his country at the 2006 Winter Olympics, scoring the winning goal in a highly emotional victory over Canada, and Crosby has been one of the few consistent factors for the Pens as a season of high hopes turned into another year lounging in the bottom levels of the NHL.

Indeed, although some -- including this writer -- would argue that Phaneuf or Lundqvist has been as good as, if not better than, the two young snipers, both of those players have found their freshman seasons eased somewhat by being part of winning teams."

Interesting…Ovechkin and Crosby – the emerging centerpieces of their era of hockey, top scorers, the players (regardless of veteran status) that every team had to game plan for when facing them in their respective rookie years – are no better than 3^rd and 4^th on one scribe’s ballot for rookie of the year (although he does damn with faint praise, calling criticism of their play "nitpicking"). And in what sense were either merely, "snipers?"

Fast forward to yesterday in a column titled, "Talented Losers Don't Make the Cut on This Ballot"…

“…it's [Nicklas] Lidstrom-[Martin] Brodeur, 1-2, or perhaps 1 and 1A on this ballot, with Pittsburgh's Evgeni Malkin third for the way in which he has lifted that club during Sidney Crosby's injury absences.

But what about the brilliant Alex Ovechkin?

Well, he's still got two weeks to get the young, talented Capitals into the playoffs, and if he can do that, this ballot will need revision.

Otherwise, picking an MVP off a non-playoff team just doesn't pass the smell test.”

It is worth noting that the only player contending for a major award that Cox refers to by name as ineligible on his ballot for a major award is Alex Ovechkin. He chooses Jonathan Toews for the Calder, and the last time we looked, Chicago's record wasn't as good as Washington's. There are but two colors on Cox's palette -- "excellence" and "losers." In case you need help, he's identified Ovechkin (and only Ovechkin) as having the latter shade.

What he has to say in justifying Martin Brodeur over Evgeni Nabokov for the Vezina or Evgeni Malkin over Ovechkin for the Hart is equally silly (having nothing to do with what the award citation actually says...we're not aware that who a general manager might wish for as a goaltender, for example, is of any relevance to the actual selection criterion for the Vezina)

However, at least Cox is consistent. The charms of consistency are often overrated, though, as this poster so poignantly illustrates…

Or, as Ron White so elegantly put it…”you can’t fix stupid.”

A TWO-point, 60 goal night...Capitals 5 - Thrashers 3

It wasn’t an end-to-end rush, it wasn’t a one-timer off a cross-ice feed, it wasn’t a wrister from the top of the circle.

It was a grinder’s goal, a garbage goal, a goal that might have saved the Caps’ season.

Alexander Ovechkin reached a milestone not achieved in 12 years on a rebound of a Mike Green shot from the point, part of a furious four-goal comeback in the last 8:30 of the game in a 5-3 win over the Atlanta Thrashers.

Once upon a time, 60 goals was a fairly commonplace thing – for 14 consecutive years from 1981-1982 to 1993-1994 the NHL leader had at least that number. But since Mario Lemieux and Jaromir Jagr topped the 60 mark with 69 and 62, respectively, in 1995-1996, no one had reached the 60 goal mark. Only Pavel Bure – in 2000-2001 – got within one of that mark.

The game has changed, most notably in goal, where bigger, more athletic goaltenders, wearing lighter equipment, and employing a style – the butterfly – that eliminates the lower half the net for the most part, offer shooters little of the net at which to shoot. Add skaters more inclined to clogging shooting lanes with sticks and shin pads, and scoring goals has become harder than differential calculus…well, almost.

But there was Ovechkin, getting an ugly goal to hit the 60-mark when the Caps most needed it. It is not an overstatement to say it saved what is left of the Caps’ season. The Caps came out flat. Frankly, they played to the level of their hosts, which is to say…well, we won’t be seeing highlights of the first 15 minutes on any instructional video.

Ovechkin opened the scoring on a move he’s used more often this year, taking a pass from Nicklas Backstrom just inside the blue line, cutting across the zone to get the goalie moving. As he approached the edge of the right wing circle, he snapped a wrist shot through the pads of Atlanta goalie Kari Lehtonen, and the Caps had a lead.

Then things, as they say, “took a turn.”

Atlanta scored three consecutive goals – a passable impression of Mike Green by Tobias Enstrom as he pinched in down the middle and converted a feed from Mark Recchi, a shorthanded breakaway converted by Jim Slater, and Slater once more, while falling down, off a feed from Eric Perrin (who sprang Slater free earlier on the breakaway).

At 3-1, one had the feeling, “it was a nice run, boys…,” especially as the clock ticked under 10 minutes to play. But with the Caps furiously crashing the net, and Kari Lehtonen turning everything aside, the puck squirted out to Tom Poti at the left point. He moved the puck across to Mike Green on the right side, and Green fired. With Ovechkin leaping to avoid the puck, Lehtonen made another save, but the rebound came out to Ovechkin ten feet out. Ovechkin wasted no time snapping the puck into the net before Lehtonen could recover, and he had his 60th. The Caps had a heartbeat.

Then Nicklas Backstrom put a stamp of his own on the game. Green started from his own and skated out with the puck. With Thrashers backing up from his advance, he dropped the puck for Backstrom inside the Thrasher line. Backstrom took a couple of steps and fired from the left-wing dot, beating Lehtonen cleanly off the crossbar to tie the game. Barely half a minute later, from a faceoff in the Thrasher end, Ovechkin ended up with the puck behind the Atlanta net. He found Backstrom at the doorstep for a tap-in, and the Caps had a lead. Boyd Gordon put the Thrashers out of their misery with an empty netter with eight seconds left for the final margin.

This could have been the ugliest one of all. It is one thing to get spanked by a club honoring a hometown hall of famer and playing with a lot of energy, as was the case in the 5-0 loss to Chicago on Wednesday. It is quite another to lose to a club playing out the string and not playing particularly well in the game in question. Atlanta wasn’t making anyone forget the 1978 Canadiens with their play in the first 40 minutes, but they had a 3-1 lead.

The Caps awakened in the third, looking more like the desperate team that should have taken the ice to open the game. They put relentless pressure on Atlanta, but Kari Lehtonen then stepped up for Atlanta. Lehtonen stopped 15 shots in the space of 11:28 to open the final frame. The Caps scored, though, on their 16th shot of the period – Ovechkin’s 60th goal – to close to within one. It was on their 21st shot of the period that they finally took the lead. All in all, the Caps would outshoot the Thrashers 23-2 in that third period. Atlanta had only 18 shots for the entire game.

The ice was certainly tilted toward Lehtonen last night. The Caps launched 65 shot attempts at the Atlanta goalie (45 making their way through). Atlanta could muster only 30 (18 getting through to Caps goalie Cristobal Huet). And it was the big guys firing…Ovechkin had 16 attempts, nine shots on goal…Viktor Kozlov had 10 and 8…Mike Green 9 and 7.

The first line of Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Kozlov was 4-4-8, +11 with 20 of the Caps’ 45 shots on goal.

Conversely, the second line of Alexander Semin, Sergei Fedorov, and Tomas Fleischmann (which was broken up for much of the third period) was 0-0-0, -5, with only four of the 45 shots. Eric Fehr, who joined that line in the third, had four shots by himself.

Ovechkin might have had another hat trick in this game…Lehtonen made an excellent blocker save on a one-timer from Ovechkin with just under two minutes to go in the first.

Backstrom took over the rookie scoring lead with his three point night (2-1-3). He now has 64 points to 63 for Chicago’s Patrick Kane. He’s also +10 to Kane’s -8.

You know…for as little time as he’s played this year, Steve Eminger has played pretty decently. He did so again last night in a little less than 13 minutes…no Thrasher goals scored on his watch, and he chipped in a couple of shots and hits, to boot.

One has to feel a certain amount of sympathy for Kari Lehtonen. He was scrambling all over the ice to keep pucks out of the net, but the Thrashers – as defensively challenged a team as there is in the NHL this season – gave him no help. He was at the mercy of Capitals shooters in the third, a one man barricade. That is not a recipe for holding a lead. How bad was it?...the Caps wouldn't get this kind of shot spread in a practice against air...

Watching Mark Recchi tonight, one couldn’t help but think, “call it a career.” He’s been a fine player – certainly one we wished wore the Capitals’ colors at some point in his career – but the time has come. The mind is willing, but the body just isn’t keeping up.

Even Bobby Holik – who owned the Caps in the circle in Philips Arena this year – couldn’t muster better than 45 percent on draws. But he did have the line of the night...

"We've been having a hard time, pretty much the whole year, putting 60-minute games together. At least that's one thing we're consistent with; we can't play a 60-minute game."

Not that Sergei Fedorov did much better. He had a pretty rough night in his 17:30 of ice time. A shot and a hit, 47 percent on 17 draws.

Tobias Enstrom – the dark-horse rookie of the year darling of a lot of “knowledgable” hockey observers – was -3 and on the ice for each of the third period goals (Boris Valabik feels his pain). He is now -13 in his last 17 games.

As much grief as Jeff Schultz gets for not playing as big as he is, he was on the ice for almost 21 minutes, had three hits, was +1, and was not on the ice for any Thrasher goals. He’s quietly put together a pretty good season: 5-11-16, +7 (he leads all Caps defensemen in that plus-minus number) in more than 18 minutes a night.

We’re down to three “home-and-homes”…Tampa Bay, Florida, and Carolina. The Caps are one point behind Boston for eighth, two behind Philadelphia for seventh, although both have games in hand. The Caps have better records than both over their last ten games.

So, even though intra-division play is the order of the day to close the NHL season, the Caps will be tempted to keep one eye on the scoreboard over these last two weeks of the regular season. But for now, the Caps can only sit and watch, as they do not play until Tuesday, in Carolina. Both the Bruins and Flyers can put a bit more distance between themselves and the Caps in the meantime, each with one game on the schedule. And Buffalo and Florida are still lurking, one and three points behind Washington, respectively, but with games in hand.

Much as it pains us to say it, it’s starting to look a bit like the end of a NASCAR race, with five cars heading into the final lap ready to draft one another. When they reach the finish line, we’re still expecting the car with the “weagle” on the hood to get the checkered flag.

The Peerless Prognsoticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, March 21st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s all about the divisions, now...at least as far as the remaining game matchups are concerned. As the calendar turns from winter to spring the Caps head into their last seven games with nothing between them and a playoff spot but 21 periods (give or take) against the familiar teams of the Southeast.

Trouble is, this division thing probably isn’t going to matter…with Carolina’s 2-1 shootout win over Florida last night, the Hurricanes opened up a seven point lead on the Caps with seven games for the Caps to play. Even with a sweep of the two games remaining with the Hurricanes, the Caps are going to need lots of help in the Southeast. And since Carolina is 14-3-1 in their last 18 games, it doesn’t seem likely that help is going to be forthcoming. So, the Caps just have to tend to their own business with an eye on Philadelphia and Boston…

“It's such a good feeling…to know you're alive…it's such a happy feeling…you're growing inside…and when you face off, ready to say…’I think I'll make a snappy new day.’"

Why, Mr. Rogers…we didn’t know you were a hockey fan. Guess you’re like the rest of us who think that the loss to Chicago on Wednesday was a killer…

“Well, I just wanted to say…

You can never go down…can never go down…can never go down the drain
You can never go down…can never go down…can never go down the drain
You're bigger than the water…you're bigger than the soap…you're bigger than Kornheiser (you know, he’s a dope)

So you see...
You can never go down…can never go down…can never go down the drain
You can never go down…can never go down…can never go down the drain
The rain may go down…but you can't go down…you're bigger than any bathroom drain
You can never go down…can never go down…you can never go down the drain.”

Guess you’re caught up in the playoff fever like the rest of us…

“It's a beautiful day in the NHL…a beautiful day for some hockey
Would you please win? Could you please win?
Won't you please... Please won't you make the playoffs?”

Any special wisdom you can share with the boys?

“You always make it a special day for me. You know how, don't you? By just your being you. Whether you're a goal scorer or a checker or just wearing a baseball cap, I like you just the way you are. I'll be rooting for you. Bye.”

Thanks, Mr. Rogers...that dose of optimism comes just in time. As for tonight’s opponent, Atlanta has done their level best to keep the Caps out of the playoffs…why, this week alone they lost to Florida (one point behind the Caps), Philadelphia (two points ahead of the Caps), and Carolina.

It’s part of a complete meltdown by the Thrashers over the last five weeks, during which they are 2-10-4. They have been, to put it plainly, awful in these last 16 games:

Record: 2-10-4
Goals for/against: 36-61
Power play: 10/60 (16.7%)
Penalty killing: 53/69 (76.8%)
Avg. shots for/against: 25.1/36.3
Times allowing >3 goals: 9
Times scoring >3 goals: 2

This is not, at the moment, a very good hockey team. While his numbers certainly aren’t stellar, it would be hard to fault number one goaltender Kari Lehtonen for the misfortune. He is 1-7-1, 3.83, .899 in ten appearances over this stretch, but he’s been in a shooting gallery, facing 37.5 shots-per-60 minutes. He has a good career record against the Caps – 8-4-2, 2.66, .917 – but this year he is 2-3-0, 2.96, .917.

With the departure of Marian Hossa and Pascal Dupuis via trade, this is the Ilya Kovachuk show as far as the skaters go. And while Kovalchuk can be an exhilarating player to watch, this isn’t really a good thing, as the Thrashers’ record suggests. Kovalchuk is 10-6-16, +4 over the last 16 games – he's had a hand in 44.4 percent of the Thrashers’ offense. By way of comparison, second leading scorer Mark Recchi is 2-9-10, -5 over the last 16 games and hasn’t scored a goal in his last 13 games. We say that with some trepidation, since Recchi hasn’t lacked for scoring against Washington in his career: 46 goals in 89 games.

Atlanta has had three seasons within a season. There was the 0-6-0 start that got Bob Hartley fired as head coach. There was the 29-21-4 “second season” that had folks thinking this might be a playoff team, and now they are in the throes of the 2-10-4 run over their last 16 games that has them in 28th place in the league-wide points standings. If you’re wondering which one is most representative of the club, based on their statistical rankings, well…you decide:

Goals/game: 2.53 (24th)
Goals-against/game: 3.26 (30th)
5-on-5 goals for/against ratio: 0.72 (30th)
Power play: 17.4% (18th)
Penalty killing: 78.7% (27th)
Winning pct. When scoring first: .548 (30th)
Winning pct. When trailing first: .311 (12th)
Winning pct. When leading after 1st period: .667 (27th)
Winning pct. When leading after 2nd period: ..762 (28th)

They are actually 8th in winning percentage when outshooting their opponents, but having accomplished that feat only 10 times in 76 games this year, it is another – if perversely so – indicator of how bad the club has been.

There are two immutable truths about games like this. First, the Caps have no business losing, even if it is on the road. Atlanta is a beaten team – on the ice and confidence-wise. They are getting almost nothing outside of some decent performances from Ilya Kovalchuk and at least determined goaltending from Kari Lehtonen (and Johan Hedberg, for that matter, who has managed to cobble together a winning record: 14-13-3, even if his other numbers are inferior to Lehtonen’s).

Second, the Caps have it well within their power (or lack of it) to lose a game like this. Showing up is not a sufficient condition to win. Kovalchuk is always dangerous, and Lehtonen is more than capable of stealing a game on his own. If the Caps play like they did in Chicago on Wednesday, this could end unpleasantly.

Part of the lesson plan for the kids is learning how to win when the season is waning and the pressure is growing. While unable to match Carolina’s 14-3-1 record over the last 18, the Caps are a respectable 9-6-3 over a like number of games. Unfortunately, such a pace (say, a 4-2-1 record) over the last seven games probably will not be good enough to earn a playoff spot. With 14 points still on the table, we’re thinking 11 more – at a minimum – will be needed. And the Caps can’t give two of those three “spare” points away to a team in a situation such as that in which Atlanta finds themselves.

The Caps are simply better, and – the “stinker” in Chicago notwithstanding – they have for the most part played that way lately. There should be no lack for focus with what is at stake, and that’s why…

Caps 5 – Thrashers 2

A no-point night: Blackhawks 5 - Caps 0

You see that smoldering pile of ashes in the corner?

Yeah, that one.

That would be the game film of this one, burned into a heap.

A screen (Jason Williams setting up to deflect a drive out of mid air), a scrum (three Blackhawks crashing the net on a power play, Jonathan Toews stuffing the puck in), and a scream (a rocket from Yanic Perreault over Olaf Kolzig’s glove), and the competitive portion of the evening was over barely nine minutes into the game.

And that was that…the rest is details. Details not really worth chewing again, except to say that there was nothing good to say about anyone in this one…

…nothing.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR -- Caps vs. Blackhawks, March 19th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s off on the next leg of the whirlwind tour of the great American Midwest, as the Caps head to Chicago to take on the Blackhawks. Chicago, that toddlin’ town…the Windy City…hog butcher to the world…

“That’s right…and don’t ferget Dikka!”



Well, this is hardly a surprise…the Super Fans ready for a night of hockey. It’s the Swerski Brothers – Bob and Bill – Todd O’Connor, and Carl Wollarski. Uh, Bob…I don’t see Bill. Has he had…

“Yeah…anudder heart attack.”

Probably from watching the Blackhawks lately.

“Da Hawks haven’t had too good a go of it da last few games…”

1-4-1 in their last half-dozen. I guess their playoff chances are about done, eh Carl?

“Sinkin’ like da last slice o’ deep-dish in da pit o’ my stomach, Peerless.”

There is cause for optimism, though…you have those precocious twins…

“Hey, I dunno about any ‘precoshuss,’ Peerless, but dat Patrick Kane and dat Jonathan Too-ees…"

I think it’s “Taves,” Todd…

"Whaddever…dose guys are havin’ a great year…I’d go so far as to call it, well, almost 'Dikka-esque.'”

“Yeah, but it takes two guys ta be almost Dikka-esque, Todd.”

“Amen, Carl…”

But about the kids…first and fourth in scoring among rookies.

“Yeah, but Taves has had a tough time lately…2-3-5, -1 in his last 11.”

“Yeah, Todd, but Kane is 3-7-10, even, in his last nine…so maybe dat’s ‘half-a-Dikka.’”

“Excellent point, Bob. And he’s five outta seven in shootouts.”

The club is sputtering, though. They’ve given up 22 goals in this 1-4-1 stretch, and haven’t given up fewer than three in any game.

“yeah, well…it’s not like we’ve got Patrick Roy in goal…”

“But we do have Patrick Lalime, Carl…”

“Yeah, and he’s playing like a limp sassage out dere, too, Bob…1-2-1, 4.33, .843. I bet Todd could have dose numbers layin’ on his back in da crease.”

“Hey…ever since my eighth heart attack, I’ve been eating turkey sassage…”

What about Corey Crawford?

“Nice kid...bad luck. He’s been in two games, only gave up five goals on 78 shots – a .936 save percentage…”

“you do that in yer head, Carl?”

“…I’ll shove dis sassage in yer head, Todd…as I was sayin’, a .936 save percentage, but he lost both games.”

What about your special teams?

“It’s been good and bad, Peerless…five outta 27 on the man advantage – 18.5 percent – but only 15 outta 20 on the penalty kill – 75 percent.”

You’ve got a former Cap on the roster – Robert Lang. How’s he been doing?

“2-3-5, +3 in his last eight games, but he had three of those points against Edmonton…”

“We lost dat game, too, Carl…”

“in overtime, in overtime…”

What about Cam Barker?…he seems to be the forgotten guy in that 2004 draft that had Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin going right ahead of him.

“Nice kid…he’s gonna be a good one. But he’s probably a year or two away.”

Anyone else we should watch out for?...

“Patrick Sharp – ya know, we got three Patrick’s on dis team. Anyway, he’s sneaky – seven shorties and seven game winners, one in overtime."

I am intrigued by one guy for the Hawks – Dustin Byfuglien – the kid's a big hitter, eh?

“Big?...Da kid hits like a shot o’ bad whiskey. 120 hits in 60 games, second on da team…”

“And don’t ferget, Todd, he has a decent scoring touch, too?”

“Right you are, Bob…17-16-33 so far. Leads all the defensemen in scoring. Tied with your Mike Green for the NHL goal scoring lead.”

I was wondering…just how do you pronounce his name?

“It’s pronounced, ‘Dustin,’ Peerless.”

So, guys…who do you like in this one?...Bob?

“Da Hawks.”

Todd?

“Da Hawks.”

Carl?

“Da Hawks.”

Well, guys, you’ve got too many pork products on the brain. The Caps matched their season-high winning streak with their fourth in a row last night. Tonight could be their first five-game streak since mastodons walked the earth. There will be no mastodons…

“…they make great sassages…”

…but there will be a Caps win.

Caps 5 – Blackhawks 3

A TWO-point night: Caps 4 - Predators 2

One down…

…one to go.

That’s a “one-at-a-time” reference. The Caps won their first game on their six-game road trip by edging the Nashville Predators 4-2, the final margin coming with only 3.5 seconds left on an empty net eight-ball-in-the-center-pocket bank shot by Alex Ovechkin.

It was quite a night. Fans got three games worth for their money. In the first, the Caps steamrolled the Predators, scoring three goals in less than 15 minutes. But there were hints of what would come to pass when the Caps took two minor penalties in the last five minutes of the period.

In the second “game,” the home fans were treated to a much more energetic Predators team, aided by another minor penalty called on the Caps early in the period. With Tom Poti off, the Predators sliced into the Caps’ lead on a goal by J-P Dumont.

In the third, the fans saw one team hanging on for dear life, the other marshalling their grit and focus to wear down the visitors until they scored a goal mid-way through the period to make things interesting – and very uncomfortable for the guests. However, the Caps were 23-1-2 when leading after two periods. History was on their side. And Ovechkin cemented number-24 when he intercepted a centering pass from Dumont in the high slot in front of Caps goalie Cristobal Huet, and then banked the puck off the boards and down the ice. The puck slid into the net an instant before Nashville’ Marek Zidlicky did the same in an unsuccessful attempt to catch up.

Ovechkin had another first star game with a goal, two assists, two hits, and three blocked shots in almost 21 minutes of ice time. He had help…

Matt Bradley continued a stretch of strong play with a goal, three hits, and two blocked shots.

Mike Green (who hasn’t had a goal in March, by the way) chipped in with an assist, two hits, and three blocked shots.

Brooks Laich might not have had a goal, but he did lead the team with four hits; Sergei Fedorov might not have had his usual winning ways in the faceoff circle (eight wins in 21 draws), but did have four takeaways.

Cristobal Huet stopped 24 of 26 shots to pick up his fourth win in six decisions since coming to the Caps from Montreal.

It was milestone night for Ovechkin…first Cap with two 100-point seasons, fastest player to 300-career points in more than a decade (237 games versus Peter Forsberg, 229 games, 1997). And it was probably no accident Ovechkin was on the ice on the last shift…the seeds of that came in a statistic you find on the right side of the NHL score sheet – three blocked shots, including one he took off his boot that had him limping around (but not enough to keep him from getting some giddyap into the Nashville zone once the puck was freed and passed onto his stick).

Nashville got the effort they needed out of their top players – Jason Arnott and J-P Dumont (their leading scorers) had the goals as well as six shots between them (Arnott had 10 attempts). But the Predators suffered the same problem that the Caps faced early in the year – they couldn’t get much out of the guys who have to provide supplemental scoring support.

It was an odd game in one respect. Neither team lacked for chances, although the Caps did go into a shell after going up by a field goal. Probably 80 percent of the shots came from between the circles and in close. This could have been a 7-5 game had Cristobal Huet and Chris Mason (in relief of starter Dan Ellis, who – had he remained in after giving up three goals on eight shots – might have allowed that seven-spot) not had excellent games.

And in the end, the Caps moved up one rung on the Eastern Conference standings ladder, climbing over Buffalo into ninth place. They kept pace with Philadelphia, which held off Atlanta, 3-2. Take it one game at a time, and one rung at a time.

We interrupt this playoff stretch drive...

We might as well start seeing that caution on just about any hockey web site you'd care to imagine. The reason?...a growing "controversy" over the Hart Trophy, what it means, and who is, is not, or should not be a favorite.

The question sparking the debate seems to focus on two things...first, a player -- Alex Ovechkin -- and second, whether a player whose team does not make the playoffs should be "eligible" (loosely defined) for the award.

Look around...Mike Brophy weighs in at The Hockey News...Jim Kelley opines from Sports Illustrated.

From Winnipeg to Montreal...from Philadelphia to Toronto (ok, Calgary)...from one national media source to another...the stage seems to be set and the cast assembling for one of the great debates (well, since the Jarome Iginla - Jose Theodore debate of ought-two) over the Hart Trophy.

There are few newspapers, magazines, web sites, or bloggers who have not at least hinted at an opnion or a preference. And we're three weeks from the playoffs.

So, for the record, we'll weigh in. Who cares if there are still nine or ten games left to play...

First, there is something that annoys me about the Hart voting. There are two "performance" awards for which any player, regardless of position, is eligible -- the Hart and the Pearson. However, both seem to be subjected to the same criteria -- the NHL's "best" player -- when neither include such a criterion in their citations.

The Hart is for the player "judged to be the most valuable to his team." The Pearson is for the "most outstanding player."

As to the former, the Hart seems to me to have become a "numbers" award. Lack them, and you're out of consideration. That suggests to me a certain laziness among the voters (even though I -- and I'm not a voter -- spend a lot of time looking at numbers). Second, I am mindful of the term "valuable" being in the citation. All other things equal, how valuable can a player be if his team does not make the playoffs? It seems to me a fair question.

The thing is, not all things are equal. There is an 82-game season with all its ups and downs, and the stretch drive that determines who does make the playoffs. Is there room in this consideration for a player, without whom his team could not or would not contend for a playoff position, even if his team comes close but does not make the playoffs? I think so...to think otherwise is to exhibit, in my opinion, the same narrow-mindedness that makes the Hart a "numbers" trophy most years.

Each team has a "most valuable" player. On some of those teams, the choice is clear, the only matter being whether that player has enough "value" to raise his team up into contention for a playoff spot or a high seeding. On other teams, the choice is less clear, either by virtue of being on a talent-loaded team where an individual's "value" might get lost in the noise (think "Detroit"), or whether that players prolific numbers are truly "valuable" (e.g., whether his team would have done as well without him).

To me, the Hart is a two man race. There are two players -- one in the East, one in the West -- who, if their teams had to play without them for any length of time, would sink rapidly in the standings...one team out of contention, the other perhaps out of the top-eight. They are the faces of their teams, the engines that drives their teams' performances. Each is as complete a player as there is in the league at any position, and they do many things more commonly associated with grinders or physical players. In fact, they seem to relish in it. Neither is a prima donna; both are among the most approachable and personable individuals in the sport (although that is not a selection criterion). Both have put their teams on their backs in the last 20 games -- one going 13-9-22, +11, while his offensively challenged team went 11-7-2, the other going 14-15-29, +6, while his all-too-young team went 11-6-3.

In my mind, this is a race between Jarome Iginla and Alexander Ovechkin.

One might argue, what about Evgeni Malkin? To that I'd say that while he has the numbers, it's not clear he's the most valuable player on his own team. Pittsburgh got uneven play from Marc-Andre Fleury when he went down with an ankle injury. But in the wake of that, Ty Conklin grabbed his responsibility by the throat, and the Penguins improved their goal-against-per-game average by about three-quarters of a goal a game. Malkin has fine numbers -- better than either Iginla or Ovechkin over his last 20 games (13-23-36, +10). But has his contribution been more important than that of Conklin? Perhaps, but if so, not as clearly.

Which brings me to the Pearson, which I think is a part of this conversation. This seems to me an odd award -- equal parts consolation prize to the loser of the Hart (even though there are different groups that vote on each award), if the competition is close (Jaromir Jagr in 2006, when Joe Thornton won the Hart), or ratification of a player's special year, if there is no clear-cut competitor to the eventual Hart winner (Sidney Crosby last year). No goalie has won it in ten years (Dominik Hasek, 1998, his second consecutive selection), and you'd have to go back to 1981 to find another (Mike Liut, the only other goalie to win it). So that means perhaps the loser of the Hart, assuming Iginla and Ovechkin are the top contenders, wins the Pearson.

What of the goalies, though. Martin Brodeur's name has popped up as a "dark horse" candidate (as if someone with his pedigree could ever be thought of that way) for the Hart. Brodeur certainly has fine numbers, and his team is having another fine year. But is his value to the Devils any more than that of an Evgeni Nabokov, who has similar numbers and plays for a team with results that so far are similar to the Devils? Ditto Roberto Luongo and J-S Giguere, whose win totals lag behind Brodeur and Nabokov, but who have nonetheless put together excellent years?

And what of the injured? By their absence -- and their team's performance in that absence -- do they merit consideration. If so, one would have to include Nicklas Lidstrom in the conversation (Detroit was 3-3-1 in his absence from February 18th to March 9th).

It is a crowded field, to be sure, and you can probably think of a couple other names to throw into the mix. But at the top are two players whose "value" to their teams -- one fighting for a higher playoff seed, the other for a playoff spot -- is just that much higher than the rest of that crowded field.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Predators, March 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

On the road again…just can’t wait to get on the road again.

OK, enough of that. The Caps are on the road in the first game of their longest absence from Verizon Center this year – six games – as they visit Sommet Center in Nashville to face the Predators. We managed to sit down with a couple of Predator season ticket holders to talk about what Caps fan might expect…Claude and Maude from Mt. Juliet. Hi folks, what has it been like following the Predators this year?

Maude: “What’s it been like?”

Yeah, has it bee like a roller coaster season, one of ups and downs? What analogy would you use?

Maude: “Analogy?...Claudie, why is he usin’ such big words?”

Claude: “Now, Maudie, they’re not big words if you break ‘em down into itty-bitty ones…take this one…first you have ‘ay-nal’…’ay-nal’…’a-nal.’ You know what that means. They you have ‘oh-gee’…’oh-gee’…sounds like something you’d say whilst you’re tryin’ to grab onto a hare-brained answer to somethin’ you don’t know…’ay-nal’…’oh-gee'…some story you’d grab outta yer butt.”

That’s about the best definition I ever heard for it…but folks, about the Predators. Being out west, in a manner of speaking, Caps fans might not know a lot about the team. What kind of year has it been?

Claude: “What kind of year has it been?...What kind of year has it been?...I’ll tell ya what kind of year it’s been, Mr. East Coast, high-fallutin’ come from a sorry, no-account, lame division like the Southeast hockey blogger, it’s been…”

Maude: “there, there, Claudie…you’ll have a spasm. You’ll have to excuse Claudie, he gets like this sometimes. You would too, if you were in the same division as the Red Wings. We were out of the division race by Thanksgiving. And we weren’t 6-14-1, either.”

But you’re still in the playoff hunt, aren’t you?

Claude: “Yeah, and if we were in the Southeast, we’d be thinkin’ about where to hang the banner for the division championship.”

You folks have been having some attendance woes that jeopardized the club’s staying in Nashville, but you’re doing better lately, isn’t that right?

Maude: “There he goes again with the big words…’jepperdized?’”

Claude: “He’s just sayin’ we weren’t drawin’ flies, and maybe the team would go to Hamilton or Winnipeg or Memphis.”

Maude: “I git it…well, we’ve actually had more than 17,000 for a game a few times…”

Claude: “Five times…”

Maude: “That’s right…five times.”

But you’re still struggling…28th in the league in attendance. You folks going to be able to keep your team?

Maude: “I sure hope so…I’d hate to have to start goin’ back to the ‘Grand Ol’ Opry’ again for a night out.”

Claude: “I just wish they’d move us into the Southeast Division.”

One last thing…do you folks all talk with an accent down here?

Claude: “No, actually, we just do it for you northern tourists. Isn’t that right, my wife?”

Maude: “indubitably…”

Well, there’s something you don’t ever expect…and speaking of that, there are probably a fair number of Caps fans who, after the Caps lost a pair of self-inflicted heartbreakers last weekend against Boston and Pittsburgh, thought the season was a wrap.

Well, as the Caps enter tonight’s play, they are two points behind Philadelphia for eighth place. But tonight the Caps face a team in a situation very much like their own. Nashville is in ninth place in the Western Conference, four points behind a trio of teams tied for sixth (Calgary, Vancouver, and Colorado). The Predators haven’t been helping themselves lately, lurching to either side of the road:

Record (last ten games): 4-6-0
Goals for/against: 27/34
Power play: 7/48 (14.6%)
Penalty killing: 46/53 (86.8%)
Record in one-goal games: 1-2-0
Games with more than three goals allowed: five

That last statistic is interesting. The Predators have been an all-or-nothing team on defense. Three times they’ve allowed six or more goals; four times they’ve allowed just one. If recent history is a guide, you’ll have a good idea where the Caps stand early. Five times the Predators have allowed at least one goal in the first period during these last ten games. In four of them, the opponent scored at least four goals for the game and won the contest.

So, that raises the question of how the goalies have performed. Dan Ellis has shouldered most of the load in the last ten games. The rookie is 4-4-0, 2.65, .919 in nine appearances.

Chris Mason is, perhaps, the more interesting case. In parts of three seasons, he played superbly in a relief role, giving the Predators the confidence to trade Tomas Vokoun to Florida at last summer’s draft for a 2nd round draft pick in 2007, a 1st round draft pick in 2008 and a conditional 2nd draft pick in either 2007 or 2008. Mason was signed to a two year deal last July. He hasn’t fulfilled expectations. 17-20-6, 2.94, .899 was not what was expected of a player who was 40-20-5 (with one tie) in parts of three seasons, with a 2.39 GAA and .922 save percentage. Here is one way to look at it. So far this season, Mason has played 2,527 minutes, 186 more than last year…about three games’ worth. But he’s given up 124 goals this year compared to 93 – 31 more goals in three extra games of time. He hasn’t had a good season. And in the last ten games, he’s made four appearances, giving up 14 goals (0-2-0, 5.02, .854).

If you’re looking at the skaters, you’d have to think first of Jason Arnott -- Nashville's leading scorer -- who has perhaps more experience against the Caps than do most Predators. He is 6-10-16, -1 in 21 games against the Caps. He’s 3-6-9 in the last ten games, but there is a -9 at the end of his line, too.

J.P. Dumont is 1-8-9, even, in 18 career games against Washington. He is 5-1-6 in over the last ten games, but he, too, has that -9 at the end of his line.

Alexander Radulov might have the most sheer talent among the forwards, but he’s had a rough time of late, at least in the goal-scoring department – 0-5-5…but at least he’s even over those ten games.

What Nashville has is a solid cadre of defensemen This seems hardly surprising, given that General Manager David Poile had similar success in Washington when he was GM for the Caps. Marek Zidlicky – a somewhat undersized blue liner (5’11”, 190) leads the defense in scoring 5-36-41. Ryan Suter, Shea Weber, Dan Hamhuis, and Greg De Vries provide more size and comprise a very solid unit. Makes one wonder, why as this team allowed 34 goals in its last 10 games, some of them blowouts?

Then there is Jordin Tootoo. If you look at the statistics, you might be lulled to sleep by the fact that Tootoo is ranked in a tie for 65th in penalty minutes (83 for the year). That’s somewhat deceptive. He achieves this while getting barely 10 minutes of ice time a night. He’s not out there to make anyone forget Wayne Gretzky…or Wayne Campbell, for that matter. He’s there to cause a ruckus and make sure that the opponents have their heads on a swivel. While his rise to the NHL is an interesting story, being the first Inuit to play in the league, he plays, to be charitable, to the edge of the rules. Fans of opponents that play the Predators frequently will no doubt have a stronger opinion. He’s had an interesting private life, too.

But hey, there’s hockey to be played and standings to climb. These are very similar teams in terms of results:

Goals/game: Caps 2.86/Preds 2.85
Goals against/game: Preds 2.80/Caps 2.86

How they get there, though, is quite different:

Power Play: Caps 19.7% (6th)/Preds 15.4% (27th)
Penalty killing: Preds 84.8% (3rd)/Caps 80.6% (25th)
Winning when scoring first: Preds .789 (5th)/Caps .649 (23rd)
Winning when trailing first: Caps .306 (10th)/Preds .171 (30th)
Winning when leading after 1st period: Preds .815 (4th)/Caps .680 (24th)

This is one of those games where the team that can impose its will early has a very large advantage. If the Caps can get off fast, Nashville is not a come-from-behind team. That’s how we see it, too…

Caps 4 – Predators 2

"I'm not sure what it is, but we'd better start picking it up here..."

In November, that quote might have come from a member of the Capitals. Yesterday, it came from the mouth of Philadelphia Flyer, Mike Richards, who said:

"It's in our hands right now. I'm not sure what it is, but we'd better start picking it up here . . . or it's going to slip out of our hands."

The Flyer locker room was full of quotes and a little bit of finger-pointing that suggested a club of uncertain confidence...

"If you don't have intensity in your game and emotion in your game, you're not going to win games this time of year. Everyone is battling for it, a chance to get in the playoffs or stay in the playoffs."

-- Flyer GM Paul Holmgren

*****

"I thought [Saturday], our effort was pretty good. To come back today . . . Pittsburgh wasn't really charged up at the start of the game, either. But they obviously steamrolled us pretty good."

-- Holmgren

*****

"This time of year, it [falls] on the coaches, and it's got to come down to the players themselves. They're the ones who are going out there and playing. We're all in this together. We haven't done very well here lately. . . . We're not getting the push we need to put us over the hump right now, for whatever reason."

-- Holmgren

*****

"He's played well against Pittsburgh all year. He's the guy we've been leaning on lately. If he's going to step up and take charge, he has to be able to play back to back, especially against a team he's had a lot of success against...Doesn't mean anything right now. We just got pounded, 7-1. Give me a couple minutes to think about it. I'll make a decision [today]."

-- Coach John Stevens, on why goaltender Martin Biron started in a 7-1 blowout and answering the question of whether Biron is still the "go-to" goalie

*****

"To me, it looked like we were a little scared to make a play. We're too hesitant to really play hard on the forecheck. When we don't do that, others teams are able to break us down pretty easy."

-- Defenseman Kimmo Timonen

*****

"It's disappointing. You hope this time of year you have the fight in you, and the last little while, we haven't had the fight we need to win games. Miraculously, we're still clinging to our spot in the playoffs. What does that mean? Tuesday's game [against Atlanta] is a big game."

-- Holmgren

With R.J. Umberger (out for up to two weeks) and Derian Hatcher (out for the year with a broken leg), it isn't getting any easier to hold onto a playoff spot. Not that there isn't some blame being tossed about for The Great Meltdown.

Did the Caps get away with one there?

You'd have to think so, based on the shot plot for yesterday's game. There were a lot more chances in high-probability scoring areas for the Bruins. Cristobal Huet did not come about his being named first star by accident...

Injuries

Much as one doesn't wish for such things, even to opponents, injuries are a fact of life at this time of year, and they could influence these last three weeks of play. Here, courtesy of sportsline.com, is the injury profile of the eight teams in the "real standings:"

And if you want a quote...

...maybe it would be best to stop by Brooks Laich's locker. It might not be original, but he had what might be the quote of the year for the Caps in giving a reason for his recent goal-scoring prowess:

"If you want money, go to the bank. If you want bread, go to the bakery. If you want goals, go to the net."

Simple, memorable.

Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images

The Real Standings...March 17th

A TWO GUINNESS Day: Caps 2 - Bruins 1 (OT/SO)

We’re long past the how…it only matters how many. And two points – no matter how ugly a manner obtained – is the object of the exercise.

The Caps picked up a hard-earned two points this afternoon against the Boston Bruins in a 2-1 shootout win.

The Bruins tried to rope-a-dope the Caps into an afternoon nap of a game, and it almost worked, the Bruins launching shot after shot at Caps goalie Cristobal Huet, and the Caps doing their part by trying—and failing, for the most part – to dent the four-wide defense the Bruins sought to employ to keep the Caps from gaining the Boston zone with any momentum.

In the end, though, it was a Russian twist on a St. Patrick’s Day weekend as Sergei Fedeorov netted the only regulation goal, and Alexander Semin and Viktor Kozlov potted goals in the shootout to earn the extra point. Who’d think that in a game where Russians were the only ones to rustle the twine, the one that would be absent from the party would be Alexander “Still on 99” Ovechkin.

Fedorov, who ended the game with more ice time than in any previous game in his short stint with the Caps (22:48) had another in a string of solid games. The goal was nice, but even without it (in which case, the Caps lose, of course), he was for the most part solid. Four shots on goal and 12 faceoff wins in 21 chances. For those of you keeping score, Fedorov has won 95 of 150 draws – 63.3 percent – since coming over from Columbus. If a club is going to play a possession game, it helps to start plays with the puck.

If there was a number that was cause for concern, it was this one – 21. That was the number of giveaways the Caps had (Boston had eight). And it was a group effort – 12 Caps (including Huet) had giveaways. Oddly enough, the player you might expect to have a couple – Alex Ovechkin (tied for third most in the league) – had none.

If you’re looking for a “grind your teeth into a fine powder” frustrating effort, you’d have to look to the Boston side of the ledger. Three times this year, Marc Savard registered six shots on goal. In each of them he registered at least a point. Today, Savard had eight shots in 21:44 of ice time and had two others blocked. His return on that investment in effort?...nada, zilch, the big zero. No goals, no assists, no points. At least Chuck Kobasew netted a goal for his six shots worth of effort.

The runner up for frustration, though, might be Ovechkin, who had six attempts blocked (yet another example of Boston’s “get in the way” defense).

If you’re not aware of what time of year it is, spend a couple of minutes looking at the time-on-ice chart. Note the shifts by period…

Eric Fehr: 6-2-2
Tomas Fleischmann: 5-2-2
Donald Brashear: 3-2-1

None saw the ice in overtime. The bench got a might shorter, one might say, as the game wore on. Not surprising, considering the stakes.

OK…now what was that UFB* in the third period?! Alex Ovechkin is skating into the Bruin zone, trying to split two defenders, and is taken down when Mark Stuart hooks his shins, and Ovechkin is called for diving? Uh, sorry, no. That qualified as among the dumber calls one will see this year, and one is at a loss to understand the rationale for it. Maybe for an instant the referee saw an “8” and thought “Alexander Semin,” who has from time to time been accused of sharpening his thespian skills in pursuit of the two-minute call.

So now it starts…six games on the road against teams with a combined record of 204-192-44. Three of the teams – Nashville, Florida, and Carolina – are either fighting to hold or fighting to gain playoff spots. The others all have records better than .500 at home. Four teams are fighting for that eighth playoff spot, two points separating them. In what is perhaps an odd scheduling quirk, only Florida and Washington play one another over the last stretch of games. None of the four play any of the other four teams between now and the end of the regular season. That will make for some intense scoreboard watching between now and April 6^th, when the Flyers play the Penguins on the season’s last day.

Fun, ain’t it?

* “utter f**king bullsh*t”

Coming to the Game?...Thinking of Driving?

Think again.

Tomorrow is the annual St. Patrick's Day Parade in D.C., and parking will be next to impossible to come by. And, there are street closings to deal with, too. From the Metropolitan Police Department:

Street Closings and Parking Restrictions for St. Patrick's Day Parade

The Metropolitan Police Department wishes to advise the public that the St. Patrick Day’s Parade is scheduled to be held on Sunday, March 16, 2008. In order to facilitate this event, no parking will be allowed on the following streets between the 5 am and 3 pm on the day of the parade.

• Constitution Avenue NW, between 6^th Street and 23^rd Street, NW
• 7^th Street NW, between Independence Avenue and Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
• 14^th Street NW, between Independence Avenue and Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
• 12^th Street NW, between the SE/SW Freeway and Pennsylvania Avenue, NW
• 17th Street NW, between E Street NW and Independence Avenue, SW

The above listed streets will also be closed beginning at approximately 11 am until the completion of the parade. In addition 7^th Street, NW, between Constitution Avenue and Independence Avenue, NW will be closed at approximately 7 am for parade assembly. Motorists should be alerted to these restrictions and expect possible traffic delays while traveling in the area of this event.

So, if Metro is an option for you, you might wish to take it, although work on the lines will add to travel times.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Bruins, March 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, it’s getaway day -- the last game before a six-game road-trip, and the Caps are hosting the Boston Bruins, the third game between these non-divisional rivals in the past 13 days. This will be the rubber game of the match, the Caps slapping the Bruins all over the Verizon Center ice for a 10-2 win, then giving a game away in the last five minutes in a 2-1 loss in Boston…

“Uh, did you know that it’s a little known fact…the Bruins were originally dressed in black and yellow for the colors of a store?”

Cliffy!...you came all the way down from Boston for the game?

“Yeah…I thought I needed a vacation, and noting says ‘relax’ like hockey.”

Never thought of it that way, but about the Bruins and those jerseys...a store?

“Yeah…the owner, Charles Adams, wanted his team to wear the colors of the grocery stores he owned.”

You’re pullin’ my leg.

“No, no, not at all…and Adams wanted a mascot that suggested strength and power.”

So they setlled on “Bruins”…

“Well, no one thought about ‘Ovechkins’ yet.”

Good one…speaking of Bruin history, what about the Kraut Line? How did that come about?

“Well, it’s a little known fact that The Kraut Line was an eatery in Boston that served Irish fare. And the day before St. Patrick’s Day – I think it was in 1941 – the power went out, and all the food spoiled. So when the patrons arrived the next day for a steaming order of corned beef and cabbage, the cabbage had gone sour, and the line of customers out the door would forever more be referred to as the, uh…’Kraut Line.’”

Uh Cliff?...I thought The Kraut Line was the Bruin line of Milt Schmidt, Bobby Bauer and Woody Dumart…that they actually got the name when they played together in Providence.

“Well, yeah…that would be the other ‘Kraut Line.’”

What about this team, Cliff…think they can hold on to a playoff spot?

“Oh, yeah…why, it’s a little known fact that when the Bruins have at least a three-point lead on the team just out of the playoffs going into the last ten games of the year, they have never lost that lead.”

You’re just making this up as you go along, aren’t you?

“What?!...Whaddya mean, ‘making it up?!...I never…uh, yeah, I’m making it up.”

Not too smart there, eh, Cliffy?

“Well, Here's a little known fact…The smartest animal is the pig. No, I'm telling you, your average oinker, yeah, yeah, yeah, scientists say; if a pig had thumbs and a language it could be trained to do simple manual labor.”

Like an NHL referee?

“Exactly!”

Hopefully, it won’t come to pigs…uh, referees deciding this in the manner that last Saturday’s game was decided. The Bruins could use the help, though. That 2-1 gift was the only game they’ve won in regulation in the last eight games (2-4-2, the other win coming yesterday in overtime against the Flyers).

Since taking it in the teeth against the Caps to start this eight-game slide, Boston is struggling mightily on offense – 11 goals, three of them yesterday (let’s hope that’s not a sign of breaking out). They’ve been shutout twice. No Bruin has more than two goals (Chuck Kobasew, Dennis Wideman, Marco Sturm), no Bruin has more than four points (Marc Savard, Sturm, Wideman).

Special teams have been special…in ways not to the liking of Bruin fans. The lack of productivity on the power play (3-for 37 – 8.1 percent) is matched only by the ineptitude of the penalty killers (22-for-34 – 64.7 percent).

It gets worse…Zdeno Chara, who might be expected to shadow (and we do mean, “shadow”) Alex Ovechkin whenever possible, did not make the trip with the team and will miss his fifth straight game.

A lot will depend on Tim Thomas in goal for the Bruins…if he gets the start. He played almost 62 minutes in the Bruins’ 3-2 overtime win yesterday, stopping 24 of 26 shots. His success against the Caps has been considerable – 8-1-1, 2.42, .922. But that one loss was a doozy, coming in the last game against the Caps…the one where he was pulled – twice – and gave up seven goals on 24 shots in 36:30 of total playing time.

If he doesn’t get the start, relief might be spelled, “Alex Auld.” Auld got the win in the 2-1 game last Saturday, stopping 23 of 24 shots. He does not, however, have overwhelming numbers against the Caps in his career – 2-2-0, 3.07, .872 – and he gave up three goals on ten shots in 23:30 in the 10-2 debacle on March 3^rd.

This game all of a sudden looks like the Atlanta game Friday night – a wounded, weakened opponent coming to town, struggling at both ends of the rink. Difference is, the Bruins are still fighting for a playoff spot, and that makes them dangerous.

A wounded bear…dangerous. Maybe Adams was onto something.

The Caps don’t lack for motivation. A win draws them to within four points of Boston fo seventh in the East, perhaps two of Philadelphia (if they lose to Pittsburgh in regulation) for eighth. They could find themselves within three points of Carolina with two games yet to play against the Hurricanes. The ramifications of a single game multiply quickly at this time of year, so it’s a “take care of business” game for the Caps before they board the flight for Nashville…

Caps 4 – Bruins 2

Ten...

We’re down to the last ten games – four at home, six on the road.

If you’re thinking “best case scenario,” it might be helpful to look at the best ten-game stretch in the Caps’ season to date. That would be the ten games starting with the 8-6 win in Ottawa on December 29^th and ending with a 6-5 shootout win in Pittsburgh on January 21^st. All told, the Caps were 8-2 in that run, with three extra-time wins included (two shootout wins and an overtime victory).

What did the Caps do right in those ten games?

Well, they sure didn’t lack for putting the puck in the net. 43 goals were scored in those ten games. Even accounting for the eight in Ottawa that started the streak, 35 in nine games is a very productive rate.

The hand in that glove was consistency…only twice in those ten games did the Caps fail to score at least four goals in a game. They scored goals in 21 of the thirty periods in regulation in those ten games.

The Caps were 12-for-46 on the power play (26.1 percent). And again…consistency. They scored power play goals in seven of the ten games.

12 players scored the 43 goals, 19 skaters had points. As one might expect, Alex Ovechkin led the goal scoring (12), but three other Capitals had at least five goals – Alexander Semin, Viktor Kozlov, and Mike Green. Similarly, Nicklas Backstrom leading the assist total with 12 is not a surprise, but five other Caps had at least five – Mike Green, Alex Ovechkin, Tomas Fleischmann, Jeff Schultz, and Boyd Gordon (keep the last three names in mind).

The Caps spread it around, but the big guns stepped up in a big way, too…

Ovechkin: 12-7-19
Green: 6-8-14
Backstrom: 3-12-15

It didn’t seem to matter if the Caps scored first or not, either. Five times they scored first (4-1), five times they didn’t (4-1).

So...what went wrong? Well, on the defensive side of the ledger, the 36 goals was problematic, although Ottawa (three times), Montreal, and Pittsburgh are top-end offensive teams, too (accounting for 20 of the 36 goals in five contests). The penalty killing was, to be charitable, challenged. 30 of 42 on the penalty kill (71.4 percent) was cringe-making.

Oddly enough, while the Caps were enjoying their most successful ten-game stretch on the scoreboard, Olaf Kolzig was enduring a stretch of less-than-Kolzig like play. He appeared in eight games in this ten-game stretch, going 6-1-0, 3.83, .852. Five times in eight appearances he gave up more than three goals, including four in 16 shots in 26 minutes of work in a 6-4 loss to Philadelphia. Brent Johnson had three appearances, going 2-1-0, 2.34, .916.

This stretch of games saw the last games played this year (so far) by Chris Clark and Michael Nylander. Clark, who has played only one game since November 28^th, played in the Philadelphia game on January 13th, registering an assist in nine minutes of play. Nylander played the first six games of this ten-game stretch before succumbing to the shoulder injury that had impaired his play for quite some time. His last game also was the Philadelphia game, in which he was 1-1-2 in 20-plus minutes.

So…is there anything one can take from the best ten-game stretch of the season as the Caps head into their last ten regular season games? Probably not, at least not in ways that are obvious.

But there are some underlying things in these numbers to watch out for…

Balance and balance…there are two kinds reflected in the numbers that the Caps would hopefully emulate in the final stretch. The first is the ability to spread things around. Getting 12 players with goals and 19 with points is impressive. So is the fact that the Caps had nine players with at least five points. Balance among the players was – and probably will be – important. There was also the balance between the heavyweights and, for lack of a better term, the support players. The Caps, within the context of team wide support, still managed to get big numbers from their big guns. They – Ovechkin, Green, Backstrom – stepped up (please note, average age: 21). They’ll probably have to step up in the last ten as well. And Viktor Kozlov – who is 3-4-7, +10 in his last seven games – might be added to that mix.

Resiliency…the Caps were 4-1 in games in which the opposition scored first. Three times they gave up the first two goals and came back to win. So, a little adversity might come their way, but they have the capacity to deal with it. That might be especially important on the six-game road trip that starts next week.

Good-enough goaltending…One definition of good goaltending is giving up one fewer goal than your team scores. That was the case in the play of Olaf Kolzig in the ten-game stretch. Now, he is back to the “Godzilla” fans are used to (6-2-2 in his last ten decisions, 2.17, .923). To this add Cristobal Huet – 2-2-0, 1.91, .925 in four games since coming over from Montreal. Brent Johnson, who has had to sit lately, is 7-8-2 this season, but a respectable 2.67, .908 to go along with it. One would have to think that the Caps will have more-than-good-enough goaltending.

That stuff over on the right side of the scoresheet…the goals, assists, points, and plus-minus are things that folks pay attention to. But there is that stuff over on the right side of the NHL score sheet – the hits, takeaways, blocked shots, faceoffs – that will loom large in close games. The Caps have a tradition of being a lunch-pail, grind-it-out kind of team. While they have more skill now than in the days that reputation was forged, they still have to get that kind of effort…guys like Quintin Laing, Boyd Gordon, David Steckel, Matt Bradley, Shaoen Morrison…they’re going to have to populate that “right side” of the score sheet.

The pleasant surprise…Brooks Laich has 10 goals in his last 12 games. If you’d bet that result in Vegas, you’ve probably quit your job by now. It wasn’t the kind of thing one would have expected. In the last ten games, the Caps could certainly use another dose of unexpected pleasure. If you’re looking for some of that late magic, it would be nice to get it from a Tomas Fleischmann, an Eric Fehr, or a Boyd Gordon.

The point of this is that the Caps have it within them for a strong finish. 16 points in ten games has been a part of this season; it can be again. But you can’t get to 16 until you get to “2”…and that starts tomorrow.