Dr. E diagrams the power play

Zis is the vay it's zooposed to verk, ja?

A NO-point night: Coyotes 2 - Caps 1

Well, the most exciting frustrating team in hockey let a lead get away for the second straight game, dropping a 2-1 decision to the Phoenix Coyotes, and all of a sudden we’re just about back to where we were at this time last year.

Then: 3-4-0
Now: 3-3-1

Then: 14 goals scored/19 goals allowed
Now: 22 goals scored/20 goals allowed (not counting Gimmicks)

Then: 4/35 power play (11.4%)
Now: 6/36 power play (16.7%)

Then: 28/37 penalty killing (75.7%)
Now: 32/41 penalty killing (78.0%)

Then: had a 7-goals against game (7-3 loss at Buffalo)
Now: had a 7-goals against game (7-4 loss at Atlanta)

From last night’s game, the “at leasts”…

At least they scored a power play goal (they had been on a 1-for-22 run – 4.5 percent)

At least Nicklas Backstrom had a point (doubling his season production to date)

At least the Caps had a good night in the circle – 64 percent overall, and every Cap taking a draw won more than he lost

At least Jose Theodore had another solid overall game (1.54 GAA, .945 SV since giving up three early goals to Pittsburgh)

But mistakes and bad habits have crept into the Caps’ game lately. Two defensive breakdowns – one a product of judgment, the other the product of awareness – led to the two Phoenix goals. Tyler Sloan made the wrong choice in trying to clear the puck from the Caps’ zone, putting it on the stick of Olli Jokinen, who found Mikkel Boedker cutting down the middle to beat Theodore. Morrison simply lost track of the only Coyote in the area – Peter Mueller – who converted a feed from Martin Hanzal for the winner.

As for the rest, the Caps started reasonably well, only to see the air leak out of the balloon as the game wore on…13 shots…11 shots…eight shots. Even the penalties – of which all four were of the “obstruction” variety (hooking, holding, interference, tripping) – hinted at the lack of focus. And, it’s not as if the Caps put the same sort of pressure on Mikael Tellqvist that the Coyotes put on Theodore. The shot chart suggests the Caps were bombing away from the outside, while Phoenix was getting more chances “in the paint.

One concern might be that the “young guns” are packing cap pistols on this road trip (no pun intended). Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Mike Green, and Nicklas Backstrom…17 shots, no goals, two assists, -1, last night (25 shots, no goals, three assists, even in the last two games).

The differences between last year and this are that, first, the club doesn’t need to have a change in philosophy to unleash their talent, and second, there isn’t the uncertainty surrounding the question of whether or not they’re good. But no team can just show up and get a win. Like we said, the Caps aren’t sneaking up on anyone this year, and the effort has to match the expectation. The hardest test of the road trip is perhaps to come – Dallas can be a suffocating team. The Caps certainly have the talent and depth to deal with that. But if they visit the Stars and skate a game like this, the question won’t be whether they win, but whether they score.

Unpalatable political pomp

Seems one puck drop wasn't enough. As Greg Wyshynski reports, Sarah Palin, the Republican candidate for vice president, will be in St. Louis on Friday to drop the ceremonial puck as the Blues face off against the Los Angeles Kings.

Swing state (Missouri being one), what she'll wear, the idea of hockey fans being used as props for a political moment. Frankly, it's old. We want to see something new.

What we'd like to see is for Governor Palin to schedule a puck drop event for Sunday, November 2nd, in Peoria, Illinois. Why? When Illinois is solidly in the ranks of her opponent? Well, the AHL's Peoria Rivermen will be hosting the Manitoba Moose. She can drop the puck, smile and wave, then shoot all the moose.

Now that's hockey!

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Coyotes, October 23rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s “hump game” of the three game road trip, as the Capitals visit the Phoenix Coyotes, who seem to be in something of a state of denial with respect to their guests. If one were to go to the Coyotes’ web site this morning, one would find this blurb in their pregame preview…

“In two games against Phoenix, [Alex Ovechkin] has registered two goals and two assists.”

Well, no, not exactly, he’s registered one goal and THE goal.

“You’re not going to post a video of that, are you?”

Well, this is a surprise…Mikael Tellqvist, the Coyotes’ backup goalie…aren’t you starting tonight?

“Uh…yeah.”

You don’t sound especially excited about it.

“Would you? I mean, here’s Ovechkin, in a slump, and he’s coming here, where he had –gulp-- that goal.”

You mean, THE goal, right?

“Look, I know about goals…there was that dipsy-do thing through eight defenders that Rick Nash scored against us..”

You mean, against you…

“Yeah, OK, against me…and there was that falling down backwards on the seat of his pants backhand thing Sidney Crosby scored against us…”

...ahem

“yeah, yeah…against me…

You do know about highlight reel goals, don’t you?

“Nice way to get into your first game of the year, isn’t it?...Donald Brashear will probably to a somersault and head one into the goal tonight…”

Well, one can hope...


Tellqvist catches the Caps coming off their worst offensive production of the season in their 2-1 loss to Calgary on Tuesday. For the record, he will bring a 1-1-0, 3.53, .892 lifetime record against the Caps into tonight’s game.

He and the rest of the Coyotes are coming home after a four game road trip, the last three of which they lost. They also gave up 14 goals in the process…if the Caps are going to spring back on the offensive end of the ledger, this might be the team against which to do it.

Phoenix doesn’t bring a lot to this game (with an exception), based on their five game results:

Record: 2-3-0, 4 points (T-13th in the West)
Goals for: 2.40 (25th in the league)
Goals against: 3.40 (23rd)
5-on-5 ratio: 0.54 (29th)
Power play: 19.0% (12th)
Penalty killing: 85.0% (10th)

As you see, the Coyotes' special teams are not bad, both ranking in the top half of the league in efficiency. Their 5-on-5 results to date, though, are something the Caps should be able to exploit (the Caps are third in the league in 5-on-5 goals ratio).

Phoenix has had problems with bad starts. Their total of three first period goals ranks tied for last in the league. But, they’ve also had something of an odd pattern to their offense. They’ve scored only one goal in each of games 3 and 5. They scored four goals in their second game and three in their fourth. This will be game six on their schedule…the Coyotes and their fans might be forgiven if they can keep the pattern going against a Caps team that has allowed the seventh highest total of goals so far this season.

Individually, things start with an old friend – Olli Jokinen. The former Panther is 14-15-29, -13 in 49 career games against the Caps, and he leads the Coyotes in scoring at the moment (1-5-6, even).

To Jokinen, one must add Shane Doan in the list of players to watch. The Phoenix captain is not a player the Caps see much of, but in 16 career games is 3-6-9, +1, with two game winners to his credit.

The Coyotes have gone young with some promising early results. Two rookies have made a mark thus far – Kyle Turris (picked third overall in the 2007 draft) is 1-3-4 in five games, while Mikkel Boedker (picked eighth overall last June) has a pair of goals in five games. Two other rookies have appeared in all five games – Kevin Porter (no, not the former Bullets basketball player) and Viktor Tikhonov, grandson of the legendary coach of the Soviet Union hockey team. All in all, Phoenix carries 11 players on its roster 23 years of age and younger. It is also a team with size. Only Boedker is shorter than six feet, and 14 skaters tip the scales at over 200 pounds (five over 220).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Phoenix: Daniel Carcillo

Carcillo returns from a two-game suspension, the product of engaging in fisticuffs with Chicago’s Ben Eager – Carcillo was on the players’ bench while Eager was on the ice. Carcillo – the league’s penalty leader by almost 100 minutes last year and a top-ten finisher in fighting majors – might be watched to see if he is on his worst behavior. The Coyotes lost both games in his absence – to Ottawa and Montreal – by a combined score of 10-4. He has never played against Washington.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

This will be Ovechkin’s first visit to Phoenix since scoring “The Goal.” He also comes into this game on a four-game goal scoring drought. Here is your fun Alex stat for today…in each of his first three seasons, he finished his first seven games of the season with four goals. He currently has two…do the math.

The other thing to note about this game is that Jose Theodore has never lost to the Coyotes in regulation time. He is 5-0-3, 2.67, .905 in nine career appearances against Phoenix. Ovechkin getting off the schneid…Theodore continuing his solid recent play…sounds like a plan.

Caps 5 – Coyotes 2

A NO-point night: Flames 2 - Caps 1

It wasn’t the best way to start a road trip, and there are some concerns, but it wasn’t as bad as all that, either. The Calgary Flames finally got their season started with a 2-1 in over the Caps last night that saw a reversal of fortune for the Caps in three respects.

First, there was the come-from behind nature of the win for the Flames (their first over Washington since 1999). Whereas that had been a specialty of the Caps so far this year (the Caps came from at least two goals behind in two of their three wins), the Flames spotted the Caps an early goal by Sergei Fedorov before taking the lead, which brings us to the second item…

The second period. Coming into the game, the Caps had outscored the opposition in the second period, 9-2. However, the Flames turned the tables by outscoring the Caps, 2-0, in the second period last night, then holding on for the win.

The third point is reflected in Calgary’s better effort and result than they had realized in giving up an average of 4.4 goals a game in their first five contests. The Caps aren’t going to sneak up on anyone this year. Last year, Ovechkin was a known, but guys like Alexander Semin and Mike Green were curiosities. No more; Green and Semin (who had 16 points between them in six games) were held off the scoresheet entirely and managed a combined total of only three shots on goal in more than 50 minutes of combined ice time.

There really isn’t a scapegoat in this game (except the Caps' power play, more on that in a bit); it was merely a case of Calgary playing a very good game, and Miikka Kiprusoff finally playing like a guy who has averaged more than 40 wins a year the last three seasons (he was named first star of the night by the NHL).

We are getting to the point, though, where there might be concerns about Nicklas Backstrom. He finished so strong last year (5-14-19, +16 in his last 18 games) that it was reasonable to expect that he’d be a productive player out of the gate in his second season. He hasn’t been. Despite getting more than 19 minutes a night on the top line (he was moved to the second line last night), he has a total of one point (an assist) in six games, and his faceoff percentage (39.7 percent) is better than only six other players having taken at least 50 draws this year. It’s early, but the term that comes to mind is, “sophomore slump.”

One supposes that you could be critical of the goals the Caps allowed. On the first, Jose Theodore didn’t get a handle on the slap shot by Jarome Iginla, but let’s also remember that Iginla is an accomplished goal scorer, and we’ve seen Alex Ovechkin rifle pucks like that through goaltenders often. On the second, the Caps might have backed off a bit too much to allow the Flames to enter the zone with speed and numbers, Matthew Lombardi getting what amounted to a free look and shot at Theodore. All he had to do was pick a side.

But two goals allowed against any team is, on most nights, going to be good enough to get a win, and Theodore played plenty well enough in this one to give the Caps a chance. Kiprusoff was just better.

As for the other skaters, there is another bit of a problem. Two guys that the Caps have depended on to win draws and start the game of puck possession are struggling. David Steckel (one-for-six last night and 42.8 percent so far this year) and Boyd Gordon (four-of-nine last night and 50.0 percent) aren’t putting up the numbers yet that they did last year (56.3 and 55.8 percent, respectively).

Alex Ovechkin got off the schneid, points-wise, but his four games without a goal streak is his longest since last February. Guys don’t use wood sticks any more, for the most part, so the old idea that you can see sawdust dropping from the stick where it’s being held too tight doesn’t apply. We don’t know what the analogous substance might be for composite sticks, but we might be getting an idea watching Ovechkin these days. We have a feeling though, that before this road trip is done, this problem will be in his rear view mirror.

Tyler Sloan almost got a “call-up hat trick” of sorts – a big hit, a fight, and a blocked shot. Trouble was, after the big hit on Daymond Langkow, he was jumped by Rene Bourque, who was sent off for instigating, unsportsmanlike conduct, fighting, and ten-minute misconduct. People who sit that long generally have to buy a ticket for the privilege. Sloan wasn’t penalized.

What followed, though, was the single inexcusable part of the Caps performance. Despite having the rarest of creatures – the possibility of a full nine minute power play – the Caps mustered but three shots, none of which tested Kiprusoff to any large degree. There was the game, right there. With a chance to stand on the Flames’ throat, and after a highlight reel hit to earn that power play at that, the Caps let the Flames up and never really dominated play thereafter. As for that power play, the Caps are now one for their last 21 in power plays (4.8 percent), dating back to the Vancouver game.

This was an opportunity lost by the Caps – the Flames had not played well coming into this game. But perhaps the lesson learned here is that they won’t be going into many buildings this year having the home club giving less than their “A” effort. That should be kept in mind when heading to Phoenix on Thursday.

A "smack my head, I got it" moment

The Tampa Bay Lightning have gone and done it again. They have claimed former Capital Matt Pettinger on re-entry waivers from the Vancouver Canucks.* Given the collection of forwards the Lightning already have obtained, one might ask with respect to the Pettinger claim ..."why?"

It took us a while, but we think we've figured it out. Follow along...

First, let's leave aside that idea that the Lightning picked up Pettinger because Len Barrie, one of the co-owners, is a friend and business partner, as reported by the Vancouver Sun. That's crap. There is a bigger theme here.

In David Koci, Ryan Malone, Mark Recchi, Gary Roberts, and Adam Hall, the Lightning have assembled themselves quite a group of former Penguins.

On the other hand, with Jeff Halpern, Jamie Heward, and Olaf Kolzig, the Capitals Alumni association is also well-represented. But, the Lightning needed another former Cap to even up the score (especially since Heward has been sent to AHL Norfolk).

Why? We think it is part of Oren Koules' (also a Lightning co-owner) nefarious plot to make up for the abysmal play of the Lightning on the ice and turn the St. Pete Forum into the set of some weird shoot for a horror movie, a Capitals versus Penguins death match, the perfect remedy for a guy who made his mark with the "Saw" movie series.

Malone!...Halpern!...Recchi!...Kolzig!...Roberts!...

...Pettinger!!!

AYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!


edit...St. Louis picked up Koci on waivers from Tampa Bay, but the Ducks have put Ken Klee on waivers...the plot thickens.


* Thanks to leftwing and CStoneNo37 on The Official for the heads up

Underrated?

From the "what, are you kidding me?" file, Greg Wyshynski asks the question this morning, is it possible for Sidney Crosby to be underrated at anything? Specifically, the issue is goal scoring and whether the youngster is somehow underrated in that aspect of the game, given this compendium of highlight quality goals assembled by TSN Canada.

Well, here's the deal...if the standard is, say, Marco Sturm or Niklas Hagman -- both of whom finished last year with 27 goals to finish in the 50ish ranking in the league, then yes, Crosby isn't getting the credit he deserves for averaging 37 goals per 82 games so far in his career (some of them of, yes, the highlight variety).

But that's not the standard here. This is a young man who scored 120 goals in 121 regular season games in Canadian junior. He has been heralded as the next coming of Wayne Gretzky perhaps since his age was still in single digits. He's done this before. His talent, including his ability to score goals, has set a high bar.

But that's the point...how he is "rated" - under or otherwise - is a product of what is expected of him, and what is expected is "a lot." That might be both compliment and curse, but it's not as if we're comparing him to Sturm or Hagman. Crosby is rated highly in all aspects of his game, and rightly so. Frankly, I'd expect a highlight goal a month, not a compilation of ten that included shootouts (sorry, Gimmicks not allowed, they are not "goals" anymore than home runs in home run derbies are "home runs").

The question is, in my opinion, almost insulting to Crosby. He is lauded enough, with good reason we might add, without needing the manufacture of his being "underrated" with respect to one part of his game.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Flames, October 21st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Caps are on the road this week, tonight visiting the Pengrowth Saddledome (which sounds like a condition one might look up on WebMD) to take on the Calgary Flames, and speaking of Flames, you’ll never guess who we found way up here on the Canadian prairie…

“Wilkommen…bienvenue…welcome…c’mon in.”

That’s right, the Teutonic Titwillow, herself…Lili von Schtupp. It’s a long way from Rock Ridge, Ms. Von Schtupp…

“Call me, Wiwwy…”

Yes, Wiww…Lily…it’s a long way from Rock Ridge, how did you end up in Calgary?

“Zey ran out of schnitzengruben in Wock Widge…”

Well, tonight the Flames take on Alex Ovechkin and the Caps. Being a fan of the game, how would you preview the Caps and Ovechkin for Flames fans?

“I vood say…’Vhy don't you admit it? He's too much of man for you. I know. You're going to need an army to beat him! You're finished. Fertig! Verfallen! Verlumpt! Verblunget! Verkackt!’”

I don’t know that I’d go that far; the Flames are a rugged bunch. But Ovechkin might be due, since he has only two goals in five games…

“Is it true how zey say zat Ovechkin is... gifted?“

Well, he did have 65 goals last year…

“It's twue. It's twue. It's twue, it's twue!”

What about Sheriff Bart?...what ever became of him?

“Why don’t you ask him yourself…”

Bart. It’s a pleasure to meet you…

“Now, I suppose you're wondering just what in the heck you're doing out here in the middle of a prairie in the middle of nowhere in the middle of the night.”

You bet your ass.

“I'm hip.”

Well, relocated movie characters from 1974 might not be “hip,” but the most exciting team in the NHL will be our focus of attention this evening, and no, we do not mean the Calgary Flames. The Flames are a struggling outfit at the moment, as their numbers suggest:

Record: 1-3-1
Goals for: 2.80 (T-18th)
Goals against: 4.40 (T-29th)
5-on-5 goals ratio: 0.57 (27th)
Power play: 20.0% (T-11th)
Penalty killing: 80.0% (T-19th)

The 5-on-5 play and goals allowed are especially worrisome. Only Chicago and Dallas have allowed more goals at 5-on-5 (15 each) than has Calgary (14), and both of those teams have played more games. Conversely, only Vancouver and the Rangers have scored more 5-on-5 goals (15 each) than the Caps (14), and both of those teams have played more games than has Washington.

Miikka Kiprusoff has gotten the call in all five games the Flames have played thus far, and he might not be the cause of the problem, but his numbers don’t suggest that he’s been helping matters, either. His 4.37 GAA ranks 32nd in the league, ahead of only Frederic Norrena of Columbus and Martin Biron of Philadelphia. His .851 save percentage ranks 30th. It is not as if Kiprusoff has faced an inordinate number of shots – the 29.6 shots per game Calgary has allowed ranks as the 12th lowest total (tied with Boston) in the league.

What’s more, Calgary seems to have played a somewhat uncharacteristically (for a Mike Keenan coached club) passive game. The 91 hits with which they have been credited ranks them 24th of 30 teams, although they have been somewhat more rambunctious at home (71 hits for 10th in the league).

Individually, the Flames reflect their team numbers. Of the 21 skaters to take the ice so far this year…

- Only two – Daymond Langkow and Andre Roy – are on the plus side of the ledger at plus-1.

- Jarome Iginla has been to the skaters what Kiprusoff has been in goal, and that’s not a good thing. Iginla is off to a slow start: 1-2-3, -5, and 14 penalty minutes.

- Only Todd Bertuzzi has more than one goal for the Flames (he has five).

- Dion Phaneuf – the big banger in this bunch – has been credited with ten hits. By way of comparison, David Steckel has nine in almost 16 fewer minutes of average ice time per game.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Calgary: Craig Conroy

Conroy has not had a lot of success against the Caps, personally, in his career. In 13 games, he is 1-4-5, even. He’s off to a somewhat slow start (as are a lot of Flames), notching only a goal (no assists) in five games with a minus-4 to go along with it. It goes without saying that Iginla is the go-to guy, but Calgary needs to get some other players into the mix, and Conroy is one of them.

Washington: Jose Theodore

Calgary has shown little ability in the early going to mount much of an attack, especially 5-on-5. Against such a team, it is important not to get behind early, and not to allow the cheap goal. Washington has allowed nine first period goals, third-worst in the league and more goals than they’ve allowed in the second and third periods combined. Making Calgary work for their reward will be important, and Theodore is the guy who has to ensure that they don’t get any softies. His career numbers against the Flames – 9-7-2, 2.14, .922 – suggest he’s capable of being that guy.

This will be a homecoming for three Caps defensemen – Mike Green, Jeff Schultz, and Tyler Sloan, and a satisfying homecoming it will be…

Caps 4 – Flames 2

Who said 'The Sopranos" was off the air?

Yo, Vinnie, lookadis column by dis chiacchierone... talkin' 'bout "rearrangin' a guy's face." Like dis Godard guy is gonna come heavy and bust up dis Ovechkin guy, just cuz he mussed up dis Malkin's hair a little. Whatta jamook.

Hey yo, Vinnie, dis Madden guy...maybe he watches too many 'Sopranos' reruns on dat Ayyy an' Eeeee channel, you know what I'm talkin' about? Seen too many Godfaddah movies. Hey, maybe he can be in da Godfaddah remake...he can play Clemenza....he sure has da look down. Besides, I seen dis Ovechkin...Madonn', he got da stugots. He's whackin' guys all over de ice. An' he already looks like he's had dat face rearranged...you see dat nose? Looks like an off ramp on da Jersey Turnpike.

Ya know, Vinnie...if dis Madden guy has any ideas about whackin' somebody, he oughtta be lookin' at dat Bettman guy. I hadda beef widdat Bettman guy every since he had dis idea about shootouts. Don' he know dats somethin' best left to da garbage business?

All in all...

...a damned fine week.

The Caps faced three goaltenders -- Roberto Luongo, Marc-Andre Fleury, and Martin Brodeur -- who were a combined 98-66-17, 2.28, .919, with 14 shutouts last year. The three were a combined 6-0-0 against the Caps last year, 1.99, .936.

And the Caps were 2-0-1 against the three this past week, scoring 12 goals in the process. The Caps scored a total of 12 against the trio in six games last year.

Don't look now, but...

Two players...

Player 1: Two games, 0-2-2, +1...his team is 3-1-1

Player 2: Five games, 0-1-1, -5...his team dropped to 1-5-0 today

Player 1...




Eric Fehr






Player 2...




Ryan Getzlaf

Sittin' at the end of the bar...

How do we know it's still early in the season?

-- Edmonton is undefeated...Philadelphia is winless.

-- Calgary has allowed 22 goals in five games.

-- Detroit is not leading the Central Division (let alone the Western Conference)

-- Someone named Aaron Voros is one point behind the league leaders in scoring

-- And while we're at it...Alexander Semin is leading the league in scoring

-- A Koivu leads the NHL in assists...it's not Saku

-- Saku's the one leading the NHL in plus-minus

-- In fact, four Canadiens top the plus-minus list...Koivu (that would be Saku), Andrei Markov, Mike Komisarek, and Alex Tanguay.

-- Derek Dorsett leads the NHL in penalty minutes. Now...don't look it up -- who does he play for?

-- Tomas Holmstrom has five goals...on ten shots.

-- Jay Bouwmeester is averaging more than 30 minutes of ice time a game...guess the Panthers want to get a full season's worth of ice time out of him before they trade him.

-- The Blues are tied for the top spot in goals scored per game (4.0). They are also buzzing along at a 40.9 percent clip on the power play.

-- The Kings haven't yet allowed a power play goal

-- The Rangers lead the NHL in fights (8)

-- The Rangers lead the NHL in hits

-- San Jose leads the league in second period scoring...a good thing, too. They're last in the NHL in first period scoring with no goals. They're also 5-1...go figure.

-- All those flashy signings, and Tampa Bay has scored fewer goals than any team in the league (8)

-- Backups are ranked second and third in the NHL in GAA (Patrick Lalime and Stephen Valiquette)

-- Speaking of GAA...5.74. That's the worst in the league, and it belongs to Martin Biron

-- In the what-a-difference-a-year-makes file...Pascal Leclaire had nine shutouts last year. So far this year, his save percentage is .866.

-- Alex Ovechkin has more than twice as many penalty minutes (eight) as points (three).

-- Matt Bradley is tied for the team lead in penalty minutes...he doesn't have a minor yet.

-- Only one Capital has a combined minus record in home games played so far (Eric Fehr, -1)

-- Sergei Samsonov...no points, -4

-- Michael Nylander...after five games last year, -3 (on his way to -19)...after five games this year, +3

"They work hard, they love to play together and they're fun to watch."

It could pass for the franchise’s philosophy, both in Washington and Hershey. As it is, it was the description Hershey Bears’ head coach Bob Woods had of his club (as noted by Tim Leone of the Patriot-News) after last night’s 7-1 thumping of the Syracuse Crunch, that being the club visiting Giant Center on the wave of an 18-game regular season winning streak, in the Bears’ home opener.

As Hershey’s play-by-play announcer, John Walton, points out this morning, “until you see the numbers in black and white, you may not have the full perspective [of how dominating the Bears have been]." Through five games:

Points:

1. Keith Aucoin (11)
T-2. Alexandre Giroux (9)
T-2. Graham Mink (9)
T-6. Andrew Gordon (7)

Goals:

T-1. Alexandre Giroux (5)
T-1. Graham Mink (5)
T-3. Andrew Gordon (4)

Assists:

1. Keith Aucoin (8)

Power Play Goals:

T-1. Graham Mink (3)

Plus-Minus:

1. Keith Aucoin (+7)
T-2. Sami Lepisto (+6)
T-2. Tyler Sloan (+6)
T-4. Karl Alzner (+4)
T-4. Alexandre Giroux (+5)
T-4. Bryan Helmer (+5)

That would be the top six spots occupied by Bears. You might not find that many bears together in Yellowstone National Park.

Mathieu Perreault (T-1st) and Oskar Osala (T-9th) are in the top-ten in rookie scoring.

It's also worth noting that before his call-up to Washington, Chris Bourque was 2-3-5, +1, in only three games.

Hershey has 29 goals scored in five games, 12 more than any other team in the AHL, and more than double the total of any team in the East Division in which the Bears play. The Bears have nearly as many goals scored as the combined total of the next three teams in the standings in the East Division – Binghamton, Bridgeport, and Wilkes-Barre/Scranton (34).

There are 75 games to go, but one has to like the look of the Bears, who have a way about them at the moment a grizzly might envy.

A ONE-Point Night: Devils 4 - Caps 3 (OT/SO)

This morning’s word…

Discombobulated

Meaning…“confused or disconcerted; upset; frustrated”

That was the Caps in a nutshell last night as they earned (well, “earned” really doesn’t capture it…”slunk away with”) a point they had no business getting in a 4-3 Gimmick loss to the New Jersey Devils at Verizon Center.

There isn’t a stat that jumps out so much as a visual…the shot chart:

The Caps might have had 27 shots, but it was often a case of “bombs away” from the outside. Martin Brodeur is too good a goalie to allow much from that distance. The Caps had some success from between the hash marks, but there wasn’t enough of that. That the Caps scored three goals is somewhat amazing in light of that visual.

The statistics of the game reflect the even nature of the scoreboard. The Devils enjoyed a wide lead in shots (37-27), but the teams were more or less even in blocked shots (Devils, 15-13), hits (Devils, 18-14), takeaways (Devils, 9-8), giveaways (Devils, 14-15), faceoff wins (Caps, 35-30). But what one gathered in watching the game was that the Caps just weren’t into the little things, like winning battles along the boards. If the puck was somewhere near the edge, and two or more players were fighting for it, one could be pretty confident that a Devil was going to come away with it.

One of the numbers that does leap out is the shots late. The Capitals – a team that showed an ability to finish well (they are tied for third in third period goals this morning) – allowed the Devils 14 shots in the third period and overtime, while posting only seven of their own. The Caps allowed the Devils to dictate the tempo in the last half of the game.

What we took away…

What the Devils lack for in offense (and three goals doesn’t really reflect just how boring it is to watch), they made up for in balance. Eight skaters had three or more shots on goal, none had more than four. Only two skaters – Colin White and Bobby Holik – failed to register a shot. And Holik played less than seven minutes, breaking his pinkie finger on an Alex Ovechkin clearing attempt in the second period.

John Erskine might have been “even” for the night, but it seemed that every shift he had out there was an adventure of some kind. Another delay-of-game penalty…having to dive to poke away a puck after it trickled off his stick…being the guy who didn’t tie up Petr Vrana enough to keep him from deflecteing Patrik Elias’ point shot for the Devils’ first goal.

This was the first time in five games (career) against the Devils that Nicklas Backstrom failed to register a point. Backstrom is shooting the puck more (he had seven attempts last night), but he looks just a bit off in, well, most everything.

That pass from Sergei Fedorov to spring Alexander Semin for a breakaway goal was a thing of beauty. No other Caps defenseman makes that pass. It might not be accidental that he and Milan Jurcina – a pairing for much of this game – were the two Caps defensemen who were not on the ice for a Devils score (although Jurcina was not on the ice for the last 7:28 minutes of regulation and all of overtime).

Holik is a not the player of years past, but one thing he still does well is take faceoffs – he won seven of eight.

Speaking of time, the Devils had four skaters who logged less than ten minutes – Holik, Mike Rupp, Petr Vrana, and David Clarkson.

The Caps had the guys they wanted shooting the puck. Ovechkin had six shots, Semin three, and Mike Green three. Part of the trouble was that Tomas Fleischmann, Eric Fehr, Chris Clark, and Brooks Laich were credited with one apiece.

Since Viktor Kozlov left the lineup mid-way through the 5-1 win against Vancouver, Backstrom and Ovechkin have a combined 26 shots, no goals, and one assist.

We had one right in the players to ponder…Jamie Langenbrunner had assists on both of the Devils’ third period goals.

One power play goal in eight tries (and the one coming on a 5-on-3). The Caps look as if they had the part of their brain holding the “what we do on the power play” wiped clean. The Caps had eight shots on eight power plays; the Devils also had eight shots…on four power plays. The Caps spent most of the 5-on-4 time playing the role of the dog in the time-honored game of “fetch.”

Alexander Semin had two more goals – he is now second (to Thomas Vanek) in goals and the league leader in points. He also had no shots on the power play.

The Devils’ TV analyst remarked in the third period that if he was a Devil, he wouldn’t give up the puck in the Caps’ zone until he wanted to, because the Caps weren’t pressuring the puck at all. That was one of the confounding truths all night…the Caps looked very passive in defending the Devils, who are not nearly as explosive a team as the one the Caps played on Thursday in Pittsburgh. They seemed to give the Devils too much room and too much respect.

There really is a glass-half-full, glass-half empty aspect to this game. If you’re a “glass-half-empty” kind of person, you’re probably thinking that last night’s effort and intensity just weren’t there. And, in fact, they weren’t, at least not so that we could see. The Devils play a system and make life very annoying for teams that want to run and gun, but the Caps looked pretty passive out there, too.

If you’re a “glass-half-full” kind of person, you’re thinking that the Caps got a point out of a game they had no business getting one from, and they did (if on a fluky goal) come from behind late. They carry a four-game points-earned streak into a western road trip. And, they did it despite missing some important cogs in Kozlov, Tom Poti, and Donald Brashear.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Devils, October 18th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We are live from Peerless Central, where preparations are underway for the Caps first contest against the New Jersey Devils in the 2008-2009 season. The Devils are in their fourth and last game of a road trip that has taken them away from their new palace in Newark. They are 2-1 so far on this trip, but while they’ve been away, some interesting documents of archeological importance were discovered in the materials excavated from the site that are now in a New Jersey landfill (along with Jimmy Hoffa, Judge Crater, and John McCain’s chances of winning the election). The Peerless has received exclusive access to a particularly important – and revealing – piece of the find…the original Devil’s agreement:

I, Mephistopheles (a.k.a., The Devil, Beelzebub, Satan (not Miroslav), Gary Bettman), the party of the first part, do agree to provide the party of the second part with riches, fame, health, records never to be broken, culinary talent, a gift for story telling, and a little fun on the side.

In exchange, the party of the second part promises to relinquish, at a time of my choosing…

His soul.

Signed,

Party of the first part: Mephistopheles

Party of the second part: Martin Brodeur

OK, maybe it only seems that way, but Brodeur is on the verge of setting new records for career wins (at 541, he is ten short of Patrick Roy’s record of 551) and shutouts (his 98 is five short of Terry Sawchuk’s record of 103). As far as health goes, the last time Brodeur played fewer than 3,800 minutes in a season, it took a shortened season to do it (1994-1995). He has ten consecutive seasons, and counting, of having played at least 4,000 minutes and seems to be on a pace to eclipse that mark again. He has 12 consecutive seasons of at least 30 wins (an NHL record) and has seven seasons of at least 40 wins (another NHL record), including an NHL record 48 wins in 2006-2007. He holds records in combined career shutouts (playoff and regular season), overtime wins, minutes played in a season, most shutouts in one Stanley Cup playoff, most shutouts in a Stanley Cup final, and is the only NHL goalie to have been credited with scoring a game-winning goal.

It’s a safe bet he’s going to the Hall of Fame.

And he’s wreaked a special havoc on the Capitals: 32-12-4, 2.11, .913, six shutouts

To beat the Devils, one has to beat Brodeur.

Frankly, Brodeur and the fabled Devils’ “system” it’s about all the Devils have going for them at the moment. As a group, they have scored a total of six goals in four games, no more than two in any single contest. And for all of that, the Devils are still 3-1-0. Why? They’ve given up only six goals, a total of two in their three wins. They have allowed only two even strength goals so far this season (they are, as you might expect, the best five-on-five team in the league at this early juncture).

Only eleven skaters for the Devils have registered at least one point through four games, and only two – Zach Parise and Patrik Elias – have more than one goal. If you do the math, that means that 15 Devil skaters have failed to score a goal, eight have failed to register a point. Among the latter, there is Bobby Holik, who was brought back to...well, we’re not exactly sure what, considering he’s being paid $2.5 million this year to be a ten-minute a night (ok, 10:25 a night) center.

Our old friend, Dainius Zubrus is once more displaying his sense of splendid mediocrity, notching an assist in four games, plus-1, and five shots (total, not per game) in 13:36 of work per game.

Another former Cap of sorts – Johnny Oduya – who had a fine year last year (6-20-27, +27 in 75 games), hasn’t exactly sprung from the gate through four games (0-0-0, even).

One source of concern for the Devils might be Brian Gionta. After putting up 48 goals in the 2005-2006 season, he slumped to 25 the following year and 22 last year. He is without a goal (with two assists) in four games to date.

One of the things (one of the many things) the Devils aren’t getting in scoring is production from the defense. Through four games, seven defensemen have a total of two assists (Colin White and Paul Martin). The seven have a total of 22 shots (by way of comparison, Mike Green has 21, and the other five – not including Sergei Fedorov – have 19).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New Jersey: Jamie Langenbrunner

Langenbrunner has gotten off to a very slow start – no goals, no assists, minus-1 in 18 minutes a night. However, he is 9-11-20, +10, with two game-winners in 30 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

Backstrom has been off to his own slow start – no goals, an assist, plus-one in almost 19 minutes a night on the top line. But, he is 1-4-5, plus-3, with a power play goal in his four games against the Devils. He had at least one point in each of the games the clubs played last year.

In the end, the Caps remind Brodeur of his contract and its “pay in full” clause. The Devil gets his due, tonight, not the Devils…

Caps 3 – Devils 1

You have to love this guy

In his Capital Insider column this afternoon, Tarik El-Bashir writes...

"[Matt] Bradley said he required a dozen or so stitches on the inside and outside of his upper lip after his fight with Paul Bissonnette last night. The complexity of the stitch job, he said, is what prevented him from getting back on the ice sooner. 'I wanted to come back earlier, but it took them to the end of the second period to finish,' Bradley said. 'It was a tough job; they did a great job.' He added: 'Stitches aren't a big deal. After that I was fine.'

Bradley said the minor league recall 'wanted to make a name for himself' so he began chirping at him and John Erskine early in the game. 'We were down at that point,' Bradley said. 'So I figured let me do something to spark the team.'"

That's called stepping up for the team. Every day, Bradley seems to be cementing his legacy as a Capital "plumbers" hall of famer.

Just sayin'...

In their last 23 regular season games, the Caps have...

- A record of 18-5-0 (that's a 128-point pace)

- Outscored their foes 80-48 (exclusive of Gimmick goals)

- Eight wins of at least three goals

- A power play humming at 21.5 percent

- Eight come-from-behind wins

It's early, which is cause for temperance, but ya know?...they're pretty good.

A TWO-Point Night: Caps 4 - Penguins 3

The Caps proved once again that: a) no lead is safe, and b) that they have issues to deal with, as they came back from a 3-0 deficit 22 minutes into the game to defeat the Pittsburgh Penguins, 4-3.

Here are our take aways for the game…

- Pittsburgh came into the game as a bad five-on-five team. They finished the game as the worst five-on-five team in the league, giving up three goals for each one they score (they were outscored 4-0 at even strength last night).

- For all the talk of the stars – Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby – their effects were more subtle. Crosby, as one might expect, was sharp in directing the power play. Ovechkin was an important decoy on the winning goal…Marc-Andre Fleury had to know out of the corner of his eye that Ovechkin was lurking on the weak side when Boyd Gordon snapped the puck past him for the game-winner.

- We learned from the Pittsburgh TV crew that #14 for the Caps is “TOH-mee” Fleischmann (not Tomas, like it says in the program).

- Crosby didn’t play badly, but he was conspicuously involved in the Caps third and fourth goals, turning the puck over in the offensive zone and allowing the Caps to breakout (Nylander finishing off a pass from TOH-mee Fleischmann) and losing a faceoff to allow another breakout by the Caps (Gordon finishing with Ovechkin on the doorstep).

- Ovechkin didn’t play badly as much as he’s in one of those streaks when the puck just doesn’t find a hole. He had five shots and had four others blocked. He also had three hits...all, we think, on Evgeni Malkin, who wondered after the game, "Ovechkin is a great player, but every time he hits me - I don't know why." It’s because you have the puck, pal. Geez, you took nine shots…think folks won’t be paying attention?

- Speaking of shots…Malkin had nine, Crosby five, and the rest of the Penguins?...12.

- How hot is Alexander Semin? He is 4-4-8, +5 in his first four games. If you take the first four games of each of his previous three seasons and combined them, he was 6-3-9, +1.

- Alexander Ovechkin has two goals in four games…the same two goals after four games he had last year…and the same two goals in four games he had the year before that.

- For as much grief as Olaf Kolzig took last year for his inability to recover once he made an initial save, Jose Theodore is picking right up in that regard…that goal from Alex Gologoski (did this game set an early season high for Alexes on the ice?) was not what folks had in mind when Theodore was brought in.

- Today’s “do what you can when what you do isn’t working” award goes to Nicklas Backstrom. No goals, no assists, no points in 20-plus minutes of work, but he did have three shots on goal, had four others blocked, two hits, two blocked shots of his own, and won seven of 13 draws.

- Gotta give a round of applause to Matt Bradley. Paul Bissonnette is a load…he had 26 fights in the AHL last year (and another three in the ECHL for good measure), and he had four in this year’s preseason. He’s a practiced puncher. Bradley walked into one that got him a bloodied nose, but he came back out for the third and took four more shifts (generally his average per period).

- Eric Fehr quietly had an effective night with two assists, including the one (born out of fighting off Hal Gill for the puck) that sprang Gordon out of the Caps’ end of the ice for the winning goal.

- Kris Letang had a brutal night…-3, and he had a really good view of Fleischmann’s goal (late to cover him at the top of the crease) and of Fleischmann’s pass to Nylander for a goal (when he got turned around as the last man back and was late in stepping up on Fleischmann).

- Speaking of that goal, the setup actually came when Alexander Semin was crossing the blue line and found Fleischmann on the far side as Nylander was cutting between them. It was a superb play on Semin’s part.

- So far this year, the Caps have been outscored 8-4 in the first period. Fortunately, they’ve outscored opponents 8-2 in the second and 5-3 in the third. Here’s an idea…get off to better starts. Yeah, we know…easier said than done.

- The Caps have yielded seven power play goals in 24 opportunities. They’re not last in the NHL in penalty killing, but they can see it from there.

- Consistency…four…four…five…four. That’s the goals scored by the Caps so far.

- Tom Poti played 4:23 before departing with a groin injury. The Caps don’t have to call up a defenseman, but if they move Sergei Fedorov to the blue line, Chris Bourque might be getting a call.

- It’s early, so we’ll qualify this observation with the fact that there are 78 games to go, but the Penguins look an awful lot like the 2006-2007 Tampa Bay Lightning…a good team, not as good as the year before, and one that is very top heavy (in this case with centers) at forward. None of the wingers for the Penguins impressed last night, with the possible exception of Miroslav Satan, who was the right guy in the right place for a goal. Getting Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney can cure some of that problem, but they’re not wingers, and the Penguins are neither strong, nor deep at that position.

- So let’s see…the Caps beat guy they couldn’t beat with a baseball bat earlier in the week (Roberto Luongo)…they beat a team that beat them like a dusty rug the last three years (Pittsburgh). Next…Martin Brodeur, who is 32-12-4, 2.11, .913 in his career against Washington. This could be a nice week with a win on Saturday.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Penguins, October 16th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Tonight, it is the first chapter of Volume IV in the continuing drama, “Ovechkin vs. Crosby.” The Caps travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Penguins, and to get ready for the big game, we took a trip to the Mario Lemieux Memorial Home for Aged Penguins to see what brethren of the flightless foul thought about tonight’s contest…

Tennessee Tuxedo, you spent a lifetime trying to escape from the zoo, but you seem very much at home here.

“Well, Phineas J. Whoopee pays the rent, and the zoo closed long ago, so…”

About tonight’s game…the Penguins were Stanley Cup finalists last year, but lost a whole herd, flock, gaggle…what’s the right word here…

“How do I know? I’m a cartoon penguin…”

“Duhhhh…I think the word is ‘rookery,’ Tennuhsee…”

“Right you are, Chumley…what was the question?”

Will the Penguins repeat?

“The only thing they’ll be repeating this year is the herring and peanut butter sandwiches they have in the pregame meal.”

What’s that racket down the hall?

“Oh, that…that’s ‘The Penguin.’ He thinks he’s a mastermind criminal or something, but all he does is waddle around with an umbrella, quacking about some guy in tights named ‘Batman’...”

And they keep him locked up?

“Yeah…but Ray Shero was here the other day to see if he’d sign up to replace Jarkko Ruutu.”

And?

“The Penguin insisted on wearing that stupid top hat on the ice…”

Say?...who’s that walking down the hall?...Opus?...Opus!

“huh?”

Did we catch you coming out of the shower?

“No, I always walk around with a shower cap and a towel…”

He’s grumpier than I would have imagined…

“He’s been in a snit ever since he lost the lead in ‘March of the Penguins’”

There seem to be a lot of bitter penguins here…but here’s Chilly Willy, who we remember as a cute little guy who was kind of quiet and shy…Chilly, what do you think of…

“f*** off…”

Well, I guess that the ill will might be a product of the off season the Penguins had, when they lost Marian Hossa, Ryan Malone, Jarkko Ruutu, Ty Conklin, Georges Laraque, and Gary Roberts. That is almost a third of the players who dressed for the Penguins in the last game of the season, a 3-2 loss to Detroit in the Stanley Cup final (Georges Laraque has also departed). Add to that the fact that the Penguins are missing defensemen Sergei Gonchar and Ryan Whitney to injury and that is more than a third of that final-game lineup needing to be replaced by new faces.

Those replacements start with Miroslav Satan and Ruslan Fedotenko to nominally replace Hossa and Malone on the wings. Combined, Satan and Fedotenko (32-42-84) barely replace Hossa’s 2007-2008 production (29-37-66). Neither provide the grittier play of a Ryan Malone.

With Gonchar and Whitney on the shelf, attention will turn to youngsters Kris Letang and Alex Gologoski. Neither have lacked for ice time in the three games the Penguins have played thus far. Gologoski has averaged just over 18 minutes a night, and Letang leads all defensemen with 23:48 a game.

Replacing Ruutu’s annoying qualities will be Matt Cooke, who spent a few weeks in Washington last spring. He hasn’t gotten off to a great start (one assist and -2 in four games), but he’s not there to be a scorer, either.

If there is a surprise in here, it is that Tyler Kennedy leads the Penguins in scoring (2-1-3). Kennedy had a decent, if unremarkable, rookie season last year (10-9-19, +2, in 55 games), but is the only Penguin with more than one goal and has one of the two game-winners that the Penguins have.

But the Penguins still have that core of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, and Marc-Andre Fleury. The three centers have not exploded out of the gate (a combined 1-6-7, +2), but that is as much a warning as anything else. Crosby is 7-12-19, +7 in 11 career games against Washington, Malkin is 4-8-12, +2 in eight games, and Staal is 3-1-4, +2 in eight games. Meanwhile, Marc-Andre Fleury has never lost to Washington – perfect in seven decisions – while posting a 1.98 GAA and .939 save percentage.

The Penguins still have the core down the middle, but they are thinner on the wings than last year and in ill-health on the blue line. It is a team that at the moment looks as if it is capable of much more inconsistency – a big night one night and going dormant the next. They have not yet had that big night, having failed to score more than three goals in regulation in any of their games thus far.

The Penguins are 10-1-1 against the Caps since the lockout (outscoring the Caps 50-34), 6-0-1 in one goal games, and 5-0-1 in Mellon Arena. However, the Caps currently lead the Penguins in scoring (4.33/game to 2.25/game), 5-on-5 goals ratio (1.33 to 0.60), and power play (26.7% to 12.5%). The Penguins lead the Caps in the defensive statistics (goals allowed, penalty kill, and faceoffs). It is perhaps equal parts the early stage of the season we’re in and the relative depth of these current rosters that the Caps are the more explosive team to date.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder…

Pittsburgh: Petr Sykora

After missing three games with a groin injury, Sykora returns to the lineup tonight. He had goals in each of the last two games against the Caps last year and is 7-14-21 in 34 career games against Washington.

Washington: Chris Clark

Clark missed three of the four games against the Penguins last year with his own groin problems, but he is 5-4-9 in 12 games against Pittsburgh in his career. He appears to be the replacement for injured Viktor Kozlov on the top line with Alex Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom, so he should get opportunities to add to that total.

In the end, Washington this time around has too much depth for the depleted blue line corp for the Penguins to deal with. Fleury will be facing a ton of shots, and even if he is sharp, he can't stop them all...

Caps 5 - Penguins 3

2008-2009 Western Conference Prognostications

East was East, and this is West…

1. Detroit

The good: You won 54 games, had 115 points, won the Western Conference title, won the Stanley Cup champion, and you lost no one of critical importance. To this, you added Marian Hossa. Shouldn’t Congress be investigating this sort of thing? But that’s the splashy addition. The one the Wings don’t get enough attention (or credit) for is signing Ty Conklin, who pretty much saved Pittsburgh’s season last year when Marc-Andre Fleury went down with a high-ankle sprain. Detroit doesn’t rebuild, they don’t even reload. They just have oodles and oodles of guns.

The bad: We are of a mind that there are 20 games a team will win, no matter what. And, there are 20 games a team will lose, no matter what. The Red Wings lost 21 games last year, so they pretty much maxed out on that philosophy. Whether they do so this year will be a product of whether Chris Osgood is “as-good” in 60 games as he was in 43 (the number in which he played last year). But frankly, we’re stretching here. The Wings are loaded.

Outlook: It is extremely difficult to repeat as Stanley Cup champion these days, and that is the only standard that matters for the Wings (they are the last franchise to have repeated, in 1998). They might have a marginally tougher time within their division this year than they had last year – their competition has improved – but it won’t be so much as a speed bump to the playoffs.

2. San Jose

The good: San Jose is “Detroit-lite” (regular season version) in this respect – they finished second in the conference last year, didn’t really lose anyone of critical importance (unless you’re including the rental Brian Campbell), and added Dan Boyle from Tampa Bay to improve the power play. Evgeni Nabokov established himself (again…in the regular season…think there is something coming?) as a top-notch goaltender, and it seems unlikely that Jonathan Cheechoo will continue his free-fall in goal scoring (from 56 three years ago to 23 last year).

The bad: The Sharks have shown themselves to be little more than regular season wonders, and that falls squarely on the shoulders of Joe Thornton, fairly or not. He’s averaged 101 points a year over the last three years…he has a total of five goals in 35 playoff games over the same three seasons. Nabokov didn’t have a bad playoff – his statistics were roughly comparable to his regular season results – but he was inconsistent. In six of his first nine playoff games last year he allowed three or more goals. Until the big guys step up in the playoffs, they will continue to be something of a regular season wonder.

Outlook: On paper, San Jose is somewhat better than last year, but certainly not better in the same way Detroit is. The Sharks still, despite a change behind the bench to Todd McClellan, have the look of a team that will get 105 points, win a playoff series (maybe), then go out to the disappointment of their fans the head scratching of the hockey punditry.

3. Calgary

The good: Someone has to win the weak Northwest Division, and Calgary is as good a choice as any. The Flames have top-end talent in Jarome Iginla, Dion Phaneuf, and (if he plays to his 2006-2007 level, instead of last year’s) Miikka Kiprusoff. That should keep the Flames in most games. Adding Mike Cammaleri from Los Angeles should add some punch to a roster that was 14th in scoring last year.

The bad: When you are standing behind your eighth NHL bench, one might be forgiven for thinking that it is a matter of “when,” not “if” things will eventually end unpleasantly. That’s the case with Mike Keenan, who is in his second year in Calgary. He has never lasted more than four years at any stop and has lasted three or fewer in his last five postings. We guess that means he’s safe for this year, but don’t hold us to it.

Outlook: The Flames will be a rugged, in your face group, which is pretty much the way Kennan teams play. Kiprusoff has to play better this year than last to make this work, though. 39 wins isn’t bad, but Kiprusoff finished 28th in GAA and 30th in save percentage last year. Calgary found a way to scratch out enough offense to finish tied for 13th in scoring. But this doesn’t have the look – even with the addition of Todd Bertuzzi and Cammaleri – of being a team that will generate a lot of offense.

4. Dallas

The good: Last year, Dallas was a top ten team in scoring (9th) and defense (6th in goals allowed). That was with Brad Richards playing only 12 games after being obtained at the trading deadline from Tampa Bay. One figures he hasn’t lost his playmaking touch (an average of 73 assist/82 games played in his career coming into the year), and he can’t be as bad as the -27 he put up last year with Tampa Bay and Dallas. Then there is the matter of Sean Avery. He stands alone at the top of the heap of players whose eyes hockey fans would like to gouge out with a grapefruit spoon, but the Rangers were a better team with him than without him on the ice last year. That doesn’t figure to change in Dallas.

The bad: Does Mike Modano have anything left? He’s never had a 100-point season, but he’s only had 100 points the last two years combined. Perhaps more ominously, he was a team worst -11 (among players in Dallas for the entire year) last year. Dallas had career goal scoring years from Brenden Morrow, Mike Ribiero, and Niklas Hagman – all with 27 or more goals. If they can’t repeat that, it’s hard to tell from where Dallas is going to get any consistent goal scoring.

Outlook: If…If the Stars can get years out of Morrow, Ribiero, and Hagman that they got last year. If Richards returns to something that more closely resembles his better years in Tampa Bay. Then Dallas is the second best team in the West. But here is something to ponder…in the three years since the lockout the Stars have finished no worse than fourth in fewest shots allowed (second in each of the other years). This has masked a drop off in goaltender Marty Turco’s save percentage (no lower than .913 before the lockout, no better than .910 since). In Dallas, it’s the system. How they play it will be what to watch.

5. Anaheim

The good: Teemu Selanne is back for a full year after playing only 26 games last year. He had 12 goals in those 26 games, only slightly less than the pace he set when he scored 48 in 2006-2007 and 40 in 2005-2006. Scott Niedermayer is back for a full year after playing in only 48 games last year. Ryan Getzlaf appears to have arrived as a point-a-game player, and Corey Perry isn’t far behind. Through games of December 14 last year, Francois Beauchemin was -9. That’s important because Niedermayer rejoined the lineup on Deecember 16th. After that, Beauchemin was even though the rest of the year. Something to think about for this year, with Niedermayer with the Ducks from the start.

The bad: Goal scorers are an odd bunch. Consider Peter Bondra. He had 45 goals with the Caps in 2000-2001. Then he went 39-30-26-21-5 to end his career. Selanne is 38 years old. Is he getting to be about that age to see a slip? There really isn’t a lot more about this club one can think of as bad, or even potentially so. Neither do they look better.

The outlook: The Ducks are a veteran team (only three players younger than 25 on the opening night roster), which probably means few surprises. J-S Giguere is in the prime of his career, and his last two seasons reflect that (71 total wins, a combined GAA 2.18). This looks like a team built more for the playoffs than the regular season.

6. Minnesota

The good: Marian Gaborik hasn’t been traded (yet). Minnesota might have the best Niklas Backstrom in the NHL – 56 wins the last two years in goal, a GAA of 2.17, a save percentage over .920. This has been a team that has made the most with comparatively meager gifts, which suggests that Jacques Lemaire has done a whale of a job as coach. He’s still there.

The bad: The Wild had nine players in double digits in goal scoring last year. Three of them were not on the opening night roster, and the three missing players (Brian Rolston, Mark Parrish, and Pavol Demitra) were second, third, and fourth in goals last year. If Gaborik isn’t signed to a new deal and is traded, the Wild might not score again this year.

Outlook: Minnesota benefits from playing in a system that masks its talent weaknesses. They will be starved for offense, but it’s not as if pressing the attack is a governing philosophy of the club, anyway. The Wild play Lemaire’s system very well, and there is little reason to believe they will do otherwise this year.

7. Chicago

The good: Having Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews with a season’s worth of experience under their belts. Getting Martin Havlat – a guy who has averaged 30 goals per 82 games over his career – returning to the lineup. Adding Brian Campbell to the club to provide some punch and stability to the blue line, and to complement Brent Seabrook, who had a big leap forward last year (more than doubling his goals scored and improving his plus-minus by a +19).

The bad: They’ll need to sort out their goaltending situation. Cristobal Huet was signed for a bundle, but it’s not apparently clear that he’ll be the number one six months from now, with Nikolai Khabibulin lurking. Neither goaltender is devoid of issues. Khabibulin, for all of his big contract and a Stanley Cup (with Tampa Bay) has not won more than 30 games in ten years. Huet has won more than 30 once (last year) but has never played more than 52 games in a year. Are either of these guys going to be the big hoss to which the Hawks will hitch their wagon in the stretch?

The outlook: Chicago has the look of a team that is perhaps a year away, although a lot of folks said that about the Caps last year, too. We – being peerless in prognostications – had the Caps making the playoffs last year. We expect the Hawks to do the same this year. In a league where young guys make marks earlier in their careers than years past, the Hawks have several very good ones.

8. Edmonton

The good: This is another club that has a good young group of players – Ales Hemsky, Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano, Robert Nilsson, Tom Gilbert…all 25 or younger. Adding an Erik Cole will provide some grit and goal scoring, as well. The Oilers look to have a pretty good mix of youth and veterans (especially on defense) that will allow them to avoid the ups and downs of a more heavily youth-weighted lineup.

The bad: The Oilers had three goaltenders on their opening night roster – Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers, Dwayne Roloson, and Mathieu Garon. That suggests to us that the Oilers just aren’t sure what direction to go in. When the dust settles, it looks like Garon will be the number one, but it might be a shaky perch on which to sit. Garon hasn’t had a bad career to date, statistics-wise, but looking at the three of them, it’s hard to see where the Oilers will have many games stolen by their goaltending. On a young team, that could be a problem.

The outlook: Edmonton has built a team that could challenge in the lower half of the playoff draw this year, so long as the young guys keep improving. There should be some constants – Shawn Horcoff getting 20 goals or so (he’s averaged that in the last three seasons), Dustin Penner providing some toughness and offensive pop (he’s averaged 26 goals the last two years), Steve Staios providing some solid play on the blue line. Edmonton might really be that team that is a year away, primarily because of its goaltending, but we think they’ll make it this year.

9. Colorado

The good: Last year was the first time since 2001-2002 that Joe Sakic did not average at least a point a game, and it took missing 38 games with a hernia to do it. Sakic is back, and so too might be the point a game production. Paul Stastny has averaged a point a game over his first two years. Marek Svatos rebounded from a 17-goal drop in production last year to post 26 goals.

The bad: The Avalanche, despite being a playoff club last year, was very streaky in the second half. From February 12th through the end of the year (26 games), the Avs lost five in a row, won nine of 11, lost four in a row, then closed the year winning five of six. That kind of inconsistency doesn’t often get rewarded. The Avs also will be turning over the reins in goal to Peter Budaj, who had a fine year in 2006-2007 (31-16-6, 2.68, .905), but appeared in 22 fewer games last year, posting roughly similar numbers (2.57, .903). Behind him is Andrew Raycroft, who is on his third team in four years. He hasn’t had a year were he’s saved as many as 90 percent of the shots he faced since his rookie year.

Outlook: There isn’t a lot of room for error. If any of Budaj, Sakic, or Stastny go down, the Avs will be in real trouble. Adding Darcy Tucker isn’t the answer – he’s gone from 61 to 43 to 34 points the last three years. When you score 61 points and play like he does, you’re “gritty.” When you play that was and get 34 points (with the possibility of sinking further), you’re not gritty, you’re “annoying.” As it is, they are probably on the wrong edge of the playoff mix. Any injuries or bad stretches, and they’re sunk.

10. Nashville

The good: The Predators return four of six players from last year that scored 40 or more points. The Predators have assembled a solid back line. Dan Ellis had a very good year last year in taking over as the number one goaltender when Chris Mason stumbled. Nashville also had one of the best penalty killing units in the league. The Predators proved to be a resilient bunch amid swirls of conversation about the future of the franchise in Nashville.

The bad: They will miss Alexander Radulov’s scoring. It was not an especially potent power play last year, and it won’t be this year, either. Although Dan Ellis performed well last year, he will now have a brighter light shining on his play, and backing him up will be a rookie, talented though he might be, Pekka Rinne.

Outlook: The Predators won’t win on style points. They will win with all the horses pulling in the same direction and through hard work. The problem is that they are a less gifted team than last year’s,and last year’s did have much in the way of top-end skill. They’ll struggle in a division that has teams with superior skill, such as Detroit and Chicago.

11. Vancouver

The good: It all starts with Roberto Luongo, who must feel as if he wronged the hockey gods in a past life to perpetually play behind teams that struggle offensively. But he can steal more than a few games by himself – he’ll have to. After that, the offense boils down to the Sedins, Daniel and Henrik, and not much else, unless Pavol Demitra can rebound from a 15-39-54 effort last year in Minnesota. The Canucks will be in most games on the strength of Luongo and a hard-nosed blue line with Mattias Ohlund, Shane O’Brien, and Willie Mitchell.

The bad: 23rd in scoring last year, 18th on the power play, 25th when trailing first. Vancouver was a poor offensive team, and Demitra isn’t likely to be nearly enough to turn that around.

Outlook: This is a club that wilted in the stretch last year, losing seven of their last eight to finish three points out of the playoffs. Luongo played in all seven, going 1-6-0, 4.02, .864, and getting pulled three times. At some point, such overwhelming reliance on the goaltender out of a lack of reliable or consistent offense takes its toll. And that will be why the Canucks will be out of the money again.

12. Phoenix

The good: The Coyotes probably overachieved last year, even though they finished 12th in the West, and they bring back most of the core of that effort. Shane Doan had perhaps his best year last season, but he gets help this time around in the form of Olli Jokinen. Jokinen should take some pressure off of Kyle Turris in his rookie year in the middle.

The bad: The Coyotes are going to have a hard time getting any offense on the wings after Doan. Radim Vrbata, who was second on the team in scoring last year skating on the right side, is now in Tampa. Peter Mueller performed well in his rookie campaign, but after that, the Coyotes didn’t have a winger with 30 points last year.

The Outlook: This is a very young team, with six roster players who are 21 or younger among the skaters. They are especially young up front with only Doan and Steven Reinprecht older than 30. There will be growing pains. When all is said and done, overachieving last year should not be confused with “good.” There is a promising young nucleus here, but they are some time away from being competitive. Ilya Bryzgalov, who performed well (and often spectacularly) last year, will have to do at least as well for the Coyotes to challenge.

13. Columbus

The good: The Blue Jackets have some capable players in Rick Nash, Kristian Huselius, R.J. Umberger, and Mike Commodore. And they have some promising youngsters in Drerick Brassard and Jakub Voracek. Like Phoenix, though, the youth needs time to deveop a game. On the back line, Rostislav Klesla would probably be a much better anchor if he hadn’t lost large chunks of two seasons to injuries. But he’s only 26. Fedor Tyutin comes over from the Rangers, and he’s only 25.

Bad: Columbus has a culture of losing. Last year was the best in franchise history, but they still finished under .500 with 80 points. It will be an offense-challenged team. How much? Columbus had 34 wins last year – 11 of them came via shutout. It isn’t immediately clear that they will be more potent this year. The Blue Jackets will get some veteran support from Mike Peca and Fredrik Modin, but both are players whose best production appears to be behind them.

Outlook: If Leclaire has the same level of production he had last year, the Blue Jackets will still probably finish with around 80 points. It would be a lot to expect nine shutouts this year, even if head coach Ken Hitchcock stresses defense-defense-defense. There isn’t enough offense among the veterans, and the youngsters are too young yet.

14. St.Louis

The good: Not a lot. Paul Kariya and Keith Tkachuk could provide some offense, but they are 34 (in a few days) and 36, respectively. Brad Boyes had a coming out party of sorts last year with 43 goals. The Blues have some competent defensemen, but the loss of Erik Johnson to a knee injury just about killed whatever thin chance they had to compete this year.

The bad: Last year, the Blues were a bottom third team in goals scored, goals against, and power play (dead last). But at least they could kill power plays (seventh in the league). Well, with Johnson out for the year, can they make it four for four in the bottom five?

Outlook: This is a team that will compete for the top overall pick in next June’s draft. It would seem that they’ll be looking to shop any veteran over 30 come the trading deadline. This will not be a pleasant year for coach Andy Murray.

15. Los Angeles

The good: Anze Kopitar and…well, Anze Kopitar. OK, Alexander Frolov and Dustin Bown will contribute some, but not nearly enough to make the Kings respectable. Patrick O’Sullivan has a world of talent, but he ended a holdout only four days before opening night. The one thing the Kings can’t afford is a slow start by any of their skill players.

The bad: The Kings employed four goaltenders last year, none of whom could reasonably be confused with being a bona fide number one NHL goaltender. Erik Ersberg was the best of the lot, but in only the second most appearances, to Jason LaBarbera. For the moment, LaBarbera looks like the number one. That should not be comforting to Kings’ fans.

Outlook: This will be the worst defensive team in the West, perhaps the worst in the league. A penalty killing unit that was dead last in 2007-2008 doesn’t figure to be better this year. The Kings have some kids in the pipeline, especially on defense (Thomas Hickey, Drew Doughty, Colton Teubert), but with the exception of Doughty, who was on the opening night roster, they are perhaps years away.