The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Panthers, December 2nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, folks, it’s happened again. Two years ago, it happened…last year, it happened. And now, it’s reared its ugly head again. No, not Evgeni Malkin, but the annual injury bug. The Caps have a third of their roster out with a variety of ailments to upper and/or lower bodies, and as with our past experiences in this regard, we’ve assembled our crack team of consulting medicos…


Dr. James Kildare…












Dr. Ben Casey…










Dr. Marcus Welby…











Dr. Victor Ehrlich…







Doctors, it is, as always, a pleasure. Like we said, it’s the annual injury bug that’s hit the Caps. Dr. Kildare, let’s start with you…the Caps have lost, by Tarik El-Bashir’s count, 82 man games to injury. To what do you attribute such a spate of injuries?

“Well...uh…that’s a highly complicated issue.”

Complicated by what, Doctor?

“Aw, I don’t know…I usually just pose a lot and let Dr. Gillespie handle the diagnosis.”

Dr. Welby?...Your take on the injury situation?

"It seems to me they’re not getting enough fiber in their diet.”

Doctor, these are sprains and such, not constipation.

“Well, I’m old, and that’s pretty much what we prescribed for everything when I was making house calls…oh, and sulfa.”

Dr. Ehrlich, do you have an explanation for this rash of injuries?

"Excuse me, but I think you have me confused with someone else…"

Dr. Casey, I know you don’t waffle on these sorts of things…what explains all these guys getting injured?

“—sigh—“

I don’t understand…

“—sigh!—“

Oh, you mean that whole “man-woman-birth-death-infinity” thing…

“No, I’m just pissed off about that whole Sidney Crosby first star of the week thing…”

OK, so we won’t find an answer to the Caps injury problems, but we do have the usual prognostications to cover, and that brings us to the Florida Panthers. When it comes to tonight’s guests, there are the usual numbers we look at…



…but there might be one – or rather two – that tell the tale here. The Panthers are 0-6-2 when trailing after one period, 0-9-1 when trailing after two. It is difficult enough for any NHL team to come back from a deficit, but the Panthers are the only NHL team not to have won a game when trailing after two periods. Part of the problem for Florida is that they are dead last in the NHL in goals scored in the third period (12). However, after starting the year 1-6-1 on the road, the Panthers are 3-2-0 in their last five road contests, including a 4-0 shutout of the Rangers on Sunday.

Among the skaters, the Panthers spread their comparatively meager scoring around – 17 skaters have registered a goal – but few inspire much fear. It’s made worse by an injury bug that has infected their locker room just as it has Washington’s. David Booth is the one guy who has been filling the net with some regularity, having scored 12 goals, but he is out for this game with a bad shoulder. Cory Stillman scored five goals in his first seven games, but sustained an injury in a game against Atlanta on November 2nd that was later diagnosed as a concussion. He tried playing through it, but hasn’t dressed since facing Detroit on November 14th.

If those two are out, the offensive burden would normally fall first to Nathan Horton. Trouble is, he was injured in a game last week against New Jersey, suffering a deep cut when a skate cut through his boot and lacerated his ankle.

So, who does that leave? With 23 of the Panthers’ 55 goals likely to be on the shelf for this one (13 of their 29 road goals), Gregory Campbell and Stephen Weiss would be the top goal scorer and point getter, respectively, taking the ice. Campbell has four goals, Weiss 13 points. This is likely to be a very much offense-starved lineup.

You might think it an opportunity for a leader to step up, to stand up and be counted. Jay Bouwmeester had a brutal start, fueling speculation that his contract situation was weighing on him. A start of 0-6-6, -8 in the first 17 games as your team’s best defenseman at both ends will get folks to talking. But in his last six games, he is 2-5-7, +6.

The Panthers will bring something to this game that the Caps do not, and that is scoring from the blue line. Whereas the Panthers are likely to dress only one forward with double digits in points (Weiss), they could bring three defensemen – Bouwmeester, Bryan McCabe, and Keith Ballard – who have at least ten points. It isn’t a lot to hang their hat on, but the Panthers are in a position of having to scratch out goals from just about anywhere at the moment.

It could fall to goalie Craig Anderson to come up with a big game. Coach Pete DeBoer has already announced that Anderson will get his third straight start over Tomas Vokoun in the Tuesday contest. It will be his fourth straight appearance after replacing an ineffective Vokoun in a 3-2 overtime loss against New Jersey after Vokoun allowed two early Devils goals. Since replacing Vokoun, Anderson is 1-0-2, 1.43, .963, with a shutout. He has struggled against the Caps, though, losing all three of his decisions with a 2.68 goals against average and .909 save percentage. Anderson was the Panther goalie of record in the Caps’ playoff-clinching 3-1 win in last season’s regular season finale.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Florida: Rostislav Olesz

For a guy picked seventh overall in 2004, you expect more of an impact than 35 goals and 82 points in 211 games. So far this year, he is only 2-3-5, -4 in 21 games. He hasn’t had a point in his last seven games, hasn’t had a goal in his last 11. It isn’t as if he’s had particular success against the Caps, either (4-4-8, +2 in 20 games). However, two of his goals are game-winners, and the Panthers are in an injury situation that makes his contributions critical for what success Florida might have tonight.

Washington: Eric Fehr

A subtle change has come to Fehr’s game in the last couple of weeks, at least statistically. Only once in his first seven games was Fehr credited with more than one shot on goal. This is not the sort of outcome one would expect of someone with his scoring pedigree. But in his last six games, he has taken a total of 18 shots. While he has connected on only one of them, he’s now apparently looking more for his scoring opportunities (it’s worth noting that in two of the three games in which he’s registered four shots, he’s had a goal). Call it a hunch, but we think he’s going to find the back of the net for his trouble in this one.

These two teams don’t need locker rooms so much as they could use an emergency ward. There are a lot of man-games that will be on the bench for this one – players that would otherwise make a difference. However, the Caps are the deeper team, the more talented one, and the one with the gaudy home record. If the Caps play to their level of skill and offer an honest effort, the Panthers should not challenge in this one.

Caps 4 – Panthers 1

Leaving Bear Tracks on the Leader Boards

Meanwhile, down in Hershey (where the Bears beat up on the Phantoms, 9-0 last night), the rookie scoring leaders are among the league leaders...

And as far as plus-minus goes, it looks like the Hershey roster...

You'd think that for a team with 17 wins in 23 games, the Bears also would be well-represented in the game-winning goal category. However, only Graham Mink cracked the top ten (eighth, with three), which shows that not only are the Bears winning, but they're spreading things around, too.

Nice month, all in all

So…what did we miss?

The Caps won two of three, scoring eight goals, giving up six. They keep doing that over the rest of the season, they finish with 106 points. We suspect most Caps fans will take that.

The Caps lost a road game. That’s four road losses in a row. No team in the East has more road losses in regulation. Only Florida has as many, and the two have at least two more road losses in regulation than any other Eastern Conference team. Keep that up, and the Caps won’t get to 106.

As for the Hershey Bearpitals – Graham Mink, Sami Lepisto, Karl Alzner, and Chris Bourque – it wasn’t a bad weekend…


…but at least one of this group was on the ice for five of the six goals scored against the Caps this weekend (Alzner 3; Lepisto and Bourque, one apiece). That giveaway number is a nasty one, though.

Alexander Ovechkin attemped 49 shots (19 shots on goal, 19 shots blocked, 11 missed shots). He had 63 shifts in the three games. That’s 0.78 shots/shift, which we’re going to guess led the league…probably by a lot. Some might view this as selfishness (Penguin fans, we’re looking at you), but given the state of the Caps’ health, we look at this as stepping up.

Jose Theodore and Brent Johnson stopped 71 of 77 shots in the three games. A combined save percentage of .922 will give the Caps chances to win in more games than not. And that's stepping up, too.

Is the NHL a frontrunner’s kind of league? Only one team (San Jose) has a winning record when trailing after two periods. The Caps have only won twice in eight such situations (they lost to Columbus in the one instance this weekend), but their .250 winning percentage is good for eighth in the league.

No team in the NHL has a worse goal differential on the road than Washington (-15). No team has allowed more power play goals against (17 in 14 games), which goes along with their having endured the most shorthanded situations (81). Their 55 total goals allowed on the road is six more than any other team (Nashville: 49). That’s bad enough, but there is another problem here…only two teams have given up more goals in the third period than Washington (Columbus and the Islanders). Yes, Detroit has given up 25, while the Caps have allowed 27, but the Caps are not Detroit…mainly because the Caps have also given up 27 in the first period, while the Red Wings have allowed only 15.

Here is the odd thing about the Caps’ penalty killing…79.0 percent at home, 79.0 percent on the road. The difference is in that the Caps have been shorthanded only 38 times in ten home games and those 81 times in 14 road games. It’s all part of a piece…sloppy, lack of energy, absence of focus. They have to become a better road team.

We’re not sure what to make of this one…the Caps have the third fewest fighting majors in the league (eight, behind Detroit and Florida). Three of them came in one game (opening night, a 7-4 loss to Atlanta). The Caps are 4-2-0 games when they recorded a fighting major (they lost another when they drew one, when Tyler Sloan drew a major without incurring one of his own in a 2-1 loss at Calgary).

The Caps finished November with an 8-5-2 mark. That is the first time they have finished a November over .500, and it marks their highest win total since getting nine in November in 1996. If you’re wondering about “best November,” that was in 1985-1986 (10-3-1). As for the years since that nine-win effort…



And if you’re looking ahead to December, that is the best month for the Caps in terms of team record-setting, both for wins (12) and points (26), both in 1984.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Thrashers, November 26th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

'Twas the night before Thanksgiving, when all through the house
Not a pot was yet stirring, not even the mousse;
The dishes were made in the kitchen with care,
In hopes that St. Gibletmas soon would be there;

The children were nestled all snug in their beds,
While visions of stuffing danced in their heads;
And mamma in her apron, and I in my cap,
Had just settled down for a late autumn nap,

When out on the lawn there arose such a clatter,
I sprang from the bed to see what was the matter.
Away to the window I flew like a flash,
Tore open the shutters and threw up the sash.

The wind was rustling the freshly raked leaves,
Raking them again is one of my peeves.
When, what to my wondering eyes should appear,
But a miniature roasting pan, coming ever so near.

With a plump little turkey, so lively and quick,
I knew in a moment they’ll be tasty drumsticks.
More rapid than eagles his coursers they came,
And he gobbled, and gobbled, and called them by name.

"Now, Butterball! now, Free Range! now, White Meat and Dark!
We’ve got to be quiet, lest the dog bark!
To the top of the counter! Nestled tight in the pan!
I love turkey so, I’m really a fan!"

And then, in a twinkling, I knew in the fridge
Were treats for the morning (could I have just a smidge?)
As I drew in my hand, and was turning around,
Through the kitchen door St. Gibletmas came with a bound.

He was dressed all in feathers, except for his beak,
He was here for a purpose and wouldn’t be meek.
A bundle of side dishes he had on his wing,
They smelled oh, so good, I just wanted to sing.

He was chubby and plump, a right jolly old bird,
And I laughed when I saw him, I’m just such a nerd;
A wink of his eye and a twist of his head,
Soon gave me to know I had nothing to dread.

He spoke not a word, but went straight to his work,
And filled all the dishes; then turned with a jerk,
And laying his wing aside of his beak,
And giving a nod, to the oven he’d sneak.

He sprang to his pan, to his team gave a gobble,
And they took to the air with nary a wobble.
But I heard him exclaim, as I turned up the heat,
"Happy Thanksgiving to all, hey folks, let’s eat!!!"


While you’re pondering the possibilities of food, football, and fun on Turkey Day, there is the matter of the Caps and the Thrashers as the good guys return from a road trip. Let’s face it, the Thrashers should (and we do want to emphasize “should”) be just the recipe for some tasty home cookin’. This is not a particularly good hockey team, as the numbers suggest:



The Thrashers can, however, pose problems. Smacking the Caps around in a 7-4 opening night win is proof enough of that, although the Caps did wipe out a 3-1 first intermission disadvantage before giving up three goals in the third in the loss.

Since that first game, though, these teams have gone in different directions, and this is no more apparent than how they’ve started games. Since that opening night loss, the Caps have scored 23 first period goals in 20 games. Atlanta, on the other hand, has 13 first period goals in 19 games. But here is the odd part…flip the scenario and well… Atlanta has allowed only 15 goals in the first period since opening night, while the Caps have allowed 22. This suggests that the Caps have to get on top of the Thrashers from the drop of the puck, both as a means to put offensive pressure on the visitors and as a way to keep the Thrashers from taking advantage of early Caps weakness in allowing goals.

That three-goal win was another rarity of sorts for Atlanta. They have only two other three-goal wins this year,both on the road -- at Carolina on November 9th and last night against Toronto. Strangely enough, though, they have not had as many blow-out losses as one might expect. They have a total of only two three-plus-goal losses (7-0 to Philadelphia and 6-1 to New Jersey). The Caps, meanwhile, have five such losses, although of course none of those are at home, where the Caps have not yet lost in regulation.

The other side of the coin is that Atlanta has only two road wins in regulation (the aforementioned win in Carolina and last night’s 6-3 drubbing of Toronto) en route to a 3-5-2 road record.

Individually, the surprise is that Ilya Kovalchuk has only seven goals after 20 games (two in his last eight). At that pace he will end this season with the lowest goal total (29) since his rookie year (also 29, but in only 65 games). But if there is a team he can get back into a groove against, it is Washington. Kovalchuk is 20-25-45, +11, with six power play and three game-winning goals in 38 career games against the Caps.

The points lead is the province of Vyacheslav Kozlov (11-8-19). He’ll be coming in on something of a roll in going 9-6-15 in his last 11 games after a slow start. Kozlov is remarkably efficient as well, having found the back of the net on 33 percent of his shots.

Bryan Little has already surpassed his total scoring numbers from last year (6-10-16 in 48 games). He comes into tonight’s game at 9-9-18, tied with Kovalchuk for second on the team in scoring. Meanwhile, a below-the-radar guy to watch out for might be Jason Williams. Five of his six goals this year have been scored on the road.

On defense, the Thrashers have two noteworthy additions, one of which having at least a semblance of being worthy of the big contract he got as a free agent, the other struggling somewhat. Ron Hainsey signed a big five-year deal in the offseason, and while he has struggled a bit in being on ice for a substantial number of goals (like a lot of Thrashers), he does lead the scoring from the blue line. He had a goal an and assist in the opening night win over the Caps.

On the other side is Mathieu Schneider, although there are signs he’s turning a corner. He recorded one “plus” game in his first 11 as a Thrasher. However, he is plus 4 in his last four games, which is more in line of what was expected when he came to the Thrashers in trade for Ken Klee, Brad Larsen, and Chad Painchaud.

It isn’t immediately clear who will man the nets for the Thrashers. Johan Hedberg got the call last night and got the win in the 6-3 decision over Toronto. The odd part of Hedberg’s performance this year is that he is the only Thrasher goaltender with a winning record (4-3-0) despite having the worst GAA (3.88) and save percentage (.884). It seems hedberg has been around forever and that he’s faced the Caps just about every other game. But he has only ten appearances in his career against Washington, going 6-2-2, 2.66, .911.

If Hedberg doesn’t get the call, it won’t be Kari Lehtonen in his place, Lehtonen being on injured reserve with a bad back. The Thrashers might turn to Ondrej Pavelec. He’s 2-2-0 in five appearances, but has a respectable 2.33 GAA and .913 save percentage. In his only appearance against the Caps, he allowed only one goal in winning the decision.

Here is your odd stat about the Thrashers. They are last – 30th – in the NHL in hits. Frankly, we find that more than a bit surprising.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Atlanta: Todd White

White looks a little like the treasurer of our senior class in high school. It hasn’t stopped him from taxing the Caps. After scoring one goal in his first dozen games against Washington, he has five goals in his last seven contests against the Caps. And last night, he broke a five game scoreless streak with a pair of goals against Toronto.

Washington: Jose Theodore/Brent Johnson

Whoever gets the nod in goal for the Caps, it will be important to keep the net clear to give the Caps a chance to reassert their home dominance and get off the three game losing streak they’re on. The Caps have given up a lot of first minute and/or first shot goals this year. Preventing those sorts of lapses will go a long way to ensuring that the Caps keep their unbeaten-in-regulation streak intact. All of that starts with the goalie. Johnson is 7-3-2, 2.49, .912 with two shutouts against Atlanta in his career, while Theodore is 11-4-0, 2.40, .916 in his career against the Thrashers. Nice numbers…too bad both had their troubles against Atlanta in the opener. It can’t – and shouldn’t – happen again.

The Caps are coming home with a limp. Sergei Fedorov, Alexander Semin, Mike Green, Chris Clark, Boyd Gordon, John Erskine…all are nursing injuries of varying severity. Wes Johnson might be calling for volunteers by the first intermission over the public address system. Even if he doesn’t, though, the Caps still have the horses to beat a team that will be playing the back-half of back-to-back road games. It might not be as pretty as it would otherwise be with a healthy team, but the Caps will find their turkey tasting pretty good on Thursday…

Caps 5 – Thrashers 2

Speaking of turkey, we’ll be off for a few days enjoying the holiday…see you on the weekend.

The REAL Energizer Bunny

Seems the NHL has named an "official battery" of the league in Canada. It's the official battery of the NHLPA, too. As you might expect, Energizer Canada is the official sponsor. Why is this something you might expect?

Well, consider the mascot...

The Enervechkin Bunny....he keeps going and going and going...

Thanks to #1JohnnyFan on The Official for pointing the way.

Scouting Reports: Bouchard on Bouchard

"He's close to the type of player as me, but he's bigger, he's really good in front of the net, too, and he's got a better shot...he's a good goal scorer."

So says Pierre-Marc Bouchard, Minnesota Wild forward, about his brother Francois Bouchard, Hershey Bear (and Capital prospect) forward.

The elder Bouchard added...

"To be honest, I think my brother's better, too."

The tale o' the tape:

...you decide.

A Year in the Life

The Caps now have one full year’s worth of games in the books under Bruce Boudreau, and what an 82-games it has been. This is not a look at Boudreau’s record compared to that of any of his his predecessors. In a sense, it is a “State of the Caps” reflection. And what the Caps have become is a very good team. Here are the particulars over the last 82 games:


The team record is impressive enough, but some of the individual records are amazing. If you look at the Caps that have dressed this year and include the 61 games from last year, their 82-game totals look like this:


Some of the things that stand out…

- Yes, Alex Ovechkin can score, but +40?.

- Despite a slow start this year, Nicklas Backstrom is pretty much a point-a-game player…at 21.

- Mike Green looks more like the top offensive defenseman in the league, and that plus-24 doesn’t look bad, either.

- Tied with Green for third in goal scoring…Brooks Laich. Caps fans have made him something of a cult hero…but, bet there isn’t another fan base in the NHL that could pick him out of a lineup. Let’s keep it that way.

- Tom Poti’s plus-minus would have tied for his best season’s worth in his career.

- All of a sudden, Tomas Fleischmann looks like a contributing NHL player.

- Boyd Gordon and David Steckel – pretty much pigeon-holed as defensive/faceoff specialists – don’t need much of a push to get to being double-digit goal scorers, too.

- 17 players with double-digit point totals is pretty good balance.

- The 3.16 goals-per-game would have led the NHL last year.

- If Alexander Semin is healthy, he looks like a 40-goal kind of scorer.

- Were you thinking of Jeff Schultz as a 20-point defenseman?

- Keep in mind that Michael Nylander and Sergei Fedorov have fewer than half a season’s worth of games here. At their pace, the Caps might have a roster of six 50-point players…seven if Viktor Kozlov had found a spare point somewhere.

A winning streak here or a tough road trip there is one thing, but this is now a body of work. It shows the Caps to be a very good team – a contender, in fact. One might not call them a favorite right now, one need only look at the way they struggled against San Jose to see that. But there are 61 games left in this season to take the same kinds of steps they took last year. Last year, it was moving up from struggling also ran to playoff team. This year, it could be taking the leap from playoff contender to Cup contender. Some tweaking of the roster might be in order to get there (the Caps could use some more grit in their game, for example), but the pieces are largely in place.

A no-point night: Wild 4 - Caps 3

67.2 Minor Penalty – Player - A player shall be permitted to catch the puck out of the air but must immediately place it or knock it down to the ice. If he catches it and skates with it, either to avoid a check or to gain a territorial advantage over his opponent, a minor penalty shall be assessed for “closing his hand on the puck”.

A minor penalty shall be imposed on a player who, while play is in progress, picks up the puck off the ice with his hand.

Every Caps fan watching this evening’s 4-3 loss to the Minnesota Wild will have this rule memorized by morning. A penalty that doesn’t get called twice in a month was called on the Caps twice in the space of 27 seconds in the third period, and it led to the Wild scoring the third of their four goals en route to the win (Marek Zidlicky was called for this earlier in the game for the Wild).

They were two penalties out of six called on the Caps, five of which were what we might refer to as “passive” penalties – the kind teams playing tired and hurt seem to take (for the record: two holding, a tripping, and the two “closing hand on the puck” calls).

The story in this one, as much as the loss, was the short bench the Caps used. In addition to Mike Green, Alexander Semin, and Sergei Fedorov missing this one, the Caps had four players who skated fewer than ten shifts...

Boyd Gordon lasted five shifts (3:41). He had won five of six draws to that point. He apparently had back spasms.

Jeff Schultz skated three shifts (3:09) before leaving with what appears to be a broken finger. He had a pair of blocked shots.

Donald Brashear was on the ice for nine shifts – not unusual in the normal course of events.

Chris Clark skated eight shifts – only one in the third period (a total of 7:27) – and had a blank score sheet save for one hit. We keep thinking that there just has to be something not right with Clark, but whatever the case, he is having a devil of a time out there in what we suspect is about the most frustrating stretch of his career.

That left things up to Tom Poti to log almost 29 minutes on the blue line and Alex Ovechkin to skate almost 26 minutes. Even Brooks Laich and Milan Jurcina logged more than 20 minutes. For Laich it was only the third time he topped 20 minutes this year, and his 21:03 was the most time he’s spent on the ice so far. For Jurcina, his 21:25 was his top time-on-ice mark this year, 3:36 longer than his previous high.

And with all of that, if there is a silver lining in this one, it is that the Caps didn’t mail the last dozen minutes in the way they could have after the Wild took a 4-0 lead. Did the Wild sit back a bit and play an uncharacteristic prevent defense? Yes, they did. But the Caps took advantage, and one had to like the effort by Eric Fehr to outwork Kim Johnsson for the puck along the boards, Fehr’s effort to ward off Johnsson’s attempts to impede his progress down the wing, and his finding Matt Bradley coming down the middle for a goal. And there was Bradley sticking with it, taking a second whack at the puck while being upended by Nick Schultz in front of goalie Niklas Backstrom.

One also had to like the effort of Alex Ovechkin, despite wearing Wild defenders like a shawl for most of the night. Six shots (16 attempts), a goal, four hits, and three blocked shots (including one scary moment when he took a shot that looked like it hit him flush just above the boot of his skate) made for a very full evening. Frustrating as the Wild could be, he kept plugging.

It set a tone for the Caps in the last dozen minutes that allowed them to get the goal from Ovechkin, who treated the Wild fans to his signature move of skating down the wing, backing up the defenseman, then using him as a screen to snap a wrist shot past the late-reacting goalie. And finally, Nicklas Backstrom corralled a puck that deflected off a Wild player, then fired the puck past the other Backstrom before he could get to the near post.

In the end, though, it was a sour ending to a road trip that is thankfully over. And for this one, yours truly is going to take the blame. That’s right, the Caps lost this one because we picked that clutter-bucker Cal Clutterbuck as the Wild player to ponder. We thought he’d be a player to watch, mostly for his hitting. He didn’t disappoint in that regard, being credited with four hits in a little over ten minutes of ice time. What we didn’t think he’d do is score…and then he gets two goals, his first points in the NHL. Maybe we should have picked Marian Gaborik, instead.

The problem, though, is once more giving up a bunch of goals in a road game. Look, Minnesota has a fine system for keeping goals out of their own net, but they have shown almost no capacity to fill the net at the other end. Coming into this game they had scored as many as four goals in a game once in their previous 15 games. If the Caps could reduce their league worst 4.00 goals-against average on the road, this would be the team against which they could do it. You could say (and the guys on Versus covering the game did) that this was the fourth game for the Caps in six nights, but the Wild isn't a team that should be scoring four goals against the Caps.

The difficulties on the road impress us as a lack of maturity. Consider that the Caps have allowed only 15 goals in eight home games, yet have allowed 52 in 13 road games. What is killing them is taking penalties, and it did so again tonight. With the two power play goals allowed tonight, the Caps have given up a league-high 17 power play goals (tied with Nashville) away from Verizon Center. They’ve only allowed six in eight home games. It just seems as though it’s a reflection of a young team that loses focus, patience, and poise in some situations in hostile rinks, leading them to take untimely penalties, then failing to work things out in the two minutes they spend the man down. Tonight, four of the six minor penalties taken by the Caps were taken by defensemen, and with a group already depleted by the absence of Mike Green, and injuries to Jeff Schultz and later to John Erskine, it was just that much more to overcome.

At the other end, the Wild defensemen were effective at both ends. The last dozen minutes notwithstanding, they helped to constantly frustrate the Caps in entering the offensive zone. At the other end, they had a combined 12 shots and went 1-4-5, +1. The Caps blueliners had a total of four shots on goal and one assist.

We’ve said this before, but it bears repeating. The Caps are going to have to play better on the road than they have. Only four teams in the East have fewer road wins than do the Caps (four), and those teams occupy the bottom four spots in the Eastern Conference standings. And, their inability to stop opponents from scoring in these road games has now left the Caps with the second highest number of goals allowed in the Eastern Conference (only Toronto has allowed more road goals). The good news in this is that the Caps have played 13 road games, compared to eight at Verizon Center. But the Caps aren’t going to go 40-0-1 at home, either (much as we’re likely to prognosticate that result).

This is a good team that will only become a great one when they can be as difficult for opponents to play when they host the Caps as when they visit them at Verizon Center. The Caps are not yet that team. Just as the Caps had to grow in adversity last year to discover that they were a good team, perhaps the next 61 games will be as valuable a learning experience in terms of becoming road warriors.

This was the kind of game that will have us reaching to grab a cold one...

...that is, unless Chris Ciamaga is going to whistle us for closing our hand on a bottle.

And the Streak is Broken

The streak of prospect goalie scoring came to an end after two consecutive games in which Caps goaltending prospects notched a point. Michal Neuvirth could not keep the streak alive on Sunday for the South Carolina Stingrays.

He might have been the only Stingray without a point as South Carolina stomped the Mississippi Sea Wolves, 10-0, in North Charleston. Actually, 12 of the 16 skaters registered points, seven of them having multiple point nights. Maxime Lecroix and Travis Morin led the Stingrays with a 2-3-5, +4, and a 2-2-4, +4, night, respectively.

Neuvirth did get the shutout, though, turning aside all 36 shots he faced.

The Stingrays are now tied with the Florida Everblades for first (21 points) in the South Division of the American Conference.

Wild (and Wacky) Quotes...

We were perusing some of the Wild blogs and stopped at "Russo's Rants," a blog authored by Star-Tribune reporter Michael Russo. His latest had some interesting "Lemaire-isms..."

"You know when you get flurry of snow, you might get a [expletive] storm!"

"We’re getting chances that we should score and we don’t score. Now there’s one thing to do, is work harder. When this happens, it’s work harder. It’s not my grandma, it’s not my girlfriend, it’s me working harder! Period! It’s nothing else.”

"Our second periods have been bad, so we have to wake up there. We’ve got to stop to think that we’re home and we’ve got to play. OK?"

"Now we want to have the nice goals. We get the puck, we want to move outside to get the puck back, to make another play. And if he gets it, the other guy moves outside to get the puck to make another play. How many times we’ll try to move outside to get the puck and make another play? If goals are tough to get, we don’t want to make fancy plays. Go at the net. If we get those plays, you don’t say a word. But now, if we get a chance to shoot, … shoot.”

Any of this sound familiar, Caps fans?

Maybe it wasn't Melrose?

The season's first four-goal game goes to...



That's right, Dainius Zubrus tied a New Jersey Devils team record and set a personal best by scoring four in the Devils' 7-3 win over Tampa Bay today. Today's result puts it in the top ten goal-scoring months of his career.





The post-game Lightning analysis was short and succinct...

Coach Rick Tocchet..."Pretty bad effort...A dud."

Goalie Olaf Kolzig..."I definitely needed to be better" (he gave up five goals on 28 shots...his teammates had really good looks at them)

Martin St. Louis..."We take a huge step back...It's really disappointing." (St. Louis scored his 500th point as a Lightning player in this one)

And this on the day the Lightning debuted their third jerseys. They might want to make an alteration...

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Wild, November 24th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s the last game of a road trip, and it ends in the Twin Cities, where the weather is cold, and the temperature of a Wild game is even colder. But there is nothing that can pump some heat into the Xcel Energy Center like a dose of Ovechkin…

Who can turn the world on with his smile?

Who can take a nothing play, and suddenly make it all seem worthwhile?

Well it's you boy, and you should know it

With each deke and every little movement you show it

Goals are all around, no need to waste them

You can light the lamp, why don't you take them

You're gonna score goals after all

You're gonna score goals after all

How will you make it on your own?

This season’s awfully long, but this time you're not alone

But it's time you started scoring

It's time you let someone else do some assisting

Goals are all around, no need to waste them

You can light the lamp, why don't you take them

You're gonna score goals after all

You're gonna score goals after all

Folks, go get a dictionary. Now, look up the word, “boring.” You see this, don’t you…

OK, it’s not this year’s team portrait, but you get the point. Minnesota’s game plan is to suck the life out of the building and win games 2-1 in as ugly a manner as can be imagined. They do a very good job of it, as the numbers suggest…

In 18 games, the Wild have allowed more than two goals only five times, only twice in their last ten games. In November they have allowed only four power play goals (34-for-38 on the penalty kill). It isn’t so much that their penalty killing is expert, although it is, as much as it is they don’t have to use it much. No team has faced fewer shorthanded opportunities (70) than has Minnesota. It is even more pronounced at home, where the Wild have found themselves shorthanded only 29 times in nine games (3.22/game). Conversely, the Caps have the fifth highest number of such situations faced so far overall (104) and have been shorthanded 72 times in 12 road games (6.00/game). If there is a silver lining here for the Caps, it is in the perception that the Wild are the New Jersey Devils-lite. Well, the Caps are 3-for-11 against the Devils on the power play so far this year in three games – not many opportunities, but some success.

If the Wild don’t find themselves shorthanded very often, neither do they find themselves often having the man-advantage. They are 28th in total power plays so far (77 in 18 games), although they enjoy somewhat greater frequency on the power play at home (42 in nine games). Meanwhile, the Caps aren’t especially gifted when it comes to earning power plays overall (86 in 20 games – 21st in the league), but they are fifth in total power play opportunities on the road (54 in 12 games).

Individually, the Wild Style (now there's an oxymoron) is reflected most in the numbers put up by their version of Niklas Backstrom. The Helsinki, Finland, native ranks fourth in GAA (2.00) and save percentage (.932) having appeared in 17 of the 18 games the Wild have played. The odd part about Backstrom’s game thus far, though, is that for the first time in his three seasons in the NHL, his home record is worse than his road record. Not that it is bad, mind you -- he is 5-2-1, 2.11, .925 at Xcel Energy Center this year. Of additional note, he has not lost to an Eastern Conference opponent yet in regulation, going 5-0-1, 1.94, .929. In his only appearance against Washington, Backstrom allowed four goals on 26 shots in a 4-1 loss on trading deadline day last February.

If it isn’t Backstrom, it will be Josh Harding, who is 0-1-0 this year in two appearances (1.84, .927). He has never faced Washington.

The Wild are likely to be without Marian Gaborik for the 17th straight game as the forward rehabilitates a “lower body injury” (Gray’s Anatomy, NHL edition…”lower body”…”upper body”…that’s it).

Gaborik’s absence has meant that the offense, such as it is for the Wild, has been by committee. Mikko Koivu leads the team in total scoring (5-13-18, +5), while Antti Miettinen and Andrew Brunette lead the Wild in goal-scoring with six apiece. Brunette has something of a cottage industry in making the team that drafted him (7th round in 1993) pay. He is 8-5-13 in 18 games against the Caps.

If there is an odd aspect to the Wild attack, it is how the defense becomes a force on the power play. The Wild defenseman corps is 9-21-30 overall, but are 6-12-18 on the power play. That is six of the total of 16 power play goals coming from the blue line. There are three Wild defensemen who have had particular success against Washington on the power play. Marc-Andre Bergeron is 2-4-6 in five career games against the Caps, both of the goals coming on power plays. Kim Johnsson is 5-10-15 in 23 career games against Washington with four of those goals coming with the man advantage. Marek Zidlicky (seriously) is 3-1-4 in three career games against the Caps, all three goals coming on the power play.

Speaking of the power play, the Wild don’t have a lot of goals with the man advantage (those 16 rank 18th in the league), but they spread it around. Eight different players have scored at least one (the same number as for the Caps). Clearly, the ability of the Wild to activate their defense in the offensive zone – getting shots on goal and getting points in the process – will be something to watch.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder:

Minnesota: Cal Clutterbuck

Not only does he have perhaps the best hockey name in the NHL, but Clutterbuck is the kind of player that could have Caps’ heads on a swivel. Clutterbuck is sixth among forwards in the NHL in total hits. What sets him apart is that he is doing this in far less ice time than the five forwards ahead of him (5:15 less than Milan Lucic, who has the lowest average ice time of those ahead of him). And, he does this with remarkable discipline. Clutterbuck has only one fighting major penalty this year and two minors. He’s not going to get a lot of time, and he almost certainly won’t score (he has no points this year). But he could be a factor in ways that won’t show up on the score sheet.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Sometimes, being the star isn’t fair. With Alexander Semin and Sergei Fedorov likely to be missing once more, the status of Mike Green downgraded to “out” for this game, and (as Tarik El-Bashir reports in The Post) a number of other players nursing nagging ailments, the burden will fall even more heavily on the guy every team game plans for, anyway. But then, that’s why he’s paid the big bucks, too. This is an opportunity for Ovechkin to strike a line through one more team against which he hasn’t scored a goal (having failed to do that against Los Angeles and San Jose) and to help end a losing streak before it gets started. Ovechkin is on a seven-game points streak (6-10-16, +4).

The Caps have never won on Wild ice. They have a total of three goals scored in going 0-3-1. Getting three goals against this team would be something of an achievement, given the style the Wild play, the health of the Caps, and the fact that the Wild have surrendered as many as three goals in a game only once in their last seven home games (a 3-2 loss to Vancouver on November 20th). But, let’s not forget where we are…that score sounds about right:

Caps 3 – Wild 2

Anything you can do...

So, Simeon Varlamov got his first point as a pro on Friday. Well, Daren Machesney apparently views this as a competition. The Hershey netminder recorded an assist -- as with Varlamov's, on the game-winning goal -- as the Bears defeated Bridgeport, 4-1, to regain the top spot in the East Division of the AHL last night. It was Machesney's first point of the year, his fifth as a member of the Bears.

Sami Lepisto had the game winner for the Bears, who added tallies by Keith Aucoin, Oskar Osala, and Graham Mink. Machesney stopped 17 of 18 shots in the win.

A NO-point night: Sharks 7 - Caps 2

…they’ll have their butts handed to them.

Sorry, we were just finishing the thought we started the last time we wrote a wrap-up, as in:

“[A game like that against the Kings] just shouldn’t happen again tomorrow night, because if it does…

And the San Jose Sharks did just that in treating the Caps like chum in a 7-2 win last night. We could talk about numbers and this and that and the other thing, but the one thing that fairly jumped at us was a graphic – the shot chart…


San Jose scored five goals from the doorstep. The Caps barely had five shots from the doorstep. That’s your game. It wasn’t so much that San Jose was willing to pay a price to get themselves into position to score those goals, the Caps simply didn’t offer much in the way of resistance. Brent Johnson, whose GAA (2.26 to 2.79) and save percentage (.928 to .910) took a beating in this game, might have fared better without teammates…fewer bodies to clog his view.

The Caps were guilty of a youthful exuberance…much heat, no light (as is red lights going on). California must have this thing about violence, as in seeing it where it doesn’t exist (like on TV or something). The Caps were credited with 49 hits. That’s a rather amazing number, made more so when you look at it at an individual level…Alex Ovechkin was credited with 10 – one every 2.5 shifts. Chris Clark (five on 16) and Matt Bradley (seven on 19) had about a hit every three shifts. Sergei Fedorov was credited with two in six shifts before retiring for the evening after 4:54 of ice time, an apparent reoccurrence of his ankle injury sitting him down.

Trouble was, none of that alleged physical play was taking place in front of Brent Johnson, where Sharks swam free to deflect point shots and knock in pucks.

Here is a subtle glimpse of the differences between the teams in this game. Defensemen for San Jose attempted 21 shots, 15 of them getting to Johnson. At the other end, Caps defensemen attempted a total of nine shots, only three making it to Sharks’ goalie Brian Boucher. Small wonder that the Sharks’ defensemen were 1-7-8 last night, and the Caps defensemen were 1-1-2. Think the Caps don’t miss Mike Green? The Sharks have multiple copies (though none as prolific as the healthy original).

The Caps were playing their third road game in four nights, the Sharks were resting in their own beds since returning home from a win over Nashville last Sunday. It showed. San Jose took nine minutes to shake out the cobwebs, then scored on their first, third, and fifth shots of the game, all of them from inside the faceoff circles. Game. The rest was for the stat sheet.

We could write about which Caps had good games, but the list would look something like this…

1.
2.
3.

Get the picture? If, though, you’re thinking about Caps who weren’t bad, that list starts with Brent Johnson. How can a guy who gave up seven goals in 28 shots be said to have not had a bad game? With the way San Jose was skating in the slot and Johnson’s face, seven could have been 14. Pucks were changing direction in front of him more than a Caps fan trying to find a meter with time on it ten minutes before the opening face off.

We’re 20 games in, and we’ll have more to say about that another time, but there are some things coming into focus about this team. And nothing is clearer than when they are bad, they are awful. The Caps have lost six games in regulation. In four of those losses they gave up at least five goals (all of them on the road) and lost all of them by at least three goals. In three of those losses, the Caps gave up three goals in the first period. In each instance, we would consider the circumstances an intimidating environment -- opening night in the other guy’s rink (Atlanta, a 7-4 loss), a place where the Caps have had little success (at Buffalo, a 5-0 loss), and a rink where the home team hasn’t lost yet in regulation (San Jose, a 7-2 loss).

That is not a good sign. It suggests that for all the talent on this team, what they are lacking is the swagger that truly good teams have that allows them to go into a hostile rink and eat the other guys’ lunch in front of their fans. If the Caps are going to have long run this spring, they’d better develop that talent. Giving up four goals a game on the road – their mark this morning – isn’t going to end happily.

It won’t get easier for the Caps, as they travel on to Minnesota to end this road trip. They are 1-2-1 this morning on the trip, and a win in Minnesota would not make the trip a success, but it would make things more palatable as the club heads home for Thanksgiving. The Caps and Sharks are similarly skilled teams, but the Sharks imposed their will on the Caps once they got their legs under them. The Wild are similar in that they are all about imposing their will – a suffocating defensive system – on opponents. If the Caps can’t deal with that and turn the tables on the home team…

Bears Win...but that's not the story

The Hershey Bears beat archrival Philadelphia last night, 5-2, at the Wachovia Spectrum in Philly.

Kyle Wilson was the first star of the game with a pair of goals. But it was Simeon Varlamov assisting on the first of those Wilson goals -- the game-winning goal as it turned out -- to record his first point as a pro. He also stopped 30 of 32 Phantom shots to get the win in goal and push his record to 4-0-0 against Philadelphia.

Congrats to Varlamov on his first point in North America.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Sharks, November 22nd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Do you know the way to San Jose? Sorry, that was a Dionne Warwick reference for those too young to have remembered that 1968 hit. And speaking of oldies, the Caps’ visit to San Jose this evening will offer them a chance to do something they have not done since October 30, 1993…beat the Sharks in California. What was happening on and around that date, you ask? Well…

- Vincent Price, legendary star of horror flicks, had just died (no confirmation that he came back as a bat or a zombie, or Dr. Phibes).

- David Letterman was in his first season with CBS.

- “The Rocky Horror Picture Show” had just made its TV debut on FOX.

- “The Iron Chef” – a cooking show pitting two chefs against one another in a stadium format – debuted on Fuji TV (Japan).

- Canada had just completed its federal elections, and Jean Chretien led the Liberal Party to a trouncing of the Progressive Conservative Party, the latter ending up with an historic low of two seats.

- “Dreamlover,” by Mariah Carey, was topping the charts. No, I don’t remember it, either.

- The NBA played its first preseason game overseas – Orlando defeated Atlanta, 120-95, in Wembley Arena, London.

- Al Gore and Ross Perot agreed to debate on “Larry King Live” on the subject of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

- The Toronto Maple Leafs lost a game after a 10-0 start to the 1993-1994 season.

- Martin Fettman, America’s first veterinarian in space, performed the first animal dissection (what other kind would there have been?) in space aboard the Space Shuttle Columbia.

- The Redskins were preparing for a Monday Night Football contest against the Buffalo Bills, one that they would lose, 24-10. And don’t tell us that you know Reggie Brooks led the ‘Skins with 117 yards rushing.

- Oh, and the Dow was at 3680.59…take some comfort in that.

As for comfort, the Caps are likely to enjoy little of it tonight against the Sharks, who have the best home record in the NHL – 10-0-1. Looking at the numbers for the two clubs, this has all the look of a daunting task for the Caps:




The home and road goals and goals allowed numbers are added to indicate just how large the apparent advantage is for the Sharks in this one. For the Caps, this is an especially dangerous game in that not only is San Jose extremely effective at home on offense, but the Caps have allowed more than four goals in five of their 11 road games to date.

So far this season, San Jose has defined the term “relentless” on offense. They are ranked in the top five in scoring, by period, for each period (5th in first period scoring, 2nd in the second, and 4th in the third). On the other hand, the Caps lead the NHL in first period goals scored (24 total), but have tailed off in scoring in the other two period (20 in the second, 18 in the third). That won’t do tonight, especially when one looks to see that the Sharks have the best record in the NHL when scored upon first.

Individually, the Sharks won’t scare people quite as much…until you see their balance. Ten players have posted double digit in points. But that isn’t what is most impressive. 14 of the Sharks’ 16 wins have come in regulation or overtime. 12 different players have game-winning goals.

San Jose is led in scoring by Devin Setoguchi and Patrick Marleau with 22 points apiece. Setoguchi has already surpassed his rookie scoring numbers (11-6-17) with his 11-11-22 line, and he has done it in fewer than half as many games (20, compared to 44 last year). He is coming into this game as a hot commodity, having gone 4-4-8 in his last four games. He has been Ovechkin-like in his approach to offense – he leads the Sharks in shots, including having taken 10 shots on goal in scoring a pair of goals against Nashville on Veterans Day.

Marleau is enjoying something of a resurgence. Coming off a 34-52-86 year in 2005-2006, Marleau saw his goals, assists, and points drop in each of the next two years, going 19-29-48 last year, with a disappointing -19 to go along with it. He’s 9-13-22, +7 so far this year and is tied with Milan Mihalek for the team lead in game winning goals (two). He also leads the team in shorthanded goals (two).

What this means is that Joe Thornton – the big scorer who has been something of the poster child for disappointment for this franchise since his trade from Boston – doesn’t have to shoulder the load or the burden of expectations. He is “only” scoring at a point a game pace, which, if he was to finish the season that way, would be the first such finish on his part since the 2003-2004 season. But it’s hard to argue with success, and Thornton’s reincarnation as something of a “point guard” dishing out assists (16 of his 20 points are helpers) has certainly been met with success on a team-wide scale.

The Sharks are also getting big scoring contributions from the blue line. Combined, the group is 11-49-60, +22 (by comparison, the Caps’ defensemen are 11-24-35, +16). We imagine that Dan Boyle has a smile on his face that lasts all day long, even when he sleeps. Having been freed of the horror show that is the Tampa Bay Lightning, he is tied for the lead among defenseman in scoring (his 6-10-16 is tied with Christian Erhoff’s 2-14-16).

In goal, Evgeni Nabokov suffered a leg injury on the final attempt in a 5-4 Gimmick win over St. Louis on November 6th. However, Brian Boucher stepped right in and went 4-1-1, 2.49, .913 – more than respectable for a backup pushed into emergency service. One can’t help but hope, though, that Boucher is in the nets again tonight, for the last time he faced the Caps, this happened…



If Boucher isn’t given the call, Nabokov appears to be ready to return. If anything, Nabokov has been relatively mediocre in goal. He has 10 wins in 12 decisions, but his 2.72 GAA is 19th in the league, and his .891 save percentage is 32nd. Much of that might be a product of a poor four-game stretch Nabokov had in October in which he was 2-2-0, giving up 18 goals on 101 shots. Otherwise, he’s allowed more than three goals only once – that last game in which he appeared in, against St. Louis.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

San Jose: Joe Pavelski

Lost in all the discussion of the prolific San Jose offense are the contributions of a player like Pavelski, who does chip in offense (7-9-16 in 20 games), but who also is something of a jack-of-all trades. He has three power play goals, a shorthanded goal, has won more than half of his faceoffs (51.4 percent, and has the team lead in draws taken), and leads all Shark forwards in blocked shots. Guys like Thornton, Boyle, Marleau, and Setoguchi are going to be noted on the telecast tonight. You probably won’t be hearing as much Pavelski’s name…and that might be a signal that the Sharks are doing well, because he’s attending to the little things that win games.

Washington: Chris Clark

Clark has struggled mightily so far. He has only two assists, is a minus-4. He hasn’t had much, if any success against the Sharks in his career, either – two assists in 14 games and a minus-6. We’re taking the contrarian view here that Clark could be the ‘X’ factor in this game for the Caps. We’re digging here, but on a western road trip early in the season a couple of years ago, Clark chipped in a couple of points, including a first minute goal that got the Caps off and running against Colorado in a 5-3 win. The year before that he had a couple of assists in an Ovechkin hat trick against Anaheim on another western swing. We might be reaching, but it comes down to this…he’s due.

The Sharks are a team that can win big, or they can win tight. They have the best record in one goal games in the league (7-1-1), and only Chicago has more three-or-more goal wins. If there is a signal here for the Caps, it is that the Sharks have had four one-goal games out of their last seven (posting a record of 3-0-1). It calls to mind the late Herb Brooks, who drilled into his 1980 Olympic hockey team a message concerning the “invincible” Russians…”someone’s gonna beat those guys.” The Sharks aren’t the Russians – the only native Russian on the roster (Alexei Semenov) isn’t likely to play – but they are undefeated at home in regulation, and someone’s gonna beat those guys. It’ll be the Caps…

Caps 3 – Sharks 2

Top Ten Signs Michael Nylander is About to be Traded

Lots of rumors about Nylander going to the Blackhawks. Well, your ol' pal Peerless has the intel on the top ten signs that a deal is imminent...

10. He comes into the locker room with football shoulder pads, announcing, "look, I'm the city of the big shoulders."

9. He asks how "da bearss" are doing against Bridgeport

8. When asked about his favorite SNL sketch, he doesn't miss a beat... "The Super Fans"

7. He sings "Take Me Out to the Ball Game" at the second intermission

6. When Washington beats San Jose, he goes back to the clubhouse screaming, "CAPS WIN! CAPS WIN! CU...UH, CAPS WIN!"

5. He starts talking about how much he likes "sassages" with his morning breakfast

4. Someone discovers he has Cristobal Huet on speed dial on his cell phone.

3. He's seen in front of his locker reading the latest Roger Ebert movie review in the Sun Times

2. A teammate overhears him ordering ahead for a Lou Malnati's deep dish

And the number one sign Michael Nylander is about to be traded...

1. Eklund DOESN'T post about it!

Melrose on coaching, broadcasting...

In Wednesday's St. Petersburg Times, Damian Cristodero wrote about former Lightning coach Barry Melrose and his alleged clashes with owners over players' ice time. Fine...that sort of thing is always an interesting read, but we have no idea how true it is.

However, we were taken by a quote later in the article from Melrose on another subject. Cristodero writes...

"Melrose predicted he "quickly" will be back in broadcasting. He also said his coaching days are over. 'It was perfect,' he said. 'My last game (Thursday) was against the Red Wings, the organization I started with. I think God was trying to tell me something.'"

Perfect? Detroit spotted Tampa Bay two goals before storming back with four of their own (three in the third period) to beat Tampa, 4-3.

Sometimes, God doesn't speak in mysterious ways. He just says, "get out!"

A NO-point night: Kings 5 - Caps 2

They just never got started.

Three shots in the first, six in the second. The Caps just never put enough early pressure on the Los Angeles Kings to remind them of which team had the 25 points and which team had the 16 points as the teams took the ice. The result is that the Kings got a lead, added to it, then padded it with a couple of late empty netters in beating the Caps, 5-2, last night in Los Angeles.

It was a night when things finally caught up with the Caps – the back-half of a back-to-back (following a game in which the Caps might have been tenderized for the Kings a bit by the Anaheim Ducks); the injuries that had piled up to Alexander Semin, Sergei Fedorov, Shaone Morrisonn (who returned last night), and Mike Green; a long run of success by the top line that finally fell a bit to earth (a combined -11 for the Ovechkin-Backstrom-Kozlov line).

It happens. So here are some observations…

The guys the Caps had to watch closely – Dustin Brown, Drew Doughty, and Patrick O’Sullivan – were the ones who did them in. They were the ones who gave the Kings the lead, broke the ensuing tie, and scored the game-winner. Brown added four hits, all of which might have been at the expense of Alex Ovechkin.

Maybe it’s a scoring thing, but 34 hits credited to the Kings? Only three skaters failed to record one. We can understand that might have been a strategy to employ against a team that had played the previous night against a physical opponent, but…34 hits? John Zeiler (you’ll be forgiven if you didn’t have him on your fantasy team – he was making his season debut last night) was credited with five in just over seven minutes of play. There are linebackers in the NFL who don’t get that many hits in a game.

How odd was the scoring on hits?...Michael Nylander was credited with one. That makes three for the year, if you’re counting.

Speaking of Doughty, we don’t get to see this guy a lot, given that he plays most of his games so late for us east-coasters. But if last night was representative of his play, he gets our quarter-pole nod for Calder Trophy favorite.

It isn’t often that the Caps get out-attempted on shots, especially against a team like the Kings that isn’t especially prolific to begin with. But the Caps were out-attempted, 67-55 last night, another indication that their legs just didn’t make the trip from Anaheim.

The power play bugaboo hit the Caps again…five opportunities, five shots (three of them by Ovechkin). Last night they had 11 shots (three goals) on seven opportunities.

The Caps had 12 blocked shots, certainly not a particularly high (or low) number…but Tyler Sloan had six of them.

The Caps took three shots in the first period…all by Alex Ovechkin from an average distance of 49 feet. Second period? Six shots (none from Ovechkin this time) from an average distance of 29 feet. Perhaps not coincidentally, the goal was scored on the shot taken closest to the net (Nicklas Backstrom on a deflection from nine feet). Sure, the Kings came into the game having allowed the fewest shots on goal in the league, but the Caps didn’t do a lot early to keep the Kings from imposing their will, either.

If there was one Cap who did look to be working hard and giving the effort, it was Brooks Laich, who scored a goal, but more importantly was terrific in helping kill off a 5-on-3 power play, getting two blocked shots for his effort.

Unlike most of their recent history, this Kings team has the look of one that could be very good in a couple of years. They skate, work hard, play solid defense, and they have a young core. They are somewhat offensively challenged, but they look as though they have some promise in that area, too. Erik Ensberg wasn’t tested much, especially early, which can be hard on a young goalie in terms of focus. But he played a solid game backstopping the Kings, too. This will be a team to be reckoned with in years to come.

For the Caps, they might have been a bit weary from the contest against the Ducks, and they might have been peeking ahead a bit to the big game against the Sharks on Saturday. Whatever the case, they just didn’t show up with their usual high-tempo game, and the Kings took the initiative. Bruce Boudreau seemed to strike the right tone in describing the effort in his post game comments…

"I just think they were more emotionally into the game than we were at the beginning, and that's the part that's unacceptable. We weren't up to our standards by any stretch of the imagination. And once you let a team get on a roll like that, it's tough to stop them. They were taking away time and space and just working hard. It's that simple. But when you can't get a shot on goal even-strength, that means your team's not working hard enough."

That’s not a blistering attack on his team, but it is a fair statement of what took place. Again, it happens. It just shouldn’t happen again tomorrow night, because if it does…

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Kings, November 20th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE (yawn..) AIR!!!

After a stirring 6-4 win over the Anaheim Ducks, the Caps get right back to it tonight against the 7-8-2 Los Angeles Kings.

The Kings come in rested, not having played since being shut out by Anaheim, 2-0, last Sunday. From the looks of things, the Kings needed it. The loss to Anaheim was their second straight after peeling off four straight wins. Overall this season, the Kings are a club that hasn’t struggled as much as some might have expected, and that is due to contributions from the defense and timely goaltending, as the numbers suggest…

Record: 7-8-2
Standing: 4th in Pacific/T-12th in West
Goals-per-game: 2.41 (27th)
Goals allowed-per-game: 2.59 (T-8th)
5-on-5: 0.79 (T-25th)
Power play: 16.7% (T-17th)
Penalty killing: 86.1% (3rd)
Winning-pct/scoring first: 6-2-0/.750 (T-6th)
Winning-pct/trailing first: 1-6-2/.111 (28th)

What’s noteworthy about those numbers is that for a team predicted to struggle this year, they’ve hung around in games. They’ve scored first in eight of 17 games and have fared well when doing so. But, their record when trailing first is a reflection of an offense that hasn’t done a lot this year. And, they’ve struggled more lately – only once in their last ten games have the Kings scored more than three goals (a 5-3 win against St. Louis on November 8th). By way of comparison, the Caps have scored more than three goals five times in their last ten games.

Individually, the Kings are led in scoring by Anze Kopitar who, for someone playing in one of the world’s great media markets, is a comparative unknown. Perhaps contributing to his anonymity is his lack of goal-scoring. Following a 32-goal season last year, he has only two so far this year. If Kings fans are looking for a ray of hope here, both goals were scored at home.

The goal-scoring chores have so far been the responsibility of Dustin Brown (6-5-11, -2) and Jarret Stoll (6-2-8). Brown is a particularly interesting case and must be considered perhaps the most dangerous offensive weapon the Kings have. In three seasons, he’s gone from 14 to 17 to 33 goals – a handsome progression of improvement. His six so far puts him on a pace for 29.

A big surprise for the Kings is how Drew Doughty – the defenseman selected second overall in last June’s entry draft – has stepped right in and made significant contributions. In addition to his 2-4-6 scoring line, which ties him with Tom Preissing for the team lead among defensemen, he is a team best plus-6 and leads the team in ice time (22:48).

Speaking of defensemen, here is your odd Kings stat…the blueliners have scored, as a group, seven goals. Of that number, three are game winners (two by Kyle Quincey, one by Doughty).

In goal, Erik Ensberg has started seven straight games and performed quite well – 4-2-1, 1.98, .914. His overall goal-against average of 1.96 ranks fourth in the league. Given the hiatus since the last Kings game, one would expect former Caps bench boss Terry Murray to ride the hot goalie for this one.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Los Angeles: Patrick O’Sullivan

The talented forward has not (yet?) blossomed into the sort of forward the Kings might have expected when taking him in the 2003 draft. This year, he started well but has struggled recently. After starting the year 3-3-6, +7 in his first six games, he is 0-1-1, -3 in ten games since. The Kings are a team that struggles on offense, perhaps due in part to the lack of production from O’Sullivan, from whom contributions are expected. Given how the Caps are scoring these days, getting something more than two goals is a requirement for the Kings if they are to compete in this game. And to do that, they need O’Sullivan to get off the schneid.

Washington: Tom Poti

If Mike Green’s shoulder won’t allow him to go, Poti is going to assume more of the burden on offense, both at even strength and on the power play. Poti is already third on the team in ice time (21:27) and second to Green among defensemen. The Caps woke up from a power play funk in last night’s win over Anaheim. If they are to continue that, Poti could be a key ingredient tonight.

Since the Caps are doing so well, we have a sparkle in our eye, and a song in our prognosticatorial heart…so we’ll leave it with a song (with our apologies to Randy Newman)…

Hate New York City
It's cold and it's damp
And all the Rangers looks like donkeys
Let's leave Chicago to the Blackhawks
That team's a little bit too ragged
For you and me you Caps fans

Rollin' down the Imperial Highway
With a big nasty redhead at my side
Santa Ana winds blowin' hot from the north
And we as born to ride

Jump over the boards, skate down the ice
Put on the intro baby
It’s all so very nice
We're gonna ride it till we just can't ride it no more

From our blue line to their goal line
From the end boards to the corners
Everybody's very happy
'Cause the goals are coming all the time
Looks like another perfect day

We’ll beat L.A. (We’ll beat ‘em!)
We’ll beat L.A. (We’ll beat ‘em!!)

Look at that goalie
Look at those D’s
Look at that bum over there, man
We’ll score on him with ease
Look at these Caps
There ain't nothin' like 'em nowhere

Alex Ovechkin (We love him)
Nicklas Backstrom (We love him)
Donald Brashear (We love him)
John-ny (We love him, we love him)

We’ll beat L.A. (We’ll beat ‘em!)
We’ll beat L.A. (We’ll beat ‘em!!...We’ll beat ‘em!!)


Beat ‘em, indeed…

Caps 4 – Kings 2