A TWO-point night: Caps 3 - Predators 2 (OT/Gimmick)

It’s not how, it’s how many.

We’ll remember that for the rest of the weekend, knowing that despite 20 minutes of hell followed by 45 minutes of yawn, followed by a Gimmick, the Caps escaped with the extra point this evening, beating the Nashville Predators in a Bettman Special, 3-2.

Only one player for the Caps managed to find the back of the net tonight. It will hardly surprise anyone that the individual who did so was Alex Ovechkin, notching his eighth and ninth goals of the season, and scoring the only goal in the Gimmick (note to Caps fans… there is no hat trick in a Gimmick; enough with the hats).

It sure looked as if this one would be over early. In the first period, Ovechkin scored two goals, the Caps had one power play goal in two chances, the Predators failed (again) to score. Fans might be forgiven if they were limbering up their tossing arms for the hat trick goal that would surely come in the third period.

But then something happened.

The Caps decided they’d play grind it out hockey. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, and it really wasn’t a bad idea tonight. The Caps outshot the Predators 9-0 before Nashville got its first shot on Semyon Varlamov – at 10:32 into the period. You'd have to like that kind of trend.

But the two-goal lead is the most dangerous lead for a reason. Nashville halved the lead when Shea Weber stepped into a slap shot after Patric Hornqvist dropped him the puck. The biscuit sailed past Varlamov’s left ear and into the back of the net. There might be a goaltender who could have stopped that shot, but who that is doesn’t immediately come to mind.

Then, something happened that shouldn’t have. Nashville got a strange goal less than two minutes later. Jeff Schultz played the puck along the boards where it was picked off by J.P. Dumont. Dumont did his best “Ovechkin,” turning and throwing the puck at the net. It looked as if it might have clipped Brian Pothier on the way through, the puck perhaps altering direction just enough to sneak past Varlamov hugging – not tightly enough as it turned out – the right post.

After that is was a Predator sort of game – deliberate, zone to zone, tote that barge, lift that bale. 24 minutes (the last four of the second period, all 20 of the third) of rather boring hockey, which was very much to Nashville’s liking.

Overtime was a bit more interesting, but only a bit as the Caps registered the only shot on goal in the five minute extra frame. It was amazing that with the teams skating only four a side that the puck could still be blocked and pinballed about without ever reaching a goaltender. Again, that suited Nashville just fine, but truth be told, unless Weber was going to step into another one, the Predators might not have scored again until Thanksgiving.

So that left The Gimmick, and Alex Ovechkin, whose performance in games and The Gimmick is like the difference between the Mona Lisa and a portrait of Elvis on velvet, potted the only goal on an hellaciously sick move on Dan Ellis, who but for having stretched before the game might have found his groin somewhere in Adams Morgan after trying vainly to cover enough of the net to stop the shot.

It was two points, which is better than one, which is better than none. And if you’re keeping track of such things, the Caps are (after eight games) on a pace for 103 points. Complain if you like, but we’ll take 103 points, and we don’t care how they get them as far as style points go.

Other stuff…

- Wade Belak took a penalty at 3:08 of the first period. That isn’t noteworthy. This is – before the game reached four minutes, the Predators had two breakaways on Varlamov while killing the penalty. Coming within 15 seconds of one another, Varlamov first had to stick out his left pad to stop an attempt by Joel Ward, then had to stand his ground to knock down a wrister by Weber. For that alone, we’d have given Varlamov at least the second star. If Nashville scores there (what would have been only their second first period goal of the year), this is probably a different game.

- Ovechkin is on a pace for 92 goals. No, we don’t think he’ll score 92 goals. But we’re betting the odds of him doing it are a little bit shorter tonight than they might have been yesterday.

- David Steckel earned the hard hat tonight, and “earned” is precisely the verb of choice there. He was a man among boys (or at least younger men) with his work along the boards and in the circle (he won 14 of 25 draws). He was a monster on the penalty kill, using his stick oand body to good use in the 4:38 of shorthanded time he logged.

- Speaking of shorthanded time, there was Quintin Laing getting 5:08 for himself (more than 17 minutes total).

- All in all, the Caps looked to make very good use of their sticks in cutting off passing lanes, especially when Nashville tried to use the middle of the ice as a go-through zone.

- Francis Bouillon is going to need a few extra minutes in the whirlpool tonight… seven blocked shots, three of them shots by Alexander Semin.

- Eric Fehr and Keith Aucoin had one shift each in the third period; Chris Clark had two. The Caps went with three lines for pretty much the entire third period and overtime. Not a bad idea since the Caps don’t play again until next Thursday.

- We don’t say much about the referees in this space, but just what game was Chris Rooney looking at? The hooking call on Nicklas Backstrom in the third period didn’t look like a hook in real time, and it sure as hell didn’t look like any more of a hook in slow motion on the replay. Please, NHL… you can’t find a referee better than this guy somewhere? Anywhere?

- In the last two years combined in Philadelphia, Mike Knuble totaled 46 assists. He is on a pace for 51 this year.

- The Caps were 11 of 27 on draws in the offensive zone.

- Speaking of draws, you think it doesn’t matter who takes them? The Caps had 14 defensive zone draws. David Steckel took 11 of them and won seven.

- Nashville is an offense-starved team. How do we know this? Shea Weber led the Predators in shot attempts (eight) and tied for the lead in shots on goal (three). It’s a little like watching the Caps in the day Kevin Hatcher was leading the team in goals.

- Speaking of goals. Goals on the season… Nashville: 9 – Alex Ovechkin: 9

- Varlamov is now 7-0-1 in the regular season, career. This was the first time he participated in The Gimmick.

- Milan Jurcina is quietly putting together a string of solid games on the blue line. Tonight – four blocked shots to lead all players for the Caps. His three hits led the club, too.

- Oh, and we really liked that bit where Brendan Morrison just threw the puck into space, had it bounce off the boards, and skitter to the middle of the ice where Ovechkin could get it and break in on Dan Ellis with Teemo Laakso waving his stick at Ovechkin in pursuit while Ovechkin potted the goal. Just like you drew it up, right guys?... right?

Hey, folks… it was a win. Was it pretty? No. Were there any highlights that weren’t fluky goals? No. Will anyone remember this in March? No.

Because it’s not how, it’s how many.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Predators, October 17th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

If it’s Saturday, it must be hockey. And that’s what we have this evening at Verizon Center as the Capitals host the Nashville Predators, owners of a 2-4-0 record thus far, good for 14th in the Western Conference, and…

“You’re one… ugly… motha-f*cka”

Dutch?

“What's the matter? The CIA got you pushing too many pencils? Huh? Had enough?”

I don’t work for the CIA, Dutch. You’ve been out hunting too many predators, I think…Speaking of which, the Caps play the Predators tonight. Any advice on how to beat them?

“If it bleeds, you can kill it.”

The Preds come into this one having lost four in a row. What do you think the players’ attitude is on the ice right now?

“So you cooked up a schedule like this and dropped the six of us in a meatgrinder?”

They’ve given up six goals in two of their last three games. A team with a reputation for strong defense seems to have gotten off to a rocky start. What can they do to tighten this up? Is it their positioning?

“We move, five meter spread, no sound.”

Maybe the Predators should bring you and your boys in to help get things back on track.

“My team works alone, you know that.”

Any advice for fans tonight?

“Yeah… stick around.”

Dutch is right… stick around. This should be an entertaining game. The Caps are 7-5-1 against Nashville since the Predators came into the league in the 1998-1999 season. And the key seems to be this number: “3.” If the Caps hold the Predators to less than that number of goals, they win – 5-0-0 in such games. If the Preds score three or more? The Caps are 2-5-1, and one of those wins came in a Gimmick.

You might note that Jose Theodore – “Three-or-More” to his detractors -- is not likely to play tonight, as he is nursing back spasms. Semyon Varlamov and Braden Holtby will be the netminders dressing for the Caps. We’ll have a bit more to say about that in a bit.

As for the Predators, they do not come about their record by accident. They have struggled in the early going, no more so than on offense, where they have yet to score more than two goals in any game yet played. Although the defense has had those two six-goal games posted to their record, they have allowed more than two goals in only one other game (their last one, a 3-1 loss to Chicago). Here is the tale o' the tape...


One of the problems on offense for Nashville is that they get off to such poor starts. They have one first period goal scored so far, and that was in the first period of the season, 1:48 into the first period of a 3-2- Gimmick win over Dallas. They have gone 118:12 of first period play since without finding the back of the net. Caps fans might watch to see if this trend continues.

The matching part to this set is that the Predators don’t finish well, either. They have a total of two third period goals in six games, both of those scored in the second game of the year, a 3-2 win against Colorado. They’ve gone 85:12 of third period play without having turned the red light on.

It’s early in the season to say that a team is showing cracks under the pressure to score goals, but Nashville has allowed 15 goals in their last three games (they’ve scored two). Eight of them have come in the first period (four each against Edmonton and Dallas).

It is not as if either goalie has shined above the other for the Predators. Dan Ellis has both wins (2-1-0), but has a 3.15 goals against average and a .885 save percentage. Pekka Rinne has the other three losses for Nashville and a 3.46 GAA and .894 save percentage to go along with them.

It doesn’t get better for the Predators moving out from their net in this respect -- six-year vet Dan Hamhuis, who is third on the blue line in ice time, will not play tonight after suffering an injury in the Chicago game on Thursday. Cody Franson has been recalled from Milwaukee in the AHL to take Hamhuis’ place on the roster. If Franson plays, it will be his NHL debut.

The early sheet paints a dim picture among the individual Predators as far as offensive production goes. Only three forwards have more than one point so far (Jason Arnott: 3-2-5; Patric Hornqvist: 2-3-5; and Steve Sullivan: 1-1-2). Only eight Predators have points at all among 22 skaters who have dressed. Only four have goals (Arnott, Hornqvist, Sullivan, and Martin Erat).

This is a team with talent, though, and taking it lightly can – and will – bite a team in the backside. Arnott has ten consecutive 20-plus goal scoring seasons, including 33 last year. Ryan Suter is a talented defenseman who 29 other teams would love to pry away from Nashville. Shea Weber, ditto, and then some. Steve Sullivan missed 58 games of the 2003-2004 season, but since then has had a 30-plus goal season and at least 60 points in two of the last three years (he missed 41 games in 2008-2009, yet still had 32 points). Martin Erat has been a 50-point player in the last three seasons. J.P. Dumont has had at least 65 points in the last three seasons.

There is talent here that the Caps would be advised not to allow to wake up from their early autumn slumber.

And that brings us to the goaltenders for the home team. The soft underbelly of the Caps is exposed here, which is not generally what you’d want to expose to a club that has a buck-toothed sabre-tooth tiger as a logo. Semyon Varlamov and Braden Holtby are goaltenders of considerable promise. Varlamov has yet to lose a regular season game in regulation in the NHL; Holtby has allowed a total of three goals in his first three games as a professional, at Hershey. That doesn’t make either a solid, battle tested goalie at this level. Leaving aside the issues that follow veteran Jose Theodore, it is the problem the Caps have in terms of mismatched development arcs that could haunt them this season. The forwards for the Caps are as good as any team in the league with NHL aspirations. The defense, while lacking a true number one stopper, is probably good enough for a deep playoff run, if not a Stanley Cup championship. The goalies? Well, Varlamov and Holtby will come into this game with a total of 52 games as professionals – NHL and AHL – and Varlamov has 49 of those (including 13 playoff games). Combined, the two have nine games of NHL regular season experience, all by Varlamov.

But the issue at hand is tonight, and it won’t take a rocket scientist to figure out what to look for. If the Caps can keep the Predators off the score sheet early – the Preds have scored one first period goal, the Caps have allowed only two – this could be an early evening. If the Predators get a spark in the first, it could be a bad sign.

Even though on paper, this is the game Varlamov was almost certainly going to get to start in anyway, it is something of a dangerous game for him and the Caps. But the Caps showed on Thursday that they are capable of the simple meat-and-potatoes kind of effort that can strangle the life out of a team. And, they have the skill to get their opponents running around and drawing penalties (five minors in the first period by the Sharks on Thursday). That sounds like a plan, right Dutch?

“You fall behind, and you're on your own.”

Won’t happen, Dutch… won’t happen.

Caps 5 – Predators 1

Four

Four Division winners played...

Average record of opposition (2008-2009): 52-21-9, 113 points

Record against: 2-1-1

Goals for/Goals against: 12-7

Scoring:

Alex Ovechkin: 4 gms, 4-4-8, +6
Mike Knuble: 4 gms, 1-3-4, +5
Nicklas Backstrom: 4 gms, 0-4-4, +2
Brooks Laich: 4 gms, 2-1-3, -3
Brendan Morrison: 4 gms, 1-2-3, +1
Alexander Semin: 4 gms, 1-2-3, -1

Goaltending:

Jose Theodore: 1-1-1, 2.08, .929
Semyon Varlamov: 1-0-0, 0.00, 1.000

Not bad... not bad at all.

A TWO-point night: Caps 4 - Sharks 1

Ah, now that’s better.

The beer tastes better, the air smells fresher, and the night lights seem brighter walking out of the Verizon Center after a game like that which the Capitals played tonight. The home side stapled the San Jose Sharks to the sides of the rink in posting a 4-1 win that really wasn’t as close as the score indicated. It didn’t some without a price, though, as Jose Theodore left the contest at the first intermission after gutting out the latter part of the first period while suffering back spasms. How long he will be out is not known.

That merely presented an opportunity for Semyon Varlamov, last seen looking like a screen door on the back porch swinging open against Philadelphia. Not tonight. Varlamov was calm and steady in net, and the boys in front of him played with a determination bred of seeing a series of third period leads blown during the four-game losing streak that they brought into this game. Varlamov stopped all 15 shots he faced in earning the win.

In fact, it was probably an early save in the second period – a glove save, one should note – off a shot by Patrick Marleau off a nice feed from Joe Thornton that set the Caps off and running. Barely a minute later, Alex Ovechkin scored the first of two goals he would have in 28 seconds to give the Caps the lead they would not relinquish.

Ovechkin completed the book on “NHL Teams I Have Scored Goals Against” by notching two against the team he had yet to solve. If he was a slot machine, he’d be paying jackpot – sevens across… seven games played, seven goals, seven assists. Ovechkin has opened up an early three-point lead on the field in the scoring race with his 14 points. It is no surprise that he also leads the league in goals scored, but it is a surprise that he is tied for third in assists.

Nicklas Backstrom, who recorded an assist, leads the league in that category and is tied for second in scoring behind Ovechkin. He did have a rather brutal night in the circle, though, winning only five of 17 draws. He lost all five draws he took in the offensive zone, which might explain a little bit why he and his new linemates – Alexander Semin and Brooks Laich -- could not get much traction in the offensive zone.

Semin did, however, score a nice goal on a 5-on-3 power play, taking one of those “wait…wait…wait for it” feeds from through the crease by Nicklas Backstrom, snapping the puck past goalie Evgeni Nabokov while falling down. But watching that play unfold, one notices the rather determined Brooks Laich fighting for position with Rob Blake at the top of Nabokov’s crease. A distraction that helped in the result? Very possibly.

While Backstrom was breaking in a new line, so was Brendan Morrison, who skated with Alex Ovechkin and Mike Knuble. Knuble is one of those guys you really have to watch for a awhile to appreciate his role as a solid support player. He earned the primary assist on both Ovechkin goals, and both assists were the product of simple, smart plays. On the first, Ovechkin lost the puck at the San Jose line to defenseman Kent Huskins, who tried to swat the puck back out of the zone. He flubbed the attempt, and the puck ended up on the stick of Knuble. As Ovechkin continued driving to the net, Knuble went wide down the left side, drawing the defense to him. He threaded a pass through to Ovechkin, who redirected it through Nabokov, and it was 2-1.

On the next shift, it was Knuble taking a pass from Brendan Morrison at the Sharks’ line and skating down the right side. He fired a shot at Nabokov, but it looked like a shot with a purpose, that being one where if Nabokov would make the save, any rebound would be left to Ovechkin’s side of the ice going down the far wing. That is just what happened as the puck rebounded onto Ovechkin’s stick, and all that needed to be done was to stuff the puck in what was now an empty net.

Matt Bradley closed the scoring in the third period by sending one in from the “Bradley Corner” off a rebound from a long shot by Milan Jurcina. After that, the Caps played suffocating defense, holding the Sharks to four shots on goal (only one inside of 24 feet) in the last 14:49 on the game.

Other stuff…

- Speaking of defense, the top line of Dany Heatley-Joe Thornton-Devin Setoguchi was held to five shots on goal, none by Thornton, and none of the five after the first period. Moreover, they only had a total of nine shot attempts. Alexander Semin (10) and Alex Ovechkin (17) each had more attempts.

- Ovechkin’s 13 shots on goal is not a personal best. He had 15 against Carolina on October 7, 2006.

- The score sheet will record that the Caps were successful on one of five power plays (all of the opportunities coming in the first period). It wasn’t for lack of effort. Frankly, it was the best the power play looked all year. There was good puck movement, guys were moving their feet, and it seemed that the Caps were just this close to potting a couple more. Eight power play shots doesn’t tell the story of a lot of pucks that were pinballing around, making Nabokov move like a man not knowing which of a dozen itches to scratch first.

- Seven goals (oops...six; the other one was a Gimmick) against in the last three games, all of them against division winners from last year (New Jersey, Detroit, San Jose). Nothing wrong with that.

- David Steckel won 12 of 16 draws. That’s not unusual. But it looked to us like he was trying to get more involved offensively.

- For a guy coming back from surgery on both shoulders, and who was supposed to be rehabbing in Hershey, Eric Fehr snapped off one laser of a wrist shot that Nabokov barely saw in time to get a pad on. And it seems even when Fehr isn’t scoring, he is very diligent in forechecking. He was making it very difficult on Shark skaters with his reach along the boards.

- Mike Green looks a lot more comfortable in the offensive end now that he has his first goal. He was looking for his shot tonight.

- Yes, the Caps have some of the top scorers in the league – Ovechkin is first, Backstrom is tied for second, Semin is tied for fourth. But Semin is first, Backstrom is tied for fifth, and Knuble, Morrison, and Steckel are tied for ninth… in takeaways.

- The Caps had 56 seconds of 5-on-3 play tonight and had only one shot on goal – it went in. There’s a moral in there somewhere.

This was as solid an suffocating a win as Caps fans could have hoped for. San Jose was never really in this game, their only goal coming after Theodore had apparently contracted back spasms. They mounted almost no offense in the third period, and the Caps did a fine job all night of denying the Sharks the opportunity to string passes together into scoring opportunities. They scored, they got a lead, and then they played smart. The played solid defense, they didn’t play “defensively.” It was like watching the New York Giants use ball control and time of possession to grind out a win that might only look like 24-3, but it was one in which the outcome was never in doubt. It was just a solid meat-and-potatoes kind of win.

We’d be just as happy with, oh, 45 or so more of them. The kinds of wins that would make an Ugly Goal Rally Mutt proud. Right, Kanoobie?

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Sharks, October 15th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Capitals early tour of division champions of last season comes to an end tonight as the San Jose Sharks – the fourth division winner the Caps will face in their first seven games (the Caps are 1-1-1 thus far against the division champs) -- visit Verizon Center. And this might be the most severe test of the lot. The Sharks finished last season with 53 wins and 117 points to capture the President’s Trophy. Then they went gills up in the playoffs…

“Hey, watch what you say about da Sharks…”

Uh… Don Lino?

“Dat’s right… and we don’t tink da Shark jokes are very humorous, so if you don’t wanna know what’s what, if you catch my drift…”

I beg your pardon… so, what’s up?

“What’s up wit what?”

You know… what’s up… like…

“I tell you what's what, and what?”

What?

“What what?”

What what nothing. You said what first.

“I didn't say what first.”

You said 'and then what?' and I said 'what?'

“No, I said ‘What’s what?’ as in "What’s, what?"

...You said what first.

“Whatever... “

So, Don Lino… what’s up with the Sharks?

“Again wit da ‘what’…whaddya wanna know?”

It looks like a different team this year, Don Lino – lots of changes.

“Yeah, you could say dat, but when you lose when you’re supposed ta win, tings… well, tings change.”

I see… sensitive family subject. But what about their defense? Do they have what it takes to shout down Alex Ovechkin and the Caps offense?

“Dis ‘Ovechkin,’ I keep hearin’ his name. Who is dis fancy pants? I wanna know all about dis guy. I wanna know what he does. I wanna know where he eats. I wanna know where he sleeps. He pops a gill, I wanna know about it. I want you to find this nancy-boy Ovechkin, I want him DEAD! I want his family DEAD! I want his house burned to the GROUND! I wanna go there in the middle of the night and I wanna PISS ON HIS ASHES!”

Uh, Don... I think you're mixing up the movies you were in there...

“Don't be a wise guy if you don't wanna be sleepin' with the fishes. The dead ones. Now nod your head if you understand… “

-- gulp –

We’re just going to let Don Lino settle down while we take a look at the Sharks. And “change” is a word that does seem to describe this team, despite the fact that they stood atop the league standings last year. Compare the lineup they used in the last game of the playoffs they played last season (a 4-1 loss to Anaheim) to that which skated against the Phoenix Coyotes on Monday:


Part of it is injuries – Joe Pavelski has a foot injury, Torrey Mitchell has had tendinitis in his knee. Neither are expected back before later this month. And Jody Shelley (healthy) and Kent Huskins (injury) were scratches in that last game last year. But that still leaves a fair number of new names on the backs of Shark jerseys. And that might account, in part, for a bit of a stumble out of the gate for the Sharks, who are 3-2-1 (1-2-0 on the road).

Clearly, the biggest of the new names is Dany Heatley, now working on his third team in his eighth season. The question is, can Heatley replace the production of Milan Michalek and Jonathan Cheechoo, the players for whom he was obtained from Ottawa. Well, last year, Michalek and Cheechoo finished a combined 35-51-86, plus-8 (and Cheechoo had been in serious decline as a goal scorer since his 56-goal season in 2005-2006). Last year, Heatley finished 39-33-72, -11 as a disgruntled star on a fading Ottawa Senators team. It was his worst set of numbers for a full season since his rookie year with Atlanta. If he achieves his average per-82-game career numbers of 42-46-88, plus-8, he would more than make up for the loss of those two players.

But statistics have never been Heatley’s problem. He is gifted, productive talent. He’s had two 50-goal seasons, two 100-point seasons, he’s been a power-play force (averaging 16 power play goals per 82 games in his career). What he hasn’t been is much of a winner. His high-water mark in that regard was the 2006-2007 season, when the Senators went to the Stanley Cup final. There is a certain “A-Rod” quality to his career so far (although in fairness, Heatley has been a point-a-game performer in the playoffs, not quite "A-Rodish") – big numbers in the regular season, empty in the post season.

It isn’t clear that Heatley will be helped by the move to San Jose either, as the Sharks have another player who has put up big numbers in the regular season with little post season glory to show for it. Joe Thornton has put up big numbers of his own longer than has Heatley (26-57-93, plus 11 on a per-82 games basis over a 12-year career). He has never escaped the second round of the playoffs, his teams losing there on four occasions.

On paper, these two are made for each other – no, really. Heatley is a top-notch goal scorer, and Thornton is one of the best, if not the best assist man of his era. In six games so far, they have combined for six goals and 14 assists. It is not far-fetched to imagine both topping 100 points, with Heatley netting 50-plus goals and Thornton perhaps topping 75 assists.

But is that going to be enough to get the Sharks over the second round hump (they’ve advanced to the third round only once in 17 seasons), let alone to a Stanley Cup? Much might depend on the undercard – players such as Patrick Marleau and Devin Setoguchi. Marleau has spent his entire NHL career with the Sharks – 11 seasons worth coming into this year – so one might be forgiven for wondering if he’s part of the problem the Sharks have had in the post season. Unlike Heatley, who has been a point-a-game producer in the playoffs, Marleau has only once had that level of production in ten playoff appearances. He was stripped of his captaincy in August in favor of Rob Blake.

And Blake is another one. A veteran of more than 1,200 games, Blake has played on one Stanley Cup champion – the 2001 Colorado Avalanche, a team he joined late in the regular season that year. He played on some brutal teams in Los Angeles for years, but he’s played on some very good ones in Colorado and with the Sharks last year. There isn’t a lot of post-season success in his resume.

Coming back to Setoguchi, he had a coming-out party last year, improving his goals from the previous season from 11 to 31, his assists from 6 to 34, and his points from 17 to 65. He’s off and running this year, too, with four goals in six games. But after seeing what happened to Jonathan Cheechoo, who went from 56 goals to 37 to 23 to 12 last year with the Sharks, one might give pause before pronouncing Setoguchi the next big thing in San Jose.

It hardly seems as though Evgeni Nabokov has been in the NHL long enough to be 34 years old and in his tenth season. That’s what playing on the west coast does, we guess. Not enough attention is paid. But there is another side to that, too. Nabokov was 31-19-8 in 2003-2004, with a 2.20 goals against average, a .920 save percentage, and nine shutouts. Since then, he has been very good, twice winning more than 40 games (including 41 last year). But statistically, one gets the feeling that Nabokov is getting by as much on the basis of reputation as performance. He is 131-69-28 since that 2003-2004 season (including 3-1-1 this year), but his 2.44 GAA and .906 save percentage since then would not appear to be that of an “elite” goaltender. His playoff numbers are, as the player who has to take the wins and losses to his record, not particularly inspiring – 14-16 since that 2003-2004 season, 2.33, .908. Good, not great.

What Nabokov doesn’t do is lose to the Caps. Since the 2000-2001 season, he is 8-0-0 against the Caps with a 2.00 goals against average and a .935 save percentage. And, he’s coming off a 30-save shutout against Phoenix last Monday.

San Jose is a formidable team on paper and on the ice from October to April. They haven’t been anything but a disappointment in the post-season, despite their gaudy regular season success in recent years. This being October, the Sharks will present a formidable challenge for the Caps, one that the Caps failed to meet last year when the teams met in San Jose, and the Sharks pasted the Caps, 7-2.

Time to return the hospitality…

Caps 4 – Sharks 2

First Months First

Gary Bettman will present the Stanley Cup to the captain of the championship team sometime in early June. NHL teams have about 75 regular season games, and one will have 16 wins to achieve before that moment presents itself. Clearly, you can’t win the Cup in October.

But you can lose it.

A bad start in October is a reasonably good predictor to provide an answer to the question, “Can you win the Stanley Cup this year?” Not “will you,” can you?

And history provides rather compelling evidence that you “can” win the Cup only if you get off to a good start early. We looked back at the last 30 Stanley Cup winners to see how they performed in October of their Cup-winning season. And in only two of those 30 cases did the eventual Cup-winner have a sub-.500 record in the first month of play. One of those was the 1995 New Jersey Devils in a season that started late due to a labor-management impasse. Here are the results…



What is particularly striking about this is the recent history. Starting with the 1998 Detroit Red Wings, Cup winners have won, on average, more than 75 percent of the available standings points in October. Only one team – last year’s Pittsburgh Penguins – lost more than three games in regulation in October.

There isn’t a lot of depth to these numbers. It is simply wins and losses, which in the end are the only statistical measures that matter. And the unvarnished truth is, you had better get off to a good start if you have realistic designs on winning a Stanley Cup. You don’t have to be guns a-blazin’ out of the gate – the 2006-2007 Buffalo Sabres won their first ten games in route to a 10-0-1 October, yet lost in the conference finals in the following spring. But you can’t be a sub-.500 team except in the rarest of circumstances.

Another curiosity about the numbers, especially with respect to the last decade. In the last eight seasons, every Stanley Cup winning team has found a way to win at least one game in extra time in October. Five of the teams did it more than once, and Pittsburgh (2008-2009) and Detroit (2001-2002) did it three times.

With respect to the Capitals, they stand at .500, and they are 0-2 in extra time games thus far. The history of October is telling them, “do better.”

The little girl with the curl...

There is a nursery rhyme that goes...

There was a little girl,

Who had a little curl,

Right in the middle of her forehead.

When she was good,

She was very, very good,

But when she was bad, she was horrid.

Well, much as we're loathe to compare hockey players to little girls, the rhyme -- at least the "very, very good" part -- seems to fit the Phoenix Coyotes in the early going. Yes, they are 3-2-0, and while that is better than a lot of folks might have expected, it isn't earth-shattering.

But consider Ilya Bryzgalov. He's been in four of those games, and after having allowed three goals in his season debut, has allowed only one in his last three, including shutouts against -- we are not kidding -- Pittsburgh and San Jose, your defending Stanley Cup and President's Cup winners, respectively. He has stopped 73 of the last 74 shots he has faced.

With a 3-1-0, 0.98, .960 record, to go along with those two shutouts, Bryzgalov has staked an early claim to be the October player of the month.

A ONE-point night: Devils 3 - Caps 2 (OT/Gimmick)

Humor us for a moment. If you didn’t know the results of the last three games for the Capitals, and you were in attendance at tonight’s game against the New Jersey Devils, would you fault the Caps for their effort? Would you think they didn’t show up for this one, a 3-2 Gimmick loss to the Devils?

Of course, Caps fans know the results of the three games preceding tonight’s, and heaven knows they remember every discrete detail of every loss, finding fault with everything from defensive coverages to the way players lace their skates.

But we’re not going to find much fault in the Caps’ effort tonight. Last time we looked, New Jersey was a pretty good team. And they have a hall-of-fame-in-waiting goaltender. Unfortunately for the Caps, they could manage to get out to the most dangerous lead in hockey – a 2-0 advantage – but couldn’t find their way to sending the puck past Martin Brodeur one more time to drive a stake into the Devils.

And if you’re going to put a game in the hands of the goaltenders, well… New Jersey still wins more than they lose in those battles. And such was the case tonight. Mike Green celebrated his 24th birthday by scoring his first goal of the season (did you spit on the sticks, Mike?), and Mike Knuble took a cross-ice feed from Alex Ovechkin on the fly and rammed it through Brodeur for a 2-0 lead.

And that was it.

After scoring on their second and fifth shots against Brodeur, the Devils’ netminder stopped the last 28 shots in regulation and overtime, many of those saves of the nine, if not ten-bell variety.

The story for the Caps was the power play. They had five chances, including a 53-second five-on-three advantage; they had 15 power play shots on goal – fifteen! – from seven different players. And none got through.

It was really too much Brodeur. And this isn’t the usual “The Caps make every goalie they play look like Georges Vezina” sort of thing, either. Brodeur has made a good part of his living winning games against the Caps (this makes 34 of his 561 career wins). When the game was put in his hands – keeping the Caps from doing any more damage on the scoreboard until the Devils could chip away – it became the Devils’ sort of game.

And the game really turned on two sequences, one a recurring theme, the other a matter of will. The first – part of recurring theme – occurred midway through the second period. Mike Green sent the puck ahead to Brendan Morrison, and with three Devils collapsing on Morrison, the Caps’ center sent the puck to Brooks Laich who fired at Brodeur. Colin White managed to get over to block the shot, but the momentum of both Morrison and Laich took them behind the Devils’ cage. The Devils quickly exited the zone, and with Morrisonn and Laich well behind the play, the Devils had a 3-on-2 entering the Caps’ zone. Rob Niedermayer carried the puck down the left side and sent it across to Brian Rolston, who snapped it into the back of the net to halve the deficit.

The second occurred well into the third period when the Caps were unable to clear the puck from their zone against the checking line of Niklas Bergfors, David Clarkson, and Dainius Zubrus. The Devils managed to hold the puck in the Caps’ zone for more than a minute, finally scoring when Bergfors slid a pass to Clarkson in front of the net, where he had snuck between Brian Pothier and Shaone Morrison. Neither Caps defenseman could get stick or body on Clarkson in time before Clarkson netted the tying goal.

The rest is details. The Caps took a penalty in overtime, which negated any advantage they might have enjoyed with the teams 4-on-4 and more open ice. When it got to the shootout, well… Brodeur came into the Gimmick with a career record of 13-6. Jose Theodore came into the game with a 4-4 career Gimmick record and had not won any of his three decisions as a Capital. Who would you have put your money on?

Other stuff…

- OK, Brodeur was 13-6 in Gimmicks, but why did Alexander Semin make it easier on Brodeur by launching a slap shot, of all things? Semin has a deadly wrist shot, and he is an adept stickhandler. The slap shot seems like the number-three option here.

- John Erskine took one shift after the first period; he was reported to be injured blocking a shot, although he was not credited with any blocked shots.

- Brodeur got a star, but he didn’t have a better sequence than the one Jose Theodore had in overtime during a Devils power play. In fact, give credit to the whole team. While skating three-on-four, Theodore turned away two shots, including a point-blank attempt by Zach Parise; the Caps blocked three shot attempts (Tom Poti, Quintin Laing, and Brooks Laich); and Parise missed the net twice in a space of 11 seconds.

- There was a caller in the post-game radio show who observed that Alex Ovechkin passed too much. Hmm… 12 shot attempts in 24 shifts (seven on goal, including four on the power play). You be the judge.

- Exit Semin, enter Knuble. 22 had a goal and an assist on the 8-19 line.

- Game six, and Matt Bradley is still the only forward not in the top six who has a goal.

- Hey, it could be worse, you could be Miikka Kiprusoff tonight.

- We made a point in the pregame about how smart the Devils defensemen play with the puck. As a group, they had a total of five giveaways on the evening, no defenseman having more than one. The Caps didn’t do badly in that regard – their defensemen had a total of eight.

- But the Devils’ defensemen had 13 blocked shots. Caps defensemen – four.

- Boyd Gordon tied for the team lead in hits (four). He also took a penalty in the last half of the third period for the third time this season.

- David Clarkson – 41 fights in two NHL seasons – dropped mitts with Chris Clark – 32 fights in ten NHL seasons. It was a draw. Good on the captain.

OK, the Caps are struggling. 2-2-2 is not how the script was supposed to play. But Boston is 2-3-0, as is Carolina. Ray Emery has allowed 12 goals in his last three games for the Flyers. Pittsburgh was shutout by Phoenix – at home. And if you think the Rangers are going to finish on top of the East (where they currently sit), or that Tampa Bay will finish with 98 points (their current pace), I’d like to meet your pharmacist.

When the bell tolls midnight on Thursday, the Caps will have played four of last year’s division winners in their first seven games. At the moment, they could end up 2-1-1 against that quartet. That would not be bad. 1-2-1 would not be a catastrophe. Although the Caps have stumbled out of the gate, and winning in October seems to be a prerequisite for playoff success in the spring, the schedule does lighten up a bit after Thursday.

One need not be happy with a 2-2-2 record, but one need not start a suicide watch, either.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Devils, October 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s crisis time in Capitals nation. The Caps have lost three in a row, an unheard of turn of events (psst… they lost four in a row last March).

OK, well, they had to have lost to really, really good teams (uh, no… they lost to Florida, 6-2, and they lost to Toronto, 2-1, in that streak).

Well, it had to be part of an off year (nope… they won 50 games and set a club record for standings points).

Well, really good teams don’t have those kinds of streaks (oh?... the Penguins twice had losing streaks of at least three games last year – including a five-game streak – and they won the Cup).

But if you want to be a “dynasty,” like the Red Wings, you can’t have that (hmm… then explain the five-game losing streak the Red Wings had last year, or two three game losing streaks they had in the last two weeks of the regular season last year, or the four losing streaks of at least three games in 2007-2008 – including a six-game losing streak – when they won the Cup).

But the Caps’ goaltending stinks (do you even read your own writing?).

Well, the coaching leaves something to be desired (what, exactly?... Bruce Boudreau is 89-43-16 in the regular season).

Well, George McPhee should be fired (uh-huh… what, for taking Nicklas Backstrom instead of Phil Kessel? For signing Mike Knuble and Brendan Morrison? For drafting Semyon Varlamov and Michal Neuvirth?).

Well, Slapshot’s new look is ugly (no argument here…).

Huh..wha… was I sleeping? I was dreaming about a devil on one shoulder and an angel on the other. And a big ugly bird in a hockey jersey… But anyway, tonight the New Jersey Devils visit the Caps as the Caps try to get off their three-game schneid. You would think that the Devils are not a good opponent against which to do that sort of thing. However, the Caps haven’t lost in regulation to the Devils at home since February 25, 2007, when the Caps dropped a 3-2 decision.

And, the Devils have had something of a dicey start of their own. New Jersey is 2-2-0, and oddly enough, the Devils are winless at home (losses to the Flyers and Rangers) and undefeated on the road (wins over Tampa Bay and Florida). But it is a different Devils team, to an extent.

If you compare the roster that skated for the Devils in the last game of the 2008-2009 season – a 4-3 loss to Carolina to close out the Eastern Conference quarterfinal – to the first game of this season, there were six newcomers among the skaters on the Devils’ roster on this year’s opening night:

Niklas Bergfors (who played in eight games with New Jersey last year)
Matt Halischuk (one game with New Jersey last season)
Cory Murphy (split time with Florida and Tampa Bay last year)
Rob Niedermayer (Anaheim)
Rod Pelley (with Lowell in the AHL last year)
Andrew Peters (Buffalo)

As a group, they are 2-2-4 (Niedermayer is 2-1-3), minus-7. You could say that the Devils can’t wait to get Patrik Elias back. Elias had arthroscopic groin surgery on September 15th and is due back with the club by late October. In the meantime, the Devils will have to depend on Travis Zajac, Zach Parise, and David Clarkson for their offense.

“David Clarkson,” you ask?

OK, Clarkson has more of a reputation as a brawler with 20 fights last season (seventh in the league) and 21 the year before (fifth), but he is tied for second with Parise in scoring for the Devils (1-3-4) and has points in each of his last three games, including the game-winning goal against Florida in the Devils’ last outing. And in fact, Clarkson is not merely a brawler. Last year he was 17-15-32 (including three game-winning goals) in playing all 82 games. You underestimate him at your own risk.

One does expect, however, scoring punch out of Zach Parise. The stunt double for Jonathan Taylor Thomas on “Home Improvement” has seen his goal scoring and point totals march forward in each of his four NHL seaons – 14, 31, 32, and 45 goals; 32, 62, 65, and 94 points. And, he’s been durable. In those four seasons he’s missed a total of two games. In 16 career games against the Caps, Parise is 4-8-12, even.

Caps fans might be forgiven if they think of the 2004 entry draft as the draft of Alex Ovechkin, but Travis Zajac was one of four centers taken in the first round of that draft. None have played in more NHL games, not even Evgeni Malkin. You could say that it was a weak class for centers once you got past Malkin, but Zajac has quietly become an offensive cornerstone for the Devils. In three full NHL seasons he’s improved is goals scored from 17 to 20 and his total points from 42 to 62. He’s also been durable, missing only a total of two games in three NHL seasons. Against the Caps, he is 3-5-8, plus-6 in 12 career games.

On defense, the Devils have no one who will put up flashy numbers. No defenseman among the seven who have dressed has a goal this season, and this group has averaged – on an 82-game basis – 4-16-20 for their careers. It isn’t a big hitting group, as these things go, either. Colin White led the team in hits last year with 126, but that was only good for 37th among defensemen in the league. Bryce Salvador was the only other Devils defenseman with more than 100 hits.

OK, they don’t score, they don’t hit. What do they do? Well, they play smart. Paul Martin had the most giveaways among Devils defensemen last year with 43. That was tied for 66th among defensemen. Another way of looking at it – the Devils’ top two defensemen in giveaways (Paul Martin and Mike Mottau) combined for 83 giveaways. Mike Green had 95 for the Caps.

If the Devils don’t play loose with the puck, it makes it that much harder to get quality chances against goaltender Martin Brodeur. Until last season, Brodeur was the league’s iron man in goal. From the 1995-1996 season through 2008-2009, Brodeur topped 4,000 minutes played in 11 of 12 seasons. He had more decisions in overtime in that period than his backups had total appearances.

Then he had his first major injury, a torn biceps tendon in his catching arm. He missed 16 weeks, but upon his return he posted two shutouts in his first three games back. You’d think he hadn’t missed a beat. Well, not so fast. Since that second shutout – a 3-0 blanking of the Flyers on March 1st – Brodeur seems a bit more mortal. Including playoffs, he is 13-11-1, 2.79, .912 since March 1st. Is he enough of a mortal for the Caps to take a bite out of his 33-12-4, 2.08 GAA career record against them?

The Caps, contrary to what you might see in other spaces, are a good team – a very good one, in fact… when they want to be. The days of tolerating the odd week of inconsistent effort and iffy results is over, that is… if this team really wants to be a Stanley Cup contender. Teams have slumps, it happens. But the really elite teams do not have the sort of self-inflicted slumps that come with “ok” -- or worse -- play. Against the Bruins and Red Wings the Caps played good hockey against quality opposition. New Jersey qualifies as “good opposition” and should have the Caps’ full attention. If they do, the Caps can solve Brodeur enough while limiting the less offensively skilled Devils in their opportunities.

Sounds like a plan.

Caps 3 – Devils 2

The Sky is Falling, Goaltender Edition

1-2-0, 3.00, .897

2-2-0, 3.22, .890

2-1-0, 3.33, .906

1-3-0, 3.51, .865

1-2-0, 4.00, .868


The above would be, in order...

Niklas Backstrom (MIN), Vezina Trophy finalist in 2008-2009
Martin Brodeur (NJD), four-time Vezina Trophy winner
Steve Mason (CBJ), Vezina Trophy finalist in 2008-2009 and Calder Trophy winner
Roberto Luongo (VAN), two-time Vezina Trophy finalist
Tim Thomas (BOS), 2009 Vezina Trophy winner

It hasn't been a great start for goaltenders.

Of Sticks and Gloves

First, it was thought to be the sticks. Now, the gloves. The causes for Mike Green’s woes late last season and early this are a mystery. Well, we here at Peerless Central can’t stand to see a talented player such as Green melt into a puddle of quivering goo over some bad-luck implements of his trade. So, we enlisted the help of an expert in the field of the occult – Eddie Charms. Let me guess, your nickname is “Lucky.”

“No, ‘Fast Eddie’… I play a lot of pool."

OK, so… Mike Green. He’s having a devil of a time getting started. No goals, a few tough-to-take penalties. He thought it was his stick, then his gloves. What can the kid do to help get himself out of this mess?

“Well, there are any number of things anyone who is having back luck can do to turn the tide.”

Can you give us some examples?

“Well, there is what baseball players do… they spit on their new bat before using it for the first time to make it lucky.”

Given his picky attitude toward sticks, maybe he’s not going to spit all over them.

“Could it hurt? Shoot, have Ovechkin spit on them.”

He’d probably hurl a snot rocket at them.

“Good point. Well, he could hang a bell in his locker. Demons are afraid of bells, because the make loud noises.”

If that’s the case, he ought to be getting hat tricks at Verizon Center, it’s so loud.

“I noticed he’s sending a lot of pucks to the net from outside the faceoff circles, from along the boards, from up top…”

What’s your point?

“Circles… evil spirits can’t harm you when you stand inside a circle.”

Oh, I thought that was going to be some Nylander joke.

“Well, here’s one… if he’s driving to the arena, and he’s singing in his car, tell him to stop.”

And why is that?

“Sing before seven, cry before eleven. Oh, and does Mike cook?”

I don’t know, why?

“Tell him to get some onions and make a wish while he’s burns them on the stove.”

OK, this ought to be good.

“A wish will come true if he makes it while burning onions.”

Maybe he can use his old sticks as kindling for the fire.

“I see where the Caps aren’t practicing this morning.”

That’s right. What’s the significance of that?

“Well, Mike could go to over to Kettler and take a couple of minutes on the ice.”

Why?

“You can break a bad luck spell by turning seven times in a clockwise circle.”

Should Nylander show him how?

“Then there are the old standards…”

Like?

“Oh, like wearing his clothes inside out to bring good luck… wearing his birthstone to bring him good luck.”

Really? But isn’t it unlucky to wear opals?

“True… unless you were born in October.”

Mike was born in October… opal. Might be worth a shot. Hah!... get it? Worth a shot.

Well, Eddie, thanks for the tips. Maybe there is something here that Green could use to get himself out of his funk. Although, we’re guessing it’ll be some weird shot that he floats at the net that hits a couple of bodies and sticks before sneaking past the goaltender that will cure his ills.

But spit on the sticks, just in case.

A NO-point night: Red Wings 3 - Caps 2

Goaltending. It was a game about goaltending.

Well, sort of. Because if Jose Theodore didn’t play as well as he did, and Chris Osgood didn’t play as poorly as he did on two shots, the Caps would have lost tonight’s game against the Red Wings by a much wider margin than the final 3-2 score.

Actually, it was something of a clinic in Red Wing hockey. Subtle, yet effective defense. Don’t let the two goals fool you (both of which were on stoppable shots). The Caps really weren’t that close to mounting much of an offense. They spent the entire game fishing pucks from along the walls and from behind the Red Wing net. Take away the nine shots on goal from Alex Ovechkin, and the Caps had a total of 15 shots in 60 minutes, a lot of them from guys who aren’t necessarily that much of a threat to score – two by Matt Bradley (one of which resulted in a goal), and one each by Quintin Laing, Tyler Sloan, and David Steckel.

Here’s another way to look at that. The top line of Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Alexander Semin took 12 of the Caps’ 24 shots on goal. The other four lines of forwards had nine, and Mike Knuble had four of those.

And another… seven Caps didn’t have a shot on goal. Five of them didn’t have a shot attempt (Boyd Gordon, Eric Fehr, Chris Clark, Milan Jurcina, and Shaone Morrisonn).

And there is this – the Caps had a total of 40 attempts on goal, the Red Wings had 68. You’re going to expect a top line to get their shots, and the Red Wings’ top line of Henrik Zetterberg, Pavel Datsyuk, and Todd Bertuzzi had 11 shots on goal. But the other three forward lines had 20 shots and all three goals. Compare that to the Caps, where the second, third and fourth lines had a total of nine shots on goal and both goals.

It was a story of the undercard, and the Red Wings won that battle. The Red Wings make you spend so much time and effort just getting into position to shoot, you don't often manage to get a shot off before the puck is out of the zone going the other way.

And there was the curious inability to learn from one’s mistakes when it mattered. Semin and Mike Green took two minor penalties apiece, and the Red Wings scored on two of them, those being the last two power plays the Red Wings had. The Caps had one power play tally on three opportunities, so in that respect the special teams were the difference.

It’s not that the Caps played poorly – they didn’t. What they didn’t do, and what they haven’t done since the opening night 4-1 win over Boston, was play a solid 60 minutes at both ends of the ice. Tonight, the Caps didn’t have long stretches of poor play, like they did in the second period against Philadelphia last week, but they had those 10-15 second lapses that gave the Red Wings enough room to get shots on goal that Theodore couldn’t stop. There was the inability to prevent the Red Wings from crashing the net on the Ville Leino goal in the first and the leakage on defense that allowed Jason Williams and Tomas Holmstrom to have wide open looks at the Caps net that resulted in the power play goals that would secure the win.

Other stuff…

- Nicklas Backstrom saw his eight-game points streak (dating back to last year) come to an end.

- Alex Ovechkin had 10 hits. By itself, that would leave him in a tie for 41st in the league, and it is more than 540 players in the league who have dressed so far.

- Ovechkin was on the ice for 5:30 of the Caps’ 5:39 of power play ice time. Mike Green was on for 5:25.

- Green was reported to have changed his gloves to those he used last year. This isn’t a good sign. It’s not the gloves, it’s not the stick, but all this stuff seems to have gotten into his head.

- Alex Ovechkin had an assist tonight, giving him five on the year. Sidney Crosby has only one. Can we now call Sidney Crosby a “puck hog?”

- That Holmstrom goal in the third period? The first third period goal the Red Wings have scored this season.

- If Pavel Datsyuk and Mike Richards played on the same team, their goalie might not ever see a shot.

- Seven power play shots… five of them from Ovechkin. You get the feeling if the rest of the club raised their level of effort to that which Ovechkin has displayed thus far, the Caps would be 5-0.

- On the other hand, the Red Wings had only six power play shots, but they came from six different players, two of them finding the back of the net.

- The Caps were 13-for-16 on draws in the offensive zone. You’d have thought they would have been able to put more pressure on the Detroit net with that kind of dominance. OK, the Bradley goal did come off a faceoff win by Boyd Gordon.

- We don’t have a time-of-possession clock, but maybe a reasonable proxy is this… 16 faceoffs in the Detroit zone, 26 in the Caps’ zone.

- Some of the best chances on the Capitals power play came on the penalty to Derek Meech in the third. Unfortunately, those best chances were had by Detroit.

There is still a gap between these teams. Not much of one, perhaps, but still one nevertheless. The Caps had stretches when they played very well, where the effort was top notch, but there weren’t enough of them, and not for long enough. The Red Wings had a particularly solid effort up and down the lineup at both ends. But for the play of Jose Theodore, it might have been a four or five goal night. And but for a couple of stoppable shots that Chris Osgood flubbed, it might have been a 5-0 night.

You could say that this is a sign of the Red Wings’ maturity. Well, no. Not anymore. This Caps team is in their third year together, and even the younger guys have built a fairly lengthy body of work at the NHL level. What they haven’t given evidence of in the last three-plus games is having grown up, of having the moxie to grind out games like this. Maybe there is too much “slick” and not enough just meat and potatoes hockey, although again, there were stretches of that on this night.

They’ve been outworked in the last three games, and they have three losses to show for it. And on Monday, the hardest working team in hockey pays a visit to Verizon Center. If the Caps don’t match the effort that the New Jersey Devils are likely to bring, the Caps will find themselves on the south side of .500 for the first time this year.

Something got us thinking

We were visiting the Red Wings web site, and we took note of the various season ticket plans that were available. Leaving aside the fact that we never thought we'd ever see the Red Wings advertising this late in the year for season ticket plans, we were struck by what was available.

Of course, they have the "45 game" plan that covers all regular seaon and preseason games (note to staff... there are less than 45 games left, unless you're going to include playoff games at this point).

But the Wings also have a 19-game plan that they call the "Yzerman" plan for Stevie Y's number. Then there is the 9-game plan named for, you guessed it, Gordie Howe.

We were wondering, how might the Caps employ such a scheme?

- First, a 19-game or a 9-game plan won't work. Somehow, the "Brendan Witt" plan or the "Dainus Zubrus" plan doesn't seem like a stroke of marketing genius.

- The 37-game "Kolzig" plan. The games with Pittsburgh and Philly aren't included because he never did particularly well against those teams anyway.

- The 20 game "Metropolit" plan to commemorate all the teams in North America and Europe for which he has played (ok, it's 18... sue me).

- The four game "Alexei Tezikov" plan that includes games against the Islanders, Coyotes, Thrashers, and Avalanche... figure it out.

- The 11-game "Esa Tikkanen" plan, but you get to miss all your games.

- The 18-game "Craig Laughlin" plan that comes with coupons for biscuits in a basket.

- The 16-game plan "Trevor Linden" plan, but you only get to attend ten games before your remaining tickets are sent to Vancouver.

- The 25-game "Mike Grier" plan, but you never get to see a game, because you keep dropping your ticket on the way to the gate.

- The 68-game "Jaromir Jagr" plan, but it'll cost you 10 million bucks, and they'll be lousy seats.

- The 40-game "Nolan Yonkman" plan, but you see only four games before you trip on the stairs and break a foot.

... just a thought.

Trust us... it gets harder. No, really

Two games, two wins.

62 shots faced, 61 shots stopped (including 38 last night in a shut out*, on the road, in what might be the most difficult arena in the league for his club to visit. As his opposite number put it, "He was there. He was square")

119 minutes and 37 seconds played, a 0.50 goals against average.

Oh, and these are the first two games this kid has played as a pro.

Ah, to be Braden Hotlby this morning.

* By the way, that's the third consecutive time the Bears have shutout the WBS Penguins, dating back to last spring's Calder Cup playoffs.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Red Wings, October 10th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

We’re here live at Peerless Central on a Saturday morning as the Caps head off to vist The Joe – Joe Louis Arena – to take on the two-time Western Conference champion Detroit Red Wings, and…

“What’s goin’ on?”

Well, if it isn’t an old friend of ours from our college days in Michigan, Mo Towne. Mo, it’s good to see you again. Hey, it’s too bad about Johan Franzen – I see where he’s going to be out for a few months after injuring his knee against the Blackhawks the other night.

“It’s a shame.”

And it’s not like the Wings are off to the sort of start folks in Detroit were expecting, either.

“A ball of confusion…that’s what the world is today.”

Espeically coming after that heartbreaking loss to the Penguins in t he finals last spring.

“Can you see the tracks of my tears?...what becomes of the brokenhearted?"

But the Red Wings are still a formidable team, aren’t they?

“You could say they’re a brick… house.”

But it’s going to be tough holding off those rising Blackhawks, I would imagine.

“Nowhere to run…”

But the Wings still have a strong core of players – Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Valtteri Filppula, Brian Rafalski, Niklas Kronwall, Brad Stuart – signed for years.

“Signed, sealed, delivered…”

And they seem to have some talented kids in Ville Leino, Jonathan Ericsson, and Justin Abdelkader, even though they just sent Abdelkader down.

“Super freak!”

But I guess the key is still Nicklas Lidstrom.

“Ain’t nothin’ like the real thing, baby…”

But the Caps have improved quite a bit in the last couple of years, too. It should be a good one tonight…

“War!”

So you’ll be there tonight?

“I’ll be there…”

Well, we’ll have to do this again soon…

“Keep on truckin’…”

As the Caps take the road to visit Detroit tonight, they can take comfort in the fact that they have not lost a game in regulation to the Red Wings at Joe Louis Arena since January 2002. OK, so they’ve only played there in two games since, but 1-0-1 is better than most teams fare in that venue.

The Red Wings have stumbled out of the gate, by their standards. At 1-2-0 and two standings points, no Western Conference team has fewer points. But it is, as they say, early. Any team with this statistical profile from last year has to be thought better than their start suggests:

Points: 112 (3rd)
Goals for/game: 3.52 (1st)
Goals against/game: 2.93 (20th)
5-on-5: 1.20 (4th)
Power play: 25.5% (1st)
Penalty killing: 78.3% (25th)
Winning pct. when scoring first: .804 (2nd)
Winning pct. when leading after 1st period: .788 (12th)
Winning pct. When leading after 2nd period: .810 (24th)

But looking at those numbers, you have to start to wonder, are the Wings primed for a slip in the standings? The Wings are and remain a powerful offensive team, but in last year’s regular season they also gave up a lot of goals and have allowed 11 in three games so far this season.

The Wings were a dangerous team with the man advantage last year – the best power play success rate in this decade. But they were a poor penalty killing club that benefitted from being tied for 10th in fewest times shorthanded last year. So far this year, their penalty killing has been ghastly, even by Caps standards. At 64.3 percent (9-for-14 in three games), this could be a dangerous problem for the Wings as they try to repeat as conference champs. It could be a problem in the context of this game as the Capitals have converted 23.8 percent of their power play chances so far this season and were second to the Wings (with the second best power play of this decade) last season.

And, speaking of power play and penalty calls that create them, it has already gotten under the skin, it would seem, of Red Wing goalie Chris Osgood…

"Every year the calls are exactly the same. They call the most ridiculous things for the first two months of the season trying to jack up the scores, then they call nothing as the season goes along, depending on who you are."

The Red Wings have participated in 5-on-3 situations in each of their first three games – two against and one for, and that doesn’t include a 6-on-4 to end the Wings’ 3-2 win over Chicago in their last outing when the Blackhawks pulled their goalie on a late power play.

Another problem the Red Wings will have to solve is bad finishes. Specifically, the Red Wings have not scored a third period goal this year. While they’ve been able to hold opponents to two third period goals in three games (both goals coming in losses), the Wings have not been able to muster much in the way of an effective late attack.

Which brings us to the back end of the defense (and we use that term “back end” with some caution) – goaltending. Neither Chris Osgood (3.03 GAA, .895 SV) nor new backup (for now) Jimmy Howard (5.17, .844) have distinguished themselves in net thus far. But it is, as they say, early. Osgood had an equally grim regular season last year (3.09, .887), yet still backstopped the Wings to the Cup final.

What the Wings are going to have to deal with that they did not last year is a serious injury early. If one looks at the core of skaters for the Red Wings, none of forwards Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg, Marian Hossa, Johan Franzen, Brian Rafalski, or Nicklas Lidstrom played in fewer than 71 games. Only Brad Stuart among the top-four defensemen played in fewer than 70 games.

Well, Franzen is out an estimated four months after having sustainging the dreaded “ACL” knee injury against the Blackhawks in the Wings’ last game. Franzen hasn’t had any particular success against the Caps (one goal in three career games). But losing a player with 61 goals over the past two years will leave a mark.

We could say at this point that guys like Datsyuk or Zetterberg will have to fill the void. But the Wings are in a bit of a transition. There is a “next generation” thing happening under the star level for the Wings.

Ville Leino bears watching. In a late season trial last year, Leino put up five goals and four assists in 13 games, which he followed up with a pair of assists in seven playoff games. However, he did put up 28 goals for Jokerit Helsinki (Finland) in 2007-2008, and he had 15 goals in 57 games in Grand Rapids last year (plus 3-10-13 in 10 playoff games for the Griffins).

Leino is the oldest (he turned 26 last week) of a young group that is poised to take over bigger responsibilities. Jonathan Ericsson (25) got his feet wet with the Wings last year (19 games, 1-3-4, minus-1) and picked up some valuable playoff experience (4-4-8, plus-9 in 22 playoff games). He could grow into a minutes-eater on the Red Wings blue line for years to come. Not that he needs any more size at 6’4”, 220.

Valtteri Filppula is the most experienced of the young group in terms of NHL games played (238 regular season games, 63 playoff games in three full seasons). In in Red Wings mold, he’s shown flashes of offensive talent (31 goals over the last two years in 158 regular season games, eight goals in 45 playoff games) and defensive responsibility ((plus-25 over the past two years in the regular season, plus-15 in the playoffs). Also in the Red Wings mold, he’s been brought along slowly, getting mostly third and fourth line responsibility. But now, with Franzen out, he might be the one to watch as the player to assume a bigger role in the middle.

The Wings have some sorting out to do of the sort that they haven’t had to do lately. How their lines remix with Franzen out will be an issue, although the Wings certainly have enough firepower (not to mention experience) to make any variety of combinations work. Perhaps more troubling is that the Wings have gotten off to a rough start in their own end of the ice, and this really isn’t much different from last year, when they finished the regular season a very mediocre defensive team.

The Wings’ weaknesses play to the Caps’ strengths. But by the same token, the Wings' strengths (depth in scoring) play to the Caps’ weaknesses (the Caps are 24th in goals allowed per game so far this season). It is the irresistible forces meeting the very movable objects. This is a game where a dozen goals might be scored in regulation with an overtime needed to settle the matter (we can’t imagine needing a whole overtime). And that’s how we think it will unfold…

Caps 7 – Wings 6 (OT)

Taking the Long View

Look, let’s be up front about this. Bruce Boudreau doesn’t need some hack at a keyboard coming to his defense. He’s an Jack Adams Award winner, and the last time we looked, the only hardware we had was the four trophies the Alex Ovechkin bobblehead on our desk is holding. Boudreau forgot more about hockey stirring his morning coffee than we’re ever likely to know.

But here’s the thing. When the Caps lose, and lose in as particularly ugly a fashion as they did last night, there are whispers. Boudreau needs to sit this guy… Boudreau needs to wake up and realize Jeff Schultz is better equipped to have a job with a paper hat… Boudreau can’t be skating Boyd Gordon on a nightly basis… What’s Boudreau doing skating Tyler Sloan as a forward, for heaven’s sake??

Well, kids, here’s the deal. Last night was Game 4 in an 82-game season. Without looking it up, can you recall the result of Game 4 of last year’s season?* There is a long, long road ahead, and there will be ups and downs along the way. But of special relevance to this discussion is this. It’s all about the spring. So what if the Caps don’t win a Southeast Division title this year (we think they will, but humor us)? It’s not like anyone really cares at this point to see another Southeast Division Champion banner hoisted over the catwalk railing at Verizon Center. The only good it does at this point is provide employment to fabric manufacturers.

It’s all about the spring and finding out who can and can’t play (or play consistently) at a high level, both individually and – perhaps more important – within the team framework and philosophy.

We know already that the regular season is going to be largely an audition between Jose Theodore and Semyon Varlamov to see who gets the call as “The Man” in the spring in goal. But there is more than that. Coach Boudreau needs to know who can play with whom. Are John Erskine and Tom Poti, in fact, a train wreck waiting to happen as a defensive pair (they looked like it against Philly)? Better to find that out in October and November than in April or when you’re facing an elimination game.

Is Ovechkin-Backstrom-Semin really a line for the ages, or is it the NHL equivalent of shooting a satellite into the moon and watching the pretty show for a few minutes (we have that on our minds this morning as we watch the live NASA feed with one eye)?

Should Chris Clark play on the third line… should he play -- can he play -- on the top line?... should he be a scratch? It would be nice to find out now, not in the last week of the season.

Can Tyler Sloan be an adequate fill in as a depth forward? You probably don’t want to be asking that question in the second week of April.

Are Brendan Morrison and Mike Knuble – teammates from long ago in maize and blue – a good fit as linemates in red and blue? Hey, they’re both new here, let's find out… now, before the crunch of a stretch run and a playoff series.

This isn’t the Beauty Contest System of college football, where if you lose a game in September, you can kiss your “national championship” dreams goodbye. It’s not the NFL, where you have only 16 Sundays to get yourself into the playoffs. This is an 82-game season. A couple of years ago, a Capitals coach won the first three games of the season and was fired on Thanksgiving.

Things change.

You could say that this Capitals team is little different than the one that skated off the ice last May after losing to the Penguins, and in terms of the roster, you’d be right. But you’d also be wrong. Every team is different. Young guys mature at different rates. Older guys might see this skill or that start to slip. Teammates than clicked last year might be thoroughly incompatible now, or at least not the best of fit. Better to find these things out now, to look at different pairings on defense, to look at line combinations, to test and stretch players outside of their comfortable roles, than to seek answers to those questions, or worse – problems – in April.

None of this excuses bad results or indifferent efforts such as that last night. That is a separate issue that we suspect the coaching staff will address. But with respect to how players are used, to what roles they are assigned, and to the extent they fit better with one teammate or another, remember… there is a bigger objective here than winning a game in October. There is the matter of winning 16 games in April, May and June. And if that means sacrificing a result here or there now to be ready to win those games in the spring, then it isn’t just smart coaching, it the smart management move to take the long view.




* It was a 4-3 win over Pittsburgh.

A NO-point night: Rangers 4 - Caps 3

There are nights when players take the ice, when there is a rhythm and tempo that makes for a seamless flow, a thread weaving its way about the ice in red, a tapestry of skill, determination, and success.

Well, this wasn’t one of those games.

Every team will have a real stinker from time to time, a game that hangs above the ice like a haze wafting in from the local sewage plant.

This wasn’t one of those games either. It was more disturbing.

From the center face-off dot to the rafters, Caps Nation – both players and fans – were pretty much dead tonight, a curious turn of events given that the Caps were playing a divisional rival that they met for higher stakes last spring. But the Rangers emerged… well, I suppose “victorious” would be the word here, but it was hardly a “victory.” More like, “we got the two points, boys, let’s head for the bus before somebody figures out we shouldn’t have gotten them, either.”

It was a 4-3 result that had one scratching one’s head (and frankly, we can’t afford too much more scratching – we don’t have a lot of hair left). It was an “Alphonse and Gaston” act in which the Rangers gave the Caps countless opportunities to settle the competitive portion of the evening early, only to have the Caps say, “thanks, but please, after you.”


The Rangers took four penalties in the first period, but the Caps converted on none of them, not even a 5-on-3 advantage. But the Caps did get a goal when Brian Pothier backed off the Rangers defense toward the left wing half-wall, then spied Alexander Semin pinching in from the right wing point. Semin snapped the puck through before goalie Henrik Lundqvist could get across the crease.

The Caps should have considered themselves fortunate to lead at the first intermission despite the four power plays and having taken a total of only seven shots in the period.

Well, fortune smiled on the same end of the ice in the second period – not a good thing for the Caps, because that was the end they were defending. Ryan Callahan scored on a backhand to tie the game 8:47 into the second period, and Ales Kotalik duplicated the feat with another backhand 2:01 later. Just like that, the Caps had played cordial host.

But hey, a cordial host is nothing without an appreciative guest, and the Rangers were exactly that just past the three minute mark of the third period. Looking to send the puck in on what was a harmless dump-in, Nicklas Backstrom sent the puck on goal from just over the center red line. Henrik Lundqvist, apparently pondering “hair gel” or “no hair gel” for the post game shower, waved pitifully at the puck with his stick as it slid past him on the long side from somewhere near the Old Post Office. Suddenly, we were tied.

OK, it’s 2-2, and it’s a game again. At this point, the Caps actually showed signs of life (the irony of the Caps employing a “pulse” in their pre-game intro video was not lost on this observer). Trouble is, life lasted all of four minutes and 34 seconds. That’s how long it took for Backstrom to score in a more conventional manner, taking a nice little feed from Brooks Laich to convert a power play – their only conversion in nine opportunities on this night.

So now it’s 3-2, Caps… what is the next phrase out of every announcer’s mouth since Foster Hewitt? Take your time, we’ll wait…

“You can’t let the other team score on the next shift.”

Sure enough, 18 seconds after Backstrom gave the Caps the lead, Jose Theodore handed it right back. Marian Gaborik fired the puck from between the top of the circles, the game was tied, and the Caps returned to their somnambulistic ways. Less than three minutes later, while the Caps were stifling yawns, it was Gaborik one more time, this time from a little further out, but again right there in the middle of the ice. The second of two goals that Jose Theodore should have turned away.

It was an especially unfortunate end for Theodore, since he played a solid, if not spectacular, 40 minutes to open the game. But those two goals at the end were the kinds of lapses in focus that found him modeling lids on the bench for the next 13 starts the Caps would have in the playoffs last year.

But even with that, the Rangers weren’t done giving. Donald Brashear left a parting gift for his former teammates by taking a rather silly tripping penalty with 5:06 left in the contest. But alas, there would be no tying goal, and frankly, the Caps didn’t deserve the point anyway.

Other stuff…

- OK, the first line of Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Alexander Semin went 3-1-4, even… not a bad night. But nine power play shots and nothing to show for it?

- There are nights we wonder what color the sky is in the official scorer’s world. Nicklas Backstrom was credited with winning nine of 16 draws, when for the life of us, we were wondering if he was going to win a draw against air.

- The Caps were certainly equal opportunity “blah”… 14 of the 18 skaters could claim to have been on the ice for at least one Ranger goal (John Erskine, Brian Pothier, Brooks Laich, and Mike Knuble being the only ones to escape unblemished). The checkers – Steckel and Laing – were on for two goals. The energy guys – Matt Bradley, Boyd Gordon, and Tyler Sloan – were on for another. Add in Chris Clark, who was on for one goal, and lines three and four were on for three of the four goals while recording only one assist (Sloan). As Coach Boudreau said after the game, if you’re not going to score, you’d better not be on for any goals against.

- Sometimes you get the bear, sometimes the bear gets you. Ovechkin had 14 shot attempts (nine shots on goal) without finding the back of the net.

- Mike Green had 15 shot attempts, and it was a display that continued demonstrating that all of sports, it seems, is a game of inches. He had six missed shots among those 14 attempts, and it seemed as if every one was a couple of inches high over the net. Last year, those shots were a couple of inches under the crossbar.

- For what it’s worth, Nicklas Backstrom is now your league scoring leader (2-8-10). Semin and Ovechkin are tied for second.

- Now, here’s the flip side of that. The second line (Brooks Laich, Brendan Morrison, and Mike Knuble) had a total of three shots on goal tonight. OK, it’s only one night, and they still have six goals among them.

- 17 giveaways tonight… boy, it sure seemed like more.

- The Caps have now allowed 12 goals in the last seven regulation periods of hockey, starting with the three Toronto scored in a 6-2 Caps win. That’s “mite” hockey… as in “mite-y bad.”

- At this point, it is more than a little unnerving that a group of Marc Staal (22 years old, 166 games including tonight’s), Matt Gilroy (25, 4), and Michael Del Zotto (19, 4) could play better defense for 60 minutes than Mike Green (23, 246), Jeff Schultz (23, 176), and Tom Poti (32, 721). The Caps simply did not take enough advantage of the young defense for the Rangers.

- And why was that so? Well, it wasn’t only the defensemen. The team just didn’t make the Rangers pay any sort of price for playing in role of the visitor. The forwards bear a measure of responsibility for playing without much energy.

- Playing with such a lack of energy and focus resulted in the Caps wasting an opportunity on a night where Henrik Lundqvist did not look to be in world-beater mode. He was good, but it would have been interesting to see whether he’d have been any better had the Caps managed more quality chances.

- Because with respect to chances… 28 shots on goal, 40 misfires (22 shots blocked, 18 misses)

- On the other hand, the Caps blocked only eight shots. Who was paying a price?

- Anyone want to start taking odds that Michal Neuvirth is going to have another whirlwind season of travel that will see him end up this time in the Caps' net in mid-April?

The Rangers gave the Caps opportunity after opportunity on the power play, and the Caps gave it right back by converting on only one of nine opportunities. The Rangers put the game on a platter for the Caps when Henrik Lundqvist butchered a simple dump in. The Caps gave it right back when Jose Theodore gave up the tying and winning goals on very stoppable shots in the third period. The Caps should have won against a team where the only reliable offensive threat is Marian Gaborik, and the defense is way to green to be able to stand up – on paper – against the Caps scoring depth. But the Rangers managed to win the two points largely because the Caps didn’t seem terribly interested in taking those points for themselves.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps vs. Rangers, October 8th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

It’s Hockey Night on Fun Street as the Capitals host the New York Rangers. And today’s issue is – goaltending. Our precocious young netminder with the quick reflexes and the twitchy glove has been having his problems lately. For those of you keeping score, Semyon Varlamov has allowed at least four goals in each of the last six appearances, his last four playoff game appearances last May and his first two appearances in the 2009-2010 season. In those six appearances, he is 2-3-0, 4.94, .867. And if a technical weakness has been found, it is in his having a glove hand with holes in it.

So, this being a technical problem, we consulted a technical expert. Our old friend, Dr. Vynot Schootdepuck, Director of Advanced Applications at the Bettman Institute of Technology and Competitive Hockey. Dr. V, thanks for all your help. How have things been going at BITCH?

“Ah… gut, gut. Vee heff been ver-r-r-r-ry busy mit all ze noo-est technologies. In vackt, vee heff been testing zum noo technologies in ze verr-r-ry subject you are inter-r-r-ested in.”

You don’t zay…. Uh, say.

“Ja, vee are tezztink zum new gizmos und gedgets for ze goaltender who vants to be on ze cutting edge.”

And how has it gone so far?

“Vell, to be honest… not zo gut. Ve tested ze new egg-schpandable pedds…”

You mean ‘pads?’

“Ja… pedds… for Roberto Luongo.”

The same Roberto Luongo with the 4.55 GAA and .820 save percentage?

“Ja, zat’s ze vun. I sink ve need zum more testing. Und ze new mask mit the laser eye-schkope to zee ze puck better.”

How did that work?

“Uh, Marty isn’t doing vell mit it.”

You mean Martin Brodeur… 4.03, .849?

“Ja, Fatso himself. Ve thought zat ze com-pyoo-terized schtick vould be a beeg hit. But Nabby vuss pr-r-r-retty schabby playing mit it.”

Nabokov?

“ja, ja… it vuss a failure.”

So how do you think you can help Semyon Varlamov, Dr. V?

“Vell, ve here at BITCH have come up mit a zooper-zeecret new glove technology. It combines ze schpider vebb net materials dat Schpider Menn uses and the soft feel of ze Isotoner glove.”

You mean….

“Ja, just a little flick of ze wrist, und ze goalie can schpritz ze Schpidey Schtuff at ze puck und schtopp it before it goes into the net, and his hends vill schtill feel soft mit de zoft leathery glove pr-r-r-rotecting his hend.”

Revolutionary!

“Ja, vell… ve heff do do zumtink mit all dis gr-r-r-rant money.”

Well, it looks as if young Mr. Varlamov will have to wait to test the latest technologies from BITCH, because it is likely to be Jose Theodore getting the call for the Caps in tonight’s tilt against the Rangers. The Blueshirts come into this game a very different club than the one that lost to the Caps in seven games in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals last spring. Of the 18 skaters that dressed for Game 7 in that series, seven have departed. Gone are Nik Antropov (Atlanta), Scott Gomez (Montreal), Lauri Korpikoski (Phoenix), Paul Mara (Montreal), Derek Morris (Boston), Fredrik Sjostrom (Calgary), and Nikolai Zherdev (as far away as possible).That is 64 goals worth of offense that has departed from a team that only had 200 goals last year.

The Rangers expect to make up at least half of that missing offense with newcomer Marian Gaborik. The trick there is keeping him on the ice. Since playing in 65 games for the Minnesota Wild in the 2005-2006 season (one in which he finished 38-28-66), he missed 104 games over the next three seasons. But even playing in only 142 games over those seasons he managed to score 85 goals. That’s a 49-goal pace over a full 82-game season. The term “high-risk/high-reward” certainly applies to Gaborik. If he can stay upright for 65-plus games, he could be a 40-plus goal scorer. If he plays half or fewer games for the Rangers, it’ll be an early spring.

The Rangers also added some offense in the form of Chris Higgins (12-11-23 in 57 games with Montreal last year), Vaclav Prospal (19-26-45 with Tampa Bay), and Ales Kotalik (20-23-43 in splitting time with Edmonton and Buffalo). They’ll join Chris Drury, who now has the burden of being the object of attention for his mega-contract ($7.05 million/year cap hit for the next three seasons) now that Scott Gomez is gone. In two years, he had had respectable scoring totals (25-33-58 two years ago and 22-34-56 last year), but he hasn’t been nearly the impact player the Rangers had hoped for.

But in adding these four forwards, the Rangers appear to have gotten softer, especially if uber-pest Sean Avery sits this one out. And that is where Donald Brashear comes in. Brashear is one of those super-heavyweights who no longer has to actually fight to influence the environment. Last year he had 11 fights (tied for 29th in the league), which was lower than his average of 15 fights per season in his 13 full seasons in the league. The difficulty faced by Brashear is that his talents seem ill-fitted to the way the league has evolved since the lockout. In the eight seasons preceding the lockout, Brashear averaged 8-12-20 per season playing an average of 74 games a year. Since then, he has averaged 4-5-9 a season, also averaging 74 games a year. Once a bruiser who could provide minimal production as a fourth liner, he has evolved into largely a one-dimensional player. Whether that dimension will be of sufficient value to the Rangers to merit $1.4 million in each of the next two seasons is debatable.

If the Rangers have a heart and soul player, though, it is Brandon Dubinsky. A player who is fearless about using his body to gain advantage, Dubinsky has enjoyed modest success as an offensive player, scoring 40 and 41 points in the his two full years with the club. A drawn out negotiation of his contract resulted in a two year, $3.7 million deal, and it could be a bargain. Dubinsky comes into this game leading the team in scoring (3-2-5) and is plus-5 in three games.

The blue line is a source of considerable uncertainty for New York. Wade Redden and Michal Roszival had seasons last year that were very difficult at times, and when you’re occupying $11.5 million of cap room, any difficulty you have will be magnified. Playing in New York magnifies it times ten. The two led the Rangers defense in scoring last year (Reddan was 8-22-30, and Roszival was 3-23-26), but the two were also securely on the negative side of the ledger (Reddan at minus-7, Roszival at minus-5) while each logging more than 22 minutes of ice time a night. With the more physical Paul Mara and Derek Morris gone, these two will have to raise their game.

At the other end of the spectrum, the Rangers have three very young defensemen, experience-wise. Michael Del Zotto and Matt Gilroy are rookies. Marc Staal is a comparative gray beard with 165 games at age 22.

But in the end, the Rangers’ fortunes rise or fall on the talented (and perhaps poufy) shoulders of goalie Henrik Lundqvist. Last year he had his “worst,” if you could call it that, goals against average in four seasons (2.43), the first year of his career that he was not a Vezina Trophy finalist. He did, however, set a career high in wins (38). He is already sixth in the all-time wins for the Rangers (144) and should leapfrog Dave Kerr (157) to reach the fifth spot before the season is half over. Among goalies playing in more than 100 games for the Rangers, Lundqvist ranks third in career goals-against and is first in career save percentage. Against the Caps he has been effective, if not particularly efficient. He is 8-3-2 against the Caps in the regular season for his career, 2.78, .905, with one shutout.

Are the Rangers, at this point in time, a reasonable approximation in temperament of their head coach, the excitable, often irritable John Tortorella? Probably not. The Rangers have some skill, but not in depth. Their defense really lacks physical presence and the feistiness that Tortorella brings to the bench. It is a team that could be prone to intermittent lack of focus, a trait that might be reflected in Tortorella’s taking a time out only 1:24 into the game against the Devils on Monday when the Rangers came out flat. It seemed to have the desired effect – a 3-2 win for New York – but it isn’t the sort of thing that can be regularly applied.

Gaborik has the ability to take over games at one end of the ice, and Lundqvist has the ability to do it at the other. More often than not, it seems, that will have to be the recipe for Ranger success this year. In this game, they cannot match the Caps depth of skill. It is that depth that should have the capacity to wear down a green defense and pound pucks at Lundqvist… that is, unless they try to get cute for the home folks.

It’ll be handshakes and head-rubs all around for the men in red, though.

Caps 5 – Rangers 3