Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Game 2: Capitals 2 - Rangers 0

The two most powerful warriors are patience and time. – Tolstoy

The Caps made it two for two against the New York Rangers last night behind goals by the Jasons – Chimera and Arnott – and 22 saves by goalie Michal Neuvirth in defeating the Blueshirts, 2-0.

The scoreboard looked a lot like Wednesday’s first period scoreboard with neither team able to tickle the twine. However, how they were authoring that result was a bit different this time around. The Rangers came out hard with four shots on goal in the first 97 seconds. But Neuvirth turned all of them away to allow his teammates to get their skating legs. Jason Chimera finally got the Caps on the shot meter 6:17 in, but the Caps had no better luck than the Rangers in finding the back of the net. The first period ended scoreless.

As unruffled as the nets were in the first period, they became, well… ruffled at the start of the second. At one end of the rink, anyway. Jason Chimera took a feed from Marcus Johansson between the hash marks and one-timed the pass past goalie Henrik Lundqvist at 2:11 of the period. Brooks Laich got the second assist, but it does not do justice to the hard work he put in to make that goal happen. After a faceoff in the Ranger end, Laich dueled with defenseman Matt Gilroy for the puck in the Rangers’ left wing corner. He kept the puck alive, pushing it back to Chimera along the boards. The puck came back around to Laich behind the Ranger net, and with Gilroy draped all over him, he pushed the puck one-handed to Johansson, who then found Chimera for the goal.

Just 1:57 later the Caps got some good fortune on a power play. Alex Ovechkin walked the puck down the blue line at the top of the Rangers’ zone and flicked it over to Mike Green at the top of the right wing faceoff circle. Green walked the puck down a couple of steps and took a shot from the edge of the right wing circle. Matt Gilroy blocked the shot, but not cleanly. The puck deflected across the slot, and when it came out the other side, right onto the stick of Jason Arnott. He did not waste the opportunity, burying the puck before goalie Henrik Lundqvist could get across to defend the shot.

And that was all Michal Neuvirth needed, looking for all the world like a 12-year vet instead of a rookie playing in his second NHL playoff game. Only once all game could it be said Neuvirth was swimming around in his crease, that coming about seven minutes into the third period and the Caps nursing that two-goal lead. But with Neuvirth down and out on a scramble in front, John Erskine made a glove save of his own, knocking down a Brandon Prust shot that was ticketed for the short side of the net. That was as much pressure as the Rangers could muster, and now they have to find a way to solve not only Neuvirth, but a suffocating defense that limited the Rangers to 22 shots on goal.

Other stuff…

-- Not only did the Rangers have only 22 shots on goal, they had only 48 attempts in 60 minutes, almost 20 fewer than what they had in 64 minutes in Game 1 (65). Only nine total shots on goal in the last 40 minutes tonight.

-- Are the Caps buying into this defense-first thing? Watching Mike Green lay out in the second period on shot by Brandon Dubinsky to block it was pretty convincing evidence that they are.  As was Karl Alzner taking one for the team and finishing his shift despite his being in considerable distress.

-- Brooks Laich wins the score sheet buffet coupon. An assist, plus-1, one shot on goal, five attempts, a hit, a takeaway, two blocked shots, and won six-of-nine draws in a shade under 19 minutes.

-- If Laich won the buffet, Marcus Johansson might be standing right behind him in line. He had an assist, was plus-1, had a shot on goal, three attempts, a hit, two blocked shots, and won five of eight draws in just under 17 minutes.

-- Sixteen of 18 skaters were credited with hits for the Caps (Boyd Gordon and Scott Hannan the only Caps without one).

-- In two games the Rangers have 47 shots on goal and have had 53 shot attempts blocked.

-- Marian Gaborik had four shots on goal, but was pushed outside to get them. They came from an average of almost 35 feet from the net.

-- Karl Alzner responded to a reporter’s comment yesterday that blocked shots are not the sexiest statistic by saying, “it is to me.” Alzner will make young women swoon with his exploits last night – eight blocked shots that puts him at the top of the playoff rankings in that statistic (11 total in two games).

-- Four Caps have at least five blocked shots (Jeff Schultz, Scott Hannan, and Mike Green – wait, did you say “Mike Green?” – yes, Mike Green are the others).

-- Coach Bruce Boudreau had a chance to manage ice time in a little more balanced manner in this game. No forward skated 20 minutes; no defenseman skated as many as 22 minutes.

-- The Rangers had no giveaways? None?

In the end, one has to wonder what John Tortorella has left to try in this series. He tried putting Erik Christensen, Vaclav Prospal, and Marian Gaborik on a line to generate more offense. They has a total of six shots on goal. He tried inserting Sean Avery into the lineup to provide some energy. Avery skated a mostly quiet ten minutes.

In fact, even though coach Bruce Boudreau did not seem especially pleased with the play of the Caps in the first five minutes of both the first and third periods, the Rangers looked small and slow in this one. And the Rangers did not do nearly as good a job as in Game 1 in getting pucks deep and working from behind the goal line. The Caps did a much better job taking away the boards and thus preventing a lot of the Rangers’ avenue to getting those pucks deep.

There is little more Henrik Lundqvist can do for the Rangers. He cannot be faulted for either of the Caps goals tonight. Stopping 47 of 51 shots (a .922 save percentage) will win a goalie his share of games. At the moment, Brian Boyle might be the best player so far among the skaters. And as good a story as that might otherwise have been for the Rangers, he can’t be their best skater. Marian Gaborik has done next to nothing, and has not looked especially engaged in doing (or not doing) it. Brandon Dubinsky has no points, is minus-3, and has won only 36 percent of his draws. Vaclav Prospal has only three shots on goal; Chris Drury has none.

The Rangers are trying to crash the net, but it hasn’t been successful. And given the lack of offensive skill in their lineup, they do not have a lot of paths that get them to a solution for their inability to solve Neuvirth. Unless Tortorella has another idea, he might be reduced to trying to get more out of a limited set of strategies. And that could make for a quick series.

But again, let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Just win one game…14 more times.

Omens

Perusing Twitter this morning, we are struck by all the tweets mulling the meaning of music or the sway of signs on the outcome of tonight's game between the Caps and the Rangers.  In other words, these tweeters wonder if there are omens in the mundane that point to a win or a loss tonight.  Well, let's see...

-- Today is the 559th anniversary of the birth of Leonardo daVinci, described as "a painter, sculptor, scientist, visionary ."  Sort of like the Alexander Semin of his day.  Hat trick for Good Sasha...

-- Adrian Cadbury (former chairman of the candy manufacturer) was born on this date in 1929.  Hershey manufactures and distributes Cadbury-branded chocolate in the United States.  Hershey is where the Bears play.  mmm....sweet!

-- On this date in 1738, the bottle-opener was invented. On omen for good times and adult beverages tonight?

-- On this date in 1892, General Electric incorporated in New York.  GE designed those nuclear reactors in Japan that are so much in the news.  An omen there?

-- On this date in 1912, the Royal Mail Ship "Titanic" sank on its maiden voyage (its "first round" of service, so to speak) on its way to...New York.  An omen about not reaching your goal, New York fans?

-- On this date in 1925, the "New York Americans" NHL franchise was awarded to sports promoter Thomas Duggan and bootlegger Wiliam "Big Bill" Bill Dwyer.  It was the first NHL team in New York.  The team played its first season icing players from the former Hamilton Tigers, which was suspended from the league (despite finishing first the season before) because they struck for higher pay.  Dwyer ended up lavishing higher salaries on his new players.  What's the omen here?  Well, the Americans lasted 17 years and didn't win anything (no Cups, out of the playoffs in 12 of those years) despite being bankrolled by deep pockets ownership.  Sound familiar, Ranger fans?

They don't have a chance.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Game 2: Caps vs. Rangers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Well, we’re off and running in the 2011 Stanley Cup tournament, the Washington Capitals breaking out on top of the New York Rangers with a 2-1 overtime win on Wednesday when Sasha Prime scored ugly and Sasha Minor scored pretty in the first extra session to overcome a goal by Matt Gilroy and 31 saves from Ranger goalie Henrik Lundqvist.

Now it is a matter of adding a few shovelfuls of dirt on the Rangers to bury them under a 2-0 series deficit. And then…

“Ya know, cuz, the Caps aren’t exactly worl’ beaters when they win a Game 1.”

Huh?

“The Caps…winning Game 1 ain’t such a big thing here, cuz?”

Is that so?

“Yeah, I looked it up. When the Caps win Game 1 in a seven-game series…”

1984, second round: Caps 3 – Islanders 2… lost the series 4-1
1987, first round: Caps 4 – Islanders 3… lost the series, 4-3
1988, second round: Caps 3 – Devils 1… lost the series, 4-3
1989, first round: Caps 3 – Flyers 2… lost the series, 4-2
1990, first round: Caps 5 – Devils 4… Caps won the series, 4-2
1991, second round: Caps 4 – Penguins 2… lost the series, 4-1
1992, first round: Caps 3 – Penguins 1… lost the series, 4-3
1993, first round: Caps 3 – Islanders 1… lost the series 4-2
1994, first round: Caps 5 – Penguins 3… Caps won the series, 4-2
1995, first round: Caps 5 – Penguins 4… lost the series, 4-3
1996, first round: Caps 6 – Penguins 4… lost the series, 4-2
1998, first round: Caps 3 – Bruins 1… Caps won the series, 4-2
1998, second round: Caps 4 – Senators 2…Caps won the series, 4-1
2001, first round: Caps 1 – Penguins 0… lost the series, 4-2
2003, first round: Caps 3 – Lightning 0… lost the series 4-2
2008, first round: Caps 5 – Flyers 4… lost the series, 4-3
2009, second round: Caps 3 – Penguins 2… lost the series, 4-3

Well, gee, Cheerless…aren’t YOU living up to your name this morning?

“Just tellin’ it like it is, cuz. You know how Caps fans are… we only see the poop, not the puppy.”

Well, Cheerless, you know what today is, don’t you?

“Uh, Friday?”

Yeah, and…

“Uhhhhhhhhhhhh…”

Emancipation Day!

“E-what?”

Well, actually it would be tomorrow, April 16th, but since tomorrow is Saturday, we celebrate it today.

“You got a point or just fishin’ cuz?”

The date on which President Lincoln signed the Compensated Emancipation Act, freeing slaves in the District of Columbia.

“And this has to do with hockey...how?”

It’s the chance for us Caps fans to free ourselves of this negative thinking, cousin.

“Uh-huh…how long you been a Caps fan, cuz?”

…ugh.

Well, the Caps can go a long way to sponging away the trepidation their fans bring to this time of year when they take the ice against the New York Rangers tonight. In Game 1, the Caps out shot (33-25), out-attempted (80-65), out-hit (35-30), out-shot blocked (32-28), and out-face-off’ed (43-37) the Rangers in a 2-1 overtime win on Wednesday. If not for a couple of unfortunate ricochets off the crossbar, the game might have been settled earlier than the 11 o’clock hour (10:51, actually).

Now the object is to do it again.

With only one game in the books, this series doesn’t have much of a personality just yet, but one might look at a game played so close and so close to the vest and wonder what might change in Game 2. Most of those changes, as you might expect, might have to come from the visitors…

-- "25" The Rangers managed only 25 shots on a goalie playing in his first NHL playoff game. They had more shots blocked (32) than they had on net. The Rangers have to make Michal Neuvirth work more.  The Caps have done a fine job so far in limiting those opportunities.

-- "0" Chris Drury is coming back from an injury, and he is for the moment pretty much limited to fourth line duty. But the Rangers really don’t have so many offensive options that they can afford to have him go almost 64 minutes with no shot attempts, as he did on Wednesday.

-- "35" Part of Brandon Dubinsky’s game is doing a lot of the little things effectively. He has to do better than 35 percent on draws (7-for-20 on Wednesday).

-- "16" Does Sean Avery get to don his “16” sweater for this game? That’s the two-edged sword. He could give the Rangers some bite in their lineup, but his antics could bit them in the ass, too.

-- "1" The Rangers had one shot on two power plays in Game 1. Keep that up, and they’ll have to do all their scoring at even strength.

-- "5" Henrik Lundqvist might have allowed only two goals on 33 shots in Game 1, but he can thank his stars for two missed shots – two that hit the crossbar less than 20 seconds apart – for not getting behind early. Part of his problem, if it is one, is that he seemed tethered to no more than five feet from his goal line. His style is a bit unconventional (half butterfly, half old-school), and he tends to play deep anyway. But the Caps had a lot of great opportunities – the two crossbars, a couple of open net looks on cross-ice feeds – that he might have had trouble with playing as deep as he does.

As for the Caps, the biggest takeaway from Game 1, and the thing to watch for in Game 2, is the fact that they did not get frustrated in Game 1 over a scoreless game through more than 40 minutes, nor did they get frustrated when the Rangers got the game’s first goal in the third period. How they played suggested that the makeover to a defensively responsible style was not a regular season thing, only. The Caps trusted their system, plugged away, and ground out a win.

Perhaps they were emancipated from any lingering doubts about whether this works.

Maybe it’s time to emancipate the Rangers of any further hope of winning this series by taking their game and shoving it right back in their faces.

“Cuz, maybe you should be emancipated from ever using the word ‘emancipated’ anymore.”

Don't you have some puppy poop to clean up?


Caps 3 – Rangers 1

Eastern Conference Quarterfinals, Game 1: Capitals 2 - Rangers 1 (OT)

“The first cut is the deepest.”

The Washington Capitals drew first blood against the New York Rangers in their first round playoff matchup, taking a 2-1 overtime decision when Alexander Semin rifled a one-timer past the blocker of Ranger goaltender Henrik Lundqvist 18:24 into overtime. A lot of little things happened to make that goal happen, the kinds of things a team not paying attention to detail doesn’t do. There was Brooks Laich chasing the puck down at the side boards and feeding back to Mike Green at the Rangers’ blue line. From there Green tried to get it deep, but it was blocked down by the Rangers’ Brandon Dubinsky. Jason Arnott made sure Chris Drury couldn’t get the puck out, and the biscuit trickled down to Marc Staal. But Laich circled back into the zone and pressured Staal into a bad clear that Arnott flagged down as he was hugging the boards to prevent the clear. While Laich and Arnott were doing the dirty work along the right wing boards, Alexander Semin circled back from the right wing circle into a void high between the circles. He had an open look when Arnott found him with a pass.  Dan Girardi could not get a stick on Semin’s shot, and Semin had enough of an opening to find the back of the net past Lundqvist’s blocker.

That was the pretty goal of the pair. The ugly one – or the “junk” goal, as Semin described in in the post game – was a case of getting greasy, crowding Lundqvist, and jabbing at the puck until it found the thinnest of holes to squeak over the line. It was Alex Ovechkin doing the jabbing after he carried the puck in on Lundqvist and lost it, fortunately to a spot where Semin could at least get the puck into Lundqvist’s pads to force him to freeze the puck. Lundqvist did not, Ovechkin jabbed, and the Cap had their first goal of the playoffs.

It tied the game because the Rangers got the game’s first marker when Brandon Prust outdueled John Erskine for a puck near the Olympia entrance to the ice and fed Wojtek Wolski behind the net.  From there Wolski found Matt Gilroy steaming down the middle to rip a one timer past Caps goalie Michal Neuvirth. But that would be all the Rangers would get, as Neuvirth stopped 24 of 25 shots in his NHL playoff debut.

Other stuff…

-- The Caps certainly had their chances. Semin hit a crossbar. Arnott hit almost the identical spot on the crossbar moments later, neither puck going in. Nicklas Backstrom had a clean breakaway and was foiled by Lundqvist when Backstrom tried to slide a change of pace backhander through the five hole. Marcus Johansson looked as if he had a wide open net to shoot at and was stopped. Ovechkin broke clean on the left side, but whiffed on a wrist shot when he had Lundqvist down. And all that was in the first two periods. All that accomplished was letting Lundavist off the hook on a night when it looked as if the Caps found holes in his defense.

-- It is really simple what each team wants to do in this series. The Caps want to get pucks to the net, crash, and stuff garbage into the pail. They got a goal that way. But they didn’t do it nearly enough. At the other end, the Rangers want to work behind the goal line, force the Caps to keep their backs to what is going on out front, and find guys open for one timers or put backs. They got a goal that way. On balance, we thought the Rangers were more consistent playing their game than were the Caps.

-- Someday, Marcus Johansson is going to be able to win battles along the boards. The years will add bulk and maturity. But tonight, he looked to be getting pushed around pretty good. But one thing he is doing now that he was not early in the year is carry the puck with authority. He looks as if he is following the arc of Nicklas Backstrom in that regard.

-- I find Brandon Dubinsky a prickly little sh*t that I’d like to plant in the ice. And I wish he was a Cap.

-- If Marian Gaborik has to produce for the Rangers to win this series, he will never get a better chance than he had in this one when Brian Boyle (again, working below the goal line) found him in front, 12 feet in front of Michal Neuvirth with no one around him for 15 feet in any direction. And he shot it right into Neuvirth’s midsection. He scores there, we’re writing a whole other narrative this morning.

-- We talk of “Good Sasha, Bad Sasha” with respect to Alexander Semin. And it was on display tonight – an offensive zone hooking penalty, an assist, and the game-winning goal (“SashaTrick!”...and don’t forget the exclamation point). But “Good Alex, Bad Alex” was on display, too.  Ovechkin got that junk goal to tie the game, then almost gave it back less than two minutes later when he took a run at Brandon Prust and missed just enough not to kill him, but hitting him enough to knock him off his pins and draw a roughing penalty.

-- John Carlson looked like he was wired on Red Bull and espresso. We lost count of how many times he either exploded out of the defensive zone to get the puck moving up ice, or darted into the offensive zone with the puck to lead the rush.

-- Speaking of defense…eight blocked shots. Take a bow, Scott Hannan, if you’re not too sore to do so.

-- And Jeff Schultz had six blocks…it didn’t manage to shut the moron up sitting behind us who kept shouting, “hit him, Schultz, ya sissy!” Hey, did the Rangers score when he was on the ice? No…his defense was just fine.

-- And speaking of blocks, the Rangers had the reputation coming into this series as a team that would pay any price to keep pucks from getting through to Henrik Lundqvist. But it was the Caps who had 32 blocked shots to the Rangers’ 28.

-- Something that might have been lost in the first goal scored by Ovechkin. As he was going to the net, he planted defenseman Dan Girardi like a tulip bulb in front of Lundqvist, taking him out of the play.

-- You might have though Mike Green would get 14-16 minutes tonight, no PK time, and some time on the power play. When he was paired with John Erskine, that looked like the plan. Green finished the night with 26:30 in ice time, and that was without any PK time at all. Four SOGs, four blocked shots, and an assist to go with a plus-1. Nice return.

-- We liked that the Caps had four shots on two power plays. We weren’t as happy that two came from Marco Sturm and the other two from Mike Green. Got to get chances from in close.

-- Liked that the Caps allowed only one SOG on the two power plays they allowed.

-- For what it’s worth, Michal Neuvirth was the only rookie goalie to win tonight. OK, there was only one other (Chicago’s Corey Crawford lost in Vancouver). Neuvirth might have had a more difficult variety of shots faced than did Lundqvist, and he handled himself with spooky calm.

In the end, it is said that for the Rangers to win Henrik Lundqvist has to be their best player. He was that tonight, but he sure looked beaten and beatable on a lot of shots in the first period. Posts saved him twice, and bad stickhandling by the Caps seemed to help him as the Caps lost chances to put quality shots on net. He did have a few sparkling saves, but despite the impressive results (31 saves on 33 shots faced) he’s going to have to “play” better for the Rangers to win.

On the other hand, the Caps cannot allow the Rangers to work their magic below the goal line so persistently and for so many seconds on a possession. They will find someone open if given enough opportunities.

A win is a good thing, but don’t get all fat and happy, Caps fans. In franchise history, the Caps are 4-13 in seven-game series when winning Game 1. Much work remains in this series, and as we all know…

The object is not to win 16 games, but to win one game…16 times.

The Peerless Prognosticator Brings You: Western Conference Round One Prognostos

We’ve done the prognostos for the Caps/Rangers series, and we’ve done them for the rest of the East. What about the rest? Well, here is the West …

Vancouver (1st seed, 54-19-9) vs. Chicago (8th seed, 44-29-9)

Theme: So, there I was on my way to the coronation…

Why Vancouver will win: The object of the game is still outscore your opponent (or conversely, prevent your opponent from outscoring you). Vancouver can score (1st in the league in goals-per-game), and they can prevent teams from scoring (1st in fewest goals allowed per game). They can beat you 5-on-5 (2nd in 5-on-5 scoring ratio); they can beat you on the power play (tops in the league); they can shut down your power play (tied for 2nd in penalty killing). They simply have too many ways to beat a team.

Why Vancouver won’t win: Demons. Since Vancouver reached their only Stanley Cup final in 1994, the Canucks have reached the playoffs ten times. They have a total of five series wins, and in none of those years did they make it past the second round. The thing they have going for them, if you can say that, is that coach Alain Vigneault is three for three in first round tries. That’s not a lot of consolation. And, they’re only playing .500 in April (ok, so it’s 2-2-0).

Canuck on the hot seat: Roberto Luongo. Since joining the Canucks in the 2006-2007 season, Roberto Luongo has not won fewer than 33 games in a season, has not posted a GAA higher than 2.57, has not had a save percentage below .913, and he has 28 shutouts. OK, now about the playoffs…1.77, .941… 2.52, .914… 3.22, .895. Those would be his GAA and save percentages in each of the last three years, each getting worse from one year to the next. And it probably escapes no one’s notice that a lot of that debacle last year came at the hands of the team he is facing in this round.

Why Chicago will win: Nothing beats experience. There is an intangible difference between a contender – even a favorite – that has not yet won a championship, and a club that might not measure up on paper, but who has those rings on their fingers. And there is nothing in Vancouver’s game that Chicago fears. They’ve seen this movie.

Why Chicago won’t win: Timing. The Blackhawks are not exactly coming into this series breathing fire. They actually sort of stumbled in. Dallas losing to Minnesota in a game that could have eliminated Chicago aside, the Blackhawks are 7-6-3 to close the regular season after rolling off an eight-game winning streak in lae February/early March. They’re best might be behind them.

Blackhawk on the hot seat: Corey Crawford. Chicago has a talented defense, but ultimately someone is going to have to stop pucks fired by the top offense in the league. It won’t be Crawford’s baptism in the NHL playoff wars, but it will be close to it. His NHL playoff experience is limited to 16 minutes of one game last spring. He’s had a really nice rookie season. This is a different animal.

A lot of folks are looking at maps of downtown Vancouver plotting where they will plunk down their lawn chairs for the parade. That’s quite a bit of expectation to live up to. And this draw is probably the worst one for the Canucks of the other seven teams in the West making the playoffs. If they get past this round, maybe those maps will come in handy. We’re thinking they won’t.

Chicago in six

San Jose (2nd seed/48-25-9) vs. Los Angeles (7th seed/46-30-6)

Theme: Hey! We’re still here!!

Why San Jose will win: With apologies to Canuck fans, the Sharks might be the hottest team in the West heading into the tournament. They finished 9-2-1 in their last 12 games, five of the wins coming by three or more goals. They were 10-for-30 on the power play (and had power play goals in eight of the 12 games, seven of the first eight of that stretch). Their offense is steamrolling opponents.

Why San Jose won’t win: In those 12 games to close the regular season the Sharks were only 29-for-39 in penalty killing (74.4 percent). Even if you take away the four goals in six tries they allowed in a 6-2 loss at Phoenix in the season’s penultimate game, the 81.8 percent success rate in penalty killing that results isn’t al that hot, either.

Shark on the hot seat: Joe Thornton. It is one thing to be a player whose team falters in the post-season, but a player who performed above and beyond his statistics in those disappointments (Caps fans, see: “Ovechkin, Alex”). Then there is Joe Thornton. He is “Mats Sundin-like” with his ability to put up almost metronomic points-a-game regular seasons (1,001 points in 995 career regular season games). But he has 65 points in 91 career playoff games, and he is a minus-14 in the last 21 playoff games in which he played. It’s not all on Thornton; the Sharks’ recent disappointments have been team efforts. But at 31, the clock is starting to tick loudly on Thornton’s career, and his teams have only five playoff series wins in his five seasons in San Jose.

Why Los Angeles will win: Strength beats strength. San Jose enters this tournament in a tie for the league’s second best power play (with Anaheim). But the Kings have the fourth best penalty kill (85.5 percent). Not only that, they don’t allow a lot of opportunities (tenth lowest number of shorthanded situations faced). The two factors combined so that no team in the NHL allowed fewer power play goals than did the Kings this season.

Why Los Angeles won’t win: The Kings seem to have a timing issue, too. From March 9th through March 29th the Kings went 8-1-1 and cemented their place in the top eight in the West. They did not finish well, however, going 2-4-0 in their last six, with one of the wins coming in a Gimmick against Phoenix. What is more, in what might now look like a statement game, San Jose pasted the Kings, 6-1, on April 4th. Los Angeles might have seen their peak, and it is in their rear view mirror.

King on the hot seat: Drew Doughty. No one could say that defenseman Drew Doughty had a bad year this season, not with an 11-29-40, plus-13 scoring line in 76 games. But no one seems to be spreading his name around as an “inevitable” Norris Trophy winner. Not that his reputation needs much by way of rehabilitation, but he can force himself back into the mix in the discussion of elite defensemen with a good series here against a team that will put pressure on the Los Angeles defense and goaltenders.

If there is a certainty in any series in the first round in either conference, this might be the one. San Jose has too many weapons for the Kings to contend with.

San Jose in five

Detroit (3rd seed/47-25-10) vs. Phoenix (6th seed/43-26-13)

Theme: Ding! Round 2!!

Why Detroit will win: This makes 20 years in a row that the Red Wings have made the playoffs. Mike Babcock has been around as coach for the last five appearances before this season, and he hasn’t lost an opening round since he lost to Edmonton in his first try in 2006. In other words, this is what Detroit does these days – win early playoff rounds. And they have uncommon scoring balance. No player finished with more than 80 points (Henrik Zetterberg had 80), but twenty players finished the season with at least ten points. Detroit did not have a 30-goal scorer, but 13 players had at least ten goals. The Red Wings had three different players with at least ten power play goals; 14 had at least one man advantage marker. Sixteen different Red Wings had at least one game-winning goal. Someone on this team will beat you.

Why Detroit won’t win: You can almost see the chips and cracks in the armor. Nicklas Lidstrom finished in “minus” territory for the first time since Columbus discovered the New World. Henrik Zetterberg is day-to-day with a knee…oops, lower body injury. Pavel Datsyuk played in only 56 games this season. Brian Rafalski in only 63 games. Kris Draper in only 47. The Cup tournament is a grind, played seven games at a time, and one wonders if Detroit has the finish left to make a deep run of it.

Red Wing on the hot seat: Valteri Filppula. He might not get the ink that a Nicklas Lidstrom, a Pavel Datsyuk, or a Henrik Zetterberg gets, but he has been a valuable performer for the Red Wings, especially in the playoffs. He is 15-26-41 in 75 career post-season games, and before this is over he is going to have to perform at that level or better as one of the next generation of Wings to carry on this post-season tradition.

Why Phoenix will win: Familiarity. Last season was the Coyotes’ “happy to be here” moment, reaching the playoffs after a six-year absence from the post-season. And yet, they still took the mighty Red Wings to a seventh game in their opening round matchup. There isn’t the wide-eyed novelty associated with just “making it,” and the Coyotes know they can play with these guys. What is more, the Coyotes went 2-0-2 against the Red Wings in the season series. Taking this a step further, Phoenix can match Detroit in terms of scoring depth. Twenty Coyotes registered at least ten points this season.

Why Phoenix will not win: Phoenix has that point scoring depth, but they really lack a go-to, high-end talent that can turn a game by himself. Shane Doan is the Coyotes’ only 20-goal scorer. And for a team that plays such a system-based, close to the vest style (14th in goal scoring, 13th in fewest goals allowed), they do not have as good a record in one-goal games (21-8-13) as do the Wings (21-7-10).

Coyote on the hot seat: Keith Yandle. Among defensemen in the NHL the top three scorers all come from the Western Conference. Nicklas Lidstrom (second), you’ve no doubt heard of. Lubomir Visnovsky (first), you might have heard of lately as a potential Norris Trophy finalist. But third in scoring among defensemen is Keith Yandle. Oddly enough, he is only one of two defensemen in the top 11 in scoring that does not have a game-winning goal this season (Atlanta’s Tobias Enstrom is the other), and he is in a goal scoring drought over all, having potted only two in his last 30 games after recording nine in his first 52 contests. The ‘Yotes could use some contributions from Yandle, especially since his frequent partner, Derek Morris, will miss Game 1 with an upper body injury.

Detroit is the limousine of the NHL, riding to the playoffs in style, frequenting the exclusive playoff venues every season. Phoenix is the Camry… functional, reliable over the course of the season, will get where it needs to go. But do Camrys show up in the valet parking of the poshest clubs? Like the second, third, or finals round of the Stanley Cup tournament? Didn’t think so.

Detroit in six

Anaheim (4th seed/47-30-5) vs. Nashville (5th seed/44-27-11)

Theme: “Nashville” is just “Anaheim” spelled sideways.

Why Anaheim will win: The playoffs are about playing things close with little margin for error, and Anaheim has the best record in one-goal games in the league (29-10-5). Part of what gives them those one-goal wins is a lethal power play that ranked in a tie for second in the NHL. And part of what makes that power play so good is having the league’s top goal scorer for the regular season (Corey Perry) and the league’s top active career goal scorer (Teemu Selanne). Between them they have 81 total goals and 30 of those on the power play.

Why Anaheim won’t win: We are tempted to say “because they can’t kill penalties,” which is true but there are three playoff teams in the West below them in penalty killing efficiency (San Jose, Chicago, and Phoenix – all below 80 percent for the season), and Nashville has a poor power play. There is a question in goal, however. Jonas Hiller has suffered from vertigo symptoms that limited him to three games since the All Star break (only one of which he played 60 minutes), none since March 24th. That leaves it up to Dan Ellis, who hasn’t played in (or won) a playoff game since 2008 with Nashville, and Ray Emery, who hasn’t played in (or won) a playoff game since 2007 with Ottawa. They’ve done well in relief of Hiller (both with GAAs under 2.40 and save percentages above .915), but this is a different sort of season.

Duck on the hot seat: Cam Fowler. The rookie defenseman came straight to the NHL from last June’s draft and got some early Calder Trophy consideration for the offensive numbers he was putting up from the blue line. But while his offensive numbers shine (10-30-40, second in scoring among rookie defensemen), he is a minus-25 on the season (299th of 303 defensemen dressing in the NHL this season).

Why Nashville will win: You really have to ask yourself that, step back, scratch your chin, and then probably end up saying, “hell if I know.” They are 26th in winning percentage when leading after two periods, 22nd in winning percentage in one-goal games. They are 22nd in offense; their power play is poor (26th in the league; worst among playoff teams). It really comes down to two things – goalie Pekka Rinne, who might be the best goaltender in this tournament, even with Tim Thomas in it, and the fact that the Predators beat the Ducks in three of four meetings this year. Sometimes, a team just has the knack.

Why Nashville won’t win: See above. Even with Rinne, this will be a hard series that has to be played on Nashville’s terms – low scoring and tight checking. Give Rinne a chance to win games. That is a hard way to play when you need four wins, not just one.

Predator on the hot seat: Sergei Kostitsyn. Among players skating in at least 50 games this season, Sergei Kostitsyn has the best shooting percentage (23 goals on 24.7 percent shooting) by far in the NHL (Phoenix’ Lauri Korpikoski is second at 18.4 percent). The other side of that coin is that he takes only 1.2 shots per game. Would those percentage numbers drop if he shot more? Almost certainly. But given Anaheim’s iffy goaltending, it can’t hurt to try.

These teams aren’t altogether different. Anaheim has better scoring, and Nashville has better defense and goaltending, but both are as likely as not to grind out wins. We like Anaheim’s superior playoff pedigree (a number of players from the 2007 Cup team remain), but we really do not like their goaltending at all.

Nashville in seven

OK, there you have it, the Peerless Prognosticator's prognostos for your 2011 Stanley Cup first round series. And as we like to say, “if you’ve read this far…SEEK HELP!”

The Peerless Prognosticator Brings You: Eastern Conference Round One Prognostos

There are seven other series in the first round of the Stanley Cup tournament. You already have our picks for the Caps/Rangers series. Now, for the others in the East…

Philadelphia (2nd seed, 47-23-12) vs. Buffalo (7th seed; 43-29-10)

Theme: Big, bad bullies versus the shifty shrimps with the great goalie.

Why Philly will win: Against a great goalie, it helps to be able to attack him with depth, not allowing him a breather of a shift. The Flyers might have the deepest set of skaters in the NHL, certainly in the East. Eighteen skaters with at least ten points, six with at least 20 goals. They can put a 20-goal guy on the third line (James van Riemsdyk, who has 21) and a ten goal guy on the fourth line (Andreas Nodl, who has 11).

Why Philly won’t win: A lot of attention is being paid to whether Chris Pronger will or won’t dress for this or that game in this series, and truth be told, the Flyers don’t seem the same without him in the lineup. They finished the season 6-4-4 after Pronger went out of the lineup with a broken right hand. It will be a factor and perhaps a force multiplier for a bigger problem. Sergei Bobrovsky has never started a playoff game in goal in North America. He gets the call to start the series. He did not end the season well, going 0-2-2 in his last five appearances with a 3.27 GAA and .892 save percentage.

Flyer on the hot seat: Mike Richards. With Chris Pronger out, Richards takes on a bigger leadership role (one that he might share with Pronger under normal circumstances, even though Richards wears the “C”). He struggled down the stretch, going 2-3-5, minus-3 in his last nine games (over which the Flyers were 3-4-2), and he has a total of four goals in his last 21 games.

Why Buffalo will win: Ryan Miller. The defending Vezina Trophy winner did not start the season well (3-5-2 in his first ten games), but he ended it well, going 5-1-1, 1.90, .937 and two shutouts over his last eight appearances.

Why Buffalo won’t win: Miller suffered an “upper body” injury against Toronto on March 29th and played only 51:48 in his next two appearances (he stopped 28 of 29 shots in doing it). If there is any lingering discomfort, the Flyers will only add to that discomfort with their ability to get production from anywhere in their lineup.

Sabre on the hot seat: Thomas Vanek. The Sabre left wing closed with a rush, going 9-12-21, plus-11 in his last 17 games. He is going to have to keep up that sort of pace to help offset the depth in scoring the Flyers can bring to the series.

Ryan Miller does a better job of holding off the Flyers than Sergei Bobrovsky (or Brian Boucher, who will get significant time in this series) does against Buffalo.

Buffalo in six.

Boston (3rd seed; 46-25-11) vs. Montreal (6th seed; 44-30-8)

Theme: A series that looks better on paper than it is likely to be.

Why Boston will win: Tim Thomas. The unconventional Thomas led the league in GAA (2.00), save percentage (.938) and pitched a shutout in almost one of every six starts he had this season (nine in 55 starts). He had a couple of hiccups down the stretch in allowing three goals to Toronto in a 4-3 Gimmick loss to Toronto and four goals in a 5-3 loss to the Rangers, but even with those bumps he was still 6-1-1 in his last eight appearances with a 1.49 GAA, .949 save percentage and two shutouts, one of them coming against the team he faces in this round.

Why Boston won’t win: Since Thomas got that shutout of Montreal (a 7-0 win on March 24th), the Bruins are 5-3-1, but they have some trouble finding the back of the net. In their last nine games of the season following that win Boston averaged 2.44 goals per game, and their power play was only 3-for-22 (13.6 percent).

Bruin on the hot seat: Nathan Horton. Horton had a solid year in his first season with the Bruins after spending six seasons with Florida. But this is his first NHL post season (his first post-season, in fact, since he was at Oshawa back in 2003). His 26-27-53, plus-29 level of performance during the regular season…does he have that in him with the lights shining a little brighter on him?

Why Montreal will win: The Canadiens seem to have righted a ship that was in danger of taking on too much water to make a splash in the playoffs. In late March they lost three consecutive games, each by shutout (to Boston, Buffalo, and the Caps), but the Habs finished up 4-1-1. Special teams improved down the stretch -- their power play came alive in the last ten days of the season, going 6-for-15 in the last five games (40.0 percent), and the penalty killers are 32-for-34 (94.1 percent) over their last nine games.

Why Montreal won’t win: If you look at those games down the stretch after they were shut out in three straight games, that 4-1-1 record was built on a pile of sand. Only one win came against a playoff team (a 2-1 overtime win over Chicago). They were 2-5-0 in their last seven games against playoff teams. And Carey Price has been like the little girl with the curl lately. When he’s good, he’s very good (he hasn’t allowed more than two goals in a win since December 16th, a total of 20 wins), but when he’s not, he’s bad (of his 19 losses in regulation over the same period he allowed more than three goals 11 times). That’s a hard formula to get to four wins in a seven-game series.

Canadien on the hot seat: Scott Gomez. The Canadien center is the guy you remember in high school – quarterback of the football team, class president, prom king, valedictorian. Then you see him at the ten year reunion and ask, “dude, what happened? You let yourself go.” Gomez averaged 17-48-65 in six years with New Jersey (with a 33-goal year thrown in there) to start his career. This year, 7 goals and a minus-15 (worst plus-minus on the club). He hasn’t had a goal since February 5th, a 29-game drought. Even with that, he has it in him to perform at this level (he had 14 points in 19 playoff games last season), but he has to show it in this series.

It will be a competitive series, but frankly, neither team is playing well enough to go on a deep run. Thomas has more saves in him than does Price.

Boston in six

Pittsburgh (4th seed; 49-25-8) versus Tampa Bay (5th seed; 46-25-11)

Theme: Sidney, Sidney, wherefore art thou, Sidney?

Why Pittsburgh will win: There might not be a more resilient, nor a better coached team at the moment than the Penguins. Dan Bylsma has gotten just about everything he could out of a lineup lacking two of the top five talents in hockey (Yevgeni Malkin’s consistent application of that talent – or lack thereof – notwithstanding). It says a lot about Bylsma’s coaching that Sidney Crosby finished the season as the Penguins’ leading scorer by miles (66 points to Kris Letang’s 50), despite Crosby playing in only 41 games.

Why Pittsburgh won’t win: The object is getting to “four” first. And to do that a club needs some semblance of balance in scoring and defense. There are nights when one has to bail the other out. It is hard to see how an offense that lacks anything resembling a go-to guy (even Jordan Staal, who played in only 42 games, would not be a “60-point” player over a full season at his scoring pace) cobbles together four wins. No team in the first round puts more pressure on its defense and goaltending than do the Penguins.

Penguin on the hot seat: Chris Kunitz. Kunitz led all Penguins not named “Crosby” in goals (23), despite playing in only 66 games. He is probably the poster boy for the Penguins at the moment – a hard-working, tough as nails cuss who, if you are an opponent, hate to play against, and if you are a fan of the opposition, simply hate. But with all that grit, he produces…except lately. Kunitz finished the regular season with one goal in his last eight games, the wrong time to go cold on a team that has to squeeze goals from all over the lineup.

Why Tampa Bay will win: They average almost three goals a game, and their power play hummed along at more than 20 percent for the season. They are also coming into the tournament on a roll, having gone 7-1-0 to close the regular season. Their oft-maligned defense allowed only 14 goals in those eight games (four of them coming in their only loss, a 4-2 loss to Buffalo).

Why Tampa Bay will not win: Goaltending. Dwayne Roloson had respectable numbers with the Lightning (18-12-4, four shutouts, 2.56, .912), but his save percentage was actually better in the 20 games he played with the Islanders (.916) to start the season. He had a memorable playoff performance in 2006 with Edmonton, leading the oilers to the finals while compiling a 12-5, 2.33, .927 mark. But does he have that in him? The Tampa Bay offense carries their goaltending more than most teams competing for the Stanley Cup, which relieves some of the burden. The break Roloson gets is in the opponent for this round, who has to be on top of its game to cobble together goals in the absence of high-end offensive skill.

Lightning on the hot seat: Steven Stamkos. Has the third-year player run out of gas? On February 6th, Stamkos scored his 40th goal of the season in his 54th game, putting him on a pace for 61 for the season. He finished with five in his last 28 games (a 15-goal pace). If the early-season Stamkos shows up, Pittsburgh doesn’t have a counter-punch, unless Crosby returns and steps right into his mid-season form. If the late-season Stamkos is what the Lightning get, Pittsburgh can cobble together enough goals to win.

Tampa Bay looks a little bit too much like last year’s Caps to really make a dent in the playoffs, but Pittsburgh is just so dented all over the lineup. Before it’s over, this might be the most compelling series in the first round, a contest of wills – Tampa’s flash and youthful exuberance against Pittsburgh’s battle-tested and cobbled-together lineup. Bylsma would get our vote for the Jack Adams Award, but we have a hard time seeing how he gets his team to “four” in this one (unless there is a miracle involving the number “87”). Over the last decade or so, the first round in the East has almost always had a lower seeded team (or three) jump a higher seeded team. We have two in this year's edition, and this is the other one.

Tampa Bay in seven


And there you have it...Round One. As always, do not use these picks for cash wagering. Save your money for Powerball.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Eastern Conference Quarterfinals: Capitals vs. Rangers

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Welcome, dear reader, to the first, last, and only prognosticatorial preview you need or want for the first round matchup of the Washington Capitals and the New York Rangers. We are here with our crack staff of researchers, analysts, and pundits to bring you every meaningful nugget of information you’ll need when you sit down to worry yourself silly over whether the Washington Capitals can escape the first round of the playoffs for only the ninth time in the 36-year history of the franchise.

What a difference a year – and a pistol-whipping in the first round last year – makes. Last year, we said this about the Caps’ first round series against the Montreal Canadiens:

“There are no sure things when it comes to the Caps, but in the end Montreal is coming into the series with a hope (that they get a lot of power play chances) and a prayer (that [Jaroslav] Halak finds his inner Dryden). It will not be nearly enough against a team with many more weapons.”

Well, Montreal did not get a lot of power play chances (they had 30 in seven games to the Caps’ 33), but Halak did find his inner Dryden to become merely the latest “hot goalie” to send the Caps home frustrated. And that serves as ominous foreshadowing to this series, but we will get to that in a bit. First things first.

The View from 30,000 Feet

The Caps finished with four more wins overall, eight more wins in regulation and overtime, and 14 more standings points than their opponent in this series. If you look at the overall numbers, though, you would wonder how that came to be:

There appears to be little difference between the teams in terms of rankings. Both are middle-third in terms of scoring rankings, both are top-five in preventing goals. Both are efficient, if not especially outstanding in 5-on-5 play. Both have had issues on their respective power plays. If there is a bit of daylight between these teams, the Caps are among the elite penalty killing squads in the NHL this year (how many of you thought I would type THAT sentence this season?), while the Rangers are merely good in that regard.

The Caps have also shown themselves to be the most adept team in the NHL in dealing with adversity, to the extent you measure such a thing as falling behind first. It was the second consecutive season in which the Caps finished first in winning percentage when allowing the first goal, the third straight year in which they finished in the top-five, and the fourth straight in which they finished in the top ten. If there is a smudge on that record that Caps fans might beware of, it is that the Caps have had so many opportunities to polish that record this season. They allowed the first goal 47 times. Only Toronto, Colorado, Edmonton, and the New York Islanders had it happen more often. It should not escape anyone’s notice that none of those teams made the playoffs.

The Rangers, on the other hand are both symmetrical in that regard (scoring the first goal 41 times, allowing the first goal 41 times) and reliable in their outcomes (score first, they win; trail first, they lose…pretty much like most NHL teams).

The takeaway here is that if the Rangers score first, it isn’t a dire situation for the Caps (although the Rangers did score first in three of the four games in the season series). If the season as a whole is a guide, the Rangers might not be as resilient if the Caps score first.

Special Teams

There is a number not included in that table above that would come leaping off the page had it been there:

257

That is the number of times the New York Rangers have found themselves shorthanded this season, third fewest in the NHL and lowest among all Eastern Conference playoff teams. Compare that with this set of numbers:

27-3-4

That is the Caps’ record in which they score at least one power play goal. This is the fault line on which this series is going to be decided – the Caps ability to get power play opportunities (and the Rangers’ ability to avoid providing them) and convert on those they do get.

These clubs are really almost indistinguishable in other goal scoring/goal prevention respects. In the most common side-versus-side situations, the Caps have scored 185 goals at 5-on-5 and 5-on-4, the Rangers have scored 194. Goals allowed – the Caps have allowed 173 at 5-on-5 and 4-on-5, while the Rangers have allowed 170. So here, the Caps power play versus the Rangers ability to avoid them, is where the differences are stark. The Caps have huge success in games in which they score power play goals, and the Rangers are adept at preventing those opportunities. If you are looking at where this series is going to be won or lost, this is where you might pay closest attention.

The Series

It is tempting to take a look back at the season series to divine nuggets of wisdom with respect to how well these teams match up against one another. But this has been an odd season series, even by Capitals/Rangers standards. For the Caps, it might have been four different seasons instead of four different games.

Game 1, a 5-3 Capitals win on November 9th, might be characterized as “Old Caps” in that the score harkened back to games the Caps played last year of a more high-scoring nature. But it was odd in that two Ranger goals were scored by Brian Boyle (who had never scored more than four in any season previously; he finished with 21 this season) and one by Derek Boogaard, who had last scored a goal when Pangaea broke apart. Brooks Laich had two goals – his only two-goal game of the season. Not a lot to take away from that other than if Brian Boyle is a goal-scoring force in this series, the Caps are in trouble. And if Brooks Laich is a goal-scoring force, Caps fans can think about a second-round opponent.

Game 2, a 7-0 blowout for the Blueshirts on December 12th. Again, you think Brandon Prust, who scored the first goal in that game, is going to be a factor in this series? If he is, well, golf is nice this time of year. That game actually started tame, a 1-0 Ranger lead on Prust’s goal in the first 20 minutes. But then the Rangers got one in the first minute of the second, then two more before the period was five minutes old. Then they got a shorthanded goal…from a defenseman (Marc Staal). The Caps could take solace that it wasn’t Staal’s first shortie of his career. It wasn’t even his first shorthanded this goal this season. That came against Pittsburgh on November 15th. Big deal. Not even Alex Ovechkin swapping fists with Brandon Dubinsky could save this disaster. Oh, and don’t forget, it was caught in living color for the HBO cameras for the 24/7 series, for f**k’s sake (points to those who get the Ovechkin reference there).

At least the Caps held the Rangers to one goal in Game 3. Trouble is, they only got one of their own and couldn’t make it stand up when the Rangers tied things with less than seven minutes left in regulation. Artem Anisimov scored on a trick shot for the Rangers to get the second standings point, but even the silver lining for the Caps – that rookie goalie Braden Holtby allowed only one goal on 29 shots – isn’t a takeaway from that one. Holtby is getting ready to lead the Hershey Bears into the Calder Cup playoffs.

Game 4 was another stinker, a 6-0 blowout on Verizon Center ice. And the goal scorers – Steve Eminger (who might not get a sweater in this playoff series) credited with the game winner, that Boyle fellow again, and Erik Christensen had two (part of a four-point night). Where did the Rangers find these guys? It was also the last game Mike Green played in the regular season, the victim of a hit by Derek Stepan that left him with a concussion or an upper body injury, depending on your choice of news source.

The takeaway from that last game and the series for the Rangers is that the Rangers’ offense is opportunistic. They spread it around, too, with five 20-goal scorers. The problem is that one of them – Ryan Callahan – is out with a broken ankle suffered in typical Ranger fashion, blocking shots. That will leave quite a hole.

The takeaway for the Caps in this series is the last game. It might have been the worst game the Caps played all year (even in the 7-0 loss at Madison Square Garden in December was largely the result of an early second-period avalanche of goals – those things happen from time to time). The Caps would go 16-3-1 to finish the season from there, however, and lose only one game in regulation in which they scored a goal, that coming in a 3-2 loss in Detroit (a 2-0 loss to Ottawa and a season-ending 1-0 loss to Florida being the other losses in regulation).

Competition

Since the 6-0 ambush on February 25th, the Caps have that 16-3-1 record. But more than that, they are 6-1-0 against teams in the Stanley Cup tournament in that stretch. The Rangers are 11-7-1 over the same stretch of games, 7-4-0 against teams in the playoffs.

Goaltending

We’ve already covered Henrik Lundqvist, and you might have read our opinion on who the Caps should start in net. We’ll leave those pieces speak for themselves (noting, of course, that it will be Michal Neuvirth getting the call for the Caps).

Coaching

At first glance, two more different coaches you won’t find than the Capitals’ Bruce Boudreau and the Rangers’ John Tortorella. The volcanic Tortorella might have cost his team the first round series in the 2009 playoffs against the Caps when he decided (or impulsively) had fun with beverage containers. But his team this season has his personality – scrappy, gritty, with a look that might suggest, “yeah, I’ll have another helping of nails and wood screws…keep ‘em comin’.”

Boudreau on the other hand, is demonstrative, flamboyant (at least to the extent of his preferred way of running a hockey team with a press-offense), and by appearances a lot more sociable. But he has changed the personality of his team to instill a pride in protecting its own end of the ice, a change that comes from drawing a bright line all the way back to the 7-0 pasting the Caps took at MSG in December. Since then the Caps have allowed barely two goals per game (2.02 to be exact).

Much might be made of whether Boudreau has the in-game capacity to adjust on the fly, but given where we think this game is going to be decided, we think that for the Caps the important piece of coaching could come in terms of whether Boudreau has found something in film to discover a new or more effective sort of wrinkle on the power play to exploit what weaknesses the Rangers might have.

Players you expect to do well…and had better

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Let’s face it, the voices only get louder from here if Ovechkin doesn’t at least go deep into a Stanley Cup tournament...does he have what it takes? Fair or not, that’s the price that comes with being the Captain and being (depending on which city you live in) one of the top five players in the game. Lost in the noise is that Ovechkin is 20-20-40, plus-14 in 28 career playoff games. He hasn’t shrunk from the spotlight. He’s going to have to dominate it in this series.

New York: Marian Gaborik

Ryan Callahan was the sort of heart and soul player that embodied Rangers hockey this season. Gaborik, not so much. He missed 20 games this season, but a bigger problem is that he doesn’t have a goal in his last nine games and does not have a goal in his last six playoff games (all with Minnesota). If those streaks continue, the Rangers don’t have a lot of other options on offense.

Players you might not think of as possible heroes…

Washington: Matt Hendricks

Matt Hendricks might be remembered more for the bloody eye and stitched cheek he sustained in a fight in the December game against the Rangers (captured in grisly color for the HBO 24/7 series), but he also has two of the Caps’ six goals in the season series, and he has nine hits in the series. He can be the sort of productive fireplug to counter the Rangers’ productive feistiness.

New York: Artem Anisimov

A player of considerable offensive skill, the worry here is that Artem Anisimov, who has only one game of playoff experience in the NHL, will discover his clutch game in this series. The potential is there – he improved his goal scoring from 12 last season to 18 this season. But he is also oh-for-his-last-nine games in goal scoring. Caps fans will hope that whole clutch thing surfaces next year.

In the end, we are thinking a little too much is being made of the season series between these teams in that the four games were very distinct and separate in terms of the takeaways. Except for Ranger wins, there wasn’t a consistent theme in the last three that says, “yes, the Rangers are better in this area.” Save one. Henrik Lundqvist. We think this series boils down to the Caps solving Lundqvist (who is quite good enough without having to discover his inner Dryden) enough – specifically with goals scored from in close on power plays. If the Caps can do that dirty work, they win. If they don’t, they don’t. And with Lundqvist having carried the Rangers on his inflated chest protector over the last 26 games, the matter becomes one of whether he has at least four more wins in him or not. Guess what we think the answer to that question is.

Caps in five

The King's the Thing

A lot of folks might agree at this point that the Capitals/Rangers first round playoff matchup is going to boil down to one player – Ranger goalie Henrik Lundqvist. In three starts against the Caps this season, King Henrik is 2-1-0, 1.34, .955, with two shutouts. He has stopped the last 67 shots he has faced off Capitals’ sticks this season. Last spring, the Caps were “Halak’ed” in the last three games of the first round playoff series against Montreal, as Jaroslav Halak put the Canadiens on his back and stopped almost everything the Caps threw at him to allow Montreal to win a series they trailed three games to one.  This year, the Caps could find themselves “King’ed” by Lundqvist. He certainly has the chops to pull off such an achievement, but his season numbers against the Caps aside, which Lundqvist shows up in this series is key.

“Which Lundqvist,” you ask? Well, consider that with the injury sustained by backup goaltender Martin Biron back in February, Lundqvist was forced by the Rangers’ uncertain playoff chances to play in the last 26 games of the season. His performance was nothing short of heroic, to the extent you can use that term in sports. In those 26 games, Lundqvist had what might be looked at as an unimpressive 15-10-1 mark, but he was 9-3-1 down the stretch. He also finished those 26 games with a 2.16 goals against average, a .924 save percentage, and four shutouts. You would have to say he met the challenge and begins the playoffs at the top of his game.

Or can you? Embedded in that 26-game run of excellence, there is the matter of his last five games. But let’s back up a bit. Before those last five games, Lundqvist had a run of four contests in which he surrendered a total of two goals on 113 shots and pitched two shutouts, going 3-0-1 in the process. It might have been the pinnacle of his season. But after that – in his last five games to finish the regular season – he has gone 3-2-0, 2.96, .899.

Has the pressure and physical toll that goes with 26 straight starts for a team fighting for its playoff life chipped enough away from his performance level to make him merely mortal as the playoff series against the Caps begins? You might get a clue early. Lundqvist has three wins in his last three tries in Game 1 of the first round of the playoffs (against Atlanta, New Jersey, and Washington).

Which Henrik will show up? On the answer to that question, the Caps’ season might turn.

Two Goalies...One Net

The problem with starting a season with two young, promising goaltenders is that both will fail to measure up to their respective potential. A team can address that situation by finding a solution in the trade market in February.

Well, that’s one problem with having two promising goalies. The other is that both play up to their potential when they are in the lineup. You don’t take the safe out of finding a solution at the deadline, because you don’t need one. But what you are left with is that when the time comes to make a decision between two young, promising goaltenders who have played well, there isn’t much separation between them to give you a clear-cut basis to make a decision.

And so we have Exhibits A and B as an illustration of the second problem – Michal Neuvirth and Semyon Varlamov. Caps fans have their favorites, be he “Neuvy” or “Varly,” but the time for a decision on who to turn to in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals has come, and sentiment isn’t an option in making that choice. So, who is it?

The 100,000-foot numbers

Neuvirth has more wins (27) and more standings points per appearance (1.23) than does Varlamov (11 and 1.00). Varlamov has a better GAA (2.23) and save percentage (.924) than does Neuvirth (2.49 and .913). You could argue that it is winning that matters, and that Neuvirth has done that more often per appearance than Varlamov. However, you might say that Neuvirth has been the beneficiary of better luck from other factors (goal support, quality of opponent faced) than Varlamov. The usual numbers are debating points in a bar argument, not a means to decide.

Winning!

Neuvirth has not lost more than two games in regulation consecutively this season, and that happened twice (December 11th and 18 against Colorado and Boston, the other being February 8th and 14th against San Jose and Phoenix). On the other hand, he has four streaks of at least four wins in a row this season, the latest broken last night in a game with little meaning in the larger picture for the Caps.

On the other hand, Varlamov has only two streaks of consecutive wins this season – a four-game streak in late November/early December and a three game streak that ended with the Winter Classic win over Pittsburgh. Those two streaks account for seven of Varlamov’s 11 wins this season.

Breakdown by Period

There is a train of thought that suggests that Michal Neuvirth closes out games effectively. His numbers to not hold up to scrutiny on that score. If you look at his goals against average and save percentage by period, it breaks down as follows:

1st period: 2.73/.906
2nd period: 2.25/.925
3rd period: 2.44/.908
Overtime: 1.22/.960

While Neuvirth has not had the kind of third period folks might have assumed he had, he was lights out in overtime. That overtime record is rather remarkable. He lost only one game in overtime this season (that against Florida, a 4-3 loss on January 11th). In the other 11 overtime games in which he played, he either won in overtime or got the Caps to the Gimmick phase. One goal on 25 shots in overtime is rather impressive.

The flip side is that Neuvirth has been a comparatively slow starter in games. His worst GAA comes in the first period (2.73) as well as his worst save percentage (.906). The Caps have the league’s best record when trailing first. In some respects, it is a good thing they do, because they have been getting some less than top-notch goaltending early in games from Neuvirth.

Varlamov has had a different sort of performance by period:

1st period: 1.18/.958
2nd period: 3.00/.911
3rd period: 2.23/.911
Overtime: 7.81/.800

You could almost think of it as a mirror image of Neuvirth’s. Varlamov has been very efficient to open games, allowing only ten first period goals all season and shutting teams out in the first frame 19 times in 26 tries. One of the curiosities in his record, though, is in facing so few shots in the third period. On a per-60 minute basis, what he faced in the third period this season works out to a less-than-25 shots per 60 minutes rate. And his third period performance has not been comforting lately. Seven goals allowed on the last 38 shots faced in the third period (.816 save percentage) over five appearances.

That overtime mark stands out somewhat, as well, given the nature of the season on which the Caps are about to embark. Five times Varlamov has gone to an overtime session this season, he has allowed the winning goal in three of them. It is a small group of games to select from, but it is what we have this season. It is not necessarily confidence-inspiring.

Wake-Up Call

Both Neuvirth and Varlamov have had grisly games against the Rangers this season. Neuvirth allowed six goals on 28 shots in a 6-0 loss to New York on February 25th. Since then, however, Neuvirth is 9-2-0 in 12 appearances with a 2.16 GAA and .925 save percentage with a shutout.

Varlamov allowed seven goals on 20 shots in a 7-0 loss to the Rangers on December 12th. Since then he is 7-5-5 in 18 appearances with a 2.03 GAA and .932 save percentage with one shutout. Sometimes, a talented youngster needs a kick in the backside sort of reality check, and those two games against the Rangers might have served that purpose for each of them.

Post Season Competition

Although Neuvirth has appeared in many more games this season than has Varlamov (48 to 27), they have similar numbers of decisions against playoff teams in the Eastern Conference – Neuvirth has 12 decisions against such teams, and Varlamov has 11 decisions. And here, there is separation between the two:

Neuvirth: 7-3-2, 2.93, .900, 2 SO
Varlamov: 5-3-3, 2.09, .929, 2 SO

Varlamov has come up bigger against the tougher competition, although he does not have as much to show for it in terms of wins and losses. And, he has played better against a wider range of potential playoff opponents, having a season save percentage of at least .949 against four of the seven other Eastern playoff teams. On the other hand, Neuvirth has shined against Pittsburgh (2-0-1 with a .977 save percentage) but struggled against Boston (.810), the Rangers (.839), and Philadelphia (.882). Again, we are talking about small numbers of events here, perhaps one or two games against any single opponent, but overall Varlamov has done a better job against the class of playoff eligibles than has Neuvirth. Of course, each had their own disastrous game against the Caps’ first round opponent, Varlamov allowing seven to the Rangers in a single game and Neuvirth allowing six in a single game.

So, who is it going to be? Michal Neuvirth might be the Capitals’ most valuable player for the way he stepped in and stepped up to start the season and get the Caps off on the right foot after their disappointing early exit last spring. Semyon Varlamov struggled with health issues that limited him to 27 appearances, but in those 27 appearances he allowed more than two goals only eight times, only four times in 18 appearances since he was lit up for those seven goals against the Rangers in December.

Among the concerns are Neuvirth’s starts in games (that .906 save percentage and goals allowed 29 times in 47 first periods played this season) and Varlamov’s finishes (.911 save percentage in the third period and .800 in overtime).

Let us be clear here. There is no “bad” choice to be made. The Caps do not have, as one wag put it, “legitimately below-average goaltending.” Spin or massage the numbers all you want, the object of the exercise is to keep pucks out of the net, and both Neuvirth and Varlamov have done just that, so far. But the object of the exercise now is to win one game four times and repeat that four times over the next two months. Which goalie gives the Caps a better chance to win one game, given the opponent and the circumstances?

All things equal – and that really comes down to health (Varlamov’s in particular) – Varlamov brings just a little more to the table than does Neuvirth. He has a better save percentage at both even strength (.930 to .922) and defending the power play (.892 to .885), and he has had somewhat better numbers against stiffer competition. He has been just a little better down the stretch leading up to the playoffs. The luxury the Caps have that other teams (particularly the Rangers, who started Henrik Lundqvist 26 straight times to close the season) do not is that they have a credible number two guy who can perform at a playoff level. Both have performed at that level down the stretch. And that is why there really is no “bad” choice to be made here. But that choice, by a slim margin, should be Semyon Varlamov.

Ask Not For Whom The Puck Tolls

In eleven seasons since the NHL went to a six-division format, at least one lower seed has defeated a higher seed in the first round of the Eastern Conference side of the Stanley Cup tournament:

2010: MTL over WAS; BOS over BUF; PHI over NJD
2009: CAR over NJD
2008: NJD over NYR; PHI over WAS
2007: NYR over ATL
2006: none
2004: MTL over BOS
2003: none
2002: OTT over PHI; MTL over BOS
2001: BUF over PHI; PIT over WAS; TOR over OTT
2000: PIT over WAS
1999: BOS over CAR; BUF over OTT; PIT over NJD

Chances are, one of Washington, Philadelphia, Boston, or Pittsburgh is going to fall in Round 1.  So...who will it be?

A NO-point night -- Game 82: Panthers 1 - Caps 0

The Panthers won.  No one got hurt for the Caps.  Caps face Rangers in the first round.

That's pretty much it.

What...you were expecting analysis after that?!

Never...

Ed Frankovic asked via Twitter whether if the Rangers did not make the playoffs, would it be the first time ever that all three new three New York area teams missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs since the Devils joined the New York area NHL franchises.  As a matter of fact, it would be the first time...

With the outcome uncertain at this hour as to the Rangers' chances, there is still a chance that the New York area will be represented in the Stanley Cup playoffs.  And there is a chance they will not...for the first time in quite some time and the first time since the Devils joined the mix in the New York metropolitan area.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Caps at Panthers, April 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

Uh, cuz? Where’s Peerless??

He’s taking a maintenance day to get ready for the playoffs?

What’s a “maintenance day,” Fearless?

That’s when your team has clinched all it’s going to clinch, and you get to sit home and eat Doritos while the scrubs write the blog.

And we’re the scrubs?

Well, for tonight, Cheerless.

Doesn’t seem fair.

Why is that?

I could go for some Doritos.

Well, we’ve got work to do first. Let’s see. Peerless usually starts off with some lame intro that is supposed to be funny or informative. OK, let’s see… Says here that there are more than three million people in Florida aged 65 and older.

What’s funny about that, cuz?

Picture them playing hockey…

Yeah, that is funny. They'd look like the Florida Panthers.

Well, not quite that funny. Actually, it has been a rather sad season for the folks playing professional hockey in south Florida this year. It all comes to a merciful end tonight.

Hey, do that table thing Peerless does…

Oh, yeah. Here’s how they compare to the Caps:

Doesn’t look good, cuz…

That’s because it isn’t Cheerless. The Panthers don’t score, don’t compete well at 5-on-5, have a really bad power play, they’ve lost ten in a row (0-7-3), and since January 15th are 8-20-10.

So, you gonna do those player previews?

Nah, Peerless did them for the game last Wednesday, and it hasn’t changed much.

Yeah, well at least the Panthers have two 40-point scorers who will play in this game.

Yup. David Booth got a goal in that Caps game on Wednesday to hit 40 points, and Mike Santorelli had a goal, too. Then Santorelli had a goal and an assist against Tampa Bay last night…

In another loss.

Yes, in another loss, to hit 41 points.

But they’re a combined minus-48, cuz.

That’s one reason they’re so bad, Cheerless.

What about the Caps?

Well, with the Eastern Conference title now in hand, this is probably a game the Caps just as soon would rather be cancelled. But the league frowns on that sort of thing, and they’ve got to ice a team. The mystery is in wondering just who gets the night off. John Carlson might be getting that night off. Jason Arnott, too. Perhaps Scott Hannan.

But there will be 18 skaters and two goalies dressing for the Caps, won’t there, Fearless?

That there will, Cheerless. And there might even be a milestone or two to be had among them. For instance…

-- If Alex Ovechkin dresses and gets two power play goals, it will make it an even 100 power play goals for his career. If he gets one, he will break his tie with Mike Gartner for second all-time on the Caps power play goal-scoring list. Both currently have 98.

-- If Ovechkin finishes tonight at least plus-1 he will pass Scott Stevens on the all-time Caps plus-minus list (both are currently plus-88 for their careers with the Caps). If Nicklas Backstrom does no worse than minus-1 he will keep his hold on second on that list (Backstrom is currently plus-90)…unless Ovechkin finishes ahead of him.

-- If Alexander Semin plays and records two goals and no assists, he will finish the regular season with the somewhat odd career to date line of 178 goals and 178 assists. It would also mean he finishes with his fourth 30-plus goal season in the last five.

-- If Mike Knuble gets a pair of goals, and Olli Jokinen gets none in his final game of the season, Knuble will pass Jokinen for 27th place in career goals among active players.

-- If Jason Chimera should pot two goals, it would make 100 for his career.

-- If Matt Hendricks should be whistled for at least five minutes in penalties, it will make 200 PIMs for his career. If he gets a goal, he will be the ninth Caps to hit the ten-goal mark this season.

-- If Boyd Gordon gets a point tonight, it will make for 19 Caps with at least ten points this season. If ether Jason Arnott or Marco Sturm get three, they would join that club, too.

-- If Tyler Sloan gets a jersey, it will be his 100th NHL game.

-- If Ovechkin scores in overtime, he will take over the franchise record in overtime goals scored in a season. Mike Green currently holds the record with three overtime markers. If he gets the game-winner (in overtime or otherwise), he will finish with the second highest number of game winners scored in a season (Peter Bondra had 13 in 1997-1998). He is currently tied for second on that list with Mike Gartner (both with 11, Gartner having done it in 1984-1985), Ovechkin having now done it twice, the other time being in 2007-2008.

-- Seven different Caps have shorthanded goals this season. None of them, though, have more than one.

-- If Michal Neuvirth gets the call in goal tonight and shuts out the Panthers, it will make five shutouts for the season. That will tie him for second in franchise history for shutouts in a season (currently shared between Olaf Kolzig, who did it three times, and Don Beaupre), and it would break the tie he now has with Jim Carey for shutouts by a Capitals rookie.

-- If Semyon Varlamov sits out tonight’s game, he will end the year with the highest save percentage in Caps history (.924, besting Olaf Kolzig’s .920 in 1997-1998). If he plays and faces 30 shots, he can allow as many as four goals and still finish on top in save percentage for a season. Florida hasn’t scored four goals in a game since their last win… on St. Patrick’s Day.

-- In the “close, but no cigar” category, were Varlamov to get the call in goal tonight and win a 1-0 decision in a Gimmick, he would finish the season with a 2.14 GAA. Jim Carey holds the club record of 2.13…

…unless you count the goalie who isn’t here. Fourteen games (12 starts) isn’t a lot to go on, but Braden Holtby ended his season with a GAA of 1.79 and a save percentage of .934. Both would be team records for a season were he to qualify.

Hey, cuz…can we go now?

You in a hurry, Cheerless?

Yeah, I don’t want Peerless to scarf down all the Doritos before I get some.

Cheerless, you’re about as bright as a bowl of bean dip.

Hey, can we stop at the store and get some?

…yeesh.

Caps 4 – Panthers 1

A TWO-point night -- Game 81: Caps 5 - Panthers 2

The Caps made it four wins in a row tonight with a workmanlike 5-2 win over the Florida Panthers.  The last regular season home game for the Caps lacked flash, but meat and potatoes is what this team does these days, and the Caps served up portions of both, getting a lead with a suddenly effective power play and getting solid goaltending from Semyon Varlamov to put the Panthers in their place.

The Caps were off and running less than two minutes into the game when Mike Knuble sent Kanoobie into a frenzy, converting a feed from the left wing boards off the stick of Brooks Laich for an early power play goal. Then they got one in the dying moments of the first period when Nicklas Backstrom played a little bit of hide-and-seek behind the Panthers’ net. Giving goalie Scott Clemmensen the impression he was going to take the puck around behind the net, Backstrom caught Clemmensen peeking and fed Jason Chimera for the goal on the short side as Clemmensen was looking around the far side of the net.

In the second period, Sean Collins got the third goal of the evening when an Alex Ovechkin pass intended for Nicklas Backstrom clicked off a Panther skate on the way through and into open ice. Collins was trailing the play down the middle and was in just the right spot to collect the puck and lean into one, ramming the puck off the pipe and behind Clemmensen for his second NHL goal.

Matt Hendricks scored his ninth of the year when he was given time to write a novel at the post to the left of goalie Scott Clemmensen. Boyd Gordon found him from behind the Panther net, and with defenseman Clay Wilson more or less just watching, as opposed to defending, Hendricks chipped the puck past Clemmensen for goal number four for the evening.

Florida got one when David Booth converted a Sergei Samsonov feed for a power play goal with just over six minutes left, and Mike Santorelli bunted a pass from Samsonov just over the goal line with 91 seconds left, but Alex Ovechkin put an end to any thoughts of a miracle comeback when he took a feed from Nicklas Backstrom for an empty netter with 12 seconds left to seal the Caps’ 48th win of the year.

Other stuff…

-- Florida out-attempted the Caps, 33-11, in the first period. They had more shots (18), more missed shots (eight), and more shots blocked (seven) than the Caps had shots on goal (six).

-- The Caps’ third goal came on the sort of play that plagued the Caps last season. David Booth was at the offensive blue line for the Panthers because defenseman Jason Garrison tried to jump up into the play along the left wing boards. Booth, covering the left point, had the puck and tried to make a pass across the zone. He was rather lazy about it, sending the puck softly across to a spot already vacated by a backing-up Mike Weaver. The puck settled on Alex Ovechkin’s stick, and Ovechkin started the play the other way. It might have been just another harmless mistake, but Jack Skille was slow getting back to cover Sean Collins, and when Ovechkin’s pass attempt hit a Panther skate and ricocheted to Collins, he was wide open for the shot from the high slot.

-- When Matt Hendricks scored from the doorstep in the third period, it tied his career best of nine goals, set last year with Colorado.

-- With a three-point night, Ovechkin is 8-15-23, plus-11 in his last 16 games.

-- With a two-assist night, Nicklas Backstrom is 1-9-10, plus-5 in his last eight games.

-- Brooks Laich extended his points streak to five games, his longest of the season. He is 0-7-7 over that span.

-- Two power play goals tonight makes five in nine chances over the last three games. It is the third time this season that the Caps have power play goals in three consecutive games.

-- The power play goal for Knuble was his second in three games and his fourth goal overall in his last four games. He has nine goals in his last 12 games (three of them on the power play).

-- The win in regulation broke a streak of four consecutive games in which the Caps were taken to extra time.

-- After getting 18 shots in the first period, Florida had only 15 over the last 40 minutes.

-- Lost in the talk about Alex Ovechkin’s drop in goals scored this season is that with two assists tonight he has seven helpers in his last six games and is fifth in the league in assists.

-- Jason Chimera’s goal made it eight Caps with at least ten. Matt Hendricks got one to put him one away from joining the double digit club.

-- The Caps had a rather “meh” night in the circle. They were 4-for-15 in offensive zone faceoffs. Brooks Laich and Boyd Gordon made up for that at the other end, though. They were a combined 11-for-13 on defensive zone draws.

-- John Erskine…four hits, six blocked shots. He is another underreported story this season – a lot of solid play from a guy you might not have expected it from. He has had only one “minus” game in his last eleven games.

-- The record will show that Scott Clemmensen allowed four goals on 24 shots faced, but truth be told, the Panther defense was rather bad, and that isn’t just the defensemen. Hendricks got a goal when Clay Wilson left him standing there for what seemed to be a ten-count waiting for the puck at the post, and Jack Skille nonchalanted the backcheck to let Sean Collins cruise down the slot for his goal.

-- Semyon Varlamov kept the Caps in the game early, giving his teammates time to find their legs (which they only had in spurts tonight, anyway). He’s not going away in this goalie sweepstakes thing.

-- For all the hills and valleys of this season, a win on Saturday against this same Florida Panthers team would enable the Caps to finish the regular season with the second-highest standings points total in team history (109), the second fewest number of losses in regulation over a full season (22), and the fourth highest number of wins (49).

In the end, it was about what you expected. It was an unevenly played game pitting a team tuning up for the playoffs against one checking airline schedules to get out of town at the end of the weekend. No one appears to have been injured for the Caps, and that is probably the takeaway from this game. With 81 down and one to go, a repeat performance against this same team on Saturday will be just fine for the Caps.