Washington Capitals 2013-2014 Previews -- Defensemen: John Carlson

John Carlson

Theme: “Success is a science; if you have the conditions, you get the result.”

-- Oscar Wilde

The position of defenseman in the National Hockey League is a grueling one.  It taxes the mind and body, and it is difficult to master.  John Carlson has established himself among the most durable defensemen in the league, having dressed for each of the league’s regular season games over the past three seasons.  Know how many other defensemen can make that claim?  Four: Matt Carle, Rob Scuderi, Keith Yandle, and Karl Alzner.  That’s it.  At age 23, Carlson has learned to deal with the mental and physical rigors of the game to be able to answer the call every night, and that is not a common characteristic in the NHL.

Next on the to-do list might be consistency.  Carlson’s first full season with the Capitals was a revelation.  He played in all 82 games (the only rookie defenseman to do so) and was among the rookie defenseman leaders in goals (tied for fourth), assists (tied for second), points (fourth), plus-minus (second), game-winning goals (tied for first), and ice time (first).

His sophomore season was not nearly as impressive.  He had trouble getting started at the offensive end of the ice (two points in his first eight games), then when his offensive game came around, he seemed to be on ice for just about every goal scored against the Caps.  He was on ice for 104 of the 226 goals against the Caps for the 2011-2012 season.  Only three defensemen were on ice for more goals against. 

Carlson rebounded to have a solid 2012 playoff, then continue the trend into the 2013 season in which he was on a career best 82-game pace in goals and points, and was on ice for only 33 even strength goals, an 82-game pace (56) almost as good as his rookie season (51).

Then, like the rest of the team, he slipped some in the seven-game loss to the New York Rangers in the first round of the post-season.  He finished the seven games with just one point (an assist in Game 3) and was on ice for eight of the 16 goals scored by the Rangers in the series.

Fearless’ Take…

Carlson has the offensive part of his game down, especially for one as young as he is.  Over the 2010-2011 through 2012-2013 period, Carlson is one of eight NHL defensemen 23 years of age or younger with at least 20 goals and at least 90 points.  He has been given a bigger power play role with the club, averaging more than two minutes per game last season (he averaged more than two minutes a game in 2010-2011, too, but this was more a product of Mike Green missing 33 games).

Now, let’s do a thought exercise (with pictures!).  Consider three defensemen and a few commonly referred-to 5-on-5 measures from last season…

You have figured out that John Carlson is one of these defensemen.  He is “Defenseman B.”  The other two are Ryan Suter (“Defenseman A”) and Zdeno Chara (“Defenseman C”).  Suter is 28 years old, with 590 games of regular season experience in the NHL, and has been a Norris Trophy finalist.  Chara is 36 years old, with 1,055 games, and has won a Norris Trophy.  Carlson is 23, with 234 games of regular season experience.  Yeah, yeah… small sample size, but it isn’t bad company, either.

Cheerless’ Take…

Let’s try another one of those thinkin’ exercises.  Here are two scoring lines:

18 games, 3-9-12, plus-19

30 games, 3-7-10, minus-8

That’s John Carlson against the Southeast Division and John Carlson against everyone else last season.  He was a “plus” player only four times all season against non-Southeast teams: Buffalo, Toronto, Montreal, and the New York Rangers.  Twelve of his 13 minus-games came against non-Southeast teams.

And here is an odd fact about his 2012-2013 season.  His offense dried up in the last 26 games.  He had four goals in his first 22 games, two in his last 28.  That was a product of both fewer shots and lower efficiency.  In his first 22 games he averaged 2.32 shots per game and converted on 7.84 percent of them.  He was on a pace to set a career best in shooting percentage.  But, in his last 26 games it was 1.77 shots per game and a 4.35 percent rate of scoring on them.  Not a lot in terms of shots per game difference, but it was a 24 percent drop in shots on goal overall.

The Big Question… Can John Carlson put together a solid, consistent 82 games?

This is not a simple question to answer.  The question implies a lack of consistency last season.  On one level, one could say Carlson lacked that consistency.  He had his ups and downs over the course of the season.  But Carlson had the odd circumstance of being matched with largely one-dimensional defensemen of entirely different types. 

Of his 810 minutes of 5-on-5 time last season, Carlson spent 373 minutes skating on a pair with John Erskine and another 189 minutes skating on a pair with Jack Hillen (he did not skate as many as 100 minutes with any other defensemen).  Erskine is a physical defenseman who provides little in the way of offense and does not have elite foot speed to play in his own end.  Hillen is a somewhat undersized defenseman who is perhaps more adept in the offensive end and who has had health issues over his career (he has not played more than 69 games in any of his six seasons and has missed time for jaw, concussion, and shoulder injuries). 

Carlson might be categorized as a two-way defenseman, but he might have been put in situations where he had to be one type while skating on one pair, a different one skating with another.  It might have been a bit much for a 23-year old defenseman with fewer than 250 games experience to deal with consistently.

In the end…

John Carlson will not lack for motivation this season.  There is the perennial chase for the Stanley Cup, of course.  But this season he has the added incentive of a potential spot on the United States men’s ice hockey Olympic team.  This incentive converges with his need to be more consistent.  As he put it himself, “I just need to stay consistent. That’s something that I’ve battled with, and after I got out of that start last season, I thought I played great game in and game out.  I’ve just got to work my butt off to make sure {Team USA management] can’t cross me off.”

One thing Carlson will have to avoid is a slow start, especially in his own end.  In Washington’s first 27 games last season the club allowed 82 goals.  Carlson was on ice for 41 of them.  What he is looking for is what he did in his last 21 games, over which he was on ice for only 20 goals.  As for the rest of his game, he will not get the power play time to be a top-shelf offensive producer.  That role still belongs to Mike Green, but he could be on the brink of becoming a solid 40-plus point performer from the blue line.  If he has the conditions – ice time, a top-four role, a stable and reliable partner, some time on the power play – he might just have the results he and the Caps (not to mention the U.S. Olympic Team) are looking for.

Projection: 82 games, 11-28-39, plus-11

Photo: Elsa/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2013-2014 Previews -- Defensemen: Karl Alzner

Karl Alzner

Theme: “It's all in how you arrange the thing... the careful balance of the design is the motion.”

-- Andrew Wyeth

If you Googled “Karl Alzner” today and checked on news for the Caps defenseman, the first two stories were one about his road trip from British Columbia to Washington, the other a story about his treating his dogs to McDonalds to celebrate Murphy’s fifth birthday (he would be one of the dogs).  The dogs are probably more the “wild child” sort than is Alzner, as we found out a couple of years ago after a playoff game.  They (well, sort of) even have their own Twitter feed. 

It is that sort of low-key, balanced, dependable, salt of the earth sort of approach Alzner has brought to the ice in his five seasons in Washington (and gets him upstaged by his dogs).  He is not flashy, what with a career 82-game scoring pace of 2-12-14, plus-5 and having only two multi-point games in a 263-game career in the regular season. 

He does, however, draw the tough assignments.  In terms of 5-on-5 ice time faced, the top ten he faced in 2013 include:

Jordan Staal

Evander Kane

Jeff Skinner

Steven Stamkos

Martin St. Louis

Blake Wheeler

Nik Antropov

Ilya Kovalchuk

Marcel Goc

Olli Jokinen

That is, of course, heavily weighted to the Southeast Division, but that is a product of scheduling.  Against other divisions, though… he drew Patrice Bergeron and Tyler Seguin most often from among the Boston Bruins.  It was Ryan Callahan and Derek Stepan from the New York Rangers.  Evgeni Malkin and James Neal from Pittsburgh (source: stats.hockeyanalysis.com).  Alzner does not draw grinders.

The result was that his goals against/60 minutes at 5-on-5 was better than Dion Phaneuf, better than Rob Scuderi, better than Jay Bouwmeester, better than Robyn Regehr.  Perhaps as important, his being the stay-at-home sort allowed Mike Green to do his thing in the offensive side of the game (Alzner skated almost four times as many minutes with Green at 5-on-5 than he did with any other Caps defenseman).

Fearless’ Take…

Offense always lends itself more readily to analysis than defense, and Karl Alzner is a defensive defenseman.  So let’s look at this a bit subjectively for a moment.  Alzner signed a four-year/$11.2 million deal last July, a salary cap hit of $2.8 million a year.  If you look at his age, date of his contract signing, and cap hit, then compare it to his “comparable” comparables (from capgeek.com), the list looks like Michael Del Zotto, Jared Spurgeon, P.K. Subban, and Carl Gunnarsson.  Except for Subban, Alzner looks like a very good deal, even compared with this group. 

This is also a defenseman with fewer offensive zone starts at 5-on-5 last season than guys like Ryan McDonagh, Dan Girardi, Mark Stuart, Kevin Bieksa, Dan Hamhuis, Kimmo Timonen, and Anton Volchenkov.  Alzner has to be considered among the best at what he does among defensemen 25 or younger (he turns 25 on Tuesday).

Cheerless’ Take…

It is one thing to say that Karl Alzner tending to business in his own end frees things up for Mike Green to do his thing at the offensive end.  But if Alzner poses no threat in the offensive end, do teams load up to make things harder for Green on his side of the ice?  Green had 12 points at even strength in 35 games, only four assists.  That put him in the company of Alexei Emelin, Zach Bogosian, and Andrej Sekera in terms of even strength points per game. 

The Big Question… Does Karl Alzner have another gear in his offensive game?

Even by Karl Alzner’s modest standard, last year was a barren year on offense.  Going into last season his career per-82 game average scoring line was 2-13-15.  Last year he was 1-4-5 in 48 games, which works out to a 2-7-9 82-game scoring rate.  Alzner is not going to be the sort of defenseman who rushes the puck up ice to create offense, as does Mike Green.  He is not going to pound the net with booming shots like a John Carlson.  However, Alzner recorded progressively higher point totals when he played in Calgary in Canadian junior hockey, and he had a pair of 20-plus point seasons in Hershey in partial seasons before joining the Caps for good.  There could be some untapped potential there.

The idea here is not an either-or matter, that Alzner needs to trade some of his defensive game for a larger offensive footprint.  He is still young enough, at soon-to-be 25, to expand his game, to add more layers to it.  Part of it is efficiency.  Among defensemen playing in at least half his team’s games, Alzner finished tied for 137^th in shooting percentage at 2.6 percent, and that was higher than his career average going into the season (2.4 percent).  Another part of it is effectiveness.  Among that same group of defensemen last season, Alzner finished 121^st in total shots on goal.

Alzner is not likely to be a 20-point defenseman this season, but if he can be more of a threat from his side of the ice (and this is where coaching will come into play), even if he is not as prolific as a Mike Green or John Carlson, he could make defenses more honest.  Just a little more shot volume and maybe a little more efficiency on the shots he does take could do the trick.

In the end…

Alzner appears to have found an unexpected home.  The thinking since he and John Carlson broke into the league was that the two would form a foundation defensive pairing for a decade or more.  Last season Alzner spent more time with Mike Green at 5-on-5 (508:54) than he did with the rest of the roster defensemen combined (336:09), including John Carlson (79:38).  That now being a pair grown familiar with one another, better things might be in store at both ends of the ice.

However, any offense Alzner generates is, frankly, gravy for this team.  His stock in trade is his ability to deny the offense of others.  He does it, not with bone-crushing hits (107^th among 289 defensemen last season) or blocked shots (37^th), but with body and stick position, and a growing sense of awareness that comes with experience.  In that respect, what Caps fans should be expecting is that he do more of it.  Just don’t expect him to be flashy doing it.  Leave “flashy” to the dogs.

Projection: 82 games, 3-12-15, plus-6

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Washington Capitals 2013-2014 Previews -- Forwards: Joel Ward

Joel Ward

Theme: “If we will be quiet and ready enough, we shall find compensation in every disappointment.”

-- Henry David Thoreau

Joel Ward is in a select society of Washington Capitals.  He is one of three players in franchise history to end a playoff series in overtime with a goal.  He took his place alongside Dale Hunter (1988) and Joe Juneau (1998) when he scored in overtime in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference quarterfinal series against the defending Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins in 2012. 

Then, misfortune.  It was his double-minor penalty taken for high-sticking with 22 seconds left in Game 5 of the conference semis that gave the New York Rangers a four-minute power play.  The Rangers scored on both ends – the first with 6.6 seconds left in regulation to tie, then at 1:35 into the first overtime to give the Rangers the win and deny the Caps the chance to go up 3-2 in games.  The Caps lost the series in seven games.

How did Ward respond to the high and the low when he returned for the 2013 season?  He played in each of the Caps’ first 39 games, going 8-12-20, plus-7 in the process.  He ended that run with a flourish, recording a goal (the game-winner) and an assist in earning the first star in a 4-2 win over Tampa Bay on April 7^th.

However, that game would be his last in the regular season.  With 8:48 gone in the third period, and the Caps clinging to a 3-2 lead, Ward blocked a shot by Lightning defenseman Sami Salo.  Ward suffered a contusion to his left knee.  He missed the last nine games of the regular season, but he would return from that injury in time for Game 1 against the Rangers in the Eastern Conference quarterfinals and would tie for the team lead in scoring against New York in the seven-game series (although four points to lead the team should not be seen as all that impressive; that a grinder getting 13 minutes a game would, perhaps somewhat more).

Fearless’ Take…

Ward settled into a third/fourth line role with the club last year.  It was a role perhaps not envisioned when he signed a four-year/$12 million contract in 2011, but he was at least as productive as one would expect from someone playing the role he was asked to play.  His eight goals in 39 games last year was his second best goals-per game (0.21) in his six-year career, just behind his 17 goals in 79 games (0.22/game) with Nashville in 2008-2009.  His 20 points in 39 games (0.51 points/game) was his career best, this despite his being seventh among forwards in total ice time per game and ninth at five-on-five.

Ward had solid, if unspectacular possession numbers.  He was fifth among Capital forwards in Corsi and relative Corsi at 5-on-5 (20 games minimum; source: behindthenet.ca), numbers which look better in light of his 44.8 percent offensive zone starts at 5-on-5.  His PDO value (sum of team shooting percentage and save percentage, on ice, at 5-on-5) was third among forwards, this after finishing first among forwards in 2011-2012 (minimum: 40 games).

Cheerless’ Take…

OK, about that production.  Buffalo, Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Florida were the bottom four finishers in the Eastern Conference.  Ward played 14 games against those four teams and went 6-9-15, plus-8.  In 25 games against everyone else he was 2-3-5, minus-1.  Against teams he will be playing against in the Metropolitan Division in 2013-2014 he was 2-3-5, minus-6 in 19 games (the Caps did not play against Columbus).

Then there was the fast start thing.  In 2013 he started 5-6-11, plus-7 in his first 14 games (a 29-35-64, plus-41 82-game pace), but then went 3-6-9, even, in his last 25 games (a 10-20-30, even pace over 82 games).  It was a lot like his 2011-2012 season where he went 4-3-7, plus-6 in his first 12 games (a 27-21-48, plus-41 pace) and 2-9-11, plus-6 in his last 61 games (a 3-12-15, plus-8 pace).

The Big Question… Where will Joel play?

This is a question that might have less to do with what Ward does and more what Adam Oates does.  More to the point, what Oates does with Eric Fehr.  So far this preseason Fehr has been getting time at center, moving from what one might have thought to be his spot on the right side of the third line.  If Oates sees this as a permanent fixture in the Caps’ lineup, it will open up the right wing spot on the third line for Ward.  Unless…

And this is where Ward might have some (perhaps limited, though) impact on where he sets up shop.  Moving Fehr to center opens up the right wing spot on the third line for Tom Wilson, too, who Oates seems to want on the roster to start the season.  Wilson and Ward would be fighting it out to see who plays where between the third and fourth lines, at least to start the season.

In the end…

Joel Ward had one of his best seasons in terms of offensive productivity last season despite the second lowest average ice time per game in his five full seasons in the NHL.  It would be hard for him to replicate those numbers, unless you think a 15.4 percent shooting percentage is sustainable.  Keep in mind that his career shooting percentage going into last season was 8.9 percent (it was 10.3 percent over his last 32 games last season).

Ward did, however, display versatility.  Among Capitals forwards with the team all season in 2013 he was one of only three forwards who averaged more than one minute of both power play and shorthanded ice time.  This was a large departure from his 2011-2012 experience when he averaged only 45 seconds of combined special teams ice time per game.

It is safe to say Ward is going to play on the right side… somewhere.  Where that is, is not entirely in his control.  Roster machinations – where Adam Oates decides to play Eric Fehr, whether George McPhee chooses to keep Tom Wilson on the roster (which would require another roster move to free salary cap space) – will be the moving parts that will go a long way to determine where Ward will play.

However, none of this seems likely to alter what Ward presents on the ice.  He will be an occasional contributor on offense (although it would be nice if it was more “occasional” as the season wears on than it has in his first two years in Washington).  He will work in all three zones digging out pucks.  He will be a solid, if unspectacular defensive player (he was 48^th among 395 NHL forwards in plus-minus per 60 minutes and 125^th among that same group in goals scored against per 60 minutes at 5-on-5). With all the ups and downs, with all the other stuff swirling around the forward lines, Ward has been steady as a rock.  It is an underappreciated quality.

Projection: 78 games, 11-15-26, plus-7

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Countdown to Opening Night by the Elements: Number 10

And now Fearless is down to the last ten elements to Opening Night.  It won’t be long now…

Neon

Neon is a noble gas that emits a bright red signature in the electromagnetic spectrum.  Born in fusion processes in stars, it is named for the Greek word, “neos,” meaning “new.”  As often as the word appears in conversation and print, it is actually a quite rare element, made even more so by the fact that is forms no stable chemical compounds. That makes it extremely volatile, allowing it to escape the earth in the heat of the young solar system.

It was discovered at the end of the 19^th century by Sir William Ramsey.  Having little else to do, apparently, Ramsey took a sample of air (it being in great supply) and chilled it.  I mean really chilled it.  So much that it became a liquid (for the record, that means taking it to a temperature of minus-319 degrees Fahrenheit).  Then he warmed it back up, slowly.  This allowed him to collect the gases comprising air as they boiled off, since each of them individually had different boiling points.  Nitrogen boiled off…oxygen…even argon.  Then, krypton (this guy would have been great building stills in the Appalachians).  He was left with a gas that gave off a brilliant red light when current was passed through it.  He named it “neon.”

Of all the noble gases, neon gives off the most intense light and is expressed as a red-orange color to the human eye.  These qualities make it a preferred element in lighting, displays, and it was important in the development of plasma television screen applications. 

Neon is not restricted to lighting or sign applications, although they are their most commonly known ones.  It is used in vacuum tubes, voltage indicators, and even lasers.  In its liquefied form it is used as a refrigerant.

We have an element born in stellar furnaces, but one that is apart from other elements on earth.  It shines brightest among them with an intense reddish glow.  And even though it is most commonly known as an element in lighting and in sign-making, it has a number of other applications.  It sounds like someone who is among the many elements of Caps Nation, but works apart from them (perhaps in his own booth), one whose intensity makes brighter and more memorable Caps game nights.  One who while most well-known here for his special talents on game night, has a lot of other credits to his name.

Neon… the “Wes Johnson” of the elements of the periodic table.

Countdown to Opening Night by the Elements: Number 11

Fearless got a bit behind his time and is late getting to number 11 in his waltz through the elements of the periodic table, but here he is anyway…

Sodium

Young chemistry students always seem to scratch their heads about this element.  How in heaven’s name does “Sodium” end up with the chemical symbol, “Na?”  It goes back to the discovery of the element.  Sir Humphry Davy was fooling around with electricity and caustic soda (what we know today to be sodium hydroxide).  He ended up with elemental sodium, and since it was derived from caustic soda, he thought, “well…soda…sodium.”  Not in those words (19^th century England being a time of much more flowery prose), but that’s the gist of it.

Ah, but not so fast.  We had a new element, but we did not have a chemical symbol for it.  Six years after Davy’s discovery, Swedish chemist Jöns Jakob Berzelius (you knew a Swede would show up sooner or later) got in the game.  Let’s follow along with this United Nations of naming process.  Berzelius (the Swede) took Davy’s discovery (he being the Englishman) and published a new system of atomic symbols in the “Annals of Philosophy,” a publication by Thomas Thomson (a Scottish chemist).  Among the symbols, Berzelius chose “Na” for sodium from the Latin word, “natrium,” which meant, well…”sodium.”

It was a lot of effort for what is a soft, silver-white, highly reactive metal that does not occur as a free metal in nature (it’s too reactive).  It does occur in a variety of compounds.  The aforementioned “caustic soda” – or “lye,” used in everything from soap-making to food preparation (the Scandanavian delicacy “lutefisk,” for example).  Sodium carbonate is used in glass manufacture.  Sodium peroxide is used to bleach wood pulp in paper manufacturing.  Sodium nitrate is used in fertilizers and in the manufacture of gunpowder.  Sodium nitrite is used to make dyes and acts as a corrosion inhibitor.  And of course, there is sodium chloride, which we know as common table salt.

In biology it acts as a fluid regulator, and important element in regulating blood pressure, blood volume, osmotic equilibrium (no net movement of fluid across membranes), and acidity.  In some plants it contributes to metabolism and regulates the uptake of water.

Sodium is one of those elements for which care must be taken in handling.  Exposed to air it will spontaneously react with water vapor to generate flammable hydrogen and sodium hydroxide – that caustic soda again.  In its powered form it will explode spontaneously in the presence of oxygen.  Moral…leave handling of sodium to the professionals.

So there it is, a common and very important element that can be found in nature in any number of important and useful combinations.  Discovered in Europe with a Swedish connection.  Reacts readily in the presence of water (maybe even ice).  Critical in life processes.  It might sound a bit like a center who, as a playmaker, reacts with a number of teammates to generate offense.  An important ingredient in any number of situations – 5-on-5, power play, penalty killing.  One from and discovered in Sweden.

Sodium… the “Nicklas Backstrom” of elements of the periodic table.

Countdown to Opening Night by the Elements: Number 12

Fearless seems to have an inexhaustible number of matches of elements of the periodic table to Washington Capitals.  What does he have for number 12?

Magnesium

When you go outside and look up into the trees on a spring day, you can see the green shoots of leaves emerging after a tree’s long winter slumber.  The green color you see, as any child learns in earth science class, is a product of “chlorophyll.”  It is a complex molecule that is essential to life on earth, allowing plants to absorb energy from light and convert it to chemical energy (photosynthesis).  Chemically, it is a long-chain molecule with a “chlorin ring” at one end.  At the center of this chlorin ring is a metal ion – Magnesium (strictly speaking Mg⁺⁺), which binds to nitrogen on either side of it.

Magnesium, at the heart of one of the most important naturally occurring chemicals on earth, and it is born in the superheated furnace of stars as the elements helium and neon are fused.  However, it is not found naturally on earth as a free element.  It can be produced as a free element, but in a process called “passivation,” it reacts in air to produce a thin oxide coating that renders it “passive.”  A good thing, too, because magnesium is an extremely reactive element.  It is one of the reasons you will find it in flares (do not stare into the light).

It shares a history with manganese, it being named for a region of Greece called “Magnesia.” 

Despite it being one of the lightest elements, it is a workhorse, even among the metals.  It is often used as a component in aluminum alloys, in iron and steel production (to remove sulfur), and in the production of titanium.  It has been used in aircraft (although it had a nasty habit of contributing to the ignition of engine crankcases in flight), race cars (mainly to reduce weight while maintaining structural strength), advanced consumer electronics (tablet devices, smart phones, cameras…again, for light weight, structural strength), water heaters (where it gives itself up to protect the vessel from corrosion), fertilizers, antacids, and laxatives.  In addition to its role in photosynthesis, it is present in the synthesis of chemicals involved in energy transfer, and it essential to nucleic acid chemistry, the manufacture of DNA and RNA in the body.

Magnesium… a chemical one pays little attention to, but one that is critical for the functioning of plant and animal organisms, one that shares a history with another, similarly named chemical, one that is an unsung workhorse among the elements.  Sounds like a guy who gets little attention but attends to the little things that help make a hockey team go, a player who shares a history with a teammate who is the Capital that most closely resembles that element with the similar history (the players shared a championship in Hershey in 2009 and 2010), a workhorse who plays the role of grinder and occasional pest.

Magnesium….the “Jay Beagle” of the elements of the periodic table.

Countdown to Opening Night by the Elements: Number 13

Lucky “13” of the elements Fearless is looking at?  Well…you be the judge.

Aluminum

Aluminum is a rather common metal, the most common one in the earth’s crust, as a matter of fact.  Ah, but try finding it as a metal in nature.  Probably not going to happen.  Aluminum is simply too reactive on its own.  But you can find it in more than 250 different minerals.  Despite its reactivity, it does not easily ignite.

It has a long history, its being in evidence in ancient Greece and Rome as an astringent (a “styptic” – an astringent used in treating wounds).  It would not be until the mid-18^th century that Louis-Bernard Guyton de Morveau, a French chemist and sometime political official, looked at “alum” (which is hydrated potassium aluminum sulfate, but they didn’t know that at the time, it was just this quartzy looking stuff) and decided to call it “alumine.” 

Close…but not quite.  Sir Humphry Davy figured out that there was a metal in there and called it “alumium.”  Ooooh…almost.  Davy took another shot at it, calling the metal “aluminum,” but he didn’t get around to actually extracting the metal.  Friedrich Wöhler, a German chemist, almost did it, but he thought he had potassium.  He tweaked his experimental processes a bit, and in 1827 he isolated pure aluminum. Bet this would have gone much more quickly if Swedes were involved.

But back to aluminum.  It is a very durable element, resistant to corrosion.  It has no known function in biology, but it does lend strength to metals with which it is alloyed, making it critical in aerospace, transportation, and structural applications. In fact, it is among the most practical of elements, finding its way into any number of applications or products: packaging (cans or foil), automobiles, building construction, utilities (light poles, sign posts), protection (casings for electronic equipment and consumer products), heat sinks for electronic appliances, paints, musical instruments (generally guitars), lighting, athletic equipment, fireworks, and many more.

Oh, and here is an odd fact about aluminum.  You find that in some countries (Great Britain, for example) the element is spelled “aluminium,” with the extra “I” imparting an extra syllable in pronunciation.  There is a reason for that.  There is this organization that serves as the authority on chemical nomenclature, the “International Union of Pure and Applied Chmistry (IUPAC, for short).”  After Davy proposed “aluminum” as the name for the metal, IUPAC decided that “aluminum” needed to conform to the naming conventions for elements, that they end in “ium.”  So, “aluminum” became “aluminium,” which is its official spelling to this day.  It was the Americans, being the rebellious sort they are, that changed the name back, the American Chemical Society doing the deed back in 1925.

So, there it is.  The strange history of its name aside, a widely found element that is durable, reactive if not readily ignitable, capable of lending strength to a wide variety of metal alloys.  It is not a flashy element, but rather one found in any number of useful, everyday applications and products. It is not unlike a hockey player who is sturdy, durable, plays hard in the corners and along the boards (although seldom fights…perhaps just one career fight, in fact).  A player who is a meat-and-potatoes sort who isn’t flashy, but can contribute at both ends of the ice.

Aluminum (or “Aluminium”)… the “Joel Ward” of the elements of the periodic table.

Countdown to Opening Night by the Elements: Number 14

Fourteen days left, fourteen elements.  Which Washington Capital will Fearless match to number 14?...

Silicon

Before it was an adjective that named a geographical feature in northern California (Silicon Valley), “silicon” was a common, garden variety element of the periodic table.  It is an element rarely found in its pure form in nature, but it is found in gobs of compounds (“gobs” being a common measurement in chemistry).  That’s what makes it the eighth most common element in the universe, by mass, and that allows one to find it in silica (dioxides of silicon), silicates, and of course…silicone.

As silica, it is found most often in glass, but it is also used in the production of optical fiber for telecommunications, and it is used in the production of porcelain and stoneware.  It is also used in food additives and for thermal protection.  It is used to get into tight places in hydraulic fracturing of geological formations to extract shale oil and gas.  It is used in toothpaste as an agent to remove dental plaque.

Silicates are the heavy lifters of the silicon family of substances.  It is what makes up sand and is, in fact, the single most common substance in the earth’s crust.  It is commonly used in what is referred to as “Portland cement, “ which is the most common type of cement, used in building applications (concrete, mortar, stucco) and in grout.

Silicones are synthetic compounds of silicon that have applications in both adhesives and lubricants, sealants and insulation, in cookware, dry-cleaning and in medical applications.

The establishment of silicon as an element brought out the big guns of chemistry in the 18^th and 19^th centuries.  Antoine Lavoisier of France, the “Father of Modern Chemistry;” Sir Humphry Davy of England, Louis Jacques Thénard and Joseph Louis Gay-Lussac of France.  None, however, were able to isolate it in its pure form.  That would be left to Jöns Jacob Berzelius of….TA-DA… Sweden, in 1823. 

The odd part of all that was that its discovery as a pure element came after it was named.  The somewhat unimaginatively named Thomas Thomson, a Scottish chemist, looked at it previous name – “silicium” – and decided it was not “metally” enough (we just made up that word).  In 1817 he dumped the “ium,” stuck on “on” (because it resembled boron and carbon), and voila!  “Silicon.”

What we have is a common element that has many applications in which it finds itself in tight places.  It can be a an abrasive or a lubricant.  It took a while for it to be established as a stand-alone element even though there had been a lot of work and speculation to establish it as such.  Sounds like a player who might often throw himself into tight places on the ice, who might be a bit abrasive and more inclined to throw his body around than his size would suggest, who might be shifty and slippery enough to escape harm, and who spent a long time establishing himself as an NHL player.

Silicon… the “Mathieu Perreault” of the elements of the periodic table.

Washington Capitals 2013-2014 Previews -- Forwards: Aaron Volpatti

Aaron Volpatti

Theme: “Well, there are some things a man just can't run away from.”

-- Henry, The Ringo Kid (John Wayne in “Stagecoach”)

When the contract of Matt Hendricks expired with the end of the 2013 season, it was apparent that he would not be resigned to a new deal by the Washington Capitals.  Hendricks established himself as a fan favorite, his “Paralyzer” shootout move delighting crowds, his stand-up attitude gaining the respect of players and fans alike.  But he was also a fourth liner who was not likely to get more than ten minutes or so of ice time on an average night and was not likely to be more than a 10-15 point a season player.  Given his age (32), the hard miles put upon his body, even over only 263 regular season games, and his likely asking price (he signed a four-year deal in Nashville for $1.85 million a year), returning to Washington was a long shot at best.

And that brings us to Aaron Volpatti. Four years younger than Hendricks, with only 71 games of NHL experience, and (perhaps most important) with only a $575,000 salary cap hit through the 2014-2015 season with the two-year contract extension he signed last April (itself a hint that Hendricks would not be re-upped), Volpatti now assumes the role of agitator, provocateur, grinder, occasional pugilist that was filled by Hendricks.  As for his replacing “The Paralyzer” in the trick shot competition, don’t count on it.  He has not yet taken a turn in the Gimmick as an NHL’er.

Volpatti skated a path similar to that of Hendricks to get to this point in his career.  Both are products of four-year careers in NCAA schools, Hendricks at St. Cloud State, Volpatti at Brown University.  Both had brief introductions to the AHL when their final NCAA seasons ended, Hendricks with the Milwaukee Admirals, Volpatti with the Manitoba Moose.  This is where the paths diverge a bit, though.  Hendricks knocked around the AHL for another five seasons – Lowell, Rochester, Hershey, Providence, and Lake Erie (with a stay in Florida of the ECHL included).  Volpatti spent a little less than a full season at Manitoba in 2010-2011 - 53 games there, with another 15 with the Vancouver Canucks in the NHL – before sticking with the Canucks permanently (if not full time; he played in only 23 games due to a shoulder injury) in 2011-2012.

Earlier this season, at the end of February, Volpatti was claimed off waivers by the Caps.  He played in only 17 games for the Caps out of 29 for which he was available.  It took him a while to get started with the Caps.  He had as many fights (one) as shots on goal (one) in his first eight games with Washington.  Not that he was getting much ice time; he averaged less than eight minutes a game over those first eight contests.

His ice time picked up in the last nine games of the season he played for the Caps – almost 11 minutes a game – but he did not record a point and had nine shots on goal.  He finished 0-1-1, minus-2, averaging 9:18 of ice time a game.

Fearless’ Take…

The extent to which Volpatti gets ice time would seem to bear a direct relationship to his propensity to play with a physical edge.  That does not necessarily mean dropping the gloves.  In his first season with Vancouver he led all forwards in hits per game, even though he appeared in only 15 games.  The following season he was second (minimum ten games played).  Last season, up to his being waived, he again led the Canucks.  One might say with some confidence that hits are something of an arbitrary statistic, but given his rank among teammates, you might expect that the observational bias would be similar among teammates.

Cheerless’ Take…

Volpatti has given no sign of contributing much, if any offense from the fourth line.  Yeah, he has only 71 games played in the NHL, but by the time he played in 71 NHL games, the guy Volpatti is replacing (Matt Hendricks) was 10-9-19.  Volpatti is 3-2-5 and has twice as many penalty minutes (88) as shots on goal (44).  No one expects the fourth line to contribute much on offense, but it can’t be a dry well, either.

The Big Question… Will Aaron Volpatti be anything more than a patch this season?

The top two lines are largely set for the Caps.  The third line could be a Brooks Laich-Mathieu Perreault-Eric Fehr production.  That leaves Jason Chimera and Volpatti to work things out on the fourth line at left wing.  Chimera would appear to have the inside track on that spot, but he slumped so much on offense last season, it might sound alarms about how large his contributions might be.  The thing is, neither Chimera nor Volpatti play much, if at all, on special teams, so it comes down to 5-on-5 production.  Volpatti is going to struggle to get a sweater on this team, absent injury or a personnel move.  If he is going to blossom, he is going to have to hit the ice skating to make an impression.

In the end…

It is hard to see how Volpatti plays more than a handful of games and/or makes an impact when he does.  He has displayed little in the way of being an offensive threat, is a hitter but not necessarily a fighter (probably an overrated skill in this NHL these days).  His contributions are going to be the kinds of things that do not show up in box scores.  He is likely to be the prototypical “energy” player who is difficult for other teams to play against.  He is going to have to show some skill in the defensive end to make up for his offensive shortcomings.  It is not an easy way to make a living in professional hockey, even if there are just some things a man can’t run away from. 

Projection: 26 games, 1-1-2, minus-3

Photo: Harry How/Getty Images North America

Countdown to Opening Night by the Elements: Number 15

Fifteen days to Opening Night, and Fearless is running out of elements to match with your Washington Capitals.  Next in line is number 15…

Phosphorus

The name “phosphorus” comes from the Greek word, “phosphoros,” meaning “bringer of light,” an ancient name for the planet Venus.  The name was bestowed upon the element as a result of the glow that phosphorus gives off in the presence of oxygen.  The glow is evidence of the high reactivity of phosphorus, an element not found in nature in a pure form for just that reason.

Phosphorus as an element exists almost entirely in two forms, white and red (convenient for our purposes here, covering the Caps and all).  White phosphorus glows green in the dark and is self-igniting in the presence of air.  It must be stored in water to avoid this occurrence.  Red phosphorus is obtained by heating white phosphorus and is more stable than its white counterpart.  It will not spontaneously ignite in air, although as we will see in a moment, that does not make it entirely safe.

Phosphorus is named for a word meaning “bringer of light,” but it also has another term attached to it – “The Devil’s Element.”  Why?  Well, it was the 13^th element to be discovered (the number 13 thought to be an unlucky number).  Also, it its “red” form it was used to make matches (“frictional” heating, such as striking it across a rough surface, returns the “red” phosphorus to its “white” form, which then ignites).

It was discovered in 1669 by German chemist Hennig Brand, and this is where the story turns just a bit weird.  Brand, who might have been an otherwise rational sort of fellow, set out to create the “philosopher’s stone,” a centerpiece of alchemy thought to be capable of turning base metals (lead, for instance) into gold or silver.  Brand got it into his head that he might be able to accomplish the feat by distilling salts from (and we’re not making this up) urine.  We are not going to go through the whole, frankly disgusting process, other than to say it required large quantities that took up to two weeks to accumulate (these days, that’s what graduate research assistants are for).

He must have been disappointed when he did not end up with gold, but rather a white, waxy substance that glowed in the dark.  What he had was ammonium sodium hydrogen phosphate.  It would be up to Johann Kunckel, a Swedish chemist (you knew there had to be one here somewhere), to produce elemental phosphorus in 1678 from the compound Brand synthesized.

Today, phosphorus has a variety of uses – flame retardants, pesticides, water treatment, steel production, water softening, carbonated soft drinks (which used to be called “phosphates”).  There are two applications that bear special notice.  One, in its calcium phosphate form, is bone china – a fine material that contains a minimum of 30 percent phosphate.  The other is, as we hinted, matches.  The head of the match contains phosphorus that ignites when struck on a rough surface.

What we have is an element that is unsafe in one of its predominant forms, capable of spontaneous ignition, and potentially dangerous in another, a form in which it can be ignited under special conditions.  It has something of an odd history about it, and it can be found in materials that can, on occasion, be fragile.  It sounds like a defenseman who can be a bit dangerous in his own end from time to time, but who at the other end can ignite an offense.  A defenseman who can be fairly described as a bit odd on occasion and who has been a bit fragile, subject to injury.

Phosphorus… the “Mike Green” of the elements of the periodic table.

Washington Capitals 2013-2014 Previews -- Forwards: Mathieu Perreault

Mathieu Perreault

Theme: “…you were meant to be here tonight. This is YOUR time.”

-- Herb Brooks (“Miracle”)

Mathieu Perreault’s apprenticeship as a professional hockey player technically ended on April 24, 2011.  That was his last game as a Hershey Bear, a 3-0 loss to the Charlotte Checkers in Game 6 of the first round of the 2011 Calder Cup playoffs.  In 2011-2012 Perreault was a full-time member of the Washington Capitals, finishing the season with a surprising 16 goals in 64 games.  He was on an 82-game season pace to play in 67 games last year in the abbreviated 2013 NHL season.

Nevertheless, Perreault was a player without certainty in terms of his role.  Was he a potential scoring line center?  A third line center who provided offense?  A player whose diminutive stature might relegate him limited minutes on the fourth line?  Then there was the matter of his intermittent benching last year by new head coach Adam Oates.  By early-February, Perreault had sat out six of the Caps first 11 games.  Oates remarked that, with respect to Perreault’s play, “it’s not about production; it’s about playing correctly.” 

Perreault seemed to get the message.  In his first game back after sitting for five games – a 5-0 win over the Florida Panthers – Perreault had a goal and an assist in 12:40 of ice time.  Those were his first points of the season and set off a finish in which he appeared in 34 of the Caps’ last 37 games, going 6-11-17, plus-10.  That was a 14-27-41, plus-24 pace per 82 games, not bad for a player who averaged less than 12 minutes of ice time a night, spending most of that ice time on a line with Jason Chimera and Eric Fehr.

And here is the thing about Perreault’s performance last year.  He assisted on 11 goals scored by seven different players.  Most his assists came on goals scored by Eric Fehr, who scored three goals off primary assists from Perreault, but what is noteworthy is that of his 11 assists, 10 of them were primary assists.  He did not come by his helpers cheaply.

Insofar as “playing correctly” is concerned, Perreault seemed to have made progress on that front.  At 5-on-5 Perreault was second among the team’s forwards in Corsi/on ice and second in relative Corsi (on-ice minus off-ice Corsi), suggesting superior possession performance.  Among forwards playing in at least half of the Caps’ games, he was on ice for the third fewest goals against.  He had the team’s second best PDO (sum of on-ice shooting percentage and save percentage) at 5-on-5, suggesting good things happened when he was out there.

Fearless’ Take…

Mathieu Perreault has suffered being thought of as too small to take the day-to-day, 82-game physical grind that is the NHL.  The thing is, though, Perreault has missed only six games in his career for physical reasons – one for food poisoning, one with a broken nose (he might have suffered a concussion but missed only the one game…perhaps not his brightest career move), and four with an “upper body” injury sustained a year to the day after his broken nose when his stick was caught in a seam along the boards in a game in Buffalo against the Sabres, and he speared himself.

He has been surprisingly consistent in his output over his brief NHL career to date, even as he has had to bear those intermittent benchings and early-career yo-yoing from Washington to Hershey.  He has consistently been just under half a point per game (0.44, to be exact), deviating less than 0.05 points per game per season over his four year career.  Over his four years he has the highest shooting percentage among all skaters playing in at least 150 games, almost a full percentage point (18.9 percent) greater than Steven Stamkos (18.0 percent).

Cheerless’ Take…

Was Mathieu Perreault’s season a mirage?  If you buy into the idea that the Caps feasted on weak Southeast Division competition, Perreault was like a competitive eater with a tapeworm.  He was 3-10-13, plus-10 in 17 games against the other four Southeast Division teams in 2013, 3-1-4, minus-1 in 18 games against everyone else.

And there is always going to be that idea that he will struggle with an 82-game grind until he doesn’t.  Over his last 20 games he was 1-4-5, and all of those points came in games against Southeast Division teams (Tampa Bay and Winnipeg).

The Big Question… Is Mathieu Perreault ready to have his name written in ink on the lineup card?

Perreault’s early career has been a series of fits and starts, spending time shuttling between Washington and Hershey in his first two seasons, getting a seat in the press box from time to time in his most recent two years.  As last season progressed he seemed to be settling into a third line role with Jason Chimera and Eric Fehr.  It would seem that to start this season Perreault will be centering Fehr and Brooks Laich on the third line (Laich’s current state of health notwithstanding).  This could be an interesting line to watch as the season unfolds.  Laich is probably more adept than Chimera at fishing out loose pucks and battling in front of the net.  Fehr was as pleasant a surprise as one could hope for last season.  But the line has to be driven, and that is going to be Perreault’s job.

In the end…

One usually thinks of a third line center as something of a grinder, a player who is matched against an opponent’s top line to shut them down more than as a player who generates offense.  Mathieu Perreault might be one of those “pound-for-pound-the-toughest-guy-in-the-league” kind of players (he certainly is not shy about trafficking in hard places), but he still shows signs of being predominantly an offense-oriented player. 

That is not a bad thing, especially if one adheres to the idea that “the best defense is a good offense.”  If Perreault can replicate his possession numbers from last season, the line could surprise with Perreault leading it.  And before we succumb to the idea the Perreault is something of a one-trick wonder, able to perform only against those weak Southeast teams, consider that over his four year career his per-82 game production against the Southeast was 12-30-43, plus-27, while against everyone else it was 17-19-36, plus-9.  He might have a somewhat better record against the Southeast, but he has not been a dog against the other 25 teams in the league.

What it comes down to is that the time for uncertainty or the intermittent nature of his role with the team has come to an end.  He will turn 26 just after the start of the new calendar year.  The 2013-2014 season is Mathieu Perreault’s time to establish himself in the regular scheme of things.

Projection: 71 games, 13-18-31, plus-5

Photo: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America

Countdown to Opening Night by the Elements: Number 16

After a night of Capitals hockey, we are down to 16 days to Opening Night, giving Fearless a chance to continue his jaunt through the rows and columns of the periodic table of the elements.  Next up…

Sulfur

“But the fearful, and unbelieving, and the abominable, and murderers, and whoremongers, and sorcerers, and idolaters, and all liars, shall have their part in the lake which burneth with fire and brimstone: which is the second death.”

We didn’t make that up. That comes from the Book of Revelation in the Holy Bible (Revelation 21:8, for those scoring at home).  Fire needs no explanation.  Brimstone?  That would be another name for sulfur.  You really, really don’t want a part of element number 16.

Sulfur has been known about for millennia, as its Biblical reference suggests.  In addition to its use in hellfire imagery, it found use as a fumigant and in Egypt to treat a peculiar case of conjunctivitis called “trachoma (granular eyelid).”  In Rome it was used for medicine and for bleaching cloth.  In ancient China it had medicinal uses and later was used in gunpowder.

Among scientists there was uncertainty over whether sulfur was a compound or an element.  It would be left to Antoine Lavoisier, considered by many to be the Father of Modern Chemistry, to settle the matter and identify sulfur as an element in 1777.

The name itself comes from the Latin, “sulphur,” which is derived from a word meaning “to burn.”  This has led to alternative spellings for the element, either “sulfur” or “sulphur” being acceptable.

Today, sulfur is used as a means to derive other chemicals that include it as a component.  Foremost among them is sulfuric acid, a highly corrosive mineral acid.  It is capable of corroding metals, human flesh, even stone.  Like an element from which it is derived, it has an alternative name – “Oil of Vitriol.” 

Sulfur is also used in the vulcanization process for rubber, making it more durable.  It is an important process in the manufacture of hockey pucks.  It is used in the manufacture of fungicides and pesticides, and in food preservation.  It is an essential component of all living cells, a part of amino acids produced or ingested by the body and contained in proteins and enzymes.  The bonds that sulfur forms in peptide chains (short amino acid chains as opposed to the longer amino acid chains that form proteins) lend durability and rigidity.  There are some organisms that use sulfur (via hydrogen sulfide) as an energy source.  Others “breathe” sulfur (via sulfates).  You might be familiar with the latter; some “sulfate-reducing” bacteria reside in the intestine and produce a foul smelling gas – flatulence.

To recap, we have the original “brimstone” visiting the horrors of hell upon the wicked.  Its name derives from words meaning “to burn.”  It is the business element in the highly corrosive sulfuric acid. It is also used to make things stronger, and more durable.  It can be used as an energy source.  It resembles a high-energy player who can be highly corrosive on the ice, a player who lends some strength and rigidity to his team, and who can serve something of a medicinal purpose through either his production or his physical style of play.

Sulfur… the “Tom Wilson” of the table of elements of the periodic table.

Washington Capitals 2013-2014 Previews -- Forwards: Alex Ovechkin

Alex Ovechkin

Theme: “Patience and time do more than strength or passion.”

-- Jean de La Fontaine

In 2004, when Alex Ovechkin was drafted by the Washington Capitals, the young winger said, “I've been waiting for this day for maybe two years."   Nine years later, Caps fans are still waiting for the Stanley Cup that was almost assumed to be waiting for the engraver on that draft day.  It certainly is not the fault of Alex Ovechkin that the Caps have not won a championship; there are too many factors that impact an outcome in hockey for even a player of Ovechkin’s stature to command.

It has not been the smoothest of rides for Ovechkin, even with all the individual awards and accolades bestowed upon him.  Hart Trophies… suspensions.  First team all-star nominations… bitter Olympic defeat.  Regular season titles… early playoff exits.  It has been an uneven ice sheet on which Ovechkin skated over his first seven seasons.  And, when he stumbled out of the gate to start the abbreviated 2013 NHL season after being an outspoken supporter of the lockout that consumed almost half of the regular season, it looked as if he would hit another deep rut on the ice sheet.

Ovechkin started the 2013 season learning a new position – right wing – while still being the go-to guy for the Caps.  It showed.  He started the season 5-5-10 in his first 16 games, at one point balking at the move to right wing, at which point new head coach Adam Oates reassigned him to his new position, only it was playing alongside Jay Beagle and Joey Crabb.  The Caps stumbled to a 5-10-1 record in those 16 games.

Then, February 23^rd happened.  After a scoreless first period against the New Jersey Devils, Ovechkin scored on a one-timer from the left wing circle 5:20 into the second period.  By the time the final horn sounded, Ovechkin had a hat trick and an assist, and the Caps had a 5-1 win.  Starting with that game, Ovechkin would finish the last 32 games with a 27-19-46 scoring line, a 69-goal pace per 82 games.  He recorded a goal in 19 of those 32 games.  There were only 17 players in the league who finished the entire 48-game season with as many as 19 goals.

As Ovechkin went, so went the Caps.  He scored goals in 24 of 48 games overall.  In the 24 games in which he recorded a goal, the Caps had a record of 19-3-2.  Washington was 11-3-1 in games in which Ovechkin recorded a power play goal.  The Caps were only 8-15-1, however, in the 24 games in which he failed to record any goal.

However, this being Ovechkin, his high accomplishment – a regular season that would end with his third Hart Trophy as most valuable player and third Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer – would be accompanied by another playoff low.  He would be held to two points in a seven-game first round playoff loss to the New York Rangers and would not score a goal after netting one in Game 1.  That he suffered a broken foot blocking a shot in Game 6, playing through the injury in the last two games of the series, is likely to be remembered far less than his suffering another early playoff exit.

Fearless’ Take…

Only three players in the history of the NHL have won more Hart Trophies than Alex Ovechkin – Wayne Gretzky, Gordie Howe, and Eddie Shore.  Only Gretzky and Mario Lemieux have won more Ted Lindsay Awards as most outstanding player.  No one has won more Richard Trophies.  He is one of only 26 players in the history of the league to win an Art Ross Trophy as leading scorer.  He is a six-time first team NHL all-star, including last season.  And, he has done this while being remarkably durable for a player who plays as physical a game as he does.  In eight seasons he has missed 21 of 622 regular season games and none of the 58 playoff games for the Caps in six post-seasons.  He has four 50-goal seasons in eight years and was on an 82-game pace for a fifth last season.  No other player has more than two 50-goal seasons over that period. 

Then there are the playoffs.  For all the grief Ovechkin has taken in six post-seasons, only six players have more goals in those six years (all of them have played in at least ten more games), and only 11 have more points (again, all have played in at least ten more games).  These are things to keep in the back of your mind when the inevitable Mike Milbury screed comes oozing through your television screen this season.

Cheerless’ Take…

We can put this whole thing about whether Ovechkin is a great player under the back porch for good.  He is.  But… there is that whole playoff thing.  And for a finisher, he hasn’t been too much of a "finisher."  In six seasons the Caps have played 12 games in which they could have eliminated their playoff opponent.  They are 3-9 in those games.  Ovechkin is 5-3-8, minus-3 in those games and has not had a point in his last four series clinching opportunities, three of which the Caps lost.  He is 2-2-4, minus-2 in Game 7’s and has not had a point in his last three such games, two of which the Caps lost.  In his last 21 post-season games overall he is 6-5-11, minus-4. When this trend gets reversed, maybe those early exits do, too.

The Big Question… Will moving to the Metropolitan Division cramp Alex Ovechkin’s style?

Alex Ovechkin has played his entire career to date in the Southeast Division.  In 203 career regular season games against the “Southleast,” Ovechkin finished 123-147-270, plus-35.  On a per-82 games basis that works out to 50-59-109, plus-14.  Impressive.  Now, what is his per-82 game scoring line against non-Southeast Division teams over his career?  It is 51-45-96, plus-10.  Ovechkin has hardly pumped up his numbers against the perceived “weak sisters” of the Southeast. 

One could, however, make the point that comparing last year’s production against the Southeast against that of the teams that would make up the new Metropolitan Division, Ovechkin did benefit from weak Southeast competition.  He was 16-13-29, plus-10 in 18 games against the Southeast, 10-8-18, minus-2 in 20 games against teams that today make up the new Metropolitan Division (he did not play against Columbus last season).

His career suggests that he will get his goals in the new division, but he might not get his points.  That is where the rest of the club is going to step up and finish or clean up chances or rebounds Ovechkin provides on the ice.

In the end…

We are past the time when a Stanley Cup is to be assumed in the Ovechkin era.  The Capitals are thought as much to be no more than a playoff bubble team as they are a real contender.  Whether the Caps are or are not a playoff team, let alone a serious Stanley Cup contender, Alex Ovechkin is likely to get his goals and points.  He and head coach Adam Oates seem to be on the same page to a greater extent than Ovechkin has been with any of his previous three coaches.  Oates, who had no training camp and barely half a season to find ways to deploy Ovechkin, has a full training camp to add new wrinkles, and Ovechkin has the benefit of 48 games plus a post-season at a new position.  He might not score goals at a 55-goal pace over 82 games, as he did last year in 48 games, but that might be a product a number of factors over which Ovechkin has little control.  For example, the current state of the NHL these days, scoring-wise, or the fact that the power play will have changes made to it with the departure of Mike Ribeiro to Phoenix.

Still, Ovechkin is – and will remain for the foreseeable future – the proverbial straw that stirs the drink for the Caps.  If he is not the rambunctious kid who celebrated every goal by abusing the glass along the walls or putting teammates in physical jeopardy, he seemed to have a bit more joy about him last year than he had in either of the previous two seasons.  That sort of energy can be a source of momentum for the club as much as the volume of production he generates at the offensive end of the ice.

Alex Ovechkin is still compiling a body of work, but he is now a much more fully formed player than in those early days.  As far as his total game is concerned, he is not likely to ever approach his goal-scoring peak, but he is probably a more rounded all-around player (even if there will be times when his defense looks uninspired).  Whether that will be enough to finally push him – and the Capitals – to the summit of the league, well, we are at the point where we can only be patient and let time answer that question.

Projection: 82 games, 44-46-90, plus-16

Photo: Source: Bruce Bennett/Getty Images North America