The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 39: Capitals at Maple Leafs, January 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals embark on a treacherous two-game road trip this week that will provide a stiff test after a very successful December and start to the new year (10-2-3).  First up, it is the Toronto Maple Leafs, who relieved head coach Randy Carlyle of his duties on Tuesday.  The Leafs, following in the footsteps of the New Jersey Devils, have named Peter Horacheck and Steve Spott as interim coaches. 

The firing of Carlyle comes as the Leafs are stuck in neutral.  When play started in December, Toronto was 12-8-3.  Their 27 standings points were good for fifth in the Atlantic Division and seventh in the Eastern Conference.  On the day Carlyle was fired, they found themselves with a record of 21-16-3 (9-8-0 since December 1st), sitting fourth in the Atlantic Division but eighth in the conference.

What is worse, and what is the proximate cause of Carlyle’s firing, is that Toronto is 2-7-0 in their last nine games and have scored only 20 goals while giving up 35.  This is a team that simply cannot win if it cannot score.  In 22 games this season in which the Maple Leafs have scored fewer than four goals in regulation and/or regulation and overtime, they are 5-14-3.  Couple that with the fact that the Maple Leafs are 1-12-1 in 12 games when allowing four or more goals in regulation and/or regulation and overtime, and this is a team that simply has to score – and often – to win.

Toronto has allowed 40 or more shots on goal 11 times in 40 games this season, tops in the league by a comfortable margin (Colorado: 8).  While they have a respectable 6-5-0 record in such games, it is a symptom of a larger problem.  They are entirely too loose in the defensive side of the game and put entirely too much pressure on their goaltenders to make too many saves on a night-to-night basis.

In their latest 2-7-0 skid, the Leafs are led in goals and overall points by James van Riemsdyk (4-5-9) who has painstakingly put together a season that builds off of last year’s career year (30-31-61 in 80 games).  In 40 games this season he is 17-20-37, second on the team in goals and points.  Like the rest of the team, however, he either struggles with defense or is a victim of a team-wide problem.  He is third among forwards in even-strength goals against/on-ice and one of five forwards on the club who has been on ice for more than 30 goals against (only 59 forwards league-wide have been on ice for more than 30 goals).  As if things weren’t bad enough, he suffered a broken nose in a 3-1 loss to Minnesota last Friday when he was struck by a shot from the stick of teammate Tyler Bozak.  In 16 career games against Washington, he is 5-7-12, minus-1.

Phil Kessel is thought of primarily as a goal scorer.  In the 2-7-0 stretch, however, he has but a single goal while recording six assists.  His lone goal, part of a 4-3 Gimmick win over Boston on New Year’s Eve, is his only goal over his last nine contests.  He has had a goal scorer’s streakiness this season, enduring streaks of five and six games without a goal, while scoring goals in consecutive games five times.  In 28 career games against the Caps, Kessel is 6-14-20, even.

Playing in goal has been no picnic for either Jonathan Bernier or James Reimer.  The pair have combined to face 34.1 shots per 60 minutes (compare that to the Washington pair of Braden Holtby and Justin Peters, who have combined to face 28.2 shots per 60 minutes).  Of the two, Bernier has held up better.  While his goals against average is middle of the road (2.67, 26th of 42 qualifying goalies), a product of the shot volumes he faces, his .920 save percentage is quite respectable (11th overall).  His .929 save percentage at even strength is tenth among 39 goalies appearing in at least 15 games.  In four career appearances against Washington, Bernier is 3-1-0, 2.01, .932.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  It might surprise you to know that Toronto has allowed fewer first period goals (35) than the Los Angeles Kings (37).  That is where the comparison ends.  The Maple Leafs have allowed 41 second period goals to the Kings’ 32, and they have allowed 43 third period goals to the Kings’ 25.

2.  Slugfests are the Maple Leafs’ stock and trade.  No, not the sort born of fisticuffs, but rather blowout games.  Of the Maple Leafs’ 40 games to date, 22 have been decided by three or more goals, by far most in the league (Buffalo: 18 in 40 games).  Toronto is 13-9 in such contests.

3.  As for the fisticuffs, a team once known for its “truculence,” the Maple Leafs are comparatively meek these days.  Having led the league in fighting majors last season (48), Toronto has just seven fighting majors this season.  Dion Phaneuf leads in that category with three.

4.  It probably surprises no one that Toronto has been outshot 29 times in 40 games (record: 15-13-1).  What might surprise you is that they do not lead the league in games out-shot by opponents.  New Jersey has been out-shot 31 times in 41 games (13-12-6), and Buffalo has been out-shot (33 times (10-21-2).  It probably has not escaped your attention that those two teams rank 14th and 15th, respectively, in the Eastern Conference.

5.  The Caps would do well not to let the Maple Leafs take a lead into the second intermission.  When doing so, only three teams in the Eastern Conference have a better winning percentage than Toronto (.933/14-1-0).

1. Only Montreal (13) and the New York Islanders (12) have more road wins than the Capitals (11) so far this season in the Eastern Conference.

2.  Washington reached the 10-win mark in one-goal games with their 4-3 win over Florida on Sunday.  Given that 23 of the Caps’ 38 games have ended in one-goal decisions (10-6-7), improvement in this area might be key to a successful finish to the season.

3.  Washington’s recent tendency to giving up large numbers of power plays to opponents (29 in their last five games) is reflected in the fact that the Caps now have the tenth highest average penalty minutes per game (10.6) in the league.

4.  Toronto might not want to let the Caps go into that second intermission with a lead, either.  Only Tampa Bay (19) and Montreal (18) have more wins than the Caps (17).

5.  We know Toronto gives up a ton of shots.  Unfortunately, the Caps are not a team that handles such situations well.  Washington is 7-8-4 when outshooting the opposition, their .368 winning percentage ranking 26th in the league.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Toronto: Dion Phaneuf

When the coach is a casualty of poor performance, much of the attention turns to the team captain.  Dion Phaneuf has been in the league ten years, parts of six of them with the Maple Leafs, and he has been team captain since June 14, 2010.  Phaneuf’s headline numbers (2-20-22, plus-6) have been solid, consistent with his career averages.  And, he has points in each of his last four games (0-4-4).  He leads the team in ice time per game (23:34) and is tied for third on the team in power play points.  From a high level of observation, he has been a solid contributor.  However, things don’t seem quite right.  Since he took over as captain, Phaneuf’s team has a 157-140-37 record, has never finished higher than third in their division, and has been to the playoffs once.  Two coaches have been dismissed in his captaincy.  Is this record of misfortune his fault?  No, at least no more so than those of the Caps are the fault of their captain, Alex Ovechkin.  But it is upon his shoulders that a lot of the pressure exists in one of the most contentious media markets in all of hockey.  Few players in the league have a tougher job than Dion Phaneuf, especially these days.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

The other captain might be in midst of an extended hot streak.  In his last dozen games he is 7-6-13, plus-10 (that’s right, plus-10), and has five multi-point games.  He is on a three-game multi-point streak as the Caps visit Toronto.  He has inched up into a tie for sixth among goal scorers, and his plus-9 for the season is tied for 53rd among all skaters (remember than last season he was 884th of 886 skaters in that statistic).  His recent production mirrors the success of the Caps (8-1-3 over those same last dozen games).  But good as he has been recently, it almost goes to show that it is the supporting cast, which has been productive as well, that has been as much a reason for the Caps’ recent success.  And the Maple Leafs are a team against which Ovechkin might continue his good fortune.  He is 27-22-49, plus-4, in 34 career games against Toronto.

In the end…

The Toronto Maple Leafs pack more drama into a season than perhaps any half dozen teams you could mention.  A team that enters this game with a 2-7-0 record over their last nine games, that is hanging by a thread to a top-eight spot in the conference, and that has fired its coach in favor of a two-headed system for the time being certainly does not lack for drama.  Will it be a cause for the players to focus on the task at hand, or will it be a distraction?  For the Caps, it’s another day at the office.  Punch your time cards, and bring your lunch pails, and it will be a good start to the road trip.

Capitals 5 – Maple Leafs 3

A TWO-point night -- Game 38: Capitals 4 - Panthers 3

The Washington Capitals remained undefeated in the new year by getting goals from four different players in defeating the Florida Panthers, 4-3, on Sunday afternoon at Verizon Center.  The Caps carved out the win by scoring first, then falling behind before scoring three straight goals and holding on late for the victory.

It started for the Caps after a scoreless first period.  With Dave Bolland off for a hooking penalty as the first period ended, Alex Ovechkin scored his 19^th goal of the season on the ensuing power play.  It was rather standard fare for the Caps, the scoring sequence starting as Marcus Johansson skated the puck through the right wing faceoff circle before dropping it down to Nicklas Backstrom at the goal line extended to goalie Roberto Luongo’s left.  Backstrom wasted no time sending the puck through the slot to Ovechkin pinching down on the off wing.  Ovechkin’s one timer beat Luongo before the goalie could push across the crease, and the Caps had a 1-0 lead.

Florida took a lead when they scored goals just 1:25 apart shortly after the Ovechkin tally. Vincent Trocheck and Dylan Olsen scored to give the Panthers a 2-1 lead just 5:22 into the period.  The second half of the second period belonged to the Caps, though.  Brooks Laich tied the game in a case of the third time being the charm.  After Lunogo turned away two Laich attempts in a five second span, Laich got a third opportunity from the top of the left wing circle.  His slap shot through the legs of Panther defenseman Shane O’Brien flew past the left shoulder of Luongo, and the game was tied at the 12:13 mark.

The Caps took the lead for good in the last minute of the second period when Karl Alzner took advantage of some fierce forechecking by Eric Fehr to rifle a shot through a screen in front of Luongo to give the Caps a 3-2 lead at the second intermission.

Washington bought some insurance early in the third period when Andre Burakovsky picked up a puck that bounced off the stick of Ovechkin and slammed a shot past a diving Al Montoya, in for an injured Luongo in the Panther net.

The Caps would need that insurance as Nick Bjugstad got the Panthers within a goal in the final minute, snapping a shot from a severe angle over the left shoulder of goalie Braden Holtby.  It was as close as the Panthers would get, though, as the Caps skated off with a 4-3 win.

Other stuff…

-- Alex Ovechkin has his third multi-point game in a row (1-1-2).  It was the first time he has three multi-point games in succession in season since March 21-24, 2013 (he had three straight multi-point games that included the last game of that 2012-2013 season and the first two games of the 2013-2014 season).

-- Karl Alzner set a career high with his third goal of the season.  He has done it with efficiency, converting three of 30 shots so far this season, the only Capital defenseman with a shooting percentage of 10.0 percent or better.  Alzner finished with eight shot attempts (two shots on goal), which seems like two weeks’ worth for him.

-- The Alzner goal was the product of some gritty forechecking by Eric Fehr.  When Roberto Luongo stopped a dump-in behind his own net for Dylan Olsen, Fehr jumped up quickly to challenge Olsen.  Keeping Olsen from being able to control the puck, Fehr was able to one-hand a pass out from behind the net to Alzner, who was waiting inside the Panther blue line. From there it was a matter of Alzner getting the puck on net through a Brooks Laich/Joel Ward screen in front of Luongo for the score.

-- Nicklas Backstrom was 18-for-26 on faceoffs, Troy Brouwer was 6-for-6, and Jay Beagle was 7-for-11.  That’s pretty much owning the circle.

-- Florida finished with 32 shots on goal, making it four in a row in which the Caps allowed an opponent more than 30 shots on goal, the longest such streak of the season.

-- The Caps killed all five shorthanded situations they faced.  It was the first time they were perfect in killing five or more shorthanded situations since Opening Night against Montreal (5-for-5).

-- The Caps managed to roll lines with some measure of consistency.  Every forward finished with at least ten minutes of ice time; no forward skated more than 19 minutes. 

-- Eric Fehr and Troy Brouwer, two of the heroes of the Winter Classic, both finished without a shot on goal and only two shot attempts (each had an attempt blocked).

-- The Caps killed off another 5-on-3 situation, although this one (unlike the 1:31 situation they faced against Chicago on Thursday) lasted just 47 seconds.  Once again, they held the opponent without a shot on goal for the duration of the 5-on-3.

-- In bowling, converting a 4-7-10 split is quite an accomplishment.  Unfortunately, it does not work that way in hockey, but that is what it looked like when Mike Green, Jack Hillen, and Evgeny Kuznetsov collided at the Panther blue line after Kuznetsov whiffed on a shot attempt.  It set up a two-on-none break that resulted in Florida's first goal.

-- Alex Ovechkin leading his club with nine shot attempts is not uncommon.  Defenseman Aaron Ekblad leading his with 13 shot attempts (five on goal)?  Probably not nearly as common.

In the end…

The Caps passed a test of sorts with this game. With three days off after their biggest regular season game of the season, coming at the end of the holidays, the Caps might have sleepwalked through this contest.  It was not their sharpest effort of the year, but it was a gritty win nonetheless.  Slowly and surely, the Caps have positioned themselves to make a leap in the standings with their play over the last month.  They are just two points behind the Detroit Red Wings for fifth place in the Eastern Conference with a game in hand, and they are just five points behind Tampa Bay for fourth place with two games in hand. 

The Caps will be tested, though, as they embark on a back-to-back set of games in Toronto and in Philadelphia on Wednesday and Thursday, the first of four back-to-backs they will play over the next four weeks.  They seem well prepared for that test, though, with solid play that has carried over for more than a month, doing what they need to do to grind out wins on a regular basis.  Just what they will need as the long nights of winter begin.

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 13

For the Washington Capitals, Week 13 carried with it a light work load, but it continued a nice trend.  The Caps enjoyed their fifth straight winning week despite considerable distractions.  By week’s end they were the darlings of national media, but more important climbed one spot in the Eastern Conference standings to seventh place and kept pace with a streaking New York Rangers team that itself was winner of nine of their last ten games.

Record: 1-0-1

The Caps opened the week against a team that, if the playoffs ended today, they would face in the first round of the playoffs, the New York Islanders.  It was an interesting game.  By the time the game reached the four-minute mark of the third period, the Caps were in a 3-0 hole.  Perhaps their attention was conflicted with the Winter Classic just three days away on their minds.  However, the Islanders had blown a three-goal lead in their previous contest and three overall three-goal leads in December.  The Caps would make sure those numbers would become two straight games and four in December when they scored three goals in less than 13 minutes to tie the contest and send it to overtime.  Johnny Boychuk won it in overtime for the Isles on a power play, but the Caps managed to pick up an important standings point in the process.

The second game of the week was the long-anticipated Winter Classic against the Chicago Blackhawks, a more complete look at which you can find here and here.  The win enabled the Caps to climb to .500 against Western Conference teams in standings points (5-5-2) and left them with a 37-26-16 record for the 2014 calendar year.

Offense 3.00/game (season: 2.89 / rank: T-10^th)

There being only two games played in Week 13, there was not a lot in terms of sharing of the six goals and the points recorded.  Four Caps accounted for the six goals, Alex Ovechkin and Eric Fehr each recording a pair, with Nicklas Backstrom and Troy Brouwer getting the others.  Seven players recorded points.  What was noteworthy there was Jack Hillen recording points in consecutive games for the first time this season and for the first time since he had a three-game points streak, April 13-18, 2013.  Mike Green recorded three assists in the two games, continuing a recent points-scoring trend.  Green is 1-7-8, plus-3, over his last seven games.

Back to the goal scorers, Eric Fehr scoring in both games of Week 13 made it three games in a row with at least one goal.  It is the first time he recorded goals in three straight games since he had goals in three consecutive games, March 14-18, 2010.  He is one off his career high of four games, February 7-15, 2009.  Starting with a game-winning goal against Carolina on December 4^th, Fehr has eight goals in his last 13 games.

Ovechkin appears to be awakening after a dormant period.  From November 29^th through December 18^th he recorded only two goals, both in a 5-3 win over Tampa Bay on December 9^th.  However, with the goals in each game of Week 13, Ovechkin has four goals in his last six games and is tied for sixth in the league with 18 goals.  Oh yeah, and for the record, he is plus-8 for the season, plus-13 in his last 19 games.

Defense: 3.00/game (season: 2.51 / rank: 11^th)

The Islanders and the Blackhawks represent two of the best offensive teams in the league, seventh and fifth, respectively, in scoring offense at week’s end.  Holding both teams at or below their average output in regulation counts as a decent week from a defensive standpoint.  Allowing more than 30 shots to the two opponents made it three straight games in which the Caps allowed an opponent more than 30 shots on goal, the first time that has happened this season. 

If you are Brooks Laich, you might be having bad dreams about this week.  He was on ice for all six goals scored against (oddly enough, he finished the week “even,” the product of being on ice for three goals (he was on ice for all three power play goals against).  John Carlson was on ice for four goals against for the week. 

It was not a particularly good week in the underlying numbers, but then again, it was a two-game week, making it hard to divine a trend.  Nevertheless, the Caps had a Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 of just 48.6 and a Fenwick-for percentage of just 46.7.  What they enjoyed was a plus-7 differential in scoring chances (all numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Goaltending: 2.93 GAA / .919 SV (season: 2.45 / .913 / 3 SO)

The last time Braden Holtby did not appear in a game was November 15^th, when backup Justin Peters dropped a 4-1 decision to the St. Louis Blues.  Since then, Holtby has appeared in 20 consecutive games and has played every minute save for the first and third periods in a 6-2 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs on November 29^th.  Over those 20 appearances Holtby is 12-4-4, 2.20, .926, with two shutouts.

Those 20 appearances included both games of Week 13 in which Holtby stopped 64 of 68 shots (.941 save percentage).  Facing more than 30 shots in both games in Week 13 made it ten games this season in which Holtby faced at least 30 shots.  In those games he is 7-1-2, 2.08, .940, with one shutout.  Yes, he appears to thrive on work, both in terms of appearances and shot volumes, but at some point the Caps are going to have to give him a break.  That would seem likely in Week 14, when the Caps play four games, including a back-to-back in mid-week at Toronto and at Philadelphia.

Power Play: 1-for-8 / 12.5 percent (season: 23.0 percent / rank: 4^th)

The Caps are in a rut on their power play.  After Week 9 they had a season conversion rate of 28.2 percent and had just finished their eighth week at 20 percent or better.  Since then, however, the Caps are 6-for-42 (14.3 percent) and have dropped to 23.0 percent for the season.  In Week 13 they got the shots they wanted from the guys they wanted to get them.  Alex Ovechkin and Mike Green had three shots apiece of the 10 overall in the two games.  It was Troy Brouwer, though, who scored on his only power play shot of the week who converted, the game-winning goal against Chicago on Thursday.

Even if timely, getting a game-winning goal on a power play, it was not a particularly effective week.  It was not especially efficient, either.  The Caps recorded ten shots on goal from six players in 10:20 of total power play time. 

Penalty Kill: 10-for-13 / 76.9 percent (season: 78.0 percent / rank: 25^th)

For the first time since Weeks 4 and 5, the Caps allowed double digit power play opportunities in consecutive weeks.  It is part of a disconcerting trend.  In their last four games ending with Thursday’s win over Chicago, the Caps allowed opponents a total of 24 power play opportunities, three times allowing six or more in a game.  Over that span the Caps are 19-for-24 on the penalty kill (79.2 percent) and twice allowed two power play goals in game. 

One of those games was against the New York Islanders in which the Caps gave up two goals in seven shorthanded situations.  What no doubt influenced that result was having to skate shorthanded in overtime, when the Caps were playing 3-on-4.  New York managed five shots on goal in 2:53 of power play time (Evgeny Kuznetsov was serving a four-minute double minor penalty) to escape with the win.  From that perspective, having allowed only 19 shots on goal in 18:31 of shorthanded ice time was not an altogether poor outcome.  The problem was the 18:31 in shorthanded ice time.  Spending 15 percent of their ice time for the week killing penalties is not a sustainable formula for success for the Caps.

It was the penalty kill that might have saved the week, however.  In their 3-2 win over Chicago on Thursday, the Caps killed off a 5-on-3 power play lasting 1:31 without allowing a shot on goal. 

Even Strength Goals for/Goals Against: 5-2 / plus-3 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.09 / rank: 12^th)

Don’t look now, but even strength scoring is becoming something of a strength for the Caps.  Week 13 was the fifth consecutive week in which the Caps finished on the plus side of the even strength ledger.  Over those five weeks the Caps have outscored opponents by a 36-18 margin at evens, a goals for/goals against ratio of 2.00:1 over a 14-game span.  It is not likely a coincidence that the Caps are 9-2-3 over those 14 games.

The Caps’ ability to sustain strong 5-on-5 play seems likely to be a larger factor in their success than fixing a wonky power play.  Last season the Caps finished 23^rd in 5-on-5 goals-for/goals-against and missed the playoffs.  They were over 1.00 in their for/against ratio in each of their six consecutive playoff seasons:

• 2007-2008: 1.06
• 2008-2009: 1.10
• 2009-2010: 1.57
• 2010-2011: 1.07
• 2011-2012: 1.01
• 2012-2013: 1.07

This number bears watching as the season unfolds.

Faceoffs: 64-for-139 / 46.0 percent (season: 50.5 percent / rank: 13^th)

It was not an especially good week in the circle for the Caps.  They were underwater in both games and in both the offensive and defensive zones for the week.  Five Caps took more than ten draws for the week, and only Troy Brouwer was over 50 percent (8-for-13; 61.5 percent).  The Caps had trouble in the ends, going 41.5 percent in both the offensive (17-for-41) and defensive (22-for-53) zones.  The Caps did manage to win one important draw that allowed them to salvage a point against the Islanders.  It was Nicklas Backstrom beating Casey Cizikas on the draw that allowed Alex Ovechkin to score the game-tying goal late in regulation against the Islanders.

Goals by Period:

The Caps generally started well (two goals against the Blackhawks in the first period) and finished well (three against the Islanders and the game-winner against Chicago).  It was in the middle that the Caps were lacking, scoring no goals for the week on 18 total shots.  Even with the Caps being outscored, 2-0, in the second period of games this week, they continue to have a positive goal differential in each regulation period for the season.  As for the overtime record (3-4), the odd fact is in the losses.  In three of the four losses in overtime this season the Caps were shorthanded when victimized, including this week’s loss to the Islanders.  It is the second time this season that the Caps lost to the Islanders on an overtime power play goal, the third coming against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

In the end…

Slow and sure wins the race.  Not that a 9-1-3 record over their last 13 games is “slow,” but the Caps have done a very good job grinding out points over the last month, securing 21 of a possible 26 points over those 13 games.  In Week 13 they converted opportunities late – a game-tying goal with 2:41 left in regulation to earn a point against the Islanders and a game-winning goal with 12.9 seconds left to make it a three-point week.  On the one hand, it might be playing a bit uncomfortably on the margin.  On the other, it is the sort of experience in close games that the Caps will find valuable down the stretch and, hopefully, in the post-season to follow.

Three Stars:

• First Star: Alex Ovechkin (2-2-4, plus-3, ten SOG, 25 shot attempts)
• Second Star: Eric Fehr (2-0-2, even, became all-time leader in goals scored in Winter Classic games)
• Third Star: Troy Brouwer (1-0-1, GWG in Winter Classic, 61.5 percent wins in faceoffs)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 38: Panthers at Capitals, January 4th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to the grind of the regular season after their thrilling 3-2 win over the Chicago Blackhawks on New Year's Day as they host the Florida Panthers on Sunday afternoon at Verizon Center.  If ever there was going to be a “trap” game, this is it for the Caps.  After spending a month with the cameras of EPIX recording their preparation for the Winter Classic, for all the run up to the game itself, and finally the climax of the month – the game itself and the last-minute win before more than 42,000 fans and a national television audience – the Caps host Game 38 of the season against an opponent without the pedigree of the Chicago Blackhawks.

That team also happens to be a very difficult one to play against.  Despite not having a point scorer in the top-100 of the league, despite not having a goal scorer among the top-20 (and only two among the top-65), and despite being a bottom-five team in scoring offense and power play, the Panthers found themselves on the cusp of the top-eight in the Eastern Conference, just one point behind the New York Rangers for eighth place and just two points behind the Capitals for sixth place through Friday's action.

How do they do it?  They are a pain in the backside for 60 minutes (or more).  Yes, they don’t score much (2.19 goals/game), but they do not allow much, either (2.44/game).  What it means is that playing the Panthers is a frustrating experience.  Almost half of their games so far have ended with four or fewer total goals being scored (17 of 36), and their record in those games is very good (9-3-5).

Individually, no one Panther is likely to strike much fear in their opponents.  Nick Bjugstad leads the club in goals (14) and points (22).  No team has a leading scorer with fewer points than Florida (Jaromir Jagr for New Jersey and Eric Staal for Carolina each had 22 points after Friday night’s action).  Bjugstad, a 19^th overall pick in the 2010 entry draft, is almost certainly going to eclipse his career high in goals shortly (16 in his rookie year last season) and is on a pace to top his career best in points (38, also set last season). 

Bjugstad’s performance has earned him a brand new six-year contract worth $24.6 million that will start next season.  In terms of his recent performance, Bjugstad has points in three of his last four games (2-1-3) after going five contests without one.  Eight of his 14 goals and 13 of his 22 points have come in road games this season.  In six career games against the Caps, Bjugstad has one assist and is a plus-2.  Oh, and a game-winning trick shot.

When Aaron Ekblad was taken first overall in last summer’s entry draft by the Panthers, it was hardly a stretch to think he would start the season with the big club, a team that was returning only one defenseman who reached the 20-point mark with the team (Brian Campbell: 7-30-37).  Ekblad did start the season with the parent club, and he has provided no reason to think it was anything but the right decision. 

Ekblad leads all rookie defensemen in scoring by a wide margin (21 points to 12 for New Jersey’s Damon Severson through Friday), and his five goals lead rookie defensemen as well.  His 50 hits ranks second among rookie defensemen, and his 39 blocked shots tops the list.  His 21:58 in total ice time per game is second among rookie defensemen (Severson: 23:01).  He has slowed down a bit of late in the offensive end of the ice.  After putting together a five-game points streak to start the month of December, he is 0-3-3 in his last ten games, although all of those points have come over his last six games.  He did not score a point in either game against Washington this season.

So, who is hot for the Panthers?  Those of you saying, “Jimmy Hayes,” pick up your prize in the lobby.  Florida has 14 goals scored over their last five games, and Hayes has four of them (4-1-5).  The recent explosion in production has Hayes matching his career best in goals scored (11, set last season in 53 games) and points (18, also last season).  Here is the thing with Hayes, though.  He has been on ice for 15 goals at 5-on-5 in 28 games played, third highest among Panther forwards and highest on a goals-per-game basis among forwards playing in at least 20 games.

Here is how the teams compare overall:

1.  Florida is among the worst starting clubs in the NHL.  With 20 first period goals they rank 18^th, ahead of only Buffalo (15) and Montreal (14).  Only 16 times in 36 games have they scored first; only five teams have done so fewer times.  They are tied for 10^th in the league in leads taken into the first intermission (10 times). 

2.  Florida has played in 24 one-goal decisions in 36 games.  Only Anaheim has played in more (25).  The Panthers are 13-2-9 in those games, 13^th in winning percentage.

3.  Despite being among the lowest scoring teams in the league, they do score.  Only once this season have the Panthers been shut out, a 1-0 loss to the Ottawa Senators in Game 3 of the season.

4.  A big part of Florida’s scoring problem is their power play.  Not only is it rather ineffective (14.6 percent; 27^th in the league going into Saturday’s games), but it gets very little in the way of opportunities.  Only Boston has had fewer man advantage opportunities (91) than the Panthers (110).

5.  Underlying it all, Florida is not a bad possession team.  They rank ninth overall in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (52.2), and they do it while possessing the seventh fewest Corsi events per 60 minutes (combined with opponents) per 60 minutes.  They do “dull” very well. War-on-ice .com

1.  When the Caps beat the Chicago Blackhawks on New Year’s Day, it marked the team’s third straight home win.  It is their longest home winning streak of the season to date.

2.  Odd fact about the Capitals’ power play.  Despite its reputation for effectiveness, only three teams have scored fewer power play goals at home so far this season than the Caps (17).  Philadelphia, Vancouver, and Ottawa each have scored 16 power play goals at home.

3.  No team in the league has taken a lead into the third period of games more frequently than the Caps.  In 19 such instances they are 16-1-2.  Only Montreal (18-1-0) and Pittsburgh (17-1-1) have more wins when leading at the second intermission.

4.  Blowouts favor the Caps.  They have the third best winning percentage in games decided by three or more goals (.750/6-2).

5.  Possession by period has been a bit of an issue for the Caps, particular late in games.  Their Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 in the first period of games ranks 13^th in the league (51.3), and their Corsi-for percentage in the second period of games ranks seventh (52.2).  In the third period they rank 21^st (49.2). http://war-on-ice.com/teamtable.html

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Florida: Roberto Luongo

If you want to know just how it is that the Panthers have lingered on the edge of playoff contention, look no further than their number one goaltender.  Roberto Luongo ranks tenth in the league in goals against average (2.22) and eighth in save percentage (.926).   These are fine numbers for Luongo and the Panthers, but then again, they have to be.  Luongo is 11-1-4 when allowing two or fewer goals, but he is just 4-6-3 when allowing more than two.  When one considers that he has allowed more than three goals in just four games this season, it becomes clearer that as Luongo goes, so go the Panthers.  They simply do not have the offense to make up for an off night by Luongo, and they struggle often when he is merely "average."  He will be coming into this game on a mini-hot streak, having allowed only one goal on the last 69 shots he has faced dating back to the third period of a 6-4 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs on December 28^th (.986 save percentage).  He is 20-10-2, 2.25, .928, with two shutouts against the Caps in his career.

Washington: Andre Burakovsky

After earning a spot in the lineup to start the season, then going 3-9-12, plus-5, playing mostly on a scoring line while averaging almost 14 minutes a game in his first 15 games in the NHL, the world was Andre Burakovsky’s oyster.  Then the rookie stumbled, recording only a goal in his next 13 games, going minus-5, and averaging less than 12 minutes a game in primarily fourth line duty.  It appears he might be getting another chance to skate on a scoring line.  He was skating with Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Ovechkin on the top line in Saturday’s practice.  It might be a default option for the Caps, since Tom Wilson and Jay Beagle (among others) have not provided quite the production one might expect from a top line winger.  This might be a long process with March 2^nd in mind.  The Caps have lacked a consistent winger on that top line to match with the Ovechkin-Backstrom pair, and if Burakovsky does not work out, this might be what the Caps target at the trading deadline. 

In the end…

When the Capitals won the 2011 Winter Classic in Pittsburgh, they followed it up by going into a six-week funk, compiling a 6-6-5 record over their next 17 games and scoring only 33 goals in the process.  Only twice in that 17-game span did they score more than three goals.  In those 17 games they were shut out three times, twice by 1-0 scores, and one of those in overtime.  That is what the Caps must guard against coming out of the win on Thursday.  And, the Panthers are just the sort of team that can put a team in a funk with their station-to-station, clog-things-up style of play.  It will be a measure of the maturity of this team to set aside the fireworks and hoopla of New Year’s Day and get back down to business in a season in which the Caps are far from certain of reaching the playoffs.

Capitals 3 – Panthers 2

A TWO-Point Classic: Capitals 3 - Blackhawks 2

The Washington Capitals are Kings of the Classic.  With their last-minute 3-2 win over the Chicago Blackhawks on New Year’s Day, the Caps became the first team in the seven-game series to date to win two games.  We penned a summary of the day’s events that you can read here.  However, we did have a few more thoughts on the game.

If there has been a common thread in the Capitals’ arc over the last six or seven years, it is that they do not handle adversity well in big games.  This has been a common theme in their playoff disappointments, and it has crept into rivalry games as well (see the recent long losing streak to the Pittsburgh Penguins, for example).  Yesterday was a big game on a big stage against a big time opponent.  And when the Caps got out to a two-goal lead, they encountered the demon – a two-headed sort of the formidable Chicago Blackhawks and their own propensity recently to wear a path to the penalty box.

Fans might have been forgiven if they were thinking, “oh, here we go again,” when the Blackhawks tied the game on a power play and a giveaway behind their own net with barely three minutes gone in the second period.  This is the point where, in almost any big game you can think of over the past half-dozen years, the Caps would have wilted.

They did not.  They stopped the bleeding, in part due to the sturdy goaltending of Braden Holtby (for whom this might have been a coming out party into the light of elite goalie status) and in part to a steely resolve on the part of the skaters, who bent, but would not break as the Blackhawks mounted rush after rush. 

Head Coach Barry Trotz speaks of the Caps playing a “heavy” game, of being a hard team to play against.  That is all well and good, but a team has to have the fortitude to impose its will upon an opponent to play that sort of game.  That was the fault line upon which this game was played.  The Caps wanted to wear down the Blackhawks along the walls and in the corners, and wreak havoc in front of goaltender Corey Crawford.  Chicago wanted to play the game between the dots over the 200-foot ice surface, using speed and skill to get pucks behind defenders and open up the middle of the ice to allow their talent to thrive. 

It was a back and forth game as far as those competing styles were concerned.  The Caps won the early battles and capitalized on getting numbers in front of the net when Alex Ovechkin batted home a rebound of a Mike Green shot.  The Blackhawks controlled the middle portion of the game in backing the Caps into their own end and using their skill and experience on a big stage to threaten the Caps’ net repeatedly.

The difference was that the Caps matched the Blackhawks in minimizing the damage despite the occasional advantages the other squad might have had in establishing its style of play.  What made the effort more impressive for the Caps was having to do it despite having to kill off three power plays in the second period, including a 5-on-3 power play that lasted 1:31.  On that power play the Blackhawks failed to record a shot on goal.

It might have been the turning point in the game.  At that point it was clear that the Caps could match the Blackhawks, thrust for thrust, challenge for challenge.  No less a commentator than Chicago head coach Joel Quenneville said later that it was the biggest factor in the loss, an inability to score in a 5-on-3 situation.  In a larger sense it might be the turning point for the season.  The Caps had the look of a team that has finally grown up.

Some other thoughts…

• If there is to be a regular rotation of sites for this contest, Washington should be in it.  For all the commentary about a lack of buzz about this game (of which we need to plead guilty as well), the game production was, from television at least, excellent.  The things that neither the league nor the Caps could control (that is, the weather) had something to do with this. It was a picture-perfect day.  But the things that they, and their television partners, could control came off very well, from the set piece of the teams skating down the “Reflecting Pool” to the rink to the production elements.  The only thing with which we might quibble was NBC being a little too free and easy with “cameras in motion.”  It was a bit dizzying at times.
• Referee-Cam… nice touch.  When the state of technology allows for an embedded camera in the goaltender’s mask, that might be a winner, too.
• This game is often a game for the grinders, if only because so much attention is paid to the stars.  Eric Fehr made good on that, but on a “star” sort of play when he jumped on a bouncing puck that eluded defenseman Brent Seabrook, beat Seabrook down the ice, then deked Crawford to the ice before sliding the puck past his left pad to open the scoring.  Fehr became the all-time goal scorer in this series to date, perhaps fitting for a guy who had a large part of his early career lost to injuries and who remade himself from a scoring winger to a grinding center (he won the faceoff that started the scoring sequence).
• Not that the stars were not heard from.  Alex Ovechkin and Mike Green each registered two points, and both did it in ways that were quite different from the way they might have done it earlier in their careers.  Ovechkin scored a goal that might have been characterized as “greasy,” pouncing on a rebound of a Mike Green shot that he swatted into the back of the net before Crawford could respond.  He assisted on the game winner when he carried the puck to the Blackhawk net, but had his stick slashed in two before he could get a shot off.  Troy Brouwer alertly pick up the puck, spun, and snapped a shot past Crawford.  Green assisted on the last two goals, although it might be hard to conjure a mental image of how he did it.  It was his shot that produced the rebound on Ovechkin’s goal, and it was he who collected the puck off a Brouwer face off win at center ice, then sent Ovechkin on his way with a cross-ice pass. In year’s past, it might have been “Game Over Green” being center stage on the game winner.
• For both Ovechkin and Green, it was less a case of being rock stars, of being the “Young Guns” of their early days, and just being hockey players, making plays, and being strong in the face of adversity.  It was something that could be said of the whole roster, a testament to the influence of head coach Barry Trotz, perhaps, but also to the maturity that seems to have taken over this team that allowed it to dig down and stand firm against a team of Stanley Cup pedigree.

This is something upon which this team can build as the 2015 portion of the season unfolds.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- The Winter Classic: Blackhawks at Capitals, January 1st

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Winter Classic has arrived.  After spending six New Year’s Days in Buffalo, Chicago, Boston, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, and Ann Arbor, the crown jewel of the NHL regular season schedule is finally in the most powerful city in the world.

The Washington Capitals will host the Chicago Blackhawks sometime on New Year’s Day at Nationals Park (the state of sun glare perhaps delaying the start) in what will be the second appearance for each team in the Classic.  The Blackhawks, who hosted the 2009 game at Wrigley Field, dropped a 6-4 decision to the Detroit Red Wings, while the Capitals, winners of a 3-1 decision in Pittsburgh in 2011, will be looking to become the first team to win two Classics.

It will not be an easy task for the home team.  Chicago currently holds the second best record in the league (25-10-2).  And, the Blackhawks might be on the most sustained run of success in the league.  Since they dropped a second consecutive game – a 1-0 loss to the Winnipeg Jets on November 2^nd to fall to 6-5-1 – Chicago is 19-5-1 and has not lost consecutive games in that span.

Not that there aren’t cracks starting to show in the Blackhawk armor, though.  They are 5-2-1 in their last eight games after rolling off an eight-game winning streak.  Part of the unsteadiness has been a product of goaltender Corey Crawford’s unsteadiness.  He suffered a foot injury when he took a misstep as he was leaving a concert. He missed eight games as a result, and his four appearances since returning to the lineup have not been sharp.  In those four appearances he is 2-1-1, 3.22, .887, and he was pulled after allowing three goals on 13 shots in 15:30 of a 5-1 loss to Winnipeg on December 23^rd.

Another factor that might have influenced the Blackhawks’ comparatively inconsistent record of late was the tragic passing of 34-year old assistant equipment manager Clint Reif on December 21st, a loss that was keenly felt by the Blackhawk community. 

Since the Christmas break the Hawks have won both games played, a 5-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche and a 5-4 Gimmick win over the Nashville Predators.  It suggests a return to the sort of high-powered offense that has Chicago third in the league in scoring per game (3.03).  In each of their last four wins they have scored at least four goals, while in their two losses over that span they scored two (against Columbus) and one goal (against Winnipeg).  At the moment, this is a team that does it (or doesn’t) with offense.

The Capitals finished a solid December with an 8-2-3 record.  It was a solid month in some ways, but they were fortunate in others.  The Caps outscored opponents by a 40-28 margin (3.08-2.15).   It was even better at even strength, where the Caps doubled up on opponents, 34-17.  That’s the good part, especially the even-strength production.  Underneath, though, it is not quite as solid. 

As far as the production numbers go, the special teams haven’t had a great month.  The PDO number overall (103.38; shooting plus save percentages) was very good, but as for the sustainability of it, it was fueled by an overall opponent shooting percentage of 7.1 percent.  That speaks to the fine month that Braden Holtby had (8-2-3, 2.13, .929, 2 shutouts).  The power play was just 6-for-43 (14.0 percent), and the penalty killers were no better: 36-for-46 (78.3 percent).  The special teams index of 92.2 (power play plus penalty killing percentages) was disappointing.

Drilling down even further, the Caps had a rather mediocre month in terms of their possession numbers.  At 5-on-5 they had a cumulative Corsi-for percentage of 50.41 and a Fenwick-for percentage of 48.44.  They were slightly better in 5-on-5 tied situations (Corsi-for: 51.83; Fenwick-for: 50.35), but not what one might call dominating. 

Which brings us to the players.  Ten skaters who participated in the 2011 Winter Classic in Pittsburgh are likely to be in the lineup on New Year’s Day at Nationals Park (with their performances):

• Alex Ovechkin (0-0-0, minus-1; six shots on goal)
• Eric Fehr (2-0-2, plus-2; 3 SOG)
• Nicklas Backstrom (0-1-1, minus-1; 3 SOG; 10-for-16 on faceoffs)
• Brooks Laich (0-0-0, even, 2 PIMs; 2 SOG)
• Jason Chimera (0-2-2, plus-2, 2 SOG)
• Karl Alzner (0-0-0, even; 24:25 in ice time)
• Mike Green (0-1-1, even, 2 PIMs; five hits)
• John Carlson (0-0-0, even; 26:28 in ice time (led club))
• Jay Beagle (0-0-0, even; four hits)
• Marcus Johansson (0-1-1, plus-2; 6-for-12 on draws)

You look at that lineup and the performances from the 2011 Classic, and you start to think that while the marquee players – Ovechkin, Backstrom, Green – will get the attention, it could be a game for the supporting cast.  The ice will not likely be as bad at Nats Park as it was in Pittsburgh, where it might have been more the consistency of a sno-cone in a persistent rain, giving an edge to the grinders, but still, sometimes it is the player you do not suspect who will shine, as Eric Fehr did in scoring two goals in the Caps’ 3-1 in Pittsburgh in 2011.

Who might that be coming into this game?  Jay Beagle comes to mind.  Beagle had a fine December (3-3-6, plus-5, in 13 games while getting as many as 15 minutes of ice time only once).  He was quiet in the only meeting with the Blackhawks this season (no points, one blocked shot attempt in 13 minutes), but that was the eighth straight game he had without a point to start the season.  Since then he is 5-5-10, plus-2, in 23 games.  Not bad for a fourth liner.

What you do not expect is for rookies to make a big impression in this game, at least based on the Caps’ experience.  Not that the Caps had a lot of rookies on that 2011 club – Carlson, Johansson, and Beagle.  Those three players combined for one assist, and the forwards (Johansson and Beagle) each skated only 13 minutes.  It argues against players such as Evgeny Kuznetsov or Andre Burakovsky standing out. 

What you might look for is a veteran stepping up.  Think of Mike Knuble scoring that greasy power play goal to tie the 2011 contest.  Not only was Knuble a player with a fair amount of mileage, he was one quite familiar to the Penguins after several seasons skating for the Philadelphia Flyers.   Perhaps Troy Brouwer, a player who skated for the Blackhawks for parts of five seasons and 238 games, plus an additional 43 post-season games with Chicago, will step up.  Brouwer has had an uneven December, starting the month without a point in three games, then going 4-0-4 over a five-game stretch, before ending the month with just one assist in his last five games.

1.  Only six Blackhawks who played in the 2009 Winter Classic at Wrigley Field are likely to dress for the 2015 game: Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Patrick Sharp, Jonathan Toews, Kris Versteeg, and Patrick Kane.  As a group they accounted for two of the four goals scored in their 6-4 loss to the Detroit Red Wings (Keith, Versteeg) and combined for four assists (Seabrook, Sharp, Toews, and Versteeg).

2.  Patrick Kane comes into this game hot enough to melt the ice.  He is 6-8-14, plus-4, over his last nine games, with two game-winning goals and two three point games.

3.  Jonathan Toews is not quite as hot as Kane, but he is not far off, either.  Over his last seven games he is 2-6-8, plus-4, with three multi-point games.  He has not gone more than two consecutive games without a point this season.

4.  The Blackhawks have already dressed ten defensemen this season.  Nine of them have points.  Only Tim Erixon has failed to get his name on the score sheet in five games played.

5.  If shots matter in a game like this, the Blackhawks are sitting in a good position.  They lead the league in shot differential per game (+6.6).

1.  Troy Brouwer played in that 2009 Winter Classic for the Blackhawks, recording one hit and going minus-1 in just under 12 minutes of ice time.

2.  The Caps have lost 13 one-goal games this season, six in regulation and seven in extra time.  Only four teams have lost more: Colorado (14), Ottawa (15), Edmonton (14), and Carolina (15).

3.  Only Montreal has a better winning percentage (1.000/15-0-0) than the Caps when scoring first (.850/17-1-2).  Then again, no team has a worse winning percentage (.063/1-10-5) when scored upon first.  If you’re not keen on standing in the stands on a cold day for the duration, this might be a fact to remember.

4.  The Caps have allowed seven power play chances in two of their last three games.  They haven’t allowed seven or more chances over a three-game span since they allowed seven and eight chances (to Tampa Bay and Toronto, respectively) in a three-game span over Games 45-47 of the 2009-2010 season.

5.  The Caps have 11 players with power play goals this season.  All of last season they had 11 players record power play goals.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Chicago: Corey Crawford

None of the goalies who will dress for this game were even in the NHL when the Blackhawks hosted the Red Wings in the 2009 Winter Classic.  That includes Corey Crawford, who played a total of seven games over the 2005-2006 and 2007-2008 seasons, but who spent the entire 2008-2009 season with the Rockford Ice Hogs in the AHL.  As we noted, he has not been especially sharp in his return from the injury suffered in his concert adventure, and he has a rather grisly career record against the Caps (2-2-1, 3.62, .875 in five career appearances).  Something to watch early – the volume of shots the Caps throw at Crawford.  He has faced more than 30 shots only four times in 22 appearances this season.  He has done well against high shot volumes (.924 save percwntage), but he has faced more than 30 shots only once since November 14^th, and in that one he allowed four goals on 40 shots to Nashville in a 5-4 Gimmick win this past Monday.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

If the Caps are going to rain shots down on Corey Crawford, chances are that the largest number of them will come from Alex Ovechkin.  He has been like a Gatling gun lately, although he has comparatively little to show for it.  Since he started a ten-game run of five or more shots per game with two goals on seven shots in a 5-3 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on December 9^th, he has only three goals on 60 shots (5.0 percent shooting).  Even with that two-goal game against Tampa Bay, Ovechkin has only five goals on 79 shots in his last 14 games (6.3 percent).  If there is something to the notion of big players playing big on the big stage, perhaps Ovechkin breaks out of his accuracy slump to start the new year.  He is 6-3-9, minus-2, in nine career games against Chicago.

In the end…

Here is a disturbing number hanging over this game: 5.  The visiting team has won five of six Winter Classics.  The Philadelphia Flyers were the only home team to win, a 2-1 overtime win over the Boston Bruins in 2010.  And, four of the six games have ended in one-goal decisions, three of them in extra time, another set of circumstances that does not seem to favor the Caps, given their record this season in one-goal games. Yeah, well…I got your numbers right here.

Capitals 5 – Blackhawks 3

A ONE-point night -- Game 36: Islanders 4 - Capitals 3 (OT)

The Washington Capitals wrapped up the 2014 portion of their 2014-2015 season last night by storming back from a 3-0 third period deficit to tie the New York Islanders before falling in overtime, 4-3, in their final game before their New Year’s Day meeting with the Chicago Blackhawks in the NHL Winter Classic.

The Caps fell behind, 3-0, allowing goals in three different situations – an even strength goal by Anders Lee in the ninth minute of the first period, a power play goal by Lubomir Visnovsky mid-way through the second period, and a shorthanded goal by Calvin de Haan less than two minutes into the third period.

Washington started their comeback three minutes after the Islanders’ third goal when Eric Fehr won a faceoff against John Tavares in the offensive zone to the right of goalie Jaroslav Halak.  Jack Hillen collected the puck and skated down the left wing wall, throwing the puck to the Islanders net where Brooks Laich and Fehr were converging.  Laich managed to take a swat at the puck, Halak making the initial save.  However, Fehr was left alone at the top of the crease, and he batted the rebound past Halak to make it 3-1 at the 4:40 mark.

The Caps crawled within a goal less than two minutes later.  De Haan tried to keep the puck under control outside the Caps’ blue line but lost the battle to Alex Ovechkin.  Skating up the right side, the Islanders’ Travis Hamonic tried to sweep the puck off Ovechkin’s stick, but all he got was air.  It created an opening in the middle that Nicklas Backstrom filled, and Ovechkin hit him in stride with a pass.  Backstrom broke in alone on Halak and snapped the puck over Halak’s glove to make it 3-2 with 6:29 gone in the period.

Washington tied the game late in the period starting with another faceoff win.  Backstrom beat Casey Cizikas on the draw to Halak’s right, pulling the puck back to Ovechkin.  From the top of the left wing circle, Ovechkin took a step to his right and fired a wrist shot that beat Halak to the long side with just 2:41 left in regulation.

In overtime, with Evgeny Kuznetsov off on a double minor penalty for high-sticking, Johnny Boychuk took a feed from Ryan Strome and with the extra space afforded him by the 4-on-3 situation, took a slap shot that beat goalie Braden Holtby to end the contest 2:53 into the extra session, the Islanders coming out on top, 4-3.

Other stuff…

-- The loss made the Caps 8-1-3 in their 12-game march through the Eastern Conference to end 2014.  The three losses in extra time left them with seven losses in overtime and the Gimmick, tied for most in the Metropolitan Division.

-- The shorthanded goal allowed by the Caps was their first such goal allowed this season, and they became the last team in the league to have played a game with a shorthanded goal scored for or against.  They remain one of four teams not to have scored a shorthanded goal this season.

-- The Caps allowed two power play goals, including the game-winner.  It was the third time in six games that Washington allowed two power play goals.  It was the second time in three games that the Caps allowed seven power plays (seven against the Rangers on December 23^rd).

-- The Caps allowed 39 shots on goal, the second time in four games that they allowed that many by the opposition (December 22^nd vs. Ottawa).

-- Perhaps it is worth noting that after Brooks Orpik went down with a knee injury, the Islanders out-shot the Caps, 11-2, over the remainder of the contest.  They out-attempted the Caps, 16-4.  Of course, the Islanders also had 5:57 in power play time over that last 10:13 of regulation and overtime, too.

-- The 8-1-3 run to close 2014 is the best 12-game in-season record for the Caps (19 standings points) since they closed the abbreviated 2012-2013 season with a 10-1-1 record (21 points).

-- With six shots on goal, Alex Ovechkin has registered five or more shots in ten consecutive games (67 shots). Just those 67 shots in ten games would rank him in a tie for 157th among 777 skaters having dressed this season in the NHL.

-- Every Capitals skater was credited with at least on hit except Jason Chimera, John Carlson, and Evgeny Kuznetsov.

-- The official scorer had an eye for theft.  He or she credited the two clubs with a total of 42 takeaways (18 by the Caps).

-- Allowing the game-winning goal on overtime puts the Caps in some rare air in which they would rather not find themselves.  Only Edmonton (five) and Colorado (six) have allowed more overtime goals than the Caps (four).

In the end…

It would have been nice to end the year on a higher note, given what the Caps accomplished this month.  Still, looking at the long view, an 8-1-3 record in 12 consecutive games against Eastern Conference opponents is something to build upon in the new year.  Attention now turns to the hoopla that is the Winter Classic, but let’s not forget that this is a game that counts in the standings, and the Caps are only one point ahead of the New York Rangers for third in the Metropolitan Division (the Rangers hold two games in hand), while the Boston Bruins (two points back) and the pesky Florida Panthers (three points back) lurk close by for a wild card spot.  There is no resting on laurels in the NHL, no matter how good a month you might have had.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 36: Capitals at Islanders, December 29th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals end the 2014 portion of their 2014-2015 schedule on Monday night when they visit the New York Islanders at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Uniondale, NY.  This will be the 200^th all-time regular season meeting of the clubs, a series that the Caps lead, 98-84 with 13 ties and four extra time losses.

The Caps and Islanders have split two games so far this season, New York winning the front half of a home-and-home series, 3-2, in overtime on November 26^th on Long Island.  The Caps got even with a 5-2 win on home ice on November 28^th.  The overtime win by the Islanders was typical of their season so far.  New York has won more extra time games overall (nine) than any team in the league and is tied for the league lead in wins via the Gimmick (six).  It is a team that has had very good fortune playing on thin margins.  While there are 18 teams than have played as many or more one-goal games as the Islanders (18), only Anaheim has more wins (17 in 23 games) than the Islanders (15 in 18 games).

Of late, the Islanders have been on a see-saw with respect to wins and losses.  Since losing to the Caps, 5-2, on November 28^th, New York won three straight, then lost three straight, followed that up with a four-game winning streak, and now find themselves losers of their last two games as they prepare to face the Caps.

With two games left on their December schedule, the Islanders face the Caps with a 6-4-1 record for the month.  John Tavares leads the Isles in goal scoring for the month (five) and comes into this game with three goals in his last three games.  Tavares has been a very consistent player this season, not having gone more than two games without a point so far.  He has two four-game point streaks this season and is looking for his third such streak when he faces Washington on Monday.  He is 10-7-17, plus-1, in 19 career games against the Capitals.

Kyle Okposo leads the Islanders in points for the month (3-7-10).  He, too, is coming into the game against the Caps on a three-game points streak (1-3-4), and he has three multi-point games in his last nine contests.  Despite the points production of late, Okposo has had a odd season of sorts.  With 119 shots on goal in 35 games, he is tied for ninth in the league and is on a pace to finish with his highest career shot total (279).  However, with only eight goals on those 119 shots he is on a pace to finish with his second lowest shooting percentage (6.7 percent) in his eight-year career.  He is 7-7-14, plus-6, in 20 career games against Washington.

Brock Nelson got off to a fast start with six goals and 12 points in his first nine games this season.  Since that hot start he is 8-7-15 in 23 games.  Nelson is, however, second on the team in goals for December (four) and has already matched his career high in goals (14) set in his rookie year last season.  He is 0-2-2 in five career games against the Caps.

Here is how the two clubs compare overall…

1.  Those 15 one-goal wins are the reason that the Islanders have the best winning percentage in one-goal games this season (.833).  In decisions not settled by one goal, the Islanders are rather ordinary (8-9).

2.  The Gimmick has been kind to the Islanders so far, almost obscenely so.  New York is 6-1 in the freestyle competition and have done it largely by converting their scoring chances.  They have 12 goals in 24 shots, tied for the top shooting percentage in the league.  The 12 goals scored is second only to the Florida Panthers.

3.  Part of the reason the Islanders have been successful in extra time is that they have allowed themselves to be forced into the extra session.  Only five teams have allowed more third period goals than the Isles (38), and they have a third period goal differential of minus-9 for the season.

4.  Only four teams have scored more goals at 5-on-5 than the Islanders (72), and only two teams have more shorthanded goals scored than the five that New York has posted. 

5.  Three times this season the Islanders have lost a game after taking a 3-0 lead.  All three instances have occurred this month.  They lost to St. Louis, 6-4, on December 6^th after taking a 3-0 first period lead.  They lost to Minnesota, 5-4, on December 9^th, after taking another 3-0 first period lead.  Finally, they lost to Buffalo, 4-3 in a Gimmick last Saturday after taking a 3-0 lead into the third period.

1.  Only the New York Rangers have earned more standings points against Metropolitan Division teams (23) than the Caps (20).

2.  The Caps enjoyed 14 power play opportunities in three games last week.  It is the most they have had in any three-game stretch this season and the most they had in any three-game stretch since they had 16 opportunities over the March 1-5 period last season.

3.  Where one-goal games have been a source of success for the Islanders this season, they have been less of one for the Caps.  Washington is tied for 22^nd in winning percentage in one-goal decisions this season (.400/8-6-6).  In decisions of more than one goal, the Caps are 10-5.

4.  All goals count, so we will not make too much of the fact that the Caps are tied for fourth in the league in empty net goals scored (five).  For the record, the scorers are: Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin, Joel Ward, Eric Fehr, and Brooks Laich.

5.  Washington, Pittsburgh, and Calgary are the only teams with five players with ten or more goals scored.  Marcus Johansson joined the club to make it five for the Caps when he scored against Pittsburgh on Saturday.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Jaroslav Halak

Number one Islander goaltender Jaroslav Halak last saw action on December 20^th, stopping 20 of 21 shots in a 3-1 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning.  He missed the Islanders’ last two games, however, with a lower-body injury (groin).  He practiced with the team on Sunday and seems likely to return to the net for the Isles on Monday night.   They could use him.  Since going 3-4-0, 3.44, .891 in his first seven appearances, he is 15-2-0, 1.78, .932, with three shutouts in his last 17 appearances.  And that includes a two-game hiccup in which he lost consecutive games to the St. Louis Blues after winning 11 straight decisions.  He is working on a four-game winning streak as the Caps come to town. He is 5-4-0, 2.65, .897 in nine career appearances against the Caps.

Washington: Matt Niskanen

Although Matt Niskanen was signed to a big contract in free agency by the Caps last summer, it was always unlikely that he would match the point total he put together for the Pittsburgh Penguins last season (10-36-46, plus-33 in 81 games).  He was not going to get the featured ice time, either at even strength or on the power play, with fellow right-handed shots John Carlson and Mike Green on the roster.  Still, Niskanen is without a point in his last six games and has just a goal and an assist in his last 13 contests.  In those six straight games without a point he has just five shots on goal.  He is not expected to be a heavy-duty scorer from the blue line, but if he can jump up a notch in production it would add a dimension that would make the Caps that much more difficult to play.  He has never scored a goal against the Islanders, but he does have ten assists in 17 career games.

In the end…

In the Caps’ 8-1-2 run through the Eastern Conference to end the calendar year they have outscored opponents by a 34-20 margin and have a special teams index over 100 (101.5, power play plus penalty killing percentages).  They are 3-0-2 in one-goal decisions, 5-1 in games decided by more than one goal.  Twice they won games in regulation when scoring just two goals, an issue with the club last season.  Braden Holtby has two shutouts in his last four games.  This is a team that is playing well and being rewarded for it.  On the other hand, the Islanders have a very nice record, but one wonders if the underlying numbers – a dependence on one-goal wins and extra-time success – is sustainable over a full season.  The “X” factor here is Jaroslav Halak, who has been arguably the best goaltender in the league since November 1^st.  If he is suffering any lingering effects from his groin injury, it could make it a long night for the Islanders.  Even if he is healthy, he will be facing a team that has been good on a consistent basis for the better part of a month.  It suggests that the Caps will spoon-feed the hosts a helping of reality to end 2014.

Capitals 4 – Islanders 2