The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 13: Maple Leafs at Capitals, November 7th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to the ice on Saturday night when they host the Toronto Maple Leafs at Verizon Center.  The Caps will be looking to move into double digits in wins and four in their last five games when they take on the Leafs.  Meanwhile, Toronto will be looking to break a four game winless streak on the road.

At home, the Caps have done it with a stifling defense.  In their five wins on Verizon Center ice so far, they held opponents to a single goal four times.  In fact, those four games holding opponents to one goal have come in their last four games at home. 

Meanwhile, the Leafs cannot seem to find the back of the net on the road.  In compiling a 1-4-1 record on the road so far, Toronto is averaging only 2.00 goals per game.  And if not for Leo Komaraov, who has four of their dozen goals, the Leafs would be in a deeper hole.  Komarov has been something of a road warrior for the Leafs.  Four of his five goals for the season have come away from Air Canada Centre.  It establishes something of a career trend for the three-year veteran.  Of his 17 career goals, 11 have come on the road.  None of those goals – home or road – have come at the Capitals’ expense.  He has two assists in six career games against Washington.

There are five players in the NHL with eight assists but without a goal so far this season.  Defenseman Dion Phaneuf is one of them going into Friday night’s schedule of games.   In fact, Phaneuf will come into this game without a goal in his last 33 games dating back to last season.  He has not scored a goal on the road in almost 11 months, last recording one at Carolina in a 4-1 loss to the Hurricanes on December 18, 2014.  Phaneuf, who was once an up-and-coming two-way defender with a physical edge, has seen his offensive production go into decline in recent years.  After scoring 10 goals in 48 games in 2011-2012 (0.19 per game), he was down to nine goals in 70 games last season (0.04 per game), and he is looking for his first tally this season.  In 18 career games against Washington, Phaneuf is 1-6-7, minus-8.

In goal for the Leafs, it’s pick your poison.  They have not settled on a number one netminder, largely because neither Jonathan Bernier nor James Reimer have played like one.  Bernier has more appearances (seven) than Reimer (six), but Reimer has a better goals against average (2.82 to 3.02) and a better save percentage (.908 to .899).  He also has both Toronto wins.  Reimer’s performance to date has not varied much from his career numbers to date (2.90 GAA, .913 save percentage).  He is 2-4-1, 2.87, .920 in seven career appearances against the Caps. 

Of Bernier, more was expected.  A former 11^th overall draft pick by the Los Angeles Kings, he put up fine numbers in his first season in Toronto after being traded to the Leafs in June 2013.  He was 26-19-7 in that first year with Toronto with a 2.68 goals against average and a .923 save percentage, tied for fifth in the league among goalies appearing in at least 40 games.  Last season, though, his numbers sank to 2.87/.912, and they have only gone further south to start this season.  After stopping 34 of 35 shots in dropping a 2-1 Gimmick decision to the Buffalo Sabres on October 21^st, arguably his best effort of the season, he is 0-3-3, 3.76, .869 in his last three appearance.  Bernier is 3-2-0, 2.62, .909 in five career appearances against Washington, but he will not be dressing for this game.  Bernier is on injured reserve with a lower body injury.

Here is how the two teams compare overall:

1.  Five teams have a negative goal differential of 1.00 goals per game or more going into Friday’s games.  Toronto is one of them (-1.00).  The others are Philadelphia (-1.15), Anaheim (-1.17), Columbus (-1.21), and Calgary (-1.71).

2.  No team has had fewer occurrences of scoring first in a game than the Maple Leafs.  They have scored the first goal of a game only twice, one in a 4-1 win over the Dallas Stars last Monday.  It might be worth noting that the buzz didn’t last long.  They allowed the game-tying goal less than a minute later.  The other came in a 2-1 trick shot loss to the Buffalo Sabres on October 21^st.  Toronto also has the fewest instances of leads taken into the first intermission (one, tied with Philadelphia).  That was also in the 2-1 freestyle loss to the Sabres.

3.  The Maple Leafs are one of two teams to have two defensemen with eight or more points.  Dion Phaneuf and Morgan Rielly are the point-getters for the Leafs.  The other club is Montreal, with P.K. Subban and Andrei Markov.

4.  If there is one thing this game is likely not to feature, it is a lot of power plays.  Pending the results of
Toronto’s game against Detroit on Friday night, they are tied for 27^th in the league in power play opportunities.  They team they are tied with – Washington.

5.  Mike Babcock teams in Detroit were possession monsters.  Never in ten seasons with the Red Wings did they finish a season below 51.4 percent in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5.  Never did they finish a season below 51.9 percent in score-adjusted Corsi-for percentage.  Babcock has made inroads in communicating that perspective to his new team.  Toronto ranks tenth overall in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (51.3) and eighth in close-score situations (52.4; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  Only the New York Rangers (7) have fewer first period power plays this season than the Caps (8, tied with Toronto).  And, for a team with a power play north of 22 percent (22.9 to be exact), they don’t have many power play goals.  Only 12 teams have fewer man advantage goals than the Caps (8).  No team in the league has as high a percentage of conversion and so few goals to show for it.

2.  More on special teams.  The first period differential in special teams ice time (10:21 on the power play and 31:24 killing penalties for a differential of -21:03) is not only the worst in the league, it is more than twice as bad as the 29^th place team – Toronto (10:20).  Maybe it is a product of power play efficiency, of dispatching power plays with a goal early in the man advantage, or maybe it is a product of an efficient penalty kill, milking it for the full two minutes at a time.  Still, that is a substantial difference from the rest of the league.

3.  The Caps are second in the league in third period goals scored (17).  They are tied with Montreal and Columbus for the most non-empty net goals scored in the third period (15).

4.  Thinking of beating Braden Holtby at home?  Bring a lunch and a tool box; it will be long hard work.  Holtby has allowed a single goal on Verizon Center ice in four of his last five games, two goals in the other, and he has an overall record of 5-2-0, 1.74, .934 at home this season.

5.  The Caps have five players with Corsi-for percentages at 5-on-5 at 60.0 percent or better for the season: Nicklas Backstrom (61.8), Brooks Laich (61.2), Nate Schmidt (61.0), Justin Williams (60.8), and Dmitry Orlov (60.0; numbers from war-on-ice.com)).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Toronto: Morgan Rielly

In his first two seasons in the NHL, Morgan Rielly was consistent in his points per game from the blue line.  In his rookie season he averaged 0.37 points per game, and last year he averaged 0.36 points per game.  This season he is off to a fast start with eight points in 12 games (0.67 points per game), although that is fueled by a three-point game (1-2-3) against Dallas last Monday.  As it is, Rielly is 3-3-6 in his last six games.  However, Toronto being Toronto, those points also come with a minus-1 mark over those games overall.  With an overall scoring line of 3-5-8, minus-3, he has the misfortune of being one of two defensemen in the league with at least eight points and a minus-3 or worse (Minnesota’s Ryan Suter – 2-9-11, minus-3 – is the other).  Rielly is 1-1-2, even, in six career games against the Caps.

Washington: Justin Williams

Justin Williams is the picture of quiet efficiency these days.  He has points in his last four games (1-3-4), becoming the fourth Capital to reach double digits in points with his assist in the 4-1 win over the Boston Bruins on Thursday.  He is 2-6-8 over his last eight games.  Only three times in 12 games this season has he been on the minus-side of the plus-minus ledger.  Not coincidentally, those were in the Caps’ three losses this season.  His Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 is a superb 60.5 (although he ranks just fourth on the club).  And, his presence seems to rub off on others.  Wilson has skated more than 15 5-on-5 minutes with ten teammates so far this season.  In every single instance, the teammate has an equal or better Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 with Williams than apart from him (numbers from stats.hockeyanalysis.com).  He is 8-10-18, plus-8, in 32 career games against Toronto.

In the end…

Mike Babcock is a fine coach, and he might turn the Maple Leafs into a fine team.  But at the moment, “fine team” would not be an apt description of the Maple Leafs.  Going into Friday’s game against Detroit, they lost seven of eight games, and four of their last five losses were by multi-goal margins.  They have yet to defeat a team on the road this season that has won a game (they beat the Blue Jackets in Columbus when the Jackets were 0-4-0).

The only way the Caps can lose this game is if the Caps “lose” this game.  Toronto does not have the depth or the skill at either end of the ice, and they do not have enough goaltending to keep the Caps from settling this game early, competition-wise.  If there is a danger for the Caps here, it is in the time they spend early in games killing penalties.  Toronto was 3-for-8 on the power play in two games heading into their Friday game against the Red Wings.  For the Caps, they will get either a goalie coming off a game the previous night (Reimer) or perhaps one who has yet to appear in an NHL game.  Antoine Bibeau was called up from the Toronto Marlies because Jonathan Bernier was placed on injured reserve with a lower-body injury.  Bibeau was 5-1-0, 2.17, .908 with the AHL club.  It makes for a difficult situation for the Maple Leafs that the Caps would do well to take advantage of from the drop of the puck.  Pound on them early, and it will be a quick night.

Capitals 5 – Maple Leafs 2

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 4 - Bruins 1

The Washington Capitals spotted the Boston Bruins the first goal in last night’s contest at Verizon Center, but the Caps came back with four unanswered goals to resume their winning ways in a 4-1 win.

Boston broke a scoreless streak of 199:30 against the Caps in the first period on an unfortunate bounce.  Brett Connolly skated the puck down the left wing for the Bruins in the Capitals’ zone.  When he got to the bottom of the left wing circle, he threw the puck to the front of the net.  Matt Niskanen got his stick on the puck and deflected it upward, seemingly out of harm’s way, but the puck his Jimmy Hayes in the chest and rebounded behind goalie Braden Holtby to give the Bruins the early edge.

That would be it for any “edge” the Bruins enjoyed.  Alex Ovechkin tied the game less than five minutes later on his seventh goal of the year when he went to the top of the crease to establish positions, took a bump from Zdeno Chara, took a nudge from Kevan Miller, and as he tumbled to the ice managed to lift the stick of Chara away from a loose puck and then wrist the puck past goalie Tuukka Rask into the back of the net to tie the game.

Washington broke the tie early in the second period when Brooks Laich got his first of the season.  It was a nasty, greasy sort of goal.  It started with Michael Latta making a nice play to outfight Tyler Randell for the puck and slide it out to Dmitry Orlov at the right point.  Orlov fired the puck at the net, but as it sailed through it struck the inside of Laich’s right ankle as he was setting up a screen in front of Rask at the top of the crease.  The puck bounced down and past Rask’s glove to make it 2-1.

Barely three minutes late it was 3-1, courtesy of a usual goal scored in an unusual way.  On a Caps power play, John Carlson fed the puck down to Nicklas Backstrom at the goal line to the left of Rask.  As Backstrom surveyed the ice, Carlson circled all the way around the Bruins’ defense to the bottom of the left wing circle as Alex Ovechkin, who normally would occupy that spot, rotated up into Carlson’s spot.  Backstrom feathered a pass through the top of the crease to Carlson, who pounded it past Rask for a 3-1 lead.

Karl Alzner closed the scoring with his first goal of the season, an empty netter with 1:50 left from the center red line, and the Cap had a 4-1 win.

Other stuff…

-- The 199:30 shutout streak against the Bruins dating back to the last game against Boston in the 2013-2014 season belonged entirely to Braden Holtby.  His career record against the Bruins went to 8-2-0, 1.52, .954, with three shutouts.  In his last four appearances against Boston he is 4-0-0, 0.25, .991, with three shutouts.

-- Alex Ovechkin’s goal leaves him one behind Sergei Fedorov as the most prolific goal scorer from Russian in NHL history.  His 482 career goals ranks fourth overall among active players, five behind Chicago’s Marian Hossa.

-- Brooks Laich’s goal was the first he scored at home in the regular season since recording one against the Buffalo Sabres at Verizon Center last March 7^th.

-- Karl Alzner’s goal broke a 19-game streak without one dating back to last season, his last one coming on March 26^th against the New Jersey Devils.

-- For Laich and Michael Latta, who had an assist, their points were their first of the year, respectively.  They became the 18^th and 19^th players for the Caps to record a point this season.  The only skaters who remain without one who have played for Washington this season are Sean Collins, Taylor Chorney, and Chandler Stephenson.

-- With a goal and an assist, John Carlson recorded his fourth multi-point game of the season.  He leads all NHL defensemen in multi-point games thus far.

-- Evgeny Kuznetsov broke an odd streak with his assist on the Ovechkin goal.  It was his first assist in five games after he had eight helpers in his first seven contests.

-- The Caps were taken to school in the faceoff circle, but not by the usual suspect.  Patrice Bergeron was a mere 14-for-27 in the dot, but the David Krejci and Joonas Kemppainen were a combined 19-for-25 against the Caps.  Jay Beagle, one of the best faceoff practitioners in the league, was victimized six times in eight tries against that pair.

-- Marcus Johansson had an eerily quiet game.  In 16 minutes an change, the only marks on his score sheet were a missed shot attempt and one faceoff (a win).

-- On the other hand, Matt Niskanen gets a seat at the buffet – two shots on goal, three blocked, two misses, a hit, two giveaways, a takeaway, two blocked shots, and a plus-1 in 19:09.

In the end…

At the moment, the Caps own this series against the Bruins.  Or at least Braden Holtby does.  He has beaten them eight straight times after dropping his first two career decisions to them.  Then there was the 2012 playoffs in which he had a goals against average of 1.95 and a save percentage of .935 in beating them in seven games.  His performance on Thursday night was part of an overall fine performance by the Caps coming off a loss on Tuesday night.  They have been very good at keeping one loss from becoming two in a row. 

They get a bit of a break in the schedule with their next game at home against a Toronto Maple Leaf team that has only one road win before setting off on the road to Detroit, where the Red Wings are just a .500 home team, and Philadelphia, struggling to keep up in the Metropolitan Division. The Caps have done a good job of taking care of business in their first dozen games to date, so while there is always a danger in not taking such teams seriously, the Caps have not shown signs of doing any such thing.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 12: Bruins at Capitals, November 5th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals look to rebound from Tuesday’s 5-2 smacking at the hands of the New York Rangers when they return home to host the Boston Bruins on Thursday night.  The Caps will be looking to extend an interesting streak.  They have gone 24 straight regular season games without losing in consecutive contests, posting a record of 17-6-1 over that span.

On the other hand, the Bruins are certainly hot in the here and now.  After dropping their first three games to open the 2015-2016 season (and being outscored 16-7 in the process), Boston is 6-1-1 in their last eight games, outscoring opponents by a 35-20 margin.  And have they spread the scoring around.  The Bruins have goals from 16 skaters and points from 19 skaters in the 6-1-1 run.

The leading goal scorers over this eight-game stretch are David Krejci and Brad Marchand with five apiece.  Marchand is on quite a tear to open the season.  His five goals in nine games is not unheard of (he had six in nine games to open the abbreviated 2012-2013 season), but only once has he recorded more than two goals in his first nine games of the season in his six-year career entering this season.  Part of his success is shot volumes that are almost Ovechkinian in their dimension.  Averaging just 2.04 shots per game over his career entering this season, Marchand has 33 shots on goal in nine games (3.67/game).  Only once in nine games has he been held under three shots on goal.  And, as if you think he might have sanded the rough edges of his reputation as a pot-stirrer, he is one of only two players in the league with at least five goals and at least 20 penalty minutes (Montreal’s Torrey Mitchell is the other).  In 19 career games against Washington, Marchand is 5-4-9, minus-3.

Krejci opened his season with a nine-game points streak, extending his points streak to 11 straight regular season games dating back to last season.  He already has four multi-point games this season, tied for the eighth-most in the league so far this season (through Tuesday’s games).  He has been a very productive power play performer, tied for the league lead in power play points (seven, with three other players, including teammate Patrice Bergeron).  Compare that to last season when Krejci had only eight power play points in 47 games played.  In 27 career games against the Caps, he is 5-13-17, minus-3.

If the Bruins have a problem, it is an unexpected one.  Tuukka Rask has spent the past six seasons establishing himself as one of the best puck-stoppers in the game.  Since assuming a regular spot in the Bruins’ goaltending rotation in 2009-2010, Rask was 133-80-34, 2.16, .926, with 25 shutouts in 261 appearances.  This season, things are a bit different, at least so far.  Rask has appeared in eight games to date, but he has a record of 3-4-1, 3.51, .876.  He has allowed five or more goals in four of his appearances.  He ranks 35^th in goals against average out of 39 goalies appearing in five or more games.  His save percentage is 37^th in that group.  His remedy?  “I have to make more saves.”  That seems clear.

Here is how the two clubs compare in their numbers to date:

1.  The Bruins have had substantial contributions from the defense in their recent good fortune.  Over their last eight games, the Bruins defense is 4-20-24.  For the season, through 11 games, the Caps’ defense is 5-20-25.

2.  Boston has the fourth-worst team save percentage in the league (.893).  The three teams beneath them in the rankings – Edmonton, Columbus, and Calgary – have a combined win-loss record of 11-27-1.

3.  It might be worse for the Bruins but for the fact that they are allowing the fourth fewest shots on goal per game (27.1). The three teams ahead of them in the rankings – St. Louis, Carolina, and the Caps – have a combined record of 21-13-1.  It seems it is easier to save a shot you do not have to face.

4.  Only one team has more players in double digit point totals than the five the Bruins have (Krejci, Loui Eriksson, Patrice Bergeron, Torey Krug, and Jimmy Hayes).  The Montreal Canadiens have a mind-boggling eight players with double digit point totals.

5.  Boston has a middle-of-the-road possession ranking – 12^th in corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (50.9 percent).  They do struggle late in games, though.  Their 48.0 Corsi-for percentage in the third periods of games ranks 22^nd (numbers from war-on-ice.com).

1.  The Caps lost Game 11 of the season to the New York Rangers on Tuesday night.  Yes, it’s the Rangers.  Yes, it is a team that has given the Caps fits over the past few years.  But, here’s the thing.  It’s Game 11.  In 41 seasons, including this one, the Caps have a franchise record of 13-20-5 in Game 11 of the season.  And if you think it is better lately, now that the Caps are a competitive team, think again.  Since the 2007-2008 season, when the Caps reached the postseason for the first time since the 2004-2005 lockout, the Caps are 4-4-1 in Game 11 of the season. 

2.  Washington is averaging just 6:43 in penalty time per game.  Only Minnesota (6:27) and Carolina (5:30) average less.

3.  The Caps are averaging only 2.82 power plays per game.  Only three teams average fewer – Calgary (2.77), the New York Rangers (2.42), and the New York Islanders (2.23).

4.  The lack of power play opportunities put the Caps in the bottom half of special teams opportunity differential.  At minus-0.27 (power plays per game less penalty kills per game), the Caps rank 19^th overall.

5.  The Caps are the only team in the league that ranks in the top-five in Corsi-for percentage overall in each of the three periods of games: fifth in the first period (53.4), third in the second period (58.2), and fifth in the third period (54.3; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Boston: Jimmy Hayes

The journey of Boston native Jimmy Hayes to the Bruins was a circuitous one.  He was drafted in the second round of the 2008 entry draft by the Toronto Maple Leafs, but never suited up for the Leafs.  He was traded by Toronto to the Chicago Blackhawks for a second round draft pick in 2010, then was traded to the Florida Panthers as part of a multi-player deal in 2013.  Finally, the Panthers traded Hayes to Boston for Reilly Smith and Marc Savard last July.  In his first season with the hometown Bruins, Hayes is one of five players with at least ten points so far (3-7-10 in 11 games).  He has points in four of his last five games going into Thursday’s game against the Caps, including a three-point night against the Arizona Coyotes on October 27^th.  In five career games, Hayes has yet to record a point against the Capitals.

Washington: John Carlson

After John Carlson posted a three-assist game against the Edmonton Oilers on October 23^rd, it looked as if John Carlson had taken his place among the top offensive defensemen in the NHL.  Through seven games he was 2-8-11, plus-3.  Unfortunately, Carlson has not recorded a point since, going without one over his last four games and finishing a minus-3 in his last game, a 5-2 loss to the New York Rangers.  His production on the power play – or lack of it – coincides with that of the Caps.  He does not have a power play point in his last four games, and the Caps have been blanked on the man-advantage over those same four games, going 0-for-9.  He does have a power play goal and a pair of assists on the man-advantage in 18 career games against Boston, posting an overall scoring line of 3-5-8, plus-3.

In the end…

The Caps are catching teams at the top of their performance cycle at the moment.  Columbus won two in a row before their game with the Caps last Saturday after losing their first eight games.  The New York Rangers went into their game against the Caps with a 4-1-0 record in their previous five games.  The Bruins will go into their contest against the Caps winners in six of their last eight games.  However, you can tell when a team might be coming to the end of their performance cycle.  After scoring 26 goals in five games (a 4-0-1 record), the Bruins scored a total of six goals in two wins before losing to the Dallas Stars, 5-3, in their last outing.

On the other hand, the Caps do have that string of games without sustaining consecutive losses.  They have shown an ability to manage the schedule fairly well.  They will be facing a team that has had surprisingly uneven performances in goal, depending largely on a deep and balanced offensive led by the league's best power play to put wins together.  The Caps will be looking to shore up what was a leaky defense in their loss to the Rangers on Tuesday and take advantage of the league's worst penalty kill.  That will be incentive enough to carry the Caps into the weekend on a high note.

Capitals 4 – Bruins 2

Washington Capitals Recap: A NO-Point Night: Rangers 5 - Capitals 2

The Washington Capitals laid an egg in their second game of the season when they were shutout by the San Jose Sharks, 5-0, at home.  Since then they were diligent in rising to the top of the Metropolitan Division.  Until Tuesday night.  The Caps played an iffy first period, were just poor enough in the second period, and didn’t have enough in the third period to catch the New York Rangers, who defeated the Caps, 5-2, to take over the top spot in the Metropolitan Division.

The Rangers started the scoring just before the eight-minute mark of the first period when the Caps got loose with the puck in their own end.  Brooks Orpik chased down a loose puck along the end wall in his own end, but his attempted pass to John Carlson was intercepted by Kevin Hayes behind the Caps’ net.  He threw the puck in front, but Evgeny Kuznetsov got a stick on the pass.  It was not enough.  Dan Girardi sent a shot on net that Braden Holtby stopped.  Hayes took a swipe at the puck from top of the crease but missed.  Oscar Lindberg did not, though, darting in on the weak side and poking the puck past Holtby for the 1-0 lead.

The Caps tied it late in the period off what might have been a disaster.  Girardi snapped a shot from the slot that hit the post to Holtby’s right and kicked out to the side boards where Alex Ovechkin pick up the puck.  He skated it out to the neutral zone and slid it over to Nate Schmidt approaching the Ranger blue line.  Schmidt skated in with Marc Staal trying to cut off his path to the net.  Staal laid out trying to deny a passing lane, but Schmidt found enough room to get the puck to Ovechkin for a one-timer past goalie Henrik Lundqvist.

Getting out of the first period tied would have been a plus for the Caps, but they didn’t, allowing a Kevin Hayes goal two minutes after the Ovechkin strike, the product of lackadaisical coverage by the Caps that allowed a two-on-one to form slowly and give Hayes the chance to snap the puck past Holtby’s left shoulder to make it 2-1 at the first intermission.

The Rangers scored twice in the second period on their only two shots on goal – one from Kevin Klein less than two minutes into the period on a four-on-two jail break after a Caps power play expired.  The other came in the seventh minute when Mats Zuccarello picked Marcus Johansson’s pocket, fed Derick Brassard,and Brassard finished the play from between the hashmarks.

That more or less ended the competitive portion of the evening.  The teams exchanged goals, the Caps scoring on a Johansson re-direct of a Karl Alzner drive with less than two minutes to go in the second period, the Rangers restoring the three-goal lead mid-way through the third period on Jarret Stoll’s first goal as a Ranger.  That would be the end of the scoring in a 5-2 Ranger win. 

Other stuff…

-- The Rangers were an extremely efficient team, especially in the second period.  So much so that they scored a goal without recording a shot on goal…

-- Washington was the 29^th team in the NHL to lose a game on the road this season, now with a record of 4-1-0 away from Verizon Center.  Only the Boston Bruins remain as a team yet to lose on the road (5-0-0). 

-- It was a difficult night for the Brooks Orpik-John Carlson defensive pair.  They were on the ice for three goals, and Orpik was on for a fourth – the Stoll goal at the end – paired with Matt Niskanen.

-- That was the 15^th time in his career that Braden Holtby surrendered five or more goals in a game.  The 21 shots he faced was not the fewest number of shots he faced in doing so.  There was the five goals on 11 shots he saw against the Minnesota Wild on January 4, 2014 that stands at the top (or bottom, depending on your point of view).

-- In addition to his goal, “eight” was the number dominating Alex Ovechkin’s score sheet – eight shots on goal, eight hits.

-- The Caps were 0-for-2 on the power play, making them 0-for-9 on the man advantage over their last four games.  The Caps just are not generating chances.  It was the sixth time in their last nine games they were held to two power play opportunities.

-- Alex Ovechkin still does not have a power play goal this season.  Part of the problem is shots.  With one shot on goal against the Rangers, he has 14 shots on goal in ten games (1.40/game).  Last season he had 134 shots on goal in 81 games (1.65/game).

-- Let’s go through some numbers… Caps won the faceoff duel, 31-21.  Caps had 67 shot attempts to 37 for the Rangers.  At 5-on-5 the Caps had 62 shot attempts to the Rangers’ 33.  They had 20 offensive zone starts at 5-on-5 to the Rangers’ 11.  You would think the Caps won this game, 5-2.

-- So why didn’t they?  Breakdowns.  You could point to one in every goal scored by the Rangers.  First goal?  Poor execution of a pass behind the Caps’ net and sloppy coverage in front of it that allowed only Rangers to get sticks on the puck.  Second goal? Slow coverage getting back into their own end that allowed a two-on-one in deep that never should have happened.  Third goal?  Turnover at the Rangers’ blue line when Alex Ovechkin could not corral a pass from Justin Williams (it is worth noting, it was at the end of a 1:53 shift to open the second period since the Caps were on a power play to start the frame).  Fourth goal?  Giveaway in their own end.  Fifth goal?  Allowing the Rangers to enter the offensive zone on a 3-on-2 after a power play expired for the Rangers (although that goal is on Holtby).

-- Andre Burakovsky looks a bit lost in the offensive end.  He has yet to record more than two shots in any game this season.  He did have two in this game, but that minus-3 sticks out a lot more.

In the end…

Splat!  That was the high-flying 8-2-0, Metropolitan Division-leading Capitals falling back to earth.  It seems when it comes time for the Caps to make a statement against this team, especially in this arena, they come up short.  The stakes were not as high in this game as they were in Game 5 in last spring’s playoffs, when the Caps had a chance to close out the Rangers in this rink, but the Caps were in a position to stake a claim to being the class of the division in this contest.  They didn’t, and how they lost was unsettling.  They dominated the numbers, but they had moments when they were awful, and the Rangers dutifully accepted the gifts.  The recent history of this club is characterized by the Rangers’ opportunistic style of play, their capacity to convert those moments of indecision or poor play by the Caps into goals.  And they have a world-class goaltender to make it stand up.  It was the formula for a Rangers win in this game.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 11: Capitals at Rangers, November 3rd

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals return to the ice on Tuesday night, visiting an old and familiar enemy.  The Caps invade Madison Square Garden to take on the New York Rangers, a team that has ended the Caps’ playoff journey in each of the last three times the Caps reached the postseason.  It has not exactly been a cake walk for the Caps in the regular season, either.  Washington has lost four of their last five regular season contests to the Rangers and have a 6-11-1 record in their last 18 regular season meetings with the Blueshirts.

The Caps and Rangers will head into their contest in a standings points tie for the top spot in the Metropolitan Division, the Caps holding the edge by virtue of holding a game in hand and one more win.  Both clubs will bring two-game winning streaks into the contest.

The Rangers have had a bit longer string of good play, going 4-0-1 in their last five games after starting the season alternating three-game winning and losing streaks. The streak featured one of the stranger games in terms of scoring that you will find.  In the Rangers’ last outing, a 3-1 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs, all three goals featured the same players in the same scoring roles.  Mat Zuccarello recorded a hat trick, Derick Brassard had all three primary assists, and Rick Nash had all three secondary assists.

Overall, the Rangers on this recent 4-0-1 run are led in overall scoring by Zuccarello (4-2-6) and Brassard (2-4-6), who also happen to be the team leaders overall in points.  Zuccarello, an undrafted free agent, has been on the brink of being a reliable goal scoring contributor for the past two seasons, posting 34 goals in 155 games overall.  This season he is off to a fast start in that regard with seven goals in 11 games.  He is doing it with an efficient that seems unlikely to stand up over time, shooting at 28 percent (7-for-25).  That is the effect of a hat trick in a small population of games.  In 10 career games against the Caps he has yet to record a goal, going 0-4-4, plus-4.

Brassard comes into this contest on a three-game points streak and points in four of five games.  Once a sixth-verall draft pick of the Columbus Blue Jackets, Brassard has yet to reach the level of performance one might have expected from such a high draft pick.  In nine seasons entering this one, Brassard has come close to the 20-goal mark for a season, but has not quite reached it.  He set a career best of 19 goals last season.  What he has been is more productive in the post season, recording 17 goals in only 54 career playoff games.  He is 2-6-8, plus-3, in 14 career games against Washington.

The Rangers have points from six of the seven defensemen to dress for the club so far this season, led by the six points posted by Keith Yandle.  Yandle has always been a top-notch offensive defenseman.  Since he became a full-time player in the NHL in 2008-2009, only Duncan Keith (333) and Shea Weber (328) have recorded more points among defensemen than Yandle (314, tied with Erik Karlsson).  He is one of only two defensemen – Karlsson and P.K. Subban being the others – to record at least 50 points in each of the last two seasons.  In 11 career games against the Caps, Yandle is 0-7-7, plus-1.

Henrik Lundqvist just keeps on going in goal for the Rangers.  In the early going this season he is in the top ten among goalies in wins (5/tied for 10^th), goals against average (1.87/4^th among goalies appearing in five or more games), save percentage (.944/1^st), and total minutes played (546/ninth).  Only once in nine appearances this season has he allowed more than two goals, and only twice has he finished a game with a save percentage lower than .935.  If there is a weakness, it is in that he ranks 12^th among goaltenders appearing in at least five games in save percentage in shorthanded situations (.895).  In 29 career regular season games against Washington, Lundqvist is 18-8-3, 2.52, .910, with four shutouts.

Here is how the teams compare in their numbers:

1.  The Rangers are a top-ten offense (going into Monday’s games), but they are a bit unbalanced.  Of their 31 goals, 12 of them come from Mats Zuccarello (7) and Oscar Lindberg (5).  No other Ranger has more than three, and Rick Nash, who led the club with 42 goals last season, has only one in 11 games so far.

2.  If you look at the Rangers’ scoring as a glass half full, they start and end games well.  With 12 goals in the first periods of games, they rank fourth; their 13 third period goals is tied for sixth.

3.  In the glass half-empty version of this, the Rangers do not handle the long change well.  Only the Columbus Blue Jackets and Anaheim Ducks (three goals each) have fewer second period goals than the Rangers (six).

4.  Allowing goals by period has not been a problem.  The Rangers and the Pittsburgh Penguins are the only teams in the league to have allowed eight or fewer goals in each of the three periods to date.

5.  The Rangers have an uneven record with possession so far.  They rank 24^th overall in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (48.0).  However, in close score situations they rank 12^th (50.8; numbers from war-on-ice.com).  They dominate scoring in close score situations, outscoring opponents at 5-on-5, 15-8.

1.  T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams have not been resting on their contracts or past performance.  Both have eight points in 10 games.  Oshie is tied for third in goals overall (4) second on the team with four power play points.  Williams is fourth in assists (6) and third in plus-minus (plus-5).

2.  John Carlson leads the club in power play points (5).  Then there is Oshie, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov…. You will find Alex Ovechkin tied for fifth on the club with one power play point in nine games, and that one is an assist.

3.  Oshie is showing up at the other end, too.  His three blocked shots on the penalty kill leads Caps forwards, as does his nine blocked shots overall.

4.  Brooks Laich has gon 15 consecutive regular season games without a point, his longest streak since opening the 2006-2007 with a 16-game streak without a point.

5.  The Caps are fourth in the league in Corsi-for percentage at 5-on-5 (54.2) and fourth in close score situations (55.4; numbers from war-on-ice.com). 

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

New York: Chris Kreider

Chris Kreider seems to be the Ranger every Caps fan loves to hate.  Maybe it is a penchant for crowding goalies...

Or maybe it’s scoring big goals against the Caps (he had four in last spring’s seven game series).  Whatever, he is a player to whom Caps fans pay attention in this rivalry.  He comes into this game empty of points in two straight after putting together a three-game points streak.  What he is off to this season, though, is a slow start, goal-scoring wise.  Where he finished last season with a career-high 21 goals in 80 games, Kreider has only one goal in 11 games this season.  He does seem to be a bit more mindful of where he is on the ice though; he has only four penalty minutes this season after finishing last season with 88 penalty minutes in 80 games.  In eight regular season games against the Caps in his career, Kreider has one point – an assist. – and is plus-1.

Washington: Tom Wilson

It is early, but through ten games Tom Wilson is averaging about as many shots per game (1.20) as he did last season in 67 games (1.18).  On one level this is a bit troubling, since he is averaging almost three minutes more in ice time per game (13:39 versus 10:56 last season).  On the other hand, he is expanding his role.  Last season he finished the year with a total of 46 seconds of shorthanded ice time.  Thus far this season he is averaging 1:00 per game, seventh among forwards.  What he is getting as welol is more even strength ice time.  His 12:38 a game is almost equal to that for Justin Williams, for example (12:48).  With 159 games of regular season experience on his resume, it would be a good thing if the offensive production numbers started catching up with other parts of his game.  Wilson does not have a point in six career regular season games against the Rangers.

In the end…

In the 1980’s, the defining rivalry with the Caps was that against the New York Islanders.  In the 1990’s into the early 2000’s, it was the Pittsburgh Penguins.  Now, a case can be made that it is the Rangers that are the Capitals’ archrival.  All three rivalries were the product of postseason confrontations more than regular season battles, but from one carries over the other.  The Rangers have had their way with the Caps in recent years, in games that really mattered and a few that did not.  The common element in those frustrations has been the play of goalie Henrik Lundqvist.  All paths to victory in this game go through the veteran netminder…literally.

Capitals 3 – Rangers 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 3

Three weeks in, three winning weeks.  Week 3 started poorly against an archrival, but it ended with two games of the sort that condition a club to dealing with tough circumstances, when goals do not flow off their sticks like honey.  It made for what would be a sweet week, though.

Record: 2-1-0

Beating the Pittsburgh Penguins, even at home, had become an infrequent experience in recent years.  Going into Wednesday night’s game against the Pens, the Caps were 3-8-1 in their last dozen meetings, 1-4-0 at home.  The Caps broke open a scoreless tie early in the third period, but gave the lead back less than a minute later before dropping a 3-1 decision.  The Caps were better about holding leads in their other two games of the week.  They held on after taking a 2-0 lead against the Columbus Blue Jackets to win , 2-1, then they just waited until the very last second to take a lead, beating the Florida Panthers, 2-1, in overtime.

Offense: 1.67/game (season: 3.40 /game; rank: 4th)

Goals were hard to come by in Week 3.  It was not completely unusual to finish a week with five goals in three games; the last time the Caps scored 5-in-3 was in Games 68-70 last season (they lost to the New York Rangers and Dallas Stars, beat the Boston Bruins).  However, it was an unexpected result, given that the Caps finished Week 2 with the top scoring offense in the league.  The Caps got only one goal – one point, in fact – from a forward not in their top-six, although that goal by Jay Beagle was scored playing with Alex Ovechkin and Justin Williams.  So, you could say the bottom six was shut out for the week.  There were no goals from defensemen; the three points for the week being assists – two from Karl Alzner, one from Dmitry Orlov.

Defense: 1.67/game (season: 2.30/game; rank: 10th)

As much as the offense struggled for the week, the defense had a pretty good effort.  At the top end, they allowed only 82 shots (including one empty-netter), 27.3 shots per game.  It was actually a bit higher average than the Caps’ average through two weeks.  Nevertheless, Washington finished Week 3 having allowed the fewest shots on goal per game in the league (25.1).

It was every bit as good in the possession numbers.  The Caps dominated at 5-on-5, finishing all three games over 55 percent Corsi-for and going 57.3 percent for the week.  Their Fenwick numbers were almost as good, topping 50 percent  in each of the three games and going 55.2 percent for the week.  It was a similar story in close score situations, 56.0 Corsi-for and 54.2 percent Fenwick-for in close score situations at 5-on-5 (all numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Goaltending: 1.32 / .951 (season: 2.01 / .919)

Week 2 was not a very good week for the netminders.  Week 3 was another matter.  Braden Holtby and Philipp Grubauer combined to allow only four goals on 81 shots for the week.  It might have been a better week if the save percentages had not been eroded as games went on.  The first period save percentage was 1.000 for the week (34-for-34).  The second period was not much worse (.950 on 19-for-20), but the third period save percentage of .885 (23-for-26) contributed to the lone loss for the week and some anxious moments against Columbus.  One thing that Caps goaltenders are benefitting from is low shot volumes.  At the end of Week 3, among 33 goalies playing at least 200 5-on-5 minutes, Braden Holtby faced the fewest shots per 60 minutes (23.04, to St. Louis’ Brian Elliott with 20.41; numbers from war-on-ice.com).

Power Play: 0-for-7 / 0.0 percent (season: 24.1 percent; rank: 5th)

Week 3 was an unusual week.  It was the first time that the Caps were blanked on more than five power play chances for a week since Week 16 of the 2013-2014 season.  It was a streak of 39 weeks without going without a power play goal on more than five chances.  It was not so much the efficiency that affected the result.  The Caps recorded 12 shots on the man advantage in 13:59 of power play time (0.86 shots per minute).  Not great, but not all that bad, either.  It was not even so much the “who” got those shots.  Alex Ovechkin had four power play shots for the week; T.J. Oshie had three.  One might point to Ovechkin missing the net on four power play shots against Columbus, but in the end, perhaps it was just one of those weeks.

Penalty Killing: 9-for-9 / 100.0 percent (season: 87.9 percent; rank: 6th)

You would think a 9-for-9 week would be cause for celebration, and at the most important level – no goals – it is.  It was the first time since Week 20 last season that the Caps shut out opponents on five or more power plays.  There were, however, a lot of shots – 17 of them in 16:13 of shorthanded ice time (1.05 per minute).  A lot of that was the performance against the Florida Panthers to close the week.  Perhaps it was a product of playing on back-to-back nights, but eight shots against in 5:58 of shorthanded ice time.  It made Philipp Grubauer the best penalty killer of the night for the Caps.  But these things are team efforts, and at the end of Week 3, having the league’s sixth-ranked penalty kill cannot be considered a bad thing.

Even Strength 5-on-5 Goals for/Goals Against: 3-4 / minus-1 (season, 5-on-5 goals for/goals against ratio: 1.53; rank: 5th)

It was a very quiet week, for and against, at five-on-five.  If there was a concern, it was the Caps inability to score early at full strength.  They did not score a five-on-five goal in the first half of any game for the week.  It would be nice if that was balanced by dominating five-on-five play late, but that was not the case, either.  It was a woeful week shooting the puck at fives.  The Caps were 3-for-73 over the three games (4.1 percent).  Consider it the pendulum swinging back in the other direction after a couple of weeks of very good five-on-five play; the Caps finished the week still ranked fifth in their goals-for/goals-against ratio.

Faceoffs: 87-for-176 /49.4 percent (season: 49.3% / rank: 18th)

The Caps finished the week one draw under 50 percent, but it masked the differences at the ends of the rink.  As one might expect with such a low-scoring week, the Caps struggled a bit in the offensive zone and did better in the defensive end.  That was certainly true, Washington managing only 45.0 percent wins in the offensive end for the week.  Jay Beagle going 9-for-16 could not offset Nicklas Backsttrom going 6-for-16 and Evgeny Kuznetsov going 7-for-15 in the offensive zone.  In the defensive end, the Caps were 55.9 percent, Backstrom (60.9 percent) and Kuznetsov (70.0 percent) having good weeks to offset Beagle’s struggles (46.7 percent).

Goals by Period:

It was a case of battling close early, giving little in the middle, and holding on at the end as far as the goals by period are concerned.  The Caps failed to score in any first period in Week 3, but they held opponents off the score sheet, too.  It was even again in the second period, the Caps scoring a goal against Columbus in the middle game of the week, allowing one to Florida in the last game of the week.  As it is, the Caps finished the week having scored more third period goals for the season (16) than every other team in the league except Montreal (17), and they had a positive goal differential in all three periods.  Their plus-6 goal differential in the third period is better than all but the New York Islanders and St. Louis Blues (both plus-7).

In the end…

The Caps closed Week 3 with an 8-2-0 record, matching their best ten-game start in franchise history, set in 1991-1992 and tied in 2011-2012.  They finished the week on top of the Metropolitan Division, holding a game in hand on each of the four teams behind them in the standings.  They finished the week in second place in the Eastern Conference, four points behind the Montreal Canadiens, but holding two games in hand on the Habs.  They are currently fourth in the league standings, holding at least a game in hand on each of the three teams in front of them – Montreal, Dallas Stars, St. Louis Blues.  You don’t have to put a blanket over the top seven teams in the league standings at the moment; you might be able to fit them on a postage stamp.  Four points separate those seven teams, and the Caps are firmly in that group (the Caps and Nashville Predators have played the fewest games in that group: 10).

It will not get easier in Week 4, though.  The Caps start the week visiting the New York Rangers, currently a tie-breaker behind the Caps for the Metro Division lead.  Then they host the Boston Bruins, a club that has been surprisingly good thus far (6-3-1), leading the league in scoring offense (3.90 goals/game).  They might catch a break finishing the week against the Toronto Maple Leafs (1-7-2), but that might be a team past being fed up with the level of their play.  That’s why they play the games.

Three Stars:

1. First Star: Evgeny Kuznetsov (2-0-2, plus-1, game-winning goal, 52.3 percent faceoffs)
2. Second Star: Philipp Grubauer (1-0-0, 0.94, .963)
3. Third Star: Alex Ovechkin (0-3-3, plus-1, 9 shots on goal, 21:28.game ice time)

Washington Capitals Recap: A TWO-Point Night: Capitals 2 - Panthers 1

When the Washington Capitals were winning six times in seven games to open the 2015-2016 season, they did it with overwhelming firepower, posting five wins by multi-goal margins.  So, we know they can pound teams with offense.  This weekend we found that they can grind games out, too.  The Caps posted their second consecutive 2-1 decision, downing the Florida Panthers by that margin on Saturday night.

Evgeny Kuznetsov scored the game-winner3:44 into the extra session when he took a pass from Dmitry Orlov at the far edge of the right wing circle, circled out through the middle of the ice, faked a pass to Alex Ovechkin crossing behind him, curled in and fired a low shot between the pads of goalie Al Montoya.

It was a sudden end to what had been a rather dull affair, long stretches of inconsequential action interrupted by odd goals. The Panthers got the first of them in the third minute of the second period as a Caps power play was ending.  Alex Ovechkin fired a slap shot off the foot of Panther defenseman Alex Petrovic, the puck rebounding to the stick of Dave Bolland just inside the Panther blue line.  He skated out with Jussi Jokinen on his right.  As Bolland reached the Caps line, he tried to feather a pass to Jokinen heading down the middle.  The bouncing puck eluded Jokinen’s first swipe at it, but he caught it flush on the second try and sent it over goalie Philipp Grubauer’s left shoulder for a 1-0 Panther lead.  Petrovic, who was still lying in a heap in his own end when Jokinen scored, got an assist.  Probably the most painful assist he will have in his career.

That goal stood up for almost 20 minutes.  In the third minute of the third period, Justin Williams won a battle for the puck along the right wing wall and walked it out into the right wing faceoff circle.  He sent a pass out to Ovechkin in the high slot, and Ovechkin did what he does – fired the puck.  The puck was deflected in front, and before Montoya could smother it, Jay Beagle jumped in to tap it off Montoya’s left skate and in to tie the contest. 

The play was reviewed by the on-ice officials after Florida coach Gerard Gallant, who felt that Williams interfered with Montoya as he was cruising across the top of the crease, exercised his coach's challenge.  The officials went to the tablet to review the play…and review the play…and review the play…and finally concluded that the goal was good.  That would be all the scoring until Kuznetsov ended things on a high note for the Caps in overtime, 2-1.

Other stuff…

-- The play leading to the Kuznetsov goal looked a lot like the “read option” play in football.  Think of it this way.  Kuznetsov took the “snap” from Dmitry Orlov and walked the puck down the line.  He faked a “handoff” to Ovechkin that froze the defense for an instant.  It created an opening on the “edge” of the line that Kuznetsov could exploit to break free and move in for the score.

-- For the second straight game, the Caps were involved in a coach’s challenge on a goal.  Both times, the goal was allowed, the Caps splitting the decisions for the weekend.  And we are no clearer tonight on what the criteria are for affirming or rejecting a challenge than we were before the weekend.

-- Kuznetsov was awarded the game’s first star.  Sure, he was the star of overtime, but of the game?  He had one shot attempt in the regulation portion of the game and was moved off the top line.  In 32:30 of regulation ice time for the weekend, he had one shot attempt, four hits, a giveaway, a takeaway, and won 14 of 26 draws.  It was not a great weekend, although we will take happy conclusions like the one on Saturday.

-- More often that it merits, people will look at a goalie stopping 26 of 27 shots in an overtime win and say, “if not for [insert name of goalie], the game would have been over long ago.”  It was true on Saturday night for the Caps, though.  Philipp Grubauer – who really should have been the first star of the game – kept the Caps from embarrassing themselves with the opportunities the Panthers were getting in deep against the defense.  He was a perfect 8-for-8 on Florida power play shots.

-- Speaking of power play, there will be an all-points bulletin issued for the Caps' version of it soon.  After going 0-for-2 against Florida, Washington is now 0-for-7 over their last three games and 2-for-16 over their last six games.  They have been held without a power play goal in 13 of their last 21 regular season games dating back to last year.

-- Alex Ovechkin recorded two shots on goal (none at even strength).  It is the first time he has been held to two shots or fewer in consecutive games since a four-game stretch early last season, October 18-26.  The Caps went 2-2-0 in those games.  Ovechkin went 81 games without consecutive games with two shots or fewer.  He did have eight shot attempts, making it 20 in two nights.  Of that total, nine of them were misses.

-- Of five Capitals taking more than one faceoff, Chandler Stephenson was the only one coming out on the losing side of the ledger.  He was 0-for-4.

-- Some arenas score hits differently than others.  In Florida, they appear to be generous.  The teams combined for 69 hits, and of the 35 recorded by the Caps, only Dmitry Orlov and Justin Williams were not credited with any.  Kuznetsov led the team with four.

-- A slow start plagued the Caps once more.  On Friday night, Washington did not record its first shot on goal until the 6:36 mark against Columbus.  Against Florida, the first shot on goal was recorded at the 6:54 mark.

-- For the fifth time in ten games, John Carlson recorded more than 25 minutes of ice time.  He skated a season high 28:19.

In the end…

It was by no means pretty, but not all wins are beauty pageants.  The glass-half-full version of this game is that the Caps won in spite of not playing very well for many stretches of the game.  Too often, the Caps coughed up the puck in dangerous places and allowed the Panthers chances. That Philipp Grubauer was a pool of calm (note: not "clam," as in a previous version) in goal – and aggressive when need be to challenge shooters – was encouraging after he allowed four goals on 23 shots in his first appearance of the season. 

Still, the Caps struggled against a team playing with its backup goaltender and without its leading scorer (Jaromir Jagr).  They get a couple of days off to work some things out before heading to New York to take on the Rangers on Tuesday in a game that could be for the Metropolitan Division lead.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 10: Capitals at Panthers, October 31

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals, fresh off their 2-1 win over the Columbus Blue Jackets, jet out of town for a Saturday night meeting in South Florida where the Florida Panthers will be waiting.  The Panthers will be coming off their own game the night before, having lost by a 3-1 margin to the Boston Bruins.  Florida will have the advantage of playing both sides of their back-to-back games at home.

Before heading into their weekend set of back-to-back games, the Panthers put together a fairly impressive trio of games against Western Conference opponents.  They dropped a 3-2 decision in Chicago to the Blackhawks, then the roared back (get it?) with a pair of wins – a 6-2 thumping of the Stars in Dallas and a 4-1 win over the Colorado Avalanche last Tuesday.

Over those three games in which the Panthers recorded a dozen goals, the points burden was borne primarily by Vincent Trocheck, who recorded two goals and three assists to have a hand in almost half the Panther goals.  Trocheck, now in his third – and first full – season with the Panthers after being drafted in the third round in 2011, was tied for second on the team in goals (4) and points (9) going into the weekend. He leads the team in power play points (2-3-5).  He has a goal in his only previous appearance against the Caps, and he should be considered dangerous.  His hometown is Pittsburgh.

Reilly Smith chipped in a goal in each of the Panthers’ wins heading into the weekend. Smith, another third round draft pick (by Dallas in 2009), is already on his third franchise (Boston between stops in Dallas and Florida), despite the fact that he will not turn 25 years of age until next April.  The right winger has one assist in six career games against Washington.

So, you are a goalie with a 2.01 goals against average and a .939 save percentage.  You also have a win-loss record of 3-3-1. You are Roberto Luongo, Florida Panther goaltender.  This is Luongo’s seventh season with the Panthers, split into two tours of duty.  In 399 career games with the club he has a .921 save percentage, but his goals against average is 2.61, and his record is 145-183-55.  He has faced an average of 33 shots per game as a Panther.  The phrase “lack of support” comes to mind.  He has yet to allow more than three goals in any game so far this season, but allowing three seems to be a problem.  He has losses in all three games when allowing three scores (one in overtime).  And for good measure, he also has a 1-0 loss on his ledger this season. He does give the Caps fits, though.  In 36 career games against Washington, he is 20-10-0, 2.29, .926, with two shutouts.  He is also a real hoot on Twitter.

Here is how the two teams compare in their numbers heading into Friday’s games:

1.  Florida is one of only four teams with a positive goal differential per game of 1.0 or more (3.10 goals for per game, 2.10 goals against per game).

2. The Panthers are a very efficient shooting team.  They rank seventh in team shooting percentage (10.9 percent), and there are five players currently shooting at 20.0 percent or better (Connor Brickley, Vincent Trocheck, Jaromir Jagr, Reilly Smith, and Quinton Howden).

3.  Getting off to good starts against the Panthers is difficult.  They are tied for third in fewest first period goals allowed (5).

4.  Conversely, Florida will make teams pay in the third periods of games.  They are tied for fourth in most goals scored in the third period of games (14).

5.  When they are good, they are very good.  Four of Florida’s five wins to date have been by three or more goals.

  

1.  Last season, the Caps were 9-17-6 in games in which they scored two or fewer goals.  With last night’s 2-1 win over Columbus, the Caps are 1-2-0 in such games this season.

2.  The power play, one of the presumed strengths of the team, is 2-for-14 (14.3 percent) over their last five games.

3.  Washington is the only team remaining in the league for which every penalty assessed so far has been a minor penalty.  They have been whistled for 33 infractions, all minor penalties.

4.  This year’s version of the Capitals is less “heavy” than last year’s, at least to the extent they are credited with hits.  They have been credited with the fourth fewest number of hits in the league (193).  Only San Jose, Minnesota, and Carolina have fewer.

5.  Philipp Grubauer is likely to get the start in goal tonight for Washington.  In his brief career to date, he is 4-5-2, 2.80, .915 in 12 road appearances.

The Peerless' Players to Ponder

Florida: Jaromir Jagr

In hockey terms, Jaromir Jagr is old.  How old?  He is probably a Hall of Famer based on his record in Pittsburgh alone: 806 games, 439 goals, 1,079 points.  But since then he has played in another 753 games in the NHL.  There are only 93 other active players in the league with that many career games played.  There are 244 players having dressed for games this season who were not born when Jagr took the ice for the first time in the NHL on October 5, 1990.  Oh, and about that October 5, 1990 debut.  It was against, who else, the Capitals.  Who else made their NHL debut in that game?  Peter Bondra.  He retired in 2007.  If Jagr appears in 74 games this season, he will rise to fourth all-time in games played after the age of 40 (Gordie Howe, Tim Horton, and Chris Chelios would still rank ahead of him).  Another full season, and there would be only Chelios ahead of him.

What is even more confounding is his production.  He leads the Panthers in goals (six, before Friday’s game), points (10), and shooting percentage.  If there is one concession to his age, it is that he averages only 15:16 in ice time per game.  And it is not a case of a big burst in one game; Jagr has points in six of the nine games in which he played going into Friday’s game with Boston.  He is still dangerous.  While Caps fans might think that he has been particularly hard on the Caps, that is more a product of his Pittsburgh years.  With 90 career points in 78 games (30-60-90), his career 1.15 points per game against Washington is just 16th among the 30 franchises in points per game.

Washington: Marcus Johansson

Marcus Johansson was born on October 6, 1990, the day after Jaromir Jagr made his debut in the NHL.  With all the attention paid to Alex Ovechkin’s five-game goal streak to start the season, Evgeny Kuznetsov’s hat trick/five-point game, the additions of T.J. Oshie and Justin Williams, and the emergence of John Carlson among the elite performers among NHL defensemen, it is easy to overlook a player line Johansson.

He is one of nine Caps at the moment who has recorded five or more points (2-3-5).  His plus-3 is third on the team (going into Friday’s game), and he is playing with his usual discipline with respect to the rule book (no penalty minutes).  Since he came into the league in 2010-2011, Johansson is one of four players who has appeared in more than 300 games, recorded more than 50 goals, and has been charged with fewer than 50 total penalty minutes (Loui Eriksson, Ryan O’Reilly, and Michael Grabner are the others).  He has been neither flashy nor extraordinarily prolific.  He has been solid, a fine complementary player on a team with a full complement of top-six forwards.  In 18 career games against Florida, Johansson is 3-8-11, plus-2.

In the end…

The Caps played a tough 60-minute game last night, now head on the road.  Even for elite athletes, this can be a difficult situation, especially against a team with a surprisingly effective offense such as Florida's (even if Jaromir Jagr is held out another game with a lower body injury).  Add in the fact that the Caps will be giving number one goalie Braden Holtby a breather, and this is a game that can be dangerous.  It will put a premium on playing smart, on playing efficiently.  The Caps have become just such a team from the early evidence this season. 

Capitals 3 - Panthers 2