The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 69: Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals, March 14th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals are in the midst of their first true crisis of the season and look to end the troubles when they return home to face the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday night.  Ten days ago, this game had the promise of featuring two teams at the top of their respective conferences and perhaps favorites to reach the Stanley Cup final.  When they take the ice on Tuesday, both teams will have found themselves coming back to the pack in the standings and just two among what are now many who could credibly be thought of as Stanley Cup final contenders.

The Caps have lost four in a row in regulation, the first time that has happened since Games 8-11 early in the 2014-2015 season, and they are 5-6-1 since coming back from their league-sanctioned in-season vacation.  Meanwhile, the Wild have lost three of four and are 4-4-0 in eight games since their own six-day break.  For both teams, their respective conference leads have fallen to one point, the Caps one point over Pittsburgh (pending Monday night’s results), and Minnesota is one point ahead of Chicago.

Minnesota’s offense in their 4-4-0 slide has been an all-or-nothing affair.  Three times in those eight games they scored five or more goals (all wins), and three times they scored one or no goals (all losses).  Overall, they have 25 goals in those eight games, and Eric Staal has five of them to lead the team.  For Staal, Minnesota seems to have rejuvenated his career.  After three seasons that saw his point production drop each season, the last of which was split between the Carolina Hurricanes where he played 12 seasons) and the New York Rangers, Staal is on a pace to finish with more goals (27) than he had in any season since 2010-2011 (33), more assists (37) than he had since 2013-2014 (40), and more points (64) than he had since any season since 2011-2012 (70). And when he scores a goal, the Wild win.  They are 16-1-0 in games in which he has a goal this season.  Staal also has the odd quality, perhaps more common among veterans, of being more productive on the road this season (11-17-28, plus-5, in 34 games) than he has been at home (11-13-24, plus-4, in 33 games).  Staal is 27-44-71, plus-5, in 72 career games against the Caps.

Mikael Granlund leads the team in total points since their break (4-4-8).  Not surprising, given that he is the team’s leading scorer this season (23-40-63).  It has been a career year for the five-year veteran, setting career-highs in goals (he had 13 last season), assists (he had 33 in 2013-2014), and points (he had 44 points last year).  What he has found this season is a shooter’s touch.  Coming into this season he had 31 career goals on 399 shots (7.8 percent).  And although he did improve from year to year in each of his first four seasons, he made quite a leap this year.  With 23 goals on 148 shots, his 15.5 shooting percentage is 13^th in the league among players with at least 125 shots on goal.  And when he’s active, so seem the Wild.  In games in which he recorded four or more shots on goal, the Wild are 10-2-0.  Granlund is 2-3-5, plus-1, in six career games against the Caps.

Devan Dubnyk might be on a short list of Vezina Trophy contenders as the league’s top goalie, but it did not make him immune to what happened on Sunday against the Chicago Blackhawks.  After getting the win in 20 minutes of relief of Darcy Kuemper in a 7-4 win over Florida last Friday, Dubnyk got the start against the Blackhawks on Sunday.  He lasted less than five minutes.  Two shot, two Chicago goals, and Dubnyk got the hood from head coach Bruce Boudreau 4:38 into the contest.  No, it was not the shortest time on ice of any goalie in any game in Wild history, but he couldsee it from there.  Still, Dubnyk leads the league’s goalies in wins (36, tied with Columbus’ Sergei Bobrovsky), is third in goals against average (2.07), is second in save percentage (.931), is tied for fifth in shutouts, and is sixth in minutes (3,103).  If Dubnyk gets the call in this game and wins, it will set a new career high in wins.  It will not be easy, based on his history.  Dubnyk is 2-3-0, 3.24, .891 in five career appearances against the Caps.

1.  The Wild have had the better of the underlying numbers since their break, sporting a 54.06 SAT percentage in their eight games since the hiatus (numbers from NHL.com) and a 54.5 percent in shots on goal for/shots on goal against.  The problem is in efficiency.  The Wild are shooting at 8.8 percent in those games, while their opponents are shooting at 10.5 percent.

2.  Special teams have been uneven for the Wild since their break, their power play barely registering at 2-for-23 (8.8 percent) and 0-for-their-last-9 over four games (those opportunities are infrequent, too).  On the other side, the penalty kill is 19-for-21 (90.5 percent) and hasn’t faced more than three shorthanded situations in their last five games (12 in all).

3.  One might think that a team as high in the standings as the Wild would be adept at locking down wins when leading late in games, but they have left some points on the table when leading after two periods.  They rank 15^th in winning percentage (.848) when leading after 40 minutes (28-3-2).

4.  Minnesota is tied for the league lead in goals scored at 5-on-5 (154, tied with Pittsburgh).  Four-on-four is a different story.  The Wild scored one goal in that situation this season.

5.  The Wild have the third-best penalty differential at 5-on-5 in the league (plus-31, tied with Philadelphia; go figure).  Only Detroit (plus-41) and Pittsburgh (plus-33) are better (numbers from Corsica.hockey).

1.  Since February 1^st, 434 skaters in the NHL have an even strength goal.  Alex Ovechkin is not one of them.

2.  No Capital has as many as ten points in 12 games since the February break.  Nicklas Backstrom (4-4-8) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (3-5-8) lead the team in points.

3.  Since the February break, which Capital leads the team in scoring the first goal of the game?  If you said Jakub Vrana and Tom Wilson (twice apiece), buy a lottery ticket.

4.  The Capitals do not have a penalty shot attempt this season. 

5.  Washington no longer has the worst penalty differential at 5-on-5, but they’re in the same zip code.  Their minus-35 is better that only the Colorado Avalanche (minus-40).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Minnesota:  Martin Hanzal

Being strong down the middle is generally thought to be a prerequisite to success in the NHL, and the Minnesota Wild tried to improve on their center depth with the acquisition of Martin Hanzal from the Arizona Coyotes at the trading deadline.  Much like the Caps’ acquisition of defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk at the trading deadline, obtaining Hanzal served, if nothing else, the purpose of keeping him away from other contenders.  What Hanzal is, is a solid half-point-per-game player who brings size (6/’6”, 225) and an ability to play defense.   He has had a bit of a time finding his stride in Minnesota, though.  In seven games since joining the Wild he has yet to record a goal (four assists) and is a minus-2.  Even faceoffs, a solid part of his game (over 54 percent in each of the last five seasons, including his time with Arizona this year), are underwhelming so far (47.3 percent).  He does get a wide range of responsibilities, being one of four Wild forwards averaging more than one minute of ice time per game on both power plays and penalty kills since his arrival.  However, he did miss Sunday’s game against Chicago with an illness and is listed as day-to-day.  Hanzal is 1-3-4, plus-1, in seven career games against Washington.

Washington: T.J. Oshie

Part of the problem with the Caps since their February break has been injuries.  T.J. Oshie, for instance, has appeared in just eight of 12 games since the break, and while his production in those games (3-5-8, tied for second in goals and tied for fourth in points on the club) is roughly in line with his production before the break, he, like much of the team, seems about five degrees off center.  He is a minus-2 since the break (he was plus-25 before it) and has six penalty minutes in eight games (he had 26 in 47 games before the break).  The odd part of his post-break performance is that in three games in which he has goals, the Caps lost two of them, the only two times this season the Caps lost games in regulation when he scored a goal (19-2-1).  This could be a game for Oshie to break out.  In his last 14 home games he is 9-8-17, plus-14.  He has four goals in his last four home contests.  Oshie is 7-10-17, plus-3, in 23 career games against Minnesota.

In the end…

This game is, at this point, less a potential preview of a Stanley Cup final and more a study in which team can right itself quicker from their break.  Both clubs have seen their momentum before their respective breaks slammed to a halt and are at risk of falling from the top spot in their conference standings (for the Caps, that might be true by the time puck drops on this game).  How these teams got into their predicaments are a little bit different.  The Wild have been uncharacteristically leaky on defense (2.78 goals allowed per game since their break), while the Caps have lost their compass in finding the back of the net (2.17 goals per game).  It is a game of the moveable object meeting the resistible force.  

Capitals 3 – Wild 2

Washington Capitals: That Was The Week That Was -- Week 22

It took 22 weeks, but it finally happened.  The Washington Capitals had a bad week.  Not awful, as we will see in a moment, but there is only so much sugar available to coat an 0-3-0 week, the first time the Caps went without a point in a week of more than one game since week 23 of the 2014-2015 season and the first time they went three games in a week without a point since Week 4 of the 2014-2015 season, breaking a streak of 70 straight weeks of hockey without losing all three games in regulation in a week.

Record: 0-3-0

It is a good thing the Caps banked standings points over their first 21 weeks, because in Week 22 they faced two storm fronts.  One, the Dallas Stars, represented a team that certainly had the Caps’ number on Verizon Center ice.  Going into their contest last Monday, the Caps had not beaten the Stars on home ice since a 4-3 win on November 30, 2006.  The five-game losing streak (0-4-1) became six with the 4-2- loss.  Then there was the annual late-winter trip to the west coast.  The Caps had not beaten the San Jose Sharks in regulation time in San Jose since a 4-2 win on October 30, 1993, and they had just two wins (both in extra time) in 15 tries since then.  The 4-2 loss to the Sharks on Thursday made it 2-13-0, with one tie, since that last regulation win.  Then there were the Los Angeles Kings.  The Caps had not won in Tinsel Town since a 3-2 win over the Kings on December 14, 2005.  Their 0-4-2 record in the six games following that win became 0-5-2 when they lost to the Kings, 4-2 to close the week.

Offense: 2.00/game (season: 3.21 /game; rank: 3rd)

Two, two, and two.  The three games with two goals in each extended the streak of two-goal games to four and to five the streak of games with two or fewer goals scored.  In Week 22 the Caps had just one multiple-goal scorer (T.J. Oshie) and one player with three points (Kevin Shattenkirk).  Nicklas Backstrom was the only player to record a goal and an assist (1-1-2). Conspicuous by his absence from the points record was Alex Ovechkin, who is just 0-1-1 over his last eight games and has not scored a goal in nine contests.  He does not have an even strength goal in 17 consecutive games.  This qualifies among the driest spells of his career.

As a whole, the Caps did not lack for launching shots on net.  They averaged 57.74 shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, more than their season average (56.09; numbers from Corsica.hockey).  Getting those shot attempts to the net was the problem.  Washington averaged 27.04 shots on goal per 60 5-on-5 minutes, compared to their season average of 29.39.  It was no so much the 8.4 percent shooting percentage for the week that did the Caps in at 5-on-5, it was the lack of shots on goal on which that percentage was based.

Defense: 4.00/game (season: 2.12 /game; rank: 1st)

The Caps give up two goals in three games in Week 21 and won three games.  In Week 22 they allowed 12 goals in three games – four in each contest – and lost three games.   It was not as bad as all that on defense, though.  The Caps held the three opponents to a total of 68 shots on goal, the first time they held opponents to fewer than 25 shots on goal in a month (they held four straight opponents to fewer than 25 shots, February 7-18).

It was even better in limiting attempts.  The Caps allowed the three opponents just 47.20 shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, far below their 53.46 per 60 minute average for the season.  Shots on goal followed the same pattern, allowing just 22.91 shots per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 compared to the 27.90 shot attempts per 60 5-on-5 minutes for the season (numbers from Corsica.hockey). It ended up being a bit of a wasted effort, though, with the Caps allowing eight 5-on-5 goals for the week and finishing minus-three in goals for and against at fives.

Goaltending: 3.41 / .848 (season:  2.01 / .927 / 11 shutouts)

It was not a good week overall for the Caps in net.  Twelve goals allowed on 68 shots on goal makes for a difficult path for wins.  Braden Holtby had a particularly difficult week.  He was pulled after allowing three goals on 11 shots in 25 minutes of work against Dallas to open the week, and then he allowed four on 24 shots in the 4-2 loss to San Jose in the middle game of the week.  It was quite a slip on Holtby’s part, who in his previous six appearances before Week 22 was 5-0-1, 0.98, .963, with one shutout.

Philipp Grubauer had a better time of it in less than ideal circumstances, stopping all ten shots he faced in relief of Holtby against Dallas, but allowing three goals on 21 shots in the 4-2 loss to the Kings to end the week.  He had a respectable 1.96 goals against average in the limited duty, but the .903 save percentage was not especially impressive.  Grubauer is in a bit of a lull, too.  In his last two full-game appearances he stopped just 39 of 46 shots (.848 save percentage).

Power Play: 1-for-12 / 8.3 percent (season:  21.3 percent; rank: 8th)

The lackluster week did not spare the power play.  The 8.3 percent week was the worst for a week with more than one game played since Week 12, when the Caps went 0-for-12.  And even with that it was an uneven week.  The Caps shot in some bad luck against Dallas on the man advantage, recording 14 shots on goal in 7:34 of power play time without a goal to show for it.  They went 0-for-7 against the Sharks in the middle game of the week in 10 minutes, against without anything to show for it.  Then, against Los Angeles, they scored a goal on their only power play shot, courtesy of Jakub Vrana.  It was Vrana’s second power play goal in five games, more than Alex Ovechkin has had in his last 13 contests.

Speaking of Ovechkin, he was 0-for-5 shooting on the man advantage for the week, but he had four of those shots in the first game of the week, against Dallas.  Overall, the Caps had one goal on 22 shots in 21:39 of power play ice time.  They managed shots on goal and had next to nothing to show for it.

Penalty Killing: 9-for-13 / 69.2 percent (season: 84.0 percent; rank: 6th)

The power play struggles carried over to the other side of special teams.  Not that the Caps have been air tight killing penalties lately, but the 69.2 percent week was their worst in a multi-game week since Week 17, their second-worst week of the season in a multi-game week since Week 1.  It is part of a longer slide in penalty killing that has extended over the past seven weeks, over which the Caps are 53-for-67 (79.3 percent).

The Caps did shutout the Stars on the power play to open the week, but they allowed San Jose and Los Angeles to score two goals apiece on the man advantage.  It made it three times in four games that the Caps allowed an opponent two power play goals on the road.  Overall, the Caps allowed the three opponents four power play goals on 17 shots in 19:08 of shorthanded ice time.

Faceoffs: 106-181 / 58.6 percent (season: 50.3 percent; rank: 12th)

If there was one area in which the Caps did well in Week 22, it was in the faceoff circle.  Small victories.  The Caps won all three games and all three zones for the week.  In fact, the only “losing” point of the week was being below 50 percent in the defensive zone against San Jose (6-for-14). 

Five Caps took ten or more draws for the week, and all of them finished at 50 percent or better.  T.J. Oshie topped the five at 68.8 percent (11-for-16).  Jay Beagle (18-for-30/60.0 percent), Nicklas Backstrom (31-for-52/59.6 percent), and Lars Eller (24-for-43/55.8 percent) were over the 50 percent mark for the week, and even Evgeny Kuznetsov hit the 50 percent mark (15-for-30).

Goals by Period:

Nine periods for the week, and the Caps didn’t win any of them.  They split goals in four of the nine periods and lost the other five.  Overall they did not so much as break even in any period, finishing with the rare minus in goal differential over all three periods for an entire week.  The Caps did manage to maintain their plus-30 or better goal differential in the first (plus-38) and third (plus-30) periods, but the second period (even for the season) remains something of a mystery.

In the end…

By the standards this club has set for it over the past two seasons, Week 22 was about as bad as it gets, even with the annual death march through California and they mysterious inability to beat Dallas on their own ice sheet.  But there was a ray of sunshine in it in that the Caps had decent possession statistics.  They had the better of 5-on-5 shot attempts, and maintaining that going forward should yield better results than what they saw this week. 

All that aside, the Caps had better find a way to translate good underlying production numbers into better performance numbers like goals scored and goals prevented.  They are embarking on a four-game week against teams that pose a formidable challenge, from the last game in the California trip against Anaheim to a pair of Central Division powerhouses in Minnesota and Nashville, to a week-ending contest against a Tampa Bay team struggling to reach the postseason.  Week 21 saw the Caps’ lead in the league standings dwindle to a single point over the Pittsburgh Penguins, and if the Caps are to keep from dropping out of that top spot in the standings for the first time in two months, they will have to put Week 21 behind them quickly.

Three Stars of the Week:

• First Star: T.J. Oshie (2-0-2, minus-2, 11-for-16 on faceoffs, six hits, three blocked shots)
• Second Star: Kevin Shattenkirk (0-3-3, even, points in all three games, four hits, three blocked shots)
• Third Star: Nicklas Backstrom (1-1-2, minus-1, 31-for-52 on faceoffs)

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 68: Washington Capitals at Anaheim Ducks, March 12th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their three-game California road trip hoping to salvage one win out of the journey when they face the Anaheim Ducks on Sunday night.  Washington, having dropped three in a row going back to their last home game, a loss to the Dallas Stars, have not lost four in a row since January 2015 and have not lost four in a row in regulation time since Games 8-11 of the 2014-2015 season (part of what would be a five-game losing streak).

The Ducks have been treading water over the past six weeks or so.  Since February 1^st they are 7-8-1.  While the Ducks slipped from one point behind the San Jose Sharks in the Pacific Division to seven points behind through Friday’s games over that span, the Ducks are still in third place in the division and are fifth in the Western Conference. 

In the 16 games since February 1^st, only one Duck is in double digits in points.  Ryan Getzlaf, the Ducks’ leading scorer this season (12-41-53) is 5-10-15 over those 16 games.  He scored those points in bunches with four multi-point games, two of them of the three-point variety.  If there is an odd quality to his scoring over this stretch it is that in the four games in which he scored goals, the Ducks lost three times (including a two-goal game against the Arizona Coyotes).  This is the tenth full season in a row (not counting his 57-game rookie season and the abbreviated 2012-2013 season) that Getzlaf topped the 50-point mark.  And, he seems well on his way to finishing the season with his eighth 60-point campaign in his career.  It is all part of a resume that makes Getzlaf a player who ranks fourth in assists (561) and ninth in the league in points (794) since he came into the league in 2005-2006.  Getzlaf is 5-9-14, plus-2, in 13 career games against the Caps.

Rickard Rakell leads the team in goals over their last 16 games (seven), adding to his team-leading goal total for the season (28).  He is the only duck to date to have topped the 20-goal mark.  While Rakell has been the finisher for this team, he has not been much in terms of setting up scores.  With a scoring line this season of 28-11-39, he and the New York Rangers’ Michael Grabner are the only players in the league with 25 or more goals and 15 or fewer assists.  Rakell is one of the more efficient shooters in the league this season.  Of 259 skaters recording at least 100 shots on goal, Rakell is fifth with a 20.3 shooting percentage.  And don’t let him get going on shots.  Six times this season he recorded five or more shots on goal, and in four of those occasions he recorded goals, three of those being two-goal games.  Rakell is 0-0-0, minus-1, in four career games against Washington.

Cam Fowler leads the Duck defensemen in scoring this season (11-22-33), but his point production has been off since February 1^st.   After going 11-16-27 in his first 52 games this season, he is 0-6-6 in 16 games since February 1^st.  The absence of goal scoring is something that doesn’t seem to matter when looking at the games this season in which he did record goals.  Anaheim is just 5-4-2 in games in which Fowler has goals this season.  Nevertheless, Fowler is a minutes-eater.  He has 34 games this season skating at least 25 minutes.  That ranks eighth in the league.  Fowler is 0-6-6, minus-9, in nine career games against the Capitals, that minus-9 being the worst he has over his career against any Eastern Conference team.

1.  Since February 1^st, the Ducks’ special teams have been very good and very bad.  The good is the penalty kill, which is 49-for-55 over those 16 games (89.1 percent, third in the league since February 1^st).  At the other end, the power play is an anemic 3-for-42 (7.1 percent, worst in the league over that span).

2.  The Ducks have had six players record more than 50 minutes in penalties this season, including one no longer with the team (Joseph Cramarossa logged 51 penalty minutes before being claimed off waivers by Vancouver): Jared Boll (80), Josh Manson (67), Kevin Bieksa  (61), Corey Perry (57), and Ryan Kesler (57).

3.  As befits a team that takes so many penalties, the Ducks are tied with the Winnipeg Jets for the most shorthanded situations faced this season (234, through Friday’s games).

4.  Trailing after two periods is no recipe for success in the NHL, but it has been particularly difficult for the Ducks to win in such situations.  Only the San Jose Sharks and Florida Panthers have fewer wins when trailing after two periods (one apiece) than the Ducks (two), and Anaheim has the fourth-worst winning percentage when trailing after 40 minutes (.071/2-19-7).

5.  Anaheim has trouble generating offensive pressure as reflected in shot attempts.  Their shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (54.70) ranks 20^th in the league.  On top of that, their Corsi shooting percentage is 3.88 percent, 19^th in the league (numbers from Corsica.hockey).  Not getting a lot of attempt and converting on comparatively few of them at fives is a combination that kills offensive production.

1.  The loss in Los Angeles on Saturday night was the Caps’ tenth road loss in regulation time this season, matching the total they had in all of the 2015-2016 season.

2.  The Caps, who lead the league in wins when scoring first, lost both games of this road trip having scored the game’s first goal.  They have dropped into second place in the league in winning percentage when scoring first (.766/36-7-4).

3.  In 11 games since the February break, the Caps scored two or fewer goals nine times, averaging 2.18 goals per game.

4.  Penalty killing in road games has deteriorated for the Caps recently.  The two goals they allowed Los Angeles on six power plays makes it three times in the last four road games the Caps allowed two power play goals.  In those last four road games, Washington is just 13-for-19 killing penalties (68.4 percent).

5.  Washington has allowed four or more goals in three of their last four road games.  They allowed four or more goals in just five of their previous 29 road games.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Anaheim: Corey Perry

From 2005-2006 through last season, only four players in the NHL scored more goals than Corey Perry (330).  Only six players had more 30-goal seasons.  That was then, this is now.  Perry is in the midst of what might be his most disappointing season in a 12-year career, all of which has been spent with the Ducks.  Perry managed just seven goals in his first 30 games, and if anything, he is slowing down.  He has just five goals in his last 38 games, one in his last 12 contests.  His shooting efficiency has, by his career standards, been awful.  Before this season Perry was a 13.6 percent shooter, but this season he has just 12 goals on 181 shots (6.6 percent).  He has been particularly cold at home of late.  Perry has gone his last 17 home games without a goal, his last one coming back on December 11^th in a 5-1 win over the Ottawa Senators.  Perry is 6-8-14, minus-1, in 14 career games against the Caps.

Washington: Nicklas Backstrom

Nicklas Backstrom did not record a point against the Los Angeles Kings last night.  That makes two games in a row he did not post a point, and that is an uncommon occurrence for Backstrom this season.  Only six times in 67 games has Backstrom gone two of more games in a row without a point, and, with the Ducks on tap for Sunday night, he has not gone three games without a point since Games 11-13 in early November.   Backstrom getting on the score sheet matters for the Caps.  He has points in 41 of 67 games this season, and in those games the Caps are 31-5-5.  They are just 13-11-2 when Backstrom is held off the score sheet.  Backstrom’s history in California is a bit odd.  In 18 games played on the west coast in his career against San Jose, Los Angeles, and Anaheim, he is roughly a point a game player (4-12-16), but he is also a minus-10 and has only three “plus” games in the bunch.  What he has been able to do is put up points in Anaheim.  In five career games against the Ducks in Anaheim, Backstrom is 1-6-7, even, with three multi-point games in that group.  Overall, he is 5-10-15, even, in 11 career games against the Ducks.

In the end…

There is “playing well,” and there are the rewards.  Not every time does the former beget the latter, and it is tempting to say that last night was such a case for the Caps in Los Angeles.  The Caps did out-attempt the Kings substantially at 5-on-5, topping Los Angeles by a 35-28 margin (55.6 percent Corsi-for).  But converting those attempts into shots  was a less successful enterprise, the Kings recording 15 shots at 5-on-5 to 13 for the Caps.  It translated into a 3-1 advantage in goals for the Kings at fives.  It had the look of a team playing well, but not well enough against a team scrambling to reach the postseason (the Kings are three points out of a playoff spot).

Anaheim is not in as dire a situation as the Kings, but the Caps are not playing at a consistently efficient level, either.  The challenge here is to try to get an offense untracked against a good defensive team (seventh in scoring defense) and, should they get a lead, to hold and expand on a lead.  That’s the sort of game management fundamental that has eluded the Caps lately and one they need to refresh as the playoffs approach.

Capitals 4 – Ducks 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 67: Washington Capitals at Los Angeles Kings, March 11th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

After stumbling in the first game of their three-game California road trip, a 4-2 loss to the San Jose Sharks, the Washington Capitals head south for a back-to-back set of games in Southern California. First up is a visit to Staples Center and the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday night.

The loss to the Sharks made it just the third time this season that the Caps lost consecutive games in regulation time. They have not lost three games in regulation since Games 61-63 of the 2014-2015 season when they lost to Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Carolina in succession. That makes 167 games since the Caps lost three consecutive games in regulation time.

As for the Kings, they come into this game on a slide of poor timing. Starting with their 5-0 loss to the Caps on February 5th, Los Angeles is just 5-7-2 in their last 14 games. Offense has been an issue over that span, scoring just 31 goals (2.21 per game), six of them in a 6-3 win over the Florida Panthers on February 9th. Defense has been every bit as much an issue with the club allowing an uncharacteristically high 43 goals (3.07 per game) in that 14-game stretch.

While the Kings are not a prolific offensive club, the dropoff in scoring should nonetheless be a concern. And that points right away to their top goal-scorer, Jeff Carter. Goal scorers can be a streaky species, and Carter is no exception. He happens to be in an inopportune cold spell, having scored just three goals in this 14-game stretch (one in his last 11 games) after recording 13 goals in the 21 games before that. And as Carter scores, so score the Kings as far as standings points go. Los Angeles is 18-2-3 in the 23 games in which Carter recorded a goal this season, 14-26-3 in the games he did not. The Kings have yet to lose a game in regulation this season when he scores on home ice, going 11-0-1. Carter is 11-13-24, plus-1 in 29 career games against Washington.

Only one other King has cleared the 20-goal mark this season – Tanner Pearson. Just in his fourth season in the NHL (30th overall pick in the 2012 entry draft), Pearson is a player who just keep improving. He has improved his goal scoring from year-to-year (from three to 12 to 15 to 22 this season), and points (from 7 to 16 to 36 to-40 this year). He seems certain to post a career-best in assists (he has 18, three short of the 21 he had last season). He has been very productive of late, despite the team’s overall sluggishness. In the Kings’ last 14 games he is 7-7-14, plus-1. He has a couple of odd splits among his splits this season. Both at home and on the road he is 11-9-20. And, he has 12 goals in 32 wins, 10 in 32 regulation and extra time losses; the difference is in setting up others to score. He has 15 assists in 32 wins but just three in 32 regulation and extra time losses. In five career games against the Caps, Pearson is 0-2-2, minus-3.

Quick, who leads the Kings’ defensemen in scoring? OK, it’s not a trick question; the answer is Drew Doughty. But Alec Martinez is just four points (33) behind Doughty. And all that will well and good, but there is that minus-15 sticking out like a sore thumb (which pairs nicely with Jake Muzzin’s minus-20, making them the worst pair on the club in plus-minus by far). Still, Martinex has quietly become a steady and reliable source of scoring from the blue line. His 33 points this season is a career high, topping last year’s 31 points, which topped the previous year’s 22 points. He has a career best in assists (25), and with a late push he could match or surpass his career best in goals (11; he has eight at the moment). Martinez certainly loves home cooking more than take out on the road. He is 6-17-23, even, in 31 home games, but just 2-8-10, minus-15, in 35 road games. Martinez is 0-2-2, minus-1, in eight career games against the Caps.

But about that 14-game slide on which Los Angeles finds themselves…

1.  They have been shut out three times in that span and held to a single goal on two other occasions, but all three shutouts and one of the one-goal efforts came in the first eight games of that period. Over their last six games they have 17 goals, a much more respectable total.

2.  Their special teams have been superb. The power play is 10-for-40 (25.0 percent), while the penalty killers are 30-for-32 (93.8 percent) for a special teams index of 118.8. If you are thinking, “not sustainable,” chances are you are right.

3.  On the other hand, their even strength goal ratio has been nothing short of awful. They have been outscored, 40-20, at evens over those 14 games.

4.  The Kings hold a whopping 460-379 shots on goal advantage over those 14 games. Nine times in that span did they outshoot their opponent, five times by more than ten shots and twice by more than 20. Oddly enough, in both instances when they enjoyed a 20+ shot advantage over an opponent, they lost. They were plus-22 in shots in a 5-3 loss to the Arizona Coyotes on February 16th, and they were plus-23 in a 4-3 loss to the Vancouver Canucks on March 4th.

5.  Despite a reputation and a big and brawny team, they played within the rules over those 14 games, facing only 32 shorthanded situations (2.29 per game) while enjoying 40 power plays of their own (2.86 per game).

1.  Daniel Winnik’s next goal will be his tenth, which would give the Caps 11 players with ten or more goals this season. They had only eight last season.

2.  The Caps have 17 players at plus-10 or better. Last season they had 11. Seven players are plus-20 or better. Last season there were two.

3.  The next power play points for T.J. Oshie and Matt Niskanen will be their tenth, which would give the Caps seven players with ten or more power play points this season. That would equal the number they had last season.

4.  Sixteen different players have game-winning goals. Last year’s club had 18. Tom Wilson? Dmitry Orlov? Kevin Shattenkirk? Anybody?

5.  No forward for the Caps is averaging more than 19 minutes a game this season (Alex Ovechkin: 18:22). Ovechkin averaged more than 20 last season (20:18), and three forwards averaged more than the 18:22 Ovechkin averages this season (Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom with 19:10, and T.J. Oshie with 18:57). Balance among the lines has cut down that first line burden.

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Los Angeles: Jonathan Quick

Jonathan Quick has had one of those season that started out as one he might want to forget but might be one he’ll end up remembering more fondly. He opened the season in goal for the Kings but last just one period on Opening Night, sustaining a groin injury that would keep him out for 59 games. He returned to the lineup on February 25th, and it would appear he is well. Since his return he is 3-0-1 (an overtime loss to the Minnesota Wild), 2.41, .918, holding three of the four opponents to two or fewer goals. Quick, while not an appreciably more efficient goaltender on home ice over his career (a .916 save percentage versus .915 on the road), has been a more effective one (2.11 goals against average versus 2.44 on the road, a product of facing lower shot volumes). His career numbers against the Caps are consistent with his career totals overall – 6-2-0, 2.44, .916.

Washington: Alex Ovechkin

Since scoring goals in three straight games to close January and open February, Alex Ovechkin has two goals in 15 games. In the 13 games in which he did not record a goal, the Caps are 9-4-1, which says something about the depth of the club, but it has a whiff of living on the edge, too. It’s like a high performance aircraft going into a stall and plummeting back to earth. You know that you have a lot of power in those engines, but you really don’t want to test the proposition of waiting until the last second to relight them. The question is becoming one of whether Ovechkin, if he is conserving energy in an effort to pace himself, can re-light that engine as we head into the daylight savings time portion of the schedule. The other obvious explanation of his recent slump, that there is an injury of which nothing is being spoken, is something Capitals Nation does not want to contemplate. Let’s go with “he’s pacing himself.” Ovechkin is 5-8-13, minus-3, in 14 career games against Los Angeles.

In the end…

The good news, one supposes, is that the Caps will not fall out of first place in the league standings by the time their west coast trip is over, no matter what happens in their last two games of the trip. But still, this is not a team firing on all cylinders since the February break, as we noted elsewhere.  It has been a team that is sluggish across its forward lines and defensive pairs in putting together a lackluster 5-4-1 record since the break. One gets the impression the Caps are a team searching for that spark they had before the break and feeling a bit confused that they haven’t found it.  Part of working through a long regular season is managing those uncomfortable times and making them as brief as possible. This might not be the easiest opponent against which to do that.

Capitals 3 – Kings 2

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 66: Washington Capitals at San Jose Sharks, March 9th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

If it’s Mid-March, it’s time to heed the advice of Horace Greeley and “go west, young man” if you are a Washington Capital. The Caps head to the left coast this week for the annual California roll through San Jose, Anaheim, and Los Angeles. On Thursday night they open the visit by facing off with the Sharks in San Jose.

Most Caps fans know by now that Washington has not won a game in regulation in San Jose since October 30, 1993. “Dreamlover” by Mariah Carey was the top single that week. “The Bridges of Madison County” by Robert James Waller was the best-selling book in fiction, while “Private Parts” by Howard Stern topped the non-fiction book list. “The Nightmare Before Christmas” was the number one movie.

It need not be said that games in San Jose have had a nightmarish quality for the Caps. Sure, they have won twice there since 1993 (2-12-0 with one tie overall), both in extra time (a 3-2 Gimmick win in 2014 and a 5-4 overtime win in 2015), but for the most part, the Caps know the way to San Jose; they just don’t know how to win once they get there. Their all-time record there is 5-12-0 with one tie.

As for the Sharks, they are quietly assembling quite a season. They have the seventh-best record in the league (39-19-7/85 points) and have won four of their last five games going into this contest with the Caps. Stinginess on defense has been their calling card lately. Only once in their last ten games have they allowed more than three goals, and only twice have they allowed more than two. They allowed just 20 goals in those ten games, six of them in a 6-5 overtime loss to the Florida Panthers on February 15th.

The stinginess is due in no small part to goaltender Martin Jones. Only four times in 53 appearances this season has he allowed more than three goals in a game, and since the last time he did that (he allowed all six goals in the loss in the 6-5 overtime loss to Florida), he has stopped 106 of 112 shots (.946 save percentage) in compiling a 2-1-1 record over four games. Since taking on the full time goaltending duties with the Sharks last season after being traded there by the Boston Bruins (four days after being traded to Boston by the Los Angeles Kings), Jones has won more games in goal than any netminder in the league (67, tied with Devan Dubnyk) except for the Caps’ Braden Holtby (82). And here is your odd Martin Jones fact. No netminder has played more minutes over the last two seasons than Jones (6,892), and he has no penalty minutes. The next highest ranked goalie in minutes played with no penalty minutes over the last two seasons is Tuukka Rask (6th in minutes played with 6,654). If the Caps score on this guy, they might want to save the puck. Jones is 3-0-, 0.67, .975, with two shutouts in three career appearances against Washington.

Moving out from the crease, there is Brent Burns, who is putting together quite a season of his own, but mostly at the other end of the ice. Although he has played in just 65 games to date, he has the 14th-highest point total for a defenseman (67) in the post-2004-2005 lockout period. His 27 goals is the second highest over the period (tied with his own total from last season), trailing only the 31 goals posted by then-Capital Mike Green in 2008-2009. He is on a pace to finish the season 34-50-84, which would be tops in goals and points in this era for defensemen. He is without a point in his last two games, but that comes after a seven-game points streak (5-5-10, plus-10). In 13 career games against the Caps, Burns is 6-6-12, plus-2.

Joe Thornton has always been much more a set-up guy than a call-my-own-number goal scorer, but his goal scoring has tumbled dramatically this season. He has five goals through 65 games, and that 0.08 goals per game production is his lowest over a season since his rookie year in Boston in 1997-1998 (0.05 on three goals in 55 games). This comes off a 19-goal season, more than he had in any season since he recorded 21 goals in 2010-2011. What might be more of a concern, though, is his assists are down. From his rookie season through last year, Thornton had more assists than anyone, and it wasn’t close (964 assists to 752 for Jaromir Jagr). With 36 helpers in 65 games so far this season, Thornton is on a pace to finish with the fewest assists he had in a full season (45) since he had 25 in 81 games in his first full season with Boston in 1998-1999. It would be the fewest he ever had in a full season with the Sharks. He was showing signs of increasing his production, going 2-4-6 over a five-game stretch last month, but he is 0-2-2 in his last six games, one of those assists being the 1,000th of his career, coming on an empty net goal that would become the game-winner against Winnipeg last Monday. Thornton is 16-29-45, plus-11, in 42 career games against the Capitals.

1.  San Jose just hums along. Since the start of the new calendar year they are tied for third in points earned (38, with Chicago) and sixth in fewest goals allowed, but they are not doing it with special teams. San Jose is just 22nd in power play conversions (15.8 percent) and 26th on the penalty kill (76.8 percent).

2.  Those numbers do not get any better on home ice. The Sharks have just the ninth best record in teams of points earned on home ice since January 1st (18, with four other teams), they are 29th in home power play efficiency (8.3 percent, ahead of only the 5.9 percent New York Rangers), and their home penalty kill is ranked 26th (75.8 percent).

3.  San Jose is not a particularly explosive offense. Only three teams have scored five goals in a game fewer times than the Sharks (5) this season : Arizona (4), New Jersey (4), and Colorado (3).

4.  On the other hand, only two teams have had more games allowing two or fewer goals than the Sharks (38): Washington (39) and Columbus (40). And this might be key…San Jose has lost just once in regulation this season when allowing two or fewer goals (34-1-3). Pittsburgh is the only team in the league that has not lost a game in regulation when allowing two or fewer goals (28-0-4).

5.  Adjusted for score, zone, and venue, San Jose is fifth in the league in Corsi-for at 5-on-5 (51.63 percent). They have the second-best Corsi-SV% this season (.965, to Washington’s .969; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

1.  The Caps are one of three teams with two players having 30 or more points since the start of the calendar year. Nicklas Backstrom (37, tied for the league lead with Boston’s Brad Marchand) and Evgeny Kuznetsov (32) have done it for the Caps. Marchand and Patrice Bergeron (31) did it for Boston; Patrick Kane (33) and Jonathan Toews (30) have done it for Chicago.

2.  Justin Williams has been a very efficient player. Despite averaging the third lowest amount of ice time in his career (15:37) and the lowest since the 2001-2002 season with Philadelphia (14:27), he is having his best shooting season, percentage-wise (14.4 percent), better than the 12.8 percent he had in 82 games with Carolina in 2006-2007.

3.  Of the top-ten players in plus-minus since January 1st, the Caps have eight of them (Orpik, Connolly, Alzner, Orlov, Eller, Kuznetsov, Carlson, Williams). If you count ties at the bottom of the top ten, the Caps have nine of the top-12 (add in Matt Niskanen).

4.  If you want to compare defensemen, there are those 27 goals Brent Burns has for San Jose. “Defensemen,” as in “all of them,” have 20 for the Caps.

5.  The Caps are 15-1-0 at home in 2017, but their road record is a lot more pedestrian. They have 18 points since January 1st (tied with Edmonton for seventh-best in the league). Their special teams are uneven, the power play tied for second with Toronto on the road since January 1st (28.2 percent), while the penalty kill is tied for 18th with Pittsburgh (78.0 percent).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

San Jose: Marc-Edouard Vlasic

Marc-Edouard Vlasic has put together a nice career with the San Jose Sharks. The 2005 second round draft pick ranks tenth among active defensemen in games played since he came into the league in 2006-2007 (797) and only one of three in the top ten to do it having played for just one team in their career (Chicago’s Brent Seabrook and Duncan Keith are the others). He has not been a particularly prolific offensive player (his 247 career points ranks 40th among active defensemen), but with a generally successful Sharks team, his plus-minus reflects that success (ranked third in that group at plus-127, behind Keith and Zdeno Chara). His offense this season has been in line with his career numbers in goals, assists, and points, but his plus-2 is the lowest he has had since he was minus-12 for the 2007-2008 Sharks. He has one point (an assist) in his last seven games and is even over that span. In 14 career games against Washington, Vlasic is 3-3-6, plus-8.

Washington: Kevin Shattenkirk

It has only been four games, and it is only 31 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time, but Kevin Shattenkirk and Brooks Orpik have made a nice pair at 5-on-5 with a Corsi-for of 55.00 percent, the fourth-best of any defensive pairing for the Caps with that many 5-on-5 minutes played together (numbers from Corsica.hockey). On his own he is at 53.51 percent, second only to Matt Niskanen (54.16 percent) among Caps defensemen. This suggests that he is doing the fundamental things to contribute to success, even if his early numbers do not sparkle (0-2-2, minus-2 in four games). Of particular importance to this game and this week is that Shattenkirk has done quite well against the California teams, going a combined 8-24-32 in 57 career games against Anaheim, Los Angeles, and San Jose. He is 5-11-16, even, in 20 career games against the Sharks. Oh, and pondering Shattenkirk is a chance to ask if Shattenkirk and comic Jay Mohr were twins separated at birth…

In the end…

The Caps have built a lead in the league standings this season, but it has not been a product of their performance on the road. It is not a bad record, mind you, but their 17 wins ranks tied for ninth (with Ottawa and Boston), and their 40 standings points is tied for seventh (with Calgary, Montreal, and Boston). Going out to California is never an easy chore for this, or any other Eastern Conference team, for that matter, but this is a chance to take stock on just how far this team has come and how much further they have to go to raise confidence that they can go deep in the postseason. The Caps get what is probably the most difficult of the three opponents first in terms of the regrettable history of success (or lack of it) and the quality of the team they will face. Winning will take being at the top of their game, something we haven’t seen as much of from the Caps this month as we did last.

Capital 3 – Sharks 2

A NO-Point Night -- Game 65: Dallas Stars 4 - Washington Capitals 2

The Washington Capitals saw a few fine streaks come to an end because they could not stop another one in a 4-2 loss to the Dallas Stars on Monday night at Verizon Center.  Washington, winners of three straight overall, saw its 15-game home winning streak come to an end, and goaltender Braden Holtby saw his personal 21-decision streak without suffering a loss in regulation (19-0-2) come to an end.  For the Stars it was their sixth straight win against the Caps at Verizon Center.

Things got off to a bad start for the Caps when the Stars scored less than two minutes into the contest.  After Holtby stopped Patrick Sharp with his left pad at the doorstep, the puck ended up behind the net where Sharp fished it out.  As Sharp was trying to work the puck back in front, Brooks Orpik was tied up with Devin Shore in the Caps’ goal crease.   Shore tumbled into Holtby, preventing him from getting across to his right to cover the puck lying in the blue paint.  With Sharp and Shore whacking at it, Shore finally edged it across the goal line, and after a coach’s challenge for goaltender interference, the goal was upheld just 1:48 into the game. 

The score remained 1-0 into the second period when Dallas scored a pair in short order early in the period.  Radek Faksa intercepted an attempted clear up the middle by Nicklas Backstrom and snapped the puck past Holtby 4:04 into the period.  Less than two minutes later, Jason Spezza ended Holtby’s night when, off another giveaway in the defensive end, he one-timed a feed from Jamie Benn past Holtby’s right pad.  With just 5:58 gone in the second period, it was 3-0, Stars.

Backstrom got one back for the Caps when he started and ended a play.  After Backstrom won a faceoff to the right of goalie Kari Lehtonen, the Caps worked the puck around the offensive zone to the right point.  Kevin Shattenkirk sent the puck to the net, where Backstrom redirected it past Lehtonen at the 15:52 mark to make it a 3-1 game. 

Mid-way through the third period, T.J. Oshie got the Caps within a goal. Oshie left the puck for Karl Alzner at the right point, and Alzner circled out with it to the middle of the ice.  He threaded a pass between two Stars to Oshie cutting through the right wing circle.  Oshie carried the puck between the hash marks, then snapped a backhand over Lehtonen’s glove and off the crossbar into the net at the 12:26 mark to make it 3-2, Stars.

That would be as close as the Caps would get, though. Sharp scored an empty netter with 1:28 to go to put the game out of reach for the Caps and end their franchise-best home winning streak, 4-2.

Other stuff…

-- It was the first loss at home in 2017, their first since a 2-1 Gimmick loss to the New Jersey Devils on December 29^th.  It was their first loss in regulation on home ice since a 2-1 loss to the Montreal Canadiens on December 17^th.

-- Nicklas Backstrom had a goal and an assist for his 17^th multi-point game of the season and 193^rd of  his career, third in club history behind Peter Bondra (208) and Alex Ovechkin (293).

-- Karl Alzner had an assist, giving him ten on the season, the sixth time he reached that mark in helpers in his career.

-- Alex Ovechkin tied a season high of nine shots on goal (he had nine in a 4-3 loss to the New York Islanders on December 29^th).  Oddly enough, only four of the last 18 games in which he recorded nine or more shots on goal did he find the back of the net.

-- For Ovechkin it was his seventh straight game without a goal, tying a season high (Games 20-26 in late-November/early-December).

-- Backstrom recorded a season high seven shots on goal.  It was just the fourth time in his career that he recorded seven or more shots on goal in a game and his first since he had seven in a 4-2 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning on April 7, 2013.

-- Of the team’s 19 blocked shots, the defense had 16 of them, led by Alzner with five.  Carlson, who blocked four shots, had four of his own shots blocked, most on the team.

-- Washington won 42 of 65 faceoffs (64.6 percent).

-- Sure, the Caps out-attempted the Stars, 58-40 at 5-on-5 for the game, but that margin was 18-16 for the Stars in the first period and just 37-33 for the Caps after 40 minutes.  The Caps, trying to erase a two-goal deficit to start the third period, had a 21-7 edge in the third period (numbers from Corsica.hockey).

-- Someday, Braden Holtby will earn a win against the last team in the league against which he has failed to do so, but in this one he never seemed to be quite on his game after the first, disputed goal.  Still, this was just the third time this season that Holtby logged fewer than 40 minutes in a game.  Quite impressive when you consider that it has happened six times to both Marc-Andre Fleury and Henrik Lundqvist this season, five times to Matt Murray and Tuukka Rask, four times to Ben Bishop and Pekka Rinne.

In the end…

The Caps started the game a bit passive, were bitten for it, and spent the rest of the game catching up.  The final numbers, especially in possession, looked more impressive than they were with one confounding exception.  They pummeled the Stars for 14 shots on goal in 7:34 of power play ice time, four of those shots off the stick of Alex Ovechkin, and another four from Jakub Vrana.  It is rare that the Caps would unleash that kind of fury and not reap any reward for it.  But, it happens.  Too bad it happened in the last home game before a west coast trip, where it will be a chore to maintain their lofty status atop the league standings.

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!! -- Game 65: Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals, March 6th

The Peerless Prognosticator is ON THE AIR!!!

The Washington Capitals wrap up their three-game home stand on Monday night when they host the Dallas Stars.  The Caps carry a three-game winning streak into this contest and wins in their last 15 games on home ice.  Dallas has been struggling of late, going 5-9-0 in their last 14 games.

When February dawned, the Stars were fighting for a playoff spot one point ahead of Nashville for fourth place in the Central Division and one point behind the Los Angeles Kings for the second wild card spot in the postseason.  Since then, however, the Stars have been unable to keep opponents’ pucks out of their net, allowing an average of 3.50 goals per game in the 14 games they have played since February 1^st.

Offense has not been much of a problem for the Stars in that span, averaging 2.92 goals per game since the start of February.  Jamie Benn has almost a quarter (10) of the goals scored by the team in that span (41).  The recent rush pushed Benn past the 20-goal mark for the season (24), the seventh time in seven full NHL seasons (not counting the abbreviated 2012-2013 season) he reached the 20-goal mark.  He is, however, off his pace of last season when he set a career high in goals (41).  Part of the slump is that his shooting frequency is off, averaging 2.72 shots per game this season compared to his 2.86 shots per game coming into this season and his 3.01 shots per game last season.  Benn has been an extremely reliable scorer for the last two months.  He has not gone consecutive games without a point since games 29 and 30 in mid-December.  In 31 games since then he is 16-22-38, even.  Benn is 4-6-10, plus-8, in ten career games against the Capitals.

Dallas lost a critical element in their 5-4 loss to the New York Islanders last Thursday when Antoine Roussel sustained a hand injury that will put him out for the remainder of the season.  It would be easy to think of Roussel as merely an agitator, a player inclined to test the boundaries of the rule book (he is second in the NHL in penalty minutes with 115).  However, he was second on the club in goals scored since February 1^st (five), and he was second among Stars’ forwards in average ice time on the penalty kill this season.  He was also third on the club in total goals scored this season (12) when he left the lineup.  The Stars have been struggling on the penalty kill all season, but his absence seems likely to make it even worse.

Roussel’s absence will either put added pressure on a player like Cody Eakin or provide such a player with an opportunity, depending on your point of view.  The former Capital, who has missed 22 games this season to a knee injury and a four-game suspension, recorded 35 or more points in each of the last three seasons entering this one.  The time missed has taken its toll, though, with Eakin sporting a meager 3-7-10, minus-8 scoring line in 43 games this season.  He had a brief scoring spurt recently, going 2-4-6 over a nine-game span in February, but he is without a point in his last four games.  Eakin is 1-2-3, even, in seven career games against the Caps.

1.  Dallas is a poor finisher.  No team has allowed more third period goals this season than the Stars (76) and only Detroit (11) and New Jersey (10) have allowed more overtime goals than Dallas (nine).

2.  Only Colorado has allowed more five-on-five goals (201) than Dallas (208). No team has allowed more goals at 4-on-5 (46).  They have allowed the most 3-on-5 goals this season (six).  Only St. Louis (13) has allowed more goals at 6-on-5 than the Stars (11).  The Stars are more or less a charitable foundation.

3.  Score on Dallas first, chance are you win.  Only Toronto (.185) and Colorado (.140) have worse winning percentages when allowing the first goal than Dallas (.222 on a 8-21-7 record).

4.  Dallas is one of those odd teams that has done better when being outshot by opponents (15-11-4) than they have when outshooting them (10-18-6).

5.  Dallas is one of four teams that allow more than 60 shot attempts per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time (60.18).  Arizona (63.43), the New York Islanders (61.61), and Toronto (60.27) are the others (numbers from Corsica.hockey).

1.  The Caps have eight players at plus-20 or better so far this season, two of them better than plus-30 (Brooks Orpik at plus-32, Dmitry Orlov at plus-31).  Last season, they had two players over plus-20 (Evgeny Kuznetsov was plus-27; Alex Ovechkin was plus-21).

2.  When Nicklas Backstrom scored in overtime to beat the Philadelphia Flyers on Saturday, it was his fourth game-winning goal of the season.  The Caps have 16 different players with game-winning goals.  They still have a little way to go to match last season’s 18 players with game-winners.

3.  Tom Wilson might lead the Caps in penalty minutes overall (78), but he is just fourth in minor penalties taken (19).  Last season he took 44 minor penalties.

4.  Who had Dmitry Orlov as the Capital on ice for the most 5-on-5 shot attempts so far this season (1,077)?  In terms of shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, among Caps appearing in at least 50 games, that would be Andre Burakovsky (64.30; numbers from Corsica.hockey).

5.  Only two teams have spent more time killing penalties this season than the Caps (377:57) – Anaheim (387:16) and Calgary (392:19).

The Peerless’ Players to Ponder

Dallas: Tyler Seguin

For Tyler Seguin, the 2016-2017 season resembles to a degree the season Alex Ovechkin had in 2013-2014.  You remember that one, the one in which Ovechkin had 51 goals and was a minus-35?  This season, Tyler Seguin is the only player in the league with at least 60 points (22-43-65) and a plus-minus of minus-15 or worse (minus-15).  That is due in no small part to the fact that Seguin is second in the league in power play points (26; Phil Kessel has 27), where Seguin could not earn a “plus.”  If he finishes the season with at least 80 points and a minus-20 or worse, he would be just the second player since the 2004-2005 lockout to pull off that double (Martin St. Louis had 83 points and was minus-25 in 2007-2008 for Tampa Bay).  Seguin is 2-12-14 in his last nine games, six of which were multi-point games.  He is 8-4-12, plus-3, in 18 career games against Washington.

Washington: Matt Niskanen

Matt Niskanen is the only defenseman in the Eastern Conference to average more than 22 minutes a game (22:23), record at least 30 points (4-31-35), and post a plus-minus of plus-20 or better (plus-23).  He has already posted his high point total for a season as a Capital, surpassing the 32 points he recorded last season.  At his current scoring pace he could challenge his career best of 46 points recorded in 2013-2014 with Pittsburgh.  His production has been more impressive of late.  In his last 20 games he is 2-15-17, plus-11, and the Caps are 15-3-2 in those contests.  The former first-round draft pick of the Stars (28^th overall in 2005, taken right after the Caps took Joe Finley with the 27^th pick) is 0-5-5, even, in nine career games against his former club.

In the end…

The Caps will be facing a team that has had its problems on the road lately.  Dallas’ 2-1 win in Florida against the Panthers last Saturday broke a six-game losing streak on the road, and the Stars are just 5-14-2 in their last 21 road contests.  What has sunk the Stars in those 21 road games is a poor penalty kill, one that was just 56-for-78 over that span (71.8 percent).  Not that the Stars have had much success killing penalties anywhere all season, theirs being the worst penalty kill in the league overall.  That’s a bad place to be for a club facing the league’s best power play since January 1^st (29.5 percent).

Capitals 4 – Stars 2